Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 21,029
S&P 500: 2,412
Nasdaq  Comp.:6,203
Russell 2000: 1,371
Wednesday, May 31, 2017    9:08 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Opinion: The trouble with many liberals is, if they had 8 cheeks, they’d turn all 8 before standing  firm for what they believe in. It’s time to get tough, mean and nasty. Extremist Republicans are racing to gut every social program enacted since Medicare in 1966, that was intended to fortify tens of millions Americans who are simply on the edge of basic survival day in and day out.        

      This further divides our country and stands to create our own home-grown insurgency. Forget  Republicans as we once knew them, and conservatives. They don’t exist.  These are Congressional anarchists, bent on shredding the fabric of what made our country great, and replacing it with some form of quasi fascist state.   Not Americans, not Christians.
      This is not what the soldiers we honored yesterday died for; this is not what they are fighting for today. This trend has no future.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
THE STOCK MARKET
TODAY
      Buyers
are back after the long weekend, heartened by good Q1 earnings (+13.9%).  Q2 won’t match that but stands to be good enough to keep bulls on course. So far the Street has little concern for President Trump’s bluster, or Congress’ determination to gut social programs and civil rights protections, why should they ? These aren’t their clients.
      If Trump is removed from office, they have Pence and a less disruptive administration.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:21,011;S&P 500:2,410; Nasdaq Comp.:6,211
RESISTANCE “today” DJIA:21,083;S&P 500:2,418;Nasdaq Comp.:6,215

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
CORPORATE EARNINGS
(updated  May 26, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 13.9%. Q2 growth  is projected at +6.8%, Q3 at +7.5%, and Q4 at +12.4%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 9.9%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.6 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0.
Note: These numbers change frequently.
 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 5/15/17)
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  April 25, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,856 a more extreme risk is 20,703.Near-term upside potential is 21,333
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 
POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
 
TRUMP IN EUROPE
      One of my greatest concerns with Trump has been that his rash, pointless  actions will lead to the break up of NATO, and eventually the European Union. Clearly, nothing  would be higher on Vladimir Putin’s wish list.
      Trump took a first step toward that end by withholding support for NATO when he refused  to ensure members the Untied States  would uphold Article 5 of NATO’s founding treaty, whereby an attack on one member is considered an attack on all members, (collective defense).  Ironically, the Article was invoked once in 68 years when NATO members responded to the 9/11 terrorist attacks against the United States. Additionally, he chastised members for not contributing enough money to support NATO. To some extent, there is merit in that criticism, but most of NATO’s 28 members are attempting to do that.
       What’s more, Trump refused to support the G-7 on international trade and may withdraw from the Paris Accord, where 147 participants agreed on a global effort to address climate change.
       This is exactly what I meant when on January 3, I headlined this blog, “Trump – A Human Wrecking Ball.”
…………………………………………………………………
Jared Kushner – The Plot Thickens
     
Last week NBC News reported that Jared Kushner has come under FBI scrutiny in the Russia investigation and new revelations that he had sought to establish  a secure and secret communications back channel with Russia last December when Kushner met with Russian ambassador Sergei KislyakReportedly, former Trump National Security Advisor, Michael Flynn, also attended that meeting.    

Reprinted from my blog on March 29:
      “According to Business Insider.com, Jared Kushner failed to disclose meeting with the CEO, Sergey N. Gorkov, of Vnesheconmbank (VEB) in December 2016. The bank is Russia’s bank for “Development and Foreign Economic Affairs.  Reportedly, the bank was struggling in face of Russia’s economic woes.  Kushner was seeking investors for a Fifth Avenue office building that is reportedly set to be financed through Anbang Insurance Group, a company with ties to the Chinese government. A White House spokesman denied the New York office project was discussed.

      What then was discussed ?
       Maybe we will find out.  The bank has been subject to US sanctions for three years.  Gorkov was a graduate  from the Russian academy of Federal Security Service, which trains people for intelligence and security work.
      The meeting took place in December 2016, a meeting which Kushner did not initially disclose on his security clearance forms.
       That’s perfectly understandable, such a meeting would slip anyone’s mind.

…………………………………………………………………………………..
      President Trump’s budget is obviously DOA, with lots of blowback by Republicans looking to their prospects of re-election in 2018. The budget is a disgrace to who we are as Americans, as it skewers a portion of our society with little ability to defend itself, much less survive. It is who the Trump administration is, an administration run by billionaires with little regard for the interests of many of the people who mistakenly voted them into office.
      Some form of this budget will pass, and that’s going to widen the gap between the very well off and the poor, even what’s left of the middle class.  America’s strength lies in unity, this kind of heartless legislation does more damage than any foreign adversary.  
      WHAT IS THIS MAN HIDING ?
       Days after FBI director James Comey publicly confirmed the FBI was investigating collusion between Trump and associates and Russian operatives regarding the November election, Trump contacted two intelligence officials, Daniel Coats, director of National Intelligence and Adm. Michael Rogers, director of the National Security Agency, urging them to deny there was any such collusion. Both declined to comply.
      The issue here is not so much that Trump asked them to issue statements, but that he asked them to issue false statements.
      Why, unless there is something to hide regarding collusion, or a door that investigation may open to something else ?
………………………………………………………………………………..
       If President Trump fired FBI chief Comey, he can fire Mueller, and anyone who replaces him. He can sabotage the investigation in a number of ways, one of which comes out of the Code of Federal Regulations which restricts newly hired government lawyers from investigating prior law firm’s clients for one year after hiring. Mueller’s former law firm, Reportedly, Paul Manafort, Jared Kushner and his wife (Trump’s daughter) are all clients of Mueller’s former law firm, WilmerHale.****
       Reportedly, Kushner is the “person of interest”  in the investigation of ties between the Trump campaign and Russian operatives.
       This has to get very, very ugly, and that could seriously impact the Trump administration’s ability to deliver the massive stimulus (tax cuts, deregulation, and a big spend on the military and maybe the infrastructure.
…………………………………………………………………………………
IMPEACHMENT

      The U.S. Constitution  enables Congress to remove a president for “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.” Intitially, the House votes on one or more articles of impeachment- if a majority vote is reached, he is impeached.  BUT, impeachment only means indictment. The Senate holds a trial overseen by the chief justice and Supreme Court. A group of House members serve as prosecutors and the Senate as jurors. If two-thirds of the senators find the president guilty, he is removed from office and the vice president takes over.***
………………………………………………………………………………
PSYCHOLOGY 101 ?
     
The Trump presidency, has issued in a whole new set of psychological terms, none flattering to President Trump or the voters who put him in office.

CONFIRMATION BIAS:  the tendency to interpret, perceive, or recall information in a way that confirms one’s pre-existing  beliefs even when faced with irrefutable proof to the contrary.  Having a closed mind to one’s own peril would be another way of putting it. Is it sheer stupidity to vote against one’s best interests ?  Yes, but they do it all the time. Credit lack of information, or simply the inability to mentally and emotionally process information accurately and without bias.  
DEVIANCY DOWN:  A term originally used by the late Senator Patrick Moynihan to warn voters against accepting bad behavior, stupidity, demagoguery, lying, ignorance as the “norm.”
      Bloomberg’s Albert Hunt, wrote about it on May 14, referring to Trump critics being in awe when Trump gives a speech that is reasonably coherent or takes sensible action on something.  Suddenly  critics treat it as a momentous occasion, when in fact, it is what presidents are expected to do.
      Essentially, it is the dumbing down of a person’s behavior. This is partly responsible for Trump supporters and Republicans in Congress  accepting Trumps obnoxious behavior, uncharacteristic of past presidents.  In spite of all of Trump’s nonsensical bluster and tweets, even his critics are relieved when he has a moment of sanity, hopeful that a new Trump has emerged, one who acts presidential. Why is inferior behavior acceptable ? Don’t know, but my guess is people feel less inferior when a high level official like Trump acts inferior too.

DUNNING-KRUGER EFFECT: A cognitive bias whereby people of low mental or physical ability actually perceive themselves as excelling in those areas.  Columnist, George Will recently touched on this, concluding Trump suffers from a dangerous disability, not only because he’s ignorant, and ignorant of his ignorance, but because  he does not know what it is to know something.”  
      WOW !  You said that, George ?
  Another way to say it would be, a person who thinks they know everything but in fact don’t know what it is to know something. It’s a failure to recognize their own shortcomings, so they conclude they have none.  Unfortunately, in addition to being a narcissist, Trump falls into this category. Just because he has been successful in real estate and show business, he concludes he can be successful at anything.
      Voters in this category don’t feel they need to do any  research on qualifications or policies, they simply know how to vote, because they can’t make the wrong decision – too smart !
…………………………………………………………..

HEALTHCARE:  NOW THE HOUSE REPUBLICANS OWN IT !
NOTE:
This is just the beginning and information is still sketchy. One excellent source is the Henry J. Kaiser Foundation (www.kff.org)
      The House narrowly passed the American Health Care Act (AHCA) last week by a vote of 217 to 213. 
      The House failed twice to pass a similar version. The bill was rushed through without pursuing standard practices – discussions and cost and consequence scoring, by the CBO.

      It now goes to the Senate where it will encounter changes and possibly rejection. Senator Susan Collins, Maine, says there is no timeline for Senate consideration, only that she expects the Senate to take its time and do it right.
      AHCA is not the law of the land yet. All this negativity and uncertainty must make it next to impossible for Insurance companies to project risk and coverage.  That in itself stands to press ACA to the edge.      

       Republicans will now move on to tax deform where it will tip the scales further in favor of corporations and upper income persons.

THE RISK !     

      If successful, this administration’s late-stage stimulus will set the stage for a huge shortfall in US government receipts, resulting in the need to gut  dozens of government programs that address need and quality of life.
        For the most part Republicans, greedy bankers and financial institutions gave us the “Great Recession/Bear Market” 2007-2009.  The next one will be worse, because the government will lack the fiscal stimuli to pull the country out of its depressed state. 
       Can’t happen ?   Weren’t safeguards imposed through Dodd-Frank to prevent another meltdown ?
       Yes, however the House voted Thursday to roll back many of those measures, which they claim have slowed down economic growth. This is the same pattern of corporate “permissiveness” that set the stage for the 2007 – 2009 crash. ”Read “Too Big To Fail” by Sorkin, just don’t make it bedtime reading. 

………………………………………………………………………
PREUTERS WORLD NEWS APRIL 19, 4:20 PM
“A Russian government think tank controlled by Vladimir Putin developed a plan to swing the 2016 U.S. presidential election to Donald Trump and undermine voters’ faith in the American electoral system, three current and four former U.S. officials told Reuters.
      Russian documents appear to confirm what U.S. intelligence agencies have believed  all along that Russia influenced the outcome of our presidential election. 
      Yesterday, Reuters released documents, which were prepared by the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies[https://en.riss/], after the election that confirm this conclusion.
      It recommended that a, “propaganda campaign on social media and Russian backed global news outlets to encourage U.S. voters to elect a president who would take a softer line toward Russia than the administration of then-President Barach Obama, the seven officials said.”
     Additionally, a second institute document recommended Russia end its pro-Trump propaganda and intensify messaging about voter fraud to undermine the U.S. electoral system’s legitimacy and damage Clinton’s reputation.
      So far, investigations by U.S. institutions and Congress have not concluded collusion between Trump’s team and Russian operatives occurred.
     But U.S. investigations are still being conducted.
     I personally believe collusion DID take place, and odds are GOOD that it reaches far beyond collusion, that based on what I see and how people in the administration are acting.
……………………………………………………………….

TRUMP  – TOAST ?
      Just a hunch, but I think collusion regarding influencing the election is only part of something much bigger, like major league money transfers for options on oil investments, real estate holdings, and land deals. That’s why it is taking so much time.
      If we begin to see more and more of VP Pence, it may suggest the end for Trump is getting closer. Clearly, the inside knows something is about to break.  Trump is “toast,” IMVHO.
      There are so many people who know so much, and they are going to be watching out for number ONE, and that is not Donald Trump.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note:
Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
*CBS News
**Bloomberg: Noah Feldman (May 17, 2017)
*** New York Times: Charles Savage, (May 18, 2017)
**** Reuters
*****Stock Trader’s Almanac
……………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Storm Warnings Coming Months

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 21,077
S&P 500: 2,415
Nasdaq  Comp.:6,210
Russell 2000: 1,382
Tuesday, May 30, 2017    9:08 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Opinion: The trouble with many liberals is, if they had 8 cheeks, they’d turn all 8 before standing  firm for what they believe in. It’s time to get tough, mean and nasty. Extremist Republicans are racing to gut every social program enacted since Medicare in 1966, that was intended to fortify tens of millions Americans who are simply on the edge of basic survival day in and day out.        

      This further divides our country and stands to create our own home-grown insurgency. Forget  Republicans as we once knew them, and conservatives. They don’t exist.  These are Congressional anarchists, bent on shredding the fabric of what made our country great, and replacing it with some form of quasi fascist state.   Not Americans, not Christians.
      This is not what the soldiers we honored yesterday died for; this is not what they are fighting for today. This trend has no future.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
THE STOCK MARKET
      Q1 earnings are in and the quarter appeared to be  a boomer, at least for S&P 500 companies, which in aggregate, posted a 13.9% gain. However, put in perspective, that rate of growth comes off prior year’s Q1 earnings that were depressed, following five straight quarterly earnings declines. Rates of change, percentage changes, etc. can be misleading, as much depends not so much on the current number, as on what it is compared with in the past.
      Obviously, it helps that earnings are improving. In reality, the Street is counting on the big stimulus, as I have said just about every day this year.      
       It’s clearly not happening as quickly as the Street expected late last year. The Trump administration and Congress are finding Trumpcare, tax reform, deregulation and the approval of a big military/infrastructure spend slow going.
       There is vulnerability here, that is a given. For a major market correction/bear market to begin, the Street will have to give up on any meaningful stimulus happening.  So far, the market’s ability to rebound after a brief sell off, indicates the Street is buying dips, confident the stimulus is going to happen.
TODAY
      Look for a little slippage at the open today, followed by an attempt to punch to new highs. A seven-day rally since May 18 may need to take a breather. However, momentum is hard to shut down, as institutions scramble to establish positions in stocks that press higher and higher.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:21,029;S&P 500:2,408; Nasdaq Comp.:6,204
RESISTANCE “today” DJIA:21,116;S&P 500:2,419;Nasdaq Comp.:6,222

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
CORPORATE EARNINGS
(updated  May 26, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 13.9%. Q2 growth  is projected at +6.8%, Q3 at +7.5%, and Q4 at +12.4%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 9.9%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.6 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0.
Note: These numbers change frequently.
 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 5/15/17)
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  April 25, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,856 a more extreme risk is 20,703.Near-term upside potential is 21,333
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 
POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
Jared Kushner – The Plot Thickens
     
Last week NBC News reported that Jared Kushner has come under FBI scrutiny in the Russia investigation and new revelations that he had sought to establish  a secure and secret communications back channel with Russia last December when Kushner met with Russian ambassador Sergei KislyakReportedly, former Trump National Security Advisor, Michael Flynn, also attended that meeting.    

Reprinted from my blog on March 29:
      “According to Business Insider.com, Jared Kushner failed to disclose meeting with the CEO, Sergey N. Gorkov, of Vnesheconmbank (VEB) in December 2016. The bank is Russia’s bank for “Development and Foreign Economic Affairs.  Reportedly, the bank was struggling in face of Russia’s economic woes.  Kushner was seeking investors for a Fifth Avenue office building that is reportedly set to be financed through Anbang Insurance Group, a company with ties to the Chinese government. A White House spokesman denied the New York office project was discussed.

      What then was discussed ?
       Maybe we will find out.  The bank has been subject to US sanctions for three years.  Gorkov was a graduate  from the Russian academy of Federal Security Service, which trains people for intelligence and security work.
      The meeting took place in December 2016, a meeting which Kushner did not initially disclose on his security clearance forms.
       That’s perfectly understandable, such a meeting would slip anyone’s mind.

…………………………………………………………………………………..
      President Trump’s budget is obviously DOA, with lots of blowback by Republicans looking to their prospects of re-election in 2018. The budget is a disgrace to who we are as Americans, as it skewers a portion of our society with little ability to defend itself, much less survive. It is who the Trump administration is, an administration run by billionaires with little regard for the interests of many of the people who mistakenly voted them into office.
      Some form of this budget will pass, and that’s going to widen the gap between the very well off and the poor, even what’s left of the middle class.  America’s strength lies in unity, this kind of heartless legislation does more damage than any foreign adversary.  
      WHAT IS THIS MAN HIDING ?
       Days after FBI director James Comey publicly confirmed the FBI was investigating collusion between Trump and associates and Russian operatives regarding the November election, Trump contacted two intelligence officials, Daniel Coats, director of National Intelligence and Adm. Michael Rogers, director of the National Security Agency, urging them to deny there was any such collusion. Both declined to comply.
      The issue here is not so much that Trump asked them to issue statements, but that he asked them to issue false statements.
      Why, unless there is something to hide regarding collusion, or a door that investigation may open to something else ?
………………………………………………………………………………..
       If President Trump fired FBI chief Comey, he can fire Mueller, and anyone who replaces him. He can sabotage the investigation in a number of ways, one of which comes out of the Code of Federal Regulations which restricts newly hired government lawyers from investigating prior law firm’s clients for one year after hiring. Mueller’s former law firm, Reportedly, Paul Manafort, Jared Kushner and his wife (Trump’s daughter) are all clients of Mueller’s former law firm, WilmerHale.****
       Reportedly, Kushner is the “person of interest”  in the investigation of ties between the Trump campaign and Russian operatives.
       This has to get very, very ugly, and that could seriously impact the Trump administration’s ability to deliver the massive stimulus (tax cuts, deregulation, and a big spend on the military and maybe the infrastructure.
…………………………………………………………………………………
IMPEACHMENT

      The U.S. Constitution  enables Congress to remove a president for “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.” Intitially, the House votes on one or more articles of impeachment- if a majority vote is reached, he is impeached.  BUT, impeachment only means indictment. The Senate holds a trial overseen by the chief justice and Supreme Court. A group of House members serve as prosecutors and the Senate as jurors. If two-thirds of the senators find the president guilty, he is removed from office and the vice president takes over.***
………………………………………………………………………………
PSYCHOLOGY 101 ?
      
The Trump presidency, has issued in a whole new set of psychological terms, none flattering to President Trump or the voters who put him in office.

CONFIRMATION BIAS:  the tendency to interpret, perceive, or recall information in a way that confirms one’s pre-existing  beliefs even when faced with irrefutable proof to the contrary.  Having a closed mind to one’s own peril would be another way of putting it. Is it sheer stupidity to vote against one’s best interests ?  Yes, but they do it all the time. Credit lack of information, or simply the inability to mentally and emotionally process information accurately and without bias.  
DEVIANCY DOWN:  A term originally used by the late Senator Patrick Moynihan to warn voters against accepting bad behavior, stupidity, demagoguery, lying, ignorance as the “norm.”
      Bloomberg’s Albert Hunt, wrote about it on May 14, referring to Trump critics being in awe when Trump gives a speech that is reasonably coherent or takes sensible action on something.  Suddenly  critics treat it as a momentous occasion, when in fact, it is what presidents are expected to do.
      Essentially, it is the dumbing down of a person’s behavior. This is partly responsible for Trump supporters and Republicans in Congress  accepting Trumps obnoxious behavior, uncharacteristic of past presidents.  In spite of all of Trump’s nonsensical bluster and tweets, even his critics are relieved when he has a moment of sanity, hopeful that a new Trump has emerged, one who acts presidential. Why is inferior behavior acceptable ? Don’t know, but my guess is people feel less inferior when a high level official like Trump acts inferior too.

DUNNING-KRUGER EFFECT: A cognitive bias whereby people of low mental or physical ability actually perceive themselves as excelling in those areas.  Columnist, George Will recently touched on this, concluding Trump suffers from a dangerous disability, not only because he’s ignorant, and ignorant of his ignorance, but because  he does not know what it is to know something.”  
      WOW !  You said that, George ?
  Another way to say it would be, a person who thinks they know everything but in fact don’t know what it is to know something. It’s a failure to recognize their own shortcomings, so they conclude they have none.  Unfortunately, in addition to being a narcissist, Trump falls into this category. Just because he has been successful in real estate and show business, he concludes he can be successful at anything.
      Voters in this category don’t feel they need to do any  research on qualifications or policies, they simply know how to vote, because they can’t make the wrong decision – too smart !
…………………………………………………………..

HEALTHCARE:  NOW THE HOUSE REPUBLICANS OWN IT !
NOTE:
This is just the beginning and information is still sketchy. One excellent source is the Henry J. Kaiser Foundation (www.kff.org)
      The House narrowly passed the American Health Care Act (AHCA) last week by a vote of 217 to 213. 
      The House failed twice to pass a similar version. The bill was rushed through without pursuing standard practices – discussions and cost and consequence scoring, by the CBO.

      It now goes to the Senate where it will encounter changes and possibly rejection. Senator Susan Collins, Maine, says there is no timeline for Senate consideration, only that she expects the Senate to take its time and do it right.
      AHCA is not the law of the land yet. All this negativity and uncertainty must make it next to impossible for Insurance companies to project risk and coverage.  That in itself stands to press ACA to the edge.      

       Republicans will now move on to tax deform where it will tip the scales further in favor of corporations and upper income persons.

THE RISK !      

      If successful, this administration’s late-stage stimulus will set the stage for a huge shortfall in US government receipts, resulting in the need to gut  dozens of government programs that address need and quality of life.
        For the most part Republicans, greedy bankers and financial institutions gave us the “Great Recession/Bear Market” 2007-2009.  The next one will be worse, because the government will lack the fiscal stimuli to pull the country out of its depressed state. 
       Can’t happen ?   Weren’t safeguards imposed through Dodd-Frank to prevent another meltdown ?
       Yes, however the House voted Thursday to roll back many of those measures, which they claim have slowed down economic growth. This is the same pattern of corporate “permissiveness” that set the stage for the 2007 – 2009 crash. ”Read “Too Big To Fail” by Sorkin, just don’t make it bedtime reading. 

………………………………………………………………………
PREUTERS WORLD NEWS APRIL 19, 4:20 PM
“A Russian government think tank controlled by Vladimir Putin developed a plan to swing the 2016 U.S. presidential election to Donald Trump and undermine voters’ faith in the American electoral system, three current and four former U.S. officials told Reuters.
      Russian documents appear to confirm what U.S. intelligence agencies have believed  all along that Russia influenced the outcome of our presidential election. 
      Yesterday, Reuters released documents, which were prepared by the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies[https://en.riss/], after the election that confirm this conclusion.
      It recommended that a, “propaganda campaign on social media and Russian backed global news outlets to encourage U.S. voters to elect a president who would take a softer line toward Russia than the administration of then-President Barach Obama, the seven officials said.”
     Additionally, a second institute document recommended Russia end its pro-Trump propaganda and intensify messaging about voter fraud to undermine the U.S. electoral system’s legitimacy and damage Clinton’s reputation.
      So far, investigations by U.S. institutions and Congress have not concluded collusion between Trump’s team and Russian operatives occurred.
     But U.S. investigations are still being conducted.
     I personally believe collusion DID take place, and odds are GOOD that it reaches far beyond collusion, that based on what I see and how people in the administration are acting.
……………………………………………………………….

TRUMP  – TOAST ?
      Just a hunch, but I think collusion regarding influencing the election is only part of something much bigger, like major league money transfers for options on oil investments, real estate holdings, and land deals. That’s why it is taking so much time.
      If we begin to see more and more of VP Pence, it may suggest the end for Trump is getting closer. Clearly, the inside knows something is about to break.  Trump is “toast,” IMVHO.
      There are so many people who know so much, and they are going to be watching out for number ONE, and that is not Donald Trump.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note:
Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
*CBS News
**Bloomberg: Noah Feldman (May 17, 2017)
*** New York Times: Charles Savage, (May 18, 2017)
**** Reuters
*****Stock Trader’s Almanac
……………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Russian “Thing” Threat to Stimulus ?

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 21,082
S&P 500: 2,415
Nasdaq  Comp.6,208:
Russell 2000: 1,383
Friday, May 26, 2017    9:08 a.m.
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Memorial Day: Let’s take a moment to be grateful for the sacrifice of those who lost their lives in the service of their country and be supportive of those who have their lives on line today and the  families of both.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    
The Russian thing simply won’t go away.  News surfaced from multiple U.S. officials that Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law, and a top adviser to him, has come under FBI scrutiny.
      That doesn’t surprise me, in my blog on March 29, I questioned why Kushner would meet with Sergey N. Gorkov, CEO of Russia’s state bank, Vnesheconmbank, in December, 2016, a meeting which Kushner did not initially disclose on his security clearance forms.
       That’s perfectly understandable, such a meeting could slip anyone’s mind !
(see details Political/Stock Market  below).
      To-date, Senate, House and FBI investigations into the possible collusion between Trump’s associates and Russian operatives to skew the November election in Trump’s favor have not adversely impacted the stock market.  With the inclusion of Kushner in the investigations, it’s now all in the family, and could get ugly.  However, the Street cares most about whether it will benefit from all the promised goodies (tax cuts, dereg., a big spend), and little about  who did what !
       That can change if the investigations threaten the Trump administration’s ability to deliver on those promises. Investors became spooked in 1973-1974, as daily disclosures of a cover up began to have an impact on stock prices in the Nixon Watergate scandal when, with help from the OPEC Oil Embargo, the market dropped 48% as the noose tightened on a cover up.
       This can get ugly, and investor confidence is still a determinant in stock valuations even though computer algorithms (algos) make most of the investment decisions today. 
        This bull market has been very resilient to adverse news, primarily due to the bull bias in the algos.  Any change to a bear bias would come instantly and stocks would head south sharply.
         We may see some slippage in the market if the Street gets nervous about the investigations and a delay in stimulus, but the scene is different now. Institutions dominate trading today versus the early 1970s with hot money accounting for most of the activity.  Investments are more highly leveraged today. 
      Stocks have greater appeal today versus  bonds. Today the 10-year Treasury Bond yields 2.25%, in 1973 (Watergate years) it yielded 6.46%, i.e., there was a more attractive  alternative to stocks back then, though the Consumer Price Index rate of change was 6.2% in 1973 versus 1.3% today.
TODAY
      Odds favor an attempt to sell off a bit today ahead of a three-day weekend, and uncertainty of what to expect next out or Washington.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:21,027;S&P 500:2,412; Nasdaq Comp.:6,197
RESISTANCE “today” DJIA:21,097;S&P 500:2,418;Nasdaq Comp.:6,213

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
CORPORATE EARNINGS
(updated  May 19, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 13.9%. Q2 growth  is projected at +6.8%, Q3 at +7.5%, and Q4 at +12.4%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 9.9%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.3 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0.
Note: These numbers change frequently.
 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 5/15/17)
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  April 25, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,856 a more extreme risk is 20,703.Near-term upside potential is 21,333
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 
POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
Jared Kushner – The Plot Thickens       

Reprinted from my blog on March 29:
      “According to Business Insider.com, Jared Kushner failed to disclose meeting with the CEO, Sergey N. Gorkov, of Vnesheconmbank in December 2016. The bank is Russia’s bank for “Development and Foreign Economic Affairs.  Reportedly, the bank was struggling in face of Russia’s economic woes.  Kushner was seeking investors for a Fifth Avenue office building that is reportedly set to be financed through Anbang Insurance Group, a company with ties to the Chinese government. A White House spokesman denied the New York office project was discussed.

      What then was discussed ?
       Maybe we will find out.  The bank has been subject to US sanctions for three years.  Gorkov was a graduate  from the Russian academy of Federal Security Service, which trains people for intelligence and security work.
      The meeting took place in December 2016, a meeting which Kushner did not initially disclose on his security clearance forms.
       That’s perfectly understandable, such a meeting would slip anyone’s mind.

…………………………………………………………………………………..
      President Trump’s budget is obviously DOA, with lots of blowback by Republicans looking to their prospects of re-election in 2018. The budget is a disgrace to who we are as Americans, as it skewers a portion of our society with little ability to defend itself, much less survive. It is who the Trump administration is, an administration run by billionaires with little regard for the interests of many of the people who mistakenly voted them into office.
      Some form of this budget will pass, and that’s going to widen the gap between the very well off and the poor, even what’s left of the middle class.  America’s strength lies in unity, this kind of heartless legislation does more damage than any foreign adversary.  
      WHAT IS THIS MAN HIDING ?
       Days after FBI director James Comey publicly confirmed the FBI was investigating collusion between Trump and associates and Russian operatives regarding the November election, Trump contacted two intelligence officials, Daniel Coats, director of National Intelligence and Adm. Michael Rogers, director of the National Security Agency, urging them to deny there was any such collusion. Both declined to comply.
      The issue here is not so much that Trump asked them to issue statements, but that he asked them to issue false statements.
      Why, unless there is something to hide regarding collusion, or a door that investigation may open to something else ?
………………………………………………………………………………..
       If President Trump fired FBI chief Comey, he can fire Mueller, and anyone who replaces him. He can sabotage the investigation in a number of ways, one of which comes out of the Code of Federal Regulations which restricts newly hired government lawyers from investigating prior law firm’s clients for one year after hiring. Mueller’s former law firm, Reportedly, Paul Manafort, Jared Kushner and his wife (Trump’s daughter) are all clients of Mueller’s former law firm, WilmerHale.****
       Reportedly, Kushner is the “person of interest”  in the investigation of ties between the Trump campaign and Russian operatives.
       This has to get very, very ugly, and that could seriously impact the Trump administration’s ability to deliver the massive stimulus (tax cuts, deregulation, and a big spend on the military and maybe the infrastructure.
…………………………………………………………………………………
IMPEACHMENT

      The U.S. Constitution  enables Congress to remove a president for “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.” Intitially, the House votes on one or more articles of impeachment- if a majority vote is reached, he is impeached.  BUT, impeachment only means indictment. The Senate holds a trial overseen by the chief justice and Supreme Court. A group of House members serve as prosecutors and the Senate as jurors. If two-thirds of the senators find the president guilty, he is removed from office and the vice president takes over.***
………………………………………………………………………………
PSYCHOLOGY 101 ?
     
The Trump presidency, has issued in a whole new set of psychological terms, none flattering to President Trump or the voters who put him in office.

CONFIRMATION BIAS:  the tendency to interpret, perceive, or recall information in a way that confirms one’s pre-existing  beliefs even when faced with irrefutable proof to the contrary.  Having a closed mind to one’s own peril would be another way of putting it. Is it sheer stupidity to vote against one’s best interests ?  Yes, but they do it all the time. Credit lack of information, or simply the inability to mentally and emotionally process information accurately and without bias.  
DEVIANCY DOWN:  A term originally used by the late Senator Patrick Moynihan to warn voters against accepting bad behavior, stupidity, demagoguery, lying, ignorance as the “norm.”
      Bloomberg’s Albert Hunt, wrote about it on May 14, referring to Trump critics being in awe when Trump gives a speech that is reasonably coherent or takes sensible action on something.  Suddenly  critics treat it as a momentous occasion, when in fact, it is what presidents are expected to do.
      Essentially, it is the dumbing down of a person’s behavior. This is partly responsible for Trump supporters and Republicans in Congress  accepting Trumps obnoxious behavior, uncharacteristic of past presidents.  In spite of all of Trump’s nonsensical bluster and tweets, even his critics are relieved when he has a moment of sanity, hopeful that a new Trump has emerged, one who acts presidential. Why is inferior behavior acceptable ? Don’t know, but my guess is people feel less inferior when a high level official like Trump acts inferior too.

DUNNING-KRUGER EFFECT: A cognitive bias whereby people of low mental or physical ability actually perceive themselves as excelling in those areas.  Columnist, George Will recently touched on this, concluding Trump suffers from a dangerous disability, not only because he’s ignorant, and ignorant of his ignorance, but because  he does not know what it is to know something.”  
      WOW !  You said that, George ?
  Another way to say it would be, a person who thinks they know everything but in fact don’t know what it is to know something. It’s a failure to recognize their own shortcomings, so they conclude they have none.  Unfortunately, in addition to being a narcissist, Trump falls into this category. Just because he has been successful in real estate and show business, he concludes he can be successful at anything.
      Voters in this category don’t feel they need to do any  research on qualifications or policies, they simply know how to vote, because they can’t make the wrong decision – too smart !
…………………………………………………………..

HEALTHCARE:  NOW THE HOUSE REPUBLICANS OWN IT !
NOTE:
This is just the beginning and information is still sketchy. One excellent source is the Henry J. Kaiser Foundation (www.kff.org)
      The House narrowly passed the American Health Care Act (AHCA) last week by a vote of 217 to 213. 
      The House failed twice to pass a similar version. The bill was rushed through without pursuing standard practices – discussions and cost and consequence scoring, by the CBO.

      It now goes to the Senate where it will encounter changes and possibly rejection. Senator Susan Collins, Maine, says there is no timeline for Senate consideration, only that she expects the Senate to take its time and do it right.
      AHCA is not the law of the land yet. All this negativity and uncertainty must make it next to impossible for Insurance companies to project risk and coverage.  That in itself stands to press ACA to the edge.      

       Republicans will now move on to tax deform where it will tip the scales further in favor of corporations and upper income persons.

THE RISK !     

      If successful, this administration’s late-stage stimulus will set the stage for a huge shortfall in US government receipts, resulting in the need to gut  dozens of government programs that address need and quality of life.
        For the most part Republicans, greedy bankers and financial institutions gave us the “Great Recession/Bear Market” 2007-2009.  The next one will be worse, because the government will lack the fiscal stimuli to pull the country out of its depressed state. 
       Can’t happen ?   Weren’t safeguards imposed through Dodd-Frank to prevent another meltdown ?
       Yes, however the House voted Thursday to roll back many of those measures, which they claim have slowed down economic growth. This is the same pattern of corporate “permissiveness” that set the stage for the 2007 – 2009 crash. ”Read “Too Big To Fail” by Sorkin, just don’t make it bedtime reading. 

………………………………………………………………………
PREUTERS WORLD NEWS APRIL 19, 4:20 PM
“A Russian government think tank controlled by Vladimir Putin developed a plan to swing the 2016 U.S. presidential election to Donald Trump and undermine voters’ faith in the American electoral system, three current and four former U.S. officials told Reuters.
      Russian documents appear to confirm what U.S. intelligence agencies have believed  all along that Russia influenced the outcome of our presidential election. 
      Yesterday, Reuters released documents, which were prepared by the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies[https://en.riss/], after the election that confirm this conclusion.
      It recommended that a, “propaganda campaign on social media and Russian backed global news outlets to encourage U.S. voters to elect a president who would take a softer line toward Russia than the administration of then-President Barach Obama, the seven officials said.”
     Additionally, a second institute document recommended Russia end its pro-Trump propaganda and intensify messaging about voter fraud to undermine the U.S. electoral system’s legitimacy and damage Clinton’s reputation.
      So far, investigations by U.S. institutions and Congress have not concluded collusion between Trump’s team and Russian operatives occurred.
     But U.S. investigations are still being conducted.
     I personally believe collusion DID take place, and odds are GOOD that it reaches far beyond collusion, that based on what I see and how people in the administration are acting.
……………………………………………………………….

TRUMP  – TOAST ?
      Just a hunch, but I think collusion regarding influencing the election is only part of something much bigger, like major league money transfers for options on oil investments, real estate holdings, and land deals. That’s why it is taking so much time.
      If we begin to see more and more of VP Pence, it may suggest the end for Trump is getting closer. Clearly, the inside knows something is about to break.  Trump is “toast,” IMVHO.
      There are so many people who know so much, and they are going to be watching out for number ONE, and that is not Donald Trump.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note:
Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
*CBS News
**Bloomberg: Noah Feldman (May 17, 2017)
*** New York Times: Charles Savage, (May 18, 2017)
**** Reuters
*****Stock Trader’s Almanac
……………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trump Budget – A Slap in Many Faces

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 21,012
S&P 500: 2,204
Nasdaq  Comp.:6,163
Russell 2000: 1,382
Thursday, May 25, 2017    9:08 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
.
      The stock market shot up yesterday afternoon in response to news that the Fed would not be raising its federal funds rate this month.
       However, the Fed did indicate a June 14 hike was likely if the economy continues to improve. That would be the fourth rate hike since December 2015, which was followed by hikes in December 2016 and March 2017.
      The Fed also noted it planned to begin unwinding its $4 trillion balance sheet this year, but wanted to raise rates a bit more before doing so.
       Fed Chief Janet Yellen acknowledged that economic growth continues sluggish along with wage growth, and millions of workers feel left out of the recovery, now nearly 8 years old.
      When will the government face the fact job loss is mostly due to automation, i.e. robots are manufacturing robots.  The easy entry jobs are gone, a computer does them, and it will get worse.
       Expect a follow through on the upside this morning with new highs posted in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp.
       This six-day surge after the sharp mid-May plunge indicates the Street’s algos are in full buy mode, though yesterday’s thrust was Fed related. Interest rates remain low giving investors little option but to buy stocks.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,959;S&P 500:2,399; Nasdaq Comp.:6,153
RESISTANCE “today” DJIA:21,097;S&P 500:2,417;Nasdaq Comp.:6,187

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
CORPORATE EARNINGS
(updated  May 19, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 13.9%. Q2 growth  is projected at +6.8%, Q3 at +7.5%, and Q4 at +12.4%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 9.9%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.3 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0.
Note: These numbers change frequently.
 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 5/15/17)
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  April 25, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,856 a more extreme risk is 20,703.Near-term upside potential is 21,333
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 
POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
      President Trumps budget is obviously DOA, with lots of blowback by Republicans looking to their prospects of re-election in 2018. The budget is a disgrace to who we are as Americans, as it skewers a portion of our society with little ability to defend itself, much less survive. It is who the Trump administration is, an administration run by billionaires with little regard for the interests of many of the people who mistakenly voted them into office.
      Some form of this budget will pass, and that’s going to widen the gap between the very well off and the poor, even what’s left of the middle class.  America’s strength lies in unity, this kind of heartless legislation does more damage than any foreign adversary.   
      WHAT IS THIS MAN HIDING ?
       Days after FBI director James Comey publicly confirmed the FBI was investigating collusion between Trump and associates and Russian operatives regarding the November election, Trump contacted two intelligence officials, Daniel Coats, director of National Intelligence and Adm. Michael Rogers, director of the National Security Agency, urging them to deny there was any such collusion. Both declined to comply.
      The issue here is not so much that Trump asked them to issue statements, but that he asked them to issue false statements.
      Why, unless there is something to hide regarding collusion, or a door that investigation may open to something else ?
………………………………………………………………………………..
       If President Trump fired FBI chief Comey, he can fire Mueller, and anyone who replaces him. He can sabotage the investigation in a number of ways, one of which comes out of the Code of Federal Regulations which restricts newly hired government lawyers from investigating prior law firm’s clients for one year after hiring. Mueller’s former law firm, Reportedly, Paul Manafort, Jared Kushner and his wife (Trump’s daughter) are all clients of Mueller’s former law firm, WilmerHale.****
       Reportedly, Kushner is the “person of interest”  in the investigation of ties between the Trump campaign and Russian operatives.
       This has to get very, very ugly, and that could seriously impact the Trump administration’s ability to deliver the massive stimulus (tax cuts, deregulation, and a big spend on the military and maybe the infrastructure.
…………………………………………………………………………………
IMPEACHMENT

      The U.S. Constitution  enables Congress to remove a president for “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.” Intitially, the House votes on one or more articles of impeachment- if a majority vote is reached, he is impeached.  BUT, impeachment only means indictment. The Senate holds a trial overseen by the chief justice and Supreme Court. A group of House members serve as prosecutors and the Senate as jurors. If two-thirds of the senators find the president guilty, he is removed from office and the vice president takes over.***
………………………………………………………………………………
PSYCHOLOGY 101 ?
     
The Trump presidency, has issued in a whole new set of psychological terms, none flattering to President Trump or the voters who put him in office.

CONFIRMATION BIAS:  the tendency to interpret, perceive, or recall information in a way that confirms one’s pre-existing  beliefs even when faced with irrefutable proof to the contrary.  Having a closed mind to one’s own peril would be another way of putting it. Is it sheer stupidity to vote against one’s best interests ?  Yes, but they do it all the time. Credit lack of information, or simply the inability to mentally and emotionally process information accurately and without bias.  
DEVIANCY DOWN:  A term originally used by the late Senator Patrick Moynihan to warn voters against accepting bad behavior, stupidity, demagoguery, lying, ignorance as the “norm.”
      Bloomberg’s Albert Hunt, wrote about it on May 14, referring to Trump critics being in awe when Trump gives a speech that is reasonably coherent or takes sensible action on something.  Suddenly  critics treat it as a momentous occasion, when in fact, it is what presidents are expected to do.
      Essentially, it is the dumbing down of a person’s behavior. This is partly responsible for Trump supporters and Republicans in Congress  accepting Trumps obnoxious behavior, uncharacteristic of past presidents.  In spite of all of Trump’s nonsensical bluster and tweets, even his critics are relieved when he has a moment of sanity, hopeful that a new Trump has emerged, one who acts presidential. Why is inferior behavior acceptable ? Don’t know, but my guess is people feel less inferior when a high level official like Trump acts inferior too.

DUNNING-KRUGER EFFECT: A cognitive bias whereby people of low mental or physical ability actually perceive themselves as excelling in those areas.  Columnist, George Will recently touched on this, concluding Trump suffers from a dangerous disability, not only because he’s ignorant, and ignorant of his ignorance, but because  he does not know what it is to know something.”  
      WOW !  You said that, George ?
  Another way to say it would be, a person who thinks they know everything but in fact don’t know what it is to know something. It’s a failure to recognize their own shortcomings, so they conclude they have none.  Unfortunately, in addition to being a narcissist, Trump falls into this category. Just because he has been successful in real estate and show business, he concludes he can be successful at anything.
      Voters in this category don’t feel they need to do any  research on qualifications or policies, they simply know how to vote, because they can’t make the wrong decision – too smart !
…………………………………………………………..

HEALTHCARE:  NOW THE HOUSE REPUBLICANS OWN IT !
NOTE:
This is just the beginning and information is still sketchy. One excellent source is the Henry J. Kaiser Foundation (www.kff.org)
      The House narrowly passed the American Health Care Act (AHCA) last week by a vote of 217 to 213. 
      The House failed twice to pass a similar version. The bill was rushed through without pursuing standard practices – discussions and cost and consequence scoring, by the CBO.

      It now goes to the Senate where it will encounter changes and possibly rejection. Senator Susan Collins, Maine, says there is no timeline for Senate consideration, only that she expects the Senate to take its time and do it right.
      AHCA is not the law of the land yet. All this negativity and uncertainty must make it next to impossible for Insurance companies to project risk and coverage.  That in itself stands to press ACA to the edge.      

       Republicans will now move on to tax deform where it will tip the scales further in favor of corporations and upper income persons.

THE RISK !     

      If successful, this administration’s late-stage stimulus will set the stage for a huge shortfall in US government receipts, resulting in the need to gut  dozens of government programs that address need and quality of life.
        For the most part Republicans, greedy bankers and financial institutions gave us the “Great Recession/Bear Market” 2007-2009.  The next one will be worse, because the government will lack the fiscal stimuli to pull the country out of its depressed state. 
       Can’t happen ?   Weren’t safeguards imposed through Dodd-Frank to prevent another meltdown ?
       Yes, however the House voted Thursday to roll back many of those measures, which they claim have slowed down economic growth. This is the same pattern of corporate “permissiveness” that set the stage for the 2007 – 2009 crash. ”Read “Too Big To Fail” by Sorkin, just don’t make it bedtime reading. 

………………………………………………………………………
PREUTERS WORLD NEWS APRIL 19, 4:20 PM
“A Russian government think tank controlled by Vladimir Putin developed a plan to swing the 2016 U.S. presidential election to Donald Trump and undermine voters’ faith in the American electoral system, three current and four former U.S. officials told Reuters.
      Russian documents appear to confirm what U.S. intelligence agencies have believed  all along that Russia influenced the outcome of our presidential election. 
      Yesterday, Reuters released documents, which were prepared by the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies[https://en.riss/], after the election that confirm this conclusion.
      It recommended that a, “propaganda campaign on social media and Russian backed global news outlets to encourage U.S. voters to elect a president who would take a softer line toward Russia than the administration of then-President Barach Obama, the seven officials said.”
     Additionally, a second institute document recommended Russia end its pro-Trump propaganda and intensify messaging about voter fraud to undermine the U.S. electoral system’s legitimacy and damage Clinton’s reputation.
      So far, investigations by U.S. institutions and Congress have not concluded collusion between Trump’s team and Russian operatives occurred.
     But U.S. investigations are still being conducted.
     I personally believe collusion DID take place, and odds are GOOD that it reaches far beyond collusion, that based on what I see and how people in the administration are acting.
……………………………………………………………….

TRUMP  – TOAST ?
      Just a hunch, but I think collusion regarding influencing the election is only part of something much bigger, like major league money transfers for options on oil investments, real estate holdings, and land deals. That’s why it is taking so much time.
      If we begin to see more and more of VP Pence, it may suggest the end for Trump is getting closer. Clearly, the inside knows something is about to break.  Trump is “toast,” IMVHO.
      There are so many people who know so much, and they are going to be watching out for number ONE, and that is not Donald Trump.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note:
Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
*CBS News
**Bloomberg: Noah Feldman (May 17, 2017)
*** New York Times: Charles Savage, (May 18, 2017)
**** Reuters
*****Stock Trader’s Almanac
……………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Where’s The BIG Spend ?

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 20,937
S&P 500: 2,398
Nasdaq  Comp.6,143:
Russell 2000: 1,380
Wednesday, May 24, 2017    9:08 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
.
      Where is the BIG spend on the military as promised in January ? What happened to infrastructure spending ?
      While the Trump budget released Tuesday, increases military spending by 10%, that is only 3% greater than President Obama’s projections for the coming fiscal year.
      Isn’t the Street betting on the BIG spend ?  Isn’t this one of the reasons for the post-election surge in the market ?

      What other disappointments await ?
      How about tax cuts ?
      Trump has promised to slash the corporate tax rate  to 15% – 20%  from 35%, but according to “The Earnings Scout,” corporate earnings trend analysts,  the average effective tax rate for the S&P 500 is 24.1%, suggesting the windfall in earnings expected by the Street won’t be dramatic.
      Corporate earnings are now increasing after a stall, but the S&P 500 trades at 17.4 x “forward” earnings, which is pricey given the fact the average P/E over ten years is 14.0 times.      
      So what’s left for the Street to hang its hat on ? 
      Deregulation ?  Even if Congress can deregulate key portions of Dodd-Frank and some energy regs., it will take time for the savings to trickle down to bottom lines.
       All this on top of serious allegations regarding collusion between members of the Trump campaign team and Russia  to skew the 2016 elections in favor of Trump. That stands to be a huge distraction for the administration and can delay  implementing its programs.
       Trump’s budget is a joke, DOA. Not even a Republican Congress, which for years has relished slashing social programs, will buy it, especially with the mid-term elections looming in 2018.
        A couple months ago, Trump’s massive stimulus looked like a sure thing, not so now.
       Does the Street stop buying ?  Sell ?
       So far, it is hanging tough. So far, just about all money under management has been in a buy mode based on expectations for a massive stimulus. If that mindset changes, it will change in unison, triggering a major correction of 9% – 14%.
       There is a chance, not great, that we will get one more spike to new highs in the DJIA and S&P 500 before a correction, one that gives the impression this eight-year bull market simply will never end !!!!
 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,915;S&P 500:2,395; Nasdaq Comp.:6,147
RESISTANCE “today” DJIA:21,003;S&P 500:2,405;Nasdaq Comp.:6,157

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
CORPORATE EARNINGS
(updated  May 19, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 13.9%. Q2 growth  is projected at +6.8%, Q3 at +7.5%, and Q4 at +12.4%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 9.9%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.3 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0.
Note: These numbers change frequently.
 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 5/15/17)
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  April 25, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,856 a more extreme risk is 20,703.Near-term upside potential is 21,333
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 
POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
 SPECIAL COUNSEL

      WHAT IS THIS MAN HIDING ?
       Days after FBI director James Comey publicly confirmed the FBI was investigating collusion between Trump and associates and Russian operatives regarding the November election, Trump contacted two intelligence officials, Daniel Coats, director of National Intelligence and Adm. Michael Rogers, director of the National Security Agency, urging them to deny there was any such collusion. Both declined to comply.
      The issue here is not so much that Trump asked them to issue statements, but that he asked them to issue false statements.
      Why, unless there is something to hide regarding collusion, or a door that investigation may open to something else ?
………………………………………………………………………………..
       If President Trump fired FBI chief Comey, he can fire Mueller, and anyone who replaces him. He can sabotage the investigation in a number of ways, one of which comes out of the Code of Federal Regulations which restricts newly hired government lawyers from investigating prior law firm’s clients for one year after hiring. Mueller’s former law firm, Reportedly, Paul Manafort, Jared Kushner and his wife (Trump’s daughter) are all clients of Mueller’s former law firm, WilmerHale.****
       Reportedly, Kushner is the “person of interest”  in the investigation of ties between the Trump campaign and Russian operatives.
       This has to get very, very ugly, and that could seriously impact the Trump administration’s ability to deliver the massive stimulus (tax cuts, deregulation, and a big spend on the military and maybe the infrastructure.
…………………………………………………………………………………
IMPEACHMENT

      The U.S. Constitution  enables Congress to remove a president for “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.” Intitially, the House votes on one or more articles of impeachment- if a majority vote is reached, he is impeached.  BUT, impeachment only means indictment. The Senate holds a trial overseen by the chief justice and Supreme Court. A group of House members serve as prosecutors and the Senate as jurors. If two-thirds of the senators find the president guilty, he is removed from office and the vice president takes over.***
………………………………………………………………………………
PSYCHOLOGY 101 ?
     
The Trump presidency, has issued in a whole new set of psychological terms, none flattering to President Trump or the voters who put him in office.

CONFIRMATION BIAS:  the tendency to interpret, perceive, or recall information in a way that confirms one’s pre-existing  beliefs even when faced with irrefutable proof to the contrary.  Having a closed mind to one’s own peril would be another way of putting it. Is it sheer stupidity to vote against one’s best interests ?  Yes, but they do it all the time. Credit lack of information, or simply the inability to mentally and emotionally process information accurately and without bias.  
DEVIANCY DOWN:  A term originally used by the late Senator Patrick Moynihan to warn voters against accepting bad behavior, stupidity, demagoguery, lying, ignorance as the “norm.”
      Bloomberg’s Albert Hunt, wrote about it on May 14, referring to Trump critics being in awe when Trump gives a speech that is reasonably coherent or takes sensible action on something.  Suddenly  critics treat it as a momentous occasion, when in fact, it is what presidents are expected to do.
      Essentially, it is the dumbing down of a person’s behavior. This is partly responsible for Trump supporters and Republicans in Congress  accepting Trumps obnoxious behavior, uncharacteristic of past presidents.  In spite of all of Trump’s nonsensical bluster and tweets, even his critics are relieved when he has a moment of sanity, hopeful that a new Trump has emerged, one who acts presidential. Why is inferior behavior acceptable ? Don’t know, but my guess is people feel less inferior when a high level official like Trump acts inferior too.

DUNNING-KRUGER EFFECT: A cognitive bias whereby people of low mental or physical ability actually perceive themselves as excelling in those areas.  Columnist, George Will recently touched on this, concluding Trump suffers from a dangerous disability, not only because he’s ignorant, and ignorant of his ignorance, but because  he does not know what it is to know something.”  
      WOW !  You said that, George ?
  Another way to say it would be, a person who thinks they know everything but in fact don’t know what it is to know something. It’s a failure to recognize their own shortcomings, so they conclude they have none.  Unfortunately, in addition to being a narcissist, Trump falls into this category. Just because he has been successful in real estate and show business, he concludes he can be successful at anything.
      Voters in this category don’t feel they need to do any  research on qualifications or policies, they simply know how to vote, because they can’t make the wrong decision – too smart !
…………………………………………………………..

HEALTHCARE:  NOW THE HOUSE REPUBLICANS OWN IT !
NOTE:
This is just the beginning and information is still sketchy. One excellent source is the Henry J. Kaiser Foundation (www.kff.org)
      The House narrowly passed the American Health Care Act (AHCA) last week by a vote of 217 to 213. 
      The House failed twice to pass a similar version. The bill was rushed through without pursuing standard practices – discussions and cost and consequence scoring, by the CBO.

      It now goes to the Senate where it will encounter changes and possibly rejection. Senator Susan Collins, Maine, says there is no timeline for Senate consideration, only that she expects the Senate to take its time and do it right.
      AHCA is not the law of the land yet. All this negativity and uncertainty must make it next to impossible for Insurance companies to project risk and coverage.  That in itself stands to press ACA to the edge.      

       Republicans will now move on to tax deform where it will tip the scales further in favor of corporations and upper income persons.

THE RISK !     

      If successful, this administration’s late-stage stimulus will set the stage for a huge shortfall in US government receipts, resulting in the need to gut  dozens of government programs that address need and quality of life.
        For the most part Republicans, greedy bankers and financial institutions gave us the “Great Recession/Bear Market” 2007-2009.  The next one will be worse, because the government will lack the fiscal stimuli to pull the country out of its depressed state. 
       Can’t happen ?   Weren’t safeguards imposed through Dodd-Frank to prevent another meltdown ?
       Yes, however the House voted Thursday to roll back many of those measures, which they claim have slowed down economic growth. This is the same pattern of corporate “permissiveness” that set the stage for the 2007 – 2009 crash. ”Read “Too Big To Fail” by Sorkin, just don’t make it bedtime reading. 

………………………………………………………………………
PREUTERS WORLD NEWS APRIL 19, 4:20 PM
“A Russian government think tank controlled by Vladimir Putin developed a plan to swing the 2016 U.S. presidential election to Donald Trump and undermine voters’ faith in the American electoral system, three current and four former U.S. officials told Reuters.
      Russian documents appear to confirm what U.S. intelligence agencies have believed  all along that Russia influenced the outcome of our presidential election. 
      Yesterday, Reuters released documents, which were prepared by the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies[https://en.riss/], after the election that confirm this conclusion.
      It recommended that a, “propaganda campaign on social media and Russian backed global news outlets to encourage U.S. voters to elect a president who would take a softer line toward Russia than the administration of then-President Barach Obama, the seven officials said.”
     Additionally, a second institute document recommended Russia end its pro-Trump propaganda and intensify messaging about voter fraud to undermine the U.S. electoral system’s legitimacy and damage Clinton’s reputation.
      So far, investigations by U.S. institutions and Congress have not concluded collusion between Trump’s team and Russian operatives occurred.
     But U.S. investigations are still being conducted.
     I personally believe collusion DID take place, and odds are GOOD that it reaches far beyond collusion, that based on what I see and how people in the administration are acting.
……………………………………………………………….

TRUMP  – TOAST ?
      Just a hunch, but I think collusion regarding influencing the election is only part of something much bigger, like major league money transfers for options on oil investments, real estate holdings, and land deals. That’s why it is taking so much time.
      If we begin to see more and more of VP Pence, it may suggest the end for Trump is getting closer. Clearly, the inside knows something is about to break.  Trump is “toast,” IMVHO.
      There are so many people who know so much, and they are going to be watching out for number ONE, and that is not Donald Trump.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note:
Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
*CBS News
**Bloomberg: Noah Feldman (May 17, 2017)
*** New York Times: Charles Savage, (May 18, 2017)
**** Reuters
*****Stock Trader’s Almanac
……………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 20,894
S&P 500: 2,394
Nasdaq  Comp.:6,133
Russell 2000: 1,377
Tuesday, May 23, 2017    9:08 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
     
 Today, the Trump administration will introduce its  budget, which will propose the deepest cuts to government programs ever. This will stir a lot of controversy, as passage of a budget even remotely less stringent  would vastly widen the current gap between poor and the well off.
      Details of the Trump tax cuts have not been released and Congressional action is not likely near-term. Trump has promised a slash in corporate taxes to 15% – 20% from 35%.
      However, proposed tax cuts would not have as great an impact on bottom lines as expected, since the average effective tax rate for the S&P companies is only 24.1%, according to “The Earnings Scout,” a provider of corporate earnings trend analysis and macroeconomic research. What’s more, none of the S&P’s 11 sectors averaged  a tax rate greater than 31.08%.
      Earnings Scout’s CEO, Nick Raich, believes deregulation would have a greater positive  impact on companies than tax cuts, since compliance is so costly.  Raich believes small company stocks  would be the biggest beneficiaries  of both tax cuts and deregulation, hmmmm.
TODAY
       The Street is still marching to the stimulus drumbeat, even in face of the mounting legal and ethics woes of the Trump administration.
        Recently,  I questioned whether the Street’s analysts would adjust their buy/sell algorithms to discount the risk that investigations into alleged  collusion between Trump’s associates and  Russian operatives would hobble the administration’s pursuit of its agenda. That is a key question for which we will get answers later in the year.
       Expect unprecedented stonewalling and tricky lawyering by  Trump’s associates present and past, as investigators begin to close in.
       I expect this to get ugly, but so far the Street doesn’t give a damn, and it won’t unless the prospects for the   stimulus (tax cuts, dereg. and the big spend) begin to fade.
       Let me remind you that May has often marked a temporary top in the market.  Studies have shown market strength between November and June, and general weakness between May and October.*****
TODAY
      Buying in the stock-index futures suggest a positive open, as the market averages advance into overhead supply. The Street’s reaction to Trump’s proposed budget cuts will be key. As long as none of the cuts affect the Street’s upper echelon, new highs are possible.  We need to look at the details and analysis.
      So far, little rattles the market, however, as I have said before, Watch your back. Almost everyone is bullish. If that suddenly changes, the market heads south.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,851;S&P 500:2,388; Nasdaq Comp.:6,128
RESISTANCE “today” DJIA:20,967;S&P 500:2,406;Nasdaq Comp.:6,156

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
CORPORATE EARNINGS
(updated  May 19, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 13.9%. Q2 growth  is projected at +6.8%, Q3 at +7.5%, and Q4 at +12.4%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 9.9%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.3 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0.
Note: These numbers change frequently.
 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 5/15/17)
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  April 25, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,856 a more extreme risk is 20,703.Near-term upside potential is 21,333
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 
POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
 SPECIAL COUNSEL

      WHAT IS THIS MAN HIDING ?
       Days after FBI director James Comey publicly confirmed the FBI was investigating collusion between Trump and associates and Russian operatives regarding the November election, Trump contacted two intelligence officials, Daniel Coats, director of National Intelligence and Adm. Michael Rogers, director of the National Security Agency, urging them to deny there was any such collusion. Both declined to comply.
      The issue here is not so much that Trump asked them to issue statements, but that he asked them to issue false statements.
      Why, unless there is something to hide regarding collusion, or a door that investigation may open to something else ?
………………………………………………………………………………..
      “Special counsel” is the formal name for “special prosecutor,” one in the same. Its mission is to gather all relevant information  and determine if a crime was committed. There is no guarantee its findings would be made public.*
         Special counselor, Robert Mueller is authorized to examine and prosecute any matters that arise or may arise directly from its investigation, the words, :any: and “all” are key in that they give Mueller very broad authority to take his investigation wherever he deems necessary. This would include collusion with  Russian operatives, as well as any attempt to cover it up.**
       If President Trump fired FBI chief Comey, he can fire Mueller, and anyone who replaces him. He can sabotage the investigation in a number of ways, one of which comes out of the Code of Federal Regulations which restricts newly hired government lawyers from investigating prior law firm’s clients for one year after hiring. Mueller’s former law firm, Reportedly, Paul Manafort, Jared Kushner and his wife (Trump’s daughter) are all clients of Mueller’s former law firm, WilmerHale.****
       Reportedly, Kushner is the “person of interest”  in the investigation of ties between the Trump campaign and Russian operatives.
       This has to get very, very ugly, and that could seriously impact the Trump administration’s ability to deliver the massive stimulus (tax cuts, deregulation, and a big spend on the military and maybe the infrastructure.
…………………………………………………………………………………
IMPEACHMENT

      The U.S. Constitution  enables Congress to remove a president for “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.” Intitially, the House votes on one or more articles of impeachment- if a majority vote is reached, he is impeached.  BUT, impeachment only means indictment. The Senate holds a trial overseen by the chief justice and Supreme Court. A group of House members serve as prosecutors and the Senate as jurors. If two-thirds of the senators find the president guilty, he is removed from office and the vice president takes over.***
………………………………………………………………………………
SMOKING GUN ?
      Reportedly, President Trump asked FBI director, James Comey,  to drop the ongoing investigation
of former national security adviser Michael Flynn. According to the New York Times,  Comey wrote a two-page memo covering that conversation with Trump at the White House in February. Trump’s urging falls under “improper efforts to influence an ongoing investigation.”
      This news comes a week after Trump fired Comey, and days after Trump indiscreetly shared classified information at the White House with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Ambassador Sergey Kislyak who were visiting at Trump’s request.  While not illegal, Trump’s action was widely criticized as potentially creating a hesitancy on the part of foreign countries to share intelligence of the United States.
……………………………………………………………………..
Monday, May 15,  Joe Scarborough (Morning Joe –  MSNBC) said he believes President Trump fired FBI director James Comey,  because Comey was getting close to exposing whatever criminal actions Trump has been trying to hide.
       That’s a strong allegation by Joe. What is new here is the word “criminal.” We have heard the word “collusion” a zillion times, but criminal takes this to a higher level, much higher.
       The whole issue of collusion would be hard to prove unless one of Trump’s  present or former team members (Manafort, Flynn, Sessions, Page, Stone) squeals.  Lower the boom on any of them, and anything is possible, including the end of the Trump fake presidency.
…………………………………………………………………………….
       On January 24, 2017, President Trump signed an executive order withdrawing the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations and opting out a  trade with countries which generated $27 trillion in trade in 2015.  On January 25, I questioned whether we were opening the door for China.
      Tuesday, May 16, thirty countries, including Russia, ended a meeting to promote Asian and European cooperation in a broad range of issues, including China’s “Belt and Road” project, designed to expand China’s global stature and trade in Asia, Africa and Europe by investing in ports, railways, and infrastructure  facilities, with the expenditure by China of $7 trillion over ten years.
       Indeed, Trump’s decision to focus on domestic issues and opt out of foreign affairs, one of which was TPP, has let China fill a huge void in trade and influence in the Pacific and Africa.
        This is the downside of having a blowhard, bumbling, narcissistic president.  Hopefully, we can survive him, as well as our extremist Congress, which is more dangerous now doing something, than it was doing nothing during President Obama’s eight years in office.  Pity !
……………………………………………………………..
PSYCHOLOGY 101 ?
     
The Trump presidency, has issued in a whole new set of psychological terms, none flattering to President Trump or the voters who put him in office.

CONFIRMATION BIAS:  the tendency to interpret, perceive, or recall information in a way that confirms one’s pre-existing  beliefs even when faced with irrefutable proof to the contrary.  Having a closed mind to one’s own peril would be another way of putting it. Is it sheer stupidity to vote against one’s best interests ?  Yes, but they do it all the time. Credit lack of information, or simply the inability to mentally and emotionally process information accurately and without bias.  
DEVIANCY DOWN:  A term originally used by the late Senator Patrick Moynihan to warn voters against accepting bad behavior, stupidity, demagoguery, lying, ignorance as the “norm.”
      Bloomberg’s Albert Hunt, wrote about it on May 14, referring to Trump critics being in awe when Trump gives a speech that is reasonably coherent or takes sensible action on something.  Suddenly  critics treat it as a momentous occasion, when in fact, it is what presidents are expected to do.
      Essentially, it is the dumbing down of a person’s behavior. This is partly responsible for Trump supporters and Republicans in Congress  accepting Trumps obnoxious behavior, uncharacteristic of past presidents.  In spite of all of Trump’s nonsensical bluster and tweets, even his critics are relieved when he has a moment of sanity, hopeful that a new Trump has emerged, one who acts presidential. Why is inferior behavior acceptable ? Don’t know, but my guess is people feel less inferior when a high level official like Trump acts inferior too.

DUNNING-KRUGER EFFECT: A cognitive bias whereby people of low mental or physical ability actually perceive themselves as excelling in those areas.  Columnist, George Will recently touched on this, concluding Trump suffers from a dangerous disability, not only because he’s ignorant, and ignorant of his ignorance, but because  he does not know what it is to know something.”  
      WOW !  You said that, George ?
  Another way to say it would be, a person who thinks they know everything but in fact don’t know what it is to know something. It’s a failure to recognize their own shortcomings, so they conclude they have none.  Unfortunately, in addition to being a narcissist, Trump falls into this category. Just because he has been successful in real estate and show business, he concludes he can be successful at anything.
      Voters in this category don’t feel they need to do any  research on qualifications or policies, they simply know how to vote, because they can’t make the wrong decision – too smart !
…………………………………………………………..

HEALTHCARE:  NOW THE HOUSE REPUBLICANS OWN IT !
NOTE:
This is just the beginning and information is still sketchy. One excellent source is the Henry J. Kaiser Foundation (www.kff.org)
      The House narrowly passed the American Health Care Act (AHCA) last week by a vote of 217 to 213. 
      The House failed twice to pass a similar version. The bill was rushed through without pursuing standard practices – discussions and cost and consequence scoring, by the CBO.

      It now goes to the Senate where it will encounter changes and possibly rejection. Senator Susan Collins, Maine, says there is no timeline for Senate consideration, only that she expects the Senate to take its time and do it right.
      AHCA is not the law of the land yet. All this negativity and uncertainty must make it next to impossible for Insurance companies to project risk and coverage.  That in itself stands to press ACA to the edge.      

       Republicans will now move on to tax deform where it will tip the scales further in favor of corporations and upper income persons.

THE RISK !     

      If successful, this administration’s late-stage stimulus will set the stage for a huge shortfall in US government receipts, resulting in the need to gut  dozens of government programs that address need and quality of life.
        For the most part Republicans, greedy bankers and financial institutions gave us the “Great Recession/Bear Market” 2007-2009.  The next one will be worse, because the government will lack the fiscal stimuli to pull the country out of its depressed state. 
       Can’t happen ?   Weren’t safeguards imposed through Dodd-Frank to prevent another meltdown ?
       Yes, however the House voted Thursday to roll back many of those measures, which they claim have slowed down economic growth. This is the same pattern of corporate “permissiveness” that set the stage for the 2007 – 2009 crash. ”Read “Too Big To Fail” by Sorkin, just don’t make it bedtime reading. 

………………………………………………………………………
STARVE the BEAST  !
     Trump’s plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% from 35% would trigger a $2.4 trillion shortfall in government revenues, forcing massive cuts to government programs, as well as increased taxes in other areas to offset the loss.   

     This is an opportunity of a lifetime for Republicans to fulfill their dream to devastate social programs across the board, i.e. slash government income and there is no alternative but to gut government programs. 
      It’s called “Starve The Beast,” and will result in a vast reduction in the quality of life of most Americans, especially those who put Trump in office.
      Congress will waste little time seizing an opportunity of their lifetime – to ruthlessly, senselessly and wantonly dismember a system that works well without the intrusion of Republicans.

……………………………………………………………………
I AM KEEPING THE FOLLOWING ALIVE BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN UPSTAGED BY TRUMP’S 100-DAY STAMPEDE TO  SAVE FACE.
………………………………………………………..

PREUTERS WORLD NEWS APRIL 19, 4:20 PM
“A Russian government think tank controlled by Vladimir Putin developed a plan to swing the 2016 U.S. presidential election to Donald Trump and undermine voters’ faith in the American electoral system, three current and four former U.S. officials told Reuters.
      Russian documents appear to confirm what U.S. intelligence agencies have believed  all along that Russia influenced the outcome of our presidential election. 
      Yesterday, Reuters released documents, which were prepared by the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies[https://en.riss/], after the election that confirm this conclusion.
      It recommended that a, “propaganda campaign on social media and Russian backed global news outlets to encourage U.S. voters to elect a president who would take a softer line toward Russia than the administration of then-President Barach Obama, the seven officials said.”
     Additionally, a second institute document recommended Russia end its pro-Trump propaganda and intensify messaging about voter fraud to undermine the U.S. electoral system’s legitimacy and damage Clinton’s reputation.
      So far, investigations by U.S. institutions and Congress have not concluded collusion between Trump’s team and Russian operatives occurred.
     But U.S. investigations are still being conducted.
     I personally believe collusion DID take place, and odds are GOOD that it reaches far beyond collusion, that based on what I see and how people in the administration are acting.
……………………………………………………………….

TRUMP  – TOAST ?
      Just a hunch, but I think collusion regarding influencing the election is only part of something much bigger, like major league money transfers for options on oil investments, real estate holdings, and land deals. That’s why it is taking so much time.
      If we begin to see more and more of VP Pence, it may suggest the end for Trump is getting closer. Clearly, the inside knows something is about to break.  Trump is “toast,” IMVHO.
      There are so many people who know so much, and they are going to be watching out for number ONE, and that is not Donald Trump.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  April 14, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 13.5%. Q2 growth  is projected at +7.2%, Q3 at +7.7%, and Q4 at +12.5%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 10.0%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.5 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0. Energy is the big contributor to Q1, S&P 500 growth.  While its percentage growth rate cannot be calculated since the sector was losing money a year ago it is in the black to the tune of $8.5 billion vs. a loss of $1.5 billion in Q1 2016. Materials:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 4/28/17)
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  April 25, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,763 a more extreme risk is 20,571.Near-term upside potential is 21,333
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ODDS FAVOR
1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.

Conclusion: It is happening now
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.

Conclusion: It started on Easter weekend in Berkeley.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
*CBS News
**Bloomberg: Noah Feldman (May 17, 2017)
*** New York Times: Charles Savage, (May 18, 2017)
**** Reuters
*****Stock Trader’s Almanac
……………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Decision Time for the Street

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 20,804
S&P 500: 2,381
Nasdaq  Comp.6,083:
Russell 2000: 1,367
Monday, May 22, 2017    9:08 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
     
Worth repeating again, as long as the Street expected a massive stimulus, including tax cuts, deregulation and a big spend on the military and possibly the infrastructure, it was a buyer on pullbacks.
      But, that may be changing. Analysts may be adjusting their algorithms to factor in the possibility that the massive stimulus may be delayed, may fall far short of expectations, or may not happen at all if the Trump administration implodes in scandal.
      That idea may stick in one’s craw, but confidence is a major determinant of the value investors are willing to place on the stock market. Currently, the S&P 500 is priced at 17.4 times “forward” earnings, well above the ten year average of 14.0.
       That spells risk, watch your back.
        Without the potential scandal, the stock market could  run higher.  Q1, S&P 500 earnings are tracking a 13.9% gain and the year as a whole looks like a plus 9.9%. Consumer spending is flat, but manufacturing moving ahead, probably in expectation of the big spend.
        This economic expansion is 96 months old versus an average length of 58.4 months over the last 11 cycles (1945-2009). It ranks second in length to the 1991-2001expansion of 120 months.
         If the Street continues in its automatic buy mode, this bull market will edge higher.  If the risk of scandal and a delay in the stimulus factored in, the prop in stocks caused by steady buying, as well as profit taking, will force a drop to a “comfort level,” which may be very painful.
          So many of the Street’s decisions today are corralled into algorithms designed to anticipate economic, fundamental, monetary and technical developments.  I cannot imagine that any have been programmed to anticipate what is happening in Washington, and that’s scary.
TODAY
         Any spike up here must hold – no room for a rally failure. Stocks are rebounding into an area of resistance, a level from which stocks plunged last week after FBI’s Comey was fired and a special counselor was appointed, signaling an escalation into the investigation of Trump and associates.
 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,726;S&P 500:2,376; Nasdaq Comp.:6,071
RESISTANCE “today” DJIA:20,867;S&P 500:2,391;Nasdaq Comp.:6,103

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
CORPORATE EARNINGS
(updated  May 19, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 13.9%. Q2 growth  is projected at +6.8%, Q3 at +7.5%, and Q4 at +12.4%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 9.9%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.3 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0.
Note: These numbers change frequently.
 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 5/15/17)
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  April 25, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,856 a more extreme risk is 20,703.Near-term upside potential is 21,333
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 
POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
 SPECIAL COUNSEL

      “Special counsel” is the formal name for “special prosecutor,” one in the same. Its mission is to gather all relevant information  and determine if a crime was committed. There is no guarantee its findings would be made public.*
         Special counselor, Robert Mueller is authorized to examine and prosecute any matters that arise or may arise directly from its investigation, the words, :any: and “all” are key in that they give Mueller very broad authority to take his investigation wherever he deems necessary. This would include collusion with  Russian operatives, as well as any attempt to cover it up.**
       If President Trump fired FBI chief Comey, he can fire Mueller, and anyone who replaces him. He can sabotage the investigation in a number of ways, one of which comes out of the Code of Federal Regulations which restricts newly hired government lawyers from investigating prior law firm’s clients for one year after hiring. Mueller’s former law firm, Reportedly, Paul Manafort, Jared Kushner and his wife (Trump’s daughter) are all clients of Mueller’s former law firm, WilmerHale.****
       Reportedly, Kushner is the “person of interest”  in the investigation of ties between the Trump campaign and Russian operatives.
       This has to get very, very ugly, and that could seriously impact the Trump administration’s ability to deliver the massive stimulus (tax cuts, deregulation, and a big spend on the military and maybe the infrastructure.
…………………………………………………………………………………
IMPEACHMENT

      The U.S. Constitution  enables Congress to remove a president for “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.” Intitially, the House votes on one or more articles of impeachment- if a majority vote is reached, he is impeached.  BUT, impeachment only means indictment. The Senate holds a trial overseen by the chief justice and Supreme Court. A group of House members serve as prosecutors and the Senate as jurors. If two-thirds of the senators find the president guilty, he is removed from office and the vice president takes over.***
………………………………………………………………………………
SMOKING GUN ?
      Reportedly, President Trump asked FBI director, James Comey,  to drop the ongoing investigation
of former national security adviser Michael Flynn. According to the New York Times,  Comey wrote a two-page memo covering that conversation with Trump at the White House in February. Trump’s urging falls under “improper efforts to influence an ongoing investigation.”
      This news comes a week after Trump fired Comey, and days after Trump indiscreetly shared classified information at the White House with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Ambassador Sergey Kislyak who were visiting at Trump’s request.  While not illegal, Trump’s action was widely criticized as potentially creating a hesitancy on the part of foreign countries to share intelligence of the United States.
……………………………………………………………………..
Monday, May 15,  Joe Scarborough (Morning Joe –  MSNBC) said he believes President Trump fired FBI director James Comey,  because Comey was getting close to exposing whatever criminal actions Trump has been trying to hide.
       That’s a strong allegation by Joe. What is new here is the word “criminal.” We have heard the word “collusion” a zillion times, but criminal takes this to a higher level, much higher.
       The whole issue of collusion would be hard to prove unless one of Trump’s  present or former team members (Manafort, Flynn, Sessions, Page, Stone) squeals.  Lower the boom on any of them, and anything is possible, including the end of the Trump fake presidency.
…………………………………………………………………………….
       On January 24, 2017, President Trump signed an executive order withdrawing the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations and opting out a  trade with countries which generated $27 trillion in trade in 2015.  On January 25, I questioned whether we were opening the door for China.
      Tuesday, May 16, thirty countries, including Russia, ended a meeting to promote Asian and European cooperation in a broad range of issues, including China’s “Belt and Road” project, designed to expand China’s global stature and trade in Asia, Africa and Europe by investing in ports, railways, and infrastructure  facilities, with the expenditure by China of $7 trillion over ten years.
       Indeed, Trump’s decision to focus on domestic issues and opt out of foreign affairs, one of which was TPP, has let China fill a huge void in trade and influence in the Pacific and Africa.
        This is the downside of having a blowhard, bumbling, narcissistic president.  Hopefully, we can survive him, as well as our extremist Congress, which is more dangerous now doing something, than it was doing nothing during President Obama’s eight years in office.  Pity !
……………………………………………………………..
PSYCHOLOGY 101 ?
     
The Trump presidency, has issued in a whole new set of psychological terms, none flattering to President Trump or the voters who put him in office.

CONFIRMATION BIAS:  the tendency to interpret, perceive, or recall information in a way that confirms one’s pre-existing  beliefs even when faced with irrefutable proof to the contrary.  Having a closed mind to one’s own peril would be another way of putting it. Is it sheer stupidity to vote against one’s best interests ?  Yes, but they do it all the time. Credit lack of information, or simply the inability to mentally and emotionally process information accurately and without bias.  
DEVIANCY DOWN:  A term originally used by the late Senator Patrick Moynihan to warn voters against accepting bad behavior, stupidity, demagoguery, lying, ignorance as the “norm.”
      Bloomberg’s Albert Hunt, wrote about it on May 14, referring to Trump critics being in awe when Trump gives a speech that is reasonably coherent or takes sensible action on something.  Suddenly  critics treat it as a momentous occasion, when in fact, it is what presidents are expected to do.
      Essentially, it is the dumbing down of a person’s behavior. This is partly responsible for Trump supporters and Republicans in Congress  accepting Trumps obnoxious behavior, uncharacteristic of past presidents.  In spite of all of Trump’s nonsensical bluster and tweets, even his critics are relieved when he has a moment of sanity, hopeful that a new Trump has emerged, one who acts presidential. Why is inferior behavior acceptable ? Don’t know, but my guess is people feel less inferior when a high level official like Trump acts inferior too.

DUNNING-KRUGER EFFECT: A cognitive bias whereby people of low mental or physical ability actually perceive themselves as excelling in those areas.  Columnist, George Will recently touched on this, concluding Trump suffers from a dangerous disability, not only because he’s ignorant, and ignorant of his ignorance, but because  he does not know what it is to know something.”  
      WOW !  You said that, George ?
  Another way to say it would be, a person who thinks they know everything but in fact don’t know what it is to know something. It’s a failure to recognize their own shortcomings, so they conclude they have none.  Unfortunately, in addition to being a narcissist, Trump falls into this category. Just because he has been successful in real estate and show business, he concludes he can be successful at anything.
      Voters in this category don’t feel they need to do any  research on qualifications or policies, they simply know how to vote, because they can’t make the wrong decision – too smart !
…………………………………………………………..

HEALTHCARE:  NOW THE HOUSE REPUBLICANS OWN IT !
NOTE:
This is just the beginning and information is still sketchy. One excellent source is the Henry J. Kaiser Foundation (www.kff.org)
      The House narrowly passed the American Health Care Act (AHCA) last week by a vote of 217 to 213. 
      The House failed twice to pass a similar version. The bill was rushed through without pursuing standard practices – discussions and cost and consequence scoring, by the CBO.

      It now goes to the Senate where it will encounter changes and possibly rejection. Senator Susan Collins, Maine, says there is no timeline for Senate consideration, only that she expects the Senate to take its time and do it right.
      AHCA is not the law of the land yet. All this negativity and uncertainty must make it next to impossible for Insurance companies to project risk and coverage.  That in itself stands to press ACA to the edge.      

       Republicans will now move on to tax deform where it will tip the scales further in favor of corporations and upper income persons.

THE RISK !      

      If successful, this administration’s late-stage stimulus will set the stage for a huge shortfall in US government receipts, resulting in the need to gut  dozens of government programs that address need and quality of life.
        For the most part Republicans, greedy bankers and financial institutions gave us the “Great Recession/Bear Market” 2007-2009.  The next one will be worse, because the government will lack the fiscal stimuli to pull the country out of its depressed state. 
       Can’t happen ?   Weren’t safeguards imposed through Dodd-Frank to prevent another meltdown ?
       Yes, however the House voted Thursday to roll back many of those measures, which they claim have slowed down economic growth. This is the same pattern of corporate “permissiveness” that set the stage for the 2007 – 2009 crash. ”Read “Too Big To Fail” by Sorkin, just don’t make it bedtime reading. 

………………………………………………………………………
STARVE the BEAST  !
     Trump’s plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% from 35% would trigger a $2.4 trillion shortfall in government revenues, forcing massive cuts to government programs, as well as increased taxes in other areas to offset the loss.   

     This is an opportunity of a lifetime for Republicans to fulfill their dream to devastate social programs across the board, i.e. slash government income and there is no alternative but to gut government programs. 
      It’s called “Starve The Beast,” and will result in a vast reduction in the quality of life of most Americans, especially those who put Trump in office.
      Congress will waste little time seizing an opportunity of their lifetime – to ruthlessly, senselessly and wantonly dismember a system that works well without the intrusion of Republicans.

……………………………………………………………………
I AM KEEPING THE FOLLOWING ALIVE BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN UPSTAGED BY TRUMP’S 100-DAY STAMPEDE TO  SAVE FACE.
………………………………………………………..

PREUTERS WORLD NEWS APRIL 19, 4:20 PM
“A Russian government think tank controlled by Vladimir Putin developed a plan to swing the 2016 U.S. presidential election to Donald Trump and undermine voters’ faith in the American electoral system, three current and four former U.S. officials told Reuters.
      Russian documents appear to confirm what U.S. intelligence agencies have believed  all along that Russia influenced the outcome of our presidential election. 
      Yesterday, Reuters released documents, which were prepared by the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies[https://en.riss/], after the election that confirm this conclusion.
      It recommended that a, “propaganda campaign on social media and Russian backed global news outlets to encourage U.S. voters to elect a president who would take a softer line toward Russia than the administration of then-President Barach Obama, the seven officials said.”
     Additionally, a second institute document recommended Russia end its pro-Trump propaganda and intensify messaging about voter fraud to undermine the U.S. electoral system’s legitimacy and damage Clinton’s reputation.
      So far, investigations by U.S. institutions and Congress have not concluded collusion between Trump’s team and Russian operatives occurred.
     But U.S. investigations are still being conducted.
     I personally believe collusion DID take place, and odds are GOOD that it reaches far beyond collusion, that based on what I see and how people in the administration are acting.
……………………………………………………………….

TRUMP  – TOAST ?
      Just a hunch, but I think collusion regarding influencing the election is only part of something much bigger, like major league money transfers for options on oil investments, real estate holdings, and land deals. That’s why it is taking so much time.
      If we begin to see more and more of VP Pence, it may suggest the end for Trump is getting closer. Clearly, the inside knows something is about to break.  Trump is “toast,” IMVHO.
      There are so many people who know so much, and they are going to be watching out for number ONE, and that is not Donald Trump.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  April 14, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 13.5%. Q2 growth  is projected at +7.2%, Q3 at +7.7%, and Q4 at +12.5%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 10.0%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.5 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0. Energy is the big contributor to Q1, S&P 500 growth.  While its percentage growth rate cannot be calculated since the sector was losing money a year ago it is in the black to the tune of $8.5 billion vs. a loss of $1.5 billion in Q1 2016. Materials:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 4/28/17)
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  April 25, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,763 a more extreme risk is 20,571.Near-term upside potential is 21,333
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ODDS FAVOR
1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.

Conclusion: It is happening now
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.

Conclusion: It started on Easter weekend in Berkeley.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
*CBS News
**Bloomberg: Noah Feldman (May 17, 2017)
*** New York Times: Charles Savage, (May 18, 2017)
**** Reuters

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Is Street Rewriting Bullish Algos ?

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 20,663
S&P 500: 2,365
Nasdaq  Comp.:6,055
Russell 2000: 1,361
Friday, May 19, 2017    8:55 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

        After six months of persistent bullishness, the Street began to have doubts Wednesday, that Trump’s promised stimulus would happen anytime soon, or at all, given  multiple investigations into his activities before and after the November 8, election.

       The market sold off sharply Wednesday as special counselor, Robert Mueller, was picked to head up the investigations in face of  a series of incidents, including the Clapper/Yates testimony, Trump’s indiscreet sharing of Israeli intelligence with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Ambassador Sergey Kislak, and his firing of FBI chief, James Comey.
       Can the 204% Obama bull market continue under the Trump administration ?   That depends on whether the Trump massive stimulus is realized.  If the Street’s analysts rewrite their algorithms (algos) from “buy on dips” to proceed more cautiously, worse yet to sell on strength, the party will soon be over, and the prospect of a recession increased.
TODAY

      The Street is shell-shocked, the individual investor just starting to pay attention.   Enjoy a nice weekend, take a break from the news. 
      Well, with Trump travelling abroad, maybe that’s not a good suggestion.
      A rally attempt today should struggle in the afternoon, as investors get anxious about what bizarre news, or tweets, will hit the headlines next.     

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,503;S&P 500:2,346; Nasdaq Comp.:6,001
RESISTANCE “today” DJIA:20,736 ;S&P 500:2,374;Nasdaq Comp.:6,067

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
CORPORATE EARNINGS
(updated  May 15, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 13.6%. Q2 growth  is projected at +6.8%, Q3 at +7.5%, and Q4 at +12.4%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 9.9%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.5 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0.
Note: These numbers change frequently.
 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 5/15/17)
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  April 25, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,856 a more extreme risk is 20,703.Near-term upside potential is 21,333
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 
POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
 SPECIAL COUNSEL

      “Special counsel” is the formal name for “special prosecutor,” one in the same. Its mission is to gather all information relevant  and determine if a crime was committed. There is no guarantee its findings would be made public.*
         Special counselor, Robert Mueller is authorized to examine and prosecute any matters that arise or may arise directly from its investigation. the words, :any: and “all” are key in that they give Mueller very broad authority to take his investigation wherever he deems necessary. This would include collusion with  Russian operatives, as well as any attempt to cover it up.**

IMPEACHMENT
      The U.S. Constitution  enables Congress to remove a president for “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.” Intitially, the House votes on one or more articles of impeachment- if a majority vote is reached, he is impeached.  BUT, impeachment only means indictment. The Senate holds a trial overseen by the chief justice and Supreme Court. A group of House members serve as prosecutors and the Senate as jurors. If two-thirds of the senators find the president guilty, he is removed from office and the vice president takes over.***
SMOKING GUN ?
      Reportedly, President Trump asked FBI director, James Comey,  to drop the ongoing investigation
of former national security adviser Michael Flynn. According to the New York Times,  Comey wrote a two-page memo covering that conversation with Trump at the White House in February. Trump’s urging falls under “improper efforts to influence an ongoing investigation.”
      This news comes a week after Trump fired Comey, and days after Trump indiscreetly shared classified information at the White House with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Ambassador Sergey Kislyak who were visiting at Trump’s request.  While not illegal, Trump’s action was widely criticized as potentially creating a hesitancy on the part of foreign countries to share intelligence of the United States.
……………………………………………………………………..
Monday, May 15,  Joe Scarborough (Morning Joe –  MSNBC) said he believes President Trump fired FBI director James Comey,  because Comey was getting close to exposing whatever criminal actions Trump has been trying to hide.
       That’s a strong allegation by Joe. What is new here is the word “criminal.” We have heard the word “collusion” a zillion times, but criminal takes this to a higher level, much higher.
       The whole issue of collusion would be hard to prove unless one of Trump’s  present or former team members (Manafort, Flynn, Sessions, Page, Stone) squeals.  Lower the boom on any of them, and anything is possible, including the end of the Trump fake presidency.
…………………………………………………………………………….
       On January 24, 2017, President Trump signed an executive order withdrawing the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations and opting out a  trade with countries which generated $27 trillion in trade in 2015.  On January 25, I questioned whether we were opening the door for China.
      Tuesday, May 16, thirty countries, including Russia, ended a meeting to promote Asian and European cooperation in a broad range of issues, including China’s “Belt and Road” project, designed to expand China’s global stature and trade in Asia, Africa and Europe by investing in ports, railways, and infrastructure  facilities, with the expenditure by China of $7 trillion over ten years.
       Indeed, Trump’s decision to focus on domestic issues and opt out of foreign affairs, one of which was TPP, has let China fill a huge void in trade and influence in the Pacific and Africa.
        This is the downside of having a blowhard, bumbling, narcissistic president.  Hopefully, we can survive him, as well as our extremist Congress, which is more dangerous now doing something, than it was doing nothing during President Obama’s eight years in office.  Pity !
……………………………………………………………..
PSYCHOLOGY 101 ?
     
The Trump presidency, has issued in a whole new set of psychological terms, none flattering to President Trump or the voters who put him in office.

CONFIRMATION BIAS:  the tendency to interpret, perceive, or recall information in a way that confirms one’s pre-existing  beliefs even when faced with irrefutable proof to the contrary.  Having a closed mind to one’s own peril would be another way of putting it. Is it sheer stupidity to vote against one’s best interests ?  Yes, but they do it all the time. Credit lack of information, or simply the inability to mentally and emotionally process information accurately and without bias.  
DEVIANCY DOWN:  A term originally used by the late Senator Patrick Moynihan to warn voters against accepting bad behavior, stupidity, demagoguery, lying, ignorance as the “norm.”
      Bloomberg’s Albert Hunt, wrote about it on May 14, referring to Trump critics being in awe when Trump gives a speech that is reasonably coherent or takes sensible action on something.  Suddenly  critics treat it as a momentous occasion, when in fact, it is what presidents are expected to do.
      Essentially, it is the dumbing down of a person’s behavior. This is partly responsible for Trump supporters and Republicans in Congress  accepting Trumps obnoxious behavior, uncharacteristic of past presidents.  In spite of all of Trump’s nonsensical bluster and tweets, even his critics are relieved when he has a moment of sanity, hopeful that a new Trump has emerged, one who acts presidential. Why is inferior behavior acceptable ? Don’t know, but my guess is people feel less inferior when a high level official like Trump acts inferior too.

DUNNING-KRUGER EFFECT: A cognitive bias whereby people of low mental or physical ability actually perceive themselves as excelling in those areas.  Columnist, George Will recently touched on this, concluding Trump suffers from a dangerous disability, not only because he’s ignorant, and ignorant of his ignorance, but because  he does not know what it is to know something.”  
      WOW !  You said that, George ?
  Another way to say it would be, a person who thinks they know everything but in fact don’t know what it is to know something. It’s a failure to recognize their own shortcomings, so they conclude they have none.  Unfortunately, in addition to being a narcissist, Trump falls into this category. Just because he has been successful in real estate and show business, he concludes he can be successful at anything.
      Voters in this category don’t feel they need to do any  research on qualifications or policies, they simply know how to vote, because they can’t make the wrong decision – too smart !
…………………………………………………………..

HEALTHCARE:  NOW THE HOUSE REPUBLICANS OWN IT !
NOTE:
This is just the beginning and information is still sketchy. One excellent source is the Henry J. Kaiser Foundation (www.kff.org)
      The House narrowly passed the American Health Care Act (AHCA) last week by a vote of 217 to 213. 
      The House failed twice to pass a similar version. The bill was rushed through without pursuing standard practices – discussions and cost and consequence scoring, by the CBO.

      It now goes to the Senate where it will encounter changes and possibly rejection. Senator Susan Collins, Maine, says there is no timeline for Senate consideration, only that she expects the Senate to take its time and do it right.
      AHCA is not the law of the land yet. All this negativity and uncertainty must make it next to impossible for Insurance companies to project risk and coverage.  That in itself stands to press ACA to the edge.      

       Republicans will now move on to tax deform where it will tip the scales further in favor of corporations and upper income persons.

THE RISK !     

      If successful, this administration’s late-stage stimulus will set the stage for a huge shortfall in US government receipts, resulting in the need to gut  dozens of government programs that address need and quality of life.
        For the most part Republicans, greedy bankers and financial institutions gave us the “Great Recession/Bear Market” 2007-2009.  The next one will be worse, because the government will lack the fiscal stimuli to pull the country out of its depressed state. 
       Can’t happen ?   Weren’t safeguards imposed through Dodd-Frank to prevent another meltdown ?
       Yes, however the House voted Thursday to roll back many of those measures, which they claim have slowed down economic growth. This is the same pattern of corporate “permissiveness” that set the stage for the 2007 – 2009 crash. ”Read “Too Big To Fail” by Sorkin, just don’t make it bedtime reading. 

………………………………………………………………………
STARVE the BEAST  !
     Trump’s plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% from 35% would trigger a $2.4 trillion shortfall in government revenues, forcing massive cuts to government programs, as well as increased taxes in other areas to offset the loss.   

     This is an opportunity of a lifetime for Republicans to fulfill their dream to devastate social programs across the board, i.e. slash government income and there is no alternative but to gut government programs. 
      It’s called “Starve The Beast,” and will result in a vast reduction in the quality of life of most Americans, especially those who put Trump in office.
      Congress will waste little time seizing an opportunity of their lifetime – to ruthlessly, senselessly and wantonly dismember a system that works well without the intrusion of Republicans.

……………………………………………………………………
I AM KEEPING THE FOLLOWING ALIVE BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN UPSTAGED BY TRUMP’S 100-DAY STAMPEDE TO  SAVE FACE.
………………………………………………………..

PREUTERS WORLD NEWS APRIL 19, 4:20 PM
“A Russian government think tank controlled by Vladimir Putin developed a plan to swing the 2016 U.S. presidential election to Donald Trump and undermine voters’ faith in the American electoral system, three current and four former U.S. officials told Reuters.
      Russian documents appear to confirm what U.S. intelligence agencies have believed  all along that Russia influenced the outcome of our presidential election. 
      Yesterday, Reuters released documents, which were prepared by the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies[https://en.riss/], after the election that confirm this conclusion.
      It recommended that a, “propaganda campaign on social media and Russian backed global news outlets to encourage U.S. voters to elect a president who would take a softer line toward Russia than the administration of then-President Barach Obama, the seven officials said.”
     Additionally, a second institute document recommended Russia end its pro-Trump propaganda and intensify messaging about voter fraud to undermine the U.S. electoral system’s legitimacy and damage Clinton’s reputation.
      So far, investigations by U.S. institutions and Congress have not concluded collusion between Trump’s team and Russian operatives occurred.
     But U.S. investigations are still being conducted.
     I personally believe collusion DID take place, and odds are GOOD that it reaches far beyond collusion, that based on what I see and how people in the administration are acting.
……………………………………………………………….

TRUMP  – TOAST ?
      Just a hunch, but I think collusion regarding influencing the election is only part of something much bigger, like major league money transfers for options on oil investments, real estate holdings, and land deals. That’s why it is taking so much time.
      If we begin to see more and more of VP Pence, it may suggest the end for Trump is getting closer. Clearly, the inside knows something is about to break.  Trump is “toast,” IMVHO.
      There are so many people who know so much, and they are going to be watching out for number ONE, and that is not Donald Trump.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  April 14, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 13.5%. Q2 growth  is projected at +7.2%, Q3 at +7.7%, and Q4 at +12.5%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 10.0%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.5 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0. Energy is the big contributor to Q1, S&P 500 growth.  While its percentage growth rate cannot be calculated since the sector was losing money a year ago it is in the black to the tune of $8.5 billion vs. a loss of $1.5 billion in Q1 2016. Materials:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 4/28/17)
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  April 25, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,763 a more extreme risk is 20,571.Near-term upside potential is 21,333
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ODDS FAVOR
1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.

Conclusion: It is happening now
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.

Conclusion: It started on Easter weekend in Berkeley.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
*CBS News
**Bloomberg: Noah Feldman (May 17, 2017)
*** New York Times: Charles Savage, (May 18, 2017)

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bull Depends on Hopes for Stimulus

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open
DJIA:20,606
S&P 500: 2,357
Nasdaq  Comp.:6.011
Russell 2000: 1,355
Thursday, May 18, 2017    9:08 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

        Until yesterday the Street had been a buyer of stocks since November 9 in expectation of President Trump’s promise of a big stimulus, including massive tax cuts for corporations and some individuals, deregulation, and a big spend on the military and our aging infrastructure.
        For months, I have told readers that the Street continue to be buyers, as long as the promise of this massive stimulus was expected to happen.
        After countless blunders and unthinkable behavior by President Trump, including the firing of FBI director James Comey, a smoking gun in the form of Trump’s alleged attempt to obstruct justice by trying to coerce Comey to drop the Russia investigation, the Street began to have doubts that all the goodies Trump promised may be delayed or not happen at all. The appointment of a Special counselor compounded its angst.
        The key to the bull market is whether  SOMETHING HAPPEN TO REVIVE THE STREET’S HOPE FOR THE BIG STIMULUS ?
         Since November 8, nearly all the Street’s algos have been programmed to buy on dips, which prevented meaningful corrections on eight occasions.  
        If the algos still say “buy,” we will get a sharp rebound.  If  human brains take over the decision process, fully aware President Trump may beon his way out along with a lot of his promises, the market is heading south.
        The risk here is if all that programmed “think alike” money heads for the exit at the same time, it will be straight down, triggering one NYSE circuit breaker after another.
     As I emphasized yesterday, the Street’s computer algos couldn’t have been programmed to anticipate Trump’s  bizarre and outright scary behavior, and events that beg answers.
TODAY
      The DJIA and S&P 500 should try to hold above April’s lows of DJIA 20,379 (S&P 500: 2,322). A spike down at the open to DJIA 20,487 (S&P 500: 2,343) should be followed by a rally which will run into resistance (see below).


 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,487;S&P 500:2,343; Nasdaq Comp.:5,959
RESISTANCE “today” DJIA:20,679 ;S&P 500:2,367;Nasdaq Comp.:6,036

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
CORPORATE EARNINGS
(updated  May 15, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 13.6%. Q2 growth  is projected at +6.8%, Q3 at +7.5%, and Q4 at +12.4%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 9.9%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.5 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0.
Note: These numbers change frequently.
 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 5/15/17)
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  April 25, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,856 a more extreme risk is 20,703.Near-term upside potential is 21,333
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 
POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
 SPECIAL COUNSEL

      “Special counsel” is the formal name for “special prosecutor,” one in the same. Its mission is to gather all information relevant  and determine if a crime was committed. There is no guarantee its findings would be made public.*
         Special counselor, Robert Mueller is authorized to examine and prosecute any matters that arise or may arise directly from its investigation. the words, :any: and “all” are key in that they give Mueller very broad authority to take his investigation wherever he deems necessary. This would include collusion with  Russian operatives, as well as any attempt to cover it up.**

IMPEACHMENT
      The U.S. Constitution  enables Congress to remove a president for “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.” Intitially, the House votes on one or more articles of impeachment- if a majority vote is reached, he is impeached.  BUT, impeachment only means indictment. The Senate holds a trial overseen by the chief justice and Supreme Court. A group of House members serve as prosecutors and the Senate as jurors. If two-thirds of the senators find the president guilty, he is removed from office and the vice president takes over.***
SMOKING GUN ?
      Reportedly, President Trump asked FBI director, James Comey,  to drop the ongoing investigation
of former national security adviser Michael Flynn. According to the New York Times,  Comey wrote a two-page memo covering that conversation with Trump at the White House in February. Trump’s urging falls under “improper efforts to influence an ongoing investigation.”
      This news comes a week after Trump fired Comey, and days after Trump indiscreetly shared classified information at the White House with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Ambassador Sergey Kislyak who were visiting at Trump’s request.  While not illegal, Trump’s action was widely criticized as potentially creating a hesitancy on the part of foreign countries to share intelligence of the United States.
……………………………………………………………………..
Monday, May 15,  Joe Scarborough (Morning Joe –  MSNBC) said he believes President Trump fired FBI director James Comey,  because Comey was getting close to exposing whatever criminal actions Trump has been trying to hide.
       That’s a strong allegation by Joe. What is new here is the word “criminal.” We have heard the word “collusion” a zillion times, but criminal takes this to a higher level, much higher.
       The whole issue of collusion would be hard to prove unless one of Trump’s  present or former team members (Manafort, Flynn, Sessions, Page, Stone) squeals.  Lower the boom on any of them, and anything is possible, including the end of the Trump fake presidency.
…………………………………………………………………………….
       On January 24, 2017, President Trump signed an executive order withdrawing the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations and opting out a  trade with countries which generated $27 trillion in trade in 2015.  On January 25, I questioned whether we were opening the door for China.
      Tuesday, May 16, thirty countries, including Russia, ended a meeting to promote Asian and European cooperation in a broad range of issues, including China’s “Belt and Road” project, designed to expand China’s global stature and trade in Asia, Africa and Europe by investing in ports, railways, and infrastructure  facilities, with the expenditure by China of $7 trillion over ten years.
       Indeed, Trump’s decision to focus on domestic issues and opt out of foreign affairs, one of which was TPP, has let China fill a huge void in trade and influence in the Pacific and Africa.
        This is the downside of having a blowhard, bumbling, narcissistic president.  Hopefully, we can survive him, as well as our extremist Congress, which is more dangerous now doing something, than it was doing nothing during President Obama’s eight years in office.  Pity !
……………………………………………………………..
PSYCHOLOGY 101 ?
     
The Trump presidency, has issued in a whole new set of psychological terms, none flattering to President Trump or the voters who put him in office.

CONFIRMATION BIAS:  the tendency to interpret, perceive, or recall information in a way that confirms one’s pre-existing  beliefs even when faced with irrefutable proof to the contrary.  Having a closed mind to one’s own peril would be another way of putting it. Is it sheer stupidity to vote against one’s best interests ?  Yes, but they do it all the time. Credit lack of information, or simply the inability to mentally and emotionally process information accurately and without bias.  
DEVIANCY DOWN:  A term originally used by the late Senator Patrick Moynihan to warn voters against accepting bad behavior, stupidity, demagoguery, lying, ignorance as the “norm.”
      Bloomberg’s Albert Hunt, wrote about it on May 14, referring to Trump critics being in awe when Trump gives a speech that is reasonably coherent or takes sensible action on something.  Suddenly  critics treat it as a momentous occasion, when in fact, it is what presidents are expected to do.
      Essentially, it is the dumbing down of a person’s behavior. This is partly responsible for Trump supporters and Republicans in Congress  accepting Trumps obnoxious behavior, uncharacteristic of past presidents.  In spite of all of Trump’s nonsensical bluster and tweets, even his critics are relieved when he has a moment of sanity, hopeful that a new Trump has emerged, one who acts presidential. Why is inferior behavior acceptable ? Don’t know, but my guess is people feel less inferior when a high level official like Trump acts inferior too.

DUNNING-KRUGER EFFECT: A cognitive bias whereby people of low mental or physical ability actually perceive themselves as excelling in those areas.  Columnist, George Will recently touched on this, concluding Trump suffers from a dangerous disability, not only because he’s ignorant, and ignorant of his ignorance, but because  he does not know what it is to know something.”  
      WOW !  You said that, George ?
  Another way to say it would be, a person who thinks they know everything but in fact don’t know what it is to know something. It’s a failure to recognize their own shortcomings, so they conclude they have none.  Unfortunately, in addition to being a narcissist, Trump falls into this category. Just because he has been successful in real estate and show business, he concludes he can be successful at anything.
      Voters in this category don’t feel they need to do any  research on qualifications or policies, they simply know how to vote, because they can’t make the wrong decision – too smart !
…………………………………………………………..

HEALTHCARE:  NOW THE HOUSE REPUBLICANS OWN IT !
NOTE:
This is just the beginning and information is still sketchy. One excellent source is the Henry J. Kaiser Foundation (www.kff.org)
      The House narrowly passed the American Health Care Act (AHCA) last week by a vote of 217 to 213. 
      The House failed twice to pass a similar version. The bill was rushed through without pursuing standard practices – discussions and cost and consequence scoring, by the CBO.

      It now goes to the Senate where it will encounter changes and possibly rejection. Senator Susan Collins, Maine, says there is no timeline for Senate consideration, only that she expects the Senate to take its time and do it right.
      AHCA is not the law of the land yet. All this negativity and uncertainty must make it next to impossible for Insurance companies to project risk and coverage.  That in itself stands to press ACA to the edge.      

       Republicans will now move on to tax deform where it will tip the scales further in favor of corporations and upper income persons.

THE RISK !     

      If successful, this administration’s late-stage stimulus will set the stage for a huge shortfall in US government receipts, resulting in the need to gut  dozens of government programs that address need and quality of life.
        For the most part Republicans, greedy bankers and financial institutions gave us the “Great Recession/Bear Market” 2007-2009.  The next one will be worse, because the government will lack the fiscal stimuli to pull the country out of its depressed state. 
       Can’t happen ?   Weren’t safeguards imposed through Dodd-Frank to prevent another meltdown ?
       Yes, however the House voted Thursday to roll back many of those measures, which they claim have slowed down economic growth. This is the same pattern of corporate “permissiveness” that set the stage for the 2007 – 2009 crash. ”Read “Too Big To Fail” by Sorkin, just don’t make it bedtime reading. 

………………………………………………………………………
STARVE the BEAST  !
     Trump’s plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% from 35% would trigger a $2.4 trillion shortfall in government revenues, forcing massive cuts to government programs, as well as increased taxes in other areas to offset the loss.   

     This is an opportunity of a lifetime for Republicans to fulfill their dream to devastate social programs across the board, i.e. slash government income and there is no alternative but to gut government programs. 
      It’s called “Starve The Beast,” and will result in a vast reduction in the quality of life of most Americans, especially those who put Trump in office.
      Congress will waste little time seizing an opportunity of their lifetime – to ruthlessly, senselessly and wantonly dismember a system that works well without the intrusion of Republicans.

……………………………………………………………………
I AM KEEPING THE FOLLOWING ALIVE BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN UPSTAGED BY TRUMP’S 100-DAY STAMPEDE TO  SAVE FACE.
………………………………………………………..

PREUTERS WORLD NEWS APRIL 19, 4:20 PM
“A Russian government think tank controlled by Vladimir Putin developed a plan to swing the 2016 U.S. presidential election to Donald Trump and undermine voters’ faith in the American electoral system, three current and four former U.S. officials told Reuters.
      Russian documents appear to confirm what U.S. intelligence agencies have believed  all along that Russia influenced the outcome of our presidential election. 
      Yesterday, Reuters released documents, which were prepared by the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies[https://en.riss/], after the election that confirm this conclusion.
      It recommended that a, “propaganda campaign on social media and Russian backed global news outlets to encourage U.S. voters to elect a president who would take a softer line toward Russia than the administration of then-President Barach Obama, the seven officials said.”
     Additionally, a second institute document recommended Russia end its pro-Trump propaganda and intensify messaging about voter fraud to undermine the U.S. electoral system’s legitimacy and damage Clinton’s reputation.
      So far, investigations by U.S. institutions and Congress have not concluded collusion between Trump’s team and Russian operatives occurred.
     But U.S. investigations are still being conducted.
     I personally believe collusion DID take place, and odds are GOOD that it reaches far beyond collusion, that based on what I see and how people in the administration are acting.
……………………………………………………………….

TRUMP  – TOAST ?
      Just a hunch, but I think collusion regarding influencing the election is only part of something much bigger, like major league money transfers for options on oil investments, real estate holdings, and land deals. That’s why it is taking so much time.
      If we begin to see more and more of VP Pence, it may suggest the end for Trump is getting closer. Clearly, the inside knows something is about to break.  Trump is “toast,” IMVHO.
      There are so many people who know so much, and they are going to be watching out for number ONE, and that is not Donald Trump.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  April 14, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 13.5%. Q2 growth  is projected at +7.2%, Q3 at +7.7%, and Q4 at +12.5%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 10.0%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.5 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0. Energy is the big contributor to Q1, S&P 500 growth.  While its percentage growth rate cannot be calculated since the sector was losing money a year ago it is in the black to the tune of $8.5 billion vs. a loss of $1.5 billion in Q1 2016. Materials:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 4/28/17)
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  April 25, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,763 a more extreme risk is 20,571.Near-term upside potential is 21,333
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ODDS FAVOR
1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.

Conclusion: It is happening now
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.

Conclusion: It started on Easter weekend in Berkeley.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
*CBS News
**Bloomberg: Noah Feldman (May 17, 2017)
*** New York Times: Charles Savage, (May 18, 2017)

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Street’s Algos to Switch to SELL ?

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:20,979
S&P 500: 2,400
Nasdaq  Comp.:6,169
Russell 2000: 1,394
Wednesday, May 17, 2017    9:08 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

        As I have emphasized over and over again, as long as the Street expects a major corporate tax cut and a big spend on the military and/or infrastructure, it will be bullish.
        Since his inauguration, President Trump has given the Street many reasons to be concerned, not just whether this promised stimulus would occur, but how much damage Trump  would do domestically and internationally.
         Most of the Street has not been concerned, nor has most of the Republican Congress.

         THAT MAY BE ABOUT TO CHANGE.

TODAY
        Investment research, decisions and executions are highly computerized with algorithms capable of scanning an enormous amount of data in route to deciding what and how much to buy, and, yes, whether to be bullish or bearish.
        These algos control trillions of dollars, and to-date it looks like most of these algos see no reason to stop buying or to sell.
         But it is a human who develops these algos, which is flaw #1.
         Flaw #2 is how could anyone program these computers to anticipate the bizarre behavior of our president and a Congress best characterized as constitutional anarchists ?
         What happens if the Street decides it has been wrong and  goes into its computers to adjust for the possibility that the BIG stimulus will be delayed, or won’t happen at all, because Trump will be forced out of office, and the Democrats will regain control of Congress in 2018 ?
       All that “think alike” money will head for the exit at the same time.
       “If” that happens, we won’t get a trickle down decline, it will be straight down  and there won’t be a damn thing anyone will be able to do to avert a 30% – 45% loss.
        Can it happen ?  YES !
        Will it happen ?
        I think so, though  odds still favor more upside as long as the Street believes the big stimulus will happen.
        That’s the swing factor. The market soared after the election based on Trump’s promises and is vulnerable to disappointment.
         While it hasn’t been given much thought, there is an increasing chance the Republican Party will lose control of the Senate, even the House in 2018, depending on how bad things go from here. That is a negative for the market, even though markets historically do better under Democrats.  
TODAY

       It looks like the spell is broken –  It could get ugly, it all depends on what new negative hits at this point.                                               
 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,747;S&P 500:2,371; Nasdaq Comp.:6,079
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
CORPORATE EARNINGS
(updated  May 15, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 13.6%. Q2 growth  is projected at +6.8%, Q3 at +7.5%, and Q4 at +12.4%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 9.9%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.5 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0.
Note: These numbers change frequently.
 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 5/15/17)
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  April 25, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,856 a more extreme risk is 20,703.Near-term upside potential is 21,333
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 
POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
SMOKING GUN ?
      Reportedly, President Trump asked FBI director, James Comey,  to drop the ongoing investigation
of former national security adviser Michael Flynn. According to the New York Times,  Comey wrote a two-page memo covering that conversation with Trump at the White House in February. Trump’s urging falls under “improper efforts to influence an ongoing investigation.”
      This news comes a week after Trump fired Comey, and days after Trump indiscreetly shared classified information at the White House with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Ambassador Sergey Kislyak who were visiting at Trump’s request.  While not illegal, Trump’s action was widely criticized as potentially creating a hesitancy on the part of foreign countries to share intelligence of the United States.
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Monday, May 15,  Joe Scarborough (Morning Joe –  MSNBC) said he believes President Trump fired FBI director James Comey,  because Comey was getting close to exposing whatever criminal actions Trump has been trying to hide.
       That’s a strong allegation by Joe. What is new here is the word “criminal.” We have heard the word “collusion” a zillion times, but criminal takes this to a higher level, much higher.
       The whole issue of collusion would be hard to prove unless one of Trump’s  present or former team members (Manafort, Flynn, Sessions, Page, Stone) squeals.  Lower the boom on any of them, and anything is possible, including the end of the Trump fake presidency.
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       On January 24, 2017, President Trump signed an executive order withdrawing the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations and opting out a  trade with countries which generated $27 trillion in trade in 2015.  On January 25, I questioned whether we were opening the door for China.
      Tuesday, May 16, thirty countries, including Russia, ended a meeting to promote Asian and European cooperation in a broad range of issues, including China’s “Belt and Road” project, designed to expand China’s global stature and trade in Asia, Africa and Europe by investing in ports, railways, and infrastructure  facilities, with the expenditure by China of $7 trillion over ten years.
       Indeed, Trump’s decision to focus on domestic issues and opt out of foreign affairs, one of which was TPP, has let China fill a huge void in trade and influence in the Pacific and Africa.
        This is the downside of having a blowhard, bumbling, narcissistic president.  Hopefully, we can survive him, as well as our extremist Congress, which is more dangerous now doing something, than it was doing nothing during President Obama’s eight years in office.  Pity !
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PSYCHOLOGY 101 ?
     
The Trump presidency, has issued in a whole new set of psychological terms, none flattering to President Trump or the voters who put him in office.

CONFIRMATION BIAS:  the tendency to interpret, perceive, or recall information in a way that confirms one’s pre-existing  beliefs even when faced with irrefutable proof to the contrary.  Having a closed mind to one’s own peril would be another way of putting it. Is it sheer stupidity to vote against one’s best interests ?  Yes, but they do it all the time. Credit lack of information, or simply the inability to mentally and emotionally process information accurately and without bias.  
DEVIANCY DOWN:  A term originally used by the late Senator Patrick Moynihan to warn voters against accepting bad behavior, stupidity, demagoguery, lying, ignorance as the “norm.”
      Bloomberg’s Albert Hunt, wrote about it on May 14, referring to Trump critics being in awe when Trump gives a speech that is reasonably coherent or takes sensible action on something.  Suddenly  critics treat it as a momentous occasion, when in fact, it is what presidents are expected to do.
      Essentially, it is the dumbing down of a person’s behavior. This is partly responsible for Trump supporters and Republicans in Congress  accepting Trumps obnoxious behavior, uncharacteristic of past presidents.  In spite of all of Trump’s nonsensical bluster and tweets, even his critics are relieved when he has a moment of sanity, hopeful that a new Trump has emerged, one who acts presidential. Why is inferior behavior acceptable ? Don’t know, but my guess is people feel less inferior when a high level official like Trump acts inferior too.

DUNNING-KRUGER EFFECT: A cognitive bias whereby people of low mental or physical ability actually perceive themselves as excelling in those areas.  Columnist, George Will recently touched on this, concluding Trump suffers from a dangerous disability, not only because he’s ignorant, and ignorant of his ignorance, but because  he does not know what it is to know something.”  
      WOW !  You said that, George ?
  Another way to say it would be, a person who thinks they know everything but in fact don’t know what it is to know something. It’s a failure to recognize their own shortcomings, so they conclude they have none.  Unfortunately, in addition to being a narcissist, Trump falls into this category. Just because he has been successful in real estate and show business, he concludes he can be successful at anything.
      Voters in this category don’t feel they need to do any  research on qualifications or policies, they simply know how to vote, because they can’t make the wrong decision – too smart !
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HEALTHCARE:  NOW THE HOUSE REPUBLICANS OWN IT !
NOTE:
This is just the beginning and information is still sketchy. One excellent source is the Henry J. Kaiser Foundation (www.kff.org)
      The House narrowly passed the American Health Care Act (AHCA) last week by a vote of 217 to 213. 
      The House failed twice to pass a similar version. The bill was rushed through without pursuing standard practices – discussions and cost and consequence scoring, by the CBO.

      It now goes to the Senate where it will encounter changes and possibly rejection. Senator Susan Collins, Maine, says there is no timeline for Senate consideration, only that she expects the Senate to take its time and do it right.
      AHCA is not the law of the land yet. All this negativity and uncertainty must make it next to impossible for Insurance companies to project risk and coverage.  That in itself stands to press ACA to the edge.      

       Republicans will now move on to tax deform where it will tip the scales further in favor of corporations and upper income persons.

THE RISK !      

      If successful, this administration’s late-stage stimulus will set the stage for a huge shortfall in US government receipts, resulting in the need to gut  dozens of government programs that address need and quality of life.
        For the most part Republicans, greedy bankers and financial institutions gave us the “Great Recession/Bear Market” 2007-2009.  The next one will be worse, because the government will lack the fiscal stimuli to pull the country out of its depressed state. 
       Can’t happen ?   Weren’t safeguards imposed through Dodd-Frank to prevent another meltdown ?
       Yes, however the House voted Thursday to roll back many of those measures, which they claim have slowed down economic growth. This is the same pattern of corporate “permissiveness” that set the stage for the 2007 – 2009 crash. ”Read “Too Big To Fail” by Sorkin, just don’t make it bedtime reading. 

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STARVE the BEAST  !
     Trump’s plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% from 35% would trigger a $2.4 trillion shortfall in government revenues, forcing massive cuts to government programs, as well as increased taxes in other areas to offset the loss.   

     This is an opportunity of a lifetime for Republicans to fulfill their dream to devastate social programs across the board, i.e. slash government income and there is no alternative but to gut government programs. 
      It’s called “Starve The Beast,” and will result in a vast reduction in the quality of life of most Americans, especially those who put Trump in office.
      Congress will waste little time seizing an opportunity of their lifetime – to ruthlessly, senselessly and wantonly dismember a system that works well without the intrusion of Republicans.

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I AM KEEPING THE FOLLOWING ALIVE BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN UPSTAGED BY TRUMP’S 100-DAY STAMPEDE TO  SAVE FACE.
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PREUTERS WORLD NEWS APRIL 19, 4:20 PM
“A Russian government think tank controlled by Vladimir Putin developed a plan to swing the 2016 U.S. presidential election to Donald Trump and undermine voters’ faith in the American electoral system, three current and four former U.S. officials told Reuters.
      Russian documents appear to confirm what U.S. intelligence agencies have believed  all along that Russia influenced the outcome of our presidential election. 
      Yesterday, Reuters released documents, which were prepared by the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies[https://en.riss/], after the election that confirm this conclusion.
      It recommended that a, “propaganda campaign on social media and Russian backed global news outlets to encourage U.S. voters to elect a president who would take a softer line toward Russia than the administration of then-President Barach Obama, the seven officials said.”
     Additionally, a second institute document recommended Russia end its pro-Trump propaganda and intensify messaging about voter fraud to undermine the U.S. electoral system’s legitimacy and damage Clinton’s reputation.
      So far, investigations by U.S. institutions and Congress have not concluded collusion between Trump’s team and Russian operatives occurred.
     But U.S. investigations are still being conducted.
     I personally believe collusion DID take place, and odds are GOOD that it reaches far beyond collusion, that based on what I see and how people in the administration are acting.
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TRUMP  – TOAST ?
      Just a hunch, but I think collusion regarding influencing the election is only part of something much bigger, like major league money transfers for options on oil investments, real estate holdings, and land deals. That’s why it is taking so much time.
      If we begin to see more and more of VP Pence, it may suggest the end for Trump is getting closer. Clearly, the inside knows something is about to break.  Trump is “toast,” IMVHO.
      There are so many people who know so much, and they are going to be watching out for number ONE, and that is not Donald Trump.

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WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
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CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  April 14, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 13.5%. Q2 growth  is projected at +7.2%, Q3 at +7.7%, and Q4 at +12.5%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 10.0%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.5 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0. Energy is the big contributor to Q1, S&P 500 growth.  While its percentage growth rate cannot be calculated since the sector was losing money a year ago it is in the black to the tune of $8.5 billion vs. a loss of $1.5 billion in Q1 2016. Materials:
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MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 4/28/17)
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  April 25, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,763 a more extreme risk is 20,571.Near-term upside potential is 21,333
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ODDS FAVOR
1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.

Conclusion: It is happening now
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.

Conclusion: It started on Easter weekend in Berkeley.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
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George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.