Greek Dilemma – a Buying Opportunity Friday ?

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,966
S&P 500: 2,108
Nasdaq  Comp.: 5,122 
Russell 2000: 1,284

Thursday, June 25, 2015   9:12 a.m.

TODAY

    Uncertainty about a deal between Greece and its creditors will roil market off and on this week and possibly early next week. It is not that Greece is an economic power so much as default could upset international financial markets to what extent nobody really knows.

   The announcement of a deal would reduce the uncertainty overhanging the market, but this one will probably go up to the last minute.

    Without an announcement, the rally starting today will fail.

Resistance today starts at DJIA: 18,036; S&P 500: 2,116 ; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,141

Support today is: DJIA:17,835; S&P500: 2,093;  Nasdaq Comp.: 5,087  .

THE FED

      The guessing game continues – Will the Fed bump interest rates up in September, or later ?

      Obviously, their decision will key on the strength of the U.S. economy where housing is taking the lead.  Existing Home Sales for May were solid with a 5.1% jump at an annual rate (9.2% year/year). New Home Sales posted a 2.2% jump, as well. 

     The final estimate for Q1 – GDP was reported this morning in line with projections (-0.2% at an annual rate). Q1 was a flat quarter, distorted by severe weather, the West Coast port strike and skewed seasonal adjustments.  It’s all about  whether the economy can rebound in coming months.

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My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  June 5, a reasonable risk is 17,763; a more extreme risk is 17,556 The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 18,160.  

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KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
Q2 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Recent strength in employment and housing industry shifting concern from a weakening in the U.S. economy to enough strength to prompt an early bump up in interest rates.

-Greece

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

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*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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