Good Economic Data Gooses Stocks

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 19,121
S&P 500: 2,204
Nasdaq Com.:5,379
Russell 2000:1,328
Wednesday, November 30, 2016 8:58 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
Recently, I mentioned infrastructure stocks as potential beneficiaries under a Trump administration, as well as banks, and drug companies.
Infrastructure stocks have had a big run, and while there will be buyers on pullbacks, there is risk about funding approval.
Infrastructure spending is not a new idea. One year ago, Congress approved a $305 billion bill for highways, bridges and rail lines. Worth noting, it was opposed by Republicans Cruz, Rubio, Paul and Democrats Warren and Carper. Does this suggest headwinds for Trump ?
The 16 sectors that will be competing for funds, if they are appropriated are: Energy, Transit, Ports, Aviation, Levees, Dams, Schools, Roads, Inland Waterways, Waste Water, Hazardous Waste, Public Parks and Rec., Rail, Bridges, Solid Waste, and Drinking Water.
The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) estimates it would take $3 trillion to fix our problems. That’s not going to happen.
It will be a stretch to get $1 trillion approved
This all has the potential for being one of the most inflated bubbles of all time. I give it a better than 50% chance. The burst depends on how rapidly
the bubble inflates.
Expect shock and awe January 23, the Monday after Trump is inaugurated, a feeding frenzy as Congress rushes to reverse everything that smacks of Obama. That can be unnerving for some, energizing for others.

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Corporate earnings.
Factset now sees Q3 earnings for the S&P 500 up 3.2%. On Sept. 30, its projection was for a decline of 2.2%. Q4 is projected at a gain of 3.3%, the year projected to come in at plus 0.1%. Earnings for 2017 are expected to increase 11.4%. Currently, the P/E based on 12 months out is 16.8x, which compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.3x.
…………………………………………………………………………………
Interest rates
Just in case anyone is interested, Fed Chief Janet Yellen told Congress yesterday to expect interest rates to increase “relatively soon,” referring to a continuation of economic growth and inflationary pressures. With regard to inflation, Yellen said, “We don’t know economically what is going to happen.” (Great !, just what we wanted to hear)
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TECHNICAL
Buyers were there to pick up stocks on a minor sell off late yesterday afternoon – no surprise.
The major market averages have been trending sideways for three days. A break above DJIA 19,144, S&P500: 2,210, and Nasdaq Comp. 5,403 should lead to new highs.
As I noted several days ago, the 7-1/2 economic recovery can serve as a solid base for accelerated growth goosed by the promise of tax cuts and big spend on infrastructure projects, as well as perceived benefits of the lifting of regulations.
Yesterday’s economic data confirms thia. The second estimate of GDP came in at a plus 3.25 (ann. rate), corporate profits are up 5.2%, Retail sales (chain, department, discount stores) up2.2% in November, the S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index up 0.4% in September, and the Consumer Confidence up 6.2 points to 107.1.
What could be better, promises of lower corporate taxes, less oversight, and BIG government spend on top of a sneaky strong economy ?
That’s what it looks like at this point in time. One thing about the stock market, it loves pie in the sky.
How so ?
Because it defies quantification, or at least until the truth is known. You see, this is more about human nature (greed, fear) and less about reality.
Really, a stock’s price is merely a matter of opinion, which is based on confidence or lack thereof.
This could be the grandest of all bull markets. It has a good start, up 231% in 7-1/2 years. It probably has a lot further to go, so long as the Street salivates over the prospects of a corporate windfall in coming years, and nothing gets in the way to prevent it.
When the end comes, no one will believe the few who warn of it, in fact, they will despise such seers for raining on their parade, despise them even more when the market crashes.
Like I said, it is all about human nature.
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SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:19,096; S&P 500: 2,201; Nasdaq Comp.:5,376
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:19,217;S&P 500:2,216;Nasdaq Comp.:5,406
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THE BEST SIX MONTHS
The six months between November 1 and May 1, tend to outperform the six months between May 1 and November 1, labelled the “Best Six Months” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac which began tracking the pattern in 1986.
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iShares 20-Year Treasury ETF down 14% in 4 months
Long-term bonds have gotten hammered in the last three months. The iShares 20-yr U.S. treasury bond ETF has lost 16.1% since July. That’s nearly 8 times the yield an investor expected over 12 months. Obviously, bonds can be risky. Let’s not forget the name of the game is to buy low and sell high, which applies to long bonds as well as stocks.
A survey of economists reported by Bloomberg yesterday calls for U.S. inflation to surpass the Fed’s target in every quarter of 2017, which if even half true should depress long-term bonds even more.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of November 27, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,556 a more extreme risk is 18,837 Near-term upside potential is 19,556
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 STATUS OF MARKET: bullish
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Selective opportunity ! Risk is reality at some point
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 35%.
 KEY FACTORS: Speculative fever driven by expectations of tax cuts, lifting of regs., and lots of money dumped on economy.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*MarketWatch – Michael Brush – 10 Biotech companies ripe for buyout courtesy Donald Trump
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Market Betting BIG on Future Legislation

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 19,097
S&P 500: 2,204
Nasdaq Com.:5,368
Russell 2000:1,329
Tuesday, November 29, 2016 9:11a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
Recently, I mentioned infrastructure stocks as potential beneficiaries under a Trump administration, as well as banks, and drug companies.
Infrastructure stocks have had a big run, and while there will be buyers on pullbacks, there is risk about funding approval.
Infrastructure spending is not a new idea. One year ago, Congress approved a $305 billion bill for highways, bridges and rail lines. Worth noting, it was opposed by Republicans Cruz, Rubio, Paul and Democrats Warren and Carper. Does this suggest headwinds for Trump ?
The 16 sectors that will be competing for funds, if they are appropriated are: Energy, Transit, Ports, Aviation, Levees, Dams, Schools, Roads, Inland Waterways, Waste Water, Hazardous Waste, Public Parks and Rec., Rail, Bridges, Solid Waste, and Drinking Water.
