Important Test for Bulls

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA:  16,643
S&P 500:  1,988
Nasdaq  Comp. 4,828
Russell 2000:   1,162

Monday:  Aug. 31, 2015   9:07 a.m.

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

CONCLUSION: 

      A “flash crash” last Monday, Aug. 24 jolted the Street at the open with a  plunge in the DJIA of more than 1,000 points.

      How much of that crunch was computer driven and how much was a warning of  an even greater decline to come will play out in coming weeks.

      While the snapback from my “Trader’s Buy” before the open Monday has been impressive, it will be tested.  

      If buyers are quick to jump on lower prices, after 10:00 a.m., look for a sharp rally and a positive close for the day. Persistent selling takes the market below today’s support.

      SUPPORT today:  DJIA: 16,473; S&P 500:1,968 ; Nasdaq Comp.:4,780.

      RESISTANCE today if we get a rebound from early selling is: DJIA: 16,767; S&P 500: 2,002; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,864.

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

MY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  August 28,  a reasonable risk is 16,468; a more extreme risk is 16,208. Near-term upside potential is 16,996.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

ECONOMIC INDICATORS – Key reports this week>

     Based on global uncertainty, it is unlikely the Fed will bump interest rates at its FOMC meeting Sept. 16. Even so, the Street will monitor  the economy in the interim.

     Monday: Chicago PMI, Dallas Mfg Ix.; Tuesday: PMI Mfg.,ISM Mfg., Construction Spend., Wednesday: ADP Employment, Productivity/Costs, Factory Orders; Thursday: Int’l Trade, Jobless Claims, PMI Services; Friday: Employment Situation.

     The latter is the biggie. It is one of the reports the Fed keys on.

NOTE: To track these, go to www. mam.econoday.com
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

NEWS ENVIRONMENT    

        The following news has been  a contributor to recent market weakness, though most of these issues have been with us for weeks/months. 

-a flawed trading system allowed another flash crash with the DJIA dropping more than 1,000 points at the open Aug. 24. July business investment is picking up.

-Chinese stock markets worst drop since 2007,  currently rebounding

-European stocks on verge of bear market (Germany’s DAX off 20%)

-U.S. stocks recovering from ugly crunch

-Commodities at 16-year low, but oil stabilizing.

-currency meltdown

-No one has a clue when the Fed will bump interest rates, including the Fed. The latest comment was by N.Y. Fed’s Dudley who said an increase in Sept. is “Less compelling”.

-Brent oil and WTI oil rebounding from lows

      NOTE: Some of the Street’s pundits are arguing that this market behavior is unreasonable since the U.S. economy is doing well, if not great. Bear in mind, the stock market has historically been an early warning signal for the beginning of a recession, leading by as little as two months and as much as  13 months.

………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but in a correction  into the fall.
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market has rebounded from August’s “flash crash”  and is approaching an area of resistance.
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Having broken major support levels, the market is probing for a level that discounts uncertainties and negatives.
  •  

SUMMARY 

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ?   An updated Q2 GDP reported came in at plus-3.7% (ann. rate) up from 2.3% initially reported.   Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.     

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Big Test for Rebound From Monday’s Lows

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA:  16,654.
S&P 500:  1,987
Nasdaq  Comp. 4,812
Russell 2000:   1,153

Friday:  Aug. 28, 2015   9:07 a.m.

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

CONCLUSION: 

     The rebound that started Monday after a bloodbath at the open has been tested every day since.  On each occasion, buyers stepped in to turn the market back up.

      With the major market averages recouping two-thirds of the ground lost since the 11.7%, three-day plunge in the DJIA Monday, sellers can be expected to hit the market.

      This is the most serious test so far this week. 

       The stock market can go into a freefall, another leg down that takes the averages well below Monday’s low, or it can notch down over the course of four or five days to test its recent lows..

       The bullish alternative would be for buyers to step in once again and run stocks higher by mid-afternoon.

       Odds favor a notch down test of Monday’s lows.  The first 35 minutes should give us a read whether buyers are waiting for a pullback.

        I have still not ruled out a September/October bottom.

SUPPORT today:  DJIA: 16,543; S&P 500: 1,973; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,778.

RESISTANCE today: DJIA: 16,713 ; S&P 500: 1,994 ; Nasdaq Comp.:4,836.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

NEWS ENVIRONMENT    

        The following news was a contributor, though most of these issues have been with us for weeks/months.  A breakdown to  a “comfort level” was justified, but not that extreme.  The system is still broken.

-Chinese stock markets worst drop since 2007,  currently rebounding

-European stocks on verge of bear market (Germany’s DAX off 20%)

-U.S. stocks recovering from ugly crunch

-Commodities at 16-year low, but oil stabilizing.

-currency meltdown

-No one has a clue when the Fed will bump interest rates, including the Fed

-Brent oil and WTI oil rebounding from lows

      NOTE: Some of the Street’s pundits are arguing that this market behavior is unreasonable since the U.S. economy is doing well, if not great. Bear in mind, the stock market has historically been an early warning signal for the beginning of a recession, leading by as little as two months and as much as  13 months.

………………………………………………………………………………

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.
……………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but in a correction  into the fall.
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market reversed Tuesday after quick plunge and will be rebounding into resistance (again).
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Having broken major support levels, the market is probing for a level that discounts uncertainties and negatives.
  •  

SUMMARY 

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ?     Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.     

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.c

My TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies:  (As of 8/21).

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  August 19,  a reasonable risk is 16,228; a more extreme risk is 15,713. Near-term upside potential is 17,083.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bulls “Must” Follow Through

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA:  16,285
S&P 500:  1,940
Nasdaq  Comp. 4,697
Russell 2000:   1,132

Thursday:  Aug. 27, 2015   9:07 a.m.

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

CONCLUSION: 

     I saw a lot of “wary” buying yesterday when it became obvious the market would not tank in the final hour of trading like it did Tuesday.

     The three-day, 11.4%  plunge (Thursday – Monday) rattled confidence, but it was mostly dismissed as a product of China’s woes and High Frequency Trading, etc..

     A Tuesday rebound was driven back, but yesterday’s rally succeeded, with the help from comments by N.Y. Fed’s William Dudley assuring the Street a September 16 bump in interest rates was unlikely.

     I would think the BIG money and institutions would be buying everything in sight, and paying up for stocks selling a big discounts from a week ago.

     TODAY:

     The Fed had its say, that issue is off the table and China’s efforts to stabilize its stock markets appears to be working, so  I would expect the BIG money and institutional investors to step in  and buy aggressively.

     If they don’t – LOOK OUT !

      RESISTANCE starts:  DJIA: 16,617; S&P 500: 1,980; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,790.

      There is absolutely no room for a rally failure today – none.    

 NEWS ENVIRONMENT    

        The following news was a contributor, though most of these issues have been with us for weeks/months.  A breakdown to  a “comfort level” was justified, but not that extreme.  The system is still broken.

-Chinese stock markets worst drop since 2007

-European stocks on verge of bear market (Germany’s DAX off 20%)

-U.S. stocks gapping down

-Commodities at 16-year low.

-currency meltdown

-No one has a clue when the Fed will bump interest rates, including the Fed

-Brent oil below $43, WTI oil below $38.

      NOTE: Some of the Street’s pundits are arguing that this market behavior is unreasonable since the U.S. economy is doing well, if not great. Bear in mind, the stock market has historically been an early warning signal for the beginning of a recession, leading by as little as two months and as much as  13 months.
………………………………………………………………………………

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.
……………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but in a correction  into the fall.
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market reversed Tuesday after quick plunge and will be rebounding into resistance (again).
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Having broken major support levels, the market is probing for a level that discounts uncertainties and negatives.
  •  

SUMMARY 

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ?     Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.     

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.c

My TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies:  (As of 8/21).

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  August 19,  a reasonable risk is 16,228; a more extreme risk is 15,713. Near-term upside potential is 17,083.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Buying Panic…….or Head Fake

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA:  15,66S&P 500:  1,867
Nasdaq  Comp. 4,506:
Russell 2000:   1,105

Wednesday:  Aug. 26, 2015   9:05 a.m.

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

CONCLUSION: 

    The major market averages ran into a wall yesterday shortly after a “gap” open and trailed off for the rest of the day with an accelerated sell off at the close.

    However, buyers showed up in pre-market futures trading today.

    If this confirms a “bottom” Monday, we will have a buyers panic similar to the selling panic Monday.

    But, it really isn’t that easy.

    Resistance will have to be overcome at DJIA: 16,312; S&P 500: 1,948; Nasdaq Comp: 4,690.  As a market rebounds after Monday’s terrifying plunge, it encounters sellers, investors who think higher prices are a “gift” and an opportunity to get out before the market goes down again. There are also sellers who bought in at Monday’s lows and are clipping a quick profit.

    Today, should tell us a lot about the BIG money. It can run the table..

     A rally failure would strongly indicate another ugly plunge.

TODAY:

     As usual, I do not like buying a gap open, since odds are high you will catch the highs for the day, just like yesterday.

     This is a powerful open. Technically, the market should have continued the slide we saw at yesterday’s close.

     Institutions must like what they saw this morning.

     Yesterday’s “Easy Does It” was spot on.

     I say the same for today, but odds are better today’s rally will follow through.

     No room for a rally failure. Today is critical.

 NEWS ENVIRONMENT    

        The following news was a contributor, though most of these issues have been with us for weeks/months.  A breakdown to  a “comfort level” was justified, but not that extreme.  The system is still broken.

-Chinese stock markets worst drop since 2007

-European stocks on verge of bear market (Germany’s DAX off 20%)

-U.S. stocks gapping down

-Commodities at 16-year low.

-currency meltdown

-No one has a clue when the Fed will bump interest rates, including the Fed

-Brent oil below $43, WTI oil below $38.

      NOTE: Some of the Street’s pundits are arguing that this market behavior is unreasonable since the U.S. economy is doing well, if not great. Bear in mind, the stock market has historically been an early warning signal for the beginning of a recession, leading by as little as two months and as much as  13 months.

………………………………………………………………………………

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.
……………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but in a correction  into the fall.
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market reversed Tuesday after quick plunge and will be rebounding into resistance (again).
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Having broken major support levels, the market is probing for a level that discounts uncertainties and negatives.
  •  

SUMMARY 

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ?     Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.     

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.c

My TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies:  (As of 8/21).

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  August 19,  a reasonable risk is 16,228; a more extreme risk is 15,713. Near-term upside potential is 17,083.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trader’s Buy ! Risks High

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 16,459
S&P 500: 1,970
Nasdaq  Comp.4,706
Russell 2000: 1,156

Monday:  Aug. 24, 2015   9:05 a.m.

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

CONCLUSION: 

      Panic !  Suddenly everyone wants out and the exit is too narrow for them to do so without crushing stock prices.

      The news looks like it does at bear market bottoms after a prolonged slump.

-Chinese stock markets worst drop since 2007

-European stocks on verge of bear market (Germany’s DAX off 20%)

-U.S. stocks gapping down

-Commodities at 16-year low.

-currency meltdown

-No one has a clue when the Fed will bump interest rates, including the Fed

-Brent oil below $45, WTI oil below $40

-Quotes on Street: “Wall Street Preps for meltdown.”  “Downturn not over yet”

Does that sound like PANIC ?  or OPPORTUNITY ?

       TODAY: I continue to believe this decline will find its bottom in September/October, but am prepared to change that  to August if prices totally collapse this month.   

       When the dust settles, I expect part of the blame for such a sharp freefall will be computerized trading which confirms my long-held belief, this is all a casino for hot, highly leveraged  money seeking a fraction of a point on huge positions.

      This market acts like the bloodbaths of 1987 and the 2010 “flash crash,” both computer driven.

       Both set up great buying opportunities, because computer algorithmic decisions were inferior to decisions a human brain could make based on unfolding events.

       My point is, much of this plunge may be without merit.

       Expect extreme plunges and rallies as the market searches for a level that discounts a host of uncertainties, mostly global.

       AGAIN, THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A OUTRIGHT UGLY CORRECTION AND A BEAR MARKET IS WHAT NEW NEGATIVES HIT IT WHEN IT IS ATTEMPTING TO TURN AROUND AFTER AN 8%-14% PLUNGE.

       Traders can buy the open, but sit close to the exits.  We have passed the “ouch” point” and are headed for the “I can’t stand it anymore” point where just about everyone sells out, thus creating a climactic plunge.

      Human nature will be against anyone who is even thinking of buying. These markets always look like they can go lower.

      The BIG money can move in as stock prices plunge. For investors with limited cash, it is tougher. Mutual funds offer diversification, but got hammered Friday.

      Partial positions offer a chance to buy in with less risk than loading up.   

POSSIBLE SCENARIO:  THE DJIA TO OPEN 600 POINTS LOWER FOLLOWED BY A BOUNCE THEN ANOTHER DROP TO TEST THE OPEN, FOLLOWED BY A   REBOUND TO DJIA 16,440; S&P 500: 1969; NASDAQ COMP 4,690.                          

………………………………………………………………………………

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.
……………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but in a correction  into the fall.
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market reversed Tuesday after quick plunge and will be rebounding into resistance (again).
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Having broken major support levels, the market is probing for a level that discounts uncertainties and negatives.
  •  

SUMMARY 

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ?     Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.     

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.c

My TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies:  (As of 8/21).

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  August 19,  a reasonable risk is 16,228; a more extreme risk is 15,713. Near-term upside potential is 17,083.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Devaluation of the Chinese yuan

-U.S. economy – rebound Q3 and Q4 ?

-Fed increase in interest rates

-Potential armed conflict Korea

-Greece (again)c

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rallies Risky ! Don’t Chase

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 16,990
S&P 500: 2,035
Nasdaq  Comp.4,877
Russell 2000: 1,172

Friday:  Aug. 21, 2015   9:09 a.m.

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

CONCLUSION: 

       No one has a clue when the Fed will bump interest rates, including the Fed, which is beginning to create a serious credibility problem. For months, years, all the Street needed as a prompt to buy was for indications that the Fed was not ready to raise interest rates.

       Not so this time around.  The minutes for the July FOMC meeting released Wednesday assured the Street  a rate increase was not imminent.

       The response was different this time –  selling.

       What a silly drumbeat to march to every month. Really, the Street has cheered soft economic data all this time since it has meant a delay in a rate increase.

        Other factors took a back seat to Fed “watch.”

        Suddenly, the Street must focus more on  the U.S. economy and a host of global issues.

        Then too, there is the “technical” factor – the fact the market averages have broken down from a 7-month trading range and are now probing for a level that discounts new negatives and uncertainties.      

       TODAY: I continue to believe this decline will find its bottom in September/October, but am prepared to change that  to August if prices totally collapse this month. The DJIA and S&P 500 have broken down from wide, wide trading ranges in effect for 6 months. 

        The extent of this plunge depends on what new negatives hit the market as it is trying to turn back up.

         Expect a lower open followed by an attempt to rebound from DJIA 6,943; S&P 500: 2,029; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,863.  That rebound should run into resistance  at 17,067; S&P 500: 2,047; 4,903.

         Traders will have to be nimble today to clip a profit. Selected oil stocks should offer a trading opportunity, though short-lived. 

         A lot of stocks have been crushed in recent weeks, and partial positions warranted.

         There are sellers waiting for a rebound, so a sustained move up at this time is pre-mature.

………………………………………………………………………………

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.
……………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but vulnerable to a continued correction/consolidation into the fall
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market reversed Tuesday after quick plunge and will be rebounding into resistance (again).
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Having broken major support levels, the market is probing for a level that discounts uncertainties and negatives.
  •  

SUMMARY 

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ?     Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.     

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.c

My TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies:  (As of 8/19).

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  August 19,  a reasonable risk is 16,709; a more extreme risk is 16,160. Near-term upside potential is 16983.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Devaluation of the Chinese yuan

-U.S. economy – rebound Q3 and Q4 ?

-Fed increase in interest rates

-Potential armed conflict korea

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Street In a Quandary – Seeks New Levels

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,348
S&P 500: 2,079
Nasdaq  Comp.5,019:
Russell 2000: 1,202

Thursday,  Aug. 20, 2015   9:09 a.m.

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

CONCLUSION: 

      Normal, easily forgotten, corrections can develop into ugly ones if new negatives crop up as the expected rebound is about to develop. The same can happen if existing negatives suddenly worsen.

       Oil prices continue to drop, China’s stock markets tumble further and the yuan is devalued, Europe’s economic woes increase, and international hotspots (mid-east, Korea) heat up.

        All this makes it difficult for the Street to find a level where it feels comfortable buying in size.

       No one has a clue when the Fed will bump interest rates, including the Fed, which is beginning to create a serious credibility problem.

       TODAYOdds are increasing that the market has to probe lower until that level is found  and that process can get SCARY !

        First you hit the “ouch” point where the decline hurts enough to move everyone to the exits with some bailing out.

        That yields to the “I can’t stand it anymore” point where everyone hits the exit absolutely sure the market will crash.  

        That’s the buying juncture, though human nature (fear) prevent most investors from buying.

        The Bulls are still trying to hold the line, making forays into the market, but unable to follow through.

        Pre-market trading indicates a soft open, which may even turn into a rally.

Unless that rally is a powerhouse with heavy volume, it will fail and the market will decline once again.

        SUPPORT: DJIA:17,270: S&P 500: 2,068; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,001

        RESISTANCE: DJIA 17, 458; S&P 500: 2,089; Nasdaq Comp.:5,051

………………………………………………………………………………

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.
……………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but vulnerable to a continued correction/consolidation into the fall
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market reversed Tuesday after quick plunge and will be rebounding into resistance (again).
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Big week for economic reports plus FOMC meeting and a report (no press conference) at 2:00 Wednesday.
  •  

SUMMARY 

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ? So far, results are mixed. Yesterday’s news indicates softness in chain store sales and Consumer Confidence, but a bit of strength in PMI Services  and good strength in Richmond Fed Manufacturing.

     Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.   

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.c

My TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies:  (As of 8/1).

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  August 19,  a reasonable risk is 17,150; a more extreme risk is 1,943. Near-term upside potential is 17,520. Friday’s stability improved the low/high numbers here.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Devaluation of the Chinese yuan

-U.S. economy – rebound Q3 and Q4 ?

-Fed increase in interest rates

-Potential armed conflict korea

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Buyers Hit a Wall Yesterday

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,511
S&P 500
: 2,093
Nasdaq  Comp.: 5,059  
Russell 2000: 1,214

Wednesday,  Aug. 19, 2015   9:09 a.m.

///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

TODAY: 

     Yesterday the Bulls attacked overhead supply and ran into a wall with all four market averages closing close to their lows for the day.

      What happened ?

       The Bulls simply didn’t have the momentum (or will) to push up through sellers that showed up.  The news front is unchanged,  this is pretty much a matter of  a lack of lack of follow through by both Bulls and Bears at certain levels, ergo volatility.  This kind of market action is only tradable by traders with huge positions where only fractions of a point are needed to clip a profit.

       A soft open is expected today. If the Bulls are serious, they will be buyersand the market will find support at DJIA:17,416 ; S&P 500:2,084; Nasdaq Comp. : 5,032.

        A break below DJIA 17,341; S&P 500: 2,079; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,012 would raise the odds of another leg down.

………………………………………………………………………………

NOTE: Support and resistance levelcs are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.
……………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but vulnerable to a continued correction/consolidation into the fall
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market reversed Tuesday after quick plunge and will be rebounding into resistance (again).
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Big week for economic reports plus FOMC meeting and a report (no press conference) at 2:00 Wednesday.
  •  

SUMMARY 

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ? So far, results are mixed. Yesterday’s news indicates softness in chain store sales and Consumer Confidence, but a bit of strength in PMI Services  and good strength in Richmond Fed Manufacturing.

     Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.    

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.c

My TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies:  (As of 8/11).

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  August 12,  a reasonable risk is 17,357; a more extreme risk is 17,233. Near-term upside potential is 17,790. Friday’s stability improved the low/high numbers here.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Devaluation of the Chinese yuan

-U.S. economy – rebound Q3 and Q4 ?

-Fed increase in interest rates

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Market Attacking Overhead Supply

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,545
S&P 500: 2,102
Nasdaq  Comp.: 5,091 
Russell 2000: 1,225

Tuesday,  Aug. 18, 2015   9:09 a.m.

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

TODAY: 

    In face of  numerous uncertainties, the bulls stepped in once again, this time impressively because they reversed a slide at the open and pressed stocks higher throughout the day ending on a firm note.

     The market’s strength could be relief that soft economies abroad, international currency instability    and soft earnings guidance has assured the Street the Fed won’t raise interest rates next month.

    Bears were heartened by the ugly plunge in the Empire State Manufacturing Index. Bulls heartened by an impressive jump in the Housing Market Index and e-commerce retail sales, which grew 14.1% (Y/Y) vs a total retail sales increase of 1.0%.

     Today’s open will be  mixed-to-down, testing the bull’s appetite for stocks yet again with buyers entering at:

     SUPPORT:  DJIA: 17,534; S&P 500: 2,100 ; Nasdaq Comp. : 5,085.

     RESISTANCE:   DJIA: 17,603; S&P 500: 2,108; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,106.

NOTE: A surge by the Bulls once again this morning can run stocks up beyond these levels to  DJIA: 17,669; S&P 500: 2,114; Nasdaq Comp: 5,127.

………………………………………………………………………………

NOTE: Support and resistance levelcs are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.
……………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but vulnerable to a continued correction/consolidation into the fall
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market reversed Tuesday after quick plunge and will be rebounding into resistance (again).
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Big week for economic reports plus FOMC meeting and a report (no press conference) at 2:00 Wednesday.
  •  

SUMMARY 

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ? So far, results are mixed. Yesterday’s news indicates softness in chain store sales and Consumer Confidence, but a bit of strength in PMI Services  and good strength in Richmond Fed Manufacturing.

     Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.    

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.c

My TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies:  (As of 8/11).

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  August 12,  a reasonable risk is 17,357; a more extreme risk is 17,233. Near-term upside potential is 17,790. Friday’s stability improved the low/high numbers here.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Devaluation of the Chinese yuan

-U.S. economy – rebound Q3 and Q4 ?

-Fed increase in interest rates

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Once Again, Bulls Put to the Test

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,477
S&P 500
: 2,091
Nasdaq  Comp.5,048:
Russell 2000: 1,212

Monday,  Aug. 17, 2015   9:09 a.m.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

TODAY: 

    The Bulls did show up Friday and it was a good day with stocks closing at the highs for the day.  But it was  not a BIG day.  The Bulls will have their work cut  out for them at slightly higher levels.

    A mixed-to-soft open should be tempting to the bulls, though this market is not without uncertainties such as: sluggish global economies, especially China, soft  guidance on corporate earnings; uncertainty on the timing of a Fed increase in interest rates, a slump in commodity prices that generally accompany (lead) economic recoveries,  “pricey” stock valuations.

     If the Bulls are going to override those uncertainties, they will have to step in  now.  This is a case where it smarter to let the market tell you where its strength lies rather than to guess.

     For weeks, I have projected a buying opportunity in the fall (Sept./Oct.), and still see that happening.    

………………………………………………………………………………

 

RESISTANCE:  If the bulls can reverse a soft open, look for  jump to DJIA: 17,587; S&P 500: 2,103; Nasdaq Comp: 5,082.    

SUPPORT: DJIA:17,375; S&P 500: 2,079; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,018.

      ………………………………………………………………………………..

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.
……………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but vulnerable to a continued correction/consolidation into the fall
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in, market reversed Tuesday after quick plunge and will be rebounding into resistance (again).
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Big week for economic reports plus FOMC meeting and a report (no press conference) at 2:00 Wednesday.
  •  

SUMMARY 

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ? So far, results are mixed. Yesterday’s news indicates softness in chain store sales and Consumer Confidence, but a bit of strength in PMI Services  and good strength in Richmond Fed Manufacturing.

     Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.    

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.c

My TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  of the 30 DJIA Companies:  (As of 8/11).

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels. This gives me an internal check on the DJIA itself, especially if certain higher priced stocks are distorting the averages,
     As of  August 12,  a reasonable risk is 17,357; a more extreme risk is 17,233. Near-term upside potential is 17,790. Friday’s stability improved the low/high numbers here.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Devaluation of the Chinese yuan

-U.S. economy – rebound Q3 and Q4 ?

-Fed increase in interest rates

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk