One More POP Possible, Risk’s High – Careful !

INVESTOR’S first read.com – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:28,363
S&P 500: 3,453
Nasdaq Comp.:11,506
Russell: 1,670
Friday  October 23, 2020    9:17 a.m.
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brooksie01@aol.com
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November 15, 2019 (DJIA – 28,004)   I Called for a bear market to start in January, that the initial plunge would be 12%-18% – “straight down.” It started mid-February, dropped 16.3%, rallied then  plunged another 32.8%.
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January 20, 2020 (DJIA:29,348) My blog,  “INSANITY,” projected a bear market decline of  30% – 45%. The DJIA plunged 38.4% in 21 days.
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With the DJIA at 18,591on March 24, I wrote that , while I see lower prices later in the year, I expect a big rally with the upside potential of DJIA 22,037 (S&P 500 : 2,617) – it went higher.
With the DJIA at 23,942 (S&P 500) on April 15, I
called for  an end to  rally, up 29% but well short of  today.   how far the rally extended.  On May 18, I began to warn of  Bubble #2
August 6, I headline “SELL” with DJIA at 27,201 (S&P 500:3,327). Another “Fed” bubble.
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The final debate is behind us, in 11 days the voting will be over, but we may not have an answer to the Presidency, which translates into UNCERTAINTY.
Meanwhile, the issue of another stimulus drags on with some talk about a deal after the election.  I have believed we would get a  stimulus before the election, after it -NO !
Without a stimulus, odds of another dip down in the economy are increased, and that is not factored into a market that is more overvalued than at any time in the past except the dot-com bubble of 1999-2000.
Presidential candidate Biden says he would govern as president of all the people, ones who voted for him and ones who didn’t.  That would be a great start after all the divisiveness we have seen over the past 4 years.
 Be very careful here.
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Resistance:  DJIA: 28,515 ; SPX: 3,497  ; COMP:11,667  ; QQQ: 286.6
Support: DJIA:28,347  ;  S&P 500:3,446 ; Nasdaq: 11,462 ; QQQ: 283
Note: News of a failure to reach a bill would hammer stocks.
………………………………………………………………………………….
I would like to try the following for the market averages and selected stocks.
The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels –  Changes in broker ratings and earnings reports/projections add to the difficulty. Technical-only estimates of short-term price ranges  for today are:
FB:
281-276
AMZN: 3,196 – 3,161
AAPL:117.6 – 115.5
NFLX: 488- 474
GOOG: 1,636 -1,614
TSLA: 429-415
MSFT: 216-214.5
Again, These  are “technical chart reads.” I am not checking  earnings, news, buy/sell recommendations. These levels change frequently.
Some markets are easier to read than others. I like a rough and tumble market, that’s where the opportunities are albeit risks.  That’s where “wild bid” opportunities crop up, where a bid  set well below the market for a stock can be nailed for a turn that occurs in just a fleeting second.  These are usually not at conventional support levels, but a bit below those levels. If the stock doesn’t trip it, a trader looks for the next one.  The key is cut losses short. Sometimes partial positions work better than an “all-in” strategy, especially in a news whipsaw market where the market gets jerked around by conflicting news releases.

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RECENT POSTS:
Thursday October 22, 2020 (DJIA: 28,210) “ A Stimulus Announcement Would Trigger Selling Opportunity”
Technically, the market looks like it is ready to drop sharply.
What is holding it up is the possibility that a stimulus package will be announced at any time. For it to do any party any good there are only 12 days before the election.
Based on recent economic reports, the economy looks like it is recovering, though signs of a stall are  showing up in employment and manufacturing.
        A go on a stimulus would cheer up some, but be a sign the economy is in bad shape.
BOTTOM LINE:
The prospect for a big crunch in stock prices hinges on whether the Street sees another dip in the economy, a “W” instead of a “V.”
The third surge in COVID-19 as we enter the Flu season suggests we are headed for another dip in the economy.
As warned here many times, the  market is vastly overvalued based on time-tested measures of value compared with all market tops going back 50  years.
The Street’s algos are still “buy-biased,” but aren’t programmed for the risks that current conditions pose.
Any change from the buy-bias would trigger a plunge in prices.

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Resistance:  DJIA: 28,298; SPX: 3,459 ; COMP:11,537 ; QQQ: 286
Support: DJIA: 27,815;  S&P 500:3,435 ; Nasdaq:11,475; QQQ: 273.5
Note: News of a failure to reach a bill would hammer stocks.
………………………………………………………………………………….
I would like to try the following for the above stocks.
The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – . Changes in broker ratings and earnings reports/projections add to the difficulty. Technical-only estimates of short-term price ranges are:
FB:
283-277; AMZN: 3,201 – 3,171; AAPL:117.5 – 116.2; NFLX: 493- 473 GOOG: 1,547-1,576; TSLA: 448-422; MSFT: 217-214.
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RECENT POSTS:
Wednesday October 21, 2020 :
(DJIA: 28,308) “Stimulus Passage to Trigger Brief Rally and Selling Opportunity – Message: Economy in Big Trouble”
       I still think a stimulus is going to happen, about $1.85 trillion.
If so, the message is the economy is in trouble, that the big bounce since Q1 and Q2, is just that – a bounce.
That bounce is ALL STIMULUS, without which it would be a Depression.  So, what is going to prop it up going forward with the third spike in COVID-19 surging out of control, as we enter the Flu season ?
It means the bounce runs out of steam and an overvalued stock market becomes more reasonably valued as prices plunge.
Nowhere else to put one’s money ?  That didn’t look so smart when the market Was down 35% in in 21 days in March.
The Fed and Congress stepped in to bail out the economy and stock market  (in a presidential election year), and that cannot be expected  this time around.
Q2 earnings
are hitting the Street at a time a lot of Americans are hoping for the passage of another stimulus package. And of course, there is the election.
I sense, the Street believes in a “V”– shaped economic recovery. If so, why is there so much selling on strength ? Four out of the last five days have given up nice gains (rally failures).
Yesterday, I called attention to a double top  formation with the first  top coming on September 2 and the second top on October 2.  A broader double top formed on February 12 and September 2.
Generally, there has been enough selling to turn the market down  around DJIA 29,000 and S&P 500 3,433.
     This suggests a tiring market with the potential of a sharp decline to more realistic levels. Wrong so far ?
Yep.
All I care about is that readers protect themselves from another flash crash by  having a cash reserve in line with their tolerance for risk.
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Resistance:  DJIA: 29,430; SPX:3,467 ; COMP:11,587 ; QQQ: 286
Support: DJIA: 28,167;  S&P 500:3,402 ; Nasdaq:11,407; QQQ: 275
Note: News of a failure to reach a bill would hammer stocks.
………………………………………………………………………………….
I would like to try the following for the above stocks.
The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – . Changes in broker ratings and earnings reports/projections add to the difficulty. Technical-only estimates of short-term price ranges are:
FB:
277-267; AMZN: 3,227 – 3,067; AAPL:118.5 – 117; NFLX: 526- 501; GOOG: 1,563-1,546; TSLA: 437-403; MSFT: 216-211.
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Tuesday  October 20, 2020 (DJIA: 28.195) “ Double Top Sets Up Big Crunch. Sell Stimulus Bill News”
I have criticized the “Fed” for creating Bubble #1
(January 2019 – February 2020), which COVID pricked leading to a 21-day 35% freefall in stock prices.  Fed Bubble #2 reversed that plunge sending all but the DJIA to new all-time highs.
I believe in free trading of stocks without Fed interference. I have never believed they understood market action, the flow of stock prices up and down in response to known and perceived  economic, social, international, fundamental, and economic conditions.
The Fed “PUT” is a term used to refer to Wall Street’s belief that the Fed will bail out the market if it tumbles too much with cuts in interest rates and bombarding the economy with money.
Federal Reserve Board members Brainard, Rosengren and Kashkari think it is time to  shelve the Fed PUT and that may be what will trigger a revision in the Street’s algos that have driven the market’s relentless surge in recent years at a time global economies are crumbling.
    Currently, the Street’s algos are not programmed to factor in a seriously divided country, the potential for major social unrest and the third surge in COVID during flu season and a double-dip in the economic recovery.
If the Street has to pull the Fed PUT from its algos, the markets will have to find a level that is far less overvalued, and that will be lower, a lot lower.
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BOTTOM LINE:
I still believe we will get another  stimulus, this one coming in at $1.85 trillion. An announcement of a tentative  agreement would come before the open tomorrow and would  temporarily pop the market, providing investors with a chance to lighten up on the news.
We should know whether a stimulus is a “GO” or “Non GO” today.
THE STREET EXPECTS A BILL. ANY INDICATION THAT IT WON’T HAPPEN WILL HAMMER STOCKS.
     It looks like a Double Top has formed in the market, with the first top coming on September 2 and the second on October 2.   A broader double top has formed  between February 12 and September 3.
That is a warning signal ! The message is, there are sellers at these levels, generally DJIA 29,000 and S&P 500: 3,550. The Nasdaq Comp. ran well beyond February’s peak but has traced out a double top around 12,000.
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Resistance:  DJIA: 29,430; SPX:3,457 ; COMP:11,587 ; QQQ: 286.3
Support: DJIA: 28,251;  S&P 500:3,433 ; Nasdaq:11,510; QQQ: 284
Note: I am assuming the Street expects another stimulus bill and will gap stocks at the open, which explains my higher supports.  News of a failure to reach a bill would hammer stocks.
………………………………………………………………………………….
I would like to try the following for the above stocks.
The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – . Changes in broker ratings and earnings reports/projections add to the difficulty. Technical-only estimates of short-term price ranges are:
FB:
264-261; AMZN: 3,237 – 3,215; AAPL:118 – 116; NFLX: 537- 533; GOOG: 1,530-1,507; TSLA: 433-417; MSFT: 216-213.
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Monday  October 19, 2020 (DJIA: 28,606) “Stimulus Deal Imminent ? Sell the News”
A stimulus package before the Nov. 3 election ?   I think it makes sense, something around $1.85 trillion.   A lot of hurting people hope so. That would be close to the $2.2 trillion  the Democratic U.S. House passed earlier in the month, down from an original proposal of $3.4 trillion.
It would do two thingsHelp hurting people, for one, remind us the economy is still in a bad place.
What about the stock market which so far has gotten a free pass on all the misery COVID-19 has meted out ?  I have experienced every bear and bull since 1960 and have never seen a stock market ignore economic adversity on  this scale.
Part of that is the construction of our market averages/indexes which enable high priced and monster market value stocks to dominate the market, while the struggling of smaller companies goes undetected.
IMHO, it is the reliance on algorithms (algos) to call the shots.
Why would algos ignore economic adversity on this scale and contribute to an overvalued stock market  ?  Because, they can’t be programmed to factor in the  inept, misplaced and incompetent running of our government, an unstable president who has razed the rule of law, failed to address COVID’s rampage, and seriously divided our country.
When will the stock market reflect this damage ? It did in a 21-day, 35% rout of the stock market in February/March, but the algos were buying giving us a market that is more overvalued than before COVOD hit.
BOTTOM LINE:
      The fish are running. For some it is safe to toss in a line. For others, have a cash reserve in line with your tolerance for risk.

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Resistance:  DJIA: 28,717; SPX:3,496 ; COMP:11,727 ; QQQ: 290.6
Support: DJIA: 28,630;  S&P 500:3,487 ; Nasdaq:11,667; QQQ: 289
………………………………………………………………………………….
I would like to try the following for the above stocks.
The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – . Changes in broker ratings and earnings reports/projections add to the difficulty. Technical-only estimates of short-term price ranges are:
FB:
268-264; AMZN: 3,315 – 3,246; AAPL:119.8 – 117.8; NFLX: 537- 531; GOOG: 1,580-1,568; TSLA: 447-443; MSFT: 221-219.
Not sure this can work in this crazy environment, this is one of the most difficult tasks to perform accurately.
Obviously, a flash crash out of nowhere negates any estimates
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Thursday  October 15, 2020 (DJIA:28,513) “Recession Over ? Depends on Who You Ask – Flash Crash Before Election? Good Bet”
Is the recession that started in February over ?

Depends on who you ask.
If you ask Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida you would get a strong “maybe.” If you ask the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official scorekeeper, you’ll get a “We’ll let you know when we have waded through a host of economic date, and that could be in a day or two, on not for months !”
If you ask most struggling Americans, you’ll get a snarl.
Clarida told attendees at the Institute for International Finance conference yesterday, “This recession was by far the deepest in postwar history, but it also may go into the record books as the briefest recession in U.S. history.”
The shortest on record going back to 1857 was a 6 monther (January-July 1980), so I doubt it.
Historically, the NBER takes its time marking  the beginning and end of recessions, since its analysis encompasses a host of data.
       If you ask me, I would say the Administration is currently twisting arms, legs, and  whatever to get a declaration from the NBER before November 3.  They may take Fed Vice Chair Clarida’s quote anyhow and run with it at the Town Hall tonight.
If in fact the recession is over, why would Congress be considering another  stimulus ?
If this was not a presidential election year, would any of this be happening ?
Odds are against it, but I think they will agree  to a $1.85 trillion stimulus.
BOTTOM LINE:
     This is a phony economy: without all the Fed and Congressional  stimulus to-date, we’d be in a depression.
This is a phony stock market: vastly overpriced propped by brainless algos, which will betray their programmers any day.
This is a phony Administration: Lies, untethered divisiveness, Un-American attempt to undermine our democratic representative constitutional republic that hundreds of thousands of real Americans gave life and limb to defend.
At some point, we will pay a dear price for this behavior at the top. This may be the first time ever that there has been a stock market that has hit new all-time highs while the vast number of Americans are suffering, economically, physically, and socially.  It will adjust downward, and that downward will be devastating. 
With the prospect of a post-stimulus slump in the economy, any declaration of an end to the recession would be premature, but stranger things have happened over the last four years.
The stock market has sizzled while the economy fizzled. There is something very dangerous about that.
What if the stock market suddenly adjusted to levels that have reflected all that is happening ?
ANSWER: Flash Crash
BEWARE: The three amigos (the Fed, the Administration, and the Street) will hype the market with as much BS as they can drag out going into the election. This will trigger brief rallies that will be dangerous to chase.
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Resistance:  DJIA: 28,725; SPX: 3,521; COMP: 11901; QQQ: 295.50
Support: DJIA: 28,110;  S&P 500: 3,450; Nasdaq:11,630; QQQ: 292-286
………………………………………………………………………………….
Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/12
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     272
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,363
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      121
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      541
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:  1,568
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      461
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:      220
…………………………………………………………………………………..
I would like to try the following for the above stocks.
The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – . Changes in broker ratings and earnings reports/projections add to the difficulty. Technical-only estimates of short-term price ranges are:
FB:
272-266; AMZN: 3,363 – 3,298; AAPL:121-120; NFLX: 541- 527; GOOG: 1,568-1,540; TSLA: 461-437; MSFT: 220-217.
Obviously, a flash crash out of nowhere negates any estimates.
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Wednesday  October 15, 2020 (DJIA: 28,679) “Tie Game – Bulls and Bears”
Q3 earnings will hit the Street in coming weeks. With so many companies reluctant to provide guidance, there will be some surprises in both directions.
Generally S&P 500 companies are expected to log in losses on average of as much as 15%
But who knows what magic the crafters of the bottom lines can come up with ?
It can be a hazardous venture for anyone buying before an earnings report, worse yet, are analysts  revisions for the next quarter along with those deadly downgrades.
      Analyst ratings include: Strong Buy, Buy, outperform, overweight, Accumulate Neutral, Market Perform, Market Underperform, Underweight and more.
Just a seemingly minor downgrade can hammer a stock, like Buy from Strong Buy.     With so much uncertainty and potential for  surprises, ratings changes will increase, hazardous for holders of stocks as well as short sellers
BOTTOM LINE:
We could be tracing out a major double top September 3rd and now.  We  are experiencing an economic rebound from the extreme lows posted in March and April.  The key is follow through.  Can the rebound get legs, or has too much internal damage  been done ? Too early to tell.
As noted repeatedly, the S&P 500 is historically very overvalued. Its Price to Sales ratio  is out of sight relative to the past.  The same for its Price to Earnings ratio/
       At some point, the market must adjust to reality, a level that discounts known and perceived positives and negatives. Odds indicate that would be lower, but the “fever” on the Street is running hot, and it will take a major break in ranks by institutions to send the market down. That can happen at any moment.  Investors are sitting on major gains, which must be locked in at some point….before the market plunges.

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Resistance:  DJIA: 28,725; SPX: 3,521; COMP: 11901; QQQ: 295.50
………………………………………………………………………………….
Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/12
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     276
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,443
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      121
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      544
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:  1,571
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      446
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:      223
Key near-term resistance: The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – down one day on news, up the next. It looks like we are seeing short covering in the techs, new buying risky. RESISTANCE STARTS: FB:279; AMZN:3,379; AAPL: 123*; NFLX: 571*; GOOG: 1,595*; TSLA: 454; MSFT: 230 * Update
Note: GOOG and NFLX are showing bids above Tuesday’s close.   >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                          
George Brooks
Investor’s first read.com
brooksie01@aol.com
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stimulus Announcement Would Trigger Selling Opportunity

INVESTOR’S first read.com – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:28,210
S&P 500: 3,435
Nasdaq Comp.:11,484
Russell: 1,603
Thursday  October 22, 2020    9:17 a.m.
……………………………………..
brooksie01@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

November 15, 2019 (DJIA – 28,004)   I Called for a bear market to start in January, that the initial plunge would be 12%-18% – “straight down.” It started mid-February, dropped 16.3%, rallied then  plunged another 32.8%.
…………………………………………………..
January 20, 2020 (DJIA:29,348) My blog,  “INSANITY,” projected a bear market decline of  30% – 45%. The DJIA plunged 38.4% in 21 days.
………………………………………………….
With the DJIA at 18,591on March 24, I wrote that , while I see lower prices later in the year, I expect a big rally with the upside potential of DJIA 22,037 (S&P 500 : 2,617) – it went higher.
With the DJIA at 23,942 (S&P 500) on April 15, I
called for  an end to  rally, up 29% but well short of  today.   how far the rally extended.  On May 18, I began to warn of  Bubble #2
August 6, I headline “SELL” with DJIA at 27,201 (S&P 500:3,327). Another “Fed” bubble.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Technically, the market looks like it is ready to drop sharply.
What is holding it up is the possibility that a stimulus package will be announced at any time. For it to do any party any good there are only 12 days before the election.
Based on recent economic reports, the economy looks like it is recovering, though signs of a stall are  showing up in employment and manufacturing.
        A go on a stimulus would cheer up some, but be a sign the economy is in bad shape.
BOTTOM LINE:
The prospect for a big crunch in stock prices hinges on whether the Street sees another dip in the economy, a “W” instead of a “V.”
The third surge in COVID-19 as we enter the Flu season suggests we are headed for another dip in the economy.
As warned here many times, the  market is vastly overvalued based on time-tested measures of value compared with all market tops going back 50  years.
The Street’s algos are still “buy-biased,” but aren’t programmed for the risks that current conditions pose.
Any change from the buy-bias would trigger a plunge in prices.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Resistance:  DJIA: 28,298; SPX: 3,459 ; COMP:11,537 ; QQQ: 286
Support: DJIA: 27,815;  S&P 500:3,435 ; Nasdaq:11,475; QQQ: 273.5
Note: News of a failure to reach a bill would hammer stocks.
………………………………………………………………………………….
I would like to try the following for the above stocks.
The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – . Changes in broker ratings and earnings reports/projections add to the difficulty. Technical-only estimates of short-term price ranges are:
FB:
283-277; AMZN: 3,201 – 3,171; AAPL:117.5 – 116.2; NFLX: 493- 473 GOOG: 1,547-1,576; TSLA: 448-422; MSFT: 217-214.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

RECENT POSTS:
Wednesday October 21, 2020 : (DJIA: 28,308) “Stimulus Passage to Trigger Brief Rally and Selling Opportunity – Message: Economy in Big Trouble”
       I still think a stimulus is going to happen, about $1.85 trillion.
If so, the message is the economy is in trouble, that the big bounce since Q1 and Q2, is just that – a bounce.
That bounce is ALL STIMULUS, without which it would be a Depression.  So, what is going to prop it up going forward with the third spike in COVID-19 surging out of control, as we enter the Flu season ?
It means the bounce runs out of steam and an overvalued stock market becomes more reasonably valued as prices plunge.
Nowhere else to put one’s money ?  That didn’t look so smart when the market Was down 35% in in 21 days in March.
The Fed and Congress stepped in to bail out the economy and stock market  (in a presidential election year), and that cannot be expected  this time around.
Q2 earnings
are hitting the Street at a time a lot of Americans are hoping for the passage of another stimulus package. And of course, there is the election.
I sense, the Street believes in a “V”– shaped economic recovery. If so, why is there so much selling on strength ? Four out of the last five days have given up nice gains (rally failures).
Yesterday, I called attention to a double top  formation with the first  top coming on September 2 and the second top on October 2.  A broader double top formed on February 12 and September 2.
Generally, there has been enough selling to turn the market down  around DJIA 29,000 and S&P 500 3,433.
     This suggests a tiring market with the potential of a sharp decline to more realistic levels. Wrong so far ?
Yep.
All I care about is that readers protect themselves from another flash crash by  having a cash reserve in line with their tolerance for risk.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Resistance:  DJIA: 29,430; SPX:3,467 ; COMP:11,587 ; QQQ: 286
Support: DJIA: 28,167;  S&P 500:3,402 ; Nasdaq:11,407; QQQ: 275
Note: News of a failure to reach a bill would hammer stocks.
………………………………………………………………………………….
I would like to try the following for the above stocks.
The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – . Changes in broker ratings and earnings reports/projections add to the difficulty. Technical-only estimates of short-term price ranges are:
FB:
277-267; AMZN: 3,227 – 3,067; AAPL:118.5 – 117; NFLX: 526- 501; GOOG: 1,563-1,546; TSLA: 437-403; MSFT: 216-211.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Tuesday  October 20, 2020 (DJIA: 28.195) “ Double Top Sets Up Big Crunch. Sell Stimulus Bill News”
I have criticized the “Fed” for creating Bubble #1
(January 2019 – February 2020), which COVID pricked leading to a 21-day 35% freefall in stock prices.  Fed Bubble #2 reversed that plunge sending all but the DJIA to new all-time highs.
I believe in free trading of stocks without Fed interference. I have never believed they understood market action, the flow of stock prices up and down in response to known and perceived  economic, social, international, fundamental, and economic conditions.
The Fed “PUT” is a term used to refer to Wall Street’s belief that the Fed will bail out the market if it tumbles too much with cuts in interest rates and bombarding the economy with money.
Federal Reserve Board members Brainard, Rosengren and Kashkari think it is time to  shelve the Fed PUT and that may be what will trigger a revision in the Street’s algos that have driven the market’s relentless surge in recent years at a time global economies are crumbling.
    Currently, the Street’s algos are not programmed to factor in a seriously divided country, the potential for major social unrest and the third surge in COVID during flu season and a double-dip in the economic recovery.
If the Street has to pull the Fed PUT from its algos, the markets will have to find a level that is far less overvalued, and that will be lower, a lot lower.
………………………………………………………………………………….
BOTTOM LINE:
I still believe we will get another  stimulus, this one coming in at $1.85 trillion. An announcement of a tentative  agreement would come before the open tomorrow and would  temporarily pop the market, providing investors with a chance to lighten up on the news.
We should know whether a stimulus is a “GO” or “Non GO” today.
THE STREET EXPECTS A BILL. ANY INDICATION THAT IT WON’T HAPPEN WILL HAMMER STOCKS.
     It looks like a Double Top has formed in the market, with the first top coming on September 2 and the second on October 2.   A broader double top has formed  between February 12 and September 3.
That is a warning signal ! The message is, there are sellers at these levels, generally DJIA 29,000 and S&P 500: 3,550. The Nasdaq Comp. ran well beyond February’s peak but has traced out a double top around 12,000.
………………………………………………………………………………….

Resistance:  DJIA: 29,430; SPX:3,457 ; COMP:11,587 ; QQQ: 286.3
Support: DJIA: 28,251;  S&P 500:3,433 ; Nasdaq:11,510; QQQ: 284
Note: I am assuming the Street expects another stimulus bill and will gap stocks at the open, which explains my higher supports.  News of a failure to reach a bill would hammer stocks.
………………………………………………………………………………….
I would like to try the following for the above stocks.
The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – . Changes in broker ratings and earnings reports/projections add to the difficulty. Technical-only estimates of short-term price ranges are:
FB:
264-261; AMZN: 3,237 – 3,215; AAPL:118 – 116; NFLX: 537- 533; GOOG: 1,530-1,507; TSLA: 433-417; MSFT: 216-213.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Monday  October 19, 2020 (DJIA: 28,606) “Stimulus Deal Imminent ? Sell the News”
A stimulus package before the Nov. 3 election ?   I think it makes sense, something around $1.85 trillion.   A lot of hurting people hope so. That would be close to the $2.2 trillion  the Democratic U.S. House passed earlier in the month, down from an original proposal of $3.4 trillion.
It would do two thingsHelp hurting people, for one, remind us the economy is still in a bad place.
What about the stock market which so far has gotten a free pass on all the misery COVID-19 has meted out ?  I have experienced every bear and bull since 1960 and have never seen a stock market ignore economic adversity on  this scale.
Part of that is the construction of our market averages/indexes which enable high priced and monster market value stocks to dominate the market, while the struggling of smaller companies goes undetected.
IMHO, it is the reliance on algorithms (algos) to call the shots.
Why would algos ignore economic adversity on this scale and contribute to an overvalued stock market  ?  Because, they can’t be programmed to factor in the  inept, misplaced and incompetent running of our government, an unstable president who has razed the rule of law, failed to address COVID’s rampage, and seriously divided our country.
When will the stock market reflect this damage ? It did in a 21-day, 35% rout of the stock market in February/March, but the algos were buying giving us a market that is more overvalued than before COVOD hit.
BOTTOM LINE:
      The fish are running. For some it is safe to toss in a line. For others, have a cash reserve in line with your tolerance for risk.

………………………………………………………………………………….

Resistance:  DJIA: 28,717; SPX:3,496 ; COMP:11,727 ; QQQ: 290.6
Support: DJIA: 28,630;  S&P 500:3,487 ; Nasdaq:11,667; QQQ: 289
………………………………………………………………………………….
I would like to try the following for the above stocks.
The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – . Changes in broker ratings and earnings reports/projections add to the difficulty. Technical-only estimates of short-term price ranges are:
FB:
268-264; AMZN: 3,315 – 3,246; AAPL:119.8 – 117.8; NFLX: 537- 531; GOOG: 1,580-1,568; TSLA: 447-443; MSFT: 221-219.
Not sure this can work in this crazy environment, this is one of the most difficult tasks to perform accurately.
Obviously, a flash crash out of nowhere negates any estimates
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Thursday  October 15, 2020 (DJIA:28,513) “Recession Over ? Depends on Who You Ask – Flash Crash Before Election? Good Bet”
Is the recession that started in February over ?

Depends on who you ask.
If you ask Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida you would get a strong “maybe.” If you ask the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official scorekeeper, you’ll get a “We’ll let you know when we have waded through a host of economic date, and that could be in a day or two, on not for months !”
If you ask most struggling Americans, you’ll get a snarl.
Clarida told attendees at the Institute for International Finance conference yesterday, “This recession was by far the deepest in postwar history, but it also may go into the record books as the briefest recession in U.S. history.”
The shortest on record going back to 1857 was a 6 monther (January-July 1980), so I doubt it.
Historically, the NBER takes its time marking  the beginning and end of recessions, since its analysis encompasses a host of data.
       If you ask me, I would say the Administration is currently twisting arms, legs, and  whatever to get a declaration from the NBER before November 3.  They may take Fed Vice Chair Clarida’s quote anyhow and run with it at the Town Hall tonight.
If in fact the recession is over, why would Congress be considering another  stimulus ?
If this was not a presidential election year, would any of this be happening ?
Odds are against it, but I think they will agree  to a $1.85 trillion stimulus.
BOTTOM LINE:
     This is a phony economy: without all the Fed and Congressional  stimulus to-date, we’d be in a depression.
This is a phony stock market: vastly overpriced propped by brainless algos, which will betray their programmers any day.
This is a phony Administration: Lies, untethered divisiveness, Un-American attempt to undermine our democratic representative constitutional republic that hundreds of thousands of real Americans gave life and limb to defend.
At some point, we will pay a dear price for this behavior at the top. This may be the first time ever that there has been a stock market that has hit new all-time highs while the vast number of Americans are suffering, economically, physically, and socially.  It will adjust downward, and that downward will be devastating. 
With the prospect of a post-stimulus slump in the economy, any declaration of an end to the recession would be premature, but stranger things have happened over the last four years.
The stock market has sizzled while the economy fizzled. There is something very dangerous about that.
What if the stock market suddenly adjusted to levels that have reflected all that is happening ?
ANSWER: Flash Crash
BEWARE: The three amigos (the Fed, the Administration, and the Street) will hype the market with as much BS as they can drag out going into the election. This will trigger brief rallies that will be dangerous to chase.
………………………………………………………………………………….

Resistance:  DJIA: 28,725; SPX: 3,521; COMP: 11901; QQQ: 295.50
Support: DJIA: 28,110;  S&P 500: 3,450; Nasdaq:11,630; QQQ: 292-286
………………………………………………………………………………….
Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/12
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     272
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,363
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      121
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      541
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:  1,568
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      461
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:      220
…………………………………………………………………………………..
I would like to try the following for the above stocks.
The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – . Changes in broker ratings and earnings reports/projections add to the difficulty. Technical-only estimates of short-term price ranges are:
FB:
272-266; AMZN: 3,363 – 3,298; AAPL:121-120; NFLX: 541- 527; GOOG: 1,568-1,540; TSLA: 461-437; MSFT: 220-217.
Obviously, a flash crash out of nowhere negates any estimates.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Wednesday  October 15, 2020 (DJIA: 28,679) “Tie Game – Bulls and Bears”
Q3 earnings will hit the Street in coming weeks. With so many companies reluctant to provide guidance, there will be some surprises in both directions.
Generally S&P 500 companies are expected to log in losses on average of as much as 15%
But who knows what magic the crafters of the bottom lines can come up with ?
It can be a hazardous venture for anyone buying before an earnings report, worse yet, are analysts  revisions for the next quarter along with those deadly downgrades.
      Analyst ratings include: Strong Buy, Buy, outperform, overweight, Accumulate Neutral, Market Perform, Market Underperform, Underweight and more.
Just a seemingly minor downgrade can hammer a stock, like Buy from Strong Buy.     With so much uncertainty and potential for  surprises, ratings changes will increase, hazardous for holders of stocks as well as short sellers
BOTTOM LINE:
We could be tracing out a major double top September 3rd and now.  We  are experiencing an economic rebound from the extreme lows posted in March and April.  The key is follow through.  Can the rebound get legs, or has too much internal damage  been done ? Too early to tell.
As noted repeatedly, the S&P 500 is historically very overvalued. Its Price to Sales ratio  is out of sight relative to the past.  The same for its Price to Earnings ratio/
       At some point, the market must adjust to reality, a level that discounts known and perceived positives and negatives. Odds indicate that would be lower, but the “fever” on the Street is running hot, and it will take a major break in ranks by institutions to send the market down. That can happen at any moment.  Investors are sitting on major gains, which must be locked in at some point….before the market plunges.

………………………………………………………………………………….

Resistance:  DJIA: 28,725; SPX: 3,521; COMP: 11901; QQQ: 295.50
………………………………………………………………………………….
Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/12
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     276
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,443
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      121
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      544
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:  1,571
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      446
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:      223
Key near-term resistance: The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – down one day on news, up the next. It looks like we are seeing short covering in the techs, new buying risky. RESISTANCE STARTS: FB:279; AMZN:3,379; AAPL: 123*; NFLX: 571*; GOOG: 1,595*; TSLA: 454; MSFT: 230 * Update
Note: GOOG and NFLX are showing bids above Tuesday’s close.   >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                          
George Brooks
Investor’s first read.com
brooksie01@aol.com
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

Stimulus Passage to Trigger Brief Rally and Selling Opportunity – Message: Economy in Big Trouble

INVESTOR’S first read.com – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 28,308
S&P 500: 3,443
Nasdaq Comp.:11,516
Russell: 1,617
Wednesday October 21, 2020    8:51 a.m.
……………………………………..
brooksie01@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

November 15, 2019 (DJIA – 28,004)   I Called for a bear market to start in January, that the initial plunge would be 12%-18% – “straight down.” It started mid-February, dropped 16.3%, rallied then  plunged another 32.8%.
…………………………………………………..
January 20, 2020 (DJIA:29,348) My blog,  “INSANITY,” projected a bear market decline of  30% – 45%. The DJIA plunged 38.4% in 21 days.
………………………………………………….
With the DJIA at 18,591on March 24, I wrote that , while I see lower prices later in the year, I expect a big rally with the upside potential of DJIA 22,037 (S&P 500 : 2,617) – it went higher.
With the DJIA at 23,942 (S&P 500) on April 15, I
called for  an end to  rally, up 29% but well short of  today.   how far the rally extended.  On May 18, I began to warn of  Bubble #2
August 6, I headline “SELL” with DJIA at 27,201 (S&P 500:3,327). Another “Fed” bubble.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    I still think a stimulus is going to happen, about $1.85 trillion.
If so, the message is the economy is in trouble, that the big bounce since Q1 and Q2, is just that – a bounce.
That bounce is ALL STIMULUS, without which it would be a Depression.  So, what is going to prop it up going forward with the third spike in COVID-19 surging out of control, as we enter the Flu season ?
It means the bounce runs out of steam and an overvalued stock market becomes more reasonably valued as prices plunge.
Nowhere else to put one’s money ?  That didn’t look so smart when the market Was down 35% in in 21 days in March.
The Fed and Congress stepped in to bail out the economy and stock market  (in a presidential election year), and that cannot be expected  this time around.
Q2 earnings
are hitting the Street at a time a lot of Americans are hoping for the passage of another stimulus package. And of course, there is the election.
I sense, the Street believes in a “V”– shaped economic recovery. If so, why is there so much selling on strength ? Four out of the last five days have given up nice gains (rally failures).
Yesterday, I called attention to a double top  formation with the first  top coming on September 2 and the second top on October 2.  A broader double top formed on February 12 and September 2.
Generally, there has been enough selling to turn the market down  around DJIA 29,000 and S&P 500 3,433.
     This suggests a tiring market with the potential of a sharp decline to more realistic levels. Wrong so far ?
Yep.
All I care about is that readers protect themselves from another flash crash by  having a cash reserve in line with their tolerance for risk.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Resistance:  DJIA: 29,430; SPX:3,467 ; COMP:11,587 ; QQQ: 286
Support: DJIA: 28,167;  S&P 500:3,402 ; Nasdaq:11,407; QQQ: 275
Note: News of a failure to reach a bill would hammer stocks.
………………………………………………………………………………….
I would like to try the following for the above stocks.
The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – . Changes in broker ratings and earnings reports/projections add to the difficulty. Technical-only estimates of short-term price ranges are:
FB:
277-267; AMZN: 3,227 – 3,067; AAPL:118.5 – 117; NFLX: 526- 501; GOOG: 1,563-1,546; TSLA: 437-403; MSFT: 216-211.
 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

RECENT POSTS:
Tuesday  October 20, 2020 (DJIA: 28.195) “ Double Top Sets Up Big Crunch. Sell Stimulus Bill News”
I have criticized the “Fed” for creating Bubble #1
(January 2019 – February 2020), which COVID pricked leading to a 21-day 35% freefall in stock prices.  Fed Bubble #2 reversed that plunge sending all but the DJIA to new all-time highs.
I believe in free trading of stocks without Fed interference. I have never believed they understood market action, the flow of stock prices up and down in response to known and perceived  economic, social, international, fundamental, and economic conditions.
The Fed “PUT” is a term used to refer to Wall Street’s belief that the Fed will bail out the market if it tumbles too much with cuts in interest rates and bombarding the economy with money.
Federal Reserve Board members Brainard, Rosengren and Kashkari think it is time to  shelve the Fed PUT and that may be what will trigger a revision in the Street’s algos that have driven the market’s relentless surge in recent years at a time global economies are crumbling.
    Currently, the Street’s algos are not programmed to factor in a seriously divided country, the potential for major social unrest and the third surge in COVID during flu season and a double-dip in the economic recovery.
If the Street has to pull the Fed PUT from its algos, the markets will have to find a level that is far less overvalued, and that will be lower, a lot lower.
………………………………………………………………………………….
BOTTOM LINE:
I still believe we will get another  stimulus, this one coming in at $1.85 trillion. An announcement of a tentative  agreement would come before the open tomorrow and would  temporarily pop the market, providing investors with a chance to lighten up on the news.
We should know whether a stimulus is a “GO” or “Non GO” today.
THE STREET EXPECTS A BILL. ANY INDICATION THAT IT WON’T HAPPEN WILL HAMMER STOCKS.
     It looks like a Double Top has formed in the market, with the first top coming on September 2 and the second on October 2.   A broader double top has formed  between February 12 and September 3.
That is a warning signal ! The message is, there are sellers at these levels, generally DJIA 29,000 and S&P 500: 3,550. The Nasdaq Comp. ran well beyond February’s peak but has traced out a double top around 12,000.
………………………………………………………………………………….

Resistance:  DJIA: 29,430; SPX:3,457 ; COMP:11,587 ; QQQ: 286.3
Support: DJIA: 28,251;  S&P 500:3,433 ; Nasdaq:11,510; QQQ: 284
Note: I am assuming the Street expects another stimulus bill and will gap stocks at the open, which explains my higher supports.  News of a failure to reach a bill would hammer stocks.
………………………………………………………………………………….
I would like to try the following for the above stocks.
The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – . Changes in broker ratings and earnings reports/projections add to the difficulty. Technical-only estimates of short-term price ranges are:
FB:
264-261; AMZN: 3,237 – 3,215; AAPL:118 – 116; NFLX: 537- 533; GOOG: 1,530-1,507; TSLA: 433-417; MSFT: 216-213.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Monday  October 19, 2020 (DJIA: 28,606) “Stimulus Deal Imminent ? Sell the News”
A stimulus package before the Nov. 3 election ?   I think it makes sense, something around $1.85 trillion.   A lot of hurting people hope so. That would be close to the $2.2 trillion  the Democratic U.S. House passed earlier in the month, down from an original proposal of $3.4 trillion.
It would do two thingsHelp hurting people, for one, remind us the economy is still in a bad place.
What about the stock market which so far has gotten a free pass on all the misery COVID-19 has meted out ?  I have experienced every bear and bull since 1960 and have never seen a stock market ignore economic adversity on  this scale.
Part of that is the construction of our market averages/indexes which enable high priced and monster market value stocks to dominate the market, while the struggling of smaller companies goes undetected.
IMHO, it is the reliance on algorithms (algos) to call the shots.
Why would algos ignore economic adversity on this scale and contribute to an overvalued stock market  ?  Because, they can’t be programmed to factor in the  inept, misplaced and incompetent running of our government, an unstable president who has razed the rule of law, failed to address COVID’s rampage, and seriously divided our country.
When will the stock market reflect this damage ? It did in a 21-day, 35% rout of the stock market in February/March, but the algos were buying giving us a market that is more overvalued than before COVOD hit.
BOTTOM LINE:
      The fish are running. For some it is safe to toss in a line. For others, have a cash reserve in line with your tolerance for risk.

………………………………………………………………………………….

Resistance:  DJIA: 28,717; SPX:3,496 ; COMP:11,727 ; QQQ: 290.6
Support: DJIA: 28,630;  S&P 500:3,487 ; Nasdaq:11,667; QQQ: 289
………………………………………………………………………………….
I would like to try the following for the above stocks.
The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – . Changes in broker ratings and earnings reports/projections add to the difficulty. Technical-only estimates of short-term price ranges are:
FB:
268-264; AMZN: 3,315 – 3,246; AAPL:119.8 – 117.8; NFLX: 537- 531; GOOG: 1,580-1,568; TSLA: 447-443; MSFT: 221-219.
Not sure this can work in this crazy environment, this is one of the most difficult tasks to perform accurately.
Obviously, a flash crash out of nowhere negates any estimates
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Thursday  October 15, 2020 (DJIA:28,513) “Recession Over ? Depends on Who You Ask – Flash Crash Before Election? Good Bet”
Is the recession that started in February over ?

Depends on who you ask.
If you ask Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida you would get a strong “maybe.” If you ask the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official scorekeeper, you’ll get a “We’ll let you know when we have waded through a host of economic date, and that could be in a day or two, on not for months !”
If you ask most struggling Americans, you’ll get a snarl.
Clarida told attendees at the Institute for International Finance conference yesterday, “This recession was by far the deepest in postwar history, but it also may go into the record books as the briefest recession in U.S. history.”
The shortest on record going back to 1857 was a 6 monther (January-July 1980), so I doubt it.
Historically, the NBER takes its time marking  the beginning and end of recessions, since its analysis encompasses a host of data.
       If you ask me, I would say the Administration is currently twisting arms, legs, and  whatever to get a declaration from the NBER before November 3.  They may take Fed Vice Chair Clarida’s quote anyhow and run with it at the Town Hall tonight.
If in fact the recession is over, why would Congress be considering another  stimulus ?
If this was not a presidential election year, would any of this be happening ?
Odds are against it, but I think they will agree  to a $1.85 trillion stimulus.
BOTTOM LINE:
     This is a phony economy: without all the Fed and Congressional  stimulus to-date, we’d be in a depression.
This is a phony stock market: vastly overpriced propped by brainless algos, which will betray their programmers any day.
This is a phony Administration: Lies, untethered divisiveness, Un-American attempt to undermine our democratic representative constitutional republic that hundreds of thousands of real Americans gave life and limb to defend.
At some point, we will pay a dear price for this behavior at the top. This may be the first time ever that there has been a stock market that has hit new all-time highs while the vast number of Americans are suffering, economically, physically, and socially.  It will adjust downward, and that downward will be devastating. 
With the prospect of a post-stimulus slump in the economy, any declaration of an end to the recession would be premature, but stranger things have happened over the last four years.
The stock market has sizzled while the economy fizzled. There is something very dangerous about that.
What if the stock market suddenly adjusted to levels that have reflected all that is happening ?
ANSWER: Flash Crash
BEWARE: The three amigos (the Fed, the Administration, and the Street) will hype the market with as much BS as they can drag out going into the election. This will trigger brief rallies that will be dangerous to chase.
………………………………………………………………………………….

Resistance:  DJIA: 28,725; SPX: 3,521; COMP: 11901; QQQ: 295.50
Support: DJIA: 28,110;  S&P 500: 3,450; Nasdaq:11,630; QQQ: 292-286
………………………………………………………………………………….
Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/12
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     272
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,363
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      121
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      541
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:  1,568
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      461
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:      220
…………………………………………………………………………………..
I would like to try the following for the above stocks.
The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – . Changes in broker ratings and earnings reports/projections add to the difficulty. Technical-only estimates of short-term price ranges are:
FB:
272-266; AMZN: 3,363 – 3,298; AAPL:121-120; NFLX: 541- 527; GOOG: 1,568-1,540; TSLA: 461-437; MSFT: 220-217.
Obviously, a flash crash out of nowhere negates any estimates.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Wednesday  October 15, 2020 (DJIA: 28,679) “Tie Game – Bulls and Bears”
Q3 earnings will hit the Street in coming weeks. With so many companies reluctant to provide guidance, there will be some surprises in both directions.
Generally S&P 500 companies are expected to log in losses on average of as much as 15%
But who knows what magic the crafters of the bottom lines can come up with ?
It can be a hazardous venture for anyone buying before an earnings report, worse yet, are analysts  revisions for the next quarter along with those deadly downgrades.
      Analyst ratings include: Strong Buy, Buy, outperform, overweight, Accumulate Neutral, Market Perform, Market Underperform, Underweight and more.
Just a seemingly minor downgrade can hammer a stock, like Buy from Strong Buy.     With so much uncertainty and potential for  surprises, ratings changes will increase, hazardous for holders of stocks as well as short sellers
BOTTOM LINE:
We could be tracing out a major double top September 3rd and now.  We  are experiencing an economic rebound from the extreme lows posted in March and April.  The key is follow through.  Can the rebound get legs, or has too much internal damage  been done ? Too early to tell.
As noted repeatedly, the S&P 500 is historically very overvalued. Its Price to Sales ratio  is out of sight relative to the past.  The same for its Price to Earnings ratio/
       At some point, the market must adjust to reality, a level that discounts known and perceived positives and negatives. Odds indicate that would be lower, but the “fever” on the Street is running hot, and it will take a major break in ranks by institutions to send the market down. That can happen at any moment.  Investors are sitting on major gains, which must be locked in at some point….before the market plunges.

………………………………………………………………………………….

Resistance:  DJIA: 28,725; SPX: 3,521; COMP: 11901; QQQ: 295.50
………………………………………………………………………………….
Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/12
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     276
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,443
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      121
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      544
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:  1,571
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      446
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:      223
Key near-term resistance: The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – down one day on news, up the next. It looks like we are seeing short covering in the techs, new buying risky. RESISTANCE STARTS: FB:279; AMZN:3,379; AAPL: 123*; NFLX: 571*; GOOG: 1,595*; TSLA: 454; MSFT: 230 * Update
Note: GOOG and NFLX are showing bids above Tuesday’s close.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Tuesday October 14, 2020 (DJIA: 28,679) “Big Blow-Off Techs – Q3 Earnings Loom”
Shortly, Q3 earnings will hit the Street with tech stocks looking better, but the S&P 500 logging in a loss of 15% or worse.  That could explain the surge in tech stocks yesterday.
The gap open is indicative of panicked short covering .
If the S&P 500 was overvalued before COVID-19 struck, how overvalued is it now that corporate earnings are lower and the economy needs yet another stimulus package to survive ?
Economically, we are experiencing a sharp rebound from severely depressed economic conditions in Q1 and Q2.  The Street is expecting the rebound to continue, however 30 million Americans are still out of work, businesses are still closing, and COVID is on a tear in 29 states as we enter the Flu season.
Without unprecedented Fed and government stimulation packages, we would be in a depression.
Two different methods of calculating the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 indicate the S&P is anywhere from 42% (FactSet) tom 90% (Shiller) overvalued compared to  a 10-yeararithmetic mean.
Let’s toss out the Shiller P/E and we are still seriously overvalued.
Why ?  I blame the buy-biased algorithms used by many institutions  to value the stock market.
As noted yesterday when I quoted Goldman’s Amy Joseph Cohen  who is warning of significant downside risk. She agrees that many of the variables faced today “can’t fit into our models.”
      If this is true for most of the Street’s models (algos), the market is extremely vulnerable in light of the overvaluation reflected in the S&P 500’s P/Es.
BOTTOM LINE:
Yesterday’s headline here was, “Short Squeeze in Techs- Potential for Plunge Rises.”  I called the market’s action a “second and final top,” a “death knell” for the rebound since March as uncertainty about chaos in the election process on top of a dysfunctional administration weigh-in on investor confidence.
That, I noted,  would chop the market off at the knees.
Already we are seeing problems for voters. Technical problems caused voters hours of waiting in Atlanta. This will get ugly.
………………………………………………………………………………….

Resistance:  DJIA: 28,895; SPX: 3,540; COMP: 12,000; QQQ: 301
………………………………………………………………………………….
Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/12
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     275
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,442
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      124
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      540
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:  1,569
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      442
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:      221
Key near-term resistance: The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – down one day on news, up the next. It looks like we are seeing short covering in the techs, new buying risky. RESISTANCE STARTS: FB:279; AMZN:3,379*; AAPL: 131; NFLX: 547; GOOG: 1,583*; TSLA: 454*; MSFT: 225        * Update
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                          
George Brooks
Investor’s first read.com
brooksie01@aol.com
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Double Top Sets Up Big Crunch. Sell Stimulus Bill News

INVESTOR’S first read.com – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 28,195
S&P 500: 3,426
Nasdaq Comp.:11,478
Russell: 1,613
Tuesday October 20, 2020    9:05 a.m.
……………………………………..
brooksie01@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

November 15, 2019 (DJIA – 28,004)   I Called for a bear market to start in January, that the initial plunge would be 12%-18% – “straight down.” It started mid-February, dropped 16.3%, rallied then  plunged another 32.8%.
…………………………………………………..
January 20, 2020 (DJIA:29,348) My blog,  “INSANITY,” projected a bear market decline of  30% – 45%. The DJIA plunged 38.4% in 21 days.
………………………………………………….
With the DJIA at 18,591on March 24, I wrote that , while I see lower prices later in the year, I expect a big rally with the upside potential of DJIA 22,037 (S&P 500 : 2,617) – it went higher.
With the DJIA at 23,942 (S&P 500) on April 15, I
called for  an end to  rally, up 29% but well short of  today.   how far the rally extended.  On May 18, I began to warn of  Bubble #2
August 6, I headline “SELL” with DJIA at 27,201 (S&P 500:3,327). Another “Fed” bubble.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I have criticized the “Fed” for creating Bubble #1 (January 2019 – February 2020), which COVID pricked leading to a 21-day 35% freefall in stock prices.  Fed Bubble #2 reversed that plunge sending all but the DJIA to new all-time highs.
I believe in free trading of stocks without Fed interference. I have never believed they understood market action, the flow of stock prices up and down in response to known and perceived  economic, social, international, fundamental, and economic conditions.
The Fed “PUT” is a term used to refer to Wall Street’s belief that the Fed will bail out the market if it tumbles too much with cuts in interest rates and bombarding the economy with money.
Federal Reserve Board members Brainard, Rosengren and Kashkari think it is time to  shelve the Fed PUT and that may be what will trigger a revision in the Street’s algos that have driven the market’s relentless surge in recent years at a time global economies are crumbling.
    Currently, the Street’s algos are not programmed to factor in a seriously divided country, the potential for major social unrest and the third surge in COVID during flu season and a double-dip in the economic recovery.
If the Street has to pull the Fed PUT from its algos, the markets will have to find a level that is far less overvalued, and that will be lower, a lot lower.
………………………………………………………………………………….
BOTTOM LINE:
I still believe we will get another  stimulus, this one coming in at $1.85 trillion. An announcement of a tentative  agreement would come before the open tomorrow and would  temporarily pop the market, providing investors with a chance to lighten up on the news.
We should know whether a stimulus is a “GO” or “Non GO” today.
THE STREET EXPECTS A BILL. ANY INDICATION THAT IT WON’T HAPPEN WILL HAMMER STOCKS.
     It looks like a Double Top has formed in the market, with the first top coming on September 2 and the second on October 2.   A broader double top has formed  between February 12 and September 3.
That is a warning signal ! The message is, there are sellers at these levels, generally DJIA 29,000 and S&P 500: 3,550. The Nasdaq Comp. ran well beyond February’s peak but has traced out a double top around 12,000.
………………………………………………………………………………….

Resistance:  DJIA: 29,430; SPX:3,457 ; COMP:11,587 ; QQQ: 286.3
Support: DJIA: 28,251;  S&P 500:3,433 ; Nasdaq:11,510; QQQ: 284
Note: I am assuming the Street expects another stimulus bill and will gap stocks at the open, which explains my higher supports.  News of a failure to reach a bill would hammer stocks.
………………………………………………………………………………….
I would like to try the following for the above stocks.
The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – . Changes in broker ratings and earnings reports/projections add to the difficulty. Technical-only estimates of short-term price ranges are:
FB:
264-261; AMZN: 3,237 – 3,215; AAPL:118 – 116; NFLX: 537- 533; GOOG: 1,530-1,507; TSLA: 433-417; MSFT: 216-213.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
RECENT POSTS:
Monday  October 19, 2020 “Stimulus Deal Imminent ? Sell the News”
A stimulus package before the Nov. 3 election ?   I think it makes sense, something around $1.85 trillion.   A lot of hurting people hope so. That would be close to the $2.2 trillion  the Democratic U.S. House passed earlier in the month, down from an original proposal of $3.4 trillion.
It would do two thingsHelp hurting people, for one, remind us the economy is still in a bad place.
What about the stock market which so far has gotten a free pass on all the misery COVID-19 has meted out ?  I have experienced every bear and bull since 1960 and have never seen a stock market ignore economic adversity on  this scale.
Part of that is the construction of our market averages/indexes which enable high priced and monster market value stocks to dominate the market, while the struggling of smaller companies goes undetected.
IMHO, it is the reliance on algorithms (algos) to call the shots.
Why would algos ignore economic adversity on this scale and contribute to an overvalued stock market  ?  Because, they can’t be programmed to factor in the  inept, misplaced and incompetent running of our government, an unstable president who has razed the rule of law, failed to address COVID’s rampage, and seriously divided our country.
When will the stock market reflect this damage ? It did in a 21-day, 35% rout of the stock market in February/March, but the algos were buying giving us a market that is more overvalued than before COVOD hit.
BOTTOM LINE:
      The fish are running. For some it is safe to toss in a line. For others, have a cash reserve in line with your tolerance for risk.

………………………………………………………………………………….

Resistance:  DJIA: 28,717; SPX:3,496 ; COMP:11,727 ; QQQ: 290.6
Support: DJIA: 28,630;  S&P 500:3,487 ; Nasdaq:11,667; QQQ: 289
………………………………………………………………………………….
I would like to try the following for the above stocks.
The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – . Changes in broker ratings and earnings reports/projections add to the difficulty. Technical-only estimates of short-term price ranges are:
FB:
268-264; AMZN: 3,315 – 3,246; AAPL:119.8 – 117.8; NFLX: 537- 531; GOOG: 1,580-1,568; TSLA: 447-443; MSFT: 221-219.
Not sure this can work in this crazy environment, this is one of the most difficult tasks to perform accurately.
Obviously, a flash crash out of nowhere negates any estimates
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Thursday  October 15, 2020 (DJIA:28,513) “Recession Over ? Depends on Who You Ask – Flash Crash Before Election? Good Bet”
Is the recession that started in February over ?

Depends on who you ask.
If you ask Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida you would get a strong “maybe.” If you ask the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official scorekeeper, you’ll get a “We’ll let you know when we have waded through a host of economic date, and that could be in a day or two, on not for months !”
If you ask most struggling Americans, you’ll get a snarl.
Clarida told attendees at the Institute for International Finance conference yesterday, “This recession was by far the deepest in postwar history, but it also may go into the record books as the briefest recession in U.S. history.”
The shortest on record going back to 1857 was a 6 monther (January-July 1980), so I doubt it.
Historically, the NBER takes its time marking  the beginning and end of recessions, since its analysis encompasses a host of data.
       If you ask me, I would say the Administration is currently twisting arms, legs, and  whatever to get a declaration from the NBER before November 3.  They may take Fed Vice Chair Clarida’s quote anyhow and run with it at the Town Hall tonight.
If in fact the recession is over, why would Congress be considering another  stimulus ?
If this was not a presidential election year, would any of this be happening ?
Odds are against it, but I think they will agree  to a $1.85 trillion stimulus.
BOTTOM LINE:
     This is a phony economy: without all the Fed and Congressional  stimulus to-date, we’d be in a depression.
This is a phony stock market: vastly overpriced propped by brainless algos, which will betray their programmers any day.
This is a phony Administration: Lies, untethered divisiveness, Un-American attempt to undermine our democratic representative constitutional republic that hundreds of thousands of real Americans gave life and limb to defend.
At some point, we will pay a dear price for this behavior at the top. This may be the first time ever that there has been a stock market that has hit new all-time highs while the vast number of Americans are suffering, economically, physically, and socially.  It will adjust downward, and that downward will be devastating. 
With the prospect of a post-stimulus slump in the economy, any declaration of an end to the recession would be premature, but stranger things have happened over the last four years.
The stock market has sizzled while the economy fizzled. There is something very dangerous about that.
What if the stock market suddenly adjusted to levels that have reflected all that is happening ?
ANSWER: Flash Crash
BEWARE: The three amigos (the Fed, the Administration, and the Street) will hype the market with as much BS as they can drag out going into the election. This will trigger brief rallies that will be dangerous to chase.
………………………………………………………………………………….

Resistance:  DJIA: 28,725; SPX: 3,521; COMP: 11901; QQQ: 295.50
Support: DJIA: 28,110;  S&P 500: 3,450; Nasdaq:11,630; QQQ: 292-286
………………………………………………………………………………….
Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/12
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     272
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,363
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      121
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      541
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:  1,568
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      461
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:      220
…………………………………………………………………………………..
I would like to try the following for the above stocks.
The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – . Changes in broker ratings and earnings reports/projections add to the difficulty. Technical-only estimates of short-term price ranges are:
FB:
272-266; AMZN: 3,363 – 3,298; AAPL:121-120; NFLX: 541- 527; GOOG: 1,568-1,540; TSLA: 461-437; MSFT: 220-217.
Obviously, a flash crash out of nowhere negates any estimates.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Wednesday  October 15, 2020 (DJIA: 28,679) “Tie Game – Bulls and Bears”
Q3 earnings will hit the Street in coming weeks. With so many companies reluctant to provide guidance, there will be some surprises in both directions.
Generally S&P 500 companies are expected to log in losses on average of as much as 15%
But who knows what magic the crafters of the bottom lines can come up with ?
It can be a hazardous venture for anyone buying before an earnings report, worse yet, are analysts  revisions for the next quarter along with those deadly downgrades.
      Analyst ratings include: Strong Buy, Buy, outperform, overweight, Accumulate Neutral, Market Perform, Market Underperform, Underweight and more.
Just a seemingly minor downgrade can hammer a stock, like Buy from Strong Buy.     With so much uncertainty and potential for  surprises, ratings changes will increase, hazardous for holders of stocks as well as short sellers
BOTTOM LINE:
We could be tracing out a major double top September 3rd and now.  We  are experiencing an economic rebound from the extreme lows posted in March and April.  The key is follow through.  Can the rebound get legs, or has too much internal damage  been done ? Too early to tell.
As noted repeatedly, the S&P 500 is historically very overvalued. Its Price to Sales ratio  is out of sight relative to the past.  The same for its Price to Earnings ratio/
       At some point, the market must adjust to reality, a level that discounts known and perceived positives and negatives. Odds indicate that would be lower, but the “fever” on the Street is running hot, and it will take a major break in ranks by institutions to send the market down. That can happen at any moment.  Investors are sitting on major gains, which must be locked in at some point….before the market plunges.

………………………………………………………………………………….

Resistance:  DJIA: 28,725; SPX: 3,521; COMP: 11901; QQQ: 295.50
………………………………………………………………………………….
Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/12
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     276
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,443
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      121
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      544
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:  1,571
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      446
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:      223
Key near-term resistance: The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – down one day on news, up the next. It looks like we are seeing short covering in the techs, new buying risky. RESISTANCE STARTS: FB:279; AMZN:3,379; AAPL: 123*; NFLX: 571*; GOOG: 1,595*; TSLA: 454; MSFT: 230 * Update
Note: GOOG and NFLX are showing bids above Tuesday’s close.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Tuesday October 14, 2020 (DJIA: 28,679) “Big Blow-Off Techs – Q3 Earnings Loom”
Shortly, Q3 earnings will hit the Street with tech stocks looking better, but the S&P 500 logging in a loss of 15% or worse.  That could explain the surge in tech stocks yesterday.
The gap open is indicative of panicked short covering .
If the S&P 500 was overvalued before COVID-19 struck, how overvalued is it now that corporate earnings are lower and the economy needs yet another stimulus package to survive ?
Economically, we are experiencing a sharp rebound from severely depressed economic conditions in Q1 and Q2.  The Street is expecting the rebound to continue, however 30 million Americans are still out of work, businesses are still closing, and COVID is on a tear in 29 states as we enter the Flu season.
Without unprecedented Fed and government stimulation packages, we would be in a depression.
Two different methods of calculating the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 indicate the S&P is anywhere from 42% (FactSet) tom 90% (Shiller) overvalued compared to  a 10-yeararithmetic mean.
Let’s toss out the Shiller P/E and we are still seriously overvalued.
Why ?  I blame the buy-biased algorithms used by many institutions  to value the stock market.
As noted yesterday when I quoted Goldman’s Amy Joseph Cohen  who is warning of significant downside risk. She agrees that many of the variables faced today “can’t fit into our models.”
      If this is true for most of the Street’s models (algos), the market is extremely vulnerable in light of the overvaluation reflected in the S&P 500’s P/Es.
BOTTOM LINE:
Yesterday’s headline here was, “Short Squeeze in Techs- Potential for Plunge Rises.”  I called the market’s action a “second and final top,” a “death knell” for the rebound since March as uncertainty about chaos in the election process on top of a dysfunctional administration weigh-in on investor confidence.
That, I noted,  would chop the market off at the knees.
Already we are seeing problems for voters. Technical problems caused voters hours of waiting in Atlanta. This will get ugly.
………………………………………………………………………………….

Resistance:  DJIA: 28,895; SPX: 3,540; COMP: 12,000; QQQ: 301
………………………………………………………………………………….
Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/12
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     275
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,442
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      124
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      540
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:  1,569
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      442
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:      221
Key near-term resistance: The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – down one day on news, up the next. It looks like we are seeing short covering in the techs, new buying risky. RESISTANCE STARTS: FB:279; AMZN:3,379*; AAPL: 131; NFLX: 547; GOOG: 1,583*; TSLA: 454*; MSFT: 225        * Update
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                          
George Brooks
Investor’s first read.com
brooksie01@aol.com
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stimulus Deal Imminent ? Sell the News

INVESTOR’S first read.com – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 28,606
S&P 500: 3,483
Nasdaq Comp.:11,671
Russell: 1,634
Monday October 19, 2020    8:50 a.m.
……………………………………..
brooksie01@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

November 15, 2019 (DJIA – 28,004)   I Called for a bear market to start in January, that the initial plunge would be 12%-18% – “straight down.” It started mid-February, dropped 16.3%, rallied then  plunged another 32.8%.
…………………………………………………..
January 20, 2020 (DJIA:29,348) My blog,  “INSANITY,” projected a bear market decline of  30% – 45%. The DJIA plunged 38.4% in 21 days.
………………………………………………….
With the DJIA at 18,591on March 24, I wrote that , while I see lower prices later in the year, I expect a big rally with the upside potential of DJIA 22,037 (S&P 500 : 2,617) – it went higher.
With the DJIA at 23,942 (S&P 500) on April 15, I
called for  an end to  rally, up 29% but well short of  today.   how far the rally extended.  On May 18, I began to warn of  Bubble #2
August 6, I headline “SELL” with DJIA at 27,201 (S&P 500:3,327). Another “Fed” bubble.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
A stimulus package before the Nov. 3 election ?   I think it makes sense, something around $1.85 trillion.   A lot of hurting people hope so. That would be close to the $2.2 trillion  the Democratic U.S. House passed earlier in the month, down from an original proposal of $3.4 trillion.
It would do two thingsHelp hurting people, for one, remind us the economy is still in a bad place.
What about the stock market which so far has gotten a free pass on all the misery COVID-19 has meted out ?  I have experienced every bear and bull since 1960 and have never seen a stock market ignore economic adversity on  this scale.
Part of that is the construction of our market averages/indexes which enable high priced and monster market value stocks to dominate the market, while the struggling of smaller companies goes undetected.
IMHO, it is the reliance on algorithms (algos) to call the shots.
Why would algos ignore economic adversity on this scale and contribute to an overvalued stock market  ?  Because, they can’t be programmed to factor in the  inept, misplaced and incompetent running of our government, an unstable president who has razed the rule of law, failed to address COVID’s rampage, and seriously divided our country.
When will the stock market reflect this damage ? It did in a 21-day, 35% rout of the stock market in February/March, but the algos were buying giving us a market that is more overvalued than before COVOD hit.
BOTTOM LINE:
      The fish are running. For some it is safe to toss in a line. For others, have a cash reserve in line with your tolerance for risk.

………………………………………………………………………………….

Resistance:  DJIA: 28,717; SPX:3,496 ; COMP:11,727 ; QQQ: 290.6
Support: DJIA: 28,630;  S&P 500:3,487 ; Nasdaq:11,667; QQQ: 289
………………………………………………………………………………….
I would like to try the following for the above stocks.
The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – . Changes in broker ratings and earnings reports/projections add to the difficulty. Technical-only estimates of short-term price ranges are:
FB:
268-264; AMZN: 3,315 – 3,246; AAPL:119.8 – 117.8; NFLX: 537- 531; GOOG: 1,580-1,568; TSLA: 447-443; MSFT: 221-219.
Not sure this can work in this crazy environment, this is one of the most difficult tasks to perform accurately.
Obviously, a flash crash out of nowhere negates any estimates.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
RECENT POSTS:
Thursday  October 15, 2020 (DJIA:28,513) “Recession Over ? Depends on Who You Ask – Flash Crash Before Election? Good Bet”
Is the recession that started in February over ?

Depends on who you ask.
If you ask Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida you would get a strong “maybe.” If you ask the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official scorekeeper, you’ll get a “We’ll let you know when we have waded through a host of economic date, and that could be in a day or two, on not for months !”
If you ask most struggling Americans, you’ll get a snarl.
Clarida told attendees at the Institute for International Finance conference yesterday, “This recession was by far the deepest in postwar history, but it also may go into the record books as the briefest recession in U.S. history.”
The shortest on record going back to 1857 was a 6 monther (January-July 1980), so I doubt it.
Historically, the NBER takes its time marking  the beginning and end of recessions, since its analysis encompasses a host of data.
       If you ask me, I would say the Administration is currently twisting arms, legs, and  whatever to get a declaration from the NBER before November 3.  They may take Fed Vice Chair Clarida’s quote anyhow and run with it at the Town Hall tonight.
If in fact the recession is over, why would Congress be considering another  stimulus ?
If this was not a presidential election year, would any of this be happening ?
Odds are against it, but I think they will agree  to a $1.85 trillion stimulus.
BOTTOM LINE:
     This is a phony economy: without all the Fed and Congressional  stimulus to-date, we’d be in a depression.
This is a phony stock market: vastly overpriced propped by brainless algos, which will betray their programmers any day.
This is a phony Administration: Lies, untethered divisiveness, Un-American attempt to undermine our democratic representative constitutional republic that hundreds of thousands of real Americans gave life and limb to defend.
At some point, we will pay a dear price for this behavior at the top. This may be the first time ever that there has been a stock market that has hit new all-time highs while the vast number of Americans are suffering, economically, physically, and socially.  It will adjust downward, and that downward will be devastating. 
With the prospect of a post-stimulus slump in the economy, any declaration of an end to the recession would be premature, but stranger things have happened over the last four years.
The stock market has sizzled while the economy fizzled. There is something very dangerous about that.
What if the stock market suddenly adjusted to levels that have reflected all that is happening ?
ANSWER: Flash Crash
BEWARE: The three amigos (the Fed, the Administration, and the Street) will hype the market with as much BS as they can drag out going into the election. This will trigger brief rallies that will be dangerous to chase.
………………………………………………………………………………….

Resistance:  DJIA: 28,725; SPX: 3,521; COMP: 11901; QQQ: 295.50
Support: DJIA: 28,110;  S&P 500: 3,450; Nasdaq:11,630; QQQ: 292-286
………………………………………………………………………………….
Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/12
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     272
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,363
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      121
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      541
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:  1,568
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      461
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:      220
…………………………………………………………………………………..
I would like to try the following for the above stocks.
The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – . Changes in broker ratings and earnings reports/projections add to the difficulty. Technical-only estimates of short-term price ranges are:
FB:
272-266; AMZN: 3,363 – 3,298; AAPL:121-120; NFLX: 541- 527; GOOG: 1,568-1,540; TSLA: 461-437; MSFT: 220-217.
Obviously, a flash crash out of nowhere negates any estimates.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Wednesday  October 15, 2020 (DJIA: 28,679) “Tie Game – Bulls and Bears”
Q3 earnings will hit the Street in coming weeks. With so many companies reluctant to provide guidance, there will be some surprises in both directions.
Generally S&P 500 companies are expected to log in losses on average of as much as 15%
But who knows what magic the crafters of the bottom lines can come up with ?
It can be a hazardous venture for anyone buying before an earnings report, worse yet, are analysts  revisions for the next quarter along with those deadly downgrades.
      Analyst ratings include: Strong Buy, Buy, outperform, overweight, Accumulate Neutral, Market Perform, Market Underperform, Underweight and more.
Just a seemingly minor downgrade can hammer a stock, like Buy from Strong Buy.     With so much uncertainty and potential for  surprises, ratings changes will increase, hazardous for holders of stocks as well as short sellers
BOTTOM LINE:
We could be tracing out a major double top September 3rd and now.  We  are experiencing an economic rebound from the extreme lows posted in March and April.  The key is follow through.  Can the rebound get legs, or has too much internal damage  been done ? Too early to tell.
As noted repeatedly, the S&P 500 is historically very overvalued. Its Price to Sales ratio  is out of sight relative to the past.  The same for its Price to Earnings ratio/
       At some point, the market must adjust to reality, a level that discounts known and perceived positives and negatives. Odds indicate that would be lower, but the “fever” on the Street is running hot, and it will take a major break in ranks by institutions to send the market down. That can happen at any moment.  Investors are sitting on major gains, which must be locked in at some point….before the market plunges.

………………………………………………………………………………….

Resistance:  DJIA: 28,725; SPX: 3,521; COMP: 11901; QQQ: 295.50
………………………………………………………………………………….
Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/12
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     276
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,443
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      121
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      544
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:  1,571
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      446
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:      223
Key near-term resistance: The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – down one day on news, up the next. It looks like we are seeing short covering in the techs, new buying risky. RESISTANCE STARTS: FB:279; AMZN:3,379; AAPL: 123*; NFLX: 571*; GOOG: 1,595*; TSLA: 454; MSFT: 230 * Update
Note: GOOG and NFLX are showing bids above Tuesday’s close.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Tuesday October 14, 2020 (DJIA: 28,679) “Big Blow-Off Techs – Q3 Earnings Loom”
Shortly, Q3 earnings will hit the Street with tech stocks looking better, but the S&P 500 logging in a loss of 15% or worse.  That could explain the surge in tech stocks yesterday.
The gap open is indicative of panicked short covering .
If the S&P 500 was overvalued before COVID-19 struck, how overvalued is it now that corporate earnings are lower and the economy needs yet another stimulus package to survive ?
Economically, we are experiencing a sharp rebound from severely depressed economic conditions in Q1 and Q2.  The Street is expecting the rebound to continue, however 30 million Americans are still out of work, businesses are still closing, and COVID is on a tear in 29 states as we enter the Flu season.
Without unprecedented Fed and government stimulation packages, we would be in a depression.
Two different methods of calculating the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 indicate the S&P is anywhere from 42% (FactSet) tom 90% (Shiller) overvalued compared to  a 10-yeararithmetic mean.
Let’s toss out the Shiller P/E and we are still seriously overvalued.
Why ?  I blame the buy-biased algorithms used by many institutions  to value the stock market.
As noted yesterday when I quoted Goldman’s Amy Joseph Cohen  who is warning of significant downside risk. She agrees that many of the variables faced today “can’t fit into our models.”
      If this is true for most of the Street’s models (algos), the market is extremely vulnerable in light of the overvaluation reflected in the S&P 500’s P/Es.
BOTTOM LINE:
Yesterday’s headline here was, “Short Squeeze in Techs- Potential for Plunge Rises.”  I called the market’s action a “second and final top,” a “death knell” for the rebound since March as uncertainty about chaos in the election process on top of a dysfunctional administration weigh-in on investor confidence.
That, I noted,  would chop the market off at the knees.
Already we are seeing problems for voters. Technical problems caused voters hours of waiting in Atlanta. This will get ugly.
………………………………………………………………………………….

Resistance:  DJIA: 28,895; SPX: 3,540; COMP: 12,000; QQQ: 301
………………………………………………………………………………….
Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/12
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     275
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,442
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      124
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      540
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:  1,569
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      442
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:      221
Key near-term resistance: The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – down one day on news, up the next. It looks like we are seeing short covering in the techs, new buying risky. RESISTANCE STARTS: FB:279; AMZN:3,379*; AAPL: 131; NFLX: 547; GOOG: 1,583*; TSLA: 454*; MSFT: 225        * Update
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                          
George Brooks
Investor’s first read.com
brooksie01@aol.com
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recession Over ? Depends on Who You Ask – Flash Crash Before Election – Good Bet

INVESTOR’S first read.com – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 28,513
S&P 500: 3,988
Nasdaq Comp.:11,768
Russell: 1,626
Thursday October 15, 2020    8:42 a.m.
……………………………………..
brooksie01@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

November 15, 2019 (DJIA – 28,004)   I Called for a bear market to start in January, that the initial plunge would be 12%-18% – “straight down.” It started mid-February, dropped 16.3%, rallied then  plunged another 32.8%.
…………………………………………………..
January 20, 2020 (DJIA:29,348) My blog,  “INSANITY,” projected a bear market decline of  30% – 45%. The DJIA plunged 38.4% in 21 days.
………………………………………………….
With the DJIA at 18,591on March 24, I wrote that , while I see lower prices later in the year, I expect a big rally with the upside potential of DJIA 22,037 (S&P 500 : 2,617) – it went higher.
With the DJIA at 23,942 (S&P 500) on April 15, I
called for  an end to  rally, up 29% but well short of  today.   how far the rally extended.  On May 18, I began to warn of  Bubble #2
August 6, I headline “SELL” with DJIA at 27,201 (S&P 500:3,327). Another “Fed” bubble.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Is the recession that started in February over ?
Depends on who you ask.
If you ask Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida you would get a strong “maybe.” If you ask the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official scorekeeper, you’ll get a “We’ll let you know when we have waded through a host of economic date, and that could be in a day or two, on not for months !”
If you ask most struggling Americans, you’ll get a snarl.
Clarida told attendees at the Institute for International Finance conference yesterday, “This recession was by far the deepest in postwar history, but it also may go into the record books as the briefest recession in U.S. history.”
The shortest on record going back to 1857 was a 6 monther (January-July 1980), so I doubt it.
Historically, the NBER takes its time marking  the beginning and end of recessions, since its analysis encompasses a host of data.
       If you ask me, I would say the Administration is currently twisting arms, legs, and  whatever to get a declaration from the NBER before November 3.  They may take Fed Vice Chair Clarida’s quote anyhow and run with it at the Town Hall tonight.
If in fact the recession is over, why would Congress be considering another  stimulus ?
If this was not a presidential election year, would any of this be happening ?
Odds are against it, but I think they will agree  to a $1.85 trillion stimulus.
BOTTOM LINE:
     This is a phony economy: without all the Fed and Congressional  stimulus to-date, we’d be in a depression.
This is a phony stock market: vastly overpriced propped by brainless algos, which will betray their programmers any day.
This is a phony Administration: Lies, untethered divisiveness, Un-American attempt to undermine our democratic representative constitutional republic that hundreds of thousands of real Americans gave life and limb to defend.
At some point, we will pay a dear price for this behavior at the top. This may be the first time ever that there has been a stock market that has hit new all-time highs while the vast number of Americans are suffering, economically, physically, and socially.  It will adjust downward, and that downward will be devastating. 
With the prospect of a post-stimulus slump in the economy, any declaration of an end to the recession would be premature, but stranger things have happened over the last four years.
The stock market has sizzled while the economy fizzled. There is something very dangerous about that.
What if the stock market suddenly adjusted to levels that have reflected all that is happening ?
ANSWER: Flash Crash
BEWARE: The three amigos (the Fed, the Administration, and the Street) will hype the market with as much BS as they can drag out going into the election. This will trigger brief rallies that will be dangerous to chase.
………………………………………………………………………………….

Resistance:  DJIA: 28,725; SPX: 3,521; COMP: 11901; QQQ: 295.50
Support: DJIA: 28,110;  S&P 500: 3,450; Nasdaq:11,630; QQQ: 292-286
………………………………………………………………………………….
Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/12
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     272
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,363
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      121
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      541
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:  1,568
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      461
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:      220
…………………………………………………………………………………..
I would like to try the following for the above stocks.
The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – . Changes in broker ratings and earnings reports/projections add to the difficulty. Technical-only estimates of short-term price ranges are:
FB:
272-266; AMZN: 3,363 – 3,298; AAPL:121-120; NFLX: 541- 527; GOOG: 1,568-1,540; TSLA: 461-437; MSFT: 220-217.
Obviously, a flash crash out of nowhere negates any estimates.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
RECENT POSTS:
Wednesday  October 15, 2020 (DJIA: 28,679) “Tie Game – Bulls and Bears”
Q3 earnings will hit the Street in coming weeks. With so many companies reluctant to provide guidance, there will be some surprises in both directions.
Generally S&P 500 companies are expected to log in losses on average of as much as 15%
But who knows what magic the crafters of the bottom lines can come up with ?
It can be a hazardous venture for anyone buying before an earnings report, worse yet, are analysts  revisions for the next quarter along with those deadly downgrades.
      Analyst ratings include: Strong Buy, Buy, outperform, overweight, Accumulate Neutral, Market Perform, Market Underperform, Underweight and more.
Just a seemingly minor downgrade can hammer a stock, like Buy from Strong Buy.     With so much uncertainty and potential for  surprises, ratings changes will increase, hazardous for holders of stocks as well as short sellers
BOTTOM LINE:
We could be tracing out a major double top September 3rd and now.  We  are experiencing an economic rebound from the extreme lows posted in March and April.  The key is follow through.  Can the rebound get legs, or has too much internal damage  been done ? Too early to tell.
As noted repeatedly, the S&P 500 is historically very overvalued. Its Price to Sales ratio  is out of sight relative to the past.  The same for its Price to Earnings ratio/
       At some point, the market must adjust to reality, a level that discounts known and perceived positives and negatives. Odds indicate that would be lower, but the “fever” on the Street is running hot, and it will take a major break in ranks by institutions to send the market down. That can happen at any moment.  Investors are sitting on major gains, which must be locked in at some point….before the market plunges.

………………………………………………………………………………….

Resistance:  DJIA: 28,725; SPX: 3,521; COMP: 11901; QQQ: 295.50
………………………………………………………………………………….
Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/12
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     276
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,443
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      121
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      544
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:  1,571
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      446
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:      223
Key near-term resistance: The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – down one day on news, up the next. It looks like we are seeing short covering in the techs, new buying risky. RESISTANCE STARTS: FB:279; AMZN:3,379; AAPL: 123*; NFLX: 571*; GOOG: 1,595*; TSLA: 454; MSFT: 230 * Update
Note: GOOG and NFLX are showing bids above Tuesday’s close.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

 

 

Tuesday October 14, 2020 (DJIA: 28,679) “Big Blow-Off Techs – Q3 Earnings Loom”
Shortly, Q3 earnings will hit the Street with tech stocks looking better, but the S&P 500 logging in a loss of 15% or worse.  That could explain the surge in tech stocks yesterday.
The gap open is indicative of panicked short covering .
If the S&P 500 was overvalued before COVID-19 struck, how overvalued is it now that corporate earnings are lower and the economy needs yet another stimulus package to survive ?
Economically, we are experiencing a sharp rebound from severely depressed economic conditions in Q1 and Q2.  The Street is expecting the rebound to continue, however 30 million Americans are still out of work, businesses are still closing, and COVID is on a tear in 29 states as we enter the Flu season.
Without unprecedented Fed and government stimulation packages, we would be in a depression.
Two different methods of calculating the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 indicate the S&P is anywhere from 42% (FactSet) tom 90% (Shiller) overvalued compared to  a 10-yeararithmetic mean.
Let’s toss out the Shiller P/E and we are still seriously overvalued.
Why ?  I blame the buy-biased algorithms used by many institutions  to value the stock market.
As noted yesterday when I quoted Goldman’s Amy Joseph Cohen  who is warning of significant downside risk. She agrees that many of the variables faced today “can’t fit into our models.”
      If this is true for most of the Street’s models (algos), the market is extremely vulnerable in light of the overvaluation reflected in the S&P 500’s P/Es.
BOTTOM LINE:
Yesterday’s headline here was, “Short Squeeze in Techs- Potential for Plunge Rises.”  I called the market’s action a “second and final top,” a “death knell” for the rebound since March as uncertainty about chaos in the election process on top of a dysfunctional administration weigh-in on investor confidence.
That, I noted,  would chop the market off at the knees.
Already we are seeing problems for voters. Technical problems caused voters hours of waiting in Atlanta. This will get ugly.
………………………………………………………………………………….

Resistance:  DJIA: 28,895; SPX: 3,540; COMP: 12,000; QQQ: 301
………………………………………………………………………………….
Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/12
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     275
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,442
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      124
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      540
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:  1,569
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      442
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:      221
Key near-term resistance: The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – down one day on news, up the next. It looks like we are seeing short covering in the techs, new buying risky. RESISTANCE STARTS: FB:279; AMZN:3,379*; AAPL: 131; NFLX: 547; GOOG: 1,583*; TSLA: 454*; MSFT: 225        * Update
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

 

Monday October 12, 2020 (DJIA:28,586) “Short Squeeze in Techs – Potential for Plunge Rises”

This looks like  the second and final top in the recovery that started March 23 is underway. I still expect another stimulus package, so that may extend it.
It looks like a short squeeze in Techs and spike in the  rest of market, dangerous because a lot of investors will be fooled.
A MarketWatch headline Friday, “Goldman’s Abby Joseph Cohen Warns Over Considerable Market Downside” called attention to something I have warned about for over a year.
 The highly regarded market strategist told Bloomberg TV, “I am quite concerned that there could be considerable downside, depending on factors that we can’t fit into our models.”
The KEY here is her reference to “factors we can’t fit into our models.”
That’s the problem, that’s why the buy-only algos , which  have been in the drivers seat for years except  for  a 21-day flash crash in February/March, are not reflecting reality.
Her models, as well as many on the Streets, have not been programmed to factor in all the uncertainties and negatives looming out there well past election day.  The market’s action is grossly misleading. The market has been overvalued for more than a year, because the Street’s algos have not been programmed for what is happening.
Nothing in our past compares to what we are facing now. The prospect of an long contested election result, potential for bloodshed, and the potential for armed insurrection if our authoritarian president refuses to accept  loss and his ability to orchestrate division between Americans.
Michigan is an example, the foiled attempt to kidnap its Democratic governor by a well-armed militia group.
BOTTOM LINE:
This rally could be the death knell for the market’s rebound from the March lows.  I would like to think the recent strength reflects to possibility of a Democrat sweep in November, December, January or however long it takes to finalize the results, but the market’s extreme overvaluation suggests the need for a correction.
Looming out there is the potential for chaos, a dysfunctional government becoming extremely dysfunctional, an interruption of the basic day-in and day-out functioning of our government, a question about who is in charge.
That would chop the market off at the knees.
       With Cohen’s admission that her “models” cannot factor-in what is happening now, she is really suggesting that most of the models (algos)  can’t factor-in what is happening now and are giving us a false read on the market’s strength and  therefore vulnerability.
………………………………………………………………………………….

Resistance:  DJIA: 28,651; SPX: 3,485; COMP: 11,47111,622; QQQ: 286
………………………………………………………………………………….
Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/7
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     264
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,285
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      117
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      538
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:   1,514
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      433
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:     215
Key near-term resistance: The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – down one day on news, up the next. It looks like we are seeing short covering in the techs, new buying risky. RESISTANCE STARTS: FB:279*; AMZN:3,361; AAPL: 125*; NFLX: 547*; GOOG: 1,547*; TSLA: 461; MSFT: 223*        * Update
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Friday October 9, 2020 (DJIA: 28,425) “Look For a Stimulus Expectation Spike Today”
     With the Biden/Harris lead widening, is fear of a contested election fading ?  Is that why the market is pressing higher ?
Or, is it a stimulus package of $1.85 – $2.0 trillion ?
The latter makes sense, but nothing would surprise me about reversing the will of the people on November 3 and beyond.  Guns have to come off the street. What happened in Michigan  is un-American -That’s what happens in a banana republic.  That’s just one of many reasons Trump has to GO !
      No thinking American wants a lawless country, and that’s where this is headed. If we get there, reversal before unthinkable damage is done, is tough to achieve.
      There are times when politics matter. This is one of them. These are NOT conservatives, I would love to see the conservatives of yore return.
Many have swung over, like George Will, for example.
I think this economy is phony, stock market is phony and administration is phony. Something has to give – let’s start with overvalued stock prices.
BOTTOM LINE:
It helps to step back and examine how you are feeling about the market, not your real “gut,” but where your “fear level” is.  Is it safe to add to positions ?
Today,  my fear level is low, though my gut says be sure to have enough cash and sit close to the exit with  equity positions.
After all, the market snaps back after every correction, a stimulus is a good bet in a presidential election year, what’s there to worry about ?
A low fear level is a signal
to doubt your instincts. I am not sure I am explaining this well enough, we can be an indicator, if we are able to objectively sense our feeling.  Boasting about a great trade is a warning signal, as is jumping into another position immediately after a big score.
Plenty !   That’s the kind of complacency  that can precede a correction –   Getting on the right side of the market isn’t that easy.
BOTTOM LINE:
      Odds favor a spike in prices today or in a couple days followed by a correction. Whether that correction becomes a nasty setback depends on what news hits the market when it is ready for a rebound.
An announcement of another stimulus package could be the spike.
It’s just a little too quiet out there, i.e., just about the time  one thinks it is safe to load up on the latest hype – you find out it was a dumb idea.
We are in a “news whipsaw” now, so decisions based on the latest news is likely to be wrong.
………………………………………………………………………………..

Resistance:  DJIA: 28,561; SPX: 3,460; COMP: 11,471; QQQ: 283
………………………………………………………………………………….
Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/7
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     264
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,190
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      115
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      532
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:   1,465
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      426
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:     210
Key near-term resistance: The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – down one day on news, up the next.  RESISTANCE STARTS: FB:272*; AMZN:3,197; AAPL: 115.50*; NFLX: 547*; GOOG: 1,513*; TSLA: 428; MSFT: 214*        * Update
This group has been struggling, though failure to extend the correction that started in early September may chase shorts, ergo one more spike.   There could be a quick trade here…..for the nimble, that is.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Thursday October 8, 2020 (DJIA: 28,303) “Street Not Afraid of Biden/Harris”

The News whipsaw is back !   In short – buying or shorting the news in this market is treacherous, don’t try it.
Insanity – at the top ! after four years of this, I should not be surprised that in the Street is beginning to see a Biden victory as bullish.
Last night’s Harris/Pence debate iced the cake.

MarketWatch’s Mark DeCambre’s subhead yesterday was, “Is the Market Pricing in  a Democrat Sweep ?”
      Yes, it  would likely mean higher taxes for corporations they can handle it, their 40%  tax cut by   the “Tax Cut and Jobs Act” was over the top, especially since individuals only got in the neighborhood of a 1% cut, higher for big earners.
What a Democratic  clean sweep would mean is a return to predictability, the rule of law and  an end to the divisiveness coming down from the top. That alone is bullish.
Besides, the Street and corporate America have already  got what they wanted, a nice extension of Obama’s economic recovery and  bull market.
So a flip flop would make sense, it  just comes as a surprise to me for a Street that has been in the Trump camp for four years.
Like his Democrat predecessor,  Biden would inherit a mess. The rebuild of confidence, international ties, and economy would take time. The hard clean up work would take time, unpopular decisions would have to be made on trade, foreign relations, taxes and paying for infrastructure programs after so much has been spent on propping a failing economy up with stimulus  and  bailouts.
BOTTOM LINE:

Money can be made in late stage bull markets – the fever is up, appetites have been whetted, people are making money and they don’t want the party to end.
Regardless of who wins, a correction/bear market is imminent. They happen, and can come out of nowhere.
It appears the Street is betting on an economy that is totally impervious to a rebound in COVID on top of the onset of the flu season, however, that is drawing to an inside straight.
      A bear market will start when  the BIG money breaks ranks, stops buying and sells in size.
      Up to now, buyers on the dip have been rewarded and will continue to do so  until the dip before the next bear market.
But it really doesn’t seem possible, the market Has rebounded from dozens of corrections, some pretty severe.
A bear market just doesn’t seem possible, does it ?    Well, none of those in the past have either.
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Resistance:  DJIA: 28,487; SPX: 3,438; COMP: 11,438; QQQ: 282
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Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/7
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     258
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,225
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      115
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      535
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:   1,460
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      425
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:     209
Key near-term resistance: The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – down one day on news, up the next.  RESISTANCE STARTS: FB:259*; AMZN:3,215; AAPL: 116*; NFLX: 540*; GOOG: 1,470*; TSLA: 429; MSFT: 209*        * Update
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George Brooks
Investor’s first read.com
brooksie01@aol.com
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

Tie Game – Bulls and Bears

INVESTOR’S first read.com – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 28,679
S&P 500: 3,511
Nasdaq Comp.:11,863
Russell: 1,637
Tuesday October 13, 2020    9:16 a.m.
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brooksie01@aol.com
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November 15, 2019 (DJIA – 28,004)   I Called for a bear market to start in January, that the initial plunge would be 12%-18% – “straight down.” It started mid-February, dropped 16.3%, rallied then  plunged another 32.8%.
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January 20, 2020 (DJIA:29,348) My blog,  “INSANITY,” projected a bear market decline of  30% – 45%. The DJIA plunged 38.4% in 21 days.
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With the DJIA at 18,591on March 24, I wrote that , while I see lower prices later in the year, I expect a big rally with the upside potential of DJIA 22,037 (S&P 500 : 2,617) – it went higher.
With the DJIA at 23,942 (S&P 500) on April 15, I
called for  an end to  rally, up 29% but well short of  today.   how far the rally extended.  On May 18, I began to warn of  Bubble #2
August 6, I headline “SELL” with DJIA at 27,201 (S&P 500:3,327). Another “Fed” bubble.
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Q3 earnings will hit the Street in coming weeks. With so many companies reluctant to provide guidance, there will be some surprises in both directions.
Generally S&P 500 companies are expected to log in losses on average of as much as 15%
But who knows what magic the crafters of the bottom lines can come up with ?
It can be a hazardous venture for anyone buying before an earnings report, worse yet, are analysts  revisions for the next quarter along with those deadly downgrades.
      Analyst ratings include: Strong Buy, Buy, outperform, overweight, Accumulate Neutral, Market Perform, Market Underperform, Underweight and more.
Just a seemingly minor downgrade can hammer a stock, like Buy from Strong Buy.     With so much uncertainty and potential for  surprises, ratings changes will increase, hazardous for holders of stocks as well as short sellers
BOTTOM LINE:
We could be tracing out a major double top September 3rd and now.  We  are experiencing an economic rebound from the extreme lows posted in March and April.  The key is follow through.  Can the rebound get legs, or has too much internal damage  been done ? Too early to tell.
As noted repeatedly, the S&P 500 is historically very overvalued. Its Price to Sales ratio  is out of sight relative to the past.  The same for its Price to Earnings ratio/
       At some point, the market must adjust to reality, a level that discounts known and perceived positives and negatives. Odds indicate that would be lower, but the “fever” on the Street is running hot, and it will take a major break in ranks by institutions to send the market down. That can happen at any moment.  Investors are sitting on major gains, which must be locked in at some point….before the market plunges.

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Resistance:  DJIA: 28,725; SPX: 3,521; COMP: 11901; QQQ: 295.50
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Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/12
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     276
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,443
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      121
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      544
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:  1,571
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      446
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:      223
Key near-term resistance: The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – down one day on news, up the next. It looks like we are seeing short covering in the techs, new buying risky. RESISTANCE STARTS: FB:279; AMZN:3,379; AAPL: 123*; NFLX: 571*; GOOG: 1,595*; TSLA: 454; MSFT: 230 * Update
Note: GOOG and NFLX are showing bids above Tuesday’s close.

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RECENT POSTS:
Tuesday October 14, 2020 (DJIA: 28,679) “Big Blow-Off Techs – Q3 Earnings Loom”
Shortly, Q3 earnings will hit the Street with tech stocks looking better, but the S&P 500 logging in a loss of 15% or worse.  That could explain the surge in tech stocks yesterday.
The gap open is indicative of panicked short covering .
If the S&P 500 was overvalued before COVID-19 struck, how overvalued is it now that corporate earnings are lower and the economy needs yet another stimulus package to survive ?
Economically, we are experiencing a sharp rebound from severely depressed economic conditions in Q1 and Q2.  The Street is expecting the rebound to continue, however 30 million Americans are still out of work, businesses are still closing, and COVID is on a tear in 29 states as we enter the Flu season.
Without unprecedented Fed and government stimulation packages, we would be in a depression.
Two different methods of calculating the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 indicate the S&P is anywhere from 42% (FactSet) tom 90% (Shiller) overvalued compared to  a 10-yeararithmetic mean.
Let’s toss out the Shiller P/E and we are still seriously overvalued.
Why ?  I blame the buy-biased algorithms used by many institutions  to value the stock market.
As noted yesterday when I quoted Goldman’s Amy Joseph Cohen  who is warning of significant downside risk. She agrees that many of the variables faced today “can’t fit into our models.”
      If this is true for most of the Street’s models (algos), the market is extremely vulnerable in light of the overvaluation reflected in the S&P 500’s P/Es.
BOTTOM LINE:
Yesterday’s headline here was, “Short Squeeze in Techs- Potential for Plunge Rises.”  I called the market’s action a “second and final top,” a “death knell” for the rebound since March as uncertainty about chaos in the election process on top of a dysfunctional administration weigh-in on investor confidence.
That, I noted,  would chop the market off at the knees.
Already we are seeing problems for voters. Technical problems caused voters hours of waiting in Atlanta. This will get ugly.
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Resistance:  DJIA: 28,895; SPX: 3,540; COMP: 12,000; QQQ: 301
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Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/12
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     275
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,442
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      124
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      540
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:  1,569
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      442
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:      221
Key near-term resistance: The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – down one day on news, up the next. It looks like we are seeing short covering in the techs, new buying risky. RESISTANCE STARTS: FB:279; AMZN:3,379*; AAPL: 131; NFLX: 547; GOOG: 1,583*; TSLA: 454*; MSFT: 225        * Update
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Monday October 12, 2020 (DJIA:28,586) “Short Squeeze in Techs – Potential for Plunge Rises”

This looks like  the second and final top in the recovery that started March 23 is underway. I still expect another stimulus package, so that may extend it.
It looks like a short squeeze in Techs and spike in the  rest of market, dangerous because a lot of investors will be fooled.
A MarketWatch headline Friday, “Goldman’s Abby Joseph Cohen Warns Over Considerable Market Downside” called attention to something I have warned about for over a year.
 The highly regarded market strategist told Bloomberg TV, “I am quite concerned that there could be considerable downside, depending on factors that we can’t fit into our models.”
The KEY here is her reference to “factors we can’t fit into our models.”
That’s the problem, that’s why the buy-only algos , which  have been in the drivers seat for years except  for  a 21-day flash crash in February/March, are not reflecting reality.
Her models, as well as many on the Streets, have not been programmed to factor in all the uncertainties and negatives looming out there well past election day.  The market’s action is grossly misleading. The market has been overvalued for more than a year, because the Street’s algos have not been programmed for what is happening.
Nothing in our past compares to what we are facing now. The prospect of an long contested election result, potential for bloodshed, and the potential for armed insurrection if our authoritarian president refuses to accept  loss and his ability to orchestrate division between Americans.
Michigan is an example, the foiled attempt to kidnap its Democratic governor by a well-armed militia group.
BOTTOM LINE:
This rally could be the death knell for the market’s rebound from the March lows.  I would like to think the recent strength reflects to possibility of a Democrat sweep in November, December, January or however long it takes to finalize the results, but the market’s extreme overvaluation suggests the need for a correction.
Looming out there is the potential for chaos, a dysfunctional government becoming extremely dysfunctional, an interruption of the basic day-in and day-out functioning of our government, a question about who is in charge.
That would chop the market off at the knees.
       With Cohen’s admission that her “models” cannot factor-in what is happening now, she is really suggesting that most of the models (algos)  can’t factor-in what is happening now and are giving us a false read on the market’s strength and  therefore vulnerability.
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Resistance:  DJIA: 28,651; SPX: 3,485; COMP: 11,47111,622; QQQ: 286
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Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/7
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     264
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,285
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      117
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      538
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:   1,514
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      433
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:     215
Key near-term resistance: The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – down one day on news, up the next. It looks like we are seeing short covering in the techs, new buying risky. RESISTANCE STARTS: FB:279*; AMZN:3,361; AAPL: 125*; NFLX: 547*; GOOG: 1,547*; TSLA: 461; MSFT: 223*        * Update
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Friday October 9, 2020 (DJIA: 28,425) “Look For a Stimulus Expectation Spike Today”
     With the Biden/Harris lead widening, is fear of a contested election fading ?  Is that why the market is pressing higher ?
Or, is it a stimulus package of $1.85 – $2.0 trillion ?
The latter makes sense, but nothing would surprise me about reversing the will of the people on November 3 and beyond.  Guns have to come off the street. What happened in Michigan  is un-American -That’s what happens in a banana republic.  That’s just one of many reasons Trump has to GO !
      No thinking American wants a lawless country, and that’s where this is headed. If we get there, reversal before unthinkable damage is done, is tough to achieve.
      There are times when politics matter. This is one of them. These are NOT conservatives, I would love to see the conservatives of yore return.
Many have swung over, like George Will, for example.
I think this economy is phony, stock market is phony and administration is phony. Something has to give – let’s start with overvalued stock prices.
BOTTOM LINE:
It helps to step back and examine how you are feeling about the market, not your real “gut,” but where your “fear level” is.  Is it safe to add to positions ?
Today,  my fear level is low, though my gut says be sure to have enough cash and sit close to the exit with  equity positions.
After all, the market snaps back after every correction, a stimulus is a good bet in a presidential election year, what’s there to worry about ?
A low fear level is a signal
to doubt your instincts. I am not sure I am explaining this well enough, we can be an indicator, if we are able to objectively sense our feeling.  Boasting about a great trade is a warning signal, as is jumping into another position immediately after a big score.
Plenty !   That’s the kind of complacency  that can precede a correction –   Getting on the right side of the market isn’t that easy.
BOTTOM LINE:
      Odds favor a spike in prices today or in a couple days followed by a correction. Whether that correction becomes a nasty setback depends on what news hits the market when it is ready for a rebound.
An announcement of another stimulus package could be the spike.
It’s just a little too quiet out there, i.e., just about the time  one thinks it is safe to load up on the latest hype – you find out it was a dumb idea.
We are in a “news whipsaw” now, so decisions based on the latest news is likely to be wrong.
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Resistance:  DJIA: 28,561; SPX: 3,460; COMP: 11,471; QQQ: 283
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Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/7
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     264
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,190
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      115
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      532
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:   1,465
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      426
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:     210
Key near-term resistance: The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – down one day on news, up the next.  RESISTANCE STARTS: FB:272*; AMZN:3,197; AAPL: 115.50*; NFLX: 547*; GOOG: 1,513*; TSLA: 428; MSFT: 214*        * Update
This group has been struggling, though failure to extend the correction that started in early September may chase shorts, ergo one more spike.   There could be a quick trade here…..for the nimble, that is.
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Thursday October 8, 2020 (DJIA: 28,303) “Street Not Afraid of Biden/Harris”

The News whipsaw is back !   In short – buying or shorting the news in this market is treacherous, don’t try it.
Insanity – at the top ! after four years of this, I should not be surprised that in the Street is beginning to see a Biden victory as bullish.
Last night’s Harris/Pence debate iced the cake.

MarketWatch’s Mark DeCambre’s subhead yesterday was, “Is the Market Pricing in  a Democrat Sweep ?”
      Yes, it  would likely mean higher taxes for corporations they can handle it, their 40%  tax cut by   the “Tax Cut and Jobs Act” was over the top, especially since individuals only got in the neighborhood of a 1% cut, higher for big earners.
What a Democratic  clean sweep would mean is a return to predictability, the rule of law and  an end to the divisiveness coming down from the top. That alone is bullish.
Besides, the Street and corporate America have already  got what they wanted, a nice extension of Obama’s economic recovery and  bull market.
So a flip flop would make sense, it  just comes as a surprise to me for a Street that has been in the Trump camp for four years.
Like his Democrat predecessor,  Biden would inherit a mess. The rebuild of confidence, international ties, and economy would take time. The hard clean up work would take time, unpopular decisions would have to be made on trade, foreign relations, taxes and paying for infrastructure programs after so much has been spent on propping a failing economy up with stimulus  and  bailouts.
BOTTOM LINE:

Money can be made in late stage bull markets – the fever is up, appetites have been whetted, people are making money and they don’t want the party to end.
Regardless of who wins, a correction/bear market is imminent. They happen, and can come out of nowhere.
It appears the Street is betting on an economy that is totally impervious to a rebound in COVID on top of the onset of the flu season, however, that is drawing to an inside straight.
      A bear market will start when  the BIG money breaks ranks, stops buying and sells in size.
      Up to now, buyers on the dip have been rewarded and will continue to do so  until the dip before the next bear market.
But it really doesn’t seem possible, the market Has rebounded from dozens of corrections, some pretty severe.
A bear market just doesn’t seem possible, does it ?    Well, none of those in the past have either.
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Resistance:  DJIA: 28,487; SPX: 3,438; COMP: 11,438; QQQ: 282
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Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/7
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     258
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,225
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      115
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      535
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:   1,460
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      425
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:     209
Key near-term resistance: The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – down one day on news, up the next.  RESISTANCE STARTS: FB:259*; AMZN:3,215; AAPL: 116*; NFLX: 540*; GOOG: 1,470*; TSLA: 429; MSFT: 209*        * Update
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Wednesday October 7, 2020  (DJIA: 27,772) “Two More Months of This ! Raise Cash”
A human wrecking ball !
     Trump must go before he wrecks the whole store.  Too much is at stake. The do-nothing Senate must show up. The U.S. House has passed 395 bills that Republican Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell, refuses to even bring to the floor.
This is unparalleled  dysfunction. This is what brings nations down.
Unthinkable as it may be in the Hamptons, this political blundering is what brings stock markets down.
This senseless mayhem at the top levels of our government cuts to the core of the foundation of  stability across the board.  Undermine the core and it all goes south, including the stock market.
As so many people and businesses suffer, the stock market is the last man standing.  As soon  a few big hitters stop buying, it all crumbles.
In a speech to the NABE yesterday, Fed Chair Powell urged Congress to pass another stimulus bill, saying the economic recovery faces a “longer than expected slog back to full recovery.
Trump’s response was to tweet to his team to stop negotiating with congressional Democrats on a stimulus until after the election, when he planned a “major stimulus bill” ……if he wins the election.
       The stock market plunged in response.
The message is obvious, vote for me, and you’ll get your stimulus.               Is this happening in our country ?    Is this the SELL signal that has threatened to take the market down 35%-45%, because we have a deranged president who will be in office for three more months, God forbid another four years ?
It shouldn’t  matter what one’s politics are.  This is just another indication  that the strongest person in the whole world is delusional.
People are hurting, businesses on the edge, and their president can only tweet nonsense.
BOTTOM LINE:
      It means, as a nation, the economy and Stock market is  on the edge. It means at any time, we could see BIG money STOP BUYING and create a vacuum that no one is willing to fill – 2020 Flash Crash #2.
Algos are in there buying this morning, as if nothing is happening to our country.
Resistance starts:
DJIA: 28,125
S&P 500:3,398
Nasdaq Comp.: 11,265
QQQ: 279
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Tuesday  October 7, 2020 (DJIA:28,148)  “Street Now Favors Biden ?”

This has become such a news sensitive market jerking one way, than another like a drunk line dancer.
      Are shorts being chased once again, if so, is it because the Street is worried that Trump will  lose re-election, or is it worried he will win ?
      After four years, the Street may opt for sanity, an end to the rape and pillage of our democratic republic and the daily effort to divide us as Americans.
       Never has the value of  the “rule of law”  been more evident, the importance of truthfulness vs. daily lying and optics.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE STOCK MARKET ?
So far – nothing.  There is something about risk the Street doesn’t get, spoiled by 11 years of economic expansion and bull market interrupted briefly this year for a COVOID moment.
Rigid buy-only algos have  driven stock prices far beyond realistic levels, levels not seen in a hundred years.
What will trigger a reality check ?   How about a touch of acrophobia, or FOMO – not fear of missing out on a buying opportunity, but fear of missing a selling opportunity before the big  flush.”
BOTTOM LINE:
The bear market that started in February was over in a couple months, juiced by unprecedented Fed and Congressional stimulus, which triggered a sharp rebound in the economy possibly enough to cause the  NBER to announce the recession is over in a month or two.
So much damage has been done by COVID and the necessary response to COVID, and now we are seeing a rebound in COVID infections  as Flu season begins – a double-dip recession ?
No way !     Really ?   How about recessions in Jan. 1980 – July 1980 and July 1981 – Nov. 1982.
At some point, the charade will end – no more hype by the Fed, the Administration and Street. That’s when the stock market will thumb its nose at the algos and head south for the winter.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will present his position on the economy and trade  today.  He is mainly responsible for stock market bubble #1 Jan.2019 – Feb. 2020, and bubble #2 – March 2020 to the present.
Appointed to his prestigious office by President Trump, it can be assumed he will  attempt to inflate the bubble further.

Monday October 6, 20920 (DJIA: 27,682) “Will Covid Surge Impact a Struggling Economy”
What to do: Decide your tolerance for risk and raise the amount of cash necessary to cover it….and don’t worry about what other investors are doing, don’t listen to the boasts about their scores.– stay with your plan. The new normal is the flash crash, a swift plunge of 10%  12%.  So far, most have recovered within a reasonable amount of time – don’t count on that happening next time.

Why didn’t the market take a bigger hit Friday ?  Probably because so much of the trading is computerized (algorithms) and what happened Friday isn’t plugged into the algos’ programming – the difference between a computer and the human brain.
I expect a stimulus bill of $2.0 trillion before Nov. 3 (of course).  I think it is built into the market’s prices, but in truth, passage would confirm my belief that another wave of  unemployment, closings, bankruptcies, and another slump in business looms.
Possible, is an announcement by the NBER that the recession that started in February is over, owing to the sharp rebound in the economy from severely depressed levels earlier in the year.
Q3 GDP will be announced at  the end of October, and show a  rebound of more than 25% at an annual rate, but that is from depressed levels.  Close to 30 million Americans are on the unemployment rolls. While 857,000 jobs were added in September, that is down from 1.4 million added in August and 1.7 million in July.  Reportedly, more layoffs are planned for retail, airlines, financial services, and oil.
Consumer Confidence (current and future expectations) is rebounding sharply from severely depressed levels earlier in the year, but still below peaks hit prior to COVID-19.
But COVID is surging again in New York, California, Texas, Wisconsin, Florida and the upper mid-west, especially in states that are re-opened and students are returning to school..
Just about the time it appeared safe to step out to pre-COVID lifestyles, risk raises its ugly head.
BOTTOM LINE:
        Today’s rebound is suspect since the presidency is in question, and COVID is on the rampage again.  President Trump’s joyride-photo-op  yesterday raises questions about his stability.  Congress has not been kept in the loop on his condition, a serious risk to national security.  BIZZARE !
This kind of irresponsible, immature behavior has never been experienced with past presidents.   But like I noted above, the Street’s algos are not programmed for the dire risks such behavior poses. Maybe we won’t pay a price, however based on time-tested measures of value, stocks are historically overvalued.
        But the Street isn’t phased by outlandish domestic and international events.  That’s arrogance, and you know what that precedes.
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Near-term Resistance/support levels for the market indexes.
Resistance begins at: DJIA:27,900; S&P 500: 3,373; Nasdaq Comp.: 11,176
Support is: DJIA: 27,720; S&P 500: 3,355; Nasdaq Comp.: 11,110
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Follow up to last week’s projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/2
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     265
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,199
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      116
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      520
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:   1,486
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:     425
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:    210
Key near-term resistance:
FB:262*; AMZN:3,140; AAPL: 114*; NFLX: 507*; GOOG: 1,466*; TSLA: 420; MSFT: 207*        * Update
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                             
George Brooks
Investor’s first read.com
brooksie01@aol.com
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

Big-Blow-Off Techs – Q3 Earnings Loom

INVESTOR’S first read.com – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 28,837
S&P 500: 3,534
Nasdaq Comp.:11,876
Russell: 1,649
Tuesday October 13, 2020    9:05 a.m.
……………………………………..
brooksie01@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

November 15, 2019 (DJIA – 28,004)   I Called for a bear market to start in January, that the initial plunge would be 12%-18% – “straight down.” It started mid-February, dropped 16.3%, rallied then  plunged another 32.8%.
…………………………………………………..
January 20, 2020 (DJIA:29,348) My blog,  “INSANITY,” projected a bear market decline of  30% – 45%. The DJIA plunged 38.4% in 21 days.
………………………………………………….
With the DJIA at 18,591on March 24, I wrote that , while I see lower prices later in the year, I expect a big rally with the upside potential of DJIA 22,037 (S&P 500 : 2,617) – it went higher.
With the DJIA at 23,942 (S&P 500) on April 15, I
called for  an end to  rally, up 29% but well short of  today.   how far the rally extended.  On May 18, I began to warn of  Bubble #2
August 6, I headline “SELL” with DJIA at 27,201 (S&P 500:3,327). Another “Fed” bubble.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Shortly, Q3 earnings will hit the Street with tech stocks looking better, but the S&P 500 logging in a loss of 15% or worse.  That could explain the surge in tech stocks yesterday.
The gap open is indicative of panicked short covering .
If the S&P 500 was overvalued before COVID-19 struck, how overvalued is it now that corporate earnings are lower and the economy needs yet another stimulus package to survive ?
Economically, we are experiencing a sharp rebound from severely depressed economic conditions in Q1 and Q2.  The Street is expecting the rebound to continue, however 30 million Americans are still out of work, businesses are still closing, and COVID is on a tear in 29 states as we enter the Flu season.
Without unprecedented Fed and government stimulation packages, we would be in a depression.
Two different methods of calculating the price/earnings ratio of the S&P 500 indicate the S&P is anywhere from 42% (FactSet) tom 90% (Shiller) overvalued compared to  a 10-yeararithmetic mean.
Let’s toss out the Shiller P/E and we are still seriously overvalued.
Why ?  I blame the buy-biased algorithms used by many institutions  to value the stock market.
As noted yesterday when I quoted Goldman’s Amy Joseph Cohen  who is warning of significant downside risk. She agrees that many of the variables faced today “can’t fit into our models.”
      If this is true for most of the Street’s models (algos), the market is extremely vulnerable in light of the overvaluation reflected in the S&P 500’s P/Es.
BOTTOM LINE:
Yesterday’s headline here was, “Short Squeeze in Techs- Potential for Plunge Rises.”  I called the market’s action a “second and final top,” a “death knell” for the rebound since March as uncertainty about chaos in the election process on top of a dysfunctional administration weigh-in on investor confidence.
That, I noted,  would chop the market off at the knees.
Already we are seeing problems for voters. Technical problems caused voters hours of waiting in Atlanta. This will get ugly.
………………………………………………………………………………….

Resistance:  DJIA: 28,895; SPX: 3,540; COMP: 12,000; QQQ: 301
………………………………………………………………………………….
Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/12
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     275
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,442
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      124
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      540
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:  1,569
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      442
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:      221
Key near-term resistance: The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – down one day on news, up the next. It looks like we are seeing short covering in the techs, new buying risky. RESISTANCE STARTS: FB:279; AMZN:3,379*; AAPL: 131; NFLX: 547; GOOG: 1,583*; TSLA: 454*; MSFT: 225        * Update
 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
RECENT POSTS:
Monday October 12, 2020 (DJIA:28,586) “Short Squeeze in Techs – Potential for Plunge Rises”

This looks like  the second and final top in the recovery that started March 23 is underway. I still expect another stimulus package, so that may extend it.
It looks like a short squeeze in Techs and spike in the  rest of market, dangerous because a lot of investors will be fooled.
A MarketWatch headline Friday, “Goldman’s Abby Joseph Cohen Warns Over Considerable Market Downside” called attention to something I have warned about for over a year.
 The highly regarded market strategist told Bloomberg TV, “I am quite concerned that there could be considerable downside, depending on factors that we can’t fit into our models.”
The KEY here is her reference to “factors we can’t fit into our models.”
That’s the problem, that’s why the buy-only algos , which  have been in the drivers seat for years except  for  a 21-day flash crash in February/March, are not reflecting reality.
Her models, as well as many on the Streets, have not been programmed to factor in all the uncertainties and negatives looming out there well past election day.  The market’s action is grossly misleading. The market has been overvalued for more than a year, because the Street’s algos have not been programmed for what is happening.
Nothing in our past compares to what we are facing now. The prospect of an long contested election result, potential for bloodshed, and the potential for armed insurrection if our authoritarian president refuses to accept  loss and his ability to orchestrate division between Americans.
Michigan is an example, the foiled attempt to kidnap its Democratic governor by a well-armed militia group.
BOTTOM LINE:
This rally could be the death knell for the market’s rebound from the March lows.  I would like to think the recent strength reflects to possibility of a Democrat sweep in November, December, January or however long it takes to finalize the results, but the market’s extreme overvaluation suggests the need for a correction.
Looming out there is the potential for chaos, a dysfunctional government becoming extremely dysfunctional, an interruption of the basic day-in and day-out functioning of our government, a question about who is in charge.
That would chop the market off at the knees.
       With Cohen’s admission that her “models” cannot factor-in what is happening now, she is really suggesting that most of the models (algos)  can’t factor-in what is happening now and are giving us a false read on the market’s strength and  therefore vulnerability.
………………………………………………………………………………….

Resistance:  DJIA: 28,651; SPX: 3,485; COMP: 11,47111,622; QQQ: 286
………………………………………………………………………………….
Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/7
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     264
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,285
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      117
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      538
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:   1,514
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      433
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:     215
Key near-term resistance: The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – down one day on news, up the next. It looks like we are seeing short covering in the techs, new buying risky. RESISTANCE STARTS: FB:279*; AMZN:3,361; AAPL: 125*; NFLX: 547*; GOOG: 1,547*; TSLA: 461; MSFT: 223*        * Update
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Friday October 9, 2020 (DJIA: 28,425) “Look For a Stimulus Expectation Spike Today”
     With the Biden/Harris lead widening, is fear of a contested election fading ?  Is that why the market is pressing higher ?
Or, is it a stimulus package of $1.85 – $2.0 trillion ?
The latter makes sense, but nothing would surprise me about reversing the will of the people on November 3 and beyond.  Guns have to come off the street. What happened in Michigan  is un-American -That’s what happens in a banana republic.  That’s just one of many reasons Trump has to GO !
      No thinking American wants a lawless country, and that’s where this is headed. If we get there, reversal before unthinkable damage is done, is tough to achieve.
      There are times when politics matter. This is one of them. These are NOT conservatives, I would love to see the conservatives of yore return.
Many have swung over, like George Will, for example.
I think this economy is phony, stock market is phony and administration is phony. Something has to give – let’s start with overvalued stock prices.
BOTTOM LINE:
It helps to step back and examine how you are feeling about the market, not your real “gut,” but where your “fear level” is.  Is it safe to add to positions ?
Today,  my fear level is low, though my gut says be sure to have enough cash and sit close to the exit with  equity positions.
After all, the market snaps back after every correction, a stimulus is a good bet in a presidential election year, what’s there to worry about ?
A low fear level is a signal
to doubt your instincts. I am not sure I am explaining this well enough, we can be an indicator, if we are able to objectively sense our feeling.  Boasting about a great trade is a warning signal, as is jumping into another position immediately after a big score.
Plenty !   That’s the kind of complacency  that can precede a correction –   Getting on the right side of the market isn’t that easy.
BOTTOM LINE:
      Odds favor a spike in prices today or in a couple days followed by a correction. Whether that correction becomes a nasty setback depends on what news hits the market when it is ready for a rebound.
An announcement of another stimulus package could be the spike.
It’s just a little too quiet out there, i.e., just about the time  one thinks it is safe to load up on the latest hype – you find out it was a dumb idea.
We are in a “news whipsaw” now, so decisions based on the latest news is likely to be wrong.
………………………………………………………………………………..

Resistance:  DJIA: 28,561; SPX: 3,460; COMP: 11,471; QQQ: 283
………………………………………………………………………………….
Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/7
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     264
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,190
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      115
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      532
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:   1,465
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      426
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:     210
Key near-term resistance: The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – down one day on news, up the next.  RESISTANCE STARTS: FB:272*; AMZN:3,197; AAPL: 115.50*; NFLX: 547*; GOOG: 1,513*; TSLA: 428; MSFT: 214*        * Update
This group has been struggling, though failure to extend the correction that started in early September may chase shorts, ergo one more spike.   There could be a quick trade here…..for the nimble, that is.
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Thursday October 8, 2020 (DJIA: 28,303) “Street Not Afraid of Biden/Harris”

The News whipsaw is back !   In short – buying or shorting the news in this market is treacherous, don’t try it.
Insanity – at the top ! after four years of this, I should not be surprised that in the Street is beginning to see a Biden victory as bullish.
Last night’s Harris/Pence debate iced the cake.

MarketWatch’s Mark DeCambre’s subhead yesterday was, “Is the Market Pricing in  a Democrat Sweep ?”
      Yes, it  would likely mean higher taxes for corporations they can handle it, their 40%  tax cut by   the “Tax Cut and Jobs Act” was over the top, especially since individuals only got in the neighborhood of a 1% cut, higher for big earners.
What a Democratic  clean sweep would mean is a return to predictability, the rule of law and  an end to the divisiveness coming down from the top. That alone is bullish.
Besides, the Street and corporate America have already  got what they wanted, a nice extension of Obama’s economic recovery and  bull market.
So a flip flop would make sense, it  just comes as a surprise to me for a Street that has been in the Trump camp for four years.
Like his Democrat predecessor,  Biden would inherit a mess. The rebuild of confidence, international ties, and economy would take time. The hard clean up work would take time, unpopular decisions would have to be made on trade, foreign relations, taxes and paying for infrastructure programs after so much has been spent on propping a failing economy up with stimulus  and  bailouts.
BOTTOM LINE:

Money can be made in late stage bull markets – the fever is up, appetites have been whetted, people are making money and they don’t want the party to end.
Regardless of who wins, a correction/bear market is imminent. They happen, and can come out of nowhere.
It appears the Street is betting on an economy that is totally impervious to a rebound in COVID on top of the onset of the flu season, however, that is drawing to an inside straight.
      A bear market will start when  the BIG money breaks ranks, stops buying and sells in size.
      Up to now, buyers on the dip have been rewarded and will continue to do so  until the dip before the next bear market.
But it really doesn’t seem possible, the market Has rebounded from dozens of corrections, some pretty severe.
A bear market just doesn’t seem possible, does it ?    Well, none of those in the past have either.
……………………………………………………………………………….
Resistance:  DJIA: 28,487; SPX: 3,438; COMP: 11,438; QQQ: 282
………………………………………………………………………………….
Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/7
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     258
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,225
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      115
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      535
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:   1,460
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      425
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:     209
Key near-term resistance: The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – down one day on news, up the next.  RESISTANCE STARTS: FB:259*; AMZN:3,215; AAPL: 116*; NFLX: 540*; GOOG: 1,470*; TSLA: 429; MSFT: 209*        * Update
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Wednesday October 7, 2020  (DJIA: 27,772) “Two More Months of This ! Raise Cash”
A human wrecking ball !
     Trump must go before he wrecks the whole store.  Too much is at stake. The do-nothing Senate must show up. The U.S. House has passed 395 bills that Republican Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell, refuses to even bring to the floor.
This is unparalleled  dysfunction. This is what brings nations down.
Unthinkable as it may be in the Hamptons, this political blundering is what brings stock markets down.
This senseless mayhem at the top levels of our government cuts to the core of the foundation of  stability across the board.  Undermine the core and it all goes south, including the stock market.
As so many people and businesses suffer, the stock market is the last man standing.  As soon  a few big hitters stop buying, it all crumbles.
In a speech to the NABE yesterday, Fed Chair Powell urged Congress to pass another stimulus bill, saying the economic recovery faces a “longer than expected slog back to full recovery.
Trump’s response was to tweet to his team to stop negotiating with congressional Democrats on a stimulus until after the election, when he planned a “major stimulus bill” ……if he wins the election.
       The stock market plunged in response.
The message is obvious, vote for me, and you’ll get your stimulus.               Is this happening in our country ?    Is this the SELL signal that has threatened to take the market down 35%-45%, because we have a deranged president who will be in office for three more months, God forbid another four years ?
It shouldn’t  matter what one’s politics are.  This is just another indication  that the strongest person in the whole world is delusional.
People are hurting, businesses on the edge, and their president can only tweet nonsense.
BOTTOM LINE:
      It means, as a nation, the economy and Stock market is  on the edge. It means at any time, we could see BIG money STOP BUYING and create a vacuum that no one is willing to fill – 2020 Flash Crash #2.
Algos are in there buying this morning, as if nothing is happening to our country.
Resistance starts:
DJIA: 28,125
S&P 500:3,398
Nasdaq Comp.: 11,265
QQQ: 279
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Tuesday  October 7, 2020 (DJIA:28,148)  “Street Now Favors Biden ?”

This has become such a news sensitive market jerking one way, than another like a drunk line dancer.
      Are shorts being chased once again, if so, is it because the Street is worried that Trump will  lose re-election, or is it worried he will win ?
      After four years, the Street may opt for sanity, an end to the rape and pillage of our democratic republic and the daily effort to divide us as Americans.
       Never has the value of  the “rule of law”  been more evident, the importance of truthfulness vs. daily lying and optics.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE STOCK MARKET ?
So far – nothing.  There is something about risk the Street doesn’t get, spoiled by 11 years of economic expansion and bull market interrupted briefly this year for a COVOID moment.
Rigid buy-only algos have  driven stock prices far beyond realistic levels, levels not seen in a hundred years.
What will trigger a reality check ?   How about a touch of acrophobia, or FOMO – not fear of missing out on a buying opportunity, but fear of missing a selling opportunity before the big  flush.”
BOTTOM LINE:
The bear market that started in February was over in a couple months, juiced by unprecedented Fed and Congressional stimulus, which triggered a sharp rebound in the economy possibly enough to cause the  NBER to announce the recession is over in a month or two.
So much damage has been done by COVID and the necessary response to COVID, and now we are seeing a rebound in COVID infections  as Flu season begins – a double-dip recession ?
No way !     Really ?   How about recessions in Jan. 1980 – July 1980 and July 1981 – Nov. 1982.
At some point, the charade will end – no more hype by the Fed, the Administration and Street. That’s when the stock market will thumb its nose at the algos and head south for the winter.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will present his position on the economy and trade  today.  He is mainly responsible for stock market bubble #1 Jan.2019 – Feb. 2020, and bubble #2 – March 2020 to the present.
Appointed to his prestigious office by President Trump, it can be assumed he will  attempt to inflate the bubble further.

Monday October 6, 20920 (DJIA: 27,682) “Will Covid Surge Impact a Struggling Economy”
What to do: Decide your tolerance for risk and raise the amount of cash necessary to cover it….and don’t worry about what other investors are doing, don’t listen to the boasts about their scores.– stay with your plan. The new normal is the flash crash, a swift plunge of 10%  12%.  So far, most have recovered within a reasonable amount of time – don’t count on that happening next time.

Why didn’t the market take a bigger hit Friday ?  Probably because so much of the trading is computerized (algorithms) and what happened Friday isn’t plugged into the algos’ programming – the difference between a computer and the human brain.
I expect a stimulus bill of $2.0 trillion before Nov. 3 (of course).  I think it is built into the market’s prices, but in truth, passage would confirm my belief that another wave of  unemployment, closings, bankruptcies, and another slump in business looms.
Possible, is an announcement by the NBER that the recession that started in February is over, owing to the sharp rebound in the economy from severely depressed levels earlier in the year.
Q3 GDP will be announced at  the end of October, and show a  rebound of more than 25% at an annual rate, but that is from depressed levels.  Close to 30 million Americans are on the unemployment rolls. While 857,000 jobs were added in September, that is down from 1.4 million added in August and 1.7 million in July.  Reportedly, more layoffs are planned for retail, airlines, financial services, and oil.
Consumer Confidence (current and future expectations) is rebounding sharply from severely depressed levels earlier in the year, but still below peaks hit prior to COVID-19.
But COVID is surging again in New York, California, Texas, Wisconsin, Florida and the upper mid-west, especially in states that are re-opened and students are returning to school..
Just about the time it appeared safe to step out to pre-COVID lifestyles, risk raises its ugly head.
BOTTOM LINE:
        Today’s rebound is suspect since the presidency is in question, and COVID is on the rampage again.  President Trump’s joyride-photo-op  yesterday raises questions about his stability.  Congress has not been kept in the loop on his condition, a serious risk to national security.  BIZZARE !
This kind of irresponsible, immature behavior has never been experienced with past presidents.   But like I noted above, the Street’s algos are not programmed for the dire risks such behavior poses. Maybe we won’t pay a price, however based on time-tested measures of value, stocks are historically overvalued.
        But the Street isn’t phased by outlandish domestic and international events.  That’s arrogance, and you know what that precedes.
…………………………………………………………………………
Near-term Resistance/support levels for the market indexes.
Resistance begins at: DJIA:27,900; S&P 500: 3,373; Nasdaq Comp.: 11,176
Support is: DJIA: 27,720; S&P 500: 3,355; Nasdaq Comp.: 11,110
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Follow up to last week’s projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/2
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     265
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,199
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      116
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      520
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:   1,486
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:     425
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:    210
Key near-term resistance:
FB:262*; AMZN:3,140; AAPL: 114*; NFLX: 507*; GOOG: 1,466*; TSLA: 420; MSFT: 207*        * Update
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                             
George Brooks
Investor’s first read.com
brooksie01@aol.com
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Short Squeeze in Techs – Potential for Plunge Rises

INVESTOR’S first read.com – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:28,586
S&P 500: 3,477
Nasdaq Comp.:11,579
Russell: 1,636
Monday October 12, 2020    8:53 a.m.
……………………………………..
brooksie01@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

November 15, 2019 (DJIA – 28,004)   I Called for a bear market to start in January, that the initial plunge would be 12%-18% – “straight down.” It started mid-February, dropped 16.3%, rallied then  plunged another 32.8%.
…………………………………………………..
January 20, 2020 (DJIA:29,348) My blog,  “INSANITY,” projected a bear market decline of  30% – 45%. The DJIA plunged 38.4% in 21 days.
………………………………………………….
With the DJIA at 18,591on March 24, I wrote that , while I see lower prices later in the year, I expect a big rally with the upside potential of DJIA 22,037 (S&P 500 : 2,617) – it went higher.
With the DJIA at 23,942 (S&P 500) on April 15, I
called for  an end to  rally, up 29% but well short of  today.   how far the rally extended.  On May 18, I began to warn of  Bubble #2
August 6, I headline “SELL” with DJIA at 27,201 (S&P 500:3,327). Another “Fed” bubble.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
This looks like  the second and final top in the recovery that started March 23 is underway. I still expect another stimulus package, so that may extend it.
It looks like a short squeeze in Techs and spike in the  rest of market, dangerous because a lot of investors will be fooled.
A MarketWatch headline Friday, “Goldman’s Abby Joseph Cohen Warns Over Considerable Market Downside” called attention to something I have warned about for over a year.
 The highly regarded market strategist told Bloomberg TV, “I am quite concerned that there could be considerable downside, depending on factors that we can’t fit into our models.”
The KEY here is her reference to “factors we can’t fit into our models.”
That’s the problem, that’s why the buy-only algos , which  have been in the drivers seat for years except  for  a 21-day flash crash in February/March, are not reflecting reality.
Her models, as well as many on the Streets, have not been programmed to factor in all the uncertainties and negatives looming out there well past election day.  The market’s action is grossly misleading. The market has been overvalued for more than a year, because the Street’s algos have not been programmed for what is happening.
Nothing in our past compares to what we are facing now. The prospect of an long contested election result, potential for bloodshed, and the potential for armed insurrection if our authoritarian president refuses to accept  loss and his ability to orchestrate division between Americans.
Michigan is an example, the foiled attempt to kidnap its Democratic governor by a well-armed militia group.
BOTTOM LINE:
This rally could be the death knell for the market’s rebound from the March lows.  I would like to think the recent strength reflects to possibility of a Democrat sweep in November, December, January or however long it takes to finalize the results, but the market’s extreme overvaluation suggests the need for a correction.
Looming out there is the potential for chaos, a dysfunctional government becoming extremely dysfunctional, an interruption of the basic day-in and day-out functioning of our government, a question about who is in charge.
That would chop the market off at the knees.
       With Cohen’s admission that her “models” cannot factor-in what is happening now, she is really suggesting that most of the models (algos)  can’t factor-in what is happening now and are giving us a false read on the market’s strength and  therefore vulnerability.
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Resistance:  DJIA: 28,651; SPX: 3,485; COMP: 11,47111,622; QQQ: 286
………………………………………………………………………………….
Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/7
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     264
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,285
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      117
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      538
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:   1,514
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      433
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:     215
Key near-term resistance: The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – down one day on news, up the next. It looks like we are seeing short covering in the techs, new buying risky. RESISTANCE STARTS: FB:279*; AMZN:3,361; AAPL: 125*; NFLX: 547*; GOOG: 1,547*; TSLA: 461; MSFT: 223*        * Update
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RECENT POSTS:
Friday October 9, 2020 (DJIA: 28,425) “Look For a Stimulus Expectation Spike Today”
With the Biden/Harris lead widening, is fear of a contested election fading ?  Is that why the market is pressing higher ?
Or, is it a stimulus package of $1.85 – $2.0 trillion ?
The latter makes sense, but nothing would surprise me about reversing the will of the people on November 3 and beyond.  Guns have to come off the street. What happened in Michigan  is un-American -That’s what happens in a banana republic.  That’s just one of many reasons Trump has to GO !
      No thinking American wants a lawless country, and that’s where this is headed. If we get there, reversal before unthinkable damage is done, is tough to achieve.
      There are times when politics matter. This is one of them. These are NOT conservatives, I would love to see the conservatives of yore return.
Many have swung over, like George Will, for example.
I think this economy is phony, stock market is phony and administration is phony. Something has to give – let’s start with overvalued stock prices.
BOTTOM LINE:
It helps to step back and examine how you are feeling about the market, not your real “gut,” but where your “fear level” is.  Is it safe to add to positions ?
Today,  my fear level is low, though my gut says be sure to have enough cash and sit close to the exit with  equity positions.
After all, the market snaps back after every correction, a stimulus is a good bet in a presidential election year, what’s there to worry about ?
A low fear level is a signal
to doubt your instincts. I am not sure I am explaining this well enough, we can be an indicator, if we are able to objectively sense our feeling.  Boasting about a great trade is a warning signal, as is jumping into another position immediately after a big score.
Plenty !   That’s the kind of complacency  that can precede a correction –   Getting on the right side of the market isn’t that easy.
BOTTOM LINE:
      Odds favor a spike in prices today or in a couple days followed by a correction. Whether that correction becomes a nasty setback depends on what news hits the market when it is ready for a rebound.
An announcement of another stimulus package could be the spike.
It’s just a little too quiet out there, i.e., just about the time  one thinks it is safe to load up on the latest hype – you find out it was a dumb idea.
We are in a “news whipsaw” now, so decisions based on the latest news is likely to be wrong.
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Resistance:  DJIA: 28,561; SPX: 3,460; COMP: 11,471; QQQ: 283
………………………………………………………………………………….
Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/7
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     264
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,190
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      115
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      532
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:   1,465
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      426
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:     210
Key near-term resistance: The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – down one day on news, up the next.  RESISTANCE STARTS: FB:272*; AMZN:3,197; AAPL: 115.50*; NFLX: 547*; GOOG: 1,513*; TSLA: 428; MSFT: 214*        * Update
This group has been struggling, though failure to extend the correction that started in early September may chase shorts, ergo one more spike.   There could be a quick trade here…..for the nimble, that is.
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Thursday October 8, 2020 (DJIA: 28,303) “Street Not Afraid of Biden/Harris”

The News whipsaw is back !   In short – buying or shorting the news in this market is treacherous, don’t try it.
Insanity – at the top ! after four years of this, I should not be surprised that in the Street is beginning to see a Biden victory as bullish.
Last night’s Harris/Pence debate iced the cake.

MarketWatch’s Mark DeCambre’s subhead yesterday was, “Is the Market Pricing in  a Democrat Sweep ?”
      Yes, it  would likely mean higher taxes for corporations they can handle it, their 40%  tax cut by   the “Tax Cut and Jobs Act” was over the top, especially since individuals only got in the neighborhood of a 1% cut, higher for big earners.
What a Democratic  clean sweep would mean is a return to predictability, the rule of law and  an end to the divisiveness coming down from the top. That alone is bullish.
Besides, the Street and corporate America have already  got what they wanted, a nice extension of Obama’s economic recovery and  bull market.
So a flip flop would make sense, it  just comes as a surprise to me for a Street that has been in the Trump camp for four years.
Like his Democrat predecessor,  Biden would inherit a mess. The rebuild of confidence, international ties, and economy would take time. The hard clean up work would take time, unpopular decisions would have to be made on trade, foreign relations, taxes and paying for infrastructure programs after so much has been spent on propping a failing economy up with stimulus  and  bailouts.
BOTTOM LINE:

Money can be made in late stage bull markets – the fever is up, appetites have been whetted, people are making money and they don’t want the party to end.
Regardless of who wins, a correction/bear market is imminent. They happen, and can come out of nowhere.
It appears the Street is betting on an economy that is totally impervious to a rebound in COVID on top of the onset of the flu season, however, that is drawing to an inside straight.
      A bear market will start when  the BIG money breaks ranks, stops buying and sells in size.
      Up to now, buyers on the dip have been rewarded and will continue to do so  until the dip before the next bear market.
But it really doesn’t seem possible, the market Has rebounded from dozens of corrections, some pretty severe.
A bear market just doesn’t seem possible, does it ?    Well, none of those in the past have either.
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Resistance:  DJIA: 28,487; SPX: 3,438; COMP: 11,438; QQQ: 282
………………………………………………………………………………….
Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/7
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     258
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,225
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      115
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      535
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:   1,460
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      425
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:     209
Key near-term resistance: The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – down one day on news, up the next.  RESISTANCE STARTS: FB:259*; AMZN:3,215; AAPL: 116*; NFLX: 540*; GOOG: 1,470*; TSLA: 429; MSFT: 209*        * Update
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Wednesday October 7, 2020  (DJIA: 27,772) “Two More Months of This ! Raise Cash”
A human wrecking ball !
     Trump must go before he wrecks the whole store.  Too much is at stake. The do-nothing Senate must show up. The U.S. House has passed 395 bills that Republican Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell, refuses to even bring to the floor.
This is unparalleled  dysfunction. This is what brings nations down.
Unthinkable as it may be in the Hamptons, this political blundering is what brings stock markets down.
This senseless mayhem at the top levels of our government cuts to the core of the foundation of  stability across the board.  Undermine the core and it all goes south, including the stock market.
As so many people and businesses suffer, the stock market is the last man standing.  As soon  a few big hitters stop buying, it all crumbles.
In a speech to the NABE yesterday, Fed Chair Powell urged Congress to pass another stimulus bill, saying the economic recovery faces a “longer than expected slog back to full recovery.
Trump’s response was to tweet to his team to stop negotiating with congressional Democrats on a stimulus until after the election, when he planned a “major stimulus bill” ……if he wins the election.
       The stock market plunged in response.
The message is obvious, vote for me, and you’ll get your stimulus.               Is this happening in our country ?    Is this the SELL signal that has threatened to take the market down 35%-45%, because we have a deranged president who will be in office for three more months, God forbid another four years ?
It shouldn’t  matter what one’s politics are.  This is just another indication  that the strongest person in the whole world is delusional.
People are hurting, businesses on the edge, and their president can only tweet nonsense.
BOTTOM LINE:
      It means, as a nation, the economy and Stock market is  on the edge. It means at any time, we could see BIG money STOP BUYING and create a vacuum that no one is willing to fill – 2020 Flash Crash #2.
Algos are in there buying this morning, as if nothing is happening to our country.
Resistance starts:
DJIA: 28,125
S&P 500:3,398
Nasdaq Comp.: 11,265
QQQ: 279
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Tuesday  October 7, 2020 (DJIA:28,148)  “Street Now Favors Biden ?”

This has become such a news sensitive market jerking one way, than another like a drunk line dancer.
      Are shorts being chased once again, if so, is it because the Street is worried that Trump will  lose re-election, or is it worried he will win ?
      After four years, the Street may opt for sanity, an end to the rape and pillage of our democratic republic and the daily effort to divide us as Americans.
       Never has the value of  the “rule of law”  been more evident, the importance of truthfulness vs. daily lying and optics.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE STOCK MARKET ?
So far – nothing.  There is something about risk the Street doesn’t get, spoiled by 11 years of economic expansion and bull market interrupted briefly this year for a COVOID moment.
Rigid buy-only algos have  driven stock prices far beyond realistic levels, levels not seen in a hundred years.
What will trigger a reality check ?   How about a touch of acrophobia, or FOMO – not fear of missing out on a buying opportunity, but fear of missing a selling opportunity before the big  flush.”
BOTTOM LINE:
The bear market that started in February was over in a couple months, juiced by unprecedented Fed and Congressional stimulus, which triggered a sharp rebound in the economy possibly enough to cause the  NBER to announce the recession is over in a month or two.
So much damage has been done by COVID and the necessary response to COVID, and now we are seeing a rebound in COVID infections  as Flu season begins – a double-dip recession ?
No way !     Really ?   How about recessions in Jan. 1980 – July 1980 and July 1981 – Nov. 1982.
At some point, the charade will end – no more hype by the Fed, the Administration and Street. That’s when the stock market will thumb its nose at the algos and head south for the winter.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will present his position on the economy and trade  today.  He is mainly responsible for stock market bubble #1 Jan.2019 – Feb. 2020, and bubble #2 – March 2020 to the present.
Appointed to his prestigious office by President Trump, it can be assumed he will  attempt to inflate the bubble further.

Monday October 6, 20920 (DJIA: 27,682) “Will Covid Surge Impact a Struggling Economy”
What to do: Decide your tolerance for risk and raise the amount of cash necessary to cover it….and don’t worry about what other investors are doing, don’t listen to the boasts about their scores.– stay with your plan. The new normal is the flash crash, a swift plunge of 10%  12%.  So far, most have recovered within a reasonable amount of time – don’t count on that happening next time.

Why didn’t the market take a bigger hit Friday ?  Probably because so much of the trading is computerized (algorithms) and what happened Friday isn’t plugged into the algos’ programming – the difference between a computer and the human brain.
I expect a stimulus bill of $2.0 trillion before Nov. 3 (of course).  I think it is built into the market’s prices, but in truth, passage would confirm my belief that another wave of  unemployment, closings, bankruptcies, and another slump in business looms.
Possible, is an announcement by the NBER that the recession that started in February is over, owing to the sharp rebound in the economy from severely depressed levels earlier in the year.
Q3 GDP will be announced at  the end of October, and show a  rebound of more than 25% at an annual rate, but that is from depressed levels.  Close to 30 million Americans are on the unemployment rolls. While 857,000 jobs were added in September, that is down from 1.4 million added in August and 1.7 million in July.  Reportedly, more layoffs are planned for retail, airlines, financial services, and oil.
Consumer Confidence (current and future expectations) is rebounding sharply from severely depressed levels earlier in the year, but still below peaks hit prior to COVID-19.
But COVID is surging again in New York, California, Texas, Wisconsin, Florida and the upper mid-west, especially in states that are re-opened and students are returning to school..
Just about the time it appeared safe to step out to pre-COVID lifestyles, risk raises its ugly head.
BOTTOM LINE:
        Today’s rebound is suspect since the presidency is in question, and COVID is on the rampage again.  President Trump’s joyride-photo-op  yesterday raises questions about his stability.  Congress has not been kept in the loop on his condition, a serious risk to national security.  BIZZARE !
This kind of irresponsible, immature behavior has never been experienced with past presidents.   But like I noted above, the Street’s algos are not programmed for the dire risks such behavior poses. Maybe we won’t pay a price, however based on time-tested measures of value, stocks are historically overvalued.
        But the Street isn’t phased by outlandish domestic and international events.  That’s arrogance, and you know what that precedes.
…………………………………………………………………………
Near-term Resistance/support levels for the market indexes.
Resistance begins at: DJIA:27,900; S&P 500: 3,373; Nasdaq Comp.: 11,176
Support is: DJIA: 27,720; S&P 500: 3,355; Nasdaq Comp.: 11,110
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Follow up to last week’s projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/2
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     265
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,199
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      116
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      520
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:   1,486
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:     425
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:    210
Key near-term resistance:
FB:262*; AMZN:3,140; AAPL: 114*; NFLX: 507*; GOOG: 1,466*; TSLA: 420; MSFT: 207*        * Update

 

Friday October 2, 2020 (DJIA: 27,816) “Trump Has COVID – Wall Street Selling”
President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump  have tested positive for COVID-19.  Futures are down sharply.  Ironic !
This is a major uncertainty, not like the assassination of President John Kennedy, but an uncertainty of a much different kind.  Coming 31 days before the election, the question rises, does he resign, keep campaigning, or be hospitalized with the outcome uncertain.
WHAT TO EXPECT:
The assassination of President John Kennedy was final, Trump’s infection with COVID will be a lingering uncertainty with Vice President Pence taking charge temporarily or permanently depending.
With Kennedy, the market found a level that discounted the event. However, expect a probing volatility going forward this time with rallies and sell-offs in response to news of Trump’s condition. I was a broker in a small office in Pennsylvania  when Kennedy was assassinated, taking calls from panicking investors, many not even my own.  “Sell Everything, I heard”
I expect a sell off at the open, a rally around midday as the Street thinks this won’t be so bad, then a plunge into the close as we head into the weekend.
Generally, I see the DJIA  dropping to 27,140 by 10:00 a.m., rallying to 27,420 at mid-day then a sell-off to 26,700 – 26,800 at the close.
Near-term RISK is:  DJIA: 25,000; S&P 500: 3,000; Nasdaq Comp.: 9,750.
If he wasn’t so untruthful during his tenure, there wouldn’t be any question that this is a ploy to  curry favor and votes.   Callous  of me ?
        No one has been more callous over the last 5 years than Trump, and especially this year as tens of thousands of AMERICANS have died unnecessarily due to his denial that COVID-19 needed immediate attention early in 2020.
The Street is hoping for another stimulus, and I think it will get one, probably running around $2.0 trillion. Democrats were pushing for a much higher one ($3.5 T), but will settle for less. The Republicans need to appease what few real conservatives are left and clearly cannot afford not to go along with one.
What does all this say ?
IMHO, it says our economy will run out of steam without one.
While the economy had rebounded sharply in recent months, it did so from a severely depressed level and with the help of unprecedented stimulus.
Would all this stimulus be taking place if this wasn’t a presidential election year  ?
BOTTOM LINE:
The futures point to a big sell-off at the open.  That’s what  a sudden uncertainty does to the stock market, and especially one as overvalued as this one. Anyone who has heeded my warnings to raise cash will:
1) not get hurt as much as if they were fully invested.
2) will be in a position to buy in at lower prices.
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Thursday October 1, 2020 (DJIA: 27,781) “Stimulus Bill $2.0Trillion Likely – Sell the News”
The economy is still rebounding from a severely depressed Q2.  This is expected, the key will be Q4 and beyond, since COVID-19 is spiking again after crushing the economy.   Damage will take a long time to repair.
The market was up yesterday mostly in response to improving economic numbers. ADP Employment: 749,000 jobs added vs. 650,000 projected; Chicago Business Activity index at 62.4, better than expected; Q2 GDP down 31.4% (ann.rate) an improvement from the last est. of -31.7%.  Q3 expected to be a plus 25 – 30% and reported in late October; Pending Home Sales up 8.8%.
I expect  a $2.0 trillion stimulus bill will be passed within two weeks. It’s a two-edged sword.  The Administration wants credit for it, but does not want to help the Democrats who will likely take over the White House, possibly the Senate.
Most likely, the stimulus bill is already built  into stock prices and a sell-off would follow its announcement.
     I personally believe Vice President Biden thrashed President Trump in the Tuesday debate.  Confirmation bias will influence some voters to conclude otherwise.
So far, I am wrong about the Street’s wish list. Maybe yesterday’s solid jump was a relief that Biden will win and the dangerously  unpredictable  President is on his way out.  Afterall, what else can the Street and corporate America get after a huge, unjustified tax cut and the gutting of regs, many of which were originally designed to protect individuals and improve quality of life.
Maybe they will throw Trump under the bus now that they have what they want.
BOTTOM LINE:
    The market indexes will press higher today, but are challenged to  recover all that has been lost since their peak on September 2 at DJIA: 29,199; S&P 500: 3,588; Nasdaq Comp.: 10,913.
Resistance begins at:  DJIA: 28,077; S&P 500: 3,401; Nasdaq Comp.: 11,317
Support begins at        DJIA: 27,677; S&P 500: 3,349; Nasdaq Comp.: 11,147
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Wednesday  September 30, 2020 (DJIA: 27,542) “Trump Got His Fat Ass Kicked – Now That’s Bullish !”
Looks like a lower market at the open, after Vice President Joe Biden was a far better debater of issues last night than President Trump who did a pretty good job of reminding viewers how rude and uninformed he is.
Anyone paying attention will accept the country (world) cannot afford four more years of blundering. As noted below, the stock market is up as a result of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s  actions in 2019 and this year.  A Trump appointee to the prestigious job, Powell has assured Trump the stock market was strong, or at least so far.
Actually a Biden win would be bullish if it weren’t for the fact the stock market is so overvalued to begin with.  Decency, truthfulness and respect for the office of President of the United States would be restored, our global defenses would  be fortified, rioting curtailed, healthcare expanded, and the playing field across the board leveled.
Most important, our democratic republic would no longer be under siege here and abroad as the rule of law becomes priority one.
Powell, a Trump Toady
      I have ranked on Fed Chair Jerome Powell as a Trump “Toady,” since January 2019, when he very subtly began hyping the market following Q4’s 20% plunge and near miss on a recession, clearly not something Republicans wanted prior to a key election year. Less subtle were interest three rate cuts in 2019, two in 2020  and a pledge in June for zero rates going forward  indefinitely.
Axios Markets’ Dion Rabouin confirmed my feelings yesterday, noting “the man behind booming U.S. asset prices is really Jerome Powell.  Rabouin goes on to say, “Powell’s decision to roll interest rates back to zero and provide markets with $3 trillion in liquidity has kept indexes hitting  record highs even as close to 30 million Americans collect unemployment benefits.”  According to some, Powell has violated the Fed’s founding charter, the Federal Reserve Act effectively nationalizing the market  for  government and corporate bonds.
Prior to the 21-day, 35% plunge in stock prices in February/March, Powell’s rhetoric and interest rate cuts triggered Bubble #1 (January 2019 – 2020, and since that flash crash has created Bubble #2 from February 2020 to September 3, 2020.
BOTTOM LINE:
One of  the Fed’s key responsibilities is to contain inflation. Since  there hasn’t been meaningful inflation for 38 years, it appears the Fed must justify its existence by managing stock and bond prices.
However, by doing so, it is artificially creating levels that are unjustified, which sets up a flash crash when something happens or the reality of overvalued prices triggers a sudden adjustment to levels that more realistically represent real values.
     Everyone is best served if the Fed finds something else to do that doesn’t set markets up for plunges that devastate investors.
I have said on a number of occasions, This is a phony economy, a phony stock market and a phony Administration. What is really bullish is, we have a chance to change that on November 3rd  with a Biden victory.
      Intitially, the stock market will need to find a more realistic level, valuewise.
It will be “roll up your sleeves time,” as competent people will be appointed to unfilled key positions, steps to address climate change and fortify our international business and defense relationships renewed, and  the country united  between people and a common goal.
That would be “BULLISH,” that’s a policy that would have legs well into the future.
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Follow up to last week’s projection for leading growth stocks:
INITIAL RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good quick-hit trading opportunities, but they won’t hold next time down without stimulus.
Price: Close 9/16
                    RISK  Low  Mon. 9/27
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251         244     Close:     262
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907       2,871    Close:  3,144
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103         103    Close:      114
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437         466     Close:     493
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451       1,406   Close:  1,469
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377          407    Close:     419
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191          196     Close:    207
Key near-term resistance: FB:262; AMZN:3,251*; AAPL: 118; NFLX: 497; GOOG: 1,486; TSLA: 424; MSFT: 213. Without a breakthrough on COVID or a stimulus, these levels won’t hold.* Update
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George Brooks
Investor’s first read.com
brooksie01@aol.com
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Look For a “Stimulus-Expectation” Spike Today

INVESTOR’S first read.com – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:28,425
S&P 500: 3,446
Nasdaq Comp.:11,420
Russell: 1,628
Friday October 9, 2020    9:04 a.m.
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brooksie01@aol.com
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November 15, 2019 (DJIA – 28,004)   I Called for a bear market to start in January, that the initial plunge would be 12%-18% – “straight down.” It started mid-February, dropped 16.3%, rallied then  plunged another 32.8%.
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January 20, 2020 (DJIA:29,348) My blog,  “INSANITY,” projected a bear market decline of  30% – 45%. The DJIA plunged 38.4% in 21 days.
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With the DJIA at 18,591on March 24, I wrote that , while I see lower prices later in the year, I expect a big rally with the upside potential of DJIA 22,037 (S&P 500 : 2,617) – it went higher.
With the DJIA at 23,942 (S&P 500) on April 15, I
called for  an end to  rally, up 29% but well short of  today.   how far the rally extended.  On May 18, I began to warn of  Bubble #2
August 6, I headline “SELL” with DJIA at 27,201 (S&P 500:3,327). Another “Fed” bubble.
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With the Biden/Harris lead widening, is fear of a contested election fading ?  Is that why the market is pressing higher ?
Or, is it a stimulus package of $1.85 – $2.0 trillion ?
The latter makes sense, but nothing would surprise me about reversing the will of the people on November 3 and beyond.  Guns have to come off the street. What happened in Michigan  is un-American -That’s what happens in a banana republic.  That’s just one of many reasons Trump has to GO !
      No thinking American wants a lawless country, and that’s where this is headed. If we get there, reversal before unthinkable damage is done, is tough to achieve.
      There are times when politics matter. This is one of them. These are NOT conservatives, I would love to see the conservatives of yore return.
Many have swung over, like George Will, for example.
I think this economy is phony, stock market is phony and administration is phony. Something has to give – let’s start with overvalued stock prices.
BOTTOM LINE:
It helps to step back and examine how you are feeling about the market, not your real “gut,” but where your “fear level” is.  Is it safe to add to positions ?
Today,  my fear level is low, though my gut says be sure to have enough cash and sit close to the exit with  equity positions.
After all, the market snaps back after every correction, a stimulus is a good bet in a presidential election year, what’s there to worry about ?
A low fear level is a signal
to doubt your instincts. I am not sure I am explaining this well enough, we can be an indicator, if we are able to objectively sense our feeling.  Boasting about a great trade is a warning signal, as is jumping into another position immediately after a big score.
Plenty !   That’s the kind of complacency  that can precede a correction –   Getting on the right side of the market isn’t that easy.
BOTTOM LINE:
      Odds favor a spike in prices today or in a couple days followed by a correction. Whether that correction becomes a nasty setback depends on what news hits the market when it is ready for a rebound.
An announcement of another stimulus package could be the spike.
It’s just a little too quiet out there, i.e., just about the time  one thinks it is safe to load up on the latest hype – you find out it was a dumb idea.
We are in a “news whipsaw” now, so decisions based on the latest news is likely to be wrong.
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Resistance:  DJIA: 28,561; SPX: 3,460; COMP: 11,471; QQQ: 283
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Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/7
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     264
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,190
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      115
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      532
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:   1,465
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      426
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:     210
Key near-term resistance: The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – down one day on news, up the next.  RESISTANCE STARTS: FB:272*; AMZN:3,197; AAPL: 115.50*; NFLX: 547*; GOOG: 1,513*; TSLA: 428; MSFT: 214*        * Update
This group has been struggling, though failure to extend the correction that started in early September may chase shorts, ergo one more spike.   There could be a quick trade here…..for the nimble, that is.
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RECENT POSTS:
Thursday October 8, 2020 (DJIA: 28,303) “Street Not Afraid of Biden/Harris”

The News whipsaw is back !   In short – buying or shorting the news in this market is treacherous, don’t try it.
Insanity – at the top ! after four years of this, I should not be surprised that in the Street is beginning to see a Biden victory as bullish.
Last night’s Harris/Pence debate iced the cake.

MarketWatch’s Mark DeCambre’s subhead yesterday was, “Is the Market Pricing in  a Democrat Sweep ?”
      Yes, it  would likely mean higher taxes for corporations they can handle it, their 40%  tax cut by   the “Tax Cut and Jobs Act” was over the top, especially since individuals only got in the neighborhood of a 1% cut, higher for big earners.
What a Democratic  clean sweep would mean is a return to predictability, the rule of law and  an end to the divisiveness coming down from the top. That alone is bullish.
Besides, the Street and corporate America have already  got what they wanted, a nice extension of Obama’s economic recovery and  bull market.
So a flip flop would make sense, it  just comes as a surprise to me for a Street that has been in the Trump camp for four years.
Like his Democrat predecessor,  Biden would inherit a mess. The rebuild of confidence, international ties, and economy would take time. The hard clean up work would take time, unpopular decisions would have to be made on trade, foreign relations, taxes and paying for infrastructure programs after so much has been spent on propping a failing economy up with stimulus  and  bailouts.
BOTTOM LINE:

Money can be made in late stage bull markets – the fever is up, appetites have been whetted, people are making money and they don’t want the party to end.
Regardless of who wins, a correction/bear market is imminent. They happen, and can come out of nowhere.
It appears the Street is betting on an economy that is totally impervious to a rebound in COVID on top of the onset of the flu season, however, that is drawing to an inside straight.
      A bear market will start when  the BIG money breaks ranks, stops buying and sells in size.
      Up to now, buyers on the dip have been rewarded and will continue to do so  until the dip before the next bear market.
But it really doesn’t seem possible, the market Has rebounded from dozens of corrections, some pretty severe.
A bear market just doesn’t seem possible, does it ?    Well, none of those in the past have either.
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Resistance:  DJIA: 28,487; SPX: 3,438; COMP: 11,438; QQQ: 282
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Follow up projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/7
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     258
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,225
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      115
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      535
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:   1,460
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:      425
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:     209
Key near-term resistance: The news sensitivity of this market complicates picking support and resistance levels – down one day on news, up the next.  RESISTANCE STARTS: FB:259*; AMZN:3,215; AAPL: 116*; NFLX: 540*; GOOG: 1,470*; TSLA: 429; MSFT: 209*        * Update
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Wednesday October 7, 2020  (DJIA: 27,772) “Two More Months of This ! Raise Cash”
A human wrecking ball !
     Trump must go before he wrecks the whole store.  Too much is at stake. The do-nothing Senate must show up. The U.S. House has passed 395 bills that Republican Senate Majority Leader, Mitch McConnell, refuses to even bring to the floor.
This is unparalleled  dysfunction. This is what brings nations down.
Unthinkable as it may be in the Hamptons, this political blundering is what brings stock markets down.
This senseless mayhem at the top levels of our government cuts to the core of the foundation of  stability across the board.  Undermine the core and it all goes south, including the stock market.
As so many people and businesses suffer, the stock market is the last man standing.  As soon  a few big hitters stop buying, it all crumbles.
In a speech to the NABE yesterday, Fed Chair Powell urged Congress to pass another stimulus bill, saying the economic recovery faces a “longer than expected slog back to full recovery.
Trump’s response was to tweet to his team to stop negotiating with congressional Democrats on a stimulus until after the election, when he planned a “major stimulus bill” ……if he wins the election.
       The stock market plunged in response.
The message is obvious, vote for me, and you’ll get your stimulus.               Is this happening in our country ?    Is this the SELL signal that has threatened to take the market down 35%-45%, because we have a deranged president who will be in office for three more months, God forbid another four years ?
It shouldn’t  matter what one’s politics are.  This is just another indication  that the strongest person in the whole world is delusional.
People are hurting, businesses on the edge, and their president can only tweet nonsense.
BOTTOM LINE:
      It means, as a nation, the economy and Stock market is  on the edge. It means at any time, we could see BIG money STOP BUYING and create a vacuum that no one is willing to fill – 2020 Flash Crash #2.
Algos are in there buying this morning, as if nothing is happening to our country.
Resistance starts:
DJIA: 28,125
S&P 500:3,398
Nasdaq Comp.: 11,265
QQQ: 279
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Tuesday  October 7, 2020 (DJIA:28,148)  “Street Now Favors Biden ?”

This has become such a news sensitive market jerking one way, than another like a drunk line dancer.
      Are shorts being chased once again, if so, is it because the Street is worried that Trump will  lose re-election, or is it worried he will win ?
      After four years, the Street may opt for sanity, an end to the rape and pillage of our democratic republic and the daily effort to divide us as Americans.
       Never has the value of  the “rule of law”  been more evident, the importance of truthfulness vs. daily lying and optics.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE STOCK MARKET ?
So far – nothing.  There is something about risk the Street doesn’t get, spoiled by 11 years of economic expansion and bull market interrupted briefly this year for a COVOID moment.
Rigid buy-only algos have  driven stock prices far beyond realistic levels, levels not seen in a hundred years.
What will trigger a reality check ?   How about a touch of acrophobia, or FOMO – not fear of missing out on a buying opportunity, but fear of missing a selling opportunity before the big  flush.”
BOTTOM LINE:
The bear market that started in February was over in a couple months, juiced by unprecedented Fed and Congressional stimulus, which triggered a sharp rebound in the economy possibly enough to cause the  NBER to announce the recession is over in a month or two.
So much damage has been done by COVID and the necessary response to COVID, and now we are seeing a rebound in COVID infections  as Flu season begins – a double-dip recession ?
No way !     Really ?   How about recessions in Jan. 1980 – July 1980 and July 1981 – Nov. 1982.
At some point, the charade will end – no more hype by the Fed, the Administration and Street. That’s when the stock market will thumb its nose at the algos and head south for the winter.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will present his position on the economy and trade  today.  He is mainly responsible for stock market bubble #1 Jan.2019 – Feb. 2020, and bubble #2 – March 2020 to the present.
Appointed to his prestigious office by President Trump, it can be assumed he will  attempt to inflate the bubble further.

Monday October 6, 20920 (DJIA: 27,682) “Will Covid Surge Impact a Struggling Economy”
What to do: Decide your tolerance for risk and raise the amount of cash necessary to cover it….and don’t worry about what other investors are doing, don’t listen to the boasts about their scores.– stay with your plan. The new normal is the flash crash, a swift plunge of 10%  12%.  So far, most have recovered within a reasonable amount of time – don’t count on that happening next time.

Why didn’t the market take a bigger hit Friday ?  Probably because so much of the trading is computerized (algorithms) and what happened Friday isn’t plugged into the algos’ programming – the difference between a computer and the human brain.
I expect a stimulus bill of $2.0 trillion before Nov. 3 (of course).  I think it is built into the market’s prices, but in truth, passage would confirm my belief that another wave of  unemployment, closings, bankruptcies, and another slump in business looms.
Possible, is an announcement by the NBER that the recession that started in February is over, owing to the sharp rebound in the economy from severely depressed levels earlier in the year.
Q3 GDP will be announced at  the end of October, and show a  rebound of more than 25% at an annual rate, but that is from depressed levels.  Close to 30 million Americans are on the unemployment rolls. While 857,000 jobs were added in September, that is down from 1.4 million added in August and 1.7 million in July.  Reportedly, more layoffs are planned for retail, airlines, financial services, and oil.
Consumer Confidence (current and future expectations) is rebounding sharply from severely depressed levels earlier in the year, but still below peaks hit prior to COVID-19.
But COVID is surging again in New York, California, Texas, Wisconsin, Florida and the upper mid-west, especially in states that are re-opened and students are returning to school..
Just about the time it appeared safe to step out to pre-COVID lifestyles, risk raises its ugly head.
BOTTOM LINE:
        Today’s rebound is suspect since the presidency is in question, and COVID is on the rampage again.  President Trump’s joyride-photo-op  yesterday raises questions about his stability.  Congress has not been kept in the loop on his condition, a serious risk to national security.  BIZZARE !
This kind of irresponsible, immature behavior has never been experienced with past presidents.   But like I noted above, the Street’s algos are not programmed for the dire risks such behavior poses. Maybe we won’t pay a price, however based on time-tested measures of value, stocks are historically overvalued.
        But the Street isn’t phased by outlandish domestic and international events.  That’s arrogance, and you know what that precedes.
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Near-term Resistance/support levels for the market indexes.
Resistance begins at: DJIA:27,900; S&P 500: 3,373; Nasdaq Comp.: 11,176
Support is: DJIA: 27,720; S&P 500: 3,355; Nasdaq Comp.: 11,110
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Follow up to last week’s projection for leading growth stocks:   RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good trading opportunities.
Price: Close 9/16
          Proj. Support       Low       10/2
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251                      244       Close:     265
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907                    2,871      Close:  3,199
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103                       103      Close:      116
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437                      466       Close:      520
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451                   1,406       Close:   1,486
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377                       407      Close:     425
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191                       196       Close:    210
Key near-term resistance:
FB:262*; AMZN:3,140; AAPL: 114*; NFLX: 507*; GOOG: 1,466*; TSLA: 420; MSFT: 207*        * Update

 

Friday October 2, 2020 (DJIA: 27,816) “Trump Has COVID – Wall Street Selling”
President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump  have tested positive for COVID-19.  Futures are down sharply.  Ironic !
This is a major uncertainty, not like the assassination of President John Kennedy, but an uncertainty of a much different kind.  Coming 31 days before the election, the question rises, does he resign, keep campaigning, or be hospitalized with the outcome uncertain.
WHAT TO EXPECT:
The assassination of President John Kennedy was final, Trump’s infection with COVID will be a lingering uncertainty with Vice President Pence taking charge temporarily or permanently depending.
With Kennedy, the market found a level that discounted the event. However, expect a probing volatility going forward this time with rallies and sell-offs in response to news of Trump’s condition. I was a broker in a small office in Pennsylvania  when Kennedy was assassinated, taking calls from panicking investors, many not even my own.  “Sell Everything, I heard”
I expect a sell off at the open, a rally around midday as the Street thinks this won’t be so bad, then a plunge into the close as we head into the weekend.
Generally, I see the DJIA  dropping to 27,140 by 10:00 a.m., rallying to 27,420 at mid-day then a sell-off to 26,700 – 26,800 at the close.
Near-term RISK is:  DJIA: 25,000; S&P 500: 3,000; Nasdaq Comp.: 9,750.
If he wasn’t so untruthful during his tenure, there wouldn’t be any question that this is a ploy to  curry favor and votes.   Callous  of me ?
        No one has been more callous over the last 5 years than Trump, and especially this year as tens of thousands of AMERICANS have died unnecessarily due to his denial that COVID-19 needed immediate attention early in 2020.
The Street is hoping for another stimulus, and I think it will get one, probably running around $2.0 trillion. Democrats were pushing for a much higher one ($3.5 T), but will settle for less. The Republicans need to appease what few real conservatives are left and clearly cannot afford not to go along with one.
What does all this say ?
IMHO, it says our economy will run out of steam without one.
While the economy had rebounded sharply in recent months, it did so from a severely depressed level and with the help of unprecedented stimulus.
Would all this stimulus be taking place if this wasn’t a presidential election year  ?
BOTTOM LINE:
The futures point to a big sell-off at the open.  That’s what  a sudden uncertainty does to the stock market, and especially one as overvalued as this one. Anyone who has heeded my warnings to raise cash will:
1) not get hurt as much as if they were fully invested.
2) will be in a position to buy in at lower prices.
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Thursday October 1, 2020 (DJIA: 27,781) “Stimulus Bill $2.0Trillion Likely – Sell the News”
The economy is still rebounding from a severely depressed Q2.  This is expected, the key will be Q4 and beyond, since COVID-19 is spiking again after crushing the economy.   Damage will take a long time to repair.
The market was up yesterday mostly in response to improving economic numbers. ADP Employment: 749,000 jobs added vs. 650,000 projected; Chicago Business Activity index at 62.4, better than expected; Q2 GDP down 31.4% (ann.rate) an improvement from the last est. of -31.7%.  Q3 expected to be a plus 25 – 30% and reported in late October; Pending Home Sales up 8.8%.
I expect  a $2.0 trillion stimulus bill will be passed within two weeks. It’s a two-edged sword.  The Administration wants credit for it, but does not want to help the Democrats who will likely take over the White House, possibly the Senate.
Most likely, the stimulus bill is already built  into stock prices and a sell-off would follow its announcement.
     I personally believe Vice President Biden thrashed President Trump in the Tuesday debate.  Confirmation bias will influence some voters to conclude otherwise.
So far, I am wrong about the Street’s wish list. Maybe yesterday’s solid jump was a relief that Biden will win and the dangerously  unpredictable  President is on his way out.  Afterall, what else can the Street and corporate America get after a huge, unjustified tax cut and the gutting of regs, many of which were originally designed to protect individuals and improve quality of life.
Maybe they will throw Trump under the bus now that they have what they want.
BOTTOM LINE:
    The market indexes will press higher today, but are challenged to  recover all that has been lost since their peak on September 2 at DJIA: 29,199; S&P 500: 3,588; Nasdaq Comp.: 10,913.
Resistance begins at:  DJIA: 28,077; S&P 500: 3,401; Nasdaq Comp.: 11,317
Support begins at        DJIA: 27,677; S&P 500: 3,349; Nasdaq Comp.: 11,147
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Wednesday  September 30, 2020 (DJIA: 27,542) “Trump Got His Fat Ass Kicked – Now That’s Bullish !”
Looks like a lower market at the open, after Vice President Joe Biden was a far better debater of issues last night than President Trump who did a pretty good job of reminding viewers how rude and uninformed he is.
Anyone paying attention will accept the country (world) cannot afford four more years of blundering. As noted below, the stock market is up as a result of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s  actions in 2019 and this year.  A Trump appointee to the prestigious job, Powell has assured Trump the stock market was strong, or at least so far.
Actually a Biden win would be bullish if it weren’t for the fact the stock market is so overvalued to begin with.  Decency, truthfulness and respect for the office of President of the United States would be restored, our global defenses would  be fortified, rioting curtailed, healthcare expanded, and the playing field across the board leveled.
Most important, our democratic republic would no longer be under siege here and abroad as the rule of law becomes priority one.
Powell, a Trump Toady
      I have ranked on Fed Chair Jerome Powell as a Trump “Toady,” since January 2019, when he very subtly began hyping the market following Q4’s 20% plunge and near miss on a recession, clearly not something Republicans wanted prior to a key election year. Less subtle were interest three rate cuts in 2019, two in 2020  and a pledge in June for zero rates going forward  indefinitely.
Axios Markets’ Dion Rabouin confirmed my feelings yesterday, noting “the man behind booming U.S. asset prices is really Jerome Powell.  Rabouin goes on to say, “Powell’s decision to roll interest rates back to zero and provide markets with $3 trillion in liquidity has kept indexes hitting  record highs even as close to 30 million Americans collect unemployment benefits.”  According to some, Powell has violated the Fed’s founding charter, the Federal Reserve Act effectively nationalizing the market  for  government and corporate bonds.
Prior to the 21-day, 35% plunge in stock prices in February/March, Powell’s rhetoric and interest rate cuts triggered Bubble #1 (January 2019 – 2020, and since that flash crash has created Bubble #2 from February 2020 to September 3, 2020.
BOTTOM LINE:
One of  the Fed’s key responsibilities is to contain inflation. Since  there hasn’t been meaningful inflation for 38 years, it appears the Fed must justify its existence by managing stock and bond prices.
However, by doing so, it is artificially creating levels that are unjustified, which sets up a flash crash when something happens or the reality of overvalued prices triggers a sudden adjustment to levels that more realistically represent real values.
     Everyone is best served if the Fed finds something else to do that doesn’t set markets up for plunges that devastate investors.
I have said on a number of occasions, This is a phony economy, a phony stock market and a phony Administration. What is really bullish is, we have a chance to change that on November 3rd  with a Biden victory.
      Intitially, the stock market will need to find a more realistic level, valuewise.
It will be “roll up your sleeves time,” as competent people will be appointed to unfilled key positions, steps to address climate change and fortify our international business and defense relationships renewed, and  the country united  between people and a common goal.
That would be “BULLISH,” that’s a policy that would have legs well into the future.
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Follow up to last week’s projection for leading growth stocks:
INITIAL RISK For A DECLINE POSTED WED: SEPT. 16
My supports held up very nicely, even produced good quick-hit trading opportunities, but they won’t hold next time down without stimulus.
Price: Close 9/16
                    RISK  Low  Mon. 9/27
Facebook (FB: 263)                       251         244     Close:     262
Amazon (AMZN:3,078)             2,907       2,871    Close:  3,144
Apple (AAPL: 112)                         103         103    Close:      114
Netflix: (NFLX: 483)                       437         466     Close:     493
Google (GOOG: 1,520)              1,451       1,406   Close:  1,469
Tesla (TSLA: 441)                           377          407    Close:     419
Microsoft (MSFT: 215)                 191          196     Close:    207
Key near-term resistance: FB:262; AMZN:3,251*; AAPL: 118; NFLX: 497; GOOG: 1,486; TSLA: 424; MSFT: 213. Without a breakthrough on COVID or a stimulus, these levels won’t hold.* Update
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George Brooks
Investor’s first read.com
brooksie01@aol.com
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.