Street Now Favors Biden ?

INVESTOR’S first read.com – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:28,148
S&P 500: 3.408
Nasdaq Comp.:11,332
Russell: 1,581
Tuesday October 6, 2020    8:57 a.m.
……………………………………..
brooksie01@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
November 15, 2019 (DJIA – 28,004)   I Called for a bear market to start in January, that the initial plunge would be 12%-18% – “straight down.” It started mid-February, dropped 16.3%, rallied then  plunged another 32.8%.
…………………………………………………..
January 20, 2020 (DJIA:29,348) My blog,  “INSANITY,” projected a bear market decline of  30% – 45%. The DJIA plunged 38.4% in 21 days.
………………………………………………….
With the DJIA at 18,591on March 24, I wrote that , while I see lower prices later in the year, I expect a big rally with the upside potential of DJIA 22,037 (S&P 500 : 2,617) – it went higher.
With the DJIA at 23,942 (S&P 500) on April 15, I
called for  an end to  rally, up 29% but well short of  today.   how far the rally extended.  On May 18, I began to warn of  Bubble #2
August 6, I headline “SELL” with DJIA at 27,201 (S&P 500:3,327). Another “Fed” bubble.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
This has become such a news sensitive market jerking one way, than another like a drunk line dancer.
      Are shorts being chased once again, if so, is it because the Street is worried that Trump will  lose re-election, or is it worried he will win ?
      After four years, the Street may opt for sanity, an end to the rape and pillage of our democratic republic and the daily effort to divide us as Americans.
       Never has the value of  the “rule of law”  been more evident, the importance of truthfulness vs. daily lying and optics.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE STOCK MARKET ?
So far – nothing.  There is something about risk the Street doesn’t get, spoiled by 11 years of economic expansion and bull market interrupted briefly this year for a COVOID moment.
Rigid buy-only algos have  driven stock prices far beyond realistic levels, levels not seen in a hundred years.
What will trigger a reality check ?   How about a touch of acrophobia, or FOMO – not fear of missing out on a buying opportunity, but fear of missing a selling opportunity before the big  flush.”
BOTTOM LINE:
The bear market that started in February was over in a couple months, juiced by unprecedented Fed and Congressional stimulus, which triggered a sharp rebound in the economy possibly enough to cause the  NBER to announce the recession is over in a month or two.
So much damage has been done by COVID and the necessary response to COVID, and now we are seeing a rebound in COVID infections  as Flu season begins – a double-dip recession ?
No way !     Really ?   How about recessions in Jan. 1980 – July 1980 and July 1981 – Nov. 1982.
At some point, the charade will end – no more hype by the Fed, the Administration and Street. That’s when the stock market will thumb its nose at the algos and head south for the winter.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will present his position on the economy and trade  today.  He is mainly responsible for stock market bubble #1 Jan.2019 – Feb. 2020, and bubble #2 – March 2020 to the present.
Appointed to his prestigious office by President Trump, it can be assumed he will  attempt to inflate the bubble further.    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
RECENT POSTS:
Monday October 6, 20920 (DJIA: 27,682) “Will Covid Surge Impact a Struggling Economy”
What to do: Decide your tolerance for risk and raise the amount of cash necessary to cover it….and don’t worry about what other investors are doing, don’t listen to the boasts about their scores.– stay with your plan. The new normal is the flash crash, a swift plunge of 10%  12%.  So far, most have recovered within a reasonable amount of time – don’t count on that happening next time.

Why didn’t the market take a bigger hit Friday ?  Probably because so much of the trading is computerized (algorithms) and what happened Friday isn’t plugged into the algos’ programming – the difference between a computer and the human brain.
I expect a stimulus bill of $2.0 trillion before Nov. 3 (of course).  I think it is built into the market’s prices, but in truth, passage would confirm my belief that another wave of  unemployment, closings, bankruptcies, and another slump in business looms.
