Traders – Sell a Rate Cut

INVESTOR’S first read.com – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:27,198
S&P 500: 3,013
Nasdaq Comp.:8,273
Russell 2000: 1,583
Wednesday July 31, 2019
  8:08 a.m.
………………………..
gbifr79@gmail.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

TODAY:
The BIG day ! 
The Fed has been hinting at a rate cut since January when it suddenly reversed its policy of raising rates to one of ease – the reason – it wanted to head off a recession that threatened to strike in 2020, a presidential election year.
It’s hype was the main reason Q4’s 20% plunge in the S&P 500 was reversed and it surged 28% in seven months.   That’s power – raw power.
       The Street expects a rate cut  at 2:00 p.m. today.
If it doesn’t happen, the market will take a hit, how much depends on what Fed Chair Jerome Powell says in his press conference at 2:30.
I expect him to have good things to say about the economy even if  the Fed cuts its fed funds rate to head off a recession.
If they don’t cut its rate, he will allude to the possibility of a cut in September (no FOMC meeting in August).
One way or another, he will try to stabilize a market that has risen a lot in a short period of time.
IMHO, the Fed has acted irresponsibly over the last seven months. It panicked after Q4’s 20% plunge in the market, as well as in response to rising signs of a recession, Without really acknowledging the latter, it gave the Street reason to believe it would cut its rate and in essence cover its back in the event the market plunged  again.
         So, here we are at all-time highs, 28% above the December 26 lows and still facing the prospect of a recession, which the market hasn’t discounted.
While there have been bear markets without a recession there has never been a recession without a bear market.
         My message to the Fed – let the market find a level that discounts current and possible events – don’t tamper with the level of stock prices.  If the Fed can’t head off a recession this stock market has a long way down to go to discount a recession and the Fed is responsible for investors getting hurt.
 …………………………………………….
TECHNICAL

Minor Support: DJIA:26,200; S&P 500:3,001;Nasdaq Comp.:8,243
Minor Resistance: DJIA:27,3066; S&P500:3,025;Nasdaq Comp.:8,306

………………………………………….
Tuesday July 30  “Stock Market Bubble to Burst”

      I don’t know when the bubble will burst, maybe today, tomorrow, next week, month, or four months from now.  Bubbles just keep inflating until – POP !
As a bubble, the more the stock market goes up in face of  deteriorating U.S. and global economies and struggling corporate earnings   growth, the greater the risk.
Forget that dividends discounted into the future crap, the value of a stock on a given day is what buyers and sellers say it is.
On October 3, 2018,  buyers and sellers said the S&P 500 was worth 2,939.  On December 26, they said the S&P 500 was worth 2,346, or 20.4% less.
Now they think it is worth 3,025.
If the Fed did not intervene with lip service starting in January this year, the market would trade a lot lower than it is now, much closer to reality in face of the looming adversity the Fed is trying to head off.
Investors, the pros and the manipulators behind the scene ramp up greed and fear to extreme turning points at bull market tops and bear market bottoms.
         This time the Fed’s attempt to micro-manage the economy and stock market as we head into a presidential election year has sucked investors into stocks at levels where the downside risk far exceeds the upside potential.
         THE UNTHINKABLE FOR THE STREET WOULD BE IF THE FED DOES NOT CUT RATES.
         While that should be good news economically, in that it suggests the Fed is not spooked by the economy’s softness, it wouldn’t go over big with the Street which has run stocks up in anticipation of a cut.
My concern is that just one major piece unexpected bad news or that  one major institution will break ranks, and sell and the spell will be broken and we will be in a savage bear market that will start off with a 12% to 18% free-fall, then down another 35% down too boot.
That’s the risk I see , risk here deserves respect.

Monday  July 29     “Fed Fever Festering”

I have experienced 13 bull market tops, and they all had similar characteristics – one of the most prevalent being that most investors simply believed the bull market would never end.
I have experienced 14 bear market bottoms, and all had similar characteristics – one of the most prevalent being most investors simply believed the carnage would never end.
The tops and bottoms come as a surprise.  Buyers tend to jump in quickly after a top thinking lower prices are giving them a rare opportunity to buy more.
After a bottom. sellers tend to dump stocks as a new bull market is underway, thinking  they are getting a second chance to lighten up.
We are in a bubble, an extreme characterized by stocks selling at an extreme price earnings ratio  (P/E) seen only once in a hundred years, the dot-com bubble in 2000 when many of the  Street’s favorites  didn’t have earnings to measure, and never did.  The Nasdaq Comp. plunges 78%, the S&P 500 50%.
This time is different.  It is the Blue chips that are overpriced, with the Shiller P/E above 30, well above any in the past except 1999’s P/E of 44.
On Wednesday, the Fed will announce its decision on a cut in interest rates. The Street is expecting a quarter-point cut, but with the market rising, that could already be discounted in advance and traders may sell heavily.
Failure to cut would cause selling at least after the announcement.
…………………………………………………….
Friday  July 26,     “Double Bubble Trouble”
On Tuesday, I used Boeing (BA) as an example of late-stage bull market arrogance, where the Street ignores bad news thinking it’ll go away, after all it’s onward and upward in a bull market that has no end.
BA’s stock was on a tear in July even in face of the grounding of its 737 Max jets by major airlines.
Over the next two days, BA plunged to 345 from 373, not due to my comments (!!), but because savvy pros dumped it, happy for the gift of higher prices. Technically, I can see BA dropping to the  270 – 290 area by year-end.
BA is one of this bull markets big winners, a darling of institutions.
The demise of these kind of Street favorites is a warning signal that a bear market is looming. There will be others, nothing is sacred when stuff hits the fan.
On that note, the Street still  feels like it is bulletproof, after all, the Fed has made it loud and clear it has its back, that it will jawbone and cut rates to prop stock prices up at least until after election day in 2020.
        But a cut in its benchmark rate (Fed funds) has preceded every recession over the last 50 years and no recession has ever occurred without a bear market.
……………………………………………………..
Thursday  July  25
“Impeachment Proceedings Would Trigger a Bear Market”

The initial reaction to the Mueller testimony yesterday was seen by both sides as a ho-hummer, short on optics and new news.
A closer look at questions and answers indicates it provided the fodder for impeachment proceedings and that could be the first time the Street realizes another four years of Trump is at risk.
While the U.S. Senate would never vote to convict, the Republican Party may decide it must quickly run someone else or risk losing the presidency and the Senate.
More than two-thirds of this bull market’s gain of 353% has occurred under a Democrat president (Obama), but its extension has occurred since the election of Trump at a time the stock market was becoming overbought on a historical basis.
It is soooo much more overvalued today with the Shiller price/earnings ratio higher than at any time  ever except the  ridiculous dot-com bubble burst in 2000.
At the time, the Street and everyone else expected  the market to keep surging.  It didn’t, the S&P 500 dropped 50% and the Nasdaq Comp. dropped 78%.
         I am trying here to build a case for a sizable cash reserve of 30% – 50% or higher if  an investor sees a need for cash in the near future (college, retirement, big purchase) and cannot ride out an extended bear market which can, and will begin without notice.
………………………………………………..
Wednesday   (July 24) “Full-Blown-Bubble-Buy Mode…. Until…POP !

Special Counsel Robert Mueller testifies before Congress today starting at 8:30. To date, the Street could care less about politics or national events.
The Street has been  in full-blown-bubble-buy mode since late December. Don’t get in its way, the Street wants to continue to party.
At some point it will be last call, then drink up, bar closing, but not until far too many late-comers barge in to buy………… at the top.
This has been a tough top to call thanks to the Fed’s ongoing  obsession with micro-managing the stock market.
After an ill-conceived December bump in its fed funds rate, the Fed turned on a dime to change policy to promise it has the Street’s back in the event the market tanks before or during the presidential election.
Without cutting its rate, the Fed was able to verbally goose stocks out of a 20% Q4 plunge and orchestrate a 28% rebound.
Next Wednesday, it will announce its decision to cut its rate or to hold at 2.5%, which in June it said it would hold through 2021 unless the economy deteriorates.
Obviously, the Street expects a cut, it has been buying aggressively.
The Street and public would be better served if the Fed did not hype the market, promising rate cuts while claiming the “economy was in  a good place.”
IF THE FED SEES A RECESSION ON THE HORIZON, THE LAST THING IT SHOULD HAVE  DONE IS ENCOURAGE INVESTORS TO BUY.
We have never had a recession without a bear market. We have had bear markets without recessions.

Trust the market to find the  comfort level that discounts known and perceived negatives and positives.
………………………………………………
Tuesday   (July 23)   “Market Bubbling Over ????”

Even in face of a pending horrendous earnings report, Boeing’s (BA) stock is up sharply over the last 10 days.  Axios reports BA will post a $5 billion after-tax charge in Q2, after the grounding of its 737 Max jets by Southwest (LUV), American (AAL) and United (UAL).
Its Plans to buy back are on hold while  its chief competitor, Europe’s Airbus, has delivered 150 jets to airlines so far this year.
Perhaps, the Street is overlooking BA’s present problems, but are BA’s problems over ?
This is late stage bull market arrogance. We have seen it at market tops before.
There were some very savvy investment professionals  turned bearish in Q 4 last year.  That obviously contributed to the 20% shellacking the market took in 2018’s final three months.
At the time their bearishness was believable – the market was falling  out of bed.
Also, at the time, the Fed was raising interest rates with three planned for this year.
But signs of a recession were surfacing and the Fed reversed from restrictive to ease and the stock market took off recouping all of its Q4 loss.
My two most respected sources are urging readers to sit close to the exit, which I have been doing for many months.
There is only so much that can be said about risk at market tops (few listen; likewise there is only so much that can be said at market bottoms about opportunity (few listen).
………………………………………………

What No One on Wall Street Wants to Hear
>We are in the late innings of an economic expansion, so a recession is a good bet. The current expansion started in June 2009, has lasted 120 months, the longest  in history, twice as long as the average length of 11 cycles since 1945.
> Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months.  The unemployment rate is 3.6% which was hit in May.  Technically, we won’t know when the start of the current recession is official for months after the fact, since that conclusion is  reached by the Nat’l Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and they consider  host of economic indicators.
>Bear markets lead the beginning of recessions by 3 to 12 months.  The current bull market at 123 months is 4 times the average of the last 15 bulls going back to 1957
 >Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
George Brooks
Investor’s first read.com
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stock Market Bubble to Burst ?

INVESTOR’S first read.com – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:27,221
S&P 500: 3,020
Nasdaq Comp.:8,293
Russell 2000: 1,569
Tuesday July 30, 2019
  7:54 a.m.
………………………..
gbifr79@gmail.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

TODAY:
I don’t know when
the bubble will burst, maybe today, tomorrow, next week, month, or four months from now.  Bubbles just keep inflating until – POP !
As a bubble, the more the stock market goes up in face of  deteriorating U.S. and global economies and struggling corporate earnings   growth, the greater the risk.
Forget that dividends discounted into the future crap, the value of a stock on a given day is what buyers and sellers say it is.
On October 3, 2018,  buyers and sellers said the S&P 500 was worth 2,939.  On December 26, they said the S&P 500 was worth 2,346, or 20.4% less.
Now they think it is worth 3,025.
If the Fed did not intervene with lip service starting in January this year, the market would trade a lot lower than it is now, much closer to reality in face of the looming adversity the Fed is trying to head off.
Investors, the pros and the manipulators behind the scene ramp up greed and fear to extreme turning points at bull market tops and bear market bottoms.
         This time the Fed’s attempt to micro-manage the economy and stock market as we head into a presidential election year has sucked investors into stocks at levels where the downside risk far exceeds the upside potential.
         THE UNTHINKABLE FOR THE STREET WOULD BE IF THE FED DOES NOT CUT RATES.
         While that should be good news economically, in that it suggests the Fed is not spooked by the economy’s softness, it wouldn’t go over big with the Street which has run stocks up in anticipation of a cut.
My concern is that just one major piece unexpected bad news or that  one major institution will break ranks, and sell and the spell will be broken and we will be in a savage bear market that will start off with a 12% to 18% free-fall, then down another 35% down too boot.
That’s the risk I see , risk here deserves respect.
…………………………………………….
TECHNICAL

Minor Support: DJIA:27,119; S&P 500:3,020;Nasdaq Comp.:8,267
Minor Resistance: DJIA:27,286; S&P500:3,028;Nasdaq Comp.:8,347

………………………………………….
Monday  July 29
     “Fed Fever Festering”

I have experienced 13 bull market tops, and they all had similar characteristics – one of the most prevalent being that most investors simply believed the bull market would never end.
I have experienced 14 bear market bottoms, and all had similar characteristics – one of the most prevalent being most investors simply believed the carnage would never end.
The tops and bottoms come as a surprise.  Buyers tend to jump in quickly after a top thinking lower prices are giving them a rare opportunity to buy more.
After a bottom. sellers tend to dump stocks as a new bull market is underway, thinking  they are getting a second chance to lighten up.
We are in a bubble, an extreme characterized by stocks selling at an extreme price earnings ratio  (P/E) seen only once in a hundred years, the dot-com bubble in 2000 when many of the  Street’s favorites  didn’t have earnings to measure, and never did.  The Nasdaq Comp. plunges 78%, the S&P 500 50%.
This time is different.  It is the Blue chips that are overpriced, with the Shiller P/E above 30, well above any in the past except 1999’s P/E of 44.
On Wednesday, the Fed will announce its decision on a cut in interest rates. The Street is expecting a quarter-point cut, but with the market rising, that could already be discounted in advance and traders may sell heavily.
Failure to cut would cause selling at least after the announcement.
…………………………………………………….
Friday  July 26,     “Double Bubble Trouble”
On Tuesday, I used Boeing (BA) as an example of late-stage bull market arrogance, where the Street ignores bad news thinking it’ll go away, after all it’s onward and upward in a bull market that has no end.
BA’s stock was on a tear in July even in face of the grounding of its 737 Max jets by major airlines.
Over the next two days, BA plunged to 345 from 373, not due to my comments (!!), but because savvy pros dumped it, happy for the gift of higher prices. Technically, I can see BA dropping to the  270 – 290 area by year-end.
BA is one of this bull markets big winners, a darling of institutions.
The demise of these kind of Street favorites is a warning signal that a bear market is looming. There will be others, nothing is sacred when stuff hits the fan.
On that note, the Street still  feels like it is bulletproof, after all, the Fed has made it loud and clear it has its back, that it will jawbone and cut rates to prop stock prices up at least until after election day in 2020.
        But a cut in its benchmark rate (Fed funds) has preceded every recession over the last 50 years and no recession has ever occurred without a bear market.
……………………………………………………..
Thursday  July  25
“Impeachment Proceedings Would Trigger a Bear Market”

The initial reaction to the Mueller testimony yesterday was seen by both sides as a ho-hummer, short on optics and new news.
A closer look at questions and answers indicates it provided the fodder for impeachment proceedings and that could be the first time the Street realizes another four years of Trump is at risk.
While the U.S. Senate would never vote to convict, the Republican Party may decide it must quickly run someone else or risk losing the presidency and the Senate.
More than two-thirds of this bull market’s gain of 353% has occurred under a Democrat president (Obama), but its extension has occurred since the election of Trump at a time the stock market was becoming overbought on a historical basis.
It is soooo much more overvalued today with the Shiller price/earnings ratio higher than at any time  ever except the  ridiculous dot-com bubble burst in 2000.
At the time, the Street and everyone else expected  the market to keep surging.  It didn’t, the S&P 500 dropped 50% and the Nasdaq Comp. dropped 78%.
         I am trying here to build a case for a sizable cash reserve of 30% – 50% or higher if  an investor sees a need for cash in the near future (college, retirement, big purchase) and cannot ride out an extended bear market which can, and will begin without notice.
………………………………………………..
Wednesday   (July 24) “Full-Blown-Bubble-Buy Mode…. Until…POP !

Special Counsel Robert Mueller testifies before Congress today starting at 8:30. To date, the Street could care less about politics or national events.
The Street has been  in full-blown-bubble-buy mode since late December. Don’t get in its way, the Street wants to continue to party.
At some point it will be last call, then drink up, bar closing, but not until far too many late-comers barge in to buy………… at the top.
This has been a tough top to call thanks to the Fed’s ongoing  obsession with micro-managing the stock market.
After an ill-conceived December bump in its fed funds rate, the Fed turned on a dime to change policy to promise it has the Street’s back in the event the market tanks before or during the presidential election.
Without cutting its rate, the Fed was able to verbally goose stocks out of a 20% Q4 plunge and orchestrate a 28% rebound.
Next Wednesday, it will announce its decision to cut its rate or to hold at 2.5%, which in June it said it would hold through 2021 unless the economy deteriorates.
Obviously, the Street expects a cut, it has been buying aggressively.
The Street and public would be better served if the Fed did not hype the market, promising rate cuts while claiming the “economy was in  a good place.”
IF THE FED SEES A RECESSION ON THE HORIZON, THE LAST THING IT SHOULD HAVE  DONE IS ENCOURAGE INVESTORS TO BUY.
We have never had a recession without a bear market. We have had bear markets without recessions.

Trust the market to find the  comfort level that discounts known and perceived negatives and positives.
………………………………………………
Tuesday   (July 23)   “Market Bubbling Over ????”

Even in face of a pending horrendous earnings report, Boeing’s (BA) stock is up sharply over the last 10 days.  Axios reports BA will post a $5 billion after-tax charge in Q2, after the grounding of its 737 Max jets by Southwest (LUV), American (AAL) and United (UAL).
Its Plans to buy back are on hold while  its chief competitor, Europe’s Airbus, has delivered 150 jets to airlines so far this year.
Perhaps, the Street is overlooking BA’s present problems, but are BA’s problems over ?
This is late stage bull market arrogance. We have seen it at market tops before.
There were some very savvy investment professionals  turned bearish in Q 4 last year.  That obviously contributed to the 20% shellacking the market took in 2018’s final three months.
At the time their bearishness was believable – the market was falling  out of bed.
Also, at the time, the Fed was raising interest rates with three planned for this year.
But signs of a recession were surfacing and the Fed reversed from restrictive to ease and the stock market took off recouping all of its Q4 loss.
My two most respected sources are urging readers to sit close to the exit, which I have been doing for many months.
There is only so much that can be said about risk at market tops (few listen; likewise there is only so much that can be said at market bottoms about opportunity (few listen).
………………………………………………

What No One on Wall Street Wants to Hear
>We are in the late innings of an economic expansion, so a recession is a good bet. The current expansion started in June 2009, has lasted 120 months, the longest  in history, twice as long as the average length of 11 cycles since 1945.
> Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months.  The unemployment rate is 3.6% which was hit in May.  Technically, we won’t know when the start of the current recession is official for months after the fact, since that conclusion is  reached by the Nat’l Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and they consider  host of economic indicators.
>Bear markets lead the beginning of recessions by 3 to 12 months.  The current bull market at 123 months is 4 times the average of the last 15 bulls going back to 1957
 >Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
George Brooks
Investor’s first read.com
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fed Fever Festering

INVESTOR’S first read.com – Daily edge before the open
DJIA :27,192
S&P 500: 3,025
Nasdaq Comp.:8,330
Russell 2000: 1,578
Monday July 29, 2019
  9:17 a.m.
………………………..
gbifr79@gmail.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

TODAY:
      I have experienced 13 bull market tops, and they all had similar characteristics – one of the most prevalent being that most investors simply believed the bull market would never end.
I have experienced 14 bear market bottoms, and all had similar characteristics – one of the most prevalent being most investors simply believed the carnage would never end.
The tops and bottoms come as a surprise.  Buyers tend to jump in quickly after a top thinking lower prices are giving them a rare opportunity to buy more.
After a bottom. sellers tend to dump stocks as a new bull market is underway, thinking  they are getting a second chance to lighten up.
We are in a bubble, an extreme characterized by stocks selling at an extreme price earnings ratio  (P/E) seen only once in a hundred years, the dot-com bubble in 2000 when many of the  Street’s favorites  didn’t have earnings to measure, and never did.  The Nasdaq Comp. plunges 78%, the S&P 500 50%.
This time is different.  It is the Blue chips that are overpriced, with the Shiller P/E above 30, well above any in the past except 1999’s P/E of 44.
On Wednesday, the Fed will announce its decision on a cut in interest rates. The Street is expecting a quarter-point cut, but with the market rising, that could already be discounted in advance and traders may sell heavily.
Failure to cut would cause selling at least after the announcement.
 …………………………………………….
TECHNICAL

Minor Support: DJIA:27,156; S&P 500:3,019;Nasdaq Comp.:8,318
Minor Resistance: DJIA:27,238; S&P500:3,029;Nasdaq Comp.:8,344

………………………………………….
Friday  July 26,     “Double Bubble Trouble”
On Tuesday, I used Boeing (BA) as an example of late-stage bull market arrogance, where the Street ignores bad news thinking it’ll go away, after all it’s onward and upward in a bull market that has no end.
BA’s stock was on a tear in July even in face of the grounding of its 737 Max jets by major airlines.
Over the next two days, BA plunged to 345 from 373, not due to my comments (!!), but because savvy pros dumped it, happy for the gift of higher prices. Technically, I can see BA dropping to the  270 – 290 area by year-end.
BA is one of this bull markets big winners, a darling of institutions.
The demise of these kind of Street favorites is a warning signal that a bear market is looming. There will be others, nothing is sacred when stuff hits the fan.
On that note, the Street still  feels like it is bulletproof, after all, the Fed has made it loud and clear it has its back, that it will jawbone and cut rates to prop stock prices up at least until after election day in 2020.
        But a cut in its benchmark rate (Fed funds) has preceded every recession over the last 50 years and no recession has ever occurred without a bear market.
……………………………………………………..
Thursday  July  25
“Impeachment Proceedings Would Trigger a Bear Market”

The initial reaction to the Mueller testimony yesterday was seen by both sides as a ho-hummer, short on optics and new news.
A closer look at questions and answers indicates it provided the fodder for impeachment proceedings and that could be the first time the Street realizes another four years of Trump is at risk.
While the U.S. Senate would never vote to convict, the Republican Party may decide it must quickly run someone else or risk losing the presidency and the Senate.
More than two-thirds of this bull market’s gain of 353% has occurred under a Democrat president (Obama), but its extension has occurred since the election of Trump at a time the stock market was becoming overbought on a historical basis.
It is soooo much more overvalued today with the Shiller price/earnings ratio higher than at any time  ever except the  ridiculous dot-com bubble burst in 2000.
At the time, the Street and everyone else expected  the market to keep surging.  It didn’t, the S&P 500 dropped 50% and the Nasdaq Comp. dropped 78%.
         I am trying here to build a case for a sizable cash reserve of 30% – 50% or higher if  an investor sees a need for cash in the near future (college, retirement, big purchase) and cannot ride out an extended bear market which can, and will begin without notice.
………………………………………………..
Wednesday   (July 24) “Full-Blown-Bubble-Buy Mode…. Until…POP !

Special Counsel Robert Mueller testifies before Congress today starting at 8:30. To date, the Street could care less about politics or national events.
The Street has been  in full-blown-bubble-buy mode since late December. Don’t get in its way, the Street wants to continue to party.
At some point it will be last call, then drink up, bar closing, but not until far too many late-comers barge in to buy………… at the top.
This has been a tough top to call thanks to the Fed’s ongoing  obsession with micro-managing the stock market.
After an ill-conceived December bump in its fed funds rate, the Fed turned on a dime to change policy to promise it has the Street’s back in the event the market tanks before or during the presidential election.
Without cutting its rate, the Fed was able to verbally goose stocks out of a 20% Q4 plunge and orchestrate a 28% rebound.
Next Wednesday, it will announce its decision to cut its rate or to hold at 2.5%, which in June it said it would hold through 2021 unless the economy deteriorates.
Obviously, the Street expects a cut, it has been buying aggressively.
The Street and public would be better served if the Fed did not hype the market, promising rate cuts while claiming the “economy was in  a good place.”
IF THE FED SEES A RECESSION ON THE HORIZON, THE LAST THING IT SHOULD HAVE  DONE IS ENCOURAGE INVESTORS TO BUY.
We have never had a recession without a bear market. We have had bear markets without recessions.

Trust the market to find the  comfort level that discounts known and perceived negatives and positives.
………………………………………………
Tuesday   (July 23)   “Market Bubbling Over ????”

Even in face of a pending horrendous earnings report, Boeing’s (BA) stock is up sharply over the last 10 days.  Axios reports BA will post a $5 billion after-tax charge in Q2, after the grounding of its 737 Max jets by Southwest (LUV), American (AAL) and United (UAL).
Its Plans to buy back are on hold while  its chief competitor, Europe’s Airbus, has delivered 150 jets to airlines so far this year.
Perhaps, the Street is overlooking BA’s present problems, but are BA’s problems over ?
This is late stage bull market arrogance. We have seen it at market tops before.
There were some very savvy investment professionals  turned bearish in Q 4 last year.  That obviously contributed to the 20% shellacking the market took in 2018’s final three months.
At the time their bearishness was believable – the market was falling  out of bed.
Also, at the time, the Fed was raising interest rates with three planned for this year.
But signs of a recession were surfacing and the Fed reversed from restrictive to ease and the stock market took off recouping all of its Q4 loss.
My two most respected sources are urging readers to sit close to the exit, which I have been doing for many months.
There is only so much that can be said about risk at market tops (few listen; likewise there is only so much that can be said at market bottoms about opportunity (few listen).
………………………………………………

What No One on Wall Street Wants to Hear
>We are in the late innings of an economic expansion, so a recession is a good bet. The current expansion started in June 2009, has lasted 120 months, the longest  in history, twice as long as the average length of 11 cycles since 1945.
> Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months.  The unemployment rate is 3.6% which was hit in May.  Technically, we won’t know when the start of the current recession is official for months after the fact, since that conclusion is  reached by the Nat’l Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and they consider  host of economic indicators.
>Bear markets lead the beginning of recessions by 3 to 12 months.  The current bull market at 123 months is 4 times the average of the last 15 bulls going back to 1957
 >Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
George Brooks
Investor’s first read.com
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Double Bubble Trouble

INVESTOR’S first read.com – Daily edge before the open
DJIA :27,140
S&P 500: 3,003
Nasdaq Comp.:8,238
Russell 2000: 1,561
Friday July 26, 2019
  9:17 a.m.
………………………..
gbifr79@gmail.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

TODAY:
On Tuesday, I used Boeing (BA) as an example of late-stage bull market arrogance, where the Street ignores bad news thinking it’ll go away, after all it’s onward and upward in a bull market that has no end.
BA’s stock was on a tear in July even in face of the grounding of its 737 Max jets by major airlines.
Over the next two days, BA plunged to 345 from 373, not due to my comments (!!), but because savvy pros dumped it, happy for the gift of higher prices. Technically, I can see BA dropping to the  270 – 290 area by year-end.
BA is one of this bull markets big winners, a darling of institutions.
The demise of these kind of Street favorites is a warning signal that a bear market is looming. There will be others, nothing is sacred when stuff hits the fan.
On that note, the Street still  feels like it is bulletproof, after all, the Fed has made it loud and clear it has its back, that it will jawbone and cut rates to prop stock prices up at least until after election day in 2020.
        But a cut in its benchmark rate (Fed funds) has preceded every recession over the last 50 years and no recession has ever occurred without a bear market.
       …………………………………………….
TECHNICAL
A rally failure today would be bad news.
Minor Support: DJIA:27,091; S&P 500:2,997;Nasdaq Comp.:8,221
Minor Resistance: DJIA:27,237; S&P500:3,013;Nasdaq Comp.:8,264

………………………………………….
Thursday  July  25
“Impeachment Proceedings Would Trigger a Bear Market”

The initial reaction to the Mueller testimony yesterday was seen by both sides as a ho-hummer, short on optics and new news.
A closer look at questions and answers indicates it provided the fodder for impeachment proceedings and that could be the first time the Street realizes another four years of Trump is at risk.
While the U.S. Senate would never vote to convict, the Republican Party may decide it must quickly run someone else or risk losing the presidency and the Senate.
More than two-thirds of this bull market’s gain of 353% has occurred under a Democrat president (Obama), but its extension has occurred since the election of Trump at a time the stock market was becoming overbought on a historical basis.
It is soooo much more overvalued today with the Shiller price/earnings ratio higher than at any time  ever except the  ridiculous dot-com bubble burst in 2000.
At the time, the Street and everyone else expected  the market to keep surging.  It didn’t, the S&P 500 dropped 50% and the Nasdaq Comp. dropped 78%.
         I am trying here to build a case for a sizable cash reserve of 30% – 50% or higher if  an investor sees a need for cash in the near future (college, retirement, big purchase) and cannot ride out an extended bear market which can, and will begin without notice.
………………………………………………..
Wednesday   (July 24) “Full-Blown-Bubble-Buy Mode…. Until…POP !

Special Counsel Robert Mueller testifies before Congress today starting at 8:30. To date, the Street could care less about politics or national events.
The Street has been  in full-blown-bubble-buy mode since late December. Don’t get in its way, the Street wants to continue to party.
At some point it will be last call, then drink up, bar closing, but not until far too many late-comers barge in to buy………… at the top.
This has been a tough top to call thanks to the Fed’s ongoing  obsession with micro-managing the stock market.
After an ill-conceived December bump in its fed funds rate, the Fed turned on a dime to change policy to promise it has the Street’s back in the event the market tanks before or during the presidential election.
Without cutting its rate, the Fed was able to verbally goose stocks out of a 20% Q4 plunge and orchestrate a 28% rebound.
Next Wednesday, it will announce its decision to cut its rate or to hold at 2.5%, which in June it said it would hold through 2021 unless the economy deteriorates.
Obviously, the Street expects a cut, it has been buying aggressively.
The Street and public would be better served if the Fed did not hype the market, promising rate cuts while claiming the “economy was in  a good place.”
IF THE FED SEES A RECESSION ON THE HORIZON, THE LAST THING IT SHOULD HAVE  DONE IS ENCOURAGE INVESTORS TO BUY.
We have never had a recession without a bear market. We have had bear markets without recessions.

Trust the market to find the  comfort level that discounts known and perceived negatives and positives.
………………………………………………
Tuesday   (July 23)   “Market Bubbling Over ????”

Even in face of a pending horrendous earnings report, Boeing’s (BA) stock is up sharply over the last 10 days.  Axios reports BA will post a $5 billion after-tax charge in Q2, after the grounding of its 737 Max jets by Southwest (LUV), American (AAL) and United (UAL).
Its Plans to buy back are on hold while  its chief competitor, Europe’s Airbus, has delivered 150 jets to airlines so far this year.
Perhaps, the Street is overlooking BA’s present problems, but are BA’s problems over ?
This is late stage bull market arrogance. We have seen it at market tops before.
There were some very savvy investment professionals  turned bearish in Q 4 last year.  That obviously contributed to the 20% shellacking the market took in 2018’s final three months.
At the time their bearishness was believable – the market was falling  out of bed.
Also, at the time, the Fed was raising interest rates with three planned for this year.
But signs of a recession were surfacing and the Fed reversed from restrictive to ease and the stock market took off recouping all of its Q4 loss.
My two most respected sources are urging readers to sit close to the exit, which I have been doing for many months.
There is only so much that can be said about risk at market tops (few listen; likewise there is only so much that can be said at market bottoms about opportunity (few listen).
………………………………………………

Monday   (July 22, 2019)
Street Betting on Rate Cut -Is It Already Priced-In ?
      Finally, the long-awaited FOMC meeting and decision by the Fed to cut its Fed funds rate.
The S&P 500 is up 20% since late December mostly due to Fed hype about its policy change and likelihood of a rate cut, but no action – yet.
The question the Street hasn’t asked is why would the Fed do this ?
The long and short answer is the same, the Fed feels compelled to prevent a recession, especially in a presidential election year.
A recession would be devastating to President Trump’s re-election.
A lot of very smart economists and market analysts are forecasting a recession, and have the stats to back it up.
      That would mean stocks, which are historically more over-valued than at any time in history except the 2000 dot-com bubble burst, is vulnerable to a big setback.
The Street does not want the party to end and may be overplaying its hand.
This kind of tunnel vision occurs at market tops.
The only way to protect one’s portfolio is to maintain a cash reserve in line with their tolerance for risk, because the new normal for corrections and bear market appears to be a sharp, steep plunge in prices that does not give investors a chance to raise cash once it starts.
That is hard to do when the market keeps edging up
…………………………………………………….
Friday    (July 19)  “Drop in Leading Economic Indicators – a Warning”
June’s Leading Economic  Indicators (LEI) posted its biggest decline in three years, a reminder to investors the 10-year economic expansion is slowing, and may be in the early stages of recession.
Based on 10 key components of economic health, the LEI dropped 0.3% in June. New orders for manufacturing, housing permits and unemployment insurance filings contributed to the decline.
The index has been struggling since February as March and April posted gains of only 0.1% and May was zero.
The S&P 500 is one of the 10, so it was not a drag on the index.
On that subject, the most reliable “leading” indicator of a recession is the stock market, turning up prior to economic recoveries and down prior to the beginning of recessions.
Recent strength in stock prices reflects the Street’s expectation of a fed funds rate cut on the 31st (next Wednesday).
……………………………………………………………
Thursday  (July 18) “Why, Oh Why, Would the Fed Cut Rates ???”

The Street has celebrated a cut in the Fed funds rate on the 31st in advance, without considering two things.  One, it may not happen.  Two, the Fed would be doing so to head off a recession.
No recession has ever occurred without a bear market accompanying it. In fact, Fed interest rate cuts have preceded all  recessions in the last 50 years.
So why the celebration ?
       Does the Street believe the Fed can prevent a recession ?
Possible !
       If it can’t, the stock market is headed south, especially since it is significantly overpriced. Based on the Shiller price/earnings ratio, the S&P 500 is pricier than at any time ever except the 2000 – 2002 bubble-burst fiasco, which triggered a 50% drop in the S&P 500 (78% drop Nasdaq Comp.).
Buyers of stocks are seeking some kind of yield, since that is no longer possible in bonds.  That’s fine so long as an investor doesn’t see the value of their stocks drop 20% or more.
At some point, buyers will walk away, realizing paying up for stocks with the risk of recession running high. That will contribute to a downdraft in stocks. That will trigger selling in stocks. That will be the beginning of a bear market.
There are no “new eras.” Reality rules. At best, the Fed can delay a recession/bear market, it will happen.
………………………………………………..
What No One on Wall Street Wants to Hear
>We are in the late innings of an economic expansion, so a recession is a good bet. The current expansion started in June 2009, has lasted 120 months, the longest  in history, twice as long as the average length of 11 cycles since 1945.
> Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months.  The unemployment rate is 3.6% which was hit in May.  Technically, we won’t know when the start of the current recession is official for months after the fact, since that conclusion is  reached by the Nat’l Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and they consider  host of economic indicators.
>Bear markets lead the beginning of recessions by 3 to 12 months.  The current bull market at 123 months is 4 times the average of the last 15 bulls going back to 1957
 >Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
George Brooks
Investor’s first read.com
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Impeachment Proceedings Would Trigger a Bear Market

INVESTOR’S first read.com – Daily edge before the open
DJIA :27,269
S&P 500: 3,019
Nasdaq Comp.:8,321
Russell 2000: 1,580
Thursday July 25, 2019
  9:17 a.m.
………………………..
gbifr79@gmail.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

TODAY:
The initial reaction to the Mueller testimony yesterday was seen by both sides as a ho-hummer, short on optics and new news.
A closer look at questions and answers indicates it provided the fodder for impeachment proceedings and that could be the first time the Street realizes another four years of Trump is at risk.
While the U.S. Senate would never vote to convict, the Republican Party may decide it must quickly run someone else or risk losing the presidency and the Senate.
More than two-thirds of this bull market’s gain of 353% has occurred under a Democrat president (Obama), but its extension has occurred since the election of Trump at a time the stock market was becoming overbought on a historical basis.
It is soooo much more overvalued today with the Shiller price/earnings ratio higher than at any time  ever except the  ridiculous dot-com bubble burst in 2000.
At the time, the Street and everyone else expected  the market to keep surging.  It didn’t, the S&P 500 dropped 50% and the Nasdaq Comp. dropped 78%.
         I am trying here to build a case for a sizable cash reserve of 30% – 50% or higher if  an investor sees a need for cash in the near future (college, retirement, big purchase) and cannot ride out an extended bear market which can, and will begin without notice.
…………………………………………….
TECHNICAL
Minor Support: DJIA:27,227; S&P 500:3,014;Nasdaq Comp.:8,311
Minor Resistance: DJIA:27,351; S&P500:3,027;Nasdaq Comp.:8,339

………………………………………….
Wednesday   (July 24) “Full-Blown-Bubble-Buy Mode…. Until…POP !

Special Counsel Robert Mueller testifies before Congress today starting at 8:30. To date, the Street could care less about politics or national events.
The Street has been  in full-blown-bubble-buy mode since late December. Don’t get in its way, the Street wants to continue to party.
At some point it will be last call, then drink up, bar closing, but not until far too many late-comers barge in to buy………… at the top.
This has been a tough top to call thanks to the Fed’s ongoing  obsession with micro-managing the stock market.
After an ill-conceived December bump in its fed funds rate, the Fed turned on a dime to change policy to promise it has the Street’s back in the event the market tanks before or during the presidential election.
Without cutting its rate, the Fed was able to verbally goose stocks out of a 20% Q4 plunge and orchestrate a 28% rebound.
Next Wednesday, it will announce its decision to cut its rate or to hold at 2.5%, which in June it said it would hold through 2021 unless the economy deteriorates.
Obviously, the Street expects a cut, it has been buying aggressively.
The Street and public would be better served if the Fed did not hype the market, promising rate cuts while claiming the “economy was in  a good place.”
IF THE FED SEES A RECESSION ON THE HORIZON, THE LAST THING IT SHOULD HAVE  DONE IS ENCOURAGE INVESTORS TO BUY.
We have never had a recession without a bear market. We have had bear markets without recessions.

Trust the market to find the  comfort level that discounts known and perceived negatives and positives.
………………………………………………
Tuesday   (July 23)   “Market Bubbling Over ????”

Even in face of a pending horrendous earnings report, Boeing’s (BA) stock is up sharply over the last 10 days.  Axios reports BA will post a $5 billion after-tax charge in Q2, after the grounding of its 737 Max jets by Southwest (LUV), American (AAL) and United (UAL).
Its Plans to buy back are on hold while  its chief competitor, Europe’s Airbus, has delivered 150 jets to airlines so far this year.
Perhaps, the Street is overlooking BA’s present problems, but are BA’s problems over ?
This is late stage bull market arrogance. We have seen it at market tops before.
There were some very savvy investment professionals  turned bearish in Q 4 last year.  That obviously contributed to the 20% shellacking the market took in 2018’s final three months.
At the time their bearishness was believable – the market was falling  out of bed.
Also, at the time, the Fed was raising interest rates with three planned for this year.
But signs of a recession were surfacing and the Fed reversed from restrictive to ease and the stock market took off recouping all of its Q4 loss.
My two most respected sources are urging readers to sit close to the exit, which I have been doing for many months.
There is only so much that can be said about risk at market tops (few listen; likewise there is only so much that can be said at market bottoms about opportunity (few listen).
………………………………………………

Monday   (July 22, 2019)
Street Betting on Rate Cut -Is It Already Priced-In ?
      Finally, the long-awaited FOMC meeting and decision by the Fed to cut its Fed funds rate.
The S&P 500 is up 20% since late December mostly due to Fed hype about its policy change and likelihood of a rate cut, but no action – yet.
The question the Street hasn’t asked is why would the Fed do this ?
The long and short answer is the same, the Fed feels compelled to prevent a recession, especially in a presidential election year.
A recession would be devastating to President Trump’s re-election.
A lot of very smart economists and market analysts are forecasting a recession, and have the stats to back it up.
      That would mean stocks, which are historically more over-valued than at any time in history except the 2000 dot-com bubble burst, is vulnerable to a big setback.
The Street does not want the party to end and may be overplaying its hand.
This kind of tunnel vision occurs at market tops.
The only way to protect one’s portfolio is to maintain a cash reserve in line with their tolerance for risk, because the new normal for corrections and bear market appears to be a sharp, steep plunge in prices that does not give investors a chance to raise cash once it starts.
That is hard to do when the market keeps edging up
…………………………………………………….
Friday    (July 19)  “Drop in Leading Economic Indicators – a Warning”
June’s Leading Economic  Indicators (LEI) posted its biggest decline in three years, a reminder to investors the 10-year economic expansion is slowing, and may be in the early stages of recession.
Based on 10 key components of economic health, the LEI dropped 0.3% in June. New orders for manufacturing, housing permits and unemployment insurance filings contributed to the decline.
The index has been struggling since February as March and April posted gains of only 0.1% and May was zero.
The S&P 500 is one of the 10, so it was not a drag on the index.
On that subject, the most reliable “leading” indicator of a recession is the stock market, turning up prior to economic recoveries and down prior to the beginning of recessions.
Recent strength in stock prices reflects the Street’s expectation of a fed funds rate cut on the 31st (next Wednesday).
……………………………………………………………
Thursday  (July 18) “Why, Oh Why, Would the Fed Cut Rates ???”

The Street has celebrated a cut in the Fed funds rate on the 31st in advance, without considering two things.  One, it may not happen.  Two, the Fed would be doing so to head off a recession.
No recession has ever occurred without a bear market accompanying it. In fact, Fed interest rate cuts have preceded all  recessions in the last 50 years.
So why the celebration ?
       Does the Street believe the Fed can prevent a recession ?
Possible !
       If it can’t, the stock market is headed south, especially since it is significantly overpriced. Based on the Shiller price/earnings ratio, the S&P 500 is pricier than at any time ever except the 2000 – 2002 bubble-burst fiasco, which triggered a 50% drop in the S&P 500 (78% drop Nasdaq Comp.).
Buyers of stocks are seeking some kind of yield, since that is no longer possible in bonds.  That’s fine so long as an investor doesn’t see the value of their stocks drop 20% or more.
At some point, buyers will walk away, realizing paying up for stocks with the risk of recession running high. That will contribute to a downdraft in stocks. That will trigger selling in stocks. That will be the beginning of a bear market.
There are no “new eras.” Reality rules. At best, the Fed can delay a recession/bear market, it will happen.
………………………………………………..
What No One on Wall Street Wants to Hear
>We are in the late innings of an economic expansion, so a recession is a good bet. The current expansion started in June 2009, has lasted 120 months, the longest  in history, twice as long as the average length of 11 cycles since 1945.
> Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months.  The unemployment rate is 3.6% which was hit in May.  Technically, we won’t know when the start of the current recession is official for months after the fact, since that conclusion is  reached by the Nat’l Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and they consider  host of economic indicators.
>Bear markets lead the beginning of recessions by 3 to 12 months.  The current bull market at 123 months is 4 times the average of the last 15 bulls going back to 1957
 >Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
George Brooks
Investor’s first read.com
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Full-Blown-Bubble-Buy Mode….Until….POP !

INVESTOR’S first read.com – Daily edge before the open
DJIA :27,349
S&P 500: 3,005
Nasdaq Comp.:8,251
Russell 2000: 1,554
Wednesday July 24, 2019
  8:09 a.m.
………………………..
gbifr79@gmail.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

TODAY:
      Special Counsel Robert Mueller testifies before Congress today starting at 8:30. To date, the Street could care less about politics or national events.
The Street has been  in full-blown-bubble-buy mode since late December. Don’t get in its way, the Street wants to continue to party.
At some point it will be last call, then drink up, bar closing, but not until far too many late-comers barge in to buy………… at the top.
This has been a tough top to call thanks to the Fed’s ongoing  obsession with micro-managing the stock market.
After an ill-conceived December bump in its fed funds rate, the Fed turned on a dime to change policy to promise it has the Street’s back in the event the market tanks before or during the presidential election.
Without cutting its rate, the Fed was able to verbally goose stocks out of a 20% Q4 plunge and orchestrate a 28% rebound.
Next Wednesday, it will announce its decision to cut its rate or to hold at 2.5%, which in June it said it would hold through 2021 unless the economy deteriorates.
Obviously, the Street expects a cut, it has been buying aggressively.
The Street and public would be better served if the Fed did not hype the market, promising rate cuts while claiming the “economy was in  a good place.”
IF THE FED SEES A RECESSION ON THE HORIZON, THE LAST THING IT SHOULD HAVE  DONE IS ENCOURAGE INVESTORS TO BUY.
We have never had a recession without a bear market. We have had bear markets without recessions.

Trust the market to find the  comfort level that discounts known and perceived negatives and positives.
…………………………………………….
TECHNICAL
Minor Support: DJIA:27,156; S&P 500:2,467;Nasdaq Comp.:8,177
Minor Resistance: DJIA:27,351; S&P500:3000;Nasdaq Comp.:8,217

………………………………………….
Tuesday   (July 23)   “Market Bubbling Over ????”

Even in face of a pending horrendous earnings report, Boeing’s (BA) stock is up sharply over the last 10 days.  Axios reports BA will post a $5 billion after-tax charge in Q2, after the grounding of its 737 Max jets by Southwest (LUV), American (AAL) and United (UAL).
Its Plans to buy back are on hold while  its chief competitor, Europe’s Airbus, has delivered 150 jets to airlines so far this year.
Perhaps, the Street is overlooking BA’s present problems, but are BA’s problems over ?
This is late stage bull market arrogance. We have seen it at market tops before.
There were some very savvy investment professionals  turned bearish in Q 4 last year.  That obviously contributed to the 20% shellacking the market took in 2018’s final three months.
At the time their bearishness was believable – the market was falling  out of bed.
Also, at the time, the Fed was raising interest rates with three planned for this year.
But signs of a recession were surfacing and the Fed reversed from restrictive to ease and the stock market took off recouping all of its Q4 loss.
My two most respected sources are urging readers to sit close to the exit, which I have been doing for many months.
There is only so much that can be said about risk at market tops (few listen; likewise there is only so much that can be said at market bottoms about opportunity (few listen).
………………………………………………

Monday   (July 22, 2019)
Street Betting on Rate Cut -Is It Already Priced-In ?
      Finally, the long-awaited FOMC meeting and decision by the Fed to cut its Fed funds rate.
The S&P 500 is up 20% since late December mostly due to Fed hype about its policy change and likelihood of a rate cut, but no action – yet.
The question the Street hasn’t asked is why would the Fed do this ?
The long and short answer is the same, the Fed feels compelled to prevent a recession, especially in a presidential election year.
A recession would be devastating to President Trump’s re-election.
A lot of very smart economists and market analysts are forecasting a recession, and have the stats to back it up.
      That would mean stocks, which are historically more over-valued than at any time in history except the 2000 dot-com bubble burst, is vulnerable to a big setback.
The Street does not want the party to end and may be overplaying its hand.
This kind of tunnel vision occurs at market tops.
The only way to protect one’s portfolio is to maintain a cash reserve in line with their tolerance for risk, because the new normal for corrections and bear market appears to be a sharp, steep plunge in prices that does not give investors a chance to raise cash once it starts.
That is hard to do when the market keeps edging up
…………………………………………………….
Friday    (July 19)  “Drop in Leading Economic Indicators – a Warning”
June’s Leading Economic  Indicators (LEI) posted its biggest decline in three years, a reminder to investors the 10-year economic expansion is slowing, and may be in the early stages of recession.
Based on 10 key components of economic health, the LEI dropped 0.3% in June. New orders for manufacturing, housing permits and unemployment insurance filings contributed to the decline.
The index has been struggling since February as March and April posted gains of only 0.1% and May was zero.
The S&P 500 is one of the 10, so it was not a drag on the index.
On that subject, the most reliable “leading” indicator of a recession is the stock market, turning up prior to economic recoveries and down prior to the beginning of recessions.
Recent strength in stock prices reflects the Street’s expectation of a fed funds rate cut on the 31st (next Wednesday).
……………………………………………………………
Thursday  (July 18) “Why, Oh Why, Would the Fed Cut Rates ???”

The Street has celebrated a cut in the Fed funds rate on the 31st in advance, without considering two things.  One, it may not happen.  Two, the Fed would be doing so to head off a recession.
No recession has ever occurred without a bear market accompanying it. In fact, Fed interest rate cuts have preceded all  recessions in the last 50 years.
So why the celebration ?
       Does the Street believe the Fed can prevent a recession ?
Possible !
       If it can’t, the stock market is headed south, especially since it is significantly overpriced. Based on the Shiller price/earnings ratio, the S&P 500 is pricier than at any time ever except the 2000 – 2002 bubble-burst fiasco, which triggered a 50% drop in the S&P 500 (78% drop Nasdaq Comp.).
Buyers of stocks are seeking some kind of yield, since that is no longer possible in bonds.  That’s fine so long as an investor doesn’t see the value of their stocks drop 20% or more.
At some point, buyers will walk away, realizing paying up for stocks with the risk of recession running high. That will contribute to a downdraft in stocks. That will trigger selling in stocks. That will be the beginning of a bear market.
There are no “new eras.” Reality rules. At best, the Fed can delay a recession/bear market, it will happen.
………………………………………………..
Wednesday (July 17)    “Street Awaits Q2 Earnings + Fed Rate Cut”

Q2 earnings will have an impact on stocks this month.  FactSet is expecting S&P 500 Q2 earnings to decline  3.0%, however for all of 2019, it is forecasting a gain of 4.3%.
Any growth better or worse than that will impact the market accordingly.
At this point, the Fed calls the shots.  It has not done anything with interest rates, but is expected to cut its fed funds rate on July 31.
The Fed  has managed to run stock prices up 28% since Late December with rhetoric alone after it abruptly changed Fed policy from restraint to ease, surprisingly days after raising its rate December 19 !!
While the Fed is responding to a global foot race to cut interest  rates (some to negative), in face of global economic weakness, I think the US Fed sees a recession looming and wants to head it off before 2020, a presidential election year.
      No recession has ever occurred without a bear market, which tend to start  (and end) before a recession is officially declared.
      FYI: generally, a recession is declared after two consecutive declines in the GDP. Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) makes that decision bases on a host of data, and with a lag time of months.
What to do: The market is pricey !  But speculative fever is running high so it can go higher.  At these levels, RISK is high, and the new normal for stock prices is for sharp corrections rather than slow trending ones. A cash reserve of 30%-35% is a good idea.
…………………………………………………….
Tuesday     (July 16)
If the Fed Can Prevent a Recession
First, re-read yesterday’s post below.
     If the Fed can prevent a recession with an  interest rate/QE policy,
we won’t have a bear market, but will have corrections of 5% – 11% from time to time,  assuming  we don’t have a runaway speculative binge leading to a bubble burst and correction in excess of 30%.
This happened at the 2000 – 2002  dot-com bull market top, one which led to a 50% drop in the S&P 500 and 78% plunge in Nasdaq Comp. index.
Currently the Shiller cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is 30.74, 85% above its historic mean.  The high for the S&P’s P/E in the dot-com boom was 44.19, hit in December 1999.
Today’s market is not driven by hundreds of  absurdly overpriced stocks as was the case in 2000 – 2002, so a P/E of 44 won’t be achieved.
Clearly, the Fed has the Street’s back. Any major decline will be met with Fed action or just verbal hype up to a point.
         If the fed fails to prevent a recession, we will have a bear market, and all those investors who rushed it to buy at current levels will get hammered.
………………………………………………
Monday  (July 14)
There Has Never Been a Recession Without a Bear Market

ONE: There is one reason
the Fed abruptly reversed its interest rate policy from restraint to ease – It sees a serious risk of RECESSION.

TWO: There has never been a recession that has NOT been accompanied by a bear market (decline ranging from S&P 500 20% to 55%). There have been bear markets that were NOT accompanied by recessions ( 1961-1962, 1966, 1971, 1987).

The buyers’ panic we are seeing now, which started  four days ago with Fed hints of a rate cut and with the S&P 500 more overvalued than at any time except the  2000-2002, dot-com bubble burst (S&P 500 down 50%, Nasdaq Comp. down 78%) has all the makings of  becoming another a bubble burst.

In January, the Fed reversed policy to one of “ease” when the S&P 500 plunged 20% in Q4. Since then, it has nurtured the stock market back up with hints of a rate cut and misleading comments about stock values and the economy’s health.

Obviously, the Street is assuming the Fed will be able to prevent a recession, ergo, the heavy buying.  If they are wrong, we will have a nasty bear market which will be devastating to all investors especially, those rushing in to buy at these levels.

Even if the Fed can prevent a recession, stocks are pricey at these levels.
…………………………………………………
What No One on Wall Street Wants to Hear
>We are in the late innings of an economic expansion, so a recession is a good bet. The current expansion started in June 2009, has lasted 120 months, the longest  in history, twice as long as the average length of 11 cycles since 1945.
> Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months.  The unemployment rate is 3.6% which was hit in May.  Technically, we won’t know when the start of the current recession is official for months after the fact, since that conclusion is  reached by the Nat’l Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and they consider  host of economic indicators.
>Bear markets lead the beginning of recessions by 3 to 12 months.  The current bull market at 123 months is 4 times the average of the last 15 bulls going back to 1957
 >Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
George Brooks
Investor’s first read.com
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Market Bubbling Over ?????

INVESTOR’S first read.com – Daily edge before the open
DJIA :27,171
S&P 500: 2,985
Nasdaq Comp.:8,204
Russell 2000: 1,547
Tuesday  July 23, 2019
  8:02 a.m.
………………………..
gbifr79@gmail.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

TODAY:
      Even in face of a pending horrendous earnings report, Boeing’s (BA) stock is up sharply over the last 10 days.  Axios reports BA will post a $5 billion after-tax charge in Q2, after the grounding of its 737 Max jets by Southwest (LUV), American (AAL) and United (UAL).
Its Plans to buy back are on hold while  its chief competitor, Europe’s Airbus, has delivered 150 jets to airlines so far this year.
Perhaps, the Street is overlooking BA’s present problems, but are BA’s problems over ?
This is late stage bull market arrogance. We have seen it at market tops before.
There were some very savvy investment professionals  turned bearish in Q 4 last year.  That obviously contributed to the 20% shellacking the market took in 2018’s final three months.
At the time their bearishness was believable – the market was falling  out of bed.
Also, at the time, the Fed was raising interest rates with three planned for this year.
But signs of a recession were surfacing and the Fed reversed from restrictive to ease and the stock market took off recouping all of its Q4 loss.
My two most respected sources are urging readers to sit close to the exit, which I have been doing for many months.
There is only so much that can be said about risk at market tops (few listen; likewise there is only so much that can be said at market bottoms about opportunity (few listen).

…………………………………………….
TECHNICAL
Minor Support: DJIA:27,147; S&P 500:2,983;Nasdaq Comp.:8,201
Minor Resistance: DJIA:27,267; S&P500:2,990;Nasdaq Comp.:8,229

………………………………………….
Monday   (July 22, 2019)
Street Betting on Rate Cut -Is It Already Priced-In ?
      Finally, the long-awaited FOMC meeting and decision by the Fed to cut its Fed funds rate.
The S&P 500 is up 20% since late December mostly due to Fed hype about its policy change and likelihood of a rate cut, but no action – yet.
The question the Street hasn’t asked is why would the Fed do this ?
The long and short answer is the same, the Fed feels compelled to prevent a recession, especially in a presidential election year.
A recession would be devastating to President Trump’s re-election.
A lot of very smart economists and market analysts are forecasting a recession, and have the stats to back it up.
      That would mean stocks, which are historically more over-valued than at any time in history except the 2000 dot-com bubble burst, is vulnerable to a big setback.
The Street does not want the party to end and may be overplaying its hand.
This kind of tunnel vision occurs at market tops.
The only way to protect one’s portfolio is to maintain a cash reserve in line with their tolerance for risk, because the new normal for corrections and bear market appears to be a sharp, steep plunge in prices that does not give investors a chance to raise cash once it starts.
That is hard to do when the market keeps edging up
…………………………………………………….
Friday    (July 19)  “Drop in Leading Economic Indicators – a Warning”
June’s Leading Economic  Indicators (LEI) posted its biggest decline in three years, a reminder to investors the 10-year economic expansion is slowing, and may be in the early stages of recession.
Based on 10 key components of economic health, the LEI dropped 0.3% in June. New orders for manufacturing, housing permits and unemployment insurance filings contributed to the decline.
The index has been struggling since February as March and April posted gains of only 0.1% and May was zero.
The S&P 500 is one of the 10, so it was not a drag on the index.
On that subject, the most reliable “leading” indicator of a recession is the stock market, turning up prior to economic recoveries and down prior to the beginning of recessions.
Recent strength in stock prices reflects the Street’s expectation of a fed funds rate cut on the 31st (next Wednesday).
……………………………………………………………
Thursday  (July 18) “Why, Oh Why, Would the Fed Cut Rates ???”

The Street has celebrated a cut in the Fed funds rate on the 31st in advance, without considering two things.  One, it may not happen.  Two, the Fed would be doing so to head off a recession.
No recession has ever occurred without a bear market accompanying it. In fact, Fed interest rate cuts have preceded all  recessions in the last 50 years.
So why the celebration ?
       Does the Street believe the Fed can prevent a recession ?
Possible !
       If it can’t, the stock market is headed south, especially since it is significantly overpriced. Based on the Shiller price/earnings ratio, the S&P 500 is pricier than at any time ever except the 2000 – 2002 bubble-burst fiasco, which triggered a 50% drop in the S&P 500 (78% drop Nasdaq Comp.).
Buyers of stocks are seeking some kind of yield, since that is no longer possible in bonds.  That’s fine so long as an investor doesn’t see the value of their stocks drop 20% or more.
At some point, buyers will walk away, realizing paying up for stocks with the risk of recession running high. That will contribute to a downdraft in stocks. That will trigger selling in stocks. That will be the beginning of a bear market.
There are no “new eras.” Reality rules. At best, the Fed can delay a recession/bear market, it will happen.
………………………………………………..
Wednesday (July 17)    “Street Awaits Q2 Earnings + Fed Rate Cut”

Q2 earnings will have an impact on stocks this month.  FactSet is expecting S&P 500 Q2 earnings to decline  3.0%, however for all of 2019, it is forecasting a gain of 4.3%.
Any growth better or worse than that will impact the market accordingly.
At this point, the Fed calls the shots.  It has not done anything with interest rates, but is expected to cut its fed funds rate on July 31.
The Fed  has managed to run stock prices up 28% since Late December with rhetoric alone after it abruptly changed Fed policy from restraint to ease, surprisingly days after raising its rate December 19 !!
While the Fed is responding to a global foot race to cut interest  rates (some to negative), in face of global economic weakness, I think the US Fed sees a recession looming and wants to head it off before 2020, a presidential election year.
      No recession has ever occurred without a bear market, which tend to start  (and end) before a recession is officially declared.
      FYI: generally, a recession is declared after two consecutive declines in the GDP. Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) makes that decision bases on a host of data, and with a lag time of months.
What to do: The market is pricey !  But speculative fever is running high so it can go higher.  At these levels, RISK is high, and the new normal for stock prices is for sharp corrections rather than slow trending ones. A cash reserve of 30%-35% is a good idea.
…………………………………………………….
Tuesday     (July 16)
If the Fed Can Prevent a Recession
First, re-read yesterday’s post below.
     If the Fed can prevent a recession with an  interest rate/QE policy,
we won’t have a bear market, but will have corrections of 5% – 11% from time to time,  assuming  we don’t have a runaway speculative binge leading to a bubble burst and correction in excess of 30%.
This happened at the 2000 – 2002  dot-com bull market top, one which led to a 50% drop in the S&P 500 and 78% plunge in Nasdaq Comp. index.
Currently the Shiller cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is 30.74, 85% above its historic mean.  The high for the S&P’s P/E in the dot-com boom was 44.19, hit in December 1999.
Today’s market is not driven by hundreds of  absurdly overpriced stocks as was the case in 2000 – 2002, so a P/E of 44 won’t be achieved.
Clearly, the Fed has the Street’s back. Any major decline will be met with Fed action or just verbal hype up to a point.
         If the fed fails to prevent a recession, we will have a bear market, and all those investors who rushed it to buy at current levels will get hammered.
………………………………………………
Monday  (July 14)
There Has Never Been a Recession Without a Bear Market

ONE: There is one reason
the Fed abruptly reversed its interest rate policy from restraint to ease – It sees a serious risk of RECESSION.

TWO: There has never been a recession that has NOT been accompanied by a bear market (decline ranging from S&P 500 20% to 55%). There have been bear markets that were NOT accompanied by recessions ( 1961-1962, 1966, 1971, 1987).

The buyers’ panic we are seeing now, which started  four days ago with Fed hints of a rate cut and with the S&P 500 more overvalued than at any time except the  2000-2002, dot-com bubble burst (S&P 500 down 50%, Nasdaq Comp. down 78%) has all the makings of  becoming another a bubble burst.

In January, the Fed reversed policy to one of “ease” when the S&P 500 plunged 20% in Q4. Since then, it has nurtured the stock market back up with hints of a rate cut and misleading comments about stock values and the economy’s health.

Obviously, the Street is assuming the Fed will be able to prevent a recession, ergo, the heavy buying.  If they are wrong, we will have a nasty bear market which will be devastating to all investors especially, those rushing in to buy at these levels.

Even if the Fed can prevent a recession, stocks are pricey at these levels.
…………………………………………………
What No One on Wall Street Wants to Hear
>We are in the late innings of an economic expansion, so a recession is a good bet. The current expansion started in June 2009, has lasted 120 months, the longest  in history, twice as long as the average length of 11 cycles since 1945.
> Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months.  The unemployment rate is 3.6% which was hit in May.  Technically, we won’t know when the start of the current recession is official for months after the fact, since that conclusion is  reached by the Nat’l Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and they consider  host of economic indicators.
>Bear markets lead the beginning of recessions by 3 to 12 months.  The current bull market at 123 months is 4 times the average of the last 15 bulls going back to 1957
 >Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
George Brooks
Investor’s first read.com
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Street Expecting Rate Cut – Is It Already Priced In ?

INVESTOR’S first read.com – Daily edge before the open
DJIA :27154
S&P 500: 2,976
Nasdaq Comp.:8,146
Russell 2000: 1,547
Monday July 22, 2019
  9:02 a.m.
………………………..
gbifr79@gmail.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

TODAY:
Finally, the long-awaited FOMC meeting and decision by the Fed to cut its Fed funds rate.
The S&P 500 is up 20% since late December mostly due to Fed hype about its policy change and likelihood of a rate cut, but no action – yet.
The question the Street hasn’t asked is why would the Fed do this ?
The long and short answer is the same, the Fed feels compelled to prevent a recession, especially in a presidential election year.
A recession would be devastating to President Trump’s re-election.
A lot of very smart economists and market analysts are forecasting a recession, and have the stats to back it up.
      That would mean stocks, which are historically more over-valued than at any time in history except the 2000 dot-com bubble burst, is vulnerable to a big setback.
The Street does not want the party to end and may be overplaying its hand.
This kind of tunnel vision occurs at market tops.
The only way to protect one’s portfolio is to maintain a cash reserve in line with their tolerance for risk, because the new normal for corrections and bear market appears to be a sharp, steep plunge in prices that does not give investors a chance to raise cash once it starts.
That is hard to do when the market keeps edging up
…………………………………………….
TECHNICAL
Minor Support: DJIA:27,073; S&P 500:2,752;Nasdaq Comp.:8,123
Minor Resistance: DJIA:27,243; S&P500:2,986;Nasdaq Comp.:8,171

………………………………………….
Friday    (July 19)  “Drop in Leading Economic Indicators – a Warning”
June’s Leading Economic  Indicators (LEI) posted its biggest decline in three years, a reminder to investors the 10-year economic expansion is slowing, and may be in the early stages of recession.
Based on 10 key components of economic health, the LEI dropped 0.3% in June. New orders for manufacturing, housing permits and unemployment insurance filings contributed to the decline.
The index has been struggling since February as March and April posted gains of only 0.1% and May was zero.
The S&P 500 is one of the 10, so it was not a drag on the index.
On that subject, the most reliable “leading” indicator of a recession is the stock market, turning up prior to economic recoveries and down prior to the beginning of recessions.
Recent strength in stock prices reflects the Street’s expectation of a fed funds rate cut on the 31st (next Wednesday).
……………………………………………………………
Thursday  (July 18) “Why, Oh Why, Would the Fed Cut Rates ???”

The Street has celebrated a cut in the Fed funds rate on the 31st in advance, without considering two things.  One, it may not happen.  Two, the Fed would be doing so to head off a recession.
No recession has ever occurred without a bear market accompanying it. In fact, Fed interest rate cuts have preceded all  recessions in the last 50 years.
So why the celebration ?
       Does the Street believe the Fed can prevent a recession ?
Possible !
       If it can’t, the stock market is headed south, especially since it is significantly overpriced. Based on the Shiller price/earnings ratio, the S&P 500 is pricier than at any time ever except the 2000 – 2002 bubble-burst fiasco, which triggered a 50% drop in the S&P 500 (78% drop Nasdaq Comp.).
Buyers of stocks are seeking some kind of yield, since that is no longer possible in bonds.  That’s fine so long as an investor doesn’t see the value of their stocks drop 20% or more.
At some point, buyers will walk away, realizing paying up for stocks with the risk of recession running high. That will contribute to a downdraft in stocks. That will trigger selling in stocks. That will be the beginning of a bear market.
There are no “new eras.” Reality rules. At best, the Fed can delay a recession/bear market, it will happen.
………………………………………………..
Wednesday (July 17)    “Street Awaits Q2 Earnings + Fed Rate Cut”

Q2 earnings will have an impact on stocks this month.  FactSet is expecting S&P 500 Q2 earnings to decline  3.0%, however for all of 2019, it is forecasting a gain of 4.3%.
Any growth better or worse than that will impact the market accordingly.
At this point, the Fed calls the shots.  It has not done anything with interest rates, but is expected to cut its fed funds rate on July 31.
The Fed  has managed to run stock prices up 28% since Late December with rhetoric alone after it abruptly changed Fed policy from restraint to ease, surprisingly days after raising its rate December 19 !!
While the Fed is responding to a global foot race to cut interest  rates (some to negative), in face of global economic weakness, I think the US Fed sees a recession looming and wants to head it off before 2020, a presidential election year.
      No recession has ever occurred without a bear market, which tend to start  (and end) before a recession is officially declared.
      FYI: generally, a recession is declared after two consecutive declines in the GDP. Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) makes that decision bases on a host of data, and with a lag time of months.
What to do: The market is pricey !  But speculative fever is running high so it can go higher.  At these levels, RISK is high, and the new normal for stock prices is for sharp corrections rather than slow trending ones. A cash reserve of 30%-35% is a good idea.
…………………………………………………….
Tuesday     (July 16)
If the Fed Can Prevent a Recession
First, re-read yesterday’s post below.
     If the Fed can prevent a recession with an  interest rate/QE policy,
we won’t have a bear market, but will have corrections of 5% – 11% from time to time,  assuming  we don’t have a runaway speculative binge leading to a bubble burst and correction in excess of 30%.
This happened at the 2000 – 2002  dot-com bull market top, one which led to a 50% drop in the S&P 500 and 78% plunge in Nasdaq Comp. index.
Currently the Shiller cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is 30.74, 85% above its historic mean.  The high for the S&P’s P/E in the dot-com boom was 44.19, hit in December 1999.
Today’s market is not driven by hundreds of  absurdly overpriced stocks as was the case in 2000 – 2002, so a P/E of 44 won’t be achieved.
Clearly, the Fed has the Street’s back. Any major decline will be met with Fed action or just verbal hype up to a point.
         If the fed fails to prevent a recession, we will have a bear market, and all those investors who rushed it to buy at current levels will get hammered.
………………………………………………
Monday  (July 14)
There Has Never Been a Recession Without a Bear Market

ONE: There is one reason
the Fed abruptly reversed its interest rate policy from restraint to ease – It sees a serious risk of RECESSION.

TWO: There has never been a recession that has NOT been accompanied by a bear market (decline ranging from S&P 500 20% to 55%). There have been bear markets that were NOT accompanied by recessions ( 1961-1962, 1966, 1971, 1987).

The buyers’ panic we are seeing now, which started  four days ago with Fed hints of a rate cut and with the S&P 500 more overvalued than at any time except the  2000-2002, dot-com bubble burst (S&P 500 down 50%, Nasdaq Comp. down 78%) has all the makings of  becoming another a bubble burst.

In January, the Fed reversed policy to one of “ease” when the S&P 500 plunged 20% in Q4. Since then, it has nurtured the stock market back up with hints of a rate cut and misleading comments about stock values and the economy’s health.

Obviously, the Street is assuming the Fed will be able to prevent a recession, ergo, the heavy buying.  If they are wrong, we will have a nasty bear market which will be devastating to all investors especially, those rushing in to buy at these levels.

Even if the Fed can prevent a recession, stocks are pricey at these levels.
…………………………………………………
What No One on Wall Street Wants to Hear
>We are in the late innings of an economic expansion, so a recession is a good bet. The current expansion started in June 2009, has lasted 120 months, the longest  in history, twice as long as the average length of 11 cycles since 1945.
> Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months.  The unemployment rate is 3.6% which was hit in May.  Technically, we won’t know when the start of the current recession is official for months after the fact, since that conclusion is  reached by the Nat’l Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and they consider  host of economic indicators.
>Bear markets lead the beginning of recessions by 3 to 12 months.  The current bull market at 123 months is 4 times the average of the last 15 bulls going back to 1957
 >Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
George Brooks
Investor’s first read.com
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Drop in Leading Economic Indicators – A Warning Sign

INVESTOR’S first read.com – Daily edge before the open
DJIA :27,222
S&P 500: 2,995
Nasdaq Comp.:8,207
Russell 2000: 1,555
Friday July 19, 2019
  9:22 a.m.
………………………..
gbifr79@gmail.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

TODAY:
June’s Leading Economic  Indicators (LEI) posted its biggest decline in three years, a reminder to investors the 10-year economic expansion is slowing, and may be in the early stages of recession.
Based on 10 key components of economic health, the LEI dropped 0.3% in June. New orders for manufacturing, housing permits and unemployment insurance filings contributed to the decline.
The index has been struggling since February as March and April posted gains of only 0.1% and May was zero.
The S&P 500 is one of the 10, so it was not a drag on the index.
On that subject, the most reliable “leading” indicator of a recession is the stock market, turning up prior to economic recoveries and down prior to the beginning of recessions.
Recent strength in stock prices reflects the Street’s expectation of a fed funds rate cut on the 31st (next Wednesday).
…………………………………………….
TECHNICAL
Minor Support: DJIA:27,246; S&P 500:2,997;Nasdaq Comp.:8,214
Minor Resistance: DJIA:27,318; S&P500:3,004;Nasdaq Comp.:8,213

………………………………………….
Thursday  (July 18) “Why, Oh Why, Would the Fed Cut Rates ???”

The Street has celebrated a cut in the Fed funds rate on the 31st in advance, without considering two things.  One, it may not happen.  Two, the Fed would be doing so to head off a recession.
No recession has ever occurred without a bear market accompanying it. In fact, Fed interest rate cuts have preceded all  recessions in the last 50 years.
So why the celebration ?
       Does the Street believe the Fed can prevent a recession ?
Possible !
       If it can’t, the stock market is headed south, especially since it is significantly overpriced. Based on the Shiller price/earnings ratio, the S&P 500 is pricier than at any time ever except the 2000 – 2002 bubble-burst fiasco, which triggered a 50% drop in the S&P 500 (78% drop Nasdaq Comp.).
Buyers of stocks are seeking some kind of yield, since that is no longer possible in bonds.  That’s fine so long as an investor doesn’t see the value of their stocks drop 20% or more.
At some point, buyers will walk away, realizing paying up for stocks with the risk of recession running high. That will contribute to a downdraft in stocks. That will trigger selling in stocks. That will be the beginning of a bear market.
There are no “new eras.” Reality rules. At best, the Fed can delay a recession/bear market, it will happen.
………………………………………………..
Wednesday (July 17)    “Street Awaits Q2 Earnings + Fed Rate Cut”

Q2 earnings will have an impact on stocks this month.  FactSet is expecting S&P 500 Q2 earnings to decline  3.0%, however for all of 2019, it is forecasting a gain of 4.3%.
Any growth better or worse than that will impact the market accordingly.
At this point, the Fed calls the shots.  It has not done anything with interest rates, but is expected to cut its fed funds rate on July 31.
The Fed  has managed to run stock prices up 28% since Late December with rhetoric alone after it abruptly changed Fed policy from restraint to ease, surprisingly days after raising its rate December 19 !!
While the Fed is responding to a global foot race to cut interest  rates (some to negative), in face of global economic weakness, I think the US Fed sees a recession looming and wants to head it off before 2020, a presidential election year.
      No recession has ever occurred without a bear market, which tend to start  (and end) before a recession is officially declared.
      FYI: generally, a recession is declared after two consecutive declines in the GDP. Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) makes that decision bases on a host of data, and with a lag time of months.
What to do: The market is pricey !  But speculative fever is running high so it can go higher.  At these levels, RISK is high, and the new normal for stock prices is for sharp corrections rather than slow trending ones. A cash reserve of 30%-35% is a good idea.
…………………………………………………….
Tuesday     (July 16)
If the Fed Can Prevent a Recession
First, re-read yesterday’s post below.
     If the Fed can prevent a recession with an  interest rate/QE policy,
we won’t have a bear market, but will have corrections of 5% – 11% from time to time,  assuming  we don’t have a runaway speculative binge leading to a bubble burst and correction in excess of 30%.
This happened at the 2000 – 2002  dot-com bull market top, one which led to a 50% drop in the S&P 500 and 78% plunge in Nasdaq Comp. index.
Currently the Shiller cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is 30.74, 85% above its historic mean.  The high for the S&P’s P/E in the dot-com boom was 44.19, hit in December 1999.
Today’s market is not driven by hundreds of  absurdly overpriced stocks as was the case in 2000 – 2002, so a P/E of 44 won’t be achieved.
Clearly, the Fed has the Street’s back. Any major decline will be met with Fed action or just verbal hype up to a point.
         If the fed fails to prevent a recession, we will have a bear market, and all those investors who rushed it to buy at current levels will get hammered.
………………………………………………
Monday  (July 14)
There Has Never Been a Recession Without a Bear Market

ONE: There is one reason
the Fed abruptly reversed its interest rate policy from restraint to ease – It sees a serious risk of RECESSION.

TWO: There has never been a recession that has NOT been accompanied by a bear market (decline ranging from S&P 500 20% to 55%). There have been bear markets that were NOT accompanied by recessions ( 1961-1962, 1966, 1971, 1987).

The buyers’ panic we are seeing now, which started  four days ago with Fed hints of a rate cut and with the S&P 500 more overvalued than at any time except the  2000-2002, dot-com bubble burst (S&P 500 down 50%, Nasdaq Comp. down 78%) has all the makings of  becoming another a bubble burst.

In January, the Fed reversed policy to one of “ease” when the S&P 500 plunged 20% in Q4. Since then, it has nurtured the stock market back up with hints of a rate cut and misleading comments about stock values and the economy’s health.

Obviously, the Street is assuming the Fed will be able to prevent a recession, ergo, the heavy buying.  If they are wrong, we will have a nasty bear market which will be devastating to all investors especially, those rushing in to buy at these levels.

Even if the Fed can prevent a recession, stocks are pricey at these levels.
………………………………………………………………………
Friday    (July 12) “Oh My, Not Another Perfect Storm”
Three of the Dow’s 30 stocks, Goldman Sachs (GS +4.54), United Healthcare (UNH +12.41), and Boeing (BA +6.65) accounted for 160 points of the Dow’s 227-point rise (70%) yesterday, while the broader based S&P 500  advanced less than a third as much, the Nasdaq Comp. declined as did the unweighted Value Line Composite.
Yesterday, the DJIA gave the impression the market was hotter than it was, and that distortion could be a warning sign.
This is the fourth time the DJIA and S&P 500 have probed this area since January 2018 after interim  plunges of 12% (Jan/Feb 2018); 20% (Q4 2018) and 8% (May/June 2019).
       The last two rebounds were mostly orchestrated by comments by Fed Chief Jerome Powell who came close to guaranteeing the Street the Fed will cut interest rates.
Again, I ask – WHY does the Fed see a need to cut rates ?
Again, I add -the Fed must expect a recession, and clearly they don’t want that to happen just prior to, or during a presidential election year.
         Sooooo, at least verbally, the Fed is talking the stock market up, sucking investors in to stocks even knowing there is a high risk of recession conditions that have always hammered stocks.
The responsible thing to do
would be to outline what the economy’s problems are -manufacturing, home building costs (tariffs), consumer spend, excess debt at all levels, and risk for equities.
With interest rates tanking, investors are seeking a return in stocks, which thanks to Fed hype, are providing that through appreciation and to a lesser degree– a dividend yield.
Ironically, it is the institutions who are getting sucker punched this time, the little guy has been selling having sold $25 billion of stocks in the week ending July 2 as the market was hitting new highs.
Yet, another PERFECT STORM !
…………………………………………………

What No One on Wall Street Wants to Hear
>We are in the late innings of an economic expansion, so a recession is a good bet. The current expansion started in June 2009, has lasted 120 months, the longest  in history, twice as long as the average length of 11 cycles since 1945.
> Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months.  The unemployment rate is 3.6% which was hit in May.  Technically, we won’t know when the start of the current recession is official for months after the fact, since that conclusion is  reached by the Nat’l Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and they consider  host of economic indicators.
>Bear markets lead the beginning of recessions by 3 to 12 months.  The current bull market at 123 months is 4 times the average of the last 15 bulls going back to 1957
 >Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
George Brooks
Investor’s first read.com
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why, Oh Why Would the Fed Cut Rates ????

INVESTOR’S first read.com – Daily edge before the open
DJIA :27,219
S&P 500: 2,984
Nasdaq Comp.:8,185
Russell 2000: 1,550
Thursday July 18, 2019
   8:27 a.m.
………………………..
gbifr79@gmail.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

TODAY:
The Street has celebrated a cut in the Fed funds rate on the 31st in advance, without considering two things.  One, it may not happen.  Two, the Fed would be doing so to head off a recession.
No recession has ever occurred without a bear market accompanying it. In fact, Fed interest rate cuts have preceded all  recessions in the last 50 years.
So why the celebration ?
       Does the Street believe the Fed can prevent a recession ?
Possible !
       If it can’t, the stock market is headed south, especially since it is significantly overpriced. Based on the Shiller price/earnings ratio, the S&P 500 is pricier than at any time ever except the 2000 – 2002 bubble-burst fiasco, which triggered a 50% drop in the S&P 500 (78% drop Nasdaq Comp.).
Buyers of stocks are seeking some kind of yield, since that is no longer possible in bonds.  That’s fine so long as an investor doesn’t see the value of their stocks drop 20% or more.
At some point, buyers will walk away, realizing paying up for stocks with the risk of recession running high. That will contribute to a downdraft in stocks. That will trigger selling in stocks. That will be the beginning of a bear market.
There are no “new eras.” Reality rules. At best, the Fed can delay a recession/bear market, it will happen.
…………………………………………….
TECHNICAL
Minor Support: DJIA:27,157; S&P 500:2,987;Nasdaq Comp.:8,168
Minor Resistance: DJIA:27,251; S&P500:2,989;Nasdaq Comp.:8,193

………………………………………….
Wednesday (July 17)    “Street Awaits Q2 Earnings + Fed Rate Cut”

Q2 earnings will have an impact on stocks this month.  FactSet is expecting S&P 500 Q2 earnings to decline  3.0%, however for all of 2019, it is forecasting a gain of 4.3%.
Any growth better or worse than that will impact the market accordingly.
At this point, the Fed calls the shots.  It has not done anything with interest rates, but is expected to cut its fed funds rate on July 31.
The Fed  has managed to run stock prices up 28% since Late December with rhetoric alone after it abruptly changed Fed policy from restraint to ease, surprisingly days after raising its rate December 19 !!
While the Fed is responding to a global foot race to cut interest  rates (some to negative), in face of global economic weakness, I think the US Fed sees a recession looming and wants to head it off before 2020, a presidential election year.
      No recession has ever occurred without a bear market, which tend to start  (and end) before a recession is officially declared.
      FYI: generally, a recession is declared after two consecutive declines in the GDP. Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) makes that decision bases on a host of data, and with a lag time of months.
What to do: The market is pricey !  But speculative fever is running high so it can go higher.  At these levels, RISK is high, and the new normal for stock prices is for sharp corrections rather than slow trending ones. A cash reserve of 30%-35% is a good idea.

 

Tuesday     (July 16)
If the Fed Can Prevent a Recession
First, re-read yesterday’s post below.
     If the Fed can prevent a recession with an  interest rate/QE policy,
we won’t have a bear market, but will have corrections of 5% – 11% from time to time,  assuming  we don’t have a runaway speculative binge leading to a bubble burst and correction in excess of 30%.
This happened at the 2000 – 2002  dot-com bull market top, one which led to a 50% drop in the S&P 500 and 78% plunge in Nasdaq Comp. index.
Currently the Shiller cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is 30.74, 85% above its historic mean.  The high for the S&P’s P/E in the dot-com boom was 44.19, hit in December 1999.
Today’s market is not driven by hundreds of  absurdly overpriced stocks as was the case in 2000 – 2002, so a P/E of 44 won’t be achieved.
Clearly, the Fed has the Street’s back. Any major decline will be met with Fed action or just verbal hype up to a point.
         If the fed fails to prevent a recession, we will have a bear market, and all those investors who rushed it to buy at current levels will get hammered.

    

 

Monday  (July 14)
There Has Never Been a Recession Without a Bear Market

ONE: There is one reason
the Fed abruptly reversed its interest rate policy from restraint to ease – It sees a serious risk of RECESSION.

TWO: There has never been a recession that has NOT been accompanied by a bear market (decline ranging from S&P 500 20% to 55%). There have been bear markets that were NOT accompanied by recessions ( 1961-1962, 1966, 1971, 1987).

The buyers’ panic we are seeing now, which started  four days ago with Fed hints of a rate cut and with the S&P 500 more overvalued than at any time except the  2000-2002, dot-com bubble burst (S&P 500 down 50%, Nasdaq Comp. down 78%) has all the makings of  becoming another a bubble burst.

In January, the Fed reversed policy to one of “ease” when the S&P 500 plunged 20% in Q4. Since then, it has nurtured the stock market back up with hints of a rate cut and misleading comments about stock values and the economy’s health.

Obviously, the Street is assuming the Fed will be able to prevent a recession, ergo, the heavy buying.  If they are wrong, we will have a nasty bear market which will be devastating to all investors especially, those rushing in to buy at these levels.

Even if the Fed can prevent a recession, stocks are pricey at these levels.
………………………………………………………………………
Friday    (July 12) “Oh My, Not Another Perfect Storm”
Three of the Dow’s 30 stocks, Goldman Sachs (GS +4.54), United Healthcare (UNH +12.41), and Boeing (BA +6.65) accounted for 160 points of the Dow’s 227-point rise (70%) yesterday, while the broader based S&P 500  advanced less than a third as much, the Nasdaq Comp. declined as did the unweighted Value Line Composite.
Yesterday, the DJIA gave the impression the market was hotter than it was, and that distortion could be a warning sign.
This is the fourth time the DJIA and S&P 500 have probed this area since January 2018 after interim  plunges of 12% (Jan/Feb 2018); 20% (Q4 2018) and 8% (May/June 2019).
       The last two rebounds were mostly orchestrated by comments by Fed Chief Jerome Powell who came close to guaranteeing the Street the Fed will cut interest rates.
Again, I ask – WHY does the Fed see a need to cut rates ?
Again, I add -the Fed must expect a recession, and clearly they don’t want that to happen just prior to, or during a presidential election year.
         Sooooo, at least verbally, the Fed is talking the stock market up, sucking investors in to stocks even knowing there is a high risk of recession conditions that have always hammered stocks.
The responsible thing to do
would be to outline what the economy’s problems are -manufacturing, home building costs (tariffs), consumer spend, excess debt at all levels, and risk for equities.
With interest rates tanking, investors are seeking a return in stocks, which thanks to Fed hype, are providing that through appreciation and to a lesser degree– a dividend yield.
Ironically, it is the institutions who are getting sucker punched this time, the little guy has been selling having sold $25 billion of stocks in the week ending July 2 as the market was hitting new highs.
Yet, another PERFECT STORM !
………………………………………………….

Thursday  (July 11)  “Fed – Drunk With Power ?”

Should the Fed intentionally drive up stock prices at a time it has changed its interest rate policy to head off a recession ?
If this is not intentional, these bankers are clueless about risk.
The Fed’s rhetoric was mostly responsible for turning  the market around in January after a 20%, Q4 plunge in the S&P 500 last year, likewise after a 7.6% plunge in May/June.
But why now with the market averages at all-time highs should it soft-peddle the increasing evidence of a recession with comments like, “a number of government policy issues have yet to be resolved, including trade  developments, the federal debt ceiling, and Brexit ?”
Why not tell it like it is ?  The 10-year economic recovery is over.  Global economies are slumping.
LET THE STOCK MARKET FIND A LEVEL THAT DISCOUNTS THE REAL PROBLEMS LOOMING OUT THERE.
TELL US, WE CAN HANDLE IT. THE MARKET WILL TRADE LOWER, BUT WILL EVENTUALLY WHEN THE TRUTH IS KNOWN.
        Lower rates help borrowers, but hurts people on fixed income. Borrowing at the individual, corporate and government is uncomfortably high, so more borrowing to goose the economy is limited.
The Fed claims independence, Fed Chief Powell denies he is political, but is doing everything to head off a recession in a presidential election year, and sustain a bull market on top of that.
It is what it is. My problem is all this rhetoric is driving stocks up, sucking investors in at a time business sucks and that IS NOT IN ANYONE’s INTEREST —-except the BIG money which is probably selling into the strength. Damn !
………………………………………….
Wednesday    (July 10)
Today, it’s all about Fed Chief Powell, who testifies  before the House Financial Services Committee today.
The Street is hoping for a clue how the Fed will rule on cutting the Fed Funds rate July 31.
Expectations were running high for a cut until a better than expected Jobs report threatened move the Fed away from a cut which might be premature if the economy is getting a second wind.
Powell has been catching flack from President Trump for not cutting rates sooner.  While Powell denied Trump’s pressure is influencing his decision, he and his directors have verbally rescued stocks on two occasions.
A Rate cut decision will come at the end of the month, and the market is up at this time, so I doubt he will say much to goose stocks higher.
The Fed must be careful here, its credibility is at risk after its reversal in January after a December rate cut.
……………………………………………..
Tuesday  (July 9)
As long as the Street’s computer algorithms are programmed to buy at the market and on dips, the market will  avoid a bear market.

At some point, the outlook for the economy and corporate earnings will become bleak so bleak these algos will have to be reprogrammed to adjust for risk by selling.  Since many of these institutions key on the same indicators, they will all begin selling at the same time.
This selling  pressure combined  with a sudden absence of buying will take the market straight down  12% -16%.
That becomes the juncture where the Street will decide how bad things really are. If the economic outlook is worsening, the market will have to sell off enough to adjust for that, you then have a bear market – down 35% – 45%.
At its extreme,  very few of the gutsiest investors will be buying, just like very few are selling now assured the institutions’ algos will not let a bear market happen.
WHEN ?
At some point, some major institutions will break ranks and sell, setting off a stampede.  There is no good reason for the S&P 500 to sell at 30 times earnings when a recession looms, corporate earnings are turning  negative, debt at the individual, corporate and government level is too high, a Mid-East war possible, and uncertainty escalating about the ability of our government to address pressing problems.
……………………………………….
What No One on Wall Street Wants to Hear
>We are in the late innings of an economic expansion, so a recession is a good bet. The current expansion started in June 2009, has lasted 120 months, the longest  in history, twice as long as the average length of 11 cycles since 1945.
> Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months.  The unemployment rate is 3.6% which was hit in May.  Technically, we won’t know when the start of the current recession is official for months after the fact, since that conclusion is  reached by the Nat’l Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) and they consider  host of economic indicators.
>Bear markets lead the beginning of recessions by 3 to 12 months.  The current bull market at 123 months is 4 times the average of the last 15 bulls going back to 1957
 >Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
George Brooks
Investor’s first read.com
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.