Trader’s Sell Into Strength

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 17,694
S&P 500: 2,070
Nasdaq Comp.: 4,779
Russell 2000: 1,131
Thursday, June 30, 2016 8:57 a.m.
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EXPECT RUMORS:
– that Brexit will be reversed by parliament, or ignored by a new prime minister. The referendum is not legally binding, and reportedly, a lot of Brits regret voting to leave, including Boris Johnson, the biggest proponent of exit.
-that the EU will move to address Britain’s EU gripes like the immigration issue.
-fallout won’t be as bad as feared, since Britain will still be part of the European economy, doing business will be more complicated.
-the EU has survived crises before like the fiscal crisis in 2009 – 2010 when Italy. Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Ireland were on the ropes and needed help.
-a Fed-fix: talk is already circulating that the Fed won’t raise interest rates until 2018.
-Fed jawboning: a army of Fed officials (with credentials) will be dispatched to allay fears of U.S. fallout, the return to QE if necessary – whatever it takes to run the market back up in time for the next crisis.
Brexit upstaged all other issues that comprise market valuation, and will do so for some time. Q3 and Q4 earnings will have to be addressed, as well as the direction of the U.S. economy.
And what about the November election – remember ? That could dwarf Brexit as November closes in.
And what about a rumor that other nations will consider an “exit.” It would only take an unfounded rumor to trash stocks again.
TODAY
The ongoing pattern has been when markets take a nasty hit, they recover quickly regardless of the reason for the break in the first place.
The markets have now recouped two thirds of the Brexit loss, a two-day 5.6% crunch, and are now ready for a test of the June 27 low of DJIA 17,063 (S&P 500: 1,991) ?
Whether the Tuesday/Wednesday snapback was bargain hunting, institutional investors averaging out positions accumulated at higher levels, or short covering will be decided today and tomorrow.
Based on all factors, technical, fundamental, international, and economic, this market is over valued. Both the bull market and economic recovery are historically up in years. A stronger U.S. dollar stands to adversely impact Q3 and Q4 S&P 500 earnings, which the Street was counting on to justify these prices.
The Street will be following St. Louis Fed’s James Bullard at 2 o’clock today.
Reportedly, Bullard has a “nearly unequaled ability to move markets,” so his comments can’t be taken lightly.
The brexiting of global markets has created the potential for serious upheaval, so I expect Bullard to emphasize all the things the Fed can do to prop the market up, namely to forgo any interest rate increases until 2018.
That would press the market higher, setting it up for the next crunch.
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SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:17,548; S&P 500:2,051; Nasdaq Comp.:4,741.
RESISTANCE “today” DJIA:17,767; S&P 500:2,077; Nasdaq Comp.:4,793 .
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NEW PROJECTION:
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of June 24, 2016, a reasonable risk is 17,285 a more extreme risk is 16,778. Near-term upside potential is 17,698.
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ELECTION YEAR PATTERN BEARISH AFTER MARCH
(I will repeat this regularly to keep readers aware of the potential for an April correction)
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
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 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q2, and 2016 earnings questionable. Fed has market under its spell.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

RUMORS Galore Will Whipsaw Stocks

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 17,409
S&P 500: 2,036
Nasdaq Comp.4,691:
Russell 2000: 1,107
Wednesday, June 29, 2016 9:07 a.m.
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Stocks and commodities rose for the second day as investors sought bargains and the likelihood efforts at damage control would be employed to reduce fallout.
Investors will scramble again today pick up stocks in hopes that the market will rebound to approach all-time highs as it did in Q4 of 2015 and March/April this year after taking a nasty tumble.
EXPECT RUMORS:
– that Brexit will be reversed by parliament, or ignored by a new prime minister. The referendum is not legally binding, and reportedly, a lot of Brits regret voting to leave, including Boris Johnson, the biggest proponent of exit.
-that the EU will move to address Britain’s EU gripes like the immigration issue.
-fallout won’t be as bad as feared, since Britain will still be part of the European economy, doing business will be more complicated.
-the EU has survived crises before like the fiscal crisis in 2009 – 2010 when Italy. Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Ireland were on the ropes and needed help.
-a Fed-fix: talk is already circulating that the Fed won’t raise interest rates until 2018.
-Fed jawboning: a army of Fed officials (with credentials) will be dispatched to allay fears of U.S. fallout, the return to QE if necessary – whatever it takes to run the market back up in time for the next crisis.
Brexit upstaged all other issues that comprise market valuation, and will do so for some time. Q3 and Q4 earnings will have to be addressed, as well as the direction of the U.S. economy.
And what about the November election – remember ? That could dwarf Brexit as November closes in.
And what about a rumor that other nations will consider an “exit.” It would only take an unfounded rumor to trash stocks again.
Sorry for the Mr. negative stuff, but I hate to see investors get hurt, and paying up for stocks in face of the uncertainties and negatives out there that are not yet discounted is a good way to do so.
Stocks will rebound at the open with room to run a bit more, a lot more if the Fed fires some hopeful salvos, or rumors noted below start to fly.
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SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:17,258; S&P 500:2,012; Nasdaq Comp.:4,666.
RESISTANCE “today” DJIA:17,451; S&P 500:2,043 ; Nasdaq Comp.:4,712 .
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NEW PROJECTION:
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of June 24, 2016, a reasonable risk is 17,285 a more extreme risk is 16,778. Near-term upside potential is 17,698.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ELECTION YEAR PATTERN BEARISH AFTER MARCH
(I will repeat this regularly to keep readers aware of the potential for an April correction)
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
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 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q2, and 2016 earnings questionable. Fed has market under its spell.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Technical Rally to Encounter Resistance

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 17,140
S&P 500: 2,000
Nasdaq Comp.:4,594
Russell 2000: 1,089
Tuesday, June 28, 2016 9:09 a.m.
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Look for the Fed and other central banks to attempt to stabilize and jawbone the markets back up. There will be speculation about a British parliament override of Brexit (unlikely), as well as counter offers by the EU to reduce the impact going forward.
Reportedly, the referendum is not legally binding, but to ignore it would create even more division. Former Prime Minister Cameron will be leaving it up to his successor (Boris Johnson front runner) to execute Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to set the wheels of an EU exit in motion.
TODAY
The market stabilized yesterday after another tumble and is following through with a rally today. Actually, I expected a little more than a dead cat bounce yesterday, but a morning stall was followed by a successful test of that low in the afternoon, as institutions and traders decided a two-day, 5.8% plunge was worth some buying.
I now see us entering the classic whipsaw market where the market will jump and fall in concert with positive and negative news.
The Brexit vote was the catalyst to jolt the market back into reality. Prior to this break, there were enough uncertainties and negatives to warrant a lower valuation of equities, so here you are.
The fallout from the Brexit vote is not known, this is new turf and it’s slippery.
The market has yet to adjust for the November elections, and the fact a stronger U.S. dollar may adversely impact Q3 and Q4 earnings, which the Street hoped would justify a higher market valuation.
We have seen sharp recoveries follow the Aug 2015 and January/February 2016 plunges, and it could happen again. I seriously doubt it with what is known now. This is more than a green stick fracture.
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SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:17,213; S&P 500:2,013; Nasdaq Comp.:4,624
These supports are in the event the rally corrects during the day.
RESISTANCE “today” DJIA:17,416; S&P 500: 2,039; Nasdaq Comp.:4,687 .
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NEW PROJECTION:
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of June 24, 2016, a reasonable risk is 17,285 a more extreme risk is 16,778. Near-term upside potential is 17,698.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ELECTION YEAR PATTERN BEARISH AFTER MARCH
(I will repeat this regularly to keep readers aware of the potential for an April correction)
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
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>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q2, and 2016 earnings questionable. Fed has market under its spell.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Technical Bounce Likely – Traders Only

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 17,399
S&P 500: 2,037
Nasdaq Comp.:
Russell 2000:
Monday, June 27, 2016 9:09 a.m.
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I expected the “stay” to win, but warned a “leave” vote would result in a gap down at the open, most likely leading to the slide into October.
I believe this is the beginning of the “plunge” I referred to in my May 25, “Last Rally Before a Plunge” blog.
The ongoing risk now is, will any other country opt to leave the EU ? Just talk of the Netherlands, Italy, Greece etc. would impact prices.
The U.S. dollar was the port in the storm for investors across the globe Friday. The downside of that is a strong dollar will penalize Q2 and Q4 earnings. With the S&P 500 P/E still overpriced, the potential for more downside is great.
Uncertainty is the driving factor here, with heading into the November elections adding to the mess.
The EU is no stranger to crises. It barely survived the sovereign debt crisis in late 2009 and years after when Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, and Cyprus were on the ropes.
In any event, it will take the Brits two years to exit the EU entirely, they can always rejoin if they wish. Rumors will roil stock prices.
Be sure of one thing, the Fed will be out in force to stem the carnage, which is OK in a crisis. Fed Chief Janet Yelles speaks Wednesday at 9:30 a.m. , James Bullard at 2:00 p.m. Thursday, and Loretta Mester Friday at 11:00 a.m..
It did its damage though propping the market at higher levels for months, sucking investors in without regard for obvious risks – shaky economies here and abroad, the Brexit vote, deflationary tendencies, the November election, overvaluation of equities. Most likely the market would have sold at much lower levels before the Brexit vote, based on prevailing negatives.
Propping the market when it’s unreasonable oversold is one thing, doing so when it is over valued is another – shame !
TODAY
The market will seek a comfort level that discounts known and suspected negatives. Odds favor a bounce as institutions buy after Friday’s crunch.
The potential low and resistance to a bounce is noted below in support and resistance levels below.
Fedspeak will attempt to prop the market – downside risk is significant.
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SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:17,186 ; S&P 500:2,009; Nasdaq Comp.:4,649
RESISTANCE “today” DJIA:17,462 ; S&P 500:2,047 ; Nasdaq Comp.:4,731 .
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NEW PROJECTION:
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of June 24, 2016, a reasonable risk is 17,285 a more extreme risk is 16,778. Near-term upside potential is 17,698.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ELECTION YEAR PATTERN BEARISH AFTER MARCH
(I will repeat this regularly to keep readers aware of the potential for an April correction)
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q2, and 2016 earnings questionable. Fed has market under its spell.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

The “Plunge” after the “Last Rally”

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 18,011
S&P 500: 2,223
Nasdaq Comp.4,910:
Russell 2000: 1,1.72c
Friday, June 24, 2016 9:09 a.m.
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I really expected the “stay” to win, but warned a “leave” vote would result in a gap down at the open, most likely leading to a slide into October.
I had my headline already written in the event the Brits opted to stay in the EU – “Defer Purchase – Trader’s Sell” to warn readers to sell into a surge in prices at the open if the stays won.
The disruption to world markets is already significant, the extent going forward is not known at this point. Governments will scramble to implement damage control, as they are faced with months of uncertainty.
I believe this will be the “plunge” I referred to in my May 25, “Last Rally Before a Plunge” blog.
The ongoing risk now is, will any other country opt to leave the EU ?
The EU is no stranger to crises. It barely survived the sovereign debt crisis in late 2009 and years after when Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, and Cyprus were on the ropes.
In any event, it will take the Brits two years to exit the EU entirely, they can always rejoin if they wish.
Markets tend to continue in a state of vulnerability until something triggers a break. This may well be the break. The U.S. markets have been fundamentally and technically overpriced for over a year, propped by a Fed policy that encouraged the Street to opt for risk assets without regard for other considerations – the economy, the uncertainty of the November election, and domestic global economies.
Financial news will blister in coming weeks with reports of repercussions of the Brit vote. The EU will be quick to say the break won’t hurt. The Fed will try to sugarcoat it with suggestions it will go easy on any tightening measures.
These comments will draw investors back in running the market up only to fall back again.
TODAY
The vote surprised the Street which was bullish running stocks up sharply at yesterday’s close. Some traders will use the gap down to buy, smart money will sell if stocks rebound sharply today in an attempt to “close the gap.”
Don’t buy the government hype in coming months. This market needs adjust to a reality that includes the reality that our economy and bull market is seven years old and vulnerable and faced with major uncertainties.
Fed governors will be out in force next week to play down the Brit’s decision to opt out – IGNORE THEM !
I expect sharp rebounds to be followed by sharp selloffs as the Street reacts to optimists and pessimists as they pitch their case.
Serious disruption has taken place here.
The EURO STOXX opened 11% lower the German DAX 10% down. The British pound had its worst day ever, down 7.2%, Oil down 4.1%, the FTSE down 4.2%, but gold was up 4.8%.
Central banks have stepped in to head off carnage.
Circuit breakers have been tripped across the board so the open on the NYSE
May be worse than known before the open.
Rallies are for nimble traders and offer an opportunity for investors to raise some cash in line with their tolerance for risk. If the market were down prior to this announcement I would be less bearish, but it was up and overpriced – vulnerable.
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SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:17,327 ; S&P 500:2,027 ; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,723 .
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NEW PROJECTION:
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of June 17, 2016, a reasonable risk is 17,518 a more extreme risk is 17,388. Near-term upside potential is 17,901.Support here is being tested.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ELECTION YEAR PATTERN BEARISH AFTER MARCH
(I will repeat this regularly to keep readers aware of the potential for an April correction)
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q2, and 2016 earnings questionable. Fed has market under its spell.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Street Buying Ahead of Brexit Vote

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 17,780
S&P 500: 2,085
Nasdaq Comp.4,833:
Russell 2000: 1,148
Thursday, June 23, 2016 8:53 a.m.
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Small wonder jobs performed by humans are disappearing rapidly. There is now a robot that fillets fish.
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The results of the Brexit vote will not be known today, but not until after 2 a.m. Friday, well ahead of the open Friday.
The market will open strong today, obviously the Street is front running an expected “stay” vote.
I don’t like to buy gap opens, simply because odds favor investors are likely to pay up for stocks with the risk that they catch the high for the day, maybe the high for quite a while.
Assuming the Brits opt to stay with the EU, the announcement prior to the open tomorrow will be up as well. If today closes near my resistance levels (see below), then I expect another gap open tomorrow, but a sell off before 10:00 a.m.
That would be a “defer purchase” and a “trader’s sell,” as I think the decision to stay would be fully discounted, leaving us with an economy the Fed has some serious doubts about, not to mention the uncertainty of our own election in November.
If the Brits opt to “leave” the EU, the market will gap down, most likely leading to a slide into October.
YELLEN
While appearing before the House Finance Committee yesterday, Fed Chief Janet Yellen bemoaned the slump in productivity growth, adding she expects robust growth going forward yet cannot rule out continued slow growth in productivity – hmmm.
Economists and the Fed are puzzled by this trend.
How about corporations pumping money into stock repurchases instead of badly needed capital expenditures ?
Yellen was accused yesterday by Rep. Edward R. Royce (R-Calif.) of essentially propping the market up with its policy. Yellen replied, “We do not target the level of stock prices, that is not an appropriate thing to do.”
Nonsense ! I have been accusing the Fed of artificially propping the market up not just with policy, but verbally with Governors out on the speech circuit.
This creates a phony market that hasn’t discounted existing negatives and leads to another flash crash when the Street adjusts to reality. It happened last August and this year in January.
ECONOMY
Big day today for reports on the economy. We get Jobless Claims and the Chicago Nat’l Activity reports at 8:30. PMI Mfg. at 9:45; and New Home Sales and Leading Indicators at 10:00. FYI: Durable Goods come at 8:30 a.m., and Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 tomorrow.
TODAY
More volatility based on speculation of the vote. Polling stations opened at 2:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time. Polls close 5:00 p.m.. Voter turnout numbers sift in after 6:30 p.m.; by midnight 80% of the votes are expected to be counted and by 2:00 a.m. ally votes should be in.
A lot of pundits will be trying to call this one in advance, thus a lot of volatility.
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RESISTANCE: “today” DJIA:17,896; S&P 500:2,097 ; Nasdaq Comp.:4,873.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NEW PROJECTION:
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of June 17, 2016, a reasonable risk is 17,518 a more extreme risk is 17,388. Near-term upside potential is 17,901.Support here is being tested.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ELECTION YEAR PATTERN BEARISH AFTER MARCH
(I will repeat this regularly to keep readers aware of the potential for an April correction)
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q2, and 2016 earnings questionable. Fed has market under its spell.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Everything On Hold For Now

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 17,829
S&P 500: 2,088
Nasdaq Comp.:4,843
Russell 2000: 1,153
EARLY RELEASE TODAY (without benefit of new info released immediately prior to the open)
Wednesday, June 22, 2016 8:45 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
As I thought, yesterday was a wait and see day, in spite of what Fed Chief Yellen said in her appearance before the Senate Banking Committee, which was pretty much what she said after the FOMC meeting – maybe one increase this year. She appears again at 10 o’clock today before the House Financial Services Committee.
While odds makers expect the Brits to stay in the EU in the vote tomorrow, it really looks like it is too close to call.
The U.S. stock market has been discounting a “stay,” up sharply in four days, which suggests the possibility of an upside spike if the stays win.
That is not a spike I would buy.
Yellen’s “new normal” really indicates it won’t be raising rates unless our economy gains traction. That does not assure investors certain Fed governors won’t suggest rates will rise in the near future. A number of Governors have been at odds with Yellon.
We will get a better read after the Brexit vote.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT: “today”: DJIA:17,756; S&P 500:2,077 ; Nasdaq Comp.:4,821 .
RESISTANCE: “today” DJIA:17,919; S&P 500:2,097; Nasdaq Comp.:4,868.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NEW PROJECTION:
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of June 17, 2016, a reasonable risk is 17,518 a more extreme risk is 17,388. Near-term upside potential is 17,901.Support here is being tested.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ELECTION YEAR PATTERN BEARISH AFTER MARCH
(I will repeat this regularly to keep readers aware of the potential for an April correction)
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q2, and 2016 earnings questionable. Fed has market under its spell.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

A Wait and See Day

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 17,804
S&P 500: 2,071
Nasdaq Comp.:4,800
Russell 2000: 1,157
Tuesday, June 21, 2016 9:09 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Yesterday, I warned that “Buying a gap open has risks of paying up for stocks,” which was timely, since the Dow and S&P 500 gave back much of the day’s gain, the Nasdaq Comp. gave back all of it.
News that polls suddenly showed a shift toward a British preference for not exiting the EU on Thursday was the catalyst for the strong open, but second thoughts suggested the outcome was not be so certain.
But the Stoxx Europe 600 is up today as are stock index futures here, suggesting another attempt to run up.
Fed Chief Janet Yellen speaks before the Senate Banking Committee today and House Financial Services Committee tomorrow, both at 10 o’clock.
TODAY
This should be a wait and see day, as rumors swirl about which side of the Brexit vote will prevail.
On the home front, aside from Yellen’s comments, there is little economic news.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT: “today”: DJIA:17,736 ; S&P 500: 2,081; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,813.
RESISTANCE: “today” DJIA:17,877; S&P 500:2,093; Nasdaq Comp.:4,861.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NEW PROJECTION:
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of June 17, 2016, a reasonable risk is 17,518 a more extreme risk is 17,388. Near-term upside potential is 17,901.Support here is being tested.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ELECTION YEAR PATTERN BEARISH AFTER MARCH
(I will repeat this regularly to keep readers aware of the potential for an April correction)
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q2, and 2016 earnings questionable. Fed has market under its spell.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

New Polls Suggest Brits to Stay

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 17,675
S&P 500: 2,071
Nasdaq Comp.:4,800
Russell 2000: 1,144
Monday, June 20, 2016 9:13 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The market will jump sharply at the open today, driven by polls that show the odds now favor the UK will stay in the European Union.
Sentiments reversed late last week following the murder of Pro-EU lawmaker Jo Cox with the stay vote now favored.
While the vote will take place Thursday, markets across the world believe a great uncertainty has been lifted, prompting investors to buy.
Actually, I suspected the market got a subtle “buy” last week when Fed Chief Janet Yellen made special reference to a “new normal” in her press conference following the FOMC minutes, explaining that rates may be depressed by, “factors that are not going to be rapidly disappearing, but will be part of the new normal.”
The Fed felt the need to head off any selling in stocks that might arise from the Brits opting out of the EU Thursday. Their concern is lessened now. It will be interesting to see what she says when she speaks again this week at 10:00 a.m. Tuesday and Wednesday.
Buying on a “gap” open has risks of paying up for stocks. Some of the pre-open buying has to be short covering.
Assuming the Brits stay, other uncertainties will persist – careful !
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
RESISTANCE: “today” DJIA:17,896 ; S&P 500:2,097; Nasdaq Comp.:4,873.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NEW PROJECTION:
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of June 17, 2016, a reasonable risk is 17,518 a more extreme risk is 17,388. Near-term upside potential is 17,901.Support here is being tested.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ELECTION YEAR PATTERN BEARISH AFTER MARCH
(I will repeat this regularly to keep readers aware of the potential for an April correction)
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q2, and 2016 earnings questionable. Fed has market under its spell.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 17,675
S&P 500: 2,071
Nasdaq Comp.:4,800
Russell 2000: 1,144
Monday, June 20, 2016 9:13 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The market will jump sharply at the open today, driven by polls that show the odds now favor the UK will stay in the European Union.
Sentiments reversed late last week following the murder of Pro-EU lawmaker Jo Cox with the stay vote now favored.
While the vote will take place Thursday, markets across the world believe a great uncertainty has been lifted, prompting investors to buy.
Actually, I suspected the market got a subtle “buy” last week when Fed Chief Janet Yellen made special reference to a “new normal” in her press conference following the FOMC minutes, explaining that rates may be depressed by, “factors that are not going to be rapidly disappearing, but will be part of the new normal.”
The Fed felt the need to head off any selling in stocks that might arise from the Brits opting out of the EU Thursday. Their concern is lessened now. It will be interesting to see what she says when she speaks again this week at 10:00 a.m. Tuesday and Wednesday.
Buying on a “gap” open has risks of paying up for stocks. Some of the pre-open buying has to be short covering.
Assuming the Brits stay, other uncertainties will persist – careful !
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
RESISTANCE: “today” DJIA:17,896 ; S&P 500:2,097; Nasdaq Comp.:4,873.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NEW PROJECTION:
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of June 17, 2016, a reasonable risk is 17,518 a more extreme risk is 17,388. Near-term upside potential is 17,901.Support here is being tested.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ELECTION YEAR PATTERN BEARISH AFTER MARCH
(I will repeat this regularly to keep readers aware of the potential for an April correction)
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q2, and 2016 earnings questionable. Fed has market under its spell.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Yellen’s “New Normal” Fed’s New Micromanagement Tool ?

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 17,773
S&P 500: 2,077
Nasdaq Comp.:4,844
Russell 2000: 1,148
Friday, June 17, 2016 9:03 a.m.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Fed Chief Janet Yellen made special reference to a “new normal” Wednesday in her press conference following the FOMC minutes, explaining that rates may be depressed by, “factors that are not going to be rapidly disappearing, but will be part of the new normal.”
As I suspected, the Street took that as a green light to buy.
For years, the Street has responded to the prospect of an increase in interest rates by the Fed, buying when it appeared the Fed was holding firm, selling when rumors floated that a hike was possible.
In fact, the Street has been so obsessed with the Fed, it has rooted for bad news over good news, since it was assurance the Fed wouldn’t raise rates.
If that is the case, the Street will do what it has done for years – buy without regard for any other considerations – over valuation of stocks, economies here and abroad, the election, and any global hotspot that raises its ugly head.
Make sense ? No, but it is what it is, and bad will be good until bad really gets bad, then duck !
The Fed feels the need to head off any selling in stocks that might arise from the Brits opting out of the EU, as well as any negative pressures that may arise like Q2 earnings, the election, and an economy that has been showing signs of tiring.
It appears it would take a major resurgence in economic growth to justify an increase in rates at this point.
That can happen, but it is not likely, since the current economic expansion is getting up in years. At 87 months, it is the 4th longest since World War II.
Brexit
For now, Brexit is center stage with a stay or leave vote scheduled to take place on Thursday, June 23. Polls show the leave vote gaining traction.
A leave vote would have global consequences here and abroad, Yellen said yesterday, and pre-market futures trading this morning suggests fear of that possibility is beginning to impact Wall Street.
The other side of that coin is the possibility that the Brits will stay, in which case we can expect a very sharp rally.
TODAY
Yesterday, I headlined “Yellen: New Normal – “Bullish ? ” because I thought Yellen was trying to head off a further sell off in stocks, as the market heads into choppy waters, first Brexit, then Q2 earnings, the possibility of more evidence of weakness in the economy and the uncertainty and negativity of campaigning leading up to the November election.
I did not see any major reference to new normal in the financial coverage yesterday or today ! Usually, they parse every word.
Whether she is successful in heading off any further downside will be evident in coming months.
What’s important is, it may not work this time, and that’s good reason for caution.
Today is Quadruple Witching Friday where index options, index futures, stock options and stock futures expire on the same day, an event that hits four times a year with the potential to be disruptive to the market.
Yesterday’s rebound was a sign that buyers are still ready to pounce on any market weakness. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:17,648; S&P 500:2,067; Nasdaq Comp.:4,814.
RESISTANCE: “today” DJIA: 17,801; S&P 500:2,084; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,861.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NEW PROJECTION:
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of May 26, 2016, a reasonable risk is 17,656 a more extreme risk is 17,526. Near-term upside potential is 17,963.Support here is being tested.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
ELECTION YEAR PATTERN BEARISH AFTER MARCH
(I will repeat this regularly to keep readers aware of the potential for an April correction)
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but very, very vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 45%. Consider 75% now if tolerance for risk is low.
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q2, and 2016 earnings questionable. Fed has market under its spell.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.