Street Opts for More Risk – Targets Nasdaq Stocks

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,745
S&P 500: 2,108
Nasdaq  Comp.5,135:
Russell 2000: 1,232

Friday,  July 31, 2015   8:03 a.m.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

TODAY :

       Having recouped more than half of last week’s loss, the stock market is running into headwinds, as investors who sold some of their positions prior to the plunge are selling more now. Then too, some traders who bought at lower prices Monday and Tuesday are clipping a quick profits.

    We are well into Q2 earnings and the Street should be getting a read on forthcoming quarters. If they like what they see, the overhead supply should not be able to stop the market’s advance. .

     A pickup in the economy here would hasten a Fed bump up in interest rates. So far the jury is out. Q2 GDP was reported this morning, an annualized gain of 2.3%, a bit short of  Street estimates of 2.6%.  These numbers can’t be taken too seriously

Since they are often revised the following month as more details are known. Let’s cut the economy some slack on GDP and track individual economic indicators going forward.

     Stocks should be able to manage a further push up today, though the gain may be difficult to hold. Nasdaq stocks were stronger yesterday than the mainstream blue chips, an indication the Street is opting for more risk in an effort to achieve greater gins.

     If this rally fails the market will  test of Monday’s lows (DJIA: 17,399; S&P500: 2,063; Nasdaq Comp.:5,025.

………………………………………………………………………………

RESISTANCE: The market will be mixed at the open. An extension of this week’s rally would  carry to DJIA:17,847;  S&P 500: 2,118 ; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,159

SUPPORT today: DJIA:17,677; S&P 500:2,098  ; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,105.

………………………………………………………………………………..

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.
……………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but vulnerable to a continued correction/consolidation into the fall
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in and overhead supply is building
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Big week for economic reports plus FOMC meeting and a report (no press conference) at 2:00 Wednesday.

SUMMARY  (No change)

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ? So far, results are mixed. Yesterday’s news indicates softness in chain store sales and Consumer Confidence, but a bit of strength in PMI Services  and good strength in Richmond Fed Manufacturing.

     Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.

      FactSet projects a year/year decline of 4.5% for Q2 this year, or a 2.1% drop in Q2 alone. The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 16.5, above the 5-year average of 13.9 and 10-year average of 14.1.  There are disappointments, including Materials, Energy, Industrials, Telecom, Healthcare, Tech and Utilities, according to FactSet research (www.factset.com)    

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

THE FED:

      FOMC meeting this week with a report (no press conference) on Wednesday at 2:00 pm.

      The guessing game continues – Will the Fed bump interest rates up in September, or later ?

      Obviously, their decision will key on the strength of the U.S. economy where housing is taking the lead and now consumer expectations are soaring.

…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  July 27,  a reasonable risk is 17,357; a more extreme risk is 17,083 The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 17.898.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
Q2 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Recent strength in employment and housing industry shifting concern from a weakening in the U.S. economy to enough strength to prompt an early bump up in interest rates.

-Greece:  I DON’T  THINK GREECE WILL BE IN THE EURO A YEAR FROM NOW

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tug of War Within No Man’s Land

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,751
S&P 500: 2,108
Nasdaq  Comp.5,111:
Russell 2000: 1,229

Thursday,  July 30, 2015   9:03 a.m.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

TODAY :

    Monday and Tuesday the market  rebounded within an established trading range  after a sharp sell off last week.   Having recouped more than half of last week’s loss, stocks should encounter selling. Pre-market futures activity suggest a soft open.  Trading in the first 45 minutes today must be watched carefully. Failure to sell off would encourage bulls to step in.

    We are well into Q2 earnings and the Street should be getting a read on forthcoming quarters. If they like what they see, the overhead supply should not be able to stop the market’s advance. .

     A pickup in the economy here would hasten a Fed bump up in interest rates. So far the jury is out. Q2 GDP was reported this morning, an annualized gain of 2.3%, a bit short of  Street estimates of 2.6%.  These numbers can’t be taken too seriously

Since they are often revised the following month as more details are known. Let’s cut the economy some slack on GDP and track individual economic indicators going forward.

     After  a rally attempt today, odds favor a test of Monday’s lows (DJIA: 17,399; S&P500: 2,063; Nasdaq Comp.:5,025.

………………………………………………………………………………

RESISTANCE today starts at DJIA:17,849 ;  S&P 500: 2,119 ; Nasdaq Comp.:5,144

SUPPORT today: DJIA:17,685; S&P 500: 2,101; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,089.

The market should be able to punch a bit higher here before a test of  Monday’s lows.

………………………………………………………………………………..

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.
……………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Bullish but vulnerable to a continued correction/consolidation into the fall
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in and overhead supply is building
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Big week for economic reports plus FOMC meeting and a report (no press conference) at 2:00 Wednesday.
  •  

SUMMARY  (No change)

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ? So far, results are mixed. Yesterday’s news indicates softness in chain store sales and Consumer Confidence, but a bit of strength in PMI Services  and good strength in Richmond Fed Manufacturing.

     Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.

      FactSet projects a year/year decline of 4.5% for Q2 this year, or a 2.1% drop in Q2 alone. The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 16.5, above the 5-year average of 13.9 and 10-year average of 14.1.  There are disappointments, including Materials, Energy, Industrials, Telecom, Healthcare, Tech and Utilities, according to FactSet research (www.factset.com) 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

THE FED:

      FOMC meeting this week with a report (no press conference) on Wednesday at 2:00 pm.

      The guessing game continues – Will the Fed bump interest rates up in September, or later ?

      Obviously, their decision will key on the strength of the U.S. economy where housing is taking the lead and now consumer expectations are soaring.

…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  July 27,  a reasonable risk is 17,357; a more extreme risk is 17,083 The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 17.898.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
Q2 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Recent strength in employment and housing industry shifting concern from a weakening in the U.S. economy to enough strength to prompt an early bump up in interest rates.

-Greece:  I DON’T  THINK GREECE WILL BE IN THE EURO A YEAR FROM NOW

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bulls Need to Blow Through Resistance Now

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,630
S&P 500: 2,093
Nasdaq  Comp.5,089
Russell 2000: 1,224

Wednesday,  July 29, 2015   8:15 a.m.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

TODAY :

     No press conference following the FOMC meeting tomorrow at 2:00 p.m., so the only good news that can be expected is that which the Street parses out of language in the Fed’s report.

     Stock Index Futures are not signaling a big move in the market either way, which is OK since the market posted healthy gains yesterday.  Resistance will begin to show up on any move higher from these levels.

      The Bulls will have to be “reaching” for stocks here, aggressively taking out sell orders at higher prices in order for the market to signal the sell off between July 20 and 27 is over.

       No room for rally failures.                                                            

………………………………………………………………………………

RESISTANCE today starts at DJIA:17,717 ;  S&P 500: 2,103 ; Nasdaq Comp.:5,113

SUPPORT today: DJIA:17,576; S&P 500: 2,085; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,070.

………………………………………………………………………………..

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.
……………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Market is in correction mode after sharp run up where it hit a wall. 
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in and overhead supply is building
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Big week for economic reports plus FOMC meeting and a report (no press conference) at 2:00 Wednesday.
  •  

SUMMARY  (No change)

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ? So far, results are mixed. Yesterday’s news indicates softness in chain store sales and Consumer Confidence, but a bit of strength in PMI Services  and good strength in Richmond Fed Manufacturing.

     Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.

      FactSet projects a year/year decline of 4.5% for Q2 this year, or a 2.1% drop in Q2 alone. The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 16.5, above the 5-year average of 13.9 and 10-year average of 14.1.  There are disappointments, including Materials, Energy, Industrials, Telecom, Healthcare, Tech and Utilities, according to FactSet research (www.factset.com)  

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

THE FED:

      FOMC meeting this week with a report (no press conference) on Wednesday at 2:00 pm.

      The guessing game continues – Will the Fed bump interest rates up in September, or later ?

      Obviously, their decision will key on the strength of the U.S. economy where housing is taking the lead and now consumer expectations are soaring.

…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  July 27,  a reasonable risk is 17,357; a more extreme risk is 17,083 The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 17.898.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
Q2 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Recent strength in employment and housing industry shifting concern from a weakening in the U.S. economy to enough strength to prompt an early bump up in interest rates.

-Greece:  I DON’T  THINK GREECE WILL BE IN THE EURO A YEAR FROM NOW

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rally Must Attract Aggressive Buyers

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,440
S&P 500: 2,067
Nasdaq  Comp.5,039:
Russell 2000: 1,214

Tuesday,  July 28, 2015   8:15 a.m.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

TODAY :

      At press time here, it looks like a positive open with an attempt at a recovery of some or all of what has been lost in the last  five days.   

      A rally here would be highly critical.   It may fizzle out in a day or two, failing to attract any serious buying with stocks plunging lower to a more attractive level.

      It may recoup one-third to one-half of the ground lost in the last five days, then test this week’s lows.

      It may keep going up to challenge new all-time highs, as it has on six occasions this year.

      I told traders  to look for a buying opportunity yesterday.  If they are nimble, they will sell if they are unimpressed with today’s rally of its follow through this week.

     I can see stability of sorts here and some effort to recoup ground lost, but this market needs leadership. Aside from housing, it lacks it, so far.

     No press conference following the FOMC meeting tomorrow at 2:00 p.m., so the only good news that can be expected is that which the Street parses out of language in the Fed’s report.

………………………………………………………………………………

RESISTANCE today starts at DJIA:17,553 ;  S&P 500: 2,081 ; Nasdaq Comp.:5,070

SUPPORT today: DJIA:17,407; S&P 500: 2,062; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,033.

These are minor support levels. If the market fails to follow through on a positive open by 11:30, it could cut through these levels with ease with a nasty plunge to follow.

………………………………………………………………………………..

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.
……………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Market is in correction mode after sharp run up where it hit a wall.  For the market to hold on to its positive mode, this correction must find buyers a smidge below current levels (see :support” above)  Then too, any rally from here must be robust. No room for rally failures.
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in and overhead supply is building
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Big week for economic reports plus FOMC meeting and a report (no press conference) at 2:00 Wednesday.
  •  

SUMMARY  (No change)

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ?

     Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.

      FactSet projects a year/year decline of 4.5% for Q2 this year, or a 2.1% drop in Q2 alone. The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 16.5, above the 5-year average of 13.9 and 10-year average of 14.1.  There are disappointments, including Materials, Energy, Industrials, Telecom, Healthcare, Tech and Utilities, according to FactSet research (www.factset.com)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

THE FED:

      FOMC meeting this week with a report (no press conference) on Wednesday at 2:00 pm.

      The guessing game continues – Will the Fed bump interest rates up in September, or later ?

      Obviously, their decision will key on the strength of the U.S. economy where housing is taking the lead and now consumer expectations are soaring.

…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  July 27,  a reasonable risk is 17,357; a more extreme risk is 17,083 The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 17.898.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
Q2 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Recent strength in employment and housing industry shifting concern from a weakening in the U.S. economy to enough strength to prompt an early bump up in interest rates.

-Greece:  I DON’T  THINK GREECE WILL BE IN THE EURO A YEAR FROM NOW

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rally After Bounce This Week Must Be Robust

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,568
S&P 500: 2,079
Nasdaq  Comp.: 5,088
Russell 2000: 1,225

Monday,  July 27, 2015   8:49 a.m.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

TODAY :

      More downside as market probes for a level where enough buyers enter to absorb selling. Basic stuff  – supply/demand !

      Friday, I said any rally must be robust or it is suspicious. Two pathetic rally  attempts failed and stocks closed lower.

      Rallies can tell us a lot about the balance or lack of it between buyers and sellers. There must be persistent buying to give it credibility.

      The market should attempt to rally from lower levels today or by Wednesday. That will be one of the most critical rally attempts this year, because unlike the dozen that preceded it this year, it could fail and set the stage for an ugly correction lasting into the fall.

      The difference between a moderate 3% – 4% correction and a much bigger one of 6% – 12% is if unexpected bad news hits the market as it is making that turn up. 

     The Chinese market is getting hammered, but that is after a big bounce. The Fed’s FOMC meets this week with its minutes announced Wednesday (2:00 p.m.).  With no Yellen press conference following, I doubt anything important will come out of that. Meeting.

      Based on my technical analysis of each of the 30 Dow industrials the current upside for the Dow is lower, as well as support levels (see below).

      Traders can look for buying opportunities today and this week, but bail if a rally is unimpressive. 

………………………………………………………………………………

RESISTANCE today starts at DJIA:17,596 ;  S&P 500: 2,081 ; Nasdaq Comp.:5,096

SUPPORT today: DJIA:17,396; S&P 500: 2.063; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,039  .

………………………………………………………………………………..

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.
……………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Market is in correction mode after sharp run up where it hit a wall.  For the market to hold on to its positive mode, this correction must find buyers a smidge below current levels (see :support” above)  Then too, any rally from here must be robust. No room for rally failures.
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in and overhead supply is building
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION:  Big week for economic reports plus FOMC meeting and a report (no press conference) at 2:00 Wednesday.
  •  

SUMMARY  (No change)

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ?

     Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.

      FactSet projects a year/year decline of 4.5% for Q2 this year, or a 2.1% drop in Q2 alone. The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 16.5, above the 5-year average of 13.9 and 10-year average of 14.1.  There are disappointments, including Materials, Energy, Industrials, Telecom, Healthcare, Tech and Utilities, according to FactSet research (www.factset.com)    

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

THE FED;\

      FOMC meeting this week with a report (no press conference) on Wednesday at 2:00 pm.c

      The guessing game continues – Will the Fed bump interest rates up in September, or later ?

      Obviously, their decision will key on the strength of the U.S. economy where housing is taking the lead and now consumer expectations are soaring.

…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  July 24,  a reasonable risk is 117,364; a more extreme risk is 16,936 The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 18,025.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
Q2 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Recent strength in employment and housing industry shifting concern from a weakening in the U.S. economy to enough strength to prompt an early bump up in interest rates.

-Greece:  I DON’T  THINK GREECE WILL BE IN THE EURO A YEAR FROM NOW

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Any Rally Here Must Be Robust

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,731
S&P 500: 2,102
Nasdaq  Comp.: 5,146
Russell 2000: 1,244

Friday,  July 24, 2015   8:28 a.m.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

TODAY: Looks like a mixed open. Any rally here must be robust, or it is suspicious.  Another spike down is needed to clear the air before any chance of a meaningful recovery.

     The Street has not yet showed its hand on earnings, Q2 and especially projections/guidance for coming quarters. Traders can place bids below the market in hopes of catching a rally, but sit close to the exits in the event this slide in prices gains momentum. 

………………………………………………………………………………

RESISTANCE today starts at DJIA ;17,78;  S&P 500: 2,107 ; Nasdaq Comp.:5,161

SUPPORT today:  DJIA: 17,647; S&P 500:2,102; Nasdaq Comp.:.  5,087.

………………………………………………………………………………..

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to reverse or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily and based on my application of technical analysis.
……………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET: Market is in correction mode after sharp run up where it hit a wall.  For the market to hold on to its positive mode, this correction must find buyers a smidge below current levels (see :support” above)  Then too, any rally from here must be robust. No room for rally failures.
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in and overhead supply is building
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION: Price/earnings valuations are above the “norm,” the economy is iffy, and corporate earnings in Q2 will be down. While we need another week or so to get a feel for how the Street  will react to Q2 earnings, a cash reserve is warranted.

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

SUMMARY  (No change)

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ?

     Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.

      Q2 earnings are coming in and suggest the Street is “over” estimating Q2 and beyond.  Just a feeling I have.  FactSet Research sees year-over-year  for Q2  coming in as a decline of 4.5% with a return to growth developing in Q4 of close to +4.2%. It’s the latter that could sink stocks into an ugly slide.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

THE FED

      The guessing game continues – Will the Fed bump interest rates up in September, or later ?

      Obviously, their decision will key on the strength of the U.S. economy where housing is taking the lead and now consumer expectations are soaring.

…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  July 16,  a reasonable risk is 18,000c; a more extreme risk is 17,950 The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 18,329. Yesterday, the DJIA broke below 17,950, but 120 points of that was IBM’s loss. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
Q2 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Recent strength in employment and housing industry shifting concern from a weakening in the U.S. economy to enough strength to prompt an early bump up in interest rates.

-Greece:  I DON’T  THINK GREECE WILL BE IN THE EURO A YEAR FROM NOW

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bulls Have Lot of Overhead Supply to Work Through

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,851
S&P 500: 2,114
Nasdaq  Comp.5,171:
Russell 2000: 1,254

Thursday,  July 23, 2015   8:28 a.m.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

TODAY:

          The correction underway now will seek a comfort level above  DJIA 17,800 (S&P 500: 2,100, Nasdaq Comp.: 5,100), as it factors in Q2 earnings and resulting changes in Q3 estimates and guidance.

     Watch any rally attempts for lack of oomph.  There is overhead supply at these levels. Any drop off in buyers give the bears a chance to hammer bids.

Too many negative “surprises” with Q2 earnings would add to their momentum.  This is like tip-toeing through a minefield.  Market needs leadership.

 ………………………………………………………………………………

RESISTANCE today starts at DJIA 17,917; S&P 500: 2,120; Nasdaq Comp.:5,193

SUPPORT today:   DJIA:17,826 ; S&P 500:2,111  ; Nasdaq Comp.:5,163.  This is questionable support. A break below DJIA: 17,807; S&P 500: 2,110; Nasdaq Comp.:5,159 raises odds of  a sharp drop.

………………………………………………………………………………..

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to turn back or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily.
……………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET:  Stocks have skidded to a halt, in face of a flow of  Q2 earnings. 
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in and overhead supply is building
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25% (up 5%)
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION: The Street does not want this party to end even though valuations are above the “norm,” the economy is iffy, and corporate earnings in Q2 will be down. While we need another week or so to get a feel for how the Street  will react to Q2 earnings, a cash reserve is warranted, since I AM GETTING THE IMPRESSION THE STREET’S ESTIMATES ARE RUNNING ON THE HIGH SIDE.

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

SUMMARY  (No change)

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ?

     Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.

      Q2 earnings are coming in and suggest the Street is “over” estimating Q2 and beyond.  Just a feeling I have.  FactSet Research sees year-over-year  for Q2  coming in as a decline of 4.5% with a return to growth developing in Q4 of close to +4.2%. It’s the latter that could sink stocks into an ugly slide.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

THE FED

      The guessing game continues – Will the Fed bump interest rates up in September, or later ?

      Obviously, their decision will key on the strength of the U.S. economy where housing is taking the lead and now consumer expectations are soaring.

…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  July 16,  a reasonable risk is 18,000c; a more extreme risk is 17,950 The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 18,329. Yesterday, the DJIA broke below 17,950, but 120 points of that was IBM’s loss. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

RECOMMENDATION:  InvesTech Research is the finest advisory I have tracked in more than 30 years.  Plain talk, but solidly based indicators, great historical data to back positions.  Monthly, 8 pages, $295/year, worth every penny. Ask for copy (406)862-7777

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
Q2 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Recent strength in employment and housing industry shifting concern from a weakening in the U.S. economy to enough strength to prompt an early bump up in interest rates.

-Greece:  I DON’T  THINK GREECE WILL BE IN THE EURO A YEAR FROM NOW

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Market NEEDS Leadership !

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,919
S&P 500: 2,119
Nasdaq  Comp.: 5,208
Russell 2000: 1,254

Wednesday,  July 22, 2015   8:28 a.m.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

TODAY:

     Overhead supply  put a lid on stocks starting last Thursday.  It all looks innocent even with yesterday’s drop in the DJIA, which lost 181 points (1.00%). But,  120 points of that loss was in two stocks (IBM -10.10 and United Tech :UTX -7.77), all the while the S&P 500 gave up only0.43% and Nasdaq Comp. 0.21%.
     The correction underway now will seek a comfort level above  DJIA 17,800 (S&P 500: 2,100, Nasdaq Comp.: 5,100), as it factors in Q2 earnings and resulting changes in Q3 estimates and guidance.

     Watch any rally attempts for lack of oomph.  There is overhead supply at these levels. Any drop off in buyers give the bears a chance to hammer bids.

Too many negative “surprises” with Q2 earnings would add to their momentum. Market needs leadership.

 ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

RESISTANCE today: The market will open on the downside. A one-day reversal would at  DJIA: 17,967; S&P 500:2,125; Nasdaq Comp.:5,221. That does not seem likely !

SUPPORT today:   DJIA:17,801 ; S&P 500: 2,133 ; Nasdaq Comp.:5,173.
The DJIA will open 69 points lower just on drops in Apple AAPL: -8.50) and Microsoft (MSFT: -1.90) alone.

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to turn back or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily.
……………………………………………………………………………………

  • STATUS OF MARKET:  Stocks have skidded to a halt, in face of a flow of  Q2 earnings. 
  • OPPORTUNITY: Volatility has set in and overhead supply is building
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25% (up 5%)
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings; technical underpinnings weakening
  • CONCLUSION: The Street does not want this party to end even though valuations are above the “norm,” the economy is iffy, and corporate earnings in Q2 will be down. While we need another week or so to get a feel for how the Street  will react to Q2 earnings, a cash reserve is warranted, since I AM GETTING THE IMPRESSION THE STREET’S ESTIMATES ARE RUNNING ON THE HIGH SIDE.

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

SUMMARY  (No change)

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ?

     Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.

      Q2 earnings are coming in and suggest the Street is “over” estimating Q2 and beyond.  Just a feeling I have.  FactSet Research sees year-over-year  for Q2  coming in as a decline of 4.5% with a return to growth developing in Q4 of close to +4.2%. It’s the latter that could sink stocks into an ugly slide.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

THE FED

      The guessing game continues – Will the Fed bump interest rates up in September, or later ?

      Obviously, their decision will key on the strength of the U.S. economy where housing is taking the lead and now consumer expectations are soaring.

…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  July 16,  a reasonable risk is 18,000c; a more extreme risk is 17,950 The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 18,329. Yesterday, the DJIA broke below 17,950, but 120 points of that was IBM’s loss. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

RECOMMENDATION:  InvesTech Research is the finest advisory I have tracked in more than 30 years.  Plain talk, but solidly based indicators, great historical data to back positions.  Monthly, 8 pages, $295/year, worth every penny. Ask for copy (406)862-7777

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
Q2 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Recent strength in employment and housing industry shifting concern from a weakening in the U.S. economy to enough strength to prompt an early bump up in interest rates.

-Greece:  I DON’T  THINK GREECE WILL BE IN THE EURO A YEAR FROM NOW

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Q2 Earnings a Big Challenge for Bulls

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 18,100
S&P 500: 2,128
Nasdaq  Comp.: 5,218
Russell 2000: 1,260

Tuesday,  July 21, 2015   9:11 a.m.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

TODAY:

Stocks  failed to follow through yesterday, and I suspect part of the reason is uncertainty about Q2 earnings, but more so to outlook for Q3, Q4 and 2016.

Then too, a pause here would be normal following a sharp run up after the Greece appeared to strike a deal with creditors and China did not implode.

     Even so, Q2 earnings are the focus, and big moves can distort the market. IBM’s stock is down 9 points in pre-market trading, which lops off 60 points from the DJIA (9 divided by 0,149858) in pre-market action.

    Get ready for volatility and beware – the Street can be cruel to shares of stocks that “miss” or just don’t “beat” projections.

………………………………………………………………………………

RESISTANCE today:  DJIA:18,127; S&P 500:2,132; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,227.

SUPPORT today:   DJIA:17,961 ; S&P 500: 2,109; Nasdaq Comp.:5,191 .
………………………………………………………………………………..

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to turn back or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily.
……………………………………………………………………………….

  • STATUS OF MARKET:  Bull Market with overhead supply coming in after a sharp  rally back into the upper end of a trading range that has contained stocks for most of the last five months. Nasdaq leads the pack and could pull the DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 with it. Friday’s  Nasdaq’s surge partly due to Google’s (GOOG) 93-point jump.
  • OPPORTUNITY:  The Street is reaching for greater risk in order to achieve greater potential gain as reflected in strength in Nasdaq stocks. Momentum stocks will get a bigger and bigger play. These seem to move up no matter what, but mostly because they are goosed by big money which has a huge position at lower prices. This is normal for late-stage bull markets and can spill over into small company stocks, then eventually into micro-caps and stocks with a well-hyped story!  There will be an opportunity to make some fast money, but in many cases in stocks with little merit. The fever gets so intense, even experienced investors get caught up in the excitement and eventually get crushed by a crash to reality.
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings.
  • CONCLUSION: The Street does not want this party to end even though valuations are above the “norm,” the economy is iffy, and corporate earnings in Q2 will be down. We need another week or so to get a feel for how the Street  will react to Q2 earnings.  So far, the prospect of soft results is not spooking them. 

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

SUMMARY  (No change)

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ?

     Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.

      Q2 earnings will begin to flow in coming weeks.  FactSet Research sees year-over-year  for Q2  coming in as a decline of 4.5% with a return to growth developing in Q4 of close to +4.2%.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

THE FED

      The guessing game continues – Will the Fed bump interest rates up in September, or later ?

      Obviously, their decision will key on the strength of the U.S. economy where housing is taking the lead and now consumer expectations are soaring.

…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  July 16,  a reasonable risk is 18,000c; a more extreme risk is 17,950 The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 18,329.  

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

RECOMMENDATION:  InvesTech Research is the finest advisory I have tracked in more than 30 years.  Plain talk, but solidly based indicators, great historical data to back positions.  Monthly, 8 pages, $295/year, worth every penny. Ask for copy (406)862-7777

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
Q2 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Recent strength in employment and housing industry shifting concern from a weakening in the U.S. economy to enough strength to prompt an early bump up in interest rates.

-Greece

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Breakout ….or Fake Out ?

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 18,086
S&P 500: 2,166
Nasdaq  Comp.5,210:
Russell 2000: 1,263

Monday,  July 20, 2015   9:14 a.m.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

  • STATUS OF MARKET:  Bull Market with overhead supply coming in after a sharp  rally back into the upper end of a trading range that has contained stocks for most of the last five months. Nasdaq leads the pack and could pull the DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 with it. Friday’s  Nasdaq’s surge partly due to Google’s (GOOG) 93-point jump.
  • OPPORTUNITY:  The Street is reaching for greater risk in order to achieve greater potential gain as reflected in strength in Nasdaq stocks. Momentum stocks will get a bigger and bigger play. These seem to move up no matter what, but mostly because they are goosed by big money which has a huge position at lower prices. This is normal for late-stage bull markets and can spill over into small company stocks, then eventually into micro-caps and stocks with a well-hyped story!  There will be an opportunity to make some fast money, but in many cases in stocks with little merit. The fever gets so intense, even experienced investors get caught up in the excitement and eventually get crushed by a crash to reality.
  • RISK: Above average with news sensitive market.
  • CASH RESERVE: 25%
  • KEY FACTORS:  Fed decision on rates; strength of economic rebound; Outlook for Q3/Q4 earnings.
  • CONCLUSION: The Street does not want this party to end even though valuations are above the “norm,” the economy is iffy, and corporate earnings in Q2 will be down. We need another week or so to get a feel for how the Street  will react to Q2 earnings.  So far, the prospect of soft results is not spooking them. 

/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

TODAY:

    Expect a positive open which could gain traction as speculative fever begins to creep in, thanks to Nasdaq’s 6-day run.  I’d feel more comfortable though watching today’s action for more proof that the rest of the market is following suit.  Q2 earnings may have something to say about the near-term direction of stocks.
     ………………………………………………………………………………

RESISTANCE today:  DJIA:18,117; S&P 500:2,131; Nasdaq Comp.5,219.

SUPPORT today:   DJIA: 17,989; S&P 500:2,116 ; Nasdaq Comp. 5,166
………………………………………………………………………………..

NOTE: Support and resistance levels are where I expect the intraday prices of the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. to turn back or close. Buyers should be cautious when a resistance level is reached but consider buying when support levels are reached. Sellers should consider taking action when resistance levels are reached and defer selling when support levels are reached. These levels are picked daily.
……………………………………………………………………………….

SUMMARY  (No change)

     The biggest factor here is the U.S. economy.  Will it rebound from its reported Q1 slump, which most likely  was distorted by weather, oil prices, the impact of a strong US dollar, even seasonality ?

     Recession does not look like a real risk, so much as a “pause” in the economy.

      Q2 earnings will begin to flow in coming weeks.  FactSet Research sees year-over-year  for Q2  coming in as a decline of 4.5% with a return to growth developing in Q4 of close to +4.2%.

       Q2 EARNINGS

       BEWARE of crunches in stock prices of companies that “miss” projections, or simply don’t “beat” by enough.  This is an area where I think certain stock prices are manipulated by shorts or institutions that want to accumulate larger positions.

      

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

THE FED

      The guessing game continues – Will the Fed bump interest rates up in September, or later ?

      Obviously, their decision will key on the strength of the U.S. economy where housing is taking the lead and now consumer expectations are soaring.

…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies

 On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  July 16,  a reasonable risk is 18,000c; a more extreme risk is 17,950 The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 18,329.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

RECOMMENDATION:  InvesTech Research is the finest advisory I have tracked in more than 30 years.  Plain talk, but solidly based indicators, great historical data to back positions.  Monthly, 8 pages, $295/year, worth every penny. Ask for copy (406)862-7777

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
Q2 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Recent strength in employment and housing industry shifting concern from a weakening in the U.S. economy to enough strength to prompt an early bump up in interest rates.

-Greece

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

…………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk