Raise a Little More Cash

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:17,251
S&P 500:2,015
Nasdaq Comp.:4,728
Russell 2000: 1,066
Tuesday: March 16, 2016 8:51 a.m.
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ECONOMIC REPORTS
This is a big week for reports on the economy. Today: Wednesday: CPI and Housing Starts (8:30); Industrial Production (9:15) and the FOMC report (2:00) and press conference (2:30). Thursday: Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Business Outlook (8:30), JOLTS and Leading Indicators (10:00); Friday: Consumer Sentiment (10:00).
The FED
The FOMC reports at 2:00 a.m. today, followed by Fed Chief Janet Yellen’s press conference. A bump in interest rates is not expected, but expect one in April or June, and Yellen will confirm that is likely in her press conference. Employment and inflation data are beginning to support another hike soon.
Note: Fed speakers Friday: Dudley (9:00), Rosengren (11:00), and Bullard (3:00) Note: Bullard tends to be a “market mover !” (and I think he enjoys the role).
EARNINGS
Briefing.com’s Patrick J. O’Hare called attention to a little known (appreciated) projection by S&P Capital I.Q. for 2016 earnings. S&P now projects earnings for S&P 500 this year to grow 1.7% vs. its January target of plus 7.4% . Q1 earnings are now projected to be down 6.8% from January’s projection of plus 1.2%. Q2 are projected at minus 2.0%.
If this is the case, the S&P 500, just 5.2% off its all-time high, is vulnerable to a serious correction.
TODAY
The higher this market climbs, the riskier it gets for new buying.
I have urged traders to do some selling in recent days, and that goes for others who have profits and a small cash reserve.
Current levels of many stocks are not supported by fundamentals. Much of the gain since mid-February can be attributed to a normal bounce from an oversold condition, as well as a rebound in oil prices.
I think the latter is overblown. It is corporate earnings that really matter, and the trend is for them to fall far short of forecasts for 2016.
I have called this a “phony market” on numerous occasions in the past, and hold to that opinion.
In December, I forecast a top in early January and a rough year as a whole, though several buying opportunities. We had the top in January, and one buying opportunity. I expect a couple more corrections, one starting within a month.
The only game changer would be if Q3 and Q4 earnings are revised significantly higher in coming months. Currently, the revisions are down, not up..
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SUPPORT ‘today”: DJIA:17,161; S&P 500:2,009 ; Nasdaq Comp.:4,711. Breaking this level raises chances of a drop to DJIA:17,026; S&P 500: 1,993; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,671.
RESISTANCE : “today”: DJIA:17,296; S&P 500:2,026; Nasdaq Comp.:4,752.
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MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
As of March 11, 2016, a reasonable risk is 17,073 a more extreme risk is 16,970. Near-term upside potential is 17,586
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 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45%. Consider 75% now
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q1, and 2016 earnings questionable.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of economic data
For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

No One Talking About Earnings – YET !

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:17,229
S&P 500:2,019
Nasdaq Comp4,750.:
Russell 2000: 1,084
Tuesday: March 15, 2016 9:08a.m.
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ECONOMIC REPORTS
This is a big week for reports on the economy. Today: PPI-FD, Retail Sales, Empire State Mfg. (8:30); Business Inventories and the Housing Market Index (10:00). Wednesday: CPI and Housing Starts (8:30); Industrial Production (9:15) and the FOMC report (2:00) and press conference (2:30). Thursday: Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Business Outlook (8:30), JOLTS and Leading Indicators (10:00); Friday: Consumer Sentiment (10:00).
The FED
The FOMC reports at 2:00 a.m. Wednesday followed by Fed Chief Janet Yellen’s press conference. A bump in interest rates is not expected, but don’t be surprised if Yellen jolts the Street with comments about rate increases during the rest of 2016, assuming inflation and employment edge higher.
Note: Fed speakers Friday: Dudley (9:00), Rosengren (11:00), and Bullard (3:00) Note: Bullard tends to be a “market mover !” (and I think he enjoys the role).
EARNINGS
Briefing.com’s Patrick J. O’Hare called attention to a little known (appreciated) projection by S&P Capital I.Q. for 2016 earnings. S&P now projects earnings for S&P 500 this year to grow 1.7% vs. its January target of plus 7.4% . Q1 earnings are now projected to be down 6.8% from January’s projection of plus 1.2%. Q2 are projected at minus 2.0%.
If this is the case, the S&P 500, just 5.2% off its all-time high, is vulnerable to a serious correction.
TODAY
Watch for moves in oil prices to begin to lose their impact on stock prices. That may happen within the next three weeks. That would signal a change in the Street’s focus to something else, probably earnings. Oil was down yesterday, the market held steady !
The FOMC meets this week with an economic report and press conference Wednesday at 2:00 and 2:30 a.m. respectively. The Fed is expected to pass on another bump in rates, but comments by Fed Chief Janet Yellen about additional rate bumps this year may jolt the Street.
The market has momentum, as sideline sitters start to jump in. Odds favor a push a bit higher, then a sideways saw-toothed trading range into mid-to-late April when the market becomes vulnerable to a major sell off.
Traders should use any strength to feed out a little more stock. Investing should be selective.
Again, I am looking for a slowdown in the rebound that started in February and a saw-toothed, sideways trend into April FOLLOWED BY A CORRECTION. The temptation now is to jump in with both feet. That becomes more and more risky as the market edges up. The correction can come earlier if triggered by an event, such as projections for disappointing earnings in 2016, a drop in oil prices, or commentary by the Fed interest rates will rise sharply this year.
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SUPPORT ‘today”: DJIA:17,058; S&P 500:1,998 ; Nasdaq Comp.:4,691;
RESISTANCE : “today”: DJIA:17,316; S&P 500:2,031; Nasdaq Comp.:4,761.
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MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
As of March 11, 2016, a reasonable risk is 17,073 a more extreme risk is 16,970. Near-term upside potential is 17,586
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 STATUS OF MARKET: Bearish – but trying to turn. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, but opportunity for traders at lower levels.
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45%. Consider 75% now
 KEY FACTORS: Fear taking hold. Concern for the number and extent of additional bumps in interest rates by the Fed; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q1, and 2016 earnings as a whole.
The Street is counting on a big jump in Q3 and Q4.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of economic data
For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
*Stock trader’s Almanac
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Stock Buybacks Driving Rebound in Prices

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:17,213
S&P 500:2,022
Nasdaq Comp.:4,748
Russell 2000: 1,087
Monday: March 14, 2016 9:08a.m.
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EARNINGS
At some point oil, the ECB, China, and the Fed will have to give way to Corporate earnings as the Street’s prime focus – and concern.
All these other issues have an impact on investor sentiment, but earnings has a more direct impact on the valuation of stocks.
Briefing.com’s Patrick J. O’Hare called attention to a little known (appreciated) projection by S&P Capital I.Q. for 2016 earnings. S&P now projects earnings for S&P 500 this year to grow 1.7% vs. its January target of plus 7.4% . Q1 earnings are now projected to be down 6.8% from January’s projection of plus 1.2%. Q2 are projected at minus 2.0%.
If this is the case, the S&P 500, just 5.2% off its all-time high, is vulnerable to a serious correction.
OIL
The Street is confronted with a lot of variables this week. The stock market continues to march to oil’s drumbeat.
This week, Bloomberg’s Julian Lee, stresses the reason for the strength in oil prices even while inventories are rising is because traders expect non-OPEC and U.S. production to slide in coming months, reducing inventories, bringing demand into better balance with supplies. Lee dismisses the increase in U.S. inventories in Q1 of 2016 as a seasonal aberration. The Dept. of Energy’s short-term outlook forecasts non-OPEC production will drop by 440,000 barrels per day over 2016. This compares with its January forecast of a drop of 90,000 bpd during 2016.
STOCK “BUYBACKS” FUELING REBOUND IN PRICES
Another gem out of Bloomberg is Lu Wang’s contention that much of the rebound in stock prices over the past month is buybacks of stock by companies. S&P 500 companies are on track to purchase $165 billion worth of stock this quarter, four times the $40 billion being dumped by mutual funds, hedge funds and ETFs.
S&P 500 companies held $900 billion in cash at year-end 2015. Too bad these companies aren’t spending more on plant and equipment and training programs.
Repurchases tend to recede during earnings reporting periods, the next one being April, the month I expect another correction.
TODAY
Watch for moves in oil prices to begin to lose their impact on stock prices. That may happen within the next three weeks. That would signal a change in the Street’s focus to something else, probably earnings.
The FOMC meets this week with an economic report and press conference Wednesday at 2:00 and 2:30 a.m. respectively. The Fed is expected to pass on another bump in rates, but comments by Fed Chief Janet Yellen about additional rate bumps this year may jolt the Street.
Traders should use any strength to feed out a little more stock. Investing should be selective.
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SUPPORT ‘today”: DJIA:17,087; S&P 500:2,006 ; Nasdaq Comp.:4,713 ;
RESISTANCE : “today”: DJIA:17,312; S&P 500:2,033; Nasdaq Comp.:4,776.
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MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
As of March 11, 2016, a reasonable risk is 17,073 a more extreme risk is 16,970. Near-term upside potential is 17,586
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 STATUS OF MARKET: Bearish – but trying to turn. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, but opportunity for traders at lower levels.
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45%. Consider 75% now
 KEY FACTORS: Fear taking hold. Concern for the number and extent of additional bumps in interest rates by the Fed; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q1, and 2016 earnings as a whole.
The Street is counting on a big jump in Q3 and Q4.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of economic data
For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
*Stock trader’s Almanac
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

No Room For a Rally Failure – None !

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:16,995
S&P 500:1,989
Nasdaq Comp.:4,662
Russell 2000: 1,063
Friday: March 11, 2016 9:11a.m.
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Oil prices may be reaching a peak near-term, as the International Energy Agency (IEA) just announced oil prices may have bottomed. Traders will likely use the news and accompanying spike in oil prices to sell. Dire forecasts of $20 oil were abundant in late January prior to a 42% rebound in WTI crude from $26.55 a barrel. Traders used that news and price weakness to buy.
TODAY:
Stock index futures are sizzling this morning in a delayed reaction to the ECB’s announcement yesterday of a reduction in borrowing costs and expansion in its QE to corporate bonds.
Is this good news, or bad ? What can be done if this action doesn’t work ?
Again, I get back to the tug of war between bulls and bears. Yesterday it was first the bulls, then the bears appeared to gain an edge.
While the bulls are off to a good start, they cannot fail to follow through today. If they succeed, I don’t expect another major correction until late April when the May – June negative seasonality sets it.
Part of today’s strength may be in anticipation that the Fed won’t bump interest rates next Wednesday. That euphoria may be premature, since Fed Chief Janet Yellen may announce the prospect for increases in rates at subsequent meetings.
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RESISTANCE : “today”: DJIA:17,196; S&P 500:2,012; Nasdaq Comp.:4,718
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MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
As of March 2, 2016, a reasonable risk is 16,716 a more extreme risk is 16,651. Near-term upside potential is 17,134
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 STATUS OF MARKET: Bearish – but trying to turn. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, but opportunity for traders at lower levels.
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45%. Consider 75% now
 KEY FACTORS: Fear taking hold. Concern for the number and extent of additional bumps in interest rates by the Fed; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q1, and 2016 earnings as a whole.
The Street is counting on a big jump in Q3 and Q4.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of economic data
For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
*Stock trader’s Almanac
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

ECB Action May Not Help – What Then ?

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:17,000
S&P 500:1,989
Nasdaq Comp.:4,674
Russell 2000: 1,072
Thursday: March 10, 2016 8:48 a.m.
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The stock-index futures got a big boost before the open by the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) decision to lower its benchmark interest rate to zero, cut its deposit rate to minus 0.4%, and increase its asset purchases to 80 billion euros from 60 billion euros, all designed to counter deflation and stimulate a lagging economy in the euro area.
That’s enough to hand the bulls a slight edge in the tug of war, but will the ECBs action accomplish anything ?
Right now, the markets are riding a crest of relief that, “we didn’t crash after all,” referring to the scary way January kicked off.
All this increases the possibility that any correction of significance will not occur until late April when a seasonal pattern kicks in that has historically favored the bears. While Nov.1 to May 1 has historically been the best six months of the year, May 1 to November 1 has underperformed.*
In such a news sensitive market and a divisive presidential election year, anything can happen between now and late April, but it is important to look ahead just in case the market is sizzling in late April and the thought of a correction is the last thing anyone is expecting.
TODAY:
Today’s surge punches further into an area of resistance, the levels from which the market plunged in January.
Buying the ECB news alone is risky, especially buying at the open when prices are marked up sharply. Traders who bought at lower prices should lighten up a bit more.
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RESISTANCE : “today”: DJIA:17,134; S&P 500:2,008; Nasdaq Comp.:4,716
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MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
As of March 2, 2016, a reasonable risk is 16,716 a more extreme risk is 16,651. Near-term upside potential is 17,134
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Bearish – but trying to turn. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, but opportunity for traders at lower levels.
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45%. Consider 75% now
 KEY FACTORS: Fear taking hold. Concern for the number and extent of additional bumps in interest rates by the Fed; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q1, and 2016 earnings as a whole.
The Street is counting on a big jump in Q3 and Q4.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of economic data
For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
*Stock trader’s Almanac
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Who Is Winning the Tug of War Now ?

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:16,964
S&P 500:1,979
Nasdaq Comp.:4,648
Russell 2000: 1,067
Wednesday: March 9, 2016 8:48 a.m.
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The bulls gave it a good effort yesterday, rallying the market after an early sell off. Sellers were waiting to stop the rally and drive stocks down close to the lows for the day.
The market has had a good run (9.3%) since its February low (DJIA:15,503; S&P 500: 1,810), so a correction is normal. That happens to coincide with the market running into resistance in the area from which broke down in January, generally a bit above DJIA 17,000 and S&P 500: 2,000.
With the market poised to open higher today, the bulls will be giving it another go.
A lot can be learned by attempts by the bulls and bears to move the ball at key junctures. Another failure to close on the upside, worse yet sell off sharply at the close, suggests a correction.
Should the bulls win the joust, the uptrend that started in mid-February has further to go as it probes deeper into resistance.
After the 13% plunge in January, the market has sought equilibrium, a comfort level, where there are uncertainties of a presidential election year, an iffy economy here and abroad, volatile commodity prices, and concern that the Fed may bump rates more than once this year.
From here it is a tug of war with the potential for a big move one way or the other.
One issue that hasn’t gotten much attention is corporate earnings, especially those projected for Q3 and Q4, where the Street has expected a big rebound.
TODAY:
Short-term, the Street will be focused on the Fed and what it does with interest rates next Wednesday. Odds favor a “pass.” More importantly though will be what Fed Chief Janet Yellen say in her press conference 2:30 Wednesday.
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SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:16,870 ; S&P 500:1,968; Nasdaq Comp.:4,623
RESISTANCE : “today”: DJIA:17,036; S&P 500:1,987; Nasdaq Comp.:4,672
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MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
As of March 2, 2016, a reasonable risk is 16,716 a more extreme risk is 16,651. Near-term upside potential is 17,134
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Bearish – but trying to turn. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, but opportunity for traders at lower levels.
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45%. Consider 75% now
 KEY FACTORS: Fear taking hold. Concern for the number and extent of additional bumps in interest rates by the Fed; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q1, and 2016 earnings as a whole.
The Street is counting on a big jump in Q3 and Q4.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of economic data
For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
*Stock trader’s Almanac
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Traders Lighten Up – Buyers Very Selective

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:17,073
S&P 500: 2,001
Nasdaq Comp.: 4,708
Russell 2000: 1,094
Tuesday: March 8, 2016 9:06 a.m.
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The market is presently running into selling with major overhead supply starting around DJIA 17,176; S&P 500: 2,021; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,796. That’s where the market started to break down in January.
With enough momentum, the market can penetrate that area more deeply, and with unexpectedly good news blow through it.
That is unlikely this year, though there is a possibility the market will press up irregularly into late April when the odds increase significantly for it to slide into a correction. The six months between May 1 and November 1 pale compared with the November to May six months.*
As noted before, the Jan./Feb. rebound is a mirror image of the Sept./Oct. 2015 rebound from its “flash crash” low.
What would trigger a drop before then ?
Downward revisions in Q3 and Q4 earnings, for one. Fed action to increase rates this month (15th), for another. Oil may lose its recent luster as the reality sets in that a freeze is not a production cut. While the Fed is not expected to bump rates next week, comments by Fed Chief Janet Yellen in her 2:30 press conference may indicate more rate increases are on the horizon.
Of the three, earnings have the greatest potential to crunch the market if projected worse than expected, especially Q3 and Q4. If the unexpected happens, and suddenly the Street revises earnings higher, all bets are off. Currently, I am not comfortable with any projections I see – too early
TODAY:
While the DJIA was up yesterday, the S&P 500 was flat and the Nasdaq Comp. was down.
Today will open lower. What is important to watch here is, will the bulls jump on slightly lower prices, or have prices run too far in a short period of time without a correction.
The fear of a bear market has faded, though still a strong possibility. A greater possibility is there will be more plunges in the market in face of a host of uncertainties, not the least of which is the election in November.
I see no good reason to chase rising stocks in this environment. Traders with nice gains can consider taking some of their profits on any strength.
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SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:16,955; S&P 500:1,992; Nasdaq Comp.:4,681
RESISTANCE : “today”: DJIA:17,127; S&P 500:2,007; Nasdaq Comp.:4,721.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
As of March 2, 2016, a reasonable risk is 16,716 a more extreme risk is 16,651. Near-term upside potential is 17,134
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Bearish – but trying to turn. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, but opportunity for traders at lower levels.
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45%. Consider 75% now
 KEY FACTORS: Fear taking hold. Concern for the number and extent of additional bumps in interest rates by the Fed; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q1, and 2016 earnings as a whole.
The Street is counting on a big jump in Q3 and Q4.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of economic data
For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
*Stock trader’s Almanac
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Market Has Enetered Area of Resistance

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:17,006
S&P 500: 1,999
Nasdaq Comp. : 4,717.:
Russell 2000: 1,081
Monday: March 7, 2016 9:06 a.m.
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The market is presently running into selling with major overhead supply starting around DJIA 17,176; S&P 500: 2,021; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,796. That’s where the market started to break down in January.
The market has upside momentum comparable to the momentum it has developed on the downside in January prior to the formation of a double bottom around DJIA 15,500 (S&P 500: 1,810).
The driver is twofold: The price of oil has extended its rebound, as short sellers scramble for cover in face of commentary that $20 oil is no longer likely. Then too, the Fed is not expected to bump rates again at its March 15 FOMC meeting. The employment numbers are looking good, but manufacturing is still in a mini recession.
As noted before, the Jan./Feb. rebound is a mirror image of the Sept./Oct. 2015 rebound from its “flash crash” low.
While too early to project, there is a possibility the market will press up irregularly into late April when the odds increase significantly for it to slide into a correction.
What would trigger a drop before then ?
Downward revisions in Q3 and Q4 earnings, for one. Fed action to increase rates this month (15th), for another. Oil may lose its recent luster as the reality sets in that a freeze is not a production cut. While the Fed is not expected to bump rates next week, comments by Fed Chief Janet Yellen in her 2:30 press conference may indicate more rate increases are on the horizon.
Of the three, earnings have the greatest potential to crunch the market if projected worse than expected, especially Q3 and Q4. If the unexpected happens, and suddenly the Street revises earnings higher, all bets are off. Currently, I am not comfortable with any projections I see – too early
TODAY:
The market has had a 10% run since its double bottom February 11. Traders will be locking in some profits since the market is nearing major resistance. New buying must be selective.
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SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:16,871; S&P 500:1,984; Nasdaq Comp.:4,681
RESISTANCE : “today”: DJIA:17,113; S&P 500:2,011; Nasdaq Comp.:4,741.
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MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
As of March 2, 2016, a reasonable risk is 16,716 a more extreme risk is 16,651. Near-term upside potential is 17,134
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 STATUS OF MARKET: Bearish – but trying to turn. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, but opportunity for traders at lower levels.
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45%. Consider 75% now
 KEY FACTORS: Fear taking hold. Concern for the number and extent of additional bumps in interest rates by the Fed; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q1, and 2016 earnings as a whole.
The Street is counting on a big jump in Q3 and Q4.
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Note: Source of economic data
For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Traders: Lock In Some Gains

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:16,943
S&P 500: 1,993
Nasdaq Comp.: 4,707.:
Russell 2000: 1,076
Friday: March 4, 2016 9:06 a.m.
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The February Jobs Report was a solid increase of 242,000, unemployment rate 4.9% (participation 62.9%).
Good stuff but unlikely to force Fed this late in the game to bump rates following its FOMC meeting next week. However, in her press conference at 2:30 next Wednesday, Fed Chief Janet Yellen may indicate a bump at its April meeting and may suggest several more in line for 2016.
While the market has moved in lockstep with oil prices in recent months, it may start to key more and more on the Fed after these jobs numbers.
While conventional technical analysis would lean toward a bump and grind market pressing up into late April, before a major correction, this is an unusually unconventional market, a correction may start sooner.
Presently, I see major overhead supply starting around DJIA 17,176; S&P 500: 2,021; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,796. That’s where the market started to break down in January.
What would trigger a drop before then ?
Downward revisions in Q3 and Q4 earnings, for one. Fed action to increase rates this month (15th), and or, an increasing likelihood the Fed will follow up wit two more bumps this year. Finally, an inventory glut driven plunge in oil prices.
The market has had a 10% run since its double bottom February 11. Traders will be locking in some profits since the market is nearing major resistance. New buying must be selective.
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SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:16,826; S&P 500:1,981; Nasdaq Comp. :4,681
RESISTANCE : “today”: DJIA:17,021; S&P 500:2,003; Nasdaq Comp.:4,733.
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MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
As of March 2, 2016, a reasonable risk is 16,716 a more extreme risk is 16,651. Near-term upside potential is 17,134
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 STATUS OF MARKET: Bearish – but trying to turn. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, but opportunity for traders at lower levels.
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45%. Consider 75% now
 KEY FACTORS: Fear taking hold. Concern for the number and extent of additional bumps in interest rates by the Fed; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q1, and 2016 earnings as a whole.
The Street is counting on a big jump in Q3 and Q4.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of economic data
For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Market Approaching Key Resistance

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:16,899
S&P 500: 1,986
Nasdaq Comp.:4,703
Russell 2000: 1,665
Thursday: March 3, 2016 9:12 a.m.
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Ah yes ! When the fear of owning stocks turns to the fear of not owning stocks. That’s what’s starting to happen as stocks press upward, defying gravity.
That’s the human factor that makes the “buy low – sell high” advice so difficult to execute.
Only the instinctive trader had the guts to buy at the January and February bottoms when it seemed certain a bear market was only partly underway.
But now that the DJIA and S&P 500 have recouped two- thirds of their 2016 loss, there is pressure to BUY.
The “train leaving the station without you” has always created angst among investors. That same angst also caused them to sell near the bottoms in January and February.
It’s just humans being humans. But get on the wrong side of a move in the market, up or down, and the angst becomes real.
So, instinctive traders aside, be careful here. This looks a bit too pat. Just because the October 2015 market roared undeterred out of a big setback in August, is no guarantee today’s market will do the same, however similar the patterns.
Conventional technical analysis would lean toward a bump and grind market pressing up into late April, before a major correction.
Presently, I see major overhead supply starting around DJIA 17,176; S&P 500: 2,021; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,796. That’s where the market started to break down in January.
What would trigger a drop before then ?
Downward revisions in Q3 and Q4 earnings, for one. Fed action to increase rates this month (15th), and or, an increasing likelihood the Fed will follow up wit two more bumps this year. Finally, an inventory glut driven plunge in oil prices.
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SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:16,774 S&P 500:1,969; Nasdaq Comp. :4,668.
RESISTANCE : “today”: DJIA:16,996; S&P 500:1,996; Nasdaq Comp.:4,731
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MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
As of March 2, 2016, a reasonable risk is 16,716 a more extreme risk is 16,651. Near-term upside potential is 17,134
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Bearish – but trying to turn. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, but opportunity for traders at lower levels.
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45%. Consider 75% now
 KEY FACTORS: Fear taking hold. Concern for the number and extent of additional bumps in interest rates by the Fed; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q1, and 2016 earnings as a whole.
The Street is counting on a big jump in Q3 and Q4.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of economic data
For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.