Who Wants It Most … Bulls….or Bears ?

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA:  16,049
S&P 500: 1,884
Nasdaq  Comp.: 4,517
Russell 2000:  1,083

Wednesday:  Sept. 30,  2015   8:36 a.m.

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

      The ADP Employment report came at 8:15 a.m. today with Sept. payrolls up 200,000.  The Employment Situation report will come at 8:30 a.m. Friday, since “employment” has a bearing on a Fed decision to raise interest rates. 

      Monday’s  crunch wiped out any chance that the 17-day consolidation phase following the Aug. 24 flash crash could serve as a base for a rebound.     

       Bearish sentiment  has intensified  with so many global hotspots, none the least of which is plunging commodity prices.    What is happening there is beginning to look like the kind of “extreme” that will mark a turning point, ergo a  reversal ideally  after one big “flush.”  Commodities in general, especially copper have been crushed. Who in their right mind would buy them ?  hmmm.

       Q3 earnings will start to hit the Street in coming weeks along with adjustments in future estimates/guidance. I can’t see how they will make good reading, but stocks in general are down going into the report period, which helps (if you are long).    

 MY BAD:  Yesterday’s projection for the market averages was meant for the week, not Tuesday alone – damn.  We got a lot of  quarter-end churning yesterday, suggesting buyers had met sellers head-on,  but yesterday’s projection of DJIA: 16,494 ;  S&P 500: 1,952; Nasdaq Comp.:4,738 will  be a stretch for this week especially without a larger gain yesterday. Even so, with a follow through tomorrow and Friday, it’s possible.

TODAY:

      This rally surprised the Street, but I felt sentiment was getting too bearish.  Part of  this buying is related to institutional quarter-end adjustments, but some has to be bargain hunting.

       Buying here must become feverish if this rally is to  hold. A rally failure would pave the way for another leg down. We’ll have to see who wants it most – Bulls….or Bears ?

       Fed Chief Yellen speaks at 2:00 p.m.. She alone can stifle a rally. Nothing against her personally, but  the Fed has lost credibility. We are better off without ANYONE from the Fed speaking.  BEWARE !

        RESISTANCE “today”: DJIA:16,263; S&P 500:1907;  Nasdaq Comp.: 4,574 .

      

 …………………………………………………………………………………..

NOTE:  There is no FOMC meeting scheduled for November, and no press conference scheduled for October. If a press conference is suddenly scheduled for October, it will be a tip off to an announcement of a rate increase, likewise  for a meeting/press conference is scheduled for November.

     >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>    

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  September 28, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 15,586 a more extreme risk is 15,079. Near-term upside potential is 16,575.  Note: A drop below DJIA 15,713  would be very bearish.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

NEWS ENVIRONMENT    

        The following news has been  a contributor to recent market weakness, though most of these issues have been with us for weeks/months. 

-Chinese stock markets worst drop since 2007,  currently rebounding

-European stocks on verge of bear market (Germany’s DAX off 20%)

-U.S. stocks recovering from ugly crunch

-Commodities at 16-year low, but oil stabilizing.

-currency meltdown

      NOTE: Some of the Street’s pundits are arguing that this market behavior is unreasonable since the U.S. economy is doing well, if not great. Bear in mind, the stock market has historically been an early warning signal for the beginning of a recession, leading by as little as two months and as much as  13 months.

………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but “at risk” of  a bear market.
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market has rebounded from August’s “flash crash”  but will likely drop to a lower level.
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Having broken major support levels, the market is probing for a level that discounts uncertainties and negatives.
  •  

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No Room For a Rally Failure

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA:  16,001
S&P 500: 1,881
Nasdaq  Comp.4,543
Russell 2000:  1,092

Tuesday:  Sept. 29,  2015   9:13 a.m.

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

The two most anticipated economic reports this week  will be the ADP Employment report at 8:15 a.m. Wednesday and the Employment Situation report 8:30 a.m. Friday, since they will have a bearing on a Fed decision to raise interest rates. 

      Yesterday’s crunch wiped out any chance that the 17-day consolidation phase following the Aug. 24 flash crash could serve as a base for a rebound.

       The small company Russell 2000 actually plunged below the Aug. low, which the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. have yet to do.

       Bearish sentiment  is intensifying with so many global hotspots, none the least of which is plunging commodity prices.    That suggests an “extreme” that has to change, ergo a  reversal in oil prices, ideally  after one big “flush.”

TODAY:

      A lot of damage to stocks has already been done.  FactSet.com  notes that 21.6% of the S&P 500 are already down 20% (a bear market benchmark) and 9 out of 10 S&P 500 sectors are down for the year.

      Unfortunately, Q3 earnings will start to hit the Street next month along with adjustments in future estimates/guidance. I can’t see how they will make good reading.

       The S&P 500 must drop to 1707 (-11.6%) from current levels to comprise a bear market by “technical’ standards (-20%).  A 10% drop from here in the DJIA to 14,688 would take the average down 20% from its bull market high.

        With all the negativity, the bear case is a good one. Falling stock prices have passed the “Ouch” point, but not the “I can’t stand it anymore” (capitulation) point, which would take another harrowing plunge in prices.

         The market will open trading on the upside  today with an outside chance of reaching   DJIA: 16,494 ;  S&P 500: 1,952; Nasdaq Comp.:4,738.  A rally failure today would be very bearish.

…………………………………………………………………………………..

NOTE:  There is no FOMC meeting scheduled for November, and no press conference scheduled for October. If a press conference is suddenly scheduled for October, it will be a tip off to an announcement of a rate increase, likewise  for a meeting/press conference is scheduled for November.

     >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>    

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  September 28, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 15,586 a more extreme risk is 15,079. Near-term upside potential is 16,575.  Note: A drop below DJIA 15,713  would be very bearish.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

NEWS ENVIRONMENT    

        The following news has been  a contributor to recent market weakness, though most of these issues have been with us for weeks/months. 

-Chinese stock markets worst drop since 2007,  currently rebounding

-European stocks on verge of bear market (Germany’s DAX off 20%)

-U.S. stocks recovering from ugly crunch

-Commodities at 16-year low, but oil stabilizing.

-currency meltdown

      NOTE: Some of the Street’s pundits are arguing that this market behavior is unreasonable since the U.S. economy is doing well, if not great. Bear in mind, the stock market has historically been an early warning signal for the beginning of a recession, leading by as little as two months and as much as  13 months.

………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but “at risk” of  a bear market.
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market has rebounded from August’s “flash crash”  but will likely drop to a lower level.
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Having broken major support levels, the market is probing for a level that discounts uncertainties and negatives.
  •  

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bull – Bear Crossroads

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA:  16,314
S&P 500:  1931
Nasdaq  Comp.4,686;
Russell 2000:  1,124

Monday:  Sept. 28,  2015   9:13 a.m.

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

      Big week ahead for reports on the economy, starting today with  Pending Home Sales (10 a.m.) and the Dallas Fed Mfg. survey (10:30 a.m.).  The most watched report will be the ADP Employment report at 8:15 a.m. Wednesday and the Employment Situation report 8:30 a.m. Friday, since they will have a bearing on a Fed decision to raise interest rates. 

TODAY:

      Friday’s rally failure came after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp hit targeted resistance, then gave it all back by the close. While the DJIA closed ahead 113 points, 68 of that gain was due to a 10 point gain in Nike (NKE).

      While the market reversed a six-day sell off last Thursday, it closed on a soft note Friday.

       IMPORTANT:  This  17-day consolidation phase following the Aug. 24 flash crash can serve as a base for a rebound in stock prices   That suggests a chance of a surge into 2016.  That possibility cannot be dismissed even in face of a lot of bearish news and deflationary activity in commodities, especially copper.

      A lot of damage has already been done.  FactSet.com  notes that 21.6% of the S&P 500 are already down 20% (a bear market benchmark) and 9 out of 10 S&P 500 sectors are down for the year.

      It is not easy to be bullish at this time, but these are the conditions that spawn a surprise rebound.

        Most likely that rebound would arise from a scary spike down and a high volume, one-day reversal where a 300 – 400 point plunge in the DJIA is reversed with the market closing in the black.

         HOWEVER, we cannot afford to ignore cracks in the fundamental foundation  and a greenstick fracture in the market averages. It wouldn’t take more than a nudge to trigger a breakdown in prices to new 2015 lows.

        Q3 earnings will start to hit the Street next month along with adjustments in future estimates/guidance. I can’t see how they will make good reading.

CONCLUSION:

       Odds favor a rebound, but odds also suggest a strong  possibility of a harrowing shakeout first below DJIA 15,000 (S&P 500: 1,780). The extent of that shakeout will depend on what new news hits the market when it is trying to rebound.

………………………………………………………………………………….

SUPPORT today:  DJIA:16,130  S&P 500: 1,909; Nasdaq Comp.:4,634

…………………………………………………………………………………..

NOTE:  There is no FOMC meeting scheduled for November, and no press conference scheduled for October. If a press conference is suddenly scheduled for October, it will be a tip off to an announcement of a rate increase, likewise  for a meeting/press conference is scheduled for November.

      

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>    

THE FED – Why they blew it !

      The Fed’s decision not to initiate a rate increase at its September FOMC meeting now gives the Street the impression that when it does the economy is really heating up and additional rate increases are not far behind.  That will jolt the Street into heading for the exits.

      The Fed  wanted to ease the economy and markets into the rate increase process, but overstayed its zero-rate policy.

     There always will be reasons for caution, there will never be a “best” time.  If the economy cannot handle a minor increase in rates, we have bigger problems than anyone realizes.

      I do not believe that is the case, but the Street may see it differently when the Fed acts.

      Until now, I expected a rate increase to be accompanied by a brief but sharp sell off, followed by a BIG rally.  Odds of that are fading.

      The Street has  shuffled along behind the Fed on its decisions starting with “taper, or no taper” now with “Will it, or won’t it” on interest rates.

      The Street needs new benchmarks.  Going into a Presidential Election Year, the likelihood of an increase in interest rates lessens. The sooner the Street begins to focus on other factors, such as earnings ( a year out)  and valuations, the better everyone will be served itself included.

    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  September 25, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 16,168 a more extreme risk is 15,980. Near-term upside potential is 16,622.  Note: A drop below DJIA 15,713  would be very bearish.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

NEWS ENVIRONMENT    

        The following news has been  a contributor to recent market weakness, though most of these issues have been with us for weeks/months. 

-Chinese stock markets worst drop since 2007,  currently rebounding

-European stocks on verge of bear market (Germany’s DAX off 20%)

-U.S. stocks recovering from ugly crunch

-Commodities at 16-year low, but oil stabilizing.

-currency meltdown

      NOTE: Some of the Street’s pundits are arguing that this market behavior is unreasonable since the U.S. economy is doing well, if not great. Bear in mind, the stock market has historically been an early warning signal for the beginning of a recession, leading by as little as two months and as much as  13 months.

………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but in a correction  into the fall.
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market has rebounded from August’s “flash crash”  and is approaching an area of resistance.
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Having broken major support levels, the market is probing for a level that discounts uncertainties and negatives.
  •  

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Easy Does It – Fed Action Still Unclear

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA:  16,201
S&P 500:  1,932
Nasdaq  Comp.;4,734
Russell 2000:   1,177

Friday:  Sept. 25,  2015   9:13 a.m.

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

      The market rebounded yesterday in anticipation of Fed Chief Janet Yellen’s speech after the close.  This is the Yellen rally I said yesterday was “risky.”

      Today, it will “gap” up at the open as a result of  Yellen’s comment that the Fed was on track to raise interest rates this year.

       One reason given in a Bloomberg News article today for this morning’s buying is that, “Investors now have clarity after a muddled message from the Fed last week”  in its post-FOMC press conference.

       Beg pardon, but aren’t things even more muddled now ?  One week after the FOMC meeting the Fed Chair is locking the Fed into a “will raise rates” position by year-end.

       And if they don’t, what happens to a disintegrating Fed credibility then ?

       Early on in this recovery, I was a Fed supporter, but in recent years I think its message has become too inconsistent to deserve  credibility.

       The Fed is micro-managing the direction of the financial markets. One problem with that is you do not have a true read on the level stocks would normally sell at without the Fed’s intervention.

       Maybe a normal level for stock prices would be 10% – 15% lower.     

TODAY

       In spite of all this, the technical pattern of stock prices positive in that we had an air clearing flash crash in August and several tests of those lows forming a base that can support a sustained rebound.

       We are approaching the Best Six Months “ of the year for owning stocks * (Q4, Q1) and a lot of blue chips have been crushed.

        I am wary of jumping in today, especially with a “gap” open when  the odds of catching the high for the day are above average.

       I am wary of buying in response to Yellen’s  comments yesterday, its timing  and the possibility they will widen the Fed’s credibility gap further.

        A rally failure today would seriously damage to the technical picture.

RESISTANCE today: DJIA: 16,386 ; S&P 500:1,953; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,786

SUPPORT today:  The market averages should hold above yesterday’s close. A rally failure would take the market down to DJIA: 16,103; S&P 500: 1,920; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,705.

…………………………………………………………………………………..

NOTE:  There is no FOMC meeting scheduled for November, and no press conference scheduled for October. If a press conference is suddenly scheduled for October, it will be a tip off to an announcement of a rate increase, likewise  for a meeting/press conference is scheduled for November.     

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>    

THE FED – Why they blew it !

      The Fed’s decision not to initiate a rate increase at its September FOMC meeting now gives the Street the impression that when it does the economy is really heating up and additional rate increases are not far behind.  That will jolt the Street into heading for the exits.

      The Fed  wanted to ease the economy and markets into the rate increase process, but overstayed its zero-rate policy.

     There always will be reasons for caution, there will never be a “best” time.  If the economy cannot handle a minor increase in rates, we have bigger problems than anyone realizes.

      I do not believe that is the case, but the Street may see it differently when the Fed acts.

      Until now, I expected a rate increase to be accompanied by a brief but sharp sell off, followed by a BIG rally.  Odds of that are fading.

      The Street has  shuffled along behind the Fed on its decisions starting with “taper, or no taper” now with “Will it, or won’t it” on interest rates.

      The Street needs new benchmarks.  Going into a Presidential Election Year, the likelihood of an increase in interest rates lessens. The sooner the Street begins to focus on other factors, such as earnings ( a year out)  and valuations, the better everyone will be served itself included.

    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  September 18, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 16,288; a more extreme risk is 15,814. Near-term upside potential is 16,548.  Note: A drop below DJIA 15,713  would be very bearish.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

NEWS ENVIRONMENT    

        The following news has been  a contributor to recent market weakness, though most of these issues have been with us for weeks/months. 

-Chinese stock markets worst drop since 2007,  currently rebounding

-European stocks on verge of bear market (Germany’s DAX off 20%)

-U.S. stocks recovering from ugly crunch

-Commodities at 16-year low, but oil stabilizing.

-currency meltdown

      NOTE: Some of the Street’s pundits are arguing that this market behavior is unreasonable since the U.S. economy is doing well, if not great. Bear in mind, the stock market has historically been an early warning signal for the beginning of a recession, leading by as little as two months and as much as  13 months.

………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but in a correction  into the fall.
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market has rebounded from August’s “flash crash”  and is approaching an area of resistance.
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Having broken major support levels, the market is probing for a level that discounts uncertainties and negatives.
  •  

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yellen Rally Risky

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA:  16,279
S&P 500:  1,938
Nasdaq  Comp.;4,752
Russell 2000:   1,140

Thursday:  Sept. 24,  2015   9:13 a.m.

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

 SUMMARY:

PREPARE for OPPORTUNITY

Prepare yourself mentally for a buying opportunity.  Bear in mind, when they come, most investors are too frightened to act.  At such junctures, the market always looks like it will go lower. Know which stocks you will feel comfortable with owning.  It gets confusing at bottoms, since so many stocks are down hard at these junctures.  The greatest obstacle is the human factor – fear at bottoms, greed at tops, big reasons why “buying  low – selling  high” isn’t just that easy. One consideration is to take partial positions then average those as you feel more comfortable with your timing.

OIL:

     With an unrelenting barrage of bad news on the oil sector, these stocks have got to be approaching the “wrung out” phase.  We have seen a few optimistic but contrary forecasts about being oversold and about higher oil prices going forward, but on each occasion, sellers enter to hammer these stocks down further.. At some point, everyone just bails and that marks the turning point.

      Without a grand announcement about $75 oil (whatever), these stocks should have one more spike down.  Watch them closely.

TODAY

I have been targeting a September/October Buy for months. While, my “Trader’s Buy” Aug 24, prior to the “flash crash” was timely,  I have stuck to my belief the turn would come this month or next.

What could turn the market up ? 

      Fed Chief Janet Yellen will deliver a speech after the close today. Her intent will be to stabilize global markets which have been in turmoil since last Thursday’s Fed announcement  not to raise rates. Once again, the Fed is tampering with the normal flow of stock pricesvery, very  dangerous policy.

      Corporate earnings will begin to flow next month. While 2016 was originally forecast as solid, recent thinking clouds that picture, potential negative.

      Lower prices  would do it.  Under uncertain/horrid conditions, markets must find a comfort level.   

       We are in the process of “testing the August 24 flash crash intraday lows (DJIA:15,370; S&P 500;1,867; Nasdaq Comp.:4,292).

       Nimble traders can buy 10 minutes after the open, but sit very close to exits.

        Resistance today: DJIA: 16,418 ; S&P 500:1,954 ; Nasdaq Comp.:4,792 all assuming the market optimistically front-runs Yellen’s speech after the close.

        Support today: DJIA: 16,144; S&P 500: 1,925; Nasdaq Comp.:4,711.

NOTE:  There is no FOMC meeting scheduled for November, and no press conference scheduled for October. If a press conference is suddenly scheduled for October, it will be a tip off to an announcement of a rate increase, likewise  for a meeting/press conference is scheduled for November.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>    

THE FED – Why they blew it !

      The Fed’s decision not to initiate a rate increase at its September FOMC meeting now gives the Street the impression that when it does the economy is really heating up and additional rate increases are not far behind.  That will jolt the Street into heading for the exits.

      The Fed  wanted to ease the economy and markets into the rate increase process, but overstayed its zero-rate policy.

     There always will be reasons for caution, there will never be a “best” time.  If the economy cannot handle a minor increase in rates, we have bigger problems than anyone realizes.

      I do not believe that is the case, but the Street may see it differently when the Fed acts.

      Until now, I expected a rate increase to be accompanied by a brief but sharp sell off, followed by a BIG rally.  Odds of that are fading.

      The Street has  shuffled along behind the Fed on its decisions starting with “taper, or no taper” now with “Will it, or won’t it” on interest rates.

      The Street needs new benchmarks.  Going into a Presidential Election Year, the likelihood of an increase in interest rates lessens. The sooner the Street begins to focus on other factors, such as earnings ( a year out)  and valuations, the better everyone will be served itself included.

    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  September 18, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 16,288; a more extreme risk is 15,814. Near-term upside potential is 16,548.  Note: A drop below DJIA 15,713  would be very bearish.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

NEWS ENVIRONMENT    

        The following news has been  a contributor to recent market weakness, though most of these issues have been with us for weeks/months. 

-Chinese stock markets worst drop since 2007,  currently rebounding

-European stocks on verge of bear market (Germany’s DAX off 20%)

-U.S. stocks recovering from ugly crunch

-Commodities at 16-year low, but oil stabilizing.

-currency meltdown

      NOTE: Some of the Street’s pundits are arguing that this market behavior is unreasonable since the U.S. economy is doing well, if not great. Bear in mind, the stock market has historically been an early warning signal for the beginning of a recession, leading by as little as two months and as much as  13 months.

………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but in a correction  into the fall.
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market has rebounded from August’s “flash crash”  and is approaching an area of resistance.
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Having broken major support levels, the market is probing for a level that discounts uncertainties and negatives.

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Buying Opportunity Looms, but………..

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA:  16,330
S&P 500:  1,942
Nasdaq  Comp.;4,756
Russell 2000:   1,143

Wednesday:  Sept. 23,  2015   9:03 a.m.

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

 SUMMARY:

       Expect the Fed to trot out one of its governors to smooth over the impact of its decision not to raise interest rates last week, and its adverse impact on global markets.   That would trigger a rally of sorts.

      While the Street has heralded a Fed decision to defer rate increases in the past, it  is finding this “will it or won’t it” folly every month disconcerting. It seems  the Street is constantly looking over its shoulder for good news or bad news before making a decision.  Comments by Fed officials are better left to the press conference.

       There is no FOMC meeting scheduled for November, and no press conference scheduled for October. If a press conference is suddenly scheduled for October, it will be a tip off to an announcement of a rate increase, likewise  for a meeting/press conference is scheduled for November.

       Anybody give a hoot about corporate earnings ?

       I didn’t think so.

TODAY:

       We are in the process of “testing the August 24 flash crash intraday lows (DJIA:15,370; S&P 500;1,867; Nasdaq Comp.:4,292).

        Let’s not forget the fact this is a “pre-presidential election year,” historically the best of the four-year cycle.*  Then too, with the DJIA down 11% from its May high, the “Worst Six Months” seasonality is in full stride due to end November 1, though the slump could end any time. Sooooo, that suggests the “Best Six Months”* seasonality (Nov.1 to May1) has a chance of a repeat.*

        What’s my point ?

        Look for a buying opportunity.  With some negatives and uncertainties threatening to have a further impact, that opportunity may come at lower levels.

        It would be easier to read if we got a real crunch that weeds of all the nervous sellers.  A soft landing from these levels is possible, but it will have to be confirmed by unmistakable heavy volume  buying. I don’t see signs of that before the open.

        Resistance today: 16,468; S&P 500: 1,959; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,796

        Support today: 16,249; S&P 500: 1,932; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,732.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>    

THE FED – Why they blew it !

      The Fed’s decision not to initiate a rate increase at its September FOMC meeting now gives the Street the impression that when it does the economy is really heating up and additional rate increases are not far behind.  That will jolt the Street into heading for the exits.

      The Fed  wanted to ease the economy and markets into the rate increase process, but overstayed its zero-rate policy.

     There always will be reasons for caution, there will never be a “best” time.  If the economy cannot handle a minor increase in rates, we have bigger problems than anyone realizes.

      I do not believe that is the case, but the Street may see it differently when the Fed acts.

      Until now, I expected a rate increase to be accompanied by a brief but sharp sell off, followed by a BIG rally.  Odds of that are fading.

      The Street has  shuffled along behind the Fed on its decisions starting with “taper, or no taper” now with “Will it, or won’t it” on interest rates.

      The Street needs new benchmarks.  Going into a Presidential Election Year, the likelihood of an increase in interest rates lessens. The sooner the Street begins to focus on other factors, such as earnings ( a year out)  and valuations, the better everyone will be served itself included.

    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  September 18, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 16,288; a more extreme risk is 15,814. Near-term upside potential is 16,548.  Note: A drop below DJIA 15,713  would be very bearish.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

NEWS ENVIRONMENT    

        The following news has been  a contributor to recent market weakness, though most of these issues have been with us for weeks/months. 

-Chinese stock markets worst drop since 2007,  currently rebounding

-European stocks on verge of bear market (Germany’s DAX off 20%)

-U.S. stocks recovering from ugly crunch

-Commodities at 16-year low, but oil stabilizing.

-currency meltdown

      NOTE: Some of the Street’s pundits are arguing that this market behavior is unreasonable since the U.S. economy is doing well, if not great. Bear in mind, the stock market has historically been an early warning signal for the beginning of a recession, leading by as little as two months and as much as  13 months.

………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but in a correction  into the fall.
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market has rebounded from August’s “flash crash”  and is approaching an area of resistance.
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Having broken major support levels, the market is probing for a level that discounts uncertainties and negatives.
  •  

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Spike !

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA:  16,510
S&P 500:  1,966
Nasdaq  Comp.;4,828
Russell 2000:   1,161

Tuesday:  Sept. 22,  2015   9:13 a.m.

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

  TODAY:

     Quad Witching Friday and the day after are behind us and our stock market and those abroad are being tested.  What happens in coming days may decide if  the decline that started August 18 kicks off  a bear market, or just an ugly correction.

     Generally, a 20% decline in the stock market comprises a bear market. August’s flash crash (Aug. 18 – Aug. 24) dropped the DJIA 16.2%, the S&P 500: 12.5% and Nasdaq Comp. 17.9% (intraday).

      The difference between an ugly correction and a bear market is what news hits it when it is trying to turn back up.  Since the Aug. 24 low, the markets have been trying to sustain a rebound. That hit a wall last Thursday when the Fed announced it WAS NOT going to increase rates. That’s ironic, since the Street has always greeted a decision not to raise rates with buying.

       The morning before the Fed’s announcement, I urged readers to “raise cash” if the Fed opted out of an increase (SEE below). After a sharp rally that afternoon, the market sold off  with the help of Quad Witching Friday’s future’s/options expire.

      Yesterday, I headlined, “ Spike Down If Rally Fails.”

      Today we are getting a spike down in face of  tumbling commodities prices abroad and fears that China’s economy is tanking.

      The price chart of the Stoxx Europe 600 is a green stick fracture on the verge of a full fracture.

      This is not a pretty picture, since it won’t take much more downside in U.S. markets to  trace out the same dire picture.

       I am still holding to my forecast for a September/October bottom, in spite of my Aug. 24, “Trader’s Buy” before the open,  the day the flash crash ended. 

       I am open to the possibility that was the bottom, that another bottom can be made above those extreme levels.

SUPPORT today: DJIA: 16,118; S&P 500:1,938; Nasdaq Comp.:4,761

 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

THE FED – Why they blew it !

      The Fed’s decision not to initiate a rate increase at its September FOMC meeting now gives the Street the impression that when it does the economy is really heating up and additional rate increases are not far behind.  That will jolt the Street into heading for the exits.

      The Fed  wanted to ease the economy and markets into the rate increase process, but overstayed its zero-rate policy.

     There always will be reasons for caution, there will never be a “best” time.  If the economy cannot handle a minor increase in rates, we have bigger problems than anyone realizes.

      I do not believe that is the case, but the Street may see it differently when the Fed acts.

      Until now, I expected a rate increase to be accompanied by a brief but sharp sell off, followed by a BIG rally.  Odds of that are fading.

      The Street has  shuffled along behind the Fed on its decisions starting with “taper, or no taper” now with “Will it, or won’t it” on interest rates.

      The Street needs new benchmarks.  Going into a Presidential Election Year, the likelihood of an increase in interest rates lessens. The sooner the Street begins to focus on other factors, such as earnings ( a year out)  and valuations, the better everyone will be served itself included.

    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  September 18, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 16,288; a more extreme risk is 15,814. Near-term upside potential is 16,548.  Note: A drop below DJIA 15,713  would be very bearish.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

NEWS ENVIRONMENT    

        The following news has been  a contributor to recent market weakness, though most of these issues have been with us for weeks/months. 

-Chinese stock markets worst drop since 2007,  currently rebounding

-European stocks on verge of bear market (Germany’s DAX off 20%)

-U.S. stocks recovering from ugly crunch

-Commodities at 16-year low, but oil stabilizing.

-currency meltdown

      NOTE: Some of the Street’s pundits are arguing that this market behavior is unreasonable since the U.S. economy is doing well, if not great. Bear in mind, the stock market has historically been an early warning signal for the beginning of a recession, leading by as little as two months and as much as  13 months.

………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but in a correction  into the fall.
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market has rebounded from August’s “flash crash”  and is approaching an area of resistance.
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Having broken major support levels, the market is probing for a level that discounts uncertainties and negatives.
  •  

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Spike Down If Rally Fails

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA:  16,384
S&P 500:  1,958
Nasdaq  Comp.;4,827
Russell 2000:   1,163
Monday:  Sept. 21,  2015   9:03 a.m.

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

 TODAY:

      The market will rebound today, part of that due to the Friday expiration of  index futures, index options, stock options and stock futures.

      Last week also featured a Thursday decision by the Fed to delay an interest rate increase, which resulted in a sharp sell off.

      How much of that sell off can be attributed to the Fed decision and the expire of futures and options will be better known this week.

      If the Street  sees the Fed’s inaction as bullish, as it has for years, the market will recover Friday’s loss.

      If the Street abandons its ridiculous  addiction to Fed policy and begins to focus on other factors such as corporate earnings, valuations, economies here and abroad, and international tensions, stock prices will have to find a comfort level at lower levels.

      Failure to follow through on the upside today will  result in another slide and quite possibly a very ugly spike down later this week.

RESISTANCE today: DJIA: 16,469; S&P 500:1,966 ; Nasdaq Comp.:4,851.
SUPPORT today: DJIA:16,367 ; S&P 500:1,956; Nasdaq Comp.:4,825

     These support levels assume a rally will hold. They become invalid if the rally fails  during the day., especially if it fails before 10:45. If that develops, support becomes  DJIA: 16,217; S&P 500: 1,943; Nasdaq Comp.:4,796.

      Futures/options expire Friday will skew results somewhat today, since traders didn’t know what the Fed would announce until 2:00 p.m. Thursday.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.149677) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  September 18, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 16,288; a more extreme risk is 15,814. Near-term upside potential is 16,548.  Note: A drop below DJIA 15,713  would be very bearish.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

NEWS ENVIRONMENT    

        The following news has been  a contributor to recent market weakness, though most of these issues have been with us for weeks/months. 

-Chinese stock markets worst drop since 2007,  currently rebounding

-European stocks on verge of bear market (Germany’s DAX off 20%)

-U.S. stocks recovering from ugly crunch

-Commodities at 16-year low, but oil stabilizing.

-currency meltdown

      NOTE: Some of the Street’s pundits are arguing that this market behavior is unreasonable since the U.S. economy is doing well, if not great. Bear in mind, the stock market has historically been an early warning signal for the beginning of a recession, leading by as little as two months and as much as  13 months.

………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but in a correction  into the fall.
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market has rebounded from August’s “flash crash”  and is approaching an area of resistance.
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Having broken major support levels, the market is probing for a level that discounts uncertainties and negatives.
  •  

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

The FED Blew It !! Street Now in Quandary

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA:  16,674
S&P 500:  1,990
Nasdaq  Comp.;4,893
Russell 2000:  

Friday:  Sept. 18,  2015   9:03 a.m.

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

  REAL RISK NOW:

      Once again, the Fed has decided to delay an interest rate increase for a number of reasons, including global economic and financial developments and the lack of adequate inflationary pressures (deflation ??).

      The Fed really wants to ease us into higher interest rates starting with a tiny raise, then gradually ramping rates up.

       There is a double headed risk here.  Don’t raise rates, then they can’t be reduced if needed to stimulate the economy later. 

       Worse yet would be, an unexpected surge in global economies and the need to counter it with a sharp jump in rates followed closely by more increases.

       The result would be a vertical freefall in the stock market on the order of  4,000 – 5,000 points in the DJIA.  They blew it yesterday.  The Street could have taken a small increase in stride.  Now the Street is beginning to wonder if anyone has a handle on this, or if  it’s anyone’s guess.

 TODAY:

      Yesterday’s  blog headline here, “Raise Cash on Rally If Fed Doesn’t Raise Rates”    was spot on for the reasons noted above, but also because the Fed decision came two hours before Quad Witching Friday when index futures, index options, stock options and stock futures all expire on the same day.

       Following the Fed’s announcement at 2:00 p.m., the DJIA surged 260 points only to reverse down and close off 65 points.  It will open down another 140+ points today.

       I characterized Friday’s potential market action as “raucous,” for the obvious reasons.  

       Today will feature extreme volatility as traders unwind futures and options positions that they were unable to execute in advance because they didn’t know whether the Fed would increase rates on Thursday after its FOMC meeting.   RESISTANCE today: DJIA:16,752; S&P 500:1,999; Nasdaq Comp.:4,914

SUPPORT today: DJIA:16,416; S&P 500:1,961; Nasdaq Comp.:4,819.

Quad Witching Day – things happen for reasons other than day-to-day considerations.  Monday could be a hummer, as well

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  September 8, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 15,827; a more extreme risk is 15,713. Near-term upside potential is 16,930.  Note: A drop below DJIA 15,713  would be very bearish.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

NEWS ENVIRONMENT    

        The following news has been  a contributor to recent market weakness, though most of these issues have been with us for weeks/months. 

-Chinese stock markets worst drop since 2007,  currently rebounding

-European stocks on verge of bear market (Germany’s DAX off 20%)

-U.S. stocks recovering from ugly crunch

-Commodities at 16-year low, but oil stabilizing.

-currency meltdown

      NOTE: Some of the Street’s pundits are arguing that this market behavior is unreasonable since the U.S. economy is doing well, if not great. Bear in mind, the stock market has historically been an early warning signal for the beginning of a recession, leading by as little as two months and as much as  13 months.

………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but in a correction  into the fall.
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market has rebounded from August’s “flash crash”  and is approaching an area of resistance.
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Having broken major support levels, the market is probing for a level that discounts uncertainties and negatives.
  •  

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Raise Cash on Rally If Fed Doesn’t Raise Rates – Buying Opportunity After Sell Off If Fed Raises Rates

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA:  16,739
S&P 500:  1.995
Nasdaq  Comp.;4,889
Russell 2000:   1,175

Thursday:  Sept. 17,  2015   9:01 a.m.

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

SUMMARY:

   That is what I said – defies logic – Right ?

   A sell off if Fed raises rates may push into early trading tomorrow.

   Quad Witching Friday may intervene to shew the picture temporarily. I don’t think we have ever had a key Fed decision coincide so closely with Quad Witching (see below).

   Stocks jumped again yesterday partly due to unwinding of option/ futures positions as well as buyers front running what they think will be a decision tomorrow at 2:00 by the Fed NOT to raise interest rates.

TODAY: 

      The day the Street has been waiting for – the Fed’s announcement of its decision on interest rates at 2:00.  That will be followed by a press conference headed up by Fed Chief Janet Yellen at 2:30.

      This announcement comes a day before index futures, index options, stock options and stock futures expire, otherwise known as Quad Witching Friday.

      The combo raises the odds of a  raucous day of trading Tomorrow since many traders  were unable to unwind options and futures contracts in advance, not knowing what the Fed was going to do.

RESISTANCE today: DJIA:16,876; S&P 500:2,013; Nasdaq Comp.:4,929.

SUPPORT today: DJIA: 16,628; S&P 500:1,980; Nasdaq Comp.:4,854.

An increase in Fed interest rates today should hammer stocks briefly, but be followed by a rally.

A decision NOT to raise rates should trigger a rally followed by a sell off.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  September 8, 2015,  a reasonable risk is 15,827; a more extreme risk is 15,713. Near-term upside potential is 16,930.  Note: A drop below DJIA 15,713  would be very bearish.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

NEWS ENVIRONMENT    

        The following news has been  a contributor to recent market weakness, though most of these issues have been with us for weeks/months. 

-Chinese stock markets worst drop since 2007,  currently rebounding

-European stocks on verge of bear market (Germany’s DAX off 20%)

-U.S. stocks recovering from ugly crunch

-Commodities at 16-year low, but oil stabilizing.

-currency meltdown

      NOTE: Some of the Street’s pundits are arguing that this market behavior is unreasonable since the U.S. economy is doing well, if not great. Bear in mind, the stock market has historically been an early warning signal for the beginning of a recession, leading by as little as two months and as much as  13 months.

………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but in a correction  into the fall.
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market has rebounded from August’s “flash crash”  and is approaching an area of resistance.
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Having broken major support levels, the market is probing for a level that discounts uncertainties and negatives.
  •  

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk