RISKS

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 18,126
S&P 500: 2,120
Nasdaq  Comp.5,097
Russell 2000: 1,253

Friday, May 29, 2015   9:11 a.m.

SUMMARY:

     There are so many ingredients in this bull market stew. 

     -Adversities come and go prompting confidence one week doubts the next.

     -Fed policy triggers alternating surges and plunges in stock prices.

     -The economic recovery looks sustainable at times, not so at other. 

     -International tensions have more or less impact at times – always there.

     -Stock valuations seem over or under the norm depending on which era they

      are compared to.

    Corporate managements have drawn on a bag of tricks over the years  to grow their bottom lines, but are now challenged to grow the top line.

    This market is currently priced for moderate growth.  Exceptional growth calls for much higher prices.  No growth or lower results calls for an ugly correction.

     These diverse variables defy quantification, though many try. Trends, up and down, are readable , indecisiveness less so.

      In it for the long haul ?

      That makes sense until a 30% – 40% correction intervenes (and it will some day)

      There’s risk in owning, as well as “not” owning stocks.

       Cash “is” an investment. How much depends on one’s tolerance for risk.

TODAY:

      The bulls need to push prices higher with gains crossing 18,154 (DJIA; 2,122 (S&P 500); and 5,112 (Nasdaq Comp.)

       But they have to hold the line at 18,065 (DJIA; 2,112 (S&P 500); 5,080 (Nasdaq Comp.).

        >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

ALERTALERTALERT

     The six months period between Nov. 1 and May 1 has historically been the best six months for the stock market.* The six months between May 1 and Nov. 1 has underperformed. Consistent as this seasonal pattern has been, it must be noted that opportunities to trade against these trends have occurred often.  Analysts and the press will make a lot of noise about this phenom in coming months –  be careful.
…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  May 22, a reasonable risk is 18,120; a more extreme risk is 17,990 The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 18,511. Yesterday’s drop reduces this number to “unlikely.”

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

RECOMMENDATION:  InvesTech Research is the finest advisory I have tracked in more than 30 years.  Plain talk, but solidly based indicators, great historical data to back positions.  Monthly, 8 pages, $295/year, worth every penny. Ask for copy (406)862-7777

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
-Q1 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Concern that the U.S. economy is beginning to slump. This week is mixed.

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

……………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Speculative Fever Mounting

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 18,162
S&P 500: 2,123
Nasdaq  Comp.5,106
Russell 2000: 1,254

Thursday, May 28, 2015   9:06 a.m.

SUMMARY:

     Tuesday, I headlined, “Correction Possible – Great Trading Opportunity,” and the DJIA plunged 190 points.

     Yesterday, I indicated that I expected a follow through with the market finding a bounce point this week possibly from a level as low as DJIA:17,900  (S&P 500: 2088; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,982) area  (a trading opportunity !).

     Didn’t happen. The market rebounded sharply with the DJIA and S&P 500 regaining Tuesday’s loss.

SPECULATIVE FEVER ?

     More important than the overall rebound, was the fact the Nasdaq Comp. and small-company Russell 2000 not only recouped all of Tuesday’s loss and ran much further with the Nasdaq hitting an all-time high.

     This indicates a hunger for bigger gains but at  greater risk, something characteristic of  bull markets that trend to greater and greater speculation.

     The final stage of bull markets can feature outlandish speculation where easy money  is made in grossly over-valued story stocks before the plug is pulled.

      Speculation can be so over-the-top, the less one knows, the more money they can make (to a point).

      Small cap stocks have done well so far in this bull market with the Russell 2000 rising 266%.

      But, I don’t see the classic signs of the small investor jumping in with abandon, so this Bull could run much further (corrections along the way).

      This is would be the,  “I can’t stand it anymore,” phase where bull markets eventually suck everyone in – unfortunately close to the top.

      This is human nature:  fear at bottoms – greed at tops.

TODAY:

      Expect some selling in early trading with some buying to show up around DJIA:18,094; S&P 500: 2,114; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,064. 

  >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

ALERTALERTALERT

     The six months period between Nov. 1 and May 1 has historically been the best six months for the stock market.* The six months between May 1 and Nov. 1 has underperformed. Consistent as this seasonal pattern has been, it must be noted that opportunities to trade against these trends have occurred often.  Analysts and the press will make a lot of noise about this phenom in coming months –  be careful.
…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  May 22, a reasonable risk is 18,120; a more extreme risk is 17,990 The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 18,511. Yesterday’s drop reduces this number to “unlikely.”

 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

RECOMMENDATION:  InvesTech Research is the finest advisory I have tracked in more than 30 years.  Plain talk, but solidly based indicators, great historical data to back positions.  Monthly, 8 pages, $295/year, worth every penny. Ask for copy (406)862-7777

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
-Q1 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Concern that the U.S. economy is beginning to slump. This week is mixed.

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

……………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Market Seeking Comfort Level

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 18,041
S&P 500: 2,104
Nasdaq  Comp.5,062:
Russell 2000: 1,238

Wednesday, May 27, 2015   9:11 a.m.

SUMMARY:

     Two weeks ago, I  headlined  that the month of May will be a crossroads where the market will move decidedly up or down, breaking out of the  three month trading range, roughly (DJIA 17,600 – 18,200; S&P 500: 2,040 – 2,120; Nasdaq
Comp.: 4,850 – 5,100).    

     Yesterday a host of economic reports were released – the results were mixed with no indication of a serious slump in the economy, but no indication we will see a robust rebound soon.

     Reports included: Durable Goods (minus 0.5% Apr.), house prices at 9:00, PMI Services flash at 9:45, New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing and State Street Investor Confidence at 10:00, and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index at 10:30.  (see: mam.econoday.com for details).

     Yesterday’s break was technical after the market’s failure to follow through last week to new highs.

      We are six months into the year. Anyone expecting a bump up in interest rates in late Q3 may be on target. My guess is Q4.

       SILLY !

       I have been in this for 53 years (writing 47and have never seen the Street act so irrationally. It welcomes bad news because that assures it the Fed won’t raise interest rates a smidge, which is what it will amount to when they do it.

      Does the Street really want “bad” ? Wasn’t 2008-2009 miserable enough ?

       Let’s have both – a strong economy and a bump in interest rates.  If the economy cannot handle a small bump, look for an outright crash across the board, because the Street has been living a lie for 6 years.

      Listen, this is a tough business to be right with assessments and forecasts.

      Why ?

      Because there are always several balls up in the air, any one of which can come down unexpectedly to change the picture.

      But why make  conclusions more difficult to  arrive at with a “bad news is good news” mentality ?

      A bump in interest rates is most devastating when the Fed hikes them to cool off an overheated economy.

      I suspect the market will take a brief but nasty hit when the Fed announces its first hit off its zero-based policy, but I believe that hit may not even last a couple hours before the market will rebound. The rebound will be more dramatic if the market is down significantly before the announcement, i.e. a selling climax.

     The Street feared the Fed’s taper (remember ?), but the market rebounded sharply after a brief hit January 2014.

WHAT’s MY POINT ?

     It’s hard to guess what the Street thinks, because I am not sure its sentiments are in sync enough to sustain a meaningful up move or down move “at this point.”

A cash reserve is smart in time of uncertainty with the market close to all-time highs.

     More upside is possible, but with increasing risk.  Diversity and selectivity is key.

     TODAY:

     Expect the market to probe for a bounce point this week which could come from the DJIA 17,900  (S&P 500: 2088; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,982) area. 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

ALERTALERTALERT

     The six months period between Nov. 1 and May 1 has historically been the best six months for the stock market.* The six months between May 1 and Nov. 1 has underperformed. Consistent as this seasonal pattern has been, it must be noted that opportunities to trade against these trends have occurred often.  Analysts and the press will make a lot of noise about this phenom in coming months –  be careful.
…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  May 22, a reasonable risk is 18,120; a more extreme risk is 17,990 The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 18,511. Yesterday’s drop reduces this number to “unlikely.”

   

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

RECOMMENDATION:  InvesTech Research is the finest advisory I have tracked in more than 30 years.  Plain talk, but solidly based indicators, great historical data to back positions.  Monthly, 8 pages, $295/year, worth every penny. Ask for copy (406)862-7777

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
-Q1 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Concern that the U.S. economy is beginning to slump. This week is mixed.

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

……………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

Correction Possible – Great Trading Opportunity

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 18,232
S&P 500: 2,16
Nasdaq  Comp.: 5,089
Russell 2000: 1,252

Tuesday, May 26, 2015   8:52 a.m.

SUMMARY:
    
Once again the Street will be confronted by its two demons – the economy and the Fed.

     Here’s the problem. Since this bull market hit liftoff in early March 2009, the Street is addicted for its security by the continuance of the Fed’s zero-based interest rate policy.  Soft economic numbers have been welcomed, since they assured the Street  that the Fed policy would continue.

     Suddenly, there is now concern that a recession may be in the wings.  That may be too  much “softness” for the Street to handle.

     Now what ?

     Do they buy soft economic numbers, or sell ?

     But what if the economic reports suggest a second half rebound ?

     Does that increase the odds of an early bump in interest rates ?

     Cleveland President of the Fed Res. Bank of Cleveland (alternate voting member) says the time is near if economic data comes in  according to her forecasts.

     At this point, I believe a Fed announcement of a bump in interest rates would only temporarily hammer stock prices, maybe only for a day or two.

     We may get an early read on the economy today as a host of economic reports hit the news, starting with Durable Goods (minus 0.5% Apr.), house prices at 9:00, PMI Services flash at 9:45, New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Manufacturing and State Street Investor Confidence at 10:00, and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index at 10:30.     

     Two weeks ago, I  headlined  that the month of May will be a crossroads where the market will move decidedly up or down, breaking out of the  three month trading range, roughly (DJIA 17,600 – 18,200; S&P 500: 2,040 – 2,120; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,850 – 5,100). Bulls have a slight edge.

TODAY:
Support today is: DJIA:18,136; 2,112; Nasdaq Comp.5,056.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

ALERTALERTALERT

     The six months period between Nov. 1 and May 1 has historically been the best six months for the stock market.* The six months between May 1 and Nov. 1 has underperformed. Consistent as this seasonal pattern has been, it must be noted that opportunities to trade against these trends have occurred often.  Analysts and the press will make a lot of noise about this phenom in coming months –  be careful.
…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  May 22, a reasonable risk is 18,120; a more extreme risk is 17,990 The upside potential is has dropped with the market’s inability to follow through last week and is now 18,511.

 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

RECOMMENDATION:  InvesTech Research is the finest advisory I have tracked in more than 30 years.  Plain talk, but solidly based indicators, great historical data to back positions.  Monthly, 8 pages, $295/year, worth every penny. Ask for copy (406)862-7777

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
-Q1 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Concern that the U.S. economy is beginning to slump. This week is mixed.

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

……………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

Volatility Absent – Big Move in Offing ?

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 18,285
S&P 500: 2,130
Nasdaq  Comp.5,090
Russell 2000:1,256

Friday, May 22, 2015   9:02 a.m.

SUMMARY:

      This week’s economic data did little to boost stock prices. While April Housing Starts announced Tuesday boomed along with permits, other economic data was mixed.  Minutes from the FOMC meeting did little to stir the pot.

     Soft economic data suggests a Fed bump in interest rates is not coming until Q4, if then. Some fear a recession is in the wings, but those fears have come and gone frequently over the last six years of the economy’s recovery.

     No urgency to buy or sell.

     We’ve got a rest from the extreme volatility seen in recent months.  Granted it’s just been for several days, but the tone of the market has changed suggesting a consensus of sorts. I think the market is getting ready for a meaningful move.

     Two weeks ago, I  headlined  that the month of May will be a crossroads where the market will move decidedly up or down, breaking out of the  three month trading range, roughly (DJIA 17,600 – 18,200; S&P 500: 2,040 – 2,120; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,850 – 5,100). Bulls have a slight edge.

TODAY:

A move above DJIA: 18,316, S&P 500: 2,135; Nasdaq Comp.:5,099 improves the pattern with new highs  a good possibility.

Support today is: DJIA:18,249; 2,127; Nasdaq Comp.5,082.

ALERTALERTALERT

     The six months period between Nov. 1 and May 1 has historically been the best six months for the stock market.* The six months between May 1 and Nov. 1 has underperformed. Consistent as this seasonal pattern has been, it must be noted that opportunities to trade against these trends have occurred often.  Analysts and the press will make a lot of noise about this phenom in coming months –  be careful.
…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  May 14, a reasonable risk is 18,760. The upside potential is19,225 up from 18,334. That would be welcome.  

