G20: Both Countries Feeling Tariff PAIN

INVESTORS first read.com – Daily edge before the open           
DJIA: 25,338
S&P 500:2,737
Nasdaq Com.:7,223
Russell 2000: 1,525
Friday , November 30,  2018  9:19 a.m.

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gbifr79@gmail.com

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WARNING ! When the market gets hammered, expect the Trump administration and Wall Streeters to crank out anything that resembles good news that could stop the carnage.  Ignore them. This is often the trigger for bear market rallies that suck investors in before the next move down.
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Market Status: 
      Center stage: This weekend’s G20 meeting in Buenos Aires, especially the Saturday meet between President Trump and China President  Xi Jinping are critical.
      Obviously the outcome will have major consequences for both countries, both feeling the adverse impact of a  trade war started last March by Trump when he imposed tariffs on imported aluminum and steel.
      China retaliated with levies on U.S. exports of soybeans, and wheat. It escalated from there to the point Trump wants to the point that today the U.S. duties comprise $250 billion on Chinese imports with  a 10% tariff on $200 billion of those goods that will rise to 25% next year.  Additionally Trump is threatening to impose tariffs on the remaining $267 billion of Chinese imports.
      What does this mean for stock prices ?
      Logic says the two countries will agree to negotiate further after some token concessions.  If that is the case the stock market will remain stable. If Trump takes the hard line, the market will take a hit.
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This has to be said again !
      Fed Chief Powell’s moon walk Wednesday was disappointing, though not surprising.  The Fed has always loved the POWER, especially at market turns.  They wielded for the good in the 2007-2009 meltdown, then  irresponsibly in Obama’s second administration by overstaying QE and its zero-based interest rate policy, giving the Street a green light for its algo-driven, cruise control buy bias that drove stocks to lofty levels for Donald Trump’s Presidency.
      Fed Chief Powell’s comments Wednesday that, “There is no preset policy path,” adding the Fed will assess the most recent economic and financial data in deciding whether  or how fast to keep raising rates. 
      Nonsense !  Based on the huge cycle swings in the Fed’s benchmark fed funds rate, there is an incontrovertible pattern of ‘preset policy.”
      Additionally, Powell said, “We do not see dangerous excesses in the stock market…that no major asset class is significantly inflated.” 
       More nonsense.  Equities are over priced, and individual, corporate and government debt at uncomfortable high levels as noted below and interest rates are rising making debt service more difficult.
      I knew this was coming, especially after Trump’s criticism – no brainer.
The Fed has clout, they must use it wisely – CREDIBILITY is key.
This behavior has 000000000000000000000000000 credibility
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 Economic Status: Late stage expansion with recession starting in late 2019. Bull markets hit peak 6 to 12 months ahead of recessions. Republicans were in White House in 9 of  the last 10 recessions. Their rosy projections ignore the likelihood of a recession within a year to 18 months. Housing and auto industries already in recession. The crunch can gain momentum ahead of schedule. U.S. fiscal crisis looms 2-3 years out.
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TECHNICAL OBSERVATIONS FOR “TRADERS” FAVORITES    

All the growth stocks listed below, except possibly Apple have registered turning patterns and can be expected to move higher over the near-to-intermediate term.  The following support levels must hold or the downtrend  that has persisted in recent months will be renewed.
      This whole exercise was to find a price level that would stop the carnage of the growth stocks.  If these support levels are broken, I will pick up on these stocks again.

FB: 126; AMZN: 1,470; NFLX: 250; GOOG:1,005; AAPL: 170.
Coverage will not continue unless these stocks become high risks again.
Apple is the one at greatest risk with 158 a possibility

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THE MARKET TODAY
       Expect the market to respond to rumors or expectations coming out of the G20 meeting.  The most important would be about TARIFFS.  Both the U.S. and China are feeling the pinch, but other than “words” what real action will occur.
       I expect Trump and Xi to agree to agree at some point in the future
      There is no reason for Trump to be in a hurry to yield – no election nearterm.  I can see the market rising in anticipation of progress, only to be disappointed by the end result.  This is a global stage for both Trump and Xi, neither will yield a lot.
       Trump’s  trade  war is adversely impacting the corporate decision process, investment in plant, and equipment, supply chains and the bottom line. This is on top of rising interest rates and slowing global demand.
       CNBC has reported a study by ImpactECON that Trump’s tariffs could cost American households  $2,400 in 2019 the form of higher prices, lower wages and lower investment returns. 
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      TECHNICAL OBSERVATION:
      After Fed Chair Powell’s cave-in to Trump on interest rate policy yesterday, we are left with  a high risk decision.
 
        Do we buy expecting  the Fed to follow up with more hype of the market  running to  new highs  and risk of this being one of the great “Bear Traps” of all times where investors rush in to pay up for rising prices only to see the market plunge again ?
        Or will the Street feel it is safe to return to their aggressive buy programs.  It’s the end of the year. Groups that were depressed last year will be attractive, overbought groups will see profit taking, all that has already been taking place.
        Adding to the equation is the outcome of the G20 meeting in Buenos Aires which starts today.  The highlight is the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping.

       Then too, the Street hopes for a breakthrough in Trump’s disastrous tariff tiff with China, it’s past the ouch point here and abroad.
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        That said, this rally can run higher than I expected. I would now say resistance will start at (DJIA: 25,575, S&P 500: 2,775, Nasdaq Comp.:7,2717,495.
         It all depends on how powellful the Fed is.  If this is a big green light to return to a cruise-control buy mode, we will go to new highs.
        What happens at the G20 meeting is anyone’s guess. The market has rallied in face of the Fed’s reassuring comments on interest rate policy, good news coming out of the G20 meeting could take it much higher.
        Bad news would correct some of the gains the double bottom on stock prices (DJIA, S&P 500, Nasdaq Comp.) posted five days ago, but the Feds hold the cards here, even though they are expected to bump rates Dec.18th.

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Technical Note: Frequently, there is what I refer to as a mid-afternoon counter move (2:30 – 3:00 where the market rallies or declines against the prevailing trend for the day.   This can be a fake out for investors thinking the market has turned (up or down).
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        A. Gary Shilling  just turned bearish in his November issue, headlining his issue of “INSUGHT“ with “Looming Recession ?”   I have tracked Shilling for decades. He nailed the 2007 – 2009 Great Recession Bear Market before anyone else. For him to suddenly turn negative is  a shocker.  He details his reasons in a 50-page analysis that  is overwhelming in detail and backed up with stats and graphs. No one in my experience has more economic/investing integrity than Shilling. 
 
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IMPORTANT NOTES: How high is high, how long is long
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Through September, this bull market is 116 months old, or 3.5 times longer than the average of the last  15  bull markets..
>Bear markets start 6 – 12 months ahead of the onset of a recession.  
>Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House
>The current economic expansion has lasted 123 months. That’s 65 months (2.1x) longer than the average expansion (58.4 months) going back to 1945.
>Of the 10 recessions since 1950,the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was 3.8 Months.
> Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months. 
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Bear Market Perspective

      Officially, we are not in a bear market until the S&P 500 declines 20% (2,352).  That would translate into DJIA 21,560 – “ouch” !
       That’s the minimum drop for a bear, but the last two bears crushed the S&P 500 by 57% (2007-2009) and 50% (2000-2002).  
My bear market target would be declines of
      DJIA: 18,500 (-31.4%)
      S&P 500 :  2,150 (-27.0%)
      Nasdaq Comp.:5,200 (-36.1%)
      But, depending on what new negatives hit the market when it gets down there, the bear market could reach much, much  lower levels.
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EARNINGS GROWTH MYTH:
       The Street is counting on earnings growth to reduce the overvaluation of equities.   Look again.

       A 20% increase in S&P 500 earnings this year will  be tough to beat next year.  The quarter versus year ago quarters in 2019 will make poor reading going up against the 2018 earnings, possibly earnings growth around  5%. But the Street is not factoring in the likelihood of a recession, which could mean negative growth.
       At times, politics has little impact on the big  picture. This time is different.

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BULLISH CASE
      A sharp increase in corporate earnings is what the bulls are relying on to power the market higher.
      Q2 earnings increased 25.0% over a year ago.
      Thomson Reuters projects Q3’s increase in earnings to  hit 20.5% and Q4 18.0%.
      However 2019 is a different story with earnings increases of Q1: +7.0%, Q2: +5.1%, Q3: +5.9% and Q4: +3.9%, that averages out to +5.4%.
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BEARISH CASE
RISING INTEREST RATES:
      >The Fed is persistently raising its benchmark interest rate (federal funds), as well as reducing its inflated balance sheet,  which will drive other rates higher, which will adversely impact interest sensitive industries.  . 
      >The 10-year treasury has been rising steadily and now stands at 3.09%.
      > The yield curve is flattening as short-term treasuries rise faster than long-tern governments just another warning sign of impending recession.
 OVERVALUED MARKET
      > The onset of bear markets have led the beginning of recessions by 8.5 months going back to 1956, so don’t look for a recession to signal a bear market. The longest lead time was 13 months (1968 – 1969) The “mode” (most frequent) is 12 months.
       > If companies are buying back their own stock at a record clip, pushing stocks higher, why then are insiders selling $8 of stock for every $1 of stock they buy ?
       .> Companies took advantage of low interest rates to load up on debt in recent years for acquisitions and to buy back their own stock. Excluding banks, the tally is $6.3trillion. The downside of this comes when these companies will need to refinance this debt at higher interest rates when it comes due.
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       > The S&P 500 price to sales ratio at 2.30 is 40% higher than in 2007 before the devastating bear market, and is even higher than in March 2000 before the dot-com bubble burst leading to a bear market. Both bear markets dropped 50%.
       > The Shiller P/E is 31.5  times earnings versus a mean of 16.6.  Shiller’s P/E is based on  inflation adjusted earnings over 10 years.
       > The Total Market Capitalization to GDP  stands at 147.3%, anything above 115% is  considered “overvalued.”
        > Thompson Reuters reports the S&P 500 sells at 18.1 times earnings and 16.2 times a year from now. All this versus a 10-year average of 14.3.
AGING BULL MARKET:
       > The bull market is now  nine years and six months old (115 months).  That’s 3.5 times the average of the last 15 bull markets.
AGING ECONOMIC EXPANSION:
      > Republicans – the recession party. Nine of last 10 recession have been with a Republican in the White House.  Odds favor Trump will make 10 for 11.
      > The current economic expansion has lasted 112 months. That’s 53 months (1.9 x) longer than the average expansion going back to 1945.  Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House.
      > Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months. 
      > Housing stocks have been in a prolonged slump since January. The iShares  home construction ETF has dropped 20.5%, as interest rates rise. Not only is it  major employer, its health affects other industries, especially furniture and appliances..
      > Household debt increased for the 16th straight quarter to 13.3 trillion, that’s 19%  above the post-financial-crisis low.
      > Jamie Dimon, CEO J.P. Morgan Chase,  thinks the benchmark  10-yearTreasury note , now 2.95%, should be 5%. The rate impacts lending for autos, mortgages and businesses.
      > Personal loans have soared   18% to  a record 120 billion, Personal savings as percent of disposable income at 3%, down from 9% in 2012.
      > Low interest rates have encouraged US companies to go on a debt binge, amassing  $6.3 trillion. With rates on the increase, refinancing will get more costly, according to S&P analyst, Andrew Chang, who points out that this amounts to $8 for every $1 in cash.
      > Recently, 1,100 economists WARN Trump is repeating biggest mistakes of Great Depression – tariffs, trade protectionism, according to conservative National Taxpayers’ Union.
      > Former Fed Chair, Ben Bernanke, says economy to fall off a cliff in 2020, thanks to the $1.5 trillion corporate and individual tax cut and $300 billion increase in spending.              
TRUMP’S TRADE WAR TANTRUM
      > Trump’s tariff tiff costing  US companies a bundle:  The damage extends to manufacturers, input suppliers, fishermen, and numerous businesses who are finding it more difficult to sell abroad.
      > Today’s businesses are complex, especially supply chains that can involve a thousand parts that make up a whole product, many of which are sourced from different countries, sometimes crossing back and forth across the same border a number of times.
      >  Trump is considering leaving World Trade Organization (WTO).
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IMPLODING:
      So far, the stock market has not wavered in face of the increasing likelihood, Trump and many present and former associates are in legal trouble.
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POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET

SUPREME STUPIDITY !
Trump vs. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts.  Rough guess here, but I would say Roberts thumps Trump every time they get in the ring.
Trump bashed  a decision by the Ninth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for ruling that the administration must consider claims of asylum regardless of where migrants cross the border, which rejected Trump’s wishes. He accused the court of bias blaming an  “Obama judge” for the ruling.  Roberts retaliated claiming the Court doesn’t have Obama, Bush, Clinton, or Trump judges.  …that an independent judiciary is something we should be thankful for.
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COWARDS ? Now is the time for the Republican-controlled Senate to do the American thing and protect the Special Counsel from  President Trump’s effort to undermine it.  This is no longer politics in general, this is about whether or not we are a nation of laws. Failure to do that, and I am convinced certain members of Congress are constitutional anarchists determined to destroy our republic.
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Rogue wave…. or monstrous blue wave ?
Real Americans are rising up to save our republic, and all the quality of life things worked and died for over the years.   After 2020, the right wing Republicans will be irrelevant, forced to climb back under the rock from which they emerged.
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What in the  Hell is wrong with us ?  These Central American peoples of all ages are willing to trek thousands of miles to attempt to enter America, and we are sending troops to back up border control to deny them legal entrance.  SHAME on our President, the selfish Republican party.  By their admirable efforts, they are demonstrating the kind of resolve we want in our workforce.
Christian ?   No, freaking way.  Our leaders are the epitome of  the  anti-Christ !  Hypocrites and un-American at heart ! 
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Trump has proposed a  5 percent budget cut for each Cabinet agency yesterday.
     Wait just a minute !
Didn’t Congress pass a $1.3trillion catchall spending bill earlier in the year after passing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in December, which gave corporations a 40% tax cut, and was skewed heavily in favor of big earners with the rest of the country getting a cut around 1%.
      According to the Treasury Dept. the federal deficit for FY Sept. 30 was $779 billion, up 17% from a year ago primarily due to the shortfall in revenues from corporations as a result of their huge tax cuts.
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Bath Iron Works (Maine) Gets $3.9 billion Navy Award 7 days before Sen. Collin’s “Yes” Vote for Kavanaugh
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      Reecntly, Bill Palmer, PalmerReports.com, gave his reason why Nikki Haley resigned from her post as United Nations Ambassador.

       The story was carried in more detail by the Business Insider.com, which points to her resignation one day after Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) requested the State Dept. investigate her acceptance of seven free flights aboard private jets  from three South Carolina business men.
      While she listed the flights on her 2017 financial disclosure, the information was incomplete according to CREW and did not qualify for an exemption.
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       Breaking: Concern that right wingers are set to rewrite the United States Constitution via an Article V Convention, or Amendments Convention, called by two-thirds of the state legislatures (34).  A three-quarter vote is required for an amendment to become part of the Constitution.   Reportedly, right wingers want to convert our system of government to a confederation of “supreme” states, essentially minimizing the present amount of federal control.
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Trump in hot water on tax evasion and the legitimacy of his inheritance ?
We’ll see !!
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     Since Deputy Atty Gen’l Rod Rosenstein would not fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller, assuming Trump first fired Rosenstein.
     On November 8, 2017, I noted Brian Benczkowski was nominated by President Trump in June [2017] to be U.S. Assistant Attorney General for the Criminal Division. Along party lines, he was confirmed by the Senate recently, raising the question would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein was fired and he  was appointed in his place. He said he would not recuse himself from  questions in the Mueller investigation.
     The big question mark here is that Benczkowski had represented Russia’s Alfa Bank at some point in the past and had no prosecutorial experience.  He had worked for Atty Gen’l Jeff Sessions and the Bush administration and was not opposed by Rosenstein.
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     Palmerreport.com believes Roger Stone will be the next person indicted/arrested by Special Counsel Robert Mueller.
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  As if Trump did not have enough problems, here comes Allen Weisselberg, long-time CFO of the Trump Organization and now a recipient of “immunity” from  the Attorney General of New York.
       This is especially significant, notes PalmerReports.com, since he is testifying about state level charges in addition to federal charges, which cannot be nullified by a Trump pardon.
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      NO ATTORNEY CLIENT PRIVILEGE: Palmerreport.com reminds readers that Trump has NO attorney-Client privilege with Ty Cobb who he hired on July 14, 2017 to help with the Russia scandal. To save personal funds, Trump put Cobb on the White House payroll, so Cobb is free to disclose any information Special Counsel Mueller wants him to.
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  I expect Attorney General Sessions to be fired or to resign any day now.  That puts Deputy Atty. Gen. Rod Rosenstein in jeopardy.  Will Brian Benszkowski be moved in the fill the void. Would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein were fired ?
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HEADS UP !   A majority vote in both the House and Senate can change the number of Justices on the Supreme Court. The number is fixed by statute, not by the Constitution. It has ranged between 6 and 10 since 1789.
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DAMN  IT !   I miss decency.
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“President” Trump has made 4,229 false (lies) and misleading claims since his inauguration. (Washington Post). …………………………………………………………………   
WOULD ANYONE WANT their spouse to lie repeatedly ?, their child ?, mother ?, father ?, minister ?, child’s teacher ?,  coach ?, employer ?.  IF NOT, why would they support President Trump who is on record with telling 4.5 lies per day,  4,200 lies since his inauguration on January 20 ?. 
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Trump boasts about the stock market in his first 31 months as President, but the S&P 500 appreciated 149% during President Obama’s first 31 months in office, 2 ½ times as it advanced under Trump, and Obama inherited the worst stock market/economic collapse since the 1930s, Trump inherited a strong stock market and economic recovery.
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The U.S. Chamber of Commerce currently estimates the impact of Trump tariffs on the following states stand to be: Louisiana ($5.2 bil.), Washington ($5.7 bil.), Texas ($1.4 bil.), S. Carolina ($2.6 bil.), Illinois ($2.1 bil.), California ($4.0 bil.), Kentucky ($917 mil.), Michigan (842 mil.), Ohio ($826 mil.).
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Orwellian: George Orwell’s 1984 wretched society was controlled by denial of the truth,  the dissemination of  misinformation, propaganda, and surveillance, i.e., Big Brother is watching.    “Just remember what you are seeing  and what you are reading is not what’s happening.” Trump  told the VFW July 24
“The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears…” George Orwell’s  dystopian novel – “1984”  published in 1949.
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A recent Gallup poll shows  how  people polled  would vote if the election were held today
Democrats      30%
Republicans   26%
Independents 40%

The key here is twofold. The Democrats must get their vote out, which may be difficult in face of Republican voter suppression. Then too, they need to get a lot  of the Independent vote, which will be helped as Americans see the Trump administration gut treasured institutions, regulations designed to ensure a better environment in the future, healthcare, and undermine time-tested, valued global alliances while cultivating the favor of enemies.
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Special Counsel Robert Mueller  must comply with regulations, rules, procedures, and policies of the Department of Justice as set forth in 28 CFR 600. He can only be removed for misconduct, dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, or other good cause, including violation of the Department’s policy.
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What Trump and his base have in common: They both deplore the same people – people of color, the handicapped, liberals, foreigners.
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VOTES FLIPPED for TRUMP  in Key States in 2016
      Daily Kos’ Aldous Pennyfarthing (Pen name for Tom Breuer)  gave reasons in Alternet.org, July 27, why he thinks the Russians [or someone] flipped votes for Trump in 2016.
      The basis for this conclusion was comparing exit polls with actual outcome in North Carolina Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
 Pennsylvania: Exit polls Clinton 50.5 – Trump 46.1.  Result: Clinton 46.1 –   Trump 48.8.
Wisconsin: Exit poll Clinton 48.2 – Trump 44.3  Result: Clinton 47.6 – Trump 48.8.
North Carolina: Exit poll Clinton  48.6 – Trump 46.5. Result: Clinton 46.1 – Trump 49.9.
      An FOI suit by Bradley Moss (cybersecurity lawyer) brought against the government  revealed Russians hacked inside voting systems in seven big states.
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Wake up out there. These aren’t conservative Republicans, they are anarchists, extremists  who have wrested control of the Republican party over the last 20 years and are intent on a party rule with no checks and balances.  This is  a bloodless coup.
If  they can lock up control of both Houses, the Presidency, Supreme Court and strategic lower court appointments, and a major news media broadcaster, survival of our republic will depend on whose side the military and police forces take.
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 Sinclair Broadcast Group  (BEWARE !)   
      Sinclair Broadcast Group is using its clout as owner of  193 television stations in 80 markets as a lever to manipulate local station viewers’ minds pitching it’s right wing propaganda. Viewers tend to trust local stations programing over national networks.  A July 16, 2018 FCC decision denied Sinclair’s acquisition of the Tribune Broadcast Group, which would have expanded its reach into New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago markets
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 Sinclair Bank (no relation to the broadcast  group) has surfaced as a lender to Michael Cohen, Jared Kushner, his father and Trump.  Ivanka Trump no longer on board. 
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        Treason is defined by Article 3, section 3: Treason, as levying war against the U.S., or in adhering to its enemy, namely aid and comfort, also defined as any act that deliberately strengthens or tends to strengthen enemies of the U.S. or that weakens the power of the U.S. to resist and attack such enemies.
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TRUMP’S BASE:  Some voted for Trump because they always vote Republican. Then there are those whose opinions are based on emotional disorders, those who will never accept the truth no matter what (Confirmation Bias); those who accept bad behavior as the norm (Deviancy Down); and those who while stupid, ill informed who actually believe they are highly intelligent, competent (Dunning Krueger). These people don’t have enough knowledge to know they don’t have enough knowledge, i.e.,too dumb to know they are dumb.(alternet.com 7/23/18)
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July 19, 2018: Republicans refuse to renew election security funding over Russian hacking – Democrats livid, as all of us should be. 
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The Dept. of Justice charged a Russian national, Mariia Butina, of illegally trying to influence American politics using the NRA, religious organizations  as a means of gaining backchannel access to the highest levels of the Republican Party.  Mother Jones says  Butina acted as a covert Russian agent, an unregistered foreign agent.
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      Since Deputy Atty Gen’l Rod Rosenstein would not fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller,   assuming Trump first fired Rosenstein.
     On November 8, I noted Brian Benczkowski was nominated by President Trump in June [2017] to be U.S. Assistant Attorney General for the Criminal Division. Along party lines, he was confirmed by the Senate recently, raising the question would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein was fired and he  was appointed in his place. He said he would not recuse himself from  questions in the Mueller investigation.
     The big question mark here is that Benczkowski had represented Russia’s Alfa Bank at some point in the past and had no prosecutorial experience.  He had worked for Atty Gen’l Jeff Sessions and the Bush administration and was not opposed by Rosenstein.

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A “MALEVOLENT FOOL” – Lt. Col. , Ret’d, Ralph Peters, ex-Fox analyst referring to Trump.   Malevolent: evil, harmful, injurious.
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Un-American ! Trump claims writers of U.S. Constitution treated Him unfairly, adding we have the worst constitution writers in the world…Russia has better constitution writers than we do, says Trump . “I talked with Putin, and he said their constitution never gives him problems.” Andy Borowitz, (The Borowitz Report).
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      WE DON”T WANT TO GO THERE !  The Trump administration is taking the United States straight to a place none of us wants to be – civil unrest,  an extended recession, a fiscal crisis where we can’t pay our bills, ergo the need to slash healthcare, safety net programs, a host of programs that have improved our quality of life.
      This administration’s actions on trade (tariffs, TPP), the intentional divisiveness of America along racial lines, and abandonment of our long-time allies have opened the door for China to dominate the world, economically and militarily.  That’s Un-American.  This has to be stopped.
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Republican strategist, Steve Schmidt, leaves Republican Party after 29 years, saying the party is “corrupt, indecent and immoral,” and with a few exceptions  elected  Republicans are “feckless cowards who disgrace and dishonor the legacies of the party’s greatest leaders.” Others quitting Republican Party: George Will, “Morning” Joe Scarborough. To date, 35 senior Trump advisers have left.
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President Donald Trump is NOT pro-business, he’s pro-Trump
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TRUMP EXIT STRATEGY: The most important thing for King Donald is his image.  Currently he is scrambling to initiate as many perceived accomplishments as possible (taxes, anti-immigrant, anti-allies, deregulation, North Korea, Iran, ISIS, unemployment).
      This way, if he is impeached, defeated in 2020, or forced to resign, he can claim to have been the greatest president of all-time – he’ll tweet it relentlessly, deviancy-downed Americans will believe it and every network in the country, whores that they are, (including MSNBC and CNN) will scramble to cover his tweets.  IMHO: he won’t risk losing in 2020, just not run – declare he has accomplished his mission and walk away.
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POSSIBLE ! That the blue wave won’t happen in November.  Why? The American voter is still zoned out about what is happening – too busy with other stuff, not capable of  objectively analyzing issues accurately without bias.
     The result: The extremist Republicans and their president will run the economy, a constructive foreign relations policy, and America’s quality of life into the ground.  In order to get the American voter’s attention, we have to hit bottom first.
      That means an extended recession, a fiscal crisis (unable to pay bills), a 65% drop in the stock market and,  national unrest greater than that which the Vietnam War attracted.
       We are witnessing the unfolding of  the biggest scandal in our country’s history, including illegal financial transactions, vote tampering and  untethered collusion and obstruction of  justice at the highest level.  This may take years to unravel.
      Again, I say “possible,” not probable..  Probable would be all that but not as severe.
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Corporations got a 40% tax cut, John and Jane Q get a 1.2% – 1.8% cut, even so, Trump plans to introduce a “rescission package” to cut $15 billion in already approved spending on the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation program, as well as 30 other programs. The  U.S. House will likely approve his  rescission  package, the Senate may not.
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According to Bloomberg.com, 1,100 economists warn that Trump is repeating one of the biggest mistakes of the Great Depression – tariffs and trade protectionism. The warning came in a letter from the conservative-leaning National Taxpayers Union.
      China loves it !  Trump opened the door, China entered, capitalizing on Trump’s regressive “America First” mantra, with its far reaching Belt and Road outreach with investments encompassing infrastructure, education, construction materials, rail and hi-way, auto, real estate, power grid and iron and steel investments to 68 countries, 65% of the world’s population and 40% of global GDP.
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      Kim took Trump’s war with North Korea option off the table, so looks like Trump now has his sights set on IRAN – to please his base, of course, in time for the mid-terms, of course
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North Korea give up nuclear weapons ?  Never !  Kim wants a global stage, so does Trump, who will not risk being embarrassed by the little tyrant. Trump will bail.  He needs a villain to trash to please his base. Kim has what he wants.  I think Trump has been played like a harp. 
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Impeachment of Trump unlikely with this Republican House. Trump has surrounded himself with newly appointed Cabinet members, so Section 4 of the 25th amendment is not a reality.   What’s left ?  A deal with Mueller for his RESIGNATION ?
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Must Read: “Will Christian Nationalism Drive Trump’s Base to the Polls in November ?”  Truthout April 15, Bill Berkowitz. This explains why his base of Christians votes for an immoral person, one whose behavior is the antithesis of the teachings of Christ.
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Will Trump  Fire Mueller

      Trump can’t fire Mueller directly, it must be done by the Department of Justice.  Trump would have to find someone to do it.  Nixon did it in 1973 when he had to work through two attorney generals until  his solicitor general, Robert Bork fired Special Prosecutor Archibald Cox. 
      Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein isn’t going to do it, so Trump must find someone from DOJ , or someone outside who has already been confirmed by the Senate who will do it.         Philip Bump, Washington Post (WAPO) April 10, did a great job outlining possibilities in, “Why Trump can’t fire Mueller – at least not directly.”  I can only touch on a few of his points here.
       In his article, Georgetown University’s professor Paul Butler raises the interesting point that  firing Mueller may not be necessary if  Rosenstein is replaced by someone hostile to the Special Counsel’s investigation.  He would simply force a stall with lots of demands, even leak information to the White House.   
       REASONS NEEDED TO FIRE MUELLER: Trump would have to have  good reason to fire Mueller.  Grounds must be, misconduct, dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, or other good cause, including violation of policies of the Department of Justice, and failure to follow Justice Departments guidelines and violation of applicable canons of ethics.
       CAN TRUMP RESCIND  SPECIAL COUNSEL REGULATION ?  Yes, it’s possible but many legal hurdles  would make it difficult and possibly so time consuming as to make the action worthless. There is no clear cut answer. This would be decided in court, the legal ramifications just very complex.
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FISCAL CRISIS LOOMS IN FUTURE:  Headlines:“Federal debt primed to explode”….”U.S. Deficit to Surpass $1 Trillion Two Years Ahead of Estimates”….”This Year’s budget deficit to hit $804 B after tax cuts and spending hikes”….
       This is all a Republican scheme to justify massive spending cuts to social, health, educational  and safety net programs. It is called “Starving the Beast,” and will lead to debilitating and prolonged recession/bear market, increased crime, rioting and civil unrest.  Republicans set the stage with massive, unnecessary tax cuts and a big budget spend (see below: “Corporate Tax Cut Irresponsible”)
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Cambridge Analytica (now in bankruptcy) is center stage again. Palmer.com  reports  someone behind the scenes is trying to block  Britain’s  Channel 4 News from airing an expose  into Cambridge’s role in using  Facebook (FB) to influence voters to vote for Trump and not Clinton.  On Friday,  Facebook  banned Cambridge’s access.  Palmer speculates the Mercers are behind the  attempt to prevent Channel 4’s expose.  I was on  Cambridge’s case back on June 22, 2017,  noting that billionaire Robert Mercer was connected to Cambridge through Canada’s Aggregate IQ through an intellectual property agreement and worked to influence voting  in the Brexit referendum.  Aggregate is a data mining company.  While Aggregate denies any connection,  the story won’t go away. Palmer sees a connection between Cambridge and John Bolton’s SUPER PAC.  Palmer notes that UK Parliament is investigating  the connection between Cambridge and Brexit and documents referred to by Cambridge whistleblower Christopher Wylie reveal  the firm gave stolen Facebook  user data to Bolton’s PAC  (receiving stolen goods ?), though it is not known how Bolton used the data if his PAC even received it.  (See below: Mercer on the run ?) …………………………………………….
Remember the name Felix Sater, former business associate of Trump, convicted  Russian mafia money laundering figure, and key FBI informant.
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Another name to watch is Ted Malloch who Palmer.com reports was served a subpoena relating to the Trump/Russia probe.  Malloch is a U. S. citizen living in London with close tire to Roger Stone, Brexit leader Nigel Farage and the Trump campaign.  As noted above in Cambridge Analytica, there is a connection to parties involved in Brexit and Trump’s campaign.
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George Nader  has long-standing ties in the Mid-East and Washington over many years.  What appears to be important here is he is cooperating with the Mueller probe not as a wrongdoer, but as a source of information.  He has had ties with the Trump administration through Steve Bannon  and reportedly attended a meeting in the Seychelles Islands January 11, 2017 along with Blackwater founder and former Trump associate, Eric Prince, and Kirill Dmitriev head of a U.S. sanctioned investment firm with close ties to Putin.  Reportedly Nader represented United Arab Emirates’ Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan.
      I referred to the Seychilles meeting on April 5, 2017 noting  the Washington Post reported the meeting was intended to encourage Russia to curtail support for Iran and Syria (Trump wish list) in exchange for lifting U.S. sanctions on Russia.
We’ll see.
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“Protecting guns and profits have become more important than protecting the lives of young people” Henry A. Giroux, Truthout ,  March 4.
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Why are so many Americans beholden to guns ? It could be their sense of security was rocked by 9/11 plus the Great Recession/Bear Market.  Then it could be racial, a fear that people of different colors will eventually outnumber them, prompting  the need (in their paranoid minds) to stage a forceful change in governance (revolution).  This makes little sense, but from their point of  simplemindedness, they feel more secure with a dozen guns and cases of ammunition in house just in case.
     What these whackos don’t understand is they can’t use their guns outside of their homes for fear of injuring or killing an innocent person which not only sends them to jail, but opens them up to a lawsuit where they lose their stock portfolio, car, house and all those “blankies” that  go bang.  ………………………………………

 A quasi-fascist state would give Trump the untethered power he craves.
Read: The Ghost of Fascism in the Age of Trump
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/43529-the-ghost-of-fascism-in-the-age-of-trump
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U.S. Ranking globally and domestically is plunging under Trump
      Global approval of U.S. leadership from 134 countries has plunged to 30% from 48% in just a year.  Clearly, Trump isn’t making America Great Again in the eyes of all other countries.  The downside of this is we need the support of those countries.  Our nationalistic policies are opening doors throughout the world for China. A Gallup poll shows Germany replacing the U.S. as the top-rated power in the world.
      Under Trump, the United States has dropped to 11th place in the Bloomberg Innovation Index, which in addition  to  R&D spending, includes post secondary, or tertiary, education-efficiency category, which includes the share of new science and engineering graduates. Value-added manufacturing also dropped.  South Korea ranked first, followed by Sweden, Singapore, Germany, Switzerland, Japan, Finland, Denmark, France, Israel.
       Also under Trump, Americans’ trust in institutions (government, companies and the  media) has suffered the greatest loss on record according to a poll conducted by Edelman New York. The poll, including 33,000 “informed” individuals showed the U.S. dropping to 43 out of a possible 100, down 23 points in a year.  He is a human wrecking ball.
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CORPORATE TAX CUT IRRESPONSIBLE
“It's pure fantasy to think that the tax bill will lead to significantly higher wages and growth, as Republicans have promised,” Bloomberg continued. Had Congress actually listened to executives, or economists who study these issues carefully, it might have realized that. The tax bill is an economically indefensible blunder that will harm our future” –   Michael Bloomberg – billionaire business man former mayor NYC

      I don’t doubt some corporations need, and deserve a tax cut, but to reduce the rate from 35% to 21% is inexcusable, reckless, unjustifiable, and outright subversive to the best interests of America.
      Corporate income taxes comprise 9% of federal government receipts. If corporate taxes are slashed by 40% (from 35% to 21%), the government’s receipts from corporations are reduced by 3.6% from 9%.
      Individual income tax payments comprise 47% of  federal government receipts. At this point, I have no idea how much of an impact  Congress’ tax cuts will have on this source of federal revenues, but it stands to be significant.
      The Republican administration expects economic growth will be triggered by a sudden change in heart by corporations to abandon stock buybacks and the repatriation of billions stashed abroad to plug the big hole left in federal receipts by tax cuts with a surge in hiring and capital expenditures.
      That assumption is flawed. For one, why would a corporation  go on a hiring and cap-ex spending spree  with an economic expansion that  is 8-1/2 years old, 3 years longer (73%) than the average over 65 years (1945 – 2009).
      For another, are they naïve enough to assume there will be no recessions within the next 10 years ?
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Mercer on the run ?  Bannon and Breitbart bankroller, Robert Mercer is rapidly severing financial ties to Breitbart News and support of Steve Bannon and alt-right’s Milo Yiannopoulos. Mercer was a major supporter of Sen. Ted Cruz’s effort to gain the Republican nomination last year, but switched his allegiance to Trump when he won the nomination.
      In my March 21 post, I wrote, “Years from now, I suspect Mercer will be relaxing at his Long Island waterfront retreat, Owl’s Nest, or on his 200-foot yacht, Sea Owl, and look back over his illustrious career tarnished  by one regret – he backed the biggest con job in our nation’s history.”
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Red states In need of Fed government help the most
Six states (Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Utah, Wisconsin),  are planning to require poverty stricken people on Medicaid  to get jobs  or lose the coverage. Maine, Utah and Wisconsin want to put a time limit on coverage, the latter wants to drug-test people. Excluded: People with long-tern disabilities, the elderly, and children.  Isn’t it bad enough these people are in poverty ? 
      Vox Media reports that 9.8 million Medicaid recipients  don’t have jobs  due to: Illness/disabled (35%), retired (8%), taking care of home or family (28%), going to school (18%), cannot find work (8%). The remaining 60.2 million Americans on Medicaid work full-time of part-time.  I’m not sure what’s the Republican beef here.
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TRUMP’S PARDON POWER
     The President has the power to grant conditional pardons; to commute sentences; remit fines and forfeitures; and grant amnesty. This power can be exercised at any time after the offense has been committed, before conviction of after. Pardons cannot be limited by or controlled by legislative action (US legal.com)
Expect Trump to attempt to pardon anyone he wants, including himself. It’s a way out of facing responsibility very much like dodging the draft. Like when he justified his numerous bankruptcies, saying he only used U.S. laws to his advantage.  Well, “pardons” are his prerogative, in many, not all cases. He would take advantage of whatever loophole to avoid consequences, sort of like dodging the draft, or did I already say that ?
     The President cannot pardon people for “state” crimes, and it is doubtful he can pardon himself.
      Can the Mueller investigation survive Mueller’s firing ?
Slate.com’s July 21 article, “Trump can’t Escape the States,” says “YES.”
1-A state [NY] could hire Mueller and team.
2-State attorneys general could use their quo warranto power to investigate Trump’s organization for fraud and money laundering from Russian sources.
3-A Congressional committee (Senate Intelligence Committee) could hire Mueller or create a Joint select Committee.
4-Congress could pass a new veto-proof independent counsel statute.
FINALLY: If Trump resigns and Pence takes over, Pence could pardon Trump, as Ford did Nixon.
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THE GREAT AMERICAN EXPERIMENT UNDER SEIGE:  Not since the Civil War has the spirit and future of our nation been at such great risk, from within.  This  administration, Congress and U.S. Supreme Court is surgically dismembering  efforts over many years to ensure the safety  and well being of “all” Americans.
     The sooner, Americans recognize these are not genuine Republican conservatives, but extremists determined dismantle that which has been achieved over the years and replace it with “their” brand  of a  quasi-fascist state.  Ben Franklin was right when asked what kind of government  the Founding Fathers had given us.  “A Republic, if you can keep it,” was his response.
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TRUMP looking for a “Get Out Of Jail Free Card if the Feds close in?”
    Why not, he dodged military service with 5 deferments  during the Vietnam era (1964 – 1970).
     Reportedly, he has asked advisers about his power to pardon family members and himself  relating to Mueller’s investigation.
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WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE INVESTIGATION IS COMPLETED ? If the Special Counselor  concludes it is “necessary and appropriate” he is authorized to prosecute federal crimes arising out of the investigation, which he does after submitting a report to the attorney general explaining his reasons.

REASONS NEEDED TO FIRE MUELLER:  Misconduct,  dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, good cause (??), violation of Department policies.
WOULD MUELLER BE REPLACED ? Unclear. If the Democrats controlled Congress they could appoint another Special Counselor
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  “Connect the Dots.” This investigation is open-ended. These are people were part of the Trump team, or in a position to know information relating to activities before or after the 2016 election, though  not necessarily in any way guilty of any wrongdoing.
       Nigel Farage – President Trump- Hope Hicks, Jeffrey Sessions – Robert Mercer – Cambridge Analytics – Bannon- Carter Page – Kushner (Jared and Ivanka) – Eric Prince – Donald, Jr.  and Eric Trump – Wilbur Ross –  Michael Cohen – Ezra Cohen Watnick – Michael T. Flynn – Michael G. Flynn ( son)  – JD Gordon  –  Christopher Steele – Michael Caputo -Breitbart News – Roger Stone – Julian Assange – Paul Manafort – Rick Gates – Jill Stein – Sam Clovis –  Kellyanne and George Conway –Dana Rohrabacher – Bill Browder – Peter W. Smith (deceased: suicide), Paul Behrends – Brad Parscale – Sam Nunberg – Dan Scavino – Keith Schiller –  Alex Van Der waan – Ted Malloch -Boris Epshteyn, Ike Kaveladze, and  Russia’s alfa Group – Felix Sater – Rob Goldstone – alfa Group – Emin Agalarov – Sergey Gorkov –  Sergey Kislyak, ambassador to the U.S., Natalia Veselnitskaya, Oleg Deripaska all connect directly or indirectly to the Trump/Russia investigation and some have a connection to Brexit, as well.
      According to the “Observer,” Mercer’s Cambridge Analytica was connected with Canada’s AggregateIQ through an intellectual property agreement and worked together on the Brexit referendum. Aggregate is also a data mining company. While Mercer was a big supporter of Trump, there is no known connection between AggregateIQ and Trump’s campaign staff.
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 REMOVING TRUMP FROM  OFFICE
Can Section 4 of the 25th Amendment, U.S. Constitution – Remove Trump ?
      It’s a stretch.  The key for his removal is ”that he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.”  Section 4 mentions nothing  that he is unfit, delusional, unbalanced, crazy,  impulsive, irrational, impaired, sociopathic, psychopathic, narcissistic.
      That would be the threshold that would have to be crossed if Trump is removed from office via Section 4 of the 25th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. There is no precedent

      It isn’t just Democrats, liberals, moderates and reasonable people who find Trump caustic, and dangerous, conservatives like George Will, David Brooks and Ross Douthart are also urging his removal.
      First, there are four ways to get rid of Trump – death, resignation, impeachment and Section 4 of the 25th Amendment.
      The procedure employing the 25th Amendment requires the Vice President and the majority of the cabinet of 15 (8) to vote to remove the president. They would submit their declaration in writing to the President pro tempore ( Sen. Orrin Hatch) and Speaker of the House (Paul Ryan) that the president is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, and the Vice President will immediately assume to office as acting president.
      However, the president may contend the move by submitting his own letter to the President pro tempore and Speaker of the House, that he believes he is capable of performing his duties, in which case he will resume the office of presidency.
       The Vice President and Cabinet members may then resubmit their declaration at which point Congress would vote within 48 hours if in session. If not, Congress  will act within 21 days where a two-thirds vote would be required to remove  him.  
        However, as “Business Insider.com” noted on Jan. 9, 2018, Trump could simply fire the Cabinet members who voted to oust him from office.
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IMPEACHMENT
      A  Consult/Politico poll shows 43% of Americans want Congress to begin procedures for the impeachment of President Trump.
      The U.S. Constitution  enables Congress to remove a president for “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.” Initially, the House votes on one or more articles of impeachment- if a majority vote is reached, he is impeached.  BUT, impeachment only means indictment. The Senate holds a trial overseen by the chief justice and Supreme Court. A group of House members serve as prosecutors and the Senate as jurors. If two-thirds of the senators find the president guilty, he is removed from office and the vice president takes over.
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Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com
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George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fed’s Powell Jumps in Trump’s SWAMP

INVESTORS first read.com Daily edge before the open           
DJIA: 25,366
S&P 500:2,743
Nasdaq Com.:7,291
Russell 2000: 1,530
Thursday, November 29,  2018  9:09 a.m.
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gbifr79@gmail.com

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WARNING ! When the market gets hammered, expect the Trump administration and Wall Streeters to crank out anything that resembles good news that could stop the carnage.  Ignore them. This is often the trigger for bear market rallies that suck investors in before the next move down.
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Market Status: 
         Indeed the market surged out of its double bottom pattern formed over the last three weeks.
          It confirms my blog headlines that, “ Only The Fed Can Slow the Bear” and yesterday’s head that the “Street Desperately Hoping For Ease at Fed Or On Tariffs.”     
      “Don’t Fight The Fed” is one of the bromides a person learns early on in this business.      
        Fed Chief Powell’s moon walk yesterday was disappointing, though not surprising.  The Fed has always loved the POWER, especially at market turns.  They wielded for the good in the 2007-2009 meltdown, then  irresponsibly in Obama’s second administration by overstaying QE and its zero-based interest rate policy, giving the Street a green light for its algo-driven, cruise control buy bias that drove stocks to lofty levels for Donald Trump’s Presidency.
         Yesterday, Powell said “There is no preset policy path,” adding the Fed will assess the most recent economic and financial data in deciding whether  or how fast to keep raising rates. 
         Nonsense !  Based on the huge cycle swings in the Fed’s benchmark fed funds rate, there is an incontrovertible pattern of ‘preset policy.”
      Here’s the ego part, the moving the market part, Powell said, “We do not see dangerous excesses in the stock market…that no major asset class is significantly inflated.”  Don’t be surprised if Powell trots his minions back him up.
      I knew this was coming, especially after Trump’s criticism – no brainer.
The Fed has clout, they must use it wisely – CREDIBILITY is key.
This behavior has 000000000000000000000000000 credibility
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 Economic Status: Late stage expansion with recession starting in late 2019. Bull markets hit peak 6 to 12 months ahead of recessions. Republicans were in White House in 9 of  the last 10 recessions. Their rosy projections ignore the likelihood of a recession within a year to 18 months. Housing and auto industries already in recession. The crunch can gain momentum ahead of schedule. U.S. fiscal crisis looms 2-3 years out.
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TECHNICAL OBSERVATIONS FOR “TRADERS” FAVORITES    

All the growth stocks listed below, except possibly Apple have registered turning patterns and can be expected to move higher over the near-to-intermediate term.  The following support levels must hold or the downtrend  that has persisted in recent months will be renewed.
      This whole exercise was to find a price level that would stop the carnage of the growth stocks.  If these support levels are broken, I will pick up on these stocks again.

FB: 126; AMZN: 1,470; NFLX: 250; GOOG:1,005; AAPL: 170.
Coverage will not continue unless these stocks become high risks again.
Apple is the one at greatest risk with 158 a possibility

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THE MARKET TODAY
       After Fed Chair Powell’s cave-in to Trump on interest rate policy yesterday, we are left with  a high risk decision. 
        Do we buy expecting  the Fed to follow up with more hype of the market  running to  new highs  and risk of this being one of the great “Bear Traps” of all times where investors rush in to pay up for rising prices only to be cloths-lined by another leg down as a bear market unfolds ahead of a recession and fiscal crisis, or do we cool it waiting for cooler heads to prevail ?

  Expect the market to respond to rumors or expectations coming out of the G20 meeting.  The most important would be about TARIFFS.  Both the U.S. and China are feeling the pinch, but other than “words” what real action will occur.
         I expect Trump and Xi to agree to agree at some point in the future
      There is no reason for Trump to be in a hurry to yield – no election nearterm.  I can see the market rising in anticipation of progress, only to be disappointed by the end result.  This is a global stage for both Trump and Xi, neither will yield a lot.
       Trump’s  trade  war is adversely impacting the corporate decision process, investment in plant, and equipment, supply chains and the bottom line. This is on top of rising interest rates and slowing global demand.
       CNBC has reported a study by ImpactECON that Trump’s tariffs could cost American households  $2,400 in 2019 the form of higher prices, lower wages and lower investment returns. 
       A  constitutional crisis looms. I have no idea. I doubt their algos include such a possibility.  Yes, if the Street starts thinking for themselves.
        EXPECT FIREWORKS any day from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. While the Street couldn’t give a hoot for most big news relating  to Mueller, it hasn’t been hit with really bad game-changing bad news,     
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      TECHNICAL OBSERVATION:
     
The market will start the day on a positive note with  a sharp advance at the open, at least as I write at 8:40,
      Christmas came early for the Street with Fed Chief Powell’s flummoxing on  on interest rate policy with the predictable  result, a timely jump in stock prices. 
     
The Fed must be careful here. It can’t be intimidated by the White House.  If  the U.S. runs into an ugly recession, the Fed has few arrows in its quiver to respond. Interest rates are still low, it is trimming its balance sheet and our irresponsible Congress already gave corporate America an undeserved huge tax cut.  There is no life preserver big enough.
       Then too, the Street hopes for a breakthrough in Trump’s disastrous tariff tiff with China, it’s past the ouch point here and abroad.
        Words suck – what is needed is action and follow through, so a big run up here can only hold with tangible results. I was never impressed with G20 meets – a lot of egos huffing and puffing in an effort to look important on a global stage.

        But, it is what it is – a stage …….hold the bouquets     
        That said, this rally can run higher than I expected for one day. I would now say resistance will start at (DJIA: 25,575, S&P 500: 2,775, Nasdaq Comp.:7,2717,495.
         It all depends on how powellful the Fed is.  If this is a big green light to return to a cruise-control buy mode, we will go to new highs.
         If the Street sees his statements as purely a temporary cave to Trump’s criticisms and the Fed will keep raising rates, IT’S a BEAR TRAP.

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Technical Note: Frequently, there is what I refer to as a mid-afternoon counter move (2:30 – 3:00 where the market rallies or declines against the prevailing trend for the day.   This can be a fake out for investors thinking the market has turned (up or down).
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        A. Gary Shilling  just turned bearish in his November issue, headlining his issue of “INSUGHT“ with “Looming Recession ?”   I have tracked Shilling for decades. He nailed the 2007 – 2009 Great Recession Bear Market before anyone else. For him to suddenly turn negative is  a shocker.  He details his reasons in a 50-page analysis that  is overwhelming in detail and backed up with stats and graphs. No one in my experience has more economic/investing integrity than Shilling. 
 
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IMPORTANT NOTES:
>
Through September, this bull market is 116 months old, or 3.5 times longer than the average of the last  15  bull markets..
>Bear markets start 6 – 12 months ahead of the onset of a recession.  
>Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House
>The current economic expansion has lasted 123 months. That’s 65 months (2.1x) longer than the average expansion (58.4 months) going back to 1945.
>Of the 10 recessions since 1950,the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was 3.8 Months.
> Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months. 
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Bear Market Perspective

      Officially, we are not in a bear market until the S&P 500 declines 20% (2,352).  That would translate into DJIA 21,560 – “ouch” !
       That’s the minimum drop for a bear, but the last two bears crushed the S&P 500 by 57% (2007-2009) and 50% (2000-2002).  
My bear market target would be declines of
      DJIA: 18,500 (-31.4%)
      S&P 500 :  2,150 (-27.0%)
      Nasdaq Comp.:5,200 (-36.1%)
      But, depending on what new negatives hit the market when it gets down there, the bear market could reach much, much  lower levels.
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EARNINGS GROWTH MYTH:
       The Street is counting on earnings growth to reduce the overvaluation of equities.   Look again.

       A 20% increase in S&P 500 earnings this year will  be tough to beat next year.  The quarter versus year ago quarters in 2019 will make poor reading going up against the 2018 earnings, possibly earnings growth around  5%. But the Street is not factoring in the likelihood of a recession, which could mean negative growth.
       At times, politics has little impact on the big  picture. This time is different.

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BULLISH CASE
      A sharp increase in corporate earnings is what the bulls are relying on to power the market higher.
      Q2 earnings increased 25.0% over a year ago.
      Thomson Reuters projects Q3’s increase in earnings to  hit 20.5% and Q4 18.0%.
      However 2019 is a different story with earnings increases of Q1: +7.0%, Q2: +5.1%, Q3: +5.9% and Q4: +3.9%, that averages out to +5.4%.
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BEARISH CASE
RISING INTEREST RATES:
      >The Fed is persistently raising its benchmark interest rate (federal funds), as well as reducing its inflated balance sheet,  which will drive other rates higher, which will adversely impact interest sensitive industries.  . 
      >The 10-year treasury has been rising steadily and now stands at 3.09%.
      > The yield curve is flattening as short-term treasuries rise faster than long-tern governments just another warning sign of impending recession.
 OVERVALUED MARKET
      > The onset of bear markets have led the beginning of recessions by 8.5 months going back to 1956, so don’t look for a recession to signal a bear market. The longest lead time was 13 months (1968 – 1969) The “mode” (most frequent) is 12 months.
       > If companies are buying back their own stock at a record clip, pushing stocks higher, why then are insiders selling $8 of stock for every $1 of stock they buy ?
       .> Companies took advantage of low interest rates to load up on debt in recent years for acquisitions and to buy back their own stock. Excluding banks, the tally is $6.3trillion. The downside of this comes when these companies will need to refinance this debt at higher interest rates when it comes due.
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       > The S&P 500 price to sales ratio at 2.30 is 40% higher than in 2007 before the devastating bear market, and is even higher than in March 2000 before the dot-com bubble burst leading to a bear market. Both bear markets dropped 50%.
       > The Shiller P/E is 31.5  times earnings versus a mean of 16.6.  Shiller’s P/E is based on  inflation adjusted earnings over 10 years.
       > The Total Market Capitalization to GDP  stands at 147.3%, anything above 115% is  considered “overvalued.”
        > Thompson Reuters reports the S&P 500 sells at 18.1 times earnings and 16.2 times a year from now. All this versus a 10-year average of 14.3.
AGING BULL MARKET:
       > The bull market is now  nine years and six months old (115 months).  That’s 3.5 times the average of the last 15 bull markets.
AGING ECONOMIC EXPANSION:
      > Republicans – the recession party. Nine of last 10 recession have been with a Republican in the White House.  Odds favor Trump will make 10 for 11.
      > The current economic expansion has lasted 112 months. That’s 53 months (1.9 x) longer than the average expansion going back to 1945.  Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House.
      > Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months. 
      > Housing stocks have been in a prolonged slump since January. The iShares  home construction ETF has dropped 20.5%, as interest rates rise. Not only is it  major employer, its health affects other industries, especially furniture and appliances..
      > Household debt increased for the 16th straight quarter to 13.3 trillion, that’s 19%  above the post-financial-crisis low.
      > Jamie Dimon, CEO J.P. Morgan Chase,  thinks the benchmark  10-yearTreasury note , now 2.95%, should be 5%. The rate impacts lending for autos, mortgages and businesses.
      > Personal loans have soared   18% to  a record 120 billion, Personal savings as percent of disposable income at 3%, down from 9% in 2012.
      > Low interest rates have encouraged US companies to go on a debt binge, amassing  $6.3 trillion. With rates on the increase, refinancing will get more costly, according to S&P analyst, Andrew Chang, who points out that this amounts to $8 for every $1 in cash.
      > Recently, 1,100 economists WARN Trump is repeating biggest mistakes of Great Depression – tariffs, trade protectionism, according to conservative National Taxpayers’ Union.
      > Former Fed Chair, Ben Bernanke, says economy to fall off a cliff in 2020, thanks to the $1.5 trillion corporate and individual tax cut and $300 billion increase in spending.              
TRUMP’S TRADE WAR TANTRUM
      > Trump’s tariff tiff costing  US companies a bundle:  The damage extends to manufacturers, input suppliers, fishermen, and numerous businesses who are finding it more difficult to sell abroad.
      > Today’s businesses are complex, especially supply chains that can involve a thousand parts that make up a whole product, many of which are sourced from different countries, sometimes crossing back and forth across the same border a number of times.
      >  Trump is considering leaving World Trade Organization (WTO).
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IMPLODING:
      So far, the stock market has not wavered in face of the increasing likelihood, Trump and many present and former associates are in legal trouble.
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POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET

SUPREME STUPIDITY !
Trump vs. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts.  Rough guess here, but I would say Roberts thumps Trump every time they get in the ring.
Trump bashed  a decision by the Ninth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for ruling that the administration must consider claims of asylum regardless of where migrants cross the border, which rejected Trump’s wishes. He accused the court of bias blaming an  “Obama judge” for the ruling.  Roberts retaliated claiming the Court doesn’t have Obama, Bush, Clinton, or Trump judges.  …that an independent judiciary is something we should be thankful for.
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COWARDS ? Now is the time for the Republican-controlled Senate to do the American thing and protect the Special Counsel from  President Trump’s effort to undermine it.  This is no longer politics in general, this is about whether or not we are a nation of laws. Failure to do that, and I am convinced certain members of Congress are constitutional anarchists determined to destroy our republic.
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Rogue wave…. or monstrous blue wave ?
Real Americans are rising up to save our republic, and all the quality of life things worked and died for over the years.   After 2020, the right wing Republicans will be irrelevant, forced to climb back under the rock from which they emerged.
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What in the  Hell is wrong with us ?  These Central American peoples of all ages are willing to trek thousands of miles to attempt to enter America, and we are sending troops to back up border control to deny them legal entrance.  SHAME on our President, the selfish Republican party.  By their admirable efforts, they are demonstrating the kind of resolve we want in our workforce.
Christian ?   No, freaking way.  Our leaders are the epitome of  the  anti-Christ !  Hypocrites and un-American at heart ! 
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Trump has proposed a  5 percent budget cut for each Cabinet agency yesterday.
     Wait just a minute !
Didn’t Congress pass a $1.3trillion catchall spending bill earlier in the year after passing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in December, which gave corporations a 40% tax cut, and was skewed heavily in favor of big earners with the rest of the country getting a cut around 1%.
      According to the Treasury Dept. the federal deficit for FY Sept. 30 was $779 billion, up 17% from a year ago primarily due to the shortfall in revenues from corporations as a result of their huge tax cuts.
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Bath Iron Works (Maine) Gets $3.9 billion Navy Award 7 days before Sen. Collin’s “Yes” Vote for Kavanaugh
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      Reecntly, Bill Palmer, PalmerReports.com, gave his reason why Nikki Haley resigned from her post as United Nations Ambassador.

       The story was carried in more detail by the Business Insider.com, which points to her resignation one day after Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) requested the State Dept. investigate her acceptance of seven free flights aboard private jets  from three South Carolina business men.
      While she listed the flights on her 2017 financial disclosure, the information was incomplete according to CREW and did not qualify for an exemption.
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       Breaking: Concern that right wingers are set to rewrite the United States Constitution via an Article V Convention, or Amendments Convention, called by two-thirds of the state legislatures (34).  A three-quarter vote is required for an amendment to become part of the Constitution.   Reportedly, right wingers want to convert our system of government to a confederation of “supreme” states, essentially minimizing the present amount of federal control.
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Trump in hot water on tax evasion and the legitimacy of his inheritance ?
We’ll see !!
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     Since Deputy Atty Gen’l Rod Rosenstein would not fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller, assuming Trump first fired Rosenstein.
     On November 8, 2017, I noted Brian Benczkowski was nominated by President Trump in June [2017] to be U.S. Assistant Attorney General for the Criminal Division. Along party lines, he was confirmed by the Senate recently, raising the question would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein was fired and he  was appointed in his place. He said he would not recuse himself from  questions in the Mueller investigation.
     The big question mark here is that Benczkowski had represented Russia’s Alfa Bank at some point in the past and had no prosecutorial experience.  He had worked for Atty Gen’l Jeff Sessions and the Bush administration and was not opposed by Rosenstein.
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     Palmerreport.com believes Roger Stone will be the next person indicted/arrested by Special Counsel Robert Mueller.
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  As if Trump did not have enough problems, here comes Allen Weisselberg, long-time CFO of the Trump Organization and now a recipient of “immunity” from  the Attorney General of New York.
       This is especially significant, notes PalmerReports.com, since he is testifying about state level charges in addition to federal charges, which cannot be nullified by a Trump pardon.
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      NO ATTORNEY CLIENT PRIVILEGE: Palmerreport.com reminds readers that Trump has NO attorney-Client privilege with Ty Cobb who he hired on July 14, 2017 to help with the Russia scandal. To save personal funds, Trump put Cobb on the White House payroll, so Cobb is free to disclose any information Special Counsel Mueller wants him to.
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  I expect Attorney General Sessions to be fired or to resign any day now.  That puts Deputy Atty. Gen. Rod Rosenstein in jeopardy.  Will Brian Benszkowski be moved in the fill the void. Would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein were fired ?
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HEADS UP !   A majority vote in both the House and Senate can change the number of Justices on the Supreme Court. The number is fixed by statute, not by the Constitution. It has ranged between 6 and 10 since 1789.
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DAMN  IT !   I miss decency.
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“President” Trump has made 4,229 false (lies) and misleading claims since his inauguration. (Washington Post). …………………………………………………………………   
WOULD ANYONE WANT their spouse to lie repeatedly ?, their child ?, mother ?, father ?, minister ?, child’s teacher ?,  coach ?, employer ?.  IF NOT, why would they support President Trump who is on record with telling 4.5 lies per day,  4,200 lies since his inauguration on January 20 ?. 
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Trump boasts about the stock market in his first 31 months as President, but the S&P 500 appreciated 149% during President Obama’s first 31 months in office, 2 ½ times as it advanced under Trump, and Obama inherited the worst stock market/economic collapse since the 1930s, Trump inherited a strong stock market and economic recovery.
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The U.S. Chamber of Commerce currently estimates the impact of Trump tariffs on the following states stand to be: Louisiana ($5.2 bil.), Washington ($5.7 bil.), Texas ($1.4 bil.), S. Carolina ($2.6 bil.), Illinois ($2.1 bil.), California ($4.0 bil.), Kentucky ($917 mil.), Michigan (842 mil.), Ohio ($826 mil.).
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Orwellian: George Orwell’s 1984 wretched society was controlled by denial of the truth,  the dissemination of  misinformation, propaganda, and surveillance, i.e., Big Brother is watching.    “Just remember what you are seeing  and what you are reading is not what’s happening.” Trump  told the VFW July 24
“The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears…” George Orwell’s  dystopian novel – “1984”  published in 1949.
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A recent Gallup poll shows  how  people polled  would vote if the election were held today
Democrats      30%
Republicans   26%
Independents 40%

The key here is twofold. The Democrats must get their vote out, which may be difficult in face of Republican voter suppression. Then too, they need to get a lot  of the Independent vote, which will be helped as Americans see the Trump administration gut treasured institutions, regulations designed to ensure a better environment in the future, healthcare, and undermine time-tested, valued global alliances while cultivating the favor of enemies.
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Special Counsel Robert Mueller  must comply with regulations, rules, procedures, and policies of the Department of Justice as set forth in 28 CFR 600. He can only be removed for misconduct, dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, or other good cause, including violation of the Department’s policy.
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What Trump and his base have in common: They both deplore the same people – people of color, the handicapped, liberals, foreigners.
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VOTES FLIPPED for TRUMP  in Key States in 2016
      Daily Kos’ Aldous Pennyfarthing (Pen name for Tom Breuer)  gave reasons in Alternet.org, July 27, why he thinks the Russians [or someone] flipped votes for Trump in 2016.
      The basis for this conclusion was comparing exit polls with actual outcome in North Carolina Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
 Pennsylvania: Exit polls Clinton 50.5 – Trump 46.1.  Result: Clinton 46.1 –   Trump 48.8.
Wisconsin: Exit poll Clinton 48.2 – Trump 44.3  Result: Clinton 47.6 – Trump 48.8.
North Carolina: Exit poll Clinton  48.6 – Trump 46.5. Result: Clinton 46.1 – Trump 49.9.
      An FOI suit by Bradley Moss (cybersecurity lawyer) brought against the government  revealed Russians hacked inside voting systems in seven big states.
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Wake up out there. These aren’t conservative Republicans, they are anarchists, extremists  who have wrested control of the Republican party over the last 20 years and are intent on a party rule with no checks and balances.  This is  a bloodless coup.
If  they can lock up control of both Houses, the Presidency, Supreme Court and strategic lower court appointments, and a major news media broadcaster, survival of our republic will depend on whose side the military and police forces take.
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 Sinclair Broadcast Group  (BEWARE !)   
      Sinclair Broadcast Group is using its clout as owner of  193 television stations in 80 markets as a lever to manipulate local station viewers’ minds pitching it’s right wing propaganda. Viewers tend to trust local stations programing over national networks.  A July 16, 2018 FCC decision denied Sinclair’s acquisition of the Tribune Broadcast Group, which would have expanded its reach into New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago markets
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 Sinclair Bank (no relation to the broadcast  group) has surfaced as a lender to Michael Cohen, Jared Kushner, his father and Trump.  Ivanka Trump no longer on board. 
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        Treason is defined by Article 3, section 3: Treason, as levying war against the U.S., or in adhering to its enemy, namely aid and comfort, also defined as any act that deliberately strengthens or tends to strengthen enemies of the U.S. or that weakens the power of the U.S. to resist and attack such enemies.
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TRUMP’S BASE:  Some voted for Trump because they always vote Republican. Then there are those whose opinions are based on emotional disorders, those who will never accept the truth no matter what (Confirmation Bias); those who accept bad behavior as the norm (Deviancy Down); and those who while stupid, ill informed who actually believe they are highly intelligent, competent (Dunning Krueger). These people don’t have enough knowledge to know they don’t have enough knowledge, i.e.,too dumb to know they are dumb.(alternet.com 7/23/18)
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July 19, 2018: Republicans refuse to renew election security funding over Russian hacking – Democrats livid, as all of us should be. 
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The Dept. of Justice charged a Russian national, Mariia Butina, of illegally trying to influence American politics using the NRA, religious organizations  as a means of gaining backchannel access to the highest levels of the Republican Party.  Mother Jones says  Butina acted as a covert Russian agent, an unregistered foreign agent.
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      Since Deputy Atty Gen’l Rod Rosenstein would not fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller,   assuming Trump first fired Rosenstein.
     On November 8, I noted Brian Benczkowski was nominated by President Trump in June [2017] to be U.S. Assistant Attorney General for the Criminal Division. Along party lines, he was confirmed by the Senate recently, raising the question would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein was fired and he  was appointed in his place. He said he would not recuse himself from  questions in the Mueller investigation.
     The big question mark here is that Benczkowski had represented Russia’s Alfa Bank at some point in the past and had no prosecutorial experience.  He had worked for Atty Gen’l Jeff Sessions and the Bush administration and was not opposed by Rosenstein.

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A “MALEVOLENT FOOL” – Lt. Col. , Ret’d, Ralph Peters, ex-Fox analyst referring to Trump.   Malevolent: evil, harmful, injurious.
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Un-American ! Trump claims writers of U.S. Constitution treated Him unfairly, adding we have the worst constitution writers in the world…Russia has better constitution writers than we do, says Trump . “I talked with Putin, and he said their constitution never gives him problems.” Andy Borowitz, (The Borowitz Report).
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      WE DON”T WANT TO GO THERE !  The Trump administration is taking the United States straight to a place none of us wants to be – civil unrest,  an extended recession, a fiscal crisis where we can’t pay our bills, ergo the need to slash healthcare, safety net programs, a host of programs that have improved our quality of life.
      This administration’s actions on trade (tariffs, TPP), the intentional divisiveness of America along racial lines, and abandonment of our long-time allies have opened the door for China to dominate the world, economically and militarily.  That’s Un-American.  This has to be stopped.
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Republican strategist, Steve Schmidt, leaves Republican Party after 29 years, saying the party is “corrupt, indecent and immoral,” and with a few exceptions  elected  Republicans are “feckless cowards who disgrace and dishonor the legacies of the party’s greatest leaders.” Others quitting Republican Party: George Will, “Morning” Joe Scarborough. To date, 35 senior Trump advisers have left.
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President Donald Trump is NOT pro-business, he’s pro-Trump
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TRUMP EXIT STRATEGY: The most important thing for King Donald is his image.  Currently he is scrambling to initiate as many perceived accomplishments as possible (taxes, anti-immigrant, anti-allies, deregulation, North Korea, Iran, ISIS, unemployment).
      This way, if he is impeached, defeated in 2020, or forced to resign, he can claim to have been the greatest president of all-time – he’ll tweet it relentlessly, deviancy-downed Americans will believe it and every network in the country, whores that they are, (including MSNBC and CNN) will scramble to cover his tweets.  IMHO: he won’t risk losing in 2020, just not run – declare he has accomplished his mission and walk away.
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POSSIBLE ! That the blue wave won’t happen in November.  Why? The American voter is still zoned out about what is happening – too busy with other stuff, not capable of  objectively analyzing issues accurately without bias.
     The result: The extremist Republicans and their president will run the economy, a constructive foreign relations policy, and America’s quality of life into the ground.  In order to get the American voter’s attention, we have to hit bottom first.
      That means an extended recession, a fiscal crisis (unable to pay bills), a 65% drop in the stock market and,  national unrest greater than that which the Vietnam War attracted.
       We are witnessing the unfolding of  the biggest scandal in our country’s history, including illegal financial transactions, vote tampering and  untethered collusion and obstruction of  justice at the highest level.  This may take years to unravel.
      Again, I say “possible,” not probable..  Probable would be all that but not as severe.
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Corporations got a 40% tax cut, John and Jane Q get a 1.2% – 1.8% cut, even so, Trump plans to introduce a “rescission package” to cut $15 billion in already approved spending on the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation program, as well as 30 other programs. The  U.S. House will likely approve his  rescission  package, the Senate may not.
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According to Bloomberg.com, 1,100 economists warn that Trump is repeating one of the biggest mistakes of the Great Depression – tariffs and trade protectionism. The warning came in a letter from the conservative-leaning National Taxpayers Union.
      China loves it !  Trump opened the door, China entered, capitalizing on Trump’s regressive “America First” mantra, with its far reaching Belt and Road outreach with investments encompassing infrastructure, education, construction materials, rail and hi-way, auto, real estate, power grid and iron and steel investments to 68 countries, 65% of the world’s population and 40% of global GDP.
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      Kim took Trump’s war with North Korea option off the table, so looks like Trump now has his sights set on IRAN – to please his base, of course, in time for the mid-terms, of course
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North Korea give up nuclear weapons ?  Never !  Kim wants a global stage, so does Trump, who will not risk being embarrassed by the little tyrant. Trump will bail.  He needs a villain to trash to please his base. Kim has what he wants.  I think Trump has been played like a harp. 
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Impeachment of Trump unlikely with this Republican House. Trump has surrounded himself with newly appointed Cabinet members, so Section 4 of the 25th amendment is not a reality.   What’s left ?  A deal with Mueller for his RESIGNATION ?
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Must Read: “Will Christian Nationalism Drive Trump’s Base to the Polls in November ?”  Truthout April 15, Bill Berkowitz. This explains why his base of Christians votes for an immoral person, one whose behavior is the antithesis of the teachings of Christ.
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Will Trump  Fire Mueller

      Trump can’t fire Mueller directly, it must be done by the Department of Justice.  Trump would have to find someone to do it.  Nixon did it in 1973 when he had to work through two attorney generals until  his solicitor general, Robert Bork fired Special Prosecutor Archibald Cox. 
      Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein isn’t going to do it, so Trump must find someone from DOJ , or someone outside who has already been confirmed by the Senate who will do it.         Philip Bump, Washington Post (WAPO) April 10, did a great job outlining possibilities in, “Why Trump can’t fire Mueller – at least not directly.”  I can only touch on a few of his points here.
       In his article, Georgetown University’s professor Paul Butler raises the interesting point that  firing Mueller may not be necessary if  Rosenstein is replaced by someone hostile to the Special Counsel’s investigation.  He would simply force a stall with lots of demands, even leak information to the White House.   
       REASONS NEEDED TO FIRE MUELLER: Trump would have to have  good reason to fire Mueller.  Grounds must be, misconduct, dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, or other good cause, including violation of policies of the Department of Justice, and failure to follow Justice Departments guidelines and violation of applicable canons of ethics.
       CAN TRUMP RESCIND  SPECIAL COUNSEL REGULATION ?  Yes, it’s possible but many legal hurdles  would make it difficult and possibly so time consuming as to make the action worthless. There is no clear cut answer. This would be decided in court, the legal ramifications just very complex.
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FISCAL CRISIS LOOMS IN FUTURE:  Headlines:“Federal debt primed to explode”….”U.S. Deficit to Surpass $1 Trillion Two Years Ahead of Estimates”….”This Year’s budget deficit to hit $804 B after tax cuts and spending hikes”….
       This is all a Republican scheme to justify massive spending cuts to social, health, educational  and safety net programs. It is called “Starving the Beast,” and will lead to debilitating and prolonged recession/bear market, increased crime, rioting and civil unrest.  Republicans set the stage with massive, unnecessary tax cuts and a big budget spend (see below: “Corporate Tax Cut Irresponsible”)
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Cambridge Analytica (now in bankruptcy) is center stage again. Palmer.com  reports  someone behind the scenes is trying to block  Britain’s  Channel 4 News from airing an expose  into Cambridge’s role in using  Facebook (FB) to influence voters to vote for Trump and not Clinton.  On Friday,  Facebook  banned Cambridge’s access.  Palmer speculates the Mercers are behind the  attempt to prevent Channel 4’s expose.  I was on  Cambridge’s case back on June 22, 2017,  noting that billionaire Robert Mercer was connected to Cambridge through Canada’s Aggregate IQ through an intellectual property agreement and worked to influence voting  in the Brexit referendum.  Aggregate is a data mining company.  While Aggregate denies any connection,  the story won’t go away. Palmer sees a connection between Cambridge and John Bolton’s SUPER PAC.  Palmer notes that UK Parliament is investigating  the connection between Cambridge and Brexit and documents referred to by Cambridge whistleblower Christopher Wylie reveal  the firm gave stolen Facebook  user data to Bolton’s PAC  (receiving stolen goods ?), though it is not known how Bolton used the data if his PAC even received it.  (See below: Mercer on the run ?) …………………………………………….
Remember the name Felix Sater, former business associate of Trump, convicted  Russian mafia money laundering figure, and key FBI informant.
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Another name to watch is Ted Malloch who Palmer.com reports was served a subpoena relating to the Trump/Russia probe.  Malloch is a U. S. citizen living in London with close tire to Roger Stone, Brexit leader Nigel Farage and the Trump campaign.  As noted above in Cambridge Analytica, there is a connection to parties involved in Brexit and Trump’s campaign.
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George Nader  has long-standing ties in the Mid-East and Washington over many years.  What appears to be important here is he is cooperating with the Mueller probe not as a wrongdoer, but as a source of information.  He has had ties with the Trump administration through Steve Bannon  and reportedly attended a meeting in the Seychelles Islands January 11, 2017 along with Blackwater founder and former Trump associate, Eric Prince, and Kirill Dmitriev head of a U.S. sanctioned investment firm with close ties to Putin.  Reportedly Nader represented United Arab Emirates’ Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan.
      I referred to the Seychilles meeting on April 5, 2017 noting  the Washington Post reported the meeting was intended to encourage Russia to curtail support for Iran and Syria (Trump wish list) in exchange for lifting U.S. sanctions on Russia.
We’ll see.
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“Protecting guns and profits have become more important than protecting the lives of young people” Henry A. Giroux, Truthout ,  March 4.
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Why are so many Americans beholden to guns ? It could be their sense of security was rocked by 9/11 plus the Great Recession/Bear Market.  Then it could be racial, a fear that people of different colors will eventually outnumber them, prompting  the need (in their paranoid minds) to stage a forceful change in governance (revolution).  This makes little sense, but from their point of  simplemindedness, they feel more secure with a dozen guns and cases of ammunition in house just in case.
     What these whackos don’t understand is they can’t use their guns outside of their homes for fear of injuring or killing an innocent person which not only sends them to jail, but opens them up to a lawsuit where they lose their stock portfolio, car, house and all those “blankies” that  go bang.  ………………………………………

 A quasi-fascist state would give Trump the untethered power he craves.
Read: The Ghost of Fascism in the Age of Trump
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/43529-the-ghost-of-fascism-in-the-age-of-trump
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U.S. Ranking globally and domestically is plunging under Trump
      Global approval of U.S. leadership from 134 countries has plunged to 30% from 48% in just a year.  Clearly, Trump isn’t making America Great Again in the eyes of all other countries.  The downside of this is we need the support of those countries.  Our nationalistic policies are opening doors throughout the world for China. A Gallup poll shows Germany replacing the U.S. as the top-rated power in the world.
      Under Trump, the United States has dropped to 11th place in the Bloomberg Innovation Index, which in addition  to  R&D spending, includes post secondary, or tertiary, education-efficiency category, which includes the share of new science and engineering graduates. Value-added manufacturing also dropped.  South Korea ranked first, followed by Sweden, Singapore, Germany, Switzerland, Japan, Finland, Denmark, France, Israel.
       Also under Trump, Americans’ trust in institutions (government, companies and the  media) has suffered the greatest loss on record according to a poll conducted by Edelman New York. The poll, including 33,000 “informed” individuals showed the U.S. dropping to 43 out of a possible 100, down 23 points in a year.  He is a human wrecking ball.
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CORPORATE TAX CUT IRRESPONSIBLE
“It's pure fantasy to think that the tax bill will lead to significantly higher wages and growth, as Republicans have promised,” Bloomberg continued. Had Congress actually listened to executives, or economists who study these issues carefully, it might have realized that. The tax bill is an economically indefensible blunder that will harm our future” –   Michael Bloomberg – billionaire business man former mayor NYC

      I don’t doubt some corporations need, and deserve a tax cut, but to reduce the rate from 35% to 21% is inexcusable, reckless, unjustifiable, and outright subversive to the best interests of America.
      Corporate income taxes comprise 9% of federal government receipts. If corporate taxes are slashed by 40% (from 35% to 21%), the government’s receipts from corporations are reduced by 3.6% from 9%.
      Individual income tax payments comprise 47% of  federal government receipts. At this point, I have no idea how much of an impact  Congress’ tax cuts will have on this source of federal revenues, but it stands to be significant.
      The Republican administration expects economic growth will be triggered by a sudden change in heart by corporations to abandon stock buybacks and the repatriation of billions stashed abroad to plug the big hole left in federal receipts by tax cuts with a surge in hiring and capital expenditures.
      That assumption is flawed. For one, why would a corporation  go on a hiring and cap-ex spending spree  with an economic expansion that  is 8-1/2 years old, 3 years longer (73%) than the average over 65 years (1945 – 2009).
      For another, are they naïve enough to assume there will be no recessions within the next 10 years ?
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Mercer on the run ?  Bannon and Breitbart bankroller, Robert Mercer is rapidly severing financial ties to Breitbart News and support of Steve Bannon and alt-right’s Milo Yiannopoulos. Mercer was a major supporter of Sen. Ted Cruz’s effort to gain the Republican nomination last year, but switched his allegiance to Trump when he won the nomination.
      In my March 21 post, I wrote, “Years from now, I suspect Mercer will be relaxing at his Long Island waterfront retreat, Owl’s Nest, or on his 200-foot yacht, Sea Owl, and look back over his illustrious career tarnished  by one regret – he backed the biggest con job in our nation’s history.”
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Red states In need of Fed government help the most
Six states (Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Utah, Wisconsin),  are planning to require poverty stricken people on Medicaid  to get jobs  or lose the coverage. Maine, Utah and Wisconsin want to put a time limit on coverage, the latter wants to drug-test people. Excluded: People with long-tern disabilities, the elderly, and children.  Isn’t it bad enough these people are in poverty ? 
      Vox Media reports that 9.8 million Medicaid recipients  don’t have jobs  due to: Illness/disabled (35%), retired (8%), taking care of home or family (28%), going to school (18%), cannot find work (8%). The remaining 60.2 million Americans on Medicaid work full-time of part-time.  I’m not sure what’s the Republican beef here.
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TRUMP’S PARDON POWER
     The President has the power to grant conditional pardons; to commute sentences; remit fines and forfeitures; and grant amnesty. This power can be exercised at any time after the offense has been committed, before conviction of after. Pardons cannot be limited by or controlled by legislative action (US legal.com)
Expect Trump to attempt to pardon anyone he wants, including himself. It’s a way out of facing responsibility very much like dodging the draft. Like when he justified his numerous bankruptcies, saying he only used U.S. laws to his advantage.  Well, “pardons” are his prerogative, in many, not all cases. He would take advantage of whatever loophole to avoid consequences, sort of like dodging the draft, or did I already say that ?
     The President cannot pardon people for “state” crimes, and it is doubtful he can pardon himself.
      Can the Mueller investigation survive Mueller’s firing ?
Slate.com’s July 21 article, “Trump can’t Escape the States,” says “YES.”
1-A state [NY] could hire Mueller and team.
2-State attorneys general could use their quo warranto power to investigate Trump’s organization for fraud and money laundering from Russian sources.
3-A Congressional committee (Senate Intelligence Committee) could hire Mueller or create a Joint select Committee.
4-Congress could pass a new veto-proof independent counsel statute.
FINALLY: If Trump resigns and Pence takes over, Pence could pardon Trump, as Ford did Nixon.
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THE GREAT AMERICAN EXPERIMENT UNDER SEIGE:  Not since the Civil War has the spirit and future of our nation been at such great risk, from within.  This  administration, Congress and U.S. Supreme Court is surgically dismembering  efforts over many years to ensure the safety  and well being of “all” Americans.
     The sooner, Americans recognize these are not genuine Republican conservatives, but extremists determined dismantle that which has been achieved over the years and replace it with “their” brand  of a  quasi-fascist state.  Ben Franklin was right when asked what kind of government  the Founding Fathers had given us.  “A Republic, if you can keep it,” was his response.
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TRUMP looking for a “Get Out Of Jail Free Card if the Feds close in?”
    Why not, he dodged military service with 5 deferments  during the Vietnam era (1964 – 1970).
     Reportedly, he has asked advisers about his power to pardon family members and himself  relating to Mueller’s investigation.
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WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE INVESTIGATION IS COMPLETED ? If the Special Counselor  concludes it is “necessary and appropriate” he is authorized to prosecute federal crimes arising out of the investigation, which he does after submitting a report to the attorney general explaining his reasons.

REASONS NEEDED TO FIRE MUELLER:  Misconduct,  dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, good cause (??), violation of Department policies.
WOULD MUELLER BE REPLACED ? Unclear. If the Democrats controlled Congress they could appoint another Special Counselor
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  “Connect the Dots.” This investigation is open-ended. These are people were part of the Trump team, or in a position to know information relating to activities before or after the 2016 election, though  not necessarily in any way guilty of any wrongdoing.
       Nigel Farage – President Trump- Hope Hicks, Jeffrey Sessions – Robert Mercer – Cambridge Analytics – Bannon- Carter Page – Kushner (Jared and Ivanka) – Eric Prince – Donald, Jr.  and Eric Trump – Wilbur Ross –  Michael Cohen – Ezra Cohen Watnick – Michael T. Flynn – Michael G. Flynn ( son)  – JD Gordon  –  Christopher Steele – Michael Caputo -Breitbart News – Roger Stone – Julian Assange – Paul Manafort – Rick Gates – Jill Stein – Sam Clovis –  Kellyanne and George Conway –Dana Rohrabacher – Bill Browder – Peter W. Smith (deceased: suicide), Paul Behrends – Brad Parscale – Sam Nunberg – Dan Scavino – Keith Schiller –  Alex Van Der waan – Ted Malloch -Boris Epshteyn, Ike Kaveladze, and  Russia’s alfa Group – Felix Sater – Rob Goldstone – alfa Group – Emin Agalarov – Sergey Gorkov –  Sergey Kislyak, ambassador to the U.S., Natalia Veselnitskaya, Oleg Deripaska all connect directly or indirectly to the Trump/Russia investigation and some have a connection to Brexit, as well.
      According to the “Observer,” Mercer’s Cambridge Analytica was connected with Canada’s AggregateIQ through an intellectual property agreement and worked together on the Brexit referendum. Aggregate is also a data mining company. While Mercer was a big supporter of Trump, there is no known connection between AggregateIQ and Trump’s campaign staff.
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 REMOVING TRUMP FROM  OFFICE
Can Section 4 of the 25th Amendment, U.S. Constitution – Remove Trump ?
      It’s a stretch.  The key for his removal is ”that he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.”  Section 4 mentions nothing  that he is unfit, delusional, unbalanced, crazy,  impulsive, irrational, impaired, sociopathic, psychopathic, narcissistic.
      That would be the threshold that would have to be crossed if Trump is removed from office via Section 4 of the 25th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. There is no precedent

      It isn’t just Democrats, liberals, moderates and reasonable people who find Trump caustic, and dangerous, conservatives like George Will, David Brooks and Ross Douthart are also urging his removal.
      First, there are four ways to get rid of Trump – death, resignation, impeachment and Section 4 of the 25th Amendment.
      The procedure employing the 25th Amendment requires the Vice President and the majority of the cabinet of 15 (8) to vote to remove the president. They would submit their declaration in writing to the President pro tempore ( Sen. Orrin Hatch) and Speaker of the House (Paul Ryan) that the president is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, and the Vice President will immediately assume to office as acting president.
      However, the president may contend the move by submitting his own letter to the President pro tempore and Speaker of the House, that he believes he is capable of performing his duties, in which case he will resume the office of presidency.
       The Vice President and Cabinet members may then resubmit their declaration at which point Congress would vote within 48 hours if in session. If not, Congress  will act within 21 days where a two-thirds vote would be required to remove  him.  
        However, as “Business Insider.com” noted on Jan. 9, 2018, Trump could simply fire the Cabinet members who voted to oust him from office.
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IMPEACHMENT
      A  Consult/Politico poll shows 43% of Americans want Congress to begin procedures for the impeachment of President Trump.
      The U.S. Constitution  enables Congress to remove a president for “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.” Initially, the House votes on one or more articles of impeachment- if a majority vote is reached, he is impeached.  BUT, impeachment only means indictment. The Senate holds a trial overseen by the chief justice and Supreme Court. A group of House members serve as prosecutors and the Senate as jurors. If two-thirds of the senators find the president guilty, he is removed from office and the vice president takes over.
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Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com
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George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Street Desperately Hoping For Ease at Fed or on Tariffs

INVESTORS first read.com – Daily edge before the open           
DJIA: 24,748
S&P 500:2,682
Nasdaq Com.:2,082
Russell 2000: 1,492
Wednesday, November 28,  2018  8:31 a.m.
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gbifr79@gmail.com

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This volatility is EXACTLY what I meant when on December 27, 2017, I Warned:
“2018: The Wildest One in Years.” 
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“No one is bearish, and that’s BEARISH…Odds favor a 12%-18% correction” – Jan. 22, 2018: DJIA:26,214. 
(A 14-day 12.2% correction started 4 days later.)
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Trump – a human wrecking ball (1/3/17)…….and a pathological liar !
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What’s so Christian about favoring the rich over the poor ?
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“Accuse the other side of that which you are guilty.”
                                         Joseph Goebbels, Nazi propaganda minister.
Damn it ! I miss decency
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WARNING ! When the market gets hammered, expect the Trump administration and Wall Streeters to crank out anything that resembles good news that could stop the carnage.  Ignore them. This is often the trigger for bear market rallies that suck investors in before the next move down.
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Market Status: 
         After a weak open, the market rebounded to extend Monday’s advance. This was necessary if this market is going to emerge from a double bottom pattern.
         Without  a Fed policy change or major concessions by both the United States and China on tariffs, the upside is limited.
          At this point, I do not see a resumption of the 2009 – 2018 bull market without these changes.
         
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 Economic Status: Late stage expansion with recession starting in late 2019. Bull markets hit peak 6 to 12 months ahead of recessions. Republicans were in White House in 9 of  the last 10 recessions. Their rosy projections ignore the likelihood of a recession within a year to 18 months. Housing and auto industries already in recession. The crunch can gain momentum ahead of schedule. U.S. fiscal crisis looms 2-3 years out.
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TECHNICAL OBSERVATIONS FOR “TRADERS” FAVORITES    

All the growth stocks listed below, except possibly Apple have registered turning patterns and can be expected to move higher over the near-to-intermediate term.  The following support levels must hold or the downtrend  that has persisted in recent months will be renewed.
      This whole exercise was to find a price level that would stop the carnage of the growth stocks.  If these support levels are broken, I will pick up on these stocks again.

FB: 126; AMZN: 1,470; NFLX: 250; GOOG:1,005; AAPL: 170.
Coverage will not continue unless these stocks become high risks again.
Apple is the one at greatest risk with 158 a possibility

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THE MARKET TODAY

          Expect the market to respond to rumors or expectations coming out of the G20 meeting.  The most important would be about TARIFFS.  Both the U.S. and China are feeling the pinch, but other than “words” what real action will occur.
         I expect Trump and Xi to agree to agree at some point in the future
      There is no reason for Trump to be in a hurry to yield – no election nearterm.  I can see the market rising in anticipation of progress, only to be disappointed by the end result.  This is a global stage for both Trump and Xi, neither will yield a lot.
          Obviously, the Street is not concerned about a constitutional crisis, or even with evidence that a recession looms in 2019.
           That is not good reason for investors to ignore the risks. Confidence drives stocks up, Lack of it drives them down.
           CNBC has reported a study by ImpactECON that Trump’s tariffs could cost American households  $2,400 in 2019 the form of higher prices, lower wages and lower investment returns. 
            Trump’s  trade  war is adversely impacting the corporate decision process, investment in plant, and equipment, supply chains and the bottom line. This is on top of rising interest rates and slowing global demand.
        EXPECT FIREWORKS any day from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. While the Street couldn’t give a hoot for most big news relating  to Mueller, it hasn’t been hit with really bad game-changing bad news,     
         General Motors (GM) stock jumped sharply yesterday when the company announced layoffs of 14,300 workers and  five plant closings.  Ahh duh !   GM’s stock rose on this news ?  A lot of  people and businesses, and industries rely on  the auto industry, why would bad news NOT suggest a problem for the  economy.

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      TECHNICAL OBSERVATION:
     
The market will start the day on a positive note with  a sharp advance at the open, at least as I write at 8:40,
      The Street hopes the Fed will make a statement that if the economy deteriorates further in coming months, it will not raise its benchmark (fed funds) rate four times in 2019. The Fed must be careful here. It can’t be intimidated by the White House.  If  the U.S. runs into an ugly recession, the Fed has few arrows in its quiver to respond. Interest rates are still low, it is trimming its balance sheet and our irresponsible Congress already gave corporate America an undeserved huge tax cut.  There is no life preserver big enough.
       Then too, the Street hopes for a breakthrough in Trump’s disastrous tariff tiff with China, it’s past the ouch point here and abroad.
        Words suck – what is needed is action and follow through, so a big run up here can only hold with tangible results. I was never impressed with G20 meets – a lot of egos huffing and puffing in an effort to look important on a global stage.
        But, it is what it is – a stage …….hold the bouquets     
        That said, this rally can run higher (DJIA: 25,400, S&P 500: 2,730, Nasdaq Comp.:7,271 if it gets a goose from the Fed or  on tariffs. Today’s resistance is noted below.  A risky rally to play. If nothing comes of the G20 meet, the market is back on the ropes bobbing and weaving, trying not to go down for an 8-count….or worse.
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SUPPORT “today: DJIA:24,701; S&P 500:2,706; Nasdaq Comp.:7,097
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:25,917; S&P 500:2,706:Nasdaq Comp.:7,117
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Technical Note: Frequently, there is what I refer to as a mid-afternoon counter move (2:30 – 3:00 where the market rallies or declines against the prevailing trend for the day.   This can be a fake out for investors thinking the market has turned (up or down).
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        A. Gary Shilling  just turned bearish in his November issue, headlining his issue of “INSUGHT“ with “Looming Recession ?”   I have tracked Shilling for decades. He nailed the 2007 – 2009 Great Recession Bear Market before anyone else. For him to suddenly turn negative is  a shocker.  He details his reasons in a 50-page analysis that  is overwhelming in detail and backed up with stats and graphs. No one in my experience has more economic/investing integrity than Shilling. 
 
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IMPORTANT NOTES:
>
Through September, this bull market is 116 months old, or 3.5 times longer than the average of the last  15  bull markets..
>Bear markets start 6 – 12 months ahead of the onset of a recession.  
>Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House
>The current economic expansion has lasted 123 months. That’s 65 months (2.1x) longer than the average expansion (58.4 months) going back to 1945.
>Of the 10 recessions since 1950,the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was 3.8 Months.
> Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months. 
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Bear Market Perspective

      Officially, we are not in a bear market until the S&P 500 declines 20% (2,352).  That would translate into DJIA 21,560 – “ouch” !
       That’s the minimum drop for a bear, but the last two bears crushed the S&P 500 by 57% (2007-2009) and 50% (2000-2002).  
My bear market target would be declines of
      DJIA: 18,500 (-31.4%)
      S&P 500 :  2,150 (-27.0%)
      Nasdaq Comp.:5,200 (-36.1%)
      But, depending on what new negatives hit the market when it gets down there, the bear market could reach much, much  lower levels.
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EARNINGS GROWTH MYTH:
       The Street is counting on earnings growth to reduce the overvaluation of equities.   Look again.

       A 20% increase in S&P 500 earnings this year will  be tough to beat next year.  The quarter versus year ago quarters in 2019 will make poor reading going up against the 2018 earnings, possibly earnings growth around  5%. But the Street is not factoring in the likelihood of a recession, which could mean negative growth.
       At times, politics has little impact on the big  picture. This time is different.

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BULLISH CASE
      A sharp increase in corporate earnings is what the bulls are relying on to power the market higher.
      Q2 earnings increased 25.0% over a year ago.
      Thomson Reuters projects Q3’s increase in earnings to  hit 20.5% and Q4 18.0%.
      However 2019 is a different story with earnings increases of Q1: +7.0%, Q2: +5.1%, Q3: +5.9% and Q4: +3.9%, that averages out to +5.4%.
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BEARISH CASE
RISING INTEREST RATES:
      >The Fed is persistently raising its benchmark interest rate (federal funds), as well as reducing its inflated balance sheet,  which will drive other rates higher, which will adversely impact interest sensitive industries.  . 
      >The 10-year treasury has been rising steadily and now stands at 3.09%.
      > The yield curve is flattening as short-term treasuries rise faster than long-tern governments just another warning sign of impending recession.
 OVERVALUED MARKET
      > The onset of bear markets have led the beginning of recessions by 8.5 months going back to 1956, so don’t look for a recession to signal a bear market. The longest lead time was 13 months (1968 – 1969) The “mode” (most frequent) is 12 months.
       > If companies are buying back their own stock at a record clip, pushing stocks higher, why then are insiders selling $8 of stock for every $1 of stock they buy ?
       .> Companies took advantage of low interest rates to load up on debt in recent years for acquisitions and to buy back their own stock. Excluding banks, the tally is $6.3trillion. The downside of this comes when these companies will need to refinance this debt at higher interest rates when it comes due.
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       > The S&P 500 price to sales ratio at 2.30 is 40% higher than in 2007 before the devastating bear market, and is even higher than in March 2000 before the dot-com bubble burst leading to a bear market. Both bear markets dropped 50%.
       > The Shiller P/E is 31.5  times earnings versus a mean of 16.6.  Shiller’s P/E is based on  inflation adjusted earnings over 10 years.
       > The Total Market Capitalization to GDP  stands at 147.3%, anything above 115% is  considered “overvalued.”
        > Thompson Reuters reports the S&P 500 sells at 18.1 times earnings and 16.2 times a year from now. All this versus a 10-year average of 14.3.
AGING BULL MARKET:
       > The bull market is now  nine years and six months old (115 months).  That’s 3.5 times the average of the last 15 bull markets.
AGING ECONOMIC EXPANSION:
      > Republicans – the recession party. Nine of last 10 recession have been with a Republican in the White House.  Odds favor Trump will make 10 for 11.
      > The current economic expansion has lasted 112 months. That’s 53 months (1.9 x) longer than the average expansion going back to 1945.  Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House.
      > Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months. 
      > Housing stocks have been in a prolonged slump since January. The iShares  home construction ETF has dropped 20.5%, as interest rates rise. Not only is it  major employer, its health affects other industries, especially furniture and appliances..
      > Household debt increased for the 16th straight quarter to 13.3 trillion, that’s 19%  above the post-financial-crisis low.
      > Jamie Dimon, CEO J.P. Morgan Chase,  thinks the benchmark  10-yearTreasury note , now 2.95%, should be 5%. The rate impacts lending for autos, mortgages and businesses.
      > Personal loans have soared   18% to  a record 120 billion, Personal savings as percent of disposable income at 3%, down from 9% in 2012.
      > Low interest rates have encouraged US companies to go on a debt binge, amassing  $6.3 trillion. With rates on the increase, refinancing will get more costly, according to S&P analyst, Andrew Chang, who points out that this amounts to $8 for every $1 in cash.
      > Recently, 1,100 economists WARN Trump is repeating biggest mistakes of Great Depression – tariffs, trade protectionism, according to conservative National Taxpayers’ Union.
      > Former Fed Chair, Ben Bernanke, says economy to fall off a cliff in 2020, thanks to the $1.5 trillion corporate and individual tax cut and $300 billion increase in spending.              
TRUMP’S TRADE WAR TANTRUM
      > Trump’s tariff tiff costing  US companies a bundle:  The damage extends to manufacturers, input suppliers, fishermen, and numerous businesses who are finding it more difficult to sell abroad.
      > Today’s businesses are complex, especially supply chains that can involve a thousand parts that make up a whole product, many of which are sourced from different countries, sometimes crossing back and forth across the same border a number of times.
      >  Trump is considering leaving World Trade Organization (WTO).
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IMPLODING:
      So far, the stock market has not wavered in face of the increasing likelihood, Trump and many present and former associates are in legal trouble.
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POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET

SUPREME STUPIDITY !
Trump vs. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts.  Rough guess here, but I would say Roberts thumps Trump every time they get in the ring.
Trump bashed  a decision by the Ninth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for ruling that the administration must consider claims of asylum regardless of where migrants cross the border, which rejected Trump’s wishes. He accused the court of bias blaming an  “Obama judge” for the ruling.  Roberts retaliated claiming the Court doesn’t have Obama, Bush, Clinton, or Trump judges.  …that an independent judiciary is something we should be thankful for.
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COWARDS ? Now is the time for the Republican-controlled Senate to do the American thing and protect the Special Counsel from  President Trump’s effort to undermine it.  This is no longer politics in general, this is about whether or not we are a nation of laws. Failure to do that, and I am convinced certain members of Congress are constitutional anarchists determined to destroy our republic.
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Rogue wave…. or monstrous blue wave ?
Real Americans are rising up to save our republic, and all the quality of life things worked and died for over the years.   After 2020, the right wing Republicans will be irrelevant, forced to climb back under the rock from which they emerged.
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What in the  Hell is wrong with us ?  These Central American peoples of all ages are willing to trek thousands of miles to attempt to enter America, and we are sending troops to back up border control to deny them legal entrance.  SHAME on our President, the selfish Republican party.  By their admirable efforts, they are demonstrating the kind of resolve we want in our workforce.
Christian ?   No, freaking way.  Our leaders are the epitome of  the  anti-Christ !  Hypocrites and un-American at heart ! 
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Trump has proposed a  5 percent budget cut for each Cabinet agency yesterday.
     Wait just a minute !
Didn’t Congress pass a $1.3trillion catchall spending bill earlier in the year after passing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in December, which gave corporations a 40% tax cut, and was skewed heavily in favor of big earners with the rest of the country getting a cut around 1%.
      According to the Treasury Dept. the federal deficit for FY Sept. 30 was $779 billion, up 17% from a year ago primarily due to the shortfall in revenues from corporations as a result of their huge tax cuts.
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Bath Iron Works (Maine) Gets $3.9 billion Navy Award 7 days before Sen. Collin’s “Yes” Vote for Kavanaugh
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      Reecntly, Bill Palmer, PalmerReports.com, gave his reason why Nikki Haley resigned from her post as United Nations Ambassador.

       The story was carried in more detail by the Business Insider.com, which points to her resignation one day after Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) requested the State Dept. investigate her acceptance of seven free flights aboard private jets  from three South Carolina business men.
      While she listed the flights on her 2017 financial disclosure, the information was incomplete according to CREW and did not qualify for an exemption.
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       Breaking: Concern that right wingers are set to rewrite the United States Constitution via an Article V Convention, or Amendments Convention, called by two-thirds of the state legislatures (34).  A three-quarter vote is required for an amendment to become part of the Constitution.   Reportedly, right wingers want to convert our system of government to a confederation of “supreme” states, essentially minimizing the present amount of federal control.
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Trump in hot water on tax evasion and the legitimacy of his inheritance ?
We’ll see !!
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     Since Deputy Atty Gen’l Rod Rosenstein would not fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller, assuming Trump first fired Rosenstein.
     On November 8, 2017, I noted Brian Benczkowski was nominated by President Trump in June [2017] to be U.S. Assistant Attorney General for the Criminal Division. Along party lines, he was confirmed by the Senate recently, raising the question would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein was fired and he  was appointed in his place. He said he would not recuse himself from  questions in the Mueller investigation.
     The big question mark here is that Benczkowski had represented Russia’s Alfa Bank at some point in the past and had no prosecutorial experience.  He had worked for Atty Gen’l Jeff Sessions and the Bush administration and was not opposed by Rosenstein.
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     Palmerreport.com believes Roger Stone will be the next person indicted/arrested by Special Counsel Robert Mueller.
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  As if Trump did not have enough problems, here comes Allen Weisselberg, long-time CFO of the Trump Organization and now a recipient of “immunity” from  the Attorney General of New York.
       This is especially significant, notes PalmerReports.com, since he is testifying about state level charges in addition to federal charges, which cannot be nullified by a Trump pardon.
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      NO ATTORNEY CLIENT PRIVILEGE: Palmerreport.com reminds readers that Trump has NO attorney-Client privilege with Ty Cobb who he hired on July 14, 2017 to help with the Russia scandal. To save personal funds, Trump put Cobb on the White House payroll, so Cobb is free to disclose any information Special Counsel Mueller wants him to.
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  I expect Attorney General Sessions to be fired or to resign any day now.  That puts Deputy Atty. Gen. Rod Rosenstein in jeopardy.  Will Brian Benszkowski be moved in the fill the void. Would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein were fired ?
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HEADS UP !   A majority vote in both the House and Senate can change the number of Justices on the Supreme Court. The number is fixed by statute, not by the Constitution. It has ranged between 6 and 10 since 1789.
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DAMN  IT !   I miss decency.
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“President” Trump has made 4,229 false (lies) and misleading claims since his inauguration. (Washington Post). …………………………………………………………………   
WOULD ANYONE WANT their spouse to lie repeatedly ?, their child ?, mother ?, father ?, minister ?, child’s teacher ?,  coach ?, employer ?.  IF NOT, why would they support President Trump who is on record with telling 4.5 lies per day,  4,200 lies since his inauguration on January 20 ?. 
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Trump boasts about the stock market in his first 31 months as President, but the S&P 500 appreciated 149% during President Obama’s first 31 months in office, 2 ½ times as it advanced under Trump, and Obama inherited the worst stock market/economic collapse since the 1930s, Trump inherited a strong stock market and economic recovery.
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The U.S. Chamber of Commerce currently estimates the impact of Trump tariffs on the following states stand to be: Louisiana ($5.2 bil.), Washington ($5.7 bil.), Texas ($1.4 bil.), S. Carolina ($2.6 bil.), Illinois ($2.1 bil.), California ($4.0 bil.), Kentucky ($917 mil.), Michigan (842 mil.), Ohio ($826 mil.).
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Orwellian: George Orwell’s 1984 wretched society was controlled by denial of the truth,  the dissemination of  misinformation, propaganda, and surveillance, i.e., Big Brother is watching.    “Just remember what you are seeing  and what you are reading is not what’s happening.” Trump  told the VFW July 24
“The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears…” George Orwell’s  dystopian novel – “1984”  published in 1949.
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A recent Gallup poll shows  how  people polled  would vote if the election were held today
Democrats      30%
Republicans   26%
Independents 40%

The key here is twofold. The Democrats must get their vote out, which may be difficult in face of Republican voter suppression. Then too, they need to get a lot  of the Independent vote, which will be helped as Americans see the Trump administration gut treasured institutions, regulations designed to ensure a better environment in the future, healthcare, and undermine time-tested, valued global alliances while cultivating the favor of enemies.
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Special Counsel Robert Mueller  must comply with regulations, rules, procedures, and policies of the Department of Justice as set forth in 28 CFR 600. He can only be removed for misconduct, dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, or other good cause, including violation of the Department’s policy.
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What Trump and his base have in common: They both deplore the same people – people of color, the handicapped, liberals, foreigners.
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VOTES FLIPPED for TRUMP  in Key States in 2016
      Daily Kos’ Aldous Pennyfarthing (Pen name for Tom Breuer)  gave reasons in Alternet.org, July 27, why he thinks the Russians [or someone] flipped votes for Trump in 2016.
      The basis for this conclusion was comparing exit polls with actual outcome in North Carolina Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
 Pennsylvania: Exit polls Clinton 50.5 – Trump 46.1.  Result: Clinton 46.1 –   Trump 48.8.
Wisconsin: Exit poll Clinton 48.2 – Trump 44.3  Result: Clinton 47.6 – Trump 48.8.
North Carolina: Exit poll Clinton  48.6 – Trump 46.5. Result: Clinton 46.1 – Trump 49.9.
      An FOI suit by Bradley Moss (cybersecurity lawyer) brought against the government  revealed Russians hacked inside voting systems in seven big states.
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Wake up out there. These aren’t conservative Republicans, they are anarchists, extremists  who have wrested control of the Republican party over the last 20 years and are intent on a party rule with no checks and balances.  This is  a bloodless coup.
If  they can lock up control of both Houses, the Presidency, Supreme Court and strategic lower court appointments, and a major news media broadcaster, survival of our republic will depend on whose side the military and police forces take.
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 Sinclair Broadcast Group  (BEWARE !)   
      Sinclair Broadcast Group is using its clout as owner of  193 television stations in 80 markets as a lever to manipulate local station viewers’ minds pitching it’s right wing propaganda. Viewers tend to trust local stations programing over national networks.  A July 16, 2018 FCC decision denied Sinclair’s acquisition of the Tribune Broadcast Group, which would have expanded its reach into New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago markets
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 Sinclair Bank (no relation to the broadcast  group) has surfaced as a lender to Michael Cohen, Jared Kushner, his father and Trump.  Ivanka Trump no longer on board. 
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        Treason is defined by Article 3, section 3: Treason, as levying war against the U.S., or in adhering to its enemy, namely aid and comfort, also defined as any act that deliberately strengthens or tends to strengthen enemies of the U.S. or that weakens the power of the U.S. to resist and attack such enemies.
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TRUMP’S BASE:  Some voted for Trump because they always vote Republican. Then there are those whose opinions are based on emotional disorders, those who will never accept the truth no matter what (Confirmation Bias); those who accept bad behavior as the norm (Deviancy Down); and those who while stupid, ill informed who actually believe they are highly intelligent, competent (Dunning Krueger). These people don’t have enough knowledge to know they don’t have enough knowledge, i.e.,too dumb to know they are dumb.(alternet.com 7/23/18)
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July 19, 2018: Republicans refuse to renew election security funding over Russian hacking – Democrats livid, as all of us should be. 
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The Dept. of Justice charged a Russian national, Mariia Butina, of illegally trying to influence American politics using the NRA, religious organizations  as a means of gaining backchannel access to the highest levels of the Republican Party.  Mother Jones says  Butina acted as a covert Russian agent, an unregistered foreign agent.
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      Since Deputy Atty Gen’l Rod Rosenstein would not fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller,   assuming Trump first fired Rosenstein.
     On November 8, I noted Brian Benczkowski was nominated by President Trump in June [2017] to be U.S. Assistant Attorney General for the Criminal Division. Along party lines, he was confirmed by the Senate recently, raising the question would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein was fired and he  was appointed in his place. He said he would not recuse himself from  questions in the Mueller investigation.
     The big question mark here is that Benczkowski had represented Russia’s Alfa Bank at some point in the past and had no prosecutorial experience.  He had worked for Atty Gen’l Jeff Sessions and the Bush administration and was not opposed by Rosenstein.

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A “MALEVOLENT FOOL” – Lt. Col. , Ret’d, Ralph Peters, ex-Fox analyst referring to Trump.   Malevolent: evil, harmful, injurious.
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Un-American ! Trump claims writers of U.S. Constitution treated Him unfairly, adding we have the worst constitution writers in the world…Russia has better constitution writers than we do, says Trump . “I talked with Putin, and he said their constitution never gives him problems.” Andy Borowitz, (The Borowitz Report).
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      WE DON”T WANT TO GO THERE !  The Trump administration is taking the United States straight to a place none of us wants to be – civil unrest,  an extended recession, a fiscal crisis where we can’t pay our bills, ergo the need to slash healthcare, safety net programs, a host of programs that have improved our quality of life.
      This administration’s actions on trade (tariffs, TPP), the intentional divisiveness of America along racial lines, and abandonment of our long-time allies have opened the door for China to dominate the world, economically and militarily.  That’s Un-American.  This has to be stopped.
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Republican strategist, Steve Schmidt, leaves Republican Party after 29 years, saying the party is “corrupt, indecent and immoral,” and with a few exceptions  elected  Republicans are “feckless cowards who disgrace and dishonor the legacies of the party’s greatest leaders.” Others quitting Republican Party: George Will, “Morning” Joe Scarborough. To date, 35 senior Trump advisers have left.
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President Donald Trump is NOT pro-business, he’s pro-Trump
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TRUMP EXIT STRATEGY: The most important thing for King Donald is his image.  Currently he is scrambling to initiate as many perceived accomplishments as possible (taxes, anti-immigrant, anti-allies, deregulation, North Korea, Iran, ISIS, unemployment).
      This way, if he is impeached, defeated in 2020, or forced to resign, he can claim to have been the greatest president of all-time – he’ll tweet it relentlessly, deviancy-downed Americans will believe it and every network in the country, whores that they are, (including MSNBC and CNN) will scramble to cover his tweets.  IMHO: he won’t risk losing in 2020, just not run – declare he has accomplished his mission and walk away.
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POSSIBLE ! That the blue wave won’t happen in November.  Why? The American voter is still zoned out about what is happening – too busy with other stuff, not capable of  objectively analyzing issues accurately without bias.
     The result: The extremist Republicans and their president will run the economy, a constructive foreign relations policy, and America’s quality of life into the ground.  In order to get the American voter’s attention, we have to hit bottom first.
      That means an extended recession, a fiscal crisis (unable to pay bills), a 65% drop in the stock market and,  national unrest greater than that which the Vietnam War attracted.
       We are witnessing the unfolding of  the biggest scandal in our country’s history, including illegal financial transactions, vote tampering and  untethered collusion and obstruction of  justice at the highest level.  This may take years to unravel.
      Again, I say “possible,” not probable..  Probable would be all that but not as severe.
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Corporations got a 40% tax cut, John and Jane Q get a 1.2% – 1.8% cut, even so, Trump plans to introduce a “rescission package” to cut $15 billion in already approved spending on the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation program, as well as 30 other programs. The  U.S. House will likely approve his  rescission  package, the Senate may not.
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According to Bloomberg.com, 1,100 economists warn that Trump is repeating one of the biggest mistakes of the Great Depression – tariffs and trade protectionism. The warning came in a letter from the conservative-leaning National Taxpayers Union.
      China loves it !  Trump opened the door, China entered, capitalizing on Trump’s regressive “America First” mantra, with its far reaching Belt and Road outreach with investments encompassing infrastructure, education, construction materials, rail and hi-way, auto, real estate, power grid and iron and steel investments to 68 countries, 65% of the world’s population and 40% of global GDP.
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      Kim took Trump’s war with North Korea option off the table, so looks like Trump now has his sights set on IRAN – to please his base, of course, in time for the mid-terms, of course
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North Korea give up nuclear weapons ?  Never !  Kim wants a global stage, so does Trump, who will not risk being embarrassed by the little tyrant. Trump will bail.  He needs a villain to trash to please his base. Kim has what he wants.  I think Trump has been played like a harp. 
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Impeachment of Trump unlikely with this Republican House. Trump has surrounded himself with newly appointed Cabinet members, so Section 4 of the 25th amendment is not a reality.   What’s left ?  A deal with Mueller for his RESIGNATION ?
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Must Read: “Will Christian Nationalism Drive Trump’s Base to the Polls in November ?”  Truthout April 15, Bill Berkowitz. This explains why his base of Christians votes for an immoral person, one whose behavior is the antithesis of the teachings of Christ.
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Will Trump  Fire Mueller

      Trump can’t fire Mueller directly, it must be done by the Department of Justice.  Trump would have to find someone to do it.  Nixon did it in 1973 when he had to work through two attorney generals until  his solicitor general, Robert Bork fired Special Prosecutor Archibald Cox. 
      Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein isn’t going to do it, so Trump must find someone from DOJ , or someone outside who has already been confirmed by the Senate who will do it.         Philip Bump, Washington Post (WAPO) April 10, did a great job outlining possibilities in, “Why Trump can’t fire Mueller – at least not directly.”  I can only touch on a few of his points here.
       In his article, Georgetown University’s professor Paul Butler raises the interesting point that  firing Mueller may not be necessary if  Rosenstein is replaced by someone hostile to the Special Counsel’s investigation.  He would simply force a stall with lots of demands, even leak information to the White House.   
       REASONS NEEDED TO FIRE MUELLER: Trump would have to have  good reason to fire Mueller.  Grounds must be, misconduct, dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, or other good cause, including violation of policies of the Department of Justice, and failure to follow Justice Departments guidelines and violation of applicable canons of ethics.
       CAN TRUMP RESCIND  SPECIAL COUNSEL REGULATION ?  Yes, it’s possible but many legal hurdles  would make it difficult and possibly so time consuming as to make the action worthless. There is no clear cut answer. This would be decided in court, the legal ramifications just very complex.
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FISCAL CRISIS LOOMS IN FUTURE:  Headlines:“Federal debt primed to explode”….”U.S. Deficit to Surpass $1 Trillion Two Years Ahead of Estimates”….”This Year’s budget deficit to hit $804 B after tax cuts and spending hikes”….
       This is all a Republican scheme to justify massive spending cuts to social, health, educational  and safety net programs. It is called “Starving the Beast,” and will lead to debilitating and prolonged recession/bear market, increased crime, rioting and civil unrest.  Republicans set the stage with massive, unnecessary tax cuts and a big budget spend (see below: “Corporate Tax Cut Irresponsible”)
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Cambridge Analytica (now in bankruptcy) is center stage again. Palmer.com  reports  someone behind the scenes is trying to block  Britain’s  Channel 4 News from airing an expose  into Cambridge’s role in using  Facebook (FB) to influence voters to vote for Trump and not Clinton.  On Friday,  Facebook  banned Cambridge’s access.  Palmer speculates the Mercers are behind the  attempt to prevent Channel 4’s expose.  I was on  Cambridge’s case back on June 22, 2017,  noting that billionaire Robert Mercer was connected to Cambridge through Canada’s Aggregate IQ through an intellectual property agreement and worked to influence voting  in the Brexit referendum.  Aggregate is a data mining company.  While Aggregate denies any connection,  the story won’t go away. Palmer sees a connection between Cambridge and John Bolton’s SUPER PAC.  Palmer notes that UK Parliament is investigating  the connection between Cambridge and Brexit and documents referred to by Cambridge whistleblower Christopher Wylie reveal  the firm gave stolen Facebook  user data to Bolton’s PAC  (receiving stolen goods ?), though it is not known how Bolton used the data if his PAC even received it.  (See below: Mercer on the run ?) …………………………………………….
Remember the name Felix Sater, former business associate of Trump, convicted  Russian mafia money laundering figure, and key FBI informant.
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Another name to watch is Ted Malloch who Palmer.com reports was served a subpoena relating to the Trump/Russia probe.  Malloch is a U. S. citizen living in London with close tire to Roger Stone, Brexit leader Nigel Farage and the Trump campaign.  As noted above in Cambridge Analytica, there is a connection to parties involved in Brexit and Trump’s campaign.
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George Nader  has long-standing ties in the Mid-East and Washington over many years.  What appears to be important here is he is cooperating with the Mueller probe not as a wrongdoer, but as a source of information.  He has had ties with the Trump administration through Steve Bannon  and reportedly attended a meeting in the Seychelles Islands January 11, 2017 along with Blackwater founder and former Trump associate, Eric Prince, and Kirill Dmitriev head of a U.S. sanctioned investment firm with close ties to Putin.  Reportedly Nader represented United Arab Emirates’ Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan.
      I referred to the Seychilles meeting on April 5, 2017 noting  the Washington Post reported the meeting was intended to encourage Russia to curtail support for Iran and Syria (Trump wish list) in exchange for lifting U.S. sanctions on Russia.
We’ll see.
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“Protecting guns and profits have become more important than protecting the lives of young people” Henry A. Giroux, Truthout ,  March 4.
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Why are so many Americans beholden to guns ? It could be their sense of security was rocked by 9/11 plus the Great Recession/Bear Market.  Then it could be racial, a fear that people of different colors will eventually outnumber them, prompting  the need (in their paranoid minds) to stage a forceful change in governance (revolution).  This makes little sense, but from their point of  simplemindedness, they feel more secure with a dozen guns and cases of ammunition in house just in case.
     What these whackos don’t understand is they can’t use their guns outside of their homes for fear of injuring or killing an innocent person which not only sends them to jail, but opens them up to a lawsuit where they lose their stock portfolio, car, house and all those “blankies” that  go bang.  ………………………………………

 A quasi-fascist state would give Trump the untethered power he craves.
Read: The Ghost of Fascism in the Age of Trump
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/43529-the-ghost-of-fascism-in-the-age-of-trump
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U.S. Ranking globally and domestically is plunging under Trump
      Global approval of U.S. leadership from 134 countries has plunged to 30% from 48% in just a year.  Clearly, Trump isn’t making America Great Again in the eyes of all other countries.  The downside of this is we need the support of those countries.  Our nationalistic policies are opening doors throughout the world for China. A Gallup poll shows Germany replacing the U.S. as the top-rated power in the world.
      Under Trump, the United States has dropped to 11th place in the Bloomberg Innovation Index, which in addition  to  R&D spending, includes post secondary, or tertiary, education-efficiency category, which includes the share of new science and engineering graduates. Value-added manufacturing also dropped.  South Korea ranked first, followed by Sweden, Singapore, Germany, Switzerland, Japan, Finland, Denmark, France, Israel.
       Also under Trump, Americans’ trust in institutions (government, companies and the  media) has suffered the greatest loss on record according to a poll conducted by Edelman New York. The poll, including 33,000 “informed” individuals showed the U.S. dropping to 43 out of a possible 100, down 23 points in a year.  He is a human wrecking ball.
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CORPORATE TAX CUT IRRESPONSIBLE
“It's pure fantasy to think that the tax bill will lead to significantly higher wages and growth, as Republicans have promised,” Bloomberg continued. Had Congress actually listened to executives, or economists who study these issues carefully, it might have realized that. The tax bill is an economically indefensible blunder that will harm our future” –   Michael Bloomberg – billionaire business man former mayor NYC

      I don’t doubt some corporations need, and deserve a tax cut, but to reduce the rate from 35% to 21% is inexcusable, reckless, unjustifiable, and outright subversive to the best interests of America.
      Corporate income taxes comprise 9% of federal government receipts. If corporate taxes are slashed by 40% (from 35% to 21%), the government’s receipts from corporations are reduced by 3.6% from 9%.
      Individual income tax payments comprise 47% of  federal government receipts. At this point, I have no idea how much of an impact  Congress’ tax cuts will have on this source of federal revenues, but it stands to be significant.
      The Republican administration expects economic growth will be triggered by a sudden change in heart by corporations to abandon stock buybacks and the repatriation of billions stashed abroad to plug the big hole left in federal receipts by tax cuts with a surge in hiring and capital expenditures.
      That assumption is flawed. For one, why would a corporation  go on a hiring and cap-ex spending spree  with an economic expansion that  is 8-1/2 years old, 3 years longer (73%) than the average over 65 years (1945 – 2009).
      For another, are they naïve enough to assume there will be no recessions within the next 10 years ?
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Mercer on the run ?  Bannon and Breitbart bankroller, Robert Mercer is rapidly severing financial ties to Breitbart News and support of Steve Bannon and alt-right’s Milo Yiannopoulos. Mercer was a major supporter of Sen. Ted Cruz’s effort to gain the Republican nomination last year, but switched his allegiance to Trump when he won the nomination.
      In my March 21 post, I wrote, “Years from now, I suspect Mercer will be relaxing at his Long Island waterfront retreat, Owl’s Nest, or on his 200-foot yacht, Sea Owl, and look back over his illustrious career tarnished  by one regret – he backed the biggest con job in our nation’s history.”
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Red states In need of Fed government help the most
Six states (Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Utah, Wisconsin),  are planning to require poverty stricken people on Medicaid  to get jobs  or lose the coverage. Maine, Utah and Wisconsin want to put a time limit on coverage, the latter wants to drug-test people. Excluded: People with long-tern disabilities, the elderly, and children.  Isn’t it bad enough these people are in poverty ? 
      Vox Media reports that 9.8 million Medicaid recipients  don’t have jobs  due to: Illness/disabled (35%), retired (8%), taking care of home or family (28%), going to school (18%), cannot find work (8%). The remaining 60.2 million Americans on Medicaid work full-time of part-time.  I’m not sure what’s the Republican beef here.
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TRUMP’S PARDON POWER
     The President has the power to grant conditional pardons; to commute sentences; remit fines and forfeitures; and grant amnesty. This power can be exercised at any time after the offense has been committed, before conviction of after. Pardons cannot be limited by or controlled by legislative action (US legal.com)
Expect Trump to attempt to pardon anyone he wants, including himself. It’s a way out of facing responsibility very much like dodging the draft. Like when he justified his numerous bankruptcies, saying he only used U.S. laws to his advantage.  Well, “pardons” are his prerogative, in many, not all cases. He would take advantage of whatever loophole to avoid consequences, sort of like dodging the draft, or did I already say that ?
     The President cannot pardon people for “state” crimes, and it is doubtful he can pardon himself.
      Can the Mueller investigation survive Mueller’s firing ?
Slate.com’s July 21 article, “Trump can’t Escape the States,” says “YES.”
1-A state [NY] could hire Mueller and team.
2-State attorneys general could use their quo warranto power to investigate Trump’s organization for fraud and money laundering from Russian sources.
3-A Congressional committee (Senate Intelligence Committee) could hire Mueller or create a Joint select Committee.
4-Congress could pass a new veto-proof independent counsel statute.
FINALLY: If Trump resigns and Pence takes over, Pence could pardon Trump, as Ford did Nixon.
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THE GREAT AMERICAN EXPERIMENT UNDER SEIGE:  Not since the Civil War has the spirit and future of our nation been at such great risk, from within.  This  administration, Congress and U.S. Supreme Court is surgically dismembering  efforts over many years to ensure the safety  and well being of “all” Americans.
     The sooner, Americans recognize these are not genuine Republican conservatives, but extremists determined dismantle that which has been achieved over the years and replace it with “their” brand  of a  quasi-fascist state.  Ben Franklin was right when asked what kind of government  the Founding Fathers had given us.  “A Republic, if you can keep it,” was his response.
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TRUMP looking for a “Get Out Of Jail Free Card if the Feds close in?”
    Why not, he dodged military service with 5 deferments  during the Vietnam era (1964 – 1970).
     Reportedly, he has asked advisers about his power to pardon family members and himself  relating to Mueller’s investigation.
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WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE INVESTIGATION IS COMPLETED ? If the Special Counselor  concludes it is “necessary and appropriate” he is authorized to prosecute federal crimes arising out of the investigation, which he does after submitting a report to the attorney general explaining his reasons.

REASONS NEEDED TO FIRE MUELLER:  Misconduct,  dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, good cause (??), violation of Department policies.
WOULD MUELLER BE REPLACED ? Unclear. If the Democrats controlled Congress they could appoint another Special Counselor
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  “Connect the Dots.” This investigation is open-ended. These are people were part of the Trump team, or in a position to know information relating to activities before or after the 2016 election, though  not necessarily in any way guilty of any wrongdoing.
       Nigel Farage – President Trump- Hope Hicks, Jeffrey Sessions – Robert Mercer – Cambridge Analytics – Bannon- Carter Page – Kushner (Jared and Ivanka) – Eric Prince – Donald, Jr.  and Eric Trump – Wilbur Ross –  Michael Cohen – Ezra Cohen Watnick – Michael T. Flynn – Michael G. Flynn ( son)  – JD Gordon  –  Christopher Steele – Michael Caputo -Breitbart News – Roger Stone – Julian Assange – Paul Manafort – Rick Gates – Jill Stein – Sam Clovis –  Kellyanne and George Conway –Dana Rohrabacher – Bill Browder – Peter W. Smith (deceased: suicide), Paul Behrends – Brad Parscale – Sam Nunberg – Dan Scavino – Keith Schiller –  Alex Van Der waan – Ted Malloch -Boris Epshteyn, Ike Kaveladze, and  Russia’s alfa Group – Felix Sater – Rob Goldstone – alfa Group – Emin Agalarov – Sergey Gorkov –  Sergey Kislyak, ambassador to the U.S., Natalia Veselnitskaya, Oleg Deripaska all connect directly or indirectly to the Trump/Russia investigation and some have a connection to Brexit, as well.
      According to the “Observer,” Mercer’s Cambridge Analytica was connected with Canada’s AggregateIQ through an intellectual property agreement and worked together on the Brexit referendum. Aggregate is also a data mining company. While Mercer was a big supporter of Trump, there is no known connection between AggregateIQ and Trump’s campaign staff.
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 REMOVING TRUMP FROM  OFFICE
Can Section 4 of the 25th Amendment, U.S. Constitution – Remove Trump ?
      It’s a stretch.  The key for his removal is ”that he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.”  Section 4 mentions nothing  that he is unfit, delusional, unbalanced, crazy,  impulsive, irrational, impaired, sociopathic, psychopathic, narcissistic.
      That would be the threshold that would have to be crossed if Trump is removed from office via Section 4 of the 25th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. There is no precedent

      It isn’t just Democrats, liberals, moderates and reasonable people who find Trump caustic, and dangerous, conservatives like George Will, David Brooks and Ross Douthart are also urging his removal.
      First, there are four ways to get rid of Trump – death, resignation, impeachment and Section 4 of the 25th Amendment.
      The procedure employing the 25th Amendment requires the Vice President and the majority of the cabinet of 15 (8) to vote to remove the president. They would submit their declaration in writing to the President pro tempore ( Sen. Orrin Hatch) and Speaker of the House (Paul Ryan) that the president is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, and the Vice President will immediately assume to office as acting president.
      However, the president may contend the move by submitting his own letter to the President pro tempore and Speaker of the House, that he believes he is capable of performing his duties, in which case he will resume the office of presidency.
       The Vice President and Cabinet members may then resubmit their declaration at which point Congress would vote within 48 hours if in session. If not, Congress  will act within 21 days where a two-thirds vote would be required to remove  him.  
        However, as “Business Insider.com” noted on Jan. 9, 2018, Trump could simply fire the Cabinet members who voted to oust him from office.
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IMPEACHMENT
      A  Consult/Politico poll shows 43% of Americans want Congress to begin procedures for the impeachment of President Trump.
      The U.S. Constitution  enables Congress to remove a president for “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.” Initially, the House votes on one or more articles of impeachment- if a majority vote is reached, he is impeached.  BUT, impeachment only means indictment. The Senate holds a trial overseen by the chief justice and Supreme Court. A group of House members serve as prosecutors and the Senate as jurors. If two-thirds of the senators find the president guilty, he is removed from office and the vice president takes over.
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Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com
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George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INVESTORS first read.com – Daily edge before the open           
DJIA: 24,748
S&P 500:2,682
Nasdaq Com.:2,082
Russell 2000: 1,492
Wednesday, November 28,  2018  8:31 a.m.
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gbifr79@gmail.com

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This volatility is EXACTLY what I meant when on December 27, 2017, I Warned:
“2018: The Wildest One in Years.” 
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“No one is bearish, and that’s BEARISH…Odds favor a 12%-18% correction” – Jan. 22, 2018: DJIA:26,214. 
(A 14-day 12.2% correction started 4 days later.)
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Trump – a human wrecking ball (1/3/17)…….and a pathological liar !
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What’s so Christian about favoring the rich over the poor ?
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“Accuse the other side of that which you are guilty.”
                                         Joseph Goebbels, Nazi propaganda minister.
Damn it ! I miss decency
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WARNING ! When the market gets hammered, expect the Trump administration and Wall Streeters to crank out anything that resembles good news that could stop the carnage.  Ignore them. This is often the trigger for bear market rallies that suck investors in before the next move down.
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Market Status: 
         After a weak open, the market rebounded to extend Monday’s advance. This was necessary if this market is going to emerge from a double bottom pattern.
         Without  a Fed policy change or major concessions by both the United States and China on tariffs, the upside is limited.
          At this point, I do not see a resumption of the 2009 – 2018 bull market without these changes.
         
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 Economic Status: Late stage expansion with recession starting in late 2019. Bull markets hit peak 6 to 12 months ahead of recessions. Republicans were in White House in 9 of  the last 10 recessions. Their rosy projections ignore the likelihood of a recession within a year to 18 months. Housing and auto industries already in recession. The crunch can gain momentum ahead of schedule. U.S. fiscal crisis looms 2-3 years out.
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TECHNICAL OBSERVATIONS FOR “TRADERS” FAVORITES    

All the growth stocks listed below, except possibly Apple have registered turning patterns and can be expected to move higher over the near-to-intermediate term.  The following support levels must hold or the downtrend  that has persisted in recent months will be renewed.
      This whole exercise was to find a price level that would stop the carnage of the growth stocks.  If these support levels are broken, I will pick up on these stocks again.

FB: 126; AMZN: 1,470; NFLX: 250; GOOG:1,005; AAPL: 170.
Coverage will not continue unless these stocks become high risks again.
Apple is the one at greatest risk with 158 a possibility

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THE MARKET TODAY

          Expect the market to respond to rumors or expectations coming out of the G20 meeting.  The most important would be about TARIFFS.  Both the U.S. and China are feeling the pinch, but other than “words” what real action will occur.
         I expect Trump and Xi to agree to agree at some point in the future
      There is no reason for Trump to be in a hurry to yield – no election nearterm.  I can see the market rising in anticipation of progress, only to be disappointed by the end result.  This is a global stage for both Trump and Xi, neither will yield a lot.
          Obviously, the Street is not concerned about a constitutional crisis, or even with evidence that a recession looms in 2019.
           That is not good reason for investors to ignore the risks. Confidence drives stocks up, Lack of it drives them down.
           CNBC has reported a study by ImpactECON that Trump’s tariffs could cost American households  $2,400 in 2019 the form of higher prices, lower wages and lower investment returns. 
            Trump’s  trade  war is adversely impacting the corporate decision process, investment in plant, and equipment, supply chains and the bottom line. This is on top of rising interest rates and slowing global demand.
        EXPECT FIREWORKS any day from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. While the Street couldn’t give a hoot for most big news relating  to Mueller, it hasn’t been hit with really bad game-changing bad news,     
         General Motors (GM) stock jumped sharply yesterday when the company announced layoffs of 14,300 workers and  five plant closings.  Ahh duh !   GM’s stock rose on this news ?  A lot of  people and businesses, and industries rely on  the auto industry, why would bad news NOT suggest a problem for the  economy.

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      TECHNICAL OBSERVATION:
     
The market will start the day on a positive note with  a sharp advance at the open, at least as I write at 8:40,
      The Street hopes the Fed will make a statement that if the economy deteriorates further in coming months, it will not raise its benchmark (fed funds) rate four times in 2019. The Fed must be careful here. It can’t be intimidated by the White House.  If  the U.S. runs into an ugly recession, the Fed has few arrows in its quiver to respond. Interest rates are still low, it is trimming its balance sheet and our irresponsible Congress already gave corporate America an undeserved huge tax cut.  There is no life preserver big enough.
       Then too, the Street hopes for a breakthrough in Trump’s disastrous tariff tiff with China, it’s past the ouch point here and abroad.
        Words suck – what is needed is action and follow through, so a big run up here can only hold with tangible results. I was never impressed with G20 meets – a lot of egos huffing and puffing in an effort to look important on a global stage.
        But, it is what it is – a stage …….hold the bouquets     
        That said, this rally can run higher (DJIA: 25,400, S&P 500: 2,730, Nasdaq Comp.:7,271 if it gets a goose from the Fed or  on tariffs. Today’s resistance is noted below.  A risky rally to play. If nothing comes of the G20 meet, the market is back on the ropes bobbing and weaving, trying not to go down for an 8-count….or worse.
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SUPPORT “today: DJIA:24,701; S&P 500:2,706; Nasdaq Comp.:7,097
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:25,917; S&P 500:2,706:Nasdaq Comp.:7,117
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Technical Note: Frequently, there is what I refer to as a mid-afternoon counter move (2:30 – 3:00 where the market rallies or declines against the prevailing trend for the day.   This can be a fake out for investors thinking the market has turned (up or down).
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        A. Gary Shilling  just turned bearish in his November issue, headlining his issue of “INSUGHT“ with “Looming Recession ?”   I have tracked Shilling for decades. He nailed the 2007 – 2009 Great Recession Bear Market before anyone else. For him to suddenly turn negative is  a shocker.  He details his reasons in a 50-page analysis that  is overwhelming in detail and backed up with stats and graphs. No one in my experience has more economic/investing integrity than Shilling. 
 
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IMPORTANT NOTES:
>
Through September, this bull market is 116 months old, or 3.5 times longer than the average of the last  15  bull markets..
>Bear markets start 6 – 12 months ahead of the onset of a recession.  
>Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House
>The current economic expansion has lasted 123 months. That’s 65 months (2.1x) longer than the average expansion (58.4 months) going back to 1945.
>Of the 10 recessions since 1950,the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was 3.8 Months.
> Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months. 
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Bear Market Perspective

      Officially, we are not in a bear market until the S&P 500 declines 20% (2,352).  That would translate into DJIA 21,560 – “ouch” !
       That’s the minimum drop for a bear, but the last two bears crushed the S&P 500 by 57% (2007-2009) and 50% (2000-2002).  
My bear market target would be declines of
      DJIA: 18,500 (-31.4%)
      S&P 500 :  2,150 (-27.0%)
      Nasdaq Comp.:5,200 (-36.1%)
      But, depending on what new negatives hit the market when it gets down there, the bear market could reach much, much  lower levels.
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EARNINGS GROWTH MYTH:
       The Street is counting on earnings growth to reduce the overvaluation of equities.   Look again.

       A 20% increase in S&P 500 earnings this year will  be tough to beat next year.  The quarter versus year ago quarters in 2019 will make poor reading going up against the 2018 earnings, possibly earnings growth around  5%. But the Street is not factoring in the likelihood of a recession, which could mean negative growth.
       At times, politics has little impact on the big  picture. This time is different.

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BULLISH CASE
      A sharp increase in corporate earnings is what the bulls are relying on to power the market higher.
      Q2 earnings increased 25.0% over a year ago.
      Thomson Reuters projects Q3’s increase in earnings to  hit 20.5% and Q4 18.0%.
      However 2019 is a different story with earnings increases of Q1: +7.0%, Q2: +5.1%, Q3: +5.9% and Q4: +3.9%, that averages out to +5.4%.
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BEARISH CASE
RISING INTEREST RATES:
      >The Fed is persistently raising its benchmark interest rate (federal funds), as well as reducing its inflated balance sheet,  which will drive other rates higher, which will adversely impact interest sensitive industries.  . 
      >The 10-year treasury has been rising steadily and now stands at 3.09%.
      > The yield curve is flattening as short-term treasuries rise faster than long-tern governments just another warning sign of impending recession.
 OVERVALUED MARKET
      > The onset of bear markets have led the beginning of recessions by 8.5 months going back to 1956, so don’t look for a recession to signal a bear market. The longest lead time was 13 months (1968 – 1969) The “mode” (most frequent) is 12 months.
       > If companies are buying back their own stock at a record clip, pushing stocks higher, why then are insiders selling $8 of stock for every $1 of stock they buy ?
       .> Companies took advantage of low interest rates to load up on debt in recent years for acquisitions and to buy back their own stock. Excluding banks, the tally is $6.3trillion. The downside of this comes when these companies will need to refinance this debt at higher interest rates when it comes due.
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       > The S&P 500 price to sales ratio at 2.30 is 40% higher than in 2007 before the devastating bear market, and is even higher than in March 2000 before the dot-com bubble burst leading to a bear market. Both bear markets dropped 50%.
       > The Shiller P/E is 31.5  times earnings versus a mean of 16.6.  Shiller’s P/E is based on  inflation adjusted earnings over 10 years.
       > The Total Market Capitalization to GDP  stands at 147.3%, anything above 115% is  considered “overvalued.”
        > Thompson Reuters reports the S&P 500 sells at 18.1 times earnings and 16.2 times a year from now. All this versus a 10-year average of 14.3.
AGING BULL MARKET:
       > The bull market is now  nine years and six months old (115 months).  That’s 3.5 times the average of the last 15 bull markets.
AGING ECONOMIC EXPANSION:
      > Republicans – the recession party. Nine of last 10 recession have been with a Republican in the White House.  Odds favor Trump will make 10 for 11.
      > The current economic expansion has lasted 112 months. That’s 53 months (1.9 x) longer than the average expansion going back to 1945.  Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House.
      > Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months. 
      > Housing stocks have been in a prolonged slump since January. The iShares  home construction ETF has dropped 20.5%, as interest rates rise. Not only is it  major employer, its health affects other industries, especially furniture and appliances..
      > Household debt increased for the 16th straight quarter to 13.3 trillion, that’s 19%  above the post-financial-crisis low.
      > Jamie Dimon, CEO J.P. Morgan Chase,  thinks the benchmark  10-yearTreasury note , now 2.95%, should be 5%. The rate impacts lending for autos, mortgages and businesses.
      > Personal loans have soared   18% to  a record 120 billion, Personal savings as percent of disposable income at 3%, down from 9% in 2012.
      > Low interest rates have encouraged US companies to go on a debt binge, amassing  $6.3 trillion. With rates on the increase, refinancing will get more costly, according to S&P analyst, Andrew Chang, who points out that this amounts to $8 for every $1 in cash.
      > Recently, 1,100 economists WARN Trump is repeating biggest mistakes of Great Depression – tariffs, trade protectionism, according to conservative National Taxpayers’ Union.
      > Former Fed Chair, Ben Bernanke, says economy to fall off a cliff in 2020, thanks to the $1.5 trillion corporate and individual tax cut and $300 billion increase in spending.              
TRUMP’S TRADE WAR TANTRUM
      > Trump’s tariff tiff costing  US companies a bundle:  The damage extends to manufacturers, input suppliers, fishermen, and numerous businesses who are finding it more difficult to sell abroad.
      > Today’s businesses are complex, especially supply chains that can involve a thousand parts that make up a whole product, many of which are sourced from different countries, sometimes crossing back and forth across the same border a number of times.
      >  Trump is considering leaving World Trade Organization (WTO).
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IMPLODING:
      So far, the stock market has not wavered in face of the increasing likelihood, Trump and many present and former associates are in legal trouble.
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POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET

SUPREME STUPIDITY !
Trump vs. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts.  Rough guess here, but I would say Roberts thumps Trump every time they get in the ring.
Trump bashed  a decision by the Ninth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for ruling that the administration must consider claims of asylum regardless of where migrants cross the border, which rejected Trump’s wishes. He accused the court of bias blaming an  “Obama judge” for the ruling.  Roberts retaliated claiming the Court doesn’t have Obama, Bush, Clinton, or Trump judges.  …that an independent judiciary is something we should be thankful for.
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COWARDS ? Now is the time for the Republican-controlled Senate to do the American thing and protect the Special Counsel from  President Trump’s effort to undermine it.  This is no longer politics in general, this is about whether or not we are a nation of laws. Failure to do that, and I am convinced certain members of Congress are constitutional anarchists determined to destroy our republic.
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Rogue wave…. or monstrous blue wave ?
Real Americans are rising up to save our republic, and all the quality of life things worked and died for over the years.   After 2020, the right wing Republicans will be irrelevant, forced to climb back under the rock from which they emerged.
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What in the  Hell is wrong with us ?  These Central American peoples of all ages are willing to trek thousands of miles to attempt to enter America, and we are sending troops to back up border control to deny them legal entrance.  SHAME on our President, the selfish Republican party.  By their admirable efforts, they are demonstrating the kind of resolve we want in our workforce.
Christian ?   No, freaking way.  Our leaders are the epitome of  the  anti-Christ !  Hypocrites and un-American at heart ! 
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Trump has proposed a  5 percent budget cut for each Cabinet agency yesterday.
     Wait just a minute !
Didn’t Congress pass a $1.3trillion catchall spending bill earlier in the year after passing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in December, which gave corporations a 40% tax cut, and was skewed heavily in favor of big earners with the rest of the country getting a cut around 1%.
      According to the Treasury Dept. the federal deficit for FY Sept. 30 was $779 billion, up 17% from a year ago primarily due to the shortfall in revenues from corporations as a result of their huge tax cuts.
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Bath Iron Works (Maine) Gets $3.9 billion Navy Award 7 days before Sen. Collin’s “Yes” Vote for Kavanaugh
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      Reecntly, Bill Palmer, PalmerReports.com, gave his reason why Nikki Haley resigned from her post as United Nations Ambassador.

       The story was carried in more detail by the Business Insider.com, which points to her resignation one day after Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) requested the State Dept. investigate her acceptance of seven free flights aboard private jets  from three South Carolina business men.
      While she listed the flights on her 2017 financial disclosure, the information was incomplete according to CREW and did not qualify for an exemption.
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       Breaking: Concern that right wingers are set to rewrite the United States Constitution via an Article V Convention, or Amendments Convention, called by two-thirds of the state legislatures (34).  A three-quarter vote is required for an amendment to become part of the Constitution.   Reportedly, right wingers want to convert our system of government to a confederation of “supreme” states, essentially minimizing the present amount of federal control.
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Trump in hot water on tax evasion and the legitimacy of his inheritance ?
We’ll see !!
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     Since Deputy Atty Gen’l Rod Rosenstein would not fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller, assuming Trump first fired Rosenstein.
     On November 8, 2017, I noted Brian Benczkowski was nominated by President Trump in June [2017] to be U.S. Assistant Attorney General for the Criminal Division. Along party lines, he was confirmed by the Senate recently, raising the question would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein was fired and he  was appointed in his place. He said he would not recuse himself from  questions in the Mueller investigation.
     The big question mark here is that Benczkowski had represented Russia’s Alfa Bank at some point in the past and had no prosecutorial experience.  He had worked for Atty Gen’l Jeff Sessions and the Bush administration and was not opposed by Rosenstein.
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     Palmerreport.com believes Roger Stone will be the next person indicted/arrested by Special Counsel Robert Mueller.
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  As if Trump did not have enough problems, here comes Allen Weisselberg, long-time CFO of the Trump Organization and now a recipient of “immunity” from  the Attorney General of New York.
       This is especially significant, notes PalmerReports.com, since he is testifying about state level charges in addition to federal charges, which cannot be nullified by a Trump pardon.
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      NO ATTORNEY CLIENT PRIVILEGE: Palmerreport.com reminds readers that Trump has NO attorney-Client privilege with Ty Cobb who he hired on July 14, 2017 to help with the Russia scandal. To save personal funds, Trump put Cobb on the White House payroll, so Cobb is free to disclose any information Special Counsel Mueller wants him to.
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  I expect Attorney General Sessions to be fired or to resign any day now.  That puts Deputy Atty. Gen. Rod Rosenstein in jeopardy.  Will Brian Benszkowski be moved in the fill the void. Would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein were fired ?
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HEADS UP !   A majority vote in both the House and Senate can change the number of Justices on the Supreme Court. The number is fixed by statute, not by the Constitution. It has ranged between 6 and 10 since 1789.
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DAMN  IT !   I miss decency.
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“President” Trump has made 4,229 false (lies) and misleading claims since his inauguration. (Washington Post). …………………………………………………………………   
WOULD ANYONE WANT their spouse to lie repeatedly ?, their child ?, mother ?, father ?, minister ?, child’s teacher ?,  coach ?, employer ?.  IF NOT, why would they support President Trump who is on record with telling 4.5 lies per day,  4,200 lies since his inauguration on January 20 ?. 
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Trump boasts about the stock market in his first 31 months as President, but the S&P 500 appreciated 149% during President Obama’s first 31 months in office, 2 ½ times as it advanced under Trump, and Obama inherited the worst stock market/economic collapse since the 1930s, Trump inherited a strong stock market and economic recovery.
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The U.S. Chamber of Commerce currently estimates the impact of Trump tariffs on the following states stand to be: Louisiana ($5.2 bil.), Washington ($5.7 bil.), Texas ($1.4 bil.), S. Carolina ($2.6 bil.), Illinois ($2.1 bil.), California ($4.0 bil.), Kentucky ($917 mil.), Michigan (842 mil.), Ohio ($826 mil.).
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Orwellian: George Orwell’s 1984 wretched society was controlled by denial of the truth,  the dissemination of  misinformation, propaganda, and surveillance, i.e., Big Brother is watching.    “Just remember what you are seeing  and what you are reading is not what’s happening.” Trump  told the VFW July 24
“The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears…” George Orwell’s  dystopian novel – “1984”  published in 1949.
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A recent Gallup poll shows  how  people polled  would vote if the election were held today
Democrats      30%
Republicans   26%
Independents 40%

The key here is twofold. The Democrats must get their vote out, which may be difficult in face of Republican voter suppression. Then too, they need to get a lot  of the Independent vote, which will be helped as Americans see the Trump administration gut treasured institutions, regulations designed to ensure a better environment in the future, healthcare, and undermine time-tested, valued global alliances while cultivating the favor of enemies.
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Special Counsel Robert Mueller  must comply with regulations, rules, procedures, and policies of the Department of Justice as set forth in 28 CFR 600. He can only be removed for misconduct, dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, or other good cause, including violation of the Department’s policy.
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What Trump and his base have in common: They both deplore the same people – people of color, the handicapped, liberals, foreigners.
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VOTES FLIPPED for TRUMP  in Key States in 2016
      Daily Kos’ Aldous Pennyfarthing (Pen name for Tom Breuer)  gave reasons in Alternet.org, July 27, why he thinks the Russians [or someone] flipped votes for Trump in 2016.
      The basis for this conclusion was comparing exit polls with actual outcome in North Carolina Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
 Pennsylvania: Exit polls Clinton 50.5 – Trump 46.1.  Result: Clinton 46.1 –   Trump 48.8.
Wisconsin: Exit poll Clinton 48.2 – Trump 44.3  Result: Clinton 47.6 – Trump 48.8.
North Carolina: Exit poll Clinton  48.6 – Trump 46.5. Result: Clinton 46.1 – Trump 49.9.
      An FOI suit by Bradley Moss (cybersecurity lawyer) brought against the government  revealed Russians hacked inside voting systems in seven big states.
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Wake up out there. These aren’t conservative Republicans, they are anarchists, extremists  who have wrested control of the Republican party over the last 20 years and are intent on a party rule with no checks and balances.  This is  a bloodless coup.
If  they can lock up control of both Houses, the Presidency, Supreme Court and strategic lower court appointments, and a major news media broadcaster, survival of our republic will depend on whose side the military and police forces take.
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 Sinclair Broadcast Group  (BEWARE !)   
      Sinclair Broadcast Group is using its clout as owner of  193 television stations in 80 markets as a lever to manipulate local station viewers’ minds pitching it’s right wing propaganda. Viewers tend to trust local stations programing over national networks.  A July 16, 2018 FCC decision denied Sinclair’s acquisition of the Tribune Broadcast Group, which would have expanded its reach into New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago markets
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 Sinclair Bank (no relation to the broadcast  group) has surfaced as a lender to Michael Cohen, Jared Kushner, his father and Trump.  Ivanka Trump no longer on board. 
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        Treason is defined by Article 3, section 3: Treason, as levying war against the U.S., or in adhering to its enemy, namely aid and comfort, also defined as any act that deliberately strengthens or tends to strengthen enemies of the U.S. or that weakens the power of the U.S. to resist and attack such enemies.
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TRUMP’S BASE:  Some voted for Trump because they always vote Republican. Then there are those whose opinions are based on emotional disorders, those who will never accept the truth no matter what (Confirmation Bias); those who accept bad behavior as the norm (Deviancy Down); and those who while stupid, ill informed who actually believe they are highly intelligent, competent (Dunning Krueger). These people don’t have enough knowledge to know they don’t have enough knowledge, i.e.,too dumb to know they are dumb.(alternet.com 7/23/18)
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July 19, 2018: Republicans refuse to renew election security funding over Russian hacking – Democrats livid, as all of us should be. 
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The Dept. of Justice charged a Russian national, Mariia Butina, of illegally trying to influence American politics using the NRA, religious organizations  as a means of gaining backchannel access to the highest levels of the Republican Party.  Mother Jones says  Butina acted as a covert Russian agent, an unregistered foreign agent.
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      Since Deputy Atty Gen’l Rod Rosenstein would not fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller,   assuming Trump first fired Rosenstein.
     On November 8, I noted Brian Benczkowski was nominated by President Trump in June [2017] to be U.S. Assistant Attorney General for the Criminal Division. Along party lines, he was confirmed by the Senate recently, raising the question would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein was fired and he  was appointed in his place. He said he would not recuse himself from  questions in the Mueller investigation.
     The big question mark here is that Benczkowski had represented Russia’s Alfa Bank at some point in the past and had no prosecutorial experience.  He had worked for Atty Gen’l Jeff Sessions and the Bush administration and was not opposed by Rosenstein.

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A “MALEVOLENT FOOL” – Lt. Col. , Ret’d, Ralph Peters, ex-Fox analyst referring to Trump.   Malevolent: evil, harmful, injurious.
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Un-American ! Trump claims writers of U.S. Constitution treated Him unfairly, adding we have the worst constitution writers in the world…Russia has better constitution writers than we do, says Trump . “I talked with Putin, and he said their constitution never gives him problems.” Andy Borowitz, (The Borowitz Report).
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      WE DON”T WANT TO GO THERE !  The Trump administration is taking the United States straight to a place none of us wants to be – civil unrest,  an extended recession, a fiscal crisis where we can’t pay our bills, ergo the need to slash healthcare, safety net programs, a host of programs that have improved our quality of life.
      This administration’s actions on trade (tariffs, TPP), the intentional divisiveness of America along racial lines, and abandonment of our long-time allies have opened the door for China to dominate the world, economically and militarily.  That’s Un-American.  This has to be stopped.
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Republican strategist, Steve Schmidt, leaves Republican Party after 29 years, saying the party is “corrupt, indecent and immoral,” and with a few exceptions  elected  Republicans are “feckless cowards who disgrace and dishonor the legacies of the party’s greatest leaders.” Others quitting Republican Party: George Will, “Morning” Joe Scarborough. To date, 35 senior Trump advisers have left.
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President Donald Trump is NOT pro-business, he’s pro-Trump
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TRUMP EXIT STRATEGY: The most important thing for King Donald is his image.  Currently he is scrambling to initiate as many perceived accomplishments as possible (taxes, anti-immigrant, anti-allies, deregulation, North Korea, Iran, ISIS, unemployment).
      This way, if he is impeached, defeated in 2020, or forced to resign, he can claim to have been the greatest president of all-time – he’ll tweet it relentlessly, deviancy-downed Americans will believe it and every network in the country, whores that they are, (including MSNBC and CNN) will scramble to cover his tweets.  IMHO: he won’t risk losing in 2020, just not run – declare he has accomplished his mission and walk away.
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POSSIBLE ! That the blue wave won’t happen in November.  Why? The American voter is still zoned out about what is happening – too busy with other stuff, not capable of  objectively analyzing issues accurately without bias.
     The result: The extremist Republicans and their president will run the economy, a constructive foreign relations policy, and America’s quality of life into the ground.  In order to get the American voter’s attention, we have to hit bottom first.
      That means an extended recession, a fiscal crisis (unable to pay bills), a 65% drop in the stock market and,  national unrest greater than that which the Vietnam War attracted.
       We are witnessing the unfolding of  the biggest scandal in our country’s history, including illegal financial transactions, vote tampering and  untethered collusion and obstruction of  justice at the highest level.  This may take years to unravel.
      Again, I say “possible,” not probable..  Probable would be all that but not as severe.
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Corporations got a 40% tax cut, John and Jane Q get a 1.2% – 1.8% cut, even so, Trump plans to introduce a “rescission package” to cut $15 billion in already approved spending on the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation program, as well as 30 other programs. The  U.S. House will likely approve his  rescission  package, the Senate may not.
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According to Bloomberg.com, 1,100 economists warn that Trump is repeating one of the biggest mistakes of the Great Depression – tariffs and trade protectionism. The warning came in a letter from the conservative-leaning National Taxpayers Union.
      China loves it !  Trump opened the door, China entered, capitalizing on Trump’s regressive “America First” mantra, with its far reaching Belt and Road outreach with investments encompassing infrastructure, education, construction materials, rail and hi-way, auto, real estate, power grid and iron and steel investments to 68 countries, 65% of the world’s population and 40% of global GDP.
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      Kim took Trump’s war with North Korea option off the table, so looks like Trump now has his sights set on IRAN – to please his base, of course, in time for the mid-terms, of course
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North Korea give up nuclear weapons ?  Never !  Kim wants a global stage, so does Trump, who will not risk being embarrassed by the little tyrant. Trump will bail.  He needs a villain to trash to please his base. Kim has what he wants.  I think Trump has been played like a harp. 
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Impeachment of Trump unlikely with this Republican House. Trump has surrounded himself with newly appointed Cabinet members, so Section 4 of the 25th amendment is not a reality.   What’s left ?  A deal with Mueller for his RESIGNATION ?
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Must Read: “Will Christian Nationalism Drive Trump’s Base to the Polls in November ?”  Truthout April 15, Bill Berkowitz. This explains why his base of Christians votes for an immoral person, one whose behavior is the antithesis of the teachings of Christ.
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Will Trump  Fire Mueller

      Trump can’t fire Mueller directly, it must be done by the Department of Justice.  Trump would have to find someone to do it.  Nixon did it in 1973 when he had to work through two attorney generals until  his solicitor general, Robert Bork fired Special Prosecutor Archibald Cox. 
      Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein isn’t going to do it, so Trump must find someone from DOJ , or someone outside who has already been confirmed by the Senate who will do it.         Philip Bump, Washington Post (WAPO) April 10, did a great job outlining possibilities in, “Why Trump can’t fire Mueller – at least not directly.”  I can only touch on a few of his points here.
       In his article, Georgetown University’s professor Paul Butler raises the interesting point that  firing Mueller may not be necessary if  Rosenstein is replaced by someone hostile to the Special Counsel’s investigation.  He would simply force a stall with lots of demands, even leak information to the White House.   
       REASONS NEEDED TO FIRE MUELLER: Trump would have to have  good reason to fire Mueller.  Grounds must be, misconduct, dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, or other good cause, including violation of policies of the Department of Justice, and failure to follow Justice Departments guidelines and violation of applicable canons of ethics.
       CAN TRUMP RESCIND  SPECIAL COUNSEL REGULATION ?  Yes, it’s possible but many legal hurdles  would make it difficult and possibly so time consuming as to make the action worthless. There is no clear cut answer. This would be decided in court, the legal ramifications just very complex.
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FISCAL CRISIS LOOMS IN FUTURE:  Headlines:“Federal debt primed to explode”….”U.S. Deficit to Surpass $1 Trillion Two Years Ahead of Estimates”….”This Year’s budget deficit to hit $804 B after tax cuts and spending hikes”….
       This is all a Republican scheme to justify massive spending cuts to social, health, educational  and safety net programs. It is called “Starving the Beast,” and will lead to debilitating and prolonged recession/bear market, increased crime, rioting and civil unrest.  Republicans set the stage with massive, unnecessary tax cuts and a big budget spend (see below: “Corporate Tax Cut Irresponsible”)
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Cambridge Analytica (now in bankruptcy) is center stage again. Palmer.com  reports  someone behind the scenes is trying to block  Britain’s  Channel 4 News from airing an expose  into Cambridge’s role in using  Facebook (FB) to influence voters to vote for Trump and not Clinton.  On Friday,  Facebook  banned Cambridge’s access.  Palmer speculates the Mercers are behind the  attempt to prevent Channel 4’s expose.  I was on  Cambridge’s case back on June 22, 2017,  noting that billionaire Robert Mercer was connected to Cambridge through Canada’s Aggregate IQ through an intellectual property agreement and worked to influence voting  in the Brexit referendum.  Aggregate is a data mining company.  While Aggregate denies any connection,  the story won’t go away. Palmer sees a connection between Cambridge and John Bolton’s SUPER PAC.  Palmer notes that UK Parliament is investigating  the connection between Cambridge and Brexit and documents referred to by Cambridge whistleblower Christopher Wylie reveal  the firm gave stolen Facebook  user data to Bolton’s PAC  (receiving stolen goods ?), though it is not known how Bolton used the data if his PAC even received it.  (See below: Mercer on the run ?) …………………………………………….
Remember the name Felix Sater, former business associate of Trump, convicted  Russian mafia money laundering figure, and key FBI informant.
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Another name to watch is Ted Malloch who Palmer.com reports was served a subpoena relating to the Trump/Russia probe.  Malloch is a U. S. citizen living in London with close tire to Roger Stone, Brexit leader Nigel Farage and the Trump campaign.  As noted above in Cambridge Analytica, there is a connection to parties involved in Brexit and Trump’s campaign.
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George Nader  has long-standing ties in the Mid-East and Washington over many years.  What appears to be important here is he is cooperating with the Mueller probe not as a wrongdoer, but as a source of information.  He has had ties with the Trump administration through Steve Bannon  and reportedly attended a meeting in the Seychelles Islands January 11, 2017 along with Blackwater founder and former Trump associate, Eric Prince, and Kirill Dmitriev head of a U.S. sanctioned investment firm with close ties to Putin.  Reportedly Nader represented United Arab Emirates’ Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan.
      I referred to the Seychilles meeting on April 5, 2017 noting  the Washington Post reported the meeting was intended to encourage Russia to curtail support for Iran and Syria (Trump wish list) in exchange for lifting U.S. sanctions on Russia.
We’ll see.
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“Protecting guns and profits have become more important than protecting the lives of young people” Henry A. Giroux, Truthout ,  March 4.
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Why are so many Americans beholden to guns ? It could be their sense of security was rocked by 9/11 plus the Great Recession/Bear Market.  Then it could be racial, a fear that people of different colors will eventually outnumber them, prompting  the need (in their paranoid minds) to stage a forceful change in governance (revolution).  This makes little sense, but from their point of  simplemindedness, they feel more secure with a dozen guns and cases of ammunition in house just in case.
     What these whackos don’t understand is they can’t use their guns outside of their homes for fear of injuring or killing an innocent person which not only sends them to jail, but opens them up to a lawsuit where they lose their stock portfolio, car, house and all those “blankies” that  go bang.  ………………………………………

 A quasi-fascist state would give Trump the untethered power he craves.
Read: The Ghost of Fascism in the Age of Trump
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/43529-the-ghost-of-fascism-in-the-age-of-trump
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U.S. Ranking globally and domestically is plunging under Trump
      Global approval of U.S. leadership from 134 countries has plunged to 30% from 48% in just a year.  Clearly, Trump isn’t making America Great Again in the eyes of all other countries.  The downside of this is we need the support of those countries.  Our nationalistic policies are opening doors throughout the world for China. A Gallup poll shows Germany replacing the U.S. as the top-rated power in the world.
      Under Trump, the United States has dropped to 11th place in the Bloomberg Innovation Index, which in addition  to  R&D spending, includes post secondary, or tertiary, education-efficiency category, which includes the share of new science and engineering graduates. Value-added manufacturing also dropped.  South Korea ranked first, followed by Sweden, Singapore, Germany, Switzerland, Japan, Finland, Denmark, France, Israel.
       Also under Trump, Americans’ trust in institutions (government, companies and the  media) has suffered the greatest loss on record according to a poll conducted by Edelman New York. The poll, including 33,000 “informed” individuals showed the U.S. dropping to 43 out of a possible 100, down 23 points in a year.  He is a human wrecking ball.
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CORPORATE TAX CUT IRRESPONSIBLE
“It's pure fantasy to think that the tax bill will lead to significantly higher wages and growth, as Republicans have promised,” Bloomberg continued. Had Congress actually listened to executives, or economists who study these issues carefully, it might have realized that. The tax bill is an economically indefensible blunder that will harm our future” –   Michael Bloomberg – billionaire business man former mayor NYC

      I don’t doubt some corporations need, and deserve a tax cut, but to reduce the rate from 35% to 21% is inexcusable, reckless, unjustifiable, and outright subversive to the best interests of America.
      Corporate income taxes comprise 9% of federal government receipts. If corporate taxes are slashed by 40% (from 35% to 21%), the government’s receipts from corporations are reduced by 3.6% from 9%.
      Individual income tax payments comprise 47% of  federal government receipts. At this point, I have no idea how much of an impact  Congress’ tax cuts will have on this source of federal revenues, but it stands to be significant.
      The Republican administration expects economic growth will be triggered by a sudden change in heart by corporations to abandon stock buybacks and the repatriation of billions stashed abroad to plug the big hole left in federal receipts by tax cuts with a surge in hiring and capital expenditures.
      That assumption is flawed. For one, why would a corporation  go on a hiring and cap-ex spending spree  with an economic expansion that  is 8-1/2 years old, 3 years longer (73%) than the average over 65 years (1945 – 2009).
      For another, are they naïve enough to assume there will be no recessions within the next 10 years ?
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Mercer on the run ?  Bannon and Breitbart bankroller, Robert Mercer is rapidly severing financial ties to Breitbart News and support of Steve Bannon and alt-right’s Milo Yiannopoulos. Mercer was a major supporter of Sen. Ted Cruz’s effort to gain the Republican nomination last year, but switched his allegiance to Trump when he won the nomination.
      In my March 21 post, I wrote, “Years from now, I suspect Mercer will be relaxing at his Long Island waterfront retreat, Owl’s Nest, or on his 200-foot yacht, Sea Owl, and look back over his illustrious career tarnished  by one regret – he backed the biggest con job in our nation’s history.”
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Red states In need of Fed government help the most
Six states (Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Utah, Wisconsin),  are planning to require poverty stricken people on Medicaid  to get jobs  or lose the coverage. Maine, Utah and Wisconsin want to put a time limit on coverage, the latter wants to drug-test people. Excluded: People with long-tern disabilities, the elderly, and children.  Isn’t it bad enough these people are in poverty ? 
      Vox Media reports that 9.8 million Medicaid recipients  don’t have jobs  due to: Illness/disabled (35%), retired (8%), taking care of home or family (28%), going to school (18%), cannot find work (8%). The remaining 60.2 million Americans on Medicaid work full-time of part-time.  I’m not sure what’s the Republican beef here.
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TRUMP’S PARDON POWER
     The President has the power to grant conditional pardons; to commute sentences; remit fines and forfeitures; and grant amnesty. This power can be exercised at any time after the offense has been committed, before conviction of after. Pardons cannot be limited by or controlled by legislative action (US legal.com)
Expect Trump to attempt to pardon anyone he wants, including himself. It’s a way out of facing responsibility very much like dodging the draft. Like when he justified his numerous bankruptcies, saying he only used U.S. laws to his advantage.  Well, “pardons” are his prerogative, in many, not all cases. He would take advantage of whatever loophole to avoid consequences, sort of like dodging the draft, or did I already say that ?
     The President cannot pardon people for “state” crimes, and it is doubtful he can pardon himself.
      Can the Mueller investigation survive Mueller’s firing ?
Slate.com’s July 21 article, “Trump can’t Escape the States,” says “YES.”
1-A state [NY] could hire Mueller and team.
2-State attorneys general could use their quo warranto power to investigate Trump’s organization for fraud and money laundering from Russian sources.
3-A Congressional committee (Senate Intelligence Committee) could hire Mueller or create a Joint select Committee.
4-Congress could pass a new veto-proof independent counsel statute.
FINALLY: If Trump resigns and Pence takes over, Pence could pardon Trump, as Ford did Nixon.
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THE GREAT AMERICAN EXPERIMENT UNDER SEIGE:  Not since the Civil War has the spirit and future of our nation been at such great risk, from within.  This  administration, Congress and U.S. Supreme Court is surgically dismembering  efforts over many years to ensure the safety  and well being of “all” Americans.
     The sooner, Americans recognize these are not genuine Republican conservatives, but extremists determined dismantle that which has been achieved over the years and replace it with “their” brand  of a  quasi-fascist state.  Ben Franklin was right when asked what kind of government  the Founding Fathers had given us.  “A Republic, if you can keep it,” was his response.
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TRUMP looking for a “Get Out Of Jail Free Card if the Feds close in?”
    Why not, he dodged military service with 5 deferments  during the Vietnam era (1964 – 1970).
     Reportedly, he has asked advisers about his power to pardon family members and himself  relating to Mueller’s investigation.
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WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE INVESTIGATION IS COMPLETED ? If the Special Counselor  concludes it is “necessary and appropriate” he is authorized to prosecute federal crimes arising out of the investigation, which he does after submitting a report to the attorney general explaining his reasons.

REASONS NEEDED TO FIRE MUELLER:  Misconduct,  dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, good cause (??), violation of Department policies.
WOULD MUELLER BE REPLACED ? Unclear. If the Democrats controlled Congress they could appoint another Special Counselor
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  “Connect the Dots.” This investigation is open-ended. These are people were part of the Trump team, or in a position to know information relating to activities before or after the 2016 election, though  not necessarily in any way guilty of any wrongdoing.
       Nigel Farage – President Trump- Hope Hicks, Jeffrey Sessions – Robert Mercer – Cambridge Analytics – Bannon- Carter Page – Kushner (Jared and Ivanka) – Eric Prince – Donald, Jr.  and Eric Trump – Wilbur Ross –  Michael Cohen – Ezra Cohen Watnick – Michael T. Flynn – Michael G. Flynn ( son)  – JD Gordon  –  Christopher Steele – Michael Caputo -Breitbart News – Roger Stone – Julian Assange – Paul Manafort – Rick Gates – Jill Stein – Sam Clovis –  Kellyanne and George Conway –Dana Rohrabacher – Bill Browder – Peter W. Smith (deceased: suicide), Paul Behrends – Brad Parscale – Sam Nunberg – Dan Scavino – Keith Schiller –  Alex Van Der waan – Ted Malloch -Boris Epshteyn, Ike Kaveladze, and  Russia’s alfa Group – Felix Sater – Rob Goldstone – alfa Group – Emin Agalarov – Sergey Gorkov –  Sergey Kislyak, ambassador to the U.S., Natalia Veselnitskaya, Oleg Deripaska all connect directly or indirectly to the Trump/Russia investigation and some have a connection to Brexit, as well.
      According to the “Observer,” Mercer’s Cambridge Analytica was connected with Canada’s AggregateIQ through an intellectual property agreement and worked together on the Brexit referendum. Aggregate is also a data mining company. While Mercer was a big supporter of Trump, there is no known connection between AggregateIQ and Trump’s campaign staff.
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 REMOVING TRUMP FROM  OFFICE
Can Section 4 of the 25th Amendment, U.S. Constitution – Remove Trump ?
      It’s a stretch.  The key for his removal is ”that he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.”  Section 4 mentions nothing  that he is unfit, delusional, unbalanced, crazy,  impulsive, irrational, impaired, sociopathic, psychopathic, narcissistic.
      That would be the threshold that would have to be crossed if Trump is removed from office via Section 4 of the 25th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. There is no precedent

      It isn’t just Democrats, liberals, moderates and reasonable people who find Trump caustic, and dangerous, conservatives like George Will, David Brooks and Ross Douthart are also urging his removal.
      First, there are four ways to get rid of Trump – death, resignation, impeachment and Section 4 of the 25th Amendment.
      The procedure employing the 25th Amendment requires the Vice President and the majority of the cabinet of 15 (8) to vote to remove the president. They would submit their declaration in writing to the President pro tempore ( Sen. Orrin Hatch) and Speaker of the House (Paul Ryan) that the president is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, and the Vice President will immediately assume to office as acting president.
      However, the president may contend the move by submitting his own letter to the President pro tempore and Speaker of the House, that he believes he is capable of performing his duties, in which case he will resume the office of presidency.
       The Vice President and Cabinet members may then resubmit their declaration at which point Congress would vote within 48 hours if in session. If not, Congress  will act within 21 days where a two-thirds vote would be required to remove  him.  
        However, as “Business Insider.com” noted on Jan. 9, 2018, Trump could simply fire the Cabinet members who voted to oust him from office.
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IMPEACHMENT
      A  Consult/Politico poll shows 43% of Americans want Congress to begin procedures for the impeachment of President Trump.
      The U.S. Constitution  enables Congress to remove a president for “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.” Initially, the House votes on one or more articles of impeachment- if a majority vote is reached, he is impeached.  BUT, impeachment only means indictment. The Senate holds a trial overseen by the chief justice and Supreme Court. A group of House members serve as prosecutors and the Senate as jurors. If two-thirds of the senators find the president guilty, he is removed from office and the vice president takes over.
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Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com
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George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

v

Yesterday’s Rally Absolutely Must Follow Through, or…

INVESTORS first read.com – Daily edge before the open           
DJIA: 24,640
S&P 500:2,673
Nasdaq Com.:7,081
Russell 2000: 1,515
Tuesday, November 27,  2018  9:11 a.m.

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gbifr79@gmail.com

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This volatility is EXACTLY what I meant when on December 27, 2017, I Warned:
“2018: The Wildest One in Years.” 
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“No one is bearish, and that’s BEARISH…Odds favor a 12%-18% correction” – Jan. 22, 2018: DJIA:26,214. 
(A 14-day 12.2% correction started 4 days later.)
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Trump – a human wrecking ball (1/3/17)…….and a pathological liar !
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What’s so Christian about favoring the rich over the poor ?
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“Accuse the other side of that which you are guilty.”
                                         Joseph Goebbels, Nazi propaganda minister.
Damn it ! I miss decency
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WARNING ! When the market gets hammered, expect the Trump administration and Wall Streeters to crank out anything that resembles good news that could stop the carnage.  Ignore them. This is often the trigger for bear market rallies that suck investors in before the next move down.
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Market Status: 
      Yesterday’s sharp rebound traced out an upward  turning pattern that can run  a bit higher.  I do not see this move changing the market to bullish from bearish, though  it may become mired in a neutral status until January. 
      There are just too many negatives surfacing.  While the Street could care less about what happens in Washington, a constitutional crisis will raise the level of uncertainty more than it is now and impact confidence in the rule of law, the foundation of our government.
      CNBC has reported a study by ImpactECON that Trump’s tariffs could cost American households  $2,400 in 2019 the form of higher prices, lower wages and lower investment returns. 
      Trump’s trade  war is adversely impacting the corporate decision process, investment in plant, and equipment, supply chains and the bottom line. This is on top of rising interest rates and slowing global demand.
      At some point, the Street will snap out of its denial, tweak their “buy-bias” algorithms and  cut back on new buys and accelerate profit-taking.
      That would be the start of another leg down.
       When ?   January is a good bet.
       What could slow the slide ?
        The Fed could ease back from its policy of  raising rates, and good news could break on tariffs.  Those would be damage control.

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 Economic Status: Late stage expansion with recession starting in late 2019. Bull markets hit peak 6 to 12 months ahead of recessions. Republicans were in White House in 9 of  the last 10 recessions. Their rosy projections ignore the likelihood of a recession within a year to 18 months. Housing and auto industries already in recession. The crunch can gain momentum ahead of schedule. U.S. fiscal crisis looms 2-3 years out.
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TECHNICAL OBSERVATIONS FOR “TRADERS” FAVORITES    
All the growth stocks listed below, except possibly Apple have registered turning patterns and can be expected to move higher over the near-to-intermediate term.  The following support levels must hold or the downtrend  that has persisted in recent months will be renewed.
      This whole exercise was to find a price level that would stop the carnage of the growth stocks.  If these support levels are broken, I will pick up on these stocks again.

FB: 126; AMZN: 1,470; NFLX: 250; GOOG:1,005; AAPL: 170.
Coverage will not continue unless these stocks become high risks again.
Apple is the one at greatest risk with 158 a possibility

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THE MARKET TODAY

       Yesterday’s rebound  headed off further erosion in the October/November plunge that lopped off 11% from the DJAI and S&P 500, 14% from the Nasdaq Comp.
        These rallies occur frequently in major market declines. The key is momentum, i.e. can the rise in prices gain traction, or will they run out of steam.
       The Street still has to deal with so many mounting serious negatives.
       The biggie is the Fed. If they back off on their interest rate policy, the bulls have a chance to avoid utter carnage until later.
        Expect mixed  messages out of the Group 20 meeting.  Thursday’s market may get a bump in stock prices if the Street  likes what it sees in  the Fed minutes from last months FOMC meeting.
        EXPECT FIREWORKS any day from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. While the Street couldn’t give a hoot for most big news relating  to Mueller, it hasn’t been hit with really bad game-changing bad news,     
         General Motors (GM) stock jumped sharply yesterday when the company announced layoffs of 14,300 workers and  five plant closings.  Ahh duh !   GM’s stock rose on this news ?  A lot of  people and businesses, and industries rely on  the auto industry, why would bad news NOT suggest a problem for the  economy.

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      TECHNICAL OBSERVATION:
       If this rebound follows through for several days and is not in anticipation of a Fed  policy change, or major progress on tariffs, it will be a ruthless fake-out followed by a nasty plunge to new lows.
       If the Street was so sure of its timing, it would be stampeding to buy at the open.  Let’s give them until 10 o’clock.  All that assuming no HUGE news out of the Fed or U.S/China.
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SUPPORT “today: DJIA:24,486; S&P 500:2,647 ; Nasdaq Comp.:6,987.
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:24,837; S&P 500:2,687:Nasdaq Comp.:7,127
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Technical Note: Frequently, there is what I refer to as a mid-afternoon counter move (2:30 – 3:00 where the market rallies or declines against the prevailing trend for the day.   This can be a fake out for investors thinking the market has turned (up or down).
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        A. Gary Shilling  just turned bearish in his November issue, headlining his issue of “INSUGHT“ with “Looming Recession ?”   I have tracked Shilling for decades. He nailed the 2007 – 2009 Great Recession Bear Market before anyone else. For him to suddenly turn negative is  a shocker.  He details his reasons in a 50-page analysis that  is overwhelming in detail and backed up with stats and graphs. No one in my experience has more economic/investing integrity than Shilling. 
 
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IMPORTANT NOTES:
>
Through September, this bull market is 116 months old, or 3.5 times longer than the average of the last  15  bull markets..
>Bear markets start 6 – 12 months ahead of the onset of a recession.  
>Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House
>The current economic expansion has lasted 123 months. That’s 65 months (2.1x) longer than the average expansion (58.4 months) going back to 1945.
>Of the 10 recessions since 1950,the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was 3.8 Months.
> Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months. 
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Bear Market Perspective

      Officially, we are not in a bear market until the S&P 500 declines 20% (2,352).  That would translate into DJIA 21,560 – “ouch” !
       That’s the minimum drop for a bear, but the last two bears crushed the S&P 500 by 57% (2007-2009) and 50% (2000-2002).  
My bear market target would be declines of
      DJIA: 18,500 (-31.4%)
      S&P 500 :  2,150 (-27.0%)
      Nasdaq Comp.:5,200 (-36.1%)
      But, depending on what new negatives hit the market when it gets down there, the bear market could reach much, much  lower levels.
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EARNINGS GROWTH MYTH:
       The Street is counting on earnings growth to reduce the overvaluation of equities.   Look again.

       A 20% increase in S&P 500 earnings this year will  be tough to beat next year.  The quarter versus year ago quarters in 2019 will make poor reading going up against the 2018 earnings, possibly earnings growth around  5%. But the Street is not factoring in the likelihood of a recession, which could mean negative growth.
       At times, politics has little impact on the big  picture. This time is different.

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BULLISH CASE
      A sharp increase in corporate earnings is what the bulls are relying on to power the market higher.
      Q2 earnings increased 25.0% over a year ago.
      Thomson Reuters projects Q3’s increase in earnings to  hit 20.5% and Q4 18.0%.
      However 2019 is a different story with earnings increases of Q1: +7.0%, Q2: +5.1%, Q3: +5.9% and Q4: +3.9%, that averages out to +5.4%.
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BEARISH CASE
RISING INTEREST RATES:
      >The Fed is persistently raising its benchmark interest rate (federal funds), as well as reducing its inflated balance sheet,  which will drive other rates higher, which will adversely impact interest sensitive industries.  . 
      >The 10-year treasury has been rising steadily and now stands at 3.09%.
      > The yield curve is flattening as short-term treasuries rise faster than long-tern governments just another warning sign of impending recession.
 OVERVALUED MARKET
      > The onset of bear markets have led the beginning of recessions by 8.5 months going back to 1956, so don’t look for a recession to signal a bear market. The longest lead time was 13 months (1968 – 1969) The “mode” (most frequent) is 12 months.
       > If companies are buying back their own stock at a record clip, pushing stocks higher, why then are insiders selling $8 of stock for every $1 of stock they buy ?
       .> Companies took advantage of low interest rates to load up on debt in recent years for acquisitions and to buy back their own stock. Excluding banks, the tally is $6.3trillion. The downside of this comes when these companies will need to refinance this debt at higher interest rates when it comes due.
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       > The S&P 500 price to sales ratio at 2.30 is 40% higher than in 2007 before the devastating bear market, and is even higher than in March 2000 before the dot-com bubble burst leading to a bear market. Both bear markets dropped 50%.
       > The Shiller P/E is 31.5  times earnings versus a mean of 16.6.  Shiller’s P/E is based on  inflation adjusted earnings over 10 years.
       > The Total Market Capitalization to GDP  stands at 147.3%, anything above 115% is  considered “overvalued.”
        > Thompson Reuters reports the S&P 500 sells at 18.1 times earnings and 16.2 times a year from now. All this versus a 10-year average of 14.3.
AGING BULL MARKET:
       > The bull market is now  nine years and six months old (115 months).  That’s 3.5 times the average of the last 15 bull markets.
AGING ECONOMIC EXPANSION:
      > Republicans – the recession party. Nine of last 10 recession have been with a Republican in the White House.  Odds favor Trump will make 10 for 11.
      > The current economic expansion has lasted 112 months. That’s 53 months (1.9 x) longer than the average expansion going back to 1945.  Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House.
      > Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months. 
      > Housing stocks have been in a prolonged slump since January. The iShares  home construction ETF has dropped 20.5%, as interest rates rise. Not only is it  major employer, its health affects other industries, especially furniture and appliances..
      > Household debt increased for the 16th straight quarter to 13.3 trillion, that’s 19%  above the post-financial-crisis low.
      > Jamie Dimon, CEO J.P. Morgan Chase,  thinks the benchmark  10-yearTreasury note , now 2.95%, should be 5%. The rate impacts lending for autos, mortgages and businesses.
      > Personal loans have soared   18% to  a record 120 billion, Personal savings as percent of disposable income at 3%, down from 9% in 2012.
      > Low interest rates have encouraged US companies to go on a debt binge, amassing  $6.3 trillion. With rates on the increase, refinancing will get more costly, according to S&P analyst, Andrew Chang, who points out that this amounts to $8 for every $1 in cash.
      > Recently, 1,100 economists WARN Trump is repeating biggest mistakes of Great Depression – tariffs, trade protectionism, according to conservative National Taxpayers’ Union.
      > Former Fed Chair, Ben Bernanke, says economy to fall off a cliff in 2020, thanks to the $1.5 trillion corporate and individual tax cut and $300 billion increase in spending.              
TRUMP’S TRADE WAR TANTRUM
      > Trump’s tariff tiff costing  US companies a bundle:  The damage extends to manufacturers, input suppliers, fishermen, and numerous businesses who are finding it more difficult to sell abroad.
      > Today’s businesses are complex, especially supply chains that can involve a thousand parts that make up a whole product, many of which are sourced from different countries, sometimes crossing back and forth across the same border a number of times.
      >  Trump is considering leaving World Trade Organization (WTO).
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IMPLODING:
      So far, the stock market has not wavered in face of the increasing likelihood, Trump and many present and former associates are in legal trouble.
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POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET

SUPREME STUPIDITY !
Trump vs. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts.  Rough guess here, but I would say Roberts thumps Trump every time they get in the ring.
Trump bashed  a decision by the Ninth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for ruling that the administration must consider claims of asylum regardless of where migrants cross the border, which rejected Trump’s wishes. He accused the court of bias blaming an  “Obama judge” for the ruling.  Roberts retaliated claiming the Court doesn’t have Obama, Bush, Clinton, or Trump judges.  …that an independent judiciary is something we should be thankful for.
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COWARDS ? Now is the time for the Republican-controlled Senate to do the American thing and protect the Special Counsel from  President Trump’s effort to undermine it.  This is no longer politics in general, this is about whether or not we are a nation of laws. Failure to do that, and I am convinced certain members of Congress are constitutional anarchists determined to destroy our republic.
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Rogue wave…. or monstrous blue wave ?
Real Americans are rising up to save our republic, and all the quality of life things worked and died for over the years.   After 2020, the right wing Republicans will be irrelevant, forced to climb back under the rock from which they emerged.
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What in the  Hell is wrong with us ?  These Central American peoples of all ages are willing to trek thousands of miles to attempt to enter America, and we are sending troops to back up border control to deny them legal entrance.  SHAME on our President, the selfish Republican party.  By their admirable efforts, they are demonstrating the kind of resolve we want in our workforce.
Christian ?   No, freaking way.  Our leaders are the epitome of  the  anti-Christ !  Hypocrites and un-American at heart ! 
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Trump has proposed a  5 percent budget cut for each Cabinet agency yesterday.
     Wait just a minute !
Didn’t Congress pass a $1.3trillion catchall spending bill earlier in the year after passing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in December, which gave corporations a 40% tax cut, and was skewed heavily in favor of big earners with the rest of the country getting a cut around 1%.
      According to the Treasury Dept. the federal deficit for FY Sept. 30 was $779 billion, up 17% from a year ago primarily due to the shortfall in revenues from corporations as a result of their huge tax cuts.
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Bath Iron Works (Maine) Gets $3.9 billion Navy Award 7 days before Sen. Collin’s “Yes” Vote for Kavanaugh
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      Reecntly, Bill Palmer, PalmerReports.com, gave his reason why Nikki Haley resigned from her post as United Nations Ambassador.

       The story was carried in more detail by the Business Insider.com, which points to her resignation one day after Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) requested the State Dept. investigate her acceptance of seven free flights aboard private jets  from three South Carolina business men.
      While she listed the flights on her 2017 financial disclosure, the information was incomplete according to CREW and did not qualify for an exemption.
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       Breaking: Concern that right wingers are set to rewrite the United States Constitution via an Article V Convention, or Amendments Convention, called by two-thirds of the state legislatures (34).  A three-quarter vote is required for an amendment to become part of the Constitution.   Reportedly, right wingers want to convert our system of government to a confederation of “supreme” states, essentially minimizing the present amount of federal control.
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Trump in hot water on tax evasion and the legitimacy of his inheritance ?
We’ll see !!
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     Since Deputy Atty Gen’l Rod Rosenstein would not fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller, assuming Trump first fired Rosenstein.
     On November 8, 2017, I noted Brian Benczkowski was nominated by President Trump in June [2017] to be U.S. Assistant Attorney General for the Criminal Division. Along party lines, he was confirmed by the Senate recently, raising the question would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein was fired and he  was appointed in his place. He said he would not recuse himself from  questions in the Mueller investigation.
     The big question mark here is that Benczkowski had represented Russia’s Alfa Bank at some point in the past and had no prosecutorial experience.  He had worked for Atty Gen’l Jeff Sessions and the Bush administration and was not opposed by Rosenstein.
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     Palmerreport.com believes Roger Stone will be the next person indicted/arrested by Special Counsel Robert Mueller.
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  As if Trump did not have enough problems, here comes Allen Weisselberg, long-time CFO of the Trump Organization and now a recipient of “immunity” from  the Attorney General of New York.
       This is especially significant, notes PalmerReports.com, since he is testifying about state level charges in addition to federal charges, which cannot be nullified by a Trump pardon.
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      NO ATTORNEY CLIENT PRIVILEGE: Palmerreport.com reminds readers that Trump has NO attorney-Client privilege with Ty Cobb who he hired on July 14, 2017 to help with the Russia scandal. To save personal funds, Trump put Cobb on the White House payroll, so Cobb is free to disclose any information Special Counsel Mueller wants him to.
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  I expect Attorney General Sessions to be fired or to resign any day now.  That puts Deputy Atty. Gen. Rod Rosenstein in jeopardy.  Will Brian Benszkowski be moved in the fill the void. Would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein were fired ?
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HEADS UP !   A majority vote in both the House and Senate can change the number of Justices on the Supreme Court. The number is fixed by statute, not by the Constitution. It has ranged between 6 and 10 since 1789.
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DAMN  IT !   I miss decency.
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“President” Trump has made 4,229 false (lies) and misleading claims since his inauguration. (Washington Post). …………………………………………………………………   
WOULD ANYONE WANT their spouse to lie repeatedly ?, their child ?, mother ?, father ?, minister ?, child’s teacher ?,  coach ?, employer ?.  IF NOT, why would they support President Trump who is on record with telling 4.5 lies per day,  4,200 lies since his inauguration on January 20 ?. 
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Trump boasts about the stock market in his first 31 months as President, but the S&P 500 appreciated 149% during President Obama’s first 31 months in office, 2 ½ times as it advanced under Trump, and Obama inherited the worst stock market/economic collapse since the 1930s, Trump inherited a strong stock market and economic recovery.
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The U.S. Chamber of Commerce currently estimates the impact of Trump tariffs on the following states stand to be: Louisiana ($5.2 bil.), Washington ($5.7 bil.), Texas ($1.4 bil.), S. Carolina ($2.6 bil.), Illinois ($2.1 bil.), California ($4.0 bil.), Kentucky ($917 mil.), Michigan (842 mil.), Ohio ($826 mil.).
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Orwellian: George Orwell’s 1984 wretched society was controlled by denial of the truth,  the dissemination of  misinformation, propaganda, and surveillance, i.e., Big Brother is watching.    “Just remember what you are seeing  and what you are reading is not what’s happening.” Trump  told the VFW July 24
“The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears…” George Orwell’s  dystopian novel – “1984”  published in 1949.
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A recent Gallup poll shows  how  people polled  would vote if the election were held today
Democrats      30%
Republicans   26%
Independents 40%

The key here is twofold. The Democrats must get their vote out, which may be difficult in face of Republican voter suppression. Then too, they need to get a lot  of the Independent vote, which will be helped as Americans see the Trump administration gut treasured institutions, regulations designed to ensure a better environment in the future, healthcare, and undermine time-tested, valued global alliances while cultivating the favor of enemies.
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Special Counsel Robert Mueller  must comply with regulations, rules, procedures, and policies of the Department of Justice as set forth in 28 CFR 600. He can only be removed for misconduct, dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, or other good cause, including violation of the Department’s policy.
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What Trump and his base have in common: They both deplore the same people – people of color, the handicapped, liberals, foreigners.
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VOTES FLIPPED for TRUMP  in Key States in 2016
      Daily Kos’ Aldous Pennyfarthing (Pen name for Tom Breuer)  gave reasons in Alternet.org, July 27, why he thinks the Russians [or someone] flipped votes for Trump in 2016.
      The basis for this conclusion was comparing exit polls with actual outcome in North Carolina Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
 Pennsylvania: Exit polls Clinton 50.5 – Trump 46.1.  Result: Clinton 46.1 –   Trump 48.8.
Wisconsin: Exit poll Clinton 48.2 – Trump 44.3  Result: Clinton 47.6 – Trump 48.8.
North Carolina: Exit poll Clinton  48.6 – Trump 46.5. Result: Clinton 46.1 – Trump 49.9.
      An FOI suit by Bradley Moss (cybersecurity lawyer) brought against the government  revealed Russians hacked inside voting systems in seven big states.
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Wake up out there. These aren’t conservative Republicans, they are anarchists, extremists  who have wrested control of the Republican party over the last 20 years and are intent on a party rule with no checks and balances.  This is  a bloodless coup.
If  they can lock up control of both Houses, the Presidency, Supreme Court and strategic lower court appointments, and a major news media broadcaster, survival of our republic will depend on whose side the military and police forces take.
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 Sinclair Broadcast Group  (BEWARE !)   
      Sinclair Broadcast Group is using its clout as owner of  193 television stations in 80 markets as a lever to manipulate local station viewers’ minds pitching it’s right wing propaganda. Viewers tend to trust local stations programing over national networks.  A July 16, 2018 FCC decision denied Sinclair’s acquisition of the Tribune Broadcast Group, which would have expanded its reach into New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago markets
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 Sinclair Bank (no relation to the broadcast  group) has surfaced as a lender to Michael Cohen, Jared Kushner, his father and Trump.  Ivanka Trump no longer on board. 
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        Treason is defined by Article 3, section 3: Treason, as levying war against the U.S., or in adhering to its enemy, namely aid and comfort, also defined as any act that deliberately strengthens or tends to strengthen enemies of the U.S. or that weakens the power of the U.S. to resist and attack such enemies.
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TRUMP’S BASE:  Some voted for Trump because they always vote Republican. Then there are those whose opinions are based on emotional disorders, those who will never accept the truth no matter what (Confirmation Bias); those who accept bad behavior as the norm (Deviancy Down); and those who while stupid, ill informed who actually believe they are highly intelligent, competent (Dunning Krueger). These people don’t have enough knowledge to know they don’t have enough knowledge, i.e.,too dumb to know they are dumb.(alternet.com 7/23/18)
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July 19, 2018: Republicans refuse to renew election security funding over Russian hacking – Democrats livid, as all of us should be. 
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The Dept. of Justice charged a Russian national, Mariia Butina, of illegally trying to influence American politics using the NRA, religious organizations  as a means of gaining backchannel access to the highest levels of the Republican Party.  Mother Jones says  Butina acted as a covert Russian agent, an unregistered foreign agent.
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      Since Deputy Atty Gen’l Rod Rosenstein would not fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller,   assuming Trump first fired Rosenstein.
     On November 8, I noted Brian Benczkowski was nominated by President Trump in June [2017] to be U.S. Assistant Attorney General for the Criminal Division. Along party lines, he was confirmed by the Senate recently, raising the question would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein was fired and he  was appointed in his place. He said he would not recuse himself from  questions in the Mueller investigation.
     The big question mark here is that Benczkowski had represented Russia’s Alfa Bank at some point in the past and had no prosecutorial experience.  He had worked for Atty Gen’l Jeff Sessions and the Bush administration and was not opposed by Rosenstein.

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A “MALEVOLENT FOOL” – Lt. Col. , Ret’d, Ralph Peters, ex-Fox analyst referring to Trump.   Malevolent: evil, harmful, injurious.
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Un-American ! Trump claims writers of U.S. Constitution treated Him unfairly, adding we have the worst constitution writers in the world…Russia has better constitution writers than we do, says Trump . “I talked with Putin, and he said their constitution never gives him problems.” Andy Borowitz, (The Borowitz Report).
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      WE DON”T WANT TO GO THERE !  The Trump administration is taking the United States straight to a place none of us wants to be – civil unrest,  an extended recession, a fiscal crisis where we can’t pay our bills, ergo the need to slash healthcare, safety net programs, a host of programs that have improved our quality of life.
      This administration’s actions on trade (tariffs, TPP), the intentional divisiveness of America along racial lines, and abandonment of our long-time allies have opened the door for China to dominate the world, economically and militarily.  That’s Un-American.  This has to be stopped.
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Republican strategist, Steve Schmidt, leaves Republican Party after 29 years, saying the party is “corrupt, indecent and immoral,” and with a few exceptions  elected  Republicans are “feckless cowards who disgrace and dishonor the legacies of the party’s greatest leaders.” Others quitting Republican Party: George Will, “Morning” Joe Scarborough. To date, 35 senior Trump advisers have left.
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President Donald Trump is NOT pro-business, he’s pro-Trump
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TRUMP EXIT STRATEGY: The most important thing for King Donald is his image.  Currently he is scrambling to initiate as many perceived accomplishments as possible (taxes, anti-immigrant, anti-allies, deregulation, North Korea, Iran, ISIS, unemployment).
      This way, if he is impeached, defeated in 2020, or forced to resign, he can claim to have been the greatest president of all-time – he’ll tweet it relentlessly, deviancy-downed Americans will believe it and every network in the country, whores that they are, (including MSNBC and CNN) will scramble to cover his tweets.  IMHO: he won’t risk losing in 2020, just not run – declare he has accomplished his mission and walk away.
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POSSIBLE ! That the blue wave won’t happen in November.  Why? The American voter is still zoned out about what is happening – too busy with other stuff, not capable of  objectively analyzing issues accurately without bias.
     The result: The extremist Republicans and their president will run the economy, a constructive foreign relations policy, and America’s quality of life into the ground.  In order to get the American voter’s attention, we have to hit bottom first.
      That means an extended recession, a fiscal crisis (unable to pay bills), a 65% drop in the stock market and,  national unrest greater than that which the Vietnam War attracted.
       We are witnessing the unfolding of  the biggest scandal in our country’s history, including illegal financial transactions, vote tampering and  untethered collusion and obstruction of  justice at the highest level.  This may take years to unravel.
      Again, I say “possible,” not probable..  Probable would be all that but not as severe.
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Corporations got a 40% tax cut, John and Jane Q get a 1.2% – 1.8% cut, even so, Trump plans to introduce a “rescission package” to cut $15 billion in already approved spending on the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation program, as well as 30 other programs. The  U.S. House will likely approve his  rescission  package, the Senate may not.
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According to Bloomberg.com, 1,100 economists warn that Trump is repeating one of the biggest mistakes of the Great Depression – tariffs and trade protectionism. The warning came in a letter from the conservative-leaning National Taxpayers Union.
      China loves it !  Trump opened the door, China entered, capitalizing on Trump’s regressive “America First” mantra, with its far reaching Belt and Road outreach with investments encompassing infrastructure, education, construction materials, rail and hi-way, auto, real estate, power grid and iron and steel investments to 68 countries, 65% of the world’s population and 40% of global GDP.
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      Kim took Trump’s war with North Korea option off the table, so looks like Trump now has his sights set on IRAN – to please his base, of course, in time for the mid-terms, of course
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North Korea give up nuclear weapons ?  Never !  Kim wants a global stage, so does Trump, who will not risk being embarrassed by the little tyrant. Trump will bail.  He needs a villain to trash to please his base. Kim has what he wants.  I think Trump has been played like a harp. 
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Impeachment of Trump unlikely with this Republican House. Trump has surrounded himself with newly appointed Cabinet members, so Section 4 of the 25th amendment is not a reality.   What’s left ?  A deal with Mueller for his RESIGNATION ?
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Must Read: “Will Christian Nationalism Drive Trump’s Base to the Polls in November ?”  Truthout April 15, Bill Berkowitz. This explains why his base of Christians votes for an immoral person, one whose behavior is the antithesis of the teachings of Christ.
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Will Trump  Fire Mueller

      Trump can’t fire Mueller directly, it must be done by the Department of Justice.  Trump would have to find someone to do it.  Nixon did it in 1973 when he had to work through two attorney generals until  his solicitor general, Robert Bork fired Special Prosecutor Archibald Cox. 
      Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein isn’t going to do it, so Trump must find someone from DOJ , or someone outside who has already been confirmed by the Senate who will do it.         Philip Bump, Washington Post (WAPO) April 10, did a great job outlining possibilities in, “Why Trump can’t fire Mueller – at least not directly.”  I can only touch on a few of his points here.
       In his article, Georgetown University’s professor Paul Butler raises the interesting point that  firing Mueller may not be necessary if  Rosenstein is replaced by someone hostile to the Special Counsel’s investigation.  He would simply force a stall with lots of demands, even leak information to the White House.   
       REASONS NEEDED TO FIRE MUELLER: Trump would have to have  good reason to fire Mueller.  Grounds must be, misconduct, dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, or other good cause, including violation of policies of the Department of Justice, and failure to follow Justice Departments guidelines and violation of applicable canons of ethics.
       CAN TRUMP RESCIND  SPECIAL COUNSEL REGULATION ?  Yes, it’s possible but many legal hurdles  would make it difficult and possibly so time consuming as to make the action worthless. There is no clear cut answer. This would be decided in court, the legal ramifications just very complex.
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FISCAL CRISIS LOOMS IN FUTURE:  Headlines:“Federal debt primed to explode”….”U.S. Deficit to Surpass $1 Trillion Two Years Ahead of Estimates”….”This Year’s budget deficit to hit $804 B after tax cuts and spending hikes”….
       This is all a Republican scheme to justify massive spending cuts to social, health, educational  and safety net programs. It is called “Starving the Beast,” and will lead to debilitating and prolonged recession/bear market, increased crime, rioting and civil unrest.  Republicans set the stage with massive, unnecessary tax cuts and a big budget spend (see below: “Corporate Tax Cut Irresponsible”)
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Cambridge Analytica (now in bankruptcy) is center stage again. Palmer.com  reports  someone behind the scenes is trying to block  Britain’s  Channel 4 News from airing an expose  into Cambridge’s role in using  Facebook (FB) to influence voters to vote for Trump and not Clinton.  On Friday,  Facebook  banned Cambridge’s access.  Palmer speculates the Mercers are behind the  attempt to prevent Channel 4’s expose.  I was on  Cambridge’s case back on June 22, 2017,  noting that billionaire Robert Mercer was connected to Cambridge through Canada’s Aggregate IQ through an intellectual property agreement and worked to influence voting  in the Brexit referendum.  Aggregate is a data mining company.  While Aggregate denies any connection,  the story won’t go away. Palmer sees a connection between Cambridge and John Bolton’s SUPER PAC.  Palmer notes that UK Parliament is investigating  the connection between Cambridge and Brexit and documents referred to by Cambridge whistleblower Christopher Wylie reveal  the firm gave stolen Facebook  user data to Bolton’s PAC  (receiving stolen goods ?), though it is not known how Bolton used the data if his PAC even received it.  (See below: Mercer on the run ?) …………………………………………….
Remember the name Felix Sater, former business associate of Trump, convicted  Russian mafia money laundering figure, and key FBI informant.
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Another name to watch is Ted Malloch who Palmer.com reports was served a subpoena relating to the Trump/Russia probe.  Malloch is a U. S. citizen living in London with close tire to Roger Stone, Brexit leader Nigel Farage and the Trump campaign.  As noted above in Cambridge Analytica, there is a connection to parties involved in Brexit and Trump’s campaign.
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George Nader  has long-standing ties in the Mid-East and Washington over many years.  What appears to be important here is he is cooperating with the Mueller probe not as a wrongdoer, but as a source of information.  He has had ties with the Trump administration through Steve Bannon  and reportedly attended a meeting in the Seychelles Islands January 11, 2017 along with Blackwater founder and former Trump associate, Eric Prince, and Kirill Dmitriev head of a U.S. sanctioned investment firm with close ties to Putin.  Reportedly Nader represented United Arab Emirates’ Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan.
      I referred to the Seychilles meeting on April 5, 2017 noting  the Washington Post reported the meeting was intended to encourage Russia to curtail support for Iran and Syria (Trump wish list) in exchange for lifting U.S. sanctions on Russia.
We’ll see.
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“Protecting guns and profits have become more important than protecting the lives of young people” Henry A. Giroux, Truthout ,  March 4.
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Why are so many Americans beholden to guns ? It could be their sense of security was rocked by 9/11 plus the Great Recession/Bear Market.  Then it could be racial, a fear that people of different colors will eventually outnumber them, prompting  the need (in their paranoid minds) to stage a forceful change in governance (revolution).  This makes little sense, but from their point of  simplemindedness, they feel more secure with a dozen guns and cases of ammunition in house just in case.
     What these whackos don’t understand is they can’t use their guns outside of their homes for fear of injuring or killing an innocent person which not only sends them to jail, but opens them up to a lawsuit where they lose their stock portfolio, car, house and all those “blankies” that  go bang.  ………………………………………

 A quasi-fascist state would give Trump the untethered power he craves.
Read: The Ghost of Fascism in the Age of Trump
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/43529-the-ghost-of-fascism-in-the-age-of-trump
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U.S. Ranking globally and domestically is plunging under Trump
      Global approval of U.S. leadership from 134 countries has plunged to 30% from 48% in just a year.  Clearly, Trump isn’t making America Great Again in the eyes of all other countries.  The downside of this is we need the support of those countries.  Our nationalistic policies are opening doors throughout the world for China. A Gallup poll shows Germany replacing the U.S. as the top-rated power in the world.
      Under Trump, the United States has dropped to 11th place in the Bloomberg Innovation Index, which in addition  to  R&D spending, includes post secondary, or tertiary, education-efficiency category, which includes the share of new science and engineering graduates. Value-added manufacturing also dropped.  South Korea ranked first, followed by Sweden, Singapore, Germany, Switzerland, Japan, Finland, Denmark, France, Israel.
       Also under Trump, Americans’ trust in institutions (government, companies and the  media) has suffered the greatest loss on record according to a poll conducted by Edelman New York. The poll, including 33,000 “informed” individuals showed the U.S. dropping to 43 out of a possible 100, down 23 points in a year.  He is a human wrecking ball.
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CORPORATE TAX CUT IRRESPONSIBLE
“It's pure fantasy to think that the tax bill will lead to significantly higher wages and growth, as Republicans have promised,” Bloomberg continued. Had Congress actually listened to executives, or economists who study these issues carefully, it might have realized that. The tax bill is an economically indefensible blunder that will harm our future” –   Michael Bloomberg – billionaire business man former mayor NYC

      I don’t doubt some corporations need, and deserve a tax cut, but to reduce the rate from 35% to 21% is inexcusable, reckless, unjustifiable, and outright subversive to the best interests of America.
      Corporate income taxes comprise 9% of federal government receipts. If corporate taxes are slashed by 40% (from 35% to 21%), the government’s receipts from corporations are reduced by 3.6% from 9%.
      Individual income tax payments comprise 47% of  federal government receipts. At this point, I have no idea how much of an impact  Congress’ tax cuts will have on this source of federal revenues, but it stands to be significant.
      The Republican administration expects economic growth will be triggered by a sudden change in heart by corporations to abandon stock buybacks and the repatriation of billions stashed abroad to plug the big hole left in federal receipts by tax cuts with a surge in hiring and capital expenditures.
      That assumption is flawed. For one, why would a corporation  go on a hiring and cap-ex spending spree  with an economic expansion that  is 8-1/2 years old, 3 years longer (73%) than the average over 65 years (1945 – 2009).
      For another, are they naïve enough to assume there will be no recessions within the next 10 years ?
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Mercer on the run ?  Bannon and Breitbart bankroller, Robert Mercer is rapidly severing financial ties to Breitbart News and support of Steve Bannon and alt-right’s Milo Yiannopoulos. Mercer was a major supporter of Sen. Ted Cruz’s effort to gain the Republican nomination last year, but switched his allegiance to Trump when he won the nomination.
      In my March 21 post, I wrote, “Years from now, I suspect Mercer will be relaxing at his Long Island waterfront retreat, Owl’s Nest, or on his 200-foot yacht, Sea Owl, and look back over his illustrious career tarnished  by one regret – he backed the biggest con job in our nation’s history.”
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Red states In need of Fed government help the most
Six states (Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Utah, Wisconsin),  are planning to require poverty stricken people on Medicaid  to get jobs  or lose the coverage. Maine, Utah and Wisconsin want to put a time limit on coverage, the latter wants to drug-test people. Excluded: People with long-tern disabilities, the elderly, and children.  Isn’t it bad enough these people are in poverty ? 
      Vox Media reports that 9.8 million Medicaid recipients  don’t have jobs  due to: Illness/disabled (35%), retired (8%), taking care of home or family (28%), going to school (18%), cannot find work (8%). The remaining 60.2 million Americans on Medicaid work full-time of part-time.  I’m not sure what’s the Republican beef here.
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TRUMP’S PARDON POWER
     The President has the power to grant conditional pardons; to commute sentences; remit fines and forfeitures; and grant amnesty. This power can be exercised at any time after the offense has been committed, before conviction of after. Pardons cannot be limited by or controlled by legislative action (US legal.com)
Expect Trump to attempt to pardon anyone he wants, including himself. It’s a way out of facing responsibility very much like dodging the draft. Like when he justified his numerous bankruptcies, saying he only used U.S. laws to his advantage.  Well, “pardons” are his prerogative, in many, not all cases. He would take advantage of whatever loophole to avoid consequences, sort of like dodging the draft, or did I already say that ?
     The President cannot pardon people for “state” crimes, and it is doubtful he can pardon himself.
      Can the Mueller investigation survive Mueller’s firing ?
Slate.com’s July 21 article, “Trump can’t Escape the States,” says “YES.”
1-A state [NY] could hire Mueller and team.
2-State attorneys general could use their quo warranto power to investigate Trump’s organization for fraud and money laundering from Russian sources.
3-A Congressional committee (Senate Intelligence Committee) could hire Mueller or create a Joint select Committee.
4-Congress could pass a new veto-proof independent counsel statute.
FINALLY: If Trump resigns and Pence takes over, Pence could pardon Trump, as Ford did Nixon.
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THE GREAT AMERICAN EXPERIMENT UNDER SEIGE:  Not since the Civil War has the spirit and future of our nation been at such great risk, from within.  This  administration, Congress and U.S. Supreme Court is surgically dismembering  efforts over many years to ensure the safety  and well being of “all” Americans.
     The sooner, Americans recognize these are not genuine Republican conservatives, but extremists determined dismantle that which has been achieved over the years and replace it with “their” brand  of a  quasi-fascist state.  Ben Franklin was right when asked what kind of government  the Founding Fathers had given us.  “A Republic, if you can keep it,” was his response.
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TRUMP looking for a “Get Out Of Jail Free Card if the Feds close in?”
    Why not, he dodged military service with 5 deferments  during the Vietnam era (1964 – 1970).
     Reportedly, he has asked advisers about his power to pardon family members and himself  relating to Mueller’s investigation.
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WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE INVESTIGATION IS COMPLETED ? If the Special Counselor  concludes it is “necessary and appropriate” he is authorized to prosecute federal crimes arising out of the investigation, which he does after submitting a report to the attorney general explaining his reasons.

REASONS NEEDED TO FIRE MUELLER:  Misconduct,  dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, good cause (??), violation of Department policies.
WOULD MUELLER BE REPLACED ? Unclear. If the Democrats controlled Congress they could appoint another Special Counselor
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  “Connect the Dots.” This investigation is open-ended. These are people were part of the Trump team, or in a position to know information relating to activities before or after the 2016 election, though  not necessarily in any way guilty of any wrongdoing.
       Nigel Farage – President Trump- Hope Hicks, Jeffrey Sessions – Robert Mercer – Cambridge Analytics – Bannon- Carter Page – Kushner (Jared and Ivanka) – Eric Prince – Donald, Jr.  and Eric Trump – Wilbur Ross –  Michael Cohen – Ezra Cohen Watnick – Michael T. Flynn – Michael G. Flynn ( son)  – JD Gordon  –  Christopher Steele – Michael Caputo -Breitbart News – Roger Stone – Julian Assange – Paul Manafort – Rick Gates – Jill Stein – Sam Clovis –  Kellyanne and George Conway –Dana Rohrabacher – Bill Browder – Peter W. Smith (deceased: suicide), Paul Behrends – Brad Parscale – Sam Nunberg – Dan Scavino – Keith Schiller –  Alex Van Der waan – Ted Malloch -Boris Epshteyn, Ike Kaveladze, and  Russia’s alfa Group – Felix Sater – Rob Goldstone – alfa Group – Emin Agalarov – Sergey Gorkov –  Sergey Kislyak, ambassador to the U.S., Natalia Veselnitskaya, Oleg Deripaska all connect directly or indirectly to the Trump/Russia investigation and some have a connection to Brexit, as well.
      According to the “Observer,” Mercer’s Cambridge Analytica was connected with Canada’s AggregateIQ through an intellectual property agreement and worked together on the Brexit referendum. Aggregate is also a data mining company. While Mercer was a big supporter of Trump, there is no known connection between AggregateIQ and Trump’s campaign staff.
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 REMOVING TRUMP FROM  OFFICE
Can Section 4 of the 25th Amendment, U.S. Constitution – Remove Trump ?
      It’s a stretch.  The key for his removal is ”that he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.”  Section 4 mentions nothing  that he is unfit, delusional, unbalanced, crazy,  impulsive, irrational, impaired, sociopathic, psychopathic, narcissistic.
      That would be the threshold that would have to be crossed if Trump is removed from office via Section 4 of the 25th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. There is no precedent

      It isn’t just Democrats, liberals, moderates and reasonable people who find Trump caustic, and dangerous, conservatives like George Will, David Brooks and Ross Douthart are also urging his removal.
      First, there are four ways to get rid of Trump – death, resignation, impeachment and Section 4 of the 25th Amendment.
      The procedure employing the 25th Amendment requires the Vice President and the majority of the cabinet of 15 (8) to vote to remove the president. They would submit their declaration in writing to the President pro tempore ( Sen. Orrin Hatch) and Speaker of the House (Paul Ryan) that the president is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, and the Vice President will immediately assume to office as acting president.
      However, the president may contend the move by submitting his own letter to the President pro tempore and Speaker of the House, that he believes he is capable of performing his duties, in which case he will resume the office of presidency.
       The Vice President and Cabinet members may then resubmit their declaration at which point Congress would vote within 48 hours if in session. If not, Congress  will act within 21 days where a two-thirds vote would be required to remove  him.  
        However, as “Business Insider.com” noted on Jan. 9, 2018, Trump could simply fire the Cabinet members who voted to oust him from office.
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IMPEACHMENT
      A  Consult/Politico poll shows 43% of Americans want Congress to begin procedures for the impeachment of President Trump.
      The U.S. Constitution  enables Congress to remove a president for “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.” Initially, the House votes on one or more articles of impeachment- if a majority vote is reached, he is impeached.  BUT, impeachment only means indictment. The Senate holds a trial overseen by the chief justice and Supreme Court. A group of House members serve as prosecutors and the Senate as jurors. If two-thirds of the senators find the president guilty, he is removed from office and the vice president takes over.
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Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com
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George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Only the Fed Can Slow the Bear

INVESTORS first read.com Daily edge before the open           
DJIA: 24,285
S&P 500:2,632
Nasdaq Com.:6,738
Russell 2000: 1,488
Monday,  November 26,  2018  9:05 a.m.

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gbifr79@gmail.com

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This volatility is EXACTLY what I meant when on December 27, 2017, I Warned:
“2018: The Wildest One in Years.” 
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“No one is bearish, and that’s BEARISH…Odds favor a 12%-18% correction” – Jan. 22, 2018: DJIA:26,214. 
(A 14-day 12.2% correction started 4 days later.)
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Trump – a human wrecking ball (1/3/17)…….and a pathological liar !
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What’s so Christian about favoring the rich over the poor ?
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“Accuse the other side of that which you are guilty.”
                                         Joseph Goebbels, Nazi propaganda minister.
Damn it ! I miss decency
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WARNING ! When the market gets hammered, expect the Trump administration and Wall Streeters to crank out anything that resembles good news that could stop the carnage.  Ignore them. This is often the trigger for bear market rallies that suck investors in before the next move down.
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Market Status: 
       The bulls desperately need the Fed to step in and prevent further erosion in the market. It would help if the Fed announced it was easing from its interest rate hikes in 2019.  
      Last week, Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtors’ chief economist  urged the Fed to back off its restrictive interest rate, calling for another hike this year and four next in an effort to make it easier for first-time home buyers to buy, hopefully reversing the slump  in the housing industry.  
      I think the Fed wants more proof of an overall slowing in the economy.  Minutes for the Fed’s November meeting will be released on Thursday.  
       Is today’s rally in anticipation of those minutes hinting at a change in policy ?
If it holds and follows through tomorrow – yes.

       Micro-managing the economy to that extent has the risk of sending mixed signals to decision makers.
       The stock market must deal with the likelihood of a constitutional crisis, prompted by new indictments of Trump team members and their involvement in the 2016 presidential election, and especially if Trump himself was involved.
        So far, it does not appear the Street cares what happens in Washington, but the uncertainty that would increase with the potentially biggest political scandal of all time combined with a looming recession, rising interest rates, a trade war and a possible military conflict in the Mid-East or North Korea will ensure a continuation of the market’s demise.
        I have warned of a recession for months, and I am not alone (See Shilling below). I don’t think individuals, corporations or our federal government is ready for a downturn.
        Odds strongly indicate we have seen the highs for the 2009 – 2018  bull market.
       The case against that is that the six month period between November 1 and May 1 offers the best opportunity to make money in the stock market, a highly consistent seasonal phenom discovered many years ago by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.
        Could this time around be an exception ?  Or, maybe the current decline has further to go, but rebounds  by May.   Then too, October has hosted the beginning of bull markets for the S&P 500 in 1987, 1990, 1998, and 2002.
        Conclusion: I think we are in a bear market with a recession just around the corner. The 2007 – 2009 bear market bottom came in March the same month bear market bottoms came in 1978 and 1980.
        Bear markets are official after a 20% decline in the S&P 500. October’s decline was only 11.5%. I think this one will have to play out month by month with no predictable bottom foreseeable at this time.
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 Economic Status: Late stage expansion with recession starting in late 2019. Bull markets hit peak 6 to 12 months ahead of recessions. Republicans were in White House in 9 of  the last 10 recessions. Their rosy projections ignore the likelihood of a recession within a year to 18 months. Housing and auto industries already in recession. The crunch can gain momentum ahead of schedule. U.S. fiscal crisis looms 2-3 years out.
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TECHNICAL OBSERVATIONS FOR “TRADERS” FAVORITES    
     
A high-volume selling climax , November 20, looked like the bottom for the Street’s favorite action stocks, but a follow through  has not happened yet, perhaps today’s rally will give it a chance
       Generally, stocks in a tailspin like the ones below will require a base to form before a major turn can take place.  Most likely that will trace out as a double bottom, where the stock  successfully tests the same level days/weeks later then heads north.  This is about supply and demand. The double bottom simply indicates a confirmation that buyers are there in enough strength to hold the line against sellers.  Most times the second bottom will be a bit higher than the first bottom.
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Facebook (FB: 132) Down 40% from its 52-week high, FB’s rally off heavy volume sell off last  Tuesday did not follow through Wednesday. The stock hit a wall at 137 and backed off.  Resistance now starts at 134-135, but continues up the line. The FB magic here is in question.  If sellers  panic, FB can slip below 120.  FB needs a turning pattern, a base of support where sellers are simply outslugged by buyers.
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Amazon (AMZN: 1,502) Tested, and temporarily broke, its October low
,  before rebounding from a high-volume plunge to 1415. Sellers persistent. Minor support at a1,490 must hold or last week’s low will be tested.  Resistance starts at 1,535 Some support at 1,490.  Risk: 1,167 in ugly bear market..
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Netflix (NFLX: 258)  Classic “Head & Shoulders Top” with massive overhead supply.  Spiked down to 250 last Tuesday before rebounding.   Hit wall at 276. Resistance now 264.  257 must hold or NFLX tests last  week’s low at 250.  Still under pressure. Risk: 209
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Alphabet (GOOG: 1023).  Successfully tested the October lows  and rebounded to 1,048 to form  a double bottom pattern. Sellers still there.  Risk: 907 (in an ugly market)
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Apple (AAPL: 172)   Downtrend continues with some support 165-170.   . Pattern unattractive, needs a base of support. Risk: 158
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 Note: support/resistance levels change frequently.
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THE MARKET TODAY

      The cruise-control automatic buy mode dictated by the Street’s algorithms has been jolted. Market weakness suggests these algos are being tweaked to take  mounting uncertainties into consideration.
       The possibility of a recession next year is gaining traction.  Housing is already in a recession and autos are struggling.

       Black Friday retail sales boomed.  The real story here though is consumers are desperate to pounce on bargains because they are strapped, burdened by credit card debt and increasing fears of recession.

What could change the picture ?
         The Fed !  It  could opt to change interest rate policy to a less restrictive tone, which would confirm my belief the Fed thinks we are heading into a recession.
          The 2009 – 2018 bull market is becoming undone, piece by piece. This is what happens in early stage bear markets – the dominos begin to tumble, each tumble driving stock prices lower. 
      The S&P 500 is only down 9% from the October peak. At a minimum, a bear market drops 20%.  That would take the S&P 500 down to 2,352  and the DJIA down to 21,560.
        But that is the minimum criteria for a bear market.  This one stands to drop well in excess of 30%.  It all depends on what new negatives hit the market at lower levels.
       The looming possibility Special Counsel Robert Mueller will indict key Trump administration individuals, as well as Wikileaks founder Julian Assange indicates the investigation has entered its final phase….and it won’t be pretty.
       The pattern here has similarities with Nixon’s Watergate scandal, which contributed to a recession/bear market along with the OPEC oil embargo.
       Today’s equivalent to the oil embargo is our trade war.
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      TECHNICAL OBSERVATION:
       Perhaps the market’s inept attempt to rebound Wednesday after a high-volume sell off  was related to the Thanksgiving Day holiday, big hitters taking off for an extended weekend.
       We had a gap open  on the upside last Wednesday, but little change by the end of the day. The rally fell short of expectations.
        A strong open is forecast by the futures heading into today’s open. It will have to penetrate and hold above resistance at DJIA 24,670 (S&P 500: 2,670) to give the market a chance of a meaningful rally.

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RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:24,610; S&P 500:2,667:Nasdaq Comp.:7,028
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Technical Note: Frequently, there is what I refer to as a mid-afternoon counter move (2:30 – 3:00 where the market rallies or declines against the prevailing trend for the day.   This can be a fake out for investors thinking the market has turned (up or down).
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        A. Gary Shilling  just turned bearish in his November issue, headlining his issue of “INSUGHT“ with “Looming Recession ?”   I have tracked Shilling for decades. He nailed the 2007 – 2009 Great Recession Bear Market before anyone else. For him to suddenly turn negative is  a shocker.  He details his reasons in a 50-page analysis that  is overwhelming in detail and backed up with stats and graphs. No one in my experience has more economic/investing integrity than Shilling. 
 
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IMPORTANT NOTES:
>
Through September, this bull market is 116 months old, or 3.5 times longer than the average of the last  15  bull markets..
>Bear markets start 6 – 12 months ahead of the onset of a recession.  
>Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House
>The current economic expansion has lasted 123 months. That’s 65 months (2.1x) longer than the average expansion (58.4 months) going back to 1945.
>Of the 10 recessions since 1950,the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was 3.8 Months.
> Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months. 
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Bear Market Perspective

      Officially, we are not in a bear market until the S&P 500 declines 20% (2,352).  That would translate into DJIA 21,560 – “ouch” !
       That’s the minimum drop for a bear, but the last two bears crushed the S&P 500 by 57% (2007-2009) and 50% (2000-2002).  
My bear market target would be declines of
      DJIA: 18,500 (-31.4%)
      S&P 500 :  2,150 (-27.0%)
      Nasdaq Comp.:5,200 (-36.1%)
      But, depending on what new negatives hit the market when it gets down there, the bear market could reach much, much  lower levels.
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EARNINGS GROWTH MYTH:
       The Street is counting on earnings growth to reduce the overvaluation of equities.   Look again.

       A 20% increase in S&P 500 earnings this year will  be tough to beat next year.  The quarter versus year ago quarters in 2019 will make poor reading going up against the 2018 earnings, possibly earnings growth around  5%. But the Street is not factoring in the likelihood of a recession, which could mean negative growth.
       At times, politics has little impact on the big  picture. This time is different.

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BULLISH CASE
      A sharp increase in corporate earnings is what the bulls are relying on to power the market higher.
      Q2 earnings increased 25.0% over a year ago.
      Thomson Reuters projects Q3’s increase in earnings to  hit 20.5% and Q4 18.0%.
      However 2019 is a different story with earnings increases of Q1: +7.0%, Q2: +5.1%, Q3: +5.9% and Q4: +3.9%, that averages out to +5.4%.
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BEARISH CASE
RISING INTEREST RATES:
      >The Fed is persistently raising its benchmark interest rate (federal funds), as well as reducing its inflated balance sheet,  which will drive other rates higher, which will adversely impact interest sensitive industries.  . 
      >The 10-year treasury has been rising steadily and now stands at 3.09%.
      > The yield curve is flattening as short-term treasuries rise faster than long-tern governments just another warning sign of impending recession.
 OVERVALUED MARKET
      > The onset of bear markets have led the beginning of recessions by 8.5 months going back to 1956, so don’t look for a recession to signal a bear market. The longest lead time was 13 months (1968 – 1969) The “mode” (most frequent) is 12 months.
       > If companies are buying back their own stock at a record clip, pushing stocks higher, why then are insiders selling $8 of stock for every $1 of stock they buy ?
       .> Companies took advantage of low interest rates to load up on debt in recent years for acquisitions and to buy back their own stock. Excluding banks, the tally is $6.3trillion. The downside of this comes when these companies will need to refinance this debt at higher interest rates when it comes due.
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       > The S&P 500 price to sales ratio at 2.30 is 40% higher than in 2007 before the devastating bear market, and is even higher than in March 2000 before the dot-com bubble burst leading to a bear market. Both bear markets dropped 50%.
       > The Shiller P/E is 31.5  times earnings versus a mean of 16.6.  Shiller’s P/E is based on  inflation adjusted earnings over 10 years.
       > The Total Market Capitalization to GDP  stands at 147.3%, anything above 115% is  considered “overvalued.”
        > Thompson Reuters reports the S&P 500 sells at 18.1 times earnings and 16.2 times a year from now. All this versus a 10-year average of 14.3.
AGING BULL MARKET:
       > The bull market is now  nine years and six months old (115 months).  That’s 3.5 times the average of the last 15 bull markets.
AGING ECONOMIC EXPANSION:
      > Republicans – the recession party. Nine of last 10 recession have been with a Republican in the White House.  Odds favor Trump will make 10 for 11.
      > The current economic expansion has lasted 112 months. That’s 53 months (1.9 x) longer than the average expansion going back to 1945.  Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House.
      > Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months. 
      > Housing stocks have been in a prolonged slump since January. The iShares  home construction ETF has dropped 20.5%, as interest rates rise. Not only is it  major employer, its health affects other industries, especially furniture and appliances..
      > Household debt increased for the 16th straight quarter to 13.3 trillion, that’s 19%  above the post-financial-crisis low.
      > Jamie Dimon, CEO J.P. Morgan Chase,  thinks the benchmark  10-yearTreasury note , now 2.95%, should be 5%. The rate impacts lending for autos, mortgages and businesses.
      > Personal loans have soared   18% to  a record 120 billion, Personal savings as percent of disposable income at 3%, down from 9% in 2012.
      > Low interest rates have encouraged US companies to go on a debt binge, amassing  $6.3 trillion. With rates on the increase, refinancing will get more costly, according to S&P analyst, Andrew Chang, who points out that this amounts to $8 for every $1 in cash.
      > Recently, 1,100 economists WARN Trump is repeating biggest mistakes of Great Depression – tariffs, trade protectionism, according to conservative National Taxpayers’ Union.
      > Former Fed Chair, Ben Bernanke, says economy to fall off a cliff in 2020, thanks to the $1.5 trillion corporate and individual tax cut and $300 billion increase in spending.              
TRUMP’S TRADE WAR TANTRUM
      > Trump’s tariff tiff costing  US companies a bundle:  The damage extends to manufacturers, input suppliers, fishermen, and numerous businesses who are finding it more difficult to sell abroad.
      > Today’s businesses are complex, especially supply chains that can involve a thousand parts that make up a whole product, many of which are sourced from different countries, sometimes crossing back and forth across the same border a number of times.
      >  Trump is considering leaving World Trade Organization (WTO).
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IMPLODING:
      So far, the stock market has not wavered in face of the increasing likelihood, Trump and many present and former associates are in legal trouble.
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POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET

SUPREME STUPIDITY !
Trump vs. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts.  Rough guess here, but I would say Roberts thumps Trump every time they get in the ring.
Trump bashed  a decision by the Ninth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for ruling that the administration must consider claims of asylum regardless of where migrants cross the border, which rejected Trump’s wishes. He accused the court of bias blaming an  “Obama judge” for the ruling.  Roberts retaliated claiming the Court doesn’t have Obama, Bush, Clinton, or Trump judges.  …that an independent judiciary is something we should be thankful for.
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COWARDS ? Now is the time for the Republican-controlled Senate to do the American thing and protect the Special Counsel from  President Trump’s effort to undermine it.  This is no longer politics in general, this is about whether or not we are a nation of laws. Failure to do that, and I am convinced certain members of Congress are constitutional anarchists determined to destroy our republic.
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Rogue wave…. or monstrous blue wave ?
Real Americans are rising up to save our republic, and all the quality of life things worked and died for over the years.   After 2020, the right wing Republicans will be irrelevant, forced to climb back under the rock from which they emerged.
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What in the  Hell is wrong with us ?  These Central American peoples of all ages are willing to trek thousands of miles to attempt to enter America, and we are sending troops to back up border control to deny them legal entrance.  SHAME on our President, the selfish Republican party.  By their admirable efforts, they are demonstrating the kind of resolve we want in our workforce.
Christian ?   No, freaking way.  Our leaders are the epitome of  the  anti-Christ !  Hypocrites and un-American at heart ! 
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Trump has proposed a  5 percent budget cut for each Cabinet agency yesterday.
     Wait just a minute !
Didn’t Congress pass a $1.3trillion catchall spending bill earlier in the year after passing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in December, which gave corporations a 40% tax cut, and was skewed heavily in favor of big earners with the rest of the country getting a cut around 1%.
      According to the Treasury Dept. the federal deficit for FY Sept. 30 was $779 billion, up 17% from a year ago primarily due to the shortfall in revenues from corporations as a result of their huge tax cuts.
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Bath Iron Works (Maine) Gets $3.9 billion Navy Award 7 days before Sen. Collin’s “Yes” Vote for Kavanaugh
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      Reecntly, Bill Palmer, PalmerReports.com, gave his reason why Nikki Haley resigned from her post as United Nations Ambassador.

       The story was carried in more detail by the Business Insider.com, which points to her resignation one day after Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) requested the State Dept. investigate her acceptance of seven free flights aboard private jets  from three South Carolina business men.
      While she listed the flights on her 2017 financial disclosure, the information was incomplete according to CREW and did not qualify for an exemption.
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       Breaking: Concern that right wingers are set to rewrite the United States Constitution via an Article V Convention, or Amendments Convention, called by two-thirds of the state legislatures (34).  A three-quarter vote is required for an amendment to become part of the Constitution.   Reportedly, right wingers want to convert our system of government to a confederation of “supreme” states, essentially minimizing the present amount of federal control.
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Trump in hot water on tax evasion and the legitimacy of his inheritance ?
We’ll see !!
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     Since Deputy Atty Gen’l Rod Rosenstein would not fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller, assuming Trump first fired Rosenstein.
     On November 8, 2017, I noted Brian Benczkowski was nominated by President Trump in June [2017] to be U.S. Assistant Attorney General for the Criminal Division. Along party lines, he was confirmed by the Senate recently, raising the question would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein was fired and he  was appointed in his place. He said he would not recuse himself from  questions in the Mueller investigation.
     The big question mark here is that Benczkowski had represented Russia’s Alfa Bank at some point in the past and had no prosecutorial experience.  He had worked for Atty Gen’l Jeff Sessions and the Bush administration and was not opposed by Rosenstein.
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     Palmerreport.com believes Roger Stone will be the next person indicted/arrested by Special Counsel Robert Mueller.
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  As if Trump did not have enough problems, here comes Allen Weisselberg, long-time CFO of the Trump Organization and now a recipient of “immunity” from  the Attorney General of New York.
       This is especially significant, notes PalmerReports.com, since he is testifying about state level charges in addition to federal charges, which cannot be nullified by a Trump pardon.
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      NO ATTORNEY CLIENT PRIVILEGE: Palmerreport.com reminds readers that Trump has NO attorney-Client privilege with Ty Cobb who he hired on July 14, 2017 to help with the Russia scandal. To save personal funds, Trump put Cobb on the White House payroll, so Cobb is free to disclose any information Special Counsel Mueller wants him to.
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  I expect Attorney General Sessions to be fired or to resign any day now.  That puts Deputy Atty. Gen. Rod Rosenstein in jeopardy.  Will Brian Benszkowski be moved in the fill the void. Would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein were fired ?
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HEADS UP !   A majority vote in both the House and Senate can change the number of Justices on the Supreme Court. The number is fixed by statute, not by the Constitution. It has ranged between 6 and 10 since 1789.
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DAMN  IT !   I miss decency.
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“President” Trump has made 4,229 false (lies) and misleading claims since his inauguration. (Washington Post). …………………………………………………………………   
WOULD ANYONE WANT their spouse to lie repeatedly ?, their child ?, mother ?, father ?, minister ?, child’s teacher ?,  coach ?, employer ?.  IF NOT, why would they support President Trump who is on record with telling 4.5 lies per day,  4,200 lies since his inauguration on January 20 ?. 
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Trump boasts about the stock market in his first 31 months as President, but the S&P 500 appreciated 149% during President Obama’s first 31 months in office, 2 ½ times as it advanced under Trump, and Obama inherited the worst stock market/economic collapse since the 1930s, Trump inherited a strong stock market and economic recovery.
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The U.S. Chamber of Commerce currently estimates the impact of Trump tariffs on the following states stand to be: Louisiana ($5.2 bil.), Washington ($5.7 bil.), Texas ($1.4 bil.), S. Carolina ($2.6 bil.), Illinois ($2.1 bil.), California ($4.0 bil.), Kentucky ($917 mil.), Michigan (842 mil.), Ohio ($826 mil.).
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Orwellian: George Orwell’s 1984 wretched society was controlled by denial of the truth,  the dissemination of  misinformation, propaganda, and surveillance, i.e., Big Brother is watching.    “Just remember what you are seeing  and what you are reading is not what’s happening.” Trump  told the VFW July 24
“The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears…” George Orwell’s  dystopian novel – “1984”  published in 1949.
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A recent Gallup poll shows  how  people polled  would vote if the election were held today
Democrats      30%
Republicans   26%
Independents 40%

The key here is twofold. The Democrats must get their vote out, which may be difficult in face of Republican voter suppression. Then too, they need to get a lot  of the Independent vote, which will be helped as Americans see the Trump administration gut treasured institutions, regulations designed to ensure a better environment in the future, healthcare, and undermine time-tested, valued global alliances while cultivating the favor of enemies.
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Special Counsel Robert Mueller  must comply with regulations, rules, procedures, and policies of the Department of Justice as set forth in 28 CFR 600. He can only be removed for misconduct, dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, or other good cause, including violation of the Department’s policy.
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What Trump and his base have in common: They both deplore the same people – people of color, the handicapped, liberals, foreigners.
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VOTES FLIPPED for TRUMP  in Key States in 2016
      Daily Kos’ Aldous Pennyfarthing (Pen name for Tom Breuer)  gave reasons in Alternet.org, July 27, why he thinks the Russians [or someone] flipped votes for Trump in 2016.
      The basis for this conclusion was comparing exit polls with actual outcome in North Carolina Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
 Pennsylvania: Exit polls Clinton 50.5 – Trump 46.1.  Result: Clinton 46.1 –   Trump 48.8.
Wisconsin: Exit poll Clinton 48.2 – Trump 44.3  Result: Clinton 47.6 – Trump 48.8.
North Carolina: Exit poll Clinton  48.6 – Trump 46.5. Result: Clinton 46.1 – Trump 49.9.
      An FOI suit by Bradley Moss (cybersecurity lawyer) brought against the government  revealed Russians hacked inside voting systems in seven big states.
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Wake up out there. These aren’t conservative Republicans, they are anarchists, extremists  who have wrested control of the Republican party over the last 20 years and are intent on a party rule with no checks and balances.  This is  a bloodless coup.
If  they can lock up control of both Houses, the Presidency, Supreme Court and strategic lower court appointments, and a major news media broadcaster, survival of our republic will depend on whose side the military and police forces take.
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 Sinclair Broadcast Group  (BEWARE !)   
      Sinclair Broadcast Group is using its clout as owner of  193 television stations in 80 markets as a lever to manipulate local station viewers’ minds pitching it’s right wing propaganda. Viewers tend to trust local stations programing over national networks.  A July 16, 2018 FCC decision denied Sinclair’s acquisition of the Tribune Broadcast Group, which would have expanded its reach into New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago markets
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 Sinclair Bank (no relation to the broadcast  group) has surfaced as a lender to Michael Cohen, Jared Kushner, his father and Trump.  Ivanka Trump no longer on board. 
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        Treason is defined by Article 3, section 3: Treason, as levying war against the U.S., or in adhering to its enemy, namely aid and comfort, also defined as any act that deliberately strengthens or tends to strengthen enemies of the U.S. or that weakens the power of the U.S. to resist and attack such enemies.
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TRUMP’S BASE:  Some voted for Trump because they always vote Republican. Then there are those whose opinions are based on emotional disorders, those who will never accept the truth no matter what (Confirmation Bias); those who accept bad behavior as the norm (Deviancy Down); and those who while stupid, ill informed who actually believe they are highly intelligent, competent (Dunning Krueger). These people don’t have enough knowledge to know they don’t have enough knowledge, i.e.,too dumb to know they are dumb.(alternet.com 7/23/18)
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July 19, 2018: Republicans refuse to renew election security funding over Russian hacking – Democrats livid, as all of us should be. 
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The Dept. of Justice charged a Russian national, Mariia Butina, of illegally trying to influence American politics using the NRA, religious organizations  as a means of gaining backchannel access to the highest levels of the Republican Party.  Mother Jones says  Butina acted as a covert Russian agent, an unregistered foreign agent.
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      Since Deputy Atty Gen’l Rod Rosenstein would not fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller,   assuming Trump first fired Rosenstein.
     On November 8, I noted Brian Benczkowski was nominated by President Trump in June [2017] to be U.S. Assistant Attorney General for the Criminal Division. Along party lines, he was confirmed by the Senate recently, raising the question would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein was fired and he  was appointed in his place. He said he would not recuse himself from  questions in the Mueller investigation.
     The big question mark here is that Benczkowski had represented Russia’s Alfa Bank at some point in the past and had no prosecutorial experience.  He had worked for Atty Gen’l Jeff Sessions and the Bush administration and was not opposed by Rosenstein.

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A “MALEVOLENT FOOL” – Lt. Col. , Ret’d, Ralph Peters, ex-Fox analyst referring to Trump.   Malevolent: evil, harmful, injurious.
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Un-American ! Trump claims writers of U.S. Constitution treated Him unfairly, adding we have the worst constitution writers in the world…Russia has better constitution writers than we do, says Trump . “I talked with Putin, and he said their constitution never gives him problems.” Andy Borowitz, (The Borowitz Report).
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      WE DON”T WANT TO GO THERE !  The Trump administration is taking the United States straight to a place none of us wants to be – civil unrest,  an extended recession, a fiscal crisis where we can’t pay our bills, ergo the need to slash healthcare, safety net programs, a host of programs that have improved our quality of life.
      This administration’s actions on trade (tariffs, TPP), the intentional divisiveness of America along racial lines, and abandonment of our long-time allies have opened the door for China to dominate the world, economically and militarily.  That’s Un-American.  This has to be stopped.
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Republican strategist, Steve Schmidt, leaves Republican Party after 29 years, saying the party is “corrupt, indecent and immoral,” and with a few exceptions  elected  Republicans are “feckless cowards who disgrace and dishonor the legacies of the party’s greatest leaders.” Others quitting Republican Party: George Will, “Morning” Joe Scarborough. To date, 35 senior Trump advisers have left.
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President Donald Trump is NOT pro-business, he’s pro-Trump
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TRUMP EXIT STRATEGY: The most important thing for King Donald is his image.  Currently he is scrambling to initiate as many perceived accomplishments as possible (taxes, anti-immigrant, anti-allies, deregulation, North Korea, Iran, ISIS, unemployment).
      This way, if he is impeached, defeated in 2020, or forced to resign, he can claim to have been the greatest president of all-time – he’ll tweet it relentlessly, deviancy-downed Americans will believe it and every network in the country, whores that they are, (including MSNBC and CNN) will scramble to cover his tweets.  IMHO: he won’t risk losing in 2020, just not run – declare he has accomplished his mission and walk away.
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POSSIBLE ! That the blue wave won’t happen in November.  Why? The American voter is still zoned out about what is happening – too busy with other stuff, not capable of  objectively analyzing issues accurately without bias.
     The result: The extremist Republicans and their president will run the economy, a constructive foreign relations policy, and America’s quality of life into the ground.  In order to get the American voter’s attention, we have to hit bottom first.
      That means an extended recession, a fiscal crisis (unable to pay bills), a 65% drop in the stock market and,  national unrest greater than that which the Vietnam War attracted.
       We are witnessing the unfolding of  the biggest scandal in our country’s history, including illegal financial transactions, vote tampering and  untethered collusion and obstruction of  justice at the highest level.  This may take years to unravel.
      Again, I say “possible,” not probable..  Probable would be all that but not as severe.
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Corporations got a 40% tax cut, John and Jane Q get a 1.2% – 1.8% cut, even so, Trump plans to introduce a “rescission package” to cut $15 billion in already approved spending on the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation program, as well as 30 other programs. The  U.S. House will likely approve his  rescission  package, the Senate may not.
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According to Bloomberg.com, 1,100 economists warn that Trump is repeating one of the biggest mistakes of the Great Depression – tariffs and trade protectionism. The warning came in a letter from the conservative-leaning National Taxpayers Union.
      China loves it !  Trump opened the door, China entered, capitalizing on Trump’s regressive “America First” mantra, with its far reaching Belt and Road outreach with investments encompassing infrastructure, education, construction materials, rail and hi-way, auto, real estate, power grid and iron and steel investments to 68 countries, 65% of the world’s population and 40% of global GDP.
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      Kim took Trump’s war with North Korea option off the table, so looks like Trump now has his sights set on IRAN – to please his base, of course, in time for the mid-terms, of course
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North Korea give up nuclear weapons ?  Never !  Kim wants a global stage, so does Trump, who will not risk being embarrassed by the little tyrant. Trump will bail.  He needs a villain to trash to please his base. Kim has what he wants.  I think Trump has been played like a harp. 
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Impeachment of Trump unlikely with this Republican House. Trump has surrounded himself with newly appointed Cabinet members, so Section 4 of the 25th amendment is not a reality.   What’s left ?  A deal with Mueller for his RESIGNATION ?
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Must Read: “Will Christian Nationalism Drive Trump’s Base to the Polls in November ?”  Truthout April 15, Bill Berkowitz. This explains why his base of Christians votes for an immoral person, one whose behavior is the antithesis of the teachings of Christ.
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Will Trump  Fire Mueller

      Trump can’t fire Mueller directly, it must be done by the Department of Justice.  Trump would have to find someone to do it.  Nixon did it in 1973 when he had to work through two attorney generals until  his solicitor general, Robert Bork fired Special Prosecutor Archibald Cox. 
      Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein isn’t going to do it, so Trump must find someone from DOJ , or someone outside who has already been confirmed by the Senate who will do it.         Philip Bump, Washington Post (WAPO) April 10, did a great job outlining possibilities in, “Why Trump can’t fire Mueller – at least not directly.”  I can only touch on a few of his points here.
       In his article, Georgetown University’s professor Paul Butler raises the interesting point that  firing Mueller may not be necessary if  Rosenstein is replaced by someone hostile to the Special Counsel’s investigation.  He would simply force a stall with lots of demands, even leak information to the White House.   
       REASONS NEEDED TO FIRE MUELLER: Trump would have to have  good reason to fire Mueller.  Grounds must be, misconduct, dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, or other good cause, including violation of policies of the Department of Justice, and failure to follow Justice Departments guidelines and violation of applicable canons of ethics.
       CAN TRUMP RESCIND  SPECIAL COUNSEL REGULATION ?  Yes, it’s possible but many legal hurdles  would make it difficult and possibly so time consuming as to make the action worthless. There is no clear cut answer. This would be decided in court, the legal ramifications just very complex.
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FISCAL CRISIS LOOMS IN FUTURE:  Headlines:“Federal debt primed to explode”….”U.S. Deficit to Surpass $1 Trillion Two Years Ahead of Estimates”….”This Year’s budget deficit to hit $804 B after tax cuts and spending hikes”….
       This is all a Republican scheme to justify massive spending cuts to social, health, educational  and safety net programs. It is called “Starving the Beast,” and will lead to debilitating and prolonged recession/bear market, increased crime, rioting and civil unrest.  Republicans set the stage with massive, unnecessary tax cuts and a big budget spend (see below: “Corporate Tax Cut Irresponsible”)
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Cambridge Analytica (now in bankruptcy) is center stage again. Palmer.com  reports  someone behind the scenes is trying to block  Britain’s  Channel 4 News from airing an expose  into Cambridge’s role in using  Facebook (FB) to influence voters to vote for Trump and not Clinton.  On Friday,  Facebook  banned Cambridge’s access.  Palmer speculates the Mercers are behind the  attempt to prevent Channel 4’s expose.  I was on  Cambridge’s case back on June 22, 2017,  noting that billionaire Robert Mercer was connected to Cambridge through Canada’s Aggregate IQ through an intellectual property agreement and worked to influence voting  in the Brexit referendum.  Aggregate is a data mining company.  While Aggregate denies any connection,  the story won’t go away. Palmer sees a connection between Cambridge and John Bolton’s SUPER PAC.  Palmer notes that UK Parliament is investigating  the connection between Cambridge and Brexit and documents referred to by Cambridge whistleblower Christopher Wylie reveal  the firm gave stolen Facebook  user data to Bolton’s PAC  (receiving stolen goods ?), though it is not known how Bolton used the data if his PAC even received it.  (See below: Mercer on the run ?) …………………………………………….
Remember the name Felix Sater, former business associate of Trump, convicted  Russian mafia money laundering figure, and key FBI informant.
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Another name to watch is Ted Malloch who Palmer.com reports was served a subpoena relating to the Trump/Russia probe.  Malloch is a U. S. citizen living in London with close tire to Roger Stone, Brexit leader Nigel Farage and the Trump campaign.  As noted above in Cambridge Analytica, there is a connection to parties involved in Brexit and Trump’s campaign.
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George Nader  has long-standing ties in the Mid-East and Washington over many years.  What appears to be important here is he is cooperating with the Mueller probe not as a wrongdoer, but as a source of information.  He has had ties with the Trump administration through Steve Bannon  and reportedly attended a meeting in the Seychelles Islands January 11, 2017 along with Blackwater founder and former Trump associate, Eric Prince, and Kirill Dmitriev head of a U.S. sanctioned investment firm with close ties to Putin.  Reportedly Nader represented United Arab Emirates’ Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan.
      I referred to the Seychilles meeting on April 5, 2017 noting  the Washington Post reported the meeting was intended to encourage Russia to curtail support for Iran and Syria (Trump wish list) in exchange for lifting U.S. sanctions on Russia.
We’ll see.
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“Protecting guns and profits have become more important than protecting the lives of young people” Henry A. Giroux, Truthout ,  March 4.
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Why are so many Americans beholden to guns ? It could be their sense of security was rocked by 9/11 plus the Great Recession/Bear Market.  Then it could be racial, a fear that people of different colors will eventually outnumber them, prompting  the need (in their paranoid minds) to stage a forceful change in governance (revolution).  This makes little sense, but from their point of  simplemindedness, they feel more secure with a dozen guns and cases of ammunition in house just in case.
     What these whackos don’t understand is they can’t use their guns outside of their homes for fear of injuring or killing an innocent person which not only sends them to jail, but opens them up to a lawsuit where they lose their stock portfolio, car, house and all those “blankies” that  go bang.  ………………………………………

 A quasi-fascist state would give Trump the untethered power he craves.
Read: The Ghost of Fascism in the Age of Trump
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/43529-the-ghost-of-fascism-in-the-age-of-trump
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U.S. Ranking globally and domestically is plunging under Trump
      Global approval of U.S. leadership from 134 countries has plunged to 30% from 48% in just a year.  Clearly, Trump isn’t making America Great Again in the eyes of all other countries.  The downside of this is we need the support of those countries.  Our nationalistic policies are opening doors throughout the world for China. A Gallup poll shows Germany replacing the U.S. as the top-rated power in the world.
      Under Trump, the United States has dropped to 11th place in the Bloomberg Innovation Index, which in addition  to  R&D spending, includes post secondary, or tertiary, education-efficiency category, which includes the share of new science and engineering graduates. Value-added manufacturing also dropped.  South Korea ranked first, followed by Sweden, Singapore, Germany, Switzerland, Japan, Finland, Denmark, France, Israel.
       Also under Trump, Americans’ trust in institutions (government, companies and the  media) has suffered the greatest loss on record according to a poll conducted by Edelman New York. The poll, including 33,000 “informed” individuals showed the U.S. dropping to 43 out of a possible 100, down 23 points in a year.  He is a human wrecking ball.
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CORPORATE TAX CUT IRRESPONSIBLE
“It's pure fantasy to think that the tax bill will lead to significantly higher wages and growth, as Republicans have promised,” Bloomberg continued. Had Congress actually listened to executives, or economists who study these issues carefully, it might have realized that. The tax bill is an economically indefensible blunder that will harm our future” –   Michael Bloomberg – billionaire business man former mayor NYC

      I don’t doubt some corporations need, and deserve a tax cut, but to reduce the rate from 35% to 21% is inexcusable, reckless, unjustifiable, and outright subversive to the best interests of America.
      Corporate income taxes comprise 9% of federal government receipts. If corporate taxes are slashed by 40% (from 35% to 21%), the government’s receipts from corporations are reduced by 3.6% from 9%.
      Individual income tax payments comprise 47% of  federal government receipts. At this point, I have no idea how much of an impact  Congress’ tax cuts will have on this source of federal revenues, but it stands to be significant.
      The Republican administration expects economic growth will be triggered by a sudden change in heart by corporations to abandon stock buybacks and the repatriation of billions stashed abroad to plug the big hole left in federal receipts by tax cuts with a surge in hiring and capital expenditures.
      That assumption is flawed. For one, why would a corporation  go on a hiring and cap-ex spending spree  with an economic expansion that  is 8-1/2 years old, 3 years longer (73%) than the average over 65 years (1945 – 2009).
      For another, are they naïve enough to assume there will be no recessions within the next 10 years ?
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Mercer on the run ?  Bannon and Breitbart bankroller, Robert Mercer is rapidly severing financial ties to Breitbart News and support of Steve Bannon and alt-right’s Milo Yiannopoulos. Mercer was a major supporter of Sen. Ted Cruz’s effort to gain the Republican nomination last year, but switched his allegiance to Trump when he won the nomination.
      In my March 21 post, I wrote, “Years from now, I suspect Mercer will be relaxing at his Long Island waterfront retreat, Owl’s Nest, or on his 200-foot yacht, Sea Owl, and look back over his illustrious career tarnished  by one regret – he backed the biggest con job in our nation’s history.”
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Red states In need of Fed government help the most
Six states (Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Utah, Wisconsin),  are planning to require poverty stricken people on Medicaid  to get jobs  or lose the coverage. Maine, Utah and Wisconsin want to put a time limit on coverage, the latter wants to drug-test people. Excluded: People with long-tern disabilities, the elderly, and children.  Isn’t it bad enough these people are in poverty ? 
      Vox Media reports that 9.8 million Medicaid recipients  don’t have jobs  due to: Illness/disabled (35%), retired (8%), taking care of home or family (28%), going to school (18%), cannot find work (8%). The remaining 60.2 million Americans on Medicaid work full-time of part-time.  I’m not sure what’s the Republican beef here.
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TRUMP’S PARDON POWER
     The President has the power to grant conditional pardons; to commute sentences; remit fines and forfeitures; and grant amnesty. This power can be exercised at any time after the offense has been committed, before conviction of after. Pardons cannot be limited by or controlled by legislative action (US legal.com)
Expect Trump to attempt to pardon anyone he wants, including himself. It’s a way out of facing responsibility very much like dodging the draft. Like when he justified his numerous bankruptcies, saying he only used U.S. laws to his advantage.  Well, “pardons” are his prerogative, in many, not all cases. He would take advantage of whatever loophole to avoid consequences, sort of like dodging the draft, or did I already say that ?
     The President cannot pardon people for “state” crimes, and it is doubtful he can pardon himself.
      Can the Mueller investigation survive Mueller’s firing ?
Slate.com’s July 21 article, “Trump can’t Escape the States,” says “YES.”
1-A state [NY] could hire Mueller and team.
2-State attorneys general could use their quo warranto power to investigate Trump’s organization for fraud and money laundering from Russian sources.
3-A Congressional committee (Senate Intelligence Committee) could hire Mueller or create a Joint select Committee.
4-Congress could pass a new veto-proof independent counsel statute.
FINALLY: If Trump resigns and Pence takes over, Pence could pardon Trump, as Ford did Nixon.
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THE GREAT AMERICAN EXPERIMENT UNDER SEIGE:  Not since the Civil War has the spirit and future of our nation been at such great risk, from within.  This  administration, Congress and U.S. Supreme Court is surgically dismembering  efforts over many years to ensure the safety  and well being of “all” Americans.
     The sooner, Americans recognize these are not genuine Republican conservatives, but extremists determined dismantle that which has been achieved over the years and replace it with “their” brand  of a  quasi-fascist state.  Ben Franklin was right when asked what kind of government  the Founding Fathers had given us.  “A Republic, if you can keep it,” was his response.
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TRUMP looking for a “Get Out Of Jail Free Card if the Feds close in?”
    Why not, he dodged military service with 5 deferments  during the Vietnam era (1964 – 1970).
     Reportedly, he has asked advisers about his power to pardon family members and himself  relating to Mueller’s investigation.
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WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE INVESTIGATION IS COMPLETED ? If the Special Counselor  concludes it is “necessary and appropriate” he is authorized to prosecute federal crimes arising out of the investigation, which he does after submitting a report to the attorney general explaining his reasons.

REASONS NEEDED TO FIRE MUELLER:  Misconduct,  dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, good cause (??), violation of Department policies.
WOULD MUELLER BE REPLACED ? Unclear. If the Democrats controlled Congress they could appoint another Special Counselor
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  “Connect the Dots.” This investigation is open-ended. These are people were part of the Trump team, or in a position to know information relating to activities before or after the 2016 election, though  not necessarily in any way guilty of any wrongdoing.
       Nigel Farage – President Trump- Hope Hicks, Jeffrey Sessions – Robert Mercer – Cambridge Analytics – Bannon- Carter Page – Kushner (Jared and Ivanka) – Eric Prince – Donald, Jr.  and Eric Trump – Wilbur Ross –  Michael Cohen – Ezra Cohen Watnick – Michael T. Flynn – Michael G. Flynn ( son)  – JD Gordon  –  Christopher Steele – Michael Caputo -Breitbart News – Roger Stone – Julian Assange – Paul Manafort – Rick Gates – Jill Stein – Sam Clovis –  Kellyanne and George Conway –Dana Rohrabacher – Bill Browder – Peter W. Smith (deceased: suicide), Paul Behrends – Brad Parscale – Sam Nunberg – Dan Scavino – Keith Schiller –  Alex Van Der waan – Ted Malloch -Boris Epshteyn, Ike Kaveladze, and  Russia’s alfa Group – Felix Sater – Rob Goldstone – alfa Group – Emin Agalarov – Sergey Gorkov –  Sergey Kislyak, ambassador to the U.S., Natalia Veselnitskaya, Oleg Deripaska all connect directly or indirectly to the Trump/Russia investigation and some have a connection to Brexit, as well.
      According to the “Observer,” Mercer’s Cambridge Analytica was connected with Canada’s AggregateIQ through an intellectual property agreement and worked together on the Brexit referendum. Aggregate is also a data mining company. While Mercer was a big supporter of Trump, there is no known connection between AggregateIQ and Trump’s campaign staff.
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 REMOVING TRUMP FROM  OFFICE
Can Section 4 of the 25th Amendment, U.S. Constitution – Remove Trump ?
      It’s a stretch.  The key for his removal is ”that he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.”  Section 4 mentions nothing  that he is unfit, delusional, unbalanced, crazy,  impulsive, irrational, impaired, sociopathic, psychopathic, narcissistic.
      That would be the threshold that would have to be crossed if Trump is removed from office via Section 4 of the 25th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. There is no precedent

      It isn’t just Democrats, liberals, moderates and reasonable people who find Trump caustic, and dangerous, conservatives like George Will, David Brooks and Ross Douthart are also urging his removal.
      First, there are four ways to get rid of Trump – death, resignation, impeachment and Section 4 of the 25th Amendment.
      The procedure employing the 25th Amendment requires the Vice President and the majority of the cabinet of 15 (8) to vote to remove the president. They would submit their declaration in writing to the President pro tempore ( Sen. Orrin Hatch) and Speaker of the House (Paul Ryan) that the president is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, and the Vice President will immediately assume to office as acting president.
      However, the president may contend the move by submitting his own letter to the President pro tempore and Speaker of the House, that he believes he is capable of performing his duties, in which case he will resume the office of presidency.
       The Vice President and Cabinet members may then resubmit their declaration at which point Congress would vote within 48 hours if in session. If not, Congress  will act within 21 days where a two-thirds vote would be required to remove  him.  
        However, as “Business Insider.com” noted on Jan. 9, 2018, Trump could simply fire the Cabinet members who voted to oust him from office.
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IMPEACHMENT
      A  Consult/Politico poll shows 43% of Americans want Congress to begin procedures for the impeachment of President Trump.
      The U.S. Constitution  enables Congress to remove a president for “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.” Initially, the House votes on one or more articles of impeachment- if a majority vote is reached, he is impeached.  BUT, impeachment only means indictment. The Senate holds a trial overseen by the chief justice and Supreme Court. A group of House members serve as prosecutors and the Senate as jurors. If two-thirds of the senators find the president guilty, he is removed from office and the vice president takes over.
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Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com
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George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Only the Fed Can Slow the Bear

INVESTORS first read.com – Daily edge before the open 
DJIA: 24,464
S&P 500: 2,649
Nasdaq Com.:6,972
Russell 2000: 1,488
Friday,  November 23,  2018  9:05 a.m.

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gbifr79@gmail.com

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This volatility is EXACTLY what I meant when on December 27, 2017, I Warned:
“2018: The Wildest One in Years.” 
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“No one is bearish, and that’s BEARISH…Odds favor a 12%-18% correction” – Jan. 22, 2018: DJIA:26,214. 
(A 14-day 12.2% correction started 4 days later.)
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Trump – a human wrecking ball (1/3/17)…….and a pathological liar !
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What’s so Christian about favoring the rich over the poor ?
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“Accuse the other side of that which you are guilty.”
                                         Joseph Goebbels, Nazi propaganda minister.
Damn it ! I miss decency
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WARNING ! When the market gets hammered, expect the Trump administration and Wall Streeters to crank out anything that resembles good news that could stop the carnage.  Ignore them. This is often the trigger for bear market rallies that suck investors in before the next move down.
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Market Status: 
         The stock market must deal with the likelihood of a constitutional crisis, prompted by new indictments of Trump team members and their involvement in the 2016 presidential election, and especially if Trump himself was involved.
        So far, it does not appear the Street cares what happens in Washington, but the uncertainty that would increase with the potentially biggest political scandal of all time combined with a looming recession, rising interest rates, a trade war and a possible military conflict in the Mid-East or North Korea will ensure a continuation of the market’s demise.
       Only a change in Fed policy, or statements to that effect, can slow to erosion of prices.
        I have warned of a recession for months, and I am not alone (See Shilling below). I don’t think individuals, corporations or our federal government is ready for a downturn.
        Odds strongly indicate we have seen the highs for the 2009 – 2018  bull market.
       The case against that is that the six month period between November 1 and May 1 offers the best opportunity to make money in the stock market, a highly consistent seasonal phenom discovered many years ago by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.
        Could this time around be an exception ?  Or, maybe the current decline has further to go, but rebounds  by May.   Then too, October has hosted the beginning of bull markets for the S&P 500 in 1987, 1990, 1998, , and 2002.
        Conclusion: I think we are in a bear market with a recession just around the corner. The 2007 – 2009 bear market bottom came in March the same month bear market bottoms came in 1978 and 1980.
        Bear markets are official after a 20% decline in the S&P 500. October’s decline was only 11.5%. I think this one will have to play out month by month with no predictable bottom foreseeable at this time.
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 Economic Status: Late stage expansion with recession starting in late 2019. Bull markets hit peak 6 to 12 months ahead of recessions. Republicans were in White House in 9 of  the last 10 recessions. Their rosy projections ignore the likelihood of a recession within a year to 18 months. Housing and auto industries already in recession. The crunch can gain momentum ahead of schedule. U.S. fiscal crisis looms 2-3 years out.
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TECHNICAL OBSERVATIONS FOR “TRADERS” FAVORITES
While a high-volume selling climax in the big-name growth stocks Tuesday appears to have marked an end to their three-month crunch, weakness continues in pre-market trading.
       All gapped at the open  on the upside Wednesday, but ran into a wall of selling in the first hour of trading.
       The key to the direction for these stocks lies in early trading today. If buyers rush in, expect a strong technical rally.  If not, they will test Tuesday’s lows.  

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Facebook (FB: 135) Down 40% from its 52-week high, FB’s rally off heavy volume sell off Tuesday did not follow through Wednesday. Resistance starts at 1,545.  Weak close could be due to Thanksgiving  holiday.
Risk: 123-125.
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Amazon (AMZN: 1,517) Tested, and temporarily broke recent October low
,  before rebounding from a high-volume plunge to 1415. Wednesday rally failed to hold. Resistance now 1,550. Risk: 1,285 in ugly bear market..
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Netflix (NFLX: 262)  Classic “Head & Shoulders Top” with massive overhead supply starting at 296. Spiked down to 250 Tuesday before rebounding.   Hit wall at 276  well below my targeted resistance level of 250. Still under pressure. Risk: 209
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Alphabet (GOOG: 1037).  Successfully tested the October lows  and rebounded to form  a double bottom pattern. Hit a wall at 1,048, short of projected resistance of 1,059. Sellers still there.  Risk: 950
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Apple (AAPL: 176)   Downtrend continues with some support 165-170.  Ran into resistance at 180. Pattern unattractive, needs a base of support. Risk: 158
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 Note: support/resistance levels change frequently.
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THE MARKET TODAY

         The market poised to open sharply lower. Buyers better show in the second hour of trading or it could get ugly.
          A wipeout today (DJIA down 600 points) followed by another one Monday in early trading would set the stage for a trader’s rally Monday or at the open Tuesday.

What could change the picture ?
         The Fed !  It  could opt to change interest rate policy to a less restrictive tone, which would confirm my belief the Fed thinks we are heading into a recession.
          The 2009 – 2018 bull market is becoming undone, piece by piece. This is what happens in early stage bear markets – the dominos begin to tumble, each tumble driving stock prices lower. 
      The S&P 500 is only down 9% from the October peak. At a minimum, a bear market drops 20%.  That would take the S&P 500 down to 2,352  and the DJIA down to 21,560.
        But that is the minimum criteria for a bear market.  This one stands to drop well in excess of 30%.  It all depends on what new negatives hit the market at lower levels.
       The looming possibility Special Counsel Robert Mueller will indict key Trump administration individuals, as well as Wikileaks founder Julian Assange indicates the investigation has entered its final phase….and it won’t be pretty.
       The pattern here has similarities with Nixon’s Watergate scandal, which contributed to a recession/bear market along with the OPEC oil embargo.
       Today’s equivalent to the oil embargo is our trade war.
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      TECHNICAL OBSERVATION:
       Perhaps the market’s inept attempt to rebound Wednesday after a high-volume sell off  was related to the Thanksgiving Day holiday, big hitters taking off for an extended weekend.
       We had a gap open  on the upside Wednesday, but little change by the end of the day. The rally fell short of expectations indicating the Street is in no hurry to buy at lower prices.  Not Good !

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SUPPORT “today:  DJIA:24,256; S&P 500:2,635; Nasdaq Comp.:6,919
RESISTANCE “today”: DJIA:24,548; S&P 500:2,664: Nasdaq Comp.:6,987
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Technical Note: Frequently, there is what I refer to as a mid-afternoon counter move (2:30 – 3:00 where the market rallies or declines against the prevailing trend for the day.   This can be a fake out for investors thinking the market has turned (up or down).
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        A. Gary Shilling  just turned bearish in his November issue, headlining his issue of “INSUGHT“ with “Looming Recession ?”   I have tracked Shilling for decades. He nailed the 2007 – 2009 Great Recession Bear Market before anyone else. For him to suddenly turn negative is  a shocker.  He details his reasons in a 50-page analysis that  is overwhelming in detail and backed up with stats and graphs. No one in my experience has more economic/investing integrity than Shilling. 
 
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IMPORTANT NOTE:
>
Through September, this bull market is 116 months old, or 3.5 times longer than the average of the last  15  bull markets..
>Bear markets start 6 – 12 months ahead of the onset of a recession.  
>Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House
>The current economic expansion has lasted 123 months. That’s 65 months (2.1x) longer than the average expansion (58.4 months) going back to 1945.
>Of the 10 recessions since 1950,the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was 3.8 Months.
> Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months. 
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Bear Market Perspective

      Officially, we are not in a bear market until the S&P 500 declines 20% (2,352).  That would translate into DJIA 21,560 – “ouch” !
       That’s the minimum drop for a bear, but the last two bears crushed the S&P 500 by 57% (2007-2009) and 50% (2000-2002).  
My bear market target would be declines of
      DJIA: 18,500 (-31.4%)
      S&P 500 :  2,150 (-27.0%)
      Nasdaq Comp.:5,200 (-36.1%)
      But, depending on what new negatives hit the market when it gets down there, the bear market could reach much, much  lower levels.
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EARNINGS GROWTH MYTH:
       The Street is counting on earnings growth to reduce the overvaluation of equities.   Look again.

       A 20% increase in S&P 500 earnings this year will  be tough to beat next year.  The quarter versus year ago quarters in 2019 will make poor reading going up against the 2018 earnings, possibly earnings growth around  5%. But the Street is not factoring in the likelihood of a recession, which could mean negative growth.
       At times, politics has little impact on the big  picture. This time is different.

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BULLISH CASE
      A sharp increase in corporate earnings is what the bulls are relying on to power the market higher.
      Q2 earnings increased 25.0% over a year ago.
      Thomson Reuters projects Q3’s increase in earnings to  hit 20.5% and Q4 18.0%.
      However 2019 is a different story with earnings increases of Q1: +7.0%, Q2: +5.1%, Q3: +5.9% and Q4: +3.9%, that averages out to +5.4%.
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BEARISH CASE
RISING INTEREST RATES:
      >The Fed is persistently raising its benchmark interest rate (federal funds), as well as reducing its inflated balance sheet,  which will drive other rates higher, which will adversely impact interest sensitive industries.  . 
      >The 10-year treasury has been rising steadily and now stands at 3.09%.
      > The yield curve is flattening as short-term treasuries rise faster than long-tern governments just another warning sign of impending recession.
 OVERVALUED MARKET
      > The onset of bear markets have led the beginning of recessions by 8.5 months going back to 1956, so don’t look for a recession to signal a bear market. The longest lead time was 13 months (1968 – 1969) The “mode” (most frequent) is 12 months.
       > If companies are buying back their own stock at a record clip, pushing stocks higher, why then are insiders selling $8 of stock for every $1 of stock they buy ?
       .> Companies took advantage of low interest rates to load up on debt in recent years for acquisitions and to buy back their own stock. Excluding banks, the tally is $6.3trillion. The downside of this comes when these companies will need to refinance this debt at higher interest rates when it comes due.
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       > The S&P 500 price to sales ratio at 2.30 is 40% higher than in 2007 before the devastating bear market, and is even higher than in March 2000 before the dot-com bubble burst leading to a bear market. Both bear markets dropped 50%.
       > The Shiller P/E is 31.5  times earnings versus a mean of 16.6.  Shiller’s P/E is based on  inflation adjusted earnings over 10 years.
       > The Total Market Capitalization to GDP  stands at 147.3%, anything above 115% is  considered “overvalued.”
        > Thompson Reuters reports the S&P 500 sells at 18.1 times earnings and 16.2 times a year from now. All this versus a 10-year average of 14.3.
AGING BULL MARKET:
       > The bull market is now  nine years and six months old (115 months).  That’s 3.5 times the average of the last 15 bull markets.
AGING ECONOMIC EXPANSION:
      > Republicans – the recession party. Nine of last 10 recession have been with a Republican in the White House.  Odds favor Trump will make 10 for 11.
      > The current economic expansion has lasted 112 months. That’s 53 months (1.9 x) longer than the average expansion going back to 1945.  Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House.
      > Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months. 
      > Housing stocks have been in a prolonged slump since January. The iShares  home construction ETF has dropped 20.5%, as interest rates rise. Not only is it  major employer, its health affects other industries, especially furniture and appliances..
      > Household debt increased for the 16th straight quarter to 13.3 trillion, that’s 19%  above the post-financial-crisis low.
      > Jamie Dimon, CEO J.P. Morgan Chase,  thinks the benchmark  10-yearTreasury note , now 2.95%, should be 5%. The rate impacts lending for autos, mortgages and businesses.
      > Personal loans have soared   18% to  a record 120 billion, Personal savings as percent of disposable income at 3%, down from 9% in 2012.
      > Low interest rates have encouraged US companies to go on a debt binge, amassing  $6.3 trillion. With rates on the increase, refinancing will get more costly, according to S&P analyst, Andrew Chang, who points out that this amounts to $8 for every $1 in cash.
      > Recently, 1,100 economists WARN Trump is repeating biggest mistakes of Great Depression – tariffs, trade protectionism, according to conservative National Taxpayers’ Union.
      > Former Fed Chair, Ben Bernanke, says economy to fall off a cliff in 2020, thanks to the $1.5 trillion corporate and individual tax cut and $300 billion increase in spending.              
TRUMP’S TRADE WAR TANTRUM
      > Trump’s tariff tiff costing  US companies a bundle:  The damage extends to manufacturers, input suppliers, fishermen, and numerous businesses who are finding it more difficult to sell abroad.
      > Today’s businesses are complex, especially supply chains that can involve a thousand parts that make up a whole product, many of which are sourced from different countries, sometimes crossing back and forth across the same border a number of times.
      >  Trump is considering leaving World Trade Organization (WTO).
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IMPLODING:
      So far, the stock market has not wavered in face of the increasing likelihood, Trump and many present and former associates are in legal trouble.
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POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET

SUPREME STUPIDITY !
Trump vs. Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts.  Rough guess here, but I would say Roberts thumps Trump every time they get in the ring.
Trump bashed  a decision by the Ninth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for ruling that the administration must consider claims of asylum regardless of where migrants cross the border, which rejected Trump’s wishes. He accused the court of bias blaming an  “Obama judge” for the ruling.  Roberts retaliated claiming the Court doesn’t have Obama, Bush, Clinton, or Trump judges.  …that an independent judiciary is something we should be thankful for.
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COWARDS ? Now is the time for the Republican-controlled Senate to do the American thing and protect the Special Counsel from  President Trump’s effort to undermine it.  This is no longer politics in general, this is about whether or not we are a nation of laws. Failure to do that, and I am convinced certain members of Congress are constitutional anarchists determined to destroy our republic.
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Rogue wave…. or monstrous blue wave ?
Real Americans are rising up to save our republic, and all the quality of life things worked and died for over the years.   After 2020, the right wing Republicans will be irrelevant, forced to climb back under the rock from which they emerged.
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What in the  Hell is wrong with us ?  These Central American peoples of all ages are willing to trek thousands of miles to attempt to enter America, and we are sending troops to back up border control to deny them legal entrance.  SHAME on our President, the selfish Republican party.  By their admirable efforts, they are demonstrating the kind of resolve we want in our workforce.
Christian ?   No, freaking way.  Our leaders are the epitome of  the  anti-Christ !  Hypocrites and un-American at heart ! 
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Trump has proposed a  5 percent budget cut for each Cabinet agency yesterday.
     Wait just a minute !
Didn’t Congress pass a $1.3trillion catchall spending bill earlier in the year after passing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in December, which gave corporations a 40% tax cut, and was skewed heavily in favor of big earners with the rest of the country getting a cut around 1%.
      According to the Treasury Dept. the federal deficit for FY Sept. 30 was $779 billion, up 17% from a year ago primarily due to the shortfall in revenues from corporations as a result of their huge tax cuts.
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Bath Iron Works (Maine) Gets $3.9 billion Navy Award 7 days before Sen. Collin’s “Yes” Vote for Kavanaugh
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      Reecntly, Bill Palmer, PalmerReports.com, gave his reason why Nikki Haley resigned from her post as United Nations Ambassador.

       The story was carried in more detail by the Business Insider.com, which points to her resignation one day after Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) requested the State Dept. investigate her acceptance of seven free flights aboard private jets  from three South Carolina business men.
      While she listed the flights on her 2017 financial disclosure, the information was incomplete according to CREW and did not qualify for an exemption.
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       Breaking: Concern that right wingers are set to rewrite the United States Constitution via an Article V Convention, or Amendments Convention, called by two-thirds of the state legislatures (34).  A three-quarter vote is required for an amendment to become part of the Constitution.   Reportedly, right wingers want to convert our system of government to a confederation of “supreme” states, essentially minimizing the present amount of federal control.
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Trump in hot water on tax evasion and the legitimacy of his inheritance ?
We’ll see !!
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     Since Deputy Atty Gen’l Rod Rosenstein would not fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller, assuming Trump first fired Rosenstein.
     On November 8, 2017, I noted Brian Benczkowski was nominated by President Trump in June [2017] to be U.S. Assistant Attorney General for the Criminal Division. Along party lines, he was confirmed by the Senate recently, raising the question would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein was fired and he  was appointed in his place. He said he would not recuse himself from  questions in the Mueller investigation.
     The big question mark here is that Benczkowski had represented Russia’s Alfa Bank at some point in the past and had no prosecutorial experience.  He had worked for Atty Gen’l Jeff Sessions and the Bush administration and was not opposed by Rosenstein.
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     Palmerreport.com believes Roger Stone will be the next person indicted/arrested by Special Counsel Robert Mueller.
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  As if Trump did not have enough problems, here comes Allen Weisselberg, long-time CFO of the Trump Organization and now a recipient of “immunity” from  the Attorney General of New York.
       This is especially significant, notes PalmerReports.com, since he is testifying about state level charges in addition to federal charges, which cannot be nullified by a Trump pardon.
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      NO ATTORNEY CLIENT PRIVILEGE: Palmerreport.com reminds readers that Trump has NO attorney-Client privilege with Ty Cobb who he hired on July 14, 2017 to help with the Russia scandal. To save personal funds, Trump put Cobb on the White House payroll, so Cobb is free to disclose any information Special Counsel Mueller wants him to.
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  I expect Attorney General Sessions to be fired or to resign any day now.  That puts Deputy Atty. Gen. Rod Rosenstein in jeopardy.  Will Brian Benszkowski be moved in the fill the void. Would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein were fired ?
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HEADS UP !   A majority vote in both the House and Senate can change the number of Justices on the Supreme Court. The number is fixed by statute, not by the Constitution. It has ranged between 6 and 10 since 1789.
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DAMN  IT !   I miss decency.
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“President” Trump has made 4,229 false (lies) and misleading claims since his inauguration. (Washington Post). …………………………………………………………………   
WOULD ANYONE WANT their spouse to lie repeatedly ?, their child ?, mother ?, father ?, minister ?, child’s teacher ?,  coach ?, employer ?.  IF NOT, why would they support President Trump who is on record with telling 4.5 lies per day,  4,200 lies since his inauguration on January 20 ?. 
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Trump boasts about the stock market in his first 31 months as President, but the S&P 500 appreciated 149% during President Obama’s first 31 months in office, 2 ½ times as it advanced under Trump, and Obama inherited the worst stock market/economic collapse since the 1930s, Trump inherited a strong stock market and economic recovery.
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The U.S. Chamber of Commerce currently estimates the impact of Trump tariffs on the following states stand to be: Louisiana ($5.2 bil.), Washington ($5.7 bil.), Texas ($1.4 bil.), S. Carolina ($2.6 bil.), Illinois ($2.1 bil.), California ($4.0 bil.), Kentucky ($917 mil.), Michigan (842 mil.), Ohio ($826 mil.).
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Orwellian: George Orwell’s 1984 wretched society was controlled by denial of the truth,  the dissemination of  misinformation, propaganda, and surveillance, i.e., Big Brother is watching.    “Just remember what you are seeing  and what you are reading is not what’s happening.” Trump  told the VFW July 24
“The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears…” George Orwell’s  dystopian novel – “1984”  published in 1949.
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A recent Gallup poll shows  how  people polled  would vote if the election were held today
Democrats      30%
Republicans   26%
Independents 40%

The key here is twofold. The Democrats must get their vote out, which may be difficult in face of Republican voter suppression. Then too, they need to get a lot  of the Independent vote, which will be helped as Americans see the Trump administration gut treasured institutions, regulations designed to ensure a better environment in the future, healthcare, and undermine time-tested, valued global alliances while cultivating the favor of enemies.
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Special Counsel Robert Mueller  must comply with regulations, rules, procedures, and policies of the Department of Justice as set forth in 28 CFR 600. He can only be removed for misconduct, dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, or other good cause, including violation of the Department’s policy.
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What Trump and his base have in common: They both deplore the same people – people of color, the handicapped, liberals, foreigners.
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VOTES FLIPPED for TRUMP  in Key States in 2016
      Daily Kos’ Aldous Pennyfarthing (Pen name for Tom Breuer)  gave reasons in Alternet.org, July 27, why he thinks the Russians [or someone] flipped votes for Trump in 2016.
      The basis for this conclusion was comparing exit polls with actual outcome in North Carolina Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
 Pennsylvania: Exit polls Clinton 50.5 – Trump 46.1.  Result: Clinton 46.1 –   Trump 48.8.
Wisconsin: Exit poll Clinton 48.2 – Trump 44.3  Result: Clinton 47.6 – Trump 48.8.
North Carolina: Exit poll Clinton  48.6 – Trump 46.5. Result: Clinton 46.1 – Trump 49.9.
      An FOI suit by Bradley Moss (cybersecurity lawyer) brought against the government  revealed Russians hacked inside voting systems in seven big states.
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Wake up out there. These aren’t conservative Republicans, they are anarchists, extremists  who have wrested control of the Republican party over the last 20 years and are intent on a party rule with no checks and balances.  This is  a bloodless coup.
If  they can lock up control of both Houses, the Presidency, Supreme Court and strategic lower court appointments, and a major news media broadcaster, survival of our republic will depend on whose side the military and police forces take.
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 Sinclair Broadcast Group  (BEWARE !)   
      Sinclair Broadcast Group is using its clout as owner of  193 television stations in 80 markets as a lever to manipulate local station viewers’ minds pitching it’s right wing propaganda. Viewers tend to trust local stations programing over national networks.  A July 16, 2018 FCC decision denied Sinclair’s acquisition of the Tribune Broadcast Group, which would have expanded its reach into New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago markets
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 Sinclair Bank (no relation to the broadcast  group) has surfaced as a lender to Michael Cohen, Jared Kushner, his father and Trump.  Ivanka Trump no longer on board. 
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        Treason is defined by Article 3, section 3: Treason, as levying war against the U.S., or in adhering to its enemy, namely aid and comfort, also defined as any act that deliberately strengthens or tends to strengthen enemies of the U.S. or that weakens the power of the U.S. to resist and attack such enemies.
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TRUMP’S BASE:  Some voted for Trump because they always vote Republican. Then there are those whose opinions are based on emotional disorders, those who will never accept the truth no matter what (Confirmation Bias); those who accept bad behavior as the norm (Deviancy Down); and those who while stupid, ill informed who actually believe they are highly intelligent, competent (Dunning Krueger). These people don’t have enough knowledge to know they don’t have enough knowledge, i.e.,too dumb to know they are dumb.(alternet.com 7/23/18)
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July 19, 2018: Republicans refuse to renew election security funding over Russian hacking – Democrats livid, as all of us should be. 
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The Dept. of Justice charged a Russian national, Mariia Butina, of illegally trying to influence American politics using the NRA, religious organizations  as a means of gaining backchannel access to the highest levels of the Republican Party.  Mother Jones says  Butina acted as a covert Russian agent, an unregistered foreign agent.
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      Since Deputy Atty Gen’l Rod Rosenstein would not fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller,   assuming Trump first fired Rosenstein.
     On November 8, I noted Brian Benczkowski was nominated by President Trump in June [2017] to be U.S. Assistant Attorney General for the Criminal Division. Along party lines, he was confirmed by the Senate recently, raising the question would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein was fired and he  was appointed in his place. He said he would not recuse himself from  questions in the Mueller investigation.
     The big question mark here is that Benczkowski had represented Russia’s Alfa Bank at some point in the past and had no prosecutorial experience.  He had worked for Atty Gen’l Jeff Sessions and the Bush administration and was not opposed by Rosenstein.

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A “MALEVOLENT FOOL” – Lt. Col. , Ret’d, Ralph Peters, ex-Fox analyst referring to Trump.   Malevolent: evil, harmful, injurious.
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Un-American ! Trump claims writers of U.S. Constitution treated Him unfairly, adding we have the worst constitution writers in the world…Russia has better constitution writers than we do, says Trump . “I talked with Putin, and he said their constitution never gives him problems.” Andy Borowitz, (The Borowitz Report).
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      WE DON”T WANT TO GO THERE !  The Trump administration is taking the United States straight to a place none of us wants to be – civil unrest,  an extended recession, a fiscal crisis where we can’t pay our bills, ergo the need to slash healthcare, safety net programs, a host of programs that have improved our quality of life.
      This administration’s actions on trade (tariffs, TPP), the intentional divisiveness of America along racial lines, and abandonment of our long-time allies have opened the door for China to dominate the world, economically and militarily.  That’s Un-American.  This has to be stopped.
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Republican strategist, Steve Schmidt, leaves Republican Party after 29 years, saying the party is “corrupt, indecent and immoral,” and with a few exceptions  elected  Republicans are “feckless cowards who disgrace and dishonor the legacies of the party’s greatest leaders.” Others quitting Republican Party: George Will, “Morning” Joe Scarborough. To date, 35 senior Trump advisers have left.
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President Donald Trump is NOT pro-business, he’s pro-Trump
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TRUMP EXIT STRATEGY: The most important thing for King Donald is his image.  Currently he is scrambling to initiate as many perceived accomplishments as possible (taxes, anti-immigrant, anti-allies, deregulation, North Korea, Iran, ISIS, unemployment).
      This way, if he is impeached, defeated in 2020, or forced to resign, he can claim to have been the greatest president of all-time – he’ll tweet it relentlessly, deviancy-downed Americans will believe it and every network in the country, whores that they are, (including MSNBC and CNN) will scramble to cover his tweets.  IMHO: he won’t risk losing in 2020, just not run – declare he has accomplished his mission and walk away.
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POSSIBLE ! That the blue wave won’t happen in November.  Why? The American voter is still zoned out about what is happening – too busy with other stuff, not capable of  objectively analyzing issues accurately without bias.
     The result: The extremist Republicans and their president will run the economy, a constructive foreign relations policy, and America’s quality of life into the ground.  In order to get the American voter’s attention, we have to hit bottom first.
      That means an extended recession, a fiscal crisis (unable to pay bills), a 65% drop in the stock market and,  national unrest greater than that which the Vietnam War attracted.
       We are witnessing the unfolding of  the biggest scandal in our country’s history, including illegal financial transactions, vote tampering and  untethered collusion and obstruction of  justice at the highest level.  This may take years to unravel.
      Again, I say “possible,” not probable..  Probable would be all that but not as severe.
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Corporations got a 40% tax cut, John and Jane Q get a 1.2% – 1.8% cut, even so, Trump plans to introduce a “rescission package” to cut $15 billion in already approved spending on the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation program, as well as 30 other programs. The  U.S. House will likely approve his  rescission  package, the Senate may not.
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According to Bloomberg.com, 1,100 economists warn that Trump is repeating one of the biggest mistakes of the Great Depression – tariffs and trade protectionism. The warning came in a letter from the conservative-leaning National Taxpayers Union.
      China loves it !  Trump opened the door, China entered, capitalizing on Trump’s regressive “America First” mantra, with its far reaching Belt and Road outreach with investments encompassing infrastructure, education, construction materials, rail and hi-way, auto, real estate, power grid and iron and steel investments to 68 countries, 65% of the world’s population and 40% of global GDP.
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      Kim took Trump’s war with North Korea option off the table, so looks like Trump now has his sights set on IRAN – to please his base, of course, in time for the mid-terms, of course
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North Korea give up nuclear weapons ?  Never !  Kim wants a global stage, so does Trump, who will not risk being embarrassed by the little tyrant. Trump will bail.  He needs a villain to trash to please his base. Kim has what he wants.  I think Trump has been played like a harp. 
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Impeachment of Trump unlikely with this Republican House. Trump has surrounded himself with newly appointed Cabinet members, so Section 4 of the 25th amendment is not a reality.   What’s left ?  A deal with Mueller for his RESIGNATION ?
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Must Read: “Will Christian Nationalism Drive Trump’s Base to the Polls in November ?”  Truthout April 15, Bill Berkowitz. This explains why his base of Christians votes for an immoral person, one whose behavior is the antithesis of the teachings of Christ.
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Will Trump  Fire Mueller

      Trump can’t fire Mueller directly, it must be done by the Department of Justice.  Trump would have to find someone to do it.  Nixon did it in 1973 when he had to work through two attorney generals until  his solicitor general, Robert Bork fired Special Prosecutor Archibald Cox. 
      Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein isn’t going to do it, so Trump must find someone from DOJ , or someone outside who has already been confirmed by the Senate who will do it.         Philip Bump, Washington Post (WAPO) April 10, did a great job outlining possibilities in, “Why Trump can’t fire Mueller – at least not directly.”  I can only touch on a few of his points here.
       In his article, Georgetown University’s professor Paul Butler raises the interesting point that  firing Mueller may not be necessary if  Rosenstein is replaced by someone hostile to the Special Counsel’s investigation.  He would simply force a stall with lots of demands, even leak information to the White House.   
       REASONS NEEDED TO FIRE MUELLER: Trump would have to have  good reason to fire Mueller.  Grounds must be, misconduct, dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, or other good cause, including violation of policies of the Department of Justice, and failure to follow Justice Departments guidelines and violation of applicable canons of ethics.
       CAN TRUMP RESCIND  SPECIAL COUNSEL REGULATION ?  Yes, it’s possible but many legal hurdles  would make it difficult and possibly so time consuming as to make the action worthless. There is no clear cut answer. This would be decided in court, the legal ramifications just very complex.
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FISCAL CRISIS LOOMS IN FUTURE:  Headlines:“Federal debt primed to explode”….”U.S. Deficit to Surpass $1 Trillion Two Years Ahead of Estimates”….”This Year’s budget deficit to hit $804 B after tax cuts and spending hikes”….
       This is all a Republican scheme to justify massive spending cuts to social, health, educational  and safety net programs. It is called “Starving the Beast,” and will lead to debilitating and prolonged recession/bear market, increased crime, rioting and civil unrest.  Republicans set the stage with massive, unnecessary tax cuts and a big budget spend (see below: “Corporate Tax Cut Irresponsible”)
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Cambridge Analytica (now in bankruptcy) is center stage again. Palmer.com  reports  someone behind the scenes is trying to block  Britain’s  Channel 4 News from airing an expose  into Cambridge’s role in using  Facebook (FB) to influence voters to vote for Trump and not Clinton.  On Friday,  Facebook  banned Cambridge’s access.  Palmer speculates the Mercers are behind the  attempt to prevent Channel 4’s expose.  I was on  Cambridge’s case back on June 22, 2017,  noting that billionaire Robert Mercer was connected to Cambridge through Canada’s Aggregate IQ through an intellectual property agreement and worked to influence voting  in the Brexit referendum.  Aggregate is a data mining company.  While Aggregate denies any connection,  the story won’t go away. Palmer sees a connection between Cambridge and John Bolton’s SUPER PAC.  Palmer notes that UK Parliament is investigating  the connection between Cambridge and Brexit and documents referred to by Cambridge whistleblower Christopher Wylie reveal  the firm gave stolen Facebook  user data to Bolton’s PAC  (receiving stolen goods ?), though it is not known how Bolton used the data if his PAC even received it.  (See below: Mercer on the run ?) …………………………………………….
Remember the name Felix Sater, former business associate of Trump, convicted  Russian mafia money laundering figure, and key FBI informant.
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Another name to watch is Ted Malloch who Palmer.com reports was served a subpoena relating to the Trump/Russia probe.  Malloch is a U. S. citizen living in London with close tire to Roger Stone, Brexit leader Nigel Farage and the Trump campaign.  As noted above in Cambridge Analytica, there is a connection to parties involved in Brexit and Trump’s campaign.
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George Nader  has long-standing ties in the Mid-East and Washington over many years.  What appears to be important here is he is cooperating with the Mueller probe not as a wrongdoer, but as a source of information.  He has had ties with the Trump administration through Steve Bannon  and reportedly attended a meeting in the Seychelles Islands January 11, 2017 along with Blackwater founder and former Trump associate, Eric Prince, and Kirill Dmitriev head of a U.S. sanctioned investment firm with close ties to Putin.  Reportedly Nader represented United Arab Emirates’ Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan.
      I referred to the Seychilles meeting on April 5, 2017 noting  the Washington Post reported the meeting was intended to encourage Russia to curtail support for Iran and Syria (Trump wish list) in exchange for lifting U.S. sanctions on Russia.
We’ll see.
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“Protecting guns and profits have become more important than protecting the lives of young people” Henry A. Giroux, Truthout ,  March 4.
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Why are so many Americans beholden to guns ? It could be their sense of security was rocked by 9/11 plus the Great Recession/Bear Market.  Then it could be racial, a fear that people of different colors will eventually outnumber them, prompting  the need (in their paranoid minds) to stage a forceful change in governance (revolution).  This makes little sense, but from their point of  simplemindedness, they feel more secure with a dozen guns and cases of ammunition in house just in case.
     What these whackos don’t understand is they can’t use their guns outside of their homes for fear of injuring or killing an innocent person which not only sends them to jail, but opens them up to a lawsuit where they lose their stock portfolio, car, house and all those “blankies” that  go bang.  ………………………………………

 A quasi-fascist state would give Trump the untethered power he craves.
Read: The Ghost of Fascism in the Age of Trump
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/43529-the-ghost-of-fascism-in-the-age-of-trump
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U.S. Ranking globally and domestically is plunging under Trump
      Global approval of U.S. leadership from 134 countries has plunged to 30% from 48% in just a year.  Clearly, Trump isn’t making America Great Again in the eyes of all other countries.  The downside of this is we need the support of those countries.  Our nationalistic policies are opening doors throughout the world for China. A Gallup poll shows Germany replacing the U.S. as the top-rated power in the world.
      Under Trump, the United States has dropped to 11th place in the Bloomberg Innovation Index, which in addition  to  R&D spending, includes post secondary, or tertiary, education-efficiency category, which includes the share of new science and engineering graduates. Value-added manufacturing also dropped.  South Korea ranked first, followed by Sweden, Singapore, Germany, Switzerland, Japan, Finland, Denmark, France, Israel.
       Also under Trump, Americans’ trust in institutions (government, companies and the  media) has suffered the greatest loss on record according to a poll conducted by Edelman New York. The poll, including 33,000 “informed” individuals showed the U.S. dropping to 43 out of a possible 100, down 23 points in a year.  He is a human wrecking ball.
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CORPORATE TAX CUT IRRESPONSIBLE
“It's pure fantasy to think that the tax bill will lead to significantly higher wages and growth, as Republicans have promised,” Bloomberg continued. Had Congress actually listened to executives, or economists who study these issues carefully, it might have realized that. The tax bill is an economically indefensible blunder that will harm our future” –   Michael Bloomberg – billionaire business man former mayor NYC

      I don’t doubt some corporations need, and deserve a tax cut, but to reduce the rate from 35% to 21% is inexcusable, reckless, unjustifiable, and outright subversive to the best interests of America.
      Corporate income taxes comprise 9% of federal government receipts. If corporate taxes are slashed by 40% (from 35% to 21%), the government’s receipts from corporations are reduced by 3.6% from 9%.
      Individual income tax payments comprise 47% of  federal government receipts. At this point, I have no idea how much of an impact  Congress’ tax cuts will have on this source of federal revenues, but it stands to be significant.
      The Republican administration expects economic growth will be triggered by a sudden change in heart by corporations to abandon stock buybacks and the repatriation of billions stashed abroad to plug the big hole left in federal receipts by tax cuts with a surge in hiring and capital expenditures.
      That assumption is flawed. For one, why would a corporation  go on a hiring and cap-ex spending spree  with an economic expansion that  is 8-1/2 years old, 3 years longer (73%) than the average over 65 years (1945 – 2009).
      For another, are they naïve enough to assume there will be no recessions within the next 10 years ?
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Mercer on the run ?  Bannon and Breitbart bankroller, Robert Mercer is rapidly severing financial ties to Breitbart News and support of Steve Bannon and alt-right’s Milo Yiannopoulos. Mercer was a major supporter of Sen. Ted Cruz’s effort to gain the Republican nomination last year, but switched his allegiance to Trump when he won the nomination.
      In my March 21 post, I wrote, “Years from now, I suspect Mercer will be relaxing at his Long Island waterfront retreat, Owl’s Nest, or on his 200-foot yacht, Sea Owl, and look back over his illustrious career tarnished  by one regret – he backed the biggest con job in our nation’s history.”
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Red states In need of Fed government help the most
Six states (Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Utah, Wisconsin),  are planning to require poverty stricken people on Medicaid  to get jobs  or lose the coverage. Maine, Utah and Wisconsin want to put a time limit on coverage, the latter wants to drug-test people. Excluded: People with long-tern disabilities, the elderly, and children.  Isn’t it bad enough these people are in poverty ? 
      Vox Media reports that 9.8 million Medicaid recipients  don’t have jobs  due to: Illness/disabled (35%), retired (8%), taking care of home or family (28%), going to school (18%), cannot find work (8%). The remaining 60.2 million Americans on Medicaid work full-time of part-time.  I’m not sure what’s the Republican beef here.
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TRUMP’S PARDON POWER
     The President has the power to grant conditional pardons; to commute sentences; remit fines and forfeitures; and grant amnesty. This power can be exercised at any time after the offense has been committed, before conviction of after. Pardons cannot be limited by or controlled by legislative action (US legal.com)
Expect Trump to attempt to pardon anyone he wants, including himself. It’s a way out of facing responsibility very much like dodging the draft. Like when he justified his numerous bankruptcies, saying he only used U.S. laws to his advantage.  Well, “pardons” are his prerogative, in many, not all cases. He would take advantage of whatever loophole to avoid consequences, sort of like dodging the draft, or did I already say that ?
     The President cannot pardon people for “state” crimes, and it is doubtful he can pardon himself.
      Can the Mueller investigation survive Mueller’s firing ?
Slate.com’s July 21 article, “Trump can’t Escape the States,” says “YES.”
1-A state [NY] could hire Mueller and team.
2-State attorneys general could use their quo warranto power to investigate Trump’s organization for fraud and money laundering from Russian sources.
3-A Congressional committee (Senate Intelligence Committee) could hire Mueller or create a Joint select Committee.
4-Congress could pass a new veto-proof independent counsel statute.
FINALLY: If Trump resigns and Pence takes over, Pence could pardon Trump, as Ford did Nixon.
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THE GREAT AMERICAN EXPERIMENT UNDER SEIGE:  Not since the Civil War has the spirit and future of our nation been at such great risk, from within.  This  administration, Congress and U.S. Supreme Court is surgically dismembering  efforts over many years to ensure the safety  and well being of “all” Americans.
     The sooner, Americans recognize these are not genuine Republican conservatives, but extremists determined dismantle that which has been achieved over the years and replace it with “their” brand  of a  quasi-fascist state.  Ben Franklin was right when asked what kind of government  the Founding Fathers had given us.  “A Republic, if you can keep it,” was his response.
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TRUMP looking for a “Get Out Of Jail Free Card if the Feds close in?”
    Why not, he dodged military service with 5 deferments  during the Vietnam era (1964 – 1970).
     Reportedly, he has asked advisers about his power to pardon family members and himself  relating to Mueller’s investigation.
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WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE INVESTIGATION IS COMPLETED ? If the Special Counselor  concludes it is “necessary and appropriate” he is authorized to prosecute federal crimes arising out of the investigation, which he does after submitting a report to the attorney general explaining his reasons.

REASONS NEEDED TO FIRE MUELLER:  Misconduct,  dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, good cause (??), violation of Department policies.
WOULD MUELLER BE REPLACED ? Unclear. If the Democrats controlled Congress they could appoint another Special Counselor
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  “Connect the Dots.” This investigation is open-ended. These are people were part of the Trump team, or in a position to know information relating to activities before or after the 2016 election, though  not necessarily in any way guilty of any wrongdoing.
       Nigel Farage – President Trump- Hope Hicks, Jeffrey Sessions – Robert Mercer – Cambridge Analytics – Bannon- Carter Page – Kushner (Jared and Ivanka) – Eric Prince – Donald, Jr.  and Eric Trump – Wilbur Ross –  Michael Cohen – Ezra Cohen Watnick – Michael T. Flynn – Michael G. Flynn ( son)  – JD Gordon  –  Christopher Steele – Michael Caputo -Breitbart News – Roger Stone – Julian Assange – Paul Manafort – Rick Gates – Jill Stein – Sam Clovis –  Kellyanne and George Conway –Dana Rohrabacher – Bill Browder – Peter W. Smith (deceased: suicide), Paul Behrends – Brad Parscale – Sam Nunberg – Dan Scavino – Keith Schiller –  Alex Van Der waan – Ted Malloch -Boris Epshteyn, Ike Kaveladze, and  Russia’s alfa Group – Felix Sater – Rob Goldstone – alfa Group – Emin Agalarov – Sergey Gorkov –  Sergey Kislyak, ambassador to the U.S., Natalia Veselnitskaya, Oleg Deripaska all connect directly or indirectly to the Trump/Russia investigation and some have a connection to Brexit, as well.
      According to the “Observer,” Mercer’s Cambridge Analytica was connected with Canada’s AggregateIQ through an intellectual property agreement and worked together on the Brexit referendum. Aggregate is also a data mining company. While Mercer was a big supporter of Trump, there is no known connection between AggregateIQ and Trump’s campaign staff.
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 REMOVING TRUMP FROM  OFFICE
Can Section 4 of the 25th Amendment, U.S. Constitution – Remove Trump ?
      It’s a stretch.  The key for his removal is ”that he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.”  Section 4 mentions nothing  that he is unfit, delusional, unbalanced, crazy,  impulsive, irrational, impaired, sociopathic, psychopathic, narcissistic.
      That would be the threshold that would have to be crossed if Trump is removed from office via Section 4 of the 25th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. There is no precedent

      It isn’t just Democrats, liberals, moderates and reasonable people who find Trump caustic, and dangerous, conservatives like George Will, David Brooks and Ross Douthart are also urging his removal.
      First, there are four ways to get rid of Trump – death, resignation, impeachment and Section 4 of the 25th Amendment.
      The procedure employing the 25th Amendment requires the Vice President and the majority of the cabinet of 15 (8) to vote to remove the president. They would submit their declaration in writing to the President pro tempore ( Sen. Orrin Hatch) and Speaker of the House (Paul Ryan) that the president is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, and the Vice President will immediately assume to office as acting president.
      However, the president may contend the move by submitting his own letter to the President pro tempore and Speaker of the House, that he believes he is capable of performing his duties, in which case he will resume the office of presidency.
       The Vice President and Cabinet members may then resubmit their declaration at which point Congress would vote within 48 hours if in session. If not, Congress  will act within 21 days where a two-thirds vote would be required to remove  him.  
        However, as “Business Insider.com” noted on Jan. 9, 2018, Trump could simply fire the Cabinet members who voted to oust him from office.
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IMPEACHMENT
      A  Consult/Politico poll shows 43% of Americans want Congress to begin procedures for the impeachment of President Trump.
      The U.S. Constitution  enables Congress to remove a president for “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.” Initially, the House votes on one or more articles of impeachment- if a majority vote is reached, he is impeached.  BUT, impeachment only means indictment. The Senate holds a trial overseen by the chief justice and Supreme Court. A group of House members serve as prosecutors and the Senate as jurors. If two-thirds of the senators find the president guilty, he is removed from office and the vice president takes over.
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Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com
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George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Absolutely No Room for a Rally Failure

INVESTORS first read.com Daily edge before the open           
DJIA: 24,465
S&P 500: 2,641
Nasdaq Com.:6,908
Russell 2000: 1,467
Wednesday,  November 21,  2018  9:09 a.m.

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gbifr79@gmail.com

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This volatility is EXACTLY what I meant when on December 27, 2017, I Warned:
“2018: The Wildest One in Years.” 
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“No one is bearish, and that’s BEARISH…Odds favor a 12%-18% correction” – Jan. 22, 2018: DJIA:26,214. 
(A 14-day 12.2% correction started 4 days later.)
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Trump – a human wrecking ball (1/3/17)…….and a pathological liar !
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What’s so Christian about favoring the rich over the poor ?
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“Accuse the other side of that which you are guilty.”
                                         Joseph Goebbels, Nazi propaganda minister.
Damn it ! I miss decency
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WARNING ! When the market gets hammered, expect the Trump administration and Wall Streeters to crank out anything that resembles good news that could stop the carnage.  Ignore them. This is often the trigger for bear market rallies that suck investors in before the next move down.
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Market Status: 
        I have warned of a recession for months, and I am not alone (See Shilling below). I don’t think individuals, corporations or our federal government is ready for a downturn.
        Odds strongly indicate we have seen the highs for the 2009 – 2018  bull market.
       The case against that is that the six month period between November 1 and May 1 offers the best opportunity to make money in the stock market, a highly consistent seasonal phenom discovered many years ago by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.
        Could this time around be an exception ?  Or, maybe the current decline has further to go, but rebounds  by May.   Then too, October has hosted the beginning of bull markets for the S&P 500 in 1987, 1990, 1998, , and 2002.
        Conclusion: I think we are in a bear market with a recession just around the corner. The 2007 – 2009 bear market bottom came in March the same month bear market bottoms came in 1978 and 1980.
        Bear markets are official after a 20% decline in the S&P 500. October’s decline was only 11.5%. I think this one will have to play out month by month with no predictable bottom foreseeable at this time.
 Economic Status: Late stage expansion with recession starting in late 2019. Bull markets hit peak 6 to 12 months ahead of recessions. Republicans were in White House in 9 of  the last 10 recessions. Their rosy projections ignore the likelihood of a recession within a year to 18 months. Housing and auto industries already in recession. The crunch can gain momentum ahead of schedule. U.S. fiscal crisis looms 2-3 years out.
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TECHNICAL OBSERVATIONS FOR “TRADERS” FAVORITES
The trading opportunity I referred to yesterday developed yesterday at the open with a climactic high volume sell off in all stocks below except Apple.
Expect rallies into overhead supply and possibly a bit beyond if short covering drives stocks higher.

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Facebook (FB: 132) Down 40% from its 52-week high, FB just broke support at 133.50, dropped to 127 on heavy volume but closed up for the day. This is a classic one-day reversal and  indicates FB is attracting buyers at this level. Some of the buying is short-sellers locking in profits and closing out their position. attractive to buyers.   Expect a rally into resistance which starts at 142. 
Risk: 123-125.
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Amazon (AMZN: 1,495) Tested, and temporarily broke recent October low
,   found temporary support in the 1,475, then rebounded. Expect a bounce to overhead supply which starts  at 1,595. Risk: 1,285.
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Netflix (NFLX: 267)  Classic “Head & Shoulders Top” with massive overhead supply starts 296. Spiked down to 250 yesterday before rebounding. Can bounce further to 283 unless bad news  hit the market. Risk: 209
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Alphabet (GOOG: 1026).  Successfully tested the October lows  and rebounded to form  a double bottom pattern. Should bounce into overhead supply now at 1,059.    Risk: 950
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Apple (AAPL: 176)   Downtrend continues.  Overhead supply now starts at  185. Some support 165-170.   Risk: 158
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 Note: support/resistance levels change frequently.
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THE MARKET TODAY
        The big-name growth stocks, some of which are referred to above, reversed sharply after a huge, high volume sell off at the open, marking the end of the crunch for the time being.
       The DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. tested the October lows at the open and rebounded, which should support a rally.

       This pattern similar to April 2010, Aug 2011, Aug 2015, Jan 2016, Jan 2018, which featured a sizable rally after a big plunge in prices, followed  by wild swings in prices, before a rebound to new highs.
        I don’t expect a rebound to new highs. Instead I expect a plunge in January and February as the Street revises earnings for 2019 and 2020 downward and as it becomes obvious toe the Street we are on the threshold of a recession.
        What could change the picture ?
         The Fed !  They could opt to change interest rate policy to a less restrictive tone, which would confirm my belief we are heading into a recession.
          The 2009 – 2018 bull market is becoming undone, piece by piece. This is what happens in early stage bear markets – the dominos begin to tumble, each tumble driving stock prices lower. 
      The S&P 500 is only down 9% from the October peak. At a minimum, a bear market drops 20%.  That would take the S&P 500 down to 2,352  and the DJIA down to 21,560.
        But that is the minimum criteria for a bear market.  This one stands to drop well in excess of 30%.  It all depends on what new negatives hit the market at lower levels.
       The looming possibility Special Counsel Robert Mueller will indict key Trump administration individuals, as well as Wikileaks founder Julian Assange indicates the investigation has entered its final phase….and it won’t be pretty.
       The pattern here has similarities with Nixon’s Watergate scandal, which contributed to a recession/bear market along with the OPEC oil embargo.
       Today’s equivalent to the oil embargo is our trade war.
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      TECHNICAL OBSERVATION:
       Yesterday’s  alert – “Bear market rallies come out of nowhere, and odds favor one is just around the corner,” is coming today after selling climaxes in the growth stocks.

        I also noted, a “Brief penetration of October’s low, or possibly a smidge north of it, would be a level that could trigger buying and short covering.”
      We had that.  The risk here is one of timing. I expect a highly volatile market, paying up for stocks after a sharp move up can be costly.
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SUPPORT “today:  DJIA:24,307; S&P 500:2,631; Nasdaq Comp.:6,847
RESISTANCE “today”: DJIA:24,765; S&P 500:2,679: Nasdaq Comp.:6,972
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Technical Note: Frequently, there is what I refer to as a mid-afternoon counter move (2:30 – 3:00 where the market rallies or declines against the prevailing trend for the day.   This can be a fake out for investors thinking the market has turned (up or down).
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        A. Gary Shilling  just turned bearish in his November issue, headlining his issue of “INSUGHT“ with “Looming Recession ?”   I have tracked Shilling for decades. He nailed the 2007 – 2009 Great Recession Bear Market before anyone else. For him to suddenly turn negative is  a shocker.  He details his reasons in a 50-page analysis that  is overwhelming in detail and backed up with stats and graphs. No one in my experience has more economic/investing integrity than Shilling. 
 
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IMPORTANT NOTE:
>
Through September, this bull market is 116 months old, or 3.5 times longer than the average of the last  15  bull markets..
>Bear markets start 6 – 12 months ahead of the onset of a recession.  
>Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House
>The current economic expansion has lasted 123 months. That’s 65 months (2.1x) longer than the average expansion (58.4 months) going back to 1945.
>Of the 10 recessions since 1950,the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was 3.8 Months.
> Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months. 
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Bear Market Perspective

      Officially, we are not in a bear market until the S&P 500 declines 20% (2,352).  That would translate into DJIA 21,560 – “ouch” !
       That’s the minimum drop for a bear, but the last two bears crushed the S&P 500 by 57% (2007-2009) and 50% (2000-2002).  
My bear market target would be declines of
      DJIA: 18,500 (-31.4%)
      S&P 500 :  2,150 (-27.0%)
      Nasdaq Comp.:5,200 (-36.1%)
      But, depending on what new negatives hit the market when it gets down there, the bear market could reach much, much  lower levels.
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EARNINGS GROWTH MYTH:
       The Street is counting on earnings growth to reduce the overvaluation of equities.   Look again.

       A 20% increase in S&P 500 earnings this year will  be tough to beat next year.  The quarter versus year ago quarters in 2019 will make poor reading going up against the 2018 earnings, possibly earnings growth around  5%. But the Street is not factoring in the likelihood of a recession, which could mean negative growth.
       At times, politics has little impact on the big  picture. This time is different.

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BULLISH CASE
      A sharp increase in corporate earnings is what the bulls are relying on to power the market higher.
      Q2 earnings increased 25.0% over a year ago.
      Thomson Reuters projects Q3’s increase in earnings to  hit 20.5% and Q4 18.0%.
      However 2019 is a different story with earnings increases of Q1: +7.0%, Q2: +5.1%, Q3: +5.9% and Q4: +3.9%, that averages out to +5.4%.
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BEARISH CASE
RISING INTEREST RATES:
      >The Fed is persistently raising its benchmark interest rate (federal funds), as well as reducing its inflated balance sheet,  which will drive other rates higher, which will adversely impact interest sensitive industries.  . 
      >The 10-year treasury has been rising steadily and now stands at 3.09%.
      > The yield curve is flattening as short-term treasuries rise faster than long-tern governments just another warning sign of impending recession.
 OVERVALUED MARKET
      > The onset of bear markets have led the beginning of recessions by 8.5 months going back to 1956, so don’t look for a recession to signal a bear market. The longest lead time was 13 months (1968 – 1969) The “mode” (most frequent) is 12 months.
       > If companies are buying back their own stock at a record clip, pushing stocks higher, why then are insiders selling $8 of stock for every $1 of stock they buy ?
       .> Companies took advantage of low interest rates to load up on debt in recent years for acquisitions and to buy back their own stock. Excluding banks, the tally is $6.3trillion. The downside of this comes when these companies will need to refinance this debt at higher interest rates when it comes due.
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       > The S&P 500 price to sales ratio at 2.30 is 40% higher than in 2007 before the devastating bear market, and is even higher than in March 2000 before the dot-com bubble burst leading to a bear market. Both bear markets dropped 50%.
       > The Shiller P/E is 31.5  times earnings versus a mean of 16.6.  Shiller’s P/E is based on  inflation adjusted earnings over 10 years.
       > The Total Market Capitalization to GDP  stands at 147.3%, anything above 115% is  considered “overvalued.”
        > Thompson Reuters reports the S&P 500 sells at 18.1 times earnings and 16.2 times a year from now. All this versus a 10-year average of 14.3.
AGING BULL MARKET:
       > The bull market is now  nine years and six months old (115 months).  That’s 3.5 times the average of the last 15 bull markets.
AGING ECONOMIC EXPANSION:
      > Republicans – the recession party. Nine of last 10 recession have been with a Republican in the White House.  Odds favor Trump will make 10 for 11.
      > The current economic expansion has lasted 112 months. That’s 53 months (1.9 x) longer than the average expansion going back to 1945.  Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House.
      > Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months. 
      > Housing stocks have been in a prolonged slump since January. The iShares  home construction ETF has dropped 20.5%, as interest rates rise. Not only is it  major employer, its health affects other industries, especially furniture and appliances..
      > Household debt increased for the 16th straight quarter to 13.3 trillion, that’s 19%  above the post-financial-crisis low.
      > Jamie Dimon, CEO J.P. Morgan Chase,  thinks the benchmark  10-yearTreasury note , now 2.95%, should be 5%. The rate impacts lending for autos, mortgages and businesses.
      > Personal loans have soared   18% to  a record 120 billion, Personal savings as percent of disposable income at 3%, down from 9% in 2012.
      > Low interest rates have encouraged US companies to go on a debt binge, amassing  $6.3 trillion. With rates on the increase, refinancing will get more costly, according to S&P analyst, Andrew Chang, who points out that this amounts to $8 for every $1 in cash.
      > Recently, 1,100 economists WARN Trump is repeating biggest mistakes of Great Depression – tariffs, trade protectionism, according to conservative National Taxpayers’ Union.
      > Former Fed Chair, Ben Bernanke, says economy to fall off a cliff in 2020, thanks to the $1.5 trillion corporate and individual tax cut and $300 billion increase in spending.              
TRUMP’S TRADE WAR TANTRUM
      > Trump’s tariff tiff costing  US companies a bundle:  The damage extends to manufacturers, input suppliers, fishermen, and numerous businesses who are finding it more difficult to sell abroad.
      > Today’s businesses are complex, especially supply chains that can involve a thousand parts that make up a whole product, many of which are sourced from different countries, sometimes crossing back and forth across the same border a number of times.
      >  Trump is considering leaving World Trade Organization (WTO).
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IMPLODING:
      So far, the stock market has not wavered in face of the increasing likelihood, Trump and many present and former associates are in legal trouble.
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POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET

Now is the time for the Republican-controlled Senate to do the American thing and protect the Special Counsel from  President Trump’s effort to undermine it.  This is no longer politics in general, this is about whether or not we are a nation of laws. Failure to do that, and I am convinced certain members of Congress are constitutional anarchists determined to destroy our republic.
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Rogue wave…. or monstrous blue wave ?
Real Americans are rising up to save our republic, and all the quality of life things worked and died for over the years.   After 2020, the right wing Republicans will be irrelevant, forced to climb back under the rock from which they emerged.
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What in the  Hell is wrong with us ?  These Central American peoples of all ages are willing to trek thousands of miles to attempt to enter America, and we are sending troops to back up border control to deny them legal entrance.  SHAME on our President, the selfish Republican party.  By their admirable efforts, they are demonstrating the kind of resolve we want in our workforce.
Christian ?   No, freaking way.  Our leaders are the epitome of  the  anti-Christ !  Hypocrites and un-American at heart ! 
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Trump has proposed a  5 percent budget cut for each Cabinet agency yesterday.
     Wait just a minute !
Didn’t Congress pass a $1.3trillion catchall spending bill earlier in the year after passing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in December, which gave corporations a 40% tax cut, and was skewed heavily in favor of big earners with the rest of the country getting a cut around 1%.
      According to the Treasury Dept. the federal deficit for FY Sept. 30 was $779 billion, up 17% from a year ago primarily due to the shortfall in revenues from corporations as a result of their huge tax cuts.
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Bath Iron Works (Maine) Gets $3.9 billion Navy Award 7 days before Sen. Collin’s “Yes” Vote for Kavanaugh
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      Reecntly, Bill Palmer, PalmerReports.com, gave his reason why Nikki Haley resigned from her post as United Nations Ambassador.

       The story was carried in more detail by the Business Insider.com, which points to her resignation one day after Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) requested the State Dept. investigate her acceptance of seven free flights aboard private jets  from three South Carolina business men.
      While she listed the flights on her 2017 financial disclosure, the information was incomplete according to CREW and did not qualify for an exemption.
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       Breaking: Concern that right wingers are set to rewrite the United States Constitution via an Article V Convention, or Amendments Convention, called by two-thirds of the state legislatures (34).  A three-quarter vote is required for an amendment to become part of the Constitution.   Reportedly, right wingers want to convert our system of government to a confederation of “supreme” states, essentially minimizing the present amount of federal control.
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Trump in hot water on tax evasion and the legitimacy of his inheritance ?
We’ll see !!
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     Since Deputy Atty Gen’l Rod Rosenstein would not fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller, assuming Trump first fired Rosenstein.
     On November 8, 2017, I noted Brian Benczkowski was nominated by President Trump in June [2017] to be U.S. Assistant Attorney General for the Criminal Division. Along party lines, he was confirmed by the Senate recently, raising the question would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein was fired and he  was appointed in his place. He said he would not recuse himself from  questions in the Mueller investigation.
     The big question mark here is that Benczkowski had represented Russia’s Alfa Bank at some point in the past and had no prosecutorial experience.  He had worked for Atty Gen’l Jeff Sessions and the Bush administration and was not opposed by Rosenstein.
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     Palmerreport.com believes Roger Stone will be the next person indicted/arrested by Special Counsel Robert Mueller.
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  As if Trump did not have enough problems, here comes Allen Weisselberg, long-time CFO of the Trump Organization and now a recipient of “immunity” from  the Attorney General of New York.
       This is especially significant, notes PalmerReports.com, since he is testifying about state level charges in addition to federal charges, which cannot be nullified by a Trump pardon.
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      NO ATTORNEY CLIENT PRIVILEGE: Palmerreport.com reminds readers that Trump has NO attorney-Client privilege with Ty Cobb who he hired on July 14, 2017 to help with the Russia scandal. To save personal funds, Trump put Cobb on the White House payroll, so Cobb is free to disclose any information Special Counsel Mueller wants him to.
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  I expect Attorney General Sessions to be fired or to resign any day now.  That puts Deputy Atty. Gen. Rod Rosenstein in jeopardy.  Will Brian Benszkowski be moved in the fill the void. Would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein were fired ?
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HEADS UP !   A majority vote in both the House and Senate can change the number of Justices on the Supreme Court. The number is fixed by statute, not by the Constitution. It has ranged between 6 and 10 since 1789.
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DAMN  IT !   I miss decency.
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“President” Trump has made 4,229 false (lies) and misleading claims since his inauguration. (Washington Post). …………………………………………………………………   
WOULD ANYONE WANT their spouse to lie repeatedly ?, their child ?, mother ?, father ?, minister ?, child’s teacher ?,  coach ?, employer ?.  IF NOT, why would they support President Trump who is on record with telling 4.5 lies per day,  4,200 lies since his inauguration on January 20 ?. 
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Trump boasts about the stock market in his first 31 months as President, but the S&P 500 appreciated 149% during President Obama’s first 31 months in office, 2 ½ times as it advanced under Trump, and Obama inherited the worst stock market/economic collapse since the 1930s, Trump inherited a strong stock market and economic recovery.
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The U.S. Chamber of Commerce currently estimates the impact of Trump tariffs on the following states stand to be: Louisiana ($5.2 bil.), Washington ($5.7 bil.), Texas ($1.4 bil.), S. Carolina ($2.6 bil.), Illinois ($2.1 bil.), California ($4.0 bil.), Kentucky ($917 mil.), Michigan (842 mil.), Ohio ($826 mil.).
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Orwellian: George Orwell’s 1984 wretched society was controlled by denial of the truth,  the dissemination of  misinformation, propaganda, and surveillance, i.e., Big Brother is watching.    “Just remember what you are seeing  and what you are reading is not what’s happening.” Trump  told the VFW July 24
“The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears…” George Orwell’s  dystopian novel – “1984”  published in 1949.
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A recent Gallup poll shows  how  people polled  would vote if the election were held today
Democrats      30%
Republicans   26%
Independents 40%

The key here is twofold. The Democrats must get their vote out, which may be difficult in face of Republican voter suppression. Then too, they need to get a lot  of the Independent vote, which will be helped as Americans see the Trump administration gut treasured institutions, regulations designed to ensure a better environment in the future, healthcare, and undermine time-tested, valued global alliances while cultivating the favor of enemies.
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Special Counsel Robert Mueller  must comply with regulations, rules, procedures, and policies of the Department of Justice as set forth in 28 CFR 600. He can only be removed for misconduct, dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, or other good cause, including violation of the Department’s policy.
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What Trump and his base have in common: They both deplore the same people – people of color, the handicapped, liberals, foreigners.
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VOTES FLIPPED for TRUMP  in Key States in 2016
      Daily Kos’ Aldous Pennyfarthing (Pen name for Tom Breuer)  gave reasons in Alternet.org, July 27, why he thinks the Russians [or someone] flipped votes for Trump in 2016.
      The basis for this conclusion was comparing exit polls with actual outcome in North Carolina Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
 Pennsylvania: Exit polls Clinton 50.5 – Trump 46.1.  Result: Clinton 46.1 –   Trump 48.8.
Wisconsin: Exit poll Clinton 48.2 – Trump 44.3  Result: Clinton 47.6 – Trump 48.8.
North Carolina: Exit poll Clinton  48.6 – Trump 46.5. Result: Clinton 46.1 – Trump 49.9.
      An FOI suit by Bradley Moss (cybersecurity lawyer) brought against the government  revealed Russians hacked inside voting systems in seven big states.
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Wake up out there. These aren’t conservative Republicans, they are anarchists, extremists  who have wrested control of the Republican party over the last 20 years and are intent on a party rule with no checks and balances.  This is  a bloodless coup.
If  they can lock up control of both Houses, the Presidency, Supreme Court and strategic lower court appointments, and a major news media broadcaster, survival of our republic will depend on whose side the military and police forces take.
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 Sinclair Broadcast Group  (BEWARE !)   
      Sinclair Broadcast Group is using its clout as owner of  193 television stations in 80 markets as a lever to manipulate local station viewers’ minds pitching it’s right wing propaganda. Viewers tend to trust local stations programing over national networks.  A July 16, 2018 FCC decision denied Sinclair’s acquisition of the Tribune Broadcast Group, which would have expanded its reach into New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago markets
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 Sinclair Bank (no relation to the broadcast  group) has surfaced as a lender to Michael Cohen, Jared Kushner, his father and Trump.  Ivanka Trump no longer on board. 
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        Treason is defined by Article 3, section 3: Treason, as levying war against the U.S., or in adhering to its enemy, namely aid and comfort, also defined as any act that deliberately strengthens or tends to strengthen enemies of the U.S. or that weakens the power of the U.S. to resist and attack such enemies.
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TRUMP’S BASE:  Some voted for Trump because they always vote Republican. Then there are those whose opinions are based on emotional disorders, those who will never accept the truth no matter what (Confirmation Bias); those who accept bad behavior as the norm (Deviancy Down); and those who while stupid, ill informed who actually believe they are highly intelligent, competent (Dunning Krueger). These people don’t have enough knowledge to know they don’t have enough knowledge, i.e.,too dumb to know they are dumb.(alternet.com 7/23/18)
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July 19, 2018: Republicans refuse to renew election security funding over Russian hacking – Democrats livid, as all of us should be. 
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The Dept. of Justice charged a Russian national, Mariia Butina, of illegally trying to influence American politics using the NRA, religious organizations  as a means of gaining backchannel access to the highest levels of the Republican Party.  Mother Jones says  Butina acted as a covert Russian agent, an unregistered foreign agent.
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      Since Deputy Atty Gen’l Rod Rosenstein would not fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller,   assuming Trump first fired Rosenstein.
     On November 8, I noted Brian Benczkowski was nominated by President Trump in June [2017] to be U.S. Assistant Attorney General for the Criminal Division. Along party lines, he was confirmed by the Senate recently, raising the question would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein was fired and he  was appointed in his place. He said he would not recuse himself from  questions in the Mueller investigation.
     The big question mark here is that Benczkowski had represented Russia’s Alfa Bank at some point in the past and had no prosecutorial experience.  He had worked for Atty Gen’l Jeff Sessions and the Bush administration and was not opposed by Rosenstein.

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A “MALEVOLENT FOOL” – Lt. Col. , Ret’d, Ralph Peters, ex-Fox analyst referring to Trump.   Malevolent: evil, harmful, injurious.
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Un-American ! Trump claims writers of U.S. Constitution treated Him unfairly, adding we have the worst constitution writers in the world…Russia has better constitution writers than we do, says Trump . “I talked with Putin, and he said their constitution never gives him problems.” Andy Borowitz, (The Borowitz Report).
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      WE DON”T WANT TO GO THERE !  The Trump administration is taking the United States straight to a place none of us wants to be – civil unrest,  an extended recession, a fiscal crisis where we can’t pay our bills, ergo the need to slash healthcare, safety net programs, a host of programs that have improved our quality of life.
      This administration’s actions on trade (tariffs, TPP), the intentional divisiveness of America along racial lines, and abandonment of our long-time allies have opened the door for China to dominate the world, economically and militarily.  That’s Un-American.  This has to be stopped.
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Republican strategist, Steve Schmidt, leaves Republican Party after 29 years, saying the party is “corrupt, indecent and immoral,” and with a few exceptions  elected  Republicans are “feckless cowards who disgrace and dishonor the legacies of the party’s greatest leaders.” Others quitting Republican Party: George Will, “Morning” Joe Scarborough. To date, 35 senior Trump advisers have left.
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President Donald Trump is NOT pro-business, he’s pro-Trump
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TRUMP EXIT STRATEGY: The most important thing for King Donald is his image.  Currently he is scrambling to initiate as many perceived accomplishments as possible (taxes, anti-immigrant, anti-allies, deregulation, North Korea, Iran, ISIS, unemployment).
      This way, if he is impeached, defeated in 2020, or forced to resign, he can claim to have been the greatest president of all-time – he’ll tweet it relentlessly, deviancy-downed Americans will believe it and every network in the country, whores that they are, (including MSNBC and CNN) will scramble to cover his tweets.  IMHO: he won’t risk losing in 2020, just not run – declare he has accomplished his mission and walk away.
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POSSIBLE ! That the blue wave won’t happen in November.  Why? The American voter is still zoned out about what is happening – too busy with other stuff, not capable of  objectively analyzing issues accurately without bias.
     The result: The extremist Republicans and their president will run the economy, a constructive foreign relations policy, and America’s quality of life into the ground.  In order to get the American voter’s attention, we have to hit bottom first.
      That means an extended recession, a fiscal crisis (unable to pay bills), a 65% drop in the stock market and,  national unrest greater than that which the Vietnam War attracted.
       We are witnessing the unfolding of  the biggest scandal in our country’s history, including illegal financial transactions, vote tampering and  untethered collusion and obstruction of  justice at the highest level.  This may take years to unravel.
      Again, I say “possible,” not probable..  Probable would be all that but not as severe.
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Corporations got a 40% tax cut, John and Jane Q get a 1.2% – 1.8% cut, even so, Trump plans to introduce a “rescission package” to cut $15 billion in already approved spending on the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation program, as well as 30 other programs. The  U.S. House will likely approve his  rescission  package, the Senate may not.
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According to Bloomberg.com, 1,100 economists warn that Trump is repeating one of the biggest mistakes of the Great Depression – tariffs and trade protectionism. The warning came in a letter from the conservative-leaning National Taxpayers Union.
      China loves it !  Trump opened the door, China entered, capitalizing on Trump’s regressive “America First” mantra, with its far reaching Belt and Road outreach with investments encompassing infrastructure, education, construction materials, rail and hi-way, auto, real estate, power grid and iron and steel investments to 68 countries, 65% of the world’s population and 40% of global GDP.
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      Kim took Trump’s war with North Korea option off the table, so looks like Trump now has his sights set on IRAN – to please his base, of course, in time for the mid-terms, of course
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North Korea give up nuclear weapons ?  Never !  Kim wants a global stage, so does Trump, who will not risk being embarrassed by the little tyrant. Trump will bail.  He needs a villain to trash to please his base. Kim has what he wants.  I think Trump has been played like a harp. 
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Impeachment of Trump unlikely with this Republican House. Trump has surrounded himself with newly appointed Cabinet members, so Section 4 of the 25th amendment is not a reality.   What’s left ?  A deal with Mueller for his RESIGNATION ?
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Must Read: “Will Christian Nationalism Drive Trump’s Base to the Polls in November ?”  Truthout April 15, Bill Berkowitz. This explains why his base of Christians votes for an immoral person, one whose behavior is the antithesis of the teachings of Christ.
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Will Trump  Fire Mueller

      Trump can’t fire Mueller directly, it must be done by the Department of Justice.  Trump would have to find someone to do it.  Nixon did it in 1973 when he had to work through two attorney generals until  his solicitor general, Robert Bork fired Special Prosecutor Archibald Cox. 
      Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein isn’t going to do it, so Trump must find someone from DOJ , or someone outside who has already been confirmed by the Senate who will do it.         Philip Bump, Washington Post (WAPO) April 10, did a great job outlining possibilities in, “Why Trump can’t fire Mueller – at least not directly.”  I can only touch on a few of his points here.
       In his article, Georgetown University’s professor Paul Butler raises the interesting point that  firing Mueller may not be necessary if  Rosenstein is replaced by someone hostile to the Special Counsel’s investigation.  He would simply force a stall with lots of demands, even leak information to the White House.   
       REASONS NEEDED TO FIRE MUELLER: Trump would have to have  good reason to fire Mueller.  Grounds must be, misconduct, dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, or other good cause, including violation of policies of the Department of Justice, and failure to follow Justice Departments guidelines and violation of applicable canons of ethics.
       CAN TRUMP RESCIND  SPECIAL COUNSEL REGULATION ?  Yes, it’s possible but many legal hurdles  would make it difficult and possibly so time consuming as to make the action worthless. There is no clear cut answer. This would be decided in court, the legal ramifications just very complex.
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FISCAL CRISIS LOOMS IN FUTURE:  Headlines:“Federal debt primed to explode”….”U.S. Deficit to Surpass $1 Trillion Two Years Ahead of Estimates”….”This Year’s budget deficit to hit $804 B after tax cuts and spending hikes”….
       This is all a Republican scheme to justify massive spending cuts to social, health, educational  and safety net programs. It is called “Starving the Beast,” and will lead to debilitating and prolonged recession/bear market, increased crime, rioting and civil unrest.  Republicans set the stage with massive, unnecessary tax cuts and a big budget spend (see below: “Corporate Tax Cut Irresponsible”)
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Cambridge Analytica (now in bankruptcy) is center stage again. Palmer.com  reports  someone behind the scenes is trying to block  Britain’s  Channel 4 News from airing an expose  into Cambridge’s role in using  Facebook (FB) to influence voters to vote for Trump and not Clinton.  On Friday,  Facebook  banned Cambridge’s access.  Palmer speculates the Mercers are behind the  attempt to prevent Channel 4’s expose.  I was on  Cambridge’s case back on June 22, 2017,  noting that billionaire Robert Mercer was connected to Cambridge through Canada’s Aggregate IQ through an intellectual property agreement and worked to influence voting  in the Brexit referendum.  Aggregate is a data mining company.  While Aggregate denies any connection,  the story won’t go away. Palmer sees a connection between Cambridge and John Bolton’s SUPER PAC.  Palmer notes that UK Parliament is investigating  the connection between Cambridge and Brexit and documents referred to by Cambridge whistleblower Christopher Wylie reveal  the firm gave stolen Facebook  user data to Bolton’s PAC  (receiving stolen goods ?), though it is not known how Bolton used the data if his PAC even received it.  (See below: Mercer on the run ?) …………………………………………….
Remember the name Felix Sater, former business associate of Trump, convicted  Russian mafia money laundering figure, and key FBI informant.
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Another name to watch is Ted Malloch who Palmer.com reports was served a subpoena relating to the Trump/Russia probe.  Malloch is a U. S. citizen living in London with close tire to Roger Stone, Brexit leader Nigel Farage and the Trump campaign.  As noted above in Cambridge Analytica, there is a connection to parties involved in Brexit and Trump’s campaign.
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George Nader  has long-standing ties in the Mid-East and Washington over many years.  What appears to be important here is he is cooperating with the Mueller probe not as a wrongdoer, but as a source of information.  He has had ties with the Trump administration through Steve Bannon  and reportedly attended a meeting in the Seychelles Islands January 11, 2017 along with Blackwater founder and former Trump associate, Eric Prince, and Kirill Dmitriev head of a U.S. sanctioned investment firm with close ties to Putin.  Reportedly Nader represented United Arab Emirates’ Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan.
      I referred to the Seychilles meeting on April 5, 2017 noting  the Washington Post reported the meeting was intended to encourage Russia to curtail support for Iran and Syria (Trump wish list) in exchange for lifting U.S. sanctions on Russia.
We’ll see.
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“Protecting guns and profits have become more important than protecting the lives of young people” Henry A. Giroux, Truthout ,  March 4.
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Why are so many Americans beholden to guns ? It could be their sense of security was rocked by 9/11 plus the Great Recession/Bear Market.  Then it could be racial, a fear that people of different colors will eventually outnumber them, prompting  the need (in their paranoid minds) to stage a forceful change in governance (revolution).  This makes little sense, but from their point of  simplemindedness, they feel more secure with a dozen guns and cases of ammunition in house just in case.
     What these whackos don’t understand is they can’t use their guns outside of their homes for fear of injuring or killing an innocent person which not only sends them to jail, but opens them up to a lawsuit where they lose their stock portfolio, car, house and all those “blankies” that  go bang.  ………………………………………

 A quasi-fascist state would give Trump the untethered power he craves.
Read: The Ghost of Fascism in the Age of Trump
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/43529-the-ghost-of-fascism-in-the-age-of-trump
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U.S. Ranking globally and domestically is plunging under Trump
      Global approval of U.S. leadership from 134 countries has plunged to 30% from 48% in just a year.  Clearly, Trump isn’t making America Great Again in the eyes of all other countries.  The downside of this is we need the support of those countries.  Our nationalistic policies are opening doors throughout the world for China. A Gallup poll shows Germany replacing the U.S. as the top-rated power in the world.
      Under Trump, the United States has dropped to 11th place in the Bloomberg Innovation Index, which in addition  to  R&D spending, includes post secondary, or tertiary, education-efficiency category, which includes the share of new science and engineering graduates. Value-added manufacturing also dropped.  South Korea ranked first, followed by Sweden, Singapore, Germany, Switzerland, Japan, Finland, Denmark, France, Israel.
       Also under Trump, Americans’ trust in institutions (government, companies and the  media) has suffered the greatest loss on record according to a poll conducted by Edelman New York. The poll, including 33,000 “informed” individuals showed the U.S. dropping to 43 out of a possible 100, down 23 points in a year.  He is a human wrecking ball.
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CORPORATE TAX CUT IRRESPONSIBLE
“It's pure fantasy to think that the tax bill will lead to significantly higher wages and growth, as Republicans have promised,” Bloomberg continued. Had Congress actually listened to executives, or economists who study these issues carefully, it might have realized that. The tax bill is an economically indefensible blunder that will harm our future” –   Michael Bloomberg – billionaire business man former mayor NYC

      I don’t doubt some corporations need, and deserve a tax cut, but to reduce the rate from 35% to 21% is inexcusable, reckless, unjustifiable, and outright subversive to the best interests of America.
      Corporate income taxes comprise 9% of federal government receipts. If corporate taxes are slashed by 40% (from 35% to 21%), the government’s receipts from corporations are reduced by 3.6% from 9%.
      Individual income tax payments comprise 47% of  federal government receipts. At this point, I have no idea how much of an impact  Congress’ tax cuts will have on this source of federal revenues, but it stands to be significant.
      The Republican administration expects economic growth will be triggered by a sudden change in heart by corporations to abandon stock buybacks and the repatriation of billions stashed abroad to plug the big hole left in federal receipts by tax cuts with a surge in hiring and capital expenditures.
      That assumption is flawed. For one, why would a corporation  go on a hiring and cap-ex spending spree  with an economic expansion that  is 8-1/2 years old, 3 years longer (73%) than the average over 65 years (1945 – 2009).
      For another, are they naïve enough to assume there will be no recessions within the next 10 years ?
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Mercer on the run ?  Bannon and Breitbart bankroller, Robert Mercer is rapidly severing financial ties to Breitbart News and support of Steve Bannon and alt-right’s Milo Yiannopoulos. Mercer was a major supporter of Sen. Ted Cruz’s effort to gain the Republican nomination last year, but switched his allegiance to Trump when he won the nomination.
      In my March 21 post, I wrote, “Years from now, I suspect Mercer will be relaxing at his Long Island waterfront retreat, Owl’s Nest, or on his 200-foot yacht, Sea Owl, and look back over his illustrious career tarnished  by one regret – he backed the biggest con job in our nation’s history.”
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Red states In need of Fed government help the most
Six states (Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Utah, Wisconsin),  are planning to require poverty stricken people on Medicaid  to get jobs  or lose the coverage. Maine, Utah and Wisconsin want to put a time limit on coverage, the latter wants to drug-test people. Excluded: People with long-tern disabilities, the elderly, and children.  Isn’t it bad enough these people are in poverty ? 
      Vox Media reports that 9.8 million Medicaid recipients  don’t have jobs  due to: Illness/disabled (35%), retired (8%), taking care of home or family (28%), going to school (18%), cannot find work (8%). The remaining 60.2 million Americans on Medicaid work full-time of part-time.  I’m not sure what’s the Republican beef here.
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TRUMP’S PARDON POWER
     The President has the power to grant conditional pardons; to commute sentences; remit fines and forfeitures; and grant amnesty. This power can be exercised at any time after the offense has been committed, before conviction of after. Pardons cannot be limited by or controlled by legislative action (US legal.com)
Expect Trump to attempt to pardon anyone he wants, including himself. It’s a way out of facing responsibility very much like dodging the draft. Like when he justified his numerous bankruptcies, saying he only used U.S. laws to his advantage.  Well, “pardons” are his prerogative, in many, not all cases. He would take advantage of whatever loophole to avoid consequences, sort of like dodging the draft, or did I already say that ?
     The President cannot pardon people for “state” crimes, and it is doubtful he can pardon himself.
      Can the Mueller investigation survive Mueller’s firing ?
Slate.com’s July 21 article, “Trump can’t Escape the States,” says “YES.”
1-A state [NY] could hire Mueller and team.
2-State attorneys general could use their quo warranto power to investigate Trump’s organization for fraud and money laundering from Russian sources.
3-A Congressional committee (Senate Intelligence Committee) could hire Mueller or create a Joint select Committee.
4-Congress could pass a new veto-proof independent counsel statute.
FINALLY: If Trump resigns and Pence takes over, Pence could pardon Trump, as Ford did Nixon.
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THE GREAT AMERICAN EXPERIMENT UNDER SEIGE:  Not since the Civil War has the spirit and future of our nation been at such great risk, from within.  This  administration, Congress and U.S. Supreme Court is surgically dismembering  efforts over many years to ensure the safety  and well being of “all” Americans.
     The sooner, Americans recognize these are not genuine Republican conservatives, but extremists determined dismantle that which has been achieved over the years and replace it with “their” brand  of a  quasi-fascist state.  Ben Franklin was right when asked what kind of government  the Founding Fathers had given us.  “A Republic, if you can keep it,” was his response.
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TRUMP looking for a “Get Out Of Jail Free Card if the Feds close in?”
    Why not, he dodged military service with 5 deferments  during the Vietnam era (1964 – 1970).
     Reportedly, he has asked advisers about his power to pardon family members and himself  relating to Mueller’s investigation.
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WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE INVESTIGATION IS COMPLETED ? If the Special Counselor  concludes it is “necessary and appropriate” he is authorized to prosecute federal crimes arising out of the investigation, which he does after submitting a report to the attorney general explaining his reasons.

REASONS NEEDED TO FIRE MUELLER:  Misconduct,  dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, good cause (??), violation of Department policies.
WOULD MUELLER BE REPLACED ? Unclear. If the Democrats controlled Congress they could appoint another Special Counselor
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  “Connect the Dots.” This investigation is open-ended. These are people were part of the Trump team, or in a position to know information relating to activities before or after the 2016 election, though  not necessarily in any way guilty of any wrongdoing.
       Nigel Farage – President Trump- Hope Hicks, Jeffrey Sessions – Robert Mercer – Cambridge Analytics – Bannon- Carter Page – Kushner (Jared and Ivanka) – Eric Prince – Donald, Jr.  and Eric Trump – Wilbur Ross –  Michael Cohen – Ezra Cohen Watnick – Michael T. Flynn – Michael G. Flynn ( son)  – JD Gordon  –  Christopher Steele – Michael Caputo -Breitbart News – Roger Stone – Julian Assange – Paul Manafort – Rick Gates – Jill Stein – Sam Clovis –  Kellyanne and George Conway –Dana Rohrabacher – Bill Browder – Peter W. Smith (deceased: suicide), Paul Behrends – Brad Parscale – Sam Nunberg – Dan Scavino – Keith Schiller –  Alex Van Der waan – Ted Malloch -Boris Epshteyn, Ike Kaveladze, and  Russia’s alfa Group – Felix Sater – Rob Goldstone – alfa Group – Emin Agalarov – Sergey Gorkov –  Sergey Kislyak, ambassador to the U.S., Natalia Veselnitskaya, Oleg Deripaska all connect directly or indirectly to the Trump/Russia investigation and some have a connection to Brexit, as well.
      According to the “Observer,” Mercer’s Cambridge Analytica was connected with Canada’s AggregateIQ through an intellectual property agreement and worked together on the Brexit referendum. Aggregate is also a data mining company. While Mercer was a big supporter of Trump, there is no known connection between AggregateIQ and Trump’s campaign staff.
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 REMOVING TRUMP FROM  OFFICE
Can Section 4 of the 25th Amendment, U.S. Constitution – Remove Trump ?
      It’s a stretch.  The key for his removal is ”that he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.”  Section 4 mentions nothing  that he is unfit, delusional, unbalanced, crazy,  impulsive, irrational, impaired, sociopathic, psychopathic, narcissistic.
      That would be the threshold that would have to be crossed if Trump is removed from office via Section 4 of the 25th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. There is no precedent

      It isn’t just Democrats, liberals, moderates and reasonable people who find Trump caustic, and dangerous, conservatives like George Will, David Brooks and Ross Douthart are also urging his removal.
      First, there are four ways to get rid of Trump – death, resignation, impeachment and Section 4 of the 25th Amendment.
      The procedure employing the 25th Amendment requires the Vice President and the majority of the cabinet of 15 (8) to vote to remove the president. They would submit their declaration in writing to the President pro tempore ( Sen. Orrin Hatch) and Speaker of the House (Paul Ryan) that the president is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, and the Vice President will immediately assume to office as acting president.
      However, the president may contend the move by submitting his own letter to the President pro tempore and Speaker of the House, that he believes he is capable of performing his duties, in which case he will resume the office of presidency.
       The Vice President and Cabinet members may then resubmit their declaration at which point Congress would vote within 48 hours if in session. If not, Congress  will act within 21 days where a two-thirds vote would be required to remove  him.  
        However, as “Business Insider.com” noted on Jan. 9, 2018, Trump could simply fire the Cabinet members who voted to oust him from office.
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IMPEACHMENT
      A  Consult/Politico poll shows 43% of Americans want Congress to begin procedures for the impeachment of President Trump.
      The U.S. Constitution  enables Congress to remove a president for “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.” Initially, the House votes on one or more articles of impeachment- if a majority vote is reached, he is impeached.  BUT, impeachment only means indictment. The Senate holds a trial overseen by the chief justice and Supreme Court. A group of House members serve as prosecutors and the Senate as jurors. If two-thirds of the senators find the president guilty, he is removed from office and the vice president takes over.
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Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com
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George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fears Mount as Growth Stocks Tumble and Mueller Closes IN

INVESTORS first read.com – Daily edge before the open                 
DJIA: 25,017
S&P 500: 2,690
Nasdaq Com.:7,028
Russell 2000: 1,496
Tuesday,  November 20,  2018  9:09 a.m.
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gbifr79@gmail.com

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This volatility is EXACTLY what I meant when on December 27, 2017, I Warned:
“2018: The Wildest One in Years.” 
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“No one is bearish, and that’s BEARISH…Odds favor a 12%-18% correction” – Jan. 22, 2018: DJIA:26,214. 
(A 14-day 12.2% correction started 4 days later.)
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Trump – a human wrecking ball (1/3/17)…….and a pathological liar !
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What’s so Christian about favoring the rich over the poor ?
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“Accuse the other side of that which you are guilty.”
                                         Joseph Goebbels, Nazi propaganda minister.
Damn it ! I miss decency
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WARNING ! When the market gets hammered, expect the Trump administration and Wall Streeters to crank out anything that resembles good news that could stop the carnage.  Ignore them. This is often the trigger for bear market rallies that suck investors in before the next move down.
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Market Status: 
        I have warned of a recession for months, and I am not alone (See Shilling below). I don’t think individuals, corporations or our federal government is ready for a downturn.
        Odds strongly indicate we have seen the highs for the 2009 – 2018  bull market.
       The case against that is that the six month period between November 1 and May 1 offers the best opportunity to make money in the stock market, a highly consistent seasonal phenom discovered many years ago by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.
        Could this time around be an exception ?  Or, maybe the current decline has further to go, but rebounds  by May.   Then too, October has hosted the beginning of bull markets for the S&P 500 in 1987, 1990, 1998, , and 2002.
        Conclusion: I think we are in a bear market with a recession just around the corner. The 2007 – 2009 bear market bottom came in March the same month bear market bottoms came in 1978 and 1980.
        Bear markets are official after a 20% decline in the S&P 500. October’s decline was only 11.5%. I think this one will have to play out month by month with no predictable bottom foreseeable at this time.
 Economic Status: Late stage expansion with recession starting in late 2019. Bull markets hit peak 6 to 12 months ahead of recessions. Republicans were in White House in 9 of  the last 10 recessions. Their rosy projections ignore the likelihood of a recession within a year to 18 months. Housing and auto industries already in recession. The crunch can gain momentum ahead of schedule. U.S. fiscal crisis looms 2-3 years out.
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TECHNICAL OBSERVATIONS FOR “TRADERS” FAVORITES
The Street has been dumping overpriced growth stocks, and the carnage has further to go. It is getting ugly, well past the “ouch” point, which suggests  a trading opportunity looms for the nimble.

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Facebook (FB: 131) Down 40% from its 52-week high, FB just broke support at 133.50, and is in that freefall stage where investors who scrambled to buy it above 200 are panicking to get out.  Classic example of the human  
factor – greed/fear.   Risk: 123-125.
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Amazon (AMZN: 1,512)  Testing October low
.  Should find temporary support in the 1,475 area, but drop below 1,400 likely. Overhead supply starts  at 1,575 at Risk: 1,285.
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Netflix (NFLX: 270)  Classic “Head & Shoulders Top” with massive overhead supply starts 296. Still in downtrend.   So many potential sellers above 300. Risk: 209
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Alphabet (GOOG: 1020.  Buyers should show above 975.  Overhead supply now at 1.056.  Attempt to hold at 1,006, doubtful.  Risk: 950
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Apple (AAPL: 186)   Downtrend continues.  Overhead supply now starts at  195. Some support 165-170. Risk: 158
 Note: support/resistance levels change frequently.

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THE MARKET TODAY
      
The 2009 – 2018 bull market is becoming undone, piece by piece. This is what happens in early stage bear markets – the dominos begin to tumble, each tumble driving stock prices lower. 
      The S&P 500 is only down 9% from the October peak. At a minimum, a bear market drops 20%.  That would take the S&P 500 down to 2,352  and the DJIA down to 21,560.
        But that is the minimum criteria for a bear market.  This one stands to drop well in excess of 30%.  It all depends on what new negatives hit the market at lower levels.
       The looming possibility Special Counsel Robert Mueller will indict key Trump administration individuals, as well as Wikileaks founder Julian Assange indicates the investigation has entered its final phase….and it won’t be pretty.
       The pattern here has similarities with Nixon’s Watergate scandal, which contributed to a recession/bear market along with the OPEC oil embargo.
       Today’s equivalent to the oil embargo is our trade war.
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      TECHNICAL OBSERVATION:
      For months, I have warned about the heavy concentration of  the use of computer algorithms by  institutions to perform analysis and make investment decisions. The danger, I warned, is that all these “buy-mode” algos will suddenly be re-written to take into consideration of bear market/recession risk and BINGO, all these behemoths running billions of dollars head for the exits at the same time.
       That has only happened in the big-name growth stocks where the Street’s love affair is now a nasty divorce.
      The only hope for stability is a comment by the Fed that it may ease future interest rate hikes in light of softness in housing and the rout of  the growth stocks.
      Better news on  the China trade talks would help, but little concrete news there is unlikely.
      ALERT: Bear market rallies come out of nowhere, and odds favor one is just around the corner.  Unless an investor is exceptionally nimble and able to buy in just before the low, they can grind a persons cash reserve to bits as they end just as unexpectedly.
       A brief penetration of October’s low, or possibly a smidge north of it, would be a level that could trigger buying and short covering.
       For the DJIA the October low was: 24,122, S&P 500: 2,603; Naasdaq Comp.: 6,922.
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SUPPORT “today:  DJIA:24,650; S&P 500:2,657; Nasdaq Comp.:6,906
RESISTANCE “today”: DJIA:25,196; S&P 500:2,713: Nasdaq Comp.:7,108
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Technical Note: Frequently, there is what I refer to as a mid-afternoon counter move (2:30 – 3:00 where the market rallies or declines against the prevailing trend for the day.   This can be a fake out for investors thinking the market has turned (up or down).
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        A. Gary Shilling  just turned bearish in his November issue, headlining his issue of “INSUGHT“ with “Looming Recession ?”   I have tracked Shilling for decades. He nailed the 2007 – 2009 Great Recession Bear Market before anyone else. For him to suddenly turn negative is  a shocker.  He details his reasons in a 50-page analysis that  is overwhelming in detail and backed up with stats and graphs. No one in my experience has more economic/investing integrity than Shilling. 
 
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IMPORTANT NOTE:
>
Through September, this bull market is 116 months old, or 3.5 times longer than the average of the last  15  bull markets..
>Bear markets start 6 – 12 months ahead of the onset of a recession.  
>Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House
>The current economic expansion has lasted 123 months. That’s 65 months (2.1x) longer than the average expansion (58.4 months) going back to 1945.
>Of the 10 recessions since 1950,the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was 3.8 Months.
> Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months. 
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Bear Market Perspective

      Officially, we are not in a bear market until the S&P 500 declines 20% (2,352).  That would translate into DJIA 21,560 – “ouch” !
       That’s the minimum drop for a bear, but the last two bears crushed the S&P 500 by 57% (2007-2009) and 50% (2000-2002).  
My bear market target would be declines of
      DJIA: 18,500 (-31.4%)
      S&P 500 :  2,150 (-27.0%)
      Nasdaq Comp.:5,200 (-36.1%)
      But, depending on what new negatives hit the market when it gets down there, the bear market could reach much, much  lower levels.
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EARNINGS GROWTH MYTH:
       The Street is counting on earnings growth to reduce the overvaluation of equities.   Look again.

       A 20% increase in S&P 500 earnings this year will  be tough to beat next year.  The quarter versus year ago quarters in 2019 will make poor reading going up against the 2018 earnings, possibly earnings growth around  5%. But the Street is not factoring in the likelihood of a recession, which could mean negative growth.
       At times, politics has little impact on the big  picture. This time is different.

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BULLISH CASE
      A sharp increase in corporate earnings is what the bulls are relying on to power the market higher.
      Q2 earnings increased 25.0% over a year ago.
      Thomson Reuters projects Q3’s increase in earnings to  hit 20.5% and Q4 18.0%.
      However 2019 is a different story with earnings increases of Q1: +7.0%, Q2: +5.1%, Q3: +5.9% and Q4: +3.9%, that averages out to +5.4%.
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BEARISH CASE
RISING INTEREST RATES:
      >The Fed is persistently raising its benchmark interest rate (federal funds), as well as reducing its inflated balance sheet,  which will drive other rates higher, which will adversely impact interest sensitive industries.  . 
      >The 10-year treasury has been rising steadily and now stands at 3.09%.
      > The yield curve is flattening as short-term treasuries rise faster than long-tern governments just another warning sign of impending recession.
 OVERVALUED MARKET
      > The onset of bear markets have led the beginning of recessions by 8.5 months going back to 1956, so don’t look for a recession to signal a bear market. The longest lead time was 13 months (1968 – 1969) The “mode” (most frequent) is 12 months.
       > If companies are buying back their own stock at a record clip, pushing stocks higher, why then are insiders selling $8 of stock for every $1 of stock they buy ?
       .> Companies took advantage of low interest rates to load up on debt in recent years for acquisitions and to buy back their own stock. Excluding banks, the tally is $6.3trillion. The downside of this comes when these companies will need to refinance this debt at higher interest rates when it comes due.
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       > The S&P 500 price to sales ratio at 2.30 is 40% higher than in 2007 before the devastating bear market, and is even higher than in March 2000 before the dot-com bubble burst leading to a bear market. Both bear markets dropped 50%.
       > The Shiller P/E is 31.5  times earnings versus a mean of 16.6.  Shiller’s P/E is based on  inflation adjusted earnings over 10 years.
       > The Total Market Capitalization to GDP  stands at 147.3%, anything above 115% is  considered “overvalued.”
        > Thompson Reuters reports the S&P 500 sells at 18.1 times earnings and 16.2 times a year from now. All this versus a 10-year average of 14.3.
AGING BULL MARKET:
       > The bull market is now  nine years and six months old (115 months).  That’s 3.5 times the average of the last 15 bull markets.
AGING ECONOMIC EXPANSION:
      > Republicans – the recession party. Nine of last 10 recession have been with a Republican in the White House.  Odds favor Trump will make 10 for 11.
      > The current economic expansion has lasted 112 months. That’s 53 months (1.9 x) longer than the average expansion going back to 1945.  Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House.
      > Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months. 
      > Housing stocks have been in a prolonged slump since January. The iShares  home construction ETF has dropped 20.5%, as interest rates rise. Not only is it  major employer, its health affects other industries, especially furniture and appliances..
      > Household debt increased for the 16th straight quarter to 13.3 trillion, that’s 19%  above the post-financial-crisis low.
      > Jamie Dimon, CEO J.P. Morgan Chase,  thinks the benchmark  10-yearTreasury note , now 2.95%, should be 5%. The rate impacts lending for autos, mortgages and businesses.
      > Personal loans have soared   18% to  a record 120 billion, Personal savings as percent of disposable income at 3%, down from 9% in 2012.
      > Low interest rates have encouraged US companies to go on a debt binge, amassing  $6.3 trillion. With rates on the increase, refinancing will get more costly, according to S&P analyst, Andrew Chang, who points out that this amounts to $8 for every $1 in cash.
      > Recently, 1,100 economists WARN Trump is repeating biggest mistakes of Great Depression – tariffs, trade protectionism, according to conservative National Taxpayers’ Union.
      > Former Fed Chair, Ben Bernanke, says economy to fall off a cliff in 2020, thanks to the $1.5 trillion corporate and individual tax cut and $300 billion increase in spending.              
TRUMP’S TRADE WAR TANTRUM
      > Trump’s tariff tiff costing  US companies a bundle:  The damage extends to manufacturers, input suppliers, fishermen, and numerous businesses who are finding it more difficult to sell abroad.
      > Today’s businesses are complex, especially supply chains that can involve a thousand parts that make up a whole product, many of which are sourced from different countries, sometimes crossing back and forth across the same border a number of times.
      >  Trump is considering leaving World Trade Organization (WTO).
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IMPLODING:
      So far, the stock market has not wavered in face of the increasing likelihood, Trump and many present and former associates are in legal trouble.
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POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET

Now is the time for the Republican-controlled Senate to do the American thing and protect the Special Counsel from  President Trump’s effort to undermine it.  This is no longer politics in general, this is about whether or not we are a nation of laws. Failure to do that, and I am convinced certain members of Congress are constitutional anarchists determined to destroy our republic.
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Rogue wave…. or monstrous blue wave ?
Real Americans are rising up to save our republic, and all the quality of life things worked and died for over the years.   After 2020, the right wing Republicans will be irrelevant, forced to climb back under the rock from which they emerged.
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What in the  Hell is wrong with us ?  These Central American peoples of all ages are willing to trek thousands of miles to attempt to enter America, and we are sending troops to back up border control to deny them legal entrance.  SHAME on our President, the selfish Republican party.  By their admirable efforts, they are demonstrating the kind of resolve we want in our workforce.
Christian ?   No, freaking way.  Our leaders are the epitome of  the  anti-Christ !  Hypocrites and un-American at heart ! 
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Trump has proposed a  5 percent budget cut for each Cabinet agency yesterday.
     Wait just a minute !
Didn’t Congress pass a $1.3trillion catchall spending bill earlier in the year after passing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in December, which gave corporations a 40% tax cut, and was skewed heavily in favor of big earners with the rest of the country getting a cut around 1%.
      According to the Treasury Dept. the federal deficit for FY Sept. 30 was $779 billion, up 17% from a year ago primarily due to the shortfall in revenues from corporations as a result of their huge tax cuts.
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Bath Iron Works (Maine) Gets $3.9 billion Navy Award 7 days before Sen. Collin’s “Yes” Vote for Kavanaugh
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      Reecntly, Bill Palmer, PalmerReports.com, gave his reason why Nikki Haley resigned from her post as United Nations Ambassador.

       The story was carried in more detail by the Business Insider.com, which points to her resignation one day after Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) requested the State Dept. investigate her acceptance of seven free flights aboard private jets  from three South Carolina business men.
      While she listed the flights on her 2017 financial disclosure, the information was incomplete according to CREW and did not qualify for an exemption.
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       Breaking: Concern that right wingers are set to rewrite the United States Constitution via an Article V Convention, or Amendments Convention, called by two-thirds of the state legislatures (34).  A three-quarter vote is required for an amendment to become part of the Constitution.   Reportedly, right wingers want to convert our system of government to a confederation of “supreme” states, essentially minimizing the present amount of federal control.
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Trump in hot water on tax evasion and the legitimacy of his inheritance ?
We’ll see !!
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     Since Deputy Atty Gen’l Rod Rosenstein would not fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller, assuming Trump first fired Rosenstein.
     On November 8, 2017, I noted Brian Benczkowski was nominated by President Trump in June [2017] to be U.S. Assistant Attorney General for the Criminal Division. Along party lines, he was confirmed by the Senate recently, raising the question would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein was fired and he  was appointed in his place. He said he would not recuse himself from  questions in the Mueller investigation.
     The big question mark here is that Benczkowski had represented Russia’s Alfa Bank at some point in the past and had no prosecutorial experience.  He had worked for Atty Gen’l Jeff Sessions and the Bush administration and was not opposed by Rosenstein.
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     Palmerreport.com believes Roger Stone will be the next person indicted/arrested by Special Counsel Robert Mueller.
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  As if Trump did not have enough problems, here comes Allen Weisselberg, long-time CFO of the Trump Organization and now a recipient of “immunity” from  the Attorney General of New York.
       This is especially significant, notes PalmerReports.com, since he is testifying about state level charges in addition to federal charges, which cannot be nullified by a Trump pardon.
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      NO ATTORNEY CLIENT PRIVILEGE: Palmerreport.com reminds readers that Trump has NO attorney-Client privilege with Ty Cobb who he hired on July 14, 2017 to help with the Russia scandal. To save personal funds, Trump put Cobb on the White House payroll, so Cobb is free to disclose any information Special Counsel Mueller wants him to.
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  I expect Attorney General Sessions to be fired or to resign any day now.  That puts Deputy Atty. Gen. Rod Rosenstein in jeopardy.  Will Brian Benszkowski be moved in the fill the void. Would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein were fired ?
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HEADS UP !   A majority vote in both the House and Senate can change the number of Justices on the Supreme Court. The number is fixed by statute, not by the Constitution. It has ranged between 6 and 10 since 1789.
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DAMN  IT !   I miss decency.
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“President” Trump has made 4,229 false (lies) and misleading claims since his inauguration. (Washington Post). …………………………………………………………………   
WOULD ANYONE WANT their spouse to lie repeatedly ?, their child ?, mother ?, father ?, minister ?, child’s teacher ?,  coach ?, employer ?.  IF NOT, why would they support President Trump who is on record with telling 4.5 lies per day,  4,200 lies since his inauguration on January 20 ?. 
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Trump boasts about the stock market in his first 31 months as President, but the S&P 500 appreciated 149% during President Obama’s first 31 months in office, 2 ½ times as it advanced under Trump, and Obama inherited the worst stock market/economic collapse since the 1930s, Trump inherited a strong stock market and economic recovery.
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The U.S. Chamber of Commerce currently estimates the impact of Trump tariffs on the following states stand to be: Louisiana ($5.2 bil.), Washington ($5.7 bil.), Texas ($1.4 bil.), S. Carolina ($2.6 bil.), Illinois ($2.1 bil.), California ($4.0 bil.), Kentucky ($917 mil.), Michigan (842 mil.), Ohio ($826 mil.).
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Orwellian: George Orwell’s 1984 wretched society was controlled by denial of the truth,  the dissemination of  misinformation, propaganda, and surveillance, i.e., Big Brother is watching.    “Just remember what you are seeing  and what you are reading is not what’s happening.” Trump  told the VFW July 24
“The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears…” George Orwell’s  dystopian novel – “1984”  published in 1949.
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A recent Gallup poll shows  how  people polled  would vote if the election were held today
Democrats      30%
Republicans   26%
Independents 40%

The key here is twofold. The Democrats must get their vote out, which may be difficult in face of Republican voter suppression. Then too, they need to get a lot  of the Independent vote, which will be helped as Americans see the Trump administration gut treasured institutions, regulations designed to ensure a better environment in the future, healthcare, and undermine time-tested, valued global alliances while cultivating the favor of enemies.
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Special Counsel Robert Mueller  must comply with regulations, rules, procedures, and policies of the Department of Justice as set forth in 28 CFR 600. He can only be removed for misconduct, dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, or other good cause, including violation of the Department’s policy.
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What Trump and his base have in common: They both deplore the same people – people of color, the handicapped, liberals, foreigners.
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VOTES FLIPPED for TRUMP  in Key States in 2016
      Daily Kos’ Aldous Pennyfarthing (Pen name for Tom Breuer)  gave reasons in Alternet.org, July 27, why he thinks the Russians [or someone] flipped votes for Trump in 2016.
      The basis for this conclusion was comparing exit polls with actual outcome in North Carolina Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
 Pennsylvania: Exit polls Clinton 50.5 – Trump 46.1.  Result: Clinton 46.1 –   Trump 48.8.
Wisconsin: Exit poll Clinton 48.2 – Trump 44.3  Result: Clinton 47.6 – Trump 48.8.
North Carolina: Exit poll Clinton  48.6 – Trump 46.5. Result: Clinton 46.1 – Trump 49.9.
      An FOI suit by Bradley Moss (cybersecurity lawyer) brought against the government  revealed Russians hacked inside voting systems in seven big states.
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Wake up out there. These aren’t conservative Republicans, they are anarchists, extremists  who have wrested control of the Republican party over the last 20 years and are intent on a party rule with no checks and balances.  This is  a bloodless coup.
If  they can lock up control of both Houses, the Presidency, Supreme Court and strategic lower court appointments, and a major news media broadcaster, survival of our republic will depend on whose side the military and police forces take.
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 Sinclair Broadcast Group  (BEWARE !)   
      Sinclair Broadcast Group is using its clout as owner of  193 television stations in 80 markets as a lever to manipulate local station viewers’ minds pitching it’s right wing propaganda. Viewers tend to trust local stations programing over national networks.  A July 16, 2018 FCC decision denied Sinclair’s acquisition of the Tribune Broadcast Group, which would have expanded its reach into New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago markets
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 Sinclair Bank (no relation to the broadcast  group) has surfaced as a lender to Michael Cohen, Jared Kushner, his father and Trump.  Ivanka Trump no longer on board. 
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        Treason is defined by Article 3, section 3: Treason, as levying war against the U.S., or in adhering to its enemy, namely aid and comfort, also defined as any act that deliberately strengthens or tends to strengthen enemies of the U.S. or that weakens the power of the U.S. to resist and attack such enemies.
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TRUMP’S BASE:  Some voted for Trump because they always vote Republican. Then there are those whose opinions are based on emotional disorders, those who will never accept the truth no matter what (Confirmation Bias); those who accept bad behavior as the norm (Deviancy Down); and those who while stupid, ill informed who actually believe they are highly intelligent, competent (Dunning Krueger). These people don’t have enough knowledge to know they don’t have enough knowledge, i.e.,too dumb to know they are dumb.(alternet.com 7/23/18)
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July 19, 2018: Republicans refuse to renew election security funding over Russian hacking – Democrats livid, as all of us should be. 
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The Dept. of Justice charged a Russian national, Mariia Butina, of illegally trying to influence American politics using the NRA, religious organizations  as a means of gaining backchannel access to the highest levels of the Republican Party.  Mother Jones says  Butina acted as a covert Russian agent, an unregistered foreign agent.
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      Since Deputy Atty Gen’l Rod Rosenstein would not fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller,   assuming Trump first fired Rosenstein.
     On November 8, I noted Brian Benczkowski was nominated by President Trump in June [2017] to be U.S. Assistant Attorney General for the Criminal Division. Along party lines, he was confirmed by the Senate recently, raising the question would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein was fired and he  was appointed in his place. He said he would not recuse himself from  questions in the Mueller investigation.
     The big question mark here is that Benczkowski had represented Russia’s Alfa Bank at some point in the past and had no prosecutorial experience.  He had worked for Atty Gen’l Jeff Sessions and the Bush administration and was not opposed by Rosenstein.

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A “MALEVOLENT FOOL” – Lt. Col. , Ret’d, Ralph Peters, ex-Fox analyst referring to Trump.   Malevolent: evil, harmful, injurious.
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Un-American ! Trump claims writers of U.S. Constitution treated Him unfairly, adding we have the worst constitution writers in the world…Russia has better constitution writers than we do, says Trump . “I talked with Putin, and he said their constitution never gives him problems.” Andy Borowitz, (The Borowitz Report).
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      WE DON”T WANT TO GO THERE !  The Trump administration is taking the United States straight to a place none of us wants to be – civil unrest,  an extended recession, a fiscal crisis where we can’t pay our bills, ergo the need to slash healthcare, safety net programs, a host of programs that have improved our quality of life.
      This administration’s actions on trade (tariffs, TPP), the intentional divisiveness of America along racial lines, and abandonment of our long-time allies have opened the door for China to dominate the world, economically and militarily.  That’s Un-American.  This has to be stopped.
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Republican strategist, Steve Schmidt, leaves Republican Party after 29 years, saying the party is “corrupt, indecent and immoral,” and with a few exceptions  elected  Republicans are “feckless cowards who disgrace and dishonor the legacies of the party’s greatest leaders.” Others quitting Republican Party: George Will, “Morning” Joe Scarborough. To date, 35 senior Trump advisers have left.
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President Donald Trump is NOT pro-business, he’s pro-Trump
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TRUMP EXIT STRATEGY: The most important thing for King Donald is his image.  Currently he is scrambling to initiate as many perceived accomplishments as possible (taxes, anti-immigrant, anti-allies, deregulation, North Korea, Iran, ISIS, unemployment).
      This way, if he is impeached, defeated in 2020, or forced to resign, he can claim to have been the greatest president of all-time – he’ll tweet it relentlessly, deviancy-downed Americans will believe it and every network in the country, whores that they are, (including MSNBC and CNN) will scramble to cover his tweets.  IMHO: he won’t risk losing in 2020, just not run – declare he has accomplished his mission and walk away.
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POSSIBLE ! That the blue wave won’t happen in November.  Why? The American voter is still zoned out about what is happening – too busy with other stuff, not capable of  objectively analyzing issues accurately without bias.
     The result: The extremist Republicans and their president will run the economy, a constructive foreign relations policy, and America’s quality of life into the ground.  In order to get the American voter’s attention, we have to hit bottom first.
      That means an extended recession, a fiscal crisis (unable to pay bills), a 65% drop in the stock market and,  national unrest greater than that which the Vietnam War attracted.
       We are witnessing the unfolding of  the biggest scandal in our country’s history, including illegal financial transactions, vote tampering and  untethered collusion and obstruction of  justice at the highest level.  This may take years to unravel.
      Again, I say “possible,” not probable..  Probable would be all that but not as severe.
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Corporations got a 40% tax cut, John and Jane Q get a 1.2% – 1.8% cut, even so, Trump plans to introduce a “rescission package” to cut $15 billion in already approved spending on the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation program, as well as 30 other programs. The  U.S. House will likely approve his  rescission  package, the Senate may not.
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According to Bloomberg.com, 1,100 economists warn that Trump is repeating one of the biggest mistakes of the Great Depression – tariffs and trade protectionism. The warning came in a letter from the conservative-leaning National Taxpayers Union.
      China loves it !  Trump opened the door, China entered, capitalizing on Trump’s regressive “America First” mantra, with its far reaching Belt and Road outreach with investments encompassing infrastructure, education, construction materials, rail and hi-way, auto, real estate, power grid and iron and steel investments to 68 countries, 65% of the world’s population and 40% of global GDP.
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      Kim took Trump’s war with North Korea option off the table, so looks like Trump now has his sights set on IRAN – to please his base, of course, in time for the mid-terms, of course
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North Korea give up nuclear weapons ?  Never !  Kim wants a global stage, so does Trump, who will not risk being embarrassed by the little tyrant. Trump will bail.  He needs a villain to trash to please his base. Kim has what he wants.  I think Trump has been played like a harp. 
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Impeachment of Trump unlikely with this Republican House. Trump has surrounded himself with newly appointed Cabinet members, so Section 4 of the 25th amendment is not a reality.   What’s left ?  A deal with Mueller for his RESIGNATION ?
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Must Read: “Will Christian Nationalism Drive Trump’s Base to the Polls in November ?”  Truthout April 15, Bill Berkowitz. This explains why his base of Christians votes for an immoral person, one whose behavior is the antithesis of the teachings of Christ.
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Will Trump  Fire Mueller

      Trump can’t fire Mueller directly, it must be done by the Department of Justice.  Trump would have to find someone to do it.  Nixon did it in 1973 when he had to work through two attorney generals until  his solicitor general, Robert Bork fired Special Prosecutor Archibald Cox. 
      Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein isn’t going to do it, so Trump must find someone from DOJ , or someone outside who has already been confirmed by the Senate who will do it.         Philip Bump, Washington Post (WAPO) April 10, did a great job outlining possibilities in, “Why Trump can’t fire Mueller – at least not directly.”  I can only touch on a few of his points here.
       In his article, Georgetown University’s professor Paul Butler raises the interesting point that  firing Mueller may not be necessary if  Rosenstein is replaced by someone hostile to the Special Counsel’s investigation.  He would simply force a stall with lots of demands, even leak information to the White House.   
       REASONS NEEDED TO FIRE MUELLER: Trump would have to have  good reason to fire Mueller.  Grounds must be, misconduct, dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, or other good cause, including violation of policies of the Department of Justice, and failure to follow Justice Departments guidelines and violation of applicable canons of ethics.
       CAN TRUMP RESCIND  SPECIAL COUNSEL REGULATION ?  Yes, it’s possible but many legal hurdles  would make it difficult and possibly so time consuming as to make the action worthless. There is no clear cut answer. This would be decided in court, the legal ramifications just very complex.
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FISCAL CRISIS LOOMS IN FUTURE:  Headlines:“Federal debt primed to explode”….”U.S. Deficit to Surpass $1 Trillion Two Years Ahead of Estimates”….”This Year’s budget deficit to hit $804 B after tax cuts and spending hikes”….
       This is all a Republican scheme to justify massive spending cuts to social, health, educational  and safety net programs. It is called “Starving the Beast,” and will lead to debilitating and prolonged recession/bear market, increased crime, rioting and civil unrest.  Republicans set the stage with massive, unnecessary tax cuts and a big budget spend (see below: “Corporate Tax Cut Irresponsible”)
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Cambridge Analytica (now in bankruptcy) is center stage again. Palmer.com  reports  someone behind the scenes is trying to block  Britain’s  Channel 4 News from airing an expose  into Cambridge’s role in using  Facebook (FB) to influence voters to vote for Trump and not Clinton.  On Friday,  Facebook  banned Cambridge’s access.  Palmer speculates the Mercers are behind the  attempt to prevent Channel 4’s expose.  I was on  Cambridge’s case back on June 22, 2017,  noting that billionaire Robert Mercer was connected to Cambridge through Canada’s Aggregate IQ through an intellectual property agreement and worked to influence voting  in the Brexit referendum.  Aggregate is a data mining company.  While Aggregate denies any connection,  the story won’t go away. Palmer sees a connection between Cambridge and John Bolton’s SUPER PAC.  Palmer notes that UK Parliament is investigating  the connection between Cambridge and Brexit and documents referred to by Cambridge whistleblower Christopher Wylie reveal  the firm gave stolen Facebook  user data to Bolton’s PAC  (receiving stolen goods ?), though it is not known how Bolton used the data if his PAC even received it.  (See below: Mercer on the run ?) …………………………………………….
Remember the name Felix Sater, former business associate of Trump, convicted  Russian mafia money laundering figure, and key FBI informant.
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Another name to watch is Ted Malloch who Palmer.com reports was served a subpoena relating to the Trump/Russia probe.  Malloch is a U. S. citizen living in London with close tire to Roger Stone, Brexit leader Nigel Farage and the Trump campaign.  As noted above in Cambridge Analytica, there is a connection to parties involved in Brexit and Trump’s campaign.
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George Nader  has long-standing ties in the Mid-East and Washington over many years.  What appears to be important here is he is cooperating with the Mueller probe not as a wrongdoer, but as a source of information.  He has had ties with the Trump administration through Steve Bannon  and reportedly attended a meeting in the Seychelles Islands January 11, 2017 along with Blackwater founder and former Trump associate, Eric Prince, and Kirill Dmitriev head of a U.S. sanctioned investment firm with close ties to Putin.  Reportedly Nader represented United Arab Emirates’ Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan.
      I referred to the Seychilles meeting on April 5, 2017 noting  the Washington Post reported the meeting was intended to encourage Russia to curtail support for Iran and Syria (Trump wish list) in exchange for lifting U.S. sanctions on Russia.
We’ll see.
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“Protecting guns and profits have become more important than protecting the lives of young people” Henry A. Giroux, Truthout ,  March 4.
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Why are so many Americans beholden to guns ? It could be their sense of security was rocked by 9/11 plus the Great Recession/Bear Market.  Then it could be racial, a fear that people of different colors will eventually outnumber them, prompting  the need (in their paranoid minds) to stage a forceful change in governance (revolution).  This makes little sense, but from their point of  simplemindedness, they feel more secure with a dozen guns and cases of ammunition in house just in case.
     What these whackos don’t understand is they can’t use their guns outside of their homes for fear of injuring or killing an innocent person which not only sends them to jail, but opens them up to a lawsuit where they lose their stock portfolio, car, house and all those “blankies” that  go bang.  ………………………………………

 A quasi-fascist state would give Trump the untethered power he craves.
Read: The Ghost of Fascism in the Age of Trump
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/43529-the-ghost-of-fascism-in-the-age-of-trump
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U.S. Ranking globally and domestically is plunging under Trump
      Global approval of U.S. leadership from 134 countries has plunged to 30% from 48% in just a year.  Clearly, Trump isn’t making America Great Again in the eyes of all other countries.  The downside of this is we need the support of those countries.  Our nationalistic policies are opening doors throughout the world for China. A Gallup poll shows Germany replacing the U.S. as the top-rated power in the world.
      Under Trump, the United States has dropped to 11th place in the Bloomberg Innovation Index, which in addition  to  R&D spending, includes post secondary, or tertiary, education-efficiency category, which includes the share of new science and engineering graduates. Value-added manufacturing also dropped.  South Korea ranked first, followed by Sweden, Singapore, Germany, Switzerland, Japan, Finland, Denmark, France, Israel.
       Also under Trump, Americans’ trust in institutions (government, companies and the  media) has suffered the greatest loss on record according to a poll conducted by Edelman New York. The poll, including 33,000 “informed” individuals showed the U.S. dropping to 43 out of a possible 100, down 23 points in a year.  He is a human wrecking ball.
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CORPORATE TAX CUT IRRESPONSIBLE
“It's pure fantasy to think that the tax bill will lead to significantly higher wages and growth, as Republicans have promised,” Bloomberg continued. Had Congress actually listened to executives, or economists who study these issues carefully, it might have realized that. The tax bill is an economically indefensible blunder that will harm our future” –   Michael Bloomberg – billionaire business man former mayor NYC

      I don’t doubt some corporations need, and deserve a tax cut, but to reduce the rate from 35% to 21% is inexcusable, reckless, unjustifiable, and outright subversive to the best interests of America.
      Corporate income taxes comprise 9% of federal government receipts. If corporate taxes are slashed by 40% (from 35% to 21%), the government’s receipts from corporations are reduced by 3.6% from 9%.
      Individual income tax payments comprise 47% of  federal government receipts. At this point, I have no idea how much of an impact  Congress’ tax cuts will have on this source of federal revenues, but it stands to be significant.
      The Republican administration expects economic growth will be triggered by a sudden change in heart by corporations to abandon stock buybacks and the repatriation of billions stashed abroad to plug the big hole left in federal receipts by tax cuts with a surge in hiring and capital expenditures.
      That assumption is flawed. For one, why would a corporation  go on a hiring and cap-ex spending spree  with an economic expansion that  is 8-1/2 years old, 3 years longer (73%) than the average over 65 years (1945 – 2009).
      For another, are they naïve enough to assume there will be no recessions within the next 10 years ?
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Mercer on the run ?  Bannon and Breitbart bankroller, Robert Mercer is rapidly severing financial ties to Breitbart News and support of Steve Bannon and alt-right’s Milo Yiannopoulos. Mercer was a major supporter of Sen. Ted Cruz’s effort to gain the Republican nomination last year, but switched his allegiance to Trump when he won the nomination.
      In my March 21 post, I wrote, “Years from now, I suspect Mercer will be relaxing at his Long Island waterfront retreat, Owl’s Nest, or on his 200-foot yacht, Sea Owl, and look back over his illustrious career tarnished  by one regret – he backed the biggest con job in our nation’s history.”
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Red states In need of Fed government help the most
Six states (Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Utah, Wisconsin),  are planning to require poverty stricken people on Medicaid  to get jobs  or lose the coverage. Maine, Utah and Wisconsin want to put a time limit on coverage, the latter wants to drug-test people. Excluded: People with long-tern disabilities, the elderly, and children.  Isn’t it bad enough these people are in poverty ? 
      Vox Media reports that 9.8 million Medicaid recipients  don’t have jobs  due to: Illness/disabled (35%), retired (8%), taking care of home or family (28%), going to school (18%), cannot find work (8%). The remaining 60.2 million Americans on Medicaid work full-time of part-time.  I’m not sure what’s the Republican beef here.
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TRUMP’S PARDON POWER
     The President has the power to grant conditional pardons; to commute sentences; remit fines and forfeitures; and grant amnesty. This power can be exercised at any time after the offense has been committed, before conviction of after. Pardons cannot be limited by or controlled by legislative action (US legal.com)
Expect Trump to attempt to pardon anyone he wants, including himself. It’s a way out of facing responsibility very much like dodging the draft. Like when he justified his numerous bankruptcies, saying he only used U.S. laws to his advantage.  Well, “pardons” are his prerogative, in many, not all cases. He would take advantage of whatever loophole to avoid consequences, sort of like dodging the draft, or did I already say that ?
     The President cannot pardon people for “state” crimes, and it is doubtful he can pardon himself.
      Can the Mueller investigation survive Mueller’s firing ?
Slate.com’s July 21 article, “Trump can’t Escape the States,” says “YES.”
1-A state [NY] could hire Mueller and team.
2-State attorneys general could use their quo warranto power to investigate Trump’s organization for fraud and money laundering from Russian sources.
3-A Congressional committee (Senate Intelligence Committee) could hire Mueller or create a Joint select Committee.
4-Congress could pass a new veto-proof independent counsel statute.
FINALLY: If Trump resigns and Pence takes over, Pence could pardon Trump, as Ford did Nixon.
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THE GREAT AMERICAN EXPERIMENT UNDER SEIGE:  Not since the Civil War has the spirit and future of our nation been at such great risk, from within.  This  administration, Congress and U.S. Supreme Court is surgically dismembering  efforts over many years to ensure the safety  and well being of “all” Americans.
     The sooner, Americans recognize these are not genuine Republican conservatives, but extremists determined dismantle that which has been achieved over the years and replace it with “their” brand  of a  quasi-fascist state.  Ben Franklin was right when asked what kind of government  the Founding Fathers had given us.  “A Republic, if you can keep it,” was his response.
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TRUMP looking for a “Get Out Of Jail Free Card if the Feds close in?”
    Why not, he dodged military service with 5 deferments  during the Vietnam era (1964 – 1970).
     Reportedly, he has asked advisers about his power to pardon family members and himself  relating to Mueller’s investigation.
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WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE INVESTIGATION IS COMPLETED ? If the Special Counselor  concludes it is “necessary and appropriate” he is authorized to prosecute federal crimes arising out of the investigation, which he does after submitting a report to the attorney general explaining his reasons.

REASONS NEEDED TO FIRE MUELLER:  Misconduct,  dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, good cause (??), violation of Department policies.
WOULD MUELLER BE REPLACED ? Unclear. If the Democrats controlled Congress they could appoint another Special Counselor
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  “Connect the Dots.” This investigation is open-ended. These are people were part of the Trump team, or in a position to know information relating to activities before or after the 2016 election, though  not necessarily in any way guilty of any wrongdoing.
       Nigel Farage – President Trump- Hope Hicks, Jeffrey Sessions – Robert Mercer – Cambridge Analytics – Bannon- Carter Page – Kushner (Jared and Ivanka) – Eric Prince – Donald, Jr.  and Eric Trump – Wilbur Ross –  Michael Cohen – Ezra Cohen Watnick – Michael T. Flynn – Michael G. Flynn ( son)  – JD Gordon  –  Christopher Steele – Michael Caputo -Breitbart News – Roger Stone – Julian Assange – Paul Manafort – Rick Gates – Jill Stein – Sam Clovis –  Kellyanne and George Conway –Dana Rohrabacher – Bill Browder – Peter W. Smith (deceased: suicide), Paul Behrends – Brad Parscale – Sam Nunberg – Dan Scavino – Keith Schiller –  Alex Van Der waan – Ted Malloch -Boris Epshteyn, Ike Kaveladze, and  Russia’s alfa Group – Felix Sater – Rob Goldstone – alfa Group – Emin Agalarov – Sergey Gorkov –  Sergey Kislyak, ambassador to the U.S., Natalia Veselnitskaya, Oleg Deripaska all connect directly or indirectly to the Trump/Russia investigation and some have a connection to Brexit, as well.
      According to the “Observer,” Mercer’s Cambridge Analytica was connected with Canada’s AggregateIQ through an intellectual property agreement and worked together on the Brexit referendum. Aggregate is also a data mining company. While Mercer was a big supporter of Trump, there is no known connection between AggregateIQ and Trump’s campaign staff.
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 REMOVING TRUMP FROM  OFFICE
Can Section 4 of the 25th Amendment, U.S. Constitution – Remove Trump ?
      It’s a stretch.  The key for his removal is ”that he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.”  Section 4 mentions nothing  that he is unfit, delusional, unbalanced, crazy,  impulsive, irrational, impaired, sociopathic, psychopathic, narcissistic.
      That would be the threshold that would have to be crossed if Trump is removed from office via Section 4 of the 25th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. There is no precedent

      It isn’t just Democrats, liberals, moderates and reasonable people who find Trump caustic, and dangerous, conservatives like George Will, David Brooks and Ross Douthart are also urging his removal.
      First, there are four ways to get rid of Trump – death, resignation, impeachment and Section 4 of the 25th Amendment.
      The procedure employing the 25th Amendment requires the Vice President and the majority of the cabinet of 15 (8) to vote to remove the president. They would submit their declaration in writing to the President pro tempore ( Sen. Orrin Hatch) and Speaker of the House (Paul Ryan) that the president is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, and the Vice President will immediately assume to office as acting president.
      However, the president may contend the move by submitting his own letter to the President pro tempore and Speaker of the House, that he believes he is capable of performing his duties, in which case he will resume the office of presidency.
       The Vice President and Cabinet members may then resubmit their declaration at which point Congress would vote within 48 hours if in session. If not, Congress  will act within 21 days where a two-thirds vote would be required to remove  him.  
        However, as “Business Insider.com” noted on Jan. 9, 2018, Trump could simply fire the Cabinet members who voted to oust him from office.
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IMPEACHMENT
      A  Consult/Politico poll shows 43% of Americans want Congress to begin procedures for the impeachment of President Trump.
      The U.S. Constitution  enables Congress to remove a president for “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.” Initially, the House votes on one or more articles of impeachment- if a majority vote is reached, he is impeached.  BUT, impeachment only means indictment. The Senate holds a trial overseen by the chief justice and Supreme Court. A group of House members serve as prosecutors and the Senate as jurors. If two-thirds of the senators find the president guilty, he is removed from office and the vice president takes over.
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Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com
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George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Uncertainties Dominate

INVESTORS first read.com – Daily edge before the open            DJIA: 25,413
S&P 500: 2,736
Nasdaq Com.:7,247
Russell 2000: 1,527
Monday,  November 19,  2018  7:31 a.m.

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gbifr79@gmail.com

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This volatility is EXACTLY what I meant when on December 27, 2017, I Warned:
“2018: The Wildest One in Years.” 
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“No one is bearish, and that’s BEARISH…Odds favor a 12%-18% correction” – Jan. 22, 2018: DJIA:26,214. 
(A 14-day 12.2% correction started 4 days later.)
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Trump – a human wrecking ball (1/3/17)…….and a pathological liar !
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What’s so Christian about favoring the rich over the poor ?
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“Accuse the other side of that which you are guilty.”
                                         Joseph Goebbels, Nazi propaganda minister.
Damn it ! I miss decency
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WARNING ! When the market gets hammered, expect the Trump administration and Wall Streeters to crank out anything that resembles good news that could stop the carnage.  Ignore them. This is often the trigger for bear market rallies that suck investors in before the next move down.
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Market Status: 
        I have warned of a recession for months, and I am not alone (See Shilling below). I don’t think individuals, corporations or our federal government is ready for a downturn.
        Odds strongly indicate we have seen the highs for the 2009 – 2018  bull market.
       The case against that is that the six month period between November 1 and May 1 offers the best opportunity to make money in the stock market, a highly consistent seasonal phenom discovered many years ago by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.
        Could this time around be an exception ?  Or, maybe the current decline has further to go, but rebounds  by May.   Then too, October has hosted the beginning of bull markets for the S&P 500 in 1987, 1990, 1998, , and 2002.
        Conclusion: I think we are in a bear market with a recession just around the corner. The 2007 – 2009 bear market bottom came in March the same month bear market bottoms came in 1978 and 1980.
        Bear markets are official after a 20% decline in the S&P 500. October’s decline was only 11.5%. I think this one will have to play out month by month with no predictable bottom foreseeable at this time.
 Economic Status: Late stage expansion with recession starting in late 2019. Bull markets hit peak 6 to 12 months ahead of recessions. Republicans were in White House in 9 of  the last 10 recessions. Their rosy projections ignore the likelihood of a recession within a year to 18 months. Housing and auto industries already in recession. The crunch can gain momentum ahead of schedule. U.S. fiscal crisis looms 2-3 years out.
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TECHNICAL OBSERVATIONS FOR “TRADERS” FAVORITES
The Street has been dumping overpriced growth stocks, and the carnage has further to go. The following levels can change in a heartbeat if overall market conditions change.  My risk levels  do not Account for an outright market panic.  Yesterday’s rebound may trigger buying/short covering in the stocks below, unless pre-open sellers are too formidable.
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Facebook (FB: 139) Dropped below my “bounce” point target of 143 before rebound to close at 143. 
Heavy overhead supply (sellers) start at 147-150.  Friday’s performance  indicates FB is still on the ropes.   Risk: 123-125.
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Amazon (AMZN: 1,593) Dropped below my “bounce” point target of 1,570 to close at 1,619. 
Overhead supply starts at 1,684, but stock could get up to 1,726 with a short squeeze, but needs buyers ASAP. Risk: 950.
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Netflix (NFLX: 286)  Did not drop to my “bounce” point target of  271  Classic “Head & Shoulders Top” Massive overhead supply starts  311.  Trying to turn the corner and it isn’t easy !NFLX could  move up to 320-325.     Risk: 209
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Alphabet (GOOG: 1061) Did not drop to my “Bounce” point target  of 1,021.  Low was 1,031 before rebounding to1,064.   Overhead supply starts 1,084. Breaking that would give it a shot at 1,123.  Friday was encouraging, but jury still out. Risk: 950
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Apple (AAPL: 193)   Did not drop to my “bounce” point target of 183.  Overhead supply now starts 206.       Risk: 173
Note: support/resistance levels change frequently.
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THE MARKET TODAY
     
All three major market averages (DJII, SP 500 and Nasdaq Comp.) have retraced two-thirds of the Oct. 24 – Nov. 11 rally with Friday rebounding from the day’s lows.
      The bulls should be able to launch a nice rally from here, but trading in the futures before the open suggests there are headwinds to work through.
       There simply seems to be too much uncertainty hovering in the wings for a big rally to gain traction.
        The White House is in disarray, with Trump lashing out in all directions at real and perceived detractors.  Not good.
       It looks like something is about to break and it will add to  uncertainties.
       The looming possibility Special Counsel Robert Mueller will indict key Trump administration individuals, as well as Wikileaks founder Julian Assange indicates the investigation has entered its final phase….and it won’t be pretty.
         The pattern here has similarities with Nixon’s Watergate scandal, which contributed to a recession/bear market along with the OPEC oil embargo.
         Today’s equivalent to the oil embargo is our trade war.
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      TECHNICAL OBSERVATION:
       Looks like the market is off to a bad start.  Needs some very good news, and that may not be forthcoming. The only hope is a comment by the Fed that it may ease future interest rate hikes in light of softness in housing.
      Better news on  the China trade talks would help, but little concrete news there is unlikely.
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SUPPORT “today:  DJIA:25,217; S&P 500:2,728; Nasdaq Comp.:7,233
RESISTANCE “today”: DJIA:25,457; S&P 500:2,741 : Nasdaq Comp.:7,253

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Technical Note: Frequently, there is what I refer to as a mid-afternoon counter move (2:30 – 3:00 where the market rallies or declines against the prevailing trend for the day.   This can be a fake out for investors thinking the market has turned (up or down).
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        A. Gary Shilling  just turned bearish in his November issue, headlining his issue of “INSUGHT“ with “Looming Recession ?”   I have tracked Shilling for decades. He nailed the 2007 – 2009 Great Recession Bear Market before anyone else. For him to suddenly turn negative is  a shocker.  He details his reasons in a 50-page analysis that  is overwhelming in detail and backed up with stats and graphs. No one in my experience has more economic/investing integrity than Shilling. 
 
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IMPORTANT NOTE:
>
Through September, this bull market is 116 months old, or 3.5 times longer than the average of the last  15  bull markets..
>Bear markets start 6 – 12 months ahead of the onset of a recession.  
>Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House
>The current economic expansion has lasted 123 months. That’s 65 months (2.1x) longer than the average expansion (58.4 months) going back to 1945.
>Of the 10 recessions since 1950,the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was 3.8 Months.
> Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months. 
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Bear Market Perspective

      Officially, we are not in a bear market until the S&P 500 declines 20% (2,352).  That would translate into DJIA 21,560 – “ouch” !
       That’s the minimum drop for a bear, but the last two bears crushed the S&P 500 by 57% (2007-2009) and 50% (2000-2002).  
My bear market target would be declines of
      DJIA: 18,500 (-31.4%)
      S&P 500 :  2,150 (-27.0%)
      Nasdaq Comp.:5,200 (-36.1%)
      But, depending on what new negatives hit the market when it gets down there, the bear market could reach much, much  lower levels.
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EARNINGS GROWTH MYTH:
       The Street is counting on earnings growth to reduce the overvaluation of equities.   Look again.

       A 20% increase in S&P 500 earnings this year will  be tough to beat next year.  The quarter versus year ago quarters in 2019 will make poor reading going up against the 2018 earnings, possibly earnings growth around  5%. But the Street is not factoring in the likelihood of a recession, which could mean negative growth.
       At times, politics has little impact on the big  picture. This time is different.

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BULLISH CASE
      A sharp increase in corporate earnings is what the bulls are relying on to power the market higher.
      Q2 earnings increased 25.0% over a year ago.
      Thomson Reuters projects Q3’s increase in earnings to  hit 20.5% and Q4 18.0%.
      However 2019 is a different story with earnings increases of Q1: +7.0%, Q2: +5.1%, Q3: +5.9% and Q4: +3.9%, that averages out to +5.4%.
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BEARISH CASE
RISING INTEREST RATES:
      >The Fed is persistently raising its benchmark interest rate (federal funds), as well as reducing its inflated balance sheet,  which will drive other rates higher, which will adversely impact interest sensitive industries.  . 
      >The 10-year treasury has been rising steadily and now stands at 3.09%.
      > The yield curve is flattening as short-term treasuries rise faster than long-tern governments just another warning sign of impending recession.
 OVERVALUED MARKET
      > The onset of bear markets have led the beginning of recessions by 8.5 months going back to 1956, so don’t look for a recession to signal a bear market. The longest lead time was 13 months (1968 – 1969) The “mode” (most frequent) is 12 months.
       > If companies are buying back their own stock at a record clip, pushing stocks higher, why then are insiders selling $8 of stock for every $1 of stock they buy ?
       .> Companies took advantage of low interest rates to load up on debt in recent years for acquisitions and to buy back their own stock. Excluding banks, the tally is $6.3trillion. The downside of this comes when these companies will need to refinance this debt at higher interest rates when it comes due.
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       > The S&P 500 price to sales ratio at 2.30 is 40% higher than in 2007 before the devastating bear market, and is even higher than in March 2000 before the dot-com bubble burst leading to a bear market. Both bear markets dropped 50%.
       > The Shiller P/E is 31.5  times earnings versus a mean of 16.6.  Shiller’s P/E is based on  inflation adjusted earnings over 10 years.
       > The Total Market Capitalization to GDP  stands at 147.3%, anything above 115% is  considered “overvalued.”
        > Thompson Reuters reports the S&P 500 sells at 18.1 times earnings and 16.2 times a year from now. All this versus a 10-year average of 14.3.
AGING BULL MARKET:
       > The bull market is now  nine years and six months old (115 months).  That’s 3.5 times the average of the last 15 bull markets.
AGING ECONOMIC EXPANSION:
      > Republicans – the recession party. Nine of last 10 recession have been with a Republican in the White House.  Odds favor Trump will make 10 for 11.
      > The current economic expansion has lasted 112 months. That’s 53 months (1.9 x) longer than the average expansion going back to 1945.  Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House.
      > Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months. 
      > Housing stocks have been in a prolonged slump since January. The iShares  home construction ETF has dropped 20.5%, as interest rates rise. Not only is it  major employer, its health affects other industries, especially furniture and appliances..
      > Household debt increased for the 16th straight quarter to 13.3 trillion, that’s 19%  above the post-financial-crisis low.
      > Jamie Dimon, CEO J.P. Morgan Chase,  thinks the benchmark  10-yearTreasury note , now 2.95%, should be 5%. The rate impacts lending for autos, mortgages and businesses.
      > Personal loans have soared   18% to  a record 120 billion, Personal savings as percent of disposable income at 3%, down from 9% in 2012.
      > Low interest rates have encouraged US companies to go on a debt binge, amassing  $6.3 trillion. With rates on the increase, refinancing will get more costly, according to S&P analyst, Andrew Chang, who points out that this amounts to $8 for every $1 in cash.
      > Recently, 1,100 economists WARN Trump is repeating biggest mistakes of Great Depression – tariffs, trade protectionism, according to conservative National Taxpayers’ Union.
      > Former Fed Chair, Ben Bernanke, says economy to fall off a cliff in 2020, thanks to the $1.5 trillion corporate and individual tax cut and $300 billion increase in spending.              
TRUMP’S TRADE WAR TANTRUM
      > Trump’s tariff tiff costing  US companies a bundle:  The damage extends to manufacturers, input suppliers, fishermen, and numerous businesses who are finding it more difficult to sell abroad.
      > Today’s businesses are complex, especially supply chains that can involve a thousand parts that make up a whole product, many of which are sourced from different countries, sometimes crossing back and forth across the same border a number of times.
      >  Trump is considering leaving World Trade Organization (WTO).
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IMPLODING:
      So far, the stock market has not wavered in face of the increasing likelihood, Trump and many present and former associates are in legal trouble.
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POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET

Now is the time for the Republican-controlled Senate to do the American thing and protect the Special Counsel from  President Trump’s effort to undermine it.  This is no longer politics in general, this is about whether or not we are a nation of laws. Failure to do that, and I am convinced certain members of Congress are constitutional anarchists determined to destroy our republic.
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Rogue wave…. or monstrous blue wave ?
Real Americans are rising up to save our republic, and all the quality of life things worked and died for over the years.   After 2020, the right wing Republicans will be irrelevant, forced to climb back under the rock from which they emerged.
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What in the  Hell is wrong with us ?  These Central American peoples of all ages are willing to trek thousands of miles to attempt to enter America, and we are sending troops to back up border control to deny them legal entrance.  SHAME on our President, the selfish Republican party.  By their admirable efforts, they are demonstrating the kind of resolve we want in our workforce.
Christian ?   No, freaking way.  Our leaders are the epitome of  the  anti-Christ !  Hypocrites and un-American at heart ! 
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Trump has proposed a  5 percent budget cut for each Cabinet agency yesterday.
     Wait just a minute ! Didn’t Congress pass a $1.3trillion catchall spending bill earlier in the year after passing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in December, which gave corporations a 40% tax cut, and was skewed heavily in favor of big earners with the rest of the country getting a cut around 1%.
      According to the Treasury Dept. the federal deficit for FY Sept. 30 was $779 billion, up 17% from a year ago primarily due to the shortfall in revenues from corporations as a result of their huge tax cuts.
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Bath Iron Works (Maine) Gets $3.9 billion Navy Award 7 days before Sen. Collin’s “Yes” Vote for Kavanaugh
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      Reecntly, Bill Palmer, PalmerReports.com, gave his reason why Nikki Haley resigned from her post as United Nations Ambassador.
       The story was carried in more detail by the Business Insider.com, which points to her resignation one day after Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) requested the State Dept. investigate her acceptance of seven free flights aboard private jets  from three South Carolina business men.
      While she listed the flights on her 2017 financial disclosure, the information was incomplete according to CREW and did not qualify for an exemption.
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       Breaking: Concern that right wingers are set to rewrite the United States Constitution via an Article V Convention, or Amendments Convention, called by two-thirds of the state legislatures (34).  A three-quarter vote is required for an amendment to become part of the Constitution.   Reportedly, right wingers want to convert our system of government to a confederation of “supreme” states, essentially minimizing the present amount of federal control.
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Trump in hot water on tax evasion and the legitimacy of his inheritance ?
We’ll see !!
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     Since Deputy Atty Gen’l Rod Rosenstein would not fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller, assuming Trump first fired Rosenstein.
     On November 8, 2017, I noted Brian Benczkowski was nominated by President Trump in June [2017] to be U.S. Assistant Attorney General for the Criminal Division. Along party lines, he was confirmed by the Senate recently, raising the question would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein was fired and he  was appointed in his place. He said he would not recuse himself from  questions in the Mueller investigation.
     The big question mark here is that Benczkowski had represented Russia’s Alfa Bank at some point in the past and had no prosecutorial experience.  He had worked for Atty Gen’l Jeff Sessions and the Bush administration and was not opposed by Rosenstein.
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     Palmerreport.com believes Roger Stone will be the next person indicted/arrested by Special Counsel Robert Mueller.
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  As if Trump did not have enough problems, here comes Allen Weisselberg, long-time CFO of the Trump Organization and now a recipient of “immunity” from  the Attorney General of New York.
       This is especially significant, notes PalmerReports.com, since he is testifying about state level charges in addition to federal charges, which cannot be nullified by a Trump pardon.
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      NO ATTORNEY CLIENT PRIVILEGE: Palmerreport.com reminds readers that Trump has NO attorney-Client privilege with Ty Cobb who he hired on July 14, 2017 to help with the Russia scandal. To save personal funds, Trump put Cobb on the White House payroll, so Cobb is free to disclose any information Special Counsel Mueller wants him to.
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  I expect Attorney General Sessions to be fired or to resign any day now.  That puts Deputy Atty. Gen. Rod Rosenstein in jeopardy.  Will Brian Benszkowski be moved in the fill the void. Would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein were fired ?
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HEADS UP !   A majority vote in both the House and Senate can change the number of Justices on the Supreme Court. The number is fixed by statute, not by the Constitution. It has ranged between 6 and 10 since 1789.
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DAMN  IT !   I miss decency.
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“President” Trump has made 4,229 false (lies) and misleading claims since his inauguration. (Washington Post). …………………………………………………………………   
WOULD ANYONE WANT their spouse to lie repeatedly ?, their child ?, mother ?, father ?, minister ?, child’s teacher ?,  coach ?, employer ?.  IF NOT, why would they support President Trump who is on record with telling 4.5 lies per day, 2,000 lies since his inauguration on January 20 ?. 
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Trump boasts about the stock market in his first 31 months as President, but the S&P 500 appreciated 149% during President Obama’s first 31 months in office, 2 ½ times as it advanced under Trump, and Obama inherited the worst stock market/economic collapse since the 1930s, Trump inherited a strong stock market and economic recovery.
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The U.S. Chamber of Commerce currently estimates the impact of Trump tariffs on the following states stand to be: Louisiana ($5.2 bil.), Washington ($5.7 bil.), Texas ($1.4 bil.), S. Carolina ($2.6 bil.), Illinois ($2.1 bil.), California ($4.0 bil.), Kentucky ($917 mil.), Michigan (842 mil.), Ohio ($826 mil.).
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Orwellian: George Orwell’s 1984 wretched society was controlled by denial of the truth,  the dissemination of  misinformation, propaganda, and surveillance, i.e., Big Brother is watching.    “Just remember what you are seeing  and what you are reading is not what’s happening.” Trump  told the VFW July 24
“The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears…” George Orwell’s  dystopian novel – “1984”  published in 1949.
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A recent Gallup poll shows  how  people polled  would vote if the election were held today
Democrats      30%
Republicans   26%
Independents 40%

The key here is twofold. The Democrats must get their vote out, which may be difficult in face of Republican voter suppression. Then too, they need to get a lot  of the Independent vote, which will be helped as Americans see the Trump administration gut treasured institutions, regulations designed to ensure a better environment in the future, healthcare, and undermine time-tested, valued global alliances while cultivating the favor of enemies.
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Special Counsel Robert Mueller  must comply with regulations, rules, procedures, and policies of the Department of Justice as set forth in 28 CFR 600. He can only be removed for misconduct, dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, or other good cause, including violation of the Department’s policy.
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What Trump and his base have in common: They both deplore the same people – people of color, the handicapped, liberals, foreigners.
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VOTES FLIPPED for TRUMP  in Key States in 2016
      Daily Kos’ Aldous Pennyfarthing (Pen name for Tom Breuer)  gave reasons in Alternet.org, July 27, why he thinks the Russians [or someone] flipped votes for Trump in 2016.
      The basis for this conclusion was comparing exit polls with actual outcome in North Carolina Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
 Pennsylvania: Exit polls Clinton 50.5 – Trump 46.1.  Result: Clinton 46.1 –   Trump 48.8.
Wisconsin: Exit poll Clinton 48.2 – Trump 44.3  Result: Clinton 47.6 – Trump 48.8.
North Carolina: Exit poll Clinton  48.6 – Trump 46.5. Result: Clinton 46.1 – Trump 49.9.
      An FOI suit by Bradley Moss (cybersecurity lawyer) brought against the government  revealed Russians hacked inside voting systems in seven big states.
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Wake up out there. These aren’t conservative Republicans, they are anarchists, extremists  who have wrested control of the Republican party over the last 20 years and are intent on a party rule with no checks and balances.  This is  a bloodless coup.
If  they can lock up control of both Houses, the Presidency, Supreme Court and strategic lower court appointments, and a major news media broadcaster, survival of our republic will depend on whose side the military and police forces take.
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 Sinclair Broadcast Group  (BEWARE !)   
      Sinclair Broadcast Group is using its clout as owner of  193 television stations in 80 markets as a lever to manipulate local station viewers’ minds pitching it’s right wing propaganda. Viewers tend to trust local stations programing over national networks.  A July 16, 2018 FCC decision denied Sinclair’s acquisition of the Tribune Broadcast Group, which would have expanded its reach into New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago markets
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 Sinclair Bank (no relation to the broadcast  group) has surfaced as a lender to Michael Cohen, Jared Kushner, his father and Trump.  Ivanka Trump no longer on board. 
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        Treason is defined by Article 3, section 3: Treason, as levying war against the U.S., or in adhering to its enemy, namely aid and comfort, also defined as any act that deliberately strengthens or tends to strengthen enemies of the U.S. or that weakens the power of the U.S. to resist and attack such enemies.
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TRUMP’S BASE:  Some voted for Trump because they always vote Republican. Then there are those whose opinions are based on emotional disorders, those who will never accept the truth no matter what (Confirmation Bias); those who accept bad behavior as the norm (Deviancy Down); and those who while stupid, ill informed who actually believe they are highly intelligent, competent (Dunning Krueger). These people don’t have enough knowledge to know they don’t have enough knowledge, i.e.,too dumb to know they are dumb.(alternet.com 7/23/18)
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July 19, 2018: Republicans refuse to renew election security funding over Russian hacking – Democrats livid, as all of us should be. 
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The Dept. of Justice charged a Russian national, Mariia Butina, of illegally trying to influence American politics using the NRA, religious organizations  as a means of gaining backchannel access to the highest levels of the Republican Party.  Mother Jones says  Butina acted as a covert Russian agent, an unregistered foreign agent.
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      Since Deputy Atty Gen’l Rod Rosenstein would not fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller,   assuming Trump first fired Rosenstein.
     On November 8, I noted Brian Benczkowski was nominated by President Trump in June [2017] to be U.S. Assistant Attorney General for the Criminal Division. Along party lines, he was confirmed by the Senate recently, raising the question would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein was fired and he  was appointed in his place. He said he would not recuse himself from  questions in the Mueller investigation.
     The big question mark here is that Benczkowski had represented Russia’s Alfa Bank at some point in the past and had no prosecutorial experience.  He had worked for Atty Gen’l Jeff Sessions and the Bush administration and was not opposed by Rosenstein.

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A “MALEVOLENT FOOL” – Lt. Col. , Ret’d, Ralph Peters, ex-Fox analyst referring to Trump.   Malevolent: evil, harmful, injurious.
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Un-American ! Trump claims writers of U.S. Constitution treated Him unfairly, adding we have the worst constitution writers in the world…Russia has better constitution writers than we do, says Trump . “I talked with Putin, and he said their constitution never gives him problems.” Andy Borowitz, (The Borowitz Report).
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      WE DON”T WANT TO GO THERE !  The Trump administration is taking the United States straight to a place none of us wants to be – civil unrest,  an extended recession, a fiscal crisis where we can’t pay our bills, ergo the need to slash healthcare, safety net programs, a host of programs that have improved our quality of life.
      This administration’s actions on trade (tariffs, TPP), the intentional divisiveness of America along racial lines, and abandonment of our long-time allies have opened the door for China to dominate the world, economically and militarily.  That’s Un-American.  This has to be stopped.
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Republican strategist, Steve Schmidt, leaves Republican Party after 29 years, saying the party is “corrupt, indecent and immoral,” and with a few exceptions  elected  Republicans are “feckless cowards who disgrace and dishonor the legacies of the party’s greatest leaders.” Others quitting Republican Party: George Will, “Morning” Joe Scarborough. To date, 35 senior Trump advisers have left.
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President Donald Trump is NOT pro-business, he’s pro-Trump
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TRUMP EXIT STRATEGY: The most important thing for King Donald is his image.  Currently he is scrambling to initiate as many perceived accomplishments as possible (taxes, anti-immigrant, anti-allies, deregulation, North Korea, Iran, ISIS, unemployment).
      This way, if he is impeached, defeated in 2020, or forced to resign, he can claim to have been the greatest president of all-time – he’ll tweet it relentlessly, deviancy-downed Americans will believe it and every network in the country, whores that they are, (including MSNBC and CNN) will scramble to cover his tweets.  IMHO: he won’t risk losing in 2020, just not run – declare he has accomplished his mission and walk away.
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POSSIBLE ! That the blue wave won’t happen in November.  Why? The American voter is still zoned out about what is happening – too busy with other stuff, not capable of  objectively analyzing issues accurately without bias.
     The result: The extremist Republicans and their president will run the economy, a constructive foreign relations policy, and America’s quality of life into the ground.  In order to get the American voter’s attention, we have to hit bottom first.
      That means an extended recession, a fiscal crisis (unable to pay bills), a 65% drop in the stock market and,  national unrest greater than that which the Vietnam War attracted.
       We are witnessing the unfolding of  the biggest scandal in our country’s history, including illegal financial transactions, vote tampering and  untethered collusion and obstruction of  justice at the highest level.  This may take years to unravel.
      Again, I say “possible,” not probable..  Probable would be all that but not as severe.
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Corporations got a 40% tax cut, John and Jane Q get a 1.2% – 1.8% cut, even so, Trump plans to introduce a “rescission package” to cut $15 billion in already approved spending on the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation program, as well as 30 other programs. The  U.S. House will likely approve his  rescission  package, the Senate may not.
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According to Bloomberg.com, 1,100 economists warn that Trump is repeating one of the biggest mistakes of the Great Depression – tariffs and trade protectionism. The warning came in a letter from the conservative-leaning National Taxpayers Union.
      China loves it !  Trump opened the door, China entered, capitalizing on Trump’s regressive “America First” mantra, with its far reaching Belt and Road outreach with investments encompassing infrastructure, education, construction materials, rail and hi-way, auto, real estate, power grid and iron and steel investments to 68 countries, 65% of the world’s population and 40% of global GDP.
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      Kim took Trump’s war with North Korea option off the table, so looks like Trump now has his sights set on IRAN – to please his base, of course, in time for the mid-terms, of course
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North Korea give up nuclear weapons ?  Never !  Kim wants a global stage, so does Trump, who will not risk being embarrassed by the little tyrant. Trump will bail.  He needs a villain to trash to please his base. Kim has what he wants.  I think Trump has been played like a harp. 
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Impeachment of Trump unlikely with this Republican House. Trump has surrounded himself with newly appointed Cabinet members, so Section 4 of the 25th amendment is not a reality.   What’s left ?  A deal with Mueller for his RESIGNATION ?
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Must Read: “Will Christian Nationalism Drive Trump’s Base to the Polls in November ?”  Truthout April 15, Bill Berkowitz. This explains why his base of Christians votes for an immoral person, one whose behavior is the antithesis of the teachings of Christ.
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Will Trump  Fire Mueller

      Trump can’t fire Mueller directly, it must be done by the Department of Justice.  Trump would have to find someone to do it.  Nixon did it in 1973 when he had to work through two attorney generals until  his solicitor general, Robert Bork fired Special Prosecutor Archibald Cox. 
      Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein isn’t going to do it, so Trump must find someone from DOJ , or someone outside who has already been confirmed by the Senate who will do it.         Philip Bump, Washington Post (WAPO) April 10, did a great job outlining possibilities in, “Why Trump can’t fire Mueller – at least not directly.”  I can only touch on a few of his points here.
       In his article, Georgetown University’s professor Paul Butler raises the interesting point that  firing Mueller may not be necessary if  Rosenstein is replaced by someone hostile to the Special Counsel’s investigation.  He would simply force a stall with lots of demands, even leak information to the White House.   
       REASONS NEEDED TO FIRE MUELLER: Trump would have to have  good reason to fire Mueller.  Grounds must be, misconduct, dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, or other good cause, including violation of policies of the Department of Justice, and failure to follow Justice Departments guidelines and violation of applicable canons of ethics.
       CAN TRUMP RESCIND  SPECIAL COUNSEL REGULATION ?  Yes, it’s possible but many legal hurdles  would make it difficult and possibly so time consuming as to make the action worthless. There is no clear cut answer. This would be decided in court, the legal ramifications just very complex.
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FISCAL CRISIS LOOMS IN FUTURE:  Headlines:“Federal debt primed to explode”….”U.S. Deficit to Surpass $1 Trillion Two Years Ahead of Estimates”….”This Year’s budget deficit to hit $804 B after tax cuts and spending hikes”….
       This is all a Republican scheme to justify massive spending cuts to social, health, educational  and safety net programs. It is called “Starving the Beast,” and will lead to debilitating and prolonged recession/bear market, increased crime, rioting and civil unrest.  Republicans set the stage with massive, unnecessary tax cuts and a big budget spend (see below: “Corporate Tax Cut Irresponsible”)
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Cambridge Analytica (now in bankruptcy) is center stage again. Palmer.com  reports  someone behind the scenes is trying to block  Britain’s  Channel 4 News from airing an expose  into Cambridge’s role in using  Facebook (FB) to influence voters to vote for Trump and not Clinton.  On Friday,  Facebook  banned Cambridge’s access.  Palmer speculates the Mercers are behind the  attempt to prevent Channel 4’s expose.  I was on  Cambridge’s case back on June 22, 2017,  noting that billionaire Robert Mercer was connected to Cambridge through Canada’s Aggregate IQ through an intellectual property agreement and worked to influence voting  in the Brexit referendum.  Aggregate is a data mining company.  While Aggregate denies any connection,  the story won’t go away. Palmer sees a connection between Cambridge and John Bolton’s SUPER PAC.  Palmer notes that UK Parliament is investigating  the connection between Cambridge and Brexit and documents referred to by Cambridge whistleblower Christopher Wylie reveal  the firm gave stolen Facebook  user data to Bolton’s PAC  (receiving stolen goods ?), though it is not known how Bolton used the data if his PAC even received it.  (See below: Mercer on the run ?) …………………………………………….
Remember the name Felix Sater, former business associate of Trump, convicted  Russian mafia money laundering figure, and key FBI informant.
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Another name to watch is Ted Malloch who Palmer.com reports was served a subpoena relating to the Trump/Russia probe.  Malloch is a U. S. citizen living in London with close tire to Roger Stone, Brexit leader Nigel Farage and the Trump campaign.  As noted above in Cambridge Analytica, there is a connection to parties involved in Brexit and Trump’s campaign.
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George Nader  has long-standing ties in the Mid-East and Washington over many years.  What appears to be important here is he is cooperating with the Mueller probe not as a wrongdoer, but as a source of information.  He has had ties with the Trump administration through Steve Bannon  and reportedly attended a meeting in the Seychelles Islands January 11, 2017 along with Blackwater founder and former Trump associate, Eric Prince, and Kirill Dmitriev head of a U.S. sanctioned investment firm with close ties to Putin.  Reportedly Nader represented United Arab Emirates’ Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan.
      I referred to the Seychilles meeting on April 5, 2017 noting  the Washington Post reported the meeting was intended to encourage Russia to curtail support for Iran and Syria (Trump wish list) in exchange for lifting U.S. sanctions on Russia.
We’ll see.
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“Protecting guns and profits have become more important than protecting the lives of young people” Henry A. Giroux, Truthout ,  March 4.
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Why are so many Americans beholden to guns ? It could be their sense of security was rocked by 9/11 plus the Great Recession/Bear Market.  Then it could be racial, a fear that people of different colors will eventually outnumber them, prompting  the need (in their paranoid minds) to stage a forceful change in governance (revolution).  This makes little sense, but from their point of  simplemindedness, they feel more secure with a dozen guns and cases of ammunition in house just in case.
     What these whackos don’t understand is they can’t use their guns outside of their homes for fear of injuring or killing an innocent person which not only sends them to jail, but opens them up to a lawsuit where they lose their stock portfolio, car, house and all those “blankies” that  go bang.  ………………………………………

 A quasi-fascist state would give Trump the untethered power he craves.
Read: The Ghost of Fascism in the Age of Trump
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/43529-the-ghost-of-fascism-in-the-age-of-trump
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U.S. Ranking globally and domestically is plunging under Trump
      Global approval of U.S. leadership from 134 countries has plunged to 30% from 48% in just a year.  Clearly, Trump isn’t making America Great Again in the eyes of all other countries.  The downside of this is we need the support of those countries.  Our nationalistic policies are opening doors throughout the world for China. A Gallup poll shows Germany replacing the U.S. as the top-rated power in the world.
      Under Trump, the United States has dropped to 11th place in the Bloomberg Innovation Index, which in addition  to  R&D spending, includes post secondary, or tertiary, education-efficiency category, which includes the share of new science and engineering graduates. Value-added manufacturing also dropped.  South Korea ranked first, followed by Sweden, Singapore, Germany, Switzerland, Japan, Finland, Denmark, France, Israel.
       Also under Trump, Americans’ trust in institutions (government, companies and the  media) has suffered the greatest loss on record according to a poll conducted by Edelman New York. The poll, including 33,000 “informed” individuals showed the U.S. dropping to 43 out of a possible 100, down 23 points in a year.  He is a human wrecking ball.
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CORPORATE TAX CUT IRRESPONSIBLE
“It's pure fantasy to think that the tax bill will lead to significantly higher wages and growth, as Republicans have promised,” Bloomberg continued. Had Congress actually listened to executives, or economists who study these issues carefully, it might have realized that. The tax bill is an economically indefensible blunder that will harm our future” –   Michael Bloomberg – billionaire business man former mayor NYC

      I don’t doubt some corporations need, and deserve a tax cut, but to reduce the rate from 35% to 21% is inexcusable, reckless, unjustifiable, and outright subversive to the best interests of America.
      Corporate income taxes comprise 9% of federal government receipts. If corporate taxes are slashed by 40% (from 35% to 21%), the government’s receipts from corporations are reduced by 3.6% from 9%.
      Individual income tax payments comprise 47% of  federal government receipts. At this point, I have no idea how much of an impact  Congress’ tax cuts will have on this source of federal revenues, but it stands to be significant.
      The Republican administration expects economic growth will be triggered by a sudden change in heart by corporations to abandon stock buybacks and the repatriation of billions stashed abroad to plug the big hole left in federal receipts by tax cuts with a surge in hiring and capital expenditures.
      That assumption is flawed. For one, why would a corporation  go on a hiring and cap-ex spending spree  with an economic expansion that  is 8-1/2 years old, 3 years longer (73%) than the average over 65 years (1945 – 2009).
      For another, are they naïve enough to assume there will be no recessions within the next 10 years ?
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Mercer on the run ?  Bannon and Breitbart bankroller, Robert Mercer is rapidly severing financial ties to Breitbart News and support of Steve Bannon and alt-right’s Milo Yiannopoulos. Mercer was a major supporter of Sen. Ted Cruz’s effort to gain the Republican nomination last year, but switched his allegiance to Trump when he won the nomination.
      In my March 21 post, I wrote, “Years from now, I suspect Mercer will be relaxing at his Long Island waterfront retreat, Owl’s Nest, or on his 200-foot yacht, Sea Owl, and look back over his illustrious career tarnished  by one regret – he backed the biggest con job in our nation’s history.”
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Red states In need of Fed government help the most
Six states (Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Utah, Wisconsin),  are planning to require poverty stricken people on Medicaid  to get jobs  or lose the coverage. Maine, Utah and Wisconsin want to put a time limit on coverage, the latter wants to drug-test people. Excluded: People with long-tern disabilities, the elderly, and children.  Isn’t it bad enough these people are in poverty ? 
      Vox Media reports that 9.8 million Medicaid recipients  don’t have jobs  due to: Illness/disabled (35%), retired (8%), taking care of home or family (28%), going to school (18%), cannot find work (8%). The remaining 60.2 million Americans on Medicaid work full-time of part-time.  I’m not sure what’s the Republican beef here.
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TRUMP’S PARDON POWER
     The President has the power to grant conditional pardons; to commute sentences; remit fines and forfeitures; and grant amnesty. This power can be exercised at any time after the offense has been committed, before conviction of after. Pardons cannot be limited by or controlled by legislative action (US legal.com)
Expect Trump to attempt to pardon anyone he wants, including himself. It’s a way out of facing responsibility very much like dodging the draft. Like when he justified his numerous bankruptcies, saying he only used U.S. laws to his advantage.  Well, “pardons” are his prerogative, in many, not all cases. He would take advantage of whatever loophole to avoid consequences, sort of like dodging the draft, or did I already say that ?
     The President cannot pardon people for “state” crimes, and it is doubtful he can pardon himself.
      Can the Mueller investigation survive Mueller’s firing ?
Slate.com’s July 21 article, “Trump can’t Escape the States,” says “YES.”
1-A state [NY] could hire Mueller and team.
2-State attorneys general could use their quo warranto power to investigate Trump’s organization for fraud and money laundering from Russian sources.
3-A Congressional committee (Senate Intelligence Committee) could hire Mueller or create a Joint select Committee.
4-Congress could pass a new veto-proof independent counsel statute.
FINALLY: If Trump resigns and Pence takes over, Pence could pardon Trump, as Ford did Nixon.
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THE GREAT AMERICAN EXPERIMENT UNDER SEIGE:  Not since the Civil War has the spirit and future of our nation been at such great risk, from within.  This  administration, Congress and U.S. Supreme Court is surgically dismembering  efforts over many years to ensure the safety  and well being of “all” Americans.
     The sooner, Americans recognize these are not genuine Republican conservatives, but extremists determined dismantle that which has been achieved over the years and replace it with “their” brand  of a  quasi-fascist state.  Ben Franklin was right when asked what kind of government  the Founding Fathers had given us.  “A Republic, if you can keep it,” was his response.
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TRUMP looking for a “Get Out Of Jail Free Card if the Feds close in?”
    Why not, he dodged military service with 5 deferments  during the Vietnam era (1964 – 1970).
     Reportedly, he has asked advisers about his power to pardon family members and himself  relating to Mueller’s investigation.
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WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE INVESTIGATION IS COMPLETED ? If the Special Counselor  concludes it is “necessary and appropriate” he is authorized to prosecute federal crimes arising out of the investigation, which he does after submitting a report to the attorney general explaining his reasons.

REASONS NEEDED TO FIRE MUELLER:  Misconduct,  dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, good cause (??), violation of Department policies.
WOULD MUELLER BE REPLACED ? Unclear. If the Democrats controlled Congress they could appoint another Special Counselor
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  “Connect the Dots.” This investigation is open-ended. These are people were part of the Trump team, or in a position to know information relating to activities before or after the 2016 election, though  not necessarily in any way guilty of any wrongdoing.
       Nigel Farage – President Trump- Hope Hicks, Jeffrey Sessions – Robert Mercer – Cambridge Analytics – Bannon- Carter Page – Kushner (Jared and Ivanka) – Eric Prince – Donald, Jr.  and Eric Trump – Wilbur Ross –  Michael Cohen – Ezra Cohen Watnick – Michael T. Flynn – Michael G. Flynn ( son)  – JD Gordon  –  Christopher Steele – Michael Caputo -Breitbart News – Roger Stone – Julian Assange – Paul Manafort – Rick Gates – Jill Stein – Sam Clovis –  Kellyanne and George Conway –Dana Rohrabacher – Bill Browder – Peter W. Smith (deceased: suicide), Paul Behrends – Brad Parscale – Sam Nunberg – Dan Scavino – Keith Schiller –  Alex Van Der waan – Ted Malloch -Boris Epshteyn, Ike Kaveladze, and  Russia’s alfa Group – Felix Sater – Rob Goldstone – alfa Group – Emin Agalarov – Sergey Gorkov –  Sergey Kislyak, ambassador to the U.S., Natalia Veselnitskaya, Oleg Deripaska all connect directly or indirectly to the Trump/Russia investigation and some have a connection to Brexit, as well.
      According to the “Observer,” Mercer’s Cambridge Analytica was connected with Canada’s AggregateIQ through an intellectual property agreement and worked together on the Brexit referendum. Aggregate is also a data mining company. While Mercer was a big supporter of Trump, there is no known connection between AggregateIQ and Trump’s campaign staff.
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 REMOVING TRUMP FROM  OFFICE
Can Section 4 of the 25th Amendment, U.S. Constitution – Remove Trump ?
      It’s a stretch.  The key for his removal is ”that he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.”  Section 4 mentions nothing  that he is unfit, delusional, unbalanced, crazy,  impulsive, irrational, impaired, sociopathic, psychopathic, narcissistic.
      That would be the threshold that would have to be crossed if Trump is removed from office via Section 4 of the 25th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. There is no precedent

      It isn’t just Democrats, liberals, moderates and reasonable people who find Trump caustic, and dangerous, conservatives like George Will, David Brooks and Ross Douthart are also urging his removal.
      First, there are four ways to get rid of Trump – death, resignation, impeachment and Section 4 of the 25th Amendment.
      The procedure employing the 25th Amendment requires the Vice President and the majority of the cabinet of 15 (8) to vote to remove the president. They would submit their declaration in writing to the President pro tempore ( Sen. Orrin Hatch) and Speaker of the House (Paul Ryan) that the president is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, and the Vice President will immediately assume to office as acting president.
      However, the president may contend the move by submitting his own letter to the President pro tempore and Speaker of the House, that he believes he is capable of performing his duties, in which case he will resume the office of presidency.
       The Vice President and Cabinet members may then resubmit their declaration at which point Congress would vote within 48 hours if in session. If not, Congress  will act within 21 days where a two-thirds vote would be required to remove  him.  
        However, as “Business Insider.com” noted on Jan. 9, 2018, Trump could simply fire the Cabinet members who voted to oust him from office.
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IMPEACHMENT
      A  Consult/Politico poll shows 43% of Americans want Congress to begin procedures for the impeachment of President Trump.
      The U.S. Constitution  enables Congress to remove a president for “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.” Initially, the House votes on one or more articles of impeachment- if a majority vote is reached, he is impeached.  BUT, impeachment only means indictment. The Senate holds a trial overseen by the chief justice and Supreme Court. A group of House members serve as prosecutors and the Senate as jurors. If two-thirds of the senators find the president guilty, he is removed from office and the vice president takes over.
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Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com
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George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Constitutional Crisis Looms

INVESTORS first read.com – Daily edge before the open            
DJIA: 25,289
S&P 500: 2,730
Nasdaq Com.:7,259
Russell 2000: 1,524
Friday,  November 16,  2018  7:31 a.m.

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gbifr79@gmail.com

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This volatility is EXACTLY what I meant when on December 27, 2017, I Warned:
“2018: The Wildest One in Years.” 
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“No one is bearish, and that’s BEARISH…Odds favor a 12%-18% correction” – Jan. 22, 2018: DJIA:26,214. 
(A 14-day 12.2% correction started 4 days later.)
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Trump – a human wrecking ball (1/3/17)…….and a pathological liar !
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What’s so Christian about favoring the rich over the poor ?
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“Accuse the other side of that which you are guilty.”
                                         Joseph Goebbels, Nazi propaganda minister.
Damn it ! I miss decency
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WARNING ! When the market gets hammered, expect the Trump administration and Wall Streeters to crank out anything that resembles good news that could stop the carnage.  Ignore them. This is often the trigger for bear market rallies that suck investors in before the next move down.
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Market Status: 
        I have warned of a recession for months, and I am not alone (See Shilling below). I don’t think individuals, corporations or our federal government is ready for a downturn.
        Odds strongly indicate we have seen the highs for the 2009 – 2018  bull market.
       The case against that is that the six month period between November 1 and May 1 offers the best opportunity to make money in the stock market, a highly consistent seasonal phenom discovered many years ago by the Stock Trader’s Almanac.
        Could this time around be an exception ?  Or, maybe the current decline has further to go, but rebounds  by May.   Then too, October has hosted the beginning of bull markets for the S&P 500 in 1987, 1990, 1998, , and 2002.
        Conclusion: I think we are in a bear market with a recession just around the corner. The 2007 – 2009 bear market bottom came in March the same month bear market bottoms came in 1978 and 1980.
        Bear markets are official after a 20% decline in the S&P 500. October’s decline was only 11.5%. I think this one will have to play out month by month with no predictable bottom foreseeable at this time.
 Economic Status: Late stage expansion with recession starting in late 2019. Bull markets hit peak 6 to 12 months ahead of recessions. Republicans were in White House in 9 of  the last 10 recessions. Their rosy projections ignore the likelihood of a recession within a year to 18 months. Housing and auto industries already in recession. The crunch can gain momentum ahead of schedule. U.S. fiscal crisis looms 2-3 years out.
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TECHNICAL OBSERVATIONS FOR “TRADERS” FAVORITES
The Street has been dumping overpriced growth stocks, and the carnage has further to go. The following levels can change in a heartbeat if overall market conditions change.  My risk levels  do not Account for an outright market panic.  Yesterday’s rebound may trigger buying/short covering in the stocks below, unless pre-open sellers are too formidable.
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Facebook (FB: 143) Dropped below my “bounce” point target of 143 before rebound to close at 143. 
Heavy overhead supply (sellers) start at 147-150.   “If” yesterday’s rally follows through, FB could reach 156-160.  Risk: 123-125.
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Amazon (AMZN: 1,619) Dropped below my “bounce” point target of 1,570 to close at 1,619. 
Overhead supply starts at 1,684, but stock could get up to 1,726 with a short squeeze..  Risk: 950.
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Netflix (NFLX: 289)  Did not drop to my “bounce” point target of  271  Classic “Head & Shoulders Top” Massive overhead supply starts  311.  “If” yesterday’s rally follows through NFLX could  move up to 320-325.     Risk: 209
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Alphabet (GOOG: 1064) Did not drop to my “Bounce” point target  of 1,021.  Low was 1,031 before rebounding to1,064.   Overhead supply starts 1,084. Breaking that would give it a shot at 1,123.  Risk: 950
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Apple (AAPL: 191)   Did not drop to my “bounce” point target of 183. Low was 187.   Closed at 191.  Overhead supply now starts 206     Risk: 173
Note: support/resistance levels change frequently.
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THE MARKET TODAY
     
All three major market averages (DJII, SP 500 and Nasdaq Comp.) have retraced two-thirds of the Oct. 24 – Nov. 11 rally, and rebounded to close at their highs for the day.
      The bulls should be able to launch a nice rally from here, failure to do so would be a sign of serious weakness.
       However, when the news flow becomes laced with new negatives, it is hard for the market to generate sustained rallies. 
       News that only a framework trade agreement with China is possible in coming months is a turnoff.
       The looming possibility Special Counsel Robert Mueller will indict key Trump administration individuals, as well as Wikileaks founder Julian Assange indicates the investigation has entered its final phase….and it won’t be pretty.
         The pattern here has similarities with Nixon’s Watergate scandal, which contributed to a recession/bear market along with the OPEC oil embargo.
         Today’s equivalent to the oil embargo is our trade war.
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      TECHNICAL OBSERVATION:

     A technical bounce was overdue, the big question is, are bulls  powerful enough to run stocks much higher ?  Their problem is they keep running into new negatives.
      The pendulum has swung from frothy bullishness to a string of unsettling news.  Money managers seem to be holding off on new buys, even selling, especially the popular growth stocks, which have already been  hammered.
      Pre-open futures trading indicates a soft open. That’s bad news for the bulls who are on the ropes and can’t take  another hit before panicking.
      If the bulls have any meaningful clout, they will override the early selling and run stocks up after 10 a.m..  Failure at this juncture would result in another leg down.
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SUPPORT “today:  DJIA:25,103; S&P 500:2,709; Nasdaq Comp.:7,208
RESISTANCE “today”: DJIA:25,478; S&P 500: 2,748: Nasdaq Comp.:7,295

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Technical Note: Frequently, there is what I refer to as a mid-afternoon counter move (2:30 – 3:00 where the market rallies or declines against the prevailing trend for the day.   This can be a fake out for investors thinking the market has turned (up or down).
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        A. Gary Shilling  just turned bearish in his November issue, headlining his issue of “INSUGHT“ with “Looming Recession ?”   I have tracked Shilling for decades. He nailed the 2007 – 2009 Great Recession Bear Market before anyone else. For him to suddenly turn negative is  a shocker.  He details his reasons in a 50-page analysis that  is overwhelming in detail and backed up with stats and graphs. No one in my experience has more economic/investing integrity than Shilling. 
 
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IMPORTANT NOTE:
>
Through September, this bull market is 116 months old, or 3.5 times longer than the average of the last  15  bull markets..
>Bear markets start 6 – 12 months ahead of the onset of a recession.  
>Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House
>The current economic expansion has lasted 123 months. That’s 65 months (2.1x) longer than the average expansion (58.4 months) going back to 1945.
>Of the 10 recessions since 1950,the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was 3.8 Months.
> Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months. 
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Bear Market Perspective

      Officially, we are not in a bear market until the S&P 500 declines 20% (2,352).  That would translate into DJIA 21,560 – “ouch” !
       That’s the minimum drop for a bear, but the last two bears crushed the S&P 500 by 57% (2007-2009) and 50% (2000-2002).  
My bear market target would be declines of
      DJIA: 18,500 (-31.4%)
      S&P 500 :  2,150 (-27.0%)
      Nasdaq Comp.:5,200 (-36.1%)
      But, depending on what new negatives hit the market when it gets down there, the bear market could reach much, much  lower levels.
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EARNINGS GROWTH MYTH:
       The Street is counting on earnings growth to reduce the overvaluation of equities.   Look again.

       A 20% increase in S&P 500 earnings this year will  be tough to beat next year.  The quarter versus year ago quarters in 2019 will make poor reading going up against the 2018 earnings, possibly earnings growth around  5%. But the Street is not factoring in the likelihood of a recession, which could mean negative growth.
       At times, politics has little impact on the big  picture. This time is different.

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BULLISH CASE
      A sharp increase in corporate earnings is what the bulls are relying on to power the market higher.
      Q2 earnings increased 25.0% over a year ago.
      Thomson Reuters projects Q3’s increase in earnings to  hit 20.5% and Q4 18.0%.
      However 2019 is a different story with earnings increases of Q1: +7.0%, Q2: +5.1%, Q3: +5.9% and Q4: +3.9%, that averages out to +5.4%.
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BEARISH CASE
RISING INTEREST RATES:
      >The Fed is persistently raising its benchmark interest rate (federal funds), as well as reducing its inflated balance sheet,  which will drive other rates higher, which will adversely impact interest sensitive industries.  . 
      >The 10-year treasury has been rising steadily and now stands at 3.09%.
      > The yield curve is flattening as short-term treasuries rise faster than long-tern governments just another warning sign of impending recession.
 OVERVALUED MARKET
      > The onset of bear markets have led the beginning of recessions by 8.5 months going back to 1956, so don’t look for a recession to signal a bear market. The longest lead time was 13 months (1968 – 1969) The “mode” (most frequent) is 12 months.
       > If companies are buying back their own stock at a record clip, pushing stocks higher, why then are insiders selling $8 of stock for every $1 of stock they buy ?
       .> Companies took advantage of low interest rates to load up on debt in recent years for acquisitions and to buy back their own stock. Excluding banks, the tally is $6.3trillion. The downside of this comes when these companies will need to refinance this debt at higher interest rates when it comes due.
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       > The S&P 500 price to sales ratio at 2.30 is 40% higher than in 2007 before the devastating bear market, and is even higher than in March 2000 before the dot-com bubble burst leading to a bear market. Both bear markets dropped 50%.
       > The Shiller P/E is 31.5  times earnings versus a mean of 16.6.  Shiller’s P/E is based on  inflation adjusted earnings over 10 years.
       > The Total Market Capitalization to GDP  stands at 147.3%, anything above 115% is  considered “overvalued.”
        > Thompson Reuters reports the S&P 500 sells at 18.1 times earnings and 16.2 times a year from now. All this versus a 10-year average of 14.3.
AGING BULL MARKET:
       > The bull market is now  nine years and six months old (115 months).  That’s 3.5 times the average of the last 15 bull markets.
AGING ECONOMIC EXPANSION:
      > Republicans – the recession party. Nine of last 10 recession have been with a Republican in the White House.  Odds favor Trump will make 10 for 11.
      > The current economic expansion has lasted 112 months. That’s 53 months (1.9 x) longer than the average expansion going back to 1945.  Nine out of the last 10 recessions have occurred with a Republican in the White House.
      > Of the 10 recessions since 1950, the average time between the low point in the unemployment rate and the start of a recession was just 3.8 months. 
      > Housing stocks have been in a prolonged slump since January. The iShares  home construction ETF has dropped 20.5%, as interest rates rise. Not only is it  major employer, its health affects other industries, especially furniture and appliances..
      > Household debt increased for the 16th straight quarter to 13.3 trillion, that’s 19%  above the post-financial-crisis low.
      > Jamie Dimon, CEO J.P. Morgan Chase,  thinks the benchmark  10-yearTreasury note , now 2.95%, should be 5%. The rate impacts lending for autos, mortgages and businesses.
      > Personal loans have soared   18% to  a record 120 billion, Personal savings as percent of disposable income at 3%, down from 9% in 2012.
      > Low interest rates have encouraged US companies to go on a debt binge, amassing  $6.3 trillion. With rates on the increase, refinancing will get more costly, according to S&P analyst, Andrew Chang, who points out that this amounts to $8 for every $1 in cash.
      > Recently, 1,100 economists WARN Trump is repeating biggest mistakes of Great Depression – tariffs, trade protectionism, according to conservative National Taxpayers’ Union.
      > Former Fed Chair, Ben Bernanke, says economy to fall off a cliff in 2020, thanks to the $1.5 trillion corporate and individual tax cut and $300 billion increase in spending.              
TRUMP’S TRADE WAR TANTRUM
      > Trump’s tariff tiff costing  US companies a bundle:  The damage extends to manufacturers, input suppliers, fishermen, and numerous businesses who are finding it more difficult to sell abroad.
      > Today’s businesses are complex, especially supply chains that can involve a thousand parts that make up a whole product, many of which are sourced from different countries, sometimes crossing back and forth across the same border a number of times.
      >  Trump is considering leaving World Trade Organization (WTO).
TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IMPLODING:
      So far, the stock market has not wavered in face of the increasing likelihood, Trump and many present and former associates are in legal trouble.
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POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET

Now is the time for the Republican-controlled Senate to do the American thing and protect the Special Counsel from  President Trump’s effort to undermine it.  This is no longer politics in general, this is about whether or not we are a nation of laws. Failure to do that, and I am convinced certain members of Congress are constitutional anarchists determined to destroy our republic.
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Rogue wave…. or monstrous blue wave ?
Real Americans are rising up to save our republic, and all the quality of life things worked and died for over the years.   After 2020, the right wing Republicans will be irrelevant, forced to climb back under the rock from which they emerged.
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What in the  Hell is wrong with us ?  These Central American peoples of all ages are willing to trek thousands of miles to attempt to enter America, and we are sending troops to back up border control to deny them legal entrance.  SHAME on our President, the selfish Republican party.  By their admirable efforts, they are demonstrating the kind of resolve we want in our workforce.
Christian ?   No, freaking way.  Our leaders are the epitome of  the  anti-Christ !  Hypocrites and un-American at heart ! 
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Trump has proposed a  5 percent budget cut for each Cabinet agency yesterday.
     Wait just a minute ! Didn’t Congress pass a $1.3trillion catchall spending bill earlier in the year after passing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in December, which gave corporations a 40% tax cut, and was skewed heavily in favor of big earners with the rest of the country getting a cut around 1%.
      According to the Treasury Dept. the federal deficit for FY Sept. 30 was $779 billion, up 17% from a year ago primarily due to the shortfall in revenues from corporations as a result of their huge tax cuts.
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Bath Iron Works (Maine) Gets $3.9 billion Navy Award 7 days before Sen. Collin’s “Yes” Vote for Kavanaugh
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      Reecntly, Bill Palmer, PalmerReports.com, gave his reason why Nikki Haley resigned from her post as United Nations Ambassador.
       The story was carried in more detail by the Business Insider.com, which points to her resignation one day after Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) requested the State Dept. investigate her acceptance of seven free flights aboard private jets  from three South Carolina business men.
      While she listed the flights on her 2017 financial disclosure, the information was incomplete according to CREW and did not qualify for an exemption.
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       Breaking: Concern that right wingers are set to rewrite the United States Constitution via an Article V Convention, or Amendments Convention, called by two-thirds of the state legislatures (34).  A three-quarter vote is required for an amendment to become part of the Constitution.   Reportedly, right wingers want to convert our system of government to a confederation of “supreme” states, essentially minimizing the present amount of federal control.
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Trump in hot water on tax evasion and the legitimacy of his inheritance ?
We’ll see !!
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     Since Deputy Atty Gen’l Rod Rosenstein would not fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller, assuming Trump first fired Rosenstein.
     On November 8, 2017, I noted Brian Benczkowski was nominated by President Trump in June [2017] to be U.S. Assistant Attorney General for the Criminal Division. Along party lines, he was confirmed by the Senate recently, raising the question would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein was fired and he  was appointed in his place. He said he would not recuse himself from  questions in the Mueller investigation.
     The big question mark here is that Benczkowski had represented Russia’s Alfa Bank at some point in the past and had no prosecutorial experience.  He had worked for Atty Gen’l Jeff Sessions and the Bush administration and was not opposed by Rosenstein.
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     Palmerreport.com believes Roger Stone will be the next person indicted/arrested by Special Counsel Robert Mueller.
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  As if Trump did not have enough problems, here comes Allen Weisselberg, long-time CFO of the Trump Organization and now a recipient of “immunity” from  the Attorney General of New York.
       This is especially significant, notes PalmerReports.com, since he is testifying about state level charges in addition to federal charges, which cannot be nullified by a Trump pardon.
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      NO ATTORNEY CLIENT PRIVILEGE: Palmerreport.com reminds readers that Trump has NO attorney-Client privilege with Ty Cobb who he hired on July 14, 2017 to help with the Russia scandal. To save personal funds, Trump put Cobb on the White House payroll, so Cobb is free to disclose any information Special Counsel Mueller wants him to.
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  I expect Attorney General Sessions to be fired or to resign any day now.  That puts Deputy Atty. Gen. Rod Rosenstein in jeopardy.  Will Brian Benszkowski be moved in the fill the void. Would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein were fired ?
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HEADS UP !   A majority vote in both the House and Senate can change the number of Justices on the Supreme Court. The number is fixed by statute, not by the Constitution. It has ranged between 6 and 10 since 1789.
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DAMN  IT !   I miss decency.
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“President” Trump has made 4,229 false (lies) and misleading claims since his inauguration. (Washington Post). …………………………………………………………………   
WOULD ANYONE WANT their spouse to lie repeatedly ?, their child ?, mother ?, father ?, minister ?, child’s teacher ?,  coach ?, employer ?.  IF NOT, why would they support President Trump who is on record with telling 4.5 lies per day, 2,000 lies since his inauguration on January 20 ?. 
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Trump boasts about the stock market in his first 31 months as President, but the S&P 500 appreciated 149% during President Obama’s first 31 months in office, 2 ½ times as it advanced under Trump, and Obama inherited the worst stock market/economic collapse since the 1930s, Trump inherited a strong stock market and economic recovery.
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The U.S. Chamber of Commerce currently estimates the impact of Trump tariffs on the following states stand to be: Louisiana ($5.2 bil.), Washington ($5.7 bil.), Texas ($1.4 bil.), S. Carolina ($2.6 bil.), Illinois ($2.1 bil.), California ($4.0 bil.), Kentucky ($917 mil.), Michigan (842 mil.), Ohio ($826 mil.).
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Orwellian: George Orwell’s 1984 wretched society was controlled by denial of the truth,  the dissemination of  misinformation, propaganda, and surveillance, i.e., Big Brother is watching.    “Just remember what you are seeing  and what you are reading is not what’s happening.” Trump  told the VFW July 24
“The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears…” George Orwell’s  dystopian novel – “1984”  published in 1949.
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A recent Gallup poll shows  how  people polled  would vote if the election were held today
Democrats      30%
Republicans   26%
Independents 40%

The key here is twofold. The Democrats must get their vote out, which may be difficult in face of Republican voter suppression. Then too, they need to get a lot  of the Independent vote, which will be helped as Americans see the Trump administration gut treasured institutions, regulations designed to ensure a better environment in the future, healthcare, and undermine time-tested, valued global alliances while cultivating the favor of enemies.
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Special Counsel Robert Mueller  must comply with regulations, rules, procedures, and policies of the Department of Justice as set forth in 28 CFR 600. He can only be removed for misconduct, dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, or other good cause, including violation of the Department’s policy.
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What Trump and his base have in common: They both deplore the same people – people of color, the handicapped, liberals, foreigners.
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VOTES FLIPPED for TRUMP  in Key States in 2016
      Daily Kos’ Aldous Pennyfarthing (Pen name for Tom Breuer)  gave reasons in Alternet.org, July 27, why he thinks the Russians [or someone] flipped votes for Trump in 2016.
      The basis for this conclusion was comparing exit polls with actual outcome in North Carolina Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
 Pennsylvania: Exit polls Clinton 50.5 – Trump 46.1.  Result: Clinton 46.1 –   Trump 48.8.
Wisconsin: Exit poll Clinton 48.2 – Trump 44.3  Result: Clinton 47.6 – Trump 48.8.
North Carolina: Exit poll Clinton  48.6 – Trump 46.5. Result: Clinton 46.1 – Trump 49.9.
      An FOI suit by Bradley Moss (cybersecurity lawyer) brought against the government  revealed Russians hacked inside voting systems in seven big states.
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Wake up out there. These aren’t conservative Republicans, they are anarchists, extremists  who have wrested control of the Republican party over the last 20 years and are intent on a party rule with no checks and balances.  This is  a bloodless coup.
If  they can lock up control of both Houses, the Presidency, Supreme Court and strategic lower court appointments, and a major news media broadcaster, survival of our republic will depend on whose side the military and police forces take.
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 Sinclair Broadcast Group  (BEWARE !)   
      Sinclair Broadcast Group is using its clout as owner of  193 television stations in 80 markets as a lever to manipulate local station viewers’ minds pitching it’s right wing propaganda. Viewers tend to trust local stations programing over national networks.  A July 16, 2018 FCC decision denied Sinclair’s acquisition of the Tribune Broadcast Group, which would have expanded its reach into New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago markets
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 Sinclair Bank (no relation to the broadcast  group) has surfaced as a lender to Michael Cohen, Jared Kushner, his father and Trump.  Ivanka Trump no longer on board. 
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        Treason is defined by Article 3, section 3: Treason, as levying war against the U.S., or in adhering to its enemy, namely aid and comfort, also defined as any act that deliberately strengthens or tends to strengthen enemies of the U.S. or that weakens the power of the U.S. to resist and attack such enemies.
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TRUMP’S BASE:  Some voted for Trump because they always vote Republican. Then there are those whose opinions are based on emotional disorders, those who will never accept the truth no matter what (Confirmation Bias); those who accept bad behavior as the norm (Deviancy Down); and those who while stupid, ill informed who actually believe they are highly intelligent, competent (Dunning Krueger). These people don’t have enough knowledge to know they don’t have enough knowledge, i.e.,too dumb to know they are dumb.(alternet.com 7/23/18)
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July 19, 2018: Republicans refuse to renew election security funding over Russian hacking – Democrats livid, as all of us should be. 
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The Dept. of Justice charged a Russian national, Mariia Butina, of illegally trying to influence American politics using the NRA, religious organizations  as a means of gaining backchannel access to the highest levels of the Republican Party.  Mother Jones says  Butina acted as a covert Russian agent, an unregistered foreign agent.
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      Since Deputy Atty Gen’l Rod Rosenstein would not fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller,   assuming Trump first fired Rosenstein.
     On November 8, I noted Brian Benczkowski was nominated by President Trump in June [2017] to be U.S. Assistant Attorney General for the Criminal Division. Along party lines, he was confirmed by the Senate recently, raising the question would he fire Mueller if Rosenstein was fired and he  was appointed in his place. He said he would not recuse himself from  questions in the Mueller investigation.
     The big question mark here is that Benczkowski had represented Russia’s Alfa Bank at some point in the past and had no prosecutorial experience.  He had worked for Atty Gen’l Jeff Sessions and the Bush administration and was not opposed by Rosenstein.

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A “MALEVOLENT FOOL” – Lt. Col. , Ret’d, Ralph Peters, ex-Fox analyst referring to Trump.   Malevolent: evil, harmful, injurious.
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Un-American ! Trump claims writers of U.S. Constitution treated Him unfairly, adding we have the worst constitution writers in the world…Russia has better constitution writers than we do, says Trump . “I talked with Putin, and he said their constitution never gives him problems.” Andy Borowitz, (The Borowitz Report).
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      WE DON”T WANT TO GO THERE !  The Trump administration is taking the United States straight to a place none of us wants to be – civil unrest,  an extended recession, a fiscal crisis where we can’t pay our bills, ergo the need to slash healthcare, safety net programs, a host of programs that have improved our quality of life.
      This administration’s actions on trade (tariffs, TPP), the intentional divisiveness of America along racial lines, and abandonment of our long-time allies have opened the door for China to dominate the world, economically and militarily.  That’s Un-American.  This has to be stopped.
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Republican strategist, Steve Schmidt, leaves Republican Party after 29 years, saying the party is “corrupt, indecent and immoral,” and with a few exceptions  elected  Republicans are “feckless cowards who disgrace and dishonor the legacies of the party’s greatest leaders.” Others quitting Republican Party: George Will, “Morning” Joe Scarborough. To date, 35 senior Trump advisers have left.
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President Donald Trump is NOT pro-business, he’s pro-Trump
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TRUMP EXIT STRATEGY: The most important thing for King Donald is his image.  Currently he is scrambling to initiate as many perceived accomplishments as possible (taxes, anti-immigrant, anti-allies, deregulation, North Korea, Iran, ISIS, unemployment).
      This way, if he is impeached, defeated in 2020, or forced to resign, he can claim to have been the greatest president of all-time – he’ll tweet it relentlessly, deviancy-downed Americans will believe it and every network in the country, whores that they are, (including MSNBC and CNN) will scramble to cover his tweets.  IMHO: he won’t risk losing in 2020, just not run – declare he has accomplished his mission and walk away.
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POSSIBLE ! That the blue wave won’t happen in November.  Why? The American voter is still zoned out about what is happening – too busy with other stuff, not capable of  objectively analyzing issues accurately without bias.
     The result: The extremist Republicans and their president will run the economy, a constructive foreign relations policy, and America’s quality of life into the ground.  In order to get the American voter’s attention, we have to hit bottom first.
      That means an extended recession, a fiscal crisis (unable to pay bills), a 65% drop in the stock market and,  national unrest greater than that which the Vietnam War attracted.
       We are witnessing the unfolding of  the biggest scandal in our country’s history, including illegal financial transactions, vote tampering and  untethered collusion and obstruction of  justice at the highest level.  This may take years to unravel.
      Again, I say “possible,” not probable..  Probable would be all that but not as severe.
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Corporations got a 40% tax cut, John and Jane Q get a 1.2% – 1.8% cut, even so, Trump plans to introduce a “rescission package” to cut $15 billion in already approved spending on the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation program, as well as 30 other programs. The  U.S. House will likely approve his  rescission  package, the Senate may not.
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According to Bloomberg.com, 1,100 economists warn that Trump is repeating one of the biggest mistakes of the Great Depression – tariffs and trade protectionism. The warning came in a letter from the conservative-leaning National Taxpayers Union.
      China loves it !  Trump opened the door, China entered, capitalizing on Trump’s regressive “America First” mantra, with its far reaching Belt and Road outreach with investments encompassing infrastructure, education, construction materials, rail and hi-way, auto, real estate, power grid and iron and steel investments to 68 countries, 65% of the world’s population and 40% of global GDP.
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      Kim took Trump’s war with North Korea option off the table, so looks like Trump now has his sights set on IRAN – to please his base, of course, in time for the mid-terms, of course
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North Korea give up nuclear weapons ?  Never !  Kim wants a global stage, so does Trump, who will not risk being embarrassed by the little tyrant. Trump will bail.  He needs a villain to trash to please his base. Kim has what he wants.  I think Trump has been played like a harp. 
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Impeachment of Trump unlikely with this Republican House. Trump has surrounded himself with newly appointed Cabinet members, so Section 4 of the 25th amendment is not a reality.   What’s left ?  A deal with Mueller for his RESIGNATION ?
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Must Read: “Will Christian Nationalism Drive Trump’s Base to the Polls in November ?”  Truthout April 15, Bill Berkowitz. This explains why his base of Christians votes for an immoral person, one whose behavior is the antithesis of the teachings of Christ.
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Will Trump  Fire Mueller

      Trump can’t fire Mueller directly, it must be done by the Department of Justice.  Trump would have to find someone to do it.  Nixon did it in 1973 when he had to work through two attorney generals until  his solicitor general, Robert Bork fired Special Prosecutor Archibald Cox. 
      Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein isn’t going to do it, so Trump must find someone from DOJ , or someone outside who has already been confirmed by the Senate who will do it.         Philip Bump, Washington Post (WAPO) April 10, did a great job outlining possibilities in, “Why Trump can’t fire Mueller – at least not directly.”  I can only touch on a few of his points here.
       In his article, Georgetown University’s professor Paul Butler raises the interesting point that  firing Mueller may not be necessary if  Rosenstein is replaced by someone hostile to the Special Counsel’s investigation.  He would simply force a stall with lots of demands, even leak information to the White House.   
       REASONS NEEDED TO FIRE MUELLER: Trump would have to have  good reason to fire Mueller.  Grounds must be, misconduct, dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, or other good cause, including violation of policies of the Department of Justice, and failure to follow Justice Departments guidelines and violation of applicable canons of ethics.
       CAN TRUMP RESCIND  SPECIAL COUNSEL REGULATION ?  Yes, it’s possible but many legal hurdles  would make it difficult and possibly so time consuming as to make the action worthless. There is no clear cut answer. This would be decided in court, the legal ramifications just very complex.
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FISCAL CRISIS LOOMS IN FUTURE:  Headlines:“Federal debt primed to explode”….”U.S. Deficit to Surpass $1 Trillion Two Years Ahead of Estimates”….”This Year’s budget deficit to hit $804 B after tax cuts and spending hikes”….
       This is all a Republican scheme to justify massive spending cuts to social, health, educational  and safety net programs. It is called “Starving the Beast,” and will lead to debilitating and prolonged recession/bear market, increased crime, rioting and civil unrest.  Republicans set the stage with massive, unnecessary tax cuts and a big budget spend (see below: “Corporate Tax Cut Irresponsible”)
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Cambridge Analytica (now in bankruptcy) is center stage again. Palmer.com  reports  someone behind the scenes is trying to block  Britain’s  Channel 4 News from airing an expose  into Cambridge’s role in using  Facebook (FB) to influence voters to vote for Trump and not Clinton.  On Friday,  Facebook  banned Cambridge’s access.  Palmer speculates the Mercers are behind the  attempt to prevent Channel 4’s expose.  I was on  Cambridge’s case back on June 22, 2017,  noting that billionaire Robert Mercer was connected to Cambridge through Canada’s Aggregate IQ through an intellectual property agreement and worked to influence voting  in the Brexit referendum.  Aggregate is a data mining company.  While Aggregate denies any connection,  the story won’t go away. Palmer sees a connection between Cambridge and John Bolton’s SUPER PAC.  Palmer notes that UK Parliament is investigating  the connection between Cambridge and Brexit and documents referred to by Cambridge whistleblower Christopher Wylie reveal  the firm gave stolen Facebook  user data to Bolton’s PAC  (receiving stolen goods ?), though it is not known how Bolton used the data if his PAC even received it.  (See below: Mercer on the run ?) …………………………………………….
Remember the name Felix Sater, former business associate of Trump, convicted  Russian mafia money laundering figure, and key FBI informant.
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Another name to watch is Ted Malloch who Palmer.com reports was served a subpoena relating to the Trump/Russia probe.  Malloch is a U. S. citizen living in London with close tire to Roger Stone, Brexit leader Nigel Farage and the Trump campaign.  As noted above in Cambridge Analytica, there is a connection to parties involved in Brexit and Trump’s campaign.
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George Nader  has long-standing ties in the Mid-East and Washington over many years.  What appears to be important here is he is cooperating with the Mueller probe not as a wrongdoer, but as a source of information.  He has had ties with the Trump administration through Steve Bannon  and reportedly attended a meeting in the Seychelles Islands January 11, 2017 along with Blackwater founder and former Trump associate, Eric Prince, and Kirill Dmitriev head of a U.S. sanctioned investment firm with close ties to Putin.  Reportedly Nader represented United Arab Emirates’ Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan.
      I referred to the Seychilles meeting on April 5, 2017 noting  the Washington Post reported the meeting was intended to encourage Russia to curtail support for Iran and Syria (Trump wish list) in exchange for lifting U.S. sanctions on Russia.
We’ll see.
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“Protecting guns and profits have become more important than protecting the lives of young people” Henry A. Giroux, Truthout ,  March 4.
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Why are so many Americans beholden to guns ? It could be their sense of security was rocked by 9/11 plus the Great Recession/Bear Market.  Then it could be racial, a fear that people of different colors will eventually outnumber them, prompting  the need (in their paranoid minds) to stage a forceful change in governance (revolution).  This makes little sense, but from their point of  simplemindedness, they feel more secure with a dozen guns and cases of ammunition in house just in case.
     What these whackos don’t understand is they can’t use their guns outside of their homes for fear of injuring or killing an innocent person which not only sends them to jail, but opens them up to a lawsuit where they lose their stock portfolio, car, house and all those “blankies” that  go bang.  ………………………………………

 A quasi-fascist state would give Trump the untethered power he craves.
Read: The Ghost of Fascism in the Age of Trump
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/43529-the-ghost-of-fascism-in-the-age-of-trump
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U.S. Ranking globally and domestically is plunging under Trump
      Global approval of U.S. leadership from 134 countries has plunged to 30% from 48% in just a year.  Clearly, Trump isn’t making America Great Again in the eyes of all other countries.  The downside of this is we need the support of those countries.  Our nationalistic policies are opening doors throughout the world for China. A Gallup poll shows Germany replacing the U.S. as the top-rated power in the world.
      Under Trump, the United States has dropped to 11th place in the Bloomberg Innovation Index, which in addition  to  R&D spending, includes post secondary, or tertiary, education-efficiency category, which includes the share of new science and engineering graduates. Value-added manufacturing also dropped.  South Korea ranked first, followed by Sweden, Singapore, Germany, Switzerland, Japan, Finland, Denmark, France, Israel.
       Also under Trump, Americans’ trust in institutions (government, companies and the  media) has suffered the greatest loss on record according to a poll conducted by Edelman New York. The poll, including 33,000 “informed” individuals showed the U.S. dropping to 43 out of a possible 100, down 23 points in a year.  He is a human wrecking ball.
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CORPORATE TAX CUT IRRESPONSIBLE
“It's pure fantasy to think that the tax bill will lead to significantly higher wages and growth, as Republicans have promised,” Bloomberg continued. Had Congress actually listened to executives, or economists who study these issues carefully, it might have realized that. The tax bill is an economically indefensible blunder that will harm our future” –   Michael Bloomberg – billionaire business man former mayor NYC

      I don’t doubt some corporations need, and deserve a tax cut, but to reduce the rate from 35% to 21% is inexcusable, reckless, unjustifiable, and outright subversive to the best interests of America.
      Corporate income taxes comprise 9% of federal government receipts. If corporate taxes are slashed by 40% (from 35% to 21%), the government’s receipts from corporations are reduced by 3.6% from 9%.
      Individual income tax payments comprise 47% of  federal government receipts. At this point, I have no idea how much of an impact  Congress’ tax cuts will have on this source of federal revenues, but it stands to be significant.
      The Republican administration expects economic growth will be triggered by a sudden change in heart by corporations to abandon stock buybacks and the repatriation of billions stashed abroad to plug the big hole left in federal receipts by tax cuts with a surge in hiring and capital expenditures.
      That assumption is flawed. For one, why would a corporation  go on a hiring and cap-ex spending spree  with an economic expansion that  is 8-1/2 years old, 3 years longer (73%) than the average over 65 years (1945 – 2009).
      For another, are they naïve enough to assume there will be no recessions within the next 10 years ?
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Mercer on the run ?  Bannon and Breitbart bankroller, Robert Mercer is rapidly severing financial ties to Breitbart News and support of Steve Bannon and alt-right’s Milo Yiannopoulos. Mercer was a major supporter of Sen. Ted Cruz’s effort to gain the Republican nomination last year, but switched his allegiance to Trump when he won the nomination.
      In my March 21 post, I wrote, “Years from now, I suspect Mercer will be relaxing at his Long Island waterfront retreat, Owl’s Nest, or on his 200-foot yacht, Sea Owl, and look back over his illustrious career tarnished  by one regret – he backed the biggest con job in our nation’s history.”
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Red states In need of Fed government help the most
Six states (Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Utah, Wisconsin),  are planning to require poverty stricken people on Medicaid  to get jobs  or lose the coverage. Maine, Utah and Wisconsin want to put a time limit on coverage, the latter wants to drug-test people. Excluded: People with long-tern disabilities, the elderly, and children.  Isn’t it bad enough these people are in poverty ? 
      Vox Media reports that 9.8 million Medicaid recipients  don’t have jobs  due to: Illness/disabled (35%), retired (8%), taking care of home or family (28%), going to school (18%), cannot find work (8%). The remaining 60.2 million Americans on Medicaid work full-time of part-time.  I’m not sure what’s the Republican beef here.
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TRUMP’S PARDON POWER
     The President has the power to grant conditional pardons; to commute sentences; remit fines and forfeitures; and grant amnesty. This power can be exercised at any time after the offense has been committed, before conviction of after. Pardons cannot be limited by or controlled by legislative action (US legal.com)
Expect Trump to attempt to pardon anyone he wants, including himself. It’s a way out of facing responsibility very much like dodging the draft. Like when he justified his numerous bankruptcies, saying he only used U.S. laws to his advantage.  Well, “pardons” are his prerogative, in many, not all cases. He would take advantage of whatever loophole to avoid consequences, sort of like dodging the draft, or did I already say that ?
     The President cannot pardon people for “state” crimes, and it is doubtful he can pardon himself.
      Can the Mueller investigation survive Mueller’s firing ?
Slate.com’s July 21 article, “Trump can’t Escape the States,” says “YES.”
1-A state [NY] could hire Mueller and team.
2-State attorneys general could use their quo warranto power to investigate Trump’s organization for fraud and money laundering from Russian sources.
3-A Congressional committee (Senate Intelligence Committee) could hire Mueller or create a Joint select Committee.
4-Congress could pass a new veto-proof independent counsel statute.
FINALLY: If Trump resigns and Pence takes over, Pence could pardon Trump, as Ford did Nixon.
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THE GREAT AMERICAN EXPERIMENT UNDER SEIGE:  Not since the Civil War has the spirit and future of our nation been at such great risk, from within.  This  administration, Congress and U.S. Supreme Court is surgically dismembering  efforts over many years to ensure the safety  and well being of “all” Americans.
     The sooner, Americans recognize these are not genuine Republican conservatives, but extremists determined dismantle that which has been achieved over the years and replace it with “their” brand  of a  quasi-fascist state.  Ben Franklin was right when asked what kind of government  the Founding Fathers had given us.  “A Republic, if you can keep it,” was his response.
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TRUMP looking for a “Get Out Of Jail Free Card if the Feds close in?”
    Why not, he dodged military service with 5 deferments  during the Vietnam era (1964 – 1970).
     Reportedly, he has asked advisers about his power to pardon family members and himself  relating to Mueller’s investigation.
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WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE INVESTIGATION IS COMPLETED ? If the Special Counselor  concludes it is “necessary and appropriate” he is authorized to prosecute federal crimes arising out of the investigation, which he does after submitting a report to the attorney general explaining his reasons.

REASONS NEEDED TO FIRE MUELLER:  Misconduct,  dereliction of duty, incapacity, conflict of interest, good cause (??), violation of Department policies.
WOULD MUELLER BE REPLACED ? Unclear. If the Democrats controlled Congress they could appoint another Special Counselor
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  “Connect the Dots.” This investigation is open-ended. These are people were part of the Trump team, or in a position to know information relating to activities before or after the 2016 election, though  not necessarily in any way guilty of any wrongdoing.
       Nigel Farage – President Trump- Hope Hicks, Jeffrey Sessions – Robert Mercer – Cambridge Analytics – Bannon- Carter Page – Kushner (Jared and Ivanka) – Eric Prince – Donald, Jr.  and Eric Trump – Wilbur Ross –  Michael Cohen – Ezra Cohen Watnick – Michael T. Flynn – Michael G. Flynn ( son)  – JD Gordon  –  Christopher Steele – Michael Caputo -Breitbart News – Roger Stone – Julian Assange – Paul Manafort – Rick Gates – Jill Stein – Sam Clovis –  Kellyanne and George Conway –Dana Rohrabacher – Bill Browder – Peter W. Smith (deceased: suicide), Paul Behrends – Brad Parscale – Sam Nunberg – Dan Scavino – Keith Schiller –  Alex Van Der waan – Ted Malloch -Boris Epshteyn, Ike Kaveladze, and  Russia’s alfa Group – Felix Sater – Rob Goldstone – alfa Group – Emin Agalarov – Sergey Gorkov –  Sergey Kislyak, ambassador to the U.S., Natalia Veselnitskaya, Oleg Deripaska all connect directly or indirectly to the Trump/Russia investigation and some have a connection to Brexit, as well.
      According to the “Observer,” Mercer’s Cambridge Analytica was connected with Canada’s AggregateIQ through an intellectual property agreement and worked together on the Brexit referendum. Aggregate is also a data mining company. While Mercer was a big supporter of Trump, there is no known connection between AggregateIQ and Trump’s campaign staff.
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 REMOVING TRUMP FROM  OFFICE
Can Section 4 of the 25th Amendment, U.S. Constitution – Remove Trump ?
      It’s a stretch.  The key for his removal is ”that he is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.”  Section 4 mentions nothing  that he is unfit, delusional, unbalanced, crazy,  impulsive, irrational, impaired, sociopathic, psychopathic, narcissistic.
      That would be the threshold that would have to be crossed if Trump is removed from office via Section 4 of the 25th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. There is no precedent

      It isn’t just Democrats, liberals, moderates and reasonable people who find Trump caustic, and dangerous, conservatives like George Will, David Brooks and Ross Douthart are also urging his removal.
      First, there are four ways to get rid of Trump – death, resignation, impeachment and Section 4 of the 25th Amendment.
      The procedure employing the 25th Amendment requires the Vice President and the majority of the cabinet of 15 (8) to vote to remove the president. They would submit their declaration in writing to the President pro tempore ( Sen. Orrin Hatch) and Speaker of the House (Paul Ryan) that the president is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, and the Vice President will immediately assume to office as acting president.
      However, the president may contend the move by submitting his own letter to the President pro tempore and Speaker of the House, that he believes he is capable of performing his duties, in which case he will resume the office of presidency.
       The Vice President and Cabinet members may then resubmit their declaration at which point Congress would vote within 48 hours if in session. If not, Congress  will act within 21 days where a two-thirds vote would be required to remove  him.  
        However, as “Business Insider.com” noted on Jan. 9, 2018, Trump could simply fire the Cabinet members who voted to oust him from office.
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IMPEACHMENT
      A  Consult/Politico poll shows 43% of Americans want Congress to begin procedures for the impeachment of President Trump.
      The U.S. Constitution  enables Congress to remove a president for “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.” Initially, the House votes on one or more articles of impeachment- if a majority vote is reached, he is impeached.  BUT, impeachment only means indictment. The Senate holds a trial overseen by the chief justice and Supreme Court. A group of House members serve as prosecutors and the Senate as jurors. If two-thirds of the senators find the president guilty, he is removed from office and the vice president takes over.
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Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com
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George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.