April Shaping Up as a Key Month

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:17,716
S&P 500:2,063
Nasdaq Comp.:4,869
Russell 2000: 1,110
Thursday: March 31, 2016 8:58 a.m.
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ECONOMY
The ADP Employment report showed a gain of 200,000 jobs. The Employment Situation comes report Friday 8:30 a.m.. However four manufacturing reports hit this week. This group is trying to rise out of a slump, so any uptick will be a positive.
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing report Monday 10:30 came in a bit better than expected; the Chicago PMI hits today at 9:45; and PMI and ISM Manufacturing reports come at 9:45 and 10:00 respectively Friday.
EARNINGS (Nothing new – re-read anyhow – important)
In two weeks Q1 earnings will begin to flow and are projected to be down, as are Q2 earnings. It doesn’t get more fundamental than earnings, yet other issues have dominated the attention of the Street so far this year.
April could be the “decider” on whether 2016 is a bear market year, or just a volatile one with big swings up and down as we near the November election.
S&P Capital IQ is projecting S&P 500’s earnings in Q1 to drop 7.0% and Q2 to drop 2.1%.* Earnings are projected to rise only 1.5%, down from a projection of plus 7.4% as recently as January.
ELECTION YEAR PATTERN BEARISH AFTER MARCH
(I will repeat this regularly to keep readers aware of the potential for an April correction)
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
This supports my December forecast of an ugly January, a rough year as a whole, but with several buying opportunities.
TODAY
Yesterday’s market action allows for a little more upside with “relief buying” by institutions buoyed by Fed Chief Yellen’s comments about a rise in interest rates not being as imminent as certain Fed officials have indicated. Looks like a mutiny at the Fed, or let’s say sharp divide with female Yellen’s authority and judgement being challenged.
Great ! Just what we need.
I am still expecting volatility as the market heads into the Q1 earnings season. Q1 is expected to be ugly. Anything better than that bumps stocks up, however as noted above, April is shaping up as a month a sharp correction begins in keeping with the pattern for the eighth year of a presidency (see above).
We may get a feel next month for what the Street expects for earnings this year, as companies and analysts release guidance and projections for Q’s 2, 3, and 4. At these levels, the market cannot handle another flat year in earnings growth, especially with the possibility of a recession next year, or in 2018.
The U.S. dollar is down again today, which favors a slight bump up in stock and oil prices.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:17,623; S&P 500:2,053; Nasdaq Comp.:4,841.
RESISTANCE “today”: DJIA:17,797; S&P 500:2,073; Nasdaq Comp.:4,897.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of March 11, 2016, a reasonable risk is 17,073 a more extreme risk is 16,970. Near-term upside potential is 17,586
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45%. Consider 75% now
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q1, and 2016 earnings questionable.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Briefing.com
**Stock Trader’s Almanac
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Why Isn’t the Fed Raising Rates Now ?

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:17,633
S&P 500:2,055
Nasdaq Comp.:4,846
Russell 2000: 1,109
Wednesday: March 30, 2016 8:54 a.m.
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Fed Chief Janet Yellen made it official – the Fed has totally backed away from its December forecast of four interest rate hikes in 2016 and opted for a policy of “gradualism” tied to developments in economies and markets here and abroad, inflation, the dollar, and housing.
If the Street was wary of a rise in interest rates at the April meeting as speculated recently by Fed’s Bullard, Harker and Lockhart, Yellen eased their fears.
I would prefer a rise in rates if it indicated a robust economic expansion was under way. That would suggest corporate earnings would drop less than projected.
Today, Fed’s Charles Evans speaks at 1:00 p.m. and again at 9:30 Thursday. Friday, Loretta Mester speaks (1:00 p.m.).
ECONOMY
The ADP Employment report showed a gain of 200,000 jobs. The Employment Situation comes report Friday 8:30 a.m.. However four manufacturing reports hit this week. This group is trying to rise out of a slump, so any uptick will be a positive.
The Dallas Fed Manufacturing report Monday 10:30 came in a bit better than expected; the Chicago PMI hits on Thursday at 9:45; and PMI and ISM Manufacturing reports come at 9:45 and 10:00 respectively Friday.
EARNINGS (Nothing new – re-read anyhow – important)
In two weeks Q1 earnings will begin to flow and are projected to be down, as are Q2 earnings. It doesn’t get more fundamental than earnings, yet other issues have dominated the attention of the Street so far this year.
April could be the “decider” on whether 2016 is a bear market year, or just a volatile one with big swings up and down as we near the November election.
S&P Capital IQ is projecting S&P 500’s earnings in Q1 to drop 7.0% and Q2 to drop 2.1%.* Earnings are projected to rise only 1.5%, down from a projection of plus 7.4% as recently as January.
Hopefully, a weak dollar will enable companies to post better numbers than currently projected, but that will take time. They will have to in order to justify the current level of stocks.
ELECTION YEAR PATTERN BEARISH AFTER MARCH
(I will repeat this regularly to keep readers aware of the potential for an April correction)
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
This supports my December forecast of an ugly January, a rough year as a whole, but with several buying opportunities.
TODAY
While it would be easy to go get caught up in the Street’s relief and euphoria over news the Fed won’t raise rates (after fears it would), one must ASK WHY ?
As noted, in December, the Fed was ready to raise rates four times in 2016, then only two a couple weeks ago, and now not at all.
While she referred to “external risks” here and abroad, as a reason for her decision. If these risks are severe enough to influence Fed policy, the severity of those risks should be spelled out in detail, so investors don’t take what is a negative as a bright green light to increase their exposure to those risks.
While triggered by Fed Chief Yellen’s comments, yesterday’s rise in prices after a three-day correction, kicks off the early April strength, which I believe will set the stage for a peak in April. This is the volatility I have expected.
The market jumped sharply yesterday after Yellen’s comments, and will open strong today.
Of all its successful efforts to generate buying in stocks and bonds, this one carries high risk. The bull market is long in the tooth and near all-time highs. This isn’t February 2009 when the DJIA was down more than 50% and no one would buy stocks. The downside risk here is a lot greater than the upside potential.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:17,563; S&P 500:2,047; Nasdaq Comp.:4,828.
RESISTANCE “today”: DJIA:17,749; S&P 500:2,069; Nasdaq Comp.:4,878.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of March 11, 2016, a reasonable risk is 17,073 a more extreme risk is 16,970. Near-term upside potential is 17,586
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45%. Consider 75% now
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q1, and 2016 earnings questionable.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators: mam.econoday.com.
*Briefing.com
**Stock Trader’s Almanac

…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
Brooks007read@aol.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Fed Chief Yellen Speaks Today (11:30)

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:17,535
S&P 500:2,037
Nasdaq Comp.:4,766
Russell 2000: 1,080
Tuesday: March 29, 2016 8:54 a.m.
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I AM ALWAYS UNEASY WHEN THE FED IS OUT ON THE CIRCUIT SPEAKING ABOUT POLICY. IN MY OPINION, IT IS CONSTANTLY TRYING TO MANAGE THE DIRECTION OF STOCK PRICES, SOMETHING I DON’T BELIEVE IT SHOULD DO.
WHAT’S MORE, IT HAS DEMONSTRATED IT HAS NO COHERENT OR CONSISTENT POLICY AND THAT’S DANGEROUS.
If their micromanaging of the stock market is wrong, an adjustment to reality can be sudden and destructive to stock values. It’s best to let the normal flow of sentiments based on fundamental, economic and technical factors determine stock prices, not inconsistent policy statements by the Fed.
Fed Chief Janet Yellen speaks at 11:30 this morning, following a speech by John Williams (5:15 a.m.) and ahead of a speech by Rob Kaplan (1:00 p.m.. Tomorrow Charles Evans speaks at 1:00 p.m. and again at 9:30 Thursday. Friday Loretta Mester speaks (1:00 p.m.).
ECONOMY
The most important economic reports will be the ADP Employment report Wednesday 8:15 and Employment Situation report Friday 8:30 a.m..
U.S. Manufacturing has been the real laggard in this expansion, so the Street will be watching the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report Monday 10:30; the Chicago PMI Thursday 9:45; and PMI and ISM Manufacturing reports at 9:45 and 10:00 respectively Friday.
EARNINGS (Nothing new – re-read anyhow – important)
In two weeks Q1 earnings will begin to flow and are projected to be down, as are Q2 earnings. It doesn’t get more fundamental than earnings, yet other issues have dominated the attention of the Street so far this year.
April could be the “decider” on whether 2016 is a bear market year, or just a volatile one with big swings up and down as we near the November election.
S&P Capital IQ is projecting S&P 500’s earnings in Q1 to drop 7.0% and Q2 to drop 2.1%.* Earnings are projected to rise only 1.5%, down from a projection of plus 7.4% as recently as January.
Hopefully, a weak dollar will enable companies to post better numbers than currently projected, but that will take time. They will have to in order to justify the current level of stocks.
ELECTION YEAR PATTERN BEARISH AFTER MARCH
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
This supports my December forecast of an ugly January, a rough year as a whole, but with several buying opportunities.
TODAY
As noted above, this is a big week for reports on the economy and there will be speeches by five Fed officials.
A sudden pick up in manufacturing and housing can buoy spirits and the prospect for better earnings that projected. Then too, investor sentiments may have become a little too negative as evidenced by reports that investors have been dumping mutual funds and ETFs at a rapid clip over the past year to the tune of a net $135 billion.
Excess sentiment in one direction can set the stage for a reversal, enough so to generate a sizable move in the opposite direction.
We should see an increase in volatility with a choppy market over the next three to four weeks. Historically, the market has spiked up in early April before correcting.
Some of April’s buying has been institutions that want to show a smaller cash position than earlier in the year now that the stock market has rebounded from the worst January on record.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The following levels depend mostly on what Yellen says (or doesn’t say) today.
SUPPORT ‘today”: DJIA:17,465; S&P 500:2,029; Nasdaq Comp.:4,749.
RESISTANCE “today”: DJIA:17,637; S&P 500:2,048; Nasdaq Comp.:4,791.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of March 11, 2016, a reasonable risk is 17,073 a more extreme risk is 16,970. Near-term upside potential is 17,586
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45%. Consider 75% now
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q1, and 2016 earnings questionable.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of economic data
*Briefing.com
**Stock Trader’s Almanac
For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Big Week for Economic Reports

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:17,515
S&P 500:2,035
Nasdaq Comp.:4,773
Russell 2000: 1,079
Monday: March 27, 2016 8:59 a.m.
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
EARNINGS (Nothing new – re-read anyhow – important)
In two weeks Q1 earnings will begin to flow and are projected to be down, as are Q2 earnings. It doesn’t get more fundamental than earnings, yet other issues have dominated the attention of the Street so far this year.
April could be the “decider” on whether 2016 is a bear market year, or just a volatile one with big swings up and down as we near the November election.
S&P Capital IQ is projecting S&P 500’s earnings in Q1 to drop 7.0% and Q2 to drop 2.1%.* Earnings are projected to rise only 1.5%, down from a projection of plus 7.4% as recently as January.
Hopefully, a weak dollar will enable companies to post better numbers than currently projected, but that will take time. They will have to in order to justify the current level of stock prices.
ECONOMY
Big week for reports and speeches by Fed officials including Fed Chief Janet Yellen (Tuesday 11;30 a.m.). Last week the Fed’s Bullard, Lockhart and Williams implied interest rates may have to be raised at the April meeting (a press conference would have to be scheduled in that event). It will be important to see what the message will be this week.
The most important economic reports will be the ADP Employment report Wednesday 8:15 and Employment Situation report Friday 8:30 a.m..
U.S. Manufacturing has been the real laggard in this expansion, so the Street will be watching the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report Monday 10:30; the Chicago PMI Thursday 9:45; and PMI and ISM Manufacturing reports at 9:45 and 10:00 respectively Friday.

The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
This supports my December forecast of an ugly January, a rough year as a whole, but with several buying opportunities.
TODAY
As noted above, this is a big week for reports on the economy and there will be speeches by five Fed officials.
A sudden pick up in manufacturing and housing can buoy spirits and the prospect for better earnings that projected. Then too, investor sentiments may have become a little too negative as evidenced by reports that investors have been dumping mutual funds and ETFs at a rapid clip over the past year to the tune of a net $135 billion.
Excess sentiment in one direction can set the stage for a reversal, enough so to generate a sizable move in the opposite direction.
My idea of timing is to max entry and exit points. Traders do that frequently, but it is important for intermediate-term and long-term investors, as well.
“Deferral of purchase” is important at junctures where the market is vulnerable. A poorly timed buy can take nine months or longer before a stock returns to the purchase price.
“Partial positions” as a buyer or seller help when an investor is unsure which way the market will go, but needs to raise cash, or is compelled to own a stock.
We should see an increase in volatility with a choppy market over the next three to four weeks.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT ‘today”: DJIA:17,429; S&P 500:2,025; Nasdaq Comp.:4,749.
RESISTANCE “today”: DJIA:17,583 ; S&P 500:2,044 ; Nasdaq Comp.:4,796 .
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages.
As of March 11, 2016, a reasonable risk is 17,073 a more extreme risk is 16,970. Near-term upside potential is 17,586
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45%. Consider 75% now
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q1, and 2016 earnings questionable.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of economic data
*Briefing.com
**Stock Trader’s Almanac
For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Market Tracking Bad Seasonal Pattern

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:17,502
S&P 500:2,036
Nasdaq Comp.:4,768.;
Russell 2000: 1,075
Thursday: March 24, 2016 8:59 a.m.
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
EARNINGS (Nothing new – re-read anyhow – important)
In two weeks Q1 earnings will begin to flow and are projected to be down, as are Q2 earnings. It doesn’t get more fundamental than earnings, yet other issues have dominated the attention of the Street so far this year.
April could be the “decider” on whether 2016 is a bear market year, or just a volatile one with big swings up and down as we near the November election.
S&P Capital IQ is projecting S&P 500’s earnings in Q1 to drop 7.0% and Q2 to drop 2.1%.* Earnings are projected to rise only 1.5%, down from a projection of plus 7.4% as recently as January.
Hopefully, a weak dollar will enable companies to post better numbers than currently projected. They will have to in order to justify the current level of stock prices.
TODAY:
The U.S. dollar has been strong for five days in a row, taking a toll on commodities and stocks. Some of its strength is a flight to safety after the Belgium bombings, but more so due to comments by three Fed officials (Bullard, Lockhart,Williams) that interest rates may have to be raised at its April meeting.
I would expect any action on interest rates to be accompanied by a press conference, however none is scheduled for April. If one is, it would be a give-away to a rate rise.
There is simply no consistency to what comes out of the Fed – not good !
With or without the Fed, dollar, oil etc., a correction is normal.
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
This supports my December forecast of an ugly January, a rough year as a whole, but with several buying opportunities.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT ‘today”: DJIA:17,347; S&P 500:2,023; Nasdaq Comp.:4,739.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
As of March 11, 2016, a reasonable risk is 17,073 a more extreme risk is 16,970. Near-term upside potential is 17,586
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45%. Consider 75% now
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q1, and 2016 earnings questionable.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of economic data
*Briefing.com
**Stock Trader’s Almanac
For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:17,502
S&P 500:2,036
Nasdaq Comp.:4,768.;
Russell 2000: 1,075
Thursday: March 24, 2016 8:59 a.m.
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
EARNINGS (Nothing new – re-read anyhow – important)
In two weeks Q1 earnings will begin to flow and are projected to be down, as are Q2 earnings. It doesn’t get more fundamental than earnings, yet other issues have dominated the attention of the Street so far this year.
April could be the “decider” on whether 2016 is a bear market year, or just a volatile one with big swings up and down as we near the November election.
S&P Capital IQ is projecting S&P 500’s earnings in Q1 to drop 7.0% and Q2 to drop 2.1%.* Earnings are projected to rise only 1.5%, down from a projection of plus 7.4% as recently as January.
Hopefully, a weak dollar will enable companies to post better numbers than currently projected. They will have to in order to justify the current level of stock prices.
TODAY:
The U.S. dollar has been strong for five days in a row, taking a toll on commodities and stocks. Some of its strength is a flight to safety after the Belgium bombings, but more so due to comments by three Fed officials (Bullard, Lockhart,Williams) that interest rates may have to be raised at its April meeting.
I would expect any action on interest rates to be accompanied by a press conference, however none is scheduled for April. If one is, it would be a give-away to a rate rise.
There is simply no consistency to what comes out of the Fed – not good !
With or without the Fed, dollar, oil etc., a correction is normal.
The market is tracking a pattern for presidential election years where an administration is in its second term.* The news is bad.
Historically, these markets have declined in Jan./Feb., rallied in March then topped out in early April, plunged in May with brief rallies in June and August and a plunge into October prior to the election.
This supports my December forecast of an ugly January, a rough year as a whole, but with several buying opportunities.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT ‘today”: DJIA:17,347; S&P 500:2,023; Nasdaq Comp.:4,739.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
As of March 11, 2016, a reasonable risk is 17,073 a more extreme risk is 16,970. Near-term upside potential is 17,586
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45%. Consider 75% now
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q1, and 2016 earnings questionable.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of economic data
*Briefing.com
**Stock Trader’s Almanac
For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Two-Three Day Correction Healthy

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:17582
S&P 500:2,049
Nasdaq Comp.; 4,821
Russell 2000: 1,097
Wednesday: March 23, 2016 8:58 a.m.
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
EARNINGS
In two weeks Q1 earnings will begin to flow and are projected to be down, as are Q2 earnings. It doesn’t get more fundamental than earnings, yet other issues have dominated the attention of the Street so far this year.
April could be the “decider” on whether 2016 is a bear market year, or just a volatile one with big swings up and down as we near the November election.
S&P Capital IQ is projecting S&P 500’s earnings in Q1 to drop 7.0% and Q2 to drop 2.1%.* Earnings are projected to rise only 1.5%, down from a projection of plus 7.4% as recently as January.
Hopefully, a weak dollar will enable companies to post better numbers than currently projected. They will have to in order to justify the current level of stock prices.
The Fed
I am alarmed that the Fed is so fickle, flip-flopping on policy. It looks like their credibility is at the same level as their interest rate policy – zero plus a smidge.
What’s really bad with its inconsistency is a time will come when a policy position needs to be taken seriously, and no one will believe them.
TODAY:
My March 11 upside target for my technical analysis of each of the 30 Dow industrials (17,586) was reached Friday. The DJIA and S&P 500 have nearly recouped what was lost since the December peak from which stocks plunged, though the Nasdaq Comp. and Russell 2000 are lagging.
Without unexpected bad news, the market should soon find a level where increasing volatility sets in with prices trading in a wide range up and down until late April when odds favor another correction as the election draws nearer.
The U.S. dollar is strong again today, in fact it has been strong for four days now. A plunge in the dollar following last week’s FOMC meeting triggered a rally in commodities and stocks, but so far hasn’t had the reverse impact – yet.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT ‘today”: DJIA:17,483; S&P 500:2,035; Nasdaq Comp.:4,791.
RESISTANCE : “today”: DJIA:17,696; S&P 500:2,063; Nasdaq Comp.:4,853.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
As of March 11, 2016, a reasonable risk is 17,073 a more extreme risk is 16,970. Near-term upside potential is 17,586
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45%. Consider 75% now
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q1, and 2016 earnings questionable.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of economic data
*Briefing.com
For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Market Losing Momentum

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:17,623
S&P 500:2,051
Nasdaq Comp4,808.:
Russell 2000: 1,098
Tuesday: March 22, 2016 8:55 a.m.
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
EARNINGS
In two weeks Q1 earnings will begin to flow and are projected to be down, as are Q2 earnings. It doesn’t get more fundamental than earnings, yet other issues have captured the attention of the Street.
April could be the “decider” on whether 2016 is a bear market year, or just a volatile one with big swings up and down as we near the November election.
S&P Capital IQ is projecting S&P 500’s earnings in Q1 to drop 7.0% and Q2 to drop 2.1%. Earnings are projected to rise only 1.5%, down from a projection of plus 7.4% as recently as January.
Hopefully, a weak dollar will enable companies to post better numbers than currently projected. They will have to in order to justify the current level of stock prices.
The Fed
I am alarmed that the Fed is so fickle, flip-flopping on policy. It looks like their credibility is at the same level as their interest rate policy – zero plus a smidge.
What’s really bad with its inconsistency is a time will come when a policy position needs to be taken seriously, and no one will believe them.
TODAY:
My March 11 upside target for my technical analysis of each of the 30 Dow industrials (17,586) was reached Friday. The DJIA and S&P 500 have nearly recouped what was lost since the December peak from which stocks plunged, though the Nasdaq Comp. and Russell 2000 are lagging.
Without unexpected bad news, the market should soon find a level where increasing volatility sets in with prices trading in a wide range up and down until late April when odds favor another correction as the election draws nearer.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT ‘today”: DJIA:17,501; S&P 500:2,041; Nasdaq Comp.:4,778.
RESISTANCE : “today”: DJIA:17,761; S&P 500:2,067; Nasdaq Comp.:4,845.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
As of March 11, 2016, a reasonable risk is 17,073 a more extreme risk is 16,970. Near-term upside potential is 17,586
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45%. Consider 75% now
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q1, and 2016 earnings questionable.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of economic data
For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Volatility to Increase – Sharp Ups and Downs

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:17,602
S&P 500:2,049
Nasdaq Comp.:4,795
Russell 2000: 1,101
Friday: March 21, 2016 9:04 a.m.
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
The FED
As expected, the Fed did not bump rates Wednesday, and indicated 2016 would involve two bumps instead of the originally planned four.
The Fed’s inconsistency is no surprise, but it has chipped away at its credibility – too much flip-flopping.
With no press conference scheduled for April, and no meeting in May, the next chance the Fed will have to bump rates is June.
THE U.S. DOLLAR (USD)
The ICE U.S. dollar index vs. a basket of 6 major currencies (symbol: DXY) appears to be the “drummer’ that oil prices and blue chip stocks are marching to.
Priced in U.S. dollars, crude oil and commodities rise when the dollar falls and vice versa. A weak dollar makes U.S. goods more attractive in foreign markets and can positively impact U.S. company earnings going forward.
EARNINGS
S&P Capital IQ is projecting S&P 500’s earnings in Q1 to drop 7.0% and Q2 to drop 2.1%. Earnings are projected to rise only 1.5%, down from a projection of plus 7.4% as recently as January.
Hopefully, a weak dollar will enable companies to post better numbers than currently projected. They will have to in order to justify the current level of stock prices.

TODAY:
My March 11 upside target for my technical analysis of each of the 30 Dow industrials (17,586) was reached Friday. The DJIA and S&P 500 have nearly recouped what was lost since the December peak from which stocks plunged, though the Nasdaq Comp. and Russell 2000 are lagging.
The market has momentum. For one, rising prices are encouraging investors to jump in with both feet. For another, A change in Fed policy adds fuel to the fire. Both have pushed stock prices up further than I ever expected.
Without unexpected bad news, the market should soon find a level where increasing volatility sets in with prices trading in a wide range up and down until late April when odds favor another correction as the election draws nearer.
Selective buying is warranted, as well as a healthy cash reserve.
European and Asian central banks are desperately attempting to generate more economic growth. These policies have not worked well for them and are not working well here either. That needs to be taken seriously. The economic numbers here are mixed, with a slight downward bias.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT ‘today”: DJIA:17,472; S&P 500:2,034; Nasdaq Comp.:4,776.
RESISTANCE : “today”: DJIA:17,676; S&P 500:2,059; Nasdaq Comp.:4,815.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
As of March 11, 2016, a reasonable risk is 17,073 a more extreme risk is 16,970. Near-term upside potential is 17,586
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45%. Consider 75% now
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q1, and 2016 earnings questionable.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of economic data
For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

U.S. Dollar’s Direction Now Calling the Shots ?

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:17,481
S&P 500:2,040
Nasdaq Comp.:4,774
Russell 2000: 1,091
Friday: March 19, 2016 9:04 a.m.
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Yes, there is a correlation right now between the two, i.e. U.S. dollar down and S&P 500 up (vice-versa), but historically the correlation is inconsistent.
ECONOMIC REPORTS
This is a big week for reports on the economy. Today – Thursday: Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Business Outlook (8:30), JOLTS and Leading Indicators (10:00); Friday: Consumer Sentiment (10:00).
The FED
As expected, the Fed did not bump rates Wednesday, and indicated 2016 would involve two bumps instead of the originally planned four. It was the latter that caused the market to rally in late trading, since the Fed’s flip-flop triggered a drop in the U.S. dollar, ergo jump in commodity and stock prices.
The Fed meets again on April 26-27 and June 14-15 (no May meeting); July 26-27, September 20-21, November 1-2, December 13-14.
Any bump in interest rates would be accompanied by a press conference which takes April, July, and November off the table. If a meeting is scheduled for any of these dates, it would be a tipoff to a bump in rates.
Then too, how reluctant will the Fed be to bump interest rates ahead of the November 8 election day ? If the Fed is going to bump rates, it will likely be in June and December.
Once again, the Fed has muddied a muddy picture. This was a year the Fed planned 4 increases in rates, now it says to expect two. What does this mean ? The economy is suddenly weaker than expected ? Or, don’t they know what to expect, which is a bit scary.
Note: Fed speakers Friday: Dudley (9:00), Rosengren (11:00), and Bullard (3:00) Note: Bullard tends to be a “market mover !” (and I think he enjoys the role).

THE U.S. DOLLAR (USD)
The ICE U.S. dollar index vs. a basket of 6 major currencies (symbol: DXY) plunged 1.04% to 94.7560 Thursday after the Fed opted to ease off raising interest rates this year (two rather than four).
which now appears to be the “drummer’ that oil prices and blue chip stocks are marching to.
Priced in U.S. dollars, crude oil and commodities rise when the dollar falls and vice versa. A weak dollar makes U.S. goods more attractive in foreign markets and can positively impact U.S. company earnings going forward.

EARNINGS ( Who cares ? No one – yet !)
Briefing.com’s Patrick J. O’Hare called attention to a little known (appreciated) projection by S&P Capital I.Q. for 2016 earnings. S&P now projects earnings for S&P 500 this year to grow 1.7% vs. its January target of plus 7.4% . Q1 earnings are now projected to be down 6.8% from January’s projection of plus 1.2%. Q2 are projected at minus 2.0%.
HOWEVER, as noted above, these projections may be revised back up due to the weakening U.S. dollar.
If this is the case, the S&P 500, just 5.2% off its all-time high, is vulnerable to a serious correction.
So, the stock market and oil and other commodities priced in dollars is really marching to the U.S. dollar’s drumbeat, whereas the rise in oil prices has been a proxy for the dollar, getting credit for the strength in the stock market.
By opting out of a rate increase this month, the Fed sent a signal to the investment community that it wants a weaker dollar to offset the potential for a weakening economy.
TODAY:
The market has momentum. For one, rising prices are encouraging investors to jump in with both feet. For another, A change in Fed policy adds fuel to the fire. Both have pushed stock prices further than I ever expected. It is early in a highly contentious election year, any sudden change in the U.S. dollar, oil prices and economy can take the market down, probably starting in April/May. Under these conditions a healthy cash reserve is warranted.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT ‘today”: DJIA:17,364; S&P 500:2,028; Nasdaq Comp.:4,746.
RESISTANCE : “today”: DJIA:17,551; S&P 500:2,051; Nasdaq Comp.:4,796.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
As of March 11, 2016, a reasonable risk is 17,073 a more extreme risk is 16,970. Near-term upside potential is 17,586
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45%. Consider 75% now
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q1, and 2016 earnings questionable.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of economic data
For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

Street’s Algorithms Ignoring Earnings ?

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA:17,325
S&P 500:2,027
Nasdaq Comp.:4,763
Russell 2000: 1,074
Thursday: March 17, 2016 8:45 a.m.
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
ECONOMIC REPORTS
This is a big week for reports on the economy. Today – Thursday: Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Business Outlook (8:30), JOLTS and Leading Indicators (10:00); Friday: Consumer Sentiment (10:00).
The FED
As expected, the Fed did not bump rates yesterday, and indicated 2016 would involve two bumps instead of originally planned four. It was the latter that caused the market to rally in late trading.
Note: Fed speakers Friday: Dudley (9:00), Rosengren (11:00), and Bullard (3:00) Note: Bullard tends to be a “market mover !” (and I think he enjoys the role).
EARNINGS ( Who cares ? No one – yet !)
Briefing.com’s Patrick J. O’Hare called attention to a little known (appreciated) projection by S&P Capital I.Q. for 2016 earnings. S&P now projects earnings for S&P 500 this year to grow 1.7% vs. its January target of plus 7.4% . Q1 earnings are now projected to be down 6.8% from January’s projection of plus 1.2%. Q2 are projected at minus 2.0%.
If this is the case, the S&P 500, just 5.2% off its all-time high, is vulnerable to a serious correction.
TODAY
Current levels of many stocks are not supported by fundamentals. Much of the gain since mid-February can be attributed to a normal bounce from an oversold condition, corporate stock repurchases, as well as a rebound in oil prices.
Much of the investment decision process today is driven by computer algorithms, which results in robotic momentum – up, and down.
It doesn’t appear the computers are responding to earnings projections “yet,” but they will next month when Q1 reports flow in and guidance and projections for Q2, Q3 and Q4 hit the Street.
If the Street is jolted by reports and projections, the computers will then march to that drummer, just like it has responded to oil prices in recent months, the Fed before that, etc. until a new drummer takes over.
Odds still favor a turndown in April, unless unexpected news triggers a break.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT ‘today”: DJIA:17,2772,021; S&P 500:; Nasdaq Comp.:4,752.
RESISTANCE : “today”: DJIA:17,436; S&P 500:2,038; Nasdaq Comp.:4,796.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the new DJIA “divisor” (0.14602) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
As of March 11, 2016, a reasonable risk is 17,073 a more extreme risk is 16,970. Near-term upside potential is 17,586
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Neutral – but vulnerable. Expect volatility
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk high, Profit taking justified.
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45%. Consider 75% now
 KEY FACTORS: Outlook for Q1, and 2016 earnings questionable.
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of economic data
For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.
…………………………………………………………………….
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.