Fed Decision Thurs. – Quad Witching Fri. !!!

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA:  16,599
S&P 500:  1,978
Nasdaq  Comp.;4,860
Russell 2000:   1,165

Wednesday:  Sept.c 16,  2015   9:08 a.m.

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

SUMMARY:

   Yesterday’s jump in stock prices was partly due to unwinding of option/ futures positions as well as buyers front running what they think will be a decision tomorrow at 2:00 by the Fed NOT to raise interest rates.

     Today may be more of the same, however it’s just difficult for traders of options and futures to make a decision in advance to the expiration  of contracts Friday when the Fed is only announcing its policy decision the day before.

      What’s worse, Friday is Quadruple Witching occurs four times a year and is the day index futures, index options, stock options and stock futures expire. The expiration of all four only occurs four times a year (Sept.,Dec., Mar., June).

      Quad Witching is normally accompanied by heavy trading activity; the potential exists for extra heavy volume and possibly extreme volatility.

TODAY: 

      With a big jump yesterday, the price charts of the market averages suddenly changed from sagging to upbeat.  Under normal conditions, that would be a green light to buy.  But this is FOMC week along with Quad Witching week, all bets are off.

SUPPORT today: DJIA: 16,765; S&P 500:1,997; Nasdaq Comp.:4,903.

RESISTANCE today: DJIA: 16,466; S&P 500:1,964; Nasdaq Comp.:4,826 .

Obviously, any comment by a Fed official, voting or non-voting, that even hints at a decision would move the market in a big way.  It is a coiled spring with big potential up or down depending on a decision by the Fed.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  September 8, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 15,827; a more extreme risk is 15,713. Near-term upside potential is 16,930.  Note: A drop below DJIA 15,713  would be very bearish.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

NEWS ENVIRONMENT    

        The following news has been  a contributor to recent market weakness, though most of these issues have been with us for weeks/months. 

-Chinese stock markets worst drop since 2007,  currently rebounding

-European stocks on verge of bear market (Germany’s DAX off 20%)

-U.S. stocks recovering from ugly crunch

-Commodities at 16-year low, but oil stabilizing.

-currency meltdown

-No one has a clue when the Fed will bump interest rates, including the Fed. The latest comment was by N.Y. Fed’s Dudley who said an increase in Sept. is “Less compelling”.

-Brent oil and WTI oil falling again

      NOTE: Some of the Street’s pundits are arguing that this market behavior is unreasonable since the U.S. economy is doing well, if not great. Bear in mind, the stock market has historically been an early warning signal for the beginning of a recession, leading by as little as two months and as much as  13 months.

………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but in a correction  into the fall.
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market has rebounded from August’s “flash crash”  and is approaching an area of resistance.
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Having broken major support levels, the market is probing for a level that discounts uncertainties and negatives.
  •  

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Perfect Storm – Fed Decision + Quad Witching

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA:  16,370
S&P 500:  1,953
Nasdaq  Comp.;4,805
Russell 2000:   1,153

Tuesday:  Sept 15,  2015   8:58 a.m.

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

SUMMARY:

      At 2:30, Thursday, we get the answer from the Fed if interest rates will rise slightly from its zero-based policy.  Fed Chief Janet Yellen, holds a press conference at 2:30. Quadruple Witching Friday hits the next day

   Quadruple Witching occurs four times a year and is the day index futures, index options, stock options and stock futures expire.

 A PROBLEM ?

    Could be !  This gives traders little time to unwind their futures and options positions before contracts expire Friday.  In recent years, traders have unwound positions in advance, but how can they this time not knowing what the Fed will do ?

     Based on surveys, the Street does not believe the Fed will raise rates this time around, so traders are likely be leaning in that direction setting up a perfect storm of chaotic trading should the Fed raise rates.

     If no action is taken by the Fed this month, the next meeting that this cannot happen until December 16. There is no meeting scheduled for November and no press conference scheduled for October. An announcement this important would not be released without  a  press conference

       If a press conference is scheduled for October, everyone would know why, likewise if  a November meeting is suddenly scheduled.

     Economic indicators are mixed with employment numbers suggesting a possible rate rise, but manufacturing and inflation data is saying – not now.

TODAY:  Mixed

SUPPORT today: DJIA: 16,322 ; S&P 500:1,948; Nasdaq Comp.:4,792.

RESISTANCE today: DJIA: 16,447; S&P 500:1,964; Nasdaq Comp.:4,826 .

Obviously, any comment by a Fed official, voting or non-voting, that even hints at a decision would move the market in a big way.  It is a coiled spring with big potential up or down depending on a decision by the Fed.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  September 8, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 15,827; a more extreme risk is 15,713. Near-term upside potential is 16,930.  Note: A drop below DJIA 15,713  would be very bearish.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

NEWS ENVIRONMENT    

        The following news has been  a contributor to recent market weakness, though most of these issues have been with us for weeks/months. 

-Chinese stock markets worst drop since 2007,  currently rebounding

-European stocks on verge of bear market (Germany’s DAX off 20%)

-U.S. stocks recovering from ugly crunch

-Commodities at 16-year low, but oil stabilizing.

-currency meltdown

-No one has a clue when the Fed will bump interest rates, including the Fed. The latest comment was by N.Y. Fed’s Dudley who said an increase in Sept. is “Less compelling”.

-Brent oil and WTI oil falling again

      NOTE: Some of the Street’s pundits are arguing that this market behavior is unreasonable since the U.S. economy is doing well, if not great. Bear in mind, the stock market has historically been an early warning signal for the beginning of a recession, leading by as little as two months and as much as  13 months.

………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but in a correction  into the fall.
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market has rebounded from August’s “flash crash”  and is approaching an area of resistance.
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Having broken major support levels, the market is probing for a level that discounts uncertainties and negatives.
  •  

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fed Decision Thursday – Quad Witching Friday !!!

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA:  16,433
S&P 500:  1,961
Nasdaq  Comp.;4,822
Russell 2000:   1,157

Monday:  Sept 14,  2015   8:46 a.m.

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

SUMMARY:

      At 2:30, Thursday, we get the answer from the Fed if interest rates will rise from its zero-based policy.  Fed Chief Janet Yellen, holds a press conference at 2:30.

   Quadruple Witching Friday comes a day after the Fed’s announcement on interest rates, and is the day index futures, index options, stock options and stock futures expire.

    This gives traders little time to respond should the Fed do the unexpected – raise interest rates.  Friday has the potential to be wild regardless what the Fed does.

     Based on surveys, the Street does not believe the Fed will raise rates this time around, so traders are likely be leaning in that direction setting up a perfect storm of chaotic trading should the Fed raise rates.

     If no action is taken by the Fed this month, the next meeting that this can happen is December 16. There is no meeting scheduled for November and no press conference scheduled for October. An announcement this important would not be released without  a  press conference  Should one be scheduled for October, everyone would know why, likewise if  a November meeting is suddenly scheduled.

     Economic indicators are mixed with employment numbers suggesting a possible rate rise, but manufacturing and inflation data is saying – not now.

     TODAY:  Mixed

SUPPORT today: DJIA: 16,356 ; S&P 500:1,953; Nasdaq Comp.:4,801.

RESISTANCE: DJIA: 16,516; S&P 500: 1,971; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,837.

Obviously, any comment by a Fed official, voting or non-voting, that even hints at a decision would move the market in a big way.  It is a coiled spring with big potential up or down depending on a decision by the Fed.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  September 8, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 15,827; a more extreme risk is 15,713. Near-term upside potential is 16,930.  Note: A drop below DJIA 15,713  would be very bearish.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NEWS ENVIRONMENT    

        The following news has been  a contributor to recent market weakness, though most of these issues have been with us for weeks/months. 

-Chinese stock markets worst drop since 2007,  currently rebounding

-European stocks on verge of bear market (Germany’s DAX off 20%)

-U.S. stocks recovering from ugly crunch

-Commodities at 16-year low, but oil stabilizing.

-currency meltdown

-No one has a clue when the Fed will bump interest rates, including the Fed. The latest comment was by N.Y. Fed’s Dudley who said an increase in Sept. is “Less compelling”.

-Brent oil and WTI oil falling again

      NOTE: Some of the Street’s pundits are arguing that this market behavior is unreasonable since the U.S. economy is doing well, if not great. Bear in mind, the stock market has historically been an early warning signal for the beginning of a recession, leading by as little as two months and as much as  13 months.

………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but in a correction  into the fall.
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market has rebounded from August’s “flash crash”  and is approaching an area of resistance.
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Having broken major support levels, the market is probing for a level that discounts uncertainties and negatives.

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bulls Better Step In

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA:  16,330
S&P 500:  1,952
Nasdaq  Comp.;4,796
Russell 2000:   1,153

Friday:  Sept 11,  2015   9:11 a.m.

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

SUMMARY:

      I really don’t think the Street knows what the market should do. That’s the price for snuggling up too close to the Fed, and focusing too closely on whether a company “beats” guidance/projections without regard for what a company’s outlook will be a year from now.

      Will the Fed, or won’t the Fed raise interest rates at its next meeting ?

      This game has been played in overtime for too long. It has gotten so bad, the Street welcomes bad news, since it assures it a rate increase is not imminent.

       The market should drop either in anticipation of  a Fed bump in rates, then rise, or drop after the announcement, but only briefly (minutes/hour) then rise.

TODAY:

       Stock-index futures indicate a soft open, which threatens trigger another leg down.  One-day reversals have been so frequent.  Five of the last six days have reversed the prior day’s trend.

SUPPORT today: DJIA: 16,221 ; S&P 500:1,939 ; Nasdaq Comp.:4,775.

Should we get a reversal of the open today, look for RESISTANCE to start at

DJIA: 16,513; S&P 500: 1,973; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,837

COMMENT:

      This kind of indecision is what you would expect from novice investors.  But then this isn’t about investing is it ?  This is a game of  “gotcha “! – BIG money moving huge positions in a millionth of a second to scalp a fraction of a point.

       Math majors fresh out of school designing algorithms  in lame effort to beat the market.  Why can’t there be a separate arena for these behemoths to joust ?

       That thought is as unreasonable as the idea of algorithms beating the market consistently.  There are just too many variables whose weighting changes too frequently to quantify the next move in the market.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  September 8, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 15,827; a more extreme risk is 15,713. Near-term upside potential is 16,930.  Note: A drop below DJIA 15,713  would be very bearish.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

NEWS ENVIRONMENT    

        The following news has been  a contributor to recent market weakness, though most of these issues have been with us for weeks/months. 

-a flawed trading system allowed another flash crash with the DJIA dropping more than 1,000 points at the open Aug. 24. July business investment is picking up.

-Chinese stock markets worst drop since 2007,  currently rebounding

-European stocks on verge of bear market (Germany’s DAX off 20%)

-U.S. stocks recovering from ugly crunch

-Commodities at 16-year low, but oil stabilizing.

-currency meltdown

-No one has a clue when the Fed will bump interest rates, including the Fed. The latest comment was by N.Y. Fed’s Dudley who said an increase in Sept. is “Less compelling”.

-Brent oil and WTI oil rebounding from lows

      NOTE: Some of the Street’s pundits are arguing that this market behavior is unreasonable since the U.S. economy is doing well, if not great. Bear in mind, the stock market has historically been an early warning signal for the beginning of a recession, leading by as little as two months and as much as  13 months.

………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but in a correction  into the fall.
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market has rebounded from August’s “flash crash”  and is approaching an area of resistance.
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Having broken major support levels, the market is probing for a level that discounts uncertainties and negatives.
  •  

SUMMARY 

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ?   An updated Q2 GDP reported came in at plus  3.7% (ann. rate) up from 2.3% initially reported.   Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.     

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.c

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bulls Need to Get Off Their Duff – Pronto

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA:  16,253
S&P 500:  1,942
Nasdaq  Comp.; 4,756
Russell 2000:   1,148

Thursday:  Sept 10,  2015   7:57 a.m.

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

SUMMARY:

      The Nasdaq Comp. and Russell 2000 briefly broke out above the August rally high, the DJIA and S&P 500 came within a hair of doing so.

       All four hit a wall shortly after the open, then gave back all of the day’s gain and much of  Tuesday’s big gain.   Rally failure !

       The loss was more a matter of buyers backing away than heavy selling, indicating a lack of serious commitment.  This is the “persistence” I have been referring to.  Buyers must be persistent to drive stock prices back up through overhead supply, sellers who either bought in at lower prices, or sellers who were scared by the flash crash and want out.

       There are enough uncertainties out there to temper enthusiasm, so volatility will prevail.

TODAY:

       Confusion reigns. This is what happens when the best computer (the human brain)  defers to a host of  algorithms programmed to “think.”  Too many variables in this business for that with  so many uncertainties.  There are things happening now that couldn’t possibly have been programmed into a computer.

      Suddenly, the burden of proof  has shifted back to the Bulls. Without persistent buying this market is at risk of going south.

RESISTANCE today: DJIA: 16,296; 1,947; Nasdaq Comp.:4,769.

SUPPORT today: DJIA: 16,167; S&P 500: 1,932; Nasdaq Comp.:4,729

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  September 8, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 15,827; a more extreme risk is 15,713. Near-term upside potential is 16,930.  Note: A drop below DJIA 15,713  would be very bearish.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NEWS ENVIRONMENT    

        The following news has been  a contributor to recent market weakness, though most of these issues have been with us for weeks/months. 

-a flawed trading system allowed another flash crash with the DJIA dropping more than 1,000 points at the open Aug. 24. July business investment is picking up.

-Chinese stock markets worst drop since 2007,  currently rebounding

-European stocks on verge of bear market (Germany’s DAX off 20%)

-U.S. stocks recovering from ugly crunch

-Commodities at 16-year low, but oil stabilizing.

-currency meltdown

-No one has a clue when the Fed will bump interest rates, including the Fed. The latest comment was by N.Y. Fed’s Dudley who said an increase in Sept. is “Less compelling”.

-Brent oil and WTI oil rebounding from lows

      NOTE: Some of the Street’s pundits are arguing that this market behavior is unreasonable since the U.S. economy is doing well, if not great. Bear in mind, the stock market has historically been an early warning signal for the beginning of a recession, leading by as little as two months and as much as  13 months.

………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but in a correction  into the fall.
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market has rebounded from August’s “flash crash”  and is approaching an area of resistance.
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Having broken major support levels, the market is probing for a level that discounts uncertainties and negatives.
  •  

SUMMARY 

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ?   An updated Q2 GDP reported came in at plus  3.7% (ann. rate) up from 2.3% initially reported.   Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.     

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.c

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Breakout and Run…or Rally Failure ?

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA:  16,492
S&P 500:  1,969
Nasdaq  Comp. ; 4,811
Russell 2000:   1,161

Wednesday:  Sept 9,  2015   9:09 a.m.

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

TODAY:

      Look for a breakout above the Aug. 28 rally highs ( DJIA 16,669; S&P 500: 1,993; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,836) , which will be taken as a BUY signal in some technical quarters, triggering additional buying.

     Bears will use this buying to sell resulting in a correction during the day. That correction must be studied closely. If buyers are quick to step in aggressively the rally that started Monday will close the market on a strong note with higher prices to come.

      BUT, the Bulls must be persistent in their buying, no room for rally failures.

      The fall to spring period is traditionally the year’s strongest* so this could be the beginning of a major up move.

      What are odds of a test of the Aug. 24 flash crash lows ?

       I’d say one-in-three and fading.

SUMMARY:

      Big hitters returned yesterday to buy aggressively at the open.  Short sellers did likewise, as they realized last week’s weak showing was not continuing into this week.

      Stock-index futures are ahead  prior to today’s  open indicating a strong beginning for the  trading day.

      It would have defied human nature, and common sense, to buy late Friday ahead of a three-day holiday and Tuesday’s “gap” open.

      Suddenly, the train appears to be leaving the station without so much as an “All Aboard.”

      Enter “angst” at its worst.  This could be a move to new highs, one thinks, not giving thought it could be one of many head fakes prior to another leg down in a declining market (bear market rally)

      No one likes to buy at the open, too much risk you’ll get skewered by the high for the day.

      The impact of big money acting on news or in concert is responsible for sudden surges like these.

       The only way I can see to deal with them  is to be ready with a list of stocks you want to own, a limit of what you will pay for them, then to take a partial position. If you plan to buy 500 shares, buy 100 – 200 and wait for the dust to settle. If the stock runs away from you, you at least have a position,  If it drops your loss isn’t as great as it would have been had you bought all 500 shares.  Assuming nothing has changed fundamentally, you can average down on your cost.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  September 8, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 15,827; a more extreme risk is 15,713. Near-term upside potential is 16,930.  Note: A drop below DJIA 15,713  would be very bearish.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NEWS ENVIRONMENT    

        The following news has been  a contributor to recent market weakness, though most of these issues have been with us for weeks/months. 

-a flawed trading system allowed another flash crash with the DJIA dropping more than 1,000 points at the open Aug. 24. July business investment is picking up.

-Chinese stock markets worst drop since 2007,  currently rebounding

-European stocks on verge of bear market (Germany’s DAX off 20%)

-U.S. stocks recovering from ugly crunch

-Commodities at 16-year low, but oil stabilizing.

-currency meltdown

-No one has a clue when the Fed will bump interest rates, including the Fed. The latest comment was by N.Y. Fed’s Dudley who said an increase in Sept. is “Less compelling”.

-Brent oil and WTI oil rebounding from lows

      NOTE: Some of the Street’s pundits are arguing that this market behavior is unreasonable since the U.S. economy is doing well, if not great. Bear in mind, the stock market has historically been an early warning signal for the beginning of a recession, leading by as little as two months and as much as  13 months.

………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but in a correction  into the fall.
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market has rebounded from August’s “flash crash”  and is approaching an area of resistance.
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Having broken major support levels, the market is probing for a level that discounts uncertainties and negatives.
  •  

SUMMARY 

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ?   An updated Q2 GDP reported came in at plus  3.7% (ann. rate) up from 2.3% initially reported.   Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.     

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.c

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Leg Up …. or More Limbo ?

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA:  16,102
S&P 500:  1,921
Nasdaq  Comp. 4,683
Russell 2000:   1.136

Tuesday:  Sept 8,  2015   9:09 a.m.

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

TODAY:

     At the close Friday, all the major market averages looked like they were  on the threshold of  a freefall, pounding stock prices below the Aug. 24 flash crash lows. 

      But, usually the “obvious” doesn’t happen, calling the market’s next move isn’t that easy

     Sure enough, stock index futures indicate a strong open, one triggered by an overnight  rebound  in Chinese markets, emerging markets, and industrial commodities.

     An impressive turning pattern will develop if  the surge starting today carries  beyond DJIA: 16,670; S&P 500: 1,993; Nasdaq Comp.:4,836, one that will be tough for the bears to reverse without dire news.

     Failure to follow through keeps the market in limbo with the potential for a big move either way.

     Any institution with a smidgeon of optimism has to be licking their chops right now with the major market averages off 10% – 12%.

     But the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets next week (16th and 17th) with a possibility of announcing a rise in interest rates.

      A decision to increase rates should only temporarily crunch stock prices before a relief rally. The crunch could only last an hour or two.

      This “will they, or won’t they” nonsense will be good to get behind us, so the Street can focus on fundamentals (earnings, the economy, etc.).

 TODAY:

The key here is persistency.  Are investors persistently buying on dips, or is today’s open a brief reaction to a jump in foreign markets and commodities ?  Odds ever so slightly favor an up-move.

     Again – no room for a rally failure.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  September 4, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 16,000; a more extreme risk is 15,520. Near-term upside potential is 16,482c.  Note: A drop below DJIA 15,714  would be very bearish.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

NEWS ENVIRONMENT    

        The following news has been  a contributor to recent market weakness, though most of these issues have been with us for weeks/months. 

-a flawed trading system allowed another flash crash with the DJIA dropping more than 1,000 points at the open Aug. 24. July business investment is picking up.

-Chinese stock markets worst drop since 2007,  currently rebounding

-European stocks on verge of bear market (Germany’s DAX off 20%)

-U.S. stocks recovering from ugly crunch

-Commodities at 16-year low, but oil stabilizing.

-currency meltdown

-No one has a clue when the Fed will bump interest rates, including the Fed. The latest comment was by N.Y. Fed’s Dudley who said an increase in Sept. is “Less compelling”.

-Brent oil and WTI oil rebounding from lows

      NOTE: Some of the Street’s pundits are arguing that this market behavior is unreasonable since the U.S. economy is doing well, if not great. Bear in mind, the stock market has historically been an early warning signal for the beginning of a recession, leading by as little as two months and as much as  13 months.

………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but in a correction  into the fall.
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market has rebounded from August’s “flash crash”  and is approaching an area of resistance.
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Having broken major support levels, the market is probing for a level that discounts uncertainties and negatives.
  •  

SUMMARY 

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ?   An updated Q2 GDP reported came in at plus  3.7% (ann. rate) up from 2.3% initially reported.   Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.     

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.c

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Market Fears Fed Interest Rate Bump Sept. 16 ?

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA:  16,374
S&P 500:  1,951
Nasdaq  Comp. 4,733
Russell 2000:   1,145

Friday:  Sept 4,  2015   8:55 a.m.

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

TODAY:

      The flash crash type plunge last month slashed 11% (intraday) off the S&P 500 and raised the odds of a much worse correction, possibly a Bear market.

     The market is struggling to rebound from that low with a mix of encouraging and discouraging days in the interim.

      The market averages are at a tipping point  between continued rebound and another leg down.

       The Bulls need a breakout above DJIA: 16,670 (S&P 500: 1,993; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,836 to set the stage for a full recovery; the Bears need a break below DJIA: 15,650 ( S&P 500: 1,905; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,500) to  trigger an ugly sell off.   

      Yesterday’s rally failure did some damage to the case for a breakout and run and will adversely impact today’s open.

       Again, The Bulls must hold the line and advance the ball here to prevent a full-scale sell off.

       If a market that has been discounted this much does not lure buyers  in, it will take much lower prices to do so and most likely a break below the Aug. 24 flash crash lows (DJIA: 15,370;  S&P 500: 1,867; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,292).

       While the Employment Situation report was short of projections, the prior month was revised up, prompting talk of a decision by the Fed to raise interest rates a smidge at its Sept. 16 FOMC meeting.

       The futures slipped after the report.

        I expect the market to sell off in advance and/or when the Fed reports that increase, but rally strongly shortly (maybe  an hour or two)  after that report.

…………………………………………………………………………

SUPPORT today: DJIA: 16,141; S&P 500: 1,927 ;  Nasdaq Comp.:4,666 .

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  Septembe2015,  a reasonable risk is 16,160; a more extreme risk is 15,954. Near-term upside potential is 17,176.  Note: A drop below DJIA 15,714  would be very bearish.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
NEWS ENVIRONMENT    

        The following news has been  a contributor to recent market weakness, though most of these issues have been with us for weeks/months. 

-a flawed trading system allowed another flash crash with the DJIA dropping more than 1,000 points at the open Aug. 24. July business investment is picking up.

-Chinese stock markets worst drop since 2007,  currently rebounding

-European stocks on verge of bear market (Germany’s DAX off 20%)

-U.S. stocks recovering from ugly crunch

-Commodities at 16-year low, but oil stabilizing.

-currency meltdown

-No one has a clue when the Fed will bump interest rates, including the Fed. The latest comment was by N.Y. Fed’s Dudley who said an increase in Sept. is “Less compelling”.

-Brent oil and WTI oil rebounding from lows

      NOTE: Some of the Street’s pundits are arguing that this market behavior is unreasonable since the U.S. economy is doing well, if not great. Bear in mind, the stock market has historically been an early warning signal for the beginning of a recession, leading by as little as two months and as much as  13 months.

………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but in a correction  into the fall.
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market has rebounded from August’s “flash crash”  and is approaching an area of resistance.
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Having broken major support levels, the market is probing for a level that discounts uncertainties and negatives.
  •  

SUMMARY 

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ?   An updated Q2 GDP reported came in at plus  3.7% (ann. rate) up from 2.3% initially reported.   Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.     

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.c

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rally Held, Follow Through Now Needed

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA:  16,351
S&P 500:  1,948
Nasdaq  Comp. 4,749
Russell 2000:   1,146

Thursday:  Sept 3,  2015   8:55 a.m.

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

TODAY:

      Yesterday, I said any rally  in this downtrend “must” hold – be careful of  buying a “gap” open. That guidance was on target with  the market trading sideways after a big jump at the open until the final hour of trading when the market jumped up.

      The risk was a rally failure and the beginning of another leg down.

       Same holds true for today’s market.   The market is attempting to turn back up. A rally failure signals lack of conviction, which can quickly lead to a lower prices.

       The market is down some 10% from its all-time high, the Street must see this as a buying opportunity, and waste no time jumping in.

       If it doesn’t, LOOK OUT !

       Looks like the market is trying to break above last week’s rally highs (DJIA:16,670; 1,993; 4,836.).  That would draw more investors off the sidelines.

       Again, you need to be careful chasing stocks now after August’s ugly “flash crash.” The market will encounter sellers as it climbs out of  the depths of that sell off.  The Bulls will have to buy in-size to chew through it.

SUPPORT today: DJIA:16,296; S&P 500:1,941;  Nasdaq Comp.: 4,726.

RESISTANCE  today:  DJIA: 16,489; S&P 500:1,964 ; Nasdaq Comp.:4,749 . >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  Septembe2015r,  a reasonable risk is 16,160; a more extreme risk is 15,954. Near-term upside potential is 17,176.  Note: A drop below DJIA 15,714  would be very bearish.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

ECONOMIC INDICATORS – Key reports this week

     Based on global uncertainty, it is unlikely the Fed will bump interest rates at its FOMC meeting Sept. 16. Even so, the Street will monitor  the economy in the interim.

     Monday: Chicago PMI, Dallas Mfg Ix.; Tuesday: PMI Mfg.,ISM Mfg., Construction Spend., Wednesday: ADP Employment, Productivity/Costs, Factory Orders; Thursday: Int’l Trade, Jobless Claims, PMI Services; Friday: Employment Situation.

     The latter is the biggie. It is one of the reports the Fed keys on.

NOTE: To track these, go to www. mam.econoday.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

NEWS ENVIRONMENT    

        The following news has been  a contributor to recent market weakness, though most of these issues have been with us for weeks/months. 

-a flawed trading system allowed another flash crash with the DJIA dropping more than 1,000 points at the open Aug. 24. July business investment is picking up.

-Chinese stock markets worst drop since 2007,  currently rebounding

-European stocks on verge of bear market (Germany’s DAX off 20%)

-U.S. stocks recovering from ugly crunch

-Commodities at 16-year low, but oil stabilizing.

-currency meltdown

-No one has a clue when the Fed will bump interest rates, including the Fed. The latest comment was by N.Y. Fed’s Dudley who said an increase in Sept. is “Less compelling”.

-Brent oil and WTI oil rebounding from lows

      NOTE: Some of the Street’s pundits are arguing that this market behavior is unreasonable since the U.S. economy is doing well, if not great. Bear in mind, the stock market has historically been an early warning signal for the beginning of a recession, leading by as little as two months and as much as  13 months.

………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but in a correction  into the fall.
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market has rebounded from August’s “flash crash”  and is approaching an area of resistance.
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Having broken major support levels, the market is probing for a level that discounts uncertainties and negatives.
  •  

SUMMARY 

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ?   An updated Q2 GDP reported came in at plus-3.7% (ann. rate) up from 2.3% initially reported.   Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.     

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.c

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rally in Downtrend “Must” Hold – Careful

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA:  16,058
S&P 500:  1.913
Nasdaq  Comp. 4,636
Russell 2000:   1,128

Wednesday:  Sept 2,  2015   9:12 a.m.

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

TODAY:

      Expect a “gap” open with a lot of stocks opening well off Tuesday’s close. Buying at the open carries the risk you will pay the high for the day. Some of this morning’s strength is short covering.

     A lower than expected ADP Employment report will be credited for the unexpected bounce, since it suggests the more reliable Employment Situation report Friday (8:30) will be soft thus reducing the likelihood the Fed will bump interest rates at its FOMC meeting Sept. 16.

    Worth noting: Last week’s mortgage app/refi report showed a major jump in apps and refi’s, at +4% and +17% respectively.

    The biggest risk today is a rally failure where the market gives back all of its gain and even posts a loss for the day.

     I am sure there was some “capitulation” selling yesterday, sellers fearful of another leg down.  That is definitely possible. Rallies in a downtrend are common and tend to suck in buyers who believe to decline has run its course only to see it plunge further.

      RESISTANCE  today:  DJIA: 16,761; S&P 500:1,937 ; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,697 . >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  August 28,  a reasonable risk is 16,468; a more extreme risk is 16,208. Near-term upside potential is 16,996.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

ECONOMIC INDICATORS – Key reports this week

     Based on global uncertainty, it is unlikely the Fed will bump interest rates at its FOMC meeting Sept. 16. Even so, the Street will monitor  the economy in the interim.

     Monday: Chicago PMI, Dallas Mfg Ix.; Tuesday: PMI Mfg.,ISM Mfg., Construction Spend., Wednesday: ADP Employment, Productivity/Costs, Factory Orders; Thursday: Int’l Trade, Jobless Claims, PMI Services; Friday: Employment Situation.

     The latter is the biggie. It is one of the reports the Fed keys on.

NOTE: To track these, go to www. mam.econoday.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

NEWS ENVIRONMENT    

        The following news has been  a contributor to recent market weakness, though most of these issues have been with us for weeks/months. 

-a flawed trading system allowed another flash crash with the DJIA dropping more than 1,000 points at the open Aug. 24. July business investment is picking up.

-Chinese stock markets worst drop since 2007,  currently rebounding

-European stocks on verge of bear market (Germany’s DAX off 20%)

-U.S. stocks recovering from ugly crunch

-Commodities at 16-year low, but oil stabilizing.

-currency meltdown

-No one has a clue when the Fed will bump interest rates, including the Fed. The latest comment was by N.Y. Fed’s Dudley who said an increase in Sept. is “Less compelling”.

-Brent oil and WTI oil rebounding from lows

      NOTE: Some of the Street’s pundits are arguing that this market behavior is unreasonable since the U.S. economy is doing well, if not great. Bear in mind, the stock market has historically been an early warning signal for the beginning of a recession, leading by as little as two months and as much as  13 months.

………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but in a correction  into the fall.
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market has rebounded from August’s “flash crash”  and is approaching an area of resistance.
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Having broken major support levels, the market is probing for a level that discounts uncertainties and negatives.
  •  

SUMMARY 

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ?   An updated Q2 GDP reported came in at plus-3.7% (ann. rate) up from 2.3% initially reported.   Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.    

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk