Trump Investigation Widens

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 21,359
S&P 500: 2,432
Nasdaq  Comp.:6,165
Russell 2000: 1,410
Friday, June 16, 2017    9:03 a.m.
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      Economic indicators reported yesterday were soft,
including Jobless claims, the Philly Fed Business Outlook, Empire State manufacturing Survey, Industrial Production and the Housing Market Index.  Wednesday’s Retail Sales Index was also soft (-0.3 percent).
      Consumer Sentiment and Confidence has been strong this year, but this is not reflected in consumer buying, which was unusually soft in Q1.
      Consumer Sentiment for May will be reported at 10:00 today.

      Apparently the Fed is not concerned, having bumped its benchmark rate up for the second time this year, yesterday.
      It appears to me, the promise of a big stimulus following the November election juiced expectations, but that may not happen soon enough now with questions about the Trump administration’s ability to follow through.
       Promise of a massive stimulus is responsible for the Trump bump of 12.4% in the S&P 500 Index.
TODAY
       So, we are at a crossroads.  The market can go higher if the Trump administration can cut taxes, put a good dent in regulations, and effect a big spend on the Internet and/or military. 
        If not, the market has to slip down to a comfort level. The Nasdaq Comp. got hammered last Friday and has not recovered. Reflecting a flight to safety, the DJIA edged up this week, the broad-based S&P 500 has stalled.
        May through September tends to be soft, clearly when compared with September through May.  The Trump investigation is widening, which is bad news for Wall Street..                                                                                                                                                                                                                             >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:;S&P 500:; Nasdaq Comp.:
RESISTANCE “today” DJIA:;S&P 500:;Nasdaq Comp.:

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CORPORATE EARNINGS
(updated June 9, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 14.0%.      Q2 growth  is projected at +6.6%, Q3 at +7.5%, and Q4 at +12.4%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 9.9%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.7 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0.
Note: These numbers change frequently.
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MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 6/13/17)
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  June 15, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 21,951 a more extreme risk is 20,703.Near-term upside potential is 21,418.
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POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
      The lovefest between Republicans and Democrats is running full tilt following the ballpark shooting and both parties talk of the great American way where individuals negotiate the best bills to send to President Trump’s desk.

     Meanwhile,Senator McConnell has started the process known as Rule 14, enabling the Senate to bypass standard procedures, including committee hearings and markups, in a desperate attempt to ram a bill  on the replacement of ACA through before the July 4th recess. The strategy is to push it through quickly before any opposition can develop.
      After eight years and more than 55 attempts to skewer ACA, The Republicans now own the nation’s healthcare bill
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BREAKING NEWS: TRUMP – OBSTRUCTION OF JUSTICE
       Special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, has entered into a criminal investigation of President Trump for obstruction of Justice
with Director of National Intelligence, Daniel Coats, NSA head, Mike Rodgers, and his recently departed deputy, Richard Ledgett agreeing to be interviewed this week.
      Reportedly, In March, Trump asked Coats to intervene with FBI director James Comey to curtail its  Russia probe of  former national security adviser Michael Flynn.
       Shortly after, Trump  contacted Coats and Rogers separately, asking them to issue public statements denying collusion between Trump’s campaign and the Russian government. Neither would comply.
       I think collusion regarding influencing the election is only part of something much bigger, like major league money transfers for options on oil investments, real estate holdings, and land deals. That’s why it is taking so much time.
       The investigation is now examining Jared Kushner’s international financial dealings.
      Vice President Pence has retained legal counsel.  Why not ?  He was there in the catbird’s seat during the campaign and afterwards.
            There are so many people who know so much, and they are going to be watching out for number ONE, and that is not Donald Trump.
HOWEVER, Trump will stop at nothing to preserve his self image – Expect firings, scapegoating,  delaying tactics, and  unscrupulous lawyering.
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SENATE INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE  – Sessions, Attorney General
     
I watched the testimony of U.S. Attorney General, Jeff Sessions, yesterday.  What an unimpressive person.  His Mickey Rooneyish  self righteousness was galling.
      If he didn’t know anything about Russian tampering with our elections, he should have, he is the U.S. Attorney General. He was active in Trump’s campaign, was sworn in on February 9 and recused himself on March 2.  He knew nothing –  did nothing ?  He should have an intimate knowledge of this grave threat to our election process.
      It was sad to watch his defense attorneys (Republican Senate Intelligence Committee members) serve him one layup after another, instead of drilling down in search of the truth. That’s what’s flawed about Congressional committees.
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IMPEACHMENT
      A  Consult/Politico poll shows 43% of Americans want Congress to begin procedures for the impeachment of President Trump.

      The U.S. Constitution  enables Congress to remove a president for “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.” Intitially, the House votes on one or more articles of impeachment- if a majority vote is reached, he is impeached.  BUT, impeachment only means indictment. The Senate holds a trial overseen by the chief justice and Supreme Court. A group of House members serve as prosecutors and the Senate as jurors. If two-thirds of the senators find the president guilty, he is removed from office and the vice president takes over.***
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“Connect the Dots.” This investigation is open-ended
      
Farage – Trump- Sessions – Mercer – Cambridge Analytics – Bannon- Page – Kushner – Michael Cohn – Flynn – JD Gordon  – Breitbart – Stone – Assange – Manafort – Russia all connect directly or indirectly to the Trump/Russia investigation and have a connection to Brexit, as well. According to the “Observer, Mercer’s Cambridge Analytica was connected with Canada’s AggregateIQ through an intellectual property agreement and worked together on the Brexit referendum. Aggregate is also a data mining company. While Mercer was a big supporter of Trump, there is no known connection between AggregateIQ and Trump’s campaign staff.
      Additionally,  Vice President Mike Pence simply had to be aware of what was happening in the campaign, but is being shielded because he is the second in command if  President Trump is impeached and convicted  or forced to resign. Stephen Miller, Joseph E. Schmitz may be of interest to the FBI for information they possess relating to the FBI investigation.
      According to CNN Politics,  Marc Kasowitz has represented Trump for personal and business matters for years. Worth noting, Kasowitz is defending Russian bank, OJSC Sberbank in U.S. court, as well as a Russian billionaire, Oleg Deripaska, who has close ties with the Kremlin. 
       WHY SO MANY RUSSIANS ? WHY ALL THESE RUSSIAN CONNECTIONS ?  THIS IS GETTING BIGGER – IMHO THIS WILL BE THE BIGGEST SCANDAL “EVER” AND MAY TAKE YEARS TO FULLY UNWIND.
          Was there a GLOBAL POWER PLAY here ?  Britain, United States, France, Netherlands, Sweden, Italy ?   Who was the puppeteer who were the puppets ?
        The new kid on the FBI “person of interest” block in its US counter-intelligence investigation is Nigel Farage, a Brit, former UK Independence Party (UKIP)  leader and tactician for Brexit. He may be positioned to have a lot of pertinent information about 2016 election tampering. Reportedly, he has had direct or indirect contact with all of the above.  …………………………………………………………………………………..
      President Trump’s budget is obviously DOA, with lots of blowback by Republicans looking to their prospects of re-election in 2018. The budget is a disgrace to who we are as Americans, as it skewers a portion of our society with little ability to defend itself, much less survive.      
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PREUTERS WORLD NEWS APRIL 19, 4:20 PM
“A Russian government think tank controlled by Vladimir Putin developed a plan to swing the 2016 U.S. presidential election to Donald Trump and undermine voters’ faith in the American electoral system, three current and four former U.S. officials told Reuters.
      Russian documents appear to confirm what U.S. intelligence agencies have believed  all along that Russia influenced the outcome of our presidential election. 
      It recommended that a, “propaganda campaign on social media and Russian backed global news outlets to encourage U.S. voters to elect a president who would take a softer line toward Russia than the administration of then-President Barach Obama, the seven officials said.”
     Additionally, a second institute document recommended Russia end its pro-Trump propaganda and intensify messaging about voter fraud to undermine the U.S. electoral system’s legitimacy and damage Clinton’s reputation.
      So far, investigations by U.S. institutions and Congress have not concluded collusion between Trump’s team and Russian operatives occurred.

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TRUMP TO PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
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Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
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George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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