Uncertainty Rises – Market Indifferent

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:18,123
S&P 500:2,139
Nasdaq Comp.:5,244
Russell 2000: 1,224
Monday, September 19, 2016 9:07 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NOTE:
Last week I made special note that there was NO PRESS CONFERENCE scheduled after the FOMC meeting this wednesday I also said any sudden scheduling of a press conference would suggest news on interest rates.
That is incorrect. There WILL BE a press conference following Wednesday’s meeting. The FOMC calendar in my file indicated there would not be a press conference after the meeting. I am not sure when a change took place, if it was a typo since corrected, if a meeting was recently scheduled, or if it suggests news on interest rates is coming Wednesday.
Assume there will be a press conference at 2:30 Wednesday, but it’s anyone’s guess on a bump in rates.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
WHAT COULD HURT THE MARKET
-The uncertainty created by a dead heat in the race for the presidency
-Q3 earnings reports in October, which are expected to mark the sixth straight quarterly decline for the S&P 500.
-a downward revision of 2017’s S&P 500 earnings, currently expected to increase 13.4%.
-further decline in oil prices, which will impede that industry’s recovery.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
TODAY
Looks like a strong open. Friday was Quadruple Witching Friday when all four futures/options expire. Volume and activity tend to be higher as institutions scramble to unwind positions. That activity can spill over to Monday, so that may be what we see this morning.
The DJIA and S&P 500 have held up well above 18,000 and 2,120 respectively for five consecutive days. The Nasdaq Comp. has posted higher lows five days running.
Nothing has changed for the better on the news front – uncertainties continue to mount but have had little effect on the stock market.
There is a chance of a big rally today, probably in anticipation of inaction on rates by the Fed.
This market marches to a drumbeat, but no one is sure who the drummer is. Most pros would say it is the Fed. I am beginning to think buy/sell decisions are so overwhelmingly computerized, the market is no longer sensitive to news of any kind, and that is dangerous.
It looks like the algos are programmed to buy on any weakness. Any changes or trespasses on any trigger mechanism will probably be employed by most institutions simultaneously, creating a buying or selling panic.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:18,076; S&P 500:2,133; Nasdaq Comp.:5,229
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:18,226;S&P 500:2,149; Nasdaq Comp.:5,261
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NEW PROJECTION:
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of September 16, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,011 a more extreme risk is 17,908 Near-term upside potential is 18,435.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ELECTION YEAR PATTERN BEARISH AFTER MARCH
(So far this is not holding up)
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q3, and 2016 earnings questionable with strong U.S. dollar.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Bloomberg.com (Excellent pre-market read)
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:18,123
S&P 500:2,139
Nasdaq Comp.:5,244
Russell 2000: 1,224
Monday, September 19, 2016 9:07 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NOTE:
Last week I made special note that there was NO PRESS CONFERENCE scheduled after the FOMC meeting this wednesday I also said any sudden scheduling of a press conference would suggest news on interest rates.
That is incorrect. There WILL BE a press conference following Wednesday’s meeting. The FOMC calendar in my file indicated there would not be a press conference after the meeting. I am not sure when a change took place, if it was a typo since corrected, if a meeting was recently scheduled, or if it suggests news on interest rates is coming Wednesday.
Assume there will be a press conference at 2:30 Wednesday, but it’s anyone’s guess on a bump in rates.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
WHAT COULD HURT THE MARKET
-The uncertainty created by a dead heat in the race for the presidency
-Q3 earnings reports in October, which are expected to mark the sixth straight quarterly decline for the S&P 500.
-a downward revision of 2017’s S&P 500 earnings, currently expected to increase 13.4%.
-further decline in oil prices, which will impede that industry’s recovery.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
TODAY
Looks like a strong open. Friday was Quadruple Witching Friday when all four futures/options expire. Volume and activity tend to be higher as institutions scramble to unwind positions. That activity can spill over to Monday, so that may be what we see this morning.
The DJIA and S&P 500 have held up well above 18,000 and 2,120 respectively for five consecutive days. The Nasdaq Comp. has posted higher lows five days running.
Nothing has changed for the better on the news front – uncertainties continue to mount but have had little effect on the stock market.
There is a chance of a big rally today, probably in anticipation of inaction on rates by the Fed.
This market marches to a drumbeat, but no one is sure who the drummer is. Most pros would say it is the Fed. I am beginning to think buy/sell decisions are so overwhelmingly computerized, the market is no longer sensitive to news of any kind, and that is dangerous.
It looks like the algos are programmed to buy on any weakness. Any changes or trespasses on any trigger mechanism will probably be employed by most institutions simultaneously, creating a buying or selling panic.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:18,076; S&P 500:2,133; Nasdaq Comp.:5,229
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:18,226;S&P 500:2,149; Nasdaq Comp.:5,261
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NEW PROJECTION:
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of September 16, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,011 a more extreme risk is 17,908 Near-term upside potential is 18,435.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ELECTION YEAR PATTERN BEARISH AFTER MARCH
(So far this is not holding up)
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q3, and 2016 earnings questionable with strong U.S. dollar.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Bloomberg.com (Excellent pre-market read)
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

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