Volatility to Increase

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:18,143
S&P 500: 2,151
Nasdaq Comp.:5,269
Russell 2000: 1,237
Friday, September 30, 2016 9:11 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
WHAT COULD HURT THE MARKET
-The uncertainty created by a dead heat in the race for the presidency.
-Q3 earnings reports in October, which are expected to mark the sixth straight quarterly decline for the S&P 500.
-a downward revision of 2017’s S&P 500 earnings, currently expected to increase 13.1%. Oil industry earnings have been crushed over the last two years, punishing the S&P 500 earnings as a group. But, based on $55 WTI oil price projections, the oil industry stands to give back to the overall earnings for the 500, generating a 13.1% gain in 2017. We’ll see.
-if the Street suddenly realizes Fed doesn’t have an exit strategy, never did.
-a recession in Europe. Numbers starting to stink. Markit flash Eurozone PMI at 20-mo. Low Sept; Germany PMI service sector slowest 16 mo..
Reportedly, three-quarters of UK CEOs surveyed by KPMG are considering relocating HQs due to Brexit. The British pound has been getting pounded.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
THE FED THIS WEEK
A big part of yesterday’s sudden decline was Deutsche Bank’s woes, but the Fed wasn’t about to cede any impact-turf. Fed’s Patrick Harker sees a December hike, Dennis Lockhart hints it come sooner. Jerome Powell isn’t in a hurry.
Is this helpful ? Wouldn’t it be better if they all refrained from an opinion on rates until the release of FOMC minutes ? Really, a decision will not be known until that point anyhow. They never has an exit strategy which is bad enough. To make matters worse, they feel compelled to micromanage the market. Very, very dangerous !
TODAY
The market took an ugly hit yesterday, partly due to Deutsche Bank’s woes, as well as to commentary by certain Fed officials about the timing of the next bump in rates.
The Street should know better by now not to take seriously contradictory statements by different members of the Fed, and simply wait for the FOMC’s decision.
Deutsche Bank’s crisis is scary in that it triggers fear of a domino effect among financial institutions, but Europe was in worse crisis in 2008 and survived. Aside from being one of Europe’s most thinly capitalized banks, Deutsche has been threatened by the U.S. Dept. of Justice with a $14 billion fine, stemming from transgressions involving U.S. mortgage backed securities ten years ago.
Two days ago we had a positive pattern shaping up for the major market averages, but the crunch yesterday recycled us to neutral. The market needs a good day to repair yesterday’s damage.
On the negative, the DJIA now needs to hold above 17,990 and the S&P 500 above 2,114. Traders only.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:18,063;S&P 500:2,141; Nasdaq Comp.:5,236
RESISTANCE “today”: DJIA:18,263; S&P 500:2,168; NASDAQ COMP.:5,301
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NEW PROJECTION:
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of September 16, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,011 a more extreme risk is 17,908 Near-term upside potential is 18,435.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ELECTION YEAR PATTERN BEARISH AFTER MARCH
(So far this is not holding up)
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q3, and 2016 earnings questionable with strong U.S. dollar. Forecasts for 2017 still for a gain in S&P 500 earnings of 13.4%. It has been there for months in spite of deteriorating earnings this year. Any downward revision could impact the market significantly.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Bloomberg.com (Excellent pre-market read)
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Pattern Improved – Uncertainty Lingers

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:18,339
S&P 500: 2,171
Nasdaq Comp.:5,318
Russell 2000: 1,255
Thursday, September 29, 2016 8:28 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
WHAT COULD HURT THE MARKET
-The uncertainty created by a dead heat in the race for the presidency.
-Q3 earnings reports in October, which are expected to mark the sixth straight quarterly decline for the S&P 500.
-a downward revision of 2017’s S&P 500 earnings, currently expected to increase 13.1%. Oil industry earnings have been crushed over the last two years, punishing the S&P 500 earnings as a group. But, based on $55 WTI oil price projections, the oil industry stands to give back to the overall earnings for the 500, generating a 13.1% gain in 2017. We’ll see.
-if the Street suddenly realizes Fed doesn’t have an exit strategy, never did.
-a recession in Europe. Numbers starting to stink. Markit flash Eurozone PMI at 20-mo. Low Sept; Germany PMI service sector slowest 16 mo..
Reportedly, three-quarters of UK CEOs surveyed by KPMG are considering relocating HQs due to Brexit. The British pound has been getting pounded.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
THE FED THIS WEEK
The Fed will be out in force this week. No fewer than ten Fed officials will speak at different times from different parts of the world.
Neel Kashkari and Robert Kaplan spoke yesterday. Wednesday brought Kashkari again, James Bullard, Charles Evans, Loretta Mester, Esther George; Today: Patrick Harker (5:00 a.m.), Dennis Lockhart (8:50 a.m.), Jerome Powell (10:00 a.m.), Janet Yellen (5:10 p.m.).
I am unsure what the full court press is all about, except it is a big week for reports on the economy, and of course, the aftermath of the debate. They may be laying the groundwork for a November rate increase.
TODAY
Over the last ten days, the market has traced out a very bullish pattern with a double bottom for the DJIA and S&P 500, and a continuing uptrend for the Nasdaq Comp..
The market plunged ahead of the debates as uncertainty mounted. Until Tuesday, the risk of another leg down was real. But the post-debate rally turned a negative picture positive. As long as DJIA 18,050 and 2,160 on the S&P 500 aren’t broken the pattern is positive with the potential for more upside.
Is the uncertainty about the outcome of the November election lifting ?
Is the Street more comfortable with Clinton than an unknown like Trump ?
If it is, don’t get too sanguine, the perceived outcome of this election will change direction several times before November 6.
Whether we are now comfortably bouncing around in a safe range-bound trading pattern, or poised for a breakout up or down, is still a jump ball. (see What could hurt the market – above).
Expect a soft open. Watch for buyers. If they jump in quickly, the bears are on the ropes.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:18,249;S&P 500:2,161; Nasdaq Comp.:5,301
RESISTANCE “today”: DJIA:18,427; S&P 500:2,183; NASDAQ COMP.:5,336
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NEW PROJECTION:
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of September 16, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,011 a more extreme risk is 17,908 Near-term upside potential is 18,435.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ELECTION YEAR PATTERN BEARISH AFTER MARCH
(So far this is not holding up)
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q3, and 2016 earnings questionable with strong U.S. dollar. Forecasts for 2017 still for a gain in S&P 500 earnings of 13.4%. It has been there for months in spite of deteriorating earnings this year. Any downward revision could impact the market significantly.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Bloomberg.com (Excellent pre-market read)
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

FED Out in Force – Uncertainties Persist

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:18,228
S&P 500: 2,159
Nasdaq Comp.:5,305
Russell 2000: 1,246
Wednesday, September 28, 2016 8:48 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
WORD-OF-THE-DAY LOOKUP ASSIGNMENT: “Confirmation bias.”
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
WHAT COULD HURT THE MARKET
-The uncertainty created by a dead heat in the race for the presidency
-Q3 earnings reports in October, which are expected to mark the sixth straight quarterly decline for the S&P 500.
-a downward revision of 2017’s S&P 500 earnings, currently expected to increase 13.4%.
-if the Street suddenly realizes Fed doesn’t have an exit strategy, never did.
-a recession in Europe. Numbers starting to stink. Markit flash Eurozone PMI at 20-mo. Low Sept; Germany PMI service sector slowest 16 mo..
Reportedly, three-quarters of UK CEOs surveyed by KPMG are considering relocating HQs due to Brexit. The British pound has been getting pounded.
-another government shutdown based on funding flood relief for Louisiana addressing the Zika crisis and Flint Michigan’s drinking water debacle
This should be resolved with a compromise.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
THE FED THIS WEEK
The Fed will be out in force this week. No fewer than ten Fed officials will speak at different times from different parts of the world.
Neel Kashkari and Robert Kaplan spoke yesterday. Wednesday brings Kashkari again, James Bullard (10:45 a.m.), Charles Evans (1:30 p.m.), Loretta Mester (4:35 p.m.), Esther George (7:15 p.m.); Thursday: Patrick Harker (5:00 a.m.), Dennis Lockhart (8:50 a.m.), Jerome Powell (10:00 a.m.), Janet Yellen (5:10 p.m.).
I am unsure what the full court press is all about, except it is a big week for reports on the economy, and of course, the aftermath of the debate. They may be laying the groundwork for a November rate increase.
TODAY
The blue chip DJIA and S&P 500 market averages have been trading between a narrow range (range bound) since early July. Uncertainty over who will become president in November has put the trading range in jeopardy.
Who wins does make a difference, since the positions of the candidates differs widely.
The FED is out in force this week, possibly testing the Street’s tolerance for a November 2 rate bump.
Today has all the ingredients of being a ho-hummer, which is a good reason to stay focused.
The market should continue yesterday’s rally with a healthy gain. Failure to hold its gain today would be a bad sign.
We have the Fed out there with its cruise control mission, and we have a host of economic indicators tomorrow and Friday to chew on.
Bottom line: DJIA must hold above 17,990, the S&P 500 above 2,119.
…………………………………………………………………………..
Today’s economic reports: S&P Case Shiller Home Prices (9:00), PMI Services (9:45), Consumer Confidence (10:00), Richmond Fed Mfg. (10:00), State Street Investor Confidence (10:00). Check mam.econoday.com for more.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:18,161;S&P 500:2,151; Nasdaq Comp.:5,286
RESISTANCE “today”: DJIA:18,316; S&P 500:2,168; NASDAQ COMP.:5,323
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NEW PROJECTION:
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of September 16, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,011 a more extreme risk is 17,908 Near-term upside potential is 18,435.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ELECTION YEAR PATTERN BEARISH AFTER MARCH
(So far this is not holding up)
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q3, and 2016 earnings questionable with strong U.S. dollar. Forecasts for 2017 still for a gain in S&P 500 earnings of 13.4%. It has been there for months in spite of deteriorating earnings this year. Any downward revision could impact the market significantly.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Bloomberg.com (Excellent pre-market read)
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Uncertainty Will Continue to Rule

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:18,094
S&P 500: 2,146
Nasdaq Comp.:5,257
Russell 2000: 1,240
Tuesday, September 27, 2016 9:07 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
WORD-OF-THE-DAY LOOKUP ASSIGNMENT: “Confirmation bias.”
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
WHAT COULD HURT THE MARKET
-The uncertainty created by a dead heat in the race for the presidency
-Q3 earnings reports in October, which are expected to mark the sixth straight quarterly decline for the S&P 500.
-a downward revision of 2017’s S&P 500 earnings, currently expected to increase 13.4%.
-if the Street suddenly realizes Fed doesn’t have an exit strategy, never did.
-a recession in Europe. Numbers starting to stink. Markit flash Eurozone PMI at 20-mo. Low Sept; Germany PMI service sector slowest 16 mo..
Reportedly, three-quarters of UK CEOs surveyed by KPMG are considering relocating HQs due to Brexit. The British pound has been getting pounded.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
THE FED THIS WEEK
The Fed will be out in force this week. No fewer than ten Fed officials will speak at different times from different parts of the world.
Neel Kashkari and Robert Kaplan spoke yesterday. Wednesday brings Kashkari again, James Bullard (10:45 a.m.), Charles Evans (1:30 p.m.), Loretta Mester (4:35 p.m.), Esther George (7:15 p.m.); Thursday: Patrick Harker (5:00 a.m.), Dennis Lockhart (8:50 a.m.), Jerome Powell (10:00 a.m.), Janet Yellen (5:10 p.m.).
I am unsure what the full court press is all about, except it is a big week for reports on the economy, and of course, the aftermath of the debate. They may be laying the groundwork for a November rate increase.
TODAY
There is little reaction in the futures market today in response to the debates last night. The market did a lot of discounting of uncertainty over the last three days.
We will really have to see how this plays out. It will also be important to see how the debates influence the polls. If the race remains tight, uncertainty will dominate the market. If not, the market will adjust up or down as a reflection of expectations of one administration of the other.
After last night’s debate, it still looks like Clinton has an edge, we will see if the Street has a problem with that.
The Fed will be out there in force this week seeking to hang on to its control of general trends in stock/bond prices.
They will be monitoring a host of reports on the economy this week, as they ponder an unlikely bump in rates at its Nov. 2 meeting.
Today’s economic reports: S&P Case Shiller Home Prices (9:00), PMI Services (9:45), Consumer Confidence (10:00), Richmond Fed Mfg. (10:00), State Street Investor Confidence (10:00). Check mam.econoday.com for more.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:18,016;S&P 500:2,140; Nasdaq Comp.:5,241
If these levels fail to hold, look for DJIA: 17,801; S&P 500: 2,137; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,227.
RESISTANCE “today”: DJIA:18,161; S&P 500:2,156; NASDAQ COMP.:5,278
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NEW PROJECTION:
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of September 16, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,011 a more extreme risk is 17,908 Near-term upside potential is 18,435.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ELECTION YEAR PATTERN BEARISH AFTER MARCH
(So far this is not holding up)
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q3, and 2016 earnings questionable with strong U.S. dollar. Forecasts for 2017 still for a gain in S&P 500 earnings of 13.4%. It has been there for months in spite of deteriorating earnings this year. Any downward revision could impact the market significantly.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Bloomberg.com (Excellent pre-market read)
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

The Last Hurrah ? Or a Springboard ?

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:18,261
S&P 500:2,164
Nasdaq Comp.:5,305
Russell 2000: 1,254
Monday, September 26, 2016 9:07 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
WORD-OF-THE-DAY LOOKUP ASSIGNMENT: “Confirmation bias.”
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
WHAT COULD HURT THE MARKET
-The uncertainty created by a dead heat in the race for the presidency
-Q3 earnings reports in October, which are expected to mark the sixth straight quarterly decline for the S&P 500.
-a downward revision of 2017’s S&P 500 earnings, currently expected to increase 13.4%.
-if the Street suddenly realizes Fed doesn’t have an exit strategy, never did.
-a recession in Europe. Numbers starting to stink. Markit flash Eurozone PMI at 20-mo. Low Sept; Germany PMI service sector slowest 16 mo..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
TODAY
Jitters about the presidential debates tonight is contributing to weakness at the open.
Thursday’s post, “Use Rally to Take Some Profits,” was timely, as the major market averages spiked up prior to a sell off Friday. The Nasdaq even posted its second straight new all-time high before giving ground.
On the surface, Thursday looked like a bet-the-ranch day. The Fed opted out of a rate increase and there may not be one until December, though I see some speculation about November 2, six days before the election (unlikely).
For the more active investor, it helps to step back and read your emotions. Did Thursday morning look like a sure bet for buying ? Can it be that easy ? If it seems so, re-think it.
Nothing “sure” about a decision today with the debates tonight. Much to my surprise, uncertainty about the election has had little impact on the market to-date, which just reflects a single-focus market – 98% Fed policy. With Fed credibility hitting new lows, that may change, and it may not be pretty.
As I have warned, on numerous occasions, corrections in our markets are becoming lightning fast, striking without warning, and without giving investors a chance to nail down profits and raise cash.
Much of this behavior is attributed to the Street’s algos, which respond to similar triggers, unlike days in the past when a money manager’s gut told him/her to ease toward the exit.
We saw this in August 2015 and Jan/Feb this year with breathtaking free-falls.
Watch your back. This has been a phony, over-priced market for many months, even years. It can become more over-priced, but is it worth rolling the dice ? A cash reserve of 25% is prudent. Depending on the tolerance for risk – 40%.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:18,147;S&P 500:2,147; Nasdaq Comp.:5,259
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NEW PROJECTION:
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of September 16, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,011 a more extreme risk is 17,908 Near-term upside potential is 18,435.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ELECTION YEAR PATTERN BEARISH AFTER MARCH
(So far this is not holding up)
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q3, and 2016 earnings questionable with strong U.S. dollar. Forecasts for 2017 still for a gain in S&P 500 earnings of 13.4%. It has been there for months in spite of deteriorating earnings this year. Any downward revision could impact the market significantly.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Bloomberg.com (Excellent pre-market read)
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Use Rally to Take Some Profits

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:18,293
S&P 500:2,163
Nasdaq Comp.:5,295
Russell 2000: 1,245
Thursday, September 22, 2016 6:36 a.m.
NOTE: There will be no post on Friday, this post released too early to review any unexpected news just before the open
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
When will Wall Street’s computers recognize the November elections are important and the outcome uncertain ?
When will Wall Street’s computers recognize the Fed’s policy of ease is limited, that other factors must be considered in arriving market valuation ?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
WHAT COULD HURT THE MARKET
-The uncertainty created by a dead heat in the race for the presidency
-Q3 earnings reports in October, which are expected to mark the sixth straight quarterly decline for the S&P 500.
-a downward revision of 2017’s S&P 500 earnings, currently expected to increase 13.4%.
-if the Street suddenly realizes Fed doesn’t have an exit strategy, never did.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Week’s Economic Calendar
Today: Jobless Claims and Chicago Fed Activity (8:30); FHFA House Prices (9:00 a.m.); Existing Home Sales, Leading Indicators (10:00 a.m.),
Friday: PMI Mfg. (9:45 a.m.), Atlanta Fed Business (10:00).
Also Friday: Regional Fed Presidents Panel (12:00 p.m.).
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
TODAY
As expected, the Fed didn’t raise rates. At this time, there is no meeting planned for October, which takes us to November 2, six days before the election.
I cannot fathom a rate increase several days before the elections, which takes us to December. It is possible, the Street will now turn to reality and abandon this ridiculous 100% addiction to Fed policy. There are other time-tested measures of value.
This election will be close, including Senate and House seats. The result could have enormous ramifications – huge.
This market is historically overpriced and especially in light of the fact we don’t know what will happen in November, or the possibility that
projections for earnings in 2017 will be downgraded,
At some point, maybe not for months, the Street will come to the conclusion the Fed has created an asset bubble driven by its policy overstay, where investors incur increased risk in search of a return.
Yesterday, I headlined “Big technical Day – Bull/Bear Showdown,” and the bulls ran the table.
Phew ! No sweat, no worry about Fed policy until December. Yeah, Right !
Technically, we had a positive breakout yesterday, which took the Nasdaq Comp. to new highs, and positioned the DJIA and S&P 500 to follow suit.
It looks like this surge is a good opportunity to nail down good profits, raise some cash, just in case the unexpected happens, even though the Street thinks Christmas has come early.
. Wednesday, the Fed indicated among other things that, “market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low.” I feel better already !
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:18,226; S&P 500:2,155; Nasdaq Comp.:5,271
RESISTANCE “today”: DJIA:18,401;S&P 500:2,174; Nasdaq Comp.:5,316
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NEW PROJECTION:
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of September 16, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,011 a more extreme risk is 17,908 Near-term upside potential is 18,435.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ELECTION YEAR PATTERN BEARISH AFTER MARCH
(So far this is not holding up)
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q3, and 2016 earnings questionable with strong U.S. dollar. Forecasts for 2017 still for a gain in S&P 500 earnings of 13.4%. It has been there for months in spite of deteriorating earnings this year. Any downward revision could impact the market significantly.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Bloomberg.com (Excellent pre-market read)
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Big “Technical” Day – Bull/Bear Showdown

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:18,129
S&P 500:2,139
Nasdaq Comp.:5,241
Russell 2000: 1,228
Wednesday, September 21, 2016 8:40 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
When will Wall Street’s computers recognize the November elections are important and the outcome uncertain ?
When will Wall Street’s computers recognize the Fed’s policy of ease is limited, that other factors must be considered in arriving market valuation ?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
WHAT COULD HURT THE MARKET
-The uncertainty created by a dead heat in the race for the presidency
-Q3 earnings reports in October, which are expected to mark the sixth straight quarterly decline for the S&P 500.
-a downward revision of 2017’s S&P 500 earnings, currently expected to increase 13.4%.
-further decline in oil prices, which will impede that industry’s recovery.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Week’s Economic Calendar
Today: Jobless Claims and Chicago Fed Activity (8:30); FHFA House Prices (9:00 a.m.); Existing Home Sales, Leading Indicators (10:00 a.m.),
FOMC meeting ends – Press conference !!!
Friday: PMI Mfg. (9:45 a.m.), Atlanta Fed Business (10:00).
Also Friday: Regional Fed Presidents Panel (12:00 p.m.).
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
TODAY
FOMC statement at 2:00 p.m. today and a press conference at 2:30.
The market action Monday wasn’t pretty, nor was yesterday’s. Two rally failures in a row.
This is normal, since the Street is awaiting a Fed decision today, but only a few expect the Fed will bump rates, the first time since last December.
The Bank of Japan passed on lower rates (near zero now) last night, and there’s speculation that its action may be setting a tone for the ECB and Bank of England. Lower rates discourage financial institutions from lending (borrow short/lend long).
Crude oil is up ahead of next week’s OPEC meeting and hopes of cut backs in production.
U.S. stock markets have been churning ahead of today’s FOMC meeting. I don’t expect a rate increase, but the tone of the Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s press conference at 2:30.
A major rally failure today where the DJIA is up 110 points, but loses all of the gain by day’s end would be very bearish.
At some point, the uncertainty of the November election has to come into play.
At some point, the Street will crunch numbers for S&P 500 earnings in 2017. Both could be negatives.
A September/October correction would set the stage for a nifty buying opportunity in Q4.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:18,077; S&P 500:2,129; Nasdaq Comp.:5,214
RESISTANCE “today”: DJIA:18,265;S&P 500:2,153; Nasdaq Comp.:5,281
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NEW PROJECTION:
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of September 16, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,011 a more extreme risk is 17,908 Near-term upside potential is 18,435.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ELECTION YEAR PATTERN BEARISH AFTER MARCH
(So far this is not holding up)
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q3, and 2016 earnings questionable with strong U.S. dollar. Forecasts for 2017 still for a gain in S&P 500 earnings of 13.4%. It has been there for months in spite of deteriorating earnings this year. Any downward revision could impact the market significantly.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Bloomberg.com (Excellent pre-market read)
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Waiting on the Fed

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:18,120
S&#03Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:18,120
S&P 500:2,139
Nasdaq Comp.:5,235
Russell 2000: 1,232
Tuesday, September 20, 2016 9:07 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
When will Wall Street’s computers recognize the November elections are important and the outcome uncertain ?
When will Wall Street’s computers recognize the Fed’s policy of ease is limited, that other factors must be considered in arriving market valuation ?
NOTE:
Last week I made special note that there was NO PRESS CONFERENCE scheduled after the FOMC meeting this wednesday I also said any sudden scheduling of a press conference would suggest news on interest rates.
That is incorrect. There WILL BE a press conference following Wednesday’s meeting. The FOMC calendar in my file indicated there would not be a press conference after the meeting. I am not sure when a change took place, if it was a typo since corrected, if a meeting was recently scheduled, or if it suggests news on interest rates is coming Wednesday.
Assume there will be a press conference at 2:30 Wednesday, but it’s anyone’s guess on a bump in rates.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
WHAT COULD HURT THE MARKET
-The uncertainty created by a dead heat in the race for the presidency
-Q3 earnings reports in October, which are expected to mark the sixth straight quarterly decline for the S&P 500.
-a downward revision of 2017’s S&P 500 earnings, currently expected to increase 13.4%.
-further decline in oil prices, which will impede that industry’s recovery.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Week’s Economic Calendar
Thursday: Jobless Claims and Chicago Fed Activity (8:30); FHFA House Prices (9:00 a.m.); Existing Home Sales, Leading Indicators (10:00 a.m.),
Friday: PMI Mfg. (9:45 a.m.), Atlanta Fed Business (10:00).
Also Friday: Regional Fed Presidents Panel (12:00 p.m.).
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
TODAY
The market action yesterday wasn’t pretty, but in light of the fact the Street is awaiting Wednesday’s 2:30 Fed news conference regarding interest rates..
I am attributing the market’s indifference to uncertainties to the fact that so much of the Street’s decision process is computerized and everyone is pretty much all on the same page.
As I have noted many times, if something in their programming triggers outright buying or selling, the impact will be dramatic, because just about every institution will be doing the same thing.
Obviously, the computers were programmed to sell, or simply not buy, in August 2015, as well as in January/February this year, and the market went south in a hurry. When the Brits voted to leave the EU in June, the computers, biased to buy on pullbacks, did just that even in face of a lot of skepticism about the impact on the EC.
Expect volatility to continue as a Fed decision on interest rates nears. A decision to raise rates is the least expected.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:18,076; S&P 500:2,133; Nasdaq Comp.:5,229
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:18,226;S&P 500:2,149; Nasdaq Comp.:5,261
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NEW PROJECTION:
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of September 16, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,011 a more extreme risk is 17,908 Near-term upside potential is 18,435.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ELECTION YEAR PATTERN BEARISH AFTER MARCH
(So far this is not holding up)
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q3, and 2016 earnings questionable with strong U.S. dollar.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Bloomberg.com (Excellent pre-market read)
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

8;P 500:2,139
Nasdaq Comp.:5,235
Russell 2000: 1,232
Tuesday, September 20, 2016 9:07 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
When will Wall Street’s computers recognize the November elections are important and the outcome uncertain ?
When will Wall Street’s computers recognize the Fed’s policy of ease is limited, that other factors must be considered in arriving market valuation ?
NOTE:
Last week I made special note that there was NO PRESS CONFERENCE scheduled after the FOMC meeting this wednesday I also said any sudden scheduling of a press conference would suggest news on interest rates.
That is incorrect. There WILL BE a press conference following Wednesday’s meeting. The FOMC calendar in my file indicated there would not be a press conference after the meeting. I am not sure when a change took place, if it was a typo since corrected, if a meeting was recently scheduled, or if it suggests news on interest rates is coming Wednesday.
Assume there will be a press conference at 2:30 Wednesday, but it’s anyone’s guess on a bump in rates.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
WHAT COULD HURT THE MARKET
-The uncertainty created by a dead heat in the race for the presidency
-Q3 earnings reports in October, which are expected to mark the sixth straight quarterly decline for the S&P 500.
-a downward revision of 2017’s S&P 500 earnings, currently expected to increase 13.4%.
-further decline in oil prices, which will impede that industry’s recovery.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Week’s Economic Calendar
Thursday: Jobless Claims and Chicago Fed Activity (8:30); FHFA House Prices (9:00 a.m.); Existing Home Sales, Leading Indicators (10:00 a.m.),
Friday: PMI Mfg. (9:45 a.m.), Atlanta Fed Business (10:00).
Also Friday: Regional Fed Presidents Panel (12:00 p.m.).
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
TODAY
The market action yesterday wasn’t pretty, but in light of the fact the Street is awaiting Wednesday’s 2:30 Fed news conference regarding interest rates..
I am attributing the market’s indifference to uncertainties to the fact that so much of the Street’s decision process is computerized and everyone is pretty much all on the same page.
As I have noted many times, if something in their programming triggers outright buying or selling, the impact will be dramatic, because just about every institution will be doing the same thing.
Obviously, the computers were programmed to sell, or simply not buy, in August 2015, as well as in January/February this year, and the market went south in a hurry. When the Brits voted to leave the EU in June, the computers, biased to buy on pullbacks, did just that even in face of a lot of skepticism about the impact on the EC.
Expect volatility to continue as a Fed decision on interest rates nears. A decision to raise rates is the least expected.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:18,076; S&P 500:2,133; Nasdaq Comp.:5,229
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:18,226;S&P 500:2,149; Nasdaq Comp.:5,261
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NEW PROJECTION:
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of September 16, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,011 a more extreme risk is 17,908 Near-term upside potential is 18,435.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ELECTION YEAR PATTERN BEARISH AFTER MARCH
(So far this is not holding up)
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q3, and 2016 earnings questionable with strong U.S. dollar.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Bloomberg.com (Excellent pre-market read)
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Uncertainty Rises – Market Indifferent

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:18,123
S&P 500:2,139
Nasdaq Comp.:5,244
Russell 2000: 1,224
Monday, September 19, 2016 9:07 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NOTE:
Last week I made special note that there was NO PRESS CONFERENCE scheduled after the FOMC meeting this wednesday I also said any sudden scheduling of a press conference would suggest news on interest rates.
That is incorrect. There WILL BE a press conference following Wednesday’s meeting. The FOMC calendar in my file indicated there would not be a press conference after the meeting. I am not sure when a change took place, if it was a typo since corrected, if a meeting was recently scheduled, or if it suggests news on interest rates is coming Wednesday.
Assume there will be a press conference at 2:30 Wednesday, but it’s anyone’s guess on a bump in rates.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
WHAT COULD HURT THE MARKET
-The uncertainty created by a dead heat in the race for the presidency
-Q3 earnings reports in October, which are expected to mark the sixth straight quarterly decline for the S&P 500.
-a downward revision of 2017’s S&P 500 earnings, currently expected to increase 13.4%.
-further decline in oil prices, which will impede that industry’s recovery.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
TODAY
Looks like a strong open. Friday was Quadruple Witching Friday when all four futures/options expire. Volume and activity tend to be higher as institutions scramble to unwind positions. That activity can spill over to Monday, so that may be what we see this morning.
The DJIA and S&P 500 have held up well above 18,000 and 2,120 respectively for five consecutive days. The Nasdaq Comp. has posted higher lows five days running.
Nothing has changed for the better on the news front – uncertainties continue to mount but have had little effect on the stock market.
There is a chance of a big rally today, probably in anticipation of inaction on rates by the Fed.
This market marches to a drumbeat, but no one is sure who the drummer is. Most pros would say it is the Fed. I am beginning to think buy/sell decisions are so overwhelmingly computerized, the market is no longer sensitive to news of any kind, and that is dangerous.
It looks like the algos are programmed to buy on any weakness. Any changes or trespasses on any trigger mechanism will probably be employed by most institutions simultaneously, creating a buying or selling panic.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:18,076; S&P 500:2,133; Nasdaq Comp.:5,229
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:18,226;S&P 500:2,149; Nasdaq Comp.:5,261
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NEW PROJECTION:
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of September 16, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,011 a more extreme risk is 17,908 Near-term upside potential is 18,435.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ELECTION YEAR PATTERN BEARISH AFTER MARCH
(So far this is not holding up)
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q3, and 2016 earnings questionable with strong U.S. dollar.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Bloomberg.com (Excellent pre-market read)
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:18,123
S&P 500:2,139
Nasdaq Comp.:5,244
Russell 2000: 1,224
Monday, September 19, 2016 9:07 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NOTE:
Last week I made special note that there was NO PRESS CONFERENCE scheduled after the FOMC meeting this wednesday I also said any sudden scheduling of a press conference would suggest news on interest rates.
That is incorrect. There WILL BE a press conference following Wednesday’s meeting. The FOMC calendar in my file indicated there would not be a press conference after the meeting. I am not sure when a change took place, if it was a typo since corrected, if a meeting was recently scheduled, or if it suggests news on interest rates is coming Wednesday.
Assume there will be a press conference at 2:30 Wednesday, but it’s anyone’s guess on a bump in rates.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
WHAT COULD HURT THE MARKET
-The uncertainty created by a dead heat in the race for the presidency
-Q3 earnings reports in October, which are expected to mark the sixth straight quarterly decline for the S&P 500.
-a downward revision of 2017’s S&P 500 earnings, currently expected to increase 13.4%.
-further decline in oil prices, which will impede that industry’s recovery.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
TODAY
Looks like a strong open. Friday was Quadruple Witching Friday when all four futures/options expire. Volume and activity tend to be higher as institutions scramble to unwind positions. That activity can spill over to Monday, so that may be what we see this morning.
The DJIA and S&P 500 have held up well above 18,000 and 2,120 respectively for five consecutive days. The Nasdaq Comp. has posted higher lows five days running.
Nothing has changed for the better on the news front – uncertainties continue to mount but have had little effect on the stock market.
There is a chance of a big rally today, probably in anticipation of inaction on rates by the Fed.
This market marches to a drumbeat, but no one is sure who the drummer is. Most pros would say it is the Fed. I am beginning to think buy/sell decisions are so overwhelmingly computerized, the market is no longer sensitive to news of any kind, and that is dangerous.
It looks like the algos are programmed to buy on any weakness. Any changes or trespasses on any trigger mechanism will probably be employed by most institutions simultaneously, creating a buying or selling panic.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:18,076; S&P 500:2,133; Nasdaq Comp.:5,229
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:18,226;S&P 500:2,149; Nasdaq Comp.:5,261
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NEW PROJECTION:
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of September 16, 2016, a reasonable risk is 18,011 a more extreme risk is 17,908 Near-term upside potential is 18,435.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ELECTION YEAR PATTERN BEARISH AFTER MARCH
(So far this is not holding up)
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q3, and 2016 earnings questionable with strong U.S. dollar.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Bloomberg.com (Excellent pre-market read)
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Bulls Still “Bring It”

Bulls Still “Bringing It”
Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 18,212
S&P 500:2,147
Nasdaq Comp.:5,249
Russell 2000: 1,227
Friday, September 16, 2016 9:11 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
TODAY
This is Quadruple Witching Friday, the day when all four contracts expire for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and stock futures. The event can cause a scramble to even up positions, and that may have already started this week what with all the increased volatility.
This has been a week that tested the bull’s resolve. It also highlighted
how important Fed policy is to the Street. Concern last week that central banks abroad were beginning loss confidence in the effectiveness of their policy of ease as a catalyst for growth sent bond and stock prices tumbling.
But like so many times in the past, buyers rushed in to head off a major correction, one that could easily have been justified by uncertainty over the November elections, irregular economic growth, and the likelihood of a sixth straight decline in S&P 500 earnings.
There was solid support for the DJIA at around 18,000 area and 2,120 for the S&P 500. The Nasdaq Comp. spiked down Monday and snapped back sharply, obviously marching to a different drumbeat.
It seams the Bulls are saying, “Give us a really, really good reason to sell, otherwise take a hike, in the meantime we will buy any dip that comes our way.” Hmmmm.
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SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:18,153; S&P 500:2,141; Nasdaq Comp.:5,224
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:18,276;S&P 500:2,153; Nasdaq Comp.:5,259.:
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Just a reminder there is NO PRESS CONFERENCE scheduled following Next week’s meeting. IF one is suddenly scheduled, expect a rate increase. I doubt they would bump rates without a press conference.
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WHAT COULD HURT THE MARKET
There is a chance the presidential polls will show a dead heat this month between Clinton and Trump with the possibility that the Libertarian ticket (Johnson/Weld) could act as a the swing factor in several key states, Ohio for one.
If this happens it would inject major uncertainty into the market with the potential of a plunge in prices, and there would be little the Fed can do to stop it.
Not yet considered by the Street is how good is the estimate for a 13% increase in S&P 500 earnings in 2017 ?
Q2 earnings were down 3.2%, the fifth straight quarterly decline, much of it due to the crunch in energy industry earnings. Q3 is projected to mark the sixth straight decline in quarterly earnings with a drop of 2.1%, but Q5 is projected to increase 5.5%.
Oil prices have been falling, which stands to impact earnings of oil and related stocks. The U.S. dollar is strong and can get stronger if the Fed raises interest rates, which will impact multinational stock earnings. The reverse is true if oil prices rebound as a result of OPEC’s meeting, and the dollar weakens if the Fed opts out of a rate increase – stay tuned.
August manufacturing took another hit with the ISM Index slipping to 49.4 from 52 (50 is the growth/no growth threshold).
Labor costs are up while worker productivity is in its longest slide since the 1970s, crunching margins.
Should the contest for the presidency become a toss up, uncertainty on the Street will mount and the stock market will have to find a comfort level at lower prices.
Sharp declines in the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, U.S. Services PMI, and Labor Market Conditions Index reports last week combine to give a determined Fed something to think about next week when it decides on a hike in rates.
TODAY
This is Quadruple Witching Friday, the day when all four contracts expire for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and stock futures. The event can cause a scramble to even up positions, and that may have already started this week what with all the increased volatility.

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SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:18,153; S&P 500:2,141; Nasdaq Comp.:5,224
RESISTANCE “today”:DJIA:18,276;S&P 500:2,153; Nasdaq Comp.:5,259.:
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NEW PROJECTION:
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of September 2, 2016, a reasonable risk is 17,582 a more extreme risk is 17,353 Near-term upside potential is 18,753.
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ELECTION YEAR PATTERN BEARISH AFTER MARCH
(So far this is not holding up)
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
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 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q3, and 2016 earnings questionable with strong U.S. dollar.
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Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Bloomberg.com (Excellent pre-market read)
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George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.