May to Hold Answer – Up or Down

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 18,035
S&P 500: 2,106
Nasdaq  Comp.5,023
Russell 2000:    1,246

Thursday, April 30, 2015   9:09 a.m.

CONCLUSION:

     The FOMC shed little light yesterday on the timing of an interest rate hike, though the ugly Q1 GDP report and soft employment numbers suggest a hike won’t come until later in the year.

     A break out of the  three month trading range, roughly (DJIA 17,600 – 18,200; S&P 500: 2,040 – 2,115; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,845 – 5,050) will depend on revised earnings and corporate guidance  projections going forward.

     While Q1 earnings have put a damper on stocks, the Street’s negativity may be overdone.  The quarter looks more like a drop of 0.2 percent, down from 3.1 percent a month ago.

     If the Street sees a robust rebound, expect an upside breakout.  Otherwise, it looks like the sideways trading range will continue, even trend down over the summer months.

ALERT:

     The six months period between Nov. 1 and May 1 has historically been the best six months for the stock market.* The six months between May 1 and Nov. 1 has underperformed. Consistent as this seasonal pattern has been, it must be noted that opportunities to trade against these trends have occurred often.  Analysts and the press will make a lot of noise about this phenom in coming months –  be careful.
…………………………………………………………………………………

TODAY:

Today’s support: DJIA: 17,971;  S&P 500: 2,098;  Nasdaq Comp.: 4,998

Today’s resistance: DJIA: 18,118;  S&P 500: 2,115; Nasdaq Comp.:5,054


Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies
     On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of April 17, a reasonable risk was 17,687; more extreme risk 17,500; and the upside potential: 18,157.   The DJIA peaked at 18,175 yesterday prior to a selloff that started in early trading.

     NEW: As of yesterday’s close (Apr. 27) my new calculations are:  Reasonable risk: 17,887; more extreme risk: 17,640; and near-term upside: 18,334 (a new high)

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
-Q1 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Concern that the U.S. economy is beginning to slump. This week is mixed.

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

……………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bulls Pressing for New Highs

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 18,110
S&P 500: 2,114
Nasdaq  Comp.5,055
Russell 2000:    1,259
Wednesday, April 29, 2015   8:09 a.m.

CONCLUSION:
     Yesterday’s rebound after an early sell off  indicates another attempt is in the offing to break out of the  three month trading range, roughly (DJIA 17,600 – 18,200; S&P 500: 2,040 – 2,115; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,845 – 5,050) that has contained stock prices.  While the Russell 2000 had been in an uptrend throughout this period, it too reversed a spike down Tuesday. 

     The Fed will disclose minutes from its FOMC meeting at 2:00 pm, but no press conference is scheduled, so odds are no change in policy.

    With Q1 results as a base for analysis, projections and guidance for coming quarters will be pondered by analysts and money managers.

     Expectations for soft Q1 earnings have been a drag for weeks, but that may be changing, as projections are not panning out as negative as originally thought.
   If the Street starts to see an earnings  rebound in the second half of the year with a possible bounce in oil prices and slide in the U.S. dollar not penalizing big-name stocks, we will get a sizable breakout and  run.

ALERT:

The six months period between Nov. 1 and May 1 has historically been the best six months for the stock market.* The six months between May 1 and Nov. 1 has underperformed. Consistent as this seasonal pattern has been, it must be noted that opportunities to trade against these trends have occurred often.  Analysts and the press will make a lot of noise about this phenom in coming months –  be careful.
…………………………………………………………………………………

TODAY: Down at the open. Should try to find support at DJIA: 18,050; S&P 500: 2,109; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,040. Failing that, the next support is DJIA: 18,006; S&P500: 2,103; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,027.
…………………………………………………………………………………….
     Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of April 17, a reasonable risk was 17,687; more extreme risk 17,500; and the upside potential: 18,157.   The DJIA peaked at 18,175 yesterday prior to a selloff that started in early trading.

     NEW: As of yesterday’s close (Apr. 27) my new calculations are:  Reasonable risk: 17,887; more extreme risk: 17,640; and near-term upside: 18,334 (a new high)

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

-Stock market bubble – China
-Q1 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Concern that the U.S. economy is beginning to slump. This week is mixed.

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

……………………………………………………………………………………

*Stock Trader’s Almanac

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Setback for Bulls, But……………..

Investor's  first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 18,037
S&P 500: 2,108
Nasdaq  Comp.5,060:
Russell 2000:    1,252
Monday, April 27, 2015   8:35 a.m.

CONCLUSION:
     Looks like the market is still  locked in a three month trading range, roughly (DJIA 17,600 – 18,200; S&P 500: 2,040 – 2,115; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,845 – 5,050).  While the Russell 2000 had been in an uptrend throughout this period, it too is hitting headwinds.   

     The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. broke out briefly last week and again yesterday only to get hit by sellers.  This is typical market action when stocks are locked in a consolidation pattern.

     Earnings and Fed interest rate angst are the culprits, as well as maneuvering by highly leveraged institutions.
   Expectations for soft Q1 earnings have been a drag for weeks, but that may be changing, as projections are not panning out as negative as originally thought..
   If the Street starts to see an earnings  rebound in the second half of the year with a possible bounce in oil prices and slide in the U.S. dollar not penalizing big-name stocks, we will get a sizable breakout and a run in small company stocks.
…………………………………………………………………………………

TODAY: Down at the open. Should try to find support at DJIA: 17,982; S&P 500: 2,103; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,027. Failing that, the next support is DJIA: 17,887; S&P500: 2,093; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,017
…………………………………………………………………………………….
     Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     As of April 17, a reasonable risk was 17,687; more extreme risk 17,500; and the upside potential: 18,157.   The DJIA peaked at 18,175 yesterday prior to a selloff that started in early trading.

     NEW: As of yesterday’s close (Apr. 27) my new calculations are:  Reasonable risk: 17,887; more extreme risk: 17,640; and near-term upside: 18,334 (a new high)

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS:
Greece is again at risk of default.
-Yemen chaos may be cooling.
-Stock market bubble – China
-Q1 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Concern that the U.S. economy is beginning to slump.

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

 

Break Out ? Break Down ?

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open

DJIA: 18,080
S&P 500: 2,117
Nasdaq  Comp.:5,092
Russell 2000:    1,267
Monday, April 27, 2015   9:03 a.m.

CONCLUSION:

   Changes in projections and guidance for earnings going forward will be the driver for stocks near-term. So far, the market has held up better than expected in face of soft Q1 earnings.  That raises the possibility of  any changes upward being a catalyst for the market with the possibility of a blow out.

     Obviously, revisions beyond expectations on the downside would trigger a sell off.  The market is more likely to be surprised with better than with worse expectations in the coming six to 12 months.

     However, just about the time fears of a bump up in interest rates fades, here comes a host of economic reports this week. If good, worries will resurface. If soft, the Fed will remain on the sidelines.  Go to “mam.econoday.com” for a calendar.

FROM FRIDAY’S POST:
   Until last Thursday, the DJIA, S&P 500, the Nasdaq Comp. were locked in a three month trading range  (DJIA 17,600 – 18,200; S&P 500: 2,040 – 2,115; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,845 – 5,040). The Russell 2000 has been in an uptrend throughout this period.

    While the DJIA is still locked in this range, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp., edged to new highs last week. 

     Expect volatility to continue. While the pattern favors the bulls, breakouts are often used to dump stocks, with yet another “shake of the tree” possible.
     Expectations for soft Q1 earnings have been a drag for weeks, but that may be changing, as projections are not panning out as negative as originally thought.
    
A 5.5% drop in Q1 earnings is now looking more like 4.5% according to some Street sources.
      If the Street starts to see an earnings  rebound in the second half of the year with a possible bounce in oil prices and slide in the U.S. dollar not penalizing big-name stocks, we will get a sizable breakout and a run in small company stocks.
     Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

     On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     Currently, a reasonable risk is 17,687; more extreme risk 17,500; and upside potential: 18,157. Any further surge in the DJIA would require an upward adjustment in these “risk” levels.    

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS:
Greece is again at risk of default.
-Yemen chaos may be cooling.
-Stock market bubble – China
-Q1 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Concern that the U.S. economy is beginning to slump.

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

 

Bears on the Ropes ?

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 18,058
S&P 500: 2,112
Nasdaq  Comp.:5,056
Russell 2000:    1,271
Friday, April 24, 2015   9:03 a.m.

CONCLUSION:
   Until yesterday, the DJIA, S&P 500, the Nasdaq Comp. were locked in a three month trading range  (DJIA 17,600 – 18,200; S&P 500: 2,040 – 2,115; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,845 – 5,040). The Russell 2000 has been in an uptrend throughout this period.
    While the DJIA is still locked in this range, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp., edged to new highs yesterday.
    Expect volatility to continue. While the pattern favors the bulls, breakouts are often used to dump stocks, with yet another “shake of the tree” possible.
     Expectations for soft Q1 earnings have been a drag for weeks, but that may be changing, as projections are not panning out as negative as originally thought.
    
A 5.5% drop in Q1 earnings is now looking more like 4.5% according to some Street sources.
      If the Street starts to see an earnings  rebound in the second half of the year with a possible bounce in oil prices and slide in the U.S. dollar not penalizing big-name stocks, we will get a sizable breakout and a run in small company stocks.
     Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:  

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks  a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential over the near-term. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
     Currently, a reasonable risk is 17,687; more extreme risk 17,500; and upside potential: 18,157. Any further surge in the DJIA would require an upward adjustment in these “risk” levels.    

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

Greece is again at risk of default.

-Yemen chaos may be cooling.

-Stock market bubble – China

-Q1 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.

Concern that the U.S. economy is beginning to slump.

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

 

Better-Than-Expected Q1 Earnings ??

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 18,038
S&P 500: 2,107
Nasdaq  Comp.:5,035
Russell 2000:    1,265
Thursday, April 23, 2015   8:40 a.m.

CONCLUSION:
    The DJIA, S&P 500, the Nasdaq Comp.  are still locked in a three month trading range  generally (DJIA 17,600 – 18,200; S&P 500: 2,040 – 2,115; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,845 – 5,040). A breakout on the upside in face of numerous negatives would be very bullish.
    With the exception of the Russell 2000, the three major market averages have failed on three attempts to breakout since early February.
      However, yesterday’s strength indicates the market is poised for a breakout in coming days.
     
While there are a number of negatives clouding the picture, a prospective upgrade in Q1 earnings expectations may be the catalyst for the breakout.
     The Street has been projecting a drop of around 5.5% in Q1 earnings, however that drop is looking more and more like  4.5%.  Currently, earnings of oil-related and international companies are being adversely impacted by a recent plunge  in oil prices and surge in the U.S. dollar. 

Technical Analysis of the 30 DJIA Companies:   

On occasion, I technically analyze each of the 30 DJIA stocks for three near-term levels, a reasonable risk, a more extreme risk, and an upside potential. I add the results of each, then divide by the DJIA “divisor” (0.1498588) to get the DJIA for those levels.
    Currently, a reasonable risk is 17,687; more extreme risk 17,500; and upside potential: 18,157. Any further surge in the DJIA would require an upward adjustment in these “risk” levels.

TODAY: Mixed at the open.  Bulls should enter on weakness.     

KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

Greece is again at risk of default.

-Yemen chaos may be cooling.

-Stock market bubble – China

-Q1 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.

Concern that the U.S. economy is beginning to slump.

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

 

Bulls Ready to Make Their Move ?

Investor’s first readDaily edge before the open
DJIA: 17, 949
S&P 500: 2,097
Nasdaq  Comp.:5,014
Russell 2000:    1,264
Wednesday, April 22, 2015   9:11 a.m.

CONCLUSION:

    Pre-open futures trading suggests a mixed market at the open favoring the bulls.

     My technical analysis of each  of the 30 DJIA stocks indicates a reasonable risk to 17,687, with a more extreme risk to 17,500, but a near-term upside of DJIA 18,157 The upside begins to  hit resistance 18,157.

     A push by the bulls today would challenge the April highs of DJIA 18,169, S&P 500: 2,111; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,024.

      The DJIA, S&P 500, the Nasdaq Comp.  are still locked in a three month trading range  (DJIA 17,600 – 18,200; S&P 500: 2,040 – 2,115; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,845 – 5,040). A breakout on the upside in face of numerous negatives would be very bullish.

     With the exception of the Russell 2000, the three major market averages have failed on three attempts to breakout since early February, so easy does it !

 KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

Greece is again at risk of default.

-Yemen chaos may be cooling.

-Stock market bubble – China

-Q1 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.

Concern that the U.S. economy is beginning to slump.

COMMENTS:

Stock prices continue to be buffeted by a host of issues each having a major impact on stock prices at different times. These include the Fed, Q1 earnings, the Mid-East, economies here and abroad. All this is taking place near-term volatility within a three month trading range of   DJIA 17,600 – 18,200; S&P 500: 2,040 – 2,115; and Nasdaq Comp.: 4,845 – 5,040).

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

 

Burden of Proof Swings to Bears

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 18,034
S&P 500: 2,100
Nasdaq  Comp.:4,994
Russell 2000:    1,264
Tuesday, April 21, 2015   9:11 a.m.

CONCLUSION:

    Pre-open futures trading suggests a rise at the open.

     My technical analysis of each  of the 30 DJIA stocks indicates a reasonable risk to 17,687, with a more extreme risk to 17,500. The upside begins to  hit resistance 18,157; S&P 500: 2,111; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,024

     Market  will try to top the April highs of DJIA 18,169

 KEY EXTERNAL FACTORS: 

Greece is again at risk of default.

-Yemen chaos.

-Stock market bubble – China

-Q1 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.

Concern that the U.S. economy is beginning to slump.

COMMENTS:

Stock prices continue to be buffeted by a host of issues each having a major impact on stock prices at different times. These include the Fed, Q1 earnings, the Mid-East, economies here and abroad. All this is taking place near-term volatility within a three month trading range of   DJIA 17,600 – 18,200; S&P 500: 2,040 – 2,115; and Nasdaq Comp.: 4,845 – 5,040).

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

 

Rally at Open Must Hold

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 17,826
S&P 500: 2,081
Nasdaq  Comp.: 4,931
Russell 2000:    1,251
Monday, April 20, 2015   8:57 a.m.

CONCLUSION:

    Friday’s message was to track the bull’s reaction to selling that showed up prior to the open.  The bulls had been buyers on dips over the last two weeks. A continuance of that pattern  would give  all-time highs a chance in coming weeks.  A no-show would signal a change in  sentiment and a decline to a “comfort” level.

    The DJIA lost 357 points (intraday) by early afternoon, but managed a rally in the final hour of trading. Stability, or a  follow through to yesterday’s  late-day bounce is critical.

    Pre-open futures trading suggests a rise at the open

    The villain this time is Greece’s debt problems, but mixed Q1 earnings and economic reports didn’t help. A potential bubble burst in China’s stock market added some angst along with Yemen’s problems and a spurt in crude oil prices.

    On the positive, is that all these issues suggest the Fed may be slow to raise interest rates. 

    The DJIA, S&P 500, the Nasdaq Comp.  remain locked in a three month trading range  (DJIA 17,600 – 18,200; S&P 500: 2,040 – 2,115; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,845 – 5,040).

     My technical analysis of each  of the 30 DJIA stocks indicates a reasonable risk to 17,687, with a more extreme risk to 17,500.

Today’s “minor” support: DJIA: 17,785; S&P 500: 2,076 ;  Nasdaq Comp.:4,920  

Those levels must hold or the market will test March support  generally at DJIA 17,580 (S&P 500: 2,050; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,860)

    KEY FACTORS: 

Greece is again at risk of default
-Q1 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.
Concern that the U.S. economy is beginning to slump.

COMMENTS:

A rebound in oil prices is a new uncertainty for the Street to adjust to. Expect the three month trading range to be resolved on the upside or downside within three weeks and the move beyond those borders can be dramatic. Least expected is a plunge.

Note: Source of economic data
For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment in keeping with their tolerance for risk

Big Test for Bulls

Investor’s first read Daily edge before the open

DJIA: 18,105
S&P 500: 2,104
Nasdaq  Comp.:5,007
Russell 2000:    1,271
Friday, April 17, 2015   9:07 a.m.

CONCLUSION:

   An assault on the all-time highs of

(DJIA 18,288; S&P 500: 2,119; Nasdaq Comp.: 5,042 will have to wait, as sellers were there  to stop the market in its tracks yesterday after a strong mid-day rally. The Russell 2000 hit a new high on Wednesday, but failed to follow through yesterday.  

   Today’s support is DJIA: 18,025; (S&P 500:2,094; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,965).

   Bear in mind the DJIA, S&P 500, the Nasdaq Comp.  are still locked in a three month trading range  (DJIA 17,600 – 18,200; S&P 500: 2,040 – 2,115; Nasdaq Comp.: 4,845 – 5,040). The bulls had their shot, now it’s the bears turn.

    We should get a good read of how strong the bulls are by their reaction to selling in early trading today.

KEY FACTORS: 

-Q1 earnings for some companies will suffer from U.S. dollar’s strength and plunge in oil prices.
-Market still keyed on the Fed and it’s first bump up in interest rates, which with a slight softening in recent economic reports looks like it may happen later rather than sooner.

Concern that the U.S. economy is beginning to slump.

COMMENTS:

A rebound in oil prices is a new uncertainty for the Street to adjust to. Expect the three month trading range to be resolved on the upside or downside within three weeks and the move beyond those borders can be dramatic. Least expected is a plunge.

Note: Source of economic data

For a weekly economic calendar and good recap of  indicators, go to mam.econoday.com.

George Brooks
Investor’s first read
A Game-On Analysis, LLC publication

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Investor’s first read, is a Game-On Analysis, LLC publication for which George Brooks is sole owner, manager and writer.  Neither Game-On Analysis, LLC, nor George  Brooks  is  registered as an investment advisor.  Ideas expressed herein are the opinions of the writer, are for informational purposes, and are not to serve as the sole basis for any investment decision. References to specific securities should not be construed  as particularized or as investment advice as recommendations that you or any investors purchase or sell these securities on their own account. Readers are expected to assume full responsibility for conducting their own research pursuant to investment decisions in keeping with their tolerance for risk.