Q3 Earnings to Test Bull’s Confidence

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA:  17,131
S&P 500: 2,017
Nasdaq  Comp:4,838
Russell 2000: 1,164

Tuesday:  Oct. 13, 2015   9:09 a.m.

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TODAY:

      Trading was light yesterday with federal government offices and some banks closed for Columbus Day.  The DJIA was up 47 points, but that was accounted for by just four stocks (Goldman Sachs:GS, Visa:V, United Healthcare: UNC, and Nike: NKE).

      That is changing today as traders return and Q3 earnings reports begin to hit the Street, which expects disappointing results.

       There are no economic reports of significance today.  Tomorrow we get Consumer Prices and the PPI-FD  at 8:30, followed by Business Inventories at 10:00 a.m,, none of which are game changers.     

      Watch for buying on any weakness.  If the bulls jump in quickly, more upside is likely.  There is room to run higher, but more sellers will be encountered as the market rises.      

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SUPPORT today:  DJIA: 17,054; S&P 500:2,009; Nasdaq Comp.:4,812

RESISTANCE today: DJIA:16,968; S&P 500: 1,998;  Nasdaq Comp.:4,792

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NOTE:  There is no FOMC meeting scheduled for November, and no press conference scheduled for October. If a press conference is suddenly scheduled for October, it will be a tip off to an announcement of a rate increase, likewise  for a meeting/press conference is scheduled for November.     >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

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MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  October 9, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 16,990 a more extreme risk is 16,876. Near-term upside potential is 17,377. 
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  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but “at risk” of  a bear market.
  • OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 35%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Encouraged by the prospect the Fed won’t raise interest rates this year due to softness in the economy, the stock market has rebounded from a support level established after the August 24 “flash crash.” It is now beginning to probe into an area from which it broke down in August where the upside should be more challenging.
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Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

*Stock Trader’s Almanac ( New edition should be out – get it !)

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George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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