Big Day “if” Bulls Show Up

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,408
S&P 500
: 2,083
Nasdaq  Comp.: 5,033
Russell 2000: 1,204

Friday,  Aug. 14, 2015   9:09 a.m.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

TODAY: 

      Yesterday’s stall came as expected with some negative spillover into today’s open.

      In a press conference, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) assured the world further devaluations in its currency (yuan) were not forthcoming, since it wasn’t needed to grow exports. We’ll see.

     For the moment, it removes an uncertainty from global investing, others remain, primarily economic growth here and in Europe and Asia where economies appear to be sluggish.

     Selling at the open Wednesday took prices low enough to attract buyers, but they weren’t chasing stocks yesterday.

      Today will tell us just how comfortable the BIG money is  buying in face of winless alternatives – an economic rebound triggers an increase in interest rates by the Fed, a slumping economy  crunches corporate earnings going forward. Ugh.

      The only constant is volatility. 

       Watch closely for the bulls to show their hand between 9:50 and 10:30 today. If they show up, look for a BIG day.      

………………………………………………………………………………

 

RESISTANCE:  DJIA: 17,456; S&P 500:2,089 ;  Nasdaq Comp.: 5,056.

There is a chance the bulls will jump in here. In that case resistance will come at a higher level:  DJIA: 17,567; S&P 500: 2,098; Nasdaq Comp: 5,087.    

SUPPORT: DJIA:17,307; S&P 500: 2,076; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,017

      ………………………………………………………………………………..

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.
……………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but vulnerable to a continued correction/consolidation into the fall
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market reversed Tuesday after quick plunge and will be rebounding into resistance (again).
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Big week for economic reports plus FOMC meeting and a report (no press conference) at 2:00 Wednesday.
  •  

SUMMARY 

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ? So far, results are mixed. Yesterday’s news indicates softness in chain store sales and Consumer Confidence, but a bit of strength in PMI Services  and good strength in Richmond Fed Manufacturing.

     Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.c

My TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies:  (As of 8/11).

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  August 11,  a reasonable risk is 17,250; a more extreme risk is 17,056The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 17,758.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Devaluation of the Chinese yuan

-U.S. economy – rebound Q3 and Q4 ?

-Fed increase in interest rates

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Easy Does It on Today’s Rally

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,402
S&P 500
: 2,086
Nasdaq  Comp.5,044:
Russell 2000: 1,208

Thursday,  Aug 13, 2015   8:03 a.m.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

TODAY: 

     There simply is no other place to put one’s money.  That will work until  the market keeps dropping when just about everyone expects it to bounce. That’s how it works at tops. 

      “New-to-the market” investors are especially attracted to buy on that initial drop. Having seen the market rise relentlessly, they finally make the plunge, sure that it is safe to buy.

      Yesterday’s rebound  fulfilled my  alert for traders of the “possibility” of a one-day reversal where a big loss in early trading is reversed with stocks recouping all of the day’s loss. 

      We have had a lot of these one-day reversals.  Stocks drop to a level the Street’s computers  think is attractive if only for a couple days and the heavy hitters step in.

      In fact, we have had so many of these reversal in both directions. They are readable in advance, but the moves are short-lived.

      Money can be made, but positions must be  large enough so it takes only a fraction of a point, or point  to make one’s day.  This trading partly explains the volatility.

………………………………………………………………………………

      Yesterday’s low hit halfway between my reasonable and extreme risk bottoms for my technical analysis of the 30 industrials (17,250 and 17,056)

RESISTANCE:  DJIA:17,492; S&P 500: 2,096 ;  Nasdaq Comp.:5.068  .    

SUPPORT: DJIA:  17,319 ; S&P 500: 2,076 ; Nasdaq Comp.:5,015

Think of a yo-yo, then think of market volatility at turning points (major and minor).  My supports here are questionable.

     A rally failure before 11:00 a.m. can accelerate on the downside. 

      ………………………………………………………………………………..

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.
……………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but vulnerable to a continued correction/consolidation into the fall
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market reversed Tuesday after quick plunge and will be rebounding into resistance (again).
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Big week for economic reports plus FOMC meeting and a report (no press conference) at 2:00 Wednesday.
  •  

SUMMARY 

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ? So far, results are mixed. Yesterday’s news indicates softness in chain store sales and Consumer Confidence, but a bit of strength in PMI Services  and good strength in Richmond Fed Manufacturing.

     Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.    

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.c

My TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies:  (As of 8/11).

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  August 11,  a reasonable risk is 17,250; a more extreme risk is 17,056The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 17,758.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Devaluation of the Chinese yuan

-U.S. economy – rebound Q3 and Q4 ?

-Fed increase in interest rates

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Traders Tempted, but…….

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA:17,402
S&P 500
: 2,084
Nasdaq  Comp.5,036:
Russell 2000: 1,271

Wednesday,  Aug 12, 2015   9:13

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

TODAY:  The market is in a quandary with the Street trying to find a level for stock prices that discounts the new  uncertainty of China’s yuan devaluation, the old uncertainties  of mid-east  turmoil, oil prices, corporate earnings, Fed policy, Russia, Europe.  All this and a stock market that is a bit pricey.

     Huge amounts of leveraged money are being lobbed back and forth between bulls and bears like one of those medicine balls  in a gym.

     Normally, uncertainties like the ones listed above would crunch stock prices, driving them lower until the uncertainties were fully discounted. That threshold has not been crossed. If it is, we will see a freefall because everyone and every computer  on the Street will see it at the same time.

     So far, the Street has hung tough through worse negatives and run stock prices up to new highs, so the Bulls are not toast yet. There really isn’t anywhere else to invest.  That conclusion is still front and center, enabling stock prices to relentlessly press higher over six years.

     The markets are probing for a comfort level.  For over a month, I have targeted the fall (Sept./Oct.) as a buying juncture – still do, though a lot of spikes up in the interim.

………………………………………………………………………………

SUPPORT: 17,243; S&P 500: 2,084; Nasdaq Comp.:4,979.

      Traders can be on the alert for the “possibility” of a one-day reversal today where a big loss in early trading is reversed with stocks recouping all of the day’s loss.  

………………………………………………………………………………..

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.
……………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but vulnerable to a continued correction/consolidation into the fall
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market reversed Friday after quick plunge and will be rebounding into resistance.
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Big week for economic reports plus FOMC meeting and a report (no press conference) at 2:00 Wednesday.
  •  

SUMMARY  (No change)

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ? So far, results are mixed. Yesterday’s news indicates softness in chain store sales and Consumer Confidence, but a bit of strength in PMI Services  and good strength in Richmond Fed Manufacturing.

     Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.    

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.c

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  (As of 8/11)

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  August 11,  a reasonable risk is 17,250; a more extreme risk is 17,056The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 17,758.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Devaluation of the Chinese yuan

-U.S. economy – rebound Q3 and Q4 ?

-Fed increase in interest rates

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,615
S&P 500: 2,104
Nasdaq  Comp.: 5,101
Russell 2000: 1,222

Tuesday,  Aug 11, 2015   9:09

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

TODAY :     Just too much happening that the Street can’t get its arms around. Not new stuff but puzzlement over the Fed’s decision on a bump in interest rates, the economy, China and Europe.  On top of all this is a market that is a bit overpriced for all this uncertainty.

      The result: Increased volatility, irrational volatility, and that raises risk levels.

      The Friday/Monday rebound was heartening for the bulls after a scary plunge Thursday and Friday morning.

 ………………………………………………………………………………

SUPPORT: The market must find buyers above DJIA: 17,440; S&P 500: 2,083; Nasdaq Comp: 5,060

………………………………………………………………………………..

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.
……………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but vulnerable to a continued correction/consolidation into the fall
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market reversed Friday after quick plunge and will be rebounding into resistance.
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Big week for economic reports plus FOMC meeting and a report (no press conference) at 2:00 Wednesday.
  •  

SUMMARY  (No change)

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ? So far, results are mixed. Yesterday’s news indicates softness in chain store sales and Consumer Confidence, but a bit of strength in PMI Services  and good strength in Richmond Fed Manufacturing.

     Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.    

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.c

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  July 31,  a reasonable risk is 17,498; a more extreme risk is 16,945 The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 17,945.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
Q2 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Recent strength in employment and housing industry shifting concern from a weakening in the U.S. economy to enough strength to prompt an early bump up in interest rates.

-Greece:  I DON’T  THINK GREECE WILL BE IN THE EURO A YEAR FROM NOW

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Successful Test

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,550
S&P 500: 2,093
Nasdaq  Comp.:5,105
Russell 2000: 1,228

Wednesday,  Aug 5, 2015   9:06 a.m.

NOTE: I will be traveling Thursday through Monday and will not produce a blog

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

TODAY :    

     The rally that started five days ago at DJIA 17,399 (S&P 500: 2,063, Nasdaq Comp. : 5,025) has tested those levels and is moving higher today.    

    We are well into Q2 earnings and the Street should be getting a read on forthcoming quarters. Apparently, the likes what it sees, and is buying.

    The buying comes at a good time, since the market was threatening to go significantly lower if the lows noted above were broken.

    Out of the woods ?  For now, yes. The bears can only hope for a rally failure, a one-day reversal that wipes out all of today’s gains.

………………………………………………………………………………

RESISTANCE today starts at DJIA:17,703;  S&P 500: 2,111; Nasdaq Comp.:5,143

      Should the market hit resistance here and hold, Support becomes DJIA: 17,648; S&P 500: 2,103; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,122. That must hold, or the market is once again at risk.

………………………………………………………………………………..

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.
……………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but vulnerable to a continued correction/consolidation into the fall
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in and overhead supply is building
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Big week for economic reports plus FOMC meeting and a report (no press conference) at 2:00 Wednesday.
  •  

SUMMARY  (No change)

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ? So far, results are mixed. Yesterday’s news indicates softness in chain store sales and Consumer Confidence, but a bit of strength in PMI Services  and good strength in Richmond Fed Manufacturing.

     Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.

      FactSet projects a year/year decline of 4.5% for Q2 this year, or a 2.1% drop in Q2 alone. The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 16.5, above the 5-year average of 13.9 and 10-year average of 14.1.  There are disappointments, including Materials, Energy, Industrials, Telecom, Healthcare, Tech and Utilities, according to FactSet research (www.factset.com)

     

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

THE FED:

      FOMC meeting last produced one surprise for serious  parsers of the minutes, thanks to Mark Pender (econoday.com). The Fed indicated it would raise interest rates when it sees “some” further improvement in employment growth, the word “some” added to suggest an easing of criteria.

…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  July 31,  a reasonable risk is 17,498; a more extreme risk is 16,945 The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 17,945.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
Q2 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Recent strength in employment and housing industry shifting concern from a weakening in the U.S. economy to enough strength to prompt an early bump up in interest rates.

-Greece:  I DON’T  THINK GREECE WILL BE IN THE EURO A YEAR FROM NOW

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bull- Bear Control Decided This Week ?

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,598
S&P 500: 2,098
Nasdaq  Comp.: 5,115
Russell 2000: 1,231

Tuesday,  Aug 4, 2015   9:06 a.m.

NOTE: I will be traveling Thursday through Monday and will not produce a blog

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

TODAY :     

     If the rally that started five days ago at DJIA 17,399 (S&P 500: 2,063, Nasdaq Comp. : 5,025) fails, the market will  test those levels.  Failure there will trigger a much greater slide.

     Yesterday’s slide met with buying above these levels, a good sign, but further testing is needed. That should come this week. The four major market indexes closed well off yesterday’s lows. If the Street was intent on selling that couldn’t happen.

     If the Street decides it’s time to sell, this market will head south is a big hurry. So far, all the signals it is getting are mixed, some positive, some negative, ergo volatility.

    We are well into Q2 earnings and the Street should be getting a read on forthcoming quarters. If they like what they see, the overhead supply should not be able to stop the market’s advance.

………………………………………………………………………………

RESISTANCE today starts at DJIA:17,634 ;  S&P 500: 2,103; Nasdaq Comp.:5,126

SUPPORT today: DJIA: 17,557; S&P 500:2,091 ; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,101 .

………………………………………………………………………………..

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.
……………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but vulnerable to a continued correction/consolidation into the fall
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in and overhead supply is building
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Big week for economic reports plus FOMC meeting and a report (no press conference) at 2:00 Wednesday.
  •  

SUMMARY  (No change)

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ? So far, results are mixed. Yesterday’s news indicates softness in chain store sales and Consumer Confidence, but a bit of strength in PMI Services  and good strength in Richmond Fed Manufacturing.

     Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.

      FactSet projects a year/year decline of 4.5% for Q2 this year, or a 2.1% drop in Q2 alone. The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 16.5, above the 5-year average of 13.9 and 10-year average of 14.1.  There are disappointments, including Materials, Energy, Industrials, Telecom, Healthcare, Tech and Utilities, according to FactSet research (www.factset.com)    

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

THE FED:

      FOMC meeting last produced one surprise for serious  parsers of the minutes, thanks to Mark Pender (econoday.com). The Fed indicated it would raise interest rates when it sees “some” further improvement in employment growth, the word “some” added to suggest an easing of criteria.

…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  July 31,  a reasonable risk is 17,498; a more extreme risk is 16,945 The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 17,945.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
Q2 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Recent strength in employment and housing industry shifting concern from a weakening in the U.S. economy to enough strength to prompt an early bump up in interest rates.

-Greece:  I DON’T  THINK GREECE WILL BE IN THE EURO A YEAR FROM NOW

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rally Stalls – Big Test for Bulls

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,690
S&P 500: 2,103
Nasdaq  Comp.5,128
Russell 2000: 1,238

Monday,  Aug 3, 2015   9:06 a.m.

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TODAY :

      The market ran into a wall in each of the last three days with a sell off Friday.

     If the rally that started five days ago at DJIA 17,399 (S&P 500: 2,063, Nasdaq Comp. : 5,025) fails, the market will  test those levels.  Failure there will trigger a much greater slide.

    That means the bulls must step in this week with some serious buying.

    We are well into Q2 earnings and the Street should be getting a read on forthcoming quarters. If they like what they see, the overhead supply should not be able to stop the market’s advance.

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RESISTANCE today starts at DJIA:17,727;  S&P 500: 2,113; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,142

SUPPORT today: DJIA:17,656; S&P 500:2,098  ; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,113.

Both resistance and support are tentative and allow for little wiggle room.

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NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.
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  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but vulnerable to a continued correction/consolidation into the fall
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in and overhead supply is building
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Big week for economic reports plus FOMC meeting and a report (no press conference) at 2:00 Wednesday.
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SUMMARY  (No change)

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ? So far, results are mixed. Yesterday’s news indicates softness in chain store sales and Consumer Confidence, but a bit of strength in PMI Services  and good strength in Richmond Fed Manufacturing.

     Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.

      FactSet projects a year/year decline of 4.5% for Q2 this year, or a 2.1% drop in Q2 alone. The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 16.5, above the 5-year average of 13.9 and 10-year average of 14.1.  There are disappointments, including Materials, Energy, Industrials, Telecom, Healthcare, Tech and Utilities, according to FactSet research (www.factset.com)

     

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THE FED:

      FOMC meeting last produced one surprise for serious  parsers of the minutes, thanks to Mark Pender (econoday.com). The Fed indicated it would raise interest rates when it sees “some” further improvement in employment growth, the word “some” added to suggest an easing of criteria.

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My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  July 31,  a reasonable risk is 17,498; a more extreme risk is 16,945 The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 17,945.

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KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
Q2 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Recent strength in employment and housing industry shifting concern from a weakening in the U.S. economy to enough strength to prompt an early bump up in interest rates.

-Greece:  I DON’T  THINK GREECE WILL BE IN THE EURO A YEAR FROM NOW

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

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George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk