Goldman Bullish At New Highs ?? Whoa !

INVESTOR’S first read.com – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 27,778
S&P 500: 3,389
Nasdaq Comp.:11,210
Russell: 1,569
Wednesday   August  19, 2020   
9:13 a.m.
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brooksie01@aol.com
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November 15, 2019 (DJIA – 28,004)   I Called for a bear market to start in January, that the initial plunge would be 12%-18% – “straight down.” It started mid-February, dropped 16.3%, rallied then  plunged another 32.8%.
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January 20, 2020 (DJIA:29,348) My blog,  “INSANITY,” projected a bear market decline of  30% – 45%. The DJIA plunged 38.4% in 21 days.
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With the DJIA at 18,591on March 24, I wrote that , while I see lower prices later in the year, I expect a big rally with the upside potential of DJIA 22,037 (S&P 500 : 2,617) – it went higher.
With the DJIA at 23,942 (S&P 500) on April 15, I
called for  an end to  rally, up 29% but well short of how far the rally extended.  On May 18, I began to warn of  Bubble #2 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

 

The S&P 500 closed at a new high yesterday closing at 3,389 fractionally above the February 18 high of 3,386.  Officially, that qualifies the rally that started on March 23 at 2,237 as a “Bull Market.”
Powered by big-name growth stocks, the Nasdaq Comp. hit new highs in mid-June, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is still 6.4% below the February 12 highs. (see below)
Consumer and wholesale prices are increasing faster than expected, does this put pressure on the Fed to raise rates ?
Not yet, and certainly not before the election. While no meeting is scheduled until September 15-16, you may see some speculation about inflation forcing the Fed to raise rates.
Axios’ Markets’ Dion Rabouin noted yesterday that since its unprecedented intervention in March, the  Fed has been the driver of financial markets – holding up stock and bond prices through its massive bond-buying programs.
(Sound familiar)
Rabouin goes on to point out, Treasury yields spiked 26 basis points between Aug. 4 and Aug. 13, hitting the highest since June 24.
I would be stunned if the Fed even hinted at a rise in rates, after all the three amigos (Fed, Administration and Wall Street) have been doing everything in their power to prop the market through November 3.
David Kostin,, Equity Strategist for Goldman Sachs  just lifted its S&P 500 year-end price target to 3600 from 3000.  

His forecast is based on a number of “assumptions” to include an expected  decline in the “equity risk premium” (difference between return on equities and risk-free assets), a stronger economic expansion next year (assuming a vaccine), and higher than expected S&P 500 earnings.
       With the S&P 500 selling at 2,870 in mid-May, Kostin was telling clients the downside risk is greater than the upside potential.  As I recall, he and a host of other Wall Streeters were bullish in January on 2020 even as COVID was raising its ugly head.  Since November 2019, I was forecasting a bull market top for January, though it didn’t happen  until February.
“Assumptions” are tricky, especially if stretched as would be a strong economy next year based on a vaccine and higher S&P 500 earnings when the dominoes are still tumbling in face of a whole lot of damage done to the economy and people’s lives by COVID and measures to cope with it.
Common sense, not assumptions, suggests don’t try to quantify the unquantifiable.
BOTTOM LINE:
     As in January, I disagree with Goldman’s Kostin’s overly optimistic assessment.  I don’t think anyone has good reason to make a forecast like his with so many variables hovering. The risk here is he would be sucking investors in at a market that is hitting all-time highs when the market is clearly overvalued to begin with and getting more so with every uptick.
I think we are in the “eye” of the economic storm and will start blasting out the other side when the current bounce from the severely depressed numbers in Q1 and Q2 are behind us  If I am right, we will get flash crash #2 (bear market ) in coming months.
Expect a stimulus plan announcement in coming days, also progress on trade talks
Can the three amigos hold it off until November 4 ?
Don’t know.  I do expect a host of hype and lies between now and then., announcements of COVID cures, treatments and vaccines, outlandish misinformation  about the economy.
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Appreciation needed to hit new highs
DJIA:  6.4 %
S&P 500: Hit new high yesterday, closed 0.22% higher
Nasdaq Comp.: is 13.9% above February high
Russell 2000:  9.3%%
New York  Composite Index of 1,900 stocks: 9.9%
Dow Jones Transportation Index:  4.5%%
ValueLine Composite of 1,675 stocks, an “unweighted” index giving equal weight to each stock (-17.5%)
The Nasdaq is distorted by a handful of large market cap Tech stocks. While that is true to some extent for the S&P 500, which is the institutional benchmark index.  That said, it’s hitting an all-time high may attract enough volume to enable these behemoths to unload big positions.
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RECENT POSTS:
Tuesday  August 18, 2020 (DJIA:27,844) “How Would The Street Respond to Democratic SWEEP ?
I found the first night of the Democrat convention inspiring. It was upbeat and positive. And yes, the Democrats showed a lot of  Red, White and Blue and rightly so, because what the Republicans have done to the rule of law, our Constitution, our credibility here and abroad, our global security, economy and fiscal health  is un-American, a disgrace to all who have sacrificed for the preservation of our cherished democratic “republic.”

So there, I said what must be said, not because it will increase my readership but because we are at a crossroads as a country, as a civilization, and those who come after us (I’m 83) deserve better than what we have been subjected to over the last 4 years – a malignantly narcissistic president and Congress that borders on being constitutional anarchists.

Enough !   Time for honest, competent Americans at all levels  in our government to clean up this mess and forge a future for all of us.

HOW WILL WALL STREET SEE A DEMOCRATIC SWEEP ?

My optimism doesn’t count, the BIG money has  the clout.  “They” ran the market up before Trump was elected president, and kept running it up after.  It now stands at levels of overvaluation not seen  except for the dot-com bubble in 2000.

FLASH CRASH ?
     I think so, down 30% + through election day. The perception on the Street will be higher taxes, the re-instatement of regulations to protect Americans from abusive practices, the tightening of the rule of law to define legal boundaries,  a new head of the Federal Reserve Board, and the sometimes painful process of attacking problems that have gotten a low priority under the present administration – environment, fiscal responsibility, inequality, education and healthcare.

      That is what will make us strong, secure the future, fortify our economy and justify LOFTY PRICE/EARNINGS RATIOS.
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Monday  August 17, 2020 “No “Last Call” on This One, The Party Will Just End”
Bubble #2 continues to expand gradually but relentlessly.  Only computers could be this stupid. The signs of excess are obvious by  any standard of measurement.  Clearly, the price/earnings ratio  and Buffet ratio of the market value to GDP scream excess.
Until  computers in a  cruise control buy mode are  re-programmed, the bubble will expand.
The algos will be changed when  money managers will not be able to justify buying under these conditions: historic overvaluation, open-ended, unquantifiable recession, and an aging economy that was teetering on recession even before COVID hit.
     At extremes, it’s all about value, what you get for what you pay. It is at stock market bottoms and at stock market tops, though the extent of the extreme varies.
BOTTOM LINE:
Covid-19 burst Bubble #1
, so what will burst Bubble #2 ?
My guess would be the realization that the recession will extend a lot longer than the Street is betting on, that dominoes will tumble one after another as the damage COVID-19 and the necessary measures needed to cope with it come home to roost.
Right now, we are in the eye of the storm, when we are seeing token economic rebounds off extremely depressed levels. Once past that, the numbers will not justify buying at historically grossly overvalued levels.
It will become obvious to most institutions at the same time, since most key on the same indicators. The result: Flash crash #2.
Talk of cures and vaccines for COVID will surface,  as will forecasts of a rebound from the recession.
When the Street is finished with the FAANG stocks, they’ll turn to value to inflate the bubble further, but to no avail.
There won’t be a “last call” for this one, the market will  just turn down in search of a level that discounts known and perceived negatives and uncertainties.
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Friday August 14, 2020  “New Normal: Flash Crash”

The market is still in the eye of a very dangerous storm when economic reports are improved but mostly because they are compared with depressed numbers.
Yesterday’s market was more of a “failure  to follow through” than a rally failure, which I have been alerting you to as a sign a correction was due.
We are at a crossroad, where we could edge higher or slide into a correction that could extend into late October.
Reason, and history, suggests lower prices, but this market defies reason and ignores history.
The market is at all-time highs, stock valuations are through the roof, the economy sucks with dominos tumbling as I write. Who will run the country over the next four years is uncertain.
The only thing I am sure of is “hype” by the Fed, Administration and Street, which is designed to prop the market up beyond November 3.
That alone has driven stock prices up 44% from December 2018, when the Fed shifted gears and launched its campaign to reverse a 20% plunge in the market and head off a recession resulting in Bubble #1.
The race for the presidency is now real, we know who the contenders are, which means the ugliness begins, as character assassinations, misinformation and outright lies fly with abandon.
Risk for the stock market rises with each expansion of  Bubble #2  (March to present)  Generally, this market has stood up to adversity and uncertainty, aside from the 21-day, 35% plunge in stock prices in February/March.
BOTTOM LINE:
I expect the market to come out of the eye of the economic storm in September/October unless of course the economy gains traction.
      BASED ON MY MANY YEARS IN THIS BUSINESS, I THINK THIS IS A PHONY MARKET, PHONY ECONOMY AND PHONY ADMINISTRATION AND WE WILL PAY A PRICE FOR THAT AT SOME POINT.
        Investors should take precautions, because the new normal in the stock market is the flash crash, a precipitous plunge in prices triggered by unexpected news, or simply on a given day buyers don’t show up.
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Thursday August 13, 2020  “Panic Mode Sets In For Administration and Fed”
Tech Stocks, aka FAANGs
After selling hit the BIG-name tech stocks Tuesday, I headlined “FAANG stocks Must Hold Gains Today,”  otherwise continue selling off.
An indication of whether the selling would continue, I wrote, would be a close at the low for the day, a rally failure.
Generally, they held  nice gains, but all markets were up following the announcement of Joe Biden’s running mate, Kamala Harris, not perceived as  big  a threat if elected to Wall Street interests, as more liberal vice presidential candidates would have been.
So, we really don’t have a good read yet.
Why is this important ?  Because these are market leaders. As a group, these five stocks are up close to 35% ao far this year, when the other 495 S&P 500 stocks are only up 5%.
Tesla (TSLA”1,554) soared 13% on news of a 5-fo1 stock split effective Aug. 31.  Several days ago,  Apple (AAPL: 452) announced a 4-for-1 split also effective Aug. 31.  Since AAPL is a DJIA stock it will not have the impact on the DJIA at 113 as it did at 452, since  the DJIA is a price-weighted average. Since the Mid-March sell off, AAPL contributed  1,655 points to the DJIA’s 9,840 point gain (17%).
Leading Tech Stocks
Sold Here (Aug. 6)         Close (Aug.11)
FB (265)                                                          259
AMZN (3,225                                             3,162
AAPL (455)                                                     452
NFLX (509)                                                      475
GOOG (1,500)                                             1,556
TSLA (1,489)                                                1,554* (5-for-1 split announced)
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Risk levels for these stocks in a major sell off:  FB: (218), AMZN: (2,495), AAPL: (371), NFLX: (417), GOOG: (1,340), TSLA: (1,117).
But, we aren’t there yet. There are support levels along the way.  Rallies will have to fail to follow through before we conclude   BIG money is unloading these leaders. As noted, yesterday did not give us a good read, though it stemmed the negative tide.
Fed Chief Powell:
      Friday, I was happy to note I  was vindicated for my 18-month rant about the Fed manipulating the market, thanks to an article by Axios Market’s Dion Rabouin who  interviewed of a number of credible sources who claimed the Fed has “taken control of the market,”  and controls and sets prices in financial markets, resulting in a free market enterprise that no longer exists.
Throughout 2018, I blamed the Fed for creating Bubble #1 which led to a very overvalued market setting up a 34.9%  plunge in the S&P 500 when COVID-19 burst the bubble,   We are now in Bubble #2 where  the S&P 500 is even more overvalued than it was in Bubble #1.
According to an August 12 article in Alternet.com, Powell is the first chair of the Fed in two generations who is not an economist; instead he is a lawyer, multimillionaire private equity banker and former partner with Carlyle Group.
BOTTOM LINE:
Heading into the November 3 election, we can expect the Fed, Administration and Street to stop at nothing to re-elect Donald Trump. A strong stock market is important to Trump staying in office.
But propping the market up may not work.  We will soon pass through the “eye” of the economic storm when progress on an economic recovery will be tougher to achieve  when current data no longer is compared with severely depressed data and  dominos tumble as economic problems expand.
I expect a major correction to develop between  now and the election.
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Wednesday  August 12, 2020 “FAANG Stocks Must Hold Today”
      Selling hit  the BIG-name Tech stocks  yesterday , but we need to look for “rally failures, before concluding these leaders are heading for a major correction.
Today will be a big test for these  leaders.  They will  spurt up at the open, however the key will be if they can hold their gains at the close.

Here’s what happens to a group that has run up relentlessly, earning the distinction  of “Buy/Don’t ever sell.”
All’s well until buyers are a no-show. Normal, every day selling starts a small trend down.  Sensing buyers  have backed off, investors begin to lock in profits, starting a chain reaction as others  do the same.
Along the way, investors jump in at lower prices running the stocks up, BUT the buying dries up and a selling sets inRESULT:  a rally failure, with the stocks closing at the lows for the day, confirmation that a correction has set in.
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Personal note:  I’m bullish on America for the first time in four years – tough road ahead – good vs evil – but finally there is hope.
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Yesterday got off to a good start with a surge in prices as a result of President Trump’s suggestion of a  reduction in the capital gains tax.  – This is just the beginning – it’s all about November 3….more to come….don’t get sucker punched…this is a dangerous, overvalued market. There will be lies and hype ad nauseum, much of it mean and untrue.
BOTTOM LINE:
We saw a rally failure yesterday when the market soared at the open after President Trump suggested a reduction in the capital gains tax.
At 2:00 p.m. it began to slip, closing the day at a loss.
The Nasdaq Comp. fared much worse, selling off at the open, rallying to mid-day then selling off in the afternoon posting a 1.70% loss for the day.
The big-name tech stocks, including Apple  (AAPL), broke positive patterns and sold off suggesting they may be on the verge of a correction.
What to do: Investors should decide what their tolerance for major risk is and raise enough cash to accommodate it.
      The new normal is the “flash crash,” a sudden precipitous plunge in stocks that comes out of nowhere catching investors by surprise. Initial risk is a 12% -18% plunge in days.
       Cash is an investment at times.  For one, it is a buffer against major losses in one’s portfolio.  For another, it is a reserve that can be tapped to buy-in at lower levels.  I believe there will be opportunities to do just that in coming months.
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Tuesday  August 11, 2020  “The Less You Know, The More You Can Market” Market   Finally, I was vindicated for my 18 month rant about the Fed manipulating the market – Thank you Dion Rabouin – Axios Markets.com . If it comes from anyone, this is who I would prefer.
Quoting a number a credible sources, the message was clear about the Fed:  it
“has taken control of the market” ….   will “manipulate cost of credit”…  is “controlling and setting prices in financial markets”…its support of large companies have helped spawn a “buy-anything market”…. “A free-market enterprise no longer exists,” Scott Minerd, CIO of Guggenheim Partners says, adding “The definition  of market prices is whatever   the Fed says it will be.”
Since January 2019, I have accused the Fed of nurturing a surge in stock market prices, creating Bubble #1, which drove stock prices to overvaluation levels seen once in more than 75 years, the dot-com bubble of 2000 which burst, resulting in a 55% plunge in the S&P500 and an 85% plunge in Nasdaq comp.
.     The Fed’s Bubble #1 was burst by COVID-19, leading to  21-day, 35.4% plunge in the S&P 500  and 32.6% plunge in the Nasdaq Comp..
After both Fed and Congressional stimulus, we are now in Bubble #2 one that has taken stocks to an even higher level of overvaluation.  If this were anything but an election year, all this hype would NOT be taking place.
BOTTOM LINE
      As noted in last Thursday’s “SELL,” I went on to note the possibility that the S&P500 to punch to new all-time highs above February’s 3,383.  It’s a bubble and inflating at warp speed..   This is  known as a “dumb money” market, where the less you know, the more you can make.
Generally bull market tops roll over, giving a number of technical signals of an impending crunch, but not necessarily with the flash crash, which can come out of nowhere, triggered by news or simply a no-show by institutions on a given day.
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Leading Tech Stocks  –  Time to Lock In Profits
I began to track the following Tech stocks after projecting the lows they would hit in a decline that started July 21. They rebounded from these projections to close on August 6 at the following prices. At some point, institutions will want to begin locking in profits, since they all can’t sell at the same time…or will they ?
Last Thursday’s “Sell” included these stocks “Time To Lock-in Profits at
FB (265), AMZN (3,225), AAPL (455), NFLX (509),GOOG (1,500), TSLA (1,489).
They look tired !  Money is switching to blue chip DJIA stocks which still  6.4%
below the February’s all-time highs.  Netflix (NFLX: 483) and Tesla (TSLA: 1,418)
need a shot of “Red Bull, ” or they are going lower.
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Projected Lows on Friday, July 24     –  August  10 Close)

Facebook (FB): Projected low: 223  – Actual Low: 226    Close: 263
Amazon (AMZN): Projected low:2,887 – Actual Low:2,888   Close :3,148
Apple (AAPL): Projected low: 363 – Actual Low: 356     Close: 450
Netflix (NFLX): Projected low: 466  – Actual Low: 467    Close: 483
Google (GOOG): Projected low: 1,486 -Actual Low: 1,488   Close: 1,496
Tesla (TSLA): Projected low 1,407  – Actual Low 1,366   Close: 1,418
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Eastman Kodak’s (KODK: 10.73)
Apparently, I was right about Eastman Kodak, originally noting “This one STINKS” and  warning, “something seems very wrong here.”
I am suspended coverage of Eastman Kodak (KODK) last week  pending an SEC
investigation and a number of  investigations by law firms pursuant to legal action.
RECAP
      I published the following  starting Thursday July 30.
KODAK
soared to $60 from $1.50 in two days as a result of the Trump administration’s $765 million loan to produce active pharmaceutical ingredients (API), most of which are currently produced abroad by China and India.
Suspicious to me was the jump to $10 from $1.50 Tuesday, July 24.
> After hitting $60 on Wednesday it closed at $33.20
> I started coverage on Thursday morning noting, “This One STINKS” and I said  it  looked like a $21 stock.
> Friday it closed at $21.85
> Monday morning,  August 3,  I warned of a spike down to $12.80, and  it closed at $14.95.
> Tuesday, I stuck to the $12.80 projection where I thought short sellers would cover and run it up to $19-$20. I believe they began to cover at the open yesterday with a high volume jump to $17.88 before slipping to my projected low $12.86, then closed at $14.40. Shorts may buy today bumping the stock up to $15.88.   (Which it did on Aug. 5)
Something seems very wrong here. I am covering it because there appears a need to better understand its market action. Unless there are currently  unknown fundamentals to justify strength, this stock could be headed much lower, perhaps below $7.
Follow up: With its “loan” (???) now on hold, Kodak  dropped below  9 yesterday (as forecast)    and did indeed “STINK”  …as forecast
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Monday August 10, 2020  “Eye of the Storm”
In my Thursday “SELL”, I noted a “brief run to new highs by the S&P500 (3,393) is possible, and I think that will happen in coming days. It would only take a 1.07% move or 43 points to do it.
Powered by big-tech, large market cap stocks, the Nasdaq comp.  broke the February highs in June.
Other market indexes still Have a way to go.  The DJIA still has a 7.8% move up to hit new highs, the New York Index 11.1% to go, Russell 2000 index 9.3%, Dow transports 7.4% and the ValueLine composite (unweighted) 18.3% to get to new highs.
But the S&P 500 is the key index that institutions track, and breaking to new all-time highs would  attract media attention and trigger buying, which could give institutions a chance to unload large positions.
BOTTOM LINE:
I think we are in the eye of the storm where hopes of a recovery are stroked by improving reports on the economy, optimistic projections from the Street and rising stock prices.
Economic reports should look better, since current data is compared with severely depressed data.   COVID-19 may be peaking in some states, rising in others, but the damage has been done and will continue to be done as dominos endlessly tumble into the future causing the Street to lower estimates for earnings and the economy, which means an “L” recovery, not a “V”.
     I expect a major correction to develop at any time. I have expected it to start at lower levels and well before this, but am wrong – hasn’t happened.
After 11 years of a good market, the robotic buy mode by institutions is hard to shut off, kind of a self-fulfilling prophesy.
The 35% plunge in February/March was over so quickly it served as a mere pinprick for investors.
     The stock market is more overvalued now than it was before COVID ravaged the economy, and it was historically more overvalued then than at any time in history except for the dot-com bubble in 2000.
At some point, reality will set in, buyers will be a no-show, the market will drop 12% -18%, then come the selling and you have the second flash crash in one year.
If this one happens, it will be for fundamental reasons, which means the Street has accepted reality, that it realizes the impact of COVID has a greater reach than originally naively thought and overvalued become more reasonable valued, but at much lower levels.
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Friday August 7, 2020 “2020’s Double Bubble Burst”

Thursday’s “SELL – Phony Market, Phony Economy, Phony Administration” was based on the big picture – our quality of life, dismal future expectations and the  tumbling domino effect of a severely damaged economy.
As noted herein so many times, the stock market is so much more overvalued now based on time-tested yardsticks than it was in February before COVID-19 ravaged the economy as well as corporate earnings, save a few tech stocks.
Historically, it is more overvalued than at any time in the past.  That should give money managers pause to think about new commitments, since they have a fiduciary responsibility to protect portfolio values in addition to grow them, which under current circumstances is a crap shoot.
Yesterday, I said a brief run to new highs by the S&P 500 is possible before the market turns down. That high is 3,383, which means it only has to run 1.0% higher, or 34 points.  The tech-heavy Nasdaq Comp. rose 12.9% beyond the February  highs in June.
As you can see the remaining market indexes have a long way to go to hit new highs.
Appreciation needed to hit new highs
DJIA:  8.0%
Russell 2000: 11.1%
New York  Composite Index of 1,900 stocks: 11.4%
Dow Jones Transportation Index: 9.9%%
ValueLine Composite of 1,675 stocks, an “unweighted” index giving equal weight to each stock (-19.5%)
Bottom Line:
The Nasdaq is distorted by a handful of large market cap Tech stocks. While that is true to some extent for the S&P 500, this is the institutional benchmark index.  That said, it’s hitting an all-time high may attract enough volume to enable these behemoths to unload big positions.
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Leading Tech Stocks  –  Time to Lock In Profits
I began to track the following Tech stocks after projecting the lows they would hit in a decline that started July 21. They rebounded from these projections to close on August 6 at the following prices. At some point, institutions will want to begin locking in profits, since they all can’t sell at the same time…or will they ?
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Projected Lows on Friday, July 24     –  August 6 Close)

Facebook (FB): Projected low: 223  – Actual Low: 226    Close: 265
Amazon (AMZN): Projected low:2,887 – Actual Low:2,888   Close : 3,225
Apple (AAPL): Projected low: 363 – Actual Low: 356     Close: 455
Netflix (NFLX): Projected low: 466  – Actual Low: 467    Close: 509
Google (GOOG): Projected low: 1,486 -Actual Low: 1,488   Close: 1,500
Tesla (TSLA): Projected low 1,407  – Actual Low 1,366   Close: 1,489
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Eastman Kodak’s (KODK: 14.90)
Apparently, I was right about Eastman Kodak, originally noting “This one STINKS” and  warning, “something seems very wrong here.”
I am suspending coverage of Eastman Kodak (KODK)  pending an SEC investigation and a number of  investigations by law firms.
I published the following  starting Thursday July 30.
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KODAK
soared to $60 from $1.50 in two days as a result of the Trump administration’s $765 million loan to produce active pharmaceutical ingredients (API), most of which are currently produced abroad by China and India.
Suspicious to me was the jump to $10 from $1.50 Tuesday, July 24.
> After hitting $60 on Wednesday it closed at $33.20
> I started coverage on Thursday morning noting, “This One STINKS” and I said  it  looked like a $21 stock.
> Friday it closed at $21.85
> Monday morning,  August 3,  I warned of a spike down to $12.80, and  it closed at $14.95.
> Tuesday, I stuck to the $12.80 projection where I thought short sellers would cover and run it up to $19-$20. I believe they began to cover at the open yesterday with a high volume jump to $17.88 before slipping to my projected low $12.86, then closed at $14.40. Shorts may buy today bumping the stock up to $15.88.   (Which it did on Aug. 5)
Something seems very wrong here. I am covering it because there appears a need to better understand its market action. Unless there are currently  unknown fundamentals to justify strength, this stock could be headed much lower, perhaps below $7.
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Bottom Line:
In November, I called for a top for the 11-year old bull market to take place in January, but was a month early. It came in February. Without COVID, it may have come later. Throughout 2019, I warned of an inflating bubble, nurtured by the Fed which was in panic mode after the S&P 500 plunged 20% in Q4 2018 and the economy edged into a recession.
I may be early again, but more upside is really not justified, except by the fact investors see no alternative for a e return except stocks.  That’s fine, but poor timing can produce huge losses.
We are in the eye of the recession storm where current economic reports look like they are improving, because they are going up against severely depressed data.
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George Brooks
Investor’s first read.com
brooksie01@aol.com
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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