The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) estimates it would take $3 trillion to fix our problems. That’s not going to happen.
It will be a stretch to get $1 trillion approved
FYI: Recently, shipping stocks were suddenly thought to be infrastructure beneficiaries. Believe it , or not, DryShips (DCIX) got caught in a short squeeze and rose to $102 a share from $5 and is now back to $4.94 in 9 days. Top Ships (TOPS) rose to $8 from $2 and is back to $3 a share. Diana Container (DCIX) rose to $26 from $2 and is back to $4.
Imagine being sucked into buying DryShips at $45, $65, $70 – people were. That’s the, “I can’t stand it anymore” mentality. They see it running up and are compelled to buy.
This all has the potential for being one of the most inflated bubbles of all time. I give it a better than 50% chance. The burst depends on how rapidly
the bubble inflates.
Expect shock and awe January 23, the Monday after Trump is inaugurated, a feeding frenzy as Congress rushes to reverse everything that smacks of Obama. That can be unnerving for some energizing for others.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Corporate earnings.
Factset now sees Q3 earnings for the S&P 500 up 3.2%. On Sept. 30, its projection was for a decline of 2.2%. Q4 is projected at a gain of 3.3%, the year projected to come in at plus 0.1%. Earnings for 2017 are expected to increase 11.4%. Currently, the P/E based on 12 months out is 16.8x, which compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.3x.
…………………………………………………………………………………
Interest rates
Just in case anyone is interested, Fed Chief Janet Yellen told Congress yesterday to expect interest rates to increase “relatively soon,” referring to a continuation of economic growth and inflationary pressures. With regard to inflation, Yellen said, “We don’t know economically what is going to happen.” (Great !, just what we wanted to hear)
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TECHNICAL
At some point the stampede to own Trump stocks will yield to calmer heads. It is hard to stop a stampede underway based on what people hope will happen well into the future.
The market is taking a rest now. One push to the upside will start the stampede all over again.
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SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:19,051; S&P 500:2,195; Nasdaq Comp.:5,353
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:19,157;S&P 500:2,210;Nasdaq Comp.:5,383
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THE BEST SIX MONTHS
The six months between November 1 and May 1, tend to outperform the six months between May 1 and November 1, labelled the “Best Six Months” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac which began tracking the pattern in 1986.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
iShares 20-Year Treasury ETF down 14% in 4 months
Long-term bonds have gotten hammered in the last three months. The iShares 20-yr U.S. treasury bond ETF has lost 16.1% since July. That’s nearly 8 times the yield an investor expected over 12 months. Obviously, bonds can be risky. Let’s not forget the name of the game is to buy low and sell high, which applies to long bonds as well as stocks.
A survey of economists reported by Bloomberg yesterday calls for U.S. inflation to surpass the Fed’s target in every quarter of 2017, which if even half true should depress long-term bonds even more.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of November 27, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,556 a more extreme risk is 18,837 Near-term upside potential is 19,556
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: bullish
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Selective opportunity ! Risk is reality at some point
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 35%.
 KEY FACTORS: Speculative fever driven by expectations of tax cuts, lifting of regs., and lots of money dumped on economy.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*MarketWatch – Michael Brush – 10 Biotech companies ripe for buyout courtesy Donald Trump
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 19,151
S&P 500: 2,213
Nasdaq Com.:5,398
Russell 2000:1,347
Monday, November 28, 2016 9:11a.m.
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When does all this end ? It’s another leg up in a 7-year 8-month bull market that is now up 232%. No one knows how successful the Republicans will be at cutting taxes, lifting regs. and goosing the economy with infrastructure spend.
No one wants to be left behind, just in case most of this aggressive program can pass muster. If the light appears to be green, this leg up has a lot further to run. If, suddenly it appears that these programs will hit a wall, the market is headed south.
Usually the market hates uncertainty, now it relishes it, because there is “hope” for a big killing, the best of all worlds, lower taxes – Wow ! , no more shackles on Wall Street – and tons of government spend.
This stuff is better suited for an economy that is emerging from a recession and a stock market that is not over priced. It is bubble stuff, pie in the sky, a speculative frenzy that can only have a bad ending.
In the interim, the Street will milk it for whatever they can.
How much further ? No telling when the fever runs this high. There will be corrections that look like the party is over only to reverse back up to new highs.
Trump stocks were laggards before the election, so most have room to run further. This is not dot-com mania where the same group became overpriced, then became more overpriced.
Late stage bear markets are easier to read, since there is a pattern of buying/selling preceding the current pricing. We are in new territory now and must read momentum and how quick buyers jump in when the market tries to correct.
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Trump Stocks For Your Portfolio
The headlines are everywhere, “Trump Stocks for Your Portfolio.”
This happened when Obama won in 2008, and Bush in 2000.
The Street’s pros are generally wary about chasing a story or expected development that promises to be a big score for a stock or industry group sometime in the future, but those barriers fade quickly as temptation overwhelms reason, and the stampede begins.
Recently, I mentioned infrastructure stocks as potential beneficiaries under a Trump administration, as well as banks, and drug companies.
BIOTECHS
Drugs have been getting a big play, since it is assumed there would no longer be the risk of a cap on drug price increases. Yesterday, they were touted as acquisition* candidates*, since the small companies offer the big companies a chance to get into a research area quickly without years of development.
Generally, the drug group is up more than 560% in this bull market vs. 225% for the S&P 500. But, they sold off sharply from a peak in 2015, but seemed to have found a bottom for the past nine months, until the day after election day, when they took off.
These stocks have the potential to really run, primarily because the potential for some is open-ended, maybe they will come up with a cure for one of the big diseases ?
While a drug company’s key products are wading through trials, there is little to stop them, or until a submission gets rejected, then it is a vertical drop, a gap after trading is stopped during the day, or at the open.
All it would take to slow the run of the group as a whole would be for Congress to resist removing the cap on excessive price increases.
For further information and specific stocks, check the MarketWatch article at the end under “Note: Source…..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Corporate earnings.
Factset now sees Q3 earnings for the S&P 500 up 3.2%. On Sept. 30, its projection was for a decline of 2.2%. Q4 is projected at a gain of 3.3%, the year projected to come in at plus 0.1%. Earnings for 2017 are expected to increase 11.4%. Currently, the P/E based on 12 months out is 16.8x, which compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.3x.
…………………………………………………………………………………
Interest rates
Just in case anyone is interested, Fed Chief Janet Yellen told Congress yesterday to expect interest rates to increase “relatively soon,” referring to a continuation of economic growth and inflationary pressures. With regard to inflation, Yellen said, “We don’t know economically what is going to happen.” (Great !, just what we wanted to hear)
..>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
TECHNICAL
At some point, someone with clout will say that most or all of Trump’s grandiose plans will fall short, or may not get passed at all, and the market will take a hit.
We won’t know until we get closer to decision time by Congress.
IMPORTANT: While the economic recovery was below norm, the stock market has not been, rising 227%.
Currently the stock market is overpriced, but can rise higher based on speculative fever.
That 7 ½ years of slow torturous growth serves as a “base” for a potential surge in economic activity.
At this point, it’s all a big unknown. The bears say, lookout below !. The bulls say, all clear ahead !
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SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:19,087; S&P 500:2,207; Nasdaq Comp.:5,385
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:19,233;S&P 500:2,222 ;Nasdaq Comp.:5,421
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
THE BEST SIX MONTHS
The six months between November 1 and May 1, tend to outperform the six months between May 1 and November 1, labelled the “Best Six Months” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac which began tracking the pattern in 1986.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
iShares 20-Year Treasury ETF down 14% in 4 months
Long-term bonds have gotten hammered in the last three months. The iShares 20-yr U.S. treasury bond ETF has lost 16.1% since July. That’s nearly 8 times the yield an investor expected over 12 months. Obviously, bonds can be risky. Let’s not forget the name of the game is to buy low and sell high, which applies to long bonds as well as stocks.
A survey of economists reported by Bloomberg yesterday calls for U.S. inflation to surpass the Fed’s target in every quarter of 2017, which if even half true should depress long-term bonds even more.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of November 27, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,556 a more extreme risk is 18,837 Near-term upside potential is 19,556
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: bullish
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Selective opportunity ! Risk is reality at some point
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 35%.
 KEY FACTORS: Speculative fever driven by expectations of tax cuts, lifting of regs., and lots of money dumped on economy.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*MarketWatch – Michael Brush – 10 Biotech companies ripe for buyout courtesy Donald Trump
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Slow Recovery – a Foundation for Growth ?

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 18,867
S&P 500: 2,181
Nasdaq Com.:5,321
Russell 2000:1,315
Monday, November 21, 2016 8: 48 a.m.
NOTE: The next post will be November 27
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There is a lot of uncertainty accompanying Donald Trump’s election to the presidency. His lack of government experience is one. Running a government is unlike running a corporation where employees do as they are told, or else. Governments require more finesse, and clearly a lot of compromise.
So far, the Street is okay with this, opting to bet on the come and run stocks up. especially ones in industries that appear to be beneficiaries of his presidency.
Investors are faced with a decision to go with the flow, or take a defensive position until more information is known about Trump’s ability to cope with the stresses of the job and persistent opposition by Democrats, certain Republicans, the public, and the Press.
Trump Stocks For Your Portfolio
The headlines are everywhere, “Trump Stocks for Your Portfolio.”
This happened when Obama won in 2008, and Bush in 2000.
The Street’s pros are generally wary about chasing a story or expected development that promises to be a big score for a stock or industry group sometime in the future, but those barriers fade quickly as temptation overwhelms reason, and the stampede begins.
Recently, I mentioned infrastructure stocks as potential beneficiaries under a Trump administration, as well as banks, and drug companies.
BIOTECHS
Drugs have been getting a big play, since it is assumed there would no longer be the risk of a cap on drug price increases. Yesterday, they were touted as acquisition* candidates*, since the small companies offer the big companies a chance to get into a research area quickly without years of development.
Generally, the drug group is up more than 560% in this bull market vs. 225% for the S&P 500. But, they sold off sharply from a peak in 2015, but seemed to have found a bottom for the past nine months, until the day after election day, when they took off.
These stocks have the potential to really run, primarily because the potential for some is open-ended, maybe they will come up with a cure for one of the big diseases ?
While a drug company’s key products are wading through trials, there is little to stop them, or until a submission gets rejected, then it is a vertical drop, a gap after trading is stopped during the day, or at the open.
All it would take to slow the run of the group as a whole would be for Congress to resist removing the cap on excessive price increases.
For further information and specific stocks, check the MarketWatch article at the end under “Note: Source…..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Corporate earnings.
Factset now sees Q3 earnings for the S&P 500 up 3.1%. On Spet. 30, its projection was for a decline od 2.2%. Q4 is projected at a gain of 3.4%, the year projected to come in at plus 0.1%. Earnings for 2017 are expected to increase 11.4%. Currently, the P/E based on 12 months out is 16.6x, which compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.3x.
…………………………………………………………………………………
Interest rates
Just in case anyone is interested, Fed Chief Janet Yellen told Congress yesterday to expect interest rates to increase “relatively soon,” referring to a continuation of economic growth and inflationary pressures. With regard to inflation, Yellen said, “We don’t know economically what is going to happen.” (Great !, just what we wanted to hear)
..>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
TECHNICAL
Normally markets take a breather after a sharp run up like this. But the frenzy to get in on what is perceived as a new era for stocks is overwhelming, so the buying should continue, even if from a brief sell off.
The key here is, no one really knows what to expect, so not wanting to risk being left behind, they are buying stocks in what they think will be benefits of a Trump presidency.
Sound investing ? Only if it works.
The economy emerged from the worst recession/bear market 7 ½ years ago. Its growth has been below average owing mostly to the fact a lot of damage was done to our economic structure and consumer confidence.
The seriousness of the Great Recession, cannot be denied. All one has to do is read the last 200 pages of “Too Big To Fail “(Sorkin) to realize the biggest names in banking and finance were in utter panic about survival of their respective institutions and the country, as well. Incredible, unbelievable what happened in seven to ten days. Utter panic.
IMPORTANT: While the economic recovery was below norm, the stock market has not been, rising 227%.
Currently the stock market is overpriced, but can rise higher based on speculative fever.
That 7 ½ years of slow torturous growth could serve as a “base” for a surge in economic activity.
At this point, it’s all a big unknown. The bears say, lookout below !. The bulls say, all clear ahead !
There is a lot of animosity for president-elect Trump, based on an ugly divisive campaign, F.B.I. Comey’s untimely intrusion, and the fact he lost the popular vote by one to two million votes.
But, if money can be made on his election, all but a few investors will go for it. Money rules. Should it be that way ? Depends.
Today, I don’t see a break down – not yes. I won’t be posting until next Monday. The only risk I can anticipate is an abrupt rally failure after a breakout here and a one-day sell off of 200 – 300 Dow points, which would indicate the BIG money is using current strength to bail out.
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SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:18,803; S&P 500:2,176; Nasdaq Comp.:5,301
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:18,917;S&P 500:2,187 ;Nasdaq Comp.:5,331
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
THE BEST SIX MONTHS
The six months between November 1 and May 1, tend to outperform the six months between May 1 and November 1, labelled the “Best Six Months” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac which began tracking the pattern in 1986.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
iShares 20-Year Treasury ETF down 14% in 4 months
Long-term bonds have gotten hammered in the last three months. The iShares 20-yr U.S. treasury bond ETF has lost 14.6% since July. That’s nearly 6 times the yield an investor expected over 12 months. Obviously, bonds can be risky. Let’s not forget the name of the game is to buy low and sell high, which applies to long bonds as well as stocks.
A survey of economists reported by Bloomberg yesterday calls for U.S. inflation to surpass the Fed’s target in every quarter of 2017, which if even half true should depress long-term bonds even more.
The Employment Situation report came in Friday, 161,000 jobs were added in October, the unemployment rate was 4.9%.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of November 11, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,401 a more extreme risk is 18,354 Near-term upside potential is 19,017
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – trending to bullish
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Opportunity !
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 35%.
 KEY FACTORS: Uncertainty of election to be resolved in two days, earnings slide may be over.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*MarketWatch – Michael Brush – 10 Biotech companies ripe for buyout courtesy Donald Trump
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Fever Still Running High

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 18,903
S&P 500: 2,187
Nasdaq Com.:5,333
Russell 2000:1,309
Friday, November 18, 2016 9:08 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Trump Stocks For Your Portfolio
The headlines are everywhere, “Trump Stocks for Your Portfolio.”
This happened when Obama won in 2008, and Bush in 2000. The Street’s pros are generally wary about chasing a story or expected development that promises to be a big score for a stock or industry group sometime in the future, but those barriers fade quickly as temptation overwhelms reason, and the stampede begins.
Recently, I mentioned infrastructure stocks as potential beneficiaries under a Trump administration, as well as bank, and drug companies.
BIOTECHS
Drugs have been getting a big play, since it is assumed there would no longer be the risk of a cap on drug price increases. Yesterday, they were touted as acquisition* candidates*, since the small companies offer the big companies a chance to get into a research area quickly without years of development.
Generally, the drug group is up more than 560% in this bull market vs. 225% for the S&P 500. But, they sold off sharply from a peak in 2015, but seemed to have found a bottom for the past nine months, until the day after election day, when they took off.
These stocks have the potential to really run, primarily because the potential for some is open-ended, maybe they will come up with a cure for one of the big diseases ?
While a drug company’s key products are wading through trials, there is little to stop them, or until a submission gets rejected, then it is a vertical drop, a gap after trading is stopped during the day, or at the open.
All it would take to slow the run of the group as a whole would be for Congress to resist removing the cap on excessive price increases.
For further information and specific stocks, check the MarketWatch article at the end under “Note: Source…..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Corporate earnings.
Factset now sees Q3 earnings for the S&P 500 up 2.9% well ahead of negative projections several months ago. Q4 is projected at a gain of 3.6%, the year projected to come in at 0.2%. Earnings for 2017 are expected to increase 11.4%. Currently, the P/E based on 12 months out is 16.6x, which compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.3x.
…………………………………………………………………………………
Interest rates
Just in case anyone is interested, Fed Chief Janet Yellen told Congress yesterday to expect interest rates to increase “relatively soon,” referring to a continuation of economic growth and inflationary pressures. With regard to inflation, Yellen said, “We don’t know economically what is going to happen.” (Great !, just what we wanted to hear)
..>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
TECHNICAL
Normally markets take a breather after a sharp run up like this. But the frenzy to get in on what is perceived as a new era for stocks is overwhelming, so the buying should continue, even if from a brief sell off.
The key here is, no one really knows what to expect, so not wanting to risk being left behind, they are buying stocks in what they think will be benefits of a Trump presidency.
Sound investing ? Only if it works.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:18,851; S&P 500:2,178; Nasdaq Comp.:5,311
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:18,997;S&P 500:2197;Nasdaq Comp.:5,360.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
THE BEST SIX MONTHS
The six months between November 1 and May 1, tend to outperform the six months between May 1 and November 1, labelled the “Best Six Months” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac which began tracking the pattern in 1986.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
iShares 20-Year Treasury ETF down 14% in 4 months
Long-term bonds have gotten hammered in the last three months. The iShares 20-yr U.S. treasury bond ETF has lost 14.6% since July. That’s nearly 6 times the yield an investor expected over 12 months. Obviously, bonds can be risky. Let’s not forget the name of the game is to buy low and sell high, which applies to long bonds as well as stocks.
A survey of economists reported by Bloomberg yesterday calls for U.S. inflation to surpass the Fed’s target in every quarter of 2017, which if even half true should depress long-term bonds even more.
The Employment Situation report came in Friday, 161,000 jobs were added in October, the unemployment rate was 4.9%.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of November 11, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,401 a more extreme risk is 18,354 Near-term upside potential is 19,017
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – trending to bullish
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Opportunity !
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 35%.
 KEY FACTORS: Uncertainty of election to be resolved in two days, earnings slide may be over.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*MarketWatch – Michael Brush – 10 Biotech companies ripe for buyout courtesy Donald Trump
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Betting on Lower Taxes, Big Spend

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 18,868
S&P 500: 2,176
Nasdaq Com.:5,294
Russell 2000:1,302
Thursday, November 17, 2016 9:11 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The Street is in a hurry to buy, expecting the Trump Administration and the Republican Congress will slash taxes, lift regs., and spend a trillion dollars on the infrastructure. The buying can persist off and on for many months until it knows whether or not all, part of, or none of all this happens.
This can be a bonanza for corporate earnings – a surge in revenues along with significantly lower taxes, the latter for most corporations, the former for industries that benefit from the spend.
That’s the bullish side of the issue.
The bearish side is there is no justification for this post-election surge if none or only part of the scenario happens, and that won’t be known for at least a year. The market was somewhat overvalued before the surge.
It makes a good story in the interim, and there is nothing the Street likes more than a good story.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Corporate earnings.
Factset now sees Q3 earnings for the S&P 500 up 2.9% well ahead of negative projections several months ago. Q4 is projected at a gain of 3.6%, the year projected to come in at 0.2%. Earnings for 2017 are expected to increase 11.4%. Currently, the P/E based on 12 months out is 16.6x, which compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.3x.
..>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
TECHNICAL
The market is in a brief pause after its seven day run up. It caught the Street by surprise (self included), and the question investors face now is, buy after a sharp run up, or wait for a pullback ?
Speculative fever is mounting as is pressure on money managers to get in on this. What if the market really soars 20%, or 40% ?
Tough call !
If the Trump Administration fails to achieve most of its goals, this market is very over priced and especially if it goes higher in anticipation of success.
An individual investor, traders, hedge funds, etc. can bail out quickly if he/she sees trouble. Fund managers can’t.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:18,841; S&P 500:2,175; Nasdaq Comp.:5,290
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:18,919;S&P 500:2,186;Nasdaq Comp.:5,311.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
THE BEST SIX MONTHS
The six months between November 1 and May 1, tend to outperform the six months between May 1 and November 1, labelled the “Best Six Months” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac which began tracking the pattern in 1986.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
iShares 20-Year Treasury ETF down 14% in 4 months
Long-term bonds have gotten hammered in the last three months. The iShares 20-yr U.S. treasury bond ETF has lost 14.6% since July. That’s nearly 6 times the yield an investor expected over 12 months. Obviously, bonds can be risky. Let’s not forget the name of the game is to buy low and sell high, which applies to long bonds as well as stocks.
A survey of economists reported by Bloomberg yesterday calls for U.S. inflation to surpass the Fed’s target in every quarter of 2017, which if even half true should depress long-term bonds even more.
The Employment Situation report came in Friday, 161,000 jobs were added in October, the unemployment rate was 4.9%.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of November 11, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,401 a more extreme risk is 18,354 Near-term upside potential is 19,017
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – trending to bullish
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Opportunity !
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 35%.
 KEY FACTORS: Uncertainty of election to be resolved in two days, earnings slide may be over.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Stock Trader’s Almanac
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

A Drink After Work, or a Party ?

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 18,923
S&P 500: 2,180
Nasdaq Com.:5,275
Russell 2000:1,302
Wednesday, November 16, 2016 9:11 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
No one knows for sure what will happen, not even the Shadow.
This is a slugfest between uncertainty and speculative fever, driven by investors’ pondering the “what if” – taxes are reduced, Congress approves megabucks for military and infrastructure spend, regs are lifted opening the door for stuff to happen at warp speed !!
What are the odds this can happen ? There is an element out there with a lot of money to invest that doesn’t care about the odds whether all this can happen, it is willing to roll the dice. Hot money !
REALISTICALLY
It will take years for a huge increase in spending, corporate tax cuts, and reduced regulations to become reality at the bottom lines of corporations, and that assumes Congress goes along with Trumps plans.
Republicans control the Senate by a narrow margin of 52-48. Trump won’t have an easy go of it, he will encounter deficit hawks in his own party and Democrats who are not going to rubber stamp everything he proposes.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Corporate earnings.
Factset now sees Q3 earnings for the S&P 500 up 2.9% well ahead of negative projections several months ago. Q4 is projected at a gain of 3.6%, the year projected to come in at 0.2%. Earnings for 2017 are expected to increase 11.4%. Currently, the P/E based on 12 months out is 16.6x, which compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.3x.
TECHNICAL
The surge in the small company Russell 2000 may be a flash in the pan, or the beginning of a speculative binge. From the lows Wednesday, Nov. 9 to yesterday’s close, the market averages rose: DJIA +3.4%, S&P 500: +1.8%, Nasdaq Comp. +1.4%, and the small company Russell 2000 +10.0%.
While the S&P 500 is historically overvalued, it can become more so, if the Street looks out to what it perceives as greater government spending and increasing corporate profits.
BUT, few meaningful up legs in the stock market occur in a straight line.
The seriousness of this up move will be signaled by whether buyers pounce on stocks immediately when they try to correct.
A word of caution. There is new found euphoria on the Street, hopes of great things happening, and they are willing to bet it will happen.
If the spending plans, tax cuts, lifting of regulations run into obstruction by Congress, the market will plunge to more reasonable levels, perhaps develop into a bear market.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:18,847; S&P 500:2,173; Nasdaq Comp.:5,261
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:19,003;S&P 500:2,193;Nasdaq Comp.:5,298.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
THE BEST SIX MONTHS
The six months between November 1 and May 1, tend to outperform the six months between May 1 and November 1, labelled the “Best Six Months” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac which began tracking the pattern in 1986.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
iShares 20-Year Treasury ETF down 14% in 4 months
Long-term bonds have gotten hammered in the last three months. The iShares 20-yr U.S. treasury bond ETF has lost 14.6% since July. That’s nearly 6 times the yield an investor expected over 12 months. Obviously, bonds can be risky. Let’s not forget the name of the game is to buy low and sell high, which applies to long bonds as well as stocks.
A survey of economists reported by Bloomberg yesterday calls for U.S. inflation to surpass the Fed’s target in every quarter of 2017, which if even half true should depress long-term bonds even more.
The Employment Situation report came in Friday, 161,000 jobs were added in October, the unemployment rate was 4.9%.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of November 11, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,401 a more extreme risk is 18,354 Near-term upside potential is 19,017
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – trending to bullish
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Opportunity !
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 35%.
 KEY FACTORS: Uncertainty of election to be resolved in two days, earnings slide may be over.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Stock Trader’s Almanac
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 18,923
S&P 500: 2,180
Nasdaq Com.:5,275
Russell 2000:1,302
Wednesday, November 16, 2016 9:11 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
No one knows for sure what will happen, not even the Shadow.
This is a slugfest between uncertainty and speculative fever, driven by investors’ pondering the “what if” – taxes are reduced, Congress approves megabucks for military and infrastructure spend, regs are lifted opening the door for stuff to happen at warp speed !!
What are the odds this can happen ? There is an element out there with a lot of money to invest that doesn’t care about the odds whether all this can happen, it is willing to roll the dice. Hot money !
REALISTICALLY
It will take years for a huge increase in spending, corporate tax cuts, and reduced regulations to become reality at the bottom lines of corporations, and that assumes Congress goes along with Trumps plans.
Republicans control the Senate by a narrow margin of 52-48. Trump won’t have an easy go of it, he will encounter deficit hawks in his own party and Democrats who are not going to rubber stamp everything he proposes.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Corporate earnings.
Factset now sees Q3 earnings for the S&P 500 up 2.9% well ahead of negative projections several months ago. Q4 is projected at a gain of 3.6%, the year projected to come in at 0.2%. Earnings for 2017 are expected to increase 11.4%. Currently, the P/E based on 12 months out is 16.6x, which compares with a 10-year average P/E of 14.3x.
TECHNICAL
The surge in the small company Russell 2000 may be a flash in the pan, or the beginning of a speculative binge. From the lows Wednesday, Nov. 9 to yesterday’s close, the market averages rose: DJIA +3.4%, S&P 500: +1.8%, Nasdaq Comp. +1.4%, and the small company Russell 2000 +10.0%.
While the S&P 500 is historically overvalued, it can become more so, if the Street looks out to what it perceives as greater government spending and increasing corporate profits.
BUT, few meaningful up legs in the stock market occur in a straight line.
The seriousness of this up move will be signaled by whether buyers pounce on stocks immediately when they try to correct.
A word of caution. There is new found euphoria on the Street, hopes of great things happening, and they are willing to bet it will happen.
If the spending plans, tax cuts, lifting of regulations run into obstruction by Congress, the market will plunge to more reasonable levels, perhaps develop into a bear market.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:18,847; S&P 500:2,173; Nasdaq Comp.:5,261
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:19,003;S&P 500:2,193;Nasdaq Comp.:5,298.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
THE BEST SIX MONTHS
The six months between November 1 and May 1, tend to outperform the six months between May 1 and November 1, labelled the “Best Six Months” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac which began tracking the pattern in 1986.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
iShares 20-Year Treasury ETF down 14% in 4 months
Long-term bonds have gotten hammered in the last three months. The iShares 20-yr U.S. treasury bond ETF has lost 14.6% since July. That’s nearly 6 times the yield an investor expected over 12 months. Obviously, bonds can be risky. Let’s not forget the name of the game is to buy low and sell high, which applies to long bonds as well as stocks.
A survey of economists reported by Bloomberg yesterday calls for U.S. inflation to surpass the Fed’s target in every quarter of 2017, which if even half true should depress long-term bonds even more.
The Employment Situation report came in Friday, 161,000 jobs were added in October, the unemployment rate was 4.9%.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of November 11, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,401 a more extreme risk is 18,354 Near-term upside potential is 19,017
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – trending to bullish
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Opportunity !
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 35%.
 KEY FACTORS: Uncertainty of election to be resolved in two days, earnings slide may be over.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Stock Trader’s Almanac
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Speculative Fever Heating Up

Speculative Fever Heating Up
Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 18,868
S&P 500: 2,164
Nasdaq Com.:5,218
Russell 2000:1,298
Tuesday, November 15, 2016 9:11 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Unlike President Obama, who inherited the worst recession and bear market since the 1930s ( down 55%), President Trump will inherit a stable economy and bull market that has risen 225%.
While both the economic expansion and bull market are aging by historical standards, there is room to run “if” a Republican Congress, packed with deficit hawks, allow him to spend trillions of dollars on the infrastructure and military at the same time slashing corporate and individual taxes, and gutting social programs to offset the cost.
Congress kept Obama on a short leash, but may open the spigots for Trump. Then again, it may not.
Drastically increased fiscal spending combined with tax cuts would accelerate economic growth, jack up the stock market, as well as interest rates and inflation.
One thing we have not seen in the current bull market is rank speculation. Under the right conditions, large cap mid-cap, small-cap, and micro-cap stocks can surge to absurd levels, as investors scramble to make the big bucks blinded by the fear of “missing out,” buying stocks at historically overvalued prices hoping to sell them at yet higher prices. Investors who missed the bull market would be drawn into stocks, just in time to cap a bull market off, as the smart money sells.
The Street isn’t waiting for an answer, racing to buy infrastructure, bank, biotech, aerospace/defense, oil refinery, industrial, and healthcare stocks driving the DJIA to new highs, as well as the small company Russell 2000.
REALISTICALLY
It will take years for a huge increase in spending, corporate tax cuts, and reduced regulations to become reality at the bottom lines of corporations, and that assumes Congress goes along with Trumps plans.
If the deficit hawks in Congress or Democrat obstruction reject Trump’s
efforts, it will be more of what Obama faced.
In 2009-2010, I expected the infrastructure to be the full focus of government spending during Obama’s first year in office, and published features outlining the need and which stocks stood to benefit. It was a natural. Most states would be beneficiaries, therefore politically attractive to all members of Congress. It didn’t happen. What monies states got for infrastructure were spent on other things.
The following infrastructure companies ultimately stand to benefit, though have now been run up in price and are overpriced. Due to limited space, I am listing them by symbols.
ACM, CBI, EMR, MTW, TEK, URI, CBI, FLR, GLDD, EMR, VMC
GLDD, KBR, URI, TTEK, KBR, MLM, JEC, MDR, IGF (ETF).
These are not recommendations, just FYI.
TECHNICAL
The surge in the small company Russell 2000 may be a flash in the pan, or the beginning of a speculative binge. From the lows Wednesday, Nov. 9 to yesterday’s close, the market averages rose: DJIA +3.4%, S&P 500: +1.8%, Nasdaq Comp. +1.4%, and the small company Russell 2000 +10.0%.
That spells speculative fever ! Regardless of when (if) taxes will be cut, regs. lifted, and monies approved for infrastructure spend, investors are scrambling to get on board.
The markets are anticipating a major fiscal stimulus. Investors are dumping bond funds and buying stocks. The iShares iBoxx$ High Yield Corp. Bond Fd (HYG) had an outflow of $2.46 bn last week.
The bull market that rose from the worst recession since the 1930s has been persistent, but without the wild speculative fever that has characterized bull markets of the past even though the market is up 225%.
All investors need to go nuts and buy indiscriminately is for them to sense stock prices are going to run away from them. They hate losses, but more so, hate to miss a big move.
This may happen now. They are suddenly thinking the government under Trump will be a big spender and create this runaway economy/stock market. In this business, where the price of a stock is more about perception, than reality, that can happen.
It shouldn’t happen, because there is no assurance Congress will accommodate Trump, but once that fever sets in it has to run its course.
The key is, no one knows what to expect. Wall Street’s computers and algos will have to be re-worked, and that favors the bulls.
Common sense dictates caution. It is too early to know how all this will play out. That’s not how it works when the Street senses a killing.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:18,786 ; S&P 500:2,158 ; Nasdaq Comp.:5,196
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:18,951;S&P 500:2,178;Nasdaq Comp.:5,253.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
THE BEST SIX MONTHS
The six months between November 1 and May 1, tend to outperform the six months between May 1 and November 1, labelled the “Best Six Months” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac which began tracking the pattern in 1986.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
iShares 20-Year Treasury ETF down 14% in 4 months
Long-term bonds have gotten hammered in the last three months. The iShares 20-yr U.S. treasury bond ETF has lost 14.6% since July. That’s nearly 6 times the yield an investor expected over 12 months. Obviously, bonds can be risky. Let’s not forget the name of the game is to buy low and sell high, which applies to long bonds as well as stocks.
A survey of economists reported by Bloomberg yesterday calls for U.S. inflation to surpass the Fed’s target in every quarter of 2017, which if even half true should depress long-term bonds even more.
The Employment Situation report came in Friday, 161,000 jobs were added in October, the unemployment rate was 4.9%.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of November 11, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,401 a more extreme risk is 18,354 Near-term upside potential is 19,017
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – trending to bullish
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Opportunity !
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 35%.
 KEY FACTORS: Uncertainty of election to be resolved in two days, earnings slide may be over.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Stock Trader’s Almanac
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Traders: Prepare to Sell on Strength

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:18,847
S&P 500: 2,164
Nasdaq Com.:5,237
Russell 2000:1,282
Monday, November 14, 2016 9:11 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Unlike President Obama, who inherited the worst recession and bear market since the 1930s ( down 55%), President Trump will inherit a stable economy and bull market that has risen 225%.
While both the economic expansion and bull market are aging by historical standards, there is room to run “if” a Republican Congress, packed with deficit hawks, allow him to spend trillions of dollars on the infrastructure and military at the same time slashing corporate and individual taxes, and gutting social programs to offset the cost.
Congress kept Obama on a short leash, but may open the spigots for Trump. Then again, it may not.
Drastically increased fiscal spending combined with tax cuts would accelerate economic growth, jack up the stock market, as well as interest rates and inflation.
One thing we have not seen in the current bull market is rank speculation. Under the right conditions, large cap mid-cap, small-cap, and micro-cap stocks can surge to absurd levels, as investors scramble to make the big bucks blinded by the fear of “missing out,” buying stocks at historically overvalued prices hoping to sell them at yet higher prices. Investors who missed the bull market would be drawn into stocks, just in time to cap a bull market off, as the smart money sells.
The Street isn’t waiting for an answer, racing to buy infrastructure, bank, biotech, aerospace/defense, oil refinery, industrial, and healthcare stocks driving the DJIA to new highs, as well as the small company Russell 2000.
REALISTICALLY
It will take years for a huge increase in spending, corporate tax cuts, and reduced regulations to become reality at the bottom lines of corporations, and that assumes Congress goes along with Trumps plans.
If the deficit hawks in Congress or Democrat obstruction reject Trump’s
efforts, it will be more of what Obama faced.
In 2009-2010, I expected the infrastructure to be the full focus of government spending during Obama’s first year in office, and published features outlining the need and which stocks stood to benefit. It was a natural. Most states would be beneficiaries, therefore politically attractive to all members of Congress. It didn’t happen. What monies states got for infrastructure were spent on other things.
The following infrastructure companies ultimately stand to benefit, though have now been run up in price and are overpriced. Due to limited space, I am listing them by symbols.
ACM, CBI, EMR, MTW, TEK, URI, CBI, FLR, GLDD, EMR, VMC
GLDD, KBR, URI, TTEK, KBR, MLM, JEC, MDR, IGF (ETF).
These are not recommendations, just FYI.
TECHNICAL
Traders benefitting from the surge in Trump stocks should take profits as the market soars.
I can see rank speculation festering and the possibility of a wild surge, which usually happens in the final stages of a bull market. While it is premature to get overly excited about Trump’s policies, it is premature to expect a bear market.
There was a lot of cash on the sidelines before the election. Managers of that will be pressured to put it to work. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA: 18,749; S&P 500: 2,157; Nasdaq Comp.:5,218
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:18,999;S&P 500:2,177; Nasdaq Comp.:5,281.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
THE BEST SIX MONTHS
The six months between November 1 and May 1, tend to outperform the six months between May 1 and November 1, labelled the “Best Six Months” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac which began tracking the pattern in 1986.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
iShares 20-Year Treasury ETF down 14% in 4 months
Long-term bonds have gotten hammered in the last three months. The iShares 20-yr U.S. treasury bond ETF has lost 14.6% since July. That’s nearly 6 times the yield an investor expected over 12 months. Obviously, bonds can be risky. Let’s not forget the name of the game is to buy low and sell high, which applies to long bonds as well as stocks.
A survey of economists reported by Bloomberg yesterday calls for U.S. inflation to surpass the Fed’s target in every quarter of 2017, which if even half true should depress long-term bonds even more.
The Employment Situation report came in Friday, 161,000 jobs were added in October, the unemployment rate was 4.9%.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of November 11, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,401 a more extreme risk is 18,354 Near-term upside potential is 19,017
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – trending to bullish
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Opportunity !
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 35%.
 KEY FACTORS: Uncertainty of election to be resolved in two days, earnings slide may be over.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Stock Trader’s Almanac
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Easy Does It !

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:18,807
S&P 500: 2,167
Nasdaq Com.:5,208
Russell 2000:1,251
Friday, November 11, 2016 9:11 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Regardless of party affiliation or preference, when there is a change in the White House, serious investors have to step back and objectively assess positives and negatives, winners and losers without bias. Tough to do, especially when you have a change as dramatic as the present one.
President-elect Trump has an opportunity to reduce hostilities and foster unity. Tough to do. Most of the Republican Congress wants to dismantle everything President Obama achieved, much of which had to be by executive order, due of Congressional obstruction.
Yesterday, President Obama, assured Mr. Trump, he would do everything possible to help him succeed. Really ?
This is more like two fighters touching gloves before Round One.
While President Obama inherited a billion dollar deficit, and the worst meltdown since the 1930’s, Trump will be inheriting a steady economic recovery, which can serve as a platform for faster growth.
It would be great if everyone could move ahead in harmony, but realistically, it won’t happen.
POLITICS will continue to block progress. Why would the Democrats help Trump & Co. trash ACA, Dodd-Frank, efforts to save the environment, Dept. of Education, foreign policy initiatives ? Then there is the appointment to the Supreme Court.Under Obama, the Republicans refused even to hear of a court vacancy until this year’s election. Why would the Democrats do anything differently ?
Help Donald Trump ? Congress ? Not for a minute. It will be “war.” It has to be, because the Democrats will be targeting the mid-term elections for payback – for survival.
If the roles were reversed, the Republicans would be doing the same thing, in fact, they did it in 2012.
So, all this wishing the other guy/girl well is a crock. These pols hate each other.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
TIMING
Right now, the Street has forgotten it preferred Secretary Clinton and is scrambling to buy “Trump stocks,” drugs, banks, oils, infrastructure stocks, and industries that would benefit from the lifting of regulations.
Bonds are taking a pasting, since the perception is that spending on the infrastructure and the military will increase dramatically, forcing interest rates higher.
The race to capitalize on beneficiaries of a Trump presidency is premature. It will take a year for any legislation to pass on infrastructure spending. What’s more most projects are not “shovel ready,” so why the rush to buy these stocks. Reversing Obama programs won’t be accomplished quickly.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:18,678; S&P 500:2,157; Nasdaq Comp.:5,161
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:18,907;S&P 500:2,181; Nasdaq Comp.:5,249.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
THE BEST SIX MONTHS
The six months between November 1 and May 1, tend to outperform the six months between May 1 and November 1, labelled the “Best Six Months” by the Stock Trader’s Almanac which began tracking the pattern in 1986.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
iShares 20-Year Treasury ETF down 14% in 4 months
Long-term bonds have gotten hammered in the last three months. The iShares 20-yr U.S. treasury bond ETF has lost 14.6% since July. That’s nearly 6 times the yield an investor expected over 12 months. Obviously, bonds can be risky. Let’s not forget the name of the game is to buy low and sell high, which applies to long bonds as well as stocks.
A survey of economists reported by Bloomberg yesterday calls for U.S. inflation to surpass the Fed’s target in every quarter of 2017, which if even half true should depress long-term bonds even more.
The Employment Situation report came in Friday, 161,000 jobs were added in October, the unemployment rate was 4.9%.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of October 21, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,026 a more extreme risk is 17,986 Near-term upside potential is 18,481.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – trending to bullish
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Opportunity !
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 35%.
 KEY FACTORS: Uncertainty of election to be resolved in two days, earnings slide may be over.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Stock Trader’s Almanac
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.