Speculation Heating Up

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 18,119
S&P 500: 2,122
Nasdaq  Comp.:  5,153 
Russell 2000: 1,292

Tuesday, June 23, 2015   8: 12 a.m.

TODAY:
    The four month trading range intact since February for the DJIA (17,600 to 18,300) and  S&P 500: (2,040 to 2,130) remains intact, but the Nasdaq Comp. started to break out last Thursday, stalled Friday, then broke out yesterday.  A trading range for the Russell 2000 has been less clearly defined with the index of smaller companies  pressing upward over the last two weeks with an impressive “gap” open yesterday.

     This strength in the Nasdaq and Russell stocks signals an increase in the Street’s  preference for taking increased risk to achieve greater gains, a classic characteristic of later stage bull markets.

     Resistance today starts at DJIA: 18,134; S&P 500:2,136;  Nasdaq Comp.:5,174;

SUMMARY

THE FED

      The guessing game continues – Will the Fed bump interest rates up in September, or later ?

      Obviously, their decision will key on the strength of the U.S. economy.

Existing Home Sales for May were solid with a 5.1% jump at an annual rate (9.2% year/year) – Not bad.

      Durable Goods come at 8:30 today, FHFA House Prices at 9:00, PMI Manufacturing at 9:45, New Home Sales and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing activity  at 10:00.

GREECE

Yesterday, Greece’s economic minister , Giorgios Stathakis, indicated a breakthrough was possible.     While Greece’s woes have been a drag, a settlement would remove lift a lid of uncertainty over the market. Default would roil international markets. …………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  June 5, a reasonable risk is 17,763; a more extreme risk is 17,556 The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 18,160.

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KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
Q2 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Recent strength in employment and housing industry shifting concern from a weakening in the U.S. economy to enough strength to prompt an early bump up in interest rates.

-Greece

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

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*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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