Nirvana…. or HELL !

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
 DJIA: 20,728
S&P 500: 2,368
Nasdaq  Comp.:5,914
Russell 2000:1,382
Friday,  March 31, 2017    9:06 a.m.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

      What looked like Nirvana to some November 9, now looks like Hell in the making.

      Newly elected President, Donald Trump, inherited an 8-year bull market that  had risen 240% and an economic recovery from a near global meltdown, the worst bear market, economic contraction since the 1930s.

      His game plan was a massive stimulus, the kind one would expect to be employed to reverse a recession, not to add on to an expansion that was well underway. His plan – corporate tax cuts, deregulation, a war on trade and a big spend on the military and our infrastructure.

      First on the agenda was repeal and replace Obamacare.  He failed on that. Tax reform will be a thorny issue, because it will involve offsetting cuts in government programs, many well ingrained in the system. His attempt to gut all regulations designed to reduce global warming will encounter opposition. And, the big spend will encounter huge opposition from the deficit hawks in Congress, the same guys he is savaging with tweets.

      So, is Trump one of those cross country runners who sprints out of the starting line only to finish last ?

      Does it matter, because he and his associate are being investigated by the FBI, CIA, NSA, DOJ, and U.S. Treasury for rigging the elections in collusion with the Russians and Julian Assange of WikiLeaks ?

       This could be a bigger scandal than Watergate, which contributed to a 50% drop in the stock market and a 16-month recession.

        That the possibility exists should be of concern to all investors.

Not only would the Presidency be damaged, but the entire agenda for stimulus, as well

          The stock market trades at its current level in expectation of that stimulus.  So far the Street’s computers don’t see the risk.

           When they do, all will see it simultaneously and we’ll get a freefall.     

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,651;S&P :2,361; Nasdaq Comp.:5,891
RESISTANCE:”today”:DJIA:20,775;S&P500:2,373;NASDAQ Comp.:5,923

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  March 14, 2014)
Factset

Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.0%.  2017 as a whole are projected at a plus 9.8% down from Dec. 31 estimates of 11.6%.  Currently, the P/E on trailing 12-month earnings is 19.8 x, and based on earnings 12 months out is 17.7 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 13.9. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 3/29/17 and )

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
     As of  March 29, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,413 a more extreme risk is 20,196.Near-term upside potential is 21,113
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET

     BIGGER SCANDAL THAN WATERGATE IN THE WINGS ?  I think so.  Attempts to cover it up will delay findings, but there are simply too many individuals who know too much and who will surface.

      Yep, this will be one constitutional crisis after another with the end result a loss of Republican control of Congress in 2018.

      That’s another reason Republicans will hesitate to assist in any cover up.  Network and cable television have never had it so good, this stands to be a reality show second to none.

     Trumpcare may get another vote before the House goes home for a two week recess April 7, when they will have to face constituents.

        No telling what a compromise will look like. My guess is the public will get the short end of it.

        Not only will the representatives have to answer to Trumpcare’s failure, but tax reform may take longer than expected and the big earners stand to get a big tax break if Trumpcare is passed.

        Trump is saying he wants to bring the Democrats in on a Trumpcare compromise.  Based on everything I have been hearing since Trump entered the race, I don’t believe a word of it. I think Trump wants to be able to blame the Dems for the failure to bring it to another vote to pacify  supporters when Republican voters  go on a two week recess.

       While his base won’t concede, Trump may be brought down by his own ego, as the “Russia situation” seems to worsen daily for President Trump and his chief strategist, Stephen Bannon.

         Look for a “Make America Great Again” advertising blitz in coming weeks, funded by the Mercers.  I am not sure it is a good idea to attract attention at this time, since the Mercers funded Breitbart News and Stephen Bannon, former head of Breitbart and currently strategic advisor to Trump. Reportedly, the FBI has expanded its investigation of collaboration to Alt-Right Breitbart News.

      According to Business Insider.com, Jared Kushner failed to disclose meeting with the CEO, Sergey N. Gorkov, of Vnesheconoombank in December 2016. The bank is Russia’sbank for “Development and Foreign Economic Affairs.  Reportedly, the bank was struggling in face of Russia’s economic woes.  Kushner was seeking investors for a Fifth Avenue office building that is reportedly set to be financed through Anbang Insurance Group, a company with ties to the Chinese government. A White House spokesman denied the New York office project was discussed.

      What then was discussed ?

      What’s worse, CNN’s national security analyst, Juliett Kayyem,  speculates that the FBI has been talking with Mike Flynn, formerly close advisor to Trump.  Flynn was forced to resign when it became apparent he was lying about dealings with Russia.

      The FBI wants to know if Breitbart and INFO Wars, another far right wing site, had a role in  Russian cyber attacks and the spread of fake news, where automated computer commands called “bots” distributed stories to the social media that were pro-Trump and anti-Clinton.

      Generally, a “bot” is designed to automate tasks, bypassing the need to do them manually.    

     The stench of the prospects of a Trump/Russia collusion increases with each disclosure and attempt to change the focus and cover the trail. 

    I still believe Paul Manafort  and Roger Stone hold the key to the puzzle, though Flynn is now in the running.  I think they know whether there was collusion or whether Trump has financial ties to Russia or Russian billionaires, direct or indirect.  Properties somewhere ?  Indirect ownership in oil properties ?  Access to money ? 

      I don’t think this gang expected to win, and as a result got careless and made some bad decisions when Russia came on the scene.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ODDS FAVOR

1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.
2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.
3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.
4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.
5-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     
WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !

      Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.

ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.                                                                

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Trump/Nixon Parallel

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 20,659
S&P 500: 2,361
Nasdaq  Comp.:5,897
Russell 2000:1,371
Wednesday,  March 29, 2017    9:06 a.m.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

      Politics has an impact on stock prices. Clearly, a 148% surge in the S&P 500 coming out of the worst recession/bear market since the 1930s attests to leadership projected by President Obama over 8 years in spite of unrelenting Congressional obstruction.

      And the 9% jump in the S&P 500 following Donald Trump’s November victory driven by expectations of a massive stimulus (tax cuts, deregulation and a big spend on the military/infrastructure).

      There were never doubts about Obama’s election or his character going forward like there are Trump’s.

       Trump’s rhetoric closely parallel that of Richard Nixon, though Nixon was a master politician and intellectually superior. But Nixon was plagued by the Watergate scandal, which eventually resulted in a 50% drop in the stock market and a 16-month recession, mostly owing to the scandal.

       It is possible the Trump administration will suffer from an equally debilitating scandal with comparable consequences.

       While Republican investors’ confirmation bias can enable them to ignore the failings of Trump, they would be wise to be more objective about the potential for a market/economic crunch.

       The House Intelligence Committee appears to be ineffective, the Senate Committee gives the impression of being more effective and less biased.  We’ll see. 

         If the Trump administration implodes in face of a scandal arising from collusion with Russia to influence the results of the 2016 election or undisclosed investments by Trump and associates, the impact on stock prices could be severe, BUT the reaction may not be immediate.

          I think there is enough evidence of wrong doing to raise some cash just in case. The Street’s computers may not see it that way; they may not be programmed to even consider the possibility. Your call.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,581;S&P :2,355; Nasdaq Comp.:5,873
RESISTANCE:”today”:DJIA:20,723 ;S&P500:2,377;NASDAQ Comp.:5,909

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  March 14, 2014)

Factset

Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.0%.  2017 as a whole are projected at a plus 9.8% down from Dec. 31 estimates of 11.6%.  Currently, the P/E on trailing 12-month earnings is 19.8 x, and based on earnings 12 months out is 17.7 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 13.9. 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies
:  (UPDATED 3/29/17 and )

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
     As of  March 29, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 20,413 a more extreme risk is 20,196.Near-term upside potential is 21,113

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET

     Trumpcare may get another vote before the House goes home for a two week recess April 7, when they will have to face constituents.

        No telling what a compromise will look like. My guess is the public will get the short end of it.

        Not only will the representatives have to answer to Trumpcare’s failure, but tax reform may take longer than expected and the big earners stand to get a big tax break if Trumpcare is passed.

        Trump is saying he wants to bring the Democrats in on a Trumpcare compromise.  Based on everything I have been hearing since Trump entered the race, I don’t believe a word of it. I think Trump wants to be able to blame the Dems for the failure to bring it to another vote to pacify  supporters when Republican voters  go on a two week recess.

       While his base won’t concede, Trump may be brought down by his own ego, as the “Russia situation” seems to worsen daily for President Trump and his chief strategist, Stephen Bannon.

         Look for a “Make America Great Again” advertising blitz in coming weeks, funded by the Mercers.  I am not sure it is a good idea to attract attention at this time, since the Mercers funded Breitbart News and Stephen Bannon, former head of Breitbart and currently strategic advisor to Trump. Reportedly, the FBI has expanded its investigation of collaboration to Alt-Right Breitbart News.

      According to Business Insider.com, Jared Kushner failed to disclose meeting with the CEO, Sergey N. Gorkov, of Vnesheconoombank in December 2016. The bank is Russia’sbank for “Development and Foreign Economic Affairs.  Reportedly, the bank was struggling in face of Russia’s economic woes.  Kushner was seeking investors for a Fifth Avenue office building that is reportedly set to be financed through Anbang Insurance Group, a company with ties to the Chinese government. A White House spokesman denied the New York office project was discussed.

      What then was discussed ?

      What’s worse, CNN’s national security analyst, Juliett Kayyem,  speculates that the FBI has been talking with Mike Flynn, formerly close advisor to Trump.  Flynn was forced to resign when it became apparent he was lying about dealings with Russia.

      The FBI wants to know if Breitbart and INFO Wars, another far right wing site, had a role in  Russian cyber attacks and the spread of fake news, where automated computer commands called “bots” distributed stories to the social media that were pro-Trump and anti-Clinton.

      Generally, a “bot” is designed to automate tasks, bypassing the need to do them manually.    

     The stench of the prospects of a Trump/Russia collusion increases with each disclosure and attempt to change the focus and cover the trail. 

    I still believe Paul Manafort  and Roger Stone hold the key to the puzzle, though Flynn is now in the running.  I think they know whether there was collusion or whether Trump has financial ties to Russia or Russian billionaires, direct or indirect.  Properties somewhere ?  Indirect ownership in oil properties ?  Access to money ? 

      I don’t think this gang expected to win, and as a result got careless and made some bad decisions when Russia came on the scene.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ODDS FAVOR

1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.

2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.

3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.

4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.

3-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     

 WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !

      Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.

ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.                                                                

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators: mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………….

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

Brooks007read@aol.com

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Street Still Hopeful ???

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 20,701
S&P 500: 2,358
Nasdaq  Comp.:5,875
Russell 2000:1,367

Wednesday,  March 29, 2017    9:12 a.m.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

      The Street is beginning to get nervous about a bombshell announcement about collusion between Trump’s team and Russia to influence the November presidential election in Trump’s favor.

      That, or possibly about the release of information about undisclosed investments in Russia or by Russian investors in Trump properties.

      Nevertheless, hopes of huge tax breaks for corporations and high income individuals continues to drive the Street’s bullishness, even with warnings that the issue is thorny and will take time to pass.   

      As a senior member of the Senate Appropriations committee, Senator Roy Blunt, announced Tuesday that a funding request for Trump’s wall would be put off until later this year, yet another delay in Trump’s massive stimulus.

      The U.K. triggered to Article 50 (Brexit) today officially opting to exit  the European Union.  The process will take more than a year.  While the Brits will hope to have their cake and eat it too, the EU cannot let it go well for them, since France and Italy are considering the same thing.  Brexit was a blunder, just like Trump was a blunder. Both decisions were not thought through logically based on facts.

TODAY

      A massive stimulus based on tax cuts, deregulation and a big spend on the military and infrastructure  is the drumbeat the Street marches to at this time, as evidenced by the sharp rebound in stock prices Monday and Tuesday.

      Smarting from a defeat on the repeal and replacement of Obamacare last week, and mounting evidence of wrongdoing in Russia, the Trump administration is floundering, suggesting  the stimulus won’t happen on time and may not be as big a deal as hoped for.

      That spells lower prices eventually, but it may take a while to sink in on Wall Street.  Easy does it !  When this market breaks, it will be ugly.               

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,640 ;S&P 500:2,351;Nasdaq Comp.:5,853
RESISTANCE:”today”:DJIA:20,777;S&P500:2,373; NASDAQ Comp.:5,896

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  March 3, 2014)

Factset

Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.0%.  2017 as a whole are projected at a plus 9.8% down from Dec. 31 estimates of 11.6%.  Currently, the P/E on trailing 12-month earnings is 19.8 x, and based on earnings 12 months out is 17.7 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 13.9. 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies:  (UPDATED 2/13/17)

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
     As of  March 2, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 21,040 a more extreme risk is 20,938 Near-term upside potential is 21,367 .

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET

      Trump tweets, “The failing NY Times would do much better if it were honest.”  Right !   

       It’s called projection.  That’s when a person accuses someone else of that which they are guilty of.  In this case a pathological liar is accusing the NY Times (and everyone else) of being dishonest.

       It astounds me, angers me, when Trump lies.  My first thought is, can’t everyone see the truth, his lies are so obvious ?  But, in reality, Trump supporters really don’t care if he lies, he’s their guy right or wrong, good or bad, honest or dishonest, good guy or jackass.

       How so ?  Didn’t we learn as kids to always tell the truth ? Undoubtedly, Trump supporters learned that, as well, but over time became captive to confirmation bias, where they see only what they want to see, in spite of irrefutable evidence to the contrary.

       So forget about any conversion for most of them, it is not going to happen.  They’re going to stick with him, even vote against their own best interest. Don’t most still think Obama is a Muslim born outside the United States.

       As a country, we have been lucky since the birth of our republic. When asked what kind of government we have, Ben Franklin replied. “A Republic, if you can keep it.”

       We cannot afford confirmation bias, and we cannot afford a blatant liar as our president.  He has no credibility. As a nation, we have no credibility.

        While his base won’t concede, Trump may be brought down by his own ego, as the “Russia situation” seems to worsen daily for President Trump and his chief strategist, Stephen Bannon. Reportedly, the FBI has expanded its investigation of collaboration to Alt-Right Breitbart News, which Bannon used to head up.

      According to Business Insider.com, Jared Kushner failed to disclose meeting with the CEO, Sergey N. Gorkov, of Vnesheconoombank in December 2016. The bank is Russia’sbank for “Development and Foreign Economic Affairs.  Reportedly, the bank was struggling in face of Russia’s economic woes.  Kushner was seeking investors for a Fifth Avenue office building that is reportedly set to be financed through Anbang Insurance Group, a company with ties to the Chinese government. A White House spokesman denied the New York office project was discussed.

      What then was discussed ?

      What’s worse, CNN’s national security analyst, Juliett Kayyem,  speculates that the FBI has been talking with Mike Flynn, formerly close advisor to Trump.  Flynn was forced to resign when it became apparent he was lying about dealings with Russia.

      The FBI wants to know if Breitbart and INFO Wars, another far right wing site, had a role in  Russian cyber attacks and the spread of fake news, where automated computer commands called “bots” distributed stories to the social media that were pro-Trump and anti-Clinton.

      Generally, a “bot” is designed to automate tasks, bypassing the need to do them manually.    

     The stench of the prospects of a Trump/Russia collusion increases with each disclosure and attempt to change the focus and cover the trail. 

    I still believe Paul Manafort  and Roger Stone hold the key to the puzzle, though Flynn is now in the running.  I think they know whether there was collusion or whether Trump has financial ties to Russia or Russian billionaires, direct or indirect.  Properties somewhere ?  Indirect ownership in oil properties ?  Access to money ? 

      I don’t think this gang expected to win, and as a result got careless and made some bad decisions when Russia came on the scene.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

ODDS FAVOR

1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.

2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.

3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.

4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.

3-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     

 WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !

      Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.

ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.                                                                

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators: mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………….

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

Brooks007read@aol.com

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Greenstick Fracture Trump’s Agenda ?

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open

DJIA:20,550

S&P 500: 2,341

Nasdaq  Comp.: 5,840

Russell 2000:1,358

Tuesday,  March 28, 2017    8:54 a.m.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>I

        There is big risk the Trump administration will implode. I believe there is the potential for Russiagate to trump Watergate for the worst political scandal in the office of the Presidency.

         If true, it can trigger a major bear market and recession. If not, the market will have to track the administration’s progress on its massive stimulus.

         Watergate was a big contributor to a 50% drop in the S&P 500 between January 1973 and October 1974. The relentless barrage of daily disclosures of improprieties, subterfuge, lies and cover up took a huge toll on stock prices and the economy along with high interest rates and the Arab Oil Embargo. The recession that accompanied all this lasted 16 months (November 1973 – March 1975).

        But Watergate was in the news for five months before President Nixon was reelected for a second term in November 1973, when a Gallup poll indicated only 48%  of Americans ever heard of Watergate.

        So, while a lot has been  happening with Russiagate, don’t expect a lot of public reaction yet.

        The Trump administration wants to move on the Tax Reform.  That stands to be tricky and time consuming. Who gets the big breaks, what deductions are eliminated, and how is the shortfall in revenues that results offset with cuts in government programs, and/or taxes on imports.

        That sounds like a dozen good reasons for a street fight between Republicans and Republicans and Democrats and Republicans.

        The real problem is the Republican Freedom Caucus, which has comprised the Republican “party of no,” an effective block to progress during Obama’s eight years and now in the new administration.

       In my opinion, these are constitutional anarchists and have no business blocking progress.  A couple here and there to add a little insight on other ideas is fine, but otherwise “outta our way,”

       As Representative Ted Poe, a former caucus member,  told News Day Monday, some members of the caucus would “vote against the Ten Commandments.”

       Our system of government works, but was not designed to function well if its representatives are determined to obstruct all ideas and solutions that do not meet their rigid disciplines.  Unfortunately, they are elected by voters who are equally as unwilling to compromise.

       Soooo, what’s my rant here all about ?

       There is risk here, not just from the Trump administration’s inability to get its agenda passed, but from the potential for a huge scandal  relating to Russia and deals that were not disclosed or collusion with Russia operatives to skew the election in Trump’s favor in exchange for something that has already taken place, or which is expected to take place in the future.

       I well remember Watergate and the disbelief that the Nixon administration would engage in the silly break in, but worse yet, the boneheaded cover up.

       Confirmation bias will stand in the way of Trump supporters here to accept a scandal if one in fact occurs, but to their own peril.

TODAY

      Lower at the open.  The market rebounded yesterday as investors jumped on stocks that slipped over the last four days.  That may have been premature, as  questions are surfacing about tax cuts and  Russian connections with the Trump administration.

      If the Street pounces on stocks again, those concerns are unfounded at this time.      >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,461;S&P 500:2,333;Nasdaq Comp.:5,811

RESISTANCE:”today”:DJIA:20,611;S&P500:2,347; NASDAQ Comp.:5,863

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  March 3, 2014)

      Factset

Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.0%.  2017 as a whole are projected at a plus 9.8% down from Dec. 31 estimates of 11.6%.  Currently, the P/E on trailing 12-month earnings is 19.8 x, and based on earnings 12 months out is 17.7 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 13.9. 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies:  (UPDATED 2/13/17)

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
     As of  March 2, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 21,040 a more extreme risk is 20,938 Near-term upside potential is 21,367 .

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET

       Humpty Trumpty sat on a wall…………….

      The “Russia situation” seems to worsen daily for President Trump and his chief strategist, Stephen Bannon. Reportedly, the FBI has expanded its investigation of collaboration to Alt-Right Breitbart News, which Bannon used to head up.

      According to Business Insider.com, Jared Kushner failed to disclose meeting with the CEO, Sergey N. Gorkov, of Vnesheconoombank in December 2016. The bank is Russia’sbank for “Development and Foreign Economic Affairs.  Reportedly, the bank was struggling in face of Russia’s economic woes.  Kushner was seeking investors for a Fifth Avenue office building that is reportedly set to be financed through Anbang Insurance Group, a company with ties to the Chinese governmentA White House spokesman denied the New York office project was discussed.

      What then was discussed ?

      What’s worse, CNN’s national security analyst, Juliett Kayyem,  speculates that the FBI has been talking with Mike Flynn, formerly close advisor to Trump.  Flynn was forced to resign when it became apparent he was lying about dealings with Russia.

      The FBI wants to know if Breitbart and INFO Wars, another far right wing site, had a role in  Russian cyber attacks and the spread of fake news, where automated computer commands called “bots” distributed stories to the social media that were pro-Trump and anti-Clinton.

      Generally, a “bot” is designed to automate tasks, bypassing the need to do them manually.    

     The stench of the prospects of a Trump/Russia collusion increases with each disclosure and attempt to change the focus and cover the trail. 

    I still believe Paul Manafort  and Roger Stone hold the key to the puzzle, though Flynn is now in the running.  I think they know whether there was collusion or whether Trump has financial ties to Russia or Russian billionaires, direct or indirect.  Properties somewhere ?  Indirect ownership in oil properties ?  Access to money ? 

      I don’t think this gang expected to win, and as a result got careless and made some bad decisions when Russia came on the scene.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

ODDS FAVOR

1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.

2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.

3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against tax reform and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.

4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.

3-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     

 WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !

      Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.

ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.                                                                

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators: mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………….

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

Brooks007read@aol.com

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Humpty Trumpty Sat on a Wall………….

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open

DJIA:20,596

S&P 500: 2,348

Nasdaq  Comp.5,828:

Russell 2000:1,354

Monday,  March 27, 2017    9:14 a.m.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>I

     The failure of President Trump and a Republican Congress to repeal and replace Obamacare suggests other Republican conquests will be challenging, as well.

      The Freedom caucus, backbone of the do-nothing Congress over the last six years, did it again with Obamacare, and may cause similar problems with Trump’s plan for tax cuts and the big spend on defense and the infrastructure.

      Last week’s failure raises a valid question about the level of stock prices, which are up 9.5 percent since Trump’s win in November, mainly driven by promises of a huge stimulus.

      The Trump failure to repeal/replace Obamacare, has triggered sharp declines in global stock prices, the U.S. dollar, oil, and the stock-index futures prior to the open.

       Tax reform will be a thorny issue. Over the weekend Trump revised several issues, one of which being the lowering of the corporate tax rate to 15% from 35% and allow corporations to repatriate $2.5 trillion dollars now parked overseas for a U.S. taxed rate of 10%, the idea being they would use it to goose the economy.  Good luck on that one. Unless required as a condition, they will likely use the money to buy back stock, which they have been doing for seven years.

        Trump will shortly issue an executive order gutting Obama’s efforts to counter global warming, including restricting greenhouse gas emissions at coal-fired plants. Why don’t Republicans care about the environment. If they are wrong, any damage done now will NOT be able to be reversed 50 – 100 years from now.

        All this on top of investigations to ascertain whether the Trump team colluded with Russia representatives to tilt the U.S. election in Trump’s favor through fake news and hacking.

        Then too, all the lies, who can believe anything. Is this administration going to implode ? Can the mid-terms come soon enough ?

     If so, there is a lot of downside if negatives continue to resurface.

       

t>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,276;S&P 500:2,317;Nasdaq Comp.:5,734

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  March 3, 2014)

      Factset

Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.0%.  2017 as a whole are projected at a plus 9.8% down from Dec. 31 estimates of 11.6%.  Currently, the P/E on trailing 12-month earnings is 19.8 x, and based on earnings 12 months out is 17.7 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 13.9. 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies:  (UPDATED 2/13/17)

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
     As of  March 2, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 21,040 a more extreme risk is 20,938 Near-term upside potential is 21,367 .

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET

       Humpty Trumpty sat on a wall…………….

      The “Russia situation” seems to worsen daily for President Trump and his chief strategist, Stephen Bannon. Reportedly, the FBI has expanded its investigation of collaboration to Alt-Right Breitbart News, which Bannon used to head up.

      What’s worse, CNN’s national security analyst, Juliett Kayyem,  speculates that the FBI has been talking with Mike Flynn, formerly close advisor to Trump.  Flynn was forced to resign when it became apparent he was lying about dealings with Russia.

      The FBI wants to know if Breitbart and INFO Wars, another far right wing site, had a role in  Russian cyber attacks and the spread of fake news, where automated computer commands called “bots” distributed stories to the social media that were pro-Trump and anti-Clinton.

      Generally, a “bot” is designed to automate tasks, bypassing the need to do them manually.    

     The stench of the prospects of a Trump/Russia collusion increases with each disclosure and attempt to change the focus and cover the trail. 

    I still believe Paul Manafort  and Roger Stone hold the key to the puzzle.  I think they know whether there was collusion or whether Trump has financial ties to Russia or Russian billionaires, direct or indirect.  Properties somewhere ?  Indirect ownership in oil properties ?  Access to money ? 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

ODDS FAVOR

1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.

2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.

3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against Trumpcare and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.

4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.

3-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     

 WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !

      Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.

ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.                                                                

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators: mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………….

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

Brooks007read@aol.com

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

Trump’s Momentum Hinges on Vote

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 20,656

S&P 500: 2,345

Nasdaq  Comp.: 5,817

Russell 2000:1,353

Friday,  March 25, 2017    8:56 a.m.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>I  

       President Trump has given the U.S. House an ultimatum – pass a replacement for Obamacare or else.   Or else mean the administration  moves on to tax reform leaving Obamacare in place, or perhaps just repealing it.

       I find it hard to believe any Republican would want to fail to vote for a bill even though a vote may be called before a final CBO assessment was known including new changes after Wednesday.

       The CBO’s last assessment indicated the newest bill would reduce the deficit by $150 billion over ten years, which is $186 billion less than the initial forecast of a reduction of $337 billion.  

       To pacify the heartless Freedom Caucus, coverage for services such as, hospitalization, ambulance, maternity care, pediatric, , mental health, substance abuse, prescription drugs, rehab, and laboratory services may slashed.  What a gift to insurance companies !  What a disservice to America !

        If the House passes a bill, the stock market will rebound sharply, since passage suggests Congress can then move on to tax reform, deregulation, trade and a big spend on the military and our infrastructure.

       Even if the House passes a bill, it will have a tough time in the Senate.

       Failure to pass a bill would drop stock prices sharply, though Trump will be quick to hype the benefits of his massive stimulus to soften the impact to the market.    

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,507;S&P 500:2,317;Nasdaq Comp.:5,735

RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:20,812;S&P 500:2,366;Nasdaq Comp.:5,857

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  March 3, 2014)

      Factset

Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.0%.  2017 as a whole are projected at a plus 9.8% down from Dec. 31 estimates of 11.6%.  Currently, the P/E on trailing 12-month earnings is 19.8 x, and based on earnings 12 months out is 17.7 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 13.9. 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies:  (UPDATED 2/13/17)

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
     As of  March 2, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 21,040 a more extreme risk is 20,938 Near-term upside potential is 21,367 .

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET

      The “Russia situation” seems to worsen daily for President Trump and his chief strategist, Stephen Bannon. Reportedly, the FBI has expanded its investigation of collaboration to Alt-Right Breitbart News, which Bannon used to head up.

      The FBI wants to know if Breitbart and INFO Wars, another far right wing site, had a role in  Russian cyber attacks and the spread of fake news, where automated computer commands called “bots” distributed stories to the social media that were pro-Trump and anti-Clinton.

      Generally, a “bot” is designed to automate tasks, bypassing the need to do them manually.    

     The stench of the prospects of a Trump/Russia collusion increases with each disclosure and attempt to change the focus and cover the trail. 

    I still believe Paul Manafort  and Roger Stone hold the key to the puzzle.  I think they know whether there was collusion or whether Trump has financial ties to Russia or Russian billionaires, direct or indirect.  Properties somewhere ?  Indirect ownership in oil properties ?  Access to money ? 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

ODDS FAVOR

1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.

2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.

3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against Trumpcare and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.

4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.

3-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     

 WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !

      Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.

ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.                                                                

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators: mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………….

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

Brooks007read@aol.com

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

House Passage Trumpcare – Brief Rally

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 20,661

S&P 500: 2,348

Nasdaq  Comp.5,821:

Russell 2000:1,345

Thursday,  March 24, 2017    8:56 a.m.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>I  

TODAY

  The Trump administration desperately needs House passage of Trumpcare, so it can talk about moving on to tax reform. It’s going to have a tough enough time in the Senate. 

   Passage should trigger a rally, failure a test of yesterday’s March low from which the markets rebounded without a lot of conviction.

   Tuesday’s sharp plunge was the first indication the Trump celebration was losing its momentum, as it looks like the Trump stimulus is going to take longer than expected and may not be as dramatic as promised before the election.

    Then too, there is the overhang of the investigation of collusion between the Trump team and Russia before the election to ensure a Trump victory.

The truth will out on this one, but it will take months, even a year. It seems new disclosures keep popping up, the latest being Paul Manafort’s involvement with the Trump administration, first as  his campaign manager, later with further involvement with the Trump team before election day.  Manafort had ties to Russia in the past and reportedly had  indirect in recent years. 

    As I have noted here, the Street has been bullish so long as it expected  a tax cut, deregulation and a big spend on the military and infrastructure.

    If  new information surfaces suggesting collusion between the Trump team and Russia, uncertainty on the Street will mount putting a lid on further advances in a stock market that is already pricey.

TODAY:

     The futures trade on the upside before the open, suggesting the Street is betting on passage today or tomorrow.  A passage rally will run into overhead supply, since passage by the Senate in its present form is questionable.  A Senate passage would have more legs.

    

  >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,576;S&P 500:2,337;Nasdaq Comp.:5,798

RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:20,776;S&P 500:2,368;Nasdaq Comp.:5,852

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  March 3, 2014)

      Factset

Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.0%.  2017 as a whole are projected at a plus 9.8% down from Dec. 31 estimates of 11.6%.  Currently, the P/E on trailing 12-month earnings is 19.8 x, and based on earnings 12 months out is 17.7 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 13.9. 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies:  (UPDATED 2/13/17)

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
     As of  March 2, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 21,040 a more extreme risk is 20,938 Near-term upside potential is 21,367 .

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET

      Here’s my read on Trump given the opportunity to respond to a reporter’s question that he was somewhat vindicated about surveillance.  Devin Nunes, Republican and chair of the House Intelligence Committee, angered Republicans with his comment to FBI’s Comey earlier in the week, “You’ve put a big gray cloud over the Trump administration.” That is not the message the Trump administration wanted out there on top of all the negatives already surfacing.  What’s more, the administration needed an “upper” going into the Trumpcare vote today or tomorrow.

     So Nunes was given a layup to bypass his committee and run over to the White House to give the President a chance to respond to a reporter’s question, that he felt somewhat vindicated by the news of surveillance, which really had nothing to do with a wiretap by President Obama. On top of that, Nunes held a press conference to give his side of the story, again, without sharing the info with his committee – more collusion ?

     Bottom line:  Trump supporters, masters at confirmation bias, can now argue, Trump’s accusation of Obama had merit.  Nunes’ career as a politician won’t be cut short by Republicans, though his tarnished credibility may destroy him. I want to know the name of the media which posed the question to Trump – sounds fishy..

     The stench of the prospects of a Trump/Russia collusion increases with each disclosure and attempt to change the focus and cover the trail. 

    I still believe Paul Manafort  and Roger Stone hold the key to the puzzle.  I think they know whether there was collusion or whether Trump has financial ties to Russia or Russian billionaires, direct or indirect.  Properties somewhere ?  Indirect ownership in oil properties ?  Access to money ? 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

ODDS FAVOR

1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.

2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.

3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against Trumpcare and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.

4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.

3-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     

 WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !

      Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.

ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.                                                                 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators: mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………….

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

Brooks007read@aol.com

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Street Needs Passage of Trumpcare

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 20,668

S&P 500: 2,344

Nasdaq  Comp.:5,793

Russell 2000:1,346

Wednesday,  March 22, 2017    8:55 a.m.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>I  

TODAY

      Yesterday’s plunge in stock prices was a break in the market’s M.O. since the November elections.  There were no buyers on dips, suggesting something has changed over the last six months when the Street used every pullback however slight to buy.

       Let’s call it “second thoughts” about the Trump presidency.  For one, the FBI found no reason to support Trump’s assertion that he was wiretapped before the election, for another, the FBI was investigating Russian interference with the outcome of our election and possibly Republican collusion.

       Then too, Trump’s agenda for tax cuts, deregulation, and a big spend on the military and infrastructure may not happen as soon as the Street expected, and may even fall short of original targets.

       Of course,  there is a chance yesterday’s sell off was triggered by an increasing concern about the FBI’s investigation of Republican collusion with Russia to sway the outcome of the November elections in favor of Trump, and I think that is a valid concern.

        Expect a rally before noon. If that fails to hold, the message  would  suggest the Street still has doubts about Trumpcare succeeding.

        I expect House passage of Trumpcare, so a sell off into tomorrow’s open could give traders a buying opportunity in anticipation of passage sometime during the day.       

  >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,607;S&P 500:2,337;Nasdaq Comp.:5,776

RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:20,721;S&P 500:2,353;Nasdaq Comp.:5,831

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  March 3, 2014)

      Factset

Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.0%.  2017 as a whole are projected at a plus 9.8% down from Dec. 31 estimates of 11.6%.  Currently, the P/E on trailing 12-month earnings is 19.8 x, and based on earnings 12 months out is 17.7 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 13.9. 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies:  (UPDATED 2/13/17)

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
     As of  March 2, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 21,040 a more extreme risk is 20,938 Near-term upside potential is 21,367 .

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET

  Strange, how one man can impact history.   

  Without hedge-fund billionaire, Robert L. Mercer, Donald Trump would not be President, Stephen Bannon would likely be producing unflattering documentaries about pols, Breitbart News would be a remote platform for  the alt-right which would have zero visibility, there would not be the need to investigate Russian hacking  of our 2016 election, and the  Citizens United ruling would never have seen the light of day.

      Then too, incivility and lying would not be disgracing our Presidency and all those racists, white supremacists, neo-nazis, anti-semites, white nationalists, homophobes, conspiracists, nativists, misogynists, bigots, haters of  lifeforms would never have crawled out from under their respective rocks.  

       Mercer’s brilliance and money as a quantitative analyst capable of mining the most obscure data and synthesizing it into a common sense platform where it has multiple applications, including targeting preferences and character flaws, enabling him and Bannon to put Trump in office.

     Mercer made his billions trading algorithms for the Medallion fund over close to three decades.

       Reportedly, he has an intense dislike for the establishment, especially Republicans and wants government shrunk to the size of a pinhead.       

      Nothing has been said or written about what Mercer would replace  what’s left of the government after it has been razed.  

       GREAT !  Just what we need. 

       Years from now, I suspect Mercer will be relaxing at his Long Island waterfront retreat, Owl’s Nest, or on his 200-foot yacht, Sea Owl, and look back over his illustrious career tarnished by one huge regret – he backed the biggest con job in our nation’s history. This conclusion just my opinion, of course, using the world’s best computer – a human brain.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

ODDS FAVOR

1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.

2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.

3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against Trumpcare and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.

4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.

3-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.     

 WHY TRUMP WOULD PUT US  ON  A WAR FOOTING !

      Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.

ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.                                                                

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators: mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………….

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

Brooks007read@aol.com

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trump, Bannon Gone by 2019 ?

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 20,905

S&P 500: 2,373

Nasdaq  Comp.:5,901

Russell 2000:1,384

Tuesday,  March 21, 2017    9:16 a.m.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>I  

  Strange, how one man can impact history.   

  Without hedge-fund billionaire, Robert L. Mercer, Donald Trump would not be President, Stephen Bannon would likely be producing unflattering documentaries about pols, Breitbart News would be a remote platform for  the alt-right which would have zero visibility, there would not be the need to investigate Russian hacking  of our 2016 election, and the  Citizens United ruling would never have seen the light of day.

      Then too, incivility and lying would not be disgracing our Presidency and all those racists, white supremacists, neo-nazis, anti-semites, white nationalists, homophobes, conspiracists, nativists, misogynists, bigots, haters of  lifeforms would never have crawled out from under their respective rocks.  

       Mercer’s brilliance and money as a quantitative analyst capable of mining the most obscure data and synthesizing it into a common sense platform where it has multiple applications, including targeting preferences and character flaws, enabling him and Bannon to put Trump in office.

     Mercer made his billions trading algorithms for the Medallion fund over close to three decades.

       Reportedly, he has an intense dislike for the establishment, especially Republicans and wants government shrunk to the size of a pinhead.       

      Nothing has been said or written about what Mercer would replace  what’s left of the government after it has been razed.  

       GREAT !  Just what we need. 

       Years from now, I suspect Mercer will be relaxing at his Long Island waterfront retreat, Owl’s Nest, or on his 200-foot yacht, Sea Owl, and look back over his illustrious career tarnished by one huge regret – he backed the biggest con job in our nation’s history. This conclusion just my opinion, of course, using the world’s best computer – a human brain.

ODDS FAVOR

1-Trump’s presidency will implode within three years, Bannon will be gone, along with Breitbart News and Alt-Right’ influence.

2-Trump will put the United States on a war footing with North Korea in coming months with or without China’s cooperation.

3-Expect major domestic violence this summer as alt-Right groups confront protestors against Trumpcare and Congress’ gutting of a host of popular government programs.

4-Seeds of a recession will be planted as Congress guts programs needed and used by millions.  Stock market has its final run.

3-Social Security and Medicare will be targeted for drastic changes if the Republicans hold control of both houses in 2018 and Congress is successful in gutting most of social service programs and the EPA per Trump’s wish list.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  

TODAY

      Look for a light week for reports on the economy. While Fed officials: Evans, George, Mester, Roesngren, Kaskari, Kaplan, Bullard, and Williams have speaking engagements this week, I doubt we will learn anything new after Fed Chief Janet Yellen’s press conference last Wednesday.

      Consumer expectations have been rising since Q4 last year.  Consumer Confidence is outpacing Consumer Sentiments, the main difference in lay terms being Confidence is planning to buy, Sentiments is expecting to buy “now.”

      So far, retail sales haven’t confirmed this enthusiasm. December and January were solid, but February soft. Maybe warmer weather will loosen purse strings. A long-awaited pick up in manufacturing may be upon us, both the Philly Fed and Empire State New Order Indexes are up sharply in March.

       It clearly looks like our President lied about wiretaps in an attempt to divert attention away from  Russia Connections.

        It looks like Trumpcare will pass the House en route to the Senate.

        The Street has no reason to think it won’t get rewarded with all the goodies promised by Trump, though timing could cool the fever.

  >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,890;S&P 500:2,370;Nasdaq Comp.:5,891

RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:20,949;S&P 500:2,383;Nasdaq Comp.:5,911

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  March 3, 2014)

      Factset

Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.0%.  2017 as a whole are projected at a plus 9.8% down from Dec. 31 estimates of 11.6%.  Currently, the P/E on trailing 12-month earnings is 19.8 x, and based on earnings 12 months out is 17.7 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 13.9. 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies:  (UPDATED 2/13/17)

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
     As of  March 2, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 21,040 a more extreme risk is 20,938 Near-term upside potential is 21,367 .

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET

      At no time has the consideration of politics been more important in assessing a value for investments.

      According to Time Magazine, Trump has yet to nominate 505 of the 553 Executive Branch positions, just another indication his administration is in chaos. Apparently Trump doesn’t consider these positions essential.

     Time Magazine reports that only six departments, Commerce, Justice, Health and Human Services, Defense, Homeland Security and Transportation have Senate-confirmed positions  at headquarters nominate below the Secretary level.

The sum total of all the overreach, dishonesty and ineptness will eventually take a toll on results, and then the problems will surface for all to see, and it won’t be pretty.

      I just read the list of 80 programs that would lose federal funding under Trump’s proposed budget.   I can hear the snickers of right wingers who delight in seeing so many progressive programs that may get axed all to fund the already  mightiest military in the world.

      This stands to destabilize a country that is already divided by relentless lies from the very highest levels of our government.

      This is not making America great, it is ensuring beyond a doubt its demise going forward.  How can anyone who supports such a rape and pillage call themselves an Americans ?  Will anything be left worth defending.

       This is the enemy within, intent on imposing a political ideology on the United States, where exhaustive efforts have been made over the years to improve life and opportunity for as many Americans as possible.

………………………………………………………..

SLASH EPA FUNDS – DENY CLIMATE CHANGE

      Reuters reports Trump intends to slash 25% of the EPA’s budget related to climate-change designed to prevent air and water pollution, like lead contamination.

      WHY ? Is this kiss-ass for support from the polluters ?  Clearly, it is not what is best for future generations.

      What if the Republican deniers are WRONG ?  What if climate change (too hot/too cold) impairs the ability of  the world’s major sources of food to produce enough food at an affordable price ?

       Numerous surveys have been conducted over the years, including universities, NASA, and independent scientists. Support for addressing climate change ranged between 90% and 97%.

       Last September, a coalition of 25 military and national security experts, including those from both the Reagan and Bush administrations warned that climate change poses a “significant risk to US national and international security.”

TRUMPCARE  – Care cuts for people, tax cuts for top 2%

        We now have Trumpcare, a highly controversial healthcare deform bill, that replaces Obamacare and is certain to stir a lot of ugly Congressional and national debate and slow down progress on the other programs Congress wants to ram through.

      More importantly, it skewers Americans desperately in need of affordable healthcare – so characteristically  Republican !

  While still in development, Trumpcare could cause as many as 14 million Americans to lose their healthcare coverage next year according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO), more in future years.  Reportedly, it hurts seniors by charging them five times the amount charged younger people, slashes Medicaid benefits for nursing home care, hurts women by eliminating funding for Planned Parenthood, including family planning services, and may force the closing of hospitals and rural health clinics  in rural areas.

       Trump urges Americans to be patient, that it could take several years for prices to drop.   How convenient, that gets him and his party past the mid-term elections.  “It’s going to be a thing of beauty,” he says.       

 EXPECT TRUMP TO PUT  THE NATION ON A WAR FOOTING !

      Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.

ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.                                                                

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators: mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………….

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

Brooks007read@aol.com

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 20,914

S&P 500: 2,378

Nasdaq  Comp.:5,900

Russell 2000:1,391

Monday,  March 20, 2017    9:16 a.m.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

      So far the stock market has ignored the dysfunction and attempt to ruthlessly dismember much of  the framework of our federal government supporting a broad cross section of needs and interests of all Americans.

       The money behind Trump, Stephen Bannon, chief strategist to Trump,  and Alt-Right Breitbart News is Robert Mercer, a hedge-fund billionaire who reportedly wants to see the U.S. government “shrunk down to the size of a pinhead.”

       Bannon, is on the same page, perhaps more callous.

       GREAT !   What are they going to replace it with ?

       We are well into the first 100 days of Trump’s presidency and everyone is totally clueless about what pieces will remain to be picked over if these newcomers have their way.

        Not only will Trumpcare deny more than 10 million of healthcare in its first year, but Trump’s Congressional wish list would gut many social services and safety nets tens of millions of Americans rely on.

        Maybe a billionaire doesn’t have to worry about healthcare, shelter, food, and subsistence, but  325,810,017 Americans do.

        Trump’s approval rating is now 37%, that compares with a 63% approval rating for Barack Obama at the same time in his presidency.

         Has it occurred to anyone, how much damage will be done to our economy, to our population in general, to the fabric of who we are as a nation, as a people, if this administration gets its way ?      

        How long can the stock market ignore this ?

        As I have been saying, probably as long as it takes for the Street to be certain that it will or won’t be awarded with corporate tax cuts, deregulation and crazy spending on a wall that will cost $22 billion and $54 billion on the mightiest military in the world to make it mightier, all at the expense of the American people.

        If the Street doesn’t get what it is praying for, there is a lot of downside before that disappointment is discounted.

        As I see it, our constitutional republic is in for the greatest test ever, even greater than the 1960s and 1970s. I would not be surprised if the Trump presidency does not survive two years, or if the Democrats win back both houses in 2018. I would not be surprised if the next two years are the most disruptive in memory, more than the Nixon/Watergate years.

       As investors, be ready for anything.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>   

      Look for a light week for reports on the economy. While Fed officials: Evans, George, Mester, Roesngren, Kaskari, Kaplan, Bullard, and Williams have speaking engagements this week, I doubt we will learn anything new after Fed Chief Janet Yellen’s press conference last Wednesday.

      Consumer expectations have been rising since Q4 last year.  Consumer Confidence is outpacing Consumer Sentiments, the main difference in lay terms being Confidence is planning to buy, Sentiments is expecting to buy “now.”

      So far, retail sales haven’t confirmed this enthusiasm. December and January were solid, but February soft. Maybe warmer weather will loosen purse strings. A long-awaited pick up in manufacturing may be upon us, both the Philly Fed and Empire State New Order Indexes are up sharply in March.

 

  >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

SUPPORT “today”:DJIA:20,873;S&P 500:2,374;Nasdaq Comp.:5,891

RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:20,976;S&P 500:2,385;Nasdaq Comp.:5.911

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

CORPORATE EARNINGS (updated  March 3, 2014)

      Factset

Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.0%.  2017 as a whole are projected at a plus 9.8% down from Dec. 31 estimates of 11.6%.  Currently, the P/E on trailing 12-month earnings is 19.8 x, and based on earnings 12 months out is 17.7 x. That compares with a 10-year average P/E of 13.9. 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies:  (UPDATED 2/13/17)

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
     As of  March 2, 2017,  a reasonable risk is 21,040 a more extreme risk is 20,938 Near-term upside potential is 21,367 .

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET

      At no time has the consideration of politics been more important in assessing a value for investments.

      According to Time Magazine, Trump has yet to nominate 505 of the 553 Executive Branch positions, just another indication his administration is in chaos. Apparently Trump doesn’t consider these positions essential.

     Time Magazine reports that only six departments, Commerce, Justice, Health and Human Services, Defense, Homeland Security and Transportation have Senate-confirmed positions  at headquarters nominate below the Secretary level.

The sum total of all the overreach, dishonesty and ineptness will eventually take a toll on results, and then the problems will surface for all to see, and it won’t be pretty.

      I just read the list of 80 programs that would lose federal funding under Trump’s proposed budget.   I can hear the snickers of right wingers who delight in seeing so many progressive programs that may get axed all to fund the already  mightiest military in the world.

      This stands to destabilize a country that is already divided by relentless lies from the very highest levels of our government.

      This is not making America great, it is ensuring beyond a doubt its demise going forward.  How can anyone who supports such a rape and pillage call themselves an Americans ?  Will anything be left worth defending.

       This is the enemy within, intent on imposing a political ideology on the United States, where exhaustive efforts have been made over the years to improve life and opportunity for as many Americans as possible.

………………………………………………………..

   

   

SLASH EPA FUNDS – DENY CLIMATE CHANGE

      Reuters reports Trump intends to slash 25% of the EPA’s budget related to climate-change designed to prevent air and water pollution, like lead contamination.

      WHY ? Is this kiss-ass for support from the polluters ?  Clearly, it is not what is best for future generations.

      What if the Republican deniers are WRONG ?  What if climate change (too hot/too cold) impairs the ability of  the world’s major sources of food to produce enough food at an affordable price ?

       Numerous surveys have been conducted over the years, including universities, NASA, and independent scientists. Support for addressing climate change ranged between 90% and 97%.

       Last September, a coalition of 25 military and national security experts, including those from both the Reagan and Bush administrations warned that climate change poses a “significant risk to US national and international security.”

TRUMPCARE  – Care cuts for people, tax cuts for top 2%

        We now have Trumpcare, a highly controversial healthcare deform bill, that replaces Obamacare and is certain to stir a lot of ugly Congressional and national debate and slow down progress on the other programs Congress wants to ram through.

      More importantly, it skewers Americans desperately in need of affordable healthcare – so characteristically  Republican !

  While still in development, Trumpcare could cause as many as 14 million Americans to lose their healthcare coverage next year according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO), more in future years.  Reportedly, it hurts seniors by charging them five times the amount charged younger people, slashes Medicaid benefits for nursing home care, hurts women by eliminating funding for Planned Parenthood, including family planning services, and may force the closing of hospitals and rural health clinics  in rural areas.

       Trump urges Americans to be patient, that it could take several years for prices to drop.   How convenient, that gets him and his party past the mid-term elections.  “It’s going to be a thing of beauty,” he says. 

      

 EXPECT TRUMP TO PUT  THE NATION ON A WAR FOOTING !

      Expect the Trump administration to put the United States on a war footing within one year, probably regarding North Korea.  For one, it would justify its big military spend. For another, it would facilitate a mid-term election victory, since voters are reluctant to change  Congress significantly when the nation is gearing up for war.. It worked for George Bush in 2003.  Finally, it would deflect attention away from the Trump/Russia issue, that could sink the administration.

ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STOCK MARKET  AND   MERITS CONSIDERATION.                                                                

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators: mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………….

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

Brooks007read@aol.com

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.