Street Nervous About Stimulus Delay

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 20,658
S&P 500: 2,357
Nasdaq  Comp.:5,880
Russell 2000:1,367
Tuesday, April  11, 2017    9:13 a.m.
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      President Trump has scrapped the tax plan he proposed during his campaign and will start over with a proposal not coming until fall. Trump has indicated he  wants a tax cut that helps rural and industrialized parts of the country.  But are income taxes an issue with them ? What about jobs and a massive effort to train these people ?
      Infrastructure stocks got a play yesterday, which begs the question, who gets the promised big spend – infrastructure or the military ?
      Based on what we saw last week in Syria and North Korea, It looks like military spending would have a better chance of getting the nod in Congress, though the “spend” may not be as big as the Street hoped for.
     So here we are back to square one after a lot of wheel spinning and trips down side streets.
      I sense there are two reasons for the shake up in the White House.  The BIG money, the ones you rarely see and who are even less often quoted have decided they have too much at stake to permit Trump to blunder aimlessly and noisily onward day after day, risking the alienation of  established allies, the decimation of mutual trade relationships,  an unwanted war, and further polarization of America.
      Then too, Trump is hearing footsteps from all directions. He has circled the wagons, staffing key positions with relatives and close friends who will help him CHA.
TODAY
       The market is up over the last five months on expectation of a massive stimulus, but that is not happening as fast as the Street projected. This, in face of  a dangerously  inept administration. So far the Street has not given up hope, but doubts are creeping in as evidenced by slippage in stock prices over the last month, as the repeal and replacement of the ACA failed and Trump’s tax plan may not be introduced until fall.
      While an overpriced stock market has ignored stagnant earnings in recent years, that may change as earnings rebound to close the overvaluation gap.
       It’s a standoff. Bulls say an earnings rebound and the stimulus down the road will drive the market higher.
      Bears say, Trump’s bumbling, a division in Congress, the uncertain timing of the stimulus, and the possibility of a Trump scandal  will crack the market.
     Investors must be ready for a big move in either direction as the Street resolves this issue in coming weeks.

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SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,526;S&P 500:2,346; Nasdaq Comp.:5,853
RESISTANCE: “today”:DJIA:20,726;S&P500:2,365;NASDAQ Comp.:5,903

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POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET

      The rape and pillage of our federal government continues, as Republican Thomas Massie a introduced a bill in February aimed at terminating the Department of Education effective December 31, 2018. This coincided with the Senate confirmation of Conservative Betsy DeVos, a long time advocate of school vouchers and critic of public education.
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      The U.S. Navy strike group, Carl Vinson, is currently headed for the western Pacific Ocean in the vicinity of the Korean peninsula, but will not arrive until next week.
      My guess is that the objective of the meeting between Trump and China President Xi Jinping was to inform Xi  the United States was going to move warships into the region in a show of force after North Korea’s recent missile launch. Both presidents agreed that North Korea’s nuclear development has reached a “serious stage.”  On February 26, China banned all imports of coal from North Korea in response to its continuing missile launches.
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      After President Trump’s inauguration, former President, George W. Bush, was heard to comment, “That was some weird S_ _ _.”   Very prophetic “W.”.
      The Trump administration is undergoing a major shakeup, with national security adviser General H.R. McMaster and  Secretary of Defense James Mattis stepping in to stabilize an out of control bunch of inexperienced people in high places. Some speculate Trump shifting to a more centrist strategy.
      Steve Bannon’s demotion set a new tone, away from the isolationist, nationalism mindset and possibly back to maintaining military and economic balance, cultivating global strategic relationships to deter China from filling vacuums we would create under the Alt-Right, Ayn Rand approach to self-destruction. 
      Get rid of the Alt-Right influence and we have only to deal with Trump’s arrogance, warped ego and immeasurable lack of qualifications for the job.
…………………………………………………………………………………….

Syria Attack Was All About Trump’s 35% Approval Rating          

        It worked ! His approval rating is 40, up from 35. I Have continually warned that Trump would put the U.S. on a war footing to boost patriotic support and his approval rating.  We now have a double-header – Syria last week and now a U.S. Naval strike group is headed toward the Korean peninsula.
       Last week,  Syrian airfield strike with 59 Tomahawk missiles launched from two Destroyers in the Mediterranean Sea was in retaliation for Asaad’s use of Sarin gas on April 4 that killed more than 70 civilians.
      For Trump, this is an about face on intervention in the Mid-East, and the only reason I can see is he expects it to boost his approval ratings.
      In 2013 he urged President Obama not to retaliate against Asaad for his use of nerve agent sarin in 2013 tweeting “Again to our very foolish leader do not attack Syria –If you do many bad things will happen & from that fight the U.S.gets nothing.”  – “The only reason President Obama wants to attack Syria is to save face over his very dumb RED LINE statement. DO NOT attack Syria.” (Sept. 5, 2017).
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

HOUSE INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE
       What happened to the hearings ?  Looks like Syria  was yet another distraction, perhaps this one unplanned. Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, Devin Nunes has temporarily ceded control of  the investigation of pre-election collusion between Russia and the Trump team to Mike Conway of Texas, whining charges by “several left-wing activists” that he made unauthorized disclosures of classified information relative to the investigation.
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TRUMP SQUIRMS BUT A WAR FOOTING MAY BAIL HIM OUT
      The more Trump squirms to find a way to divert attention from the main issue demanding resolution, the guiltier he looks.
      The current diversion is Susan Rice who Trump accused of being politically motivated when certain Trump associate were included in a sweep of foreign officials last year by U.S. intelligence agencies. Their identities are usually not revealed, but may be if national security is an issue. To everyone’s surprise, Trump claims in a tweet that Rice committed a crime when certain individuals were “unmasked”. Rice was National Security Advisor to President Obama from 2013 to 2017.
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WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  March 31, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 8.9%. That compares with a Q1 est. on Dec. 31 of +12.5%.  2017 as a whole are projected at a plus 9.8% down from Dec. 31 estimates of 11.6%.  Currently, the P/E on trailing 12-month earnings is 19.8 x, and based on earnings 12 months out is 17.5 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 3/29/17 and )
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  March 29, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,413 a more extreme risk is 20,196.Near-term upside potential is 21,113
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ODDS FAVOR
1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note:
Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Important Technical Juncture

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 20,656
S&P 500: 2,355
Nasdaq  Comp.5,877:
Russell 2000:1,364
Monday, April  10, 2017    9:13 a.m.
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Just about the time it seemed safe to feel the economy was ready for acceleration, we get reasons to have second thoughts.  While the March Employment Situation Report plunged to 78,000 new jobs added, it would have been significantly better without major storms in the northeast.
      One troubling report was motor vehicles, down three straight months. As usual, a rising trade deficit not helped by a strong U.S. Dollar. Monthly trade deficits of $60 billion haven been driven by imports of consumer goods  and oil and a slump in exports of machinery, aircraft and electronics. On a positive note, international demand for U.S. technical and managerial services has been strong.
      So far, only the stock market has reflected optimism for a Trump bump in the economy. 
      Fed talk of unwinding the debt in its portfolio and continuing its plan for two more increases in its benchmark interest rate this year and three in 2018, now seem to give the Street reason to think twice of getting even more aggressive.

      Then too, there are increasing doubts about the effectiveness of the Trump administration in face of a major shakeup at the highest levels and the failure of it to adequately staff secondary levels, primarily in the State Department where only half  the vacancies have been filled after most individuals were forced out when Trump took over.
      Congressional investigations and that by the FBI into possible collusion between the Trump team and Russia to get Trump elected cast a pall over the administration’s credibility.
TODAY
      Looks like a mixed open.  This market lost its momentum in February when it began tracking down. The trend is orderly so far, since the Street still is banking on Trump’s promises of a tax cut, deregulation and a big spend on the military and infrastructure.
       This downtrend could accelerate if doubts rise that this massive stimulus will be seriously delayed, or will fall short of expectations.
The Bulls must bring it now.
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SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,601;S&P 500:2,351; Nasdaq Comp.:5,863
RESISTANCE: “today”:DJIA:20,731;S&P500:2,362;NASDAQ Comp.:5,891

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POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET

WHO, ARE WE SEEING A MAJOR CHANG IN THEPOWER STRUCTURE – ALT-RIGHT OUT – GENERALS IN ?
     
The Trump administration is undergoing a major shakeup, with national security adviser General H.R. McMaster and  Secretary of Defense James Mattis stepping in to stabilize an out of control bunch of inexperienced people in high places. Some speculate Trump shifting to a more centrist strategy.
      Steve Bannon’s demotion set a new tone, away from the isolationist, nationalism mindset and possibly back to maintaining military and economic balance, cultivating global strategic relationships to deter China from filling vacuums we would create under the Alt-Right, Ayn Rand approach to self-destruction. 
      Get rid of the Alt-Right influence and we have only to deal with Trump’s arrogance, warped ego and immeasurable lack of qualifications for the job.

Syria Attack Was All About Trump’s 35% Approval Rating          
      It worked ! His approval rating is 40, up from 35. I Have continually warned that Trump would put the U.S. on a war footing to boost patriotic support and his approval rating.  We now have a double-header – Syria last week and now a U.S. Naval strike group is headed toward the Korean peninsula.
       Last week,  Syrian airfield strike with 59 Tomahawk missiles launched from two Destroyers in the Mediterranean Sea was in retaliation for Asaad’s use of Sarin gas on April 4 that killed more than 70 civilians.
      For Trump, this is an about face on intervention in the Mid-East, and the only reason I can see is he expects it to boost his approval ratings.
      In 2013 he urged President Obama not to retaliate against Asaad for his use of nerve agent sarin in 2013 tweeting “Again to our very foolish leader do not attack Syria –If you do many bad things will happen & from that fight the U.S.gets nothing.”  – “The only reason President Obama wants to attack Syria is to save face over his very dumb RED LINE statement. DO NOT attack Syria.” (Sept. 5, 2017).

HOUSE INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE
       What happened to the hearings ?  Looks like Syria  was yet another distraction, perhaps this one unplanned. Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, Devin Nunes has temporarily ceded control of  the investigation of pre-election collusion between Russia and the Trump team to Mike Conway of Texas, whining charges by “several left-wing activists” that he made unauthorized disclosures of classified information relative to the investigation.

TRUMP SQUIRMS BUT A WAR FOOTING MAY BAIL HIM OUT
      The more Trump squirms to find a way to divert attention from the main issue demanding resolution, the guiltier he looks.
      The current diversion is Susan Rice who Trump accused of being politically motivated when certain Trump associate were included in a sweep of foreign officials last year by U.S. intelligence agencies. Their identities are usually not revealed, but may be if national security is an issue. To everyone’s surprise, Trump claims in a tweet that Rice committed a crime when certain individuals were “unmasked”. Rice was National Security Advisor to President Obama from 2013 to 2017.

WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  March 31, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 8.9%. That compares with a Q1 est. on Dec. 31 of +12.5%.  2017 as a whole are projected at a plus 9.8% down from Dec. 31 estimates of 11.6%.  Currently, the P/E on trailing 12-month earnings is 19.8 x, and based on earnings 12 months out is 17.5 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 3/29/17 and )
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  March 29, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,413 a more extreme risk is 20,196.Near-term upside potential is 21,113
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ODDS FAVOR
1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note:
Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Still All About The Big Stimulus

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 20,662
S&P 500: 2,357
Nasdaq  Comp.:5,878
Russell 2000:1,364
Friday, April  7, 2017    9:09 a.m.
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      The U.S. Missile strike on an airfield in Syria in response to Syrian President al-Asaad’s sarin gassing of civilians in Syria is Front Page news today. 
      So far, the Street is wary, but not panicky.
      Along with dozens of other scenarios, the military opted for this strike, taking care to exclude civilians and Russians from the casualties.
      What happens next is more important.
     
As I expected, the Street still has enough hope for a massive stimulus to step in and warily buy in face of Wednesday’s Fed announcement about its bond portfolio, as well as other looming negatives – Syria, North Korea, and potentially the biggest political scandal in our nation’s history.
      The Fed plans to begin unwinding its $4.5 trillion bond portfolio amassed over eight years of Quantitative Easing to support the economy which was rising out of the worst recession (Dec.2007 – June 2009) since the 1930s. It didn’t help that some members said they felt the stock market. Its portfolio consists of treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. To date, it has been reinvesting the proceeds from the bonds and rolling them over rather than reducing its balance sheet. That will end.

TODAY
      The market has stabilized before the open with the Street confident, there will be few consequences for yesterday’s U.S. missile strike on Syria. If the market stalls with little downside in early trading, the market stands to rally robustly going into the weekend.
        It’s still all about the stimulus….. so far.
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SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:20,576;S&P :2,349; Nasdaq Comp.:5,849
RESISTANCE: “today”: DJIA:20,773;S&P500:2,378;NASDAQ Comp.:5,903

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POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
       Why a Trump Syria Policy Change Now ?
Is This About His 35%Approval Rating ?

        Of course, Trump has continually demonstrated defending his image trumps everything.
       Yesterday’s Syrian airfield strike with 59 Tomahawk missiles launched from two Destroyers in the Mediterranean Sea was in retaliation for Asaad’s use of Sarin gas on April 4 that killed more than 70 civilians.
      For Trump, this is an about face on intervention in the Mid-East, and the only reason I can see is he expects it to boost his approval ratings….and it will, by 5 – 7 points –clever. 
      In 2013 he urged President Obama not to retaliate against Asaad for his use of nerve agent sarin in 2013 tweeting “Again to our very foolish leader do not attack Syria –If you do many bad things will happen & from that fight the U.S.gets nothing.”  – “The only reason President Obama wants to attack Syria is to save face over his very dumb RED LINE statement. DO NOT attack Syria.” (Sept. 5, 2017).
      I Have continually warned against Trump putting the U.S. on a war footing to boost patriotic support and his approval rating. I expected it to be North Korea.  The Syrian gassing provided a perfect opportunity.
      With his approval rating at record lows for any president in his first 100 days, Trump is desperate to do something. Privately, he is thankful for this opportunity.

        By the way, how come Trump is so outraged about children being gassed in Syria. Was he equally outraged about the murder of the 20  six-year olds in Sandy Hook, Connecticut in 2012 ?

        Well, reportedly, Trump and Michael Flynn have been enthusiasts of Alex Jones’ “Infowars,” a web-based radio and video network that has promoted the theory that Sandy Hook was staged by Democrats to champion a gun control agenda. After he won in November, Trump called to thank Jones for his support.

          Maybe America is the sick one. NRA membership exploded after Sandy Hook.  These were six-year olds, gunned down at point blank range by the son of an NRA gun lover. SICK, SICK, SICK, SICK, SICK !

HOUSE INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE
            Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, Devin Nunes will temporarily cede control of  the investigation of pre-election collusion between Russia and the trump team to Mike Conway of Texas, citing charges by “several left-wing activists” that he made unauthorized disclosures of classified information relative to the investigation.
      Don’t expect this to go very far, Nunes is being investigated by the House Ethics Committee.
      The Republicans regained total control of the Supreme Court yesterday, overriding the Democrat’s filibuster with the so-called nuclear option. Republicans voted to overturn the 60-vote requirement for Supreme Court nominees and the Senate followed with a 55-45 procedural vote to enable today’s final confirmation of Neil Gorsuch.  With this act, the Republicans drive a wedge in any hope for an unbiased court.  The Republicans win – our Republic loses.

     What now, an extension of the Republican rape and pillage of all gains for humanity achieved over the years via our legal system ?  Afraid so.
TRUMP SQUIRMS BUT A WAR FOOTING MAY BAIL HIM OUT
      The more Trump squirms to find a way to divert attention from the main issue demanding resolution, the guiltier he looks.
      The current diversion is Susan Rice who Trump accused of being politically motivated when certain Trump associate were included in a sweep of foreign officials last year by U.S. intelligence agencies. Their identities are usually not revealed, but may be if national security is an issue. To everyone’s surprise, Trump claims in a tweet that Rice committed a crime when certain individuals were “unmasked”. Rice was National Security Advisor to President Obama from 2013 to 2017.

WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
       
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  March 31, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.1%. That compares with a Q! est. on Dec. 31 of +12.5%.  2017 as a whole are projected at a plus 9.8% down from Dec. 31 estimates of 11.6%.  Currently, the P/E on trailing 12-month earnings is 19.8 x, and based on earnings 12 months out is 17.6 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 13.9. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 3/29/17 and )
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  March 29, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,413 a more extreme risk is 20,196.Near-term upside potential is 21,113
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ODDS FAVOR
1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
       
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note:
Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Fed, China, N.Korea, Syria, Russia !

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 20,648
S&P 500: 2,352
Nasdaq  Comp.:5,864
Russell 2000:1,352
Thursday, April  6, 2017    8:56 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
   
The market averages broke out robustly from a consolidation pattern yesterday with the DJIA up 200 points in the morning before running into resistance and closing on the downside, erasing a nice gain.
      Enter the Federal Reserve with the minutes of its March meeting and news that later this year the Fed plans to begin unwinding its $4.5 trillion bond portfolio amassed over eight years of Quantitative Easing to support the economy which was rising out of the worst recession (Dec.2007 – June 2006) since the 1930s. It didn’t help that some members said they felt the stock market. Its portfolio consists of treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. To date, it has been reinvesting the proceeds from the bonds and rolling them over rather than reducing its balance sheet. That will end.
      All this should not come as a surprise to the Street, in fact, the release of the Fed’s intent should be a relief.
      So, back we go to the massive stimulus the Street has salivated over for six months.  Can a floundering administration with its leader sporting a 36% approval rating, unable to pass its first campaign promise, (repeal/replace ACA), deliver on its other promises, and when ?
      Trump has a chance to add a few quality points to his record low approval rating this week if he can negotiate some progress on trade and North Korea with China’s president Xi Jinping starting today at (you guessed it) Mar-a-Lago at Palm Beach,  Florida.

       Then too, what is he going to do with Syria, whose President Bashar al-Asaad is responsible for gassing its own people, something Trump reportedly deplores ?
      Then too, we have the investigation of pre-election  collusion between Russia and the Trump team to skew the results in Trump’s favor.
      Yesterday’s jolt indicates an increasing nervousness on the Street about a host of issues, all referred to herein.
      The markets should regain some of what it gave up yesterday after the Fed news about reducing its balance sheet.  The key will be, can it hold today’s gain ?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:20,578;S&P :2,344; Nasdaq Comp.:5,837
RESISTANCE: “today”: DJIA:20,756;S&P500:2,364;NASDAQ Comp.:5,887

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  March 31, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.1%. That compares with a Q! est. on Dec. 31 of +12.5%.  2017 as a whole are projected at a plus 9.8% down from Dec. 31 estimates of 11.6%.  Currently, the P/E on trailing 12-month earnings is 19.8 x, and based on earnings 12 months out is 17.6 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 13.9. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 3/29/17 and )
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  March 29, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,413 a more extreme risk is 20,196.Near-term upside potential is 21,113
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
     
The more Trump squirms to find a way to divert attention from the main issue demanding resolution, the guiltier he looks.
      The current diversion is Susan Rice who Trump accused of being politically motivated when certain Trump associate were included in a sweep of foreign officials last year by U.S. intelligence agencies. Their identities are usually not revealed, but may be if national security is an issue. To everyone’s surprise, Trump claims in a tweet that Rice committed a crime when certain individuals were “unmasked”. Rice was National Security Advisor to President Obama from 2013 to 2017.

      Steve Bannon of Breitfart fame, was removed from the National Security Council and replaced with Rick Perry, Energy Secretary.
      Bannon may be in a pickle for violating an ethics pledge for communicating with Breitbart News editors after assuming his position as Trump’s chief strategist. Reportedly, Bannon still holds a position of importance, though his removal may indicate a distancing of the White House away from the extremist Alt-Right ideology which is way, way out there in right field.
      Breitbart News and Bannon himself have been backed financially by billionaire Robert Mercer  and daughter Rebekah. Originally a backer of Ted Cruz, the Mercers switched support to Trump when Cruz bombed last year. My point here is, just how far will Trump go in pulling the plug on Bannon with Mercer there with the big bucks ?
      Then too, will Mercer want out if Bannon runs into trouble.  He did bail on Cruz ?  Interesting. Mercer is a highly successful and obviously brilliant quant hedge fund manager, and he too is out there in deep right field.
CHINA’S Xi
      Trump meets with China’s president Xi Jinping today to discuss trade, North Korea and currencies. Xi will have to overlook Trump’s campaign rant, “We can’t continue to allow China to rape our country, and that is what they are doing. It’s the greatest theft in the history of the world.”
      Both have a lot to be gained from this meeting.  Trump doesn’t want to look like a doormat, and Xi needs to show he can deal with Trump.
      My guess is some concessions on China’s yuan, as well as China’s promise to put the arm on North Korea, or MORE !       
      Ex-Blackwater founder, Eric Prince is back in the headlines. The Washington Post reports  the United Arab Emirates (UAE) arranged a meeting on January 11 between Prince and a Russian close to Putin  intended to ultimately establish communication between Russia and President Trump.  The meeting was held in the Seychilles Isands in the Indian Ocean.  The Post reports that one item on the agenda was to encourage Russia to curtail support for Iran and Syria ( on the Trump wish list) in exchange for lifting the U.S. sanctions on Russia.
     
Prince, brother of Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, is a big supporter of Trump, having contributed $250,000 to his campaign.  A libertarian, Prince has global investment and business interests focused on below the radar activities related to providing security for the UAE and elsewhere, as well as developing mercenary forces for strategic deployment  by the UAE and African nations.

TRUMPCARE
     
Trump is scrambling to get an Obamacare repeal/replace plan agreed on for vote this week. The administration is negotiating with the Freedom Caucus to arrive on an acceptable plan.  That spells trouble for policy holders since the Caucus pushed for less coverage at greater costs than offered by the Republicans’ first try with AHSC (Trumpcare).  Trump wants a “WIN” at any cost.
BIGGER SCANDAL THAN WATERGATE IN THE WINGS ?  I think so.  Attempts to cover it up will delay findings, but there are simply too many individuals who know too much and who will surface.
      T
he “Russia situation” seems to worsen daily for President Trump and his chief strategist, Stephen Bannon.
      Look for a “Make America Great Again” advertising blitz in coming weeks, funded by the Mercers.  I am not sure it is a good idea to attract attention at this time, since the Mercers funded Breitbart News and Stephen Bannon, former head of Breitbart and currently strategic advisor to Trump. Reportedly, the FBI has expanded its investigation of collaboration to Alt-Right Breitbart News.
      According to Business Insider.com, Jared Kushner failed to disclose meeting with the CEO, Sergey N. Gorkov, of Vnesheconoombank in December 2016. The bank is Russia’sbank for “Development and Foreign Economic Affairs.  Reportedly, the bank was struggling in face of Russia’s economic woes.  Kushner was seeking investors for a Fifth Avenue office building that is reportedly set to be financed through Anbang Insurance Group, a company with ties to the Chinese government. A White House spokesman denied the New York office project was discussed.
      What then was discussed ?
      What’s worse, CNN’s national security analyst, Juliett Kayyem,  speculates that the FBI has been talking with Mike Flynn, formerly close advisor to Trump.  Flynn was forced to resign when it became apparent he was lying about dealings with Russia.
      The FBI wants to know if Breitbart and INFO Wars, another far right wing site, had a role in  Russian cyber attacks and the spread of fake news, where automated computer commands called “bots” distributed stories to the social media that were pro-Trump and anti-Clinton.
      Generally, a “bot” is designed to automate tasks, bypassing the need to do them manually.    
      The stench of the prospects of a Trump/Russia collusion increases with each disclosure and attempt to change the focus and cover the trail. 
     I still believe Paul Manafort  and Roger Stone hold the key to the puzzle, though Flynn is now in the running.  I think they know whether there was collusion or whether Trump has financial ties to Russia or Russian billionaires, direct or indirect.  Properties somewhere ?  Indirect ownership in oil properties ?  Access to money ? 
      I don’t think this gang expected to win, and as a result got careless and made some bad decisions when Russia came on the scene.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ODDS FAVOR
1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.                                                                

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trump to Put U.S. on War Footing

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 20,689
S&P 500: 2,360
Nasdaq  Comp.:5,898
Russell 2000:1,368
Wednesday, April  5, 2017    9:06 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

     Consumer spending this year has been flat in spite of rises in consumer confidence and sentiment. After a record-setting 2016 where auto sales hit 17.6 million, the group is tracking lower and raising concern in the Street. Inventories are high and incentives near record levels.
      While it’s too early to think recession, investors should watch for other signs of weakness. At 93 months duration, the current expansion is the third longest in 100 years, topped only by the 1961-1969 expansion (106 months) and the 1991-2001 expansion (120 months).
      Earnings for Q1 will be reported in coming weeks. As of December 31, Factset was projecting a gain of 12.5%.  Currently that gain has been revised down to 9.1%. For all of 2017, Factset now see a gain of 9.8% versus its projection of 11.5% at year-end.
      The S&P 500 is currently trading at 24.7 times trailing earnings and at 18.3 times earnings 12 months out.  Its 10-year average P/E is 13.9.
      The S&P 500 P/E a year ago was 23.8X, so the over valuation cannot be attributed to the massive stimulus promised by President Trump.
TODAY
     
Once again, the market closed at its highs for the day, generally a positive sign.  The Street would like to buy more aggressively in expectation of a massive stimulus including tax cuts, deregulation and a big spend on the military and the nation’s infrastructure.
     
But, failure to pass a repeal and replacement for the ACA and continued concern for wrongdoing by the Trump team and Russia before and after the election threatens to delay all the goodies the Street expected to cash in on.
       Stock-index futures suggest a positive open today, the key will be whether it can hold its gain. The S&P 500 and DJIA have been trending down since February, the Nasdaq has trended sideways.
      Usually markets that are ready to decline waste no time in doing so. While soft, this market still has buyers
      As noted below, I expect the Trump administration to put the country on a war footing with North Korea ASAP. It would justify a big  spend on the military (at the expense of infrastructure), but would distract attention away from the investigation of a Trump Russia collaboration to tilt the November election in favor of Trump.
      While new chapters of this political drama unfold daily, confirming suspicions that we may be witnessing the most horrendous political scandal of all time, I think it will take months or a year for us to know what really happened.
      At some point the Street will begin to appreciate how disastrous the Trump administration is for our nation’s best interests and sell relentlessly. So far, it does not look like it is ready for that.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,671;S&P :2,357; Nasdaq Comp.:5,894
RESISTANCE: “today”:DJIA:20,746;S&P500:2,369 ;NASDAQ Comp.:5,912

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  March 31, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.1%. That compares with a Q! est. on Dec. 31 of +12.5%.  2017 as a whole are projected at a plus 9.8% down from Dec. 31 estimates of 11.6%.  Currently, the P/E on trailing 12-month earnings is 19.8 x, and based on earnings 12 months out is 17.6 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 13.9. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 3/29/17 and )
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  March 29, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,413 a more extreme risk is 20,196.Near-term upside potential is 21,113
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
      Ex-Blackwater founder, Eric Prince is back in the headlines. The Washington Post reports  the United Arab Emirates (UAE) arranged a meeting on January 11 between Prince and a Russian close to Putin  intended to ultimately establish communication between Russia and President Trump.  The meeting was held in the Seychilles Isands in the Indian Ocean.  The Post reports that one item on the agenda was to encourage Russia to curtail support for Iran and Syria ( on the Trump wish list) in exchange for lifting the U.S. sanctions on Russia.
      
Prince, brother of Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, is a big supporter of Trump, having contributed $250,000 to his campaign.  A libertarian, Prince has global investment and business interests focused on below the radar activities related to providing security for the UAE and elsewhere, as well as developing mercenary forces for strategic deployment  by the UAE and African nations.

TRUMPCARE

      Trump is scrambling to get an Obamacare repeal/replace plan agreed on for vote this week. The administration is negotiating with the Freedom Caucus to arrive on an acceptable plan.  That spells trouble for policy holders since the Caucus pushed for less coverage at greater costs than offered by the Republicans’ first try with AHSC (Trumpcare).  Trump wants a “WIN” at any cost.
BIGGER SCANDAL THAN WATERGATE IN THE WINGS ?  I think so.  Attempts to cover it up will delay findings, but there are simply too many individuals who know too much and who will surface.
      T
he “Russia situation” seems to worsen daily for President Trump and his chief strategist, Stephen Bannon.
      Look for a “Make America Great Again” advertising blitz in coming weeks, funded by the Mercers.  I am not sure it is a good idea to attract attention at this time, since the Mercers funded Breitbart News and Stephen Bannon, former head of Breitbart and currently strategic advisor to Trump. Reportedly, the FBI has expanded its investigation of collaboration to Alt-Right Breitbart News.
      According to Business Insider.com, Jared Kushner failed to disclose meeting with the CEO, Sergey N. Gorkov, of Vnesheconoombank in December 2016. The bank is Russia’sbank for “Development and Foreign Economic Affairs.  Reportedly, the bank was struggling in face of Russia’s economic woes.  Kushner was seeking investors for a Fifth Avenue office building that is reportedly set to be financed through Anbang Insurance Group, a company with ties to the Chinese government. A White House spokesman denied the New York office project was discussed.
      What then was discussed ?
      What’s worse, CNN’s national security analyst, Juliett Kayyem,  speculates that the FBI has been talking with Mike Flynn, formerly close advisor to Trump.  Flynn was forced to resign when it became apparent he was lying about dealings with Russia.
      The FBI wants to know if Breitbart and INFO Wars, another far right wing site, had a role in  Russian cyber attacks and the spread of fake news, where automated computer commands called “bots” distributed stories to the social media that were pro-Trump and anti-Clinton.
      Generally, a “bot” is designed to automate tasks, bypassing the need to do them manually.    
      The stench of the prospects of a Trump/Russia collusion increases with each disclosure and attempt to change the focus and cover the trail. 
     I still believe Paul Manafort  and Roger Stone hold the key to the puzzle, though Flynn is now in the running.  I think they know whether there was collusion or whether Trump has financial ties to Russia or Russian billionaires, direct or indirect.  Properties somewhere ?  Indirect ownership in oil properties ?  Access to money ? 
      I don’t think this gang expected to win, and as a result got careless and made some bad decisions when Russia came on the scene.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ODDS FAVOR
1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.

ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.                                                                

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Retail Sales Soft – Auto Sales Down

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 20,650
S&P 500: 2,358
Nasdaq  Comp.5,894:
Russell 2000:1,369
Tuesday, April  4, 2017    9:06 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

     Consumer spending this year has been flat in spite of rises in consumer confidence and sentiment. After a record-setting 2016 where auto sales hit 17.6 million, the group is tracking lower and raising concern in the Street. Inventories are high and incentives near record levels.
      While it’s too early to think recession, investors should watch for other signs of weakness. At 93 months duration, the current expansion is the third longest in 100 years, topped only by the 1961-1969 expansion (106 months) and the 1991-2001 expansion (120 months).
      Earnings for Q1 will be reported in coming weeks. As of December 31, Factset was projecting a gain of 12.5%.  Currently that gain has been revised down to 9.1%. For all of 2017, Factset now see a gain of 9.8% versus its projection of 11.5% at year-end.
      The S&P 500 is currently trading at 24.7 times trailing earnings and at 18.3 times earnings 12 months out.  Its 10-year average P/E is 13.9.
      The S&P 500 P/E a year ago was 23.8X, so the over valuation cannot be attributed to the massive stimulus promised by President Trump.
TODAY
      Yesterday, the major market averages closed near the highs for the day, generally a sign of strength, but stock-index futures stand to open lower today, a  sign of weakness.
      The bulls need a strong day to prevent a further sell off, and possibly the beginning of a correction. We are entering a time of year that tends to mark tops or temporary tops for stock prices, which are often a good time to lock in some gains and be extra careful with purchases.
      The market has been trending down since February, which may be due to press reports of possible collusion between the Trump team and Russian operatives in an effort to skew election results in November to Trump.
      There are enough irregularities popping up every day to unnerve the Street and upstage to anticipation of  Trump’s promised massive stimulation.  CAREFUL !    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,549;S&P :2,351; Nasdaq Comp.:5,851
RESISTANCE: “today”:DJIA:20,683;S&P500:2,363 ;NASDAQ Comp.:5,911

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  March 31, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.1%. That compares with a Q! est. on Dec. 31 of +12.5%.  2017 as a whole are projected at a plus 9.8% down from Dec. 31 estimates of 11.6%.  Currently, the P/E on trailing 12-month earnings is 19.8 x, and based on earnings 12 months out is 17.6 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 13.9. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 3/29/17 and )
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  March 29, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,413 a more extreme risk is 20,196.Near-term upside potential is 21,113
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
      Ex-Blackwater founder, Eric Prince is back in the headlines. The Washington Post reports  the United Arab Emirates (UAE) arranged a meeting on January 11 between Prince and a Russian close to Putin  intended to ultimately establish communication between Russia and President Trump.  The meeting was held in the Seychilles Isands in the Indian Ocean.  The Post reports that one item on the agenda was to encourage Russia to curtail support for Iran and Syria ( on the Trump wish list) in exchange for lifting the U.S. sanctions on Russia.
     
Prince, brother of Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, is a big supporter of Trump, having contributed $250,000 to his campaign.  A libertarian, Prince has global investment and business interests focused on below the radar activities related to providing security for the UAE and elsewhere, as well as developing mercenary forces for strategic deployment  by the UAE and African nations.

TRUMPCARE

      Trump is scrambling to get an Obamacare repeal/replace plan agreed on for vote this week. The administration is negotiating with the Freedom Caucus to arrive on an acceptable plan.  That spells trouble for policy holders since the Caucus pushed for less coverage at greater costs than offered by the Republicans’ first try with AHSC (Trumpcare).  Trump wants a “WIN” at any cost.
BIGGER SCANDAL THAN WATERGATE IN THE WINGS ?  I think so.  Attempts to cover it up will delay findings, but there are simply too many individuals who know too much and who will surface.
      T
he “Russia situation” seems to worsen daily for President Trump and his chief strategist, Stephen Bannon.
      Look for a “Make America Great Again” advertising blitz in coming weeks, funded by the Mercers.  I am not sure it is a good idea to attract attention at this time, since the Mercers funded Breitbart News and Stephen Bannon, former head of Breitbart and currently strategic advisor to Trump. Reportedly, the FBI has expanded its investigation of collaboration to Alt-Right Breitbart News.
      According to Business Insider.com, Jared Kushner failed to disclose meeting with the CEO, Sergey N. Gorkov, of Vnesheconoombank in December 2016. The bank is Russia’sbank for “Development and Foreign Economic Affairs.  Reportedly, the bank was struggling in face of Russia’s economic woes.  Kushner was seeking investors for a Fifth Avenue office building that is reportedly set to be financed through Anbang Insurance Group, a company with ties to the Chinese government. A White House spokesman denied the New York office project was discussed.
      What then was discussed ?
      What’s worse, CNN’s national security analyst, Juliett Kayyem,  speculates that the FBI has been talking with Mike Flynn, formerly close advisor to Trump.  Flynn was forced to resign when it became apparent he was lying about dealings with Russia.
      The FBI wants to know if Breitbart and INFO Wars, another far right wing site, had a role in  Russian cyber attacks and the spread of fake news, where automated computer commands called “bots” distributed stories to the social media that were pro-Trump and anti-Clinton.
      Generally, a “bot” is designed to automate tasks, bypassing the need to do them manually.    
      The stench of the prospects of a Trump/Russia collusion increases with each disclosure and attempt to change the focus and cover the trail. 
     I still believe Paul Manafort  and Roger Stone hold the key to the puzzle, though Flynn is now in the running.  I think they know whether there was collusion or whether Trump has financial ties to Russia or Russian billionaires, direct or indirect.  Properties somewhere ?  Indirect ownership in oil properties ?  Access to money ? 
      I don’t think this gang expected to win, and as a result got careless and made some bad decisions when Russia came on the scene.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ODDS FAVOR
1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.

ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.                                                                

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Street Preps for Q1 Earnings

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 20,663
S&P 500: 2,363
Nasdaq  Comp.5,911:
Russell 2000:1,385
Monday, April  3, 2017    9:06 a.m.
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     Earnings for Q1 will be reported in coming weeks. As of December 31, Factset was projecting a gain of 12.5%.  Currently that gain has been revised down to 9.1%. For all of 2017, Factset now see a gain of 9.8% versus its projection of 11.5% at year-end.

     The S&P 500 is currently trading at 24.7 times trailing earnings and at 18.3 times earnings 12 months out.  Its 10-year average P/E is 13.9.

      The S&P 500 P/E a year ago was 23.8X, so the over valuation cannot be attributed to the massive stimulus promised by President Trump.

       Most of the current market weakness can be attributed to increasing uncertainties arising from allegations of collusion between the Trump team and Russia to rig the Presidential Election in November in favor of Trump.

       While this investigation may prove the allegations are justified and may even uncover additional wrongdoing, the proof may take many months to develop.  Then too, the Street will be slow to abandon its hope for tax cuts, deregulation, trade reform. and a big spend on the military and the nation’s infrastructure.

        In short, this is a bit like driving 75 mph in the pass lane in a deep fog with a10 yards visibility.  Betting on a massive stimulation may pay off big time, then again in may be disastrous.

         Based on allegations, I think the market is seriously overvalued.  If serious wrongdoing by the Trump team is true, worse yet, the biggest political scandal ever, the market is headed south maybe 30% – 45% down.

          If the allegations are unfounded, the Trump administration will likely execute most of its promises and the bulls be rewarded handsomely.

          I think the allegations are well founded, whether they will be proved near-to-intermediate-term is another issue.

          For investors, it is an issue of risk tolerance. What is important here is for investors to understand the magnitude of the risks.

          The Street marches to the drumbeat of computer systems programmed for a variety of possibilities. Most key on the same risk signals meaning a SELL is likely to be triggered by most simultaneously giving investors little chance to react before sustaining a significant loss.           

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SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,603;S&P :2,356; Nasdaq Comp.:5,903
RESISTANCE: “today”:DJIA:20,723;S&P500:2,367 ;NASDAQ Comp.:5,921

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CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  March 31, 2017)
Factset
Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.1%. That compares with a Q! est. on Dec. 31 of +12.5%.  2017 as a whole are projected at a plus 9.8% down from Dec. 31 estimates of 11.6%.  Currently, the P/E on trailing 12-month earnings is 19.8 x, and based on earnings 12 months out is 17.6 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 13.9. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 3/29/17 and )

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
     As of  March 29, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,413 a more extreme risk is 20,196.Near-term upside potential is 21,113
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POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
      BIGGER SCANDAL THAN WATERGATE IN THE WINGS ?  I think so.  Attempts to cover it up will delay findings, but there are simply too many individuals who know too much and who will surface.

      Yep, this will be one constitutional crisis after another with the end result a loss of Republican control of Congress in 2018.

      That’s another reason Republicans will hesitate to assist in any cover up.  Network and cable television have never had it so good, this stands to be a reality show second to none.

     Trumpcare may get another vote before the House goes home for a two week recess April 7, when they will have to face constituents.

        No telling what a compromise will look like. My guess is the public will get the short end of it.

        Not only will the representatives have to answer to Trumpcare’s failure, but tax reform may take longer than expected and the big earners stand to get a big tax break if Trumpcare is passed.

        Trump is saying he wants to bring the Democrats in on a Trumpcare compromise.  Based on everything I have been hearing since Trump entered the race, I don’t believe a word of it. I think Trump wants to be able to blame the Dems for the failure to bring it to another vote to pacify  supporters when Republican voters  go on a two week recess.

       While his base won’t concede, Trump may be brought down by his own ego, as the “Russia situation” seems to worsen daily for President Trump and his chief strategist, Stephen Bannon.

         Look for a “Make America Great Again” advertising blitz in coming weeks, funded by the Mercers.  I am not sure it is a good idea to attract attention at this time, since the Mercers funded Breitbart News and Stephen Bannon, former head of Breitbart and currently strategic advisor to Trump. Reportedly, the FBI has expanded its investigation of collaboration to Alt-Right Breitbart News.

      According to Business Insider.com, Jared Kushner failed to disclose meeting with the CEO, Sergey N. Gorkov, of Vnesheconoombank in December 2016. The bank is Russia’sbank for “Development and Foreign Economic Affairs.  Reportedly, the bank was struggling in face of Russia’s economic woes.  Kushner was seeking investors for a Fifth Avenue office building that is reportedly set to be financed through Anbang Insurance Group, a company with ties to the Chinese government. A White House spokesman denied the New York office project was discussed.

      What then was discussed ?

      What’s worse, CNN’s national security analyst, Juliett Kayyem,  speculates that the FBI has been talking with Mike Flynn, formerly close advisor to Trump.  Flynn was forced to resign when it became apparent he was lying about dealings with Russia.

      The FBI wants to know if Breitbart and INFO Wars, another far right wing site, had a role in  Russian cyber attacks and the spread of fake news, where automated computer commands called “bots” distributed stories to the social media that were pro-Trump and anti-Clinton.

      Generally, a “bot” is designed to automate tasks, bypassing the need to do them manually.    

     The stench of the prospects of a Trump/Russia collusion increases with each disclosure and attempt to change the focus and cover the trail. 

    I still believe Paul Manafort  and Roger Stone hold the key to the puzzle, though Flynn is now in the running.  I think they know whether there was collusion or whether Trump has financial ties to Russia or Russian billionaires, direct or indirect.  Properties somewhere ?  Indirect ownership in oil properties ?  Access to money ? 

      I don’t think this gang expected to win, and as a result got careless and made some bad decisions when Russia came on the scene.
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ODDS FAVOR
1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !

      Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.

ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.                                                                

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Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators: mam.econoday.com.
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George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.