Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
S&P 500: 2,582
Monday, Nov. 13, 2017 9:04 a.m.
The press and talk show hosts frequently fail to drill down on a key point when pressing Republicans on the tax bill. They focus almost entirely on specifics (SALT, tax brackets, ITC, magnitude of tax cuts), when they should demand how much the bill will cost longer term, i.e., will the shortfall in tax revenues received by the federal government fail to cover federal government expenditures resulting in major increases in deficits.
The standard Republican reply is tax cuts will goose the economy enough to cover the shortfall.
And if it doesn’t, what administration will want to raise taxes to solve the problem
The real answer is, if the Republicans control the Presidency and both Houses, is they will then have an excuse to do what they have longed to do – slash social programs.
HERE’S WHAT the PROS ARE MISSING: Interest rates are rising, and will rise further if the economy ramps up in face of tax cuts. That means the cost of financing the government through new bond issues and rollovers will increase dramatically, raising hell with the deficit.
One other point. Our economic recovery is 8-1/2 years old (101 months) versus the average recovery length going back the 1945 of 35 months, a recession is reasonable due within two – three years, which would drain revenues further on top of the drain from tax cuts.
Tax cuts under President Reagan and George W. Bush, were promoted as driving faster economic growth, and in both cases they added trillions to the national debt. The tax rates increased under President Clinton had the opposite effect, federal tax receipts rose and national debt as a percent of GDP went down.
According to TIME.com/Money, the Trump administration is in the minority among key players projection an impact on the 10-year debt impact. Trump’s team projects revenue neutral.
But right-leaning Tax Foundation sees the current tax bill adding $2.6 trillion to 3.9 trillion to the nation’s debt; The centrist Tax Policy Center sees the tax bill adding $7 trillion to debt over 10 years; Moody’s sees a $13.7 trillion impact and hawkish Center for a Responsible Budget sees tax cuts adding $5.3 trillion.
The House tax bill cleared the Ways and Means Committee last Thursday and is headed for the House floor this week, where it will encounter debate on a number of issues, including family tax breaks, small business breaks, the deficit, various deductions, etc.
The Senate introduced its own tax bill with major differences on the corporate and individual tax payer side, including:*
–delay of corporate tax cuts until 2019 with a cut to 20% from 35%, to soften the ultimate impact on the deficit.
-keep number of tax brackets at 7 ranging from 10% to 38.5%.
-totally eliminate state and local tax deduction (GOP Senate has no members in New York or California)
-new 12.5% tax on patents and intellectual property overseas.
-double threshold for estate tax
-increase child care tax credit to $1,650 from $1,000
-maintain $1 million cap for mortgage interest deduction
-maintain many of itemized deductions for adoption and medical expenses.
-eliminate House’s “bubble tax” on the wealthy who would see a tax rate increase of 6% for income between $1 and $1.2 million.
-does NOT repeal the Obamacare individual mandate (penalty for not having insurance. According to Business Insider, provider of all this information, this move would generate more revenue for the bill but leave 13 million more without insurance over 10 years and introduce healthcare issues into an already process.
Senate Majority Whup, John Cornyn is shooting for a vote during the week of November 27.
But there may be something else afoot and it is not good news.
In addition to record lows in mutual fund buy power (cash), record margin debt (borrowings to buy stock), a seriously overvalued S&P 500, the Junk bond (JNK) market fell out of bed seven days ago.
What’s worse, JNK began to diverge from the S&P 500 October 25, it was going down while the S&P 500 was going up.(Marketwatch, “Stock-market investors are starting to freak out ….”)
Junk bonds sport the highest yields among bonds for good reason – they are the riskiest of all bonds. Normally they move in tandem with stocks, which are also in the risk category, but are now going the other way.
Yield curves are flatter than in a decade, Bloomberg reported today, reminding readers that takes us back to 2007 prior to the Great Recession (2007 – 2009).
