Cut Meals on Wheels ? Really ?

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 20,934

S&P 500: 2,381

Nasdaq  Comp.:5,900

Russell 2000:1,386

Friday,  March 17, 2017    9:06 a.m.

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       Trump would cut funding for Meals on Wheels, and no doubt there are a lot in Congress who would  go along with it. Has this administration no shame ?  I worked Meals on Wheels, I know how grateful these recipients were to see me arrive.

       And spend it on what ?   A freaking Wall  when border crossings are decreasing sharply ?  Or, to make the world’s most formidable military even more formidable ?

       All this will eventually have an adverse impact on our economy and ultimately the stock market. Right now the Street cares only about what it assumes will be a massive stimulus.

       If that is late in coming, or is only partially delivered, the market goes south.     

       For now, the bulls remain in charge.  Aside from a consolidation or moderate correction on occasion, the trend is positive, if only selective, i.e., the market trends sideways but certain groups do well.  

       The Trump budget will take center stage now, with proposed massive cute in just about everything except defense. Trump wants to lop off 30% from the EPA, agriculture and State budgets, 23% health and human services, 21% from labor. The winner is Defense, veterans Affairs and Transportation, and Homeland Defense with gains ranging between 7% and 13%.

BUDGET MAYHEM

        Does this clueless “mistake” for a president realize how big an impact this will have on our economy ?  Nine out of the last ten recessions have been with a Republican  in the White House, Trump will make it 10 out of 11.

        Already hearing footsteps, the Republican Congress, will never go along with cuts that huge and unbalanced. Middle America had trouble sleeping at night before voting for Trump, that will get even worse in coming years.

        Looking at the hit list of services, it looks like quality of life and preparation for a better future are now in a death spiral. This is a delight for right wingers who never cared about these things anyhow, and have yet to come up with a creative idea.    

        It only takes one bad apple(s)…………………………                                                                                                                                                                                                    

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SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,856;S&P 500:2,374;Nasdaq Comp.:5,881

RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:20.984;S&P 500:2,387;Nasdaq Comp.:5.910

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CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  March 3, 2014)

      Factset now sees Q4 earnings for the S&P 500 up close to 4.9% vs. a Dec. 31 projection of plus 3.1%.

     Earnings growth for all of 2016 are now projected to be plus 0.4%.

     Q1 earnings are projected to increase 8.9%. 

     2017 as a whole are projected at a plus 9.8% down from earlier estimates of 11.6%.  Currently, the P/E based on earnings 12 months out is 17.7 x, which compares with a 10-year average P/E of 13.9. 

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MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies:  (UPDATED 2/13/17)

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
     As of  March 2, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 21,040 a more extreme risk is 20,938 Near-term upside potential is 21,367 .

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POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET

MEDIA CONTROL

      I just read the list of 80 programs that would lose federal funding under Trump’s proposed budget.   I can hear the snickers of right wingers who delight in seeing so many progressive programs that may get axed all to fund the already  mightiest military in the world.

      This stands to destabilize a country that is already divided by relentless lies from the very highest levels of our government.

      This is not making America great, it is ensuring beyond a doubt its demise going forward.  How can anyone who supports such a rape and pillage call themselves an Americans ?  Will anything be left worth defending.

       This is the enemy within, intent on imposing a political ideology on the United States, where exhaustive efforts have been made over the years to improve life and opportunity for as many Americans as possible.

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    Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is traveling to Asia this week accompanied by only one reporter, Erin McPike, of the right wing Internet media, “Independent Journal Review (IJR).”

    To confirm what I have been saying (see below “war footing”), Secy of State, Rex Tillerson, warned North Korea yesterday that U.S. military action was an option if it continued to develop a weapons program. While he softened the warning with a reference to pursuing diplomatic efforts, the message was clear, and IMHO he was setting the stage for Americans to expect just that, a pre-emptive strike. It would divert American attention away from all the other Trump administration problems.

    So far, the Trump administration is aligned itself with three media organizations, all leaning far to the right – IJR, Fox, and Breightfart News. Expect this trend to continue. With all the lies and misinformation coming out of the Trump administration, I can understand why it would want to cherry pick  who is first to release the news.

SLASH EPA FUNDS – DENY CLIMATE CHANGE

      Reuters reports Trump intends to slash 25% of the EPA’s budget related to climate-change designed to prevent air and water pollution, like lead contamination.

      WHY ? Is this kiss-ass for support from the polluters ?  Clearly, it is not what is best for future generations.

      What if the Republican deniers are WRONG ?  What if climate change (too hot/too cold) impairs the ability of  the world’s major sources of food to produce enough food at an affordable price ?

       Numerous surveys have been conducted over the years, including universities, NASA, and independent scientists. Support for addressing climate change ranged between 90% and 97%.

       Last September, a coalition of 25 military and national security experts, including those from both the Reagan and Bush administrations warned that climate change poses a “significant risk to US national and international security.”

TRUMPCARE  – Care cuts for people, tax cuts for top 2%

        We now have Trumpcare, a highly controversial healthcare deform bill, that replaces Obamacare and is certain to stir a lot of ugly Congressional and national debate and slow down progress on the other programs Congress wants to ram through.

      More importantly, it skewers Americans desperately in need of affordable healthcare – so characteristically  Republican !

  While still in development, Trumpcare could cause as many as 14 million Americans to lose their healthcare coverage next year according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO), more in future years.  Reportedly, it hurts seniors by charging them five times the amount charged younger people, slashes Medicaid benefits for nursing home care, hurts women by eliminating funding for Planned Parenthood, including family planning services, and may force the closing of hospitals and rural health clinics  in rural areas.

       Trump urges Americans to be patient, that it could take several years for prices to drop.   How convenient, that gets him and his party past the mid-term elections.  “It’s going to be a thing of beauty,” he says. 

       Really ?  How can I believe anything this man says ?  How can anyone who is paying attention, who is capable of objective thinking, believe anything he or his apologists say ?  How can our allies, or adversaries believe anything he says ?

        Where is this taking us ?  Is this the beginning of a big plunge in a GREAT nation that is being dismembered by an element subversive to the spirit of our Constitution, Bill of Rights, and culture of decency and compassion ?

        Who are these people ?  Have they ever struggled to make ends meet. Worse yet, have they ever been crushed by unexpected medical expenses, or experienced the same for relatives ?

        Many of the people who are going to get hurt, voted for Trump and Republicans. If one voted against their interest, they really can only blame themselves and suffer the consequences. Hopefully, the next time they THINK before they cast their vote.

 SOCIAL SECURITY and MEDICARE

       During the campaign, Trump promised he wouldn’t touch Social Security and Medicare.  Just another Trump LIE ?

       .OMB director Mick Mulvaney told conservative radio host, Hugh Hewitt Wednesday, he is trying to get Trump to look at entitlement reform.

        He believes he can get around Trump’s promise by crafting  it as saving Social Security.  Beg pardon, but Social Security  is one of the most efficient systems of our social programs. The real problem is Congress spends its excess receipts over outflow on other programs.

 EXPECT TRUMP TO PUT  THE NATION ON A WAR FOOTING !

      Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.

ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.                                                                

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Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators: mam.econoday.com.

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George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

Brooks007read@aol.com

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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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