Bulls Edge Ahead

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA:  17,752
S&P 500: 2,081
Nasdaq  Comp:5,073
Russell 2000: 1,166

Friday:  Nov. 20, 2015   9:13 a.m.


     Strange market. In this business a person can be wrong when the market goes up or goes down but being wrong if the market does nothing can take some doing.

     So it was with my “Key Day” post yesterday, where I wrote that we should know who wins (tug-of-war) by 10:30 – bulls, or bears. The market did nothing.

     Realistically, a flat trading day after a sharp jump on Wednesday in face of  assurances by the Fed  that it believed the economy could handle an increase in rates in December, is a positive.

     That surge ran counter to the Street’s usual reaction to a potential rate increase, where the Street sold on news of an increase and bought on news of  “no action.”

      It looks like the Street needed a day to digest the FOMC report and commentary by Fed officials.    

      What’s more, the Wednesday surge improved the “technical” picture, setting the stage for more upside with the possibility of attacking all-time highs – DJIA18,351, S&P 500: 2,134, Nasdaq Comp.: 5,231).      


SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:17,639; S&P 500: 2,068; Nasdaq Comp.:5,044

RESISTANCE “today”: DJIA:17,886; S&P 500:2,097;Nasdaq Comp.:5,111


NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.



 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  November 19, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 17,580 a more extreme risk is 17,436. Near-term upside potential is 17,967

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but “at risk” of  a correction, especially Fed-based
  • OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk increases with higher market, but light on the Street is GREEN in spite of negatives.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45% depends on tolerance for risk.
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; Stimulus Europe/China a catalyst !!
  • CONCLUSION: Suddenly, odds of a December bump up in interest rates has increased dramatically. Over the years, the market has sold off when it appeared that an increase was imminent.  It did not do so after the announcement Friday, but did on Monday as the Street began projecting the timing of subsequent rate increases in 2016 – 2017.

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

*Stock Trader’s Almanac


George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication


Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk









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