Market Has Enetered Area of Resistance

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
S&P 500: 1,999
Nasdaq Comp. : 4,717.:
Russell 2000: 1,081
Monday: March 7, 2016 9:06 a.m.
The market is presently running into selling with major overhead supply starting around DJIA 17,176; S&P 500: 2,021; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,796. That’s where the market started to break down in January.
The market has upside momentum comparable to the momentum it has developed on the downside in January prior to the formation of a double bottom around DJIA 15,500 (S&P 500: 1,810).
The driver is twofold: The price of oil has extended its rebound, as short sellers scramble for cover in face of commentary that $20 oil is no longer likely. Then too, the Fed is not expected to bump rates again at its March 15 FOMC meeting. The employment numbers are looking good, but manufacturing is still in a mini recession.
As noted before, the Jan./Feb. rebound is a mirror image of the Sept./Oct. 2015 rebound from its “flash crash” low.
While too early to project, there is a possibility the market will press up irregularly into late April when the odds increase significantly for it to slide into a correction.
What would trigger a drop before then ?
Downward revisions in Q3 and Q4 earnings, for one. Fed action to increase rates this month (15th), for another. Oil may lose its recent luster as the reality sets in that a freeze is not a production cut. While the Fed is not expected to bump rates next week, comments by Fed Chief Janet Yellen in her 2:30 press conference may indicate more rate increases are on the horizon.
Of the three, earnings have the greatest potential to crunch the market if projected worse than expected, especially Q3 and Q4. If the unexpected happens, and suddenly the Street revises earnings higher, all bets are off. Currently, I am not comfortable with any projections I see – too early
The market has had a 10% run since its double bottom February 11. Traders will be locking in some profits since the market is nearing major resistance. New buying must be selective.
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:16,871; S&P 500:1,984; Nasdaq Comp.:4,681
RESISTANCE : “today”: DJIA:17,113; S&P 500:2,011; Nasdaq Comp.:4,741.
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
As of March 2, 2016, a reasonable risk is 16,716 a more extreme risk is 16,651. Near-term upside potential is 17,134
 STATUS OF MARKET: Bearish – but trying to turn. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, but opportunity for traders at lower levels.
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45%. Consider 75% now
 KEY FACTORS: Fear taking hold. Concern for the number and extent of additional bumps in interest rates by the Fed; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q1, and 2016 earnings as a whole.
The Street is counting on a big jump in Q3 and Q4.
Note: Source of economic data
For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators, go to
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

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