Blow Out …. or Blow Off ?

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 18,252
S&P 500: 2,121
Nasdaq  Comp.: 5,050
Russell 2000: 1,245

Friday, May 15, 2015   8:52 a.m.

TODAY:
Yesterday was a very positive day in line with projections and the potential for new all-time highs for the DJIA (18,288) and S&P 500: 2,125 today. As you can see, these two blue chip averages(indexes) are at the upper end of a three month trading range outlined below.

      Two things:

  1. New highs would get headlines in the press and  attract emotional buying.
  2. Expect institutions to do some selling resulting in the possibility of a  rally failure to follow the new highs. Currently, the DJIA is up 5.3% and S&P and Nasdaq Comp. up 2.4% in 7 days.
  3. If the selling is massive, expect a major correction, i.e. the BIG money has been waiting to pull the plug and new highs is their chance to do it at the best price.
  4. If  massive selling c does not show up, a rally failure and sharp technical correction will be reversed in a day or two and a full scale breakout develop.

Support today is DJIA: 18,288; S&P 500: 2,114; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,026.   

     Two weeks ago, I  headlined  that the month of May will be a crossroads where the market will move decidedly up or down, breaking out of the  three month trading range, roughly (DJIA 17,600 – 18,200; S&P 500: 2,040 – 2,120; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,850 – 5,100).

ALERTALERTALERT

     The six months period between Nov. 1 and May 1 has historically been the best six months for the stock market.* The six months between May 1 and Nov. 1 has underperformed. Consistent as this seasonal pattern has been, it must be noted that opportunities to trade against these trends have occurred often.  Analysts and the press will make a lot of noise about this phenom in coming months –  be careful.
…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  May 14, a reasonable risk is 18,760. The upside potential is19,225 up from 18,334 ! That would be a 5.3% move from yesterday’s close.  This would have to be the breakout from the 3-month trading range !!!
       Based on what we have seen in Q1 earnings, the current economic reports and timing of a Fed increase in interest rates, that’s hard to believe  – BUT the potential is there now. It needs a spark.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
COMMENTS:

     The quarterly earnings reporting period is being its usual pain in the butt. The biggest detriment to consistent valuations is the Street’s over emphasis on whether a company hits the projections the Street sets which are mostly based on company guidance.  It really shouldn’t matter is a company “misses” or fails to “beat” by enough to pass muster.  Company management shouldn’t be so short-term focused.

   And by the way,  who is wrong with a “miss” – the company or the Street ?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

RECOMMENDATION:  InvesTech Research is the finest advisory I have tracked in more than 30 years.  Plain talk, but solidly based indicators, great historical data to back positions.  Monthly, 8 pages, $295/year, worth every penny. Ask for copy (406)862-7777
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS:

-Stock market bubble – China
-Q1 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Concern that the U.S. economy is beginning to slump. This week is mixed.

Note: Source of economic data
For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

……………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

Bulls To Try Once Again !

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 18,060
S&P 500: 2,098
Nasdaq  Comp.: 4,981
Russell 2000: 1,232

Wednesday, May 14, 2015   9:14 a.m.

TODAY:

     While the bulls couldn’t hold their gains at the open yesterday, they are   going to give it another try today !

      Neither bulls nor bears have been able to move the chains in their forays for months.

      Resistance at DJIA 18,132; S&P 500: 2,220; Nasdaq: 5,012 needs to be broken decisively today to give the bulls a chance at new highs.     

     Two weeks ago, I  headlined  that the month of May will be a crossroads where the market will move decidedly up or down, breaking out of the  three month trading range, roughly (DJIA 17,600 – 18,200; S&P 500: 2,040 – 2,120; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,850 – 5,100).

     While Q1 earnings have put a damper on stocks, the Street’s negativity may be overdone.  The quarter looks more like a drop of 0.2 percent, down from 3.1 percent a month ago.

     If the Street sees a robust rebound in earnings, expect an upside breakout.  Otherwise, it looks like the sideways trading range will continue, even trend down over the summer months.

ALERTALERTALERT

     The six months period between Nov. 1 and May 1 has historically been the best six months for the stock market.* The six months between May 1 and Nov. 1 has underperformed. Consistent as this seasonal pattern has been, it must be noted that opportunities to trade against these trends have occurred often.  Analysts and the press will make a lot of noise about this phenom in coming months –  be careful.
…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of April 17, a reasonable risk was 17,687; more extreme risk 17,500; and the upside potential: 18,157.   The DJIA peaked at 18,175 yesterday prior to a selloff that started in early trading.

     NEW ANALYSIS: As of yesterday’s close (Apr. 27) my new calculations are:  Reasonable risk: 17,887; more extreme risk: 17,640; and near-term upside: 18,334 (a new high).

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

COMMENTS:
     The quarterly earnings reporting period is being its usual pain in the butt. The biggest detriment to consistent valuations is the Street’s over emphasis on whether a company hits the projections the Street sets which are mostly based on company guidance.  It really shouldn’t matter is a company “misses” or fails to “beat” by enough to pass muster.  Company management shouldn’t be so short-term focused.

   And by the way,  who is wrong with a “miss” – the company or the Street ?

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

RECOMMENDATION:  InvesTech Research is the finest advisory I have tracked in more than 30 years.  Plain talk, but solidly based indicators, great historical data to back positions.  Monthly, 8 pages, $295/year, worth every penny. Ask for copy (406)862-7777

 

 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
-Q1 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Concern that the U.S. economy is beginning to slump. This week is mixed.

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

……………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Another Key TEST for the Bulls

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 18,105
S&P 500: 2,105
Nasdaq  Comp.: 4,992
Russell 2000: 1,235

Tuesday, May 12, 2015   9:19 a.m.

TODAY:

Pre-market trading in stocks calls for a sharp plunge at the open – the culprit ?

 Chaos in the bond market a prices slide and yields rise.

     Bond markets get over priced just like stock markets, so a correction in either or both is possible at any time under present conditions.

     Look for a spike down to DJIA: 18,047; S&P 500: 2,098; Nasdaq Comp.:4,972.

The bulls must step in, if this is still their market – BIG TEST !

 RECOMMENDATION:  InvesTech Research is the finest advisory I have tracked in more than 30 years.  Plain talk, but solidly based indicators, great historical data to back positions.  Monthly, 8 pages, $295/year, worth every penny. Ask for copy (406)862-7777

     Last week’s post headlined  that the month of May will be a crossroads where the market will move decidedly up or down, breaking out of the  three month trading range, roughly (DJIA 17,600 – 18,200; S&P 500: 2,040 – 2,120; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,850 – 5,100).

     While Q1 earnings have put a damper on stocks, the Street’s negativity may be overdone.  The quarter looks more like a drop of 0.2 percent, down from 3.1 percent a month ago.

     If the Street sees a robust rebound in earnings, expect an upside breakout.  Otherwise, it looks like the sideways trading range will continue, even trend down over the summer months.

ALERTALERTALERT

     The six months period between Nov. 1 and May 1 has historically been the best six months for the stock market.* The six months between May 1 and Nov. 1 has underperformed. Consistent as this seasonal pattern has been, it must be noted that opportunities to trade against these trends have occurred often.  Analysts and the press will make a lot of noise about this phenom in coming months –  be careful.
…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of April 17, a reasonable risk was 17,687; more extreme risk 17,500; and the upside potential: 18,157.   The DJIA peaked at 18,175 yesterday prior to a selloff that started in early trading.

     NEW ANALYSIS: As of yesterday’s close (Apr. 27) my new calculations are:  Reasonable risk: 17,887; more extreme risk: 17,640; and near-term upside: 18,334 (a new high).

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

COMMENTS:
     The quarterly earnings reporting period is being its usual pain in the butt. The biggest detriment to consistent valuations is the Street’s over emphasis on whether a company hits the projections the Street sets which are mostly based on company guidance.  It really shouldn’t matter is a company “misses” or fails to “beat” by enough to pass muster.  Company management shouldn’t be so short-term focused.

   And by the way,  who is wrong with a “miss” – the company or the Street ?

 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
-Q1 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Concern that the U.S. economy is beginning to slump. This week is mixed.

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

……………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Risk Increasing – Bulls “Must” Step In

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,928
S&P 500: 2,089
Nasdaq  Comp.4,939
Russell 2000:    1,215

Wednesday, May 6, 2015   9:14 a.m.

NOTE:  I will not publish Thursday, Friday, Monday  (Rotator Cuff surgery !)

TODAY: This week’s employment data is calling the shots for now. Today the ADP Employment data for April came in at 169,000 new hires, a weak number. Friday’s Employment Situation data (8:30) will likely confirm the fact this year’s economy is off to a slow start, though distorted by the adverse impact lower oil prices  and a surging U.S. dollar have had on business.

    The ADP number did not adversely impact pre-market trading in futures (yet).

     Failure to sustain a rally today calls for a test of  last week’s lows of DJIA: 17,774; S&P 500: 2,077; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,921. Odds favor more volatility with a sideways consolidation, looking good one day, bad the next.

     RISK: There is an increasing risk of a sharp drop in the DJIA to 17,065; S&P 500: 1,985; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,680.

CONCLUSION:
    The Street is coping with a tradeoff – a rebounding economy and a resulting bump  up in interest rates by the Fed,  or a sagging economy, no bump, but the bad stuff that follows, including lower corporate earnings going forward on top of  stocks that are  “pricey” for those conditions.
RECOMMENDATION:  InvesTech Research is the finest advisory I have tracked in more than 30 years.  Plain talk, but solidly based indicators, great historical data to back positions.  Monthly, 8 pages, $295/year, worth every penny. Ask for copy (406)862-7777

     Last week’s post headlined  that the month of May will be a crossroads where the market will move decidedly up or down, breaking out of the  three month trading range, roughly (DJIA 17,600 – 18,200; S&P 500: 2,040 – 2,120; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,850 – 5,100).

     While Q1 earnings have put a damper on stocks, the Street’s negativity may be overdone.  The quarter looks more like a drop of 0.2 percent, down from 3.1 percent a month ago.

     If the Street sees a robust rebound in earnings, expect an upside breakout.  Otherwise, it looks like the sideways trading range will continue, even trend down over the summer months.

ALERTALERTALERT

     The six months period between Nov. 1 and May 1 has historically been the best six months for the stock market.* The six months between May 1 and Nov. 1 has underperformed. Consistent as this seasonal pattern has been, it must be noted that opportunities to trade against these trends have occurred often.  Analysts and the press will make a lot of noise about this phenom in coming months –  be careful.
…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of April 17, a reasonable risk was 17,687; more extreme risk 17,500; and the upside potential: 18,157.   The DJIA peaked at 18,175 yesterday prior to a selloff that started in early trading.

     NEW ANALYSIS: As of yesterday’s close (Apr. 27) my new calculations are:  Reasonable risk: 17,887; more extreme risk: 17,640; and near-term upside: 18,334 (a new high).

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

COMMENTS:
     The quarterly earnings reporting period is being its usual pain in the butt. The biggest detriment to consistent valuations is the Street’s over emphasis on whether a company hits the projections the Street sets which are mostly based on company guidance.  It really shouldn’t matter is a company “misses” or fails to “beat” by enough to pass muster.  Company management shouldn’t be so short-term focused.

   And by the way,  who is wrong with a “miss” – the company or the Street ?

 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
-Q1 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Concern that the U.S. economy is beginning to slump. This week is mixed.

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

Waiting for a “Sign”

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 18,070
S&P 500: 2,114
Nasdaq  Comp.5,016
Russell 2000:    1,233

Tuesday, May 5, 2015   8:43 a.m.

TODAY: This week’s employment data is calling the shots for now.

Wednesday (8:15) gives us  the ADP Employment data followed by Friday’s Employment Situation data (8:30), both key as far as the Fed is concerned.

Support: DJIA: 18,017; S&P 500: 2,100; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,003

CONCLUSION:
     Look for a mixed market at the open with the potential for an attempt to top April’s highs of DJIA 18,175 (S&P 500: 2,125).  The Nasdaq Comp. and Russell 2000 have a bit more work to do to beat April highs of 5,119 and 1,260 respectively.
    The Street is coping with a tradeoff – a rebounding economy and a resulting bump  up in interest rates by the Fed,  or a sagging economy, no bump, but the bad stuff that follows, including lower corporate earnings going forward on top of  stocks that are  “pricey” for those conditions.
RECOMMENDATION:  InvesTech Research is the finest advisory I have tracked in more than 30 years.  Plain talk, but solidly based indicators, great historical data to back positions.  Monthly, 8 pages, $295/year, worth every penny. Ask for copy (406)862-7777

     Last week’s post headlined  that the month of May will be a crossroads where the market will move decidedly up or down, breaking out of the  three month trading range, roughly (DJIA 17,600 – 18,200; S&P 500: 2,040 – 2,120; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,850 – 5,100).

     While Q1 earnings have put a damper on stocks, the Street’s negativity may be overdone.  The quarter looks more like a drop of 0.2 percent, down from 3.1 percent a month ago.

     If the Street sees a robust rebound in earnings, expect an upside breakout.  Otherwise, it looks like the sideways trading range will continue, even trend down over the summer months.

ALERTALERTALERT

     The six months period between Nov. 1 and May 1 has historically been the best six months for the stock market.* The six months between May 1 and Nov. 1 has underperformed. Consistent as this seasonal pattern has been, it must be noted that opportunities to trade against these trends have occurred often.  Analysts and the press will make a lot of noise about this phenom in coming months –  be careful.
…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of April 17, a reasonable risk was 17,687; more extreme risk 17,500; and the upside potential: 18,157.   The DJIA peaked at 18,175 yesterday prior to a selloff that started in early trading.

     NEW ANALYSIS: As of yesterday’s close (Apr. 27) my new calculations are:  Reasonable risk: 17,887; more extreme risk: 17,640; and near-term upside: 18,334 (a new high).

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

COMMENTS:
     The quarterly earnings reporting period is being its usual pain in the butt. The biggest detriment to consistent valuations is the Street’s over emphasis on whether a company hits the projections the Street sets which are mostly based on company guidance.  It really shouldn’t matter is a company “misses” or fails to “beat” by enough to pass muster.  Company management shouldn’t be so short-term focused.

   And by the way,  who is wrong with a “miss” – the company or the Street ?

 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
-Q1 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Concern that the U.S. economy is beginning to slump. This week is mixed.

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

……………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A Very Key Week for Stocks

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open
DJIA: 18.024
S&P 500: 2,108
Nasdaq  Comp.5,005
Russell 2000:    1,228

Monday, May 4, 2015   9:09 a.m.

TODAY:
    Look for an upbeat open with an attempt (once again !) this week to top April’s highs of DJIA 18,175 (S&P 500: 2,125).  The Nasdaq Comp. and Russell 2000 have a bit more work to do to beat April highs of 5,119 and 1,260 respectively.
    The Street is coping with a tradeoff – a rebounding economy and a resulting bump  up in interest rates by the Fed,  or a sagging economy, no bump, but the bad stuff that follows, including lower corporate earnings going forward on top of  stocks that are  “pricey” for those conditions.
     Wednesday (8:15) gives us  the ADP Employment data followed by Friday’s Employment Situation data (8:30), both key as far as the Fed is concerned.

CONCLUSION:

     Last week, headlined  that the month of May will be a crossroads where the market will move decidedly up or down, breaking out of the  three month trading range, roughly (DJIA 17,600 – 18,200; S&P 500: 2,040 – 2,120; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,850 – 5,100).

     While Q1 earnings have put a damper on stocks, the Street’s negativity may be overdone.  The quarter looks more like a drop of 0.2 percent, down from 3.1 percent a month ago.

     If the Street sees a robust rebound in earnings, expect an upside breakout.  Otherwise, it looks like the sideways trading range will continue, even trend down over the summer months.

ALERT:

     The six months period between Nov. 1 and May 1 has historically been the best six months for the stock market.* The six months between May 1 and Nov. 1 has underperformed. Consistent as this seasonal pattern has been, it must be noted that opportunities to trade against these trends have occurred often.  Analysts and the press will make a lot of noise about this phenom in coming months –  be careful.
…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of April 17, a reasonable risk was 17,687; more extreme risk 17,500; and the upside potential: 18,157.   The DJIA peaked at 18,175 yesterday prior to a selloff that started in early trading.

     NEW ANALYSIS: As of yesterday’s close (Apr. 27) my new calculations are:  Reasonable risk: 17,887; more extreme risk: 17,640; and near-term upside: 18,334 (a new high).

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

COMMENTS:
     The quarterly earnings reporting period is being its usual pain in the butt. The biggest detriment to consistent valuations is the Street’s over emphasis on whether a company hits the projections the Street sets which are mostly based on company guidance.  It really shouldn’t matter is a company “misses” or fails to “beat” by enough to pass muster.  Company management shouldn’t be so short-term focused.

   And by the way,  who is wrong with a “miss” – the company or the Street ?

 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
-Q1 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Concern that the U.S. economy is beginning to slump. This week is mixed.

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

……………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trouble if Rally Fails

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,840
S&P 500: 2,085
Nasdaq  Comp.4,941
Russell 2000:    1,220

Friday, May 1, 2015   9:04 a.m.

TODAY:
     If the market opens on the upside today as pre-market futures trading at 8:50 indicates, that rally will have to  hold or the April 17 support (DJIA: 17,748; S&P 500: 2,073; Nasdaq Comp. 4,919) will be tested.

Resistance is: DJIA: 17,919; S&P 500;2,094; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,987.

CONCLUSION:

    We saw a deviation from the norm in stock trading yesterday.  So often the Street gets a shot of adrenalin when it looks like economic numbers suggest a Fed hike in interest rates is coming later rather than sooner.

     Not so, this time.  The Fed is wary of an increase at this time, due to a softening in the economy after six years of recovery

     I headlined yesterday that the month of May will be a crossroads where the market will move decidedly up or down, breaking out of the  three month trading range, roughly (DJIA 17,600 – 18,200; S&P 500: 2,040 – 2,115; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,845 – 5,050).

     While Q1 earnings have put a damper on stocks, the Street’s negativity may be overdone.  The quarter looks more like a drop of 0.2 percent, down from 3.1 percent a month ago.

     If the Street sees a robust rebound in earnings, expect an upside breakout.  Otherwise, it looks like the sideways trading range will continue, even trend down over the summer months.

ALERT:

     The six months period between Nov. 1 and May 1 has historically been the best six months for the stock market.* The six months between May 1 and Nov. 1 has underperformed. Consistent as this seasonal pattern has been, it must be noted that opportunities to trade against these trends have occurred often.  Analysts and the press will make a lot of noise about this phenom in coming months –  be careful.
…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies
     On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.

 

     As of April 17, a reasonable risk was 17,687; more extreme risk 17,500; and the upside potential: 18,157.   The DJIA peaked at 18,175 yesterday prior to a selloff that started in early trading.

     NEW: As of yesterday’s close (Apr. 27) my new calculations are:  Reasonable risk: 17,887; more extreme risk: 17,640; and near-term upside: 18,334 (a new high).

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

COMMENTS:
     The quarterly earnings reporting period is being its usual pain in the butt. The biggest detriment to consistent valuations is the Street’s over emphasis on whether a company hits the projections the Street sets which are mostly based on company guidance.  It really shouldn’t matter is a company “misses” or fails to “beat” by enough to pass muster.  Company management shouldn’t be so short-term focused.

   And by the way,  who is wrong with a “miss” – the company or the Street ?

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS:
-Stock market bubble – China
-Q1 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Concern that the U.S. economy is beginning to slump. This week is mixed.

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.
……………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

May to Hold Answer – Up or Down

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 18,035
S&P 500: 2,106
Nasdaq  Comp.5,023
Russell 2000:    1,246

Thursday, April 30, 2015   9:09 a.m.

CONCLUSION:

     The FOMC shed little light yesterday on the timing of an interest rate hike, though the ugly Q1 GDP report and soft employment numbers suggest a hike won’t come until later in the year.

     A break out of the  three month trading range, roughly (DJIA 17,600 – 18,200; S&P 500: 2,040 – 2,115; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,845 – 5,050) will depend on revised earnings and corporate guidance  projections going forward.

     While Q1 earnings have put a damper on stocks, the Street’s negativity may be overdone.  The quarter looks more like a drop of 0.2 percent, down from 3.1 percent a month ago.

     If the Street sees a robust rebound, expect an upside breakout.  Otherwise, it looks like the sideways trading range will continue, even trend down over the summer months.

ALERT:

     The six months period between Nov. 1 and May 1 has historically been the best six months for the stock market.* The six months between May 1 and Nov. 1 has underperformed. Consistent as this seasonal pattern has been, it must be noted that opportunities to trade against these trends have occurred often.  Analysts and the press will make a lot of noise about this phenom in coming months –  be careful.
…………………………………………………………………………………

TODAY:

Today’s support: DJIA: 17,971;  S&P 500: 2,098;  Nasdaq Comp.: 4,998

Today’s resistance: DJIA: 18,118;  S&P 500: 2,115; Nasdaq Comp.:5,054


Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies
     On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of April 17, a reasonable risk was 17,687; more extreme risk 17,500; and the upside potential: 18,157.   The DJIA peaked at 18,175 yesterday prior to a selloff that started in early trading.

     NEW: As of yesterday’s close (Apr. 27) my new calculations are:  Reasonable risk: 17,887; more extreme risk: 17,640; and near-term upside: 18,334 (a new high)

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
-Q1 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Concern that the U.S. economy is beginning to slump. This week is mixed.

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

……………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bulls Pressing for New Highs

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 18,110
S&P 500: 2,114
Nasdaq  Comp.5,055
Russell 2000:    1,259
Wednesday, April 29, 2015   8:09 a.m.

CONCLUSION:
     Yesterday’s rebound after an early sell off  indicates another attempt is in the offing to break out of the  three month trading range, roughly (DJIA 17,600 – 18,200; S&P 500: 2,040 – 2,115; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,845 – 5,050) that has contained stock prices.  While the Russell 2000 had been in an uptrend throughout this period, it too reversed a spike down Tuesday. 

     The Fed will disclose minutes from its FOMC meeting at 2:00 pm, but no press conference is scheduled, so odds are no change in policy.

    With Q1 results as a base for analysis, projections and guidance for coming quarters will be pondered by analysts and money managers.

     Expectations for soft Q1 earnings have been a drag for weeks, but that may be changing, as projections are not panning out as negative as originally thought.
   If the Street starts to see an earnings  rebound in the second half of the year with a possible bounce in oil prices and slide in the U.S. dollar not penalizing big-name stocks, we will get a sizable breakout and  run.

ALERT:

The six months period between Nov. 1 and May 1 has historically been the best six months for the stock market.* The six months between May 1 and Nov. 1 has underperformed. Consistent as this seasonal pattern has been, it must be noted that opportunities to trade against these trends have occurred often.  Analysts and the press will make a lot of noise about this phenom in coming months –  be careful.
…………………………………………………………………………………

TODAY: Down at the open. Should try to find support at DJIA: 18,050; S&P 500: 2,109; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,040. Failing that, the next support is DJIA: 18,006; S&P500: 2,103; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,027.
…………………………………………………………………………………….
     Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of April 17, a reasonable risk was 17,687; more extreme risk 17,500; and the upside potential: 18,157.   The DJIA peaked at 18,175 yesterday prior to a selloff that started in early trading.

     NEW: As of yesterday’s close (Apr. 27) my new calculations are:  Reasonable risk: 17,887; more extreme risk: 17,640; and near-term upside: 18,334 (a new high)

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
-Q1 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Concern that the U.S. economy is beginning to slump. This week is mixed.

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

……………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Setback for Bulls, But……………..

Investor's  first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 18,037
S&P 500: 2,108
Nasdaq  Comp.5,060:
Russell 2000:    1,252
Monday, April 27, 2015   8:35 a.m.

CONCLUSION:
     Looks like the market is still  locked in a three month trading range, roughly (DJIA 17,600 – 18,200; S&P 500: 2,040 – 2,115; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,845 – 5,050).  While the Russell 2000 had been in an uptrend throughout this period, it too is hitting headwinds.   

     The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. broke out briefly last week and again yesterday only to get hit by sellers.  This is typical market action when stocks are locked in a consolidation pattern.

     Earnings and Fed interest rate angst are the culprits, as well as maneuvering by highly leveraged institutions.
   Expectations for soft Q1 earnings have been a drag for weeks, but that may be changing, as projections are not panning out as negative as originally thought..
   If the Street starts to see an earnings  rebound in the second half of the year with a possible bounce in oil prices and slide in the U.S. dollar not penalizing big-name stocks, we will get a sizable breakout and a run in small company stocks.
…………………………………………………………………………………

TODAY: Down at the open. Should try to find support at DJIA: 17,982; S&P 500: 2,103; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,027. Failing that, the next support is DJIA: 17,887; S&P500: 2,093; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,017
…………………………………………………………………………………….
     Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of April 17, a reasonable risk was 17,687; more extreme risk 17,500; and the upside potential: 18,157.   The DJIA peaked at 18,175 yesterday prior to a selloff that started in early trading.

     NEW: As of yesterday’s close (Apr. 27) my new calculations are:  Reasonable risk: 17,887; more extreme risk: 17,640; and near-term upside: 18,334 (a new high)

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS:
Greece is again at risk of default.
-Yemen chaos may be cooling.
-Stock market bubble – China
-Q1 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Concern that the U.S. economy is beginning to slump.

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk