Dumbing Down – American Tradition ?

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open
DJIA:20,981
S&P 500: 2,402
Nasdaq  Comp.:6,149
Russell 2000: 1,393
Tuesday, May 16, 2017    9:08 a.m.
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        As I have emphasized over and over again, as long as the Street expects a major corporate tax cut and a big spend on the military and/or infrastructure, it will be bullish.

        There is a risk that the measures Trump proposes to juice the economy  will trigger one last wild speculative surge in the economy and stock market before a  recession hits.
       The current economic expansion starting in June 2009 is 96 months old compared with  the average of 58.4 months over the last 11 cycles ( 1945 – 2009).  However, it still has a bit to go to top the 1991 – 2001 expansion of 120 months.
TODAY
     
Yesterday I said, the DJIA needs to close above 21,000 and the S&P 500 above 2,400 to tip the scales in favor of the bulls.
      After hitting 21,000, the DJIA closed slightly lower but with a nice gain of 85 points.
      The S&P 500 closed slightly above 2,400 after hitting a new all-time high of 2,404.
The Nasdaq Comp. is in a world all by itself surging to a new high. The bulls stepped up to the plate yesterday after 13 days of consolidation. Odds favor a follow through today.
      May has historically marked a temporary high point for the market, followed by slippage in stock prices with intermittent rallies and sell offs until fall, but generally a good in and out trader’s market for the nimble.    
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SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,938;S&P 500:2,397; Nasdaq Comp.:6,136
RESISTANCE:“today”:DJIA:21,056;S&P500:2,411;NASDAQ Comp.:6,167

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CORPORATE EARNINGS
(updated  May 15, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 13.6%. Q2 growth  is projected at +6.8%, Q3 at +7.5%, and Q4 at +12.4%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 9.9%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.5 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0.
Note: These numbers change frequently.
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MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 5/15/17)
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  April 25, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,856 a more extreme risk is 20,703.Near-term upside potential is 21,333
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POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
      Yesterday Joe Scarborough (Morning Joe –  MSNBC) said he believes President Trump fired FBI director James Comey,  because Comey was getting close to exposing whatever criminal actions Trump has been trying to hide.
       That’s a strong allegation by Joe. What is new here is the word “criminal.” We have heard the word “collusion” a zillion times, but criminal takes this to a higher level, much higher.
       The whole issue of collusion would be hard to prove unless one of Trump’s  present or former team members (Manafort, Flynn, Sessions, Page, Stone) squeals.  Lower the boom on any of them, and anything is possible, including the end of the Trump fake presidency.
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PSYCHOLOGY 101 ?
     
The Trump presidency, has issued in a whole new set of psychological terms, none flattering to President Trump or the voters who put him in office.

CONFIRMATION BIAS:  the tendency to interpret, perceive, or recall information in a way that confirms one’s pre-existing  beliefs even when faced with irrefutable proof to the contrary.  Having a closed mind to one’s own peril would be another way of putting it. Is it sheer stupidity to vote against one’s best interests ?  Yes, but they do it all the time. Credit lack of information, or simply the inability to mentally and emotionally process information accurately and without bias.  
DEVIANCY DOWN:  A term originally used by the late Senator Patrick Moynihan to warn voters against accepting bad behavior, stupidity, demagoguery, lying, ignorance as the “norm.”
      Bloomberg’s Albert Hunt, wrote about it on May 14, referring to Trump critics being in awe when Trump gives a speech that is reasonably coherent or takes sensible action on something.  Suddenly  critics treat it as a momentous occasion, when in fact, it is what presidents are expected to do.
      Essentially, it is the dumbing down of a person’s behavior. This is partly responsible for Trump supporters and Republicans in Congress  accepting Trumps obnoxious behavior, uncharacteristic of past presidents.  In spite of all of Trump’s nonsensical bluster and tweets, even his critics are relieved when he has a moment of sanity, hopeful that a new Trump has emerged, one who acts presidential. Why is inferior behavior acceptable ? Don’t know, but my guess is people feel less inferior when a high level official like Trump acts inferior too.

DUNNING-KRUGER EFFECT: A cognitive bias whereby people of low mental or physical ability actually perceive themselves as excelling in those areas.  Columnist, George Will recently touched on this, concluding Trump suffers from a dangerous disability, not only because he’s ignorant, and ignorant of his ignorance, but because  he does not know what it is to know something.”  
      WOW !  You said that, George ?
  Another way to say it would be, a person who thinks they know everything but in fact don’t know what it is to know something. It’s a failure to recognize their own shortcomings, so they conclude they have none.  Unfortunately, in addition to being a narcissist, Trump falls into this category. Just because he has been successful in real estate and show business, he concludes he can be successful at anything.
      Voters in this category don’t feel they need to do any  research on qualifications or policies, they simply know how to vote, because they can’t make the wrong decision – too smart !
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HEALTHCARE:  NOW THE HOUSE REPUBLICANS OWN IT !
NOTE:
This is just the beginning and information is still sketchy. One excellent source is the Henry J. Kaiser Foundation (www.kff.org)
      The House narrowly passed the American Health Care Act (AHCA) last week by a vote of 217 to 213. 
      The House failed twice to pass a similar version. The bill was rushed through without pursuing standard practices – discussions and cost and consequence scoring, by the CBO.

      It now goes to the Senate where it will encounter changes and possibly rejection. Senator Susan Collins, Maine, says there is no timeline for Senate consideration, only that she expects the Senate to take its time and do it right.
      AHCA is not the law of the land yet. All this negativity and uncertainty must make it next to impossible for Insurance companies to project risk and coverage.  That in itself stands to press ACA to the edge.      

       Republicans will now move on to tax deform where it will tip the scales further in favor of corporations and upper income persons.

THE RISK !     

      If successful, this administration’s late-stage stimulus will set the stage for a huge shortfall in US government receipts, resulting in the need to gut  dozens of government programs that address need and quality of life.
        For the most part Republicans, greedy bankers and financial institutions gave us the “Great Recession/Bear Market” 2007-2009.  The next one will be worse, because the government will lack the fiscal stimuli to pull the country out of its depressed state. 
       Can’t happen ?   Weren’t safeguards imposed through Dodd-Frank to prevent another meltdown ?
       Yes, however the House voted Thursday to roll back many of those measures, which they claim have slowed down economic growth. This is the same pattern of corporate “permissiveness” that set the stage for the 2007 – 2009 crash. ”Read “Too Big To Fail” by Sorkin, just don’t make it bedtime reading. 

………………………………………………………………………
STARVE the BEAST  !
     Trump’s plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% from 35% would trigger a $2.4 trillion shortfall in government revenues, forcing massive cuts to government programs, as well as increased taxes in other areas to offset the loss.   

     This is an opportunity of a lifetime for Republicans to fulfill their dream to devastate social programs across the board, i.e. slash government income and there is no alternative but to gut government programs. 
      It’s called “Starve The Beast,” and will result in a vast reduction in the quality of life of most Americans, especially those who put Trump in office.
      Congress will waste little time seizing an opportunity of their lifetime – to ruthlessly, senselessly and wantonly dismember a system that works well without the intrusion of Republicans.

……………………………………………………………………
I AM KEEPING THE FOLLOWING ALIVE BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN UPSTAGED BY TRUMP’S 100-DAY STAMPEDE TO  SAVE FACE.
………………………………………………………..

PREUTERS WORLD NEWS APRIL 19, 4:20 PM
“A Russian government think tank controlled by Vladimir Putin developed a plan to swing the 2016 U.S. presidential election to Donald Trump and undermine voters’ faith in the American electoral system, three current and four former U.S. officials told Reuters.
      Russian documents appear to confirm what U.S. intelligence agencies have believed  all along that Russia influenced the outcome of our presidential election. 
      Yesterday, Reuters released documents, which were prepared by the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies[https://en.riss/], after the election that confirm this conclusion.
      It recommended that a, “propaganda campaign on social media and Russian backed global news outlets to encourage U.S. voters to elect a president who would take a softer line toward Russia than the administration of then-President Barach Obama, the seven officials said.”
     Additionally, a second institute document recommended Russia end its pro-Trump propaganda and intensify messaging about voter fraud to undermine the U.S. electoral system’s legitimacy and damage Clinton’s reputation.
      So far, investigations by U.S. institutions and Congress have not concluded collusion between Trump’s team and Russian operatives occurred.
     But U.S. investigations are still being conducted.
     I personally believe collusion DID take place, and odds are GOOD that it reaches far beyond collusion, that based on what I see and how people in the administration are acting.
……………………………………………………………….

TRUMP  – TOAST ?
      Just a hunch, but I think collusion regarding influencing the election is only part of something much bigger, like major league money transfers for options on oil investments, real estate holdings, and land deals. That’s why it is taking so much time.
      If we begin to see more and more of VP Pence, it may suggest the end for Trump is getting closer. Clearly, the inside knows something is about to break.  Trump is “toast,” IMVHO.
      There are so many people who know so much, and they are going to be watching out for number ONE, and that is not Donald Trump.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  April 14, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 13.5%. Q2 growth  is projected at +7.2%, Q3 at +7.7%, and Q4 at +12.5%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 10.0%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.5 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0. Energy is the big contributor to Q1, S&P 500 growth.  While its percentage growth rate cannot be calculated since the sector was losing money a year ago it is in the black to the tune of $8.5 billion vs. a loss of $1.5 billion in Q1 2016. Materials:
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MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 4/28/17)
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  April 25, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,763 a more extreme risk is 20,571.Near-term upside potential is 21,333
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ODDS FAVOR
1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.

Conclusion: It is happening now
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.

Conclusion: It started on Easter weekend in Berkeley.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tug of War

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:20,896
S&P 500: 2,390
Nasdaq  Comp.:6,121
Russell 2000: 1,382
Monday, May 15, 2017    9:08 a.m.
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      The Street would love to step in and buy aggressively in expectation of huge corporate tax cuts, deregulation of those pesky regulations, and the big spend on our military and infrastructure.
       The administration justifies the deficit resulting from a shortfall in revenues from tax cuts and increased expenditures by its projected increase in business, specifically $2 trillion over ten years.

        Holding the Street back from going all-in, is the possibility none of these perks will happen anytime soon, if at all.
        The Trump administration is preoccupied with speculation that Trump’s associates colluded with Russian operatives to tarnish Clinton’s reputation and embellish Trump’s prior to the election
        Longer term, there is a risk that these measures to juice the economy  will trigger one last wild speculative surge in the economy and stock market before a  recession hits.
       The current economic expansion starting in June 2009 is 96 months old compared with  the average of 58.4 months over the last 11 cycles ( 1945 – 2009).  However, it still has a bit to go to top the 1991 – 2001 expansion of 120 months.
        Trump’s plan to goose the economy with powerful stimulants doesn’t seem necessary, even with the soft spots that have been showing up recently. They would be more effective in bringing the economy out of a recession.
         With interest rates still low, the Fed has little ammo to do the job if a recession hits anytime soon.

TODAY
         The key today will be – can the market hold its early gains ? A rally failure would suggest another spike down. The DJIA needs to close above 21,000 and the S&P 500 above 2,400 to tip the scales in favor of the bulls.
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SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,837;S&P 500:2,384; Nasdaq Comp.:6,105
RESISTANCE:“today”:DJIA:20,947;S&P500:2,396;NASDAQ Comp.:6,133

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
CORPORATE EARNINGS
(updated  May 15, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 13.6%. Q2 growth  is projected at +6.8%, Q3 at +7.5%, and Q4 at +12.4%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 9.9%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.5 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0.
Note: These numbers change frequently.
 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 4/28/17)
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  April 25, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,763 a more extreme risk is 20,571.Near-term upside potential is 21,333
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 
POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET

OPINION:  I’ve been writing about the stock market, companies and related subjects for 49 years. That stretch has included  seven bear/bull markets, wars, domestic and international crises, rank speculation, two market declines of 50%, political scandals, financial institution meltdowns, dramatic technological changes, grand bull markets.
      I have never seen or imagined that the integrity of our country would be disgraced by the narcissistic  behavior of its President, Donald Trump where truth has no meaning.
      There is immeasurable risk here, as an extremist tight-wing Congress attempts to dismantle all the hard fought legislation passed over the years, intended to improve the quality of life for most of its citizens, strength of its institutions, competiveness of its corporations, and international stability.
       The downside is unthinkable. 
        What breeds hope is, that the bizarre action of the Trump administration and Congress has rallied huge numbers of people seeking to win back the country we want it to be, once was, and damn well should be, not a private party enjoyed by a few.
……………………………………………………………………..

…………………………………………………………..

HEALTHCARE:  NOW THE HOUSE REPUBLICANS OWN IT !
NOTE:
This is just the beginning and information is still sketchy. One excellent source is the Henry J. Kaiser Foundation (www.kff.org)
      The House narrowly passed the American Health Care Act (AHCA) last week by a vote of 217 to 213. 
      The House failed twice to pass a similar version. The bill was rushed through without pursuing standard practices – discussions and cost and consequence scoring, by the CBO.

      It now goes to the Senate where it will encounter changes and possibly rejection. Senator Susan Collins, Maine, says there is no timeline for Senate consideration, only that she expects the Senate to take its time and do it right.
      AHCA is not the law of the land yet. All this negativity and uncertainty must make it next to impossible for Insurance companies to project risk and coverage.  That in itself stands to press ACA to the edge.      

       Republicans will now move on to tax deform where it will tip the scales further in favor of corporations and upper income persons.

THE RISK !      

      If successful, this administration’s late-stage stimulus will set the stage for a huge shortfall in US government receipts, resulting in the need to gut  dozens of government programs that address need and quality of life.
        For the most part Republicans, greedy bankers and financial institutions gave us the “Great Recession/Bear Market” 2007-2009.  The next one will be worse, because the government will lack the fiscal stimuli to pull the country out of its depressed state. 
       Can’t happen ?   Weren’t safeguards imposed through Dodd-Frank to prevent another meltdown ?
       Yes, however the House voted Thursday to roll back many of those measures, which they claim have slowed down economic growth. This is the same pattern of corporate “permissiveness” that set the stage for the 2007 – 2009 crash. ”Read “Too Big To Fail” by Sorkin, just don’t make it bedtime reading. 

………………………………………………………………………
STARVE the BEAST  !
     Trump’s plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% from 35% would trigger a $2.4 trillion shortfall in government revenues, forcing massive cuts to government programs, as well as increased taxes in other areas to offset the loss.   

     This is an opportunity of a lifetime for Republicans to fulfill their dream to devastate social programs across the board, i.e. slash government income and there is no alternative but to gut government programs. 
      It’s called “Starve The Beast,” and will result in a vast reduction in the quality of life of most Americans, especially those who put Trump in office.
      Congress will waste little time seizing an opportunity of their lifetime – to ruthlessly, senselessly and wantonly dismember a system that works well without the intrusion of Republicans.

……………………………………………………………………
I AM KEEPING THE FOLLOWING ALIVE BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN UPSTAGED BY TRUMP’S 100-DAY STAMPEDE TO  SAVE FACE.
………………………………………………………..

PREUTERS WORLD NEWS APRIL 19, 4:20 PM
“A Russian government think tank controlled by Vladimir Putin developed a plan to swing the 2016 U.S. presidential election to Donald Trump and undermine voters’ faith in the American electoral system, three current and four former U.S. officials told Reuters.
      Russian documents appear to confirm what U.S. intelligence agencies have believed  all along that Russia influenced the outcome of our presidential election. 
      Yesterday, Reuters released documents, which were prepared by the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies[https://en.riss/], after the election that confirm this conclusion.
      It recommended that a, “propaganda campaign on social media and Russian backed global news outlets to encourage U.S. voters to elect a president who would take a softer line toward Russia than the administration of then-President Barach Obama, the seven officials said.”
     Additionally, a second institute document recommended Russia end its pro-Trump propaganda and intensify messaging about voter fraud to undermine the U.S. electoral system’s legitimacy and damage Clinton’s reputation.
      So far, investigations by U.S. institutions and Congress have not concluded collusion between Trump’s team and Russian operatives occurred.
     But U.S. investigations are still being conducted.
     I personally believe collusion DID take place, and odds are GOOD that it reaches far beyond collusion, that based on what I see and how people in the administration are acting.
……………………………………………………………….

TRUMP  – TOAST ?
      Just a hunch, but I think collusion regarding influencing the election is only part of something much bigger, like major league money transfers for options on oil investments, real estate holdings, and land deals. That’s why it is taking so much time.
      If we begin to see more and more of VP Pence, it may suggest the end for Trump is getting closer. Clearly, the inside knows something is about to break.  Trump is “toast,” IMVHO.
      There are so many people who know so much, and they are going to be watching out for number ONE, and that is not Donald Trump.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  April 14, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 13.5%. Q2 growth  is projected at +7.2%, Q3 at +7.7%, and Q4 at +12.5%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 10.0%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.5 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0. Energy is the big contributor to Q1, S&P 500 growth.  While its percentage growth rate cannot be calculated since the sector was losing money a year ago it is in the black to the tune of $8.5 billion vs. a loss of $1.5 billion in Q1 2016. Materials:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 4/28/17)
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  April 25, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,763 a more extreme risk is 20,571.Near-term upside potential is 21,333
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ODDS FAVOR
1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.

Conclusion: It is happening now
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.

Conclusion: It started on Easter weekend in Berkeley.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Spike Up…..or Fake Out ?

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:21,012
S&P 500: 2,379
Nasdaq  Comp.:6,102
Russell 2000: 1,390
Tuesday, May 9, 2017    8:30 a.m.
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NOTE: There will be no post Wednesday, Thursday, Friday
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

     The DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp simply look like they want to explode on the upside. It’s almost like slow motion, an invite for everyone to jump on board.
      The economy has a few soft spots, but is otherwise stable. The Trump promise for tax cuts, deregulation and a big spend is still on the table, and Q1 corporate earnings are better than projected weeks ago.
       France dodged a bullet, electing Emmanuel Macron over Marine Le Pen, giving the EU extended life.
TODAY
       
While the pattern suggests an upmove here, it is almost too picture perfect, increasing the odds that a spike in prices will be followed by a sharp pullback. It’s never this easy. A tough read for that reason.
       Nimble traders can play a breakout and bail with limited damage if wrong. It’s tricky and risky, otherwise.

 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,956;S&P 500:2,395; Nasdaq Comp.:6,083
RESISTANCE:“today”:DJIA:21,074;S&P500:2,407;NASDAQ Comp.:6,121

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET

OPINION:  I’ve been writing about the stock market, companies and related subjects for 49 years. That stretch has included  seven bear/bull markets, wars, domestic and international crises, rank speculation, two market declines of 50%, political scandals, financial institution meltdowns, dramatic technological changes, grand bull markets.
      I have never seen or imagined that the integrity of our country would disgraced by the narcissistic  behavior of its President, Donald Trump where truth has no meaning.
      There is immeasurable risk here, as an extremist tight-wing Congress attempts to dismantle all the hard fought legislation passed over the years, intended to improve the quality of life for most of its citizens, strength of its institutions, competiveness of its corporations, and international stability.
       The downside is unthinkable. 
        What breeds hope is, that the bizarre action of the Trump administration and Congress has rallied huge numbers of people seeking to win back the country we want it to be, once was, and damn well should be, not a private party enjoyed by a few.
……………………………………………………………………..

THE PARIS ACCORD
      In a report today by Bloomberg News, President Trump wants to abandon the Paris accord against the better judgement of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Defense Secretary James Mattis, former Commander of the U.S. Pacific Command Admiral Sam J. Locklear, heads of the Group of Seven nations, and a host of other leading corporate and institutional individuals, including Alphabet Inc.’s Google, Apple, Facebook, as well as 200 investors with more than $15 Trillion under management.  WHY ?   Is this about Obama ?
      Tillerson says “Climate change poses strategically significant risks to the U.S. national security, directly impacting our critical infrastructure and increasing the likelihood  of humanitarian disasters, state failure and conflict.”
…………………………………………………………..

HEALTHCARE:  NOW THE HOUSE REPUBLICANS OWN IT !
NOTE:
This is just the beginning and information is still sketchy. One excellent source is the Henry J. Kaiser Foundation (www.kff.org)
      The House narrowly passed the American Health Care Act (AHCA) last week by a vote of 217 to 213. 
      The House failed twice to pass a similar version. The bill was rushed through without pursuing standard practices – discussions and cost and consequence scoring, by the CBO.

      It now goes to the Senate where it will encounter changes and possibly rejection. Senator Susan Collins, Maine, says there is no timeline for Senate consideration, only that she expects the Senate to take its time and do it right.
      AHCA is not the law of the land yet. All this negativity and uncertainty must make it next to impossible for Insurance companies to project risk and coverage.  That in itself stands to press ACA to the edge.      

       Republicans will now move on to tax deform where it will tip the scales further in favor of corporations and upper income persons.

THE RISK !      

      If successful, this administration’s late-stage stimulus will set the stage for a huge shortfall in US government receipts, resulting in the need to gut  dozens of government programs that address need and quality of life.
        For the most part Republicans, greedy bankers and financial institutions gave us the “Great Recession/Bear Market” 2007-2009.  The next one will be worse, because the government will lack the fiscal stimuli to pull the country out of its depressed state. 
       Can’t happen ?   Weren’t safeguards imposed through Dodd-Frank to prevent another meltdown ?
       Yes, however the House voted Thursday to roll back many of those measures, which they claim have slowed down economic growth. This is the same pattern of corporate “permissiveness” that set the stage for the 2007 – 2009 crash. ”Read “Too Big To Fail” by Sorkin, just don’t make it bedtime reading. 

……………………………………………………………………………
WHY NOTHING SAID ON COLLUSION BETWEEN THE TRUMP TEAM AND RUSSIAN OPERATIVES ?     

     FBI’s Comey was before the Senate last week to explain his reasoning behind his decision to re-open the investigation of presidential candidate Clinton’s e-mails 11 days before election day, November 8, claiming he did not believe his decision cost Clinton the election even though Clinton’s poll numbers  dropped after the announcement.
       No objective person with the ability to think logically without bias could conclude  that.  I doubt it was his intent, but it was what it was – an error in judgement.   The Trump victory was a mistake, a big one, and when you make big mistakes, you will pay a big price.
       IS THE FIX IN ?  WOULD THE TRUTH BE SO DEVASTATING TO US INTERESTS AND ITS IMAGE THAT WE WON’T KNOW FOR YEARS WHEN SOMEONE WRITES A “TELL-ALL?”
       OR WILL THE FBI WAIT UNTIL AFTER THE MID-TERMS, OR THE 2020 ELECTION, TO RELEASE ITS FINDINGS ?  CLEARLY IT WON’T WANT TO SKEW THE RESULTS !!!
………………………………………………………………………….

Trump Moving to Center ?
      
Recently, Aol’s Eric Lutz  wrote, Donald Trump reportedly planning a shift to the center as he tries to reset his presidency.”  Apparently daughter Ivanka and husband Jared Kushner have been pressuring Trump to temper his politics, and perhaps making some progress.
       While it would be a good idea, since IMHO the Democrats currently appear in line to regain control of Congress in 2018.
       But Donald Trump is a narcissist, and that can include some or all of the following: vain, egotistic, selfish, ,stubborn, manipulative,  boastful, incapable of criticism resistance, superiority complex, defensive, shameless, arrogant, entitled, abusive, vindictive, untruthful, and a reality denier.  Fortunately, only 1% of people have this disorder, unfortunately, one of them is our president.
…………………………………………………………………..
STARVE the BEAST  !
    
Trump’s plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% from 35% would trigger a $2.4 trillion shortfall in government revenues, forcing massive cuts to government programs, as well as increased taxes in other areas to offset the loss.   

     This is an opportunity of a lifetime for Republicans to fulfill their dream to devastate social programs across the board, i.e. slash government income and there is no alternative but to gut government programs. 
      It’s called “Starve The Beast,” and will result in a vast reduction in the quality of life of most Americans, especially those who put Trump in office.
      Congress will waste little time seizing an opportunity of their lifetime – to ruthlessly, senselessly and wantonly dismember a system that works well without the intrusion of Republicans.

……………………………………………………………………
I AM KEEPING THE FOLLOWING ALIVE BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN UPSTAGED BY TRUMP’S 100-DAY STAMPEDE TO  SAVE FACE.
………………………………………………………..

PREUTERS WORLD NEWS APRIL 19, 4:20 PM
“A Russian government think tank controlled by Vladimir Putin developed a plan to swing the 2016 U.S. presidential election to Donald Trump and undermine voters’ faith in the American electoral system, three current and four former U.S. officials told Reuters.
      Russian documents appear to confirm what U.S. intelligence agencies have believed  all along that Russia influenced the outcome of our presidential election. 
      Yesterday, Reuters released documents, which were prepared by the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies[https://en.riss/], after the election that confirm this conclusion.
      It recommended that a, “propaganda campaign on social media and Russian backed global news outlets to encourage U.S. voters to elect a president who would take a softer line toward Russia than the administration of then-President Barach Obama, the seven officials said.”
     Additionally, a second institute document recommended Russia end its pro-Trump propaganda and intensify messaging about voter fraud to undermine the U.S. electoral system’s legitimacy and damage Clinton’s reputation.
      So far, investigations by U.S. institutions and Congress have not concluded collusion between Trump’s team and Russian operatives occurred.
     But U.S. investigations are still being conducted.
     I personally believe collusion DID take place, and odds are GOOD that it reaches far beyond collusion, that based on what I see and how people in the administration are acting.
……………………………………………………………….

TRUMP  – TOAST ?
      Just a hunch, but I think collusion regarding influencing the election is only part of something much bigger, like major league money transfers for options on oil investments, real estate holdings, and land deals. That’s why it is taking so much time.
      If we begin to see more and more of VP Pence, it may suggest the end for Trump is getting closer. Clearly, the inside knows something is about to break.  Trump is “toast,” IMVHO.
      There are so many people who know so much, and they are going to be watching out for number ONE, and that is not Donald Trump.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  April 14, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 13.5%. Q2 growth  is projected at +7.2%, Q3 at +7.7%, and Q4 at +12.5%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 10.0%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.5 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0. Energy is the big contributor to Q1, S&P 500 growth.  While its percentage growth rate cannot be calculated since the sector was losing money a year ago it is in the black to the tune of $8.5 billion vs. a loss of $1.5 billion in Q1 2016. Materials:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 4/28/17)
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  April 25, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,763 a more extreme risk is 20,571.Near-term upside potential is 21,333
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ODDS FAVOR
1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.

Conclusion: It is happening now
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.

Conclusion: It started on Easter weekend in Berkeley.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….

*Stock Trader’s Almanac
……………………………………………………………………..

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

     I’ve been writing about the stock market, companies and related subjects for 49 years. That stretch has included  seven bear/bull markets, wars, domestic and international crises, rank speculation, two market declines of 50%, political scandals, financial institution meltdowns, dramatic technological changes, grand bull markets.
      I have never seen or imagined that the integrity of our country would disgraced by the narcissistic  behavior of its President, Donald Trump where truth has no value.
      There is immeasurable risk here, as an extremist tight-wing Congress attempts to dismantle all the hard fought legislation over the years intended to improve the quality of life for most of its citizens, strength of its institutions, competiveness of its corporations, and international stability.
       The downside is unthinkable. 
        What breeds hope is, that the bizarre action of the Trump administration and Congress has rallied huge numbers of people seeking to win back a country we want to be, should be. 

Breakout ……or Fake Out ?

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:21,006
S&P 500: 2,399
Nasdaq  Comp.:6,100
Russell 2000: 1,396
Monday, May 8, 2017    9:17 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

 EARNINGS  (Good)
      Q1 earnings are poised to post a gain of 13.5%, that a full one percentage point higher than projected a week ago, according to Factset, which provides a comprehensive breakout by industry. Week-to-week projections can vary, especially during reporting periods.

     Soooo, we have corporate earnings growing again after a stall, and the promise of higher growth in the future, depending on the magnitude of tax cuts and how much spending Congress votes for the  military and the nation’s  infrastructure.

 ECONOMY    (Mixed)     
      The economy is still a mixed bag.  While the jobs market  is hot, it apparently is not hot enough to  press hourly wages higher.  

      To-date, 15.2 million jobs have been added in the current economic expansion that started in June 2009.  The unemployment rate hit 4.4% in April, a new low for the current cycle, and down from a November 2009 high of 10.0%.
     Consumer confidence is at record high, but people are not buying. Motor vehicle sales edged up slightly in April, but have been in a slump  so far this year.

TODAY

     We have had three straight days where early sell offs were followed by a close near the highs of the day. That’s a positive.
      In the past, May has tended  turn the market sideways-to-down until fall. You may read about and old  Wall Street bromide, “Sell in May, and go away.” On more occasions than not, that would be good advice.  The Street has tended to buy more aggressively between November 1 and May 1, which is referred to as the “best six months to own stocks,” a rep it earned by outperforming  the six months between May1 and November 1.
      Both six month periods have had one or more major reversals within their six month span to warrant caution about betting too heavily on their outcome.
      Emmanuel Macron handily beat Marine Le Pen for the presidency of France Sunday 65.5% to 34.5%.  That’s good for the EU and stability abroad.
      While the economy is showing some soft areas (spending), it is perceived as solid. The stock market looks like it is ready for a big move up.
       Investors must feel the urge to go all-in, make the plunge. Easy does it
 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,951;S&P 500:2,394; Nasdaq Comp.:6,087
RESISTANCE:“today”:DJIA:21,103;S&P500:2,411;NASDAQ Comp.:6,124

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET

NOW THE HOUSE REPUBLICANS OWN IT !

NOTE: This is just the beginning and information is still sketchy. One excellent source is the Henry J. Kaiser Foundation (www.kff.org)
      The House narrowly passed the American Health Care Act (AHCA) last week by a vote of 217 to 213. 
      The House failed twice to pass a similar version. The bill was rushed through without pursuing standard practices – discussions and cost and consequence scoring, by the CBO.

      It now goes to the Senate where it will encounter changes and possibly rejection. Senator Susan Collins, Maine, says there is no timeline for Senate consideration, only that she expects the Senate to take its time and do it right.
      AHCA is not the law of the land yet. All this negativity and uncertainty must make it next to impossible for Insurance companies to project risk and coverage.  That in itself stands to press ACA to the edge.      

       Republicans will now move on to tax deform where it will tip the scales further in favor of corporations and upper income persons.

THE RISK !     

      If successful, this administration’s late-stage stimulus will set the stage for a huge shortfall in US government receipts, resulting in the need to gut  dozens of government programs that address need and quality of life.
        For the most part Republicans, greedy bankers and financial institutions gave us the “Great Recession/Bear Market” 2007-2009.  The next one will be worse, because the government will lack the fiscal stimuli to pull the country out of its depressed state. 
       Can’t happen ?   Weren’t safeguards imposed through Dodd-Frank to prevent another meltdown ?
       Yes, however the House voted Thursday to roll back many of those measures, which they claim have slowed down economic growth. This is the same pattern of corporate “permissiveness” that set the stage for the 2007 – 2009 crash. ”Read “Too Big To Fail” by Sorkin, just don’t make it bedtime reading. 

……………………………………………………………………………
WHY NOTHING SAID ON COLLUSION BETWEEN THE TRUMP TEAM AND RUSSIAN OPERATIVES ?     

     FBI’s Comey was before the Senate last week to explain his reasoning behind his decision to re-open the investigation of presidential candidate Clinton’s e-mails 11 days before election day, November 8, claiming he did not believe his decision cost Clinton the election even though Clinton’s poll numbers  dropped after the announcement.
       No objective person with the ability to think logically without bias could conclude  that.  I doubt it was his intent, but it was what it was – an error in judgement.   The Trump victory was a mistake, a big one, and when you make big mistakes, you will pay a big price.
       IS THE FIX IN ?  WOULD THE TRUTH BE SO DEVASTATING TO US INTERESTS AND ITS IMAGE THAT WE WON’T KNOW FOR YEARS WHEN SOMEONE WRITES A “TELL-ALL?”
       OR WILL THE FBI WAIT UNTIL AFTER THE MID-TERMS, OR THE 2020 ELECTION, TO RELEASE ITS FINDINGS ?  CLEARLY IT WON’T WANT TO SKEW THE RESULTS !!!
………………………………………………………………………….

Trump’s fascination with dictators
      
News that President Trump may under the right circumstances, meet with  North Korean President Kim Jong-un and Philippeans President Rodrigo Duterte, both ruthless dictators.
       Under the right circumstances that might be a good idea, though it undercuts  US National Security Agency policies.
        What is it with Trump’s fascination with dictators like this who have no regard for human rights, dignity, and life, men who answer to no one, especially a press ? Additionally, Trump has praised Vladimir Putin.
       Given his ultimate wish, would Trump opt for such untethered power ? 
Trump Moving to Center ?
      
Recently, Aol’s Eric Lutz  wrote, Donald Trump reportedly planning a shift to the center as he tries to reset his presidency.”  Apparently daughter Ivanka and husband Jared Kushner have been pressuring Trump to temper his politics, and perhaps making some progress.
       While it would be a good idea, since IMHO the Democrats currently appear in line to regain control of Congress in 2018.
       But Donald Trump is a narcissist, and that can include some or all of the following: vain, egotistic, selfish, ,stubborn, manipulative,  boastful, incapable of criticism resistance, superiority complex, defensive, shameless, arrogant, entitled, abusive, vindictive, untruthful, and a reality denier.  Fortunately, only 1% of people have this disorder, unfortunately, one of them is our president.
………………………………………………………………………………..

        What disturbs me is Trump dismisses his actions on ACA, immigration, his wall, sanctuary cities, etc.  as fulfilling his promises to his “base.”   Beg pardon Mr. Trump, but you are NOW the President of the United States, NOT president of a base which actually fell 2,865,075 votes short  of your opponent’s.
         ……………………………………………………………………………..
      
Education Secretary, billionaire, Betsy DeVos, wasted little time getting in lockstep with Trump’s rush to gut President Obama’s many initiatives to help young people. DeVos undercut  Obama’s initiatives to strengthen the rights of some 40 million student borrowers thus facilitating student debt repayment. Obama was responding to a rash of student defaults in face of false information and extra fees by lenders.
      How can scrapping rules designed to protect students burdened with debt, and vulnerable to predatory lending be in anyone’s interest  except the big money ?  What is it with this brand of Republican ?  Mean spirited ?  Clueless ?  I don’t get it.
      Small wonder resentment for the ultra rich is increasing.
…………………………………………………………………..
STARVE the BEAST  !
    
Trump’s plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% from 35% would trigger a $2.4 trillion shortfall in government revenues, forcing massive cuts to government programs, as well as increased taxes in other areas to offset the loss.   

     This is an opportunity of a lifetime for Republicans to fulfill their dream to devastate social programs across the board, i.e. slash government income and there is no alternative but to gut government programs. 
      It’s called “Starve The Beast,” and will result in a vast reduction in the quality of life of most Americans, especially those who put Trump in office.
      Congress will waste little time seizing an opportunity of their lifetime – to ruthlessly, senselessly and wantonly dismember a system that works well without the intrusion of Republicans.

……………………………………………………………………
I AM KEEPING THE FOLLOWING ALIVE BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN UPSTAGED BY TRUMP’S 100-DAY STAMPEDE TO  SAVE FACE.
………………………………………………………..

PREUTERS WORLD NEWS APRIL 19, 4:20 PM
“A Russian government think tank controlled by Vladimir Putin developed a plan to swing the 2016 U.S. presidential election to Donald Trump and undermine voters’ faith in the American electoral system, three current and four former U.S. officials told Reuters.
      Russian documents appear to confirm what U.S. intelligence agencies have believed  all along that Russia influenced the outcome of our presidential election. 
      Yesterday, Reuters released documents, which were prepared by the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies[https://en.riss/], after the election that confirm this conclusion.
      It recommended that a, “propaganda campaign on social media and Russian backed global news outlets to encourage U.S. voters to elect a president who would take a softer line toward Russia than the administration of then-President Barach Obama, the seven officials said.”
     Additionally, a second institute document recommended Russia end its pro-Trump propaganda and intensify messaging about voter fraud to undermine the U.S. electoral system’s legitimacy and damage Clinton’s reputation.
      So far, investigations by U.S. institutions and Congress have not concluded collusion between Trump’s team and Russian operatives occurred.
     But U.S. investigations are still being conducted.
     I personally believe collusion DID take place, and odds are GOOD that it reaches far beyond collusion, that based on what I see and how people in the administration are acting.
……………………………………………………………….

TRUMP  – TOAST ?
      Just a hunch, but I think collusion regarding influencing the election is only part of something much bigger, like major league money transfers for options on oil investments, real estate holdings, and land deals. That’s why it is taking so much time.
      If we begin to see more and more of VP Pence, it may suggest the end for Trump is getting closer. Clearly, the inside knows something is about to break.  Trump is “toast,” IMVHO.
      There are so many people who know so much, and they are going to be watching out for number ONE, and that is not Donald Trump.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  April 14, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 13.5%. Q2 growth  is projected at +7.2%, Q3 at +7.7%, and Q4 at +12.5%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 10.0%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.5 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0. Energy is the big contributor to Q1, S&P 500 growth.  While its percentage growth rate cannot be calculated since the sector was losing money a year ago it is in the black to the tune of $8.5 billion vs. a loss of $1.5 billion in Q1 2016. Materials:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 4/28/17)
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  April 25, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,763 a more extreme risk is 20,571.Near-term upside potential is 21,333
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ODDS FAVOR
1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.

Conclusion: It is happening now
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.

Conclusion: It started on Easter weekend in Berkeley.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….

*Stock Trader’s Almanac
……………………………………………………………………..

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

May – End of Best 6 Months to Own Stocks

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the opeDJIA:20,951
S&P 500: 2,384
Nasdaq  Comp.:6,075
Russell 2000: 1,388
Friday, May 5, 2017    9:07 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

      Again, major market averages closed at the highs for the day after a sharp morning sell off.  This indicates buyers are positioned at lower prices, in this case, slightly lower prices.
      While the U.S. House passed  the American Healthcare Act (AHCA) Thursday, it is not yet the law of the land. The U.S. Senate must vote and early indications are  revisions will be needed if it is going to pass there.
       Because the House was finally able to repeal/replace ACA,  is no guarantee action on tax reform and other stimuli will be forthcoming soon.
       The Street is pretty sure these goodies will served up, just not sure when.  The market acts like the Street wants to pounce on stocks, but just unsure about going all-in.       
 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20: 20,891;S&P 500:2,385; Nasdaq Comp.:6,057
RESISTANCE:“today”:DJIA:21,017;S&P500:2,395;NASDAQ Comp.:6,093

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
NOW THE HOUSE REPUBLICANS OWN IT !
      The House narrowly passed the American Health Care Act (AHCA) yesterday by a vote of 217 to 213.  It now goes to the Senate where it will encounter changes and possibly rejection.
      The House failed twice to pass a similar version. The bill was rushed through without pursuing standard practices – discussions and cost and consequence scoring, by the CBO.
       While the AHCA may not be well received in the Senate, President Trump and Republican colleagues can take a victory lap, snicker, tweet, and gleefully dance on the graves of those who the bill will screw.
       For the most part, this brand of Republican is mean-spirited, selfish, uncaring, and lacking in an understanding of how important it is for as many people as possible in our country to have security, stability and a quality  life.   I personally, don’t think a number of them are good Americans or real Christians. Really, what’s so Christian about favoring the rich over the poor ?
       Hey guys and girls, we’re just passing through, the window is small, do some good.
       Republicans will now move on to tax deform where it will tip the scales further in favor of corporations and upper income persons.

THE RISK !     

      If successful, this administration’s late-stage stimulus will set the stage for a huge shortfall in US government receipts, resulting in the need to gut en mass, dozens of government programs that address need and quality of life.
        For the most part Republicans, greedy bankers and financial institutions gave us the “Great Recession/Bear Market” 2007-2009.  The next one will be worse, because the government will lack the fiscal stimuli to pull the country out of its depressed state.  
       Can’t happen ?   Weren’t safeguards imposed through Dodd-Frank to prevent another meltdown ?
       Yes, however the House voted Thursday to roll back many of those measures, which they claim have slowed down economic growth. This is the same pattern of corporate “permissiveness” that set the stage for the 2007 – 2009 crash. ”Read “Too Big To Fail” by Sorkin, just don’t make it bedtime reading. 

……………………………………………………………………………
      FBI’s Comey was before the Senate yesterday to explain his reasoning behind his decision to re-open the investigation of presidential candidate Clinton’s e-mails 11 days before election day, November 8, claiming he did not believe his decision cost Clinton the election even though Clinton’s poll numbers  dropped after the announcement.
       No objective person with the ability to think logically without bias could conclude  that.  I doubt it was his intent, but it was what it was – a error in judgement.   The Trump victory was a mistake, a big one, and when you make big mistakes, you will pay a big price.
………………………………………………………………………….

Trump’s fascination with dictators
      
News that President Trump may under the right circumstances, meet with  North Korean President Kim Jong-un and Philippeans President Rodrigo Duterte, both ruthless dictators.
       Under the right circumstances that might be a good idea, though it undercuts  US National Security Agency policies.
        What is it with Trump’s fascination with dictators like this who have no regard for human rights, dignity, and life, men who answer to no one, especially a press ? Additionally, Trump has praised Vladimir Putin.
       Given his ultimate wish, would Trump opt for such untethered power ? 
Trump Moving to Center ?
      
Recently, Aol’s Eric Lutz  wrote, Donald Trump reportedly planning a shift to the center as he tries to reset his presidency.”  Apparently daughter Ivanka and husband Jared Kushner have been pressuring Trump to temper his politics, and perhaps making some progress.
       While it would be a good idea, since IMHO the Democrats currently appear in line to regain control of Congress in 2018.
       But Donald Trump is a narcissist, and that can include some or all of the following: vain, egotistic, selfish, ,stubborn, manipulative,  boastful, incapable of criticism resistance, superiority complex, defensive, shameless, arrogant, entitled, abusive, vindictive, untruthful, and a reality denier.  Fortunately, only 1% of people have this disorder, unfortunately, one of them is our president.
       GOOD NEWS ! A bipartisan deal was reached over the weekend  by Republicans and Democrats to keep the government open through September 30, the nation’s fiscal year end. To Trump’s surprise, it denied him many items on his wish list. Surprises included funding for the Nat’l Inst. of Health, EPA, the Advanced Research Projects Agency, and national parks.
       A hearing is scheduled for Tuesday by the House Rules Committee to vote on advancing the bill and setting procedures for a floor vote.

       BAD NEWS !  Watch your back. This sudden moonwalk  by Congress is not to be trusted.  A good night’s sleep must hard to get if you’re a Republican. Campaigning for the mid-terms is only a year away, and the unpredictable, irrational behavior of  President Trump stands to put maintaining control at risk. If suddenly, these do-nothings become doers, beware
       I have always believed there is BIG, very BIG, money out there which has too much to lose to let  an out-of-control narcissist destroy what they savor – total control of their lives and assets. The Koch brothers would be one example, though they have become more visible than others. Robert L. Mercer and daughter qualify wealth-wise, but IMHO are not politically street smart enough. My guess, they will move on to other things within two to four years.  Early on, they backed Bannon and Brietbart News – Not a good idea.
………………………………………………………………………………..
        What disturbs me is Trump dismisses his actions on ACA, immigration, his wall, sanctuary cities, etc.  as fulfilling his promises to his “base.”   Beg pardon Mr. Trump, but you are NOW the President of the United States, NOT president of a base which actually fell 2,865,075 votes short  of your opponent’s.
         ……………………………………………………………………………..
      
Education Secretary, billionaire, Betsy DeVos, wasted little time getting in lockstep with Trump’s rush to gut President Obama’s many initiatives to help young people. DeVos undercut  Obama’s initiatives to strengthen the rights of some 40 million student borrowers thus facilitating student debt repayment. Obama was responding to a rash of student defaults in face of false information and extra fees by lenders.
      How can scrapping rules designed to protect students burdened with debt, and vulnerable to predatory lending be in anyone’s interest  except the big money ?  What is it with this brand of Republican ?  Mean spirited ?  Clueless ?  I don’t get it.
      Small wonder resentment for the ultra rich is increasing.
…………………………………………………………………..
FRANCE – Don’t Count Le Pen Out Yet
     The United States isn’t the only place, “It ain’t over until it’s over.”
  Add France to Monsieur Berra’s reach.  On Monday I said euphoria over Macron’s expected victory May 7 stands to yield to uneasiness as the gap of  support he enjoys now will narrow.  Reportedly, that is already happening on the campaign trail where Le Pen scored some points and appears to be gaining momentum. Global markets soared Monday when Le Pen failed to win the presidency on the first time around.  Victory by Le Pen raises the possibility France would pull out of the EU.
STARVE the BEAST  !
    
Trump’s plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% from 35% would trigger a $2.4 trillion shortfall in government revenues, forcing massive cuts to government programs, as well as increased taxes in other areas to offset the loss.   

     This is an opportunity of a lifetime for Republicans to fulfill their dream to devastate social programs across the board, i.e. slash government income and there is no alternative but to gut government programs. 
      It’s called “Starve The Beast,” and will result in a vast reduction in the quality of life of most Americans, especially those who put Trump in office.
      Congress will waste little time seizing an opportunity of their lifetime – to ruthlessly, senselessly and wantonly dismember a system that works well without the intrusion of Republicans.
……………………………………………………………………………….
      The rape and pillage of our federal government continues,
as Republican Thomas Massie  introduced a bill in February aimed at terminating the Department of Education effective December 31, 2018. This coincided with the Senate confirmation of Conservative Betsy DeVos, a long time advocate of school vouchers and critic of public education.

      As a budget is being developed, we can expect a major revamping of the nation’s government structure and huge cuts.
      Mick Mulvaney, director of the Office of Management and Budget plans to streamline the U.S. government structure by drastic reallocation of resources away from social “Great Society” programs to the Dept. of Defense and Homeland Security.
      Action is already underway to gut the EPA and Dept. of Education, but the administration’s efforts are bound to encounter Congressional opposition, since budget cuts and the elimination of agencies will undoubtedly have widespread impact, none the least of which may be the loss of Republican House and Senate seats in 2018.     
……………………………………………………………………
I AM KEEPING THE FOLLOWING ALIVE BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN UPSTAGED BY TRUMP’S 100-DAY STAMPEDE TO  SAVE FACE.
…………….

PREUTERS WORLD NEWS APRIL 19, 4:20 PM
“A Russian government think tank controlled by Vladimir Putin developed a plan to swing the 2016 U.S. presidential election to Donald Trump and undermine voters’ faith in the American electoral system, three current and four former U.S. officials told Reuters.
      Russian documents appear to confirm what U.S. intelligence agencies have believed  all along that Russia influenced the outcome of our presidential election. 
      Yesterday, Reuters released documents, which were prepared by the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies[https://en.riss/], after the election that confirm this conclusion.
      It recommended that a, “propaganda campaign on social media and Russian backed global news outlets to encourage U.S. voters to elect a president who would take a softer line toward Russia than the administration of then-President Barach Obama, the seven officials said.”
     Additionally, a second institute document recommended Russia end its pro-Trump propaganda and intensify messaging about voter fraud to undermine the U.S. electoral system’s legitimacy and damage Clinton’s reputation.
      So far, investigations by U.S. institutions and Congress have not concluded collusion between Trump’s team and Russian operatives occurred.
     But U.S. investigations are still being conducted.
     I personally believe collusion DID take place, and odds are GOOD that it reaches far beyond collusion, that based on what I see and how people in the administration are acting.
     PRESIDENTIAL RECALL ?    
     Reportedly, there is no mechanism in the U.S. Constitution that enables voters to recall at the federal level, though 19 states permit recalls at the state and local levels. Impeachment is the only recourse in the event high crimes and misdemeanors are committed.
      The truth may never be confirmed, it being so debilitating to orderly and effective governance, that it would  result in irreparable divisiveness.
      THIS COULD BE THE ULTIMATE TEST OF THE GOVERNMENT SO MANY DEDICATED PEOPLE STRIVED AND DIED FOR.
……………………………………………………………….

TRUMP  – TOAST ?
      Just a hunch, but I think collusion regarding influencing the election is only part of something much bigger, like major league money transfers for options on oil investments, real estate holdings, and land deals. That’s why it is taking so much time.
      If we begin to see more and more of VP Pence, it may suggest the end for Trump is getting closer. Clearly, the inside knows something is about to break.  Trump is “toast,” IMVHO.
      There are so many people who know so much, and they are going to be watching out for number ONE, and that is not Donald Trump.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  April 14, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 12.5%. Q2 growth  is projected at +8.1%, Q3 at +8.2%, and Q4 at +12.8%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 10.1%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.6 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0. Energy is the big contributor to Q1, S&P 500 growth.  While its percentage growth rate cannot be calculated since the sector was losing money a year ago it is in the black to the tune of $8.5 billion vs. a loss of $1.5 billion in Q1 2016. Materials:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 4/28/17)
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  April 25, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,763 a more extreme risk is 20,571.Near-term upside potential is 21,333
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ODDS FAVOR
1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.

Conclusion: It is happening now
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.

Conclusion: It started on Easter weekend in Berkeley.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….

*Stock Trader’s Almanac
……………………………………………………………………..

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

House to Pass Trumpcare – Shame !

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:20,957
S&P 500: 2,387
Nasdaq  Comp.:6,072
Russell 2000: 1,391
Thursday, May 4, 2017    8:46 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

       A one-day reversal yesterday ended a six-day correction in the DJIA and S&P 500, a pattern often referred to as a “flag,” because that is what it looks like – flag pole with a sharp up move in mid-April, flag with a sideways-to-down correction.
      The Street is still responding to Q1 earnings and expectations for a massive stimulus.  Stocks may get a bump today from passage of Trumpcare, primarily because it suggests that if the Trump administration is capable of  passing the ACA repeal/replacement bill, it can also get tax cuts, deregulation and a big spend done, as well.
       Again, let me remind you that the six month period between May 1 and November 1 tends to underperform compared to the six months between November 1 and May 1, the latter being institutions playtime.
 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,932:S&P 500:2,386; Nasdaq Comp.:6,067
RESISTANCE:“today”:DJIA:21,016;S&P500:2,393;NASDAQ Comp.:6,087

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
      The ACA repeal/replace bill is finally expected to pass today, a pyrrhic victory for Republicans who were driven to repeal ACA after seven years of failed attempts, two failed votes this year, and opting to by-pass standard procedures of conducting hearings, and seeking cost and consequence feedback by the CBO. A bill will struggle in the Senate.
……………………………………………………………………………
      FBI’s Comey was before the Senate yesterday to explain his reasoning behind his decision to re-open the investigation of presidential candidate Clinton’s e-mails 11 days before election day, November 8, claiming he did not believe his decision cost Clinton the election even though Clinton’s poll numbers  dropped after the announcement.
       No objective person with the ability to think logically without bias could conclude  that.  I doubt it was his intent, but it was what it was – a error in judgement.   The Trump victory was a mistake, a big one, and when you make big mistakes, you will pay a big price.
………………………………………………………………………….

Trump’s fascination with dictators
      
News that President Trump may under the right circumstances, meet with  North Korean President Kim Jong-un and Philippeans President Rodrigo Duterte, both ruthless dictators.
       Under the right circumstances that might be a good idea, though it undercuts  US National Security Agency policies.
        What is it with Trump’s fascination with dictators like this who have no regard for human rights, dignity, and life, men who answer to no one, especially a press ? Additionally, Trump has praised Vladimir Putin.
       Given his ultimate wish, would Trump opt for such untethered power ? 
Trump Moving to Center ?
      
Recently, Aol’s Eric Lutz  wrote, Donald Trump reportedly planning a shift to the center as he tries to reset his presidency.”  Apparently daughter Ivanka and husband Jared Kushner have been pressuring Trump to temper his politics, and perhaps making some progress.
       While it would be a good idea, since IMHO the Democrats currently appear in line to regain control of Congress in 2018.
       But Donald Trump is a narcissist, and that can include some or all of the following: vain, egotistic, selfish, ,stubborn, manipulative,  boastful, incapable of criticism resistance, superiority complex, defensive, shameless, arrogant, entitled, abusive, vindictive, untruthful, and a reality denier.  Fortunately, only 1% of people have this disorder, unfortunately, one of them is our president.
       GOOD NEWS ! A bipartisan deal was reached over the weekend  by Republicans and Democrats to keep the government open through September 30, the nation’s fiscal year end. To Trump’s surprise, it denied him many items on his wish list. Surprises included funding for the Nat’l Inst. of Health, EPA, the Advanced Research Projects Agency, and national parks.
       A hearing is scheduled for Tuesday by the House Rules Committee to vote on advancing the bill and setting procedures for a floor vote.

       BAD NEWS !  Watch your back. This sudden moonwalk  by Congress is not to be trusted.  A good night’s sleep must hard to get if you’re a Republican. Campaigning for the mid-terms is only a year away, and the unpredictable, irrational behavior of  President Trump stands to put maintaining control at risk. If suddenly, these do-nothings become doers, beware
       I have always believed there is BIG, very BIG, money out there which has too much to lose to let  an out-of-control narcissist destroy what they savor – total control of their lives and assets. The Koch brothers would be one example, though they have become more visible than others. Robert L. Mercer and daughter qualify wealth-wise, but IMHO are not politically street smart enough. My guess, they will move on to other things within two to four years.  Early on, they backed Bannon and Brietbart News – Not a good idea.
………………………………………………………………………………..
        What disturbs me is Trump dismisses his actions on ACA, immigration, his wall, sanctuary cities, etc.  as fulfilling his promises to his “base.”   Beg pardon Mr. Trump, but you are NOW the President of the United States, NOT president of a base which actually fell 2,865,075 votes short  of your opponent’s.
         ……………………………………………………………………………..
      
Education Secretary, billionaire, Betsy DeVos, wasted little time getting in lockstep with Trump’s rush to gut President Obama’s many initiatives to help young people. DeVos undercut  Obama’s initiatives to strengthen the rights of some 40 million student borrowers thus facilitating student debt repayment. Obama was responding to a rash of student defaults in face of false information and extra fees by lenders.
      How can scrapping rules designed to protect students burdened with debt, and vulnerable to predatory lending be in anyone’s interest  except the big money ?  What is it with this brand of Republican ?  Mean spirited ?  Clueless ?  I don’t get it.
      Small wonder resentment for the ultra rich is increasing.
…………………………………………………………………..
FRANCE – Don’t Count Le Pen Out Yet
     The United States isn’t the only place, “It ain’t over until it’s over.”
  Add France to Monsieur Berra’s reach.  On Monday I said euphoria over Macron’s expected victory May 7 stands to yield to uneasiness as the gap of  support he enjoys now will narrow.  Reportedly, that is already happening on the campaign trail where Le Pen scored some points and appears to be gaining momentum. Global markets soared Monday when Le Pen failed to win the presidency on the first time around.  Victory by Le Pen raises the possibility France would pull out of the EU.
STARVE the BEAST  !
    
Trump’s plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% from 35% would trigger a $2.4 trillion shortfall in government revenues, forcing massive cuts to government programs, as well as increased taxes in other areas to offset the loss.   

     This is an opportunity of a lifetime for Republicans to fulfill their dream to devastate social programs across the board, i.e. slash government income and there is no alternative but to gut government programs. 
      It’s called “Starve The Beast,” and will result in a vast reduction in the quality of life of most Americans, especially those who put Trump in office.
      Congress will waste little time seizing an opportunity of their lifetime – to ruthlessly, senselessly and wantonly dismember a system that works well without the intrusion of Republicans.
……………………………………………………………………………….
      The rape and pillage of our federal government continues,
as Republican Thomas Massie  introduced a bill in February aimed at terminating the Department of Education effective December 31, 2018. This coincided with the Senate confirmation of Conservative Betsy DeVos, a long time advocate of school vouchers and critic of public education.

      As a budget is being developed, we can expect a major revamping of the nation’s government structure and huge cuts.
      Mick Mulvaney, director of the Office of Management and Budget plans to streamline the U.S. government structure by drastic reallocation of resources away from social “Great Society” programs to the Dept. of Defense and Homeland Security.
      Action is already underway to gut the EPA and Dept. of Education, but the administration’s efforts are bound to encounter Congressional opposition, since budget cuts and the elimination of agencies will undoubtedly have widespread impact, none the least of which may be the loss of Republican House and Senate seats in 2018.     
……………………………………………………………………
I AM KEEPING THE FOLLOWING ALIVE BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN UPSTAGED BY TRUMP’S 100-DAY STAMPEDE TO  SAVE FACE.
…………….

PREUTERS WORLD NEWS APRIL 19, 4:20 PM
“A Russian government think tank controlled by Vladimir Putin developed a plan to swing the 2016 U.S. presidential election to Donald Trump and undermine voters’ faith in the American electoral system, three current and four former U.S. officials told Reuters.
      Russian documents appear to confirm what U.S. intelligence agencies have believed  all along that Russia influenced the outcome of our presidential election. 
      Yesterday, Reuters released documents, which were prepared by the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies[https://en.riss/], after the election that confirm this conclusion.
      It recommended that a, “propaganda campaign on social media and Russian backed global news outlets to encourage U.S. voters to elect a president who would take a softer line toward Russia than the administration of then-President Barach Obama, the seven officials said.”
     Additionally, a second institute document recommended Russia end its pro-Trump propaganda and intensify messaging about voter fraud to undermine the U.S. electoral system’s legitimacy and damage Clinton’s reputation.
      So far, investigations by U.S. institutions and Congress have not concluded collusion between Trump’s team and Russian operatives occurred.
     But U.S. investigations are still being conducted.
     I personally believe collusion DID take place, and odds are GOOD that it reaches far beyond collusion, that based on what I see and how people in the administration are acting.
     PRESIDENTIAL RECALL ?    
     Reportedly, there is no mechanism in the U.S. Constitution that enables voters to recall at the federal level, though 19 states permit recalls at the state and local levels. Impeachment is the only recourse in the event high crimes and misdemeanors are committed.
      The truth may never be confirmed, it being so debilitating to orderly and effective governance, that it would  result in irreparable divisiveness.
      THIS COULD BE THE ULTIMATE TEST OF THE GOVERNMENT SO MANY DEDICATED PEOPLE STRIVED AND DIED FOR.
……………………………………………………………….

TRUMP  – TOAST ?
      Just a hunch, but I think collusion regarding influencing the election is only part of something much bigger, like major league money transfers for options on oil investments, real estate holdings, and land deals. That’s why it is taking so much time.
      If we begin to see more and more of VP Pence, it may suggest the end for Trump is getting closer. Clearly, the inside knows something is about to break.  Trump is “toast,” IMVHO.
      There are so many people who know so much, and they are going to be watching out for number ONE, and that is not Donald Trump.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  April 14, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 12.5%. Q2 growth  is projected at +8.1%, Q3 at +8.2%, and Q4 at +12.8%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 10.1%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.6 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0. Energy is the big contributor to Q1, S&P 500 growth.  While its percentage growth rate cannot be calculated since the sector was losing money a year ago it is in the black to the tune of $8.5 billion vs. a loss of $1.5 billion in Q1 2016. Materials:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 4/28/17)
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  April 25, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,763 a more extreme risk is 20,571.Near-term upside potential is 21,333
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ODDS FAVOR
1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.

Conclusion: It is happening now
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.

Conclusion: It started on Easter weekend in Berkeley.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….

*Stock Trader’s Almanac
……………………………………………………………………..

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

Will France’s LePen Close the Gap ?

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:20,949
S&P 500: 2,391
Nasdaq  Comp.6,091
Russell 2000: 1,399
Wednesday, May 3, 2017    8:46 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
     
Stock markets rose sharply Monday, April 24 in response to the results of the first round of France’s election for President, which showed right wing, nationalist Marine Le Pen coming in second to centrist Emmanuel Macron.  A Le Pen victory puts France’s membership in the EU at risk.
      While Macron had a 20 point lead that day, I warned that the euphoria stood to yield to uneasiness as Macron’s edge would narrow by election day, Sunday, May 7.
      Their first and only televised debate is today, and it could be a game changer.
     
As boxing fans will attest, styles make fights. Macron tends to be long-winded and unclear. Le Pen, an attorney and head of the National Front party, is more colorful, speaking in easily understood sound bites
      Should Le Pen win,
it will revive populist movement prompted by Brexit and Trump’s win. It will also rock financial markets and the EU.
       A toll on both will be extracted leading up to Sunday, if Le Pen closes the gap.
TODAY
       Worth noting, we have entered May, traditionally a month that has produced a lot of temporary tops lasting into the fall. Respect that seasonal tendency. It marks the end of the “Best Six Months for owning stocks,” (November 1 to May 1), which advanced 12.3%.
      Currently, the market is consolidating  recent gains, a normal and healthy process in upbeat markets with the Nasdaq Comp. outpacing the DJIA and S&P 500.
       The Street still believes it will see tax cuts, deregulation and big spending on the military and infrastructure.  All this on top of a stable, gradually growing economy suggests higher corporate earnings.
        Obviously (to me), they won’t get anywhere near their wish list, but Trump’s proposed stimulus will extend Obama’s economic expansion and dramatic bull market for a year or two.
      All this is the kind of stimulus that would be introduced to pull a country out of recession, not add on to an existing economic expansion, which at 96 months is the second longest on record versus the longest (120 months).
     
     
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,836:S&P 500:2,378; Nasdaq Comp.:6,073
RESISTANCE:“today”:DJIA:20,976;S&P500:2,395;NASDAQ Comp.:6,104

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET

Trump’s fascination with dictators
      
News that President Trump may under the right circumstances, meet with  North Korean President Kim Jong-un and Philippeans President Rodrigo Duterte, both ruthless dictators.
       Under the right circumstances that might be a good idea, though it undercuts  US National Security Agency policies.
        What is it with Trump’s fascination with dictators like this who have no regard for human rights, dignity, and life, men who answer to no one, especially a press ? Additionally, Trump has praised Vladimir Putin.
       Given his ultimate wish, would Trump opt for such untethered power ? 
Trump Moving to Center ?
      
Recently, Aol’s Eric Lutz  wrote, Donald Trump reportedly planning a shift to the center as he tries to reset his presidency.”  Apparently daughter Ivanka and husband Jared Kushner have been pressuring Trump to temper his politics, and perhaps making some progress.
       While it would be a good idea, since IMHO the Democrats currently appear in line to regain control of Congress in 2018.
       But Donald Trump is a narcissist, and that can include some or all of the following: vain, egotistic, selfish, ,stubborn, manipulative,  boastful, incapable of criticism resistance, superiority complex, defensive, shameless, arrogant, entitled, abusive, vindictive, untruthful, and a reality denier.  Fortunately, only 1% of people have this disorder, unfortunately, one of them is our president.
       GOOD NEWS ! A bipartisan deal was reached over the weekend  by Republicans and Democrats to keep the government open through September 30, the nation’s fiscal year end. To Trump’s surprise, it denied him many items on his wish list. Surprises included funding for the Nat’l Inst. of Health, EPA, the Advanced Research Projects Agency, and national parks.
       A hearing is scheduled for Tuesday by the House Rules Committee to vote on advancing the bill and setting procedures for a floor vote.

       BAD NEWS !  Watch your back. This sudden moonwalk  by Congress is not to be trusted.  A good night’s sleep must hard to get if you’re a Republican. Campaigning for the mid-terms is only a year away, and the unpredictable, irrational behavior of  President Trump stands to put maintaining control at risk. If suddenly, these do-nothings become doers, beware
       I have always believed there is BIG, very BIG, money out there which has too much to lose to let  an out-of-control narcissist destroy what they savor – total control of their lives and assets. The Koch brothers would be one example, though they have become more visible than others. Robert L. Mercer and daughter qualify wealth-wise, but IMHO are not politically street smart enough. My guess, they will move on to other things within two to four years.  Early on, they backed Bannon and Brietbart News – Not a good idea.
………………………………………………………………………………..
        What disturbs me is Trump dismisses his actions on ACA, immigration, his wall, sanctuary cities, etc.  as fulfilling his promises to his “base.”   Beg pardon Mr. Trump, but you are NOW the President of the United States, NOT president of a base which actually fell 2,865,075 votes short  of your opponent’s.
         ……………………………………………………………………………..
      
Education Secretary, billionaire, Betsy DeVos, wasted little time getting in lockstep with Trump’s rush to gut President Obama’s many initiatives to help young people. DeVos undercut  Obama’s initiatives to strengthen the rights of some 40 million student borrowers thus facilitating student debt repayment. Obama was responding to a rash of student defaults in face of false information and extra fees by lenders.
      How can scrapping rules designed to protect students burdened with debt, and vulnerable to predatory lending be in anyone’s interest  except the big money ?  What is it with this brand of Republican ?  Mean spirited ?  Clueless ?  I don’t get it.
      Small wonder resentment for the ultra rich is increasing.
…………………………………………………………………..
FRANCE – Don’t Count Le Pen Out Yet
     The United States isn’t the only place, “It ain’t over until it’s over.”
  Add France to Monsieur Berra’s reach.  On Monday I said euphoria over Macron’s expected victory May 7 stands to yield to uneasiness as the gap of  support he enjoys now will narrow.  Reportedly, that is already happening on the campaign trail where Le Pen scored some points and appears to be gaining momentum. Global markets soared Monday when Le Pen failed to win the presidency on the first time around.  Victory by Le Pen raises the possibility France would pull out of the EU.
STARVE the BEAST  !
    
Trump’s plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% from 35% would trigger a $2.4 trillion shortfall in government revenues, forcing massive cuts to government programs, as well as increased taxes in other areas to offset the loss.   

     This is an opportunity of a lifetime for Republicans to fulfill their dream to devastate social programs across the board, i.e. slash government income and there is no alternative but to gut government programs. 
      It’s called “Starve The Beast,” and will result in a vast reduction in the quality of life of most Americans, especially those who put Trump in office.
      Congress will waste little time seizing an opportunity of their lifetime – to ruthlessly, senselessly and wantonly dismember a system that works well without the intrusion of Republicans.
……………………………………………………………………………….
      The rape and pillage of our federal government continues,
as Republican Thomas Massie  introduced a bill in February aimed at terminating the Department of Education effective December 31, 2018. This coincided with the Senate confirmation of Conservative Betsy DeVos, a long time advocate of school vouchers and critic of public education.

      As a budget is being developed, we can expect a major revamping of the nation’s government structure and huge cuts.
      Mick Mulvaney, director of the Office of Management and Budget plans to streamline the U.S. government structure by drastic reallocation of resources away from social “Great Society” programs to the Dept. of Defense and Homeland Security.
      Action is already underway to gut the EPA and Dept. of Education, but the administration’s efforts are bound to encounter Congressional opposition, since budget cuts and the elimination of agencies will undoubtedly have widespread impact, none the least of which may be the loss of Republican House and Senate seats in 2018.     
……………………………………………………………………
I AM KEEPING THE FOLLOWING ALIVE BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN UPSTAGED BY TRUMP’S 100-DAY STAMPEDE TO  SAVE FACE.
…………….

PREUTERS WORLD NEWS APRIL 19, 4:20 PM
“A Russian government think tank controlled by Vladimir Putin developed a plan to swing the 2016 U.S. presidential election to Donald Trump and undermine voters’ faith in the American electoral system, three current and four former U.S. officials told Reuters.
      Russian documents appear to confirm what U.S. intelligence agencies have believed  all along that Russia influenced the outcome of our presidential election. 
      Yesterday, Reuters released documents, which were prepared by the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies[https://en.riss/], after the election that confirm this conclusion.
      It recommended that a, “propaganda campaign on social media and Russian backed global news outlets to encourage U.S. voters to elect a president who would take a softer line toward Russia than the administration of then-President Barach Obama, the seven officials said.”
     Additionally, a second institute document recommended Russia end its pro-Trump propaganda and intensify messaging about voter fraud to undermine the U.S. electoral system’s legitimacy and damage Clinton’s reputation.
      So far, investigations by U.S. institutions and Congress have not concluded collusion between Trump’s team and Russian operatives occurred.
     But U.S. investigations are still being conducted.
     I personally believe collusion DID take place, and odds are GOOD that it reaches far beyond collusion, that based on what I see and how people in the administration are acting.
     PRESIDENTIAL RECALL ?    
     Reportedly, there is no mechanism in the U.S. Constitution that enables voters to recall at the federal level, though 19 states permit recalls at the state and local levels. Impeachment is the only recourse in the event high crimes and misdemeanors are committed.
      The truth may never be confirmed, it being so debilitating to orderly and effective governance, that it would  result in irreparable divisiveness.
      THIS COULD BE THE ULTIMATE TEST OF THE GOVERNMENT SO MANY DEDICATED PEOPLE STRIVED AND DIED FOR.
……………………………………………………………….

TRUMP  – TOAST ?
      Just a hunch, but I think collusion regarding influencing the election is only part of something much bigger, like major league money transfers for options on oil investments, real estate holdings, and land deals. That’s why it is taking so much time.
      If we begin to see more and more of VP Pence, it may suggest the end for Trump is getting closer. Clearly, the inside knows something is about to break.  Trump is “toast,” IMVHO.
      There are so many people who know so much, and they are going to be watching out for number ONE, and that is not Donald Trump.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  April 14, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 12.5%. Q2 growth  is projected at +8.1%, Q3 at +8.2%, and Q4 at +12.8%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 10.1%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.6 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0. Energy is the big contributor to Q1, S&P 500 growth.  While its percentage growth rate cannot be calculated since the sector was losing money a year ago it is in the black to the tune of $8.5 billion vs. a loss of $1.5 billion in Q1 2016. Materials:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 4/28/17)
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  April 25, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,763 a more extreme risk is 20,571.Near-term upside potential is 21,333
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ODDS FAVOR
1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.

Conclusion: It is happening now
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.

Conclusion: It started on Easter weekend in Berkeley.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….

*Stock Trader’s Almanac
……………………………………………………………………..

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

A Temporary Top in May ?

Investor's first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:20,913
S&P 500: 2,388
Nasdaq  Comp.6,091:
Russell 2000: 1,467
Tuesday, May 2, 2017    9:01 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ECONOMY  (Repeated from yesterday)

       The economy is a mixed bag. Q1 GDP was ahead only 0.7 percent,
auto sales and consumer spending are lagging, but new home sales are  rising and business investment up sharply.
      U.S. auto sales are down in the first three months of the year. Automakers are beginning to discount aggressively to accommodate young buyers who, on top of carrying a lot of student debt, are struggling to cope with other expenses like healthcare and shelter, according to Bloomberg News.
       Odds favor an extension of the economic expansion, though soft numbers may make a sell of the administration’s tax plan to Congress more difficult.
       Justification for the shortfall in revenues that the Trump tax cuts will create depends on strong economic growth (3% – 4%), but that may run into headwinds in a year or two.   
       At 96 months, the current expansion is two months short of 8 years old. That compares  with the average length of 11 cycles since 1945 of 58.4 months.  Only one cycle was longer than this one, the Mar. 1991 to May 2001) expansion (120 mths.).
        My point here is twofold. One, it is late in the economic cycle to rely on extended economic growth to offset  tax cuts that slash government revenues and add to the national debt. Two, if we do slip into a recession (they happen), the shortfall in government revenues will be magnified. What’s more, would there be any measures the government can then employ to pull the economy out of recession ? 
TODAY (New)
      
Q1 earnings are up sharply. The Street is salivating over the possibility tax cuts will add to that justifying yet higher stock prices.
        This is a late stage bull market capable of lasting another year, maybe more.  The temptation now is to load up on stocks, there doesn’t seem to be any reason why not.
        Worth noting, we have entered May, traditionally a month that has produced a lot of temporary tops lasting into the fall. Respect that seasonal tendency. It marks the end of the “Best Six Months for owning stocks,” (November 1 to May 1), which advanced 12.3%.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,821:S&P 500:2,321; Nasdaq Comp.:6,077
RESISTANCE:“today”:DJIA:20,943;S&P500:2,391;NASDAQ Comp.:6,097

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
Trump’s fascination with dictators
      
News that President Trump may under the right circumstances, meet with  North Korean President Kim Jong-un and Philippeans President Rodrigo Duterte, both ruthless dictators.
       Under the right circumstances that might be a good idea, though it undercuts  US National Security Agency policies.
        What is it with Trump’s fascination with dictators like this who have no regard for human rights, dignity, and life, men who answer to no one, especially a press ? Additionally, Trump has praised Vladimir Putin.
       Given his ultimate wish, would Trump opt for such untethered power ?       
       GOOD NEWS !
A bipartisan deal was reached over the weekend  by Republicans and Democrats to keep the government open through September 30, the nation’s fiscal year end. To Trump’s surprise, it denied him many items on his wish list. Surprises included funding for the Nat’l Inst. of Health, EPA, the Advanced Research Projects Agency, and national parks.
       A hearing is scheduled for Tuesday by the House Rules Committee to vote on advancing the bill and setting procedures for a floor vote.

       BAD NEWS !  Watch your back. This sudden moonwalk  by Congress is not to be trusted.  A good night’s sleep must hard to get if you’re a Republican. Campaigning for the mid-terms is only a year away, and the unpredictable, irrational behavior of  President Trump stands to put maintaining control at risk. If suddenly, these do-nothings become doers, beware
       I have always believed there is BIG, very BIG, money out there which has too much to lose to let  an out-of-control narcissist destroy what they savor – total control of their lives and assets. The Koch brothers would be one example, though they have become more visible than others. Robert L. Mercer and daughter qualify wealth-wise, but IMHO are not politically street smart enough. My guess, they will move on to other things within two to four years.  Early on, they backed Bannon and Brietbart News – Not a good idea.
………………………………………………………………………………..
                 What disturbs me is Trump dismisses his actions on ACA, immigration, his wall, sanctuary cities, etc.  as fulfilling his promises to his “base.”   Beg pardon Mr. Trump, but you are NOW the President of the United States, NOT president of a base which actually fell 2,865,075 votes short  of your opponent’s.
         ……………………………………………………………………………..
      
Education Secretary, billionaire, Betsy DeVos, wasted little time getting in lockstep with Trump’s rush to gut President Obama’s many initiatives to help young people. DeVos undercut  Obama’s initiatives to strengthen the rights of some 40 million student borrowers thus facilitating student debt repayment. Obama was responding to a rash of student defaults in face of false information and extra fees by lenders.
      How can scrapping rules designed to protect students burdened with debt, and vulnerable to predatory lending be in anyone’s interest  except the big money ?  What is it with this brand of Republican ?  Mean spirited ?  Clueless ?  I don’t get it.
      Small wonder resentment for the ultra rich is increasing.
…………………………………………………………………..
FRANCE – Don’t Count Le Pen Out Yet
     The United States isn’t the only place, “It ain’t over until it’s over.”
 Add France to Monsieur Berra’s reach.  On Monday I said euphoria over Macron’s expected victory May 7 stands to yield to uneasiness as the gap of  support he enjoys now will narrow.  Reportedly, that is already happening on the campaign trail where Le Pen scored some points and appears to be gaining momentum. Global markets soared Monday when Le Pen failed to win the presidency on the first time around.  Victory by Le Pen raises the possibility France would pull out of the EU.
STARVE the BEAST  !
    
Trump’s plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% from 35% would trigger a $2.4 trillion shortfall in government revenues, forcing massive cuts to government programs, as well as increased taxes in other areas to offset the loss.   

     This is an opportunity of a lifetime for Republicans to fulfill their dream to devastate social programs across the board, i.e. slash government income and there is no alternative but to gut government programs. 
      It’s called “Starve The Beast,” and will result in a vast reduction in the quality of life of most Americans, especially those who put Trump in office.
      Congress will waste little time seizing an opportunity of their lifetime – to ruthlessly, senselessly and wantonly dismember a system that works well without the intrusion of Republicans.
……………………………………………………………………………….
      The rape and pillage of our federal government continues,
as Republican Thomas Massie  introduced a bill in February aimed at terminating the Department of Education effective December 31, 2018. This coincided with the Senate confirmation of Conservative Betsy DeVos, a long time advocate of school vouchers and critic of public education.

      As a budget is being developed, we can expect a major revamping of the nation’s government structure and huge cuts.
      Mick Mulvaney, director of the Office of Management and Budget plans to streamline the U.S. government structure by drastic reallocation of resources away from social “Great Society” programs to the Dept. of Defense and Homeland Security.
      Action is already underway to gut the EPA and Dept. of Education, but the administration’s efforts are bound to encounter Congressional opposition, since budget cuts and the elimination of agencies will undoubtedly have widespread impact, none the least of which may be the loss of Republican House and Senate seats in 2018.     
……………………………………………………………………
I AM KEEPING THE FOLLOWING ALIVE BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN UPSTAGED BY TRUMP’S 100-DAY STAMPEDE TO  SAVE FACE.
…………….

PREUTERS WORLD NEWS APRIL 19, 4:20 PM
“A Russian government think tank controlled by Vladimir Putin developed a plan to swing the 2016 U.S. presidential election to Donald Trump and undermine voters’ faith in the American electoral system, three current and four former U.S. officials told Reuters.
      Russian documents appear to confirm what U.S. intelligence agencies have believed  all along that Russia influenced the outcome of our presidential election. 
      Yesterday, Reuters released documents, which were prepared by the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies[https://en.riss/], after the election that confirm this conclusion.
      It recommended that a, “propaganda campaign on social media and Russian backed global news outlets to encourage U.S. voters to elect a president who would take a softer line toward Russia than the administration of then-President Barach Obama, the seven officials said.”
     Additionally, a second institute document recommended Russia end its pro-Trump propaganda and intensify messaging about voter fraud to undermine the U.S. electoral system’s legitimacy and damage Clinton’s reputation.
      So far, investigations by U.S. institutions and Congress have not concluded collusion between Trump’s team and Russian operatives occurred.
     But U.S. investigations are still being conducted.
     I personally believe collusion DID take place, and odds are GOOD that it reaches far beyond collusion, that based on what I see and how people in the administration are acting.
     PRESIDENTIAL RECALL ?    
     Reportedly, there is no mechanism in the U.S. Constitution that enables voters to recall at the federal level, though 19 states permit recalls at the state and local levels. Impeachment is the only recourse in the event high crimes and misdemeanors are committed.
      The truth may never be confirmed, it being so debilitating to orderly and effective governance, that it would  result in irreparable divisiveness.
      THIS COULD BE THE ULTIMATE TEST OF THE GOVERNMENT SO MANY DEDICATED PEOPLE STRIVED AND DIED FOR.
……………………………………………………………….

TRUMP  – TOAST ?
      Just a hunch, but I think collusion regarding influencing the election is only part of something much bigger, like major league money transfers for options on oil investments, real estate holdings, and land deals. That’s why it is taking so much time.
      If we begin to see more and more of VP Pence, it may suggest the end for Trump is getting closer. Clearly, the inside knows something is about to break.  Trump is “toast,” IMVHO.
      There are so many people who know so much, and they are going to be watching out for number ONE, and that is not Donald Trump.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  April 14, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 12.5%. Q2 growth  is projected at +8.1%, Q3 at +8.2%, and Q4 at +12.8%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 10.1%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.6 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0. Energy is the big contributor to Q1, S&P 500 growth.  While its percentage growth rate cannot be calculated since the sector was losing money a year ago it is in the black to the tune of $8.5 billion vs. a loss of $1.5 billion in Q1 2016. Materials:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 4/28/17)
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  April 25, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,763 a more extreme risk is 20,571.Near-term upside potential is 21,333
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ODDS FAVOR
1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.

Conclusion: It is happening now
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.

Conclusion: It started on Easter weekend in Berkeley.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….

*Stock Trader’s Almanac
……………………………………………………………………..

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Does the Bipartisan Vote Signal a Change ?

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 20,940
S&P 500: 2,384
Nasdaq  Comp.:6,047
Russell 2000: 1,400
Monday, May 1, 2017    9:11 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ECONOMY

       The economy is a mixed bag. Q1 GDP was ahead only 0.7 percent,
auto sales and consumer spending are lagging, but new home sales are  rising and business investment up sharply.
      U.S. auto sales are down in the first three months of the year. Automakers are beginning to discount aggressively to accommodate young buyers who, on top of carrying a lot of student debt, are struggling to cope with other expenses like healthcare and shelter, according to Bloomberg News.
       Odds favor an extension of the economic expansion, though soft numbers may make a sell of the administration’s tax plan to Congress more difficult.
       Justification for the shortfall in revenues that the Trump tax cuts will create depends on strong economic growth (3% – 4%), but that may run into headwinds in a year or two.    
       At 96 months, the current expansion is two months short of 8 years old. That compares  with the average length of 11 cycles since 1945 of 58.4 months.  Only one cycle was longer than this one, the Mar. 1991 to May 2001) expansion (120 mths.).
        My point here is twofold. One, it is late in the economic cycle to rely on extended economic growth to offset  tax cuts that slash government revenues and add to the national debt. Two, if we do slip into a recession (they happen), the shortfall in government revenues will be magnified. What’s more, would there be any measures the government can then employ to pull the economy out of recession ? 
        As I see it, this is a grand ploy by Republicans to destroy 50 years of social consciousness efforts, nothing short of revenge by ultra conservative Republicans (see “Starve the Beast below).
         Where have those wonderful “real’ conservatives gone, politicians who believed in proceeding carefully, but with rational governance ?  Extremes like what we are witnessing here could eventually result a Depression.
TODAY
      The Street is relieved this morning to see a bipartisan deal struck over the weekend by both parties to extend funding for the government through its fiscal year end, September 30. What’s more, it denied the Trump administration many of its spending priorities, at least for the time being.  
      Stocks should rise at the open at which time we will see whether the Street has changed its mind on its outlook for the big stimulus. The bipartisan vote may suggest the stimulus won’t be as big as the Street hoped for in recent months.
 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20:20,927;S&P 500:2,383; Nasdaq Comp.:6,043
RESISTANCE:“today”:DJIA:21,017;S&P500:2,393;NASDAQ Comp.:6,071

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
       GOOD NEWS ! A bipartisan deal was reached over the weekend  by Republicans and Democrats to keep the government open through September 30, the nation’s fiscal year end. To Trump’s surprise, it denied him many items on his wish list. Surprises included funding for the Nat’l Inst. of Health, EPA, the Advanced Research Projects Agency, and national parks.
       A hearing is scheduled for Tuesday by the House Rules Committee to vote on advancing the bill and setting procedures for a floor vote.
………………………………………………………………………………..
        During their first 100 days, President Trump  spent 22 days at Mar-a-Laga, playing golf 22 times. During their first 100 days, Obama spent four days away from the White House, but did not play golf once. Is this what Trump means when he pines he inherited a mess ?
         What disturbs me is Trump dismisses his actions on ACA, immigration, his wall, sanctuary cities, etc.  as fulfilling his promises to his “base.”   Beg pardon Mr. Trump, but you are NOW the President of the United States, NOT president of a base which actually fell 2,865,075 votes short  of your opponent’s.
         A week after all this bluster to con America into thinking Trump has accomplished something in his  “first 100 days,” people will begin to ask, “What have you done for me lately ?”
……………………………………………………………………………..
      
Education Secretary, billionaire, Betsy DeVos, wasted little time getting in lockstep with Trump’s rush to gut President Obama’s many initiatives to help young people. DeVos undercut  Obama’s initiatives to strengthen the rights of some 40 million student borrowers thus facilitating student debt repayment. Obama was responding to a rash of student defaults in face of false information and extra fees by lenders.
      How can scrapping rules designed to protect students burdened with debt, and vulnerable to predatory lending be in anyone’s interest  except the big money ?  What is it with this brand of Republican ?  Mean spirited ?  Clueless ?  I don’t get it.
      Small wonder resentment for the ultra rich is increasing.
…………………………………………………………………..
FRANCE – Don’t Count Le Pen Out Yet
     The United States isn’t the only place, “It ain’t over until it’s over.”
  Add France to Monsieur Berra’s reach.  On Monday I said euphoria over Macron’s expected victory May 7 stands to yield to uneasiness as the gap of  support he enjoys now will narrow.  Reportedly, that is already happening on the campaign trail where Le Pen scored some points and appears to be gaining momentum. Global markets soared Monday when Le Pen failed to win the presidency on the first time around.  Victory by Le Pen raises the possibility France would pull out of the EU.
STARVE the BEAST  !
    
Trump’s plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% from 35% would trigger a $2.4 trillion shortfall in government revenues, forcing massive cuts to government programs, as well as increased taxes in other areas to offset the loss.   

     This is an opportunity of a lifetime for Republicans to fulfill their dream to devastate social programs across the board, i.e. slash government income and there is no alternative but to gut government programs. 
      It’s called “Starve The Beast,” and will result in a vast reduction in the quality of life of most Americans, especially those who put Trump in office.
      Congress will waste little time seizing an opportunity of their lifetime – to ruthlessly, senselessly and wantonly dismember a system that works well without the intrusion of Republicans.
……………………………………………………………………………….
      The rape and pillage of our federal government continues,
as Republican Thomas Massie  introduced a bill in February aimed at terminating the Department of Education effective December 31, 2018. This coincided with the Senate confirmation of Conservative Betsy DeVos, a long time advocate of school vouchers and critic of public education.

      As a budget is being developed, we can expect a major revamping of the nation’s government structure and huge cuts.
      Mick Mulvaney, director of the Office of Management and Budget plans to streamline the U.S. government structure by drastic reallocation of resources away from social “Great Society” programs to the Dept. of Defense and Homeland Security.
      Action is already underway to gut the EPA and Dept. of Education, but the administration’s efforts are bound to encounter Congressional opposition, since budget cuts and the elimination of agencies will undoubtedly have widespread impact, none the least of which may be the loss of Republican House and Senate seats in 2018.     
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I AM KEEPING THIS ALIVE BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN UPSTAGED BY TRUMP’S 100-DAY STAMPEDE TO  SAVE FACE.
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PREUTERS WORLD NEWS APRIL 19, 4:20 PM
“A Russian government think tank controlled by Vladimir Putin developed a plan to swing the 2016 U.S. presidential election to Donald Trump and undermine voters’ faith in the American electoral system, three current and four former U.S. officials told Reuters.
      Russian documents appear to confirm what U.S. intelligence agencies have believed  all along that Russia influenced the outcome of our presidential election. 
      Yesterday, Reuters released documents, which were prepared by the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies[https://en.riss/], after the election that confirm this conclusion.
      It recommended that a, “propaganda campaign on social media and Russian backed global news outlets to encourage U.S. voters to elect a president who would take a softer line toward Russia than the administration of then-President Barach Obama, the seven officials said.”
     Additionally, a second institute document recommended Russia end its pro-Trump propaganda and intensify messaging about voter fraud to undermine the U.S. electoral system’s legitimacy and damage Clinton’s reputation.
      So far, investigations by U.S. institutions and Congress have not concluded collusion between Trump’s team and Russian operatives occurred.
     But U.S. investigations are still being conducted.
     I personally believe collusion DID take place, and odds are GOOD that it reaches far beyond collusion, that based on what I see and how people in the administration are acting.
     PRESIDENTIAL RECALL ?    
     Reportedly, there is no mechanism in the U.S. Constitution that enables voters to recall at the federal level, though 19 states permit recalls at the state and local levels. Impeachment is the only recourse in the event high crimes and misdemeanors are committed.
      The truth may never be confirmed, it being so debilitating to orderly and effective governance, that it would  result in irreparable divisiveness.
      THIS COULD BE THE ULTIMATE TEST OF THE GOVERNMENT SO MANY DEDICATED PEOPLE STRIVED AND DIED FOR.
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TRUMP  – TOAST ?
      Just a hunch, but I think collusion regarding influencing the election is only part of something much bigger, like major league money transfers for options on oil investments, real estate holdings, and land deals. That’s why it is taking so much time.
      If we begin to see more and more of VP Pence, it may suggest the end for Trump is getting closer. Clearly, the inside knows something is about to break.  Trump is “toast,” IMVHO.
      There are so many people who know so much, and they are going to be watching out for number ONE, and that is not Donald Trump.

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WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
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CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  April 14, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 12.5%. Q2 growth  is projected at +8.1%, Q3 at +8.2%, and Q4 at +12.8%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 10.1%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.6 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0. Energy is the big contributor to Q1, S&P 500 growth.  While its percentage growth rate cannot be calculated since the sector was losing money a year ago it is in the black to the tune of $8.5 billion vs. a loss of $1.5 billion in Q1 2016. Materials:
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MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 4/28/17)
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  April 25, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,763 a more extreme risk is 20,571.Near-term upside potential is 21,333
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ODDS FAVOR
1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.

Conclusion: It is happening now
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.

Conclusion: It started on Easter weekend in Berkeley.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
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*Stock Trader’s Almanac
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George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.