Market Tracking Bad Seasonal Pattern

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:17,502
S&P 500:2,036
Nasdaq Comp.:4,768.;
Russell 2000: 1,075
Thursday: March 24, 2016 8:59 a.m.
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EARNINGS (Nothing new – re-read anyhow – important)
In two weeks Q1 earnings will begin to flow and are projected to be down, as are Q2 earnings. It doesn’t get more fundamental than earnings, yet other issues have dominated the attention of the Street so far this year.
April could be the “decider” on whether 2016 is a bear market year, or just a volatile one with big swings up and down as we near the November election.
S&P Capital IQ is projecting S&P 500’s earnings in Q1 to drop 7.0% and Q2 to drop 2.1%.* Earnings are projected to rise only 1.5%, down from a projection of plus 7.4% as recently as January.
Hopefully, a weak dollar will enable companies to post better numbers than currently projected. They will have to in order to justify the current level of stock prices.
TODAY:
The U.S. dollar has been strong for five days in a row, taking a toll on commodities and stocks. Some of its strength is a flight to safety after the Belgium bombings, but more so due to comments by three Fed officials (Bullard, Lockhart,Williams) that interest rates may have to be raised at its April meeting.
I would expect any action on interest rates to be accompanied by a press conference, however none is scheduled for April. If one is, it would be a give-away to a rate rise.
There is simply no consistency to what comes out of the Fed – not good !
With or without the Fed, dollar, oil etc., a correction is normal.
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
This supports my December forecast of an ugly January, a rough year as a whole, but with several buying opportunities.
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SUPPORT ‘today”: DJIA:17,347; S&P 500:2,023; Nasdaq Comp.:4,739.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
As of March 11, 2016, a reasonable risk is 17,073 a more extreme risk is 16,970. Near-term upside potential is 17,586
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 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45%. Consider 75% now
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q1, and 2016 earnings questionable.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of economic data
*Briefing.com
**Stock Trader’s Almanac
For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:17,502
S&P 500:2,036
Nasdaq Comp.:4,768.;
Russell 2000: 1,075
Thursday: March 24, 2016 8:59 a.m.
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
EARNINGS (Nothing new – re-read anyhow – important)
In two weeks Q1 earnings will begin to flow and are projected to be down, as are Q2 earnings. It doesn’t get more fundamental than earnings, yet other issues have dominated the attention of the Street so far this year.
April could be the “decider” on whether 2016 is a bear market year, or just a volatile one with big swings up and down as we near the November election.
S&P Capital IQ is projecting S&P 500’s earnings in Q1 to drop 7.0% and Q2 to drop 2.1%.* Earnings are projected to rise only 1.5%, down from a projection of plus 7.4% as recently as January.
Hopefully, a weak dollar will enable companies to post better numbers than currently projected. They will have to in order to justify the current level of stock prices.
TODAY:
The U.S. dollar has been strong for five days in a row, taking a toll on commodities and stocks. Some of its strength is a flight to safety after the Belgium bombings, but more so due to comments by three Fed officials (Bullard, Lockhart,Williams) that interest rates may have to be raised at its April meeting.
I would expect any action on interest rates to be accompanied by a press conference, however none is scheduled for April. If one is, it would be a give-away to a rate rise.
There is simply no consistency to what comes out of the Fed – not good !
With or without the Fed, dollar, oil etc., a correction is normal.
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
This supports my December forecast of an ugly January, a rough year as a whole, but with several buying opportunities.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT ‘today”: DJIA:17,347; S&P 500:2,023; Nasdaq Comp.:4,739.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
As of March 11, 2016, a reasonable risk is 17,073 a more extreme risk is 16,970. Near-term upside potential is 17,586
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45%. Consider 75% now
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q1, and 2016 earnings questionable.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of economic data
*Briefing.com
**Stock Trader’s Almanac
For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

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