Promises, Promises, Promises

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 20,981
S&P 500: 2,388
Nasdaq  Comp.:6,048
Russell 2000: 1,417
Friday, April  28, 2017    9:09 a.m.
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A lot has happened this week as the Trump administration scrambles to convince its “base” that it is serving them. One wonders if anyone else matters. This whole thing is deplorable. More than 325 million Americans have needs, that must be addresses.
        I kept the following from yesterday for new readers with a few plug-ins.
     
 A combination of a prospective 9% increase in earnings this year and sizable tax cuts has been driving stock prices off and on since the  November elections.
       This, along with  a promise of  deregulation and a big spend on the military and infrastructure has overridden President Trump’s,  alarming, divisive behavior, which raises questions about his suitability for the most powerful office in the world.  Of course, not to minimize whatever comes out of the numerous investigations into election collusion, etc.
       I can see the possibility that some of these stimulus goodies will be served up, clearly odds favor it, but there will be  resistance by Democrats, and  Republican deficit hawks, which stand to luff Trump’s sails, claiming a tax cut of this magnitude would increase the deficit.
       Treasury Secy Steve Mnuchuin defends the tax cut, saying the growth in the U.S. economy will off set it.  Right !  What about a recession that will almost certainly develop within three years, assuming this expansion tops the longest on record (120 months between Mar. 1991 – Nov. 2001) ?

       While Trump released some generalities about his tax plan, the Street was disappointed in not getting more details.
      Trump seeks a reduction in the corporate tax rate to 15% from 35% (which few pay anyhow) and an unspecified tax on repatriated overseas corporate income (probably 10%).
      Hopefully, repatriated dollars won’t be used to buy back stock, but will be used to hire and train employees and upgrade plant and equipment !
      Friday, April 28, marks the deadline for Congress to avoid a government shutdown. If Congress doesn’t vote a budget, a stopgap bill will be passed to buy time until September 30, the end of the US fiscal year. Unlike in 2013, the deadline does not coincide with the need for an increase in the debt ceiling.

     If a stopgap bill, a Continuing Resolution (CR), is not voted, parts of the U.S. government will shut down at 12:01 am, Saturday.
      Don’t rule out a surprise new healthcare proposal by Trump, something he can neatly fit into proposals advanced within his first 100 days.
TODAY

       Investors chasing anything that moves spells momentum, the strength of which will be tested by the end of the stock market’s “Best Six Months for Owning Stocks”* (Nov.1 to May 1).  That’s a seasonal phenom that has seemed to rear its ugly head frequently in the past. This is a “heads up,” not an urgent pitch to SELL.
       It doesn’t look like a repeal/replace bill for ACA will be passed this week, we’ll see.  It would be a disgrace if it was, since it would have had little committee time and cost analysis. It would simply be show biz for Trump’s first 100 days, and that disgusts me.
      Q1 GDP came in at plus 0.7 percent annualized. Softness in motor vehicle sales, consumer spending (+0.3 pct.) and weather had an impact. This compares with Q4’s plus 2.1 percent growth. The report is not expected to sway Fed policy.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20:20,876;S&P 500:2,376; Nasdaq Comp.:6,039
RESISTANCE:“today”:DJIA:21,053;S&P500:2,394;NASDAQ Comp.:6,064

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
        During their first 100 days, President Trump  spent 22 days at Mar-a-Laga, playing golf 22 times. During their first 100 days, Obama spent four days away from the White House, but did not play golf once. Is this what Trump means when he pines he inherited a mess ?
         What disturbs me is Trump dismisses his actions on ACA, immigration, his wall, sanctuary cities, etc.  as fulfilling his promises to his “base.”   Beg pardon Mr. Trump, but you are NOW the President of the United States, NOT president of a base which actually fell 2,865,075 votes short  of your opponent’s.
         A week after all this bluster to con America into thinking Trump has accomplished something in his  “first 100 days,” people will begin to ask, “What have you done for me lately ?”
……………………………………………………………………..
Can Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution be used to dump Trump ?
     
Apparently not, according to Keith Obermann, sports and political commentator, in the Feb. 3, 2017 article of “The Slatest.”  “For my money, he’s nuts – couldn’t pass a sanity test,” Obermann says, but adds Section Four of the 25th Amendment does not say ,nuts, or impaired, or erratic or unbalanced or unhealthy, or bipolar, or narcissist, or sociopath, or psychopath. It only says if the president is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.”
       The behavior of President Trump has triggered many to scramble to find ways to remove Trump from office before he does irreparable damage to the country. For them a four year wait is too long.
……………………………………………………………………..
FRANCE – Don’t Count Le Pen Out Yet
     The United States isn’t the only place, “It ain’t over until it’s over.”
  Add France to Monsieur Berra’s reach.  On Monday I said euphoria over Macron’s expected victory May 7 stands to yield to uneasiness as the gap of  support he enjoys now will narrow.  Reportedly, that is already happening on the campaign trail where Le Pen scored some points and appears to be gaining momentum. Global markets soared Monday when Le Pen failed to win the presidency on the first time around.  Victory by Le Pen raises the possibility France would pull out of the EU.
STARVE the BEAST  !
    
Trump’s plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% from 35% would trigger a $2.4 trillion shortfall in government revenues, forcing massive cuts to government programs, as well as increased taxes in other areas to offset the loss.   

     This is an opportunity of a lifetime for Republicans to fulfill their dream to devastate social programs across the board, i.e. slash government income and there is no alternative but to gut government programs. 
      It’s called “Starve The Beast,” and will result in a vast reduction in the quality of life of most Americans, especially those who put Trump in office.
      Congress will waste little time seizing an opportunity of their lifetime – to ruthlessly, senselessly and wantonly dismember a system that works well without the intrusion of Republicans.
……………………………………………………………………………….
      The rape and pillage of our federal government continues,
as Republican Thomas Massie  introduced a bill in February aimed at terminating the Department of Education effective December 31, 2018. This coincided with the Senate confirmation of Conservative Betsy DeVos, a long time advocate of school vouchers and critic of public education.

      As a budget is being developed, we can expect a major revamping of the nation’s government structure and huge cuts.
      Mick Mulvaney, director of the Office of Management and Budget plans to streamline the U.S. government structure by drastic reallocation of resources away from social “Great Society” programs to the Dept. of Defense and Homeland Security.
      Action is already underway to gut the EPA and Dept. of Education, but the administration’s efforts are bound to encounter Congressional opposition, since budget cuts and the elimination of agencies will undoubtedly have widespread impact, none the least of which may be the loss of Republican House and Senate seats in 2018.     
……………………………………………………………………
I AM KEEPING THIS ALIVE BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN UPSTAGED BY TRUMP’S 100-DAY STAMPEDE TO  SAVE FACE.
…………….

PREUTERS WORLD NEWS APRIL 19, 4:20 PM
“A Russian government think tank controlled by Vladimir Putin developed a plan to swing the 2016 U.S. presidential election to Donald Trump and undermine voters’ faith in the American electoral system, three current and four former U.S. officials told Reuters.
      Russian documents appear to confirm what U.S. intelligence agencies have believed  all along that Russia influenced the outcome of our presidential election. 
      Yesterday, Reuters released documents, which were prepared by the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies[https://en.riss/], after the election that confirm this conclusion.
      It recommended that a, “propaganda campaign on social media and Russian backed global news outlets to encourage U.S. voters to elect a president who would take a softer line toward Russia than the administration of then-President Barach Obama, the seven officials said.”
     Additionally, a second institute document recommended Russia end its pro-Trump propaganda and intensify messaging about voter fraud to undermine the U.S. electoral system’s legitimacy and damage Clinton’s reputation.
      So far, investigations by U.S. institutions and Congress have not concluded collusion between Trump’s team and Russian operatives occurred.
     But U.S. investigations are still being conducted.
     I personally believe collusion DID take place, and odds are GOOD that it reaches far beyond collusion, that based on what I see and how people in the administration are acting.
     PRESIDENTIAL RECALL ?    
     Reportedly, there is no mechanism in the U.S. Constitution that enables voters to recall at the federal level, though 19 states permit recalls at the state and local levels. Impeachment is the only recourse in the event high crimes and misdemeanors are committed.
      The truth may never be confirmed, it being so debilitating to orderly and effective governance, that it would  result in irreparable divisiveness.
      THIS COULD BE THE ULTIMATE TEST OF THE GOVERNMENT SO MANY DEDICATED PEOPLE STRIVED AND DIED FOR.

TRUMP  – TOAST ?
      Just a hunch, but I think collusion regarding influencing the election is only part of something much bigger, like major league money transfers for options on oil investments, real estate holdings, and land deals. That’s why it is taking so much time.
      If we begin to see more and more of VP Pence, it may suggest the end for Trump is getting closer. Clearly, the inside knows something is about to break.  Trump is “toast,” IMVHO.
      There are so many people who know so much, and they are going to be watching out for number ONE, and that is not Donald Trump.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  April 14, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.2%. That compares with a Q1 est. on Dec. 31 of +12.5%.  Q2 growth  is projected at +8.7%, Q3 at +8.2%, and Q4 at +12.6%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 9.7% down from Dec. 31 estimates of 11.6%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.4 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 4/13/17 and )
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  April 25, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,763 a more extreme risk is 20,396.Near-term upside potential is 21,333
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ODDS FAVOR
1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.

Conclusion: It is happening now
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.

Conclusion: It started on Easter weekend in Berkeley.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….

*Stock Trader’s Almanac
……………………………………………………………………..

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trump’s 100 Days – Bluster and Blunder

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 20,975
S&P 500: 2,387
Nasdaq  Comp.:6,025
Russell 2000: 1,419
Thursday, April  27, 2017    8:55 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
     
 A combination of a prospective 9% increase in earnings this year and sizable tax cuts has been driving stock prices off and on since the  November elections.
       This, along with  a promise of  deregulation and a big spend on the military and infrastructure has overridden President Trump’s,  alarming, divisive behavior, which raises questions about his suitability for the most powerful office in the world.  Of course, not to minimize whatever comes out of the numerous investigations into election collusion, etc.
       I can see the possibility that some of these stimulus goodies will be served up, clearly odds favor it, but there will be  resistance by Democrats, and  Republican deficit hawks, which stand to luff Trump’s sails, claiming a tax cut of this magnitude would increase the deficit.
       Treasury Secy Steve Mnuchuin defends the tax cut, saying the growth in the U.S. economy will off set it.  Right !  What about a recession that will almost certainly develop within three years, assuming this expansion tops the longest on record (120 months between Mar. 1991 – Nov. 2001) ?

       While Trump released some generalities about his tax plan, the Street was disappointed in not getting more details.
      Trump seeks a reduction in the corporate tax rate to 15% from 35% (which few pay anyhow) and an unspecified tax on repatriated overseas corporate income (probably 10%).
      Hopefully, repatriated dollars won’t be used to buy back stock, but will be used to hire and train employees and upgrade plant and equipment !
      Friday, April 28, marks the deadline for Congress to avoid a government shutdown. If Congress doesn’t vote a budget, a stopgap bill will be passed to buy time until September 30, the end of the US fiscal year. Unlike in 2013, the deadline does not coincide with the need for an increase in the debt ceiling.

     If a stopgap bill, a Continuing Resolution (CR), is not voted, parts of the U.S. government will shut down at 12:01 am, Saturday.
      Don’t rule out a surprise new healthcare proposal by Trump, something he can neatly fit into proposals advanced within his first 100 days.
TODAY

      Yesterday was kind of a “Buy the rumor, sell the news” day, where the market moved up in anticipation of an announcement on taxes, then sold off when it was released.
      The market has been shuffling along like a robot for years, because that is just what it is, bar a few instances where a flash crash requires a tweaking.
       Its behavior is increasingly dictated by investment decisions based on algorithms that are programmed among other things to measure value and potential changes thereof.
        These decisions are so universal that they can actually create a market  irregardless of issues not included in the complexity of the algo.
         All is well until something overrides the algo, usually a news event, or when some big hitters re-program their algo to account for what they suddenly see as over or under-valuation.

         I seriously doubt Trump’s tax announcement had anything to do with dressing up a chaotic “first 100 days, it just would be so uncharacteristic of him to sneak that in there before the deadline.
         Any chance of another proposal for repealing and replacing Obama’s resilient ACA ?  Bet on it coming to vote before Trump’s 100 days are up (Apr. 29), and it will be an ugly bill.
         Oh yes, – the 20% tariff on Canadian softwood lumber, the stuff that comprises up to 15% of the cost of a new home. His Apr. 25 announcement was preceded by a surge in lumber prices, which is estimated to add $1,200 to the cost of a new home.  That must smart a bit for our largest trading partner, especially since Trump claims the United States is not terminating NAFTA now. Kind of like getting punched when touching gloves before a fight.

TODAY
        Expect another stab at new highs today, boosted by the perception that a lot of things are getting done in Washington, and of course by wishful thinking that the tax cut coming will be a granddaddy.
        Investors chasing anything that moves spells momentum, the strength of which will be tested by the end of the stock market’s “Best Six Months for Owning Stocks”* (Nov.1 to May 1).  That’s a seasonal phenom that has seemed to rear its ugly head frequently in the past. This is a “heads up,” not an urgent pitch to SELL.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,857;S&P 500:2,377; Nasdaq Comp.:6,001
RESISTANCE:“today”:DJIA:;S&P500:;NASDAQ Comp.:

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
         What disturbs me is Trump dismisses his actions on ACA, immigration, his wall, sanctuary cities, etc.  as fulfilling his promises to his “base.”   Beg pardon Mr. Trump, but you are NOW the President of the United States, NOT president of a base which actually fell 2,865,075 votes short  of your opponent’s.
         A week after all this bluster to con America into thinking Trump has accomplished something in his  “first 100 days,” people will begin to ask, “What have you done for me lately ?”
……………………………………………………………………..
Can Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution be used to dump Trump ?
     
Apparently not, according to Keith Obermann, sports and political commentator, in the Feb. 3, 2017 article of “The Slatest.”  “For my money, he’s nuts – couldn’t pass a sanity test,” Obermann says, but adds Section Four of the 25th Amendment does not say ,nuts, or impaired, or erratic or unbalanced or unhealthy, or bipolar, or narcissist, or sociopath, or psychopath. It only says if the president is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.”
       The behavior of President Trump has triggered many to scramble to find ways to remove Trump from office before he does irreparable damage to the country. For them a four year wait is too long.
……………………………………………………………………..
FRANCE – Don’t Count Le Pen Out Yet
     The United States isn’t the only place, “It ain’t over until it’s over.”
 Add France to Monsieur Berra’s reach.  On Monday I said euphoria over Macron’s expected victory May 7 stands to yield to uneasiness as the gap of  support he enjoys now will narrow.  Reportedly, that is already happening on the campaign trail where Le Pen scored some points and appears to be gaining momentum. Global markets soared Monday when Le Pen failed to win the presidency on the first time around.  Victory by Le Pen raises the possibility France would pull out of the EU.
STARVE the BEAST  !
    
Trump’s plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% from 35% would trigger a $2.4 trillion shortfall in government revenues, forcing massive cuts to government programs, as well as increased taxes in other areas to offset the loss.   

     This is an opportunity of a lifetime for Republicans to fulfill their dream to devastate social programs across the board, i.e. slash government income and there is no alternative but to gut government programs. 
      It’s called “Starve The Beast,” and will result in a vast reduction in the quality of life of most Americans, especially those who put Trump in office.
      Congress will waste little time seizing an opportunity of their lifetime – to ruthlessly, senselessly and wantonly dismember a system that works well without the intrusion of Republicans.
……………………………………………………………………………….
      The rape and pillage of our federal government continues,
as Republican Thomas Massie  introduced a bill in February aimed at terminating the Department of Education effective December 31, 2018. This coincided with the Senate confirmation of Conservative Betsy DeVos, a long time advocate of school vouchers and critic of public education.

      As a budget is being developed, we can expect a major revamping of the nation’s government structure and huge cuts.
      Mick Mulvaney, director of the Office of Management and Budget plans to streamline the U.S. government structure by drastic reallocation of resources away from social “Great Society” programs to the Dept. of Defense and Homeland Security.
      Action is already underway to gut the EPA and Dept. of Education, but the administration’s efforts are bound to encounter Congressional opposition, since budget cuts and the elimination of agencies will undoubtedly have widespread impact, none the least of which may be the loss of Republican House and Senate seats in 2018.     
……………………………………………………………………
I AM KEEPING THIS ALIVE BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN UPSTAGED BY TRUMP’S 100-DAY STAMPEDE TO  SAVE FACE.
…………….

PREUTERS WORLD NEWS APRIL 19, 4:20 PM
“A Russian government think tank controlled by Vladimir Putin developed a plan to swing the 2016 U.S. presidential election to Donald Trump and undermine voters’ faith in the American electoral system, three current and four former U.S. officials told Reuters.
      Russian documents appear to confirm what U.S. intelligence agencies have believed  all along that Russia influenced the outcome of our presidential election. 
      Yesterday, Reuters released documents, which were prepared by the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies[https://en.riss/], after the election that confirm this conclusion.
      It recommended that a, “propaganda campaign on social media and Russian backed global news outlets to encourage U.S. voters to elect a president who would take a softer line toward Russia than the administration of then-President Barach Obama, the seven officials said.”
     Additionally, a second institute document recommended Russia end its pro-Trump propaganda and intensify messaging about voter fraud to undermine the U.S. electoral system’s legitimacy and damage Clinton’s reputation.
      So far, investigations by U.S. institutions and Congress have not concluded collusion between Trump’s team and Russian operatives occurred.
     But U.S. investigations are still being conducted.
     I personally believe collusion DID take place, and odds are GOOD that it reaches far beyond collusion, that based on what I see and how people in the administration are acting.
     PRESIDENTIAL RECALL ?    
     Reportedly, there is no mechanism in the U.S. Constitution that enables voters to recall at the federal level, though 19 states permit recalls at the state and local levels. Impeachment is the only recourse in the event high crimes and misdemeanors are committed.
      The truth may never be confirmed, it being so debilitating to orderly and effective governance, that it would  result in irreparable divisiveness.
      THIS COULD BE THE ULTIMATE TEST OF THE GOVERNMENT SO MANY DEDICATED PEOPLE STRIVED AND DIED FOR.

TRUMP  – TOAST ?
      Just a hunch, but I think collusion regarding influencing the election is only part of something much bigger, like major league money transfers for options on oil investments, real estate holdings, and land deals. That’s why it is taking so much time.
      If we begin to see more and more of VP Pence, it may suggest the end for Trump is getting closer. Clearly, the inside knows something is about to break.  Trump is “toast,” IMVHO.
      There are so many people who know so much, and they are going to be watching out for number ONE, and that is not Donald Trump.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  April 14, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.2%. That compares with a Q1 est. on Dec. 31 of +12.5%.  Q2 growth  is projected at +8.7%, Q3 at +8.2%, and Q4 at +12.6%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 9.7% down from Dec. 31 estimates of 11.6%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.4 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 4/13/17 and )
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  April 25, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,763 a more extreme risk is 20,396.Near-term upside potential is 21,333
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ODDS FAVOR
1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.

Conclusion: It is happening now
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.

Conclusion: It started on Easter weekend in Berkeley.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….

*Stock Trader’s Almanac
……………………………………………………………………..

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lower Taxes on Top of Higher Earnings

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 20,996
S&P 500: 2,388
Nasdaq  Comp.:6025
Russell 2000: 1,411
Wednesday, April  26, 2017    9:15 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
     
Stocks continued to surge higher yesterday, goosed by weekend news that the feared Marine Le Pen would not be elected President of France on May 7, as well as by news that a threat of a government shutdown Saturday was reduced when President Trump backed away from insisting Congress agree to funding his wall, or else.
      While the issue of tax cuts has been raised before, Trump will present an outline of his preferences today, including a reduced corporate tax rate of 15% down  from  the current rate of 35% (which few corporations pay anyhow).
      Nevertheless,  the Street is doing the math and concluding that a lower tax rate regardless of what it turns out to be combined with a projected increase  of 9% in earnings this year spells higher prices.
      Three of the 30  Dow stocks (Goldman Sachs +3.41, Caterpillar +7.61, McDonalds +7.47) accounted for 126 of the DJIA’s  232-point advance.

       Friday, April 28, marks the deadline for Congress to avoid a government shutdown. More than likely, a stopgap bill will be passed to buy time until September 30, the end of the US fiscal year. Unlike in 2013, the deadline does not coincide with the need for an increase in the debt ceiling.
      If a stopgap bill, a Continuing Resolution (CR), is not voted, parts of the U.S. government will shut down at 12:01 am, Saturday.
      Don’t rule out a surprise new healthcare proposal by Trump, something he can neatly fit into proposals advanced within his first 100 days.
      I think the decision process on the Street is so computerized, negatives and potential negatives have little effect of stock prices. That suggests any change of heart will be sudden and marked by an abrupt downdraft in stock prices that does not afford investors a chance to raise cash.
      Right now, it’s a scramble to buy anything that moves. We are almost getting to the “I can’t stand it anymore” point, where investors feel it is safe to go all-in !!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,943;S&P 500:2,389; Nasdaq Comp.:6.011
RESISTANCE:“today”:DJIA:21,098;S&P500:2,398;NASDAQ Comp.:6.049

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
Can Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution be used to dump Trump ?
     
Apparently not, according to Keith Obermann Feb. 3, 2017 in The Slatest.  “For my money, he’s nuts – couldn’t pass a sanity test,” Obermann says, but adds Section Four of the 25th Amendment does not say ,nuts, or impaired, or erratic or unbalanced or unhealthy, or bipolar, or narcissist, or sociopath, or psychopath. It only says if the president is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.”
       The behavior of President Trump has triggered many to scramble to find ways to remove Trump from office before he does irreparable damage to the country. For them a four year wait is too long.
……………………………………………………………………..
STARVE the BEAST  !
    
Trump’s plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% from 35% would trigger a $2.4 trillion shortfall in government revenues, forcing massive cuts to government programs, as well as increased taxes in other areas to offset the loss.  
      This is an opportunity of a lifetime for Republicans to fulfill their dream to devastate social programs across the board, i.e. slash government income and there is no alternative but to gut government programs. 
      It’s called “Starve The Beast,” and will result in a vast reduction in the quality of life of most Americans, especially those who put Trump in office.
      Congress will waste little time seizing an opportunity of their lifetime – to ruthlessly, senselessly and wantonly dismember a system that works well without the intrusion of Republicans.
……………………………………………………………………………….
      The rape and pillage of our federal government continues,
as Republican Thomas Massie  introduced a bill in February aimed at terminating the Department of Education effective December 31, 2018. This coincided with the Senate confirmation of Conservative Betsy DeVos, a long time advocate of school vouchers and critic of public education.

      As a budget is being developed, we can expect a major revamping of the nation’s government structure and huge cuts.
      Mick Mulvaney, director of the Office of Management and Budget plans to streamline the U.S. government structure by drastic reallocation of resources away from social “Great Society” programs to the Dept. of Defense and Homeland Security.
      Action is already underway to gut the EPA and Dept. of Education, but the administration’s efforts are bound to encounter Congressional opposition, since budget cuts and the elimination of agencies will undoubtedly have widespread impact, none the least of which may be the loss of Republican House and Senate seats in 2018.     
……………………………………………………………………

PREUTERS WORLD NEWS APRIL 19, 4:20 PM
“A Russian government think tank controlled by Vladimir Putin developed a plan to swing the 2016 U.S. presidential election to Donald Trump and undermine voters’ faith in the American electoral system, three current and four former U.S. officials told Reuters.
      Russian documents appear to confirm what U.S. intelligence agencies have believed  all along that Russia influenced the outcome of our presidential election. 
      Yesterday, Reuters released documents, which were prepared by the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies[https://en.riss/], after the election that confirm this conclusion.
      It recommended that a, “propaganda campaign on social media and Russian backed global news outlets to encourage U.S. voters to elect a president who would take a softer line toward Russia than the administration of then-President Barach Obama, the seven officials said.”
     Additionally, a second institute document recommended Russia end its pro-Trump propaganda and intensify messaging about voter fraud to undermine the U.S. electoral system’s legitimacy and damage Clinton’s reputation.
      So far, investigations by U.S. institutions and Congress have not concluded collusion between Trump’s team and Russian operatives occurred.
     But U.S. investigations are still being conducted.
     I personally believe collusion DID take place, and odds are GOOD that it reaches far beyond collusion, that based on what I see and how people in the administration are acting.
     PRESIDENTIAL RECALL ?    
     Reportedly, there is no mechanism in the U.S. Constitution that enables voters to recall at the federal level, though 19 states permit recalls at the state and local levels. Impeachment is the only recourse in the event high crimes and misdemeanors are committed.
      The truth may never be confirmed, it being so debilitating to orderly and effective governance, that it would  result in irreparable divisiveness.
      THIS COULD BE THE ULTIMATE TEST OF THE GOVERNMENT SO MANY DEDICATED PEOPLE STRIVED AND DIED FOR.

TRUMP  – TOAST ?
      Just a hunch, but I think collusion regarding influencing the election is only part of something much bigger, like major league money transfers for options on oil investments, real estate holdings, and land deals. That’s why it is taking so much time.
      If we begin to see more and more of VP Pence, it may suggest the end for Trump is getting closer. Clearly, the inside knows something is about to break.  Trump is “toast,” IMVHO.
      There are so many people who know so much, and they are going to be watching out for number ONE, and that is not Donald Trump.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  April 14, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.2%. That compares with a Q1 est. on Dec. 31 of +12.5%.  Q2 growth  is projected at +8.7%, Q3 at +8.2%, and Q4 at +12.6%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 9.7% down from Dec. 31 estimates of 11.6%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.4 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 4/13/17 and )
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  April 25, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,763 a more extreme risk is 20,396.Near-term upside potential is 21,333
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ODDS FAVOR
1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.

Conclusion: It is happening now
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.

Conclusion: It started on Easter weekend in Berkeley.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Temptation To Go All-In

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 20,782
S&P 500: 2,374
Nasdaq  Comp.:5,983
Russell 2000:1,397
Tuesday, April  25, 2017    9:15 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
      Stocks surged yesterday,
following the first round of voting for the presidency in France on Sunday, which now moves  centrist Emmaneul Macron and right wing, nationalist Marine Le Pen to a runoff on May 7.
      Macron is currently the favorite to win by a wide margin, a poll showing a 62 percent to 38 percent edge for Macron.  While a Macron victory would be a rejection of the anti-establishment , Brexit, Trump mentality, it won’t go away and stands to  plague Macron going forward.
       What’s more, the present euphoria stands to yield to uneasiness as the gap of support Macron enjoys now may narrow as the May 7, election day approaches. Even so, Macron’s lead is bolstered by support from the other candidates running, except ultra left’s Melenchon.
      Over the weekend Trump announced he will introduce his tax proposal on Wednesday, though OMB director, Mick Mulvaney, says details won’t be available until June. Trump’s announcement comes days before the end of his first 100 days in office. 
     Rumors indicate Trump will seek a corporate tax cut to 15%, though that’s just a starting point.
      The big question is how does a government fund its operations if it reduces revenues it receives ?
      Trump’s answer – the resulting growth in the economy will offset the shortfall.
      Nonsense ! 
      Friday, April 28, marks the deadline for Congress to avoid a government shutdown. More than likely, a stopgap bill will be passed to buy time until September 30, the end of the US fiscal year. Unlike in 2013, the deadline does not coincide with the need for an increase in the debt ceiling.

     If a stopgap bill, a Continuing Resolution (CR), is not voted, parts of the U.S. government will shut down at 12:01 am, Saturday.
     Trump is threatening to shut the government down unless the Democrats agree to at least partially fund his wall.  He is also threatening to withhold subsidies for ACA policy holders unless Democrats agree to his terms for repealing and replacing ACA, as well as fund his wall.
      The Dept. of Homeland Security estimates the wall will cost $21.6 billion, though some estimates run much higher.  
      The Republican’s would love to force the Democrats to be the ones to cause a shutdown by not agreeing to fund Trump’s wall, but with control of the White House and  Congress, the Republicans would get blamed for a shutdown on their watch.
      If the CR route is taken, progress on Trump’s tax plan will be put on hold.
      Additionally, the Republicans may  introduce yet another proposal to repeal/replace ACA before Saturday, just so it is listed on Trump’s 100-day achievements.
      Expect a lot of self-serving TWEETS from the White House this week !
TODAY
      Stocks gapped at the open yesterday on news that Marine Le Pen is unlikely to win the runoff for the Presidency of France May 7. A victory by her would raise odds of a French withdrawal from the EU, which could set the stage for the unravelling of the  European Union alliance.
      I think the prospect of a corporate tax cut  to 15% from 35% also contributed to the euphoria. Corporate taxes will be cut sooner or later, and the Street doesn’t care when.
      If that’s not enough for the Street to digest, there is also North Korea.
      The Nasdaq Composite soared to new highs, the DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are not far from doing so, as well. The technical pattern for all four has improved from one that was weakening.
      I think the decision process on the Street is so computerized, negatives and potential negatives have little effect of stock prices. That suggests any change of heart will be sudden and marked by an abrupt downdraft in stock prices that does not afford investors a chance to raise cash.
      Right now, it’s a scramble to buy anything that moves. We are almost getting to the “I can’t stand it anymore” point, where investors feel it is safe to go all-in !!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,740;S&P 500:2,371; Nasdaq Comp.:5,981
RESISTANCE:“today”:DJIA:20,661;S&P500:2,363;NASDAQ Comp.:5,856

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
STARVE the BEAST  !
    
Trump’s plan to cut the corporate tax rate to 15% from 35% would trigger a $2.4 trillion shortfall in government revenues, forcing massive cuts to government programs, as well as increased taxes in other areas to offset the loss.   

     This is an opportunity of a lifetime for Republicans to fulfill their dream to devastate social programs across the board, i.e. slash government income and there is no alternative but to gut government programs. 
      It’s called “Starve The Beast,” and will result in a vast reduction in the quality of life of most Americans, especially those who put Trump in office.
      Congress will waste little time seizing an opportunity of their lifetime – to ruthlessly, senselessly and wantonly dismember a system that works well without the intrusion of Republicans.
      The rape and pillage of our federal government continues, as Republican Thomas Massie  introduced a bill in February aimed at terminating the Department of Education effective December 31, 2018. This coincided with the Senate confirmation of Conservative Betsy DeVos, a long time advocate of school vouchers and critic of public education.

      As a budget is being developed, we can expect a major revamping of the nation’s government structure and huge cuts.
      Mick Mulvaney, director of the Office of Management and Budget plans to streamline the U.S. government structure by drastic reallocation of resources away from social “Great Society” programs to the Dept. of Defense and Homeland Security.
      Action is already underway to gut the EPA and Dept. of Education, but the administration’s efforts are bound to encounter Congressional opposition, since budget cuts and the elimination of agencies will undoubtedly have widespread impact, none the least of which may be the loss of Republican House and Senate seats in 2018.
……………………………………………………………………………..     
    
Last Thursday, dozens of psychiatrists met at Yale University, concluding they have an ethical responsibility to warn Americans that in their opinion President Trump  is not fit to be president, that he is paranoid and delusional.
     Really ?
……………………………………………………………………

PREUTERS WORLD NEWS APRIL 19, 4:20 PM
“A Russian government think tank controlled by Vladimir Putin developed a plan to swing the 2016 U.S. presidential election to Donald Trump and undermine voters’ faith in the American electoral system, three current and four former U.S. officials told Reuters.
      Russian documents appear to confirm what U.S. intelligence agencies have believed  all along that Russia influenced the outcome of our presidential election. 
      Yesterday, Reuters released documents, which were prepared by the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies[https://en.riss/], after the election that confirm this conclusion.
      It recommended that a, “propaganda campaign on social media and Russian backed global news outlets to encourage U.S. voters to elect a president who would take a softer line toward Russia than the administration of then-President Barach Obama, the seven officials said.”
     Additionally, a second institute document recommended Russia end its pro-Trump propaganda and intensify messaging about voter fraud to undermine the U.S. electoral system’s legitimacy and damage Clinton’s reputation.
      So far, investigations by U.S. institutions and Congress have not concluded collusion between Trump’s team and Russian operatives occurred.
     But U.S. investigations are still being conducted.
     I personally believe collusion DID take place, and odds are GOOD that it reaches far beyond collusion, that based on what I see and how people in the administration are acting.
     PRESIDENTIAL RECALL ?    
     Reportedly, there is no mechanism in the U.S. Constitution that enables voters to recall at the federal level, though 19 states permit recalls at the state and local levels. Impeachment is the only recourse in the event high crimes and misdemeanors are committed.
      The truth may never be confirmed, it being so debilitating to orderly and effective governance, that it would  result in irreparable divisiveness.
      THIS COULD BE THE ULTIMATE TEST OF THE GOVERNMENT SO MANY DEDICATED PEOPLE STRIVED AND DIED FOR.

TRUMP  – TOAST ?
      Just a hunch, but I think collusion regarding influencing the election is only part of something much bigger, like major league money transfers for options on oil investments, real estate holdings, and land deals. That’s why it is taking so much time.
      If we begin to see more and more of VP Pence, it may suggest the end for Trump is getting closer. Clearly, the inside knows something is about to break.  Trump is “toast,” IMVHO.
      There are so many people who know so much, and they are going to be watching out for number ONE, and that is not Donald Trump.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  April 14, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.2%. That compares with a Q1 est. on Dec. 31 of +12.5%.  Q2 growth  is projected at +8.7%, Q3 at +8.2%, and Q4 at +12.6%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 9.7% down from Dec. 31 estimates of 11.6%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.4 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 4/13/17 and )
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  March 29, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,413 a more extreme risk is 20,196.Near-term upside potential is 20,676
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ODDS FAVOR
1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.

Conclusion: It is happening now
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.

Conclusion: It started on Easter weekend in Berkeley.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Big Week -Tax Plan, Shutdown, etc.

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 20,547
S&P 500: 2,348
Nasdaq  Comp.:5,910
Russell 2000:5,910
Monday, April  24, 2017    9:15 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
      Stock markets and bond markets here and abroad will be up today following the first round of voting for the presidency in France Sunday, moving centrist Emmaneul Macron and right wing, nationalist Marine Le Pen to the runoff on May 7.

      Macron is currently the favorite to win by a wide margin, a poll showing a 62 percent to 38 percent edge for Macron.  The French CAC 40, the German DAX and Euro Stoxx surged after the results were known with banks the biggest winners.  Safe havens, gold, the yen, Treasuries and German bunds slid.
      While a Macron victory would be a rejection of the anti-establishment , Brexit, Trump mentality, it won’t go away and plague Macron going forward.
       What’s more the present euphoria stands to yield to uneasiness as the gap of support Macron enjoys now will narrow as the May 7, election day. approaches.
TODAY

      Stock index futures indicate a surge at the open, possibly 150 – 200 Dow points.
      A good portion of that is the French vote, but the Street’s spirits were picked up over the weekend with Trump’s announcement that he will introduce his tax proposal this Wednesday, though OMB director, Mick Mulvaney, says details won’t be available until June.
      That announcement  precedes the Friday, April 28, deadline for Congress to avoid a government shutdown. More than likely, a stopgap bill will be passed to buy time. Unlike in 2013, the deadline does not coincide with the need for an increase in the debt ceiling.
      Complicating the deadline would be an ultimatum for Democrats to approve funding for Trump’s WALL. The Republican’s would love to force a shutdown by the Democrats who are opposed to spending tens of billions of dollars on the wall at the expense of numerous government programs that benefit a broad sector of the population.
      Trump is totally focused on how his first 100 days will be reported, and can be expected to stop at nothing to salvage what is shaping up to be a disgraceful demonstration of untethered egomaniacostracity.
       This is a dangerous spike in prices to buy all but very selectively.
  >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,511;S&P 500:2,346; Nasdaq Comp.:5,904
RESISTANCE:“today”:DJIA:20,656;S&P500:2,363;NASDAQ Comp.:5,941

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
     Last Thursday, dozens of psychiatrists met at Yale University, concluding they have an ethical responsibility to warn Americans that in their opinion President Trump  is not fit to be president, that he is paranoid and delusional.
     Really ?

PREUTERS WORLD NEWS APRIL 19, 4:20 PM
“A Russian government think tank controlled by Vladimir Putin developed a plan to swing the 2016 U.S. presidential election to Donald Trump and undermine voters’ faith in the American electoral system, three current and four former U.S. officials told Reuters.
      Russian documents appear to confirm what U.S. intelligence agencies have believed  all along that Russia influenced the outcome of our presidential election. 
      Yesterday, Reuters released documents, which were prepared by the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies[https://en.riss/], after the election that confirm this conclusion.
      It recommended that a, “propaganda campaign on social media and Russian backed global news outlets to encourage U.S. voters to elect a president who would take a softer line toward Russia than the administration of then-President Barach Obama, the seven officials said.”
     Additionally, a second institute document recommended Russia end its pro-Trump propaganda and intensify messaging about voter fraud to undermine the U.S. electoral system’s legitimacy and damage Clinton’s reputation.
      So far, investigations by U.S. institutions and Congress have not concluded collusion between Trump’s team and Russian operatives occurred.
     But U.S. investigations are still being conducted.
     I personally believe collusion DID take place, and odds are GOOD that it reaches far beyond collusion, that based on what I see and how people in the administration are acting.
     PRESIDENTIAL RECALL ?    
     Reportedly, there is no mechanism in the U.S. Constitution that enables voters to recall at the federal level, though 19 states permit recalls at the state and local levels. Impeachment is the only recourse in the event high crimes and misdemeanors are committed.
      The truth may never be confirmed, it being so debilitating to orderly and effective governance, that it would  result in irreparable divisiveness.
      THIS COULD BE THE ULTIMATE TEST OF THE GOVERNMENT SO MANY DEDICATED PEOPLE STRIVED AND DIED FOR.

……………………………………………………………………………….
PENCE IN INTERNATIONAL SPOPTLIGHT – WHAT”S UP ?
       Now it’s VP Pence’s turn to talk tough. Wednesday, he addressed American troops aboard the USS Ronald Reagan where stated, “The United States of America will always seek peace, but under President Trump, the shield stands guard and the sword stands ready.” That’s another way of saying negotiate, or else.
       It could be significant that Pence is the one out there, not Trump.   Are they preparing for the possibility of scandalous  news on Trump breaking, but don’t know when ?

TRUMP  – TOAST ?
      
Monday, President Trump slammed the media with a tweet, “The fake media has gotten even worse since the election. Every story is badly slanted. We have to hold them to the truth.”
      He has referred to the investigation of collusion between the Trump team and Russians to skew the election in his favor as, a “phony story,” a “total scam.”
      Sounds like he is setting the stage for news releases indicating collusion.  Really, why would the President of the United States take time early in the day with other things on his plate, to tweet this kind of rubbish ?

      Just a hunch, but I think collusion regarding influencing the election is only part of something much bigger, like major league money transfers for options on oil investments, real estate holdings, land deals.That’s why it is taking so much time.
      If we begin to see more and more of VP Pence, it may suggest the end for Trump is getting closer. Clearly, the inside knows something is about to break.  Trump is “toast,” IMVHO.
      There are so many people who know so much, and they are going to be watching out for number ONE, and that is not Donald Trump.
…………………………………………………………………
      While President Trump has moderated on some of his campaign rhetoric, he is unpredictable and unqualified to make decisions at this level, but Congress will waste little time seizing an opportunity of their lifetime – to ruthlessly, senselessly and wantonly dismember a system that works well without the intrusion of Republicans.
      The rape and pillage of our federal government continues, as Republican Thomas Massie  introduced a bill in February aimed at terminating the Department of Education effective December 31, 2018. This coincided with the Senate confirmation of Conservative Betsy DeVos, a long time advocate of school vouchers and critic of public education.

      As a budget is being developed, we can expect a major revamping of the nation’s government structure and huge cuts.
      Mick Mulvaney, director of the Office of Management and Budget plans to streamline the U.S. government structure by drastic reallocation of resources away from social “Great Society” programs to the Dept. of Defense and Homeland Security.
      Action is already underway to gut the EPA and Dept. of Education, but the administration’s efforts are bound to encounter Congressional opposition, since budget cuts and the elimination of agencies will undoubtedly have widespread impact, none the least of which may be the loss of Republican House and Senate seats in 2018.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  April 14, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.2%. That compares with a Q1 est. on Dec. 31 of +12.5%.  Q2 growth  is projected at +8.7%, Q3 at +8.2%, and Q4 at +12.6%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 9.7% down from Dec. 31 estimates of 11.6%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.4 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 4/13/17 and )
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  March 29, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,413 a more extreme risk is 20,196.Near-term upside potential is 20,676
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ODDS FAVOR
1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.

Conclusion: It is happening now
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.

Conclusion: It started on Easter weekend in Berkeley.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bank, Energy Earnings to Disappoint ?

Bank, Energy Earnings to Disappoint ?

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 20,578
S&P 500: 2,355
Nasdaq  Comp.5,916:
Russell 2000:1,384
Friday, April  21, 2017    8:55 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

      Another foray into the market similar to the six that preceded it since late February. Institutions have cash to invest, but have been reluctant to buy aggressively. 
      Obviously, the major driver of the post-election surge in prices has been Trump’s promise of a massive stimulus, but expectations for a strong rebound in earnings this year is part of that, as well.
      Factset projects a 9.2% rebound in the S&P 500 earnings for Q1 and 9.7% growth for the year. Based on that, the S&P 500 sells at 17.4 times earnings, well above the 10-year average.
      But Q1 projections are down from year-end growth projections of 12.5%, and a report today on Bloomberg Markets (Lu Wang) points out that growth rate may have to be revised down further, since its big contributor, bank and energy industry earnings may fall short of the mark.
       If the Street hangs tough on the Trump stimulus, an earnings growth shortfall won’t have much impact, however any major delay in passing tax cuts, deregulation and a big spend on the military and/or infrastructure would impact stocks significantly.

     Worth noting, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. have logged in four straight days where the lows for the day were higher than the preceding day.  However, yesterday was the first day the DJIA’s low was higher than the preceding day.
      One reason for the DJIA’s lag is IBM and Goldman Sachs which until yesterday cost the DJIA 122 points over four days.
      The DJIA is a price-weighted average, whereas the other two are market value weighted making the DJIA more susceptible to distortion.
      During the period IBM lost 8.53 points, Goldman lost 9.23, or 17.76 totaled. Divide that by the Dow divisor 0.14602 and you get the 122.
TODAY
      The Street is still focused on a stimulus with earnings growth as a kicker. That can change “if” the  assumptions that make up the algos are changed. My guess is most analysts would do that simultaneously leading to an abrupt plunge in prices in an already overpriced market. Without a change, the market can trade even higher.     
  >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,507;S&P 500:2,348; Nasdaq Comp.:5,883
RESISTANCE:“today”:DJIA:20,642;S&P500:2,363;NASDAQ Comp.:5,941

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
REUTERS WORLD NEWS APRIL 19, 4:20 PM
“A Russian government think tank controlled by Vladimir Putin developed a plan to swing the 2016 U.S. presidential election to Donald Trump and undermine voters’ faith in the American electoral system, three current and four former U.S. officials told Reuters.
      Russian documents appear to confirm what U.S. intelligence agencies have believed  all along that Russia influenced the outcome of our presidential election. 
      Yesterday, Reuters released documents, which were prepared by the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies[https://en.riss/], after the election that confirm this conclusion.
      It recommended that a, “propaganda campaign on social media and Russian backed global news outlets to encourage U.S. voters to elect a president who would take a softer line toward Russia than the administration of then-President Barach Obama, the seven officials said.”
     Additionally, a second institute document recommended Russia end its pro-Trump propaganda and intensify messaging about voter fraud to undermine the U.S. electoral system’s legitimacy and damage Clinton’s reputation.
      So far, investigations by U.S. institutions and Congress have not concluded collusion between Trump’s team and Russian operatives occurred.
     But U.S. investigations are still being conducted.
     I personally believe collusion DID take place, and odds are GOOD that it reaches far beyond collusion, that based on what I see and how people in the administration are acting.
     PRESIDENTIAL RECALL ?    
     Reportedly, there is no mechanism in the U.S. Constitution that enables voters to recall at the federal level, though 19 states permit recalls at the state and local levels. Impeachment is the only recourse in the event high crimes and misdemeanors are committed.
      The truth may never be confirmed, it being so debilitating to orderly and effective governance, that it would  result in irreparable divisiveness.
      THIS COULD BE THE ULTIMATE TEST OF THE GOVERNMENT SO MANY DEDICATED PEOPLE STRIVED AND DIED FOR.

……………………………………………………………………………….
PENCE IN INTERNATIONAL SPOPTLIGHT – WHAT”S UP ?
       Now it’s VP Pence’s turn to talk tough. Wednesday, he addressed American troops aboard the USS Ronald Reagan where stated, “The United States of America will always seek peace, but under President Trump, the shield stands guard and the sword stands ready.” That’s another way of saying negotiate, or else.
       It could be significant that Pence is the one out there, not Trump.   Are they preparing for the possibility of scandalous  news on Trump breaking, but don’t know when ?

TRUMP  – TOAST ?
      
Monday, President Trump slammed the media with a tweet, “The fake media has gotten even worse since the election. Every story is badly slanted. We have to hold them to the truth.”
      He has referred to the investigation of collusion between the Trump team and Russians to skew the election in his favor as, a “phony story,” a “total scam.”
      Sounds like he is setting the stage for news releases indicating collusion.  Really, why would the President of the United States take time early in the day with other things on his plate, to tweet this kind of rubbish ?

      Just a hunch, but I think collusion regarding influencing the election is only part of something much bigger, like major league money transfers for options on oil investments, real estate holdings, land deals.That’s why it is taking so much time.
      If we begin to see more and more of VP Pence, it may suggest the end for Trump is getting closer. Clearly, the inside knows something is about to break.  Trump is “toast,” IMVHO.
      There are so many people who know so much, and they are going to be watching out for number ONE, and that is not Donald Trump.
…………………………………………………………………
      While President Trump has moderated on some of his campaign rhetoric, he is unpredictable and unqualified to make decisions at this level, but Congress will waste little time seizing an opportunity of their lifetime – to ruthlessly, senselessly and wantonly dismember a system that works well without the intrusion of Republicans.
      The rape and pillage of our federal government continues, as Republican Thomas Massie  introduced a bill in February aimed at terminating the Department of Education effective December 31, 2018. This coincided with the Senate confirmation of Conservative Betsy DeVos, a long time advocate of school vouchers and critic of public education.

      As a budget is being developed, we can expect a major revamping of the nation’s government structure and huge cuts.
      Mick Mulvaney, director of the Office of Management and Budget plans to streamline the U.S. government structure by drastic reallocation of resources away from social “Great Society” programs to the Dept. of Defense and Homeland Security.
      Action is already underway to gut the EPA and Dept. of Education, but the administration’s efforts are bound to encounter Congressional opposition, since budget cuts and the elimination of agencies will undoubtedly have widespread impact, none the least of which may be the loss of Republican House and Senate seats in 2018.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  April 14, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.2%. That compares with a Q1 est. on Dec. 31 of +12.5%.  Q2 growth  is projected at +8.7%, Q3 at +8.2%, and Q4 at +12.6%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 9.7% down from Dec. 31 estimates of 11.6%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.4 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 4/13/17 and )
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  March 29, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,413 a more extreme risk is 20,196.Near-term upside potential is 20,676
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ODDS FAVOR
1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.

Conclusion: It is happening now
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.

Conclusion: It started on Easter weekend in Berkeley.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Run the Table, or Run For the Hills ?

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 20,404
S&P 500: 2,338
Nasdaq  Comp.:5,863
Russell 2000:1,367
Thursday, April  20, 2017    5:52 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
     
The DJIA was down more yesterday than the other major market averages, however 59 of the 118 points lost were due to a 8.36-point drop in one of its 30 components, IBM.
      Over all, the market is still locked in a slight sideways-to-down slide.
      The Street will focus on earnings, and of course the hopes for a massive stimulus, which ironically is scheduled to come after an eight-year bull market and economic recovery.  What will our government do when a recession hits ?
       Are we finally looking at that elusive new era everyone has chased for years ?
       Careful what you wish for.
       Bull markets have historically had one last gasp run where speculation runs rampant and stocks reach absurd levels.
       That can still happen, so can a “flash crash.”
       One risk here is that the stimulus won’t happen, or will be a ho-hummer.
      The other risk is the Trump administration will go down in flames (see Reuters below).
  >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,347;S&P 500:2,329; Nasdaq Comp.:5,846
RESISTANCE:“today”:DJIA:20,476;S&P500:2,342;NASDAQ Comp.:5,873

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
REUTERS WORLD NEWS APRIL 19, 4:20 PM
“A Russian government think tank controlled by Vladimir Putin developed a plan to swing the 2016 U.S. presidential election to Donald Trump and undermine voters’ faith in the American electoral system, three current and four former U.S. officials told Reuters.
      Russian documents appear to confirm what U.S. intelligence agencies have believed  all along that Russia influenced the outcome of our presidential election. 
      Yesterday, Reuters released documents, which were prepared by the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies[https://en.riss/], after the election that confirm this conclusion.
      It recommended that a, “propaganda campaign on social media and Russian backed global news outlets to encourage U.S. voters to elect a president who would take a softer line toward Russia than the administration of then-President Barach Obama, the seven officials said.”
     Additionally, a second institute document recommended Russia end its pro-Trump propaganda and intensify messaging about voter fraud to undermine the U.S. electoral system’s legitimacy and damage Clinton’s reputation.
      So far, investigations by U.S. institutions and Congress have not concluded collusion between Trump’s team and Russian operatives occurred.
     But U.S. investigations are still being conducted.
     I personally believe collusion DID take place, and odds are GOOD that it reaches far beyond collusion, that based on what I see and how people in the administration are acting.
     PRESIDENTIAL RECALL ?    
     Reportedly, there is no mechanism in the U.S. Constitution that enables voters to recall at the federal level, though 19 states permit recalls at the state and local levels. Impeachment is the only recourse in the event high crimes and misdemeanors are committed.
      The truth may never be confirmed, it being so debilitating to orderly and effective governance, that it would  result in irreparable divisiveness.
      THIS COULD BE THE ULTIMATE TEST OF THE GOVERNMENT SO MANY DEDICATED PEOPLE STRIVED AND DIED FOR.

……………………………………………………………………………….
PENCE IN INTERNATIONAL SPOPTLIGHT – WHAT”S UP ?
       Now it’s VP Pence’s turn to talk tough. Wednesday, he addressed American troops aboard the USS Ronald Reagan where stated, “The United States of America will always seek peace, but under President Trump, the shield stands guard and the sword stands ready.” That’s another way of saying negotiate, or else.
       It could be significant that Pence is the one out there, not Trump.   Are they preparing for the possibility of scandalous  news on Trump breaking, but don’t know when ?

TRUMP  – TOAST ?
     
Monday, President Trump slammed the media with a tweet, “The fake media has gotten even worse since the election. Every story is badly slanted. We have to hold them to the truth.”
      He has referred to the investigation of collusion between the Trump team and Russians to skew the election in his favor as, a “phony story,” a “total scam.”
      Sounds like he is setting the stage for news releases indicating collusion.  Really, why would the President of the United States take time early in the day with other things on his plate, to tweet this kind of rubbish ?

      Just a hunch, but I think collusion regarding influencing the election is only part of something much bigger, like major league money transfers for options on oil investments, real estate holdings, land deals.That’s why it is taking so much time.
      If we begin to see more and more of VP Pence, it may suggest the end for Trump is getting closer. Clearly, the inside knows something is about to break.  Trump is “toast,” IMVHO.
      There are so many people who know so much, and they are going to be watching out for number ONE, and that is not Donald Trump.
…………………………………………………………………
      While President Trump has moderated on some of his campaign rhetoric, he is unpredictable and unqualified to make decisions at this level, but Congress will waste little time seizing an opportunity of their lifetime – to ruthlessly, senselessly and wantonly dismember a system that works well without the intrusion of Republicans.
      The rape and pillage of our federal government continues, as Republican Thomas Massie  introduced a bill in February aimed at terminating the Department of Education effective December 31, 2018. This coincided with the Senate confirmation of Conservative Betsy DeVos, a long time advocate of school vouchers and critic of public education.

      As a budget is being developed, we can expect a major revamping of the nation’s government structure and huge cuts.
      Mick Mulvaney, director of the Office of Management and Budget plans to streamline the U.S. government structure by drastic reallocation of resources away from social “Great Society” programs to the Dept. of Defense and Homeland Security.
      Action is already underway to gut the EPA and Dept. of Education, but the administration’s efforts are bound to encounter Congressional opposition, since budget cuts and the elimination of agencies will undoubtedly have widespread impact, none the least of which may be the loss of Republican House and Senate seats in 2018.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  April 14, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.2%. That compares with a Q1 est. on Dec. 31 of +12.5%.  Q2 growth  is projected at +8.7%, Q3 at +8.2%, and Q4 at +12.6%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 9.7% down from Dec. 31 estimates of 11.6%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.4 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 4/13/17 and )
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  March 29, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,413 a more extreme risk is 20,196.Near-term upside potential is 20,676
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ODDS FAVOR
1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.

Conclusion: It is happening now
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.

Conclusion: It started on Easter weekend in Berkeley.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

Can Q1 Earnings Goose Market ?

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 20,523
S&P 500: 2,342
Nasdaq  Comp.:5,899
Russell 2000:1,361
Wednesday, April  19, 2017    9:06 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

      As expected, yesterday’s market sold off in early trading, then rallied until Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin indicated  failure to reach decision on the repeal and replacement  of  ACA would delay tax reform beyond August.
      Tax cuts are the cornerstone of the Trump administration’s massive stimulus.
Delay naturally casts a pall on the Street’s hopes for an extension of the dramatic Obama bull market and economic recovery that rose out of a global meltdown causing the worst recession (2007 – 2009) since the 1930s.
       Delays in Trump’s stimulus are only part of the Street’s problems. Syria and North Korea weigh heavily on investor sentiment, as well as, the credibility of the Trump administration regarding collusion with Russian officials to skew the election in Trump’s favor, and other ethics issues, including his refusal to release his tax returns.
       Q1 GDP will likely suffer from a slow liftoff by the economy in 2017, including a slowdown in motor vehicle sales.  Corporate earnings for Q1 are now being released. While projected to be positive, their growth rate has been downgraded since year-end.
      To its credit, the market hangs tough with the S&P 500 down only 2.4% since its all-time high on February 28.
       The Street still believes in Santa Claus…….or until it discovers the half-eaten cookie on the fireplace mantle was just an attempt to deceive them.
TODAY
      Look for a spike up in early trading in line with the stop-and-go pattern we have been seeing since late February.  The key here is, can it hold and lead to a more meaningful surge, powered by Q1 earnings reports, more importantly, corporate guidance and Street projections for 2017 ? (see Corporate Earnings below).
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,507;S&P 500:2,340; Nasdaq Comp.:5,843
RESISTANCE:“today”:DJIA:20,588;S&P500:2,347;NASDAQ Comp.:5,863

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
Trump – “toast” ?
     
Monday, President Trump slammed the media with a tweet, “The fake media has gotten even worse since the election. Every story is badly slanted. We have to hold them to the truth.”
      He has referred to the investigation of collusion between the Trump team and Russians to skew the election in his favor as, a “phony story,” a “total scam.”
      Sounds like he is setting the stage for news releases indicating collusion.  Really, why would the President of the United States take time early in the day with other things on his plate, to tweet this kind of rubbish ?

      Just a hunch, but I think collusion regarding influencing the election is only part of something much bigger, like major league money transfers for options on oil investments, real estate holdings, land deals.That’s why it is taking so much time.
      If we begin to see more and more of VP Pence, it may suggest the end for Trump is getting closer. Clearly, the inside knows something is about to break.  Trump is “toast,” IMVHO.
      There are so many people who know so much, and they are going to be watching out for number ONE, and that is not Donald Trump.
…………………………………………………………………
      While President Trump has moderated on some of his campaign rhetoric, he is unpredictable and unqualified to make decisions at this level, but Congress will waste little time seizing an opportunity of their lifetime – to ruthlessly, senselessly and wantonly dismember a system that works well without the intrusion of Republicans.
      The rape and pillage of our federal government continues, as Republican Thomas Massie  introduced a bill in February aimed at terminating the Department of Education effective December 31, 2018. This coincided with the Senate confirmation of Conservative Betsy DeVos, a long time advocate of school vouchers and critic of public education.

      As a budget is being developed, we can expect a major revamping of the nation’s government structure and huge cuts.
      Mick Mulvaney, director of the Office of Management and Budget plans to streamline the U.S. government structure by drastic reallocation of resources away from social “Great Society” programs to the Dept. of Defense and Homeland Security.
      Action is already underway to gut the EPA and Dept. of Education, but the administration’s efforts are bound to encounter Congressional opposition, since budget cuts and the elimination of agencies will undoubtedly have widespread impact, none the least of which may be the loss of Republican House and Senate seats in 2018.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  April 14, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.2%. That compares with a Q1 est. on Dec. 31 of +12.5%.  Q2 growth  is projected at +8.7%, Q3 at +8.2%, and Q4 at +12.6%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 9.7% down from Dec. 31 estimates of 11.6%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.4 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 4/13/17 and )
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  March 29, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,413 a more extreme risk is 20,196.Near-term upside potential is 20,676
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ODDS FAVOR
1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.

Conclusion: It is happening now
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.

Conclusion: It started on Easter weekend in Berkeley.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trump “Toast” ? Just a Matter of When

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 20,636
S&P 500: 2,349
Nasdaq  Comp.5,856:
Russell 2000:1,361
Tuesday, April  18, 2017    8:54 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    
As expected, the market rebounded sharply from Friday’s test of the March lows. For the DJIA and S&P 500, that was a 50% retracement of the January to February surge, for the Nasdaq Comp., it was a 30% retracement.
      Obviously, the Street has not given up on Trump’s promise for a massive stimulus, though the timing is harder to nail down.
      The market has trended sideways-to-down since late February, a consolidation that weeds out profit takers and nervous investors, generally a positive sign.
      What the bulls need is an indication that Congress will begin to address tax reform in the fall, as well as provide the Street with details on who gets the big spend, infrastructure or defense ?
       Currently, it looks like the military is an easier sell.
       The entire 8-year, 260% bull market has resisted a host of negatives and uncertainties, which must be attributed to the successful rescue operations from the 2007 – 2009 meltdown and a low interest rate policy by the Fed, offering little alternative for investors but to buy stocks.
TODAY
      Expect a pullback in early trading, then an attempt to extend yesterday’s rally.       

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,576;S&P 500:2,340; Nasdaq Comp.:5,546
RESISTANCE:“today”:DJIA:20,676 ;S&P500:2,361 ;NASDAQ Comp.:5,871

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
Trump – “toast” ?
     
Monday, President Trump slammed the media with a tweet, “The fake media has gotten even worse since the election. Every story is badly slanted. We have to hold them to the truth.”
      He has referred to the investigation of collusion between the Trump team and Russians to skew the election in his favor as, a “phony story,” a “total scam.”
      Sounds like he is setting the stage for news releases indicating collusion.  Really, why would the President of the United States take time early in the day with other things on his plate, to tweet this kind of rubbish ?

      Just a hunch, but I think collusion regarding influencing the election is only part of something much bigger, like major league money transfers for options on oil investments, real estate holdings, land deals.That’s why it is taking so much time.
      If we begin to see more and more of VP Pence, it may suggest the end for Trump is getting closer. Clearly, the inside knows something is about to break.  Trump is “toast,” IMVHO.
      There are so many people who know so much, and they are going to be watching out for number ONE, and that is not Donald Trump.
…………………………………………………………………
      While President Trump has moderated on some of his campaign rhetoric, he is unpredictable and unqualified to make decisions at this level, but Congress will waste little time seizing an opportunity of their lifetime – to ruthlessly, senselessly and wantonly dismember a system that works well without the intrusion of Republicans.
      The rape and pillage of our federal government continues, as Republican Thomas Massie  introduced a bill in February aimed at terminating the Department of Education effective December 31, 2018. This coincided with the Senate confirmation of Conservative Betsy DeVos, a long time advocate of school vouchers and critic of public education.

      As a budget is being developed, we can expect a major revamping of the nation’s government structure and huge cuts.
      Mick Mulvaney, director of the Office of Management and Budget plans to streamline the U.S. government structure by drastic reallocation of resources away from social “Great Society” programs to the Dept. of Defense and Homeland Security.
      Action is already underway to gut the EPA and Dept. of Education, but the administration’s efforts are bound to encounter Congressional opposition, since budget cuts and the elimination of agencies will undoubtedly have widespread impact, none the least of which may be the loss of Republican House and Senate seats in 2018.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  April 14, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.2%. That compares with a Q1 est. on Dec. 31 of +12.5%.  Q2 growth  is projected at +8.7%, Q3 at +8.2%, and Q4 at +12.6%. For 2017 as a whole growth is projected at a plus 9.7% down from Dec. 31 estimates of 11.6%.  Currently, the P/E on forward  earnings is 17.4 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 4/13/17 and )
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  March 29, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,413 a more extreme risk is 20,196.Near-term upside potential is 20,676
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ODDS FAVOR
1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.

Conclusion: It is happening now
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.

Conclusion: It started on Easter weekend in Berkeley.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Syria, N.Korea,Delayed Stimulus Weigh

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 20,651
S&P 500: 2,353
Nasdaq  Comp.5,866:
Russell 2000:1,377
Wednesday, April  12, 2017    9:14 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

      Stocks are still under distribution, as rallies fail to follow through. To its credit, the market has held up well in face of tensions in Syria and once again in North Korea.
     
The United States has already  responded to Syria’s gas attack, and U.S. warships are currently headed for North Korea.
      Reportedly, President Trump was in touch with China President Xi Jinping yesterday, the latter urging a peaceful resolution. Trump has already stated the U.S. would solve the problem with or without China’s help.
      In terms of nuclear weapons and a delivery capability, China and the U.S. are on the same page with China already not importing coal from North Korea, and may even extend that to oil to make its point.
      Reportedly, South Korea has not yet mobilized its military forces beyond the norm, suggesting a serious confrontation between the U.S. and N. Korea is not expected.
      On a more positive note, and as a result of their recent meeting at Mar-a-Lago, Xi has proposed a 100-day plan for both U.S. and China to discuss ways to lessen the trade deficit between countries.
      While details have not been worked out, the drift of a solution would be for China to reduce its exports to the U.S. and expand markets for U.S. goods in China.
TODAY
      It looks like another test of the April lows (DJIA: 20,517, S&P 500: 2,344). Breaking that a test of the March lows (DJIA: 20,412, S&P 500: 2,322) is in order. The Street has had good reason to bail out, but hangs tough expecting peaceful resolutions of international tensions and an eventually a massive stimulus.
      >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,561;S&P 500:2,343; Nasdaq Comp.:5,843
RESISTANCE:“today”:DJIA:20,703;S&P500:2,361;NASDAQ Comp.:5,883

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET

      The rape and pillage of our federal government continues, as Republican Thomas Massie  introduced a bill in February aimed at terminating the Department of Education effective December 31, 2018. This coincided with the Senate confirmation of Conservative Betsy DeVos, a long time advocate of school vouchers and critic of public education.

      As a budget is being developed, we can expect a major revamping of the nation’s government structure and huge cuts.
…………………………………………………………………
      The U.S. Navy strike group, Carl Vinson, is currently headed for the western Pacific Ocean in the vicinity of the Korean peninsula, but will not arrive until next week.
      My guess is that the objective of the meeting between Trump and China President Xi Jinping was to inform Xi  the United States was going to move warships into the region in a show of force after North Korea’s recent missile launch. Both presidents agreed that North Korea’s nuclear development has reached a “serious stage.”  On February 26, China banned all imports of coal from North Korea in response to its continuing missile launches.
………………………………………………………………….
      After President Trump’s inauguration, former President, George W. Bush, was heard to comment, “That was some weird S_ _ _.”   Very prophetic “W.”.
      The Trump administration is undergoing a major shakeup, with national security adviser General H.R. McMaster and  Secretary of Defense James Mattis stepping in to stabilize an out of control bunch of inexperienced people in high places. Some speculate Trump shifting to a more centrist strategy.
      Steve Bannon’s demotion set a new tone, away from the isolationist, nationalism mindset and possibly back to maintaining military and economic balance, cultivating global strategic relationships to deter China from filling vacuums we would create under the Alt-Right, Ayn Rand approach to self-destruction. 
      Get rid of the Alt-Right influence and we have only to deal with Trump’s arrogance, warped ego and immeasurable lack of qualifications for the job.
…………………………………………………………………………………….

Syria Attack Was All About Trump’s 35% Approval Rating         

        It worked ! His approval rating is 40, up from 35. I Have continually warned that Trump would put the U.S. on a war footing to boost patriotic support and his approval rating.  We now have a double-header – Syria last week and now a U.S. Naval strike group is headed toward the Korean peninsula.
       Last week,  Syrian airfield strike with 59 Tomahawk missiles launched from two Destroyers in the Mediterranean Sea was in retaliation for Asaad’s use of Sarin gas on April 4 that killed more than 70 civilians.
      For Trump, this is an about face on intervention in the Mid-East, and the only reason I can see is he expects it to boost his approval ratings.
      In 2013 he urged President Obama not to retaliate against Asaad for his use of nerve agent sarin in 2013 tweeting “Again to our very foolish leader do not attack Syria –If you do many bad things will happen & from that fight the U.S.gets nothing.”  – “The only reason President Obama wants to attack Syria is to save face over his very dumb RED LINE statement. DO NOT attack Syria.” (Sept. 5, 2017).
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

HOUSE INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE
       What happened to the hearings ?  Looks like Syria  was yet another distraction, perhaps this one unplanned. Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, Devin Nunes has temporarily ceded control of  the investigation of pre-election collusion between Russia and the Trump team to Mike Conway of Texas, whining charges by “several left-wing activists” that he made unauthorized disclosures of classified information relative to the investigation.
……………………………………………………………………………..

TRUMP SQUIRMS BUT A WAR FOOTING MAY BAIL HIM OUT
      The more Trump squirms to find a way to divert attention from the main issue demanding resolution, the guiltier he looks.
      The current diversion is Susan Rice who Trump accused of being politically motivated when certain Trump associate were included in a sweep of foreign officials last year by U.S. intelligence agencies. Their identities are usually not revealed, but may be if national security is an issue. To everyone’s surprise, Trump claims in a tweet that Rice committed a crime when certain individuals were “unmasked”. Rice was National Security Advisor to President Obama from 2013 to 2017.
………………………………………………………………………………

WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  March 31, 2017)
Factset
      Q1 earnings are projected to increase 8.9%. That compares with a Q1 est. on Dec. 31 of +12.5%.  2017 as a whole are projected at a plus 9.8% down from Dec. 31 estimates of 11.6%.  Currently, the P/E on trailing 12-month earnings is 19.8 x, and based on earnings 12 months out is 17.5 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.0. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 3/29/17 and )
      On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
      As of  March 29, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,413 a more extreme risk is 20,196.Near-term upside potential is 21,113
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ODDS FAVOR
1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !
       THE STAGE IS BEING SET NOW !
      
Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.
ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>                                                       Note:
Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.