As a spread between short-term and long-term Treasury Bond yields, its shape portends changes in the economy. Normal is up-sloping, reflecting short rates are dropping and long rates increasing or static. The curve tends to flatten as the economy ages when short rates rise relative to long rates, and becomes “inverted” when short rates rise further versus long rates, creating a humplike pattern. This is unhealthy, since short-term borrowings are becoming costly potentially choking off the economy.
I have repeatedly warned that the S&P 500 is historically overvalued, primarily due to expectations of a huge tax cut for corporations. However, part of the market’s 20% rise over the past year has also been attributable to continued growth in the economy and good corporate earnings.
A delay in the passage of a tax bill would adversely impact the stock market which explains its current stall.
Obviously, failure to pass a tax bill would hammer stock prices.
Expect news of passage to run the gamut of yes and no for weeks to come.
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:23,327; S&P 500:2,571; Nasdaq Comp.:6,701
RESISTANCE “today” DJIA:23,475; S&P 500:2,586; Nasdaq Comp.:6,763
After a brief meeting with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, at the Asian-Pacific summit, President Trump said, “He said he didn’t meddle. He said he didn’t meddle. I asked him again, You can only ask so many times,” CNN reports.
“Every time he sees me, he says ‘I didn’t do that.’ Trump said, adding, And I believe, I really believe that when he tells me that, he means it.”
All key U.S. intel agencies, a huge amount of findings and reports, and half of America say otherwise. While Trump backed off his statement, it is clear he is in denial. Even when special counsel Robert Mueller delivers proof positive, Trump will still deny it as fake news.
Worse yet, his base will do so also.
If history books are allowed to be written 10 years from now, the Trump years will go down as the darkest in America’s history since the Civil War.
SPUTNICK’S Back: Russia’s hacking and invasion of Twitter and Facebook are America’s present day “Sputnick” challenge.
The world was stunned in 1957 when the Soviet Union (Russia) launched the first unmanned satellite to orbit the earth. In 1961, the Soviet’s launched cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin who became the first man to orbit the earth. This was the catalyst for President Kennedy’s space program designed to ultimately land a man on the moon, which was done on July 20, 1969 by Apollo II.
America is just now finding out how deeply Russia has weaponized our social media and computer software programs at all levels. According to The New Republic’s December issue, Russia’s “theory of war allows you to defeat the enemy without ever having to touch him.”
The big question surrounding Russia’s ability to hack into Twitter (TWTR) and Facebook (FB) is, did they have help from the Trump team to tilt the election in his favor ?
Whether this manipulation continues, depends on how quickly our nation responds. So far Trump denies it even happened – duh.
TRUMP VOTER FRAUD COMMISSION is being SUED: Matthew Dunlap, Maine’s Secretary of State is accusing the Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity of essentially “lacking integrity.” It’s all about shutting Dunlap, a Democrat, out of the process and lack of transparency to the public. What else can be expected of a SCAM, designed to data mine all 50 state’s voter records for political advantage and ensure the continuance of Republican‘s voter suppression efforts.
Have these people no shame ? Americans ?? Or is this a bloodless coup ? NOT ON OUR WATCH !
Brian Benczkowski was nominated by President Trump in June to be U.S. Assistant Attorney General for the Criminal Division. My Sept. 15 post called attention to this since he previously represented one of Russia’s largest banks Russia’s Alfa Bank. Having advanced out of the Senate Judiciary Committee, his nomination is pending full Senate confirmation. He once served under Jeff Sessions. If confirmed, he pledged independence, recusing himself for two years from any dealings with alfa Bank. Sen. Feinstein voted against Benczkowski concerned that he never served as a federal prosecutor and the fact he would sit in on meetings with special counsel Robert Mueller with Russia probe. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., was concerned his major qualification was his connection with Sessions.
Mercer on the run ? Bannon and Breitbart bankroller, Robert Mercer is rapidly severing financial ties to Breitbart News and support of Steve Bannon and alt-right’s Milo Yiannopoulos. Mercer was a major supporter of Sen. Ted Cruz’s effort to gain the Republican nomination last year, but switched his allegiance to Trump when he won the nomination.
In my March 21 post, I wrote, “Years from now, I suspect Mercer will be relaxing at his Long Island waterfront retreat, Owl’s Nest, or on his 200-foot yacht, Sea Owl, and look back over his illustrious career tarnished by one regret – he backed the biggest con job in our nation’s history.”
IT’S NEVER THE GUNS !
Six states (Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Utah, Wisconsin), are planning to require poverty stricken people on Medicaid to get jobs or lose the coverage. Maine, Utah and Wisconsin want to put a time limit on coverage, the latter wants to drug-test people. Excluded: People with long-tern disabilities, the elderly, and children. Isn’t it bad enough these people are in poverty ?
Vox Media reports that 9.8 million Medicaid recipients don’t have jobs due to: Illness/disabled (35%), retired (8%), taking care of home or family (28%), going to school (18%), cannot find work (8%). The remaining 60.2 million Americans on Medicaid work full-time of part-time. I’m not sure what’s the Republican beef here.
Commerce Secretary, Wilbur Ross failed to disclose his one-third interest in a shipping company, Navigator Holdings. The problem is it has ties to a Russian energy company controlled by Vladimir Putin’s son-in-law and members of Putin’s inner circle.
Paul Manafort and associate and Trump campaign aide, Rick Gates, were indicted Monday and pleaded not guilty to twelve counts, including conspiracy against the U.S., conspiracy to launder money, unregistered agent of foreign principal, false and misleading Foreign Agent Registration Act, false statements, and seven counts of failure to file reports of foreign bank and financial accounts.
According to the Daily Beast, Gates is now working for Tom Barrack, a wealthy Trump supporter who led the presidential inaugural committee. The Beast reports that Gates is not liked by Trump, but accompanies Barrack when he visits Trump at the White House. Gates joined the lobbying firm, Davis Manafort in 2006 when the firm had a client, Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska, who had close ties to Vladimir Putin. In 2016, Deripaska accused Gates and Manafort of taking $19 million intended for investments. Manafort and Gates joined the Trump campaign in 2016, all this according to the Daily Beast’s article June 14, 2017.
Biggest Story of the Day:
The New Republic reports that former Trump campaign aide, George Papadopoulos pleaded guilty on October 5 to one count of lying to the FBI about his interactions with “foreign nationals, who he thought were connected with senior Russian government officials. The New Republic notes this “plea” suggests he is cooperating with Mueller.
Reason.com reports Papadoppulos met with an unnamed professor in March 2016 before assuming the role as foreign policy adviser to Trump. The professor claimed to have “dirt” on Hillary Clinton, including thousands of emails. He then shared the information with the Trump campaign.
The plea links the Trump campaign with attempts to deal with the Russian government. He is considered a “proactive cooperator,” which means he took an active role for months in obtaining information, possibly wearing a wire. This could be a BIG story, he may have some top Trump people on tape.
TRUMP TO FIRE MUELLER ? If President Trump wants to fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller, he would first have to fire Rod Rosenstein, Deputy Attorney General – but….
Obviously, firing Mueller would smack of “consciousness of guilt,” which could lead to impeachment proceedings by the House, and/or increase pressure for Trump to resign, but may be necessary. With Rosenstein out of the way, associate attorney general, Rachel Brand, a conservative nominated and confirmed by the Senate in February, would take over. If she refuses to fire Mueller, Dana Boente, U.S. attorney general for the Eastern District of Virginia would have taken over, but he has now announced plans to give up his position, which handles high-profile national security, espionage and leak cases. Upon confirmation he will be replaced by Boeing vice president and assistant general counsel, John Demers. Does this mean Rosenstein will be fired and Brand resign, because she won’t fire Mueller, but Trump nominee, Demers will ? While Brand is a highly competent conservative attorney who supported Sen. Cruz in 2016, firing Mueller may not be something she wants to be part of, and she may have let that be known. This case stands to eclipse Watergate where President Nixon tried to fire special prosecutor Archibald Cox but Attorney General, Elliot Richardson and two top deputies refused to follow the directive, and were fired. Next in line was Robert Bork, a conservative who fired Cox, but it may have cost Bork a chance at appointment to the U.S. Supreme Court later in his career.
TRUMP’S PARDON POWER
The President has the power to grant conditional pardons; to commute sentences; remit fines and forfeitures; and grant amnesty. This power can be exercised at any time after the offense has been committed, before conviction of after. Pardons cannot be limited by or controlled by legislative action. (US Legal.com).
The President cannot pardon people for “state” crimes, and it is doubtful he can pardon himself.
Can the Mueller investigation survive Mueller’s firing ?
Slate.com’s July 21 article, “Trump can’t Escape the States,” says “YES.”
1-A state [NY] could hire Mueller and team.
2-State attorneys general could use their quo warranto power to investigate Trump’s organization for fraud and money laundering from Russian sources.
3-A Congressional committee (Senate Intelligence Committee) could hire Mueller or create a Joint select Committee.
4-Congress could pass a new veto-proof independent counsel statute.
THE GREAT AMERICAN EXPERIMENT UNDER SEIGE: Not since the Civil War has the spirit and future of our nation been at such great risk, from within. This administration, Congress and U.S. Supreme Court is surgically dismembering efforts over many years to ensure the safety and well being of “all” Americans.
The sooner, Americans recognize these are not genuine Republican conservatives, but extremists determined dismantle that which has been achieved over the years and replace it with “their” brand of a quasi-fascist state. Ben Franklin was right when asked what kind of government the Founding Fathers had given us. “A Republic, if you can keep it,” was his response.
STUMP TRUMP: Bill Palmer, Palmer report.com. has a novel idea how Jeff Flake, Bob Corker and John McCain can prevent President Trump and destructive Congress from dismembering our Republic further. All three change registrations to Independent and caucus with the Democrats giving it a 51 – 49 majority. This would bump Mitch McConnell out of Majority Leader and replace the position with Chuck Schumer.
A DAFT TWERP: Just in from Veuer – President Trump is a ‘daft twerp’ according to Winston Churchill’s grandson, a conservative member of Parliament. The Brits consider a “twerp” as a silly, insignificant or annoying person, and “daft” as foolish. Let’s see if the bust of Winston in Trump’s office goes the way of so many of his original administration.
1,318 FALSE or MISLEADING CLAIMS (LIES) by President Trump since being sworn in as President, January 20, 263 days ago. The tally is kept by the Washington Post’s Fact Checker, which breaks all lies down into 24 categories. Please, someone wake me up, tell me this is not happening….and reassure me Americans aren’t in denial.
ADD ANOTHER LIE TO THE 1,318 referred to above. Yesterday, Trump touted tax cuts for the middle class in Pennsylvania, saying the typical American household would get a $4,000 pay raise, and “it could be a lot more than that.” Not mentioned is the savings would be over an eight year period, $500 a year.
The Tax Policy Center (TPC) claims tax reform as we know it today heavily favors the rich, boosting after-tax income for the top 1% by 8.5% on average, while the bottom 95% would get a boost of 1.2%
WRECK NAFTA ? Bloomberg’s “The Editors” seems to think so, pointing to the disruption of long-established supply chains that would raise costs, and increase US imports. “The evidence is clear, Nafta has helped all its members, including the U.S., achieve greater efficiency and higher living standards,” Bloomberg notes, adding undermining it or causing its collapse would cause enormous disruption for businesses and labor pools in all three countries.
TRUMP WANTS ANYONE WHO DOESN’T STAND FOR THE NATIONAL ANTHEM TO BE “FIRED” ?
Personally, I would find another way of expressing my 1st Amendment opinion, like here in this blog, but I think not standing for the National Anthem IS NOWHERE NEARLY AS UN-AMERICAN AS TAKING 5 (five) DEFERRMENTS TO AVOID MILITARY SERVICE, WHICH IS WHAT TRUMP DID DURING THE VIETNAM WAR ERA. Deplorable !
AMERICANS ARE TOO SCARED to have the courage to do the right thing. If not outwardly scared, Americans are subconsciously scared. Its origin is difficult to pinpoint, but I’d say the U.S. involvement in the Vietnam War in the late 1960s and early 1970’s was a start. That’s when confidence in our government began to crumble as protests against the War escalated. The horrors of war were brought into every living room, hundreds of thousands of protesters took to the street. Families were divided by “for” and “against” the war. “Like it, or leave it” was the pro-war patriot mantra.
President Nixon’s Watergate woes and resignation ahead of impeachment proceedings loped off a little more trust in politicians. This, combined with the OPEC oil embargo resulted in a 16-month recession and 50% drop in the S&P 500.
Probably, the biggest jolt came on September 11, 2001 with the terrorist attack on the New York City Trade Towers and the Pentagon. Lies about Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction got us into the Iraq War, another discredit for authority in our nation’s highest office.
The Great Recession (2007 – 2009) and stock market’s 50% crash was yet another jolt from which many never recovered. Now you have President Trump, an unpredictable narcissist with 1,000 lies in eight months to his credit. Oh, and the legitimacy of his presidency challenged by investigations of collusion with Russia to bombard American voters with fake news about rival candidate Hillary Clinton and who knows what in key electoral college states Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
White Americans are seeing too many people of color on TV, in sports, in schools in their neighborhoods, in their police force, military. It’s fine if a black man scores a touchdown for their alma mater, just don’t run for office or beat out their child in school activities, or them for a job.
Get used to it Republican bigot, you can deport a whole bunch of people of color, gerrymander their vote, disrespect them, but they are hungry for achievement and want to eat your lunch, like it or not. Bigotry is un-American, and if you know what Christianity is really about bigotry is un-Christian.
SMALL WONDER AMERICANS FEEL THE NEED FOR AN ARSENAL IN THEIR HOME, FOR THE RIGHT TO “CARRY” A PIECE EVERYWHERE, INCLUDING BARS, EATERIES, PLAYGROUNDS, PARKS. Americans are so scared, even sensible measures designed to make people safer are rejected.
If the wanton murder of 20 six-year olds in 2012 in Newtown, Connecticut didn’t spark an outrage, nothing will. Some whackos claim it didn’t happen, not to my surprise, some believed them.
This was a defining incident in America. Americans too freaking scared and intimidated by the NRA to be upset by the son of a gun-nut murdering children. Shame ! The NRA exploited the situation for their own benefit, as Americans watched. Again, SHAME !
WOULD ANYONE WANT their spouse to lie repeatedly ?, their child ?, mother ?, father ?, minister ?, child’s teacher ?, coach ?, employer ?. IF NOT, why would they support President Trump who is on record with telling4.5 lies per day, 1,000 lies since his inauguration on January 20 ?
PARDONS: Expect Trump to attempt to pardon anyone he wants, including himself. It’s a way out of facing responsibility very much like dodging the draft. Like when he justified his numerous bankruptcies, saying he only used U.S. laws to his advantage. Well, “pardons” are his prerogative, in many, not all cases. He would take advantage of whatever loophole to avoid consequences, sort of like dodging the draft, or did I already say that ?
TAX REFORM BENEFITTING WEALTHY AS WELL AS TRUMP ? Depends on who you ask. Trump says he wont’ benefit – Add that to his 1,000 lies that have been documented since his inauguration. Everything I read indicates the little guy gets screwed. But isn’t it the little guy/girl who is responsible for his election to the Presidency. Tough break guys, and girls – next time leave your confirmation bias at the door and vote your interest !
IS PRESIDENT TRUMP BROKE ? Bill Palmer, Palmerreport.com thinks so. Why else would he hide his tax return ?
TAX REFORM – “Potholes and sinkholes”*
Trump campaigned in Missouri recently for tax reform, including middle-class tax cuts, and a simpler tax code. Few specifics are mentioned. The border-adjusted tax is off the table. The mortgage, charity and retirement deductions are safe. The big question is whether the tax cuts would be temporary or permanent. If th latter, the cuts may not increase the deficit.
An August 4 – 9 Bloomberg poll of economists reveals 28 of 39 polled expect Congress to pass tax cut legislation by November 2018. Unfortunately this action is not expected to add more than 0.2 percentage points to the GDP, and that growth is forecast to only slightly exceed that this year’s 2.1 percent, this forecast coming from 71 economists. Worse yet, 2019 is projected to fall back to the 2 percent level. Referring to a corporate tax rate for developed nations of 24%, Trump says…”We have no choice….we must lower our taxes.
Facts from mic.com: In 2016 the Government Accounting Office (GAO) found at least two-thirds of U.S. corporations did not pay federal income tax between 2006 and 2012. One-fifth of America’s largest profitable corporations didn’t pay any income tax in 2012.
Another study released earlier this year found the effective tax rate for consistently profitable Fortune 500 companies is 21.2%
All told, U.S. corporations pay slightly less in overall taxes than companies in comparable countries.
This begs the question of how much impact would corporate tax cuts have on the S&P 500.
Trump, Bannon Gone By 2019 (Investor’s first read: 3/21/2017)
Right winger and Breitbart grad, Sebastian Gorka is now gone, Gorka’s exit closely follows the departure of Steve Bannon, another Breitfart grad, hopefully leading to the firing of Stephen Miller, a brash, caustic right wing extremist and Breitbart supporter cuddler.
WAR – North Korea
Sen. Lindsey Graham says a U.S. military strike of N. Korea is possible,* that we cannot allow “this madman [Kim Jong-un] to have a missile to hit America.” His Tuesday, Aug 1, interview on the Today Show, follows N. Korea’s ICBM test days ago. Graham also said the Chinese can stop such an attack. While such a war would take place on North Korean soil, South Korea would incur huge casualties from N. Korean artillery.
OBSERVATION: Since January, I have warned Trump would put the U.S. on a war footing (see below) for political reasons, namely the mid-terms. Now I am convinced it is front burner because the Meuller investigations are closing in.
Nuclear deterrence has been effective since the 1950s, for the obvious reasons. The countries with the largest nuclear arsenals and estimated warheads include United States (7,500), Russia (7,200), France (300), China (250), UK (215), Pakistan (110), India (100),Israel (80).
The uncertainty of war would JOLT the market, especially if it disrupted trade alliances. Reportedly, it would only take 33 minutes for a ballistic missile to reach the U.S.. If detonated high over the center of the U.S., it would cause an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) which would shut down “everything” A-to-Z indefinitely.
TRUMP – EARLY STAGE DEMENTIA ? Don’t know. Clearly he has personality disorder (Narcissism), but the question is being asked more and more with references to speech, use of words, disorientation, irritability, memory loss, late night tweets, confusion, paranoia.
TRUMP looking for a “Get Out Of Jail Free Card if the Feds close in?”
Why not, he dodged military service with 5 deferments during the Vietnam era (1964 – 1970).
Reportedly, he has asked advisers about his power to pardon family members and himself relating to Mueller’s investigation.
W HAT HAPPENS WHEN THE INVESTIGATION IS COMPLETED ? If the Special Counselor concludes it is “necessary and appropriate” he is authorized to prosecute federal crimes arising out of the investigation, which he does after submitting a report to the attorney general explaining his reasons.
REASONS NEEDED TO FIRE MUELLER: Misconduct, dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, good cause (??), violation of Department policies.
