Q1 Earnings – Reward and Punishment

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,977
S&P 500: 2,092
Nasdaq  Comp.:4,988
Russell 2000:    1,265
Tuesday, April 14, 2015   9:07 a.m.

CONCLUSION:

   The uncertainty that accompanies quarterly earnings reports will dominate the stock market in coming weeks. Report periods can be hazardous, since stocks can be punished even with a report that “beats” projections.

   Today’s support is DJIA: 17,906  (S&P 500: 2,086; Nasdaq Comp.:4,963).

   The Bulls have a shot at March highs of DJIA 18,205; S&P 500: 2,114; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,042; Russell 2000: 1,268, but selling like that which hit the market yesterday can be expected to increase as the market enters levels that  stopped the market in March.

   Bear in mind the DJIA, S&P 500, the Nasdaq Comp.  are locked in a three month trading range  (DJIA 17,600 – 18,200; S&P 500: 2,040 – 2,115; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,845 – 5,040). The smaller company index (Russell 2000) is more upbeat, and in fact rose yesterday when the DJIA, S&P and Nasdaq declined, c suggesting the Street is seeking greater risk. 

KEY FACTORS: 

-Q1 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.

Concern that the U.S. economy is beginning to slump.

COMMENTS:

There is a lot of money being  shifted around, options written/exercised , tape painting and outright manipulation of stock prices to contend with. Sounds like, looks like, and acts like  …… a casino. But, it is what it is, and that is why “timing” is critical.   

     Short-term investors can get chewed up  by  tight volatility and whipsaw. Longer term investors, who position themselves tactically are rewarded, that is until a nasty break slashes paper gains, a bear market wipes them out all together.  This suggests the need for  profit taking along the way and a cash reserve of 20%.

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment decisions in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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