    Based on what we have seen in Q1 earnings, the current economic reports and timing of a Fed increase in interest rates, that’s hard to believe  – BUT the potential is there now. It needs a spark.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

RECOMMENDATION:  InvesTech Research is the finest advisory I have tracked in more than 30 years.  Plain talk, but solidly based indicators, great historical data to back positions.  Monthly, 8 pages, $295/year, worth every penny. Ask for copy (406)862-7777

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
-Q1 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Concern that the U.S. economy is beginning to slump. This week is mixed.

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

……………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

Quick Technical “Shake” Possible

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 18,285
S&P 500: 2,1255
Nasdaq  Comp. 5,057
Russell 2000:1,257

Thursday, May 21, 2015   8:52 a.m.

SUMMARY:

     The minutes from the FOMC meeting announced at 2 p.m. yesterday did nothing to impact stock prices.  Yes, the press will report a new 52-week high in the S&P 500, but only by a smidge and the index closed lower.

     Perhaps the Street is waiting for today’s economic data, primarily the Leading Indicators at 10 p.m. for direction.

     Two weeks ago, I  headlined  that the month of May will be a crossroads where the market will move decidedly up or down, breaking out of the  three month trading range, roughly (DJIA 17,600 – 18,200; S&P 500: 2,040 – 2,120; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,850 – 5,100). Bulls have a slight edge.

TODAY:

     Mixed at the open. With no rush to buy, the market needs to slip down to a level that whets appetites. That statement  becomes wrong with an upside  crossing of DJIA: 18,352 (S&P 500: 2,135.

    Otherwise look for support starting at DJIA: 18,167; S&P 500: 2,112; Nasdaq Comp: 5,038.

     There is increasing speculation that a recession is looming.  Traditionally, the market turns down several months ahead of the beginning of a recession (likewise for a bull market bottom), so the bears may need to put the horse ahead of the cart before any victory laps.

     Housing Starts for April were announced yesterday– up 20.2%, permits up 10.1%, double projections.  Starts beat projections, as well.

Fed Chief Janet Yellen speaks at 1:00 Friday.

      Consider two things:

  1. New highs would get headlines in the press and  attract emotional buying.
  2. Expect institutions to do some selling resulting in the possibility of a  rally failure to follow the new highs. Currently, the DJIA is up 5.3% and S&P and Nasdaq Comp. up 2.4% in 7 days.
  3. If the selling is massive, expect a major correction, i.e. the BIG money has been waiting to pull the plug and new highs is their chance to do it at the best price.
  4. If  massive selling  does not show up, a rally failure and sharp technical correction will be reversed in a day or two and a full scale breakout develop.

ALERTALERTALERT

     The six months period between Nov. 1 and May 1 has historically been the best six months for the stock market.* The six months between May 1 and Nov. 1 has underperformed. Consistent as this seasonal pattern has been, it must be noted that opportunities to trade against these trends have occurred often.  Analysts and the press will make a lot of noise about this phenom in coming months –  be careful.
…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  May 14, a reasonable risk is 18,760. The upside potential is19,225 up from 18,334. That would be welcome.

    Based on what we have seen in Q1 earnings, the current economic reports and timing of a Fed increase in interest rates, that’s hard to believe  – BUT the potential is there now. It needs a spark.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

RECOMMENDATION:  InvesTech Research is the finest advisory I have tracked in more than 30 years.  Plain talk, but solidly based indicators, great historical data to back positions.  Monthly, 8 pages, $295/year, worth every penny. Ask for copy (406)862-7777

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
-Q1 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Concern that the U.S. economy is beginning to slump. This week is mixed.

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

……………………………………………………………………………………

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

Market Poised for a Big Move

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 18,312
S&P 500: 2,127
Nasdaq  Comp. 5,020
Russell 2000: 1,255

Wednesday, May 20, 2015   9:14 a.m.

TODAY:

     Both the DJIA and S&P 500 hit new highs again yesterday, but failed to follow through.  The Nasdaq Comp. and Russell 2000 were ho-hummers.

      New highs in the DJIA and S&P 500 should trigger the Street’s computers to signal something, depending on the mindset of their programmers or the algorithms that have been plugged in.

      I still think the best computer is the human mind, conditioned by experience and capable of  adjusting to changing circumstances.   

     There is no Fed press conference today following the release of the FOMC minutes at 2 p.m. today, a solid indication no major policy change is in the offing.

     The Street is hoping for improved economic indicators this week, especially in housing and the leading economic indicators (Thurs. 10:00 a.m.).

      There is increasing speculation that a recession is looming.  Traditionally, the market turns down several months ahead of the beginning of a recession (likewise for a bull market bottom), so the bears may need to put the horse ahead of the cart before any victory laps.

     Housing Starts for April were announced yesterday– up 20.2%, permits up 10.1%, double projections.  Starts beat projections, as well.

Fed Chief Janet Yellen speaks at 1:00 Friday.

      Consider two things:

  1. New highs would get headlines in the press and  attract emotional buying.
  2. Expect institutions to do some selling resulting in the possibility of a  rally failure to follow the new highs. Currently, the DJIA is up 5.3% and S&P and Nasdaq Comp. up 2.4% in 7 days.
  3. If the selling is massive, expect a major correction, i.e. the BIG money has been waiting to pull the plug and new highs is their chance to do it at the best price.
  4. If  massive selling  does not show up, a rally failure and sharp technical correction will be reversed in a day or two and a full scale breakout develop.

Support today is DJIA: 18,295; S&P 500: 2,126; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,065.

Breaking that, a correction to DJIA: 18,235; S&P 500: 2,122; Nasdaq Comp.:5,056 is likely. 

     Two weeks ago, I  headlined  that the month of May will be a crossroads where the market will move decidedly up or down, breaking out of the  three month trading range, roughly (DJIA 17,600 – 18,200; S&P 500: 2,040 – 2,120; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,850 – 5,100).

ALERTALERTALERT

     The six months period between Nov. 1 and May 1 has historically been the best six months for the stock market.* The six months between May 1 and Nov. 1 has underperformed. Consistent as this seasonal pattern has been, it must be noted that opportunities to trade against these trends have occurred often.  Analysts and the press will make a lot of noise about this phenom in coming months –  be careful.
…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  May 14, a reasonable risk is 18,760. The upside potential is19,225 up from 18,334. That would be welcome. 

    Based on what we have seen in Q1 earnings, the current economic reports and timing of a Fed increase in interest rates, that’s hard to believe  – BUT the potential is there now. It needs a spark.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

COMMENTS:
     The quarterly earnings reporting period is being its usual pain in the butt. The biggest detriment to consistent valuations is the Street’s over emphasis on whether a company hits the projections the Street sets which are mostly based on company guidance.  It really shouldn’t matter is a company “misses” or fails to “beat” by enough to pass muster.  Company management shouldn’t be so short-term focused.

   And by the way,  who is wrong with a “miss” – the company or the Street ?

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

RECOMMENDATION:  InvesTech Research is the finest advisory I have tracked in more than 30 years.  Plain talk, but solidly based indicators, great historical data to back positions.  Monthly, 8 pages, $295/year, worth every penny. Ask for copy (406)862-7777
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
-Q1 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Concern that the U.S. economy is beginning to slump. This week is mixed.

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

……………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

Market Pressing for a Run

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 18,298

S&P 500: 2,129
Nasdaq  Comp.5,078
Russell 2000: 1,257

Tuesday, May 19, 2015   9:14 a.m.

TODAY:

     Both the DJIA and S&P 500 hit new highs yesterday, with impressive strength evident in the Nasdaq Comp. and Russell 2000.

     Tempering unbridled enthusiasm is the fact he market has pressed ahead on so many occasions looking like it wants to run, only to reverse down to the lower end of a trading range.

     The Street is hoping for improved economic indicators this week, especially in housing and the leading economic indicators (Thurs. 10:00 a.m.).

      There is increasing speculation that a recession is looming.  Traditionally, the market turns down several months ahead of the beginning of a recession (likewise for a bull market bottom), so the bears may need to put the horse ahead of the cart before any victory laps.

     Housing Starts for April were announced this morning – up 20.2%, permits up 10.1%.  Starts beat projections by 100%.

     We get the minutes from the FOMC meeting (Wed. 2:00) but no press conference, so don’t expect any major news aside from what the Street creates after parsing every word of the statement.

Fed Chief Janet Yellen speaks at 1:00 Friday.

      Consider two things:

  1. New highs would get headlines in the press and  attract emotional buying.
  2. Expect institutions to do some selling resulting in the possibility of a  rally failure to follow the new highs. Currently, the DJIA is up 5.3% and S&P and Nasdaq Comp. up 2.4% in 7 days.
  3. If the selling is massive, expect a major correction, i.e. the BIG money has been waiting to pull the plug and new highs is their chance to do it at the best price.
  4. If  massive selling  does not show up, a rally failure and sharp technical correction will be reversed in a day or two and a full scale breakout develop.

 

Support today is DJIA: 18,235; S&P 500: 2,122; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,065. 

     Two weeks ago, I  headlined  that the month of May will be a crossroads where the market will move decidedly up or down, breaking out of the  three month trading range, roughly (DJIA 17,600 – 18,200; S&P 500: 2,040 – 2,120; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,850 – 5,100).

ALERTALERTALERT

     The six months period between Nov. 1 and May 1 has historically been the best six months for the stock market.* The six months between May 1 and Nov. 1 has underperformed. Consistent as this seasonal pattern has been, it must be noted that opportunities to trade against these trends have occurred often.  Analysts and the press will make a lot of noise about this phenom in coming months –  be careful.
…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  May 14, a reasonable risk is 18,760. The upside potential is19,225 up from 18,334. That would be welcome.c 

    Based on what we have seen in Q1 earnings, the current economic reports and timing of a Fed increase in interest rates, that’s hard to believe  – BUT the potential is there now. It needs a spark.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

COMMENTS:
     The quarterly earnings reporting period is being its usual pain in the butt. The biggest detriment to consistent valuations is the Street’s over emphasis on whether a company hits the projections the Street sets which are mostly based on company guidance.  It really shouldn’t matter is a company “misses” or fails to “beat” by enough to pass muster.  Company management shouldn’t be so short-term focused.

   And by the way,  who is wrong with a “miss” – the company or the Street ?

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

RECOMMENDATION:  InvesTech Research is the finest advisory I have tracked in more than 30 years.  Plain talk, but solidly based indicators, great historical data to back positions.  Monthly, 8 pages, $295/year, worth every penny. Ask for copy (406)862-7777

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
-Q1 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Concern that the U.S. economy is beginning to slump. This week is mixed.

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

……………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

Wild Week Possible

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 18,272
S&P 500: 2,122
Nasdaq  Comp.: 5,048
Russell 2000: 1,243

Monday, May 18, 2015   9:06 a.m.

TODAY:

     The DJIA and S&P 500 edged up slightly Friday, the Nasdaq Comp. and Russell 2000 stalled. All had sharp up-moves in recent days.

     The DJIA and S&P 500are at the upper end of a three month trading range outlined below with a breakout possible this week.

      There is increasing speculation that a recession is looming.  Traditionally, the market turns down several months ahead of the beginning of a recession (likewise for a bull market bottom).

     We get several  housing market reports this week and the minutes from the FOMC meeting (Wed. 2:00) but no press conference, so don’t expect any major news aside from what the Street creates after parsing every word of the statement.

Leading Economic Indicators are reported at 10:00 a.m. Thursday, that could have an impact. Fed Chief Janet Yellen speaks at 1:00 Friday.

      Consider two things:

  1. New highs would get headlines in the press and  attract emotional buying.
  2. Expect institutions to do some selling resulting in the possibility of a  rally failure to follow the new highs. Currently, the DJIA is up 5.3% and S&P and Nasdaq Comp. up 2.4% in 7 days.
  3. If the selling is massive, expect a major correction, i.e. the BIG money has been waiting to pull the plug and new highs is their chance to do it at the best price.
  4. If  massive selling  does not show up, a rally failure and sharp technical correction will be reversed in a day or two and a full scale breakout develop.

Support today is DJIA: 18,160; S&P 500: 2,112; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,026. 

     Two weeks ago, I  headlined  that the month of May will be a crossroads where the market will move decidedly up or down, breaking out of the  three month trading range, roughly (DJIA 17,600 – 18,200; S&P 500: 2,040 – 2,120; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,850 – 5,100).

ALERTALERTALERT

     The six months period between Nov. 1 and May 1 has historically been the best six months for the stock market.* The six months between May 1 and Nov. 1 has underperformed. Consistent as this seasonal pattern has been, it must be noted that opportunities to trade against these trends have occurred often.  Analysts and the press will make a lot of noise about this phenom in coming months –  be careful.
…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  May 14, a reasonable risk is 18,760. The upside potential is19,225 up from 18,334 ! That would be a 5.3% move from yesterday’s close.  This would have to be the breakout from the 3-month trading range !!!

   

    Based on what we have seen in Q1 earnings, the current economic reports and timing of a Fed increase in interest rates, that’s hard to believe  – BUT the potential is there now. It needs a spark.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

COMMENTS:
     The quarterly earnings reporting period is being its usual pain in the butt. The biggest detriment to consistent valuations is the Street’s over emphasis on whether a company hits the projections the Street sets which are mostly based on company guidance.  It really shouldn’t matter is a company “misses” or fails to “beat” by enough to pass muster.  Company management shouldn’t be so short-term focused.

   And by the way,  who is wrong with a “miss” – the company or the Street ?

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

RECOMMENDATION:  InvesTech Research is the finest advisory I have tracked in more than 30 years.  Plain talk, but solidly based indicators, great historical data to back positions.  Monthly, 8 pages, $295/year, worth every penny. Ask for copy (406)862-7777

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
-Q1 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Concern that the U.S. economy is beginning to slump. This week is mixed.

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

……………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

Blow Out …. or Blow Off ?

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 18,252
S&P 500: 2,121
Nasdaq  Comp.: 5,050
Russell 2000: 1,245

Friday, May 15, 2015   8:52 a.m.

TODAY:
Yesterday was a very positive day in line with projections and the potential for new all-time highs for the DJIA (18,288) and S&P 500: 2,125 today. As you can see, these two blue chip averages(indexes) are at the upper end of a three month trading range outlined below.

      Two things:

  1. New highs would get headlines in the press and  attract emotional buying.
  2. Expect institutions to do some selling resulting in the possibility of a  rally failure to follow the new highs. Currently, the DJIA is up 5.3% and S&P and Nasdaq Comp. up 2.4% in 7 days.
  3. If the selling is massive, expect a major correction, i.e. the BIG money has been waiting to pull the plug and new highs is their chance to do it at the best price.
  4. If  massive selling c does not show up, a rally failure and sharp technical correction will be reversed in a day or two and a full scale breakout develop.

Support today is DJIA: 18,288; S&P 500: 2,114; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,026.   

     Two weeks ago, I  headlined  that the month of May will be a crossroads where the market will move decidedly up or down, breaking out of the  three month trading range, roughly (DJIA 17,600 – 18,200; S&P 500: 2,040 – 2,120; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,850 – 5,100).

ALERTALERTALERT

     The six months period between Nov. 1 and May 1 has historically been the best six months for the stock market.* The six months between May 1 and Nov. 1 has underperformed. Consistent as this seasonal pattern has been, it must be noted that opportunities to trade against these trends have occurred often.  Analysts and the press will make a lot of noise about this phenom in coming months –  be careful.
…………………………………………………………………………………

My Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of  May 14, a reasonable risk is 18,760. The upside potential is19,225 up from 18,334 ! That would be a 5.3% move from yesterday’s close.  This would have to be the breakout from the 3-month trading range !!!
       Based on what we have seen in Q1 earnings, the current economic reports and timing of a Fed increase in interest rates, that’s hard to believe  – BUT the potential is there now. It needs a spark.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
COMMENTS:

     The quarterly earnings reporting period is being its usual pain in the butt. The biggest detriment to consistent valuations is the Street’s over emphasis on whether a company hits the projections the Street sets which are mostly based on company guidance.  It really shouldn’t matter is a company “misses” or fails to “beat” by enough to pass muster.  Company management shouldn’t be so short-term focused.

   And by the way,  who is wrong with a “miss” – the company or the Street ?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

RECOMMENDATION:  InvesTech Research is the finest advisory I have tracked in more than 30 years.  Plain talk, but solidly based indicators, great historical data to back positions.  Monthly, 8 pages, $295/year, worth every penny. Ask for copy (406)862-7777
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS:

-Stock market bubble – China
-Q1 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Concern that the U.S. economy is beginning to slump. This week is mixed.

Note: Source of economic data
For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

……………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk