A Nervous Market

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 19,890
S&P 500: 2,279
Nasdaq Comp.:5,642
Russell 2000:1,361
Thursday, February 2, 2017 9:08 a.m.
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Tax reform is now taking center stage. This is one of the Street’s major incentives for buying stocks, the others are deregulation and sharply increased spending on the military and infrastructure.
While the Street welcomes a focus on business away from immigration, cabinet appointees, Iran, domestic issues and a wall, it is reluctant to go all-in, primarily because it just doesn’t know what to expect next from the Trump administration.
The upside breakout seven days ago did not follow through.
That can still happen, but some sense of predictability must replace the contentious haphazard way of governing in Washington.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:19,817;S&P 500:2,271; Nasdaq Comp.:5,621
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:19,943;S&P 500:2,287;Nasdaq Comp.:5,656
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ISSUES TO CONSIDER
– the prospect of big corporate tax cuts, deregulation, a big spend on the military and the infrastructure and the restructuring of long-standing trade agreements.
-the uncertainties of the repeal of Obamacare
-talk of privatization of Medicare and Social Security
-possible undermining of NATO and the European Union
-a trade war of sorts.
-lifting of sanctions on Russia for its incursion in the Crimea and actions in Syria, adding to questions already breached.
-continued internal polarization of America and the possible extension of such to other countries.
-intense economic stimulation by the Trump/Republican Congress stands to trigger a rebound of inflationary pressures forcing the Fed to bump interest rates sooner than expected.
-an increasing erosion of investor confidence in President Trump
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Yesterday’s Trivia question” Who issued the least executive orders per year over the last 120 years ?
Answer: President Obama
IMHO, there is an element in this administration that wants total power,and will gut whatever necessary to gain it – they are “The Enemy Within.”
The Trump administration is all about the Alt-Right conservatives gaining total control of our governance. The neocons in high places in the George W. Bush administration (Cheney, Perle, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz,Woolsey, Abrams, Bolton) were signatories to the Project For a New America (PNAC), now the Foreign Policy Initiative, and were instrumental in the invasion of Iraq, which totally destabilized the Mid-East. In fact, the PNAC urged the removal of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998.
I think the Alt-Right’s influence in the Trump administration will be worse, challenging the existence of our constitutional republic.
The major player in Trump’s administration for the Alt-Right is Stephen Bannon, chief strategist to President Trump and reportedly the mind behind many of the decisions coming out of Washington. In 2012, Bannon took over Breitbart News, a far-right news and opinion website, which according to Time has a racist, sexist, xenophobic, and anti-Semite focus. In 2016m Bannon prefers to be identified as ant-establishment, against today’s permanent political class.
This is disturbing and in time could adversely impact stock prices, since destabilizing the United States would cripple confidence in our institutions, one of which is the stock market.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Corporate earnings (update)
Factset now sees Q4 earnings for the S&P 500 up 3.4% vs. a Dec.31 est. of 3.0%.. Earnings for 2017 are expected to increase 11.4%. Currently, the P/E based on earnings 12 months out is 16.9 x, which compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.4 and a 5-year P/E of 15.1.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies: (UPDATE)
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of January 27, 2017, a reasonable risk is 20,013 a more extreme risk is 19,947 Near-term upside potential is 20,288.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: bullish
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Selective opportunity ! Risk is reality at some point
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 35%.
 KEY FACTORS: Speculative fever driven by expectations of tax cuts, lifting of regs., and lots of money dumped on economy.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 19,890
S&P 500: 2,279
Nasdaq Comp.:5,642
Russell 2000:1,361
Thursday, February 2, 2017 9:08 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Tax reform is now taking center stage. This is one of the Street’s major incentives for buying stocks, the others are deregulation and sharply increased spending on the military and infrastructure.
While the Street welcomes a focus on business away from immigration, cabinet appointees, Iran, domestic issues and a wall, it is reluctant to go all-in, primarily because it just doesn’t know what to expect next from the Trump administration.
The upside breakout seven days ago did not follow through.
That can still happen, but some sense of predictability must replace the contentious haphazard way of governing in Washington.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:19,817;S&P 500:2,271; Nasdaq Comp.:5,621
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:19,943;S&P 500:2,287;Nasdaq Comp.:5,656
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ISSUES TO CONSIDER
– the prospect of big corporate tax cuts, deregulation, a big spend on the military and the infrastructure and the restructuring of long-standing trade agreements.
-the uncertainties of the repeal of Obamacare
-talk of privatization of Medicare and Social Security
-possible undermining of NATO and the European Union
-a trade war of sorts.
-lifting of sanctions on Russia for its incursion in the Crimea and actions in Syria, adding to questions already breached.
-continued internal polarization of America and the possible extension of such to other countries.
-intense economic stimulation by the Trump/Republican Congress stands to trigger a rebound of inflationary pressures forcing the Fed to bump interest rates sooner than expected.
-an increasing erosion of investor confidence in President Trump
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Yesterday’s Trivia question” Who issued the least executive orders per year over the last 120 years ?
Answer: President Obama
IMHO, there is an element in this administration that wants total power,and will gut whatever necessary to gain it – they are “The Enemy Within.”
The Trump administration is all about the Alt-Right conservatives gaining total control of our governance. The neocons in high places in the George W. Bush administration (Cheney, Perle, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz,Woolsey, Abrams, Bolton) were signatories to the Project For a New America (PNAC), now the Foreign Policy Initiative, and were instrumental in the invasion of Iraq, which totally destabilized the Mid-East. In fact, the PNAC urged the removal of Saddam Hussein as early as 1998.
I think the Alt-Right’s influence in the Trump administration will be worse, challenging the existence of our constitutional republic.
The major player in Trump’s administration for the Alt-Right is Stephen Bannon, chief strategist to President Trump and reportedly the mind behind many of the decisions coming out of Washington. In 2012, Bannon took over Breitbart News, a far-right news and opinion website, which according to Time has a racist, sexist, xenophobic, and anti-Semite focus. In 2016m Bannon prefers to be identified as ant-establishment, against today’s permanent political class.
This is disturbing and in time could adversely impact stock prices, since destabilizing the United States would cripple confidence in our institutions, one of which is the stock market.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Corporate earnings (update)
Factset now sees Q4 earnings for the S&P 500 up 3.4% vs. a Dec.31 est. of 3.0%.. Earnings for 2017 are expected to increase 11.4%. Currently, the P/E based on earnings 12 months out is 16.9 x, which compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.4 and a 5-year P/E of 15.1.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies: (UPDATE)
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of January 27, 2017, a reasonable risk is 20,013 a more extreme risk is 19,947 Near-term upside potential is 20,288.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: bullish
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Selective opportunity ! Risk is reality at some point
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 35%.
 KEY FACTORS: Speculative fever driven by expectations of tax cuts, lifting of regs., and lots of money dumped on economy.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

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