More Year-End Cross Currents – Good and Bad

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 24,211
S&P 500: 2,636
Nasdaq  Comp.:  6,812
Russell 2000: 1,520
Friday, Dec. 8,    9:15 a.m.
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      THINKING AHEAD:  While some people are freeloading, many simply do not have, and never will have, the resources to achieve a decent standard of living. What is being overlooked here is what is looming as our GREATEST EMPLOYMENT PROBLEM  ever.   Automation, computer software solutions, and Artificial Intelligence will replace millions of jobs. Until 10 years ago, these innovations created as many jobs as they replaced – that is no longer true. 
       Job openings will exist, but will require advanced training to fill, shutting out an estimated 20% – 30% of the workforce.

       Young adults are highly skilled in technology, the generation preceding them aren’t.  Worse yet, corporations are releasing employees in their 50s, because they lack the skills needed and are too expensive to carry on the payroll.
       Bottom line: The need for social services will increase dramatically.
       I can certainly see the need to streamline our tax structure, and give corporations an incentive to spend other than buy back shares of stock, but a massive tax cut does not address future problems, it makes them worse.
       This is all about ideology, not planning for the future.
       Granted, automation, software innovations and Artificial Intelligence stand to fatten the bottom line of corporations, but a healthy base of spenders is necessary to boost the top line.  Some 70% of the economy is consumer spending.  That base must be cultivated, not diminished.       
TODAY
      No shutdown !  That does not come as a surprise.  The Dec. 8 deadline for a spending bill has been extended to Dec. 22, and expect that to be extended into 2018, though it would seriously challenge the “extraordinary measures “ applied to keep the government operating.
      As I have been saying, December is a month where a lot of whacky things happen. An upward bias is normal, especially in bullish years as institutions scramble to put money to work in time for their year-end report of portfolio positions, hopefully a selling  point to recruit new clients in the new year.
       Some big winners will drop as profits are taken, losers will get hammered as shareholders  sell to offset gains, but some losers will rebound as bargain hunters step in.
        The Employment Situation report came at 8:30 today and shows 228,000 jobs were added in November, in line with projections. Consumer Sentiment will be reported at 10 o’clock.
      None of this matters a whole lot.  The tax bill rules, and has ruled for a year, driving the S&P 500 up 23% since the 2016 Presidential Election, bringing the total bull market gain since early  March 2009 to 295%. That compares with the bull market record for the S&P 500 of plus 304.26% between 1990 and 1998, a total of 93 months.  The current bull market is 106 months old.

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SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:24,183; S&P 500:2,634; Nasdaq Comp.:6,827
RESISTANCE “today” DJIA:24,301; S&P 500:2,645; Nasdaq Comp.:6,836

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POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
Trump Administration dominos starting to tumble ?

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IMHO: THE  TAX BILL IS A DISGRACE. IT WIDENS THE GAP BETWEEN UPPER INCOME LEVELS AND THE GREAT MAJORITY OF AMERICANS. 
       MAKING CORPORATION TAX CUTS PERMANENT ARE DESIGNED TO CREATE A MASSIVE DEFICIT, FAR GREATER THAN THE ADMINISTRATION’S $1.5 TRILLION.  
       REPUBLICAN LONG-TERM GOAL:  HUGE SLASHES IN SOCIAL SERVICE BENEFITS IN THE FUTURE,  INCLUDING SOCIAL SECURITY AND MEDICARE WHEN THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT CAN’T PAY ITS BILLS AND CAN’T RAISE TAXES TO DO SO. REPUBLICANS CANNOT BE TRUSTED WITH TOTAL CONTROL.
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COMPASSIONLESS: What is it with the well-heeled powerbase of the Republican Party  ?  Why do they want to deny people of modest means medical care, needed social benefits, an affordable education and a minimally comfortable retirement ?  Do they want it all for themselves ?  How Christian is favoring the rich over the poor ?
     
Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) says there is no money to fund the Children’s Health Insurance program (CHIP) which expired Oct. 1.
      Mic.com quotes Hatch as whining, about  it as a low-cost health insurance plan  for children of low-income families,  saying,  “I have a rough time wanting to spend billions and billions and trillions of dollars to help people who won’t help themselves, won’t lift a finger and expect the Federal government to do everything.”   Yeah, right, Orrin. These impoverished, ill kids are always looking for a handout.
       What does this have to do with the stock market ?
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“He had it coming, he had it coming… he only had himself to blame” (Chicago – Cell Block Tango):   THERE IS DOWNSIDE RISK FOR WOMEN OF DISCLOSURES OF SEXUAL IMPROPRIETIES BY MEN: I am 100% for exposing these predators, it’s long overdue and worth the price of what may be the result.  Clearly there will be less abuse in and out of the workplace, but it may result in less willingness to hire and/or promote women. There will be a backlash, but women have demonstrated the ability to persevere against great odds before, and I suppose after such backlash and these creeps will get what’s coming to them.
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POTENTIAL BREAKTHROUGH:  Is Michael Flynn now cooperating with the Mueller Commission ? According the Daily Beast, The New York Times and other publications,  Flynn has withdrawn from a joint defense agreement, indicating he may be cooperating with Special Counsel, Robert Mueller III.
      Joint defense agreements  are pacts  between attorneys  for multiple targets in criminal cases where information is shared while maintaining the confidences of all clients, avoiding conflicts of interest, comparing notes, dividing tasks and avoiding duplication. According to the Daily Beast, the main advantage of these agreements is information is protected by attorney client privilege in which the decide to  help each other by not cooperating with the authorities.  By withdrawing from the joint defense agreement, Flynn may have decided to cut a deal with Muller in exchange for leniency  covering a host of crimes.
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      I keep Fox Business News TV on by my desk during the day, since it has better data coverage than CNBC. I have it on “mute” since I can’t endure the senseless Republican hype.  Neil Cavuto hosts a portion of the show. While decidedly right-leaning, Neil is tolerable compared with his co-host, Stuart Varney, Varney & Co, who is constantly waxing right wing blither.
       I was a frequent guest analyst on CNBC-TV in the 1990s. It was different then. It was one-on-one with a lot of questions, but an independent without major firm backing like me had a chance to get some visibility.  The times Cavuto interviewed me, I sensed he was Republican, but not hard core, which is also the case today. He’s good, not given to partyline hype.
       What’s more, for some time, I sensed he was uncomfortable with the Trump administration and last week it came out per a report from “The HILL.”  Trump couldn’t resist tweeting about  LaVar Ball and Senator Jeff Flake, at a time more important presidential issues demanded attention.  Cavuto, criticized Trump for “using a bazooka to respond to a pea shooter.” “Is it really necessary,” he asked, adding, “Keep tweeting stuff like that, Mr. President, and those tax cuts just could be toast.” Cavuto then said, “the last time I checked, you are the president of the United States, why don’t you act like it ?”
      Whoa ! Why would a broadcaster with 25 years experience, a big name, in a comfortable time slot, lecture the president, and possibly rankle his party ?  Is this just another sign that Trump’s support is crumbling.
      Neil is a throwback to the days when most Republicans were more reasonable, not extremists. It’s good to see him say, “Enough.”
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SPUTNICK’S Back: Russia’s hacking and invasion of Twitter and Facebook are  America’s present day “Sputnick” challenge.
     The world was stunned in 1957 when the Soviet Union (Russia) launched the first unmanned satellite to orbit the earth. In 1961, the Soviet’s  launched cosmonaut Yuri Gagarin who became the first man to orbit the earth. This was the catalyst for President Kennedy’s space program designed to ultimately land a man on the moon, which was done on July 20, 1969 by Apollo II.
      America is just now finding out how deeply Russia has weaponized our social media and computer software programs at all levels. According to The New Republic’s December issue,  Russia’s “theory of war allows you to defeat the enemy without ever having to touch him.”
      The big question surrounding Russia’s ability to hack into Twitter (TWTR)  and Facebook (FB) is, did they have help from the Trump team to tilt the election in his favor ? 
       Whether this manipulation continues, depends on how quickly our nation responds. So far Trump denies it even happened – duh.
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TRUMP VOTER FRAUD COMMISSION is being SUED:
Matthew Dunlap, Maine’s Secretary of State is accusing the Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity of essentially “lacking integrity.”  It’s all about shutting Dunlap, a Democrat, out of the process and lack of transparency to the public.  What else can be expected of a SCAM, designed to data mine all 50 state’s voter records for political advantage and ensure the continuance of Republican‘s voter suppression efforts.
Have these people no shame ?  Americans ??  Or is this a bloodless coup ?  NOT ON OUR WATCH !
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Brian Benczkowski was nominated by President Trump in June to be U.S. Assistant Attorney General for the Criminal Division. My  Sept. 15 post called attention to this since he previously represented one of Russia’s largest banks Russia’s Alfa Bank. Having  advanced out of the Senate Judiciary Committee, his nomination is pending full Senate confirmation. He once served under Jeff Sessions. If confirmed, he pledged independence, recusing himself for two years from any dealings with alfa Bank.  Sen. Feinstein voted against Benczkowski concerned that he never served as a federal prosecutor and the fact he would sit in on  meetings with special counsel Robert Mueller with Russia probe. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., was concerned his major qualification was his connection with Sessions.
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Mercer on the runBannon and Breitbart bankroller, Robert Mercer is rapidly severing financial ties to Breitbart News and support of Steve Bannon and alt-right’s Milo Yiannopoulos. Mercer was a major supporter of Sen. Ted Cruz’s effort to gain the Republican nomination last year, but switched his allegiance to Trump when he won the nomination.
      In my March 21 post, I wrote, “Years from now, I suspect Mercer will be relaxing at his Long Island waterfront retreat, Owl’s Nest, or on his 200-foot yacht, Sea Owl, and look back over his illustrious career tarnished  by one regret – he backed the biggest con job in our nation’s history.”

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IT’S NEVER THE GUNS !
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Six states (Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Utah, Wisconsin),  are planning to require poverty stricken people on Medicaid  to get jobs  or lose the coverage. Maine, Utah and Wisconsin want to put a time limit on coverage, the latter wants to drug-test people. Excluded: People with long-tern disabilities, the elderly, and children.  Isn’t it bad enough these people are in poverty ? 
      Vox Media reports that 9.8 million Medicaid recipients  don’t have jobs  due to: Illness/disabled (35%), retired (8%), taking care of home or family (28%), going to school (18%), cannot find work (8%). The remaining 60.2 million Americans on Medicaid work full-time of part-time.  I’m not sure what’s the Republican beef here.
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      Paul Manafort and associate and Trump campaign aide, Rick Gates, were indicted Monday and pleaded not guilty to twelve counts, including conspiracy against the U.S., conspiracy to launder money, unregistered agent of foreign principal, false and misleading  Foreign Agent Registration Act, false statements, and seven counts of failure to file reports of foreign bank  and financial accounts.
      According to the Daily Beast, Gates is now working for Tom Barrack, a wealthy Trump supporter who led the presidential inaugural committee. The Beast reports that Gates is not liked by Trump, but accompanies Barrack when he visits Trump at the White House.  Gates joined the lobbying firm, Davis Manafort in 2006 when the firm had a client, Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska, who had close ties to Vladimir Putin. In 2016, Deripaska accused Gates and Manafort of taking $19 million intended for investments.  Manafort and Gates joined the Trump campaign in 2016, all this according to the Daily Beast’s article June 14, 2017.
Biggest Story of the Day:
      The New Republic reports that former Trump campaign aide, George Papadopoulos pleaded guilty on October 5 to one count of lying to the FBI about his interactions with “foreign nationals, who he thought  were connected with senior Russian government officials.  The New Republic notes this “plea” suggests he is cooperating with Mueller.
     Reason.com reports Papadoppulos  met with an unnamed professor  in March 2016 before assuming the role as foreign policy adviser to Trump. The professor claimed to have “dirt” on Hillary Clinton, including thousands of emails. He then shared the information with the Trump campaign.

      The plea links the Trump campaign  with attempts to deal with the Russian government.  He is considered a “proactive cooperator,” which means he took an active role for months in obtaining information, possibly wearing a wire. This could be a BIG story, he may have some top Trump people on tape.
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TRUMP TO FIRE MUELLER ?        If President Trump wants to fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller, he would first have to fire  Rod Rosenstein, Deputy Attorney General – but….
      
Obviously,  firing Mueller would smack of  “consciousness of guilt,” which  could lead to impeachment proceedings by the House, and/or increase pressure for Trump to resign, but may be necessary.  With Rosenstein out of the way,  associate attorney general, Rachel Brand, a conservative nominated and confirmed by the Senate in February, would take over. If she refuses to fire Mueller, Dana Boente, U.S. attorney general for the Eastern District of Virginia would have taken over, but he has now announced  plans to give up his position, which handles high-profile national security, espionage and leak cases. Upon confirmation  he will be replaced by Boeing vice president  and assistant general counsel, John Demers.  Does this mean Rosenstein will be fired and Brand resign, because she won’t fire Mueller, but Trump nominee, Demers will ? While Brand is a highly competent conservative attorney who supported Sen. Cruz in 2016, firing Mueller may not be something she wants to be part of, and she may have let that be known.  This case stands to eclipse Watergate where President Nixon tried to fire special prosecutor Archibald Cox but Attorney General, Elliot Richardson and two top deputies refused to follow the directive,  and were fired.  Next in line was Robert Bork, a conservative who fired Cox, but it may have cost Bork a chance at appointment to the U.S. Supreme Court later in his career.
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TRUMP’S PARDON POWER
    
The President has the power to grant conditional pardons; to commute sentences; remit fines and forfeitures; and grant amnesty. This power can be exercised at any time after the offense has been committed, before conviction of after. Pardons cannot be limited by or controlled by legislative action. (US Legal.com).
     The President cannot pardon people for “state” crimes, and it is doubtful he can pardon himself.
      Can the Mueller investigation survive Mueller’s firing ?

Slate.com’s July 21 article, “Trump can’t Escape the States,” says “YES.”

1-A state [NY] could hire Mueller and team.
2-State attorneys general could use their quo warranto power to investigate Trump’s organization for fraud and money laundering from Russian sources.
3-A Congressional committee (Senate Intelligence Committee) could hire Mueller or create a Joint select Committee.
4-Congress could pass a new veto-proof independent counsel statute.
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THE GREAT AMERICAN EXPERIMENT UNDER SEIGE:  Not since the Civil War has the spirit and future of our nation been at such great risk, from within.  This  administration, Congress and U.S. Supreme Court is surgically dismembering  efforts over many years to ensure the safety  and well being of “all” Americans.
     The sooner, Americans recognize these are not genuine Republican conservatives, but extremists determined dismantle that which has been achieved over the years and replace it with “their” brand  of a  quasi-fascist state.  Ben Franklin was right when asked what kind of government  the Founding Fathers had given us.  “A Republic, if you can keep it,” was his response.
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1,318 FALSE or MISLEADING CLAIMS (LIES) by President Trump since being sworn in as President, January 20, 263 days ago. The tally is kept by the Washington Post’s Fact Checker, which breaks all lies down into 24 categories. Please, someone wake me up, tell me this is not happening….and reassure me Americans aren’t in denial.
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ADD ANOTHER LIE TO THE 1,318 referred to above.  Yesterday, Trump touted tax cuts for the middle class in Pennsylvania, saying the typical American household would get a $4,000 pay raise, and “it could be a lot more than that.”  Not mentioned is the savings would be over an eight year period, $500 a year.
     The Tax Policy Center (TPC) claims tax reform as we know it today heavily favors the rich, boosting after-tax income for the top 1% by 8.5% on average, while the bottom 95% would get a boost of 1.2%
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WRECK NAFTA ?  Bloomberg’s “The Editors” seems to think so, pointing to the disruption of long-established supply chains that would raise costs, and increase US imports.  “The evidence is clear, Nafta has helped all its members, including the U.S., achieve greater efficiency and higher living standards,” Bloomberg notes, adding undermining it or causing its collapse would  cause enormous disruption for businesses and labor pools in all three  countries.

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WOULD ANYONE WANT their spouse to lie repeatedly ?, their child ?, mother ?, father ?, minister ?, child’s teacher ?,  coach ?, employer ?.  IF NOT, why would they support President Trump who is on record with telling4.5 lies per day, 1,000 lies since his inauguration on January 20 ?

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PARDONS:   Expect Trump to attempt to pardon anyone he wants, including himself. It’s a way out of facing responsibility very much like dodging the draft. Like when he justified his numerous bankruptcies, saying he only used U.S. laws to his advantage.  Well, “pardons” are his prerogative, in many, not all cases. He would take advantage of whatever loophole to avoid consequences, sort of like dodging the draft, or did I already say that ?
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TAX REFORM BENEFITTING WEALTHY AS WELL AS TRUMP ?  Depends on who you ask. Trump says  he wont’ benefit  – Add that to his 1,000 lies that have been documented since his inauguration.  Everything I read indicates the little guy gets screwed.  But isn’t it the little guy/girl who is responsible for his election to the Presidency.  Tough break guys, and girls – next time leave your confirmation bias at the door and vote your interest !
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Trump, Bannon Gone By 2019  (Investor’s first read:  3/21/2017)
      Right winger and Breitbart grad, Sebastian Gorka is now gone,  Gorka’s  exit closely follows the departure of Steve Bannon, another  Breitfart grad,  hopefully leading to the firing  of Stephen Miller, a brash, caustic right wing extremist and Breitbart supporter  cuddler. 

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TRUMP – EARLY STAGE DEMENTIA ?  
Don’t know. Clearly he has personality disorder (Narcissism), but the question is being asked more and more with references to speech, use of words, disorientation, irritability, memory loss, late night tweets, confusion, paranoia.

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TRUMP looking for a “Get Out Of Jail Free Card if the Feds close in?”
    Why not, he dodged military service with 5 deferments  during the Vietnam era (1964 – 1970).
     Reportedly, he has asked advisers about his power to pardon family members and himself  relating to Mueller’s investigation.
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W HAT HAPPENS WHEN THE INVESTIGATION IS COMPLETED ? If the Special Counselor  concludes it is “necessary and appropriate” he is authorized to prosecute federal crimes arising out of the investigation, which he does after submitting a report to the attorney general explaining his reasons.

REASONS NEEDED TO FIRE MUELLER:  Misconduct,  dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, good cause (??), violation of Department policies.
WOULD MUELLER BE REPLACED ? Unclear. If the Democrats controlled Congress they could appoint another Special Counselor
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  “Connect the Dots.” This investigation is open-ended
       Nigel Farage – President Trump- Hope Hicks, Jeffrey Sessions – Robert Mercer – Cambridge Analytics – Bannon- Carter Page – Kushner (Jared and Ivanka) – Eric Prince – Donald, Jr.  and Eric Trump – Wilbur Ross –  Michael Cohen – Ezra Cohen Watnick – Michael T. Flynn – Michael G. Flynn ( son)  – JD Gordon  –  Christopher Steele – Michael Caputo -Breitbart News – Roger Stone – Julian Assange – Paul Manafort – Rick Gates – Jill Stein – Sam Clovis –  Kellyanne and George Conway –Dana Rohrabacher – Bill Browder – Peter W. Smith (deceased: suicide), Paul Behrends – Boris Epshteyn, Ike Kaveladze, and  Russia’s alfa Group – Felix Sater – Rob Goldstone – alfa Group – Emin Agalarov – Sergey Gorkov –  Sergey Kislyak, ambassador to the U.S., Natalia Veselnitskaya, Oleg Deripaska all connect directly or indirectly to the Trump/Russia investigation and some have a connection to Brexit, as well.
      According to the “Observer,” Mercer’s Cambridge Analytica was connected with Canada’s AggregateIQ through an intellectual property agreement and worked together on the Brexit referendum. Aggregate is also a data mining company. While Mercer was a big supporter of Trump, there is no known connection between AggregateIQ and Trump’s campaign staff.

       The Palmer Report.com  recently reported that Peter W. Smith (recent suicide) sought to collude with Russian hackers stealing emails from Trump’s opposition while claiming to be working with Michael Flynn.

       Additionally, IMHO, Vice President Mike Pence simply had to be aware of what was happening in the campaign, but is being shielded because he is the second in command if  President Trump is impeached and convicted  or forced to resign. Stephen Miller, Joseph E. Schmitz may be of interest to the FBI for information they possess relating to the FBI investigation.
      According to CNN Politics,  Marc Kasowitz  represented Trump for personal and business matters for years. Worth noting, Kasowitz is defending Russian bank, OJSC Sberbank in U.S. court, as well as a Russian billionaire, Oleg Deripaska, who has close ties with the Kremlin.
       As of July 21, Kasowitz’s is no longer Trump’s personal attorney   
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     REMOVING TRUMP FROM  OFFICE

Can Section 4 of the 25th Amendment, U.S. Constitution – Remove Trump ?
      It’s a stretch. 
The key for his removal is ”that he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.”  Section 4 mentions nothing  that he is unfit, delusional, unbalanced, crazy,  impulsive, irrational, impaired, sociopathic, psychopathic, narcissistic.
      That would be the threshold that would have to be crossed if Trump is removed from office via Section 4 of the 25th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. There is no precedent

      It isn’t just Democrats, liberals, moderates and reasonable people who find Trump caustic, and dangerous, conservatives like George Will, David Brooks and Ross Douthart are also urging his removal.
      First, there are four ways to get rid of Trump – death, resignation, impeachment and Section 4 of the 25th Amendment.
      The procedure employing the 25th Amendment requires the Vice President and the majority of the cabinet of 15 (8) to vote to remove the president. They would submit their declaration in writing to the President pro tempore ( Sen. Orrin Hatch) and Speaker of the House (Paul Ryan) that the president is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, and the Vice President will immediately assume to office as acting president.
      However, the president may contend the move by submitting his own letter to the President pro tempore and Speaker of the House, that he believes he is capable of performing his duties, in which case he will resume the office of presidency.
       The Vice President and Cabinet members may then resubmit their declaration at which point Congress would vote within 48 hours if in session. If not, Congress  will act within 21 days where a two-thirds vote would be required to remove  him.  
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IMPEACHMENT
      A  Consult/Politico poll shows 43% of Americans want Congress to begin procedures for the impeachment of President Trump.

      The U.S. Constitution  enables Congress to remove a president for “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.” Intitially, the House votes on one or more articles of impeachment- if a majority vote is reached, he is impeached.  BUT, impeachment only means indictment. The Senate holds a trial overseen by the chief justice and Supreme Court. A group of House members serve as prosecutors and the Senate as jurors. If two-thirds of the senators find the president guilty, he is removed from office and the vice president takes over.

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Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
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*Business Insider – Bob Bryan  Nov.9, 2017
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George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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