Which Trump Will Show Up on Jan. 20 ?

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:18,589
S&P 500: 2,163
Nasdaq Comp.:5,251
Russell 2000:1,282
Thursday, November 10, 2016 7:55 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Interesting – the DJIA rose 444 points (2.5%) the two days prior to the election after the FBI exonerated Secretary Clinton on a new batch of e-mails. The Street was relieved, since it felt more comfortable with her as president than Donald Trump.
So Secy. Clinton loses Tuesday night, and after some overnight angst, the market surges another 256 Points yesterday.
So what does all this mean ? How much better can things get with both the economic expansion and bull market well into their seventh year, the latter up 225%.
By January 20, the Republican Party will control the presidency both houses of Congress and shortly the Supreme Court.
That means they can pursue their agenda aggressively. Trump will want to spend on some things, cut on others. Democrats and deficit hawks in Congress may have other ideas.
Right now it is chill out time. President Obama and Secretary Clinton have wished President-elect Trump well and the Street is buying “Trump stocks” and selling stocks even bonds that will become casualties of a new untethered Administration.
Infrastructure stocks are up sharply in anticipation of big spending there, though they were on Clinton’s radar screen, as well.
Companies that stand to benefit from a rush to lift regulations, such as oil refiners, drugs, steel and banks are attracting feverish buying..
Renewable energy stocks are getting hit, as are bonds which are being dumped in favor of stocks (see iShares 20-year Treasury ETF below).
Healthcare companies are vulnerable, since Trump has promised to repeal Obamacare, though it almost has to be replaced, since 13 million are enrolled, 20 million including children, etc.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The shock of Trump’s unexpected win was absorbed in international markets overnight, enabling the markets here to stabilize. When the Street began to hone in on prospective Trump beneficiaries, the market got legs.
This kind of “rush” can continue, off and on as speculation festers and until reality sets in. Trump has promised to do some very unpopular and polarizing things, repeal of Obamacare for one, sending illegals back to their former homeland, and gutting regulations. Then there is the mid-east, and trade agreements. How popular will it be to pay 30% more for soft goods, electronics if trade tariffs are imposed ?
“Establishment politics” takes all these issues in stride, no draconian moves. That is done for time-tested reasons, because things done rashly can have irreversible impact.
But the establishment has been sent packing, so it’s a new ball game, and the Street has yet to chew on that one.
We have a play-hard, but sit close to the exit market that can get wilder than anything we have seen.
The stage is set for extended uncertainty, because no one knows which Donald Trump will show up on January 20, who else will call the shots and who will expect pay-back for campaign support. The presidency is not like running a company where employees are expected to do what they are told or get fired, so it will be a challenge. If Trump sees the office as a platform for negotiating deals (compromise), it will go better than if it is a one-way street.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:18,351; S&P 500:2,143; Nasdaq Comp.:5,203
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:18,701;S&P 500:2,176; Nasdaq Comp.:5,266.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
THE BEST SIX MONTHS
The six months between November 1 and May 1, tend to outperform the six months between May 1 and November 1, labelled the “Best Six Months” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac which began tracking the pattern in 1986.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
iShares 20-Year Treasury ETF down 13% in 4 months
Long-term bonds have gotten hammered in the last three months. The iShares 20-yr U.S. treasury bond ETF has lost 13.3% since July. That’s nearly 6 times the yield an investor expected over 12 months. Obviously, bonds can be risky. Let’s not forget the name of the game is to buy low and sell high, which applies to long bonds as well as stocks.
A survey of economists reported by Bloomberg yesterday calls for U.S. inflation to surpass the Fed’s target in every quarter of 2017, which if even half true should depress long-term bonds even more.
The Employment Situation report came in Friday, 161,000 jobs were added in October, the unemployment rate was 4.9%.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of October 21, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,026 a more extreme risk is 17,986 Near-term upside potential is 18,481.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – trending to bullish
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Opportunity !
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 35%.
 KEY FACTORS: Uncertainty of election to be resolved in two days, earnings slide may be over.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Stock Trader’s Almanac
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Markets Must Now Find a Comfort Level

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:18,332
S&P 500: 2,139
Nasdaq Comp.5,193:
Russell 2000:1,195
Wednesday, November 9, 2016 9:08 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The world was shocked last night.
One thing about President-Elect Trump that most people would agree with is, he marches to a drumbeat no other president in memory marched to. If the world interprets that as “unpredictable” we are looking at ongoing uncertainty.
Perhaps (hopefully) he can be a president of all the people as he proclaims now. That’s going to be difficult based on his pre-election rhetoric.
With possession of the White House, Congress and the Supreme Court, the Republicans now have total control of direction of the country, to an extent, a lot that will happen globally.
