Big Gain “If” Buyers Step In Before 11:00

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 17,784
S&P 500: 2,090
Nasdaq Comp:5,127
Russell 2000: 1,202c
Monday: Nov. 30, 2015 9:08 a.m.
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This will be one of this year’s most important weeks for reports on the economy, capped by the Employment Situation report Friday at 8:30. Today the Chicago PMI comes at 9:45 a.m., Pending Home Sales at 10:00 and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing report at 10:30. (See mam.econoday.com for details for the week)
The CPI Core index is inching up close to the Fed’s 2.0 pct. trigger but the Core PCE (Fed’s choice) index is lagging. Even so, the Street is expecting the Fed to announce a bump in interest rates Wednesday Dec. 16.
Factory data appears to be stabilizing, though housing has suddenly tapered off.
Key Fed officials will speak: Evans 12:45 p.m. Tuesday; Lockhart 8:10 a.m. Williams 11:00, and Fed Chief Yellen 12:25 Wednesday, Mester at 8:30 a.m. and Yellen (again) at 10:00 a.m. Thursday. Harker at 10:15 Friday, Bullard at 3:45 p.m. and Kocherlakota at 4:10 Friday.
Pre-presidential election years have a record of being the best of the four-year election cycle with presidential election years running a close second. But the eighth year of a two-term presidency is the exception with the S&P 500 losing an average of 10.9% going back to 1901.*
This supports my expectation of a correction in January setting the precedent of a volatile year for stocks in 2016.
TODAY:
Looks positive based on pre-market trading in the stock-index futures. Historically, the Monday after Thanksgiving is a downer, mostly due to end of month portfolio adjustments by institutions.
Those portfolio managers needs to put that money and new money to work so I expect an upbeat December, assuming no unexpected surprises. If we get strong buying before 11:00, my “resistance” levels will be beat with the DJIA getting to 17,967; S&P 500: 2,106; Nasdaq Comp.:5,149.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:17,698; S&P 500:2,078; Nasdaq Comp.:5,115
RESISTANCE “today”: DJIA:17,851; S&P 500:2,096;Nasdaq Comp.:5,162
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
As of November 19, 2015, a reasonable risk is 17,580 a more extreme risk is 17,436. Near-term upside potential is 17,967
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but “at risk” of a correction, especially Fed-based
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk increases with higher market, but light on the Street is GREEN in spite of negatives.
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45% depends on tolerance for risk.
 KEY FACTORS: Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; Stimulus Europe/China a catalyst !!
 CONCLUSION: Suddenly, odds of a December bump up in interest rates has increased dramatically. Over the years, the market has sold off when it appeared that an increase was imminent. It did not do so after the announcement Friday, but did on Monday as the Street began projecting the timing of subsequent rate increases in 2016 – 2017.
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of economic data
For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.
*Stock Trader’s Almanac
…………………………………………………………
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

Some Traders Will Stay…and Why

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 17,813
S&P 500: 2,088
Nasdaq Comp:5,116
Russell 2000: 1,198
Thursday: Nov. 27, 2015 8:58 a.m.
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Trading should be light today for the obvious reasons. Even so, the “must own” Stock Trader’s Almanac (2016 edition available) has a reason for some traders to hand around at least until 1:00 p.m. when the market closes.
Pre-presidential election years have a record of being the best of the four-year election cycle with presidential election years running a close second. But the eighth year of a two-term presidency is the exception with the S&P 500 losing an average of 10.9% going back to 1901.
This supports my expectation of a major correction in January setting the precedent of a rough year for stocks in 2016.
Based on 62 years of data, the Almanac suggests that short-term traders should consider selling certain positions today, since the Monday after Thanksgiving tends to be a downer. Obviously there have been exceptions over the years and this logic is not suitable for all portfolios.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:17,784; S&P 500:2,084; Nasdaq Comp.:5,109
RESISTANCE “today”: DJIA:17,861; S&P 500:2,094;Nasdaq Comp.:5,129
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
As of November 19, 2015, a reasonable risk is 17,580 a more extreme risk is 17,436. Near-term upside potential is 17,967
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but “at risk” of a correction, especially Fed-based
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk increases with higher market, but light on the Street is GREEN in spite of negatives.
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45% depends on tolerance for risk.
 KEY FACTORS: Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; Stimulus Europe/China a catalyst !!
 CONCLUSION: Suddenly, odds of a December bump up in interest rates has increased dramatically. Over the years, the market has sold off when it appeared that an increase was imminent. It did not do so after the announcement Friday, but did on Monday as the Street began projecting the timing of subsequent rate increases in 2016 – 2017.
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of economic data
For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.
*Stock Trader’s Almanac
…………………………………………………………
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

Only place to Invest Safely ?

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 17,812
S&P 500: 2,089
Nasdaq Comp:5,102
Russell 2000: 1,188
Wednesday: Nov. 25, 2015 10:59 a.m.
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Turkey’s downing of a Russian fighter jet yesterday failed to deter buyers who obviously assumed the incident was not enough to start a war.
Reports on the U.S. economy have been favorable enough to keep the Fed on track for an increase in interest rates in December. Apparently, the Street has accepted that as fact and sees U.S. stocks and bonds as the only place to invest safely.
This has been a rough year for money managers, so expect a scramble to put points on the board or at least position portfolios for better results next year.
Based on 62 years of data, the Almanac suggests that traders be long this week but exit Friday, since the Monday after Thanksgiving tends to be a downer. Obviously there have been exceptions over the years and this logic is not suitable for all portfolios. I mention it here for those who plan to sell but stand to benefit from selling Friday rather than Monday.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:17,786; S&P 500:2,086; Nasdaq Comp.:5,090
RESISTANCE “today”: DJIA:17,876; S&P 500:2,096;Nasdaq Comp.:5,109
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
As of November 19, 2015, a reasonable risk is 17,580 a more extreme risk is 17,436. Near-term upside potential is 17,967
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but “at risk” of a correction, especially Fed-based
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk increases with higher market, but light on the Street is GREEN in spite of negatives.
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45% depends on tolerance for risk.
 KEY FACTORS: Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; Stimulus Europe/China a catalyst !!
 CONCLUSION: Suddenly, odds of a December bump up in interest rates has increased dramatically. Over the years, the market has sold off when it appeared that an increase was imminent. It did not do so after the announcement Friday, but did on Monday as the Street began projecting the timing of subsequent rate increases in 2016 – 2017.
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of economic data
For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.
*Stock Trader’s Almanac
…………………………………………………………
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

Crisis Breeds Uncertainty

Investor’s first read – Daily edge before the open
DJIA: 17,792
S&P 500: 2,086
Nasdaq Comp:5,102
Russell 2000: 1,180
Tuesday: Nov. 24, 2015 10:59 a.m.
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Lost my power and Internet connection.
All bets are off with the downed Russian aircraft which reportedly violated Turkish airspace.
This is an unfolding story, with no quick solution. The uncertainty here can have an impact on the market short-to-intermediate-term.
The market will run both ways as it seeks a level that attempts to discount the uncertainty of this event and related events (Europe, ISIS, Russia, NATO, the Fed).
The Market has not plunged enough to qualify it as one of those “buy the crisis” opportunities. I don’t see serious uncertainty or fear – YET. Russia has already had a plane shot down, but that was reportedly by ISIS. This is different.
FYI: Seasonality – Thanksgiving
I just got my 2016 copy of the Stock Trader’s Almanac in time for some Thanksgiving probability. Based on 62 years of data, the Almanac suggests that traders be long this week but exit Friday, since the Monday after Thanksgiving tends to be a downer. Obviously there have been exceptions over the years and this logic is not suitable for all portfolios. I mention it here for those who plan to sell but stand to benefit from selling Friday rather than Monday.
As I said above, all bets are off.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:17,607; S&P 500:2,061; Nasdaq Comp.:5,018
RESISTANCE “today”: DJIA:17,751; S&P 500:2,081;Nasdaq Comp.:5,076
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of the 30 DJIA Companies:
On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
As of November 19, 2015, a reasonable risk is 17,580 a more extreme risk is 17,436. Near-term upside potential is 17,967
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but “at risk” of a correction, especially Fed-based
 OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk increases with higher market, but light on the Street is GREEN in spite of negatives.
 CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45% depends on tolerance for risk.
 KEY FACTORS: Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; Stimulus Europe/China a catalyst !!
 CONCLUSION: Suddenly, odds of a December bump up in interest rates has increased dramatically. Over the years, the market has sold off when it appeared that an increase was imminent. It did not do so after the announcement Friday, but did on Monday as the Street began projecting the timing of subsequent rate increases in 2016 – 2017.
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Note: Source of economic data
For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.
*Stock Trader’s Almanac
…………………………………………………………
George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer. Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George Brooks is registered as an investment advisor. Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

Bulls Edge Ahead

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA:  17,752
S&P 500: 2,081
Nasdaq  Comp:5,073
Russell 2000: 1,166

Friday:  Nov. 20, 2015   9:13 a.m.

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     Strange market. In this business a person can be wrong when the market goes up or goes down but being wrong if the market does nothing can take some doing.

     So it was with my “Key Day” post yesterday, where I wrote that we should know who wins (tug-of-war) by 10:30 – bulls, or bears. The market did nothing.

     Realistically, a flat trading day after a sharp jump on Wednesday in face of  assurances by the Fed  that it believed the economy could handle an increase in rates in December, is a positive.

     That surge ran counter to the Street’s usual reaction to a potential rate increase, where the Street sold on news of an increase and bought on news of  “no action.”

      It looks like the Street needed a day to digest the FOMC report and commentary by Fed officials.    

      What’s more, the Wednesday surge improved the “technical” picture, setting the stage for more upside with the possibility of attacking all-time highs – DJIA18,351, S&P 500: 2,134, Nasdaq Comp.: 5,231).      

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:17,639; S&P 500: 2,068; Nasdaq Comp.:5,044

RESISTANCE “today”: DJIA:17,886; S&P 500:2,097;Nasdaq Comp.:5,111

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.     

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  November 19, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 17,580 a more extreme risk is 17,436. Near-term upside potential is 17,967
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but “at risk” of  a correction, especially Fed-based
  • OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk increases with higher market, but light on the Street is GREEN in spite of negatives.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45% depends on tolerance for risk.
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; Stimulus Europe/China a catalyst !!
  • CONCLUSION: Suddenly, odds of a December bump up in interest rates has increased dramatically. Over the years, the market has sold off when it appeared that an increase was imminent.  It did not do so after the announcement Friday, but did on Monday as the Street began projecting the timing of subsequent rate increases in 2016 – 2017.
    //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

…………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Key Day

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA:  17,737
S&P 500: 2,083
Nasdaq  Comp:5,075
Russell 2000: 1,171

Thursday:  Nov. 19, 2015   9:13 a.m.

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     Once again the Fed came to the rescue of a sliding market, with bad news/good news scenario – “this won’t hurt – just a pinch.”

      The Fed is still on target for a December 16, announcement of the first increase in federal funds since its zero-based rate policy seven years ago.

      As expected here, the release of FOMC meeting minutes at 2:00 yesterday was preceded with reassuring words from Fed’s Loretta Mester and William Dudley designed to sugarcoat action in December.

      Beyond December will depend on unfolding economic events.  For the timing of subsequent rate increases the FOMC employs what it calls a “dot-plot” method drawn on  quarterly interest rate projections from selected officials, which currently is running at a one percentage point annual increase reaching 3.4 percent by 2018.

      Wording in the FOMC minutes reflected the usual hedging like “if things continue to be the way they seem now or improve.”

       So, why did the market surge after the Fed held its ground on the strong possibility of a December rate increase ?

       Relief ?  Surrender ?  Assurance economy here and abroad are stable ?

       I don’t know. I think we must let the market tell us how the Street  sees it.

       Yes, it would be nice to have the first rate increase behind us and get a feel for how the Street values it.  But there will be more to follow any one of which could adversely impact the economy.

       The bottom line here is UNCERTAINTY.

TODAY

      Yesterday’s surge triggered some positive technical signals, opening the door for another jump in prices.

       Pre-market trading does not suggest a big open, raising the possibility, yesterday’s strength was a head fake, that second thoughts on the Street may be to raise cash in face of a December rate increase.

       We should know who wins this one – bulls or bears by 10:30 today.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:17,668; S&P 500: 2,075; Nasdaq Comp.:5,055

RESISTANCE “today”: DJIA:17,856; S&P 500:2,096;Nasdaq Comp.:5,109

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.     

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  November 13, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 17,117 a more extreme risk is 16,856. Near-term upside potential is 17,630
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but “at risk” of  a correction, especially Fed-based
  • OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk increases with higher market, but light on the Street is GREEN in spite of negatives.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45% depends on tolerance for risk.
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; Stimulus Europe/China a catalyst !!
  • CONCLUSION: Suddenly, odds of a December bump up in interest rates has increased dramatically. Over the years, the market has sold off when it appeared that an increase was imminent.  It did not do so after the announcement Friday, but did on Monday as the Street began projecting the timing of subsequent rate increases in 2016 – 2017.
    //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

…………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Street Just Doesn’t Know What to Do

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA:  17,489
S&P 500: 2,050
Nasdaq  Comp:4,986
Russell 2000: 1,153

Wednesday:  Nov. 18, 2015   9:13 a.m.

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      The minutes from the FOMC meeting will be released at 2:00 today and will be parsed for any clue regarding a December bump in interest rates.

      Currently, the Street expects a rate increase, so any indication to the contrary will spike stock prices.

       I have long believed the first bump up in interest rates would be followed by a sharp but brief sell off, which would be followed by an even sharper rebound.

       That’s what I would expect if  it were people making decisions, not computers.

The surge in stock prices in October was driven by the suggestion that a rate increase would  come in 2016, not December. That changed last week when the perception changed to  a December increase, and the market gave back all of its October gain.

       This is insanity !  Actually, it’s scary.

       What are stocks worth without the Fed factor ?  We don’t know, because it’s all about the Fed, has been for years.

TODAY:

       Expect gains in early trading, as the Street awaits the FOMC minutes at 2:00 today. The Feds William Dudley spoke at 7:30 this morning, but there has been no feedback.

       Economic news was mixed today as MBA mortgage apps in the Nov. 13 week soared 12%, but Housing Starts for Oct. dropped sharply. The apps have it, since they are more recent. 

       The yo-yo effect will continue. A drop below DJIA 17,200 (S&P 500: 2,020) would be short-term bearish.  A rise above DJIA 17, 810 (S&P 500: 2,090) short-term bullish.

 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

SUPPORT “today”: DJIA: 17,426; S&P 500:2,038; Nasdaq Comp.:4,968

RESISTANCE “today”: DJIA:17,561; S&P 500:2,061;Nasdaq Comp.:5,006

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.     

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  November 13, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 17,117 a more extreme risk is 16,856. Near-term upside potential is 17,630
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but “at risk” of  a correction, especially Fed-based
  • OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk increases with higher market, but light on the Street is GREEN in spite of negatives.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45% depends on tolerance for risk.
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; Stimulus Europe/China a catalyst !!
  • CONCLUSION: Suddenly, odds of a December bump up in interest rates has increased dramatically. Over the years, the market has sold off when it appeared that an increase was imminent.  It did not do so after the announcement Friday, but did on Monday as the Street began projecting the timing of subsequent rate increases in 2016 – 2017.
    //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

…………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bulls Hoping For a Boost From The Fed

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,483
S&P 500: 2,053
Nasdaq  Comp:4,984
Russell 2000: 1,156

Tuesday:  Nov. 17, 2015   9:03 a.m.

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      Yesterday’s rebound was primarily technical and can be expected to run into resistance in coming days as stock prices approach the level from which they plunged three days ago.

      From there the market needs a boost from the Fed, probably from comments that would raise doubts about a December rate increase.  The Fed’s William Dudley speaks Wednesday at 7:30 a.m., Dennis Lockhart on Thursday at 12:30  p.m., and James Bullard Friday at 9:00.  All three have indicated a preference for a rate increase.  It would be seen as bullish if they back off of that position, or hedge referring to recent economic reports that suggest a weakening in the economy. If they support the current belief that a December bump in rates is likely, it would be seen as bearish.

TODAY:

      I have read some impressive projections for corporate earnings  looking out to 2016 and 2017, but also concerns for top line growth. Without the latter, the bottom line will have trouble, now that so much “engineering” has been expended.

      With so much emphasis on the timing of a Fed increase in interest rates, it is hard to get a read on what value the Street is placing on earnings, valuations, the economy here and abroad, and international hotspots.

       There is a risk of another leg down and an ugly one at that, but that will have to be triggered by technical factors, buyers heading for the sidelines and a sudden imbalance in selling.

       The August/Sept crunch and recovery can provide enough support for another range-bound market with the DJIA trading between 17,200 and 18,000 (S&P 500: 2,020 and 2,115).      

 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

SUPPORT “today”: DJIA: 17,433; S&P 500:2,047 ; Nasdaq Comp.:4,971

RESISTANCE “today”: DJIA:17,587 ; S&P 500:2,065 ;Nasdaq Comp.:5,278

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.     

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  November 13, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 17,117 a more extreme risk is 16,856. Near-term upside potential is 17,630
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but “at risk” of  a correction, especially Fed-based
  • OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk increases with higher market, but light on the Street is GREEN in spite of negatives.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45% depends on tolerance for risk.
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; Stimulus Europe/China a catalyst !!
  • CONCLUSION: Suddenly, odds of a December bump up in interest rates has increased dramatically. Over the years, the market has sold off when it appeared that an increase was imminent.  It did not do so after the announcement Friday, but did on Monday as the Street began projecting the timing of subsequent rate increases in 2016 – 2017.
    //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

…………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

One-Day Reversal – But Short-Lived

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA:  17,245
S&P 500: 2,023
Nasdaq  Comp:4,927
Russell 2000: 1,146

Monday:  Nov. 16, 2015   9:03 a.m.

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     Last week’s sharp plunge in the market raises odds that one or more Fed officials will attempt to stabilize it this week.  Three of the five Fed officials scheduled to speak this week are known to favor an increase in rates: William Dudley (Wednesday 7:30 a.m.), Dennis Lockhart (Thursday 12:30 p.m.) and James Bullard (Friday (9:00 a.m.).

     Any softening in their position could be taken as bullish, tempering the current perception that a rate in the federal funds will be announced December 16.

     Over the last eight days, the market has given back all of the surge that followed an October 14th Wall Street Journal article implying a rate increase won’t occur until sometime in 2016.

     For years, the  Street has been overly obsessed with a decision by the Fed to raise interest rates after it initiated its zero-based interest rate policy in 2008 to head off a global meltdown in all financial markets.

     That was fine except the Fed had no exit strategy leading to a market that is solely focused on the Fed, little else.

     This is potentially very dangerous, since the Street is paying little attention to other yardstick for valuing the Market.

      What are stocks worth if the only consideration is the timing of a Fed decision on a tiny increase in its benchmark rate ?

      This has become a phony market

      There is the risk here of a sudden 15% – 25% plunge if the Streets’ computers panic.

       I have never been a doomster, but have experienced every bear market since 1962. I know what can happen if leverage combines with confusion.

      The October surge ran into resistance in early November – that was expected. The fall off over the last eight days of this magnitude is abnormal.

      A host of economic indicators are scheduled this week (see mam.econoday.com), but comments by the Fed officials will be key.

TODAY:

      Bulls should find lower prices here attractive, but they will have to do some heavy buying to stop this slide in prices. We have seen plunges like this many times before only to see a reversal to the upside just when  it looked like a huge sell off was imminent.

      There is a good enough chance that won’t happen this time.

     

      

 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:17,066; S&P 500:2,003; Nasdaq Comp.:4,865

RESISTANCE “today”: DJIA:17,362; S&P 500:2,033;Nasdaq Comp.:4,961

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.     

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  November 13, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 17,117 a more extreme risk is 16,856. Near-term upside potential is 17,630
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but “at risk” of  a correction, especially Fed-based
  • OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk increases with higher market, but light on the Street is GREEN in spite of negatives.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45% depends on tolerance for risk.
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; Stimulus Europe/China a catalyst !!
  • CONCLUSION: Suddenly, odds of a December bump up in interest rates has increased dramatically. Over the years, the market has sold off when it appeared that an increase was imminent.  It did not do so after the announcement Friday, but did on Monday as the Street began projecting the timing of subsequent rate increases in 2016 – 2017.
    //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

…………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

This Could Get Ugly

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA:  17,448
S&P 500: 2,045
Nasdaq  Comp:5,005
Russell 2000: 1,154

Friday:  Nov. 13, 2015   6:16 a.m.

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////      

     It took five days for the market to  react to the November 6, October jobs report, which now increases the odds that the Fed will announce an increase in its federal funds rate on December 16. The Fed has held tough on its zero-based rate since 2008.

      The market had surged on October 14th after a Wall Street Journal  article implied a Fed rise in rates would not happen this year.

      The big question now is how much will the market have to decline to discount a bump in rates and subsequent bumps ?

      And what if  economic indicators between now and the FOMC meeting December 15 – 16 indicate the better-than-expected jobs report was a fluke ?

      Several days ago, I referred to this market as a phony market, since its direction is solely based on whether and when the Fed will raise rates and not on other key factors like earnings, international tensions, Congressional dysfunction, global economics. 

      This could get ugly.

 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:17,317; S&P 500:2,041; Nasdaq Comp.:4,927

RESISTANCE “today”: DJIA:17,609; S&P 500:2,066;Nasdaq Comp.:5,058

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.     

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  November 7, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 17,731 a more extreme risk is 17,590. Near-term upside potential is 18,237.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but “at risk” of  a correction, especially Fed-based
  • OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk increases with higher market, but light on the Street is GREEN in spite of negatives.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45% depends on tolerance for risk.
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; Stimulus Europe/China a catalyst !!
  • CONCLUSION: Suddenly, odds of a December bump up in interest rates has increased dramatically. Over the years, the market has sold off when it appeared that an increase was imminent.  It did not do so after the announcement Friday, but did on Monday as the Street began projecting the timing of subsequent rate increases in 2016 – 2017.
    //////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

…………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk