Ignore Administration Hype about Economy

INVESTOR’S first read.com – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 25,886
S&P 500: 2,888
Nasdaq Comp.:7,895
Russell 2000:1,493
Monday  August  19, 2019
  8:48 a.m.

     I have been warning readers, the administration and Fed will release whatever information it can muster up to stabilize the market and that that  may work temporarily. 
     White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow was on both Fox News and “Meet the Press” Sunday where he said, “I don’t see a recession at all,” and “There’s no recession coming …the pessimists are wrong”
     Chief White House trade adviser Peter Naxarro took the same stance on ABC’s “This Week” and  CBS’ “Face the Nation,” saying he was certain we’re going to have a strong economy through and beyond 2020, adding  Chinese tariffs would have no impact on American consumers.
Leaving New Jersey yesterday on Air Farce One, President Trump denied rumors of an economic downturn, saying, “I don’t think we’re having a recession…We’re doing tremendously well… Our consumers are rich.”
     Small wonder then that the market will kick off trading on a strong note today.
We have yet to hear from the Fed, but  give it a few hours after the open.
OK, while  an administration should be supportive, it should  not be manipulative against strong odds that the economy is either in a recession, or on the threshold of one.
By its verbal hype, investors are being sucked into a market that is historically very overvalued. When the truth outs, they will get slaughtered.
      Just the fact the Fed is in a hurry to cut interest rates, indicates it seriously sees a recession looming. Add to that an inconsistent rebound in housing and a crunch in manufacturing and it spells RECESSION, and there has never been a recession without a bear market
A purely technical scenario:  Boeing (BA: 330)  BA could run  a bit higher (333 – 335, but break below 321 would indicate another leg down. Company desperately needs a vote of confidence from somewhere, preferably the airlines which have hundreds of Boeing’s 373 Max aircraft grounded. Just a little good news from a brokerage research could chase shorts and take it up 10 points, or a major order from an airline could take it higher, but the whole reason it is getting is hammered is the Street and airline industry are afraid to buy.
The Trump administration and Fed will release whatever info it can muster up to stabilize this market and it may work temporarily.
Markets are bouncing from last week’s sell off on news of the yield curve inversion.  The Fed could push prices higher with more hype of  lower interest rates.  The market must hold its gain today, or it spells weakness.
Minor Support: DJIA:25,851; S&P 500:2,886;Nasdaq Comp.:7,881
Support is based on a  pullback from early buying.
Minor Resistance: DJIA:26,117; S&P500:2,913;Nasdaq Comp.:7,965
Friday August 16  “Street Ignores Warning Signs – Will Try to Run Stocks Back Up – Use Strength to Sell”
Global recession fears
have driven interest rates into negative territory, i.e., depositors must pay banks to hold their money !
The US Fed is driving interest rates lower to head off  a recession here. Only 8 months ago, it was raising rates – go figure.
Unprecedented policies will be needed to respond to the next economic downturn,” reports BlackRock Investment Institute, adding “Monetary policy is almost exhausted as global interest rates plunge toward zero or below.
BlackRock’s solution is “helicopter money,” giving money directly to the public. Hey guys, I live at 7925………..
I would rather be wrong on this one, but I have been warning of a recession/bear market  since late last year with good reason, and finally, the financial press is picking up on the risk.
But the Street still  doesn’t get it.   That’s the kind of arrogance and naivete that leads to investors getting slaughtered.
This I what happens after a Fed-micromanaged 10-year long bull market.
      The bull will continue, and buyers will continue to buy, at the market and on dips until suddenly the BIG money, the SMART money, is a no-show, or a piece of news so horrific that it can’t be ignored  chases buyers away and triggers a selling panic.
       I have experienced 13 of these market tops, and they all have at least one thing in common – practically no one thinks a bear market can happen – conditions are simply too good.



Thursday  August 15  “Expect Fed and Administration to Talk Market Back Up”
     It took an inversion of the 2 yr/10yr yield curve to wake the Street up to what has been obvious for 6 months – that we are in the early stages of a recession.
Yes, this is what I have been warning readers  of for at least that long.
Another warning is appropriate now, that is that the Fed and administration are  going to step in with whatever BS they can muster to turn the market back up……and of course, suck investors in for yet another  drubbing.
As I have said several times  this week, both the Fed and administration are master market manipulators of the stock market.
     Yesterday I noted, “At some point…. the Street won’t take the bait then whoosh down the market goes to a level that does  discount the negatives. Yesterday’s “whoosh” down was just the first of many when the BIG money, the “smart” money, decides to bail out looking ahead to an opportunity to buy back ion 35% – 45% lower, more for Nasdaq.
CONCLUSION:  Expect hype about tariffs, meetings with China’s Xi Jinping, and lies about the strength of the economy
These comments will trigger sharp rallies. Investors will jump back in… only to get their clock cleaned all over again.
There have been bear markets without recessions, but never a recession without a bear market.
I have experienced 13 bear markets and 7 recessions and have never seen such ineptness and spewing of untruths in any of them.
Wednesday  August 14  “Bulls “Must” Hold the Line….or else”
Why worry about buying,
I wrote yesterday, “The Fed is there with another cut in rates, or verbal hype, and it has been a long time since this administration floated an untruth about optimism on trade talks.”
Within 90 minutes of my post, the administration announced
it would postpone the 10% tariff on $300 billion of Chinese goods scheduled for Sept. 1 until Dec. 15. The DJIA shot up372 points erasing Monday’s 391 point loss.
It is clear to me the announcement was timed to prevent another leg down in the market, something this administration and Fed do not want so close to a presidential election year.
As noted Monday, the Fed and administration manipulate the market all the time.
      I have argued for letting the market find a level that discounts current and potential negatives. Eventually, the market will do that anyhow, but not until a lot of investors get sucked into stocks by the hype.
At some point, I noted, the Street won’t take the bait then whoosh down the market goes to a level that does  discount the negatives.
       Expect the Fed or administration to counter with  a commentary that rebuts the seriousness of  the yield curve inversion.
Tuesday   August 13, 2019  “Street’s Algos Unflappable Until Overridden By Selling”
    Buyers will rule UNTIL someone breaks ranks and sells, triggering a stampede to sell.   This is a “I won’t sell if they don’t sell” mentality. The Street’s algos are unflappable  until overridden by common sense.
     So far buyers are there on pullbacks even though they are paying up for stocks. Why worry, the Fed is there with another cut in rates, or the verbal hype, and it has been a long time since the administration floated an untruth about optimism  on trade talks.
Both the Fed and administration manipulate the market all the time, as well as huge pools of leveraged money.
But, comes a time, all that doesn’t work, buyers are  chased away by fundamental, domestic and international developments, and big investors scramble to lock in profits.
This negative rant must get old after a while, but all I am saying is, there are soooo many signs of trouble that aren’t discounted in valuations, and that situation won’t last forever.
When this aging and overpriced bull market heads down to a level that reasonably values stocks, it will happen suddenly, 12% – 18% in a matter of days and that will more than sting.
Monday  August 12  “There Are No New Eras for Stocks”
      If this market were trading 25% lower in face of hurtful tariffs, struggling global economies on the threshold of recession,  stagnant corporate earnings, excessive individual, corporate and government debt that limits future growth,  international tensions and  a government under fire, I would feel more comfortable about buying, simply because these negative would be largely discounted.
By historical yardsticks, this market is overvalued, possibly by more that 25%.  The Shiller price/earnings ratio is 29.5 versus a mean of 16.6, that’s higher than before the 2007 – 2009 bear market, and as high as the market before the ’29 crash. While the market is not as overvalued as the 44.2  P/E in December 1999 when the dot-com bubble burst causing a 50% plunge in the S&P 500 (78% plunge in Nasdaq), there is enough good reason to have a healthy cash reserve.
A NEW ERA FOR STOCKS ?   That’s what the Street generally thinks at market tops.  With algorithms doing so much of the Street’s thinking, this market  can hang tough….until something unexpected outside of the algo programming metrics and you have a stampede for the exits….and no buyers.
The only thing new about this era is the degree to which the market has been casinoized.  Bull and bear markets happen. We are overdue for the latter. All it takes is for a couple of major institutions to ditch their algos, break ranks and sell – the others will follow. That justifies taking steps to  protect one’s portfolio with a cash reserve of 30% +. Depending on one’s tolerance for risk, that could be greater.
What No One on Wall Street Wants to Hear
>We are in the late innings of an economic expansion, so a recession is a good bet. The current expansion started in June 2009, has lasted 120 months, the longest  in history, twice as long as the average length of 11 cycles since 1945.
> Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months.  The unemployment rate is 3.6% which was hit in May.  Technically, we won’t know when the start of the current recession is official for months after the fact, since that conclusion is  reached by the Nat’l Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and they consider  host of economic indicators.
>Bear markets lead the beginning of recessions by 3 to 12 months.  The current bull market at 123 months is 4 times the average of the last 15 bulls going back to 1957
 >Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House.
George Brooks
Investor’s first read.com
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.









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