Bulls “Must” Follow Through

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA:  16,285
S&P 500:  1,940
Nasdaq  Comp. 4,697
Russell 2000:   1,132

Thursday:  Aug. 27, 2015   9:07 a.m.

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CONCLUSION: 

     I saw a lot of “wary” buying yesterday when it became obvious the market would not tank in the final hour of trading like it did Tuesday.

     The three-day, 11.4%  plunge (Thursday – Monday) rattled confidence, but it was mostly dismissed as a product of China’s woes and High Frequency Trading, etc..

     A Tuesday rebound was driven back, but yesterday’s rally succeeded, with the help from comments by N.Y. Fed’s William Dudley assuring the Street a September 16 bump in interest rates was unlikely.

     I would think the BIG money and institutions would be buying everything in sight, and paying up for stocks selling a big discounts from a week ago.

     TODAY:

     The Fed had its say, that issue is off the table and China’s efforts to stabilize its stock markets appears to be working, so  I would expect the BIG money and institutional investors to step in  and buy aggressively.

     If they don’t – LOOK OUT !

      RESISTANCE starts:  DJIA: 16,617; S&P 500: 1,980; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,790.

      There is absolutely no room for a rally failure today – none.    

 NEWS ENVIRONMENT    

        The following news was a contributor, though most of these issues have been with us for weeks/months.  A breakdown to  a “comfort level” was justified, but not that extreme.  The system is still broken.

-Chinese stock markets worst drop since 2007

-European stocks on verge of bear market (Germany’s DAX off 20%)

-U.S. stocks gapping down

-Commodities at 16-year low.

-currency meltdown

-No one has a clue when the Fed will bump interest rates, including the Fed

-Brent oil below $43, WTI oil below $38.

      NOTE: Some of the Street’s pundits are arguing that this market behavior is unreasonable since the U.S. economy is doing well, if not great. Bear in mind, the stock market has historically been an early warning signal for the beginning of a recession, leading by as little as two months and as much as  13 months.
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NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.
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  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but in a correction  into the fall.
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market reversed Tuesday after quick plunge and will be rebounding into resistance (again).
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Having broken major support levels, the market is probing for a level that discounts uncertainties and negatives.
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SUMMARY 

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ?     Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.     

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My TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies:  (As of 8/21).

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  August 19,  a reasonable risk is 16,228; a more extreme risk is 15,713. Near-term upside potential is 17,083.

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Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

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George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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