Bulls Need Follow Through Today

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,977                                    
S&P 500: 2,081
Nasdaq  Comp.:4,929
Russell 2000:    1,239

Tuesday,  March 17, 2015 

 

    Wall Street celebrated news yesterday of slumps in three areas of the economy with a resounding rally. Industrial Production  was down for the third straight month, New York area manufacturing took another hit and U.S. homebuilder confidence hit an 8-month low.

     The Street was heartened by the reports since they suggest the Fed will not raise its benchmark interest rate in the near future with the prospect of a slowing in the economy –  Go figure !  

     It’s still the “bad is good” mentality – Who are these people ?  Really – Stocks have risen in the past along with rising interest rates to a point. But a bump off “zero” shouldn’t devastate the economy.

     While the market will take a hit on the first concrete news that the Fed will raise rates, investors should be prepared for a surge in stock prices following a sharp, but brief, plunge on the news. That would be what is least expected.

     Quadruple Witching Friday looms bringing the potential for increased volatility. On the 3rd Friday of March, June, September and December index futures, index options, stock options, and stock futures expire.

TODAY: Yesterday’s momentum can drive the DJIA up to 18,096 (S&P500: 2,094). That would be a stretch after yesterday’s sharp rebound. A little slippage would be normal in early trading

Near-term support is DJIA 17,927 (S&P500: 2,073).  Breaking that, DJIA 17,797 (S&P 500: 2,057) comes into play.

George Brooks

Investor’s first read

A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

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Note: I discontinued my daily – before – open publishing of Investor’s first read on November 5, 2014, after 6 years (1.600 posts).  Future publishing will be on a less frequent basis and not always before the market opens. In the interim, I will publish as I see necessary as I craft a new format.

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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment decisions in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

Bulls Must Push DJIA Above 17,900

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,749                                    

S&P 500: 2,053

Nasdaq  Comp.:4,871

Russell 2000:    1,232

Monday,  March 16, 2015      9:11a.m.

     The stock market rebounded sharply from my support in the DJIA 17,620 (S&P 500: 2,040) area Friday as it also did Thursday, but the follow through was limited. While the Russell 2000 was down for the day, it performed better than the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp.

     The Street  continues to be haunted by the prospect of a Fed decision to raise interest rates from its benchmark rate which has been held at close to zero since 2008.

     The FOMC meets Tuesday with a Fed Chair Yellen press conference at 2:30 Wednesday. The Street will parse every word of Yellen’s comments for clues  to the timing of the Fed’s first increase in its benchmark “funds” interest rate.

     Today’s economic reports include Empire State Mfg. (8:30), Industrial Prod, (9:15), Housing Market (10:00). The Street would welcome soft numbers, reasoning weakness in the economy, rather than strength, would delay a fed decision to raise rates, i.e., bad is good.

     The Street simply cannot wean itself from the Fed teet.  Bad wasn’t so good back in 2008.

     It is what it is, folks – boneheaded – logical or illogical, it has to be dealt with.

     While the market will take a hit on the first concrete news that the Fed will raise rates, investors should be prepared for a surge in stock prices following a sharp, but brief, plunge on the news. That would be what is least expected.

     Quadruple Witching Friday looms bringing the potential for increased volatility. On the 3rd Friday of March, June, September and December index futures, index options, stock options, and stock futures expire.

TODAY:  The bulls must push the DJIA across 17,900 (S&P 500: 2,068) to rebalance the market in favor of the bulls. Actually the DJIA will begin to encounter resistance at 17,876 (S&P 500: 2,066). Near-term support is DJIA 17,690 (S&P 500: 2,046).

   A rally failure early this week raises odd of a spike down to DJIA: 17,454 (S&P 500: 2,026), which could set up a buying juncture.

George Brooks

Investor’s first read

A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

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Note: I discontinued my daily – before – open publishing of Investor’s first read on November 5, 2014, after 6 years (1.600 posts).  Future publishing will be on a less frequent basis and not always before the market opens. In the interim, I will publish as I see necessary as I craft a new format.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment decisions in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

Key Short-Term Juncture

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA:  17,895                                   

S&P 500: 2,065

Nasdaq  Comp.: 4,803

Russell 2000:    1,236

Friday,  March 13, 2015

 

 

The stock market rebounded sharply from my support in the DJIA 17,615 (S&P 500: 2,050 area yesterday with the Russell 2000 leading the charge.

The Street  continues to be haunted by the prospect of a Fed decision to raise interest rates; its benchmark rate has been held at close to zero since 2008.

