Opportunity Unfolding ?

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,596
S&P 500: 2,057
Nasdaq  Comp.: 4,958
Russell 2000: 1,246

Tuesday, June 30, 2015   9:03 a.m.

SUMMARY

     The sell off at yesterday’s open  was not enough to discount angst about the potential fallout from a Greek default today if it fails to make its 1.6 billion-euro  debt payment owed to the IMF. The market continued to sell off throughout the day.

     Pre-open futures trading indicates the possibility of a bounce at the open today, but a follow through is suspect without positive news Greece is not going to default.  Greece’s voters will vote on a referendum Sunday whether or not to accept more austerity in exchange for financial aid.

      I think the European Commission, European Central Bank and IMF have been prepared for this for years and are ready to implement damage control to head off a European meltdown.  Greece accounts for 2% of the euro-zone output.

………………………………………………………………………..

TODAY     

      The DJIA and S&P 500 are testing March lows of 17,579 and 2,034 respectively. Breaking those lows would trigger more selling in a market already under pressure and could take the DJIA down to the 17,000 area (S&P 500: 2,000).

      The more upbeat Nasdaq Comp. and Russell 2000 have a long way to go before testing  the March lows, but should find support around 4,790 and 1,204 respectively.

      More downside beyond the Greek crisis ?

      Small-to-moderate corrections (3%-5%) become uglier (8%-12%) if the market gets hit by new negatives at the time it is ready for a rebound after a small correction. In most cases, this is not foreseeable in advance – it just happens.

      Expect statements designed to stabilize the stock market. Without concrete news resistance should start at:

Resistance today starts at DJIA: 17,737; S&P 500: 2,075; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,997.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.

THE FED

      The guessing game continues – Will the Fed bump interest rates up in September, or later ?

      Obviously, their decision will key on the strength of the U.S. economy where housing is taking the lead and now consumer expectations are soaring.

      Today we will get the  S&P Case-Shiller Home Prices (9:00), Chicago PMI (9:45), Consumer Confidence (10:00). Wednesday brings the ADP Employment Report(8:15), PMI Mfg. (9:45), ISM Mfg. (10:00), Construction Spend (10:00). Thursday we get Jobless Claims and the Employment Situation reports (8:30), and Factory Orders 10:00).

      Manufacturing has lagged. Any pickup and “interest rate bump” hits headlines.

…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  June 26 a reasonable risk is 17,837; a more extreme risk is 17,650 The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 18,270 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

RECOMMENDATION:  InvesTech Research is the finest advisory I have tracked in more than 30 years.  Plain talk, but solidly based indicators, great historical data to back positions.  Monthly, 8 pages, $295/year, worth every penny. Ask for copy (406)862-7777

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
Q2 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Recent strength in employment and housing industry shifting concern from a weakening in the U.S. economy to enough strength to prompt an early bump up in interest rates.

-Greece

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

……………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trader’s Buy at the Open Without Deal

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,946
S&P 500: 2,101
Nasdaq  Comp.: 5,080
Russell 2000: 1,279

Monday, June 29, 2015   9:03 a.m.

TODAY

     Friday I said, “A settlement over the weekend would bump prices at the open Monday, so traders may want to buy late in the day here. No weekend settlement would crunch prices in the first 20 minutes of trading Monday giving traders an even better entry point.”

     It is 9:10 and no settlement has occurred. If that’s the case at 9:30, the market will take a big hit in early trading, which should give traders a chance to buy at least partial positions saving some cash in case this crisis is taken to a higher level.

      A settlement before 9:30 would run the market up sharply in a “gap” open.

      Remember this, the Greece crisis has been with us since 2010 along with the possibility it will exit the euro, and possibly set the stage for others to do so.

      I think the European Commission, European Central Bank and IMF have been prepared for this for years and are ready to implement damage control to head off a European meltdown.  Greece accounts for 2% of the euro-zone output.

Resistance today starts at DJIA: 18,047; S&P 500: 2,110; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,131.

Support today is: DJIA:17,787; S&P500: 2,112;  Nasdaq Comp.: 5,109.

THE FED

      The guessing game continues – Will the Fed bump interest rates up in September, or later ?

      Obviously, their decision will key on the strength of the U.S. economy where housing is taking the lead and now consumer expectations are soaring.

