Waiting on the Fed

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:18,120
S&#03Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:18,120
S&P 500:2,139
Nasdaq Comp.:5,235
Russell 2000: 1,232
Tuesday, September 20, 2016 9:07 a.m.
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When will Wall Street’s computers recognize the November elections are important and the outcome uncertain ?
When will Wall Street’s computers recognize the Fed’s policy of ease is limited, that other factors must be considered in arriving market valuation ?
NOTE:
Last week I made special note that there was NO PRESS CONFERENCE scheduled after the FOMC meeting this wednesday I also said any sudden scheduling of a press conference would suggest news on interest rates.
That is incorrect. There WILL BE a press conference following Wednesday’s meeting. The FOMC calendar in my file indicated there would not be a press conference after the meeting. I am not sure when a change took place, if it was a typo since corrected, if a meeting was recently scheduled, or if it suggests news on interest rates is coming Wednesday.
Assume there will be a press conference at 2:30 Wednesday, but it’s anyone’s guess on a bump in rates.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
WHAT COULD HURT THE MARKET
-The uncertainty created by a dead heat in the race for the presidency
-Q3 earnings reports in October, which are expected to mark the sixth straight quarterly decline for the S&P 500.
-a downward revision of 2017’s S&P 500 earnings, currently expected to increase 13.4%.
-further decline in oil prices, which will impede that industry’s recovery.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Week’s Economic Calendar
Thursday: Jobless Claims and Chicago Fed Activity (8:30); FHFA House Prices (9:00 a.m.); Existing Home Sales, Leading Indicators (10:00 a.m.),
Friday: PMI Mfg. (9:45 a.m.), Atlanta Fed Business (10:00).
Also Friday: Regional Fed Presidents Panel (12:00 p.m.).
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
TODAY
The market action yesterday wasn’t pretty, but in light of the fact the Street is awaiting Wednesday’s 2:30 Fed news conference regarding interest rates..
I am attributing the market’s indifference to uncertainties to the fact that so much of the Street’s decision process is computerized and everyone is pretty much all on the same page.
As I have noted many times, if something in their programming triggers outright buying or selling, the impact will be dramatic, because just about every institution will be doing the same thing.
Obviously, the computers were programmed to sell, or simply not buy, in August 2015, as well as in January/February this year, and the market went south in a hurry. When the Brits voted to leave the EU in June, the computers, biased to buy on pullbacks, did just that even in face of a lot of skepticism about the impact on the EC.
Expect volatility to continue as a Fed decision on interest rates nears. A decision to raise rates is the least expected.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:18,076; S&P 500:2,133; Nasdaq Comp.:5,229
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:18,226;S&P 500:2,149; Nasdaq Comp.:5,261
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NEW PROJECTION:
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of September 16, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,011 a more extreme risk is 17,908 Near-term upside potential is 18,435.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ELECTION YEAR PATTERN BEARISH AFTER MARCH
(So far this is not holding up)
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q3, and 2016 earnings questionable with strong U.S. dollar.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Bloomberg.com (Excellent pre-market read)
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

8;P 500:2,139
Nasdaq Comp.:5,235
Russell 2000: 1,232
Tuesday, September 20, 2016 9:07 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
When will Wall Street’s computers recognize the November elections are important and the outcome uncertain ?
When will Wall Street’s computers recognize the Fed’s policy of ease is limited, that other factors must be considered in arriving market valuation ?
NOTE:
Last week I made special note that there was NO PRESS CONFERENCE scheduled after the FOMC meeting this wednesday I also said any sudden scheduling of a press conference would suggest news on interest rates.
That is incorrect. There WILL BE a press conference following Wednesday’s meeting. The FOMC calendar in my file indicated there would not be a press conference after the meeting. I am not sure when a change took place, if it was a typo since corrected, if a meeting was recently scheduled, or if it suggests news on interest rates is coming Wednesday.
Assume there will be a press conference at 2:30 Wednesday, but it’s anyone’s guess on a bump in rates.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
WHAT COULD HURT THE MARKET
-The uncertainty created by a dead heat in the race for the presidency
-Q3 earnings reports in October, which are expected to mark the sixth straight quarterly decline for the S&P 500.
-a downward revision of 2017’s S&P 500 earnings, currently expected to increase 13.4%.
-further decline in oil prices, which will impede that industry’s recovery.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Week’s Economic Calendar
Thursday: Jobless Claims and Chicago Fed Activity (8:30); FHFA House Prices (9:00 a.m.); Existing Home Sales, Leading Indicators (10:00 a.m.),
Friday: PMI Mfg. (9:45 a.m.), Atlanta Fed Business (10:00).
Also Friday: Regional Fed Presidents Panel (12:00 p.m.).
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
TODAY
The market action yesterday wasn’t pretty, but in light of the fact the Street is awaiting Wednesday’s 2:30 Fed news conference regarding interest rates..
I am attributing the market’s indifference to uncertainties to the fact that so much of the Street’s decision process is computerized and everyone is pretty much all on the same page.
As I have noted many times, if something in their programming triggers outright buying or selling, the impact will be dramatic, because just about every institution will be doing the same thing.
Obviously, the computers were programmed to sell, or simply not buy, in August 2015, as well as in January/February this year, and the market went south in a hurry. When the Brits voted to leave the EU in June, the computers, biased to buy on pullbacks, did just that even in face of a lot of skepticism about the impact on the EC.
Expect volatility to continue as a Fed decision on interest rates nears. A decision to raise rates is the least expected.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:18,076; S&P 500:2,133; Nasdaq Comp.:5,229
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:18,226;S&P 500:2,149; Nasdaq Comp.:5,261
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NEW PROJECTION:
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of September 16, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,011 a more extreme risk is 17,908 Near-term upside potential is 18,435.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ELECTION YEAR PATTERN BEARISH AFTER MARCH
(So far this is not holding up)
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q3, and 2016 earnings questionable with strong U.S. dollar.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Bloomberg.com (Excellent pre-market read)
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

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