They have a wonderful opportunity to proceed with a balanced strategy to change what needs to be changed, and improve what shouldn’t be changed.
Will they proceed carefully, or will it be a feeding frenzy – repeal of Obamacare, sent millions of immigrants back where they came from, weaken NATO, slash taxes for corporations and wealthy as well as funding for dozens of social programs, privatize Medicare and Social Security, etc.
For investors, this is highly important for the obvious reason, the stock market thrives on confidence, and dives on lack of it.
Now comes the analysis, of what went wrong for the Dems, and why the American voter opted for Trump.
Voters wanted change, want pols out, wanted good old days back, wanted the USA to kick butt, not take any crap, and make sure people know their place.
If that’s the case, why did they re-elect so many incumbents ?
What else is going on ? The pundits will chew on that for a long time.
TECHNICAL
Overnight markets have had a chance to take the punch and recoup some sense of stability.
The announcement of the Brexit decision hammered stocks in early trading June 24, but the stock market rebounded to new highs, though the damage to the Brits of Brexit worsens by the day.
Initially, the Street will want to rationalize that not much has changed. People still rise in the morning, put on their clothes, grab some breakfast and go to work……
Unlike eight years ago, the world economies are not in meltdown, so why not continue our economic recovery and maybe accelerate it with huge tax breaks for corporations, the repatriation of U.S. corporation profits parked abroad and spend it on the infrastructure.
The Street can find reason to override the drag of uncertainty, for a while.
I am not so sure the Street can treat the election results so glibly. To the Street’s credit, the bounce back from utter carnage is laudable, but is it realistic. We know NOTHING about what will transpire during the next four years, so realistically, the market must find a comfort level that discounts this lack of knowledge.
I expect an attempt at stability, even a rally, then lower prices. Risks for buying the sell off are high.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:18,101; S&P 500:2,113; Nasdaq Comp.:5,131
Risk of sell off starting mid-day are good, this time well below the support listed hers (DJIA:17,950; S&P 500: 2,096; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,069
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:18,336;S&P 500:2,141; Nasdaq Comp.:5,195.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
THE BEST SIX MONTHS
The six months between November 1 and May 1, tend to outperform the six months between May 1 and November 1, labelled the “Best Six Months” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac which began tracking the pattern in 1986.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
iShares 20-Year Treasury ETF down 9% in 4 months
On Wednesday, the Fed indicated that the case for a bump in interest rates has increased, but opted out of doing it this month. It looks like it will happen in December.
Long-term bonds have gotten hammered in the last three months. The iShares 20-yr U.S. treasury bond ETF has lost 9.1% since July. That’s four times the yield an investor expected over 12 months. Bonds can be risky. Let’s not forget the name of the game is to buy low and sell high, which applies to long bonds as well as stocks.
A survey of economists reported by Bloomberg yesterday calls for U.S. inflation to surpass the Fed’s target in every quarter of 2017, which if even half true should depress long-term bonds even more.
The Employment Situation report came in Friday, 161,000 jobs were added in October, the unemployment rate was 4.9%.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of October 21, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,026 a more extreme risk is 17,986 Near-term upside potential is 18,481.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – trending to bullish
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Opportunity !
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 35%.
 KEY FACTORS: Uncertainty of election to be resolved in two days, earnings slide may be over.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Stock Trader’s Almanac
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Any Surprises After Election Day ?

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:18,259
S&P 500: 2,131
Nasdaq Comp.:5,166
Russell 2000:1192
Tuesday, November 8, 2016 9:08 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If there was ever a doubt who the Street would rather see in the White House next year, it was answered yesterday. The market surged at the open following Sunday’s announcement by FBI director James Comey that it had reviewed the new Clinton related e-mails in question and it would not be bringing charges.
That is no guarantee that we will know who wins tonight or Wednesday, but a Clinton slide has been reversed giving her a good chance of winning.
Based on the sentiments expressed by the Street yesterday, a Trump win would crush the stock market Wednesday even though there are a lot of investors and investment professionals who are voting for Trump.
TECHNICAL
The surprise FBI announcement Sunday triggered panicky buying by investors who were on the sidelines and short sellers covering positions.
The news reversed a downtrend in stocks that appeared on the threshold of accelerating.
Now it’s wait and see, first who wins, then what happens after the vote is tallied.
There is concern that Trump would not concede, thus creating a crisis of sorts. As I understand it, the electoral college vote rules.
A Clinton win would bump the market higher at the open Wednesday, assuming
we have closure. A Trump win would initially hammer the market down to the Brexit
levels (DJIA: 17,063; S&P 500: 1,991; Nasdaq Comp.:4,579).
The Street has been so much concerned with who wins, that what happens
afterward has gotten little ink. A Trump win spells uncertainty for a long time, since we
know little about his policy focus and whether he could get it through Congress.
If Clinton wins, she may be faced with Congressional obstruction to Supreme Court
appointments and her attempts to implement policy – more gridlock.
Soooooo, the Street may re-direct its focus where if has been – to Fed policy
which is trending to higher rates, not just in December, but multiple rate increases in
2017, all assuming the economy picks up.
For months, Factset has projected a decline in Q3 S&P 500 earnings on around
2.2%. It appears Q3 will be a gain, not a loss, and a nice one of 2.7%.
That’s a nice swing from down to up. If it indicates Q4 will be positive and 2017 will
come in at plus 13% or better, it will erase much of the overvaluation in the S&P 500
that exists now. That is not a given. A strong U.S. dollar is cutting into multinational
earnings as are increases in wages.
For the most part, the market relies on the two “Cs” – comfort and confidence.
Those two have been very elusive in recent years, yet the bull presses on.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:18,127; S&P 500:2,116 ; Nasdaq Comp.:5,031
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:18,296;S&P 500:2,136; Nasdaq Comp.:5,178.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
THE BEST SIX MONTHS
The six months between November 1 and May 1, tend to outperform the six months between May 1 and November 1, labelled the “Best Six Months” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac which began tracking the pattern in 1986.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
iShares 20-Year Treasury ETF down 9% in 4 months
On Wednesday, the Fed indicated that the case for a bump in interest rates has increased, but opted out of doing it this month. It looks like it will happen in December.
Long-term bonds have gotten hammered in the last three months. The iShares 20-yr U.S. treasury bond ETF has lost 9.1% since July. That’s four times the yield an investor expected over 12 months. Bonds can be risky. Let’s not forget the name of the game is to buy low and sell high, which applies to long bonds as well as stocks.
A survey of economists reported by Bloomberg yesterday calls for U.S. inflation to surpass the Fed’s target in every quarter of 2017, which if even half true should depress long-term bonds even more.
The Employment Situation report came in Friday, 161,000 jobs were added in October, the unemployment rate was 4.9%.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of October 21, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,026 a more extreme risk is 17,986 Near-term upside potential is 18,481.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – trending to bullish
 OInvestor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:18,259
S&P 500: 2,131
Nasdaq Comp.:5,166
Russell 2000:1192
Tuesday, November 8, 2016 9:08 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If there was ever a doubt who the Street would rather see in the White House next year, it was answered yesterday. The market surged at the open following Sunday’s announcement by FBI director James Comey that it had reviewed the new Clinton related e-mails in question and it would not be bringing charges.
That is no guarantee that we will know who wins tonight or Wednesday, but a Clinton slide has been reversed giving her a good chance of winning.
Based on the sentiments expressed by the Street yesterday, a Trump win would crush the stock market Wednesday even though there are a lot of investors and investment professionals who are voting for Trump.
TECHNICAL
The surprise FBI announcement Sunday triggered panicky buying by investors who were on the sidelines and short sellers covering positions.
The news reversed a downtrend in stocks that appeared on the threshold of accelerating.
Now it’s wait and see, first who wins, then what happens after the vote is tallied.
There is concern that Trump would not concede, thus creating a crisis of sorts. As I understand it, the electoral college vote rules.
A Clinton win would bump the market higher at the open Wednesday, assuming
we have closure. A Trump win would initially hammer the market down to the Brexit
levels (DJIA: 17,063; S&P 500: 1,991; Nasdaq Comp.:4,579).
The Street has been so much concerned with who wins, that what happens
afterward has gotten little ink. A Trump win spells uncertainty for a long time, since we
know little about his policy focus and whether he could get it through Congress.
If Clinton wins, she may be faced with Congressional obstruction to Supreme Court
appointments and her attempts to implement policy – more gridlock.
Soooooo, the Street may re-direct its focus where if has been – to Fed policy
which is trending to higher rates, not just in December, but multiple rate increases in
2017, all assuming the economy picks up.
For months, Factset has projected a decline in Q3 S&P 500 earnings on around
2.2%. It appears Q3 will be a gain, not a loss, and a nice one of 2.7%.
That’s a nice swing from down to up. If it indicates Q4 will be positive and 2017 will
come in at plus 13% or better, it will erase much of the overvaluation in the S&P 500
that exists now. That is not a given. A strong U.S. dollar is cutting into multinational
earnings as are increases in wages.
For the most part, the market relies on the two “Cs” – comfort and confidence.
Those two have been very elusive in recent years, yet the bull presses on.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:18,127; S&P 500:2,116 ; Nasdaq Comp.:5,031
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:18,296;S&P 500:2,136; Nasdaq Comp.:5,178.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
THE BEST SIX MONTHS
The six months between November 1 and May 1, tend to outperform the six months between May 1 and November 1, labelled the “Best Six Months” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac which began tracking the pattern in 1986.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
iShares 20-Year Treasury ETF down 9% in 4 months
On Wednesday, the Fed indicated that the case for a bump in interest rates has increased, but opted out of doing it this month. It looks like it will happen in December.
Long-term bonds have gotten hammered in the last three months. The iShares 20-yr U.S. treasury bond ETF has lost 9.1% since July. That’s four times the yield an investor expected over 12 months. Bonds can be risky. Let’s not forget the name of the game is to buy low and sell high, which applies to long bonds as well as stocks.
A survey of economists reported by Bloomberg yesterday calls for U.S. inflation to surpass the Fed’s target in every quarter of 2017, which if even half true should depress long-term bonds even more.
The Employment Situation report came in Friday, 161,000 jobs were added in October, the unemployment rate was 4.9%.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of October 21, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,026 a more extreme risk is 17,986 Near-term upside potential is 18,481.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – trending to bullish
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Opportunity !
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 35%.
 KEY FACTORS: Uncertainty of election to be resolved in two days, earnings slide may be over.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Stock Trader’s Almanac
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks

PPORTUNITY: RISK: Opportunity !
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 35%.
 KEY FACTORS: Uncertainty of election to be resolved in two days, earnings slide may be over.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Stock Trader’s Almanac
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks

Ton of Cash on Sidelines – Big Upturn ?

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:17,888
S&P 500: 2,085
Nasdaq Comp.:5,046
Russell 2000:1,163
Monday, November 7, 2016 9:08 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
FBI PROBE – A REVERSAL
Having completed its 24/7 study of the new Clinton e-mails, FBI director James Comey wrote in a second letter, that there is no reason to bring charges against Hillary Clinton. He did make a point that he was holding firm to his July conclusion that Hillary Clinton and her team were “extremely careless” while handling classified material.
On October 28, Comey jolted the nation as it was going to early voting with a letter to Congress that new e-mails were discovered related to people close to Clinton and would have to be investigated.
Undoubtedly, the first announcement had an adverse impact on Clinton’s chances to win, Comey’s second letter will prevent further damage, but cannot undo the damage of his first letter.
Futures trading indicates a huge gap up in the market at the open. Obviously, this announcement was not expected so soon after the FBI’s first announcement of an investigation. While it was known that ultra-high speed computer software was deployed to review the 650,000 e-mails in question, an announcement in favor of Clinton was the last thing the Street expected.
Someone may have suspected something Friday as the market rallied until late day, when due to the negative overhang of news, it should have plunged.
TECHNICAL
There is no longer any question that the Street feels more comfortable with a
Clinton presidency, than a Trump presidency. A sizable “gap” open will
occur today, as a result of yesterday’s FBI letter.
Whether enough damage has been done by the FBI’s first letter to give Trump a win will be known Tuesday night, Wednesday Morning.
This is a game changer, it reduces the erosion of support for Clinton, but there may be more surprises. As the Street prefers, Clinton must still win, but then Trump must concede. Failure to do so, tosses everything back into an uncertainty mode.
Technically, it doesn’t matter, the electoral college results rule. There just would be a few days for that to sink in, ergo uncertainty and some weakness in the market.
There is a good chance now for a meaningful recovery. There is a ton of cash on the sidelines, and sizable short positions that will be covered with panicky buying.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:18,149;S&P 500:2,118; Nasdaq Comp.:5,119
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
THE BEST SIX MONTHS
The six months between November 1 and May 1, tend to outperform the six months between May 1 and November 1, labelled the “Best Six Months” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac which began tracking the pattern in 1986.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
iShares 20-Year Treasury ETF down 9% in 4 months
On Wednesday, the Fed indicated that the case for a bump in interest rates has increased, but opted out of doing it this month. It looks like it will happen in December.
Long-term bonds have gotten hammered in the last three months. The iShares 20-yr U.S. treasury bond ETF has lost 9.1% since July. That’s four times the yield an investor expected over 12 months. Bonds can be risky. Let’s not forget the name of the game is to buy low and sell high, which applies to long bonds as well as stocks.
A survey of economists reported by Bloomberg yesterday calls for U.S. inflation to surpass the Fed’s target in every quarter of 2017, which if even half true should depress long-term bonds even more.
The Employment Situation report came in Friday, 161,000 jobs were added in October, the unemployment rate was 4.9%.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of October 21, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,026 a more extreme risk is 17,986 Near-term upside potential is 18,481.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – trending to bullish
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Opportunity !
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 35%.
 KEY FACTORS: Uncertainty of election to be resolved in two days, earnings slide may be over.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Stock Trader’s Almanac
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks

Market Should Plunge, May Rally Instead

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:17,930
S&P 500: 2,088
Nasdaq Comp.:5,058
Russell 2000:1,156
Friday, November 4, 2016 8:51 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
A Wall Street bromide suggests the winner of the presidency is forecast by the direction of the stock market between July 31 and October 31. The logic here is that the sentiments of the country and investors are reflected in the stock market. If positive, the market rises during this period, if negative, it declines. It is currently down 2.6%. The indicator boasts an 86% accuracy according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist CFRA.
That being the case, a Trump win is possible. However, there is that 14% where the indicator has been wrong, and it is worth noting that the market surged 9.8% to new highs in late June and early July, so some correction thereafter was justified.
THE BEST SIX MONTHS
The six months between November 1 and May 1, tend to outperform the six months between May 1 and November 1, labelled the “Best Six Months” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac which began tracking the pattern in 1986.
I am a big believer in seasonal patterns, I discovered the Stock Trader’s Almanac in 1968 when no one was crunching seasonality. Published by Yale Hirsch (Now by his son Jeffrey), the Almanac broke a lot of ground in pattern recognition.
The new edition is just off the press.
Over the last 50 years, the November 1 to May 1 period has sported 40 gainers vs. 28 for the May to November period.
This does not mean the best six months won’t have corrections and the worst six months rallies. It does suggest that counter moves in each period may offer opportunities to buy or sell going against the grain !
The best months can last longer than six months and vice versa. Bull markets and unexpected crises can alter the pattern.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
iShares 20-Year Treasury ETF down 9% in 4 months
On Wednesday, the Fed indicated that the case for a bump in interest rates has increased, but opted out of doing it this month. It looks like it will happen in December.
Long-term bonds have gotten hammered in the last three months. The iShares 20-yr U.S. treasury bond ETF has lost 9.1% since July. That’s four times the yield an investor expected over 12 months. Bonds can be risky. Let’s not forget the name of the game is to buy low and sell high, which applies to long bonds as well as stocks.
A survey of economists reported by Bloomberg yesterday calls for U.S. inflation to surpass the Fed’s target in every quarter of 2017, which if even half true should depress long-term bonds even more.
The Employment Situation report came in this morning, 161,000 jobs were added in October, the unemployment rate was 4.9%.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
FBI PROBE
The two major political parties are severely polarized, and the outcome of the election is more uncertain now than last Friday when the FBI announced it was extending its search into emails of people close to Senator Clinton.
The market has demonstrated it is more comfortable with a Clinton victory, since she is better known and her policies would track what we have seen in the last seven years. A Trump presidency is an unknown, which makes the market uneasy.
BEWARE !
Reportedly, the Justice Department has been pushing for a clarification of the FBI’s investigation of emails believed to be related to associates of Clinton, but which may include Clinton herself.
As a result, and again reportedly, the FBI is running a sophisticated key word scan of the emails. Investors must be prepared for the FBI to announce before the election that there is enough reason to probe in more depth in which case the market will get clobbered, and Clinton could lose.
But the FBI does not have to announce anything. Fox News and the Wall Street Journal, which yesterday AOL.com editors headline, “Sources say Clinton to be indicted in new investigation” did it for them.
Surprisingly, this news had little effect on the market. If the Street is more comfortable with Clinton, the FBI/Fox tag-team of should have crushed a jittery market yesterday.
TODAY.
There is a historically high level of cash on the sidelines. A Bloomberg Markets survey indicates fund manager cash reserves are 5.8%, well above 4.5%, the level that is considered “extreme.”
That combined with the seasonally strong November-to-May six months suggests opportunity. If the market continues to plunge, nimble traders could get a buying opportunity Monday. Their risk would be if Trump wins, which would be followed by a huge gap down Wednesday through Friday, since a Trump presidency is largely an unknown.
TECHNICAL
Investors have been rewarded for buying corrections in the stock market over 7 years. At some point, a correction will turn into a bear market.
It is a question of one’s tolerance for risk. Nimble traders can buy a crunch from here with a “close” stop sell in case they are wrong. Others can take a partial position getting rewarded if the market soars, but not decimated if it drops further.
Unless we have total political upheaval, or governmental paralysis worse than we have had to-date, this correction smacks of opportunity, especially if the market gets hammered.
There is the risk that the market could plunge to the Brexit announcement level (DJIA: 17,003; S&P 500:1,991; Comp:4,574). That is extreme, but I doubt the Street’s computers were programmed for events like what we are experiencing now.
Logically, the last thing anyone expects today is a strong rally. If that is going to happen today, it will develop in the first half hour of trading.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today: DJIA:17,861:S&P 500:2,073; Nasdaq Comp.:5,017
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:17,966;S&P 500:2,097; Nasdaq Comp.:5,076
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of October 21, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,026 a more extreme risk is 17,986 Near-term upside potential is 18,481.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q3, and 2016 earnings questionable with strong U.S. dollar. Forecasts for 2017 still for a gain in S&P 500 earnings of 12.9%.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Stock Trader’s Almanac
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Will the FBI Announce “Cause” ?

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:17,959
S&P 500: 2,097
Nasdaq Comp.:5,105
Russell 2000:1,162
Thursday, November 3, 2016 9;04 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
THE BEST SIX MONTHS
The six months between November 1 and May 1, tend to outperform the six months between May 1 and November 1, labelled the “Best Six Months” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac which began tracking the pattern in 1986.
I am a big believer in seasonal patterns, I discovered the Stock Trader’s Almanac in 1968 when no one was crunching seasonality. Published by Yale Hirsch (Now by his son Jeffrey), the Almanac broke a lot of ground in pattern recognition.
The new edition is just off the press.
Over the last 50 years, the November 1 to May 1 period has sported 40 gainers vs. 28 for the May to November period.
This does not mean the best six months won’t have corrections and the worst six months rallies. It does suggest that counter moves in each period may offer opportunities to buy or sell going against the grain !
The best months can last longer than six months and vice versa. Bull markets and unexpected crises can alter the pattern.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
BANKS NOT LENDING
Bloomberg’s daily newsletter reports that U.S. commercial banks held $754 billion in Treasury and non-mortgage federal agency debt at the end of Q2. Over that past year, more large and mid-size banks have tightened credit to businesses than at any time since 2009, when the nation was crushed by the housing/mortgage debacle.
What does this mean ? Could be banks are nervous about an economy which is a bit long in the tooth at 7 years and 3 months, or maybe they want higher rates.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Yesterday, the Fed indicated that the case for a bump in interest rates has increased, but opted out of doing it this month. It looks like it will happen in December.
The ADP Employment report came yesterday with September payrolls growing by 147,000 jobs, a good number taking the labor market close to full employment. A more important labor market report comes Friday at 8:30 a.m., the Employment Situation report. If good, we can be sure the Fed will bump rates in December.
TODAY.
Long-term bonds have gotten hammered in the last three months. The iShares 20-yr U.S. treasury bond ETF has lost 8.6% since July. That’s four times the yield an investor expected over 12 months. Bonds can be risky. Let’s not forget the name of the game is to buy low and sell high, wh applies to bonds as well as stocks.
There is a historically high level of cash on the sidelines. A Bloomberg Markets survey indicates fund manager cash reserves are 5.8%, well above 4.5%, the level that is considered “extreme.”
That combined with the seasonally strong November-to-May six months suggests opportunity. If the market continues to plunge, nimble traders could get a buying opportunity Monday. Their risk would be if Trump wins, which would be followed by a huge gap down Wednesday – Friday, since a Trump presidency is largely an unknown.
The two major political parties are severely polarized, and the outcome of the election is more uncertain now than last Friday when the FBI announced it was extending its search into emails of people close to Senator Clinton.
The market has demonstrated it is more comfortable with a Clinton victory, since she is better known and her policies would track what we have seen in the last seven years. A Trump presidency is an unknown, which makes the market uneasy.
BEWARE !
Reportedly, the Justice Department has been pushing for a clarification of the FBI’s investigation of emails believed to be related to associates of Clinton, but which may include Clinton herself.
As a result, and again reportedly, the FBI is running a sophisticated key word scan of the emails. Investors must be prepared for the FBI to conclude there is enough reason to probe in more depth in which case the market will get clobbered, and Clinton could lose.
Then too, even if Clinton wins, there is a possibility Trump won’t initially concede creating a short-lived crisis.
There is the risk that the market could drop to the Brexit announcement level (DJIA: 17,003; S&P 500:1,991; Comp:4,574). That is extreme, but I doubt the Street’s computers were programmed for events like this.
Our system of government was designed to work under most circumstances, but not if deliberate efforts to undermine it persist. There are written rules, and unwritten rules. There are lines that should not be crossed.
This stock market is selling 4.3% off its all-time highs and up 215% from its bear market bottom in March 2009.
Investors have been rewarded for buying corrections in the stock market over 7 years and especially big ones. At some point, the correction will turn into a bear market.
It is a question of one’s tolerance for risk. Nimble traders can buy with a “close” stop sell in case they are wrong. Others can take a partial position getting rewarded if the market soars, but not decimated if it drops further.
Unless we have total political upheaval, governmental paralysis, this one smacks of opportunity especially if the market gets one of those “gap-at-the-open” days.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today: DJIA:17,866:S&P 500:2,083; Nasdaq Comp.:5,061
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:18,037;S&P 500:2,119; Nasdaq Comp.:5,137
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of October 21, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,026 a more extreme risk is 17,986 Near-term upside potential is 18,481.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q3, and 2016 earnings questionable with strong U.S. dollar. Forecasts for 2017 still for a gain in S&P 500 earnings of 12.9%.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Stock Trader’s Almanac
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Days of Angst – Buying Opportunity ??

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:18,037
S&P 500: 2,111
Nasdaq Comp.:
Russell 2000:
Wednesday, November 2, 2016 8:48 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
THE BEST SIX MONTHS
The six months between November 1 and May 1, tend to outperform the six months between May 1 and November 1, labelled the “Best Six Months” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac which began tracking the pattern in 1986.
I am a big believer in seasonal patterns, I discovered the Stock Trader’s Almanac in 1968 when no one was crunching seasonality. Published by Yale Hirsch (Now by his son Jeffrey), the Almanac broke a lot of ground in pattern recognition.
The new edition is just off the press.
Over the last 50 years, the November 1 to May 1 period has sported 40 gainers vs. 28 for the May to November period.
This does not mean the best six months won’t have corrections and the worst six months rallies. It does suggest that counter moves in each period may offer opportunities to buy or sell going against the grain !
The best months can last longer than six months and vice versa. Bull markets and unexpected crises can alter the pattern.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
BANKS NOT LENDING
Bloomberg’s daily newsletter reports that U.S. commercial banks held $754 billion in Treasury and non-mortgage federal agency debt at the end of Q2. Over that past year, more large and mid-size banks have tightened credit to businesses than at any time since 2009, when the nation was crushed by the housing/mortgage debacle.
What does this mean ? Could be banks are nervous about an economy which is a bit long in the tooth at 7 years and 3 months, or maybe they want higher rates.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
This will be a BIG week for announcements on the economy and by the Fed, which releases its FOMC minutes from the September meeting at 2:00pm. Wednesday from its September 20 meeting. No press conference is scheduled. That suggests no bump in interest rates.
The most important economic news this week is on the labor front. The ADP Employment report came at 8:15 today with September payrolls growing 147,000 in September, a good number taking the labor market close to full employment. A more important labor market report comes Friday at 8:30 a.m., the Employment Situation report. If good, the Fed will likely bump rates is December. For a schedule of other reports, go to mam.econoday.com., there are too many to list here.
While the market seemed to ignore Friday’s FBI announcement on Monday, yesterday was a different story as a sharp sell off broke key support levels in all market averages, as buyers backed off sellers began to panic
The Clinton camp wants clarification of content from the FBI. The magnitude of the project of scanning and evaluating tens of thousands of emails makes that unlikely and any announcement even more unlikely.
But the FBI is under pressure to justify its Friday announcement. All it has to indicate is that its action was justified, and the market is headed south.
It is generally assumed a Trump victory would adversely impact the market, since little is known what to expect. Five days left. What would Yogi say ?
TODAY.
Interest rates have been rising (bond prices falling). This could be front running on a possible Fed bump in rates in December. Without a news conference Wednesday coming out of the FOMC meeting this week, it is highly unlikely the Fed would bump them this time around.
Then too, rising rates suggests the economy will heat up in coming months after the ugliness of campaigning eases. Clearly, it has adversely impacted consumer sentiments and sales.
Long-term bonds have gotten hammered in the last three months. The iShares 20-yr U.S. treasury bond ETF has lost 8.6% since July. That’s four times the yield an investor expected over 12 months. Bonds can be risky. Let’s not forget the name of the game is to buy low and sell high. At some point, the same thing will happen to the stock market.
There is a historically high level of cash on the sidelines. A Bloomberg Markets survey indicates fund manager cash reserves are 5.8%, well above 4.5%, the level that is considered “extreme.”
That combined with the seasonally strong November-to-May six months suggests opportunity. If the market continues to plunge, nimble traders could get a buying opportunity Monday. Their risk would be if Trump wins, which would be followed by a huge gap down Wednesday – Friday, since a Trump presidency is largely an unknown.
The Street will be watching the Fed at 2:00 p.m. Wednesday for clues about its plans for interest rates going forward and studying the jobs report 8:30 a.m. Friday, then it’s the election returns Tuesday night.
While the market seemed to ignore Friday’s FBI announcement on Monday, yesterday was a different story as a sharp sell off broke key support levels in all market averages, as buyers backed off sellers began to panic.
Buying opportunity looming if market gets smashed Monday ?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today: DJIA:17,866:S&P 500:2,093; Nasdaq Comp.:4,807
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:18,106;S&P 500:2,117; Nasdaq Comp.:5,171
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of October 21, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,026 a more extreme risk is 17,986 Near-term upside potential is 18,481.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q3, and 2016 earnings questionable with strong U.S. dollar. Forecasts for 2017 still for a gain in S&P 500 earnings of 12.9%.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Stock Trader’s Almanac
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Yogi Says, “It ain’t ………

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:18,142
S&P 500: 2,126
Nasdaq Comp.:5,189
Russell 2000:1,191
Tuesday, November 1, 2016 9:02 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
THE BEST SIX MONTHS
The six months between November 1 and May 1, tend to outperform the six months between May 1 and November 1, labelled the “Best Six Months” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac which began tracking the pattern in 1986.
I am a big believer in seasonal patterns, I discovered the Stock Trader’s Almanac in 1968 when no one was crunching seasonality. Published by Yale Hirsch (Now by his son Jeffrey), the Almanac broke a lot of ground in pattern recognition.
The new edition is just off the press.
Over the last 50 years, the November 1 to May 1 period has sported 40 gainers vs. 28 for the May to November period.
This does not mean the best six months won’t have corrections and the worst six months rallies. It does suggest that counter moves in each period may offer opportunities to buy or sell going against the grain !
The best months can last longer than six months and vice versa. Bull markets and unexpected crises can alter the pattern.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

This will be a BIG week for announcements on the economy and by the Fed, which releases its FOMC minutes from the September meeting at 2:00pm. Wednesday from its September 20 meeting. No press conference is scheduled. That suggests no bump in interest rates.
The most important economic news comes first on Wednesday (8:15 a.m.) with the ADP Employment report, then on Friday (8:30 a.m.) with the Employment Situation report. For a schedule of other reports, go to mam.econoday.com., there are too many to list here.
Based on yesterday’s market action, the market isn’t concerned about the Clinton emails. Amazing !
Uncertainty usually jolts the market, or simply puts a lid on prices. So far, the Street expects a Clinton victory.
The Clinton camp wants clarification of content from the FBI. The magnitude of the project of scanning and evaluating tens of thousands of emails makes that unlikely and any announcement even more unlikely.
But the FBI is under pressure to justify its Friday announcement. All it has to indicate is that its action was justified, and the market is headed south.
It is generally assumed a Trump victory would adversely impact the market, since little is known what to expect. Five days left. What would Yogi say ?
TODAY.
Interest rates have been rising (bond prices falling). This could be front running on a possible Fed bump in rates in December. Without a news conference Wednesday coming out of the FOMC meeting this week, it is highly unlikely the Fed would bump them this time around.
Then too, rising rates suggests the economy will heat up in coming months after the ugliness of campaigning eases. Clearly, it has adversely impacted consumer sentiments and sales.
Long-term bonds have gotten hammered in the last three months. The iShares 20-yr U.S. treasury bond ETF has lost 8.6% since July. That’s four times the yield an investor expected over 12 months. Bonds can be risky. Let’s not forget the name of the game is to buy low and sell high. At some point, the same thing will happen to the stock market.
There is a historically high level of cash on the sidelines. A Bloomberg Markets survey indicates fund manager cash reserves are 5.8%, well above 4.5%, the level that is considered “extreme.”
That combined with the seasonally strong November-to-May six months suggests opportunity, so long as there are no major unpleasant surprises.
We have five trading days before the election. Just because October is behind us, is no assurance we won’t have to cope with any more surprises.
For the obvious reasons, the market has been reluctant to sustain a meaningful move in any direction for long.
The Street will be watching the Fed at 2:00 p.m. Wednesday for clues about its plans for interest rates going forward and studying the jobs report 8:30 a.m. Friday, then it’s the election returns Tuesday night. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today: DJIA:18,071 :S&P 500:2,120; Nasdaq Comp.:5,173
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:18,207;S&P 500:2,137 ; Nasdaq Comp.:5,214
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of October 21, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,026 a more extreme risk is 17,986 Near-term upside potential is 18,481.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q3, and 2016 earnings questionable with strong U.S. dollar. Forecasts for 2017 still for a gain in S&P 500 earnings of 12.9%.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Stock Trader’s Almanac
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.