While the market will take a hit on the first concrete news that the Fed will raise rates,  investors should be prepared for a surge in stock prices following a sharp, but brief, plunge on the news.

TODAY

The market should attempt to give back some of yesterday’s gains with initial support at DJIA: 17,815 (S&P 500: 2,057).  Breaking that calls for a test of this week’s lows in the DJIA 17,620 (S&P 500: 2,040) area.

Resistance begins  at DJIA 17,953 (S&P 500: 2,073)

George Brooks

Investor’s first read

A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Note: I discontinued the daily – before – open publishing of Investor’s first read on November 5, 2014, intending to begin publishing again on a less frequent basis and not always before the market opens. In the interim, I will publish occasionally as I see necessary as I craft a new format.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment decisions in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

Market Seeks Comfort Level on Rate Increase

Investor’s first read

DJIA:  17,995                                   

S&P 500: 2,079

Nasdaq  Comp.: 4,942

Russell 2000:    1,176

Tuesday March 10, 2015

The markets are  adjusting for something the Street has feared  for years – a rise in interest rates. Add to that, a slowdown in corporate earnings growth and a 6-year old bull market which has stretched valuations, and you have the potential for a nasty correction.

But, we have been here before –  a correction that is short-lived only to be followed by a surge in prices.

Bull markets can live with higher interest rates, but the idea of a change rattles the cage. A cash reserve is always smart under these conditions, clearly 15% – 20% is reasonable. It cushions against a further decline, and gives an investor an opportunity to take advantage of lower prices.

The risk here is for a drop to DJIA 17,615. Breaking that 17,454 comes into play. S&P 500 risk is 2,050. Breaking that 2,020 comes into play. The DJIA 18,165 (S&P 500: 2,106) level must be broken on the upside to reverse the current negative pattern.

On Thursday March 19, Apple (AAPL) will replace AT&T (T) as one of the 30 DJIAs. I expect this move to increase the volatility of the blue chip average.

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Yesterday marked the  SIXTH Anniversary of  the March 9, 2009,  bear market bottom and my Special Bulletin “BUY”  on March 10, with the DJIA at 6,805. Through its March 2, 2015 all-time high, the bull has logged in a 184% gain.

February 24, 2009  (DJIA:   7,114“Does the Cauldron of Fear Have to Boil Before This Market Turns ?”

Conclusion:  Countdown to bear bottom begins – 

February 25, 2009  ( DJIA: 7,350 “When the Fear of Owning Stocks Turns to Fear of NOT Owning Stocks” …before the Big money runs the table, you should be working your way back into the market, either via a managed fund, Exchange Traded Fund (ETF), or by taking partial positions in stocks you want to own.

February 27, 2009 ( DJIA: 7,182 ) “Lock and Load”  a surge of 2,000 points in the DJIA ? 

March 2, 2012  (DJIA:  7,062)   “$9 trillion Cash on the Sidelines vs $8 Trillion NYSE Market Value”

Conclusion: An unbelievable stat –  amazing – unprecedented buying power

March 2, 2009  ( DJIA: 6,832 “Ready …Aim.  ”SPECIAL BULLETIN”

Conclusion:  Get ready for a buying opportunity

March 3, 2009  ( DJIA:   6,818 ) “Big Money Reaching for the Bushel Basket”

ConclusionThe smart money was out there catching  stock at bargain prices

March 4, 2009 (DJIA:  6,726) “Once off the Sidelines, Big Money Good for a 1,500 – 2,000-point Rally” –a buying opportunity of a lifetime.

Conclusion: DJIA rose 2,000 points within 3 months

March 5, 2009 (Thursday – DJIA:   6,875 )   “Climactic Buy Possible by Tuesday”

Conclusion: DJIA hit its bear market bottom the following Monday.

March 9, 2009          ( DJIA:   6,626 “Be Ready for a Big Buying Opportunity”

We are getting ever so close to a bear market bottom. Be ready,

March 10, 2009  ( DJIA: 6,805)  “FIRE !”   (BUY !) 

Conclusion: The Bear Market bottom. I issued a Special Bulletin after the DJIA hit its intraday low of 6,440.

George Brooks

Investor’s first read

A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

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Note: I discontinued publishing Investor’s first read on a "daily – before the open" basis on November 5, 2014, intending to begin publishing again on a less frequent basis and not always before the market opens. In the interim, I will publish occasionally as I see necessary.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment decisions in keeping with their tolerance for risk.