      Pending Home Sales come at 10 o’clock, the Dallas Fed Mfg. at 10:30, S&P Case-Shiller Home Prices Tuesday (9:00), Chicago PMI (9:45), Consumer Confidence (10:00)Wednesday brings the ADP Employment Report(8:15), PMI Mfg. (9:45), ISM Mfg. (10:00), Construction Spend (10:00). Thursday we get Jobless Claims and the Employment Situation reports (8:30), and Factory Orders 10:00).

      Manufacturing has lagged. Any pickup and “interest rate bump” hits headlines.

…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  June 26 a reasonable risk is 17,837; a more extreme risk is 17,650 The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 18,270.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

RECOMMENDATION:  InvesTech Research is the finest advisory I have tracked in more than 30 years.  Plain talk, but solidly based indicators, great historical data to back positions.  Monthly, 8 pages, $295/year, worth every penny. Ask for copy (406)862-7777

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
Q2 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Recent strength in employment and housing industry shifting concern from a weakening in the U.S. economy to enough strength to prompt an early bump up in interest rates.

-Greece

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

……………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trader’s Buy If Market Sells Off Today

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,890
S&P 500: 2,102
Nasdaq  Comp.: 5,112 
Russell 2000: 1,282

Friday, June 26, 2015   9:15 a.m.

TODAY

     We have experienced greater crises than Greece, but it is currently having a temporary impact on the stock market.  Greece’s creditors have offered a five month $17.3 billion package to avert default.

     Rejection throws everything into the weekend with a down day in the markets here. 

     A settlement over the weekend would bump prices at the open Monday, so traders may want to buy late in the day here.  No weekend settlement would crunch prices in the first 20 minutes of trading Monday giving traders an even better entry point.

Resistance today starts at DJIA: 17,963; S&P 500: 2,110; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,131.

Support today is: DJIA:17,804; S&P500: 2,093;  Nasdaq Comp.: 5,035.

THE FED

      The guessing game continues – Will the Fed bump interest rates up in September, or later ?

      Obviously, their decision will key on the strength of the U.S. economy where housing is taking the lead.  Existing Home Sales for May were solid with a 5.1% jump at an annual rate (9.2% year/year). New Home Sales posted a 2.2% jump, as well. 

     The final estimate for Q1 – GDP was reported this morning in line with projections (-0.2% at an annual rate). Q1 was a flat quarter, distorted by severe weather, the West Coast port strike and skewed seasonal adjustments.  It’s all about  whether the economy can rebound in coming months.

…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  June 5, a reasonable risk is 17,763; a more extreme risk is 17,556 The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 18,160.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

RECOMMENDATION:  InvesTech Research is the finest advisory I have tracked in more than 30 years.  Plain talk, but solidly based indicators, great historical data to back positions.  Monthly, 8 pages, $295/year, worth every penny. Ask for copy (406)862-7777

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
Q2 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Recent strength in employment and housing industry shifting concern from a weakening in the U.S. economy to enough strength to prompt an early bump up in interest rates.

-Greece

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

……………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Greek Dilemma – a Buying Opportunity Friday ?

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,966
S&P 500: 2,108
Nasdaq  Comp.: 5,122 
Russell 2000: 1,284

Thursday, June 25, 2015   9:12 a.m.

TODAY

    Uncertainty about a deal between Greece and its creditors will roil market off and on this week and possibly early next week. It is not that Greece is an economic power so much as default could upset international financial markets to what extent nobody really knows.

   The announcement of a deal would reduce the uncertainty overhanging the market, but this one will probably go up to the last minute.

    Without an announcement, the rally starting today will fail.

Resistance today starts at DJIA: 18,036; S&P 500: 2,116 ; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,141

Support today is: DJIA:17,835; S&P500: 2,093;  Nasdaq Comp.: 5,087  .

THE FED

      The guessing game continues – Will the Fed bump interest rates up in September, or later ?

      Obviously, their decision will key on the strength of the U.S. economy where housing is taking the lead.  Existing Home Sales for May were solid with a 5.1% jump at an annual rate (9.2% year/year). New Home Sales posted a 2.2% jump, as well. 

     The final estimate for Q1 – GDP was reported this morning in line with projections (-0.2% at an annual rate). Q1 was a flat quarter, distorted by severe weather, the West Coast port strike and skewed seasonal adjustments.  It’s all about  whether the economy can rebound in coming months.

…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  June 5, a reasonable risk is 17,763; a more extreme risk is 17,556 The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 18,160.  

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

RECOMMENDATION:  InvesTech Research is the finest advisory I have tracked in more than 30 years.  Plain talk, but solidly based indicators, great historical data to back positions.  Monthly, 8 pages, $295/year, worth every penny. Ask for copy (406)862-7777

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
Q2 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Recent strength in employment and housing industry shifting concern from a weakening in the U.S. economy to enough strength to prompt an early bump up in interest rates.

-Greece

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

……………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A Pause Here Would Be Healthy, but ….

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 18,144
S&P 500: 2,124
Nasdaq  Comp.:  5,160
Russell 2000: 1,295

Wednesday, June 24, 2015   9:12 a.m.

TODAY

     Nasdaq and Russell 2000 stocks continue to steal the spotlight as the Street is  raising the level of risk it is willing to take to achieve superior results.

     This will likely lead to speculation in small/micro-cap stocks, normal behavior for late stage bull markets.

      There are enough uncertainties out there to deter  rank speculation in penny stocks and stocks with an exciting story but no real substance, though that is becoming a greater possibility as time passes.    

Resistance today starts at DJIA: 18,206 ; S&P 500: 2,131; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,175.

Support today is: DJIA: 18,023; S&P500: 2,112 ;  Nasdaq Comp.:  5,132.

SUMMARY

THE FED

      The guessing game continues – Will the Fed bump interest rates up in September, or later ?

      Obviously, their decision will key on the strength of the U.S. economy where housing is taking the lead.  Existing Home Sales for May were solid with a 5.1% jump at an annual rate (9.2% year/year). New Home Sales posted a 2.2% jump, as well. 

     The final estimate for Q1 – GDP was reported this morning in line with projections (-0.2% at an annual rate). Q1 was a flat quarter, distorted by severe weather, the West Coast port strike and skewed seasonal adjustments.  It’s all about  whether the economy can rebound in coming months.

GREECE

Yesterday, Greece’s economic minister , Giorgios Stathakis, indicated a breakthrough was possible.     While Greece’s woes have been a drag, a settlement would remove lift a lid of uncertainty over the market. Default would roil international markets. …………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  June 5, a reasonable risk is 17,763; a more extreme risk is 17,556 The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 18,160.

 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

RECOMMENDATION:  InvesTech Research is the finest advisory I have tracked in more than 30 years.  Plain talk, but solidly based indicators, great historical data to back positions.  Monthly, 8 pages, $295/year, worth every penny. Ask for copy (406)862-7777

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
Q2 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Recent strength in employment and housing industry shifting concern from a weakening in the U.S. economy to enough strength to prompt an early bump up in interest rates.

-Greece

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

……………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Speculation Heating Up

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 18,119
S&P 500: 2,122
Nasdaq  Comp.:  5,153 
Russell 2000: 1,292

Tuesday, June 23, 2015   8: 12 a.m.

TODAY:
    The four month trading range intact since February for the DJIA (17,600 to 18,300) and  S&P 500: (2,040 to 2,130) remains intact, but the Nasdaq Comp. started to break out last Thursday, stalled Friday, then broke out yesterday.  A trading range for the Russell 2000 has been less clearly defined with the index of smaller companies  pressing upward over the last two weeks with an impressive “gap” open yesterday.

     This strength in the Nasdaq and Russell stocks signals an increase in the Street’s  preference for taking increased risk to achieve greater gains, a classic characteristic of later stage bull markets.

     Resistance today starts at DJIA: 18,134; S&P 500:2,136;  Nasdaq Comp.:5,174;

SUMMARY

THE FED

      The guessing game continues – Will the Fed bump interest rates up in September, or later ?

      Obviously, their decision will key on the strength of the U.S. economy.

Existing Home Sales for May were solid with a 5.1% jump at an annual rate (9.2% year/year) – Not bad.

      Durable Goods come at 8:30 today, FHFA House Prices at 9:00, PMI Manufacturing at 9:45, New Home Sales and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing activity  at 10:00.

GREECE

Yesterday, Greece’s economic minister , Giorgios Stathakis, indicated a breakthrough was possible.     While Greece’s woes have been a drag, a settlement would remove lift a lid of uncertainty over the market. Default would roil international markets. …………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  June 5, a reasonable risk is 17,763; a more extreme risk is 17,556 The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 18,160.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

RECOMMENDATION:  InvesTech Research is the finest advisory I have tracked in more than 30 years.  Plain talk, but solidly based indicators, great historical data to back positions.  Monthly, 8 pages, $295/year, worth every penny. Ask for copy (406)862-7777

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
Q2 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Recent strength in employment and housing industry shifting concern from a weakening in the U.S. economy to enough strength to prompt an early bump up in interest rates.

-Greece

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

……………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nasdaq and Russell Breakout

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 18,115
S&P 500: 2,121
Nasdaq  Comp.:  5,132
Russell 2000: 1,284

Friday, June 19, 2015   9:03 a.m.

TODAY

     The four month trading range intact since February for the DJIA (17,600 to 18,300) and  S&P 500: (2,040 to 2,130) remains intact, but the Nasdaq Comp. started to break out yesterday above 5,100.  A trading range for the Russell 2000 has been less clearly defined with the index of smaller companies  pressing upward to new highs.

      It’s “Quadruple Witching Friday when index futures, index options, stock options and stock futures expire.  This can trigger volatility.

      After a three day surge in the market, some profit taking would be normal with support today at DJIA: 17,995; S&P 500: 2,107; Nasdaq Comp.:5,086.

      There is room on the upside for another spike up to DJIA: 18,205; S&P 500:2,128; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,155.

SUMMARY

THE FED

      Not much was gained by bulls or bears Wednesday as Fed Chief Janet Yellen outlined the Fed’s current  position without saying anything in particular, but the bulls saved it all for yesterday’s market with gains across the board and all-time highs in the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000.

      Zero-based interest rates are all the Street seems to think is important. At some point, it will get skewered by reality – interest rates must rise not once but several times. Stock markets have done well with rates higher than they are now.

      Unless preceded by a correction in advance, be prepared for  the market’s first reaction to higher interest rates to be a plunge in prices.   Also be ready for a sharp rebound in prices as it dawns on the Street  its paranoia is unfounded.

       Conditions at the time will dictate how quickly the market will rebound.

GREECE

     While Greece’s woes have been a drag, a settlement would remove lift a lid of uncertainty over the market. Default would roil international markets. Odds favor a resolution, though this issue will re-surface again and again in the future.
 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

QUESTION:   Will people be able to think independently 20 years from now, or will they have to ask a hand-held computer for the answer ?  Then too, who posts the info they are accessing ? Final question:  If a tree falls in the forest, does a hand held computer hear it ?

    I am far from the smartest person in the country, city, on my block, or in my home, but don’t take over my ability to think things through.

    Think about it (if you haven’t already surrendered that option), where is this going ?

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

ALERTALERTALERT, etc.

     The six months period between Nov. 1 and May 1 has historically been the best six months for the stock market.* The six months between May 1 and Nov. 1 has underperformed. Consistent as this seasonal pattern has been, it must be noted that opportunities to trade against these trends have occurred often.  Analysts and the press will make a lot of noise about this phenom in coming months –  be careful.

     The DJIA and S&P 500 are unchanged since April 30.
…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  June 5, a reasonable risk is 17,763; a more extreme risk is 17,556 The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 18,160.

   

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

RECOMMENDATION:  InvesTech Research is the finest advisory I have tracked in more than 30 years.  Plain talk, but solidly based indicators, great historical data to back positions.  Monthly, 8 pages, $295/year, worth every penny. Ask for copy (406)862-7777

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
Q2 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Recent strength in employment and housing industry shifting concern from a weakening in the U.S. economy to enough strength to prompt an early bump up in interest rates.

-Greece

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

……………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What If the Supreme Court Rules Against ACA Subsidies ?

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,935
S&P 500: 2,100
Nasdaq  Comp.: 5,064:
Russell 2000: 1,269

Thursday, June 18, 2015   9:03 a.m.

SUMMARY

      A consideration which may not be  factored into the present psyc of the market is what happens if the Supreme Court decides people in 34 states cannot continue to receive Obamacare healthcare  insurance subsidies ?

      Better google this one, but not at bedtime if you live in one of the 34 states and are signed up for ACA insurance.

      The negative consequences of  a ruling against subsidies stands to be significant and so hard to gauge that the market could take a beating.

      Congress and affected states would have to scramble to lighten the impact maybe even set up their own exchanges.

 THE FED

      Not much was gained by bulls or bears yesterday as Fed Chief Janet Yellen outlined the Fed’s current  position without saying anything in particular.

        I think the Street became addicted the Fed teet a long time ago, and doesn’t know anything else.  It’s so confused, it no longer knows whether good economic news is good or is bad.   It awaits these Fed news conferences, like a 5 year-old waiting for Santa.

GREECE

     While Greece’s woes have been a drag, a settlement would remove lift a lid of uncertainty over the market. Default would roil international markets.
TODAY

The intense volatility over the last four months with abrupt surges and plunges in the market has served as  a corrective process, but more so it represents the potential for  a “top” formation or  a “base” formation for a big move one way or the other..

RESISTANCE today is:  DJIA: 18,026; S&P 500: 2,109 ; Nasdaq Comp.:5,086 

MINOR SUPPORT today is:  DJIA: 17,886 ; S&P 500:2,097; Nasdaq Comp.:5,056.

 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

QUESTION:   Will people be able to think independently 20 years from now, or will they have to ask a hand-held computer for the answer ?  Then too, who posts the info they are accessing ? Final question:  If a tree falls in the forest, does a hand held computer hear it ?

    I am far from the smartest person in the country, city, on my block, or in my home, but don’t take over my ability to think things through.

    Think about it (if you haven’t already surrendered that option), where is this going ?

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>..

TRADING RANGE

     The four month trading range intact since February is (DJIA: 17,600 to 18,300; S&P 500: 2,040 to 2,130; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,856 to 5,100).

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

ALERTALERTALERT, etc.

     The six months period between Nov. 1 and May 1 has historically been the best six months for the stock market.* The six months between May 1 and Nov. 1 has underperformed. Consistent as this seasonal pattern has been, it must be noted that opportunities to trade against these trends have occurred often.  Analysts and the press will make a lot of noise about this phenom in coming months –  be careful.

     The DJIA and S&P 500 are unchanged since April 30.
…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  June 5, a reasonable risk is 17,763; a more extreme risk is 17,556 The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 18,160.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

RECOMMENDATION:  InvesTech Research is the finest advisory I have tracked in more than 30 years.  Plain talk, but solidly based indicators, great historical data to back positions.  Monthly, 8 pages, $295/year, worth every penny. Ask for copy (406)862-7777

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
Q2 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Recent strength in employment and housing industry shifting concern from a weakening in the U.S. economy to enough strength to prompt an early bump up in interest rates.

-Greece

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

……………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Street To Parse Yellen’s Words Today

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,904
S&P 500: 2,096
Nasdaq  Comp.: 5,055
Russell 2000: 1.269

Wednesday, June 17, 2015   9:03 a.m.

TODAY:

     The FOMC will release its report on the economy at 2:00 p.m., Fed Chief Janet Yellen will hold a press conference at 2:30. While a major announcement is not expected, the Street will parse every word of her comments for a clue regarding timing of a bump in interest rates.      

     While Greece’s woes have been a drag, a settlement would remove lift a lid of uncertainty over the market.
  The Russell 2000 has been a powerhouse throughout, an indication the Street is reaching for more risk to achieve gains.

     While this bull market has racked up incredible gains in six years, I do not see the sloppy buying yet, rank speculation with people making overnight gains in low-priced stocks.  I don’t even hear people talking about the market yet.

      Overpriced by a number of yardsticks – YES ! 
      Nevertheless, It is very hard to stop a runaway train, and even more difficult to jump off one.

The intense volatility over the last four months with abrupt surges and plunges in the market involved a corrective process, but more so it represents the potential for  a “top” formation or “base” formation for a big move.

RESISTANCE today is:  DJIA: 18,027; S&P 500: 2,107; Nasdaq Comp.:  5,083

MINOR SUPPORT today is:  DJIA: 17,881; S&P 500:2,093; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,048
……………………………………………………………………………

SUMMARY

     The BIG “Q” here is whether the U.S. economy will rebound from its Q1 slump and how robust that bounce would be.

      The Street is in a quandary. A sharp rebound in the economy would hasten a Fed bump up in interest rates, which to-date the Street has considered to be bearish.  A further slump in the economy would keep interest rates at all-time lows, which so far the Street thinks is bullish.

      However, the economy can only slump so far before the Street changes heart and heads for the exits.

       Last week’s employment and retail numbers were upbeat.  This week May Industrial Production and June Empire State Manufacturing were below forecasts, though the Housing Market Index beat estimates reaching a nine month high. While May Housing Starts slipped, permits for future construction surged to an 8-year high.    

