A “Single-Issue” Stock Market – The Fed

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA:  17,755
S&P 500: 2,089
Nasdaq  Comp:5,074
Russell 2000: 1,165

Friday:  Oct. 30, 2015   9:04 a.m.

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 Expect the market to keep probing into increased overhead supply, investors selling now that prices have returned to levels from which they plunged in August, as well as profit takers who bought in after the August 24 flash crash.

      Fed policy on interest rates is off the table for now. With no FOMC meeting in November, the Street won’t be worrying about a bump in rates until December.

      That paves the way for the Street to worry about the prospect for the economy and earnings going forward.

      Bottom line: this is a “single-issue” stock market and the driver is Fed policy on interest rates. It has been for many years.

      At some point that will become a problem, since the Street has not a do-or-die mentality about survival after any increase in interest rates, even a tiny one. As you would suspect, once the first rate increase is implemented, the Street will worry about the next increase and so on.  That’s the kind of stuff that  triggers, and sustains a bear market.

       For some time, I felt the Street could shake off a bump in rates. After all, economies and stock markets in the past were able to co-exist with higher rates, at least up to a point.

      But the Fed had stretched  its zero-based policy out for so long as to condition the Street to believe this bull market couldn’t continue without it. The market notches higher every time the Street’s fears are relieved by assurance a rate increase is not imminent.

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SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:17,706; S&P 500:2,083; Nasdaq Comp.:5,060

RESISTANCE “today”: DJIA: 17,884; S&P 500:2,104; Nasdaq Comp.:5,110

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.     

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  October 14, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 17,510 a more extreme risk is 17,430. Near-term upside potential is 18,045.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but “at risk” of  a correction, especially Fed-based
  • OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk increases with higher market, but light on the Street is GREEN in spite of negatives.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45% depends on tolerance for risk.
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; Stimulus Europe/China a catalyst !!
  • CONCLUSION:  Encouraged by the prospect the Fed won’t raise interest rates this year due to softness in the economy, the stock market has exploded from a consolidation area established after the August 24 “flash crash” and has penetrated deep into a resistance area developed when the market broke down  in August.

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Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

Will Street Cheer GDP “Miss” ?

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA:  17,779
S&P 500: 2,090
Nasdaq  Comp:5,095
Russell 2000: 1,178

Thursday:  Oct. 29, 2015   8:44 a.m.

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      The message from the FOMC meeting at 2 o’clock yesterday was “moderate growth and it’s considering a December hike in interest rates. It did omit concern for “global risks,” which reportedly was the catalyst for a surge in stock prices and interest rates.

      The Street was delighted that the  Fed didn’t bump rates, though no one expected it to, and without a scheduled  Fed meeting in November it gets two months angst-free.

      The DJIA, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Comp. are all beginning to challenge this year’s highs.  The smaller company Russell 2000 has a lot of catching up to do.

      Once again the Street is getting its “Buy” signal from the Fed’s decision to delay an interest rate increase.  This “signal” is becoming so automatic, one has to wonder how the Street will react when the Fed does bump rates up.

       Without a “buy” signal from the Fed, the Street’s computers may signal “sell,” and hold that position long enough for a lot of damage to be done.

      No sweat for now. Unless the Fed calls a special meeting in November, a bump cannot occur until December 16.

       For the time being, I am sticking with the DJIA’s upside target set below in “My Technical Analysis of 30 DJIA Companies  at 18,045.

       Yesterday four Dow stocks accounted for half of the 198-point gain, though 27 of the 30 were up.

       The first Q3 annualized growth estimate for GDP came at 8:30 today and was 1.5%, compared with 3.8% in Q2.  The Q3 number will be revised several times going forward, but this number fell short of projections.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

SUPPORT “today”: DJIA:17,663; S&P 500:2,076; Nasdaq Comp.:5,061

RESISTANCE “today”: DJIA: 17,845; S&P 500:2,098 ; Nasdaq Comp.:5,114

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.     

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  October 14, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 17,510 a more extreme risk is 17,430. Near-term upside potential is 18,045.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but “at risk” of  a correction, especially Fed-based
  • OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk increases with higher market, but light on the Street is GREEN in spite of negatives.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45% depends on tolerance for risk.
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; Stimulus Europe/China a catalyst !!
  • CONCLUSION:  Encouraged by the prospect the Fed won’t raise interest rates this year due to softness in the economy, the stock market has exploded from a consolidation area established after the August 24 “flash crash” and has penetrated deep into a resistance area developed when the market broke down  in August.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

FOMC Report To Be Studied for Clues

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA:  17,581
S&P 500: 2,065
Nasdaq  Comp:5,030
Russell 2000: 1,145

Wednesday:  Oct. 28, 2015   9:11 a.m.

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       While little new is expected at 2 o’clock this afternoon when the minutes of the FOMC are released, the Street will parse every word for a clue as to when the Fed will bump interest rates up for the first time since 2008.

       News on the economic front was mixed yesterday with a slight downward bias.

For the day, the Fed’s minutes from its two-day meeting this week will be the focus.

       Q3 earnings will continue to flow, though the direction of stocks will continue to depend on the Street’s perception of when the Fed will bump rates.

       Without a pickup in the economy, odds favor some time next year. With no Fed press conference scheduled today, a bump in rates is out of the question.  If one is suddenly scheduled  today, expect rates to be raised today. 

       No meeting of the FOMC is scheduled for November.

SUPPORT today: DJIA:17,416; S&P 500:2,046; Nasdaq Comp.:4,983

RESISTANCE today: DJIA: 17,635; S&P 500: 2,071; Nasdaq Comp.:5,045

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.     

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  October 14, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 17,510 a more extreme risk is 17,430. Near-term upside potential is 18,045.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but “at risk” of  a correction, especially Fed-based
  • OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk increases with higher market, but light on the Street is GREEN in spite of negatives.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; Stimulus Europe/China a catalyst !!
  • CONCLUSION:  Encouraged by the prospect the Fed won’t raise interest rates this year due to softness in the economy, the stock market has exploded from a consolidation area established after the August 24 “flash crash” and has penetrated deep into a resistance area developed when the market broke down  in August.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

No Where Else to Invest ???

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA:  17,623
S&P 500: 2,071
Nasdaq  Comp:5,034
Russell 2000: 1,159

Tuesday:  Oct. 27, 2015   9:11 a.m.

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Understandably, the market paused yesterday with minutes from the FOMC meeting due for release at 2:00 p.m. Wednesday and a host of economic reports this week which could influence the Fed to raise interest rates in December or sometime in 2016.

      Durable Goods were reported  today and were down more than expected, S&P Case-Shiller was reported at 9:00.  PMI Services (9:45); Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Mfg., and State Street Investor Confidence at 10:00).

      With Europe trending toward more QE and China dropping its one-year benchmark rate for the 6th time in a year, it doesn’t seem likely the U.S. Fed can justify a rate rise anytime soon.

       There is a good chance the Street concludes that common stocks offer the only chance for an investor to make a return, either through dividends, or appreciation, or both.

        So what, they conclude, if Q3 or Q4 earnings are down, even if the 2016 earnings gain is revised downward. So what, if global economies, they conclude, are soft, as long as interest rates here and abroad remain at zero, or negative, the Street will buy stocks.

       Actually, this has been the Street’s mentality for years, why change now ?

       “Single issue” decision making is self-serving and in this case could power the market higher well beyond anyone’s wildest dreams, as it did in the dot-com bubble in 2001 with the S&P at 46 times earnings, Nasdaq many times higher.

       So yes, the market CAN run a lot higher, as the speculative fever, train leaving the station angst, sets everyone up for the slaughter.

       It becomes the greater fool’s game, where you buy a stock at exorbitant levels hoping a greater fool buys your stock at an even higher price.

       One strategy is to walk away.  Won’t happen.  Human nature (greed, peer pressure) gets in the way.

        Another strategy is “all-in” where an investor eventually gives all his gains back in the crash.

       Finally, one can maintain a healthy cash reserve as a cushion against the ultimate bubble burst. While this investor forfeits some appreciation, he is still making money and is more aware of risk and more likely to bail before the crash does irreparable damage.
……………………………………………………………………………

SUPPORT today: DJIA:17,506 ; S&P 500:2,057 ; Nasdaq Comp.:4,996

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.     

NOTE:  There is no FOMC meeting scheduled for November, and no press conference scheduled for this month. If a press conference is suddenly scheduled this week, it will be a tip off to an announcement of a rate increase, likewise  for a meeting/press conference is scheduled for November.     >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  October 14, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 17,510 a more extreme risk is 17,430. Near-term upside potential is 18,045.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but “at risk” of  a correction, especially Fed based
  • OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk increases with higher market, but light on the Street is GREEN in spite of negatives.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; Stimulus Europe/China a catalyst !!
  • CONCLUSION:  Encouraged by the prospect the Fed won’t raise interest rates this year due to softness in the economy, the stock market has exploded from a consolidation area established after the August 24 “flash crash” and has penetrated deep into a resistance area developed when the market broke down  in August.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

PANIC ?

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA:  17,646
S&P 500: 2,075
Nasdaq  Comp:5,031
Russell 2000: 1,166

Monday:  Oct. 26, 2015   9:11 a.m.

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PANIC ! More confirmation that the only thing the Street’s computers value is assurance that interest rates will remain low per the Fed’s zero-base policy, which has been intact since 2008, when it was designed to counter a total meltdown.

     Add to this, China’s continued efforts to stimulate its economy with yet another decrease in its one-year lending rate, and ECB’s Mario Draghi’s comments that the bank  may increase QE in December, and investors are rushing to buy stocks where if there isn’t some yield, there may be appreciation.

     It’s as if zero-based interest rates, perhaps “negative” rates (you pay them to hold your money), are here to stay, and stocks are your only hope for a return, even if they become seriously over-priced .

     Panics work both ways. We saw it on the downside in August, now we see it on the upside.  

     The FOMC meets this week with a report at 2:00 p.m. Wednesday (no press conference), but a bump in interest rates is not expected, though the Street will parse every word the committee says.

     This is a big week for reports on the economy with New Home Sales (10:00a.m.) and the Dallas Fed Mfg. Ix (10:30)  today. (Go to mam.econoday.com for the complete schedule and details for the week).

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SUPPORT today: DJIA: 17,556; S&P 500: 2,065; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,003

RESISTANCE today: DJIA: 17,735 S&P 500:2,087; Nasdaq Comp.:5,056

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.     

NOTE:  There is no FOMC meeting scheduled for November, and no press conference scheduled for this month. If a press conference is suddenly scheduled this week, it will be a tip off to an announcement of a rate increase, likewise  for a meeting/press conference is scheduled for November.     >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  October 14, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 17,510 a more extreme risk is 17,430. Near-term upside potential is 18,045.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but “at risk” of  a correction, especially Fed based
  • OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Risk increases with higher market, but light on the Street is GREEN in spite of negatives.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; Stimulus Europe/China a catalyst !!
  • CONCLUSION:  Encouraged by the prospect the Fed won’t raise interest rates this year due to softness in the economy, the stock market has exploded from a consolidation area established after the August 24 “flash crash” and has penetrated deep into a resistance area developed when the market broke down  in August.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Global Attempts to Stimulate Economies

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA:  17,489
S&P 500: 2,052
Nasdaq  Comp:4,920
Russell 2000: 1,154

Friday:  Oct. 23, 2015   9:01 a.m.

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      Yesterday’s surge stock prices  is attributed to comments by European Central Bank’s Mario Draghi that the bank’s 1 trillion euro bond buying program policy would be examined in December, suggesting its quantitative easing (QE) program would be increased or extended beyond its September 2016 deadline.

      Today’s pre-market strength is partly due to the fact the People’s Bank of China cut its benchmark interest rate  by 25 basis points to 4.35%. It was its sixth cut in a year and is designed to spark a rebound in China’s sluggish economy.

      With respect to Europe, this suggests is that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates in December at a time the ECB is upping QE in an effort to boost member economies.

       Looks like every country  is pursuing efforts to revive struggling economies with either rates that are next to zero or even negative interest rates. Yields below zero  mean investors holding bonds until maturity will receive less than they paid for them, a negative return in exchange for safety. Does this make sense ?

       Q3 earnings are mixed, but concerns are rising about revenues. Corporations have exhausted tricks to engineer  better bottom line growth and are now challenged to sustain or improve top line growth. The DJIA and S&P 500 attacked a formidable area of resistance yesterday, the

DJIA all but reaching the level in August where the average began its four

day, 2,000 point plunge.   The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. still have a way to go

before recouping the August loss.

       The markets will open sharply higher today and may even spike in the first hour

of trading, so market orders to buy may be untimely.

……………………………………………………………………………

RESISTANCE today: DJIA: 17,596 S&P 500:2,066; Nasdaq Comp.:4,951

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.     

NOTE:  There is no FOMC meeting scheduled for November, and no press conference scheduled for October. If a press conference is suddenly scheduled for October, it will be a tip off to an announcement of a rate increase, likewise  for a meeting/press conference is scheduled for November.     >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  October 14, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 16,793 a more extreme risk is 16,527. Near-term upside potential is 17,355.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but “at risk” of  a correction, especially Fed based
  • OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Encouraged by the prospect the Fed won’t raise interest rates this year due to softness in the economy, the stock market has rebounded from a support level established after the August 24 “flash crash.” It is now beginning to probe into an area from which it broke down in August where the upside should be more challenging.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Today’s Rally Must Hold

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA:  17,168
S&P 500: 2,018
Nasdaq  Comp:4,840
Russell 2000: 1,144

Thursday:  Oct. 22, 2015   9:01 a.m.

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      What we had  a “one-day reversal” yesterday where the market averages gave back all of the gain for the day and posted a loss, as well.

      This is a minor negative pattern, suggesting the bulls were reluctant to reach for stocks in face of increasing resistance starting at (DJIA (17,315); S&P 500 (2,040); Nasdaq Comp.(4,915).

      Stock-index futures indicate a big jump at the open. Unless this rally fails, the bulls are ready to attack overhead supply again.

      Since early 2015, stocks traded within a wide range before breaking down in August ending with the flash crash on August 24 with the DJIA down 2,000 points in four days.  Since then, it has worked its way back up, recouping two-thirds of its loss.

      The risk of another leg down  still can happen, but odds don’t favor it, since the bulls are buying on dips. 

      The news-front sports plenty of negatives, some serious enough to tank the market, but the Street cares only about the Feds timing of the first bump up in interest rates. It went to a zero-0.25% rate on federal funds in December 2008.

      I scanned the charts of the 30 Dow stocks this morning and two-thirds were positive (uptrends, consolidations), 4 negative, and 4 neutral. Corrections to the positive patterns can result in a pullback, but turning negative would take  a major piece of bad news.

.……………………………………………………………………………

RESISTANCE today: DJIA: 17,347; S&P 500:2,048; Nasdaq Comp.:4,924

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.     

NOTE:  There is no FOMC meeting scheduled for November, and no press conference scheduled for October. If a press conference is suddenly scheduled for October, it will be a tip off to an announcement of a rate increase, likewise  for a meeting/press conference is scheduled for November.     >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  October 14, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 16,793 a more extreme risk is 16,527. Near-term upside potential is 17,355.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but “at risk” of  a correction, especially Fed based
  • OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Encouraged by the prospect the Fed won’t raise interest rates this year due to softness in the economy, the stock market has rebounded from a support level established after the August 24 “flash crash.” It is now beginning to probe into an area from which it broke down in August where the upside should be more challenging.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bulls Betting 2016 Earnings To Rebound

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA:  17,217
S&P 500: 2,030
Nasdaq  Comp:4,880
Russell 2000: 1,163

Wednesday:  Oct. 21, 2015   9:01 a.m.

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

         Looks like the market is tiptoeing through the Q3 earnings report period, as if it were a minefield.

        While  An $8.58 drop in IBM yesterday cost the DJIA 57 points, jumps of $3.57, $2.63 and $2.04 in United Tech (UTX), Travelers (TRV) and Apple (AAPL) respectively added 55 points to the average – a wash.

    Q3 S&P 500 earnings will be down year/year, and based on FactSet surveys, Q4 will be also.  The current strength in the stock market suggests the Street knows that and is not concerned, since earnings in 2016 are expected to be to be up.

    That must be one thing powering this market in face of a host of negatives. The other is the expectation that the Fed won’t bump rates up this year. Alas, the market must be climbing a wall of worry, which it has been doing throughout most of this bull market.

    The message here is, don’t worry about the market when there are things to worry about, just worry when there are not !

    I monitor daily charts with periods of 2-years, 6 and 3 months, 10, 5 and 2 days to get a feel for what is happening. A two-year chart shows a huge and extended area of supply  distribution looming over the market that must be plowed through to get to new highs.

      This overhead supply has existed  since the beginning of the year for the DJIA beginning at 17,400 on up to 18,000. For the S&P 500, it starts at  2,050 and ranges up to 2015.

      All this means is there are potential sellers at higher prices, investors who saw the supposedly stable DJIA drop 2,000 points in 4 days and will want to lighten up when prices return to the point from which they plunged. Potential selling could come from traders who hopefully bought this blog’s Aug. 24 pre-market advice.**               It’s beginning to look  like a no-brainer for the bulls, especially since we have entered the six months (Nov.1 to May1) period that has been so good to investors over the years.*

       Only a major rally failure can change “what’s wrong with this picture.”       

.……………………………………………………………………….

SUPPORT today:  DJIA:17,167;  S&P500:2,024 ; Nasdaq Comp.:4,865

RESISTANCE today: DJIA: 17,347; S&P 500:2,048; Nasdaq Comp.:4,924

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.     

NOTE:  There is no FOMC meeting scheduled for November, and no press conference scheduled for October. If a press conference is suddenly scheduled for October, it will be a tip off to an announcement of a rate increase, likewise  for a meeting/press conference is scheduled for November.     >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  October 14, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 16,793 a more extreme risk is 16,527. Near-term upside potential is 17,137. 
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but “at risk” of  a correction, especially Fed based
  • OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Encouraged by the prospect the Fed won’t raise interest rates this year due to softness in the economy, the stock market has rebounded from a support level established after the August 24 “flash crash.” It is now beginning to probe into an area from which it broke down in August where the upside should be more challenging.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac ( New edition should be out – get it !)

** pre-market blog –  “Trader’s BUY,” August 24, with the “flash crash” driving the DJIA down 1,000 points going into the open. …………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

Bulls to Face-Off With News Whipsaw

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA:  17,230
S&P 500: 2,033
Nasdaq  Comp:4,905
Russell 2000: 1,164

Tuesday:  Oct. 20, 2015   9:09 a.m.

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

      Housing led the crunch down in 2007 – 2008, it is  now a leader in a reluctant and aging economic recovery.  The Housing Market Index for October sported strong gains in October. The survey reflects sentiments for the economy and housing industry.  Housing starts for October jumped 6.5%, though Permits slipped 5.0%.

MBA Mortgage Apps/Refi’s come at 7 a.m. Wednesday, and Existing Home Sales and FHFA House Prices on Thursday.

     It will take more than this to convince the Fed to begin raising its benchmark interest rate before year-end.

     But, it would only take the perception that the Fed will act to trigger a sharp, though limited correction.

     As I see it, the magnitude of a correction following  an interest rate bump would depend on what Wall Street’s computers have been programmed to think.

     If they are programmed as rigidly  to sell on an increase as they are to buy, investors are in for a drubbing.

     The economy and stock market should be able to co-exist with slightly higher rates if the trade off is a stronger economy.  If the Street’s computers are not programmed to see it that way then common sense makes no sense at all.

      That said, I would expect a sharp sell off on the announcement that the Fed is increasing rates, followed by a rally. The latter depends on whether the Street’s computers are programmed to think like a rational human being.

       TODAY:

      The market will open mixed today.  As noted yesterday, the key is to watch if the bulls use any weakness to buy.  Without a jolt on the news front, the market should push higher.
.……………………………………………………………………….

SUPPORT today:  DJIA: 17,175 S&P500:2,029; Nasdaq Comp.:4,874

RESISTANCE today: DJIA: 17,347; S&P 500:2,048; Nasdaq Comp.:4,924

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.     

NOTE:  There is no FOMC meeting scheduled for November, and no press conference scheduled for October. If a press conference is suddenly scheduled for October, it will be a tip off to an announcement of a rate increase, likewise  for a meeting/press conference is scheduled for November.     >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  October 14, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 16,793 a more extreme risk is 16,527. Near-term upside potential is 17,137. 
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but “at risk” of  a correction, especially Fed based
  • OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25% – 45%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Encouraged by the prospect the Fed won’t raise interest rates this year due to softness in the economy, the stock market has rebounded from a support level established after the August 24 “flash crash.” It is now beginning to probe into an area from which it broke down in August where the upside should be more challenging.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac ( New edition should be out – get it !)

…………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

Bulls Slight Edge to Be Tested Today

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA:  17,215
S&P 500: 2,033
Nasdaq  Comp:4,886
Russell 2000: 1,162

Monday:  Oct. 19, 2015   9:09 a.m.

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

    Housing will dominate the news this week with the Housing Market index (today 10:00 a.m.), Housing Starts (Tues. 8:30), MBA Apps Wed. 7:00 a.m.) Existing Home Sales (Thur. 10:00 a.m.).  Worth noting, Leading (economic) Indicators will be reported Thur. 10:00 a.m..
    The stock market rebounded last Thursday on speculation in the Wall Street Journal  that the likelihood of the Fed’s raising rates in 2015 is falling as the U.S. economy shows signs of job market weakness amid low inflation.

     So far, Fed Chief Janet Yellen is on record as believing a hike by year-end is possible.  Presently the “no’s” have it. That can change as we know in a heartbeat, so a cash reserve is justified depending on one’s tolerance for risk – 10%, 25%, 45% or higher.

TODAY:

     Last week’s reversal on reshaped the technical pattern to favor the bulls, suggesting the market will need to press higher into overhead supply, an area from which the market plunged sharply in August, before encountering serious resistance.

     A word of caution, if someone with clout (Fed official, publisher, market guru) indicates there is a better than even chance the Fed will raise rates in December, the market is vulnerable again.

     From time to time, the market is news sensitive. While the Fed hogs center stage, other candidates could be  a fiscal crisis in the European Union, a failure bu Congress  to raise the debt ceiling by Nov. 3, a major derivative/ hedge fund failure or a worsening Mid-East crisis.

     The biggest positive is that the next six months is historically the best period for owning stocks.* It beats the May through October six months by a wide margin.

TODAY:

     Last Thursday’s abrupt turn up changed a negative pattern into a positive one. While we have so often seen  the market turn up and down in response to statements by Fed officials, there are movements in the market  unrelated to Fed activity.

    The pre-open futures are trading down but not enough to tip the scales in favor of the bears.

     We need to watch to see how quickly the bulls step in on any pullback. Aggressive buying now indicates a surge across DJIA 17,400 (S&P 500: 2,057).

Failure to step in once again raises the risk of a sharp decline.

.……………………………………………………………………….

SUPPORT today:  DJIA:17,119 ; S&P 500:2,022; Nasdaq Comp.:4,858

RESISTANCE today: DJIA:17,265 ; S&P 500:2,037; Nasdaq Comp.:4,903

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.     

NOTE:  There is no FOMC meeting scheduled for November, and no press conference scheduled for October. If a press conference is suddenly scheduled for October, it will be a tip off to an announcement of a rate increase, likewise  for a meeting/press conference is scheduled for November.     >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  October 14, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 16,793 a more extreme risk is 16,527. Near-term upside potential is 17,137. 
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but “at risk” of  a bear market.
  • OPPORTUNITY: RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 45%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Encouraged by the prospect the Fed won’t raise interest rates this year due to softness in the economy, the stock market has rebounded from a support level established after the August 24 “flash crash.” It is now beginning to probe into an area from which it broke down in August where the upside should be more challenging.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac ( New edition should be out – get it !)

…………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk