Crisis Breeds Uncertainty

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 17,792
S&P 500: 2,086
Nasdaq Comp:5,102
Russell 2000: 1,180
Tuesday: Nov. 24, 2015 10:59 a.m.
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Lost my power and Internet connection.
All bets are off with the downed Russian aircraft which reportedly violated Turkish airspace.
This is an unfolding story, with no quick solution. The uncertainty here can have an impact on the market short-to-intermediate-term.
The market will run both ways as it seeks a level that attempts to discount the uncertainty of this event and related events (Europe, ISIS, Russia, NATO, the Fed).
The Market has not plunged enough to qualify it as one of those “buy the crisis” opportunities. I don’t see serious uncertainty or fear – YET. Russia has already had a plane shot down, but that was reportedly by ISIS. This is different.
FYI: Seasonality – Thanksgiving
I just got my 2016 copy of the Stock Trader’s Almanac in time for some Thanksgiving probability. Based on 62 years of data, the Almanac suggests that traders be long this week but exit Friday, since the Monday after Thanksgiving tends to be a downer. Obviously there have been exceptions over the years and this logic is not suitable for all portfolios. I mention it here for those who plan to sell but stand to benefit from selling Friday rather than Monday.
As I said above, all bets are off.
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SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:17,607; S&P 500:2,061; Nasdaq Comp.:5,018
RESISTANCE “today”: DJIA:17,751; S&P 500:2,081;Nasdaq Comp.:5,076
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NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.
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MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
As of November 19, 2015, a reasonable risk is 17,580 a more extreme risk is 17,436. Near-term upside potential is 17,967
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 STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but “at risk” of a correction, especially Fed-based
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk increases with higher market, but light on the Street is GREEN in spite of negatives.
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45% depends on tolerance for risk.
 KEY FACTORS: Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; Stimulus Europe/China a catalyst !!
 CONCLUSION: Suddenly, odds of a December bump up in interest rates has increased dramatically. Over the years, the market has sold off when it appeared that an increase was imminent. It did not do so after the announcement Friday, but did on Monday as the Street began projecting the timing of subsequent rate increases in 2016 – 2017.
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Note: Source of economic data
For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.
*Stock Trader’s Almanac
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George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

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