Spike Down If Rally Fails

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA:  16,384
S&P 500:  1,958
Nasdaq  Comp.;4,827
Russell 2000:   1,163
Monday:  Sept. 21,  2015   9:03 a.m.

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 TODAY:

      The market will rebound today, part of that due to the Friday expiration of  index futures, index options, stock options and stock futures.

      Last week also featured a Thursday decision by the Fed to delay an interest rate increase, which resulted in a sharp sell off.

      How much of that sell off can be attributed to the Fed decision and the expire of futures and options will be better known this week.

      If the Street  sees the Fed’s inaction as bullish, as it has for years, the market will recover Friday’s loss.

      If the Street abandons its ridiculous  addiction to Fed policy and begins to focus on other factors such as corporate earnings, valuations, economies here and abroad, and international tensions, stock prices will have to find a comfort level at lower levels.

      Failure to follow through on the upside today will  result in another slide and quite possibly a very ugly spike down later this week.

RESISTANCE today: DJIA: 16,469; S&P 500:1,966 ; Nasdaq Comp.:4,851.
SUPPORT today: DJIA:16,367 ; S&P 500:1,956; Nasdaq Comp.:4,825

     These support levels assume a rally will hold. They become invalid if the rally fails  during the day., especially if it fails before 10:45. If that develops, support becomes  DJIA: 16,217; S&P 500: 1,943; Nasdaq Comp.:4,796.

      Futures/options expire Friday will skew results somewhat today, since traders didn’t know what the Fed would announce until 2:00 p.m. Thursday.

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NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

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MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  September 18, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 16,288; a more extreme risk is 15,814. Near-term upside potential is 16,548.  Note: A drop below DJIA 15,713  would be very bearish.
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NEWS ENVIRONMENT    

        The following news has been  a contributor to recent market weakness, though most of these issues have been with us for weeks/months. 

-Chinese stock markets worst drop since 2007,  currently rebounding

-European stocks on verge of bear market (Germany’s DAX off 20%)

-U.S. stocks recovering from ugly crunch

-Commodities at 16-year low, but oil stabilizing.

-currency meltdown

      NOTE: Some of the Street’s pundits are arguing that this market behavior is unreasonable since the U.S. economy is doing well, if not great. Bear in mind, the stock market has historically been an early warning signal for the beginning of a recession, leading by as little as two months and as much as  13 months.

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  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but in a correction  into the fall.
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market has rebounded from August’s “flash crash”  and is approaching an area of resistance.
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Having broken major support levels, the market is probing for a level that discounts uncertainties and negatives.
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Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

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George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

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