WOULD MUELLER BE REPLACED ? Unclear. If the Democrats controlled Congress they could appoint another Special Counselor
“Connect the Dots.” This investigation is open-ended
Nigel Farage – President Trump- Jeffrey Sessions – Robert Mercer – Cambridge Analytics – Bannon- Carter Page – Kushner (Jared and Ivanka) – Eric Prince – Donald, Jr. and Eric Trump – Wilbur Ross – Michael Cohen – Ezra Cohen Watnick – Michael Flynn – JD Gordon – Christopher Steele – Michael Caputo -Breitbart News – Roger Stone – Julian Assange – Paul Manafort – Rick Gates – Jill Stein – Sam Clovis – Kellyanne and George Conway –Dana Rohrabacher – Bill Browder – Peter W. Smith (deceased: suicide), Paul Behrends – Boris Epshteyn, Ike Kaveladze, and Russia’s alfa Group – Felix Sater – Rob Goldstone – alfa Group – Emin Agalarov – Sergey Gorkov – Sergey Kislyak, ambassador to the U.S., Natalia Veselnitskaya, Oleg Deripaska all connect directly or indirectly to the Trump/Russia investigation and some have a connection to Brexit, as well.
According to the “Observer,” Mercer’s Cambridge Analytica was connected with Canada’s AggregateIQ through an intellectual property agreement and worked together on the Brexit referendum. Aggregate is also a data mining company. While Mercer was a big supporter of Trump, there is no known connection between AggregateIQ and Trump’s campaign staff.
The Palmer Report.com recently reported that Peter W. Smith (recent suicide) sought to collude with Russian hackers stealing emails from Trump’s opposition while claiming to be working with Michael Flynn.
Additionally, IMHO, Vice President Mike Pence simply had to be aware of what was happening in the campaign, but is being shielded because he is the second in command if President Trump is impeached and convicted or forced to resign. Stephen Miller, Joseph E. Schmitz may be of interest to the FBI for information they possess relating to the FBI investigation.
According to CNN Politics, Marc Kasowitz represented Trump for personal and business matters for years. Worth noting, Kasowitz is defending Russian bank, OJSC Sberbank in U.S. court, as well as a Russian billionaire, Oleg Deripaska, who has close ties with the Kremlin.
As of July 21, Kasowitz’s is no longer Trump’s personal attorney
REMOVING TRUMP FROM OFFICE
Can Section 4 of the 25th Amendment, U.S. Constitution – Remove Trump ?
It’s a stretch. The key for his removal is ”that he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.” Section 4 mentions nothing that he is unfit, delusional, unbalanced, crazy, impulsive, irrational, impaired, sociopathic, psychopathic, narcissistic.
That would be the threshold that would have to be crossed if Trump is removed from office via Section 4 of the 25th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. There is no precedent
It isn’t just Democrats, liberals, moderates and reasonable people who find Trump caustic, and dangerous, conservatives like George Will, David Brooks and Ross Douthart are also urging his removal.
First, there are four ways to get rid of Trump – death, resignation, impeachment and Section 4 of the 25th Amendment.
The procedure employing the 25th Amendment requires the Vice President and the majority of the cabinet of 15 (8) to vote to remove the president. They would submit their declaration in writing to the President pro tempore ( Sen. Orrin Hatch) and Speaker of the House (Paul Ryan) that the president is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, and the Vice President will immediately assume to office as acting president.
However, the president may contend the move by submitting his own letter to the President pro tempore and Speaker of the House, that he believes he is capable of performing his duties, in which case he will resume the office of presidency.
The Vice President and Cabinet members may then resubmit their declaration at which point Congress would vote within 48 hours if in session. If not, Congress will act within 21 days where a two-thirds vote would be required to remove him.
A Consult/Politico poll shows 43% of Americans want Congress to begin procedures for the impeachment of President Trump.
The U.S. Constitution enables Congress to remove a president for “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.” Intitially, the House votes on one or more articles of impeachment- if a majority vote is reached, he is impeached. BUT, impeachment only means indictment. The Senate holds a trial overseen by the chief justice and Supreme Court. A group of House members serve as prosecutors and the Senate as jurors. If two-thirds of the senators find the president guilty, he is removed from office and the vice president takes over.
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Business Insider – Bob Bryan Nov.9, 2017
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.