Possible, is an announcement by the NBER that the recession that started in February is over, owing to the sharp rebound in the economy from severely depressed levels earlier in the year.
Q3 GDP will be announced at  the end of October, and show a  rebound of more than 25% at an annual rate, but that is from depressed levels.  Close to 30 million Americans are on the unemployment rolls. While 857,000 jobs were added in September, that is down from 1.4 million added in August and 1.7 million in July.  Reportedly, more layoffs are planned for retail, airlines, financial services, and oil.
Consumer Confidence (current and future expectations) is rebounding sharply from severely depressed levels earlier in the year, but still below peaks hit prior to COVID-19.
But COVID is surging again in New York, California, Texas, Wisconsin, Florida and the upper mid-west, especially in states that are re-opened and students are returning to school..
Just about the time it appeared safe to step out to pre-COVID lifestyles, risk raises its ugly head.
BOTTOM LINE:
        Today’s rebound is suspect since the presidency is in question, and COVID is on the rampage again.  President Trump’s joyride-photo-op  yesterday raises questions about his stability.  Congress has not been kept in the loop on his condition, a serious risk to national security.  BIZZARE !
This kind of irresponsible, immature behavior has never been experienced with past presidents.   But like I noted above, the Street’s algos are not programmed for the dire risks such behavior poses. Maybe we won’t pay a price, however based on time-tested measures of value, stocks are historically overvalued.
        But the Street isn’t phased by outlandish domestic and international events.  That’s arrogance, and you know what that precedes.
…………………………………………………………………………
Near-term Resistance/support levels for the market indexes.
Resistance begins at: DJIA:27,900; S&P 500: 3,373; Nasdaq Comp.: 11,176
Support is: DJIA: 27,720; S&P 500: 3,355; Nasdaq Comp.: 11,110
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Follow up to last week’s projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/2
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     265
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,199
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      116
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      520
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:   1,486
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:     425
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:    210
Key near-term resistance:
 

FB:262*; AMZN:3,140; AAPL: 114*; NFLX: 507*; GOOG: 1,466*; TSLA: 420; MSFT: 207*        * Update

 

Friday October 2, 2020 (DJIA: 27,816) “Trump Has COVID – Wall Street Selling”
President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump  have tested positive for COVID-19.  Futures are down sharply.  Ironic !
This is a major uncertainty, not like the assassination of President John Kennedy, but an uncertainty of a much different kind.  Coming 31 days before the election, the question rises, does he resign, keep campaigning, or be hospitalized with the outcome uncertain.
WHAT TO EXPECT:
The assassination of President John Kennedy was final, Trump’s infection with COVID will be a lingering uncertainty with Vice President Pence taking charge temporarily or permanently depending.
With Kennedy, the market found a level that discounted the event. However, expect a probing volatility going forward this time with rallies and sell-offs in response to news of Trump’s condition. I was a broker in a small office in Pennsylvania  when Kennedy was assassinated, taking calls from panicking investors, many not even my own.  “Sell Everything, I heard”
I expect a sell off at the open, a rally around midday as the Street thinks this won’t be so bad, then a plunge into the close as we head into the weekend.
Generally, I see the DJIA  dropping to 27,140 by 10:00 a.m., rallying to 27,420 at mid-day then a sell-off to 26,700 – 26,800 at the close.
Near-term RISK is:  DJIA: 25,000; S&P 500: 3,000; Nasdaq Comp.: 9,750.
If he wasn’t so untruthful during his tenure, there wouldn’t be any question that this is a ploy to  curry favor and votes.   Callous  of me ?
        No one has been more callous over the last 5 years than Trump, and especially this year as tens of thousands of AMERICANS have died unnecessarily due to his denial that COVID-19 needed immediate attention early in 2020.
The Street is hoping for another stimulus, and I think it will get one, probably running around $2.0 trillion. Democrats were pushing for a much higher one ($3.5 T), but will settle for less. The Republicans need to appease what few real conservatives are left and clearly cannot afford not to go along with one.
What does all this say ?
IMHO, it says our economy will run out of steam without one.
While the economy had rebounded sharply in recent months, it did so from a severely depressed level and with the help of unprecedented stimulus.
Would all this stimulus be taking place if this wasn’t a presidential election year  ?
BOTTOM LINE:
The futures point to a big sell-off at the open.  That’s what  a sudden uncertainty does to the stock market, and especially one as overvalued as this one. Anyone who has heeded my warnings to raise cash will:
1) not get hurt as much as if they were fully invested.
2) will be in a position to buy in at lower prices.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Thursday October 1, 2020 (DJIA: 27,781) “Stimulus Bill $2.0Trillion Likely – Sell the News”
The economy is still rebounding from a severely depressed Q2.  This is expected, the key will be Q4 and beyond, since COVID-19 is spiking again after crushing the economy.   Damage will take a long time to repair.
The market was up yesterday mostly in response to improving economic numbers. ADP Employment: 749,000 jobs added vs. 650,000 projected; Chicago Business Activity index at 62.4, better than expected; Q2 GDP down 31.4% (ann.rate) an improvement from the last est. of -31.7%.  Q3 expected to be a plus 25 – 30% and reported in late October; Pending Home Sales up 8.8%.
I expect  a $2.0 trillion stimulus bill will be passed within two weeks. It’s a two-edged sword.  The Administration wants credit for it, but does not want to help the Democrats who will likely take over the White House, possibly the Senate.
Most likely, the stimulus bill is already built  into stock prices and a sell-off would follow its announcement.
     I personally believe Vice President Biden thrashed President Trump in the Tuesday debate.  Confirmation bias will influence some voters to conclude otherwise.
So far, I am wrong about the Street’s wish list. Maybe yesterday’s solid jump was a relief that Biden will win and the dangerously  unpredictable  President is on his way out.  Afterall, what else can the Street and corporate America get after a huge, unjustified tax cut and the gutting of regs, many of which were originally designed to protect individuals and improve quality of life.
Maybe they will throw Trump under the bus now that they have what they want.
BOTTOM LINE:
    The market indexes will press higher today, but are challenged to  recover all that has been lost since their peak on September 2 at DJIA: 29,199; S&P 500: 3,588; Nasdaq Comp.: 10,913.
Resistance begins at:  DJIA: 28,077; S&P 500: 3,401; Nasdaq Comp.: 11,317
Support begins at        DJIA: 27,677; S&P 500: 3,349; Nasdaq Comp.: 11,147
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Wednesday  September 30, 2020 (DJIA: 27,542) “Trump Got His Fat Ass Kicked – Now That’s Bullish !”
Looks like a lower market at the open, after Vice President Joe Biden was a far better debater of issues last night than President Trump who did a pretty good job of reminding viewers how rude and uninformed he is.
Anyone paying attention will accept the country (world) cannot afford four more years of blundering. As noted below, the stock market is up as a result of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s  actions in 2019 and this year.  A Trump appointee to the prestigious job, Powell has assured Trump the stock market was strong, or at least so far.
Actually a Biden win would be bullish if it weren’t for the fact the stock market is so overvalued to begin with.  Decency, truthfulness and respect for the office of President of the United States would be restored, our global defenses would  be fortified, rioting curtailed, healthcare expanded, and the playing field across the board leveled.
Most important, our democratic republic would no longer be under siege here and abroad as the rule of law becomes priority one.
Powell, a Trump Toady
      I have ranked on Fed Chair Jerome Powell as a Trump “Toady,” since January 2019, when he very subtly began hyping the market following Q4’s 20% plunge and near miss on a recession, clearly not something Republicans wanted prior to a key election year. Less subtle were interest three rate cuts in 2019, two in 2020  and a pledge in June for zero rates going forward  indefinitely.
Axios Markets’ Dion Rabouin confirmed my feelings yesterday, noting “the man behind booming U.S. asset prices is really Jerome Powell.  Rabouin goes on to say, “Powell’s decision to roll interest rates back to zero and provide markets with $3 trillion in liquidity has kept indexes hitting  record highs even as close to 30 million Americans collect unemployment benefits.”  According to some, Powell has violated the Fed’s founding charter, the Federal Reserve Act effectively nationalizing the market  for  government and corporate bonds.
Prior to the 21-day, 35% plunge in stock prices in February/March, Powell’s rhetoric and interest rate cuts triggered Bubble #1 (January 2019 – 2020, and since that flash crash has created Bubble #2 from February 2020 to September 3, 2020.
BOTTOM LINE:
One of  the Fed’s key responsibilities is to contain inflation. Since  there hasn’t been meaningful inflation for 38 years, it appears the Fed must justify its existence by managing stock and bond prices.
However, by doing so, it is artificially creating levels that are unjustified, which sets up a flash crash when something happens or the reality of overvalued prices triggers a sudden adjustment to levels that more realistically represent real values.
     Everyone is best served if the Fed finds something else to do that doesn’t set markets up for plunges that devastate investors.
I have said on a number of occasions, This is a phony economy, a phony stock market and a phony Administration. What is really bullish is, we have a chance to change that on November 3rd  with a Biden victory.
      Intitially, the stock market will need to find a more realistic level, valuewise.
It will be “roll up your sleeves time,” as competent people will be appointed to unfilled key positions, steps to address climate change and fortify our international business and defense relationships renewed, and  the country united  between people and a common goal.
That would be “BULLISH,” that’s a policy that would have legs well into the future.
…………………………………………………………………………………………..
Follow up to last week’s projection for leading growth stocks:
INITIAL RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good quick-hit trading opportunities, but they won’t hold next time down without stimulus.
Price: Close 9/16
                    RISK  Low  Mon. 9/27
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251         244     Close:     262
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907       2,871    Close:  3,144
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103         103    Close:      114
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437         466     Close:     493
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451       1,406   Close:  1,469
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377          407    Close:     419
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191          196     Close:    207
Key near-term resistance: FB:262; AMZN:3,251*; AAPL: 118; NFLX: 497; GOOG: 1,486; TSLA: 424; MSFT: 213. Without a breakthrough on COVID or a stimulus, these levels won’t hold.* Update
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Tuesday September 29, 2020 (DJIA: 27,584) “Extreme Volatility Ahead”
The three-day  rebound in the market is running into resistance, an area that produced more sellers than buyers  going back to September 3 when the DJIA peaked at 29,199, the S&P 500 at 3,588, and the Nasdaq Comp. at 12,074.
It took  a 9.1% drop in the DJIA, a 10.6% drop in the S&P 500, and a 12.9% drop in the Nasdaq Comp. to draw investors back into the market.
W are faced with the first of three presidential debates tonight. I am not sure what Wall Street wants at this point. They, and corporate America, got their
tax cuts and de-regulation of a number of industries,  a stacked Supreme Court, and the termination of long-standing international alliances, but what else can they hope for unless they think a country dangerously divided more than at any time since the Civil War, an out of control pandemic, the 10th Republican recession out of the last 11 recessions, and the most corrupt, poorly staffed administration in memory does it for them.  Careful what you wish for !
A Biden win would result in a temporary slide in stock prices from the most overvalued stock market  in history as governance returns to respectability, international relationships are mended, COVID-19 is addressed with an effective plan, and this is BIG – the lying at the top STOPS !
I don’t care what value the Street puts on that, but the gutting of our democratic republic has to STOP.
BOTTOM LINE:
Uncertainty about the outcome of the election will generate a lot of volatility up to and beyond  November 3.  Concern for an undecided outcome due to Republican legal challenges in a number of key states could trigger a free-fall in stock prices.
This is a nation of laws.  Erode that any further, and you have a banana republic  – chaos, conflict, further division, a economic depression – EVERYTHING OUR FOREIGN ADVERSARIES WANT.  Are these people agents of a foreign country, or do they just act ones ?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Follow up to last week’s projection for leading growth stocks:
INITIAL RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good quick-hit trading opportunities, but they won’t hold next time down without stimulus.
Price: Close 9/16
                    RISK  Low  Mon. 9/27
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251         244     Close:     256
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907       2,871    Close:  3,174
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103         103    Close:      115
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437         466     Close:     490
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451       1,406   Close:  1,464
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377          407    Close:     421
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191          196     Close:    209
Key near-term resistance: FB:262; AMZN:3,251*; AAPL: 118; NFLX: 497; GOOG: 1,486; TSLA: 424; MSFT: 213. Without a breakthrough on COVID or a stimulus, these levels won’t hold.* Update
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Monday September 28, 2020 (DJIA 27,173)  “Rally Needs: Stimulus, Covid, Recession”
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said last Thursday the U.S. recession is over, and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard agrees, saying the economy could fully recover by year-end.
       However, it won’t be official until the National Bureau of Economic Research’s (NBER) business cycle dating committee says so, and that could come Days before the November 3 elections, or not for months.
       All this with 30 million Americans on unemployment, entire industries on life support, and COVID infections on the rise going into flu season.
       As expected, the rebound from a severely depressed economy has been surprisingly sharp, but that is normal, especially since the economy was juiced by an unprecedented stimulus by the Fed and Congress.
Unless Congress approves another stimulus,  the economy will now be off the government teet and we will then get a better idea of how good it is running.
 Democrats in the U.S. house plan to pass a $2.4 trillion stimulus package shortly which will extend the economic rebound. Without it, it looks like an extension of the recession that started in March or we slide into a second recession, a “W”  rebound, not an “L”.
       Bubble # 2 may have  been pricked on September 3. It’s too early to tell.
A technical rally is justified after the sharp plunges in the market averages of DJIA (-9%, S&P 500: 11%, Nasdaq Comp.: 14%).
Was it something more than technical ?
Guess we’ll see.
I would be surprised if we didn’t get a stimulus package before Nov. 3. I also expect an announcement of a treatment  and/or vaccine for COVID though availability won’t be for many months.  It could be the  real McCoy, or Administration hype.
GOOD news !  Fortune 100 companies are pledging $3.3 Billion to reverse inequality  after the death of George Floyd,  including housing, health care and community change.  Credit due for people’s outrage and mostly peaceful demonstrations.
BOTTOM LINE:
     Big rally at the open.  The key will be if it can hold. A one-day rally failure with the market giving up all its gain would suggest a test of recent lows or another leg down.
I expect the market to encounter  major resistance starting at:
DJIA: 27,615; S&P 500: 3,347; Nasdaq Comp.: 11,091.
That would be technical. News on a stimulus, COVID, recession could pump it higher.
Just bear in mind, based on historical precedent, this market was   seriously overvalued before COVID struck in Q1, and is even more overvalued now with corporate earnings in a tailspin.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>….
Follow up to last week’s projection for leading growth stocks:
INITIAL RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good quick-hit trading opportunities, but they won’t hold next time down without stimulus.
Price: Close 9/16
                    RISK  Low  Mon. 9/24
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251         244     Close:     255
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907       2,871    Close:  3,095
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103         103    Close:      112
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437         466     Close:     483
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451       1,406   Close:  1,445
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377          407    Close:     407
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191          196     Close:    208
Key near-term resistance: FB:262; AMZN:3,158; AAPL: 118; NFLX: 497; GOOG: 1,486; TSLA: 424; MSFT: 213. Without a breakthrough on COVID or a stimulus, these levels won’t hold
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
                                               
George Brooks
Investor’s first read.com
brooksie01@aol.com
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.