Trader’s Buy at the Open Without Deal

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,946
S&P 500: 2,101
Nasdaq  Comp.: 5,080
Russell 2000: 1,279

Monday, June 29, 2015   9:03 a.m.

TODAY

     Friday I said, “A settlement over the weekend would bump prices at the open Monday, so traders may want to buy late in the day here. No weekend settlement would crunch prices in the first 20 minutes of trading Monday giving traders an even better entry point.”

     It is 9:10 and no settlement has occurred. If that’s the case at 9:30, the market will take a big hit in early trading, which should give traders a chance to buy at least partial positions saving some cash in case this crisis is taken to a higher level.

      A settlement before 9:30 would run the market up sharply in a “gap” open.

      Remember this, the Greece crisis has been with us since 2010 along with the possibility it will exit the euro, and possibly set the stage for others to do so.

      I think the European Commission, European Central Bank and IMF have been prepared for this for years and are ready to implement damage control to head off a European meltdown.  Greece accounts for 2% of the euro-zone output.

Resistance today starts at DJIA: 18,047; S&P 500: 2,110; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,131.

Support today is: DJIA:17,787; S&P500: 2,112;  Nasdaq Comp.: 5,109.

THE FED

      The guessing game continues – Will the Fed bump interest rates up in September, or later ?

      Obviously, their decision will key on the strength of the U.S. economy where housing is taking the lead and now consumer expectations are soaring.

      Pending Home Sales come at 10 o’clock, the Dallas Fed Mfg. at 10:30, S&P Case-Shiller Home Prices Tuesday (9:00), Chicago PMI (9:45), Consumer Confidence (10:00)Wednesday brings the ADP Employment Report(8:15), PMI Mfg. (9:45), ISM Mfg. (10:00), Construction Spend (10:00). Thursday we get Jobless Claims and the Employment Situation reports (8:30), and Factory Orders 10:00).

      Manufacturing has lagged. Any pickup and “interest rate bump” hits headlines.

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My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  June 26 a reasonable risk is 17,837; a more extreme risk is 17,650 The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 18,270.

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KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
Q2 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Recent strength in employment and housing industry shifting concern from a weakening in the U.S. economy to enough strength to prompt an early bump up in interest rates.

-Greece

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

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*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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