Buying Breakout to New Highs – RISKY

INVESTOR’S first read.com – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:26,958
S&P 500: 3,022
Nasdaq: 8,243
Russell: 1,558
Monday,  October  28, 2019
 8:59 a.m. 
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gbifr79@gmail.com
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TODAY:
Big week  for economic reports – Q3 GDP comes at 8:30 Wednesday, the Employment Situation on Friday at 8:30.
Both have a bearing on whether the economy is near or in a recession.
The Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets Tuesday and Wednesday with an announcement of the third rate cut in less than a year. expected on Wednesday, though no press conference is scheduled.
No FOMC meeting is scheduled for November, so the next meeting is not until December 10.
Three things are driving stock prices: a cut in the fed funds interest rate; better than expected Q3 earnings; progress in the U.S./China trade  talks.
Conclusion: This market is pricey at these levels, in fact, historically very overpriced, but the Street thinks it can run the table anyway, so expect new highs today and all the press hoopla that goes with it.
Negatives: 1) the Fed does not cut rates this time. 2) trade talks disappoint. 3) GDP signals a recession, as well as other economic indicators announced this week, primarily  Consumer Confidence (Tues. 10 a.m.) Employment Situation (Fri. 9:30).
This is a very dangerous market to chase. It is next to impossible to resist doing so, but all things considered, the downside risk far exceeds the upside potential.  Many on the Street have no idea how ugly a bear market can get, therefore very few are bearish enough to be selling.
That in itself is bearish, but until several big institutions cut and run, the market will hold the line with short-lived corrections along the way.

TECHNICAL
So far corporate earnings don’t look as bad as forecast but let’s wait to see more reports. Often, the bad ones are held off until later.
Expect another attempt to rally.  It would need big news  on trade to attack new all-time highs, but odds are improving that will happen, though be temporary..
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Minor Support: DJIA:25,941; S&P 500:3,021; Nasdaq Comp.:8,261
Minor Resistance: DJIA:27,041; S&P 500:3,03n7; Nasdaq Comp.:8,276
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Friday Oct. 25  “Big Move Looms as Street Decides on Earnings”

The market needs some volatility and I think we are about to get it.
Q3 earnings are hitting the Street. Some are better than expected, some disappointing, and the Street is about to decide what to do – Buy…or Sell !
      The technical picture (price action) is slightly upbeat, which I think can be credited to hopes for progress on trade and a Fed rate cut plus QE.    It’s really hard to tell now how the Street is factoring earnings into its equation.
New highs would be easy to hit (DJIA: 27,398; S&P 500:3,028). The S&P hit 3,016 yesterday.
New highs by the S&P would trigger news headlines and rush to buy.
However, with the markets as historically overpriced as it is now, a recession looming, and the uncertainty of a presidential impeachment process underway, a sustainable surge from these levels stands to be short lived.

Thursday, Oct. 24  “Watching and Waiting….for a signal”
Street is watching and waiting for a signal on trade and earnings, not just Q3 but guidance and projections for 2020, which has so far been projected to be better than this year.
If the Fed cannot head off a recession, the Street will be slashing 2020 earnings projections which would  adversely impact an overvalued market.
Odds are good we already are in a recession, so the Fed has its work cut out for it.  The Fed is cutting rates and employing a variation of QE, so I don’t know what it can do if we get into a severe recession.
These are strange times.
But a Fed rate cut is built into current pricing and much of expected progress on trade.
Failure to cut rates and/or failure to make progress on trade would hammer prices.
I think the market has a shot at new highs, which would be accompanied by a lot of press, Administration and Street hoopla, driving the market up temporarily and maybe into early January before a major correction develops.
Playing that move by buying the breakout would be a challenge for all but the nimble and quick.
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Wednesday Oct. 23 “Buying a Breakout to New Highs Would Be Risky”
A ho-hummer yesterday, today stands to follow suit, unless we get hit with negative surprises on earnings.
Over the last four days, the major market averages have tried to break out to new highs for the fourth time since August.
It still can happen if progress on trade is announced, and actually happened.
The question is, how much is progress on trade and Fed rate cuts built into current prices ?
I think – a lot with the S&P 500 significantly overvalued.
Q3 earnings
are hitting the Street. While better than expected, expectations had been lowered significantly before the report period.
Even so, Disappointing results from Caterpillar (CAT) and Texas Instruments (TXN) yesterday reminded the Street not all is well.
Progress on trade seems to be announced only after a couple bad days in the market, the Fed is expected to cut its fed funds ratye on the 30th.
Retail sales remain soft, but existing homes sales are firm on a year/year basis.
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Tuesday Oct 22  “OCTOBER  – A pivot month”
October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.”[2]
      October hosted bear market bottoms in1957. 1960, 1966, 1987. 1990,, 1nd 2002, but AFTER bear market declines, which we have not had yet.

October market one bull market top – 2007, the beginning of the Great Recession/Bull Market.
President Trumps saying trade talks with China are coming along very well. More importantly, China’s chief trade negotiator, Vice Premier Liu He, indicates trade negotiations are progressing well for phase one with a potential for signing in mid-November.
We have been down this road before, and the stock market appears to agree, though talks can hit a snag at any time.
The question is, how much of an agreement in phase one as well as a Fed rate cut, are already priced in the market at these levels ?
We are so close to new all-time highs, I think we can hit them with or without an agreement, but only temporarily.

The all-time high for the DJIA is 27,398 (now 26,827); the all-time high for the S&P 500  is 3028 (now 3,006).
Anticipation of progress in the trade talks and or a Fed rate cut on the 30th could push the market averages to new highs.
Buying the news would be HIGHLY RISKY in light of looming negatives and a very pricey market.
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Monday  Oct. 21  “Market Locked in Limbo  By News Whipsaw”
The market is in a consolidation phase as investors wait for more info on trade, the economy, the Fed on interest rates and impeachment proceedings.
Trade is obviously the big one, but we only get bits & pieces to the puzzle as two huge egos joust for an edge.
The economy is slipping with little to suggest we aren’t in the early stages of recession; the Fed is expected to cut  its fed funds rate again on the 30th, but that is already priced in the market.
As for impeachment proceedings, daily disclosures of news negative to the Trump administration chip away at investor confidence.
Bottom line: a market locked in limbo, with swings in both directions but unable to trend meaningfully in one direction or the other.
Odds favor a rally attempt today.
The Street wants to be bullish, and will seize on any news that reinforce its optimism.
Bears see a high risk of a big move down.
This spells news whipsaw with unplayable swings in both directions.
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What No One on Wall Street Wants to Hear
>We are in the late innings of an economic expansion, so a recession is a good bet. The current expansion started in June 2009, has lasted 122 months, the longest  in history, twice as long as the average length of 11 cycles since 1945.
> Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months.  The unemployment rate is 3.5% which was hit in September.  Technically, we won’t know when the start of the current recession is official for months after the fact, since that conclusion is  reached by the Nat’l Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and they consider  host of economic indicators.
>Bear markets lead the beginning of recessions by 3 to 12 months.  The current bull market at 126 months is 4.2 times the average of the last 15 bulls going back to 1957
 >Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House.
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George Brooks
Investor’s first read.com
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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