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

QUESTION:   Will people be able to think independently 20 years from now, or will they have to ask a hand-held computer for the answer ?  Then too, who posts the info they are accessing ? Final question:  If a tree falls in the forest, does a hand held computer hear it ?

    I am far from the smartest person in the country, city, on my block, or in my home, but don’t take over my ability to think things through.

    Think about it (if you haven’t already surrendered that option), where is this going ?

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>..

TRADING RANGE

     The four month trading range intact since February is (DJIA: 17,600 to 18,300; S&P 500: 2,040 to 2,130; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,856 to 5,100).

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

ALERTALERTALERT, etc.

     The six months period between Nov. 1 and May 1 has historically been the best six months for the stock market.* The six months between May 1 and Nov. 1 has underperformed. Consistent as this seasonal pattern has been, it must be noted that opportunities to trade against these trends have occurred often.  Analysts and the press will make a lot of noise about this phenom in coming months –  be careful.

     The DJIA and S&P 500 are unchanged since April 30.
…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  June 5, a reasonable risk is 17,763; a more extreme risk is 17,556 The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 18,160.

   

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

RECOMMENDATION:  InvesTech Research is the finest advisory I have tracked in more than 30 years.  Plain talk, but solidly based indicators, great historical data to back positions.  Monthly, 8 pages, $295/year, worth every penny. Ask for copy (406)862-7777

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
Q2 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Recent strength in employment and housing industry shifting concern from a weakening in the U.S. economy to enough strength to prompt an early bump up in interest rates.

-Greece

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

……………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bulls’ Lead – Ever So Slight

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,791
S&P 500: 2,084
Nasdaq  Comp.: 5,029
Russell 2000: 1,261

Tuesday, June 16, 2015   9:11 a.m.

SUMMARY

     Greece’s fiscal problems have depressed stock prices for two days, but failure to avert a default by June 30 when its debt payment of 313 euros ($354 billion) is due would have an unthinkable adverse effect on its country.  Expect a compromise and rebound in stocks.

     The BIG “Q” here is whether the U.S. economy will rebound from its Q1 slump and how robust that bounce would be.

      The Street is in a quandary. A sharp rebound in the economy would hasten a Fed bump up in interest rates, which to-date the Street has considered to be bearish.  A further slump in the economy would keep interest rates at all-time lows, which so far the Street thinks is bullish.

      However, the economy can only slump so far before the Street change heart and head for the exits.

       Last week’s employment and retail numbers were upbeat.  This week May Industrial Production and June Empire State Manufacturing were below forecasts, though the Housing Market Index beat estimates reaching a nine month high. While May Housing Starts slipped, permits for future construction surged to an 8-year high.

      The FOMC meets today with its report Wednesday followed by Fed Chief Yellen’s  press conference Wednesday at 2:30.

TODAY:

      Common sense says there will be a compromise in Greece and the Fed will not announce an increase in interest rates tomorrow. The market doesn’t always track common sense, but the odds are in its favor here.

      The market stabilized after yesterday’s early sell off, the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 indexes were very strong recouping most of the day’s losses, a good sign.

      In a number of ways, the market is overvalued. The question is how much more overvalued can it get before topping out ?

RESISTANCE today is:  DJIA: 17,907; S&P 500: 2,093; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,047.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>..

TRADING RANGE

     The four month trading range intact since February is (DJIA: 17,600 to 18,300; S&P 500: 2,040 to 2,130; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,856 to 5,100).

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

ALERTALERTALERT, etc.

     The six months period between Nov. 1 and May 1 has historically been the best six months for the stock market.* The six months between May 1 and Nov. 1 has underperformed. Consistent as this seasonal pattern has been, it must be noted that opportunities to trade against these trends have occurred often.  Analysts and the press will make a lot of noise about this phenom in coming months –  be careful.

     The DJIA and S&P 500 are unchanged since April 30.
…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  for a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  June 5, a reasonable risk is 17,763; a more extreme risk is 17,556 The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 18,160.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

RECOMMENDATION:  InvesTech Research is the finest advisory I have tracked in more than 30 years.  Plain talk, but solidly based indicators, great historical data to back positions.  Monthly, 8 pages, $295/year, worth every penny. Ask for copy (406)862-7777

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
Q2 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Recent strength in employment and housing industry shifting concern from a weakening in the U.S. economy to enough strength to prompt an early bump up in interest rates.

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

……………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk