A Test For the Bulls

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 20,810
S&P 500:2,363
Nasdaq Comp.: 5,835
Russell 2000:1,394
Friday, February 24, 2017 9:08 a.m.
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Looks like a lower open today after the markets hit a wall yesterday with the Nasdaq Comp. and smaller company Russell 2000 hit the worst.
A correction of sideways trading pattern would make sense after a 13.4% post-election surge in the S&P 500.
The driver for the surge has been well publicized – tax cuts, deregulation, and increased spending on the infrastructure.
Nothing has changed except the timing of each and that seems to change often. Currently, top priority will be given to the repeal of the ACA, followed by tax reform, then immigration. Infrastructure spending may be held for 2018, a mid-term election year.
As long as the Street expects progress on these issues within a year, they will be buyers.
What to do with ACA may be a sticking point without an easy solution and an issue that could hurt Republicans in the mid-terms if not resolved satisfactorily.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin hinted yesterday that tax reform could come before the August recess – that is unlikely.
Regardless of party affiliation, investors must accept the possibility of an open-ended Russia/Trump scandal, an administration and a Republican Congress running for cover and ultimately, Trump’s replacement by Vice President Mike Pence. (see Political/Stock market below).
TODAY
The market will open lower today. Whether this is the beginning of a five to ten day correction or a two-day affair depends on how eager investors are to jump on lower prices.
A one-day reversal where stocks regain most of their day’s loss indicates the pullback will be brief. A close at the lows for the day indicates lower prices next week.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:20,696 ;S&P 500:2,255;Nasdaq Comp.:5,803
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:20,835;S&P 500:2,366;Nasdaq Comp.:5,850
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ISSUES TO CONSIDER
– the prospect of big corporate tax cuts, deregulation, a big spend on the military and the infrastructure and the restructuring of long-standing trade agreements.
-the possibility they will take longer than expected, worst case be disappointing.
-the uncertainties of the repeal of Obamacare
-talk of privatization of Medicare and Social Security
-possible undermining of NATO and the European Union
-a trade war of sorts.
-lifting of sanctions on Russia for its incursion in the Crimea and actions in Syria, adding to questions already breached.
-continued internal polarization of America and the possible extension of such to other countries.
-intense economic stimulation by the Trump/Republican Congress stands to trigger a rebound of inflationary pressures forcing the Fed to bump interest rates sooner than expected.
-an increasing erosion of investor confidence in President Trump.
-the real possibility of Trump putting the country on a war footing to ensure patriotic support for the mid-term elections, or a pre-emptive attack on North Korea or Iran.
-the possibility, though remote at this time, that the Trump/Russia connection may blow up.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
There are some similarities between what is happening now and what happened 44 years ago with the Watergate scandal during President Nixon’s administration.
The Watergate break-in occurred in mid-June 1972 with a cover up beginning immediately along with daily disclosures of impropriety at the highest levels until President Nixon was forced to resign. But even though serious disclosures were surfacing for five months, Nixon was still re-elected by a landslide.
A bear market began on January 11, 1973 with the S&P 500 plunging 50% over a 21 month span.
A 16 month recession started in November 1973, triggered by fallout from Vietnam, the disruption of Bretton Woods monetary system, stagflation, the oil crisis and Watergate.
If a scandal exists and is not successfully covered up, its impact may not be felt for many months.
Could something similar happen again ?
YES, it’s possible, especially since the stock market is at all-time highs and overvalued as the Street expects a huge Trump stimulus.
Be forewarned.

PITY PARTY FRR TRUMP
“To be honest, I inherited a mess,” Trump said at his press conference yesterday, adding, It’s a mess… at home and abroad.”
Really ! If he thinks a growing economy, stabile financial and fiscal conditions here and abroad, limited warfare in the mid-east, he should have been President in 2009 when Barack Obama took over in face of a global meltdown, the worst stock market and economic collapse since the 1930s, war on two fronts, bankruptcies at the highest level on Wall Street, the potential extinction of the U.S. auto industry.
Is this man delusional ? Is he of sound mind ? Who could whine about what he has inherited in his first year as president ?
This is scary. President Trump heads up the most powerful position in the world, and he is acting like a psychotic.
Even Trump-friendly Fox news anchor, Shepard Smith, is stunned saying, “It’s crazy what we’re watching every day, it’s absolutely crazy. He keeps repeating ridiculous throw away lines that are not true at all….”
Wall Street isn’t concerned, if Trump gets kicked out or bails out in disgrace, they got V.P. Pence, who I think they really prefer anyhow.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Corporate earnings (updated Feb. 11, 2014)
Factset now sees Q4 earnings for the S&P 500 up close to 5.0% vs. a Dec. 31 projection of plus 3.0%.
Earnings for all of 2016 is now projected to be plus 0.5%.
Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.9% on revenue growth of 7.5%. Q2 is projected at plus 9.1% and 2017 as a whole are projected at a plus10.3% down from earlier estimates of 11.4. Currently, the P/E based on earnings 12 months out is 17.4 x, which compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.4.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies: (UPDATED 2/13/17)
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of January 27, 2017, a reasonable risk is 20,361 a more extreme risk is 20,286 Near-term upside potential is 20,967 .
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: bullish
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Selective opportunity ! Risk is reality at some point
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 35%.
 KEY FACTORS: Speculative fever driven by expectations of tax cuts, lifting of regs., and lots of money dumped on economy.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Street Is Indifferent to Risk ???

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 20,775
S&P 500:2,362
Nasdaq Comp5,860.:
Russell 2000:1,403
Thursday, February 23, 2017 9:18 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The S&P 500 sells at 17.7 X forward earnings, which is well above the 10-year average P/E of 14.4.
Obviously the Street justifies this excess, looking ahead to tax cuts, deregulation, repatriation of overseas profits and a big spend on the infrastructure and the military.
If all the above happens within a reasonable time this overvaluation is acceptable.
If these goodies don’t happen this year, the market will have to pull back to a level that discounts the Street’s disappointment.
For now, speculative fever is running high but can go much higher as investors indifferent to risk go all-in.
This is classic bull market stuff. The newsletter, “Investors Intelligence,” has distinguished itself since 1963, sensing investor greed and fear, running a survey of bulls and bears among investment advisors. Its norm is 45% bulls and 35% bears. Currently, their index reads 69% bulls.
That suggests just about all advisors with money to invest are optimistic about the future for the stock market.
Good, right ?
Not so !
An Investors Intelligence reading that well above the norm suggests “excess,” a warning signal that a correction is can happen in the near future, one that brings stocks back to a more reasonable level.
This kind of momentum is hard to shut off. At some point sellers will enter the market and overpower buyers.
Since no one knows when Congress will pass tax reform, and agree on increased spending, the two factors most likely to positively impact corporate earnings, the timing of a correction is anyone’s guess. Investors should know, the market is “pricey” enough to warrant a correction at any time, and it could get ugly.
Regardless of party affiliation, investors must accept the possibility of an open-ended Russia/Trump scandal, an administration and a Republican Congress running for cover and ultimately, Trump’s replacement by Vice President Mike Pence. (see Political/Stock market below).
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA: 20,743;S&P 500:2,356;Nasdaq Comp.:5,841
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:20,897;S&P 500:2,376;Nasdaq Comp.:5,893
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ISSUES TO CONSIDER
– the prospect of big corporate tax cuts, deregulation, a big spend on the military and the infrastructure and the restructuring of long-standing trade agreements.
-the possibility they will take longer than expected, worst case be disappointing.
-the uncertainties of the repeal of Obamacare
-talk of privatization of Medicare and Social Security
-possible undermining of NATO and the European Union
-a trade war of sorts.
-lifting of sanctions on Russia for its incursion in the Crimea and actions in Syria, adding to questions already breached.
-continued internal polarization of America and the possible extension of such to other countries.
-intense economic stimulation by the Trump/Republican Congress stands to trigger a rebound of inflationary pressures forcing the Fed to bump interest rates sooner than expected.
-an increasing erosion of investor confidence in President Trump.
-the real possibility of Trump putting the country on a war footing to ensure patriotic support for the mid-term elections, or a pre-emptive attack on North Korea or Iran.
-the possibility, though remote at this time, that the Trump/Russia connection may blow up.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
There are some similarities between what is happening now and what happened 44 years ago with the Watergate scandal during President Nixon’s administration.
The Watergate break-in occurred in mid-June 1972 with a cover up beginning immediately along with daily disclosures of impropriety at the highest levels until President Nixon was forced to resign. But even though serious disclosures were surfacing for five months, Nixon was still re-elected by a landslide.
A bear market began on January 11, 1973 with the S&P 500 plunging 50% over a 21 month span.
A 16 month recession started in November 1973, triggered by fallout from Vietnam, the disruption of Bretton Woods monetary system, stagflation, the oil crisis and Watergate.
If a scandal exists and is not successfully covered up, its impact may not be felt for many months.
Could something similar happen again ?
YES, it’s possible, especially since the stock market is at all-time highs and overvalued as the Street expects a huge Trump stimulus.
Be forewarned.

PITY PARTY FRR TRUMP
“To be honest, I inherited a mess,” Trump said at his press conference yesterday, adding, It’s a mess… at home and abroad.”
Really ! If he thinks a growing economy, stabile financial and fiscal conditions here and abroad, limited warfare in the mid-east, he should have been President in 2009 when Barack Obama took over in face of a global meltdown, the worst stock market and economic collapse since the 1930s, war on two fronts, bankruptcies at the highest level on Wall Street, the potential extinction of the U.S. auto industry.
Is this man delusional ? Is he of sound mind ? Who could whine about what he has inherited in his first year as president ?
This is scary. President Trump heads up the most powerful position in the world, and he is acting like a psychotic.
Even Trump-friendly Fox news anchor, Shepard Smith, is stunned saying, “It’s crazy what we’re watching every day, it’s absolutely crazy. He keeps repeating ridiculous throw away lines that are not true at all….”
Wall Street isn’t concerned, if Trump gets kicked out or bails out in disgrace, they got V.P. Pence, who I think they really prefer anyhow.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Corporate earnings (updated Feb. 11, 2014)
Factset now sees Q4 earnings for the S&P 500 up close to 5.0% vs. a Dec. 31 projection of plus 3.0%.
Earnings for all of 2016 is now projected to be plus 0.5%.
Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.9% on revenue growth of 7.5%. Q2 is projected at plus 9.1% and 2017 as a whole are projected at a plus10.3% down from earlier estimates of 11.4. Currently, the P/E based on earnings 12 months out is 17.4 x, which compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.4.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies: (UPDATED 2/13/17)
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of January 27, 2017, a reasonable risk is 20,361 a more extreme risk is 20,286 Near-term upside potential is 20,967 .
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: bullish
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Selective opportunity ! Risk is reality at some point
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 35%.
 KEY FACTORS: Speculative fever driven by expectations of tax cuts, lifting of regs., and lots of money dumped on economy.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Time to Take Some Nov. – Feb. Profits ?

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 20,743
S&P 500:2,365
Nasdaq Comp.: 5,865
Russell 2000:1,410
Wednesday, February 22, 2017 9:18 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
While the S&P 500 is overvalued by historical benchmarks, it plods forward undeterred by internal problems within the Trump administration and political risk.
It cares only about the prospects for corporate tax cuts, deregulation and increased spending on the infrastructure and the military.
At some point, the market will reach a level that discounts these prospects, then trade sideways, even pull back.
The risk here is that none of these perks will develop any time soon, however that will not be known for months.
New highs each day seem like such a sure thing, investors appear to be lured into a false sense of security, and that can be dangerous.
Bull market tops and major corrections occur when least expected.
Regardless of party affiliation, investors must accept the possibility of an open-ended Russia/Trump scandal, an administration and a Republican Congress running for cover and ultimately, Trump’s replacement by Vice President Mike Pence. (see Political/Stock market below).
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:20,711;S&P 500:2,361;Nasdaq Comp.:5,857
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:20,840;S&P 500:2,376;Nasdaq Comp.:5,693
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ISSUES TO CONSIDER
– the prospect of big corporate tax cuts, deregulation, a big spend on the military and the infrastructure and the restructuring of long-standing trade agreements.
-the possibility they will take longer than expected, worst case be disappointing.
-the uncertainties of the repeal of Obamacare
-talk of privatization of Medicare and Social Security
-possible undermining of NATO and the European Union
-a trade war of sorts.
-lifting of sanctions on Russia for its incursion in the Crimea and actions in Syria, adding to questions already breached.
-continued internal polarization of America and the possible extension of such to other countries.
-intense economic stimulation by the Trump/Republican Congress stands to trigger a rebound of inflationary pressures forcing the Fed to bump interest rates sooner than expected.
-an increasing erosion of investor confidence in President Trump.
-the real possibility of Trump putting the country on a war footing to ensure patriotic support for the mid-term elections, or a pre-emptive attack on North Korea or Iran.
-the possibility, though remote at this time, that the Trump/Russia connection may blow up.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
There are some similarities between what is happening now and what happened 44 years ago with the Watergate scandal during President Nixon’s administration.
The Watergate break-in occurred in mid-June 1972 with a cover up beginning immediately along with daily disclosures of impropriety at the highest levels until President Nixon was forced to resign. But even though serious disclosures were surfacing for five months, Nixon was still re-elected by a landslide.
A bear market began on January 11, 1973 with the S&P 500 plunging 50% over a 21 month span.
A 16 month recession started in November 1973, triggered by fallout from Vietnam, the disruption of Bretton Woods monetary system, stagflation, the oil crisis and Watergate.
If a scandal exists and is not successfully covered up, its impact may not be felt for many months.
Could something similar happen again ?
YES, it’s possible, especially since the stock market is at all-time highs and overvalued as the Street expects a huge Trump stimulus.
Be forewarned.

PITY PARTY FRR TRUMP
“To be honest, I inherited a mess,” Trump said at his press conference yesterday, adding, It’s a mess… at home and abroad.”
Really ! If he thinks a growing economy, stabile financial and fiscal conditions here and abroad, limited warfare in the mid-east, he should have been President in 2009 when Barack Obama took over in face of a global meltdown, the worst stock market and economic collapse since the 1930s, war on two fronts, bankruptcies at the highest level on Wall Street, the potential extinction of the U.S. auto industry.
Is this man delusional ? Is he of sound mind ? Who could whine about what he has inherited in his first year as president ?
This is scary. President Trump heads up the most powerful position in the world, and he is acting like a psychotic.
Even Trump-friendly Fox news anchor, Shepard Smith, is stunned saying, “It’s crazy what we’re watching every day, it’s absolutely crazy. He keeps repeating ridiculous throw away lines that are not true at all….”
Wall Street isn’t concerned, if Trump gets kicked out or bails out in disgrace, they got V.P. Pence, who I think they really prefer anyhow.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Corporate earnings (updated Feb. 11, 2014)
Factset now sees Q4 earnings for the S&P 500 up close to 5.0% vs. a Dec. 31 projection of plus 3.0%.
Earnings for all of 2016 is now projected to be plus 0.5%.
Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.9% on revenue growth of 7.5%. Q2 is projected at plus 9.1% and 2017 as a whole are projected at a plus10.3% down from earlier estimates of 11.4. Currently, the P/E based on earnings 12 months out is 17.4 x, which compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.4.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies: (UPDATED 2/13/17)
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of January 27, 2017, a reasonable risk is 20,361 a more extreme risk is 20,286 Near-term upside potential is 20,967 .
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: bullish
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Selective opportunity ! Risk is reality at some point
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 35%.
 KEY FACTORS: Speculative fever driven by expectations of tax cuts, lifting of regs., and lots of money dumped on economy.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

A Trump/Russian Scandal

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 20,624
S&P 500: 2,351
Nasdaq Comp5.838.:
Russell 2000:1,399
Tuesday, February 21, 2017 9:12 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Reports of a Russian connection with people associated with the Trump organization and President Trump himself just won’t go away.
Like the Watergate scandal involving President Nixon and his staff, new developments seem to continue to surface leading to suspicions that this is but the tip of the iceberg.
Regardless of party affiliation, investors must accept the possibility of an open-ended scandal, an administration and a Republican Congress running for cover and ultimately, Trump’s replacement by Vice President Mike Pence.
An open-ended scandal drawn out over months can put a lid on the current surge in stock prices, even trigger a correction, since the Street would begin to worry about the timing of a tax cut, deregulation and the big spend on the infrastructure and military.
The Watergate break-in occurred in mid-June 1972 with a cover up beginning immediately along with daily disclosures of impropriety at the highest levels.
A bear market began six months later with the S&P 500 plunging 50% over a 21 month span.
A 16 month recession started in November 1973.
Could something similar happen again ?
YES, it’s possible, especially since the stock market is at all-time highs and overvalued as the Street expects a huge Trump stimulus.
Be forewarned.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:20,586;S&P 500:2,346;Nasdaq Comp.:5,825
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:20,66;S&P 500:2,355;Nasdaq Comp.:5,848
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ISSUES TO CONSIDER
– the prospect of big corporate tax cuts, deregulation, a big spend on the military and the infrastructure and the restructuring of long-standing trade agreements.
-the possibility they will take longer than expected, worst case be disappointing.
-the uncertainties of the repeal of Obamacare
-talk of privatization of Medicare and Social Security
-possible undermining of NATO and the European Union
-a trade war of sorts.
-lifting of sanctions on Russia for its incursion in the Crimea and actions in Syria, adding to questions already breached.
-continued internal polarization of America and the possible extension of such to other countries.
-intense economic stimulation by the Trump/Republican Congress stands to trigger a rebound of inflationary pressures forcing the Fed to bump interest rates sooner than expected.
-an increasing erosion of investor confidence in President Trump.
-the real possibility of Trump putting the country on a war footing to ensure patriotic support for the mid-term elections, or a pre-emptive attack on North Korea or Iran.
-the possibility, though remote at this time, that the Trump/Russia connection may blow up.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET – THIS IS SCARY !
“To be honest, I inherited a mess,” Trump said at his press conference yesterday, adding, It’s a mess… at home and abroad.”
Really ! If he thinks a growing economy, stabile financial and fiscal conditions here and abroad, limited warfare in the mid-east, he should have been President in 2009 when Barack Obama took over in face of a global meltdown, the worst stock market and economic collapse since the 1930s, war on two fronts, bankruptcies at the highest level on Wall Street, the potential extinction of the U.S. auto industry.
Is this man delusional ? Is he of sound mind ? Who could whine about what he has inherited in his first year as president ?
This is scary. President Trump heads up the most powerful position in the world, and he is acting like a psychotic.
Even Trump-friendly Fox news anchor, Shepard Smith, is stunned saying, “It’s crazy what we’re watching every day, it’s absolutely crazy. He keeps repeating ridiculous throw away lines that are not true at all….”
Wall Street isn’t concerned, if Trump gets kicked out or bails out in disgrace, they got V.P. Pence, who I think they really prefer anyhow.
I started in this business in 1962, and have been writing about the stock market and companies since 1968.
That covers just about everything that can happen … up until now.
President Nixon was paranoid, but he was a master politician with an understanding of domestic and international needs. His paranoia, ego and defensive demeanor brought him down. It took a long time as improprieties surfaced again and again over time to force him out of office on the threshold of impeachment.
damaging information JUST KEPT SURFACING, and I have a strong feeling that is what will happen with Trump.
The longer he refuses to release his tax returns, bash the press and skewer those who criticize him, the more people will suspect he is hiding something.
The Issue of a deep Trump/Russia connection just won’t go away, suggesting something big (und ugly) lurks. The House blocked the Democrat’s attempt to force Trump to release his tax returns. WHY is this such an issue ? What is being hidden ? If there is nothing to hide, why not release the returns and put the issue to bed ? The more he resists, the greater the suspicion.
The Trump administration detests checks and balances, and that is precisely why they are in place. Odds favor one or more constitutional crises this year as Trump’s marauders endeavor to impose their far right agenda.
Obviously, the Republican Party has been radicalized. No more reasonable debate leading to a compromise.
This is (so far) a bloodless coup, a rape and pillage of anything that smacks of social services, equal opportunity and compensation for people of color and of other than the male gender.
Conservatives no longer exist. I miss them, at least they were consistent and reasonable within reason. This mob is extreme, and in my opinion un-American based on what our Founding Fathers gave us, all the progress made improving on that since and the hundreds of thousands of lives that were given to preserve all that.
At some point, this disruption will adversely impact the stock market with the potential for a 35% – 45% bear market.
NOTE: Talk of privatizing a portion of Social Security for people under 55 years of age is making the rounds. The program has worked very well with funds invested in special issue bonds yielding 1.375% to 5%. Why screw with it. Human nature dictates investors tend to buy stocks at highs and sell at lows. What’s more, this idea is being floated with the stock market at all-time highs. What’s even more, Congress will be tempted in future years to increase the portion of Social Security funds allocated to stocks to satisfy projections into the future and justify its tapping the Social Security funds for other expenditures. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Corporate earnings (updated Feb. 11, 2014)
Factset now sees Q4 earnings for the S&P 500 up close to 5.0% vs. a Dec. 31 projection of plus 3.0%.
Earnings for all of 2016 is now projected to be plus 0.5%.
Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.9% on revenue growth of 7.5%. Q2 is projected at ao plus 9.1% and 2017 as a whole are projected at a plus10.3% down from earlier estimates of 11.4. Currently, the P/E based on earnings 12 months out is 16.9 x, which compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.4 and a 5-year P/E of 17.3% well above the 10-year average of 14.4%..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies: (UPDATED 2/13/17)
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of January 27, 2017, a reasonable risk is 20,361 a more extreme risk is 20,286 Near-term upside potential is 20,967 .
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: bullish
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Selective opportunity ! Risk is reality at some point
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 35%.
 KEY FACTORS: Speculative fever driven by expectations of tax cuts, lifting of regs., and lots of money dumped on economy.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Strange Press Conference-Unsettling

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 20,619
S&P 500: 2,347
Nasdaq Comp.:5,814
Russell 2000:1,399
Friday, February 17, 2017 9:12 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The market will open lower today. Was it President Trump’s press conference yesterday ?
Is there a growing sense of unease, that something is very wrong ?
Perhaps, but nothing that the introduction of His new plan for massive tax cuts for corporations and high-earners can’t upstage.
Christmas in February ? Why else would the Street be scrambling to buy stocks and dump bonds ?
Clearly, it can’t be that President Obama handed Trump a growing economy and rising stock market, a booming auto industry that when Obama took over in 2009 was on the edge of extinction along with all the big name banks on Wall Street in face of the worst bear market recession since the 1930s.
It’s Trump’s to lose from here. If he can pull off tax cuts, deregulation and get the do-nothing Congress to spend beaucoup bucks, the Obama bull market will continue as his extended bull market.
If his presidency implodes, in face of a scandal or other negative development, the market will take an ugly hit.
TAX CUTS
The Trump tax cut plan will be released shortly. Probably sooner than later to deflect attention away for Trump’s many problems.
It will promise dramatic cuts for corporations and higher income individuals. It should trigger a surge in stock prices.
If passed, these cuts, combined with an expected big spend on the nation’s infrastructure and its military will severely impact government revenue and force major cuts in other government programs, mostly those benefitting people in serious need of help.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:20,561;S&P 500:2,342;Nasdaq Comp.:5,762
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:20,673;S&P 500:2,352;Nasdaq Comp.:5,829
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ISSUES TO CONSIDER
– the prospect of big corporate tax cuts, deregulation, a big spend on the military and the infrastructure and the restructuring of long-standing trade agreements.
-the possibility they will take longer than expected, worst case be disappointing.
-the uncertainties of the repeal of Obamacare
-talk of privatization of Medicare and Social Security
-possible undermining of NATO and the European Union
-a trade war of sorts.
-lifting of sanctions on Russia for its incursion in the Crimea and actions in Syria, adding to questions already breached.
-continued internal polarization of America and the possible extension of such to other countries.
-intense economic stimulation by the Trump/Republican Congress stands to trigger a rebound of inflationary pressures forcing the Fed to bump interest rates sooner than expected.
-an increasing erosion of investor confidence in President Trump.
-the real possibility of Trump putting the country on a war footing to ensure patriotic support for the mid-term elections, or a pre-emptive attack on North Korea or Iran.
-the possibility, though remote at this time, that the Trump/Russia connection may blow up.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET – THIS IS SCARY !
“To be honest, I inherited a mess,” Trump said at his press conference yesterday, adding, It’s a mess… at home and abroad.”
Really ! If he thinks a growing economy, stabile financial and fiscal conditions here and abroad, limited warfare in the mid-east, he should have been President in 2009 when Barack Obama took over in face of a global meltdown, the worst stock market and economic collapse since the 1930s, war on two fronts, bankruptcies at the highest level on Wall Street, the potential extinction of the U.S. auto industry.
Is this man delusional ? Is he of sound mind ? Who could whine about what he has inherited in his first year as president ?
This is scary. President Trump heads up the most powerful position in the world, and he is acting like a psychotic.
Even Trump-friendly Fox news anchor is stunned saying, “It’s crazy what we’re watching every day, it’s absolutely crazy. He keeps repeating ridiculous throw away lines that are not true at all….”
Wall Street isn’t concerned, if Trump gets kicked out or bails out in disgrace, they got V.P. Pence, who I think they really prefer anyhow.
I started in this business in 1962, and have been writing about the stock market and companies since 1968.
That covers just about everything that can happen … up until now.
President Nixon was paranoid, but he was a master politician with an understanding of domestic and international needs. His paranoia, ego and defensive demeanor brought him down. It took a long time as improprieties surfaced again and again over time to force him out of office on the threshold of impeachment.
damaging information JUST KEPT SURFACING, and I have a strong feeling that is what will happen with Trump.
The longer he refuses to release his tax returns, bash the press and skewer those who criticize him, the more people will suspect he is hiding something.
The Issue of a deep Trump/Russia connection just won’t go away, suggesting something big (und ugly) lurks. The House blocked the Democrat’s attempt to force Trump to release his tax returns. WHY is this such an issue ? What is being hidden ? If there is nothing to hide, why not release the returns and put the issue to bed ? The more he resists, the greater the suspicion.
The Trump administration detests checks and balances, and that is precisely why they are in place. Odds favor one or more constitutional crises this year as Trump’s marauders endeavor to impose their far right agenda.
Obviously, the Republican Party has been radicalized. No more reasonable debate leading to a compromise.
This is (so far) a bloodless coup, a rape and pillage of anything that smacks of social services, equal opportunity and compensation for people of color and of other than the male gender.
Conservatives no longer exist. I miss them, at least they were consistent and reasonable within reason. This mob is extreme, and in my opinion un-American based on what our Founding Fathers gave us, all the progress made improving on that since and the hundreds of thousands of lives that were given to preserve all that.
At some point, this disruption will adversely impact the stock market with the potential for a 35% – 45% bear market.
NOTE: Talk of privatizing a portion of Social Security for people under 55 years of age is making the rounds. The program has worked very well with funds invested in special issue bonds yielding 1.375% to 5%. Why screw with it. Human nature dictates investors tend to buy stocks at highs and sell at lows. What’s more, this idea is being floated with the stock market at all-time highs. What’s even more, Congress will be tempted in future years to increase the portion of Social Security funds allocated to stocks to satisfy projections into the future and justify its tapping the Social Security funds for other expenditures. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Corporate earnings (updated Feb. 11, 2014)
Factset now sees Q4 earnings for the S&P 500 up close to 5.0% vs. a Dec. 31 projection of plus 3.0%.
Earnings for all of 2016 is now projected to be plus 0.5%.
Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.9% on revenue growth of 7.5%. Q2 is projected at ao plus 9.1% and 2017 as a whole are projected at a plus10.3% down from earlier estimates of 11.4. Currently, the P/E based on earnings 12 months out is 16.9 x, which compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.4 and a 5-year P/E of 17.3% well above the 10-year average of 14.4%..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies: (UPDATED 2/13/17)
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of January 27, 2017, a reasonable risk is 20,361 a more extreme risk is 20,286 Near-term upside potential is 20,967 .
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: bullish
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Selective opportunity ! Risk is reality at some point
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 35%.
 KEY FACTORS: Speculative fever driven by expectations of tax cuts, lifting of regs., and lots of money dumped on economy.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Tax Cut Announcement Due Shortly

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 20,611
S&P 500: 2,349
Nasdaq Comp.:5,819
Russell 2000:1,404
Thursday, February 16, 2017 9:12 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The Trump tax cut plan will be released shortly. Probably sooner than later to deflect attention away for Trump’s many problems.
It will promise dramatic cuts for corporations and higher income individuals. It should trigger a surge in stock prices.
If passed, these cuts, combined with an expected big spend on the nation’s infrastructure and its military will severely impact government revenue and force major cuts in other government programs, mostly those benefitting people in serious need of help.
It’s a no brainer – cut income and you must cut expenses.
It’s also known as “starving the beast,” something the neoconservatives have been trying to do for decades.
Conservatives I knew years ago would find middle ground, not this gang, they want it all for themselves.
The end result: a decreased standard of living, more polarization….and an increased likelihood of a homegrown insurgency arising from sectors in our society that have nothing to lose, because they have nothing.
Generally, 70% of our economy is generated by consumer spending. People living hand-to-mouth spend income immediately as it comes in. Choke off that source of spending, and the economy suffers.
Like it or not, to some extent, we are in this together. The healthier everyone is, the stronger we are as a country, and that is what makes for a GREAT COUNTRY, not a private party attended by a small percentage of the population.
ECONOMY:
Noting that the economy was chugging along at a “healthy pace, Fed Chief Janet Yellen hinted more rate hikes may be in order, nudging the odds up a bit for a bump in rates at its March 14-15 meeting. The Fed indicated after its December increase, the second in a year that the Street could expect up to three bumps up in 2017.
Treasuries fell and the U.S. Dollar rose, but Wall Street was not phased.
Yesterday was a good day for reports on the economy. Consumer Prices for January rose 0.6 pct., double expectations,, Retail Sales for February rose 0.4 pct., well above estimates, the Empire State Mfg. for February jumped to 18.7 , Industrial Production Index was flat in January, activity in the Housing Market was off slightly, but business sales outpaced inventory build. Thursday: Housing Starts for January – mixed, Jobless Claims last week – down 14,000, and the Philly Fed Business Index for Feb. was up sharply. Friday it’s E-Commerce Retail and Leading Indicators.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:20,547; S&P 500:2,342; Nasdaq Comp.:5,798
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:20,666;S&P 500:2,354;Nasdaq Comp.:5,833
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ISSUES TO CONSIDER
– the prospect of big corporate tax cuts, deregulation, a big spend on the military and the infrastructure and the restructuring of long-standing trade agreements.
-the possibility they will take longer than expected, worst case be disappointing.
-the uncertainties of the repeal of Obamacare
-talk of privatization of Medicare and Social Security
-possible undermining of NATO and the European Union
-a trade war of sorts.
-lifting of sanctions on Russia for its incursion in the Crimea and actions in Syria, adding to questions already breached.
-continued internal polarization of America and the possible extension of such to other countries.
-intense economic stimulation by the Trump/Republican Congress stands to trigger a rebound of inflationary pressures forcing the Fed to bump interest rates sooner than expected.
-an increasing erosion of investor confidence in President Trump.
-the real possibility of Trump putting the country on a war footing to ensure patriotic support for the mid-term elections, or a pre-emptive attack on North Korea or Iran.
-the possibility, though remote at this time, that the Trump/Russia connection may blow up.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
What are they hiding ?
The Issue of a deep Trump/Russia connection just won’t go away, suggesting something big (und ugly) lurks. The House blocked the Democrat’s attempt to force Trump to release his tax returns. WHY is this such an issue ? What is being hidden ? If there is nothing to hide, why not release the returns and put the issue to bed ? The more he resists, the greater the suspicion.
The Trump administration detests checks and balances, and that is precisely why they are in place. Odds favor one or more constitutional crises this year as Trump’s marauders endeavor to impose their far right agenda.
Obviously, the Republican Party has been radicalized. No more reasonable debate leading to a compromise.
This is (so far) a bloodless coup, a rape and pillage of anything that smacks of social services, equal opportunity and compensation for people of color and of other than the male gender.
Conservatives no longer exist. I miss them, at least they were consistent and reasonable within reason. This mob is extreme, and in my opinion un-American based on what our Founding Fathers gave us, all the progress made improving on that since and the hundreds of thousands of lives that were given to preserve all that.
At some point, this disruption will adversely impact the stock market with the potential for a 35% – 45% bear market.
NOTE: Talk of privatizing a portion of Social Security for people under 55 years of age is making the rounds. The program has worked very well with funds invested in special issue bonds yielding 1.375% to 5%. Why screw with it. Human nature dictates investors tend to buy stocks at highs and sell at lows. What’s more, this idea is being floated with the stock market at all-time highs. What’s even more, Congress will be tempted in future years to increase the portion of Social Security funds allocated to stocks to satisfy projections into the future and justify its tapping the Social Security funds for other expenditures. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Corporate earnings (updated Feb. 11, 2014)
Factset now sees Q4 earnings for the S&P 500 up close to 5.0% vs. a Dec. 31 projection of plus 3.0%.
Earnings for all of 2016 is now projected to be plus 0.5%.
Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.9% on revenue growth of 7.5%. Q2 is projected at ao plus 9.1% and 2017 as a whole are projected at a plus10.3% down from earlier estimates of 11.4. Currently, the P/E based on earnings 12 months out is 16.9 x, which compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.4 and a 5-year P/E of 17.3% well above the 10-year average of 14.4%..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies: (UPDATED 2/13/17)
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of January 27, 2017, a reasonable risk is 20,361 a more extreme risk is 20,286 Near-term upside potential is 20,967 .
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: bullish
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Selective opportunity ! Risk is reality at some point
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 35%.
 KEY FACTORS: Speculative fever driven by expectations of tax cuts, lifting of regs., and lots of money dumped on economy.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

White House Stumbles – Street Wary

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 20,304
S&P 500: 2,337
Nasdaq Comp.:5,782
Russell 2000:1,396
Wednesday, February 14, 2017 9:12 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Suddenly, the Trump honeymoon seems to be over……before it really started. Serious questions have arisen about Trump’s connections direct or indirect, with Russia, General Flynn’s resignation, security lapses, lies, misinformation, border tax issues, ethic issues, and the travel ban fiasco.
All this in just 26 days. Russia just won’t go away and the Street may now be questioning if in fact there is more to come. Clearly the media is pressing hard, sensing something of Watergate proportions.
Doubts may begin to surface about the ability of the Trump administration to deliver on its plans for tax cuts, a big spend and especially deregulation.
With the stock market hitting new highs every day, and the bull market 8 years old and up 251%, there is no room for major league doubts.
So far, none of these events is big enough to harpoon the bull market. They can add up though to hinder the effectiveness of this administration. If the Russia situation blows up, the bull market is over.
What’s my point ? Just proceed with an open mind, and have a cash reserve until this is resolved.
Odds favor a slowdown in the market’s advance, very possibly a consolidation and sideways trading range. A bear market will develop if the Trump administration implodes.
If not, more upside

ECONOMY:
Noting that the economy was chugging along at a “healthy pace, Fed Chief Janet Yellen hinted more rate hikes may be in order, nudging the odds up for a bump in rates at its March 14-15 meeting. The Fed indicated after its December increase, the second in a year that the Street could expect up to three bumps up in 2017.
Treasuries fell and the U.S. Dollar rose, but Wall Street was not phased.
Today is big for reports on the economy. (Consumer Price Ix., Retail Sales, Empire State Mfg., Industrial Production, Atlanta Fed Business, Business Inventories, and the Housing Market Ix.). Thursday we get Housing Starts, Jobless Claims, and the Philly Fed Business, Friday it’s E-Commerce Retail and Leading Indicators.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:20,417; S&P 500:2,324; Nasdaq Comp.:5,751
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:20,566;S&P 500:2,345;Nasdaq Comp.:5,798
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ISSUES TO CONSIDER
– the prospect of big corporate tax cuts, deregulation, a big spend on the military and the infrastructure and the restructuring of long-standing trade agreements.
-the possibility they will take longer than expected, worst case be disappointing.
-the uncertainties of the repeal of Obamacare
-talk of privatization of Medicare and Social Security
-possible undermining of NATO and the European Union
-a trade war of sorts.
-lifting of sanctions on Russia for its incursion in the Crimea and actions in Syria, adding to questions already breached.
-continued internal polarization of America and the possible extension of such to other countries.
-intense economic stimulation by the Trump/Republican Congress stands to trigger a rebound of inflationary pressures forcing the Fed to bump interest rates sooner than expected.
-an increasing erosion of investor confidence in President Trump.
-the real possibility of Trump putting the country on a war footing to ensure patriotic support for the mid-term elections, or a pre-emptive attack on North Korea or Iran.
-the possibility, though remote at this time, that the Trump/Russia connection may blow up.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
What are they hiding ?
The Issue of a deep Trump/Russia connection just won’t go away, suggesting something big (und ugly) lurks. The House blocked the Democrat’s attempt to force Trump to release his tax returns. WHY is this such an issue ? What is being hidden ? If there is nothing to hide, why not release the returns and put the issue to bed ? The more he resists, the greater the suspicion.
The Trump administration detests checks and balances, and that is precisely why they are in place. Odds favor one or more constitutional crises this year as Trump’s marauders endeavor to impose their far right agenda.
Obviously, the Republican Party has been radicalized. No more reasonable debate leading to a compromise.
This is (so far) a bloodless coup, a rape and pillage of anything that smacks of social services, equal opportunity and compensation for people of color and of other than the male gender.
Conservatives no longer exist. I miss them, at least they were consistent and reasonable within reason. This mob is extreme, and in my opinion un-American based on what our Founding Fathers gave us, all the progress made improving on that since and the hundreds of thousands of lives that were given to preserve all that.
At some point, this disruption will adversely impact the stock market with the potential for a 35% – 45% bear market.
NOTE: Talk of privatizing a portion of Social Security for people under 55 years of age is making the rounds. The program has worked very well with funds invested in special issue bonds yielding 1.375% to 5%. Why screw with it. Human nature dictates investors tend to buy stocks at highs and sell at lows. What’s more, this idea is being floated with the stock market at all-time highs. What’s even more, Congress will be tempted in future years to increase the portion of Social Security funds allocated to stocks to satisfy projections into the future and justify its tapping the Social Security funds for other expenditures. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Corporate earnings (updated Feb. 11, 2014)
Factset now sees Q4 earnings for the S&P 500 up close to 5.0% vs. a Dec. 31 projection of plus 3.0%.
Earnings for all of 2016 is now projected to be plus 0.5%.
Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.9% on revenue growth of 7.5%. Q2 is projected at ao plus 9.1% and 2017 as a whole are projected at a plus10.3% down from earlier estimates of 11.4. Currently, the P/E based on earnings 12 months out is 16.9 x, which compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.4 and a 5-year P/E of 17.3% well above the 10-year average of 14.4%..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies: (UPDATED 2/13/17)
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of January 27, 2017, a reasonable risk is 20,361 a more extreme risk is 20,286 Near-term upside potential is 20,967 .
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: bullish
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Selective opportunity ! Risk is reality at some point
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 35%.
 KEY FACTORS: Speculative fever driven by expectations of tax cuts, lifting of regs., and lots of money dumped on economy.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Market Needs a Rest, But Fever is Rampant

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 20412
S&P 500:2,328
Nasdaq Comp.: 5,763
Russell 2000:1,392
Tuesday, February 14, 2017 9:12 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Fed Chief Janet Yellen speaks this morning at 10:00.
I don’t expect a rate bump, but Yellen may hint at one if the economy heats up in face of Trump’s planned stimulus.
In terms of impact on stock prices, the Fed has taken a back seat in recent months in spite of its rate increase in December, the second in a year. Reportedly, the Fed will bump rates three more times in 2017.
That will depend on the economy and how fast Trump’s goals on tax cuts and increased spending take shape.
The market is on a roll, the Street senses a killing, and the potential for one of those runaway markets that reach outrageous levels of overvaluation.
Looking ahead to what can go wrong, that shouldn’t happen, but this is the stock market where human emotions go to extremes on the upside, as well as on the downside.
The stock market is historically overpriced, but can get more so. Serious investors will play hard, but keep a cash reserve in the event of unexpected bad news, as well as to take advantage of opportunities by buying one stock and selling another with less potential.
ECONOMY:
Four Fed officials speak today starting at 8:50 a.m. with Jeffrey Lacker, followed by Fed Chief Janet Yellen at 10:00, then Dennis Lockhart at 12:50 p.m., then Robert Kaplan at 1:00 p.m..
Wednesday is big for reports on the economy (Consumer Price Ix., Retail Sales, Empire State Mfg., Industrial Production, Atlanta Fed Business, Business Inventories, and the Housing Market Ix.). Thursday we get Housing Starts, Jobless Claims, and the Philly Fed Business, Friday it’s E-Commerce Retail and Leading Indicators.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:; S&P 500:; Nasdaq Comp.:
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:;S&P 500:;Nasdaq Comp.:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ISSUES TO CONSIDER
– the prospect of big corporate tax cuts, deregulation, a big spend on the military and the infrastructure and the restructuring of long-standing trade agreements.
-the possibility they will take longer than expected, worst case be disappointing.
-the uncertainties of the repeal of Obamacare
-talk of privatization of Medicare and Social Security
-possible undermining of NATO and the European Union
-a trade war of sorts.
-lifting of sanctions on Russia for its incursion in the Crimea and actions in Syria, adding to questions already breached.
-continued internal polarization of America and the possible extension of such to other countries.
-intense economic stimulation by the Trump/Republican Congress stands to trigger a rebound of inflationary pressures forcing the Fed to bump interest rates sooner than expected.
-an increasing erosion of investor confidence in President Trump.
-the real possibility of Trump putting the country on a war footing to ensure patriotic support for the mid-term elections, or a pre-emptive attack on North Korea or Iran.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
POLITICAL/STOCK MARKET
The Trump administration detests checks and balances, and that is precisely why they are in place. Odds favor one or more constitutional crises this year as Trump’s marauders endeavor to impose their far right agenda.
Obviously, the Republican Party has been radicalized. No more reasonable debate leading to a compromise.
This is (so far) a bloodless coup, a rape and pillage of anything that smacks of social services, equal opportunity and compensation for people of color and of other than the male gender.
Conservatives no longer exist. I miss them, at least they were consistent and reasonable within reason. This mob is extreme, and in my opinion un-American based on what our Founding Fathers gave us, all the progress made improving on that since and the hundreds of thousands of lives that were given to preserve all that.
At some point, this disruption will adversely impact the stock market with the potential for a 35% – 45% bear market.
NOTE: Talk of privatizing a portion of Social Security for people under 55 years of age is making the rounds. The program has worked very well with funds invested in special issue bonds yielding 1.375% to 5%. Why screw with it. Human nature dictates investors tend to buy stocks at highs and sell at lows. What’s more, this idea is being floated with the stock market at all-time highs. What’s even more, Congress will be tempted in future years to increase the portion of Social Security funds allocated to stocks to satisfy projections into the future and justify its tapping the Social Security funds for other expenditures. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Corporate earnings (updated Feb. 11, 2014)
Factset now sees Q4 earnings for the S&P 500 up close to 5.0% vs. a Dec. 31 projection of plus 3.0%.
Earnings for all of 2016 is now projected to be plus 0.5%.
Q1 earnings are projected to increase 9.9% on revenue growth of 7.5%. Q2 is projected at ao plus 9.1% and 2017 as a whole are projected at a plus10.3% down from earlier estimates of 11.4. Currently, the P/E based on earnings 12 months out is 16.9 x, which compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.4 and a 5-year P/E of 17.3% well above the 10-year average of 14.4%..
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MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies: (UPDATED 2/13/17)
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of January 27, 2017, a reasonable risk is 20,361 a more extreme risk is 20,286 Near-term upside potential is 20,967 .
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 STATUS OF MARKET: bullish
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Selective opportunity ! Risk is reality at some point
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 35%.
 KEY FACTORS: Speculative fever driven by expectations of tax cuts, lifting of regs., and lots of money dumped on economy.
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Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
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George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.