Easy Does It !

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 18,005
S&P 500: 2,119
Nasdaq Comp.:4,974
Russell 2000:1,188
Thursday, June 9, 2016 9:03 a.m.
The “last rally before a plunge” that started May 19, should persist until the BIG money walks away creating a vacuum.
We will know it when they do – like pulling a plug in a full bathtub.
Of course, it is possible this rally will push to all-time highs (DJIA: 18,351, S&P 500:2,134, Nasdaq Comp.: 5,231), which would attract a lot of press and frantic buying.
It would only take a 1.92% move by the DJIA and 0.71% move by the S&P 500 to hit new all-time highs. The Nasdaq needs a 5.17% move to get there
New all-time highs would be accompanied by a lot of press hoopla and a lot of panicky buying. However, the BIG money does not buy that kind of market. It sells it, and it may jump the gun and bail sooner.
The Street has little choice today except to buy. Fixed income offers no attractive alternative with the ten-year treasury yielding 1.72%.
Stocks are the only game in town, as long as they keep rising.
Three things suggest that trek will be difficult. One, they are historically over-priced, with the S&P 500’s P/E a lofty 24.4 vs. a mean of 14.6. Earnings are expected to pick up in Q4, but will have to follow with better numbers in 2017.
Two, signs of weakness are showing up in the economy with auto sales, retail sales, and new hires sliding. While these numbers may be a mere blip in a more positive trend, they are worth concern, especially since the stock market tops out three-to-six months ahead of the beginning of a recession
Three, campaigning for the November elections will get ugly, creating a lot of uncertainty.
Risks are increasing as the market presses higher – take care
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:17,866; S&P 500:2,104; Nasdaq Comp.:4,939.
RESISTANCE “today”: DJIA:18,113; S&P 500:2,132; Nasdaq Comp.:5,001
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of May 26, 2016, a reasonable risk is 17,656 a more extreme risk is 17,526. Near-term upside potential is 17,963.
(I will repeat this regularly to keep readers aware of the potential for an April correction)
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
Corrections started in spring in each of the last six years, the biggest being 19.8% in 2011, and smallest 2.3% in 2,014.
They started: 2010 (Apr. 26), 2011(May 2), 2012 (May 1), 2013 (May 22), 2014 ( May 13), 2 015 (May 15). The 2014 correction was insignificant, the 2015 more of a trading peak that trended sideways-to-down before the August flash crash.
So far, Q1 earnings are mixed-to-slightly better than projected. The key will be guidance and projections for Q3 and Q4.
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q2, and 2016 earnings questionable. Fed has market under its spell.
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Stock Trader’